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Forex Forum Archive for 10/31/2007

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LA FM_Fans 23:49 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Morning all..

Hello FM, if I sell gbp/jpy here... where should i place my stop?
Thanks in advanced! @[email protected]

Stockholm za 23:31 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   

Today’s data was already over priced in .
Tomorrow’s data will show the reality of its impact.
[ Noted – “the Fed has yet to come up with something that would inspire a dollar bounce. - so the Fed today bought more insurance and more time” – TK ]

USA BAY 23:06 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Just felt a second earthquake in SF bay area since last night

Syd .. 22:20 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 22:17 yes my feeling exactly

Rio Tinto Analistafx 22:17 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 21:28 GMT October 31, 2007
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said Wednesday that interest rate hikes can take "quite some years" to impact the economy.

Syd...wow!

Mtl JP 22:13 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
L.A. R. King 19:30 / your Q reminds me of a Coke commercial. (I'd Like to Buy The World a Coke opening line: "I'd like to teach the world to sing in perfect harmony.)

Trading is based exactly on the opposite to "harmony": it' s the diffrence of views that compells some to buy what others want to sell and <->. Otherwise: there would be no market.

Philadelphia Caba 21:48 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
* Baltic Dry Index - In a sign that the commodity bubble may burst, the Baltic Dry index fell 230 pts today to close at 10,656 and biggest fall for the year after continual record highs in recent sessions; This move defies the gains to
record highs in oil and gold today and could signal a turn for commodities, which would be bearish for AUD, NZD, CAD & ZAR
(thomson)

Toronto tn 21:36 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 20:26 GMT October 31, 2007

Have read of a 1957 low at 106.14 cad/usd, which I guess equates to 9386, though for obvious reasons have never seen a chart that far back.

GENEVA DS 21:29 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
HK RF

what euphoria ?... just wondering... we are all in the same film... flexibilty still name of the game, but CAD had a long way to go up against EUR,CHF and JPY.... look at very long term chart.... it is more a USD-Problem... for many years to come I guess... all best to you... good night..

Syd .. 21:28 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens said Wednesday that interest rate hikes can take "quite some years" to impact the economy.

Stevens, answering questions to an Australian university audience, said the full effect of interest rate changes is "years into the future" and that "the lags are long" for rates to damp demand.

"It takes quite some time for the full effects to be felt," he said.

The governor was responding to a question from a member of the audience on the economic impact of interest rate changes.

HK [email protected] 21:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Euro.

1.4550 is the next target. That is a place to take profit and wait for a pullback.

Syd .. 21:06 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Fed statement substantially raises hurdle for further rate cuts, says ANZ Bank senior economist Khoon Goh; "In short, the Fed message is don't expect the Fed to keep bailing you out anymore," referring to financial companies that have suffered heavy losses due to exposure to troubled U.S. subprime mortgage sector. Says policymakers continue to worry about inflation risks, especially those coming from higher energy, commodity prices. Adds statement implies Fed "thinks it has done enough, and will sit back and assess things."

Rivonia PipPirate 20:55 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
The U.S. dollar vs CAD touched a record low previously reached on August 21, 1957

Napoli DC 20:33 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 19:35
maybe someone also got two wives at present
..)

HK [email protected] 20:32 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 20:26 GMT October 31, 2007

Euphoria is usually a sign of turning points.

You may consult an astrologist this time.

HK [email protected] 20:29 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
The only thing which looks safe now is selling Jpy against USD for 115.60 or even 116.

But what I observe TA is not always followed with that pair.



GENEVA DS 20:26 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
is this correct?, we are just seeing a new 100 year low in USDCAD ?? gl

Lahore FM 20:26 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
BAY,nzd back in uptrend.eurnzd to fall back to 1.84/85 and then rise.

USA BAY 20:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE M,

Could you kindly comment on nzd/usd and eur/nzd pls. tia

Toronto tn 20:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 12:50 GMT October 31, 2007
Toronto tn 06:10 GMT October 31, 2007
offering eur/cad 3790/3810, stop 3838. Looking for 3680 as a meaningful low.

Took half back at 3765, stop at 3800 for the rest. Never know with the fed and month end flows taking turns smacking this thing.
------

Closed rest at 3650.

austin mw 20:09 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
PAR 19:17 GMT October 31, 2007
Bernake inspired by Cheney s preemptive strikes keeps printing like they used to do in Latin America .

Par, we have become Latin America!!!

Lahore FM 20:09 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
240 reached on gbpjpy.dips to 237.50 and 23800 mayb be bought for further rises to 243.00.

PAR 19:40 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
After outsourcing labor out of Europe, the strong Euro starts to outsource consumption out of Europe. Better for european consumers to go shopping in USA, Japan, China,Singapore,Dubai,Hong Kong,Qatar etc as long as it is not in eurozone . Thats why German retail sales were down almost 3 % .

warsaw TOMi 19:35 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
anyone who sold his wife for shorting audusd at least got rid of the old lady, time for new one..:-)
gl/gt

USA BAY 19:35 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
LDN Mahmood,

Just do your own trading. At least Zeus posts his trades, I dont see you doing that.

Bon Air VA Dennis 19:35 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
"Looks like noone except for a few are left in the USD camp :))"

yep and when everyone is on one side ...
;-8

Stockholm za 19:34 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   

fwiw...
Just leave it alone …they come and go !!!
GV archive does not lie..
Over the many many years of this forum, there is always some one that is over aggressive to achieve the FCA. Or just plain out tries to indoctrinate the forum with their illusion.
Or do their utmost best to make this forum look like an uneducated environment.
Sure you could remember Bali Jane and the crew -
Enjoy the fun and be entertained...

EUR/USD = 100 pips of noise..

quito_ecuador_valdez 19:32 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
The significant thing I see erupting from USD run past 1.45 EUR/USD is that an important psychological barrier has been broken. Once psychological resistance breaks on a pair it's clear to proceed given all other previous momentum/trend factors stay in play. I see no change in the later. Right now mkt positions for the long haul..think it's going to haul north still. If EZ doesn't like cheap USDs in earnest all Frankfurt has to do is print as much fake money and blow it as USA does & things equalize, ROFL. Chart is still in whipsawgasm so I'm flat on platy until I sence calmer waters. Wise is to wait for what I suspect: a nice dip to the 1.43's or at least 1.44's in a week or so. Believe me, for long term I really don't position unless I feel REAL good about it. I'm not a compulsive trader.

As to the remark about Zeus: a reminder that posts are merely trading ideas & not targets for food fights (not Friday yet). If someone disagrees with a trading idea then limit it please to considerate and productive commentary. ;^>


If you want to see something really scary, check gold. Not spot..futures.

dc CB 19:32 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Apparently comspiracists are not the only ones wondering about the GS's Washington branch at Treasury.
from briefing.com. lol.................................

Goldman Sachs: SEC looking into co's Q2 results - NY Post.
NY Post reports the SEC is looking into whether the co cheated its way to enormous profits - even as the rest of the financial industry was suffering through a massive downturn. The central issue, as best as they can determine, is whether Goldman had any insight that other cos didn't have during the May and June period when subprime mortgage securities were deteriorating in value. One person who discussed the matter with the SEC says the investigator seemed curious as to whether the investment banking side of Goldman's business could have tipped off the trading side of that brokerage co to the extent of the problems that would soon be encountered by Bear and others. And there also seemed to be a philosophical discussion as to whether that would constitute insider trading even if there was such a leak. The author's sense is that the SEC's interest is preliminary. The same person who spoke with the SEC's New York office said the commission also seemed interested in the relationship between Goldman and The President's Working Group on Financial Markets. They also assume that much of what The Working Group accomplishes is done through Goldman, where Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson had been chairman before heading Treasury.

L.A. R. King 19:30 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   

can't we all just get along?

tartu kuues 19:29 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
orlaidy...its time to buy usd big time...y

tartu kuues 19:29 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
orlaidy...its time to buy usd big time...y

London NYAM 19:18 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
FM! the golden boy you hit that GBPJPY 240 on the button at 237 and below. Ill have what he's having.
Alimin// I think the real battle is between 1.4500 and 1.4550. But ill leave it to the guys using other peoples money. under 1.4425 then the egg is cracking but until then: would you like them sunny side up?

FW CS 19:17 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 19:08 GMT October 31, 2007
Jeez o Pete leave the Zeus guy alone. He has made some pretty good calls too. I am not keeping count but he has made more good calls then wrong calls by a factor of 2 I think. I don't agree with his views right now but he at least posts his trades for all to see and is concrete in his views so at least respect that.
Don't concern yourself too much you are the master of your own account. Concentrate on making money. If you are bearish $ then sell it and make some pips

PAR 19:17 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Bernake inspired by Cheney s preemptive strikes keeps printing like they used to do in Latin America .

Lahore FM 19:12 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
lolzz...Nyam Moon!you guys enjoying urself there.

gold futures hit 800 dolls.

Makassar Alimin 19:12 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
NYAM looks like market is hesitating taking out 1.45, any flow info?

London NYAM 19:09 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Ah well a man can dream of the moon, DS does.
Back to the GV pub. Really should have a Pub forum Jay. Done with the slackitude.

Alaska Moon 19:06 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 19:01 GMT October 31, 2007
========
Well....heck.... I'm not !! I am an OLD man......
As I said before, some info on the forum, but a LOT of entertainment LOL
Moon

London NYAM 19:01 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Moon. If you were a girl id kiss you.

London NYAM 19:00 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
im removing my contras Eur and GBP. its not over. Sorry Z. CAD ill keep its small and im lowering stop o under .9400. Illconcentrate on that, the dollar is a dead cat bounce for a while yet. Equador: Je ne regret rien.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:55 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Right below &EURO; 1.45 some profit taking (have to admit to a scalp myself!) will curb the flow but methinks the trend will continue. I'll buy a dip. I might regret closing the scalp the way it looks.

PAR 18:54 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Unfortunately rate cut came too late for Merrill s O Neal ,at least other Wall street Ceo are saved and can keep on golfing .

Alaska Moon 18:52 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 18:45 GMT October 31, 2007
=======
LOL !!!

London NYAM 18:45 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
guess you got filled now Z.

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:42 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke's speachtells me that any big boys are going to now do what they wanted to do, pursue direction they were going before the fed announcement. Now the trick is to know what direction the freight train was intending to go. Chartwise it's easy, north for EUR/USD. A fair amt of whipsaw in play here, mkt kneejerk...but trend is USD tank.

Makassar Alimin 18:40 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
i believe usd is entering oversold region now, however take it for what it is worth, oversold is temporary state, does not necessarily imply a change of trend, time to reduce short usd position bit by bit

Van jv 18:36 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
politically correct, pleasing those who count---

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:34 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
From what I just read on Fedspeak a few mins ago...the upside inflation risks are balanced by the downside risks to growth. Means they seem to be happy with status quo for now after this cut.

melbourne DC 18:34 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Look at that audusd !!!

USA Zeus 18:32 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Ok- Stopping posts for now- quota met. plol

Happy Day!

USA Zeus 18:31 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Cover more oil 94.14 Leave remaining at b/e

USA Zeus 18:30 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Cover oil 94.31

madrid mm 18:28 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
it is taking some time to digest isn t it ?

I definitally need to learn to trade gold 8-)

USA Zeus 18:28 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
reshort oil 94.61

Bangkok FUA 18:28 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
hi zeus:
nice entry point for scalp ..

NYC NYC3 18:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
much thx!!

jkt rick 18:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
NYC NYC3 18:22 GMT October 31, 2007
if you want to know where is yen is heading, study eur yen....all the answers will be revealed.

London NYAM 18:26 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Z//there was no pop to that level (yet).

PAR 18:26 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
$ 100 crude oil before next Fed and discount rate cut in december. BP will love it .

USA Zeus 18:25 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Covered some gold 785.90
LOL

NYC NYC3 18:23 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
disagree, bad for Us shares,
.25 says FEd isn't in the bis of bailouts,

USA Zeus 18:23 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Short GBP/USD on the pop 2.0817

NYC NYC3 18:22 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
good with that out of the way its back to
individual mkt realities.

IMO yen did a ii of III wave top and will start down big time

PAR 18:21 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
As usual good for Us shares, bad for Us dollar. A typical Bernanke move .

madrid mm 18:20 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
..Now we just have to wait a little bit b4 some moves... I hope 8-)

I remember this old trader telling us " the 1st move is always the wrong move" whatever that means 8-)

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:20 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Let charts stabilize to see what mkt does with Bernanke's words/aftermath before positioning unless you like Casino FX. Personally I'll buy an end of day dip on EUR/USD.

USA Zeus 18:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Covered some more crude 93.37.
Hold remaining at b/e

London NYAM 18:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
my limit hit on short usdjpy at 114.98 mqakes up for that awful gbpusd call. 2.0732 needs to hold to mount 2.08. Thanks Ben.

warsaw TOMi 18:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
took profit on short g/j at 23870

madrid mm 18:18 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
it is haloween time ...

trick or treat ladies and gentlemen ?

8-)

USA Zeus 18:18 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
covered some crude 93.75
Covered some SP 500 shorts 1536.25

Syd .. 18:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   

FOMC Voted 9-1 For Fed Funds Rate Cut; Hoenig Dissented
Fed Cuts Discount Rate By 0.25-Pt To 5.00%
Fed Cuts Fed Funds Rate 0.25-Pt To 4.50%; Growth, Inflation Risks Balanced

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:15 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
people interpreting Bernanke as reluctant to cut?

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:15 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
people interpreting Bernanke as reluctant to cut?

USA BAY 18:15 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
fed cut 25 bp

London NYAM 18:12 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Nice trick KL. Got my finger all sweaty.

KL KL 18:11 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
No Rate Cut.......

LOL.....that is my view anyway....crude above 94....goog 700......


Bernenke says People should cut spending on unnecessary stuff, be less materialistic first before he cuts rate....time for all to be discipline and manage their own finances!!!

Van jv 18:10 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Chills & Thrills of Halloween--
Fed is confused

quito_ecuador_valdez 18:10 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
US growth up over 3%.

PAR 18:06 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Fed cut will be sold as a peemptive move against a non existent recession .

London NYAM 18:05 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Yes D but i see no reason to start from these levels. 2.0835 will be really rough for GBP as will 1.4540 for eur so limits are set out there for me.

Bon Air VA Dennis 18:01 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Aziz, are you thinking Cable is a lurking imploder?

USA Zeus 17:59 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
So now the strategy is to add shorts on EUR/USD and GBP/USD on any reactionary pop for what could be a great reversal. Name of the game is gearing, leverage and risk. I'm accepting A LOT of it.

Covered some gold shorts 793.50 to help in such efforts.

Cheers!

PAR 17:58 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Since Bernanke became Fed president dollar has been a one way bet .

Stockholm za 17:56 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   

fwiw...
Your stop lost is getting hit in 25 min......

Bon Air VA Dennis 17:56 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:49 GMT

stocks will close higher if the Fed cuts rates, period!

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:55 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Agreed MTL on printing more crap paper $. The plan is to destroy literally all individual countries' propriatary cncy's for universal unity w/ EUR worldwide. I don't have to like it (I don't) but I do have to accept it. Euro will force out other cncy's in time 1 by 1 on bascially buying said countries on the cheap after their cncy's are basically destroyed (see crap cncy) & forced to be destroyed by their own CBs/Treasuries, in a death struggle effort to save them. Ironic. Therefore from strictly an FX view, it seems (?!?!) logical to keep a EUR/XXX long or XXX/EUR short always in the running or the equivalent, or cash in EUR based investments for a certain % of your portfolio.

On to trading. .25 Fed cut priced in but USD still in sell mode, waiting for statement "wording" or Q&A, pundits & shear mkt response. Big boys are waiting, we have to figure what they are waiting to do...sell or buy USD. I think sell more..so a trigger would be -.25 or -.50. Wording by Fed only reinforces or at bet staves off temporarily the obvious trend of USD selloff. More oil deals & other business use EUR, lessening demand for USD that was used B4. Asia is the largest protective force supporting USD.

If you have USD in sell mode at announcement (don't recommend a possie til announcement!) & FOMC surprises you with no cut and your possie goes neg, don't kneejerk-panic & close..hold on...you'll see neg for a couple days possibly but there is no way that with so much weight (and waning support from Asia) on USD that it can stop selling long term. No sence taking a panic loss when you can net a win later on the same play. We will have to see a whale of a lot of growth to USA econ that I think it's capable of nowdays & a "stop the presses" order; both to me are dreams only. I'm flat on the platy 'cept for a CHF CD at the bank.

I'd keep bets small at this point but if a .25bp cut...psychological barrier resistance alone waits at 1.45. If .50 then it breaks 1.45 almost instantly. Have a buy order for EUR/USD in force if you like rather than trying to place a possie because platys get congested at announcements.

GENEVA DS 17:53 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
PARABOLIC RISE to continue after fed action tonight... fire is on...

USA Zeus 17:52 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Covered a few barrels at 94.16 to afford some FX bets.
LOL

USA Zeus 17:50 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
One last nibble short GBP/USD 2.0797.

Ok- All set for some action.

PAR 17:49 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Stocks will close strong due to month end window dressing .

USA Zeus 17:46 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Selloff in equities likely. Short SP 500 contracts 1548.50. Will ad more if higher.

Giant balls today.

USA Zeus 17:43 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Short gold contracts 796.60. To add more if possible in 3 mor e slices to go with others.

NYC ET 17:43 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, tell us when you trade in your clothes for a barrel around your waist. GL

USA BAY 17:41 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Thanks Nyam. Have a good one.

USA Zeus 17:41 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Short crude oil last hedge at 94.56

USA Zeus 17:39 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Added more crude oil shorts 94.47.
Will add one more time if higher.

USA Zeus 17:37 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Added crude oil shorts 94.47

USA Zeus 17:36 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Short crude oil 94.33

GENEVA DS 17:30 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Crude oil up 5.25 USD from the lows... rising by the minute... hope everybody has filled the tank at home.... otherwise, run fast to the next shopping mall and buy some pull-overs for this winter.... prices will go up there as well very fast, if CHINA needs to revalue its YUAN.... gl

PAR 17:30 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Jim Roger says that " Helicopter Ben " will keep printing money till the USA runs out of tree s .

St. Annaland Bob 17:25 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
if Jim Rogers has a point with his latest observations and calls regarding the banking and financial houses, then the terms BANK & FINANCIAL will get redefined and their value too.

London NYAM 17:20 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Ahh i forgot to mention that i am still long dollar vs Canadian and got limit filled at .9500 so i guess not all dollar longs off the table. stops around .9421. Canada is really too close to be doing a nut job on the us currency just yet.
BAY see where you are going with this. pepper small shorts between now and 121/122 for 116 looks viable.

PAR 17:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
That a strong Euro is bringing down prices in Europe is an illusion. A strong Euro has been hurting business sentiment and especially European exports to the fast growing markets in the far east. Prices in Europe have been moving up faster than anywhere else because the trade has been expanding its margins and parallel imports into Europe are supercomplicated if not impossible .

quito_ecuador_valdez 17:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
My platform stat reports:
USD/CHF, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, being longed by from 61% to 80% of the platform's traders and EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD are all being longed by about 60% it's traders. It doesn't mean for instance that USD/CHF must therefore be SHORTED by the remainder (39%).

GBP/USD shorted by about 40% of its traders
EUR/USD shorted by about 37% of its traders
EUR/GBP shorted by about 25% of its traders

Not suggesting copy cat trades, just intersting data on thousands of traders' positions and no I can't mention platform names here.

EUR/USD makes up about 25% of the positions, USD/JPY about 14% of them, USD/CAD, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF & GBP/USD about 10%-11% each. The rest occupy the rest.

<><><>Chuck<><><>

Mtl JP 17:08 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 16:50 / IF the "money" were not printed, no-one could pay what is currently being paid for barrel of crude. INFLATION is not a function of input costs, rather of printing more crap-paper than a productive economy can handle. THAT is how you see price-inflation manifest itself at the pump or grocery shelf.

Mtl JP 17:03 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
See how the FED interventionists next assess themselves and their collective (I vizualize seals clapping or NKorean parlamentarians "voting") wisdom and perception of "impaired functioning of financial markets might persist for some time or possibly worsen, with negative implications for economic activity. In order to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the economy that might otherwise arise". as "all members agreed that a rate cut of 50 basis points at this meeting was the most prudent course of action" - Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee September 18

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:56 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
tks Atlanta, good goin'!

Gen dk 16:54 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Atlanta South 16:52 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus & Valdez
Zeus thanks for your views. I have a very small short postion
in the E/$ @ this time from 4464, but am not really sure I should have taken that trade. I do hold the view that there will be a small retracement, but beyond that not sure. Short term for me now when trading E/$.

Valdez it is always good to read your views & comments. I guess I should have stated I had been short $/Cad for sometime as I have only shorted E/$ on retracements while maintaining longs postions along the way since the 4171 area.
Have stayed short $/CAD off & on for several months now.

Tks & gt.


quito_ecuador_valdez 16:50 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
higher oil/energy=higher costs for manufacturing/materials & higher transportation costs = inflation circle. OPEC raises oil, raises inflation, hits economies. If you want to hit the world you raise oil. Inflation doesn't = good times, right now it's stagflation...CBs worst nightmare. The only way out I see if for a miracle to happen: USA's + other countries' vast untapped oil should be nationalized, developed, sold cheap (never happen - oil pigs rule) or alternative energy tech fastly developed and manufactured (starting to do now) to get off oil. Otherwise $100+ oil will cause/force CBs to act in such ways as to actually destroy their currencies (so "single currency" EUR can rule).
A Fed rate chop of -.25bp priced in my now. Charts will reflect wordings or a surprize of .50bp like last time...& wordings can be mumbojumbo coin flip "dahh..what's he saying?".

NYC NYC3 16:50 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
neitherhere nor there,
soros net had made many billions, others lost that to him.

Hong Kong YH 16:49 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/picking_tops_and_bottoms/USDJPY__Preparing_for_the_Plunge_1193844133702.html

please take a look.

USA BAY 16:46 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Can you pls take a look at aud/nzd, thinking of shorting at 1.21/22 for 1.15xx. tia

London NYAM 16:41 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Z//I agree we get a fierce reversal at some point but that point is a big '?'. I have a tendency to risk greater capital on top calls then on continuation calls. Top calls are more exciting and they usually move faster. Trend continuations erode impatient temperaments. In any case if you can wether a possible trip to 1.4540-60 then im behind 100%. on gbp i see a potential for 2.0835 as a stall.
Rick. I would sell my wife for the fun of it if it were legal but i would wait until ozzy reaches .9400 at least. Then again maybe id do it just to irritate her.

USA Zeus 16:39 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
NYC NYC3 16:33 GMT October 31, 2007

No one here is too young to read those $10 books. I read 'em among other Soro's facts. Guy made huge bets and won billions on some and lost billions on others. a yard here and a yard there.

For England James.

Vienna, Austria xxl 16:34 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
I mean the mini share trading platform run by the people who's logo you can see at the top of this window.

NYC NYC3 16:33 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Maybe you all are too yoiung to have read Soro's books late 80s.

Do mkts seek equilibrium, as in Econ 201? No, they trend, self-reinforcing themselves, until they just can't go 'o 'mo and reverse.

That theme is sure in action here!

USA Zeus 16:32 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:21 GMT October 31, 2007
NYAM- Thx. Yes indeed in a prior post I mentioned lifting the stops. Made some good gains from some oil and gold trades so decided to be boy plunger and go for it. Can't get outsized returns without the outsized risk and I think this is such an opportunity to test the odds. Right or wrong I do believe the odds are stacked but it obviously takes a series of such opportunities to realize such benefits.


The trend is your friend until it is about to end and I think it gives up the ghost here. I remember that nice equities trend in 1987 until October came along. I also recall the "trend" reversal in October 2002 lest we are quick to forget the endless trend of riches before such a sudden tech wreck.
Risk is risk.

warsaw TOMi 16:31 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
also shorten g/j 23945 stop 23969

warsaw TOMi 16:28 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
jkt rick 16:22 GMT

never had any wife, though have some spare change to spend on 1 mini short at audusd at 9269. stop 9282.gl/gt

NYC NYC3 16:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
odd out here, but I think we have to seperate our rational reasoning from what is happening.

had a client Hot and heavy short BP in 92? along aside of Soros, he fought fought, ran out of $$ and had to close up, just a day before theBP started its crash.

what we think - USD too cheap_ might come to pass, but endless fighting the trend?

who is long GOOG.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:25 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
As far as USD/CAD goes, if there's feeling for stronger USD policy (I suppose fed would have to raise interest???) THEN there would have to be a huge debt payoff. Fed's interest cuts devalue USD so it can't be expected Fed will RAISE interest & stomp the economy again. As to debt payoff, where's $ coming from to do that without printing more & printing more to inflate USD? So I'd like to know opinions of how a stronger USD policy could viably come about.

CAD being a commodity currency largely, and if USD falls more, CAD stays firm...I can only see a continued short.

I know we'll see some record breaking charts. It isn't comfortable because you just don't know where it's going to stop. These are tough times.

NYC NYC3 16:24 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Still too many euro shorts, sentiment just not there for a turn,
need a capitulation phase, 500 pts? then?

Hong Kong YH 16:22 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Did you see all the currencies set another record high again? they already confirmed 0.5% cut

jkt rick 16:22 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
sell wife, use funds to short aud. 0.9265

London NYAM 16:21 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Z//Theoretically if there is a representative sample of the crowd here on GV (and its not cause most people are just voyeurs) you and Atlanta south are the individuals and the dollar bears are the crowd (everyone else). So theory would say you should win out. You had a stop at the 777s on GBPUSd. I take it you lifted it? Since im now on the side-lines all i can do is see theory and reality and the forum-sample. So far it looks dangerous but sell the news is always a vible approach. Good luck!

NYC NYC3 16:21 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
mini share system? sounds like some out the back door
gambler sideshow

USA Zeus 16:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Did not get the pre-FOMC neutral stance I was anticipating making this the prime odds loaded opportunity to load up and use some gearing for a big USD bounce.

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 16:01 GMT October 31, 2007
Hi amigo...you say you have had a short for EUR/USD for some time now? Care to share your views as to why? Tks.;^)

USA Zeus 16:15 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 16:01 GMT October 31, 2007
Thx for the kind words. Well it looks like a blowoff top here for E/U and GBP/USD. Call it a buy the rumor sell the news theory. I think that there is a cyclical shift in play now MT and perhaps even longer that the USD is about to cycle into the strong dollar policy. I could be wrong and will take a decent hit if so. Otherwise the reward could be drastically larger. As for USD/CAD indeed it also looks like the cycle is about to work its way around for a reversal. The risk there of course is the geopolitical shock re: oil. But even $20-30 higher oil is containable.



NYC ET 15:52 GMT October 31, 2007
I think it is only a prayer that could push EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher in a meaningful way.

GT! and GL!

Loaded more again. Using a lot more leverage than normal. Sometimes you have to load the wagon when the odds are there. Applied gains from gold and oil and Shorted more EUR/USD 1.4471 and GBP/USD 2.0787

Looks like the buck stops here- Literally!

quito_ecuador_valdez 16:11 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
At some point gentlemen, on any sort of chart, be it rainfall, agriculture or whatever, things "average" in. Regarding USD, the continued tanking will HAVE to do 1 of 2 things. The most likely thing (viewing history alone) is to correct for it's fall. But, #2 thing, "the little voice upstairs" tells me that there's some deep engine rumbles within the U.S. economic system that if not repaired will cause an eroded value basis for USD - a consequential continued fall. It's too complicated to go into here but long term I'm shorting USD. The USA's econ is largely internal, self supporting as such, can't export to compete pricewise (not many countries can) w/ China & other cheap labor cheap currency venues. So once that internal demand for domestic products/services erodes & it may, then USD has little solid base for demand of it.

I feel that in time the USD will have to give way to being replaced with EUR. That to me is an ugly thought for several reasons but it's what I feel is a distinct possibility. The process will involve a period of time (not real soon) of near total USD tank then a "bailout" from replacing what's left with EUROS. That's how you buy USA cheap. That's the plan. Am playing EUR/USD today, seems like a good sport so far LOL.

~~~~Valdez~~~~

Vienna, Austria xxl 16:07 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Has anyone had a problem trading TESCO Plc on the censored Mini Share system?

Atlanta South 16:01 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
I have been short E/$ & $/CAD for sometime now, but have a feeling the E/$ may reverse somewhat in the near term. Having said that, I would appreciate your views on the two mentioned pairs for a period of say until yrs end. We all have our own views & methods of trading & we will all never agree, but I have noticed you can be on the mark a majority of the time. Tks for your views & comments. Gt & good day.

Stockholm za 16:01 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   

GV >>> post id="719210" need to be taken away..

Toronto tn 15:57 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 15:49 GMT October 31, 2007

Clearly you are ill informed. Many Americans spend more on Starbucks lattes than China's annual per capita income. I think they'll be fine.

NYC ET 15:52 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, is that a forecast or a prayer? Seems Fed would have announce no change to see a real reversal??

USA Zeus 15:51 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the final contra USD push before a major reversal. Let's see...

London NYAM 15:50 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 15:41//I think the two will go hand in hand. Schlesinger's political cycles seem to show a clear reversion to isolationism is due. On a an FX note, the defiance of a weak hand would show itself in silly sloganism. I think these things are linked. Implication: I'm glad i took my long dollars off the table in that dip post ADP. Not that there isnt another opportunity for a short sometime soon, im just increasingly skeptical that that time is indeed nigh. Gt to you.

HK [email protected] 15:49 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:43 GMT October 31, 2007
ECONOMY

A strong euro is a sign of Europe's political deficiency
----------------------------------------------------------
Never mind politics; Meanwhile the european enjoy their time at low low prices, while the americans are facing a very cold winter in their very own houses with lot of political power.

PAR 15:43 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
ECONOMY

A strong euro is a sign of Europe's political deficiency
Concerned about the constant rise of the euro facing the dollar, Pierre-Antoine Delhommais, sees an indication of Europe's lack of political weight. "If the euro is so strong today, it is mainly, paradoxically, because Europe is politically inexistent, incapable of making itself heard on the international stock exchange and of opposing the will of the White House. ... And yet, for Americans, the only European monetary path that counts is, because of the deutschemark's prestigious past, that of Berlin. Paris's one is viewed as exotic ... . Above all, the White House is aware that the real 'Mr. Euro' is none other than the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Jean-Claude Trichet who, not content to merely pilot interest rates is also requesting the management of exchange rates, with as a consequence, the euro, a unique case in the world, will become an apolitical currency in the hands of an equally apolitical institution."
Le Monde (France)

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:41 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:33 GMT

possibly Aziz, but given that we have a general election in about a years time, it could be a harbinger of an isolationist/protectionist movement

London NYAM 15:33 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
CNBC's tag line is now "Keeping America Great" with a big $ in the background. Sounds like early stages of sentimentalist nonsense prior to panic-stations.

HK [email protected] 15:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Philly JS 15:19 GMT October 31, 2007

HI!!!!!!!!!!

The party is over eating and drinking on borrowing/account of the world for years. Now the owner of the restaurant boots you out!!!

Good things of this kind do not last forever. SORRY

Hong Kong YH 15:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:52 GMT October 31, 2007

you are so support USD, still shorting EUR and GBP?

Philly JS 15:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Hello NYC...have to agree with PAR that rising oil prices will hit our middle class. I'm middle class and we turn the heat/AC on only at the last minute. Our house is small and I need to be fanatical about turning off lights,TVs,etc. Most people we know are feeling the pinch...not struggling..but wary...except for the wealthy ones.

Van jv 15:17 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
US want Strong USD ->USD/JPY + .77

mumbai san 15:05 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
bullions where to from here?

GENEVA DS 14:55 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
even SWISS chocolate prices on the rise.... watch out...

Van jv 14:54 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Oil, Gold, Food -all up -FED view/action?

Shenzhen CP 14:53 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 11:53 GMT October 31, 2007
GBP & crosses not not looking friendly for Euro's moon shot..

where are the preferred entry levels for seller? TIA

GENEVA DS 14:52 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
plus 5 bucks from the lows at 8880---

USA Zeus 14:52 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Oil +2.80

USA Zeus 14:52 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Now let's see if the USD bears ease before FOMC time. Look for EUR/USD and GBP/USD to decline from here.

Happy Day!

GENEVA DS 14:51 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
oil plus 5 bucks today...

Van jv 14:51 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
OIL +3.04

Hong Kong YH 14:49 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Buddy, any view of GBP/USD and GBP/JPY? Please comment

USA Zeus 14:46 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Oil should ease.

london phil 14:36 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
oil shot up 2 dollars on its inventory data

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:35 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
yu yu, not hypothesis, fondest hope or wishful thinking perhaps

BRUNEI yu yu 14:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
just a hypothesis ... : )

Lahore FM 14:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
austin mw 14:09 GMT October 31, 2007
thanx mw,staglation,yes.i needed the cue for sure.gtgl!

NYC NYC-3 14:15 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
middle class can't afford food and fuel?
which ones?
do fureigners "need" to impose their local experiences on the US? food is ? 8% ofexpenditures these days, in steady decline for 50 and 100 yrs. if it goes to 9%, can the US afford that?
The US was unaffected by 50 to 70$ crude, can she afford 90? that 20$ equals 146billion annually or 1% of US output.?
doomed>

BRUNEI yu yu 14:14 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
What a lot of things to see in this halloween day.. No wonder they do it today so the parents can concentrate on the computer while the childrens are going collecting the candies so they will not bother them.... : )

austin mw 14:09 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 13:50 GMT October 31, 2007
Lahore FM 13:49 GMT

and the Prices Paid says .... Inflation! 74.7 vs 59.0

Lahore FM 13:49 GMT October 31, 2007
deflator and pmi sub 50 signify a contracting economy.

together signal stagflation?

melbourne DC 14:02 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
1348 GMT [Dow Jones] If the FOMC decides to cut rates 25BPs and rein in market expectations for more cuts, it could use the Nov '98 statement as a guide. In Nov. '98, the FOMC cut rates 25BPs and in its policy statement referred to "the 75 basis point decline in the federal funds rate since September." It was the last rate cut of that cycle. Some Fed watchers say that if the Fed similarly refers to cumulative rate reductions since last month, when it cut 50BPs, it would send a signal not to expect further moves. (BB)

Would probably watch the above , and a 'dissenting vote signal' .

best trading opp .. fed holds .

if not, 25p cut, with the msg above .. hopefully $ mjr slight strength to top out for some decent correction (fitting some m/t tech analysis) subject to other factors of course, esp fri nfp.

Bon Air VA Dennis 13:50 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:49 GMT

and the Prices Paid says .... Inflation! 74.7 vs 59.0

Lahore FM 13:49 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
deflator and pmi sub 50 signify a contracting economy.

london phil 13:47 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
chicago pmi 49.7 ouch expected 53

Lahore FM 13:46 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 13:44 GMT October 31, 2007
Weak Chi PMI, sub-50

FW CS 13:39 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
a deflationary collapse where loans are writtedn off and defaulted on would also temporarily boost the $ ala subprime in August.

Monaco Oil man 13:37 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:32 GMT October 31, 2007

There is no way to support current deficits without "virtual" $.

FW CS 13:35 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:32 GMT October 31, 2007
Ha ha. Snow flake chance in h ell of that happening. But yes that would do it to.

Mtl JP 13:32 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 13:14 / how about an announcment that the FED is being disbanded and US is going back to "sound money" (aka Gold)?

London NYAM 13:21 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
sold usdjpy 115.28

FW CS 13:14 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 12:04 GMT October 31, 2007
I am not sure what it will take to turn this $ around. Maybe a hawkish Fed, CB interventions and doves for everyone else.

London NYAM 13:12 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Worth a re-post from PAR:

PAR 09:32 GMT August 1, 2007
If Fed cuts oil will be above $100 , energy and food will become unaffordable for middle class america and the US dollar will become freely convertible in Zimbabwean dollars .Always cutting rates when excesses become apparant is like taking EPO. Lol.


Cut out of my short GBPUSD// too rich for me at these levels. Think we will see better opportunities after the Fed.

Lahore FM 13:10 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 13:03 GMT October 31, 2007
send a contact request to Jay.

GENEVA DS 13:06 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Monaco.... thks for cdjpy... do agree... is a still on uptrend and far from the 1980 target of 200.... smile... tks

FW CS 13:03 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Less and less foreigners want $ for toursist transactions. Not sure if its actually practical for trading though
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ahcvx7iJ4tXM

isr jweb 13:03 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm

hello there. can i have your email? please

Lahore FM 12:56 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Weak deflator figures will have currencies shrug the data off.

Toronto tn 12:50 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 06:10 GMT October 31, 2007
offering eur/cad 3790/3810, stop 3838. Looking for 3680 as a meaningful low.

Took half back at 3765, stop at 3800 for the rest. Never know with the fed and month end flows taking turns smacking this thing.

ramat gan bar 12:44 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
3Q GDP Beats Forecasts At +3.9%

Monaco Oil man 12:20 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 12:06 GMT October 31, 2007

I was looking at CADJPY earlier , and 125 this week is a good target..
GBPAUD no Trend point lower than current however definitely a short as daily model short from 2.4 , and lower time frames are also short.
CADJPY is one of my preferred yen pair along NZDJPY , GBPJPY/EURJPY , AUDJPY atm.

london phil 12:20 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
adp came in at 106 k expected 60 k

Budapest Z 12:08 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Oil, this is a key point...

a CB intervention at this point would have little effects on the trend itself..
CB intervention work only when they are against specs , only way for them to have a lasting effect.
Then CB's have been diversifying out of the US$ into other ccy's the last few years , and there is still a long ways to go.
Another way to look at it , is that market is correcting itself by diversifying out of $.

GENEVA DS 12:06 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
MONACO... thanks for your precious comments.. actually I missed them a lot... WHERE is CADJPY going to and where would you see GBPAUD ?.... thanks for eventual reply... d.

GENEVA DS 12:05 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
CRUDE OIL up USD 2.-- again since low of 88.88 this morning... just amazing... probably Helicopter Ben already in action for tonite...

Monaco Oil man 12:04 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 11:36 GMT October 31, 2007

a CB intervention at this point would have little effects on the trend itself..
CB intervention work only when they are against specs , only way for them to have a lasting effect.
Then CB's have been diversifying out of the US$ into other ccy's the last few years , and there is still a long ways to go.
Another way to look at it , is that market is correcting itself by diversifying out of $.
Apart from little blips , the US$ has no reason to go up...
GL .

GENEVA DS 12:03 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
PAR...

probably USX would be at 100 again... as all people are only trading crosses... so EURUSD would be at 1.00 again....

PAR 11:54 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Where would US dollar index be if USDJPY would move to its all time low of 78.30 .

van Gecko 11:53 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP & crosses not not looking friendly for Euro's moon shot.. fwiww..


London NYAM 11:50 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 11:39// so much of this tim ereminds me of the early 70's. If he does try a chopper drop it will be, a disaster I believe. Equities will likely only get a temporary boost, if that. Most likely equities will drop and so will (obviously) the dollar.

Como Perrie 11:47 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
there's speech bout a heavy option barrier 1.45 onto the eurusd for today

FW CS 11:39 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Fed still worried about housing
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071029/ap_on_bi_ge/fed_interest_rates_2

“U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.”
Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
November 21, 2002
Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here
http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

also does not want to see plunging equities as remarked earlier last paragraph:
http://foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3272
------------------------------------
So if he believes that deflation (possily from falling housing or equity prices) is starting to creep into the economy he will cut or add money like crazy into the economy. Above Fed speech is where he makes the helicopter drop reference.

Well FOMC is his chance to cut lets see if he gets trumped or if he is allowed to go with his personal beliefs. It seems to me the Fed officials are signalling some type of cut. I could very well be wrong though just some food for thought. A 50 bps cut would not surprise me though if he is allowed to go with his personal beleifs.

London NYAM 11:38 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 11:16/You might be right depending on the statement and outcome of FOMC and what price action we get first. I think if we are done until 'the event' where I would suspect that Jay>>may be right that a sweep of weak longs will come first if its going to make a shot at breaking though 1.4540-60 area. That could bring us as low as 1.4350/5 or just to 1.4390/5. If the market is searching out more weak shorts, on the other hand and pushes over the cluster 1.4467 into the 1.4490 zone then I think that may hurt the prospects of usd breaking to 1.46++ as the fuel will have been burned. And more comfortable shorts can jump in after the statement. The in-line forcast does seem like a done deal and bucking that would be close to nuts (ie it surely must be 25 basis cut) the result should be sell the news.

FW CS 11:36 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Mr. esteemed Oil Man
I think it will take some concerted CB intervention to turn that $ bear around.

Melbourne Qindex 11:24 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Critical Support 1.4293

Daily Directional Indicator : (1.4209) - (1.4295) - 1.4416 - 1.4420* - 1.4440* - 1.4479

Daily Cycle Pivot Center : 1.4416 - 1.4479

3-Day Cycle Pivot Center : 1.4420* - 1.4440*

Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (1.4209) - (1.4295)

Remarks : The  market is under pressure when it is below the 3-day cycle pivot center at 1.4420* and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the daily cycle pivot center at 1.4416. On the other hand the market momentum is strong when it is above 1.4440* and speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above the daily cycle pivot center at 1.4479. The current expected trading range from the weekly cycle are 1.4344* - 1.4369 - 1.4394 - 1.4418 - 1.4443* // 1.4468 - 1.4492 - 1.4541* - 1.4591.

Upside Targeting Points : 1.4523 and 1.4572

Downside Targeting Points : 1.4381 and 1.4386


Melbourne Qindex 00:19 GMT October 31, 2007
EUR/USD : : Heading Towards 1.4461

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is pulling towards 1.4461. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is going to challenge 1.4503. The market is likely to consolidate between 1.4430 - 1.4491 for the time being.

Monaco Oil man 11:23 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY looks ready to tackle previous high's in the 170 region this week or next.
GL.

Makassar Alimin 11:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:12 GMT October 31, 2007

NYAM, i like those numbers :) personally think that 1.4540 is not good enough for bulls today as it would be met with heavy selling on pops to that area, for them to really make a killing is to go higher into 1.46 zone

London NYAM 11:12 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
FWIW Coffee done:
EURUSD clusters
1.4442-1.4469 *****
1.4546-1.4556 *******
1.4643-1.4664 ****
1.4711-1.4726 ***

Monaco Oil man 11:10 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 10:43 GMT October 31, 2007

900 looks feasable atm.

GL.

AZUSA 4x-ed 11:07 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:27 GMT October 31, 2007
PAR, Here's one more headliner to add to your daily dose of drama... Bunds are on the precipice of a cavernous drop! Cheers and cheer up!

Malaga boqueron 11:07 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
On a slightly longer term basis, I suppose it's safe - and will continue to be so - to sell the U.S. dollar until we get some sort of coordinated intervention by the major central banks to support it , signalling the line in the sand. Doesn't appear to me that the current U.S. administration is too worried about the dollar's demise. Hence, until then, any brief bout of dollar strength can be used to enter short dollar positions.

Monaco Oil man 11:05 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
I did go short EUR$ , when EURJPY crashed from 170 to 160..
It didn't last long however , as few days later at 158 EURJPY long again (plenty posts and newsletters about it)..

I follow the trends , atm there's no reasons to long US$ apart against the yen.
PS :
Still ways to go for 2 DOL for 1 CAD , but moving forward.

GL.

Mumbai NS 10:51 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 10:43 GMT October 31, 2007
If u check archives he has given gud sell signals on euro also i remember it well because i was long at 1.2860 when he recommended short which worked well though eventually it broke up and it worked for me also.....he has a view and we all have freedom to express......it then comes to style some guys/gals are aggressive and instinctive by nature we have to give it to them......but we shuld at the same time respect any view gl gt

hong kong seek 10:43 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
OILMAN--long time no c ..could u share views on gold ? ths

Bon Air VA Dennis 10:43 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 10:19 GMT

he quotes one retail source regularly which is always long USD and short EUR, it is a tiny slice of the fx pie which he feels tells the story

Toronto tn 10:41 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Oilman,
Thanks for bringing some sanity back to this place.

Mumbai NS 10:37 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Oilman to add further i have no sell signal on euro for now so ur end culd be rite who knows it's only the means that u are mentioning i found it different from what i have.
tks and regards

Mumbai NS 10:35 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Oilman i am doing a lot of typo errors regret that....... i was talking of cftc only .......the data which i have shows an increase in dollar shorts and ......brokerages having retail crowd u wuld agree are too small to count gl gt

Maribor 10:35 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 10:19 GMT October 31, 2007

On two platforms I look at, customers are net short EURUSD(31% and ~36% long)

Monaco Oil man 10:31 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
NS :

The long US$ position have increased steadily as US$ moved downward in the last few month, in ALL spot fx brokerage..
Then CFTC is also similar.
GL.

Makassar Alimin 10:30 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
euro short position got stopped out at 1.4454, no luck this one, flat now

PAR 10:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Thanks to viglant Trichet eurozone economy starting to experience STAGFLATION .

Haifa ac 10:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Euro and BP--there is not ONE SHORT WITH PROFIT in the whole world.
Most likely stops will be taken out within 1 minute after the fomc announcement. Almost a predictable game.

GENEVA DS 10:25 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Monaco ... congrats.... you seem to be one of the only bears of the USD...

London NYAM 10:24 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Kevin// What did you do with your Australian position?

PAR 10:20 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Logical that stronger Euro not leading to lower inflation and prices as importers not lowering prices but increasing profit margins . Same in USA lower $ not leading to higher prices as importers there reduce their profit margin .

Mumbai NS 10:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Oilman with due respect check clsa data specs are record short dollars not euro gl gt

Monaco Oil man 10:15 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Morning,
E$
Above 1.45 , should get another large push as barriers and option structures are broken..And plenty of them in the area.
Also 70% of spec short 1.42-1.44 , does point to a continuation , and healthy trend.
Great time also to buy NZD 75-76 for 80 this week or next.

As said in September , the winter trend has started , trend implies larger moves than usual , and lots of people on the wrong foot.
GL.

jkt rick 10:07 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
eur 1.4444, no matter how bullish it looks, somehow the simple model algorithmic patterns of past weeks tabulations are showing 1.4280 in a short time.

Mumbai NS 09:59 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Navin tks reflects how edgy it is hehehhehehe yep 2.0870 regret typo gl gt

mumbai Navin 09:56 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
NS - am sure 2.870 was a typo - agree with you - this pair is worth shorting. no two words abt tht..

warsaw TOMi 09:54 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 05:25 GMT October 31, 2007
toronto Dr Unken Katt 02:56
holas dottore,
be more patient, u said 23888 1st, holding long.

squared 23880 g/j ,tx katt

Mumbai NS 09:51 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
mm it's indeed edgy no two words abt that but now started the add on game with small one at 2.0732 looking to go on till 2.870 and close out all if unlucky at 2.1020 and 2.0180 if lucky gl gt

London NYAM 09:49 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Pardon me forum. Not a typo, my pre-coffee mistake, the number remains 1.4567 for the extension target, the high was 1.4467 EURUSD. Ill revert when I get the cluster analysis together and finish my coffee.

Lahore FM 09:48 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
1.4567*

ABHA FXS 09:48 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
short gbpjpy at 238.75 t 233.03
added short at 239.62

Lahore FM 09:39 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
bris 1.4467.NYAM probably did a typo making it 1.4576.

Gen dk 09:36 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

bris 09:36 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 09:29 GMT October 31, 2007
so far the high today exactly.

the high for which currency ?

London NYAM 09:29 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
O 1.1640
Wave 1 1.2331
Wave 2 1.1825
REGULAR EXTENSION
1.382 1.2595
1.618 1.2758
2.618 1.3449
4.236 1.4567*****
so far the high today exactly.

Lahore FM 09:26 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
"vote for the man who promises the least"

Baruch.

London NYAM 09:22 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
EURGBP is back on to the hourly trend line it tested yesterday at .6964...ahh just popped under it. Alot of clustering at .6953-57. Break of the .6936 low will (after a bounce) usher in .6895 again.

jkt rick 09:21 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
euro 1.4440, anyone seeing 1.4000 coming up

Syd .. 09:11 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
More trouble at UBS
Bring out your dead. Just as well the corpses from the third quarter have already been piled up, since there are more to come in the fourth.

Having reported an operating loss of $622m in the third quarter, UBS warned on Tuesday that further credit problems were likely to wipe out any gains from its investment banking division in the fourth quarter, though the group as a whole should return to profit. Assuming consensus fourth-quarter estimates of about $1bn pre-tax profits for the investment banking business, that points to further big credit losses to come.
LINK

madrid mm 09:10 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 09:06 GMT October 31, 2007

LOl sweaty and edgy fingers NS ? LOL

if it goes on like this i will get painful and involuntary muscular contraction in my fingers 8-)

London NYAM 09:05 GMT October 31, 2007
Exactly, all depends where you sit i guess !! 8-)

Mumbai NS 09:06 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
When i get desperate to go agst the trend i stay away but now it is getting too desperate but then wait wait wait is all i am saying at the moment but heart in heart know that at the verge of plunging gl gt

London NYAM 09:05 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
mm probably both.
Stopped out of half gbp short (avg 2.0660) at 2.0722. Now waiting to see how the Fed run up behaves. 2.0800 is the obvious 1.618 extension of the last major swings from 1.9648 to 2.0366.

madrid mm 09:01 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
So Trick or Treat today ?!

8-)

Maribor 08:56 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 07:37 GMT October 31, 2007

Zeus, with due respect, when I feels I should work with bigger positions than usual, things are and go wrong.

Helsinki iw 08:42 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD approaching 1.45/1.46 window. Favor selling there, perhaps on Fed action, for better sized downmove. Keep in mind Athens' commnets from a few weeks ago. Stop if clear break of 1,46.

All disclaimers in place.

Gen dk 08:38 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 08:32 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
115.80 won't hurt one bit.

madrid mm 08:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
slightly off topic but IMHO a gr8 explanation of the current meltdown in the subprime market nad how it worked for GS for example

Click here

St. Annaland Bob 08:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
SNB Chairman Roth was very clear while talking about inflation imported due to weak CHF...further, he mentioned the tool SNB will use to kill inflation...sounds like very safe trade or Mr. Roth is a liar...personally, I go for the safe trade.

GENEVA DS 08:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
think that EURCHF cross rate is about to turn sour. SNB people make it clear , that they will adjust rates up if needed, on the other hand, have some technical evidence , that the cross is eventually a big sell on rally. All would change for mid-termers , if we break 16830 , but otherwise we should go down a little to 1.6400 yet again. May be even better in this scenario is to buy some CHFJPY, as JPY is sinking more with the newly predicted recession (by PAR and BOJ) in Japan... good luck

PAR 08:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Stupid scenario of no Fed cut out of way . Discussion now is 50 bp immediately or 25 bp now and an additional 25 bp in december .

Bucharest Slim 08:14 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Fool(ish) wisdom - 'According to the pundits, the sign that a bear market is ending is a day of capitulation. The trouble is that none of the sustained overall market downturns in recent history have included such an event. When in doubt, let fundamentals guide your decisions, not yet another event that may or may not happen.' GL/GT

madrid mm 08:14 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
I am looking for some opinion on the help forum. It is a general question and i thank in advance those who would contribute. For those who won't , don t worry 8-)

madrid mm 08:12 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
PAR, old and not so old 8-)
-quote-
If subprime contagion and the credit crunch come back for Round Two, the most likely beneficiary will be the Japanese Yen. When fear gripped the financial markets in August, big players closed out carry trades, and the result was a huge short-covering rally in the JPY. This could be the play once again, as the Euro has gained over 1500 pips vs. the Yen since the August low ...
Ed Ponsi / Online Trading Academy
-unquote-


Haifa ac 08:07 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:41 GMT October 31, 2007
very interesting pre FOMC price-action.it means we will have much more exciting times ahead. //

Indeed. Feels like a day to remember in front of us.

Lahore FM 08:02 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
weaker jpy scenario still in works!

la fxt 07:51 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
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PAR 07:46 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Fukui : Downside risks to Japan s economy increasing . Typical for very old people to be always afraid .

Lahore FM 07:41 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
very interesting pre FOMC price-action.it means we will have much more exciting times ahead.

USA Zeus 07:37 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Usually don't use much margin leverage. However, I just doubled my shorts in EUR/USD 1.4462 and GBP/USD 2.0741. Could be the opportunity we have been anticipating. Smth tells me there is a massive USD push on the horizon. I can't leverage any more for VAR's sake but am all-in for this shot.

Happy Day!

ABHA FXS 07:14 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY Last 114.70
Will Move Up Untll Short Area At 115.91 And 116.91
Down Target 114.13-113.13

Melbourne DC 07:12 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:59 GMT October 31, 2007
no worries mate... couldn'tresist a tease earlier re audusd tgt of 70c typo (couldn't remember exact fig) :)) no posn now but watching the daily upchannel ceiling just above 0.9250. so no m/t opp available as only buy dip allowed, perhaps s/t trades.
Appreciate your post. take care.

Melbourne Qindex 07:07 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : ... // 2.0680 - 2.0827 - 2.0861 - 2.0915 - 2.0931 // ...

Melbourne Qindex 07:05 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : ... // 0.9167 - 0.9265 - 0.9316 - 0.9380 - 0.9402 - 0.9410 //...

Melbourne Qindex 06:59 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne DC 04:32 GMT - I guess thing can change if one can push USD/JPY down below 114.04.

ABHA FXS 06:50 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD Last 2.0700
Will Move Up Untll Short Area At 2.0730 And 2.0830
Down Target 2.0415-2.0315.

Rivonia PipPirate 06:44 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
G/$ S 'n R

Upside:

..<<..20862..20843..20824..20805..20786..20777..20767..20748..20737..//..20729..20710..

Downside:

20690..20667..20648..20629..20610../..20591..20572..20553..20534..20515..//..20496..20477..20449..20407..>



madrid mm 06:25 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 06:22 GMT October 31, 2007

No need to apologies, as i knew excactly what you meant !! No harm done at all my cyber FX friend 8-)

gl gt

madrid mm 06:23 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
is the 1.45 eurp/US$ a psychological lvl ? Any view ...

I think so...but then again so were 1.40, 1.35, 1.30 etc...8-(o

Mumbai NS 06:22 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
mm sry if that hurt but it was not intended to tell u abt it i know u know it better than most....just expressed my feelings.....gud luck mate gl gt

madrid mm 06:22 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
* BoJ keeps OCR unchanged at 0.50%; by majority vote of 8-1, with Atsushi Mizuno still dissenting (voting for hike).

* Focus on BoJ report at 0600GMT and BoJ Toshihiko Fukui from 0630GMT.

* ECB/ Bbk Axel Weber in WSJ interview Tues: On whether the ECB may yet need to raise rates again: All of the info we've received doesn't fundamentally change the picture that the economic upswing in the euro area is still intact, and that we have persistent price pressures ..

* We always said we would do what is necessary. We at this stage cannot exclude the option that in order to maintain price stability, with risks to price stability being to the upside and potentially having increased, that this will warrant future action.

* Australia building approvals for Sept +6.8%m/m, vs 0.7. Sept private sector credit +1.2%m/m, vs +1.0% expected.

* Canada Finmin Jim Flaherty: recent increases of Canadian dollar may reflect generalised USD weakness and speculative sentiment toward the CAD, rather than domestic fundamentals. He says rapid rise of CAD makes things "quite difficult" for business. Corporate tax cuts designed to help business cope with CAD rapid rise.

* NZ Oct business activity index at 20.3 from 17.2. Biz confidence index -12.9 from -26.5, companies are more optimistic about sales, economy.

* PBoC sets USD/CNY mid rate at new lows of 7.4692, hit 7.4637.

* Spanish insurer Mapfre SA says it has agreed to buy US' The Commerce Group Inc for $2.21b as an expansion in the US insurance market. Mapfre said it will pay about $36.70 in cash for each Commerce Group share.- Reuters.

* Focus turns to "Prime Time" Fed FOMC decision, and its statement after likely 25bps Fed Funds cut to 4.50%, and Discount rate cut to 5.00%t, on whether door is opened or closed for more cuts, after BoJ left its 0.50% rates unchanged by 8-1, keeping USD/JPY unchanged.

* Another Day, another new high in EUR, with EUR hitting all time highs of 1.4447, above 1.4442 "previous peak", helped by hawkish ECB Weber comments of ECB hike, in the midst of likely Fed cuts. But hearing huge options offers from UK clearers/ large German b4 1.4450 options expiry, talks China, Asian interest there. More at 1.4500.

USD/JPY on strong >$500m fixing demand from Japanese mega-city banks, set at 114.78, though mkt cautious of any large EUR13.79b Spanish eurozone coupons+redemption related sales today. USD/JPY bids at 114.50-60, with talks of more toushin, JPY carry trades demand. Japanese exporters offers 115, and talks China, Taiwan, North Asian, options, gamma offers as well. Huge stops above 115.10.

AUD firmer after strong building approvals, seen helping to "seal" RBA hike next week, with big Swiss, local Aust, US banks big buyers today. AUD/NZD hit 20-month highs of 1.2060-70 on large US custodian banks. AUD/JPY eye 106 handle, stops above.

CAD seen dipping on Govt concerns over "speculation", options at 0.9500.

Cable still on target for further 26-year highs of 2.0705, with GBP/JPY seen edging firmer.

USD/CNY hit new lows 7.4654, CNY/HKD new highs 1.0380 as mkt test HKMA resolve at 7.75 HKD, eye talks of USD peg widening. NZD firmer, but capped on AUD/NZD buying.

Nikkei +0.4% or 66.74pts at 16,717.75. JGBs steady after steady BoJ, 10-yr yield -0.010% 1.600%.

Gold prices recovers off lows, at $784.

Crude oil prices extend losses in Asia, at $89.57, -0.81 vs $93.80 peak.

madrid mm 06:18 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 06:16 GMT October 31, 2007

tell me about it ...... LOL
It reminds me the old sayings
1/ " what goes up...keep going up."
2/ "timing is everything ".

GL GT

Hong Kong YH 06:18 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 04:36 GMT October 31, 2007

From your previous post, you already say JPY can reach 112, but buy JPY need to pay interest. If holding too long, still loss

madrid mm 06:17 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
it is still making new high this euro/usd$.....8-)

And our Japnese "friends" in Kampo, BoJ, MoF must be watching the market very very very very closely today...And tey are not the only one... Me 2 lol

Mumbai NS 06:16 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
mm Gud day u can even type 1.50 by today it hardly matters ........i have rarely seen such overextended one way street for so long and still looking like going on and on .....reminds me of that 0.83xx in 2000 take care smiles and gt

madrid mm 06:12 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
will Euro/US$ reach 1.45 today ? it sure looks like it wants to do something 8-)

madrid mm 06:11 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Hello and GM ladies and gentlemen,

It isssssssssssssssssssssssss FOMC day for those of you who did not know yet !!!!!
8-)

Will it be 25bp? 50bp ? 75bp ? or even no cut ? It doesn t mater as long as we are ready and aplply gr8 money mangement.

Toronto tn 06:10 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
offering eur/cad 3790/3810, stop 3838. Looking for 3680 as a meaningful low.

ABHA FXS 05:46 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY Last 237.21
Will Move Up Untll Short Area At 238.62 And 239.62
Down Target 233.06-232.06.

EURJPY Last 165.52
Will Move Up Untll Short Area At 166.62 And 167.62
Down Target 162.51 -161.51

ABHA FXS 05:41 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
hi all,

USDCHF Last 1.1586
Will Move Down Untll Long Area At 1.1507 And 1.1407
Upper Target 1.1692-1.1792.

EURUSD Last 1.4437
Will Move Up Untll Short Area At 1.4526 And 1.4626
Down target 1.4258 -1.4158.

warsaw TOMi 05:25 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt 02:56
holas dottore,
be more patient, u said 23888 1st, holding long.

HK [email protected] 04:36 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
It seems like the non stop attempts to weaken the yen are recently not doing so well.

I think the situation is riped for a move to 112.00/112.50 area

Melbourne DC 04:32 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:25 GMT October 31, 2007
i knew the previous post was too good for myshort to be true :))

Melbourne Qindex 04:25 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is now trading above the monthly cycle projected series at 0.9134* // 0.9212. The distribution of the monthly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has potential to tackle 0.9290 which is the mid-point reference of 0.9134 and 0.9446. The weekly cycle charts suggest that the market will challenge the level at 0.9278 - 0.9282.

mumbai Navin 04:23 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Dr Qindex.

Melbourne Qindex 04:21 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
mumbai Navin 04:18 GMT - It was a mistake. It should be 0.9278 - 0.9282.

mumbai Navin 04:18 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
The weekly cycle charts suggest that the market will challenge the level at 0.7278 - 0.8282.

Dr Qindex - you mean we will head that much lower in time to come?

Melbourne Qindex 04:07 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is now trading above the monthly cycle projected series at 0.9134* // 0.9212. The distribution of the monthly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has potential to tackle 0.9290 which is the mid-point reference of 0.9134 and 0.6446. The weekly cycle charts suggest that the market will challenge the level at 0.7278 - 0.8282.

Syd .. 03:54 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
China's mainland warned Taiwan secessionist forces Wednesday that it will take "necessary measures" if they continue to take the risks of pushing for Taiwan's independence, the state-run Xinhua news agency reported.

If secessionist forces cling to their course of risking Taiwan's independence, the mainland "will definitely take necessary measures to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity and protect our nation's core interests," the report quoted a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council as saying at a press conference.

Melbourne Qindex 03:51 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
USD (DX, NYBOT) : Heading Towards 76.31

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below the center of the monthly cycle projected series at 77.02 and it is going to test the supporting strength o 76.31. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market will tackle the the lower barrier of the weekly cycle projected series at 76.18 // 76.28.

Melbourne Qindex 02:59 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD: As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market momentum is strong when it is above 2.0594. The market is now heading towards 2.0763 which is the mid-point reference of 2.0594 and 2.0932. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when it is above the barrier at 2.0640 - 2.0649. The market is going to tackle the upper barrier of the weekly cycle projected series at 2.0790 // 2.0827.

toronto Dr Unken Katt 02:56 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
hi
anyone has idea reg. pound- yen
tommorow should be ripe for the short side i see the tp at the main T/L 231

tia didi

FW CS 02:51 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 23:04 GMT October 30, 2007
O Mighty Zeus. EXACTLY regardless of our personal beliefs or any 'trend'. The only 'trend' that matters as you pointed out is the trend in our account values. Hopefully that account value 'trend' continues to rise for both of us.

The fate of the $ mid term I beleive is now in FOMC's hands.....

Melbourne Qindex 02:39 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is under pressure when it is below 1.1581. the market is pulling towards the center of the monthly cycle projected series at 1.1462. The weekly cycle charts indicate that 1.1488 - 1.1490 is a projected supporting level.

Gen dk 00:40 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 00:27 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
Correction-
"into that 77x level.." should read "on the way to that 77x level..."

USA Zeus 00:26 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 23:23 GMT October 30, 2007
N- Well Karl is a specimen no doubt! LOL. We share different angles, views and approaches. That's the best part of the forum...variety. Would buy you a drink anytime mate!

Alaska Moon 23:20 GMT October 30, 2007
Moon- I get your approach. Nice explanation. No idea about the GVI learning as I did not see it but am sure it could be helpful. I too am a trend trader. I usually look for the next trend ahead of the curve. Does not always work but usually so. We'll see this time.

Perhaps the commodities will pull the USD along? Still holding gold from the top in this nice down trend. Gain of 17 there now. Just hit 780.10 a min ago into that 77x level mentioned earlier. Oil down sharply is it's new trend. Still holding some of that too from the top.

As for trend trading and money management- I remember plenty who buckled in the summer channels of 2006. They had their teeth chizzled a dozen times on fake-outs. In fact where did JW Henry's AUM go?

Happy Day!

Melbourne Qindex 00:19 GMT October 31, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : : Heading Towards 1.4461

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is pulling towards 1.4461. The weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is going to challenge 1.4503. The market is likely to consolidate between 1.4430 - 1.4491 for the time being.

 




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