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Forex Forum Archive for 11/1/2007

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Syd .. 23:59 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD may fall to 1.4380 on selling by non-Japan investors to take profits, says trader at Tokyo securities company; "many players are likely to try to lock in profits by selling the euro against the dollar as global stocks could fall following the U.S. stock plunge last night." But lingering speculation that rate gaps between U.S., Europe could shrink further may support pair. Tips resistance at 1.4450 for now

LA BFL 23:44 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
hi ... can anyone give a view on gbp/jpy pair ? it seems this cross moved amazingly.
TIA

Syd .. 23:39 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Bond Insurer ACA May Be Next Hazard In Credit Crunch -ReportAn exotic form of bond insurance could be the next hidden hazard to blow up in the global credit market minefield, with ACA Capital ) sparking the explosion, Businessweek reported on its Web site Thursday.

The magazine said the potential problem stems from firms selling insurance to banks and other major investors for bonds backed by mortgages and collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. The policies, called credit default swaps, are designed to protect investors in case the securities default.

Businessweek said as CDOs grew into a trillion-dollar business, credit default swaps became a lucrative source of revenue for companies such as American International GroupMBIA (MBI), and Ambac Financial Group ). Businessweek said it's difficult to assess the extent of the danger, noting that bond insurers argue that the worst-case scenario -- mass CDO defaults, forcing tens of billions in insurance payouts -- is highly remote, given the limited downgrades to date. Insurers also note that many of their policies provide coverage for the highest-rated slices of CDOs, which are the least likely to default, the news magazine said.








Syd .. 23:24 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY likely to weaken toward 114.00 in tandem with falls in JPY crosses amid growing risk aversion following sharp drop in U.S. stocks overnight, says trader at Tokyo securities company. "Many players remain concerned about the fallout from U.S. subprime loan jitters"; adds, "if Asian stocks fall, crosses will likely slide in tandem, which in turn may hamper rises in the dollar against the yen." But receding expectations of near-term BOJ hike may support pair. Notes players now awaiting U.S. October jobs data for clues on future course of U.S. economy, possibility of further rate cuts by Fed.

Syd .. 22:47 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
S&P/ASX 200 offshore leads bearish, with SPI futures down 134 points at 6710.0 after sharp falls on Wall Street, base metal prices

Syd .. 22:28 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USD experiencing mixed trade with the major dynamic in markets a massive unwind of carry trades on Wall Street jitters overnight. Sue Trinh, strategist at RBC, says markets computing the fact Fed is on hold and unlikely to ease at December policy meeting. The probability that U.S. rates will remain on hold putting a floor under USD for now. Key levels to watch EUR/USD 1.4400; now 1.4420. JPY is strongest performer, benefiting from carry trade exodus.

EU-BGD The Japanese Yen 22:19 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi

JPY
Amidst the whirlwind of records set against the greenback yesterday, the JPY managed to stay proportionately neutral. Following Japan's announcement that interest rates will stay at 0.5%, Governor Fukui reiterated the Bank of Japans statement noting slowed economic growth in the country. After abandoning initial ideas that consumer prices in Japan would rise, there was not much surprise that rates stayed the same. As Japan is dependent on the growth of the global economy, the latest news from the US will inevitably lead the Japanese to make some changes to avoid damaging the JPY. With the fate of the JPY in the hands of outside factors, look for the JPY to continue to produce volatile results over the coming days. http://www.censored.com/en/?zone_id=1282

EU-BGD News 22:16 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   

Crude Oil
Oil has breached through the all time high of 96.00 and even touched the 96.20 at some point yesterday. The momentum is stronger than ever, and there is a strong belief that oil is running to the 100$ a barrel soon. This is a great opportunity for forex traders to get in at great entry point and ride that unbelievable trend : censored

EU-BGD Forex Trading 22:13 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi
Gold (XAU) rose after a gain in energy costs sparked demand for the precious metal as a hedge against inflation. XAU traded with a low of 777.50 and a high of 794.50
http://forex.censored.com

Morristown GG 21:59 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Syd and Jake, I'm an architect - the beginning of the pipeline for housing, and it has softened a lot - commercial too. Contractors are worried about having enough work and losing crew. Equity has gone way down, so spending follows. Hiring is down. Unless the numbers are tweaked, tomorrow's 8:30 EST jobs data should also encourage continued equity losses. I'm thinking the Asians will not want to go into the weekend with high risk. Tonight is the end of their week, so we could see some heavy unwinding and stops triggered on the way down.

Morristown GG 21:51 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Also meant to add - Super SIV not considered workable, Fed pumped 41 Billion in liquidity last night after cutting rates, Foreclosures way up across the nation.

denver jake 21:47 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 21:43 GMT November 1, 2007

Here are a couple of tech reasons to think the carries will keep on southbound. Aud/usd has nice RSI divergence on every chart from monthlies to 4 hourlies and also gbp/yen just touched the top of the massive H and S shelf and plummeted.

Syd .. 21:44 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD At Risk While Risk Appetite Curbed - NAB


2142 GMT [Dow Jones] U.S. payrolls data tonight taking on additional significance with global markets looking to numbers to provide signal on U.S. growth. John Kyriakopoulos, senior currency strategist at NAB, says data key for AUD/USD, which was bulldozed overnight amid "vicious" carry trade unwinding. Overnight night jitters on Wall Street fueling concerns that risk appetite will remain depressed. Immediate support for AUD/USD at 0.9080 followed by 20-day moving average that cuts in at 0.9031.

Morristown GG 21:43 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hello all again. I'm thinking of adding to my shorts in AUD - NZD/Yen tonight. What's the consensus? are we in for another stiff drop in Carry? I'm thinking 1. their equity markets will follow our steep drop, 2. The news out of Citigroup will be echoed - raising concerns about how bad other derivatives are in all banks, 3. continued bad news on home building and 4. the feeling that we are definitely seeing a drop in consumer spending - recession. - That a top has been reached and we are turning the corner now.

Morristown GG 21:38 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Geneva, I too want to caution you on the Trumpet articles. They read well, but they tend to write in support of their Fundamentalist Christian expectations of the rising Beast Power, Financial collapse etc. They have been warning of it for decades. I used to be a member of the Philadelphia Church of God, who publishes the Trumpet. Not to say it is all bad, I still lean toward that view, but they are always looking just for the bad news.

Syd .. 21:20 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Australia's main opposition Labor Party has maintained its solid lead over the ruling Liberal-National coalition at the halfway point of a six-week election campaign, according to a voter poll published Friday.

GVI john 20:30 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
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dc CB 20:01 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
SnP (SPX) cash. Not a pretty picture. Closes below 50Dsma.
http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$spx&p=d&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

USA Zeus 19:58 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
austin mw 19:45 GMT November 1, 2007
Covered 2nd 1/4 SP 500 @ 1512 for +36.50 points.

Will leave remaining at b/e for now. GT! :-)

Gen dk 19:57 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 19:47 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Will also add that i have just closed all core longs in oil and gold and no longer trading corrections as hedges just outrights on swings for now.

Cheers

austin mw 19:45 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:57 GMT November 1, 2007
Covered 1/4 SP 500 @ 1524.75 for +23.75 points.

I myself shorted the sp's yesterday but not covering yet.. I know pigs get fat and hogs slaughtered but I think we revisit the August lows.. Markets don't go higher without participation from the banking sector and this group has a long way to go.. Reminds me of the 90-92 period when the last banking crisis visited us..

Syd .. 19:45 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
DJI DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 13,609.41 3:44pm ET 320.60 (2.30%) down

KL KL 19:44 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Very rare for audusd to collapse 150 pips in one day...perhaps a short term top or just profit taking....??


fwiw shorted gbpusd 2.0809 sl 2.0819....

Gold crude...silver ..metals...lots of nervous nellies and stop loss building..

USA Zeus 19:42 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 18:45 GMT November 1, 2007

Oily- Point was there is a context for each comment made. Misrepresenting them is different. as for the trend reversal I do think it is here. I could/may be wrong just like anyone.
Other points by others that a "trend" in one traders view and timeframe is different than anothers. That's why I also agree with Ed Seykota that there really is no such thing as a trend only a history, present and future. None of which defines the other except by a non-statistical outcome of chance.

Have been scalping and adding shorts into rallies today on EUR/USD and GBP/USD headfakes but will not bother with the details. Just holding the line for now as posted earlier. Also added shorts on SP 500 y'day after the rally but only counting the levels posted earlier here and oil trades at the top from the futures forum.

All is well. Good to see you here friend.

Livingston nh 19:27 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Geneva - think about that article - it is classic 19th century economics - there is a good chance that yuan would fall because the economic and financial institutions in China could not support it - the author proposes that if China did not buy treasuries the dollar would fall - perhaps interest rates would rise to support the dollar // the EUR is the beneficiary of excess USD flow from china and asia so an alternative like CNY would draw the excess out of EU depressing the EUR

Folks talk about globalization but have little clue to its consequences

Stockholm za 19:23 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
fwiw..
Trading ideas for all newbie’s ?? … Try this one…
Go long GVI/GVFF at this point with stop lost at $z.

Geneva 19:14 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   


October 30, 2007 | From theTrumpet.com
China could set off a huge disruption to the global financial system. America may be first to feel it.

A “huge tsunami” of economic instability will engulf the globe’s financial markets if China bows to international pressure to switch the yuan to a free-floating currency, warns Australia’s treasurer. For America: higher interest rates, a falling dollar and soaring inflation may be about to smack home like the biggest wave since the Great Depression.

When China floats the yuan, it will be “a wild ride,” Peter Costello, the Australian treasurer, warned. “That will set off a huge tsunami that will go through world financial markets.”

For years, China has run a massive trade surplus with America—running into the trillions of dollars. Many U.S. officials feel the reason for this, at least in part, is the fact that China has kept its currency undervalued in relation to the dollar.

Normally in free-market conditions, when a country has a huge trade surplus its currency would appreciate compared to the country with the trade deficit. In this case, the yuan should have increased and the dollar decreased in value. Thus, the theory goes, Chinese exports would become more expensive and American exports would become more affordable, and consequently the trade relationship balance out.

However, Chinese officials, realizing a good thing, decided to artificially keep the yuan pegged to the dollar—so as the dollar’s value dropped, so did the yuan’s. Chinese exporters maintained their advantage and China continued to collect the billions it gained in trade with the U.S.

The interesting part comes in with what China did with all its surplus trade dollars.

Instead of spending them, which would have allowed the dollar to fall and the yuan to rise, it invested vast amounts of them into U.S. treasuries (which is the primary way they pegged the yuan to the dollar). These purchases, which have gone on for years and years, propped up the value of the dollar. Without Chinese treasury purchases, the dollar would have fallen in value long ago.

It is true that since 2005, China has moved to a floating-dollar peg, allowing the yuan to slightly rise against the dollar (approximately 10 percent). However, when compared to other currencies such as the euro, the Canadian and Australian dollars, or even Thai bahts, some of which have appreciated in excess of 40 percent during that time frame, the yuan’s appreciation is insignificant.

The marginal strengthening of the yuan verses the dollar is why many American officials feel that little improvement in Chinese-U.S. trade has occurred, and is why they keep pressuring China to let the yuan float freely.

However, a free-floating yuan will have very serious consequences.

“The day they decide to float their currency you are going to get huge reversals of financial flows around the globe, which will affect all exchange rates, that’s why I compared it to a tsunami,” said Costello. “All flows of capital they have been sending to the U.S. might reverse ….”

Those reversals of financial flows will not only work to drive the dollar lower, but would also have huge consequences on the way of life in America.

Paul Craig Roberts, who was assistant secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, put it this way: “When China’s currency ceases to be undervalued, American shoppers in Wal-Mart, where 70 percent of the goods on the shelves are made in China, will think they are in Neiman Marcus. Price increases will cause a dramatic reduction in American real incomes. If this coincides with rising interest rates and a setback in the housing market, American consumers will experience the hardest times since the Great Depression” (American Conservative, July 4, 2005).

The approaching wave may be almost ready to break. •

Alaska Moon 19:00 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 18:55 GMT November 1, 2007
========
I agree, DS.......
Here is my take on it all......
"HUMBLE" is the opposite of "Big I.... little you"
When you pass a bucket of sh*t, it is best not to stir...
It just makes it smell worse..... LOL
Now...If I can just manage to follow my own advise !!!!
Moon

GENEVA DS 18:55 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
There is no need for anybody in this forum to excuse for wrong predictions... as we make all the same amount of them ... But I thank everybody , who does make them here and it is still every traders responsiblity to pick out the right ones! Lets keep going and lets keep posting as much as possible right predictions ! have all fun good to have you here...

Monaco Oil man 18:48 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:34 GMT November 1, 2007

I have gone a few times short E$ in the past few years each time it goes down , as i trade the trend no arguments on that..Now you are calling for a reversal , i m asking why there's a reversal ..That's all.

Monaco Oil man 18:45 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:34 GMT November 1, 2007

That answers the question?
Anyways, if you read the post it said the strength in CAD will come from Oil , with 1.40 to 1.21 , and 1.17 to parity..

Syd .. 18:43 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
SNB: Would Act If Forex Devt Threatens Price Stability

Syd .. 18:41 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Venezuela Oil Min: No Need For Emergency OPEC Meeting
laughing all the way to the bank of course

LDN Mahmood 18:40 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 18:20 GMT // Yes I believe and agree with you.

Maribor 18:16 GMT // Tomorrow the USD goes lower.

USA Zeus 18:34 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 18:20 GMT November 1, 2007

Oil Man- Please. It was NOT genuine. You seem to paint a picture that I was wrong in pointing out USD rallies that did indeed happen after the posted "camp grows" chirps.

That is like pointing out that you called for EUR/USD into the 1.1x's last year while it was channeling in the 1.2x's- which you did. Also, I remember last year you posted about how the Canadian dollar should weaken because of economic faltering. What does any of that have to do with today? Was that genuine? Please! Put in in proper context.

Syd .. 18:32 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
As Oil Price Sets New High,
Stress Hits Developing Nations
One of the biggest forces behind the near-quadrupling of oil prices this decade has been voracious fuel demand in China and other developing nations. But with crude closing in on $100 a barrel, shortages and price spikes are sparking economic and social tensions from Beijing to Tehran. That stress could signal a turning point in the long-running energy boom.Officials say the situation could worsen if not quickly resolved. A man was killed by another customer Tuesday morning after jumping a line to buy gasoline in the Henan Province city of Xinyang, local police said
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119384522956777767.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

Syd .. 18:30 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Bank 'lends Northern Rock £23bn'
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7073556.stm

Credit crisis 'could cripple UK economy'
Sam Fleming, Daily Mail

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandard/frame.html?in_bottom=http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news/article.html?in_article_id=425855&in_page_id=2&ct=5

Monaco Oil man 18:20 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 18:05 GMT November 1, 2007

It was a genuine question..
Why a reversal here..For me the US$ is about to have another heavy move to the downside with I% decreasing while increasing elsewhere (or at least seen as for the moment)..
When carry start cutting I% this might be a different story though this should also pull all x/jpy pairs to the upside which in the end pulls all the carry pairs to the upside not really helping the US$.

Maribor 18:16 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
LDN Mahmood 18:07 GMT November 1, 2007

It may go up, or it my go down...my guess in this moment is GBPUSD < 2,04, AUDUSD <0,86. But day has not finished yet and all can change...tomorrow we may know more...

madrid mm 18:14 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
BUD PS 17:53 GMT November 1, 2007

Ohhhhhhhhhh 8-)

BRUNEI yu yu 18:08 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus

LOL that is a long way to go....................

LDN Mahmood 18:07 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
... meant people

Keep selling USD. Tomorrow it goes lower.

USA Zeus 18:06 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
BRUNEI yu yu 18:02 GMT November 1, 2007
yu yu- Yes. Prediction for today was posted yesterday- Down down. LOL

See futures forum.

LDN Mahmood 18:05 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Two pepople who understand what I'm talking about. I totally agree :)

Monaco Oil man 01:28 GMT November 1, 2007
Zeus :
I haven't been here in awhile, but you were predicting this a year ago , and ever since ...quote "the USD bull camp is growing and growing"...What makes you think 1.45 is the time for the USD reversal...I can see a move to the downside from here , even 1.41 or 1.40 , or even 1.38 , then what?...1.50?..
US cutting I% isn't exactly the reversal to a stronger US$ , but points to further decline...Money is no patriot ,and just goes where it's better cared for.

hong kong nt 06:11 GMT November 1, 2007
ZEUS -- just credit 10 million US$ into your demo accounts. you may add more crude shorts at 90, 95, 105, 120. I am sure the correction may happen eventually...




BRUNEI yu yu 18:02 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
just want to know any prediction for oil & gold today?

USA Zeus 18:01 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
sorry for last post-wrong forum.

USA Zeus 17:57 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Covered 1/4 SP 500 @ 1524.75 for +23.75 points.

BUD PS 17:53 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 17:48 GMT November 1, 2007

and... sentimentality? ;-)

madrid mm 17:48 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
in FX, as in any business, the most important thing is preserve your capital and ....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aPGk01AiyM

8-(O

Syd .. 17:46 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 13,688.99 1:37pm ET
241.02down (1.73%)

Syd .. 17:43 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Monetary policy in a climate of increased uncertainty
http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/speeches/id/ref_20071101_tjn/

PAR 17:39 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
How many billions of liquidity did the Fed pump into the market one day after lowering rates ? $ 41 BILLION

London NYAM 17:28 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD snipe. that is. Get the feeling its going from carry story back to wqeak dollar story.

PAR 17:27 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
GMAC reports $ 1.6 billion loss and gets downgraded by Moody s.

London NYAM 17:27 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Took the GBPJPY snop back of at 2.0840.

dc CB 17:08 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
gum shoes take a beating UGG(s).

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=crox&p=d&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

saopaulo cg 17:01 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:14 GMT November 1, 2007

sorry JP, i am french and my english is very poor. Even with my bad english, i am trying to bring ideas to the forum as the forum provides me of very good ideas. I will try to improve my english. gtgl, cheers !

madrid mm 16:59 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis
even past the 70s lol
maybe they are playing cards together !!! 8-)

madrid mm 16:57 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
yeah yeah yeah !!!

lol

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:56 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
cud be mm, cud be :-(

London NYAM 16:52 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
mm//lol! there was a trend line hold on the hourlies too, honestly!

madrid mm 16:51 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

" I can resist anything , except temptation."
Oscar wilde
8-)

madrid mm 16:50 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:47 GMT November 1, 2007
Couldnt resist...

There is a big probability that we have all been there .. and we will be 8-)

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:28 GMT November 1, 2007
Is he that fast ? 8-)

London NYAM 16:47 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Couldnt resist and placed small sell again on cable at 2.0868 add at 2.0690 stop at 2.0915. Do not follow me!

GVI john 16:40 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR- Actually only 48% odds on -25bp on December 11 52% unchanged). See chart on GVI Blog

philadelphia/lagos wisdom trader 16:40 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
first time in here in over a year. any of the old traders still here? we were looking at gbpusd 1: 1.3 back then.how things have changed.

PAR 16:30 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
By now a dec fed and discount rate cut seems to be 200 % certain . Helicopter Ben will keep spreading dollar bills around . Imho he is not going to last very long .

Bon Air VA Dennis 16:28 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:03 GMT

sounds like Murdoch wants to turn WSJ into a crap tabloid or print version of Entertainment Tonight

London NYAM 16:24 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Stopped out for the other half short on GBPUSD at break even.
Andras//On a technical point the EURGBP chart is still bearish s/t. Sometimes its best to just seek a technical answer on short time frames :) IMO of course.

Pecs Andras 16:05 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
NYAM
Thanks. Still don't understand why cable is still close to the record set after the very last rally against the dollar when most other currencies have corrected back significantly.

madrid mm 16:03 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
About Bear Stearns Cos. Chief Executive Officer James ``Jimmy'' Cayne .....

It reminds me the song " Don t worry, be happy !" 8-)

../.."the Wall Street Journal, in a front page story earlier today, cited unidentified people as saying he smoked pot at bridge tournaments. The story also said Cayne, 73, spent 10 of 21 working days in July outside the office while two of the company's hedge funds collapsed." ../..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTJiJOk1wXAY&refer=home

London NYAM 15:59 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Andras//Speculation was for an early rate cut for cable has been priced back out. While Eur (relatively speaking) had more neutral expectation for a rate hike already priced-in. Also may have seen a little overbought EURGBP shaking out. If you want to carry with a european currency then GBP benefits more IMO.

Pecs Andras 15:46 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi guys,
All the high-yielder-comm currencies are suffering now except for the pound.
Why is that?
I can see EUR/GBP, but also why is that? Most people were calling for much higher level after 0.7000.

London NYAM 15:31 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
In order for EURGBP to regain its footing it must make a concerted break of .6949 otherwise as I stated 2 days ago, it runs the risk of falling all the way to .6895 support (.382 and major swing low).

NYC NYC3 15:13 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
whadda i do in teh next 10 min, please help - types whould go to Vegas and lose more slowly.

NYC NYC3 15:13 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 14:07 made an excellent observation,
it relates not to a 1 day move,
but of significant trend potential.

Stockholm za 15:03 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   

PAR 14:17 GMT >> Yes a lot of negations went trough at the 4407 value this week. So the guys that defended it will be watching the 4388 threshold on position reaction. Have not seen them in as yet..
Watching the 4356 midpoint & the 4460 closing barrier On re-evaluation.

EU theEUROqueen 14:51 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Happy day bob..

maybe we can see the 1,4592 after 24 hrs from now!!

happy trade

PAR 14:42 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Weak opening on Us stocks = strong close . Expect Us stocks to rally and USD to fall later in session. Except USDJPY which will be supported by permanent carry demand . We will see .

London NYAM 14:42 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Closed out half of my GBPUSD short here at 2.0799. Stop for rest at entry.

Gen dk 14:26 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Pete Islander 14:17 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 09:31 GMT November 1, 2007

Nice! gl>

PAR 14:17 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Federal Home Loan Bank of Chicago won t pay a third quarter dividend . So Citi will not be alone . Euro well protected above 1.4400 .

Mtl JP 14:14 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
NYC3 14:03 / "yesterday", saopaulo cg 14:07 / he did that call, the yen was...

u guys are confusing this g-v "trading ideas" forum for a history channel. How about a call that uses "will" vs was/did ?

saopaulo cg 14:07 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
incredible how Jamie Saettle from dailyfx.com called this big reverse in usdjpy yesterday and today. When he did that call, the yen was at 115.80. As everybody, this guy misses sometimes but for this time "chapeau !!!!!". You can read today call at dailyfx.com. The call of yesterday has been deleted already.

HK JL 14:06 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi , can anyone help in find the update price for a new share listed in NY call Giant Interactive Group Inc (GA) pls . Tks vm.

PAR 14:03 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Citigroup has unlimited resources in the person of Prince Al Waleed . His highness helped them before .

NYC NYC3 14:03 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
thx to who said tradin' yen ? the clues are all in the e/y, yesterday.

v of 5 fini in e terms. huge move ahead here IMO.

London NYAM 13:56 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Za!

Stockholm za 13:51 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   

GBP/USD at this moment >> 1w is 8.15, 3m is 7.00, 6m is 6.93 , 1y is 6.93. The 1m 25 delta risk reversal is 0.50 GBP puts. Vs last week 0.70 put.
Happy trades….

Gen dk 13:50 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 13:46 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Thats quite an unwind on G/J Kaprocorn you must be over the moon.

Gen dk 13:44 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 13:41 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 13:40 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 13:35 GMT November 1, 2007// Have you got the figures of cable? Is there a decent site for that?
Cheers in advance.

saopaulo cg 13:39 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
going south usdjpy and eur jpy.....

madrid mm 13:36 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
ISM Mfg Index - Level
Consensus 51.5

madrid mm 13:35 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 13:19 GMT November 1, 2007

does not surprise me with a STRONG CAD$.. getting more for your money 8-)

Stockholm za 13:35 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   

EUR/USD at this moment >> 1w is 9,10, 3m is 7.07, 6m is 6.72 , 1y is 6.6. The 1m 25 delta risk reversal is 0.22 EUR puts. Vs last week 0.49 put.
Happy trades….

Toronto tn 13:19 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Six pack? Up here it's a Two Four, eh.

Gen dk 13:09 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 13:01 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Ahe 12:58 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 12:53 GMT Halifax CB 12:52 GMT Halifax CB 12:50 GMT Thank a million, I see now. LOL

London NYAM 12:56 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Looks like you might of missed that Perrie.
Z// Looks promising...

Gen dk 12:53 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

FW CS 12:53 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:45 GMT November 1, 2007
That is slang here in the states - Joe is a very common name
Six pack - as in six pack of beer. So Joe six pack is your average citizen in US especially one who does not concern themselves with finance,political, governmental issue. another saying is "your average Joe".

Halifax CB 12:52 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Also - for those somewhat bewildered w/r to the American language - the six pack refers to the beer, not the abs :)

madrid mm 12:52 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:50 GMT November 1, 2007

"Jose el seis paquete " maybe....

8-)

Melbourne DC 12:51 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
WOW look at the audusd !!

PAR 12:51 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Markets already pricing in a 60% chance of a Dec Fed cut . One day after Fed cut both rates . How addicted can one get ?

Halifax CB 12:50 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:45 GMT November 1, 2007
Joe Six Pack = just an average working person....Wonder what the equvalents is in China (and for mm, Spain)

madrid mm 12:48 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:45 GMT November 1, 2007

LOL PAR is better suited than me on this one

LOL

Hong Kong Ahe 12:45 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Many thanks mm, I see. But Par the professor has another term that I dont understand, what is Joe Six Pack, LOL.

Singapore DT 12:43 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:17 GMT November 1, 2007

it worked once but I strongly doubt it will work all the time, Fed don't have many bullets left, soon they will have to face reality, stocks are going down even more so with rising oil, my bet is that high oil price will stay and so logically short stocks

madrid mm 12:40 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 12:33 GMT November 1, 2007

it is a new super hero cartoon character 8-)

SIV --- The investment vehicles, known as "conduits" and structured investment vehicles (SIVs), are designed to operate separately from the banks and off their balance sheets

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN0546097720070905

PAR 12:38 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Try to live on CORE inflation products . No Food and No energy and in three weeks you are death without inflation .
Core inflation is good for "second live" but does not serve Joe Six pack .

London NYAM 12:36 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Going to sell Cable at 2.0845 stop at 2.0910

USA Zeus 12:36 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD 2.0850 head fake. Holding the line for a fallout. EUR/USD has taken the lead. Will be back here when it is lower- Much lower.

Happy Day!

Hong Kong Ahe 12:33 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:17 GMT Hi Par, what is Super Siv? TIA

Gen dk 12:30 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 12:26 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:17 GMT November 1, 2007

a toilette flush of taxpayers monnies in subtle games. As there to be whole nations and central banks under chapter 11

PAR 12:17 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Us stock futures starting to prepare the next Fed and Discount rate cut in December . It was to help Citi and the Super Siv that Fed lowered rates .

Hong Kong Ahe 12:13 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
NZDJPY and AUDJPY have shown not following the uptick as GBPJPY and EURJPY in same pace. GLGT

Como Perrie 12:13 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 12:05 GMT November 1, 2007

even if I ll be living in US would choose to not vote anyone. As It appears rep or dem is just a masquerade at the paycheck of multinationals, hence the several questions and analyses seen last years about the old concept of values sold and those imposed with this neo conservativism or neo democraticism ala Hilary, her as well supported by multinationals.

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:10 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:09 GMT

what a bunch of babble - rotfl

Como Perrie 12:09 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 12:05 GMT November 1, 2007

:) well for the new we have just the newconservativistics approaches so bad. For the rest some sort of final countdown hopefully will become the real new fact behind the many theories falsificated.

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:05 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 11:35 GMT

So what else is new?

Global-View 12:04 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
In trending markets we often get "distress" emails from those who are caught badly and it is usually when it is too late to salvage. For our forum members, we have a Help (Learning) Forum where you can ask any question,. no matter how basic or advanced and can ask for guidance before it is too late to help. There is also a wealth on information in its archives.

Becoming a trader is an evolutionary process, one where you can learn from your mistakes provided you keep them minor. We strongly suggest using our Help Forum, which is the centerpiece of our new Learning Center.

Makassar Alimin 11:58 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
wonder if carry trades and stocks have finally decoupled, or is it just temporary anomaly?

London NYAM 11:57 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
So Perie when do you plan on selling USDJPY?

Como Perrie 11:49 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
It's worriesome with the new round from Turkey. Turkey closed air borders with Iraq. So goes oil and the like. Last days Bush was in close talks with Turkey too. Guess the market might take It's toll at one point on the ever ample war expenditures some political leaders have started this new millennia.

St. Annaland Bob 11:41 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   

it's crude day, again!

Como Perrie 11:35 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 11:26 GMT November 1, 2007

this asean session found heavy disinvestments into the US treasury bonds...so might be the other way around too, bad news from US

GVI john 11:31 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in red navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
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Charts: Updated Bourses..
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

London NYAM 11:30 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Decided to exit my USDCAD longs at .9460. averaged about a 100p loss.

PAR 11:28 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Big 1.4400 euro option expiring tomorrow beeing defended .

Bon Air VA Dennis 11:26 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
interesting call by UBS on Cable calling for 210 then 213.50

must be those "strong" economic data coming out of late

London NYAM 11:18 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Bay did you start selling CADJPY?

Como Perrie 11:17 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
overall do suspect as a larger term reference this usdchf to print yet some 200 pips lower or so

London NYAM 11:14 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
mm// "You're not alone"...Olive. EurGbp getting slammed. I guess the Eur is all alone.

Como Perrie 11:14 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
more or less me just watching to start to reestablish anew the usdjpy shorts..

Toronto tn 11:09 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
mm -- some probably sleeping in after yesterday's marathon. I know I did.

madrid mm 10:59 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
thank you sweet mama 8-(O

Bon Air VA Dennis 10:58 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
we're here, just hiding from you mm ;-0

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:57 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
mm ...
you are not alone...
I read the forum while I cater some losing shorts in GBPJPY from 239.66 / 240.11 / 240.28

but enjoy the flow of views in here.. glgt all!!

Global-View 10:57 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Madrid, rest assured alot more are watching

Global-View 10:55 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
You left out the text and closing bracketed /a

madrid mm 10:54 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
it looks like only

Global-View
Toronto tn
Como Perrie
Melbourne Qindex
PAR

and me are present this morning European time ..... 8-)

PAR 10:39 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
GVI sorry , please explain what I did wrong with the hyperlink.

Global-View 10:33 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR, please complete your links, second time in two days we had to do cleanup. TIA

PAR 10:30 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
LINK

Toronto tn 10:30 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man

What is your view on CHF, and specifically gbp/chf? TIA.

Como Perrie 10:21 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
HKD recap from wednesday's moves follow two interventions by the HKMA last week, which were its first such actions in more than two years, causing speculation that Hong Kong might widen the peg, or drop it all together. For the time being the 1/4 cut in US has been followed suit by the HK authorities.
There are rumors that it's lobbying Beijing to drop the peg, dropping the mechanism and allow some wider fluctuations accordingly with the yuan hkd.

Even if the market is relative and minor as interventions has been said to be in the amount of modest 800 mios.

Melbourne Qindex 10:19 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above the 3-day pivot center at 1.4454.

PAR 10:04 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Ample liquidity provided by Fed is not going to the Us housing sector but finds its way into commodity ETF s, China ETF s, emerging markets ETF s , financial services ETF s etc.. Under Bernanke USA starts to export capital even faster than Japan . If he continues like that and Japan is an example Dow could fall back to around 3500 if Us interest rates would move to zero . Nikkei went from 40.000 to 7.000 while yen rates went to zero .

Gen dk 09:50 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:41 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
And that's the way the cookie crumbled... one day a zero and the next a mighty hero. Flat and done for the day. Happy hunting!

Como Perrie 09:37 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
oil from now on and into next months will start surprise both ways sharply..nor really predictable...

market is mostly flat after yesterday and some holidays in europe

van Gecko 09:31 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
level 1 bull stops wasted.. level 2 stops are running scare.. complacent buy on dip bulls adding good feeds for SOB bears (Sons Of Beatrices).. cheerio..

madrid mm 09:00 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and at least a dozen more banks gain new powers today to challenge the dominance of London Stock Exchange Plc and Deutsche Boerse AG, under Europe's biggest revision of securities laws.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOd0YaaFx.N8&refer=home

Jerusalem ML 08:56 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi all.
Euro to test 1.44 this morning,
1.4350 is next stop before ascending again

tomorr NFP could be strong.

G/L
M

madrid mm 08:55 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Oil Traders Increase Bets on $125 Crude as Options Trades Jump

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Oil traders increased bets that December futures will reach $125 a barrel because of possible disruptions to Middle East supplies and rising demand.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=av_HNRVcENRI&refer=home

Gen dk 08:41 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 08:41 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
and maybe except usdcad too ..as seemingly this is different story.

(amero speculations methinks mostly)

Como Perrie 08:39 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
except usdjpy and xxx/jpy most waiting just the next level to sell the buck again plus the xxx/jpy will make new highs once usdjpy goes back somewhere 116.50 to 117

PAR 08:33 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
BOJ intervention and Kampo aiming for stops above 116.00 .Fukui concerned about negative impact for Japan of Us subprime probems and Us economy which grows at only 3.9 % . Strong Nikkei helped by weakening yen supporting japanese exporters .

Como Perrie 08:33 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
as of reference for the usdcad, which goes on Its own apparently, am going back very distantly into the low printed in the 1944 at .9422

Como Perrie 08:25 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
this story had not yet come to an end imo..good dollar recovery this london opening, so far helped mostly by the usdjpy ..

much earlier have been buying again the usdcad...

others majors I see short term squeezing more than else...

those eurjpy and similar crosses might yet surprise sharply next days..

Melbourne Qindex 08:22 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : ... 1.4386 - 1.4417 // 1.4443 - 1.4458 - 1.4472 - 1.4503 - 1.4508 // 1.4529 - 1.4541 ...

madrid mm 08:22 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
previous post Click here

madrid mm 08:21 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
China to launch futures

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China will launch stock index futures soon and is ready to approve new quotas for foreign investors in the country's red hot stock markets, a senior exchange official said on Thursday. Click here

Melbourne Qindex 08:13 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.1535 - 1.1637.

Melbourne Qindex 07:44 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.9438. The next targeting lvel is 0.9360 - 0.9378.

madrid mm 07:43 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
if it goes on like this, all the people being paid n canadian $ will be able to work 3 months per year and spend 9 months outside Canada and live like kings and queens 8-)

Maribor 07:32 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
With some posting targets far far away, I will do the same today: some specific pattern would be competed (today?) if USDJPY prints 125+.

If it looks impossible or improbable, it probably is.

madrid mm 07:14 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
i wonder how CAD$ banknotes looked like in the 1800s 8-)...and are they still legal tenders ? lol

madrid mm 07:11 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
GM and hello FX Jedi from around the world...... 8-) and beyond maybe ...

-Gold touching $800;
-Crude oil "just $4 -$5" from $100 per barrel,
-Canadian dollar at its highest levels since the 1800s
-1.45 euro/us$
-and "funny monopoly money YEN" aka D Copperfield' s friend levitating over the ground using a force that operate opposite the gravity force 8-)

We definitely are living some interesting time !

gl gt

van Gecko 07:09 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Good amusing risk diversions with daily BS doing the forum walks.. :))

//Shenzhen CP 14:53 GMT October 31, 2007//.. Laowen?
ideal entry levels are only evident in hindsight & absolute entries are dependent on risk profile & trade management tactics.. but good risk entries may be present with daily reverse candle close below the previous low after an extended rise plus high time-frame price-tech/inter-market divergence.. there's no need to pollute classic trade rules with fancy high techs or funnymentals..
that said, Euro up here within this 1.4450/1.4550 band matching the old daddy Dmark highs is a great contra for BBB (Brave, Beautiful Bears) looking for those rare risk adjusted paydays.. an implusive take-out of the hourly 50ma would enhance the pip making odds for conservative bears or intra-day pikers.. fwiwW
have a nice one..




Melbourne Qindex 06:53 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is going to consolidate between 114.81 - 116.03 for the time being. Basically the market is vibrating aound 115.42 with an expected magnitude of 114.81 - 116.03.

Lahore FM 06:26 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 05:14 GMT November 1, 2007
Yes Azusa,i see your point and infact believe in it myself.just came across some info which showed that some persons do actually get lured by certain posts and fail to judge things for themselves.thanx anyway to remind me that it is a free forum which i support too.gtgl!

Monaco Oil man 06:24 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
116.10 $Y
170 EY
242 GBJPY friday.
gl

Nairobi SK 06:12 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Hi Who might predict where the USDJPY is headed?

hong kong nt 06:11 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
ZEUS -- just credit 10 million US$ into your demo accounts. you may add more crude shorts at 90, 95, 105, 120. I am sure the correction may happen eventually...

Melbourne Qindex 06:05 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It will consolidate between 2.0780 - 2.0849 and then tackle the barrier at 2.0886 // 2.0928.

hong kong nt 06:03 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
National Futures Association Dan Roth-President 04:24 GMT November 1, 2007

ZEUS -- please continue to post trades in your demo accounts. I am sure someone may find them of substantial entertainment value...

Goldcoast fxi 05:47 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD daily chart from 24/7/07 shows a potential "Gartley Butterfly reversal" pattern ?

GENEVA DS 05:37 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
A publication called "A History of the Canadian dollar" is published on the Bank of Canada's Web site at http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/dollar_book/ and shows the Canadian dollar was valued at US$2.78 in the late 1800s.



SOME WAY TO GO STILL... good day to all...

AZUSA 4x-ed 05:14 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:06 GMT October 31, 2007

FM, I quite agree with GE's comment that every post on this forum has a “buyer beware” disclaimer. Fail to see how a poster who claims that EUR/USD will print 1.5000 should be treated any different than someone who claims that same pair is on its way to 1.4000. If there is concern about the welfare of FX noobs, perhaps we should focus on exposing those that have been known to recruit on this forum with promises of “conservative” money management practices and who ultimately have managed to cripple if not ruin their clients’ accounts.

London NYAM 05:10 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD 8hr x1000 chart shows a very good 5 wave pattern with extended 3rd. The final leg starting from august 16th looks like its completing its wave 3 soon. Looking at 1 hour x1000 charts suggests that this wave 3 is still incomplete so shorting cad is a mistake. Why? I did believe it was over but the corrective sequences are constantly dragged down indicating the strength of the underlying trend is still too strong to make a reversal. The recent move makes sub .9400 likely.
Similarly AUDUSD is clearly not done.

Syd .. 05:09 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
IEA says oil prices will stay 'very high,' threatening global growth
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/31/business/oil.php

Van jv 05:04 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
George--that must be another "New Statistics" -sounds funny, said mildly
interesting, after talks about Euro-socialist countries.

as per OEDC taxes and regulations added to the cost of new investments
Canada 39%
US 37
Germany 30
Australia 24
Sweden 12.5%...

Melbourne DC 05:00 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 04:38 GMT November 1, 2007
fukui carry talk mayput a s/t damper on that via eurjpy .

Van jv 04:54 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
SYD.....feds policy? we will not have recession any more-we rather bubbly inflations and prosperous plutocracy

George Bush 04:51 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
The United States tops the overall ranking in The Global Competitiveness Report 2007-2008. Switzerland is in second position followed by Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Finland and Singapore, respectively.

Hong Kong Ahe 04:48 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
The USDYEN is keeping around 115.30 after the Fed rate cut through the morning session of the Asian market. It is quite abnormal or typically a manipulation there in not letting YEN strengthening. Thus, for carry traders, be aware if USDYEN breaking 115 and downward again to 114/113 area. GLGT. Me too.

Syd .. 04:48 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Oil market is out of our control, says Opec
OPEC oil ministers say they are powerless in the face of many factors driving up the price of crude, with one member of the producers' cartel warning that the 'market is out of control'.

Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli, president of Opec, told a conference in London yesterday that record oil prices are the result of speculative investment and international political tensions. "We are of course concerned about high oil prices," he said. But "the market is increasingly driven by forces beyond Opec's control".
Oil analysts at Goldman Sachs, which in July predicted that oil may reach $95 a barrel, told investors yesterday that it was time to "sell" oil
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/10/31/cnopec131.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

Syd .. 04:46 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Fed cuts rates but warns on inflation
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/01/cnfed101.xml

Syd .. 04:45 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Britain comes ninth in Competitiveness Index
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/01/cnsaudi101.xml

Syd .. 04:44 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   

Credit crunch 'may cause price fall'
The Bank of England's chief economist has warned that the credit crunch is likely to hit Britain's economic growth, and may cause house prices to drop.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/01/cnhouse101.xml

nyc nyc3 04:41 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
e/y approaching v of 5th ewave wise.

I say y starts gaining on USD, then euro tops from higher level. y explodes.

Shouldn't demo accts be fined when they lose?

Melbourne Qindex 04:39 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market may not move down to 1.4443 and it is likely that it will move ahead from 1.4458.

Melbourne Qindex 04:38 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Short term targeting range is 1.4498 - 1.4508.

Melbourne Qindex 04:34 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market may not move down to 1.4443 and it is likelty that it will move ahead from 1.4458.

Alaska Moon 04:28 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
OK, Guys.....Time out !!! All of you are grounded for a week....
LOL.....
Moon

National Futures Association Dan Roth-President 04:24 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
hong kong nt 04:09 GMT November 1, 2007

You have mail and you have been served. We have ordered a cease and desist of all of your bucket shop boiler room money management practices due to reckless losses (exceeding 80%) and fraudulent advertising. Charges are being processed. Court order to follow.

hong kong nt 04:09 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 01:21 GMT November 1, 2007

You have mail. Just send you login and password of several demo accounts. Continue to enjoy the fun here..

Alaska Moon 02:29 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
NYC PCM 01:57 GMT November 1, 2007
-----
You are absolutely correct. Most of the time on this forum, most traders are talking a trend which extends back some time.
For instance... If you look back to EUR/US for more than a month....yoiu will find the trend is long on all time frames above 1 hour chart.
Hardly any one here uses a 5 minute trend....
I normally use a 4 hour chart for 3 months, and if agrees with a 1 hour chart which reaches back a week... I call that a trend....
Moon

Monaco Oil man 01:59 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
A very simple way to trade when it's trending is just to buy the asian lows..
So yesterday an example : i added 2.0690 GBPUSD cause the asian low was around there an hour or 2 before fomc..
Not really important the support or resistance , just that it's trending so it goes eventually more up than down..

NYC PCM 01:57 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trend

This word can be misleading unless the period to which it is being applied is clearly stated.

Is it a trend over a 5 week period on a daily chart?

Is it a trend over a 12 month period on a weekly chart?

Is it a trend over a 2 hour period on a 5 minute chart?

Etc...etc......

Every market usually has numerous "trends" in force and without clear definition of "period" and cart time bar the use of the word is at risk of being meaningless.

Monaco Oil man 01:37 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
The way i see it , the US$ decline of the past few years is just an " aperçu " of what is unfolding at present...The decline is going to increase in speed with I% rate differential increasing , or at least perceived as increasing (increasing or even just going above for EURO).

Why not some big fat weekly bar till january 4 and feb 15 alla 2000...Plus winter time is usually not the good time for the US$..

GL.

FW CS 01:37 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Monsieur Oilman
great to see you here. You have mail. I don't know what will turn this $ around but this Euro high does not seem high enough yet.

Monaco Oil man 01:28 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Zeus :
I haven't been here in awhile, but you were predicting this a year ago , and ever since ...quote "the USD bull camp is growing and growing"...What makes you think 1.45 is the time for the USD reversal...I can see a move to the downside from here , even 1.41 or 1.40 , or even 1.38 , then what?...1.50?..
US cutting I% isn't exactly the reversal to a stronger US$ , but points to further decline...Money is no patriot ,and just goes where it's better cared for.

USA Zeus 01:21 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Well stated it already. My views and book are heavily biased for a massive USD run. Makes some here hostile to think of it but that is ok because in their mind prices only move in one direction. Time will prove who the MASSes are. Let's just leave it at that shall we? Well and heavily geared with leverage. I accept it as well as the outcome. Must use outsized risk for outsized returns and must load the wagon when the odds are there. They are and I am so be it.
Will hold the line for this reversal with that view even if it squeezes some. The trend is your friend. Mark this the beginning of the USD trend on your charts.

Will check back after to remind the antagonists what mASSes they were as we laugh our B's off!

Adios amigos. I now ride off in the sunset.

USA Zeus 01:09 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Well NT we know what you have done for your clients in that "conservative" portfolio down some 80%.

But hey Trick or treat. Looks like those buying EUR/USD and GBP/USD will get tricked on the reversal USD treat.

Happy Day!

hong kong nt 00:52 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
ZEUS -- Your demo account must go bust. Time for you to apply another demo...

Monaco Oil man 00:52 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
NZDJPY 92
NZDUSD 79 that's the targets on friday , and eurjpy still 170..

Traders should not buck the trends , it's the easiest way to lose money and nerves.
gt

Gen dk 00:40 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 00:40 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd .. 00:37 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Australian trade deficit widens to A$1.9 billion in September from August vs expectations of A$1 billion; imports down 3%, exports down 4%.

Syd .. 00:31 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Australia Sep Exports -4%, Imports -3%
Australian Sep Retail Sales +0.8% Vs +0.5% Consensus

Syd .. 00:31 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Australia Sep Trade Deficit A$1.86B Vs A$1.00B Consensus

Syd .. 00:29 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Zero tolerance to secession moves

Beijing Wednesday strongly warned Taipei against its intensified push for "Taiwan independence," saying the mainland will resort to necessary measures to defend its national sovereignty and territorial integrity.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-11/01/content_6221430.htm

Syd .. 00:27 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
Fuel prices raised by 8% from Nov. 1
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-11/01/content_6220958.htm

Syd .. 00:25 GMT November 1, 2007 Reply   
I want Hillary Clinton to be president
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml;jsessionid=5AG3TQZBRF51LQFIQMFSFF4AVCBQ0IV0?xml=/opinion/2007/11/01/do0101.xml

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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