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Forex Forum Archive for 11/06/2007

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HK [email protected] 23:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 23:46 GMT November 6, 2007

I thought the French have good manners, actually they should be champions of it.
Is that correct to talk to the Chinese that way before the visit or is he talking to the US Gov.
Just make the Chinese smile to him and kick his a s s with nice promises. As usual.
----------------------------------------------------------
Yen must penetrate again to 114/114.50 band to spark intervention or it may begin to correct lower.

Syd .. 23:52 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Arch critic calls for Citigroup to be broken up
Wall Street Correspondent
The analyst who triggered the departure of Citigroup chairman and chief executive Charles "Chuck" Prince has called on his successors to break up the banking conglomerate.

Syd .. 23:51 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
7 November 2007 Markets fear banks have $1 trillion in toxic debt
A new phase in the credit crunch, one of “$1 trillion losses” seems to be dawning. The crisis at Citigroup and renewed doubts about some of the world’s leading banks disquieted stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic yesterday, with the fractious mood set to continue.The Chancellor, Alistair Darling, also pleaded for calm. “We are experiencing an unparalleled period of financial uncertainty caused by the problems in the US housing market,” he said. “I believe that we can get through that. Many banks in this country have very strong balance sheets after years of making very good profits.”

Meanwhile, on the continent, newspaper reports named two German banks – WestLB and a small specialised bank for professional people – as possible next victims of the crisis.
http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article3132507.ece

USA BAY 23:51 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
No problem Dr Q, take your time. Thanks a lot.

Syd .. 23:46 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
"I will say to our Chinese friends, 'you have been spectacularly successful ... you don't need an undervalued currency to win'," he said.

"It is not even useful. It creates imbalances and, at the end of the day, these imbalances impact you too," he added.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL0651410820071106?rpc=44

Dallas 23:41 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Toronto

HK [email protected] 23:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
I want to have a correction to my 1.47xx target.

I compute and found that Euro is heading to 1.4850, so it will not be a very good idea to short it until seen that level.

GL/GT

Toronto yv 23:35 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Dallas 23:22 .http://www.nni.nikkei.co.jp/CF/FR/MKJ/

Melbourne Qindex 23:30 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:11 GMT - I will take a look after I have updated my clients webpages. It will be an hour.

Christchurch JPR 23:24 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Am just starting out in forex & have no open positions .

Is this a good time to start buying US$ or will I be just standing in front of a freight train ?

Dallas 23:22 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone know where to find Nikkei futures?

saopaulo cg 23:20 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
RF, you are right . The big problem is to be long yens that day !!!! at least not short !!!!!

Gen dk 23:20 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK [email protected] 23:19 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 23:09 GMT November 6, 2007
RF and Q//your intuition is very incisive.

____________________________________________________

Happy to hear I have some intuition. That what a computer has not + stop loss and all is ok.

USA BAY 23:11 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
MELBOURNE QINDEX,

DR Q, Could you kindly share your bias for aud/cad and gbp/chf. tia

London NYAM 23:09 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
RF and Q//your intuition is very incisive.

Syd .. 23:08 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bond insurers set off fresh wave of credit panic
Fitch Ratings has threatened to downgrade a clutch of top US bond insurers in a move that could set off a fresh credit crisis and cause contagion across America's $2,400bn (£1,150bn) municipal bond market.This could force pension funds, mutual funds, and institutions to liquidate holdings on a vast scale, causing the credit crisis to spread into areas that have remained unscathed until now.

The group of companies - known as financial guarantors, or 'monoliners' - play a crucial role in wrapping and guaranteeing bonds, with a total of $2,000bn of insured paper on their books.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=DKPHALGJCZKS3QFIQMGCFFOAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/11/06/bcnfitch106.xml

Maribor 23:08 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Well, it looks like AUDUSD is going up further like it did from middle aug...but maybe it will soon go to a trip to 0,83x...or I am wrong.

HK [email protected] 23:08 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
London 23:00 GMT November 6, 2007

Wish I had.

Dallas 23:07 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Doc, I have the same feeling.

Melbourne Qindex 23:01 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Dallas 22:54 GMT - GBP/JPY : It may vibrate around 239.56 with an expected magnitude of 237.85 - 241.28. The movement of USD/JPY is the key here. I have a feeling that USD/JPY will go lower.

London 23:00 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 22:56 GMT do you have a report on that

Syd .. 22:56 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Risk of securities fire sale mounts
November 6 2007 21:44

The threat of fire sales of mortgage-backed securities is mounting as rating agency downgrades have pushed complex debt vehicles into technical default.

The prospect of forced sales of assets comes as a US Treasury-backed plan for a “superfund” to stabilise troubled credit markets appears to have stalled.

Rating agencies Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s have received default notices for $5bn worth of the vehicles, known as collaterlalised debt obligations, in recent weeks, giving investors in senior tranches the right to sell assets. Default notices can be triggered when the portfolio underlying a CDO is downgraded

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/17f683c2-8c9b-11dc-b887-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

HK [email protected] 22:56 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
The most kept secret of the market is the amount which was indeed lost through derivatives mostly connected to mortgage loans.
I want to see the the yen at the day that it will be officially estimated at 1000billions USD mostly financed by yen loans.

On that day yen will get it's biggest appreciation in lifetime, and no one will be able to stop it.
Until then the Japanese will have to continue their lies about their ailing economy just to delay interest rise, or even try to cut interest rates.
Yen is a non difusable time bomb. Just sit relaxed and wait for the explosion.

Dallas 22:54 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, your thoughts on gbp/jpy would be greatly appreciated, thanks.

USA Zeus 22:53 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the USD is in a full cycle reversal phase now. Look for EUR/USD and GBP/USD to crumble.

Data is Euroland to start looking negative.


tchau for now.

Melbourne Qindex 22:48 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is aiming further at 1.4595 - 1.4620 - 1.4656.

Melbourne Qindex 22:40 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is working on the barrier at 1.4543 // 1.4573. The weekly cycle upside targeting points are 1.4661 and 1.4713.

HK [email protected] 22:37 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
.

Who will buy gold jewelries at that levels???

Only a weak man who is afraid to loose his girl !!!

Syd .. 22:36 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
RBA: Labor Costs Growth Contained So Far

Philadelphia Caba 22:34 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
RBA Says By Q1 2008 Both Measures Of Inflation Likely Above 3%

Pecs Andras 22:34 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Sorry I was wrong, it is a 25 bp hike

Philadelphia Caba 22:32 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
RBA Lifts Rates 25 BPS To 6.75% From 6.50

Pecs Andras 22:31 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
RBA unch

Melbourne Qindex 22:29 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is under pressure when it is below 0.9231. The market is going to test the supporting strength of the monthly cycle projected series at 0.9127 // 0.9178*.


Melbourne Qindex 12:42 GMT November 6, 2007
USD/CAD : The market can easily move between 0.9231 - 0.9278 - 0.9290. The next downside consolidating ranges are 0.9034 - 0.9073 - 0.9089 - 0.9103. There is a gap, 123 pips, between 0.9103 - 0.9231.

Alaska Moon 22:24 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 22:05 GMT November 6, 2007
i agrre moon, but will you do it at any specifical target? TIA
========
No, cg....I don't trade on anything I read or hear....I simply trade on what I see.....
I am probably not much help to you ...LOL
Moon

Auckland JJ 22:17 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Sydney

Sydney GE 22:16 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Auckland JJ 22:10 GMT November 6, 2007

22:30 gmt or in about 13 minutes

HK [email protected] 22:15 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:10 GMT November 6, 2007

You may add Eur/usd shorts at above 1.47 I think you will make better from that level, so you may whistle a happy tune too.

Syd .. 22:11 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Plosser Shows Resistance To Further Rate Cuts -NYT

Even if the economy slows sharply in the final quarter of this year, some policymakers at the Federal Reserve are opposed to cutting rates again at their next meeting in December, the New York Times reported Tuesday on its Web site, citing Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles I. Plosser.

In an unusually blunt interview, Plosser said he already expected growth to slow to an annual pace of 1.5% or less. But he said he would not support another rate cut unless the slowdown appeared to be even sharper than that, according to the Times.

Auckland JJ 22:10 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone tell me what time RBA releases interest rate details.

USA Zeus 22:10 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 09:36 GMT November 6, 2007

Don't know what you are talking about "pal". Must be a third set here- those who talk about others who "do it". Thx for the sucker punch though.


Ok well remaining few shorts on commods were stopped at b/e. Add'l shorts added on EUR/USD 1.4563 and GBP/USD 2.0891 from a bit earlier. Not posted here in R/T- my apologies. Too dammm busy with everything for that.

Also Fresh shorts on gold contracts at 827.50 and crude oil 96.96. SP 500 short 15424.25

Ok- Happy Day!

budapest 22:08 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi.Im new. What about cad/jpy?

saopaulo cg 22:05 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
i agrre moon, but will you do it at any specifical target? TIA

LJ BK 22:01 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 20:28 GMT November 6, 2007
I think the USD/CAD will go to 0.89 just to clean all those who bought at 1.00 and a bit below

I would say they're gone by now.

AZUSA 4x-ed 21:52 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Moody’s analysis fwiw: “Members of the FOMC had the latest lending surveys results in hand at their October meeting. The Fed has already cut its funds rate target by 75 basis points in order to keep the restrictions on credit from further weakening the housing market and the broader economy. If tighter lending conditions are to prompt additional easing, it will require a clear signal of a weakening economy and not just a forecast of it. This message was explicit in the latest FOMC statement.

Alaska Moon 21:50 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
saopaulo cg 21:42 GMT November 6, 2007
========
Well...I would not do it yet....with eur/yen steaming above 167...
Moon

Washington DC 21:49 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
France's Sarkozy - weak dollar not in US interests

saopaulo cg 21:42 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
according to Greenspan today coment, we should sell the euro and buy asian currencies.

GVI john 21:28 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
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Syd .. 21:13 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Housebuilder Bovis Homes has warned that sales volumes and average prices will be lower than expected this autumn, as consumer confidence slides on global credit woes."Recent events in the financial markets have adversely affected consumer confidence, resulting in sales being lower than anticipated during the key autumn selling period
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/06/bcnbov106.xml

London 21:05 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Saudi Official:GCC Armies Ready For Possible US-Iran War -AFP

dc CB 21:00 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 20:51 GMT November 6, 2007

add the story about Bear's Cayne smoking pot to this one and, aren't we seeing a bit of Murdoch in the financial press. No tthat he's responsible, but the style...like the style of the NY Post. lol.

Oh, any re my SnP post. GOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAL!

Syd .. 20:51 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Supermodel Gisele Not in Buffett's Bear Camp on Dollar After All, Manager Tells CNBC
But just a few minutes ago, CNBC Squawk Box producer Stephanie Landsman spoke by telephone with Anne Nelson, Bundchen's manager. Nelson tells us reports that Gisele wants to be paid in euros are "false." Nelson's take: "Some idiot in Brazil reported something just to make news."
Nelson points out that Gisele lives in New York City, and thus needs U.S. dollars for her big-city lifestyle.

Syd .. 20:45 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Greenspan Says Dollar Won't Fall More Against Euro

LINK

dc CB 20:31 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Apple up on talk of IPhone going to China?

also: more debt bombs coming (?)

Risk of securities fire sale mounts - FT

FT reports the risk of fire sales of securities was rising after rating agencies declared that a clutch of complex debt vehicles had defaulted and signs emerged that the "superfund" plan backed by the US Treasury had stalled. The developments are likely to raise investor fears and increase pressure on US authorities to take measures to shore up sentiment in the credit world. Financial mkts continued to be gripped by worries about further subprime-related writedowns, driving the dollar to new lows and gold to a 28-year high. The $75 bln superfund plan seems to be on ice following the upheaval at Citi­group, which lost its chief executive on Sunday after admitting it faced mortgage-related writedowns of up to $11 bln. "As far as we can see, it appears dead in the water right now," said one senior Wall Street banker.

toronto Dr Unken Katt 20:28 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
AMS MAXXIM 20:02

you narrow tunnel vission

Geneva 20:28 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
I think the USD/CAD will go to 0.89 just to clean all those who bought at 1.00 and a bit below

dc CB 20:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Fund buying time. Need to close SnP cash above 50Dma of 1514.32. Dow cash is a much longer pull 13691 and change.

PAR 20:15 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Weaker yen and strong Us stock market may sent Nikkei sharply higher .

AMS MAXXIM 20:12 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
bidetask

AMS MAXXIM 20:08 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
600000 liters of water went somewhere fire down under?

jkt rick 20:07 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
everyone talks about the yen bubble, but when will it burst.according to the rule,a corrective wave should last longer then the previous impulse wave. so when did wave 3 start?
the downmove started in 1982 november and w3 ended in 1995 march thats 12 years and 4 months so the correction w4 should last for atleast 12 years and 4 months.

1995 april + 12 years and 4 months = 2007 AUGUST. the minimum amount of time for the entire downmove correction has been met. this should be interesting for everyone.

AMS MAXXIM 20:02 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt 19:01 GMT November 6, 2007

hocuspocusfocus buy pipFelines or apply for name change

Brisbane Flip 19:56 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
NYC Bill Gross said (well before the sub-prime mess) many months ago that he thought Fed would cut rates quickly to at least 4.5% by Q1 2008 but that inflation would return and the FOMC would be forced to U turn as global growth would continue inabatted despite a US slowdown. He also highlighted the ratings agencies sub-prime mess and housing eons before the her So now we have had the Fed cut rates agressively and oil and commodities have continued to appreciate with global inflation pressures still impacting. So unless the world implodes (and price pressures peak) optimistically price US Bonds will be devalued by inflation (i.e. intrest higher rates) by the beginning of 2009 the Fed will be forced to change tack again and embark on another round of rate hikes.

saopaulo cg 19:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
“euro-usd currency adjustment is already finished,'' Greenspan said in Tokyo, source ANZ Group research analyst.

jkt rick 19:22 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
usd/yen

PAR 19:19 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Us stocks making healthy gain on expectations of lower Us interest rates and more Fed rate cuts .

toronto Dr Unken Katt 19:01 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
part of the global masonic conspiracy
see the movie "zeitgeist" on the net, very intersting stuff

PAR 18:49 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Sarkosy, Lagarde, Trichet all the same. They come to USA and get brainwashed. They come back in Europe and say a weak dollar is good for everybody and carry trades help finance world economic expansion.

PAR Cecilia 18:48 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 18:09 GMT November 6, 2007
Counsidering les dames on his list, oui il y a de fortes chances.

NYC NYC 3 18:27 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
irrelevant is Gross.
guy has quite a long term track record ,bu t
has made no sense in recent yrs and has been very wrong.
he is cornered long a hUGE prot of US fixed income stuff.

+ 5 ytrsago he was on CNBC yelling one thing , while his traders fed the mkt the otherway. Germans can have him, his fund will fail big soon.

NYC NYC 3 18:22 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy , french have innate selfdestruction genes?

Helsinki iw 18:09 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR, do you think the dolar will strenghten once Sarkozy is done?

MADRID mm 18:02 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:59 GMT November 6, 2007
Nothing JP. I wa writing about 2 different subjects in the same post 8-)



LND sd 17:58 GMT November 6, 2007
Why?
Well, if you are short USD/CAD you prefer the pair to go down nad vice versa

New york city 17:59 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Ive been trading censored MT4 demo for a little over a month with no problems. I noticed today one of my trades was mysteriously closed out for a loss. I had plenty of margin (16k acct, traded 5 minis closed at -40 pips)

Is this a common occurence?

PAR 17:59 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
I have sneaky suspicion that Sarkosy uses his visit to Bush in Washington as an alibi to do some great american shopping and benefit from the weak Us dollar. That s probably why he became silent about the strong Euro and now that he got himself a big salary raise ... let the american shopping start and avoid high French VAT .

Mtl JP 17:59 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
mm 17:55 - what does RBA have to do with cad$ ?

LND sd 17:58 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Why?

Mtl JP 17:58 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
LND sd 17:45 / depends on if you subscribe to the power of (non) existent trends. This dlcad puppy is a sell while under 9550ish on daily close basis. Market dlrcad price-action challenging standard notions of what is or not "oversold"

MADRID mm 17:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
LND sd 17:45 GMT November 6, 2007
i guess it depends on which side of the trade you sit 8-)


There is actualy a consensus that RBA will increae rate by 6.75% ?

USA BAY 17:50 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE M,

Can you pls comment on aud/cad. tia

LND sd 17:45 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Just wonder when we will see the USD/CAD above parity!!!???!!! any body ?

warsaw TOMi 17:42 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt 17:06 GMT November 6, 2007

yeah, I might as well do that :100 down and then up 370 pips, risky to short then.. kacik ;-)

MADRID mm 17:40 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Va Raven 17:19 GMT November 6, 2007

Believe you me Raven, you have not seen the half of it yet .

PAR has a a real personnal way of posting. 8-)

He has a very clear voice and he's useful even if you don't agree with him. 8-)

All that IMHO of course.

FW CS 17:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:15 GMT November 6, 2007
What seems to be true in any country is the politicians and bankers blame anybody else but themselves

Va Raven 17:19 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Great sense of humor, PAR, love it!

PAR 17:15 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
And then they blame the japanese slowdown on Us subprime problems. Unbelievable .

PAR 17:08 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
I did not invent it . Itis actually true. New eartquake legislation made it impossible to built.

toronto Dr Unken Katt 17:06 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
TOMIk short your ding dong

Va Raven 17:00 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Lol, PAR!
Thanks, FM.

NYC 16:58 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR, that consipracy theory is even too farfetched for you.

PAR 16:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
By issuing no building permits due to new legislation Japanese construction sector is collapsing . Done on purpose to weaken the yen and help Japanese exporters .

warsaw TOMi 16:54 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
can see g/j targeting 24141 again ,will buy from 23800-23780 zone stop below 23690

Lahore FM 16:54 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 16:51 GMT November 6, 2007
short jpy everywhere.

warsaw TOMi 16:51 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
yes, FM any idea? u short or long this pair?

hong kong nt 16:51 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Will FED lower rate to 3%? another 0.25% cut this year? 1.25% cut in 2008?

Lahore FM 16:49 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Va Raven 16:46 GMT November 6, 2007
gbpjpy further shortened by some!

Va Raven 16:46 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
What's the g/j?

warsaw TOMi 16:42 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
anyone any good level to establish long g/j and e/j,please?

LJ BK 16:37 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
hong kong nt 15:32 GMT November 6, 2007
FX trio -- when FXxx, CMx and dbxx all give suggestion on one direction (dollar bounce this week), the odds highly favor trades on the other direction

Eurusd is just slowly rising and I guess it's quite likely it will go into parabollic before it reverses. Oil, gold and cad already did. I think usdcad is the one ripe for a reversal.. OK I've been thinking that at 0,95 already, but now, at almost 15% away from 200 MA on daily I don't see any room for downside anymore. Besides, I find options on usdcad very cheap at the mom and since I'm going ag the trend it is much safer than playing on the spot.

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
“The euro-U.S. currency adjustment is already finished,'' Greenspan said at a forum in Tokyo via satellite, according to Richard Tabor Greene, a professor at Kwansei Gakuin University in Osaka, who attended the event.

This statement coupled with the following former ECB’s policy member Otmar Issing:

“The first priority in central-bank communication is not to give inappropriate signals. Central banks must under no circumstances voluntarily create uncertainty. Central banks are tempted to give too much weight to short-term expectations. In case of communication failures, the strongest critiques come from those who will lose money. Code words are a way to deal with this short-term uncertainty.”

Should give a warm, fuzzy feeling on how connected and in touch with reality these guys are. Happy hunting!

hong kong nt 15:37 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EURO -- during dollar down cycle, barring any intervention, it is not a surprise if Euro may rise 20-25 big figures from year low (1.29)..fwiw..

hong kong nt 15:32 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
FX trio -- when FXxx, CMx and dbxx all give suggestion on one direction (dollar bounce this week), the odds highly favor trades on the other direction...

London DG 15:31 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Thx for that! Equities a bit tame today no real news lets hope that they tread above water.

London NYAM 15:25 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
my limit sells may get hit today or tomorrow. My t/ps perhaps a week if they move in the right 'structure.'It will depend on how much a bounce can be made in equities If S&P breaks 1530 area in an impulsive way then i will probably exit if my stops arent hit.

London DG 15:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM.

what time frame you targeting there?

Thx

London NYAM 15:17 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Sold 1/3 EURUSD 1.4560 Order to sell at EURUSD 1.4590 and stop at 1.4632 and 1.4668 targeting 1.4410 and 1.42.60 area.

Mtl JP 15:16 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
NYC jr 14:54 / Soros can keep his ccy destination secret. Here is Bill Fleckenstein's ccy destination:
xera: a combination of Xerox, for the piece of Xerox paper that it is; lira, which in the past was one of the world's chronically weak currencies; and, most importantly, the fact that it sounds like zero. That is ultimately where the xera is headed.

NYC jr 15:16 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
And then you have a lowly analyst at CIBC who senses this is her chance to make her career. And a guy on CNBC every hour who moments after a couple useless sentences of "inside reporting," shamelessly and repeatedly plugs his new book. Don't believe the hype hah!

Budapest Z 15:10 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
nyam, or he was just messing with the audience...i doubt he, who is a person fully aware of his limits, would make that as a serious comment ;)

Denver AL 14:59 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
JR
re Famous for his speculative attack ...This was a multi month campaign started in Feb of that year.. Good Job but.
noone talks about the 675 million he lost in one day on the JPY the year later

London NYAM 14:59 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
jr//“I know exactly where the currencies are going to but I'm not going to tell that to you,”
That was an unfortunate comment. If he knows then he would have put on a position and then to tell would have made no difference at all. Unless he is waiting for a better opportunity to enter...?

NYC jr 14:54 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Here's another one with an agenda:

Billionaire investor George Soros forecast on Monday that the U.S. economy is “on the verge of a very serious economic correction” after decades of overspending.
“We have borrowed an awful lot of money and now the bill is oming to us,” he said during a lecture at the New York University, also adding that the war on terror "has thrown America out of the rails."

Asked whether a recession was inevitable, Soros said: “I think we are definitely in for a slowdown that I think will be a bigger slowdown than (Fed Chairman Ben) Bernanke is seeing.”

Famous for his speculative attack on the Bank of England that made him more than $1 billion, Soros declined to nominate which currencies are more vulnerable currently. He also declined to comment specifically on the dollar.

“I know exactly where the currencies are going to but I'm not going to tell that to you,” he told the audience.

St. Annaland Bob 14:43 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
this out Deutsche Bank's daily report:

"...We will pit our euro-dollar strategy with the likes of Gisele Bundchen, et al, and place a bullish euro strategy below the market at 1.4375, with a risk-limit at 1.4335. We see resistance overhead at 1.4530 and beyond that, at 1.4630..."

Gisele the market maker :-)

NYC jr 14:41 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Or should I take my cues from Bob Pisani?

NYC jr 14:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
So buy bonds?

PAR 14:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Nyc / In june Gross and his friend Greenspan were convinced that long term Us rates would move to 6 % . When G (Gross) or G (Greenspan ) speaks I turn off the sound .

toronto Dr Unken Katt 14:37 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
on the contrary , besides he thinx we r 1yr away from hitting the bottom

NYC jr 14:35 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
I feel like Gross is being given undue weight because he's been right for a short while. People forget that he was wrong for the 4 years prior to July (since I've been paying attention). If people know your job is always pushing bonds, it should make you pretty irrelevant.

Gen dk 14:34 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cbj Jake 14:34 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
jp - Communist! - so 1950!! Must be more relevant and nuanced ways to articulate it.

Mtl JP 14:25 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt 14:16 / Gross sounds like a Communist, maybe he is.

denver jake 14:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
denver jake 18:45 GMT November 2, 2007
Maribor 18:41 GMT November 2, 2007

Yep, capitulation buying. It's going to 2.07 minimum poss 2.055/2.05 very soon. within 48 hours (starting Sunday of course :) )

Her highness is being very stubborn. I went flat when she broke back above the 55 SMA. Very suspicious price action. A fall is still in the cards...

Stockholm za 14:16 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   

EUR/USD… 4h/50pip given is the reaction spike at 1,4635.
Stable above 1,4483 with damage control at 1,4406.
Channelling 1,4921 at the moment ….
All good to go ……..
Happy trades…….

toronto Dr Unken Katt 14:16 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bill Gross, chief investment officer at the world's No. 1 bond fund PIMCO, told CNBC Television the Fed could not afford to let U.S. housing prices fall sharply and would need to cut rates aggressively, perhaps to 3.5 percent.

It has already slashed rates by 75 basis points to 4.5 percent in an effort to limit damage to the broader economy from the housing market slide and resulting liquidity crunch

slv sam 14:10 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
euro on its way to 1.4650 but I am not gambling here!GT

Plovdiv Gotin 14:10 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Yes, but ih 2.0900 hold.

London DG 14:06 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin

Thx for the info just for clarification you mean 2.0365 in 2weeks right?

Plovdiv Gotin 14:04 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Important upside sup.2.0894

London DG 14:04 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
2.06 first and wait and see I am in for the long term. Doing this because i dont think any more rate cut in the US, think FED will make the banks feel a little pain first. UK slowing down and the numbers reflect that. US non farm pay rolls in Oct were good and service sector on the move. You are probably right 2.10 will be tested. IMO i feel that these levels are getting a little silly, yet people are also quoting 2.13 so you never know!

Plovdiv Gotin 14:00 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
London DG
if 2.0900 not hold-->2.0913/85/2.1030/40.If hold-->1.0365 in 2 weeks

Hong Kong YH 13:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
London DG 13:45 GMT November 6, 2007

You are shorting GBP? May I know your target?

London DG 13:45 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Thx for your comment YH good job i am short :-))

saopaulo cg 13:38 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
ok DS.

PAR 13:37 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Brent and crude at new all time highs . Less than 4% away from $ 100 oil .

GENEVA DS 13:33 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
saopaolo...
can you forgive me changing my opinion all 2 weeks ? I really do apologize if I misguided you. I think 25 years ago, we could keep our opinions for a decade, now , if you want to make money , you need to change all 2 weeks... in some weeks or month... you will have to change every hour to be LONG TERM Succesful... that is the world we live in ... gl gt

Hong Kong YH 13:31 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
London DG 13:27 GMT November 6, 2007

2.02, impossible, except stock market collapse and lead to carry trade unwind like August, otherwise, impossible. 2.1 is a must to test, see USD tonight? 76.12!!! No one want to keep USD

saopaulo cg 13:27 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 12:16 GMT October 22, 2007
.... and EURJPY... ? looks sick long term , but may be some last attempt to 163ish before 150 again ? any feelings there my friend ? txs

this guy, DS, talks always about long term trends but changes his opinions every two weeks....

London DG 13:27 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi All,

Trying to gather opinion on cable in the short term 3/4 weeks. Do people think we could go 2.13 or south to say 2.02?

Appreciate you comments
Thx!

GENEVA DS 13:24 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
like Japan had with NINTENDO.

GENEVA DS 13:23 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Probably JPY has again 20 years advance on all others...

PAR 13:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Geneva / Agree , while EUR, CAD, CHF, AUD, GBP are at or near all time highs JPY is already 45% below its all time high .

GENEVA DS 13:15 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
have this funny feeling that we have soon to prepare a MASSIVE USD-Bull run..... in USDJPY !... this crazy one refuse to go down and more and more I believe that BOJ and company wants it back up to 125 plus... ! this would then probably squeeze the rest of forex speculators as most are already gambling on reversal of EURUSD .... together we could see EURJPY breaking through 169.00 soon and next stop is 200 .... all the best.

PAR 13:06 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
After pumping €100 of billions into the european banking system to help his friends Trichet could be warning about inflation risks . Where did he study economics ?

Melbourne Qindex 12:42 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market can easily move between 0.9231 - 0.9278 - 0.9290. The next downside consolidating ranges are 0.9034 - 0.9073 - 0.9089 - 0.9103. There is a gap, 123 pips, between 0.9103 - 0.9231.

GVI john 12:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
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Melbourne Qindex 12:38 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : We may have seen the daily high already if the market retraces all the way below 1.4500.


Melbourne Qindex 06:35 GMT November 6, 2007
EUR/USD : Barriers are located at 1.4520 and 1.4530.
.

Melbourne Qindex 06:30 GMT November 6, 2007
EUR/USD : The first two targets are 1.4543 and 1.4569.

Lahore FM 12:34 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
i think slv sam typoed.it is 0.8900 for the stops.

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:33 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
extremely delighted to see some many on one side of the mkt holding no hope for those with an opposite view :)

Bon Air VA Dennis 12:33 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
extremely delighted to see some many on one side of the mkt holding no hope for those with an opposite view :)

slv sam 12:33 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
back in 1 hour )

London NYAM 12:31 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai he got rid of his MIA thats got to be worth a 26 figure loss!
Stop under 90 might be more reasonable though. Juts in case the wife finds out.

slv sam 12:30 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 12:26 GMT
NO PAIN NO GAIN!
at 0.69 I will be worth 70% of what I am now! still not bad!GT

mumbai Navin 12:29 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 12:21 GMT November 6, 2007
Sold everything including mother in law and bought usdcad at 0.9248 for long term. stop loss 0.69 otherwise position will keep open till realize profit at 1.05 or 1.08.It is a gamble but worth taking! GT

Sam - isnt the risk reward bad - .69 is some 23 big figs away while 1.08 just a 15odd...

hong kong seek 12:26 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 12:21 GMT November 6, 2007
hi guy ..y not sell yourself also.:)
.nothing 's sure in the market...

slv sam 12:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Sold everything including mother in law and bought usdcad at 0.9248 for long term. stop loss 0.69 otherwise position will keep open till realize profit at 1.05 or 1.08.It is a gamble but worth taking! GT

Como Perrie 12:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
am off into bernanke again...too smelly more than illogical to me

Como Perrie 12:14 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 12:06 GMT November 6, 2007

Think he took from some of the older 20s 30s that sentence.

Btw alghoritmic ran prices are illogical by nature, hence evolution at early steps was always illogical to most. Think the principle of such maths hidden into central banks APIs is just to avoid the so called (what a top engeneer at IBM some 30 years ago already forecasted)...the electronic chain order disaster...but as in quantum distribution you can manage one or several realities in apparent stability mode, you throw the other variables into other disaster..hence a time delay game they do play so to manage the western world under sort of chapter 11...

call It illogicall is too good and maybe help some feel better... I would say It's terrible noticing we are done and progressively falter one by one

Monaco Oil man 12:08 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 11:38 GMT November 6, 2007

I just have it as AUDNZD and not NZDAUD..The pair is ranging 1.16-1.20 , not a good carry , with still an upside bias, so no interests.
GL.

London NYAM 12:07 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Decent bounce on CAD. Lets see if it filters through to the other pairs...

GVI john 12:06 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
"Markets can remain illogical longer than we can remain solvent" Dennis Gartman

from the Global-View learning center

Como Perrie 12:02 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Think climate cycle is clearer than ever, maybe the buck follows the yen path

http://sciencehack.com/videos/view/jIIAyLmY5Yk

London NYAM 11:44 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Dennis//Well she is the richest of the supermodels so she may be a day or two early from the top. Personally I like watching the Supermodels here...

Bon Air VA Dennis 11:41 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
"FINTAG COMMENT


Today, we celebrate shallowness and liabilities. If you think your house is going to go up, you feel good. If you think it is going to go down, you feel bad. If you have head hunters ringing you up all day long, you feel good. If you find yourself in the departure lounge, you feel bad. And so on.

So where are we on the cycle? It appears denial is still king although some small tears are starting to show in the bubble. Cliches are the new black.

When supermodels reject the USD, then this must be the turning point in the demise of the USA. Enough of this amateur analysis and back onto what really matters.

PAR 11:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy to vist Bush and praise him for his strong leadership and for ... the strong Us dollar . Lol.

Maribor 11:38 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Oil man: do you care to comment on NZDAUD? In my analysis it goes to ~0,88 or higher...

London NYAM 11:37 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 11:25//yes my strategy has been to try and find the target points where seller interest would come in and the pattern could be considered for a potential top. Then scale out as we go down. Stops for me here on this one are pretty tight as 2.0940/60 break would give 2.10 and then i would wait to see the next level i have which is 2.1120/60.
Watching USDCAD to see if it can stay above .9218. That would help the cause. glgt

Como Perrie 11:37 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
the whole to me lives under strange not anymore that hidden uncertainty...

morgan stanley yesterday was roumoring about an FED intervention to save the buck

Como Perrie 11:35 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:26 GMT November 6, 2007

Actually It was some asean and eastern european banks sold the buck in sizes...

PAR 11:26 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Strong German industry orders sent EUR to new highs .

Makassar Alimin 11:25 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:10 GMT November 6, 2007

NYAM, no 2.10 in your radar? i have been scaling out core long since last week and leaving 25% now for an overshoot

Monaco Oil man 11:24 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
You know why carry go down super fast ?..Well it's easy...So that carry traders can go right back at them , not to waste too many rolls.
gl

Gen dk 11:17 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bodrum OEE 11:12 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   

Toronto,

TN,

I just went through the archives and saw no posts of mine between March and August 2007 when I made an explicit call downside (as I did late February and mid August). I did give reasons why it should not go there and pointed out where it should be. I was surprised/baffled when it did not. I value currencies in competence I hope (my third involvement and the one that makes me a windbag theoritician in your eyes) and the status quo looked odd at the time.

You may want to take people like me into acount next time around because for instance while GBP/JPY went up for about 2900 pips, in other words 21pips/a day between March and August mid 2007, during the the falls the pace was 188 daily, 9 times of the former.

Good bye all, as I need to go (this time and I will keep my word to be out for a while)

regards

Gen dk 11:12 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 11:10 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Getting to that point soon towards USDGBP where a pop over 2.0900 is starting to look appealing for a contra. A double top perhaps at 2.0898 or a pop through to 2.0940 both limits in for me.

Melbourne Qindex 10:38 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The weekly cycle downside targeting points are 0.9037 and 0.9126 (Provide the downside market momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.9199).

Gen dk 10:34 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Monaco Oil man 10:23 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
With the market being net long JPY IMM and thx, if it starts moving above 115.50 then , it might create the big shuffle and thus the move to 119.
Tonight's IMM positioning will reveal some clues if the corporates are selling the yen now.

Melbourne Qindex 10:13 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Rio Tinto Analistafx 10:03 GMT - USD/CAD : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 0.9293. The weekly cycle pivot center is located at 0.9199 - 0.9293 and a projected supporting point is positioning at 0.9262.

Bodrum OEE 10:13 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 10:05 GMT November 6, 2007

leaving the space to much more valuable comments with these corrections with my apologies

(by and opinion adversary mind you)

and=an

(and I was not recognized in the forum in for my late February one)

no "in" there

PAR 10:10 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Euro zone sep retaill sales +0.3 % m/m, +1.6 Y/Y . Welll below forecast despite sharply higher gasoline, gasoil, gas, electricity and food prices . Euro zone economy moving into STAGFLATION .

Lahore FM 10:07 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 10:05 GMT November 6, 2007
thanx mm,i will!

thanx NS!

madrid mm 10:06 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:58 GMT November 6, 2007

David Copperfield is doing his tricks PAR
8-)

madrid mm 10:05 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 09:49 GMT November 6, 2007

keep safe my cyber fx Jedi friend 8-)

Bodrum OEE 10:05 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Toronto 09:36 GMT November 6, 2007

you love to pat yourself on the back for calling the bouts of carry unwind in February and August, yet what you always fail to mention is that you always call for carry unwind, before, during , after and in between

------------------------------------------------------------

TN,

you are right about that in between. should you be kind enough to check archives you will see that I tried to make the case for unwinding rather than making calls almost all the time (and acknowledged that the move from 221 to 240 in about 4 months was baffling for me and that I was wrong).

I have no issues being incorrect.

"Before" is the critical part:

I guess the reason I am credited (by and opinion adversary mind you) for August call (and I was not recognized in the forum in for my late February one) is because it (they) was (were) explicit and made within days of downturns in carry.

I think there are two types here: first who express opinion and admit when wrong (and if need be there in terms of being inappropriate, apologize) and others who do not.

I am not a trader by the way (never wanted to be): a wanna be journalist (despite being in media) and investor (although transacting when possible) at best.

I wish you the best.

* who does not love applaud?

Rio Tinto Analistafx 10:03 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:37 GMT November 6, 2007
One have to be cautious if USD/CAD refuses to move any lower for the time being.

Good point of view! After massive selloffs its probably the right option: sell usd against other currencies especially cad can not be the best trade!
GT & GL

PAR 09:58 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Japanese housing market is stagnating because building companies after revisions to Japans Building standard laws have to wait almost half a year for building approvals . If you forbid companies to built and say afterwards you are surprised that building is declining . How surrealistic can you get ?

Mumbai NS 09:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
FM seriously hope things come back to normalcy fast mate take care mate gl gt

Melbourne Qindex 09:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market can easily retrace back to 237.85.

HK [email protected] 09:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Hasselt Red 09:33 GMT November 6, 2007
Dr. Qindex mentioned today the 1.4530 as a level to consider, but I put 1.4550(20 pips more) to make it sure to penetrate it.
I consider 1.46 and 1.47 the more the 1.4530 will be penetrated, though it is only statistically true.
You may read my post below from the not far past.
Actually I was calling for higher levels, but 1.47 is what should be considered(maybe even for this week).
But beware there is a possibility for a very strong pullback from the 1.47xx level.


HK [email protected] 02:13 GMT October 3, 2007
saopaulo cg 00:38 GMT October 3, 2007

NOTHING WILL STOP THE EURO TO 1.4700, dollar low is not yet on the menu, just wait a little.
HK [email protected] 00:01 GMT September 25, 2007
Whatever the teams of wise man in the ECB or analysts say.
One may by to the dips in the Euro in the range 1.4070 down to 25 pips for another attack on the USD.
Want to be more conservative buy at the break of the 1.4130 high, because nothing will help; Euro will first go to 1.43 and almost a certainty for longer term 1.47-1.48.....Sustainable or not it will go there.

Lahore FM 09:49 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 09:36 GMT November 6, 2007
attorneys protesting NS!that's about all.private media still in chains is 2nd.other than that it is life as usual.

Roja Rosa 09:44 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 09:36 GMT November 6, 2007

First of all i am not Zeus and u can ask Jay abt it.....second u have missed a point or two and most important is that one bout of unwind stiches more than 100 bouts of wind if u have a calculator u can calculate. Ofcourse choice is urs depending on ur pocket size which appears tiny !

Melbourne Qindex 09:43 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 09:40 GMT - I am referring to the USD in general.

Syd .. 09:40 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Sterling Seen An Alternative Sell To USD - RBS


0928 GMT [Dow Jones] For those nervous of holding limit short USD positions at current levels given the known heavy short USD market positioning, sterling looks a good alternative sell, says Royal Bank of Scotland. UK data over the last 24 hours have been consistently weak, with forward looking data showing weakness that hasn't shown up in either Euro zone or US numbers of late. Says any USD weakness would likely result in sterling losing ground on the crosses, while any USD strength would see sterling slip against the lower yielders. On interest rates, the bank says a UK cut this week is only an outside chance, but even with rates on hold, longer-dated spreads still look likely to move against sterling over coming weeks. Cable trades at 2.0870

St. Annaland Bob 09:40 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 09:37 GMT November 6, 2007

best of greetings Qindex ... cautious or long? :-)

Plovdiv Gotin 09:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
E/$ November 2003/4/5/6 up. Hi-Low=579avg(min440,max676).GLay

Melbourne Qindex 09:37 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
One have to be cautious if USD/CAD refuses to move any lower for the time being.

Toronto tn 09:36 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
There are two types of people here, those that are obsessed with being right all the time and those that want to make money. Unfortunately the ranks of the former have swarmed the latter in recent times.

Bodrum -- you love to pat yourself on the back for calling the bouts of carry unwind in February and August, yet what you always fail to mention is that you always call for carry unwind, before, during , after and in between. The saying about the broken clock being right twice a day comes to mind. Oilman is a trader, not an theoretical windbag analyst like yourself. You would do well to understand the difference when digging around in the archive in the future.

Rosa Roja -- Zeus, if you had just used stops like you should have, you may have saved yourself some sanity. I think you need a little vacation, pal.

Mumbai NS 09:36 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
FM hi how r things there .......hope u all are fine.....gl gt

Lahore FM 09:34 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
RF.euro is,what he means of course.referring to your post on euro.

Hasselt Red 09:33 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
the EUR/USD

HK [email protected] 09:31 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Hasselt Red 09:24 GMT November 6, 2007

May I know what currency are you relating to?

Hasselt Red 09:24 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 09:17 GMT

RF, do you consider a crossing of that level a closing above it? If so by how many pips above the level? thank you?

i'm new here btw, greetings to all

Melbourne Qindex 09:22 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:25 GMT November 6, 2007
USD/CAD : The projected supporting point at 0.9267 is likely to be tackled. The market is pulling towards the range at 0.9059 - 0.9124.

HK [email protected] 09:17 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Euro crossing 1.4540 means 1.4600 will follow. And for the last... a blowoff to about 1.4700/1.4750.

Yen is a big secret; T.A will not give the right answer. But if it will surge above 116, maybe it will be good for Paulson and his friends in Goldman Sachs and those across the pacific, but also will give a vital help for the US economy to sink into the toilet. LOL

Como Perrie 09:15 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
:))) to sum the whole discussion...is It the free yen republic to live forever...

answer none knows as of yet, but many will know everything in coupla days..

taking a walk

bibi

Bodrum OEE 09:14 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Monaco 09:03 GMT November 6, 2007
Well you should also look at what happened on those posts...The JPY did go stronger in february...When EURJPY crashed from 170 to 150 , i wasn't long which is why the posts you saw..
GL.


It could be and i hope you were not (short JPY) yet that is not the point. You are a professional and expressed strong pro views against JPY at both times.

When proved right on the latest occassion however you were one and Roja Rosa 0.

In case you are not to be judged by your past posts (favoring a direction proved to be wrong) as stated in your previous why should Rosa be held accountable ? (the moment we write it about it is the instant it becomes past)

Let us drop this subject (I will) and altogether try to be more sensitive and sensible.

Thank you again.

I have to go.

bye

Gen dk 09:13 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Monaco Oil man 09:03 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:52 GMT November 6, 2007

Well you should also look at what happened on those posts...The JPY did go stronger in february...When EURJPY crashed from 170 to 150 , i wasn't long which is why the posts you saw..
GL.

Gen dk 09:03 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Roja Rosa 09:02 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 08:52 GMT November 6, 2007
Roja Rosa 08:35 GMT November 6, 2007

Oilman ......how do u presume that i am on high leverage???........rather i shuld now ask u how u are on low leverage....as u are a carry trader.....second u said roja guy 0.....how did u presume that i shorted usdjpy at 114.20......u will be awestruck if u wuld know my possies......but as i have not mentioned entries i have no business to mention them now.........enuf of u ......but u have a right to express ur views.....don't harp abt them with 30 pips as rite .....will catch u after some days at 111.30.....and if u know charts u shuld know the significance of lvl mentioned......carry on with ur exuberance and self proclaimed glory.....!

Alaska Moon 09:00 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
MM......
Click on the website.....go to "investors"...and under that click on "3rd quarter earnings"....It is all good reading, but the derivative issue with currency is down a ways under special items.....
Good luck
Moon



http://www.marathon.com/

Bodrum OEE 08:54 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
London

Hey NYAM, I hope you are doing well.

I will write to you soon (I hope)

bye.

Bodrum OEE 08:52 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 08:21 GMT November 6, 2007
Bodrum OEE 08:11 GMT November 6, 2007

I m supposed to read my posts and comment the past?

----------------------------------------------------------

Yes I am inclined to say; especially before you attempt to settle scores with others.

I wish you best of time and end the dialogue in trust that the case is received.

Thank you, Geneva DS and Como Perrie.

Be well.

Gone now

Monaco Oil man 08:52 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Roja Rosa 08:35 GMT November 6, 2007

Well depends how u look at things..I'm more into grabbing lots of pips at low leverage..Always a tomorrow , which isn't the case if you are highly leveraged.

GL.

London NYAM 08:51 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:11 //
good points! Alot gets swept under the carpet. GLGT

Mumbai NS 08:51 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Moon ......that was news mate can u give the link if possible sounds worth a read peace and gt

Alaska Moon 08:48 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
I think sometimes as a trader I or we forget that there are forces in the market besides us traders... I just read on the Marathon Oil web site....They bought USD$5.8 billion US/CAD in June of this year to hedge a deal with a Canadian company. The deal just closed a couple of weeks ago and the web site says that the change in the currency value equaled US$58 million.
It just brings to mind....there are a lot of currency deals that really are not speculative trading....
So, I guess I shoul not be surprised when a pair goes off somewhere I don't understand !! LOL
Just a thought.....
Moon

madrid mm 08:48 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
"With oil jumping $2-3 up and down almost every day, the chiropractors must be doing good business with oil traders suffering from the whiplash they get almost every day." - John Mauldin
8-)

Como Perrie 08:46 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bob... am suspecting a turnaround for the buck to come at some point... personally think usdjpy lower will lead much lower the other minor xxxjpy new zealand in prmis...

but something exceptional must happen...as BOE to be set for a defoult or a bomb or anything, so to see the climax on this forum changing a bit....

so far this is very interesting...low dollar was for years in the policy and now US is the most competitive around, except in asia..this is the part the US policies have failed

http://www.gcr.weforum.org/

me do not like to trade much today..just watching with some usdyens from last thursday yet short and some other things minor

St. Annaland Bob 08:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   

by the way, USA can increase it's number of citizens by 2% and solve the deficit issues ... US passport for USD 1 million ... such move will make USD 5 trillion within less then a week ... they also can go for 10 million passports @ USD 1.5 million per piece and it will still work with hours/days as weeks will much too long ... Gisele Bündchen as anti USD official, I am out of this game here and now!!! ... buy USD !!! ... am I pimping?!

Gen dk 08:38 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Roja Rosa 08:35 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Had decided to stay away but this boiler is getting very hot.......commercial interest based views on macro trends happening in a flash and that too being predicted on 30-40 pips move is foolishness of highest order rather trying to make a fruitless attempt to catch new clients appears to be the sole moto....no views....only continue carrying without imagining the potential risk like when it snaps from 250 to 219 in 3 days and wipes out people to penury not left with even their undies is being totally ignored in promoting commercial interests and being helped by many in achieving this end but gud now that some have raised proper questions and mind u look at many options also suggested where u culd have lost for 3 generations not one!

van Gecko 08:34 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
too many bulls & bears slugging each other inside the 115/114 band for Dollar/Yen to go anyway near term but its crosses had over-shot & ready to dump with the Conti cousins.. all pairs could roll over fast below 165 Eur/yen..

PAR 08:32 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
When will Northern Rock pay some interest to the BOE ? They probably will use Ponz tactics i.e. borrow more from BOE to repay BOE . Lol.

Helsinki iw 08:27 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Yeah PAR, don't you miss the old Buba. Those guys were the kings of the Autobahn.

Syd .. 08:27 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Shares in Northern Rock PLC (NRK.LN) are likely to open lower Tuesday after a newspaper report said the bank has seen a sharp fall in mortgage lending in the past two months since its financial problems emerged.

According to mortgage brokers and intermediaries quoted in the Financial Times Tuesday, the amount of business the Newcastle, England-based bank has been writing has plummeted since it asked the Bank of England for emergency support in mid-September.

Around 85% of all Northern Rock's mortgage business is sold through intermediaries and mortgage brokers.

Northern Rock wasn't immediately available to comment.

PAR 08:25 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
When Euro gets strong ECB goes into hibernation . Every day we have a BOJ oldie or a Fed speaker but from Franfurt , " the sound of silence " .

Monaco Oil man 08:23 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
I actually meant $ down apart vs. $/Y..

Syd .. 08:22 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Yen's Prospects Improve As Risk Aversion Rises


0819 GMT [Dow Jones] The JPY's prospects are improving as global risk aversion rises again and carry trades lose their attraction. Falling interest rate differentials as the subprime mortgage debacle continues to take its toll on the US are also working in the Japanese currency's favor, despite the problem of its own economy.

Monaco Oil man 08:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:11 GMT November 6, 2007

I m supposed to read my posts and comment the past?
There's been pips in the past , doesn't mean anything , or there's been stops past is over, and as usual there's always the *past doesn't mean future will be similar at the bottom.
Most important is the now : x/jpy up , apart vs. $...carries up.
GL.

GENEVA DS 08:18 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
BODRUM

Thanks for your wise words ! we all will miss you in November... but have a good time and see you in December... markets still will exist then, problems still will exist then... the only thing NOBODY from us all will know is,. where the market will go.... have fun....d.

Como Perrie 08:13 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:11 GMT November 6, 2007

I think there's a simple way out of such pseudo academic disucssion...when trading do not look at forums...

Bodrum OEE 08:11 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 05:40 GMT November 6, 2007

Stops to entry on all jpy pairs. Guess carry player 1,
roja guy 0.

There is an unfair political approach in forex forum.

In case members are entitled to express views (in some cases aggresively) (and especially when the aim is to lure commercial gains for their business interests) those who do so should be in acceptance to be observed and commented about (regarding their track records).

It is not fair to brag about when right and as soon as proved wrong complain to the moderator/administrator.

On the other hand the observation and comments should be straight but not hurtful (unlike I did once or twice)
(apologized for it almost instantly)

Further unjust when one, especially a person who calls him or herself a professional, unhappy about the course, responds to or treats another member, as if there is a score to settle regarding the latter’s position.

Do you disagree?

In case one does, let us see how you the following is treated-----------------:

Cannes Oil man 02:52 GMT February 21, 2007

One has to think of what the other guys will do in playing markets (A chess game) , So right now the boj will hike..Fine, however market has priced that in , and is already BEHIND the hike, that there won't be ANY hikes for awhile...The HIKE move was done last week , dropping from 121.8 to 119...Now market wants more than a 25 bps , if yen has to strengthen...So minutes will be what might move the yen to stronger , hike is already , priced and discounted....No hike would be a KILLER (Yen weakening FAST)..

Cannes Oil man 05:25 GMT February 21, 2007
Off to sleep , See you at 240 GBPJPY.

Monaco Oil Man 11:01 GMT July 17, 2007

JPY:

Looking at this GBPJPY , it's definitely not a good short.
However you want to look at it , same as EURJPY , they are still in Buy on dips mode....Same as ALL jpy crosses...Going against the current might work, but chances of drowning are superior than swimming easily with the current.

Monaco Oil man 15:47 GMT July 31, 2007
hk ab 13:10 GMT July 31, 2007
----

I don't see carry in danger atm...As I posted 10 Days ago, the carry traders had taken an increase in JPY calls (so did i...Knock in was 165.50 EY, which was knocked in the same day it was supposed to expire..Lucky on that one) , meaning they exercise , go short YEN again , and slowly increase in JPY calls (as prices move up) ...So JPY should keep weak this month(as the housewife (a denigrating word , as they are formidable traders , as most are sitting in hedged...Or i should say their bank is doing them nice setups)... Under 160 EY , there could be a larger move , however models for the moment are still pointing to further upside in EY : Downside Volatility is too low right now to provide safe short in EY , long term wise.. It could change, but so far , it hasn't.

Monaco Oil man 12:04 GMT August 2, 2007

Anyways , we are witnessing CHF weakness across the board, which could also imply further weakness and a bottoming in x/chf and x/jpy pairs..

Monaco Oil man 06:46 GMT August 10, 2007
BUY AUDJPY 99.30 stops 98.78 Target 102.20

------------------------------------------------------------

Between February 23 and March 6, GBP/JPY went down 1700 pips and July 23 and August 17; 3187 .

That is 4887 pips in 26 days.

How would one feel in case I inquired: the score again, please?

I will be absent for most of the next month

best of luck to you all

Como Perrie 08:10 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
btw Bob ..was obseving some multinationals schemes marketing (which is apparently used also by some religious entities)..if you take stats of the commercials on Tv 80-90 pct is women oriented...then males have to fight and rob to buy wife's things :)))

...funny is those model even not the super one in real life they pretend to live as to be ever into a spot for the perfect housewife...cars, creams, pets, housestyles, furniture, and the many other stupid creams

Monaco Oil man 08:07 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 07:58 GMT November 6, 2007

Aye , and she needed 20 advisors to come to this conclusion..She lost 7 good years of upside..But she isn't going to miss the train..
When Buffet diversified in the 1.20 region , people were also saying "We're going to eat (at the) Buffet"...

Como Perrie 08:05 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 07:43 GMT November 6, 2007

:)) yeah.. some I knew in their 30s became as sort of pushy petty animals as to be nearing their old age woman syndrome...nice in pictures (falsificated those as well with computers as most of the financial world)..so far too much for reality

St. Annaland Bob 08:04 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Perrie, follow the link @ 06:44 GMT post to understand what model signals USD as a buy.

Como Perrie 08:02 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
so far the story looks to be yet sell the buck usdjpy included..

114 soon to be crossed downards

Como Perrie 07:59 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bob does models do work just under sort of neo feudal upcoming age most probably. They do disparse debt over average believers after having abused of em

An article in today"s Independent headlined "Markets fear banks have $1 trillion in toxic debt"

St. Annaland Bob 07:58 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
when I talk model, it goes about the model @ 06:44 post's link

Monaco Oil man 07:50 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Well , what is important in any model is that contrary to human , it has no conviction..It goes short to long with different parameters and abides to the rules...A human WILL break those rules at a certain point in time...It is human nature after all..This applies to any time frames , as a trend is a trend in any time frame : price moving in a certain direction for x amount of time.

Melbourne Qindex 07:48 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 1.1511. This is in agreement with the weekly cycle pivot center which is located at 1.1504 - 1.1519.

St. Annaland Bob 07:43 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:05 GMT November 6, 2007

going to be fun for sure ... too many start to claim that gravity does not exist ... when model talks forex, it means boiling waters before the flash are the play ... best to have the super model over, under, left and right BUT for sure not with :-)

Melbourne Qindex 07:42 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is going to tackle the range 1.0431 - 1.0462.

PAR 07:42 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Fed supporting financial system is encouraging carry trades and helping Us stocks to a strong close. Fed will cut rates because of weakness in houses, cars and banks . That a strong Euro is protecting against rising crude oil prices is another David Copperfield illusion. Last two weeks crude up more than 10% while EURO barely moved. This is a chicken and egg story. Crude high because of weak dollar or dollar weak because of strong crude .

Monaco Oil man 07:31 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
In fact my trend-line indicator says 115.44 ->119.33 from here...Previous was 115.14->113.69 which was done...So could see a very nice push once we move above 116.
gl

Melbourne Qindex 07:27 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 2.0893 after anchoring itself at 2.0830 // 2.0841.

Monaco Oil man 07:26 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
hong kong nt 07:18 GMT November 6, 2007

$/Y looks ready to bounce..If it manages to break 116.30 , could see 119 in a flash.
GL.

PAR 07:26 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Kampo and BOJ aiming for stops in USDJPY above 115.00 after yesterday s succesfull intervention protecting 114.00 . On top of that Kampo big buyer of GBPJPY for yield collecting The yen is not a freely traded currency but the most manipulated of the widely traded currencies

hong kong nt 07:18 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
FXxx, CMx calling for dollar bounce this week...

Como Perrie 07:12 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   

Monaco Oil man 07:09 GMT November 6, 2007

I tend to think a stock market global sharper correction is needed to lift the yen and help some the buck.

Monaco Oil man 07:09 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Well , the x/jpy pairs are looking quite explosive here...Taking GBPJPY as an example we have 239.20 as a break out for 241.
31 for this session...
GL.

Como Perrie 07:05 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 06:44 GMT November 6, 2007

or Yens.... FUKUI TODAY AND BERNANKE LATER ON market gossip shows again

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:56 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 06:52 GMT November 6, 2007
Thx Moon... sounds good. Best of trades!

madrid mm 06:52 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
* Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan says falling US home prices and high inventories raise major concern. Market adjustment incomplete. Global economy very powerful even with the extraordinary rise in oil prices. Central Banks are capable of containing inflation pressures from commodities.

* Greenspan says USD will decline in long run relative to East Asia; productivity in East Asia. Weakened USD in context of weaker disinflation a potential problem for USD, declining USD has potential to increase inflation. Sees big rises in commodity prices, but that does not mean it will lead to inflation.

* MoF Fukushiro Nukaga says he will carefully watch impact of US subprime impact on global financial markets. Subprime effects on Japan is less than US and Europe.

* Econs Min Prof Hiroko Ota says she expects subprime effect to linger on in US, and must monitor housing impact on US spending. Still sees financial market turmoil and lower US consumer spending would hurt Japan-BBG.

* Fitch Ratings upgrades China ratings to "A+" from "A".

* George Soros forecasts US economy is "on the verge of a very serious economic correction" after years of overspending. Soros says he knows "exactly where the currencies are going" but he is not going "to tell you." China is the "absolute winner" in economic terms and will continue to see its economy soar. - Reuters.

* NKS article on BoJ minutes for Sept 18-19: Officials Still Eyeing Chance To Hike Interest Rates.

* UK Telegraph: The analyst, Meredith Whitney, who triggered the departure of Citigroup Charles "Chuck" Prince has called on his successors to break up the banking conglomerate.

* UK BRC retail sales slowed to +1.0%y/y in Oct, slowest in a year.

* UK NIESR estimates GDP in 3 months to October at +0.7%.

* Calmer markets in Asia today, after yesterday's Citigroup write-down and departure of Charles Prince, with stocks prices generally steady to firmer, though still with an eye on any further "occassional" additional billions of write-down by global financial institutions.

* USD/JPY dipped earlier to lows of 114.27 given, on back of US investment houses, brokerages selling and also other Swiss, but good buying from Japanese investors, toushin demand and Asian accounts - talks North Asian, China, Taiwan buying on dips, pushing it firmer.

USD/JPY hit highs of 114.76, on back of good Cross/JPY, JPY carry trade demand, though in quiet and calm markets, with EUR/JPY edging up to 166.24 from 165.49-50, as Asian stock markets remain steady to firmer.

GBP/JPY edging back above 239, on back of firmer Cable, on back of Asian Cbs, accounts, real money and Europeans buying from 2.0805-10 to 2.0853 highs, despite weaker BRC retail sales. Focus still on the key 2.0900 options barriers.

AUD remains bid at 0.9225, with Efficient winning Melbourne Cup, focus now on "efficient" RBA rate hike at 2230GMT?

EUR firm, eye 1.4528 peak.

Nikkei -0.06% or -10.53pts at 16,258.39. JGBs steady after strong first 40-year JGB auction, 10-yr yield -0.005% at 1.575%.

Gold within reach of 28-yr highs $810.90., now $809.50.

Crude oil up, at $94.75, +0.77.

Alaska Moon 06:52 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 06:40 GMT November 6, 2007
========
Sorry.... I meant that prevoius post for you.....LOL
Moon

Alaska Moon 06:52 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 06:40 GMT November 6, 2007
========
Sorry.... I meant that prevoius post for you.....LOL
Moon

Alaska Moon 06:48 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 06:17 GMT November 6, 2007
==========
No... I didn't take the trades until about 3 hours ago... I just trade what I see.....
Moon

Sfr Iren 06:47 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 06:11 GMT November 6, 2007

Thank you Oilman again. Your posts like always are clear and make sence for me. I hope we'll see you more often on this forum as usually. Wish you good luck and appreciate on answering my question this time.

St. Annaland Bob 06:44 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   

Time to buy USD !!!

madrid mm 06:43 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
hello and GM FX JEdi from around the world 8-)

“Man can believe the impossible, but can never believe the improbable” - Oscar Wilde

Monaco Oil man 06:42 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 06:40 GMT November 6, 2007

I went long again 237.9 once it broke upside , the stop was taken of course , on that pair , and there was 6 pair jpy taken..

GL.

Monaco Oil man 06:40 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Another good carry (which i am holding) for this week , is the GBP/NZD , the target being 2.63 for this run...However being that it's GBP/NZD , it bounces fast , 2.72-2.73 is a good place to enter if it spikes again..
GL.

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:40 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 06:23 GMT November 6, 2007
Moon, I hope you forgive the indiscretion… this is out of curiosity and not to instigate further bickering on this forum (which is why I'm specifically addressing you – Mr. Cool Hand Luke). I recall Oil's longs from yesterday (some perhaps a bit premature… ie. long GBPJPY 238.11 in , SL 237.60 TP 240), so when you say “Our Yen crosses..longs look good !!” does that mean (1) you moved your stop, (2) were stopped out and re-entered, (3) entered at a lower level after Oil’s post? tia

Melbourne Qindex 06:36 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : : Heading Towards 1.4734

As shown in the distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart the market is pulling towards 1.4817. The monthly cycle projected series indicates that the market is working on the upper barrier at 1.4529 // 1.4601. It is likely that the market will vibrate around 1.4529 with an expected magnitude of 1.4457 - 1.4601 for the time being.

Roja Rosa 06:35 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bob tks

Melbourne Qindex 06:35 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Barriers are located at 1.4520 and 1.4530.
.

Melbourne Qindex 06:30 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The first two targets are 1.4543 and 1.4569.

St. Annaland Bob 06:29 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Roja Rosa, don't bother just go ahead with your trades and peaceful trading ... market can make opposite trades to be both winners same day ... good luck to both of you early morning fighters ;)

Roja Rosa 06:27 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Bris 06:20 GMT November 6, 2007

I am aware that it is not my chat room ...........i am further aware that it is a forex forum.......so u shuld be aware that poking is not in order as per the forex forum rules.....further u shuld be aware that there is something called freedom to agree or disagree ......i don't wan't to say more than this to u

Alaska Moon 06:23 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 06:17 GMT November 6, 2007
========
Thanks, Oliver.....Your input is appreciated....Our Yen crosses..longs look good !!
Moon

Bris 06:20 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Roja Rosa 05:45 GMT November 6, 2007

This is the Forex Forum
not your chat room

Monaco Oil man 06:17 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
and $/Y 116.30 again..
GT.

Monaco Oil man 06:11 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Snf Iren 06:01 GMT November 6, 2007

242...169 EURJPY..91 NZDJPY (will go up more than others as i see NZDUSD rise fast towards 80 from here)..AUDJPY 108..CADJPY still 125..That's what i'm looking at for the week.

GL.

Melbourne Qindex 06:07 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : As shown in the distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart the market is pulling towards 2.1087. The monthly cycle frequency chart indicates that the gap between 2.1087 and 2.1439 is large but the pulling force towards 2.1439 is good. Therefore the market may be able to reach as high as 2.1263.

Melbourne Qindex 06:06 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
LA BFL 06:00 GMT - GBP/USD : The market momentum will increase when it is above 2.0861 and we should be able to see at least 2.0931.

Snf Iren 06:01 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Oilman for previous analitic predicsions about GBPYEN pair - they saved me a good buck. Appreciate it.
Now I am wondering about your ideas for profit taking on those long term yen pairs especially against GBP. Eur and CAD
Please if you have an ideas to share it with us... Thank you !

LA BFL 06:00 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Hello qindex;

can you provide a view for gbp/usd please? Thank you.

Melbourne Qindex 05:53 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : I guess we are going to see a record high on this pair.

Roja Rosa 05:45 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Jay i guess u appreciate that i am quiet but this guy is fingering again i may loose my cool soon ......i hope u ask him to respect others also or else another one to one begins shortly ....it's a promise

Monaco Oil man 05:40 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Stops to entry on all jpy pairs..Guess carry player 1 , roja guy 0.

GL.

Va Raven 04:46 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Reported by RT earlier that Soros says it will be “a bigger slowdown than Bernanke is seeing” and says he knows “exactly where the currencies are going” but he is “not going to tell you”.

Makassar Alimin 04:42 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
shorted eurjpy 166.03, stop 166.53

Syd .. 03:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
The high rate on the one-year bills sold by the People's Bank of China during its regular open market operations Tuesday could signal the central bank will hike interest rates soon, some analysts said.

The PBOC sold one-year bills at 3.7990% Tuesday, traders said, well above the rate of 3.6055% on the one-year bills it sold last week.

The jump in the yield comes after central bank Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said late Monday that reining in inflation risks should be a priority.

"The yield on the central bank's one-year bills has risen for two weeks with a total gain of over 30 basis points, raising concerns inflation data for October may rise," said Minzu Securities analyst Li Li.

Va Raven 03:55 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Someone just emailed me this piece…. It's not really something "new", but tells you that people do have their own observation and trust....

RUBIN'S CUBE
by Brady Willett

On November 8, 2001 Robert Rubin called senior Treasury Department official Peter Fisher and asked him if he could tell the bond rating agencies to hold off on downgrading Enron. Mr. Rubin, who served as Treasury Secretary from 1995 to 1999, was clearly using his high-up contact(s) in an attempt to influence the supposedly non-biased rating agencies, and he was doing so because he worked for Citigroup, a large Enron creditor. When Fisher declined to go along with the scheme Rubin agreed that it was probably not a good idea after all (what else could he do?). The media barely covered the story, no official inquiry was made, and Robert Rubin didn’t go to jail.
Given that Robert Rubin is going to be the new Chairman of Citigroup, you would think that shareholders would be up in arms. After all, how can someone with Mr. Rubin’s suspicious track record be trusted? But alas, Robert Rubin is a member of the fabled “Committee to Save the World”. If he can not bail Citigroup out of its current mess who can?
The reality is that Rubin, while regarded as an extremely influential figure, is not a miracle worker. The conditions that allowed Greenspan and Rubin to run amuck with their bailouts in the 1990s are no longer present today. It is also worth remembering that despite his efforts Rubin failed to stop the Enron implosion from happening, and he also underestimated the turmoil currently surrounding Citigroup and others.
Can The Puzzle Ever Be Solved?
The real story isn’t that Rubin is a hero or villain, but that following the collapse of Enron FASB and the SEC failed to enact simple and tough accounting standards that forced companies to keep any and all financial exposures on their balance sheets. To be sure, the off balance sheet dealings that helped Enron conceal its insolvency are being reincarnated today with untold SIV exposures because the SEC and FASB failed.
Incidentally, FASB and the SEC had a near impossible job to do: there were hundreds of Rubin-like figures lobbying and making secretive phone-calls to water down the post-Enron accounting standards investors are forced to cope with today. Why not make these calls when the punishment for getting caught in the act is to one day become Chairman of Citigroup?
In short, it is the calls that Rubin and others make, most of which we never find out about, that make it impossible for regulator and investor interests to perfectly align.

Va Raven 03:20 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Thanks, CS, and we are all waiting, waiting for sign or indication that what would and should happen to dollar from here. I have no strong reading to say anything I myself really believe. But will not hesitate if I do. Cheers!

BC, I spent hours on PF today to read many of yours and other respected members’ exchanges… wow, fascinating and impressive!

HK [email protected] 03:00 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   

There are lot of analysis predicting a soon to come bottom for the USD/JPY.
Indeed T.A. does not work well recently on this pair.

There is a serious political issue around the Yen value and this should be given more weight. The Chrysler's 10000 layoff this month and other troubles caused by a strong yen should be given higher value.

If yen goes nominally higher from about here, the white house may find rioting workers near it's gates sooner than later like Tsar Nicholas II of Russia
.
The "stronger/weaker" USD policy will not work if yen will not revalue significantly.

Carry trades are of the very best interest of the USA(sorry Paulson) and are well protected from both sides of the Pacific, so that is not what will affect the yen too much.

Sacrificing the working class for few Piglish trans-pacific big interests may become a growing issue.

I think the isse of social instability at home on background of the Iraqi elongated war and social-economical insecurity may take soon the front stage in determining the value of the pair.

Melbourne Qindex 02:25 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The projected supporting point at 0.9267 is likely to be tackled. The market is pulling towards the range at 0.9059 - 0.9124.

Gen dk 02:21 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 02:20 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The projected syupporting point at 0.9267 is likely to be tackled. The market is pulling towards the range at 0.9059 - 0.9124.

Syd .. 02:12 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Commenting on the dollar's recent broad decline, Greenspan said: "I don't think it's either favorable or unfavorable."

"A declining dollar has a potential of creating increased rates of inflation in the United States," especially at a time when disinflationary pressures are subsiding worldwide, he said. But also at the moment, "it is actually working as a net positive for the United States, as our exports are accelerated significantly."

"What is not true," he said, "is that because there's very large current account deficit ... the dollar must decline."

Greenspan also predicted that the dollar will fall further against East Asian currencies in the long term if technological innovation boosts productivity, standards of living and therefore growth in the region.

Syd .. 01:46 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Greenspan Issue US Home Inventories At Very High Level Central Bks Shouldn't Try To Defuse Asset Bubble
Falling Dollar Boosting Inflation In US
Declining Dollar Neither Positive Nor Negative
Expect Asian FX To Rise In Long Term




FW CS 01:16 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO 00:58 GMT November 6, 2007
Ole Zorro. Wow are you then a Euro bear???

EU ZORRO 00:58 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Olé BC...!!!!

Hi CS...i'm still waiting for 1,4555 to close the last longs..and try a short with 25 pips stoploss... :)

GL GT

Bon Air VA Dennis 00:41 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO 00:30 GMT

very significant I'm sure - rotflma

FW CS 00:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO 00:30 GMT November 6, 2007

Long time no see. Well here's your 1.45 that you have been calling since Euro was at 0.8500. What's next?

AZUSA 4x-ed 00:39 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO 00:30 GMT November 6, 2007
Yes... a temptation that not many can resist. Wonder if she meant to say Dollar or Bill?

shanghai bc 00:35 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
EU ZORRO 00:30 GMT November 6, 2007

Viva El Zorro!

EU ZORRO 00:30 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi all...!!!!

...nice to see old friends here...all the BEST...!!!!

BTW....lovely to see Gisele Bundechen calling dollar down @1 ,45.... ;)

shanghai bc 00:22 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   

VA Raven

Welcome back from holiday in the Pacific islands..I was worreid the natives may have done something to you, similar to what they did to the former boss of the Fidelity Magellan fund :)..

FW CS 00:11 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
Va Raven
Good to see you again its been awhile. Ur opinion on the $ from here?

Syd .. 00:04 GMT November 6, 2007 Reply   
U.K. retail sales growth was much weaker than expected in October, hitting an 11-month low as demand for clothing and big-ticket items slumped, data from the British Retail Consortium released Tuesday showed.

Same-store sales increased 1.0% on the year last month, weaker than the expectations of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who tipped on average a 2.2% rise. Total retail sales - which include new outlets - gained 3.0%.

Both figures marked the lowest rates of growth since November last year.

"This result reflects the downward trend in sales growth that we have been anticipating as a consequence of higher mortgage interest rates and other pressures on household incomes," said Kevin Hawkins, director general of the BRC.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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