Forex Forum Archive for 11/08/2007

Syd .. 23:52 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Tsy Paulson: Keeping Trade Open With China Good For US


China Needs To Speed Up Fincl Mkts Reforms


'My Job' Is To Keep Links Open With China

China Needs To Speed Appreciation Of Yuan

Strong Dollar Is In US Interest

Gen dk 23:21 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 22:53 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading range for a few trading days is 109.60 - 113.33.

Melbourne Qindex 22:50 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : A barrier is located at 111.57.

London NYAM 22:44 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Bay! GTGL.

Melbourne Qindex 22:43 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : My bias is on the downside when the market is trading below 113.33. The initial downside target is 110.77. A projected supporting point is expected at 110.26.

USA BAY 22:40 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

With you on short usd/yen, will see 108.xx by year end. gt/gl

Philadelphia Caba 21:50 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Traders Dismiss Friday Fed Rate Cut Rumors
Dealers are now noting speculation behind the sharp rally on the stocks this afternoon despite the lack of fresh, positive fundamental news. One rumor is speculation, emerging from the equity market and then the bond market, that the Fed will cut rates tomorrow, which is the reason for the sharp rise in stocks this afternoon. Forex traders are very skeptical on the rumor and most laughed it off but the speculation is being fuelled by an analysis article from a US bank that notes the correlation to the strange stock market recovery just before the Fed rate cut in August. Dealers who don"t believe the rumor also note that despite the downbeat comments from Bernanke today and the bond markets pricing in a Dec rate cut, that Bernanke did not appear at all inclined to cut rates from those who watched the speech today. (thmsn)

London NYAM 21:07 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
lowering my stops on short usdjpy to 113.37. still think an extendion to 111.60 or/and below. Adding on any bounce to 112.89

Gen dk 20:53 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 20:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
today's goal, Close cash SnP above 200dma....1483 and change.
Less than 15 mins to get it up 6 full points.

Gen dk 20:33 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 20:28 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
It's a stock market miracle! Could it be putting in one of those spike lows?

It is estimated that 40% of the daily trading in Stox is done by hedge funds. Add that to this rule change to get a better idea of haw far range expansion can go on down days. Thanks SEC :)

SEC Ends Uptick Rule
By IndexUniverse Staff - Thursday, 14 June 2007
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has eliminated the so-called “uptick rule,” which prevents short-sellers from selling stock in a down market. SEC commissioners voted 5-0 to eliminate the rule, which was established in 1938 as a way to prevent disorderly selling during market downturns. Under the rule, a short sale could only be executed on an “uptick,” i.e., when a share was trading up. The idea was to prevent stocks in free fall from being forced ever lower by short-sellers.

Lahore FM 20:15 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 20:05 GMT November 8, 2007
Moon,it will likely blow over.lawyers protesting over suspension of constituition and media constraints.normalcy likely to return over another week.thanx for your concern.

out for now.

Syd .. 20:14 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:13 many thanks again

Lahore FM 20:13 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 20:05 GMT November 8, 2007
already in.

USA Zeus 20:11 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
on = one

USD Zeus 20:10 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
The markets will show support for the USD because of transparency. The riveting gut wrench will follow later as the overseas markets deal with liquidity and economic faltering in a shroud of misinformation and agenda driven fallacies. This will cause on to give pause about "trends". LOL

Alaska Moon 20:05 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:02 GMT November 8, 2007
==========
We all hope you are ok.....Lahore has been all over the news the last couple of days....
Good luck to you !!!
Moon

Syd .. 20:05 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:02 GMT very much appreciated FM will you be shorting it ?

Lahore FM 20:02 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:57 GMT November 8, 2007
Yes Alimin dear!

Syd,gold is flat almost on the day.jpy is strong.aud would hold 0.9260/70 to try the downside,attempting break of 0.9180 i feel.

Syd .. 19:57 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:56 GMT hi, whats your view on the Aud in asia today thanks

Makassar Alimin 19:57 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
FM, do you expect to see eurjpy 160 again?

Lahore FM 19:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
TEHRAN 19:53 GMT November 8, 2007
Tehran,i have mailed you about it.check plz.

TEHRAN 19:53 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
hello Lahore
do you received mony?
tnx

Lahore FM 19:40 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
most interesting day for carry trades.yet more to come.

Geneva 19:36 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
The euro will close Friday below 1.45!

Stockholm za 19:19 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   

fwiw......¤¤¤
From the -1001 mistake new & small traders make –
This is # 374 :- Trading In Front Of The Market.
It is also fuel for the 95% / 5% ratio in FX...
e.g.… a live living example is the $Z methodology.

Happy trading........................

Stockholm za 19:04 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   

Re.....¤
EUR/USD >> Shows that Technical vs. Fundamentals at checkmate.
With a daily close of 1,4769 needed at the moment for any up side
Assault of the 1,5046.. Looks strategic positive above 1,4513.
And giving a 1,4216 re-evaluation.
Thus open range seen at 1,5295 <|> 1,3710
Happy trades…..

NYC jr 18:42 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
This too shall pass!

GENEVA DS 18:30 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
All the mess we are in now... it is certainly NOT the mistake ... of Bernanke. This is now the result of former politics in the FED,,, IMHO... not very easy to come here without massive critics now... We all can only hope for the best... Have a super evening... good luck to all....

slv sam 18:29 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:28 GMT /
not really, eurcad is extremely oversold!GT

Van jv 18:29 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON - President Bush suffered the first veto override of his seven-year-old presidency Thursday as the Senate enacted a $23 billion water resources bill .....

and what an issue for 23 B over 14 years
perspective:
1.44 Bil. US debt increase /day
about .8 B Iraq war/day

jkt rick 18:24 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
rate cuts dont help man, rate cuts have not done anything for stocks in 3 months. unless it is at 0% but by then oil would be $15 a gallon and there would be bloodshed in the streets of ny.

dc CB 18:21 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Long bond (30y) futures so far only managed a 12 tick rise. Even with a well received reopen auction just finished at the top of the hour. Safe haven money seems not to be going there.

Geneva 18:17 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
nasdaq down 100 , ben cut rate!!!! idiot!

Gen dk 18:09 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

jkt rick 18:05 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
higher oil prices are here to keep bernanke in check from unleashing mad policies. a no rate cut in october would have allowed oil prices to calm down, and a rate cut in december was a safer bet. he now learns that his research is only theoritical, practical markets cannot allow him to be super helicopter man, i hope the grilling today puts some sense in him.

London NYAM 18:03 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
I guess the circuit brakers won't come in until after 1450 breaks. Is kampo like the curcuit braker for USDJPY?

Lahore FM 18:00 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 17:57 GMT November 8, 2007
TH all well i hope?165.14 key to any upside on eurusd.short gbpjpy and eurjpy is what i am in.

madrid mm 18:00 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
who wants to be a Central banker ?
Not easy task at the moment for some of them that s for sure.....
I can "smell" the blaming " game coming up.

Charlotte TH 17:57 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Hello Lahore...what positions if any are you in right now? The eur.usd rally looks like it is going to end in the 1.50s. Any thoughts?

jkt rick 17:52 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
oil $5/gallon

this will not be a merry christmas.

Philadelphia Caba 17:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
long eur/gbp at 6954, s/l 6880

Lahore FM 17:28 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
put a lid*

Lahore FM 17:27 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:49 GMT November 8, 2007
London Carl 14:02 GMT November 8, 2007
thanx Carl,carry to unwind further despite bid on eurusd and gbpusd.
--
any sustained price action below 165.14 will likely cascade eurjpy to much lower levels.will also put a lif on eurusd upside.

JAK BOND 17:26 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Sorry typing error
USD Zeus not USA Zeus sorry Zeus..

madrid mm 17:21 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
I am falling in love with CAD !!!!!!

8-)

madrid mm 17:19 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Is the Loonie going to do us another 7 november 2007 ?
He wants to tease us again 8-)

Bon Air VA Dennis 17:19 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
yeah, yeah - Amerika is the only country in the world, anywhere in the world, with corrupt or incompetent politicians, now let's move this kind of posting to political forum where it belongs.

JAK BOND 17:17 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Good to buy oil now short at 97.50?

London NYAM 17:16 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Z//Fiscal policy is largely controlled by the president and, although i doubt this affected Greenspan directly, Monetary policy actions can be influenced by political considerations and what the Pres would "allow." In a battle between 'economic' (psychological included ie; optimism measures) considerations could have a greater influence then anti-inflationary mandate upon 'tight' calls. i think that's what the score-card indicates anyway. The policies of Vietnam caused a fiscal-related imbalance when inflation was a big issue (Oil crisis #1). It took some pretty drastic measures by the Fed to get that one back and by that time pro-action was kind of moot.

Mtl JP 17:15 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 17:08 / rofl, of course zeus. how about going back to honest money which is what made America greatest economic force on the planet

USD Zeus 17:12 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Obvious capitulation in USD negativity.
Look at the bright side- Stong USD policy all set to return and snap back leaving the dreary doomers in the gutter.

Cheers!

USD Zeus 17:10 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD Zeus 17:08 GMT November 8, 2007

promary=primary

FW CS 17:09 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
That's OK the Fed will just drop money out of helicopters. So any wagers how big the next Fed liquidity dump will be? Do I hear 100 billion? 200 billion? It is bad timing for Uncle Ben that is true to be here when these bubbles start popping.

USD Zeus 17:08 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Use your noodle. This is America not Communista. The US president DOES NOT control the economy- one of the promary differences that has made the USA the greatest economic force on the planet. It's called a free market system- Not communism.

Happy Freedom!

jkt rick 17:04 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
its very clear now, all the problems are both the work of bush and the maestro greenspan. bush would never have been re elected a 2nd time on november 2004 if greenspand did not leave rates at 1% from june all the way till the election was over. americans were having a good time but they were simply tricked. i wonder how much greenspan recieved from the campaign money.

Geneva 17:03 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
America should vote for Sarkozy!

austin mw 17:00 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 16:38 GMT November 8, 2007

CB, and if the American people REALLY want change then
he would be next president but won't happen because
the press want to see Gulianni and Clinton neither of
which will be nothing more than status quo.

jkt rick 16:55 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
They are in deep censored, but its too late. they should have impeached bush long ago. instead of grilling poor bernanke, he hasnt created any of the problems.

USD Zeus 16:53 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Joint economic committee just found out USD has declined slightly and they are scared $hitless. Looks like the go ahead USD rally is all set.

bibi

Geneva 16:52 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Look like Ben want to cry!!!, He is force by George to do the wrong thing!

dc CB 16:38 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
jkt rick 16:32 GMT November 8, 2007
what a senator,

That was Ron Paul - Texas Republican Congressman, who is running for president. But of course he's not taken as a contender/player and is mocked for his views.

hk ab 16:35 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
they start to care? but isn't that they just wanted the RMB to devalue many times?

jkt rick 16:32 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
what a senator, who was it who mentioned that the fed has to stop creating bubbles. and also "we have a dollar crisis here, and a 10% devaluations means an american has been stolen his net worth by 10%"

Gen dk 16:13 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 16:11 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
JAK BOND 16:07 GMT November 8, 2007

Looks like best best is to sell any rally points under $100. Buy dips above.


miami jf 16:04 GMT November 8, 2007
Depends on daily scalps and rallies etc. So adjustments are dynamic still.


GL GT! Out for now.

madrid mm 16:10 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
toying with the 1.47 level euro/usd at the moment.... Stating the obvious...

Where is this formidable Chinese official from 1-2 days ago ??? It would be nice for him or one of his colleagues to comment on potential Chinese FX new policy as it seems to me that Bennie and Trichet do not have nay effect so far... 8-( 0

JAK BOND 16:07 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus

Can I have your view for oil price for today and tommorow
Thanks appreciate your view

USD Zeus 16:06 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD and GBP/USD have a huge barrier keeping any rally from progressing. This may be the earliets stage of one of the biggest USD rallies in history as the cycle reverses.

Cheers!

miami jf 16:04 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
z... is there any level you have in mind where you wud stop buying usd ?

dc CB 16:01 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
it would be a truely remarkable thing if one of these Senators asked Bernanke:

"aren't off-balance sheet transactions the very practice that sunk Enron? Weren't people put in jail for that?"

FW CS 15:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 14:02 GMT November 8, 2007
Its interesting the last time Trichet said those exact same comments the Euro sold off hard. This time the market ignores him. So I think the time that verbal intevention knocks it down is past they will have to either put up or shut up.

Mtl JP
Public works? Sounds Socialistic.

USA Zeus 15:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
covered the remaining SP 500 shorts and shorted GBP/USD 2.1112.

Happy Day!

Mtl JP 15:51 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
CS 15:46 / in europe relatively strong ccy is good. for public works projects

Lahore FM 15:49 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London Carl 14:02 GMT November 8, 2007
thanx Carl,carry to unwind further despite bid on eurusd and gbpusd.

FW CS 15:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
How about this... Maybe the Europeans actually like a strong Euro?

jkt rick 15:44 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
The senate is talking about the dollar for the first time.

Gen dk 15:43 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

MLT PA 15:42 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 15:38 GMT
A combination of US politicians and the powerful corporations.

hk ab 15:39 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
eventually, ECB might not need the FED to help anymore to intervene by themselves like BOJ....

St. Annaland Bob 15:38 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 15:36 GMT November 8, 2007

may you please name some of the gangsters?

GVI john 15:38 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GVI Survey Analysis courtesy Cumino.
GVI Blog

Geneva 15:36 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Looking at Ben, how low the US went...!!!! Great country destroyed by gansters!

dc CB 15:30 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Bon Air VA Dennis 15:19 GMT November 8, 2007
dc CB 15:11 GMT
there are some,

don't be too hard on the guy, he's just an academic who gets to play a big part in this - croney corporate/state oligarchy, that we still call a democracy. Must make him feel really alive! lol.

jkt rick 15:30 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
anyone watching bernankes speech, the senate is falling asleep.

London NYAM 15:28 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 14:58 GMT//dont you think that view might mean bad news for your usdcad possie seeing as it may correlate?

Bon Air VA Dennis 15:19 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 15:11 GMT

there are some, like muself, who'd like to see him roasted, on a spit, over burning embers!

dc CB 15:11 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Beranake gets grilled. www.cpsan.org CSpan Radio

slv sam 14:58 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
still think euro will be over 47 today and over 48 tomorrow or Monday before some correction till early December, then up again to 155 end of the year! other views? GT

NYC NYC3 14:43 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
double whammy? I think you can't underestimate the ticked sentiment of eurolanders who hold a disproportinate % of subprime junk. They are ticked and then seling at 40 cent/1 and taking the forex loss as well. a large emotional element here.
the set up is huge, the buyer .

NYC NYC3 14:39 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
euroland has to be facing serious economic cracking with 1.47'

The only inevitablities are the consequences

hk ab 14:36 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
EU has no choice but to take this high EURO to resolve oil problem....

melbourne DC 14:24 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London DG 14:20 GMT November 8, 2007
no worries . all the best .

London DG 14:20 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Thnaks DC!! AFX seems a good call Cheers

PAR 14:19 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
$ 100 oil before Bernanke starts his testimony ?

melbourne DC 14:16 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London DG 14:11 GMT November 8, 2007
u may need to get afx from jay as he said quite abit .. inflation : risk to upside, sig above 2% near term expect to moderate later '08 (hump from oil n food) .

Bon Air VA Dennis 14:14 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
DC, no just about "humps"

London DG 14:11 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne, Did he say anything about Inflation?

London Carl 14:02 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
FM - trust you and your family are safe at the moment - quite troubled times in Pakistan. What are your current views for FX?

melbourne DC 14:02 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
00:58 *DJ Trichet: Forex Moves Sharp, Abrupt
00:58 *DJ Trichet: Brutal Moves Are Never Welcome
00:58 *DJ Trichet: Now Even Clearer That Strong USD In U.S. Interest
00:57 *DJ Trichet: Cites Strong Dollar Is In Interest Of U.S.
00:56 *DJ Trichet: Disorderly Forex Movements Are Undesirable

melbourne DC 13:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Would be lovely if Trichet focus on cautious moving ahead while Ben focus on telling mkt not to assume further cuts.

Lahore FM 13:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:46 GMT November 8, 2007
Como Perrie 13:42 GMT November 8, 2007
Perrie with all due respect,racial slur* not allowed on thisforum.infact shud not be allowed anywhere.

London DG 13:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
MADRID MM,

100 M small chnage ... lets make it a yard ;-)))

Lahore FM 13:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 13:42 GMT November 8, 2007
Perrie with all due respect,racialslur not allowed on thisforum.infact shud not be allowed anywhere.

madrid mm 13:31 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:26 GMT November 8, 2007
LOL

I don t have a car LOL

madrid mm 13:30 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London DG 13:26 GMT November 8, 2007
OK 100 M
LOL

madrid mm 13:30 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
mumbai Navin 13:20 GMT November 8, 2007
pleasure my cyber friend 8-)

PAR 13:26 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Madrid / Indeed in the South of Spain the nicest autopista s I have ever seen with almost no traffic .

London DG 13:26 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Madrid sold!

isr jweb 13:23 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
par - fantastic writing - am a vivid reader and like your summary.

I think that for the euro its alot about ego and a will to be reckoned as a superpower. the new 4th reich if you wish. aswell that they should have a nice cash flow with the world buying into their currency giving them options to spent without limits..

mumbai Navin 13:20 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:09 GMT November 8, 2007
mumbai navin, your answer at


MM - thanks. have always found you very resourceful and helpful. will look into the link for more details.

madrid mm 13:18 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
we should make a market on how many times Prez Trichet will use the word ," vigilence"
I ll make the market
17.5-19.5 any taker ?
8-(o

Hong Kong YH 13:16 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:55 GMT November 8, 2007

You think S&P will down? DJI future is up 56 now

London DG 13:15 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
and the Italians ;-) oh no they change their mind again they want the LIRA back !

madrid mm 13:14 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Spain knows what it want .. it wants free money from Europe

8-)

Maybe Trichet wants to show the viewers ow nice his tie is !!!!

madrid mm 13:13 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:08 GMT November 8, 2007

LOL
Bienvinida en Espana amigo !! Mana si si manana !!!

8-)

madrid mm 13:09 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
mumbai navin, your answer at
http://www.ecb.int/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html

Background

The three key interest rates for the euro area:

* The interest rate on the main refinancing operations (MRO), which provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system. The Eurosystem may execute its tenders in the form of fixed rate or variable rate tenders. Since 27 June 2000 the MRO have been conducted as variable rate tenders with a minimum bid rate.
* The rate on the deposit facility, which banks may use to make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem.
* The rate on the marginal lending facility, which offers overnight credit to banks from the Eurosystem.

look on the page entitled " background"

PAR 13:08 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Big problem for Europe is that they dont have a well defined forex policy . " Free markets, free trade , limited government " is an illusion . USA does everything to keep the USD weak , Japan does everyting to keep JPY weak, China keeps its currency pegged to the USD , Arab countries are pegged to dollar etc .. And, Europe , Germany wants a strong Euro, France and Italy want a weak currency,Spain does not know what they want,UK definitely wants to stay out of Eurozone and Trichet does not want to talk about forex . Why does he need to give a press conference if he does not know what to say in an english which is far from brillant ?

London DG 13:06 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH

IMO 2.13 / 2.15 is probable as FED rate to be deicided DEC 11th which right now is a lifetime away. It is fear that is driving everything at the mo not fundementals. US Housing and sub prime how far is it going to go ?? Know one knows! Until those fears are aligned it's all USD negative. So it seems a one way ticket at the mo! GL GT

London NYAM 12:55 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Im looking for Equities to slide into seemingly endless sell-off mode with circut breakers etc. S&P target s/t sub 1400

mumbai Navin 12:53 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
ECB says leaves marginal lending rate at 5 pct and deposit facility rate at 3 pct. This is in addition to the refinance rate at 4 pct. So, we have three different rates. Can anyone help me understand how these three different rates work? TIA

Gen dk 12:51 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong YH 12:50 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London DG 12:44 GMT November 8, 2007

Thanks for your comment. So do you agree to still long GBP? My target is 2.15

London DG 12:44 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
dc fxq ,Hong Kong YH.

Traders reacting rationally? This is herd mentality at the moment you have to think like a journalist rather than an analyst at the moment ! Unfortunately a lot of this is self full filling thus when the wind changes watch out !

GVI john 12:39 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in red navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI

Como Perrie 12:38 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
NYAM

this appears onto the norther rock logo... so doubt was King, but the bankers there exagerating as usual to gain onto their options plans. Btw It was months before that hedge funds sniffed King practicies to help an already troubled insitution which is now loosing the fundings to help those loans alive, and at first occasion eroded the value on the footsie.

northern rock - Low Rate Loans, Mortgages, Savings & Insurance

Gen dk 12:35 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 12:32 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
am now long usdjpy at 30

London NYAM 12:29 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA//The Northern Rock event wasn't really Kings fault but he appeared psychologically dented. The latest moves arent orchistrated by the Bank so no prize for effort. I am just saying that I beleive there is a tendency to play it safe and predictable when you have lost the psychological upper hand. It would have been prudent iven the state of the British economy and the state of the US to follow the US lead and do what one can to stave off the a contagion in housing problems here. The signs are there and the pound could do with a little slowing down (yeah i know its not part of their remit).

isr jweb 12:28 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
monaco - time to go long?

AZUSA 4x-ed 12:23 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:15 GMT November 8, 2007
Not sure about 'clever decisions', but it doesn't appear to be a lack of effort: "Northern Rock is thought to have contacted Asian banks as it seeks a buyer" - FT

London NYAM 12:19 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Adding to my short USDJPY from 115.25 if we get to 113.20-50. Nice bounce opportunity to get some more leverage into the next leg.

GVI john 12:16 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Perriie thanks
Market forecasts for future ECB policy...
GVI BLOG

London NYAM 12:15 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
BoE no change was not surprising but it was a bad move IMO. This would have been a good opportunity to ease back and forestall a consumer led squeeze. But I think they are having problems making any clever decisions after the Northern Rock debacle.

dc fxq 12:14 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 12:05 GMT

because traders are no longer reacting rationally to news of an event when the outcome is as expected.

madrid mm 12:12 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
tokyo nick 11:47 GMT November 8, 2007

bbc radio 5 live 8-) on the internet

Como Perrie 12:10 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 11:56 GMT November 8, 2007

tks, good recap

maybe not the best day to trade short term today with all those speeches and some minor datas.

better maybe watch the asean shift once again as US markets hours as of late are loosing tone.

isr jweb 12:10 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
because there was a excpectation of a chance that they might lower rates.

Como Perrie 12:06 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
a BOEs cut was so far given just 35 pct of chances. Was thinking some with the housing in UK to be severe as well.

Hong Kong YH 12:05 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Even GBP keep the same rate, how come GBP still up a lot? Anyone knows

London NYAM 12:03 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
EURGBP should test .6949 again soon. A likely overshoort could bring us back to ..6985/95 before basing for a major assualt.

bris 12:03 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
BOE= unch

Melbourne Qindex 11:59 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 2.1014.

Como Perrie 11:58 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
BOE might even be forced to cut imvho

GVI john 11:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
ECB Policy decision outlook on Blog
Visit GVI Blog

Syd .. 11:50 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Governments and central banks must act to correct foreign exchange imbalances when they emerge, Renault SA (13190.FR) Chief Executive Carlos Ghosn said Thursday.

"It's obvious that the central banks and governments of Europe on the one side and the U.S. on the other must ensure that when exchange rate imbalances emerge they are understood and corrected," Ghosn said in a radio interview.

He observed that when a currency depreciates it doesn't just have positive consequences for that country's economy.

"I'm quite sceptical about the economic advantages of a weak currency," Ghosn said, referring to the weak U.S. dollar that has been plumbing new depths against the euro on a daily basis.

"On the contrary, when a currency is strong, we are very careful about our productivity and remaining competitive," whereas when it's weak there's a tendency to be more lax, he noted.

Melbourne Qindex 11:48 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : In the mean time the market is just vibrating around 236.83 with an expected magnitude of 235.86 - 237.81.

madrid mm 11:47 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, said it offered to buy rival Rio Tinto Group, a proposal that was rejected.

BHP, based in Melbourne, said in a statement to the Regulatory News Service it ``recently'' wrote to the Rio board with an outline plan for a merger. BHP has again written to Rio to try to arrange a meeting. Rio stock rallied as much as 24 percent in London, while the company has a current market value of $158 billion.

A combined company would challenge Brazil's Cia. Vale do Rio Doce as the world's largest supplier of iron ore as rising demand in China pushes prices of the raw material used in steelmaking to a record. BHP would also gain access to more than 15 million tons of copper and 4.3 million tons of aluminum. Rio Tinto's annual profit rose 43 percent to $7.44 billion in 2006.

``Rio is a massive cash generator,'' Joe Youssef, a senior adviser at Macquarie Equities Ltd. in Sydney, said before today's statement. ``You can see why it's an attractive proposition based on its cash flows.''

Rio Tinto shares rose to as high as 5,399 pence, a record, and traded up 20 percent at 5,240 pence as of 11:23 a.m. in London.

tokyo nick 11:47 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
may i know where can get the fastest news about the BOE interest that will be coming out soon?

Melbourne Qindex 11:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.4658.

madrid mm 11:45 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
BoE. A big urprise i wish from BoE... Wether a cut or rise... I do not mind 8-)

Maybe the BoE gov. will have to write a letter 8-)

Remember, hope is not a Strategy !

Como Perrie 11:45 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
cable has minor support around 2.1000 and 2.0960 the bigger one. While holds there trend is still on up apparently.

isr jweb 11:44 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
you are probably right hong kong - this is the usd story.. how sad..

Como Perrie 11:44 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
both BOE and ECB are set for a no change in rates.

afternoon we do have Trichet and Bernanke speeches.

not much to say today as carry trade early london has restored some apparent normality.

usdjpy have stops at 113.30 with a reversal long if hit

Hong Kong YH 11:40 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
anyone support to long GBP? today even the housing data is not that good. But GBP still up. I think USD is too weak. There is no reason for GBP drop. What do you think?

tokyo nick 11:37 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
22 mins to go?

Melbourne Qindex 11:36 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : It is vibrating around 236.83 with an expected magnitude of 234.88 and 238.79 for the time being.

melbourne DC 11:29 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Rio trading stopped??

Gen dk 11:27 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London DG 11:25 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
BOE 50/50? really think thye will hold wait and see approach, think the market would be suprised if there was a cut today

Jerusalem ML 11:20 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
BOe could cut 25bp
chances are 50/50% in my view

g/l

Melbourne Qindex 11:20 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is basically vibrating around the weekly cycle projected chart point at 2.0972 with an expected magnitude of 2.0972 - 2.1067. The magnitude may be extended further into 2.0925 - 2.1114 in the New York session.

Philadelphia Caba 11:17 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
good morning!
any chance of BoE cut?

Melbourne Qindex 11:15 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Weekly cycle extreme targets are 1.1260 and 1.1302.

isr jweb 11:04 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
thanks monaco. par.lol. what do u think bernanke is going to say today?

Monaco Oil man 11:01 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Morning,

Well I am giving the jpy the chance to do it's thing ...However if we do go above 113.20 for an hour+ , then there won't be any dips , and carry will go back to high.
I took some more GBPUSD at 2.1050..Stops still yesty high , though most important is $/Y not running higher than 113.20.
If $Y does go above 113.20 , then the "dip" is finished , back to buying nzd , gbp , aud etc..

GL.

melbourne DC 10:58 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
21:53 *DJ BHP Billiton Confirms Approach To Rio Tinto

Gen dk 10:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 10:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
The higher headline inflation the lower core inflation . After buying food and energy ( a mortgage he no longer has to pay since his house was foreclosed ) Joe Sixpack has no money left and needs to shop a superdiscounters .

isr jweb 10:45 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Par i agree, my question is that at these levels there is a chance that they are buying cheap, i.e. if the euro & cable strengthen, or might loose.

What currency do they carry-trade most?

PAR 10:44 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Unrest in Georgia could disrupt oil supply if pipelines are cut off .

isr jweb 10:38 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
what does anyone say on aud/jpy? anyone trades this?

PAR 10:37 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
After USD and EUR , JPY is the most traded currency with increasing volume which imho indicates that still more and more carry trades are being put on .

isr jweb 10:32 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
i think that there is no serious signal yet. maybe a serious break of the yen below 112.75 as monaco stated yesterday. the market is relatively quiet before the interest news, and could suprise either way.

Below 236.2 could be a good signal, but if you want to take a small risk it might be worth the effort...

Ramat Afal SBS 10:18 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb, how about going short GBP/JPY, at current levels,
if short, what price should serve as a stop ?

oil man, if around are you still bulish AUD now as things look different than yesterday, as you are negetive GBP.

many thanks

slv sam 10:16 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Dubai mrs 10:03 GMT /
really? I do not know!
but I can warn you to take care about Dubai sky when falling!GT

madrid mm 10:15 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:11 GMT November 8, 2007

I would like to ee this comment on wine LOL

madrid mm 10:11 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 09:45 GMT November 8, 2007

We know only 2 things in here.....
One day we will stop breathing for good and the seconf thing is that we will pay taxes, directly and undirectly 8-)

FWIW and on a friendly note, ask yourself once you enter a trade
-How much am i ready to lose
AND NOT
-how much i will make 8-) <---wishfull thinking

PAR 10:11 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Trichet will say he is worried about parabolic rise in money supply in Eurozone and rising inflation expectations. Thats why he injected a couple of € billion into the system . On forex he will refer to G7 meeting where the only comments he made was about the quality of the wine . On carry trades he has been permanently wrong by his stupid warnings .

Toronto tn 10:08 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Toronto tn 01:55 GMT November 8, 2007
Sold some cad/jpy @ 121.70, stop over the figure.

Closed half at 121, stopped for rest at cost. Maybe look to get long, not quite clear yet.

Dubai mrs 10:03 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 09:59 GMT November 8, 2007
What about in the last 2 years?...you have been known as act like chicken Little screaming " the sky is falling", every time there was a 50 pip move....

slv sam 09:59 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 09:45 GMT /
my track record for the last 2 days speaks for itself :)

Nepal Bumbiol 09:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 09:45 GMT November 8, 2007
that my friend is the wrong question. what you shul be asking is 'how certain is jweb'. once you know the answer nothing else should matter. thank you for being part of the circle of life!

London NYAM 09:52 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
the euro is likely to test 1.4550 before trying again for a new high. (unless it fails below, in which case...)

isr jweb 09:45 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
how do you know that its going, how certain are you?

slv sam 09:42 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 09:39 GMT/
why we trade?

isr jweb 09:39 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
how do you know slv?

EU theEUROqueen 09:38 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 08:26 GMT November 8, 2007
Happy day Bob..

the problem is like that noone truth the USd anymore..the spike to 1,47** it becomes from a very big size FX players..
BUT 1,475 was a very wll protected..if u know who was on the offer u will know the next move for the usd..I closed some from my longs but the euro still for me a buy on every dips ..

happy trade

slv sam 09:33 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Euro to 1.4850! if not today, tomorrow!GT

PAR 09:33 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY higher on back of new carry trades ahead of ECB and BOE meetings . Could squeeze higher to 114.00 with some help from Kampo and BOJ .

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:32 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
The Times' Shadow MPC voted 6-3 to leave rates on hold. The SONIA swap curve is pricing in a 30% chance of a surprise 25bps rate cut today, with the curve implying full 100% probability by February 2008. The BoE rate decision is due at 1200GMT.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will likely stick to the script of his last briefing on October 4, i.e. reiterate “ monitor very closely”, but at also read a statement maintaining a defacto tightening bias for now but clearly acknowledging that the ECB's hands are tied as long as financial market turmoil persists and the economic outlook remains clouded. ECB rate decision is due at 1245GMT.

Happy hunting!

Mumbai NS 09:30 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Geneva on a macro view where do u see euro and sterling eventually pushing to tks in advance gl gt

Mumbai NS 08:39 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
It looks like market wants to continue the bull bull play but there is some visible difference in price moves gl gt

isr jweb 08:31 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
any idea where anyone we are pushing today? higher or lower? looks to me the market wants to shrug off the yel lowness and start bullying again.

Thanks

St. Annaland Bob 08:26 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
good morning! ... in principal, I am doing my very best to be fair towards all, that's a major issue for me ... the recent 'mad dog' attack from Jim Rogers and others who share position/trade targeting the US financial world has legs on the ground, that group did not shot blindly with their claims ... BUT, putting light on a problem from someone at such a caliber deserves also offering alternatives to solve the problem and not only calls to break down the house (or to have ready plans for the new house) ... the markets and products Mr. Rogers and his partners pimp as great investments offer much more unbalanced ratios of income, much more unfair system, much more dictatorship than the house Mr. Rogers calls to break down ... this my voice to keep things in balance ... good and safe trades to all

Nairobi SK 08:20 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GL, most grateful - I will put stops. I don't have the nerve yet for long term trade. Thanks again

Como Perrie 08:18 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Emerging markets being hardly hit by global credit worries.

Geneva 08:15 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Nairobi SK 08:02 GMT November 8, 2007

If you are new, please put stops on you trade don't look long term target.

GL

Nairobi SK 08:13 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Qindex thanks. What you've said will be helpful, hopefully. I won't mind comments on a wider time frame...a week or so, if you don't mind

madrid mm 08:13 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
2nd time lucky may be on the 1.47 euro/usd...?

Hong Kong Ahe 08:03 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Japanese market is out? Ready to break 112.50. Think....

Nairobi SK 08:02 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GL, am new in forex so mine is just a small trade.
Thanks for your remarks, I'll watch my back...LOL

Melbourne Qindex 07:58 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Nairobi SK 07:35 GMT - Your time frame is too specific and I don't have right tool to handle it. I guess the market will work on the barrier at 0.8501 // 0.8547.

Geneva 07:57 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Nairobi SK 07:52 GMT November 8, 2007

I don't know how strong you are, but it is important that we will not close below 0.8450 any time, keep on eye on it.
a break of 0.8950 will open upside.

GL

Nairobi SK 07:52 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Geneva thanks...I'll be cautious. I'm long on it fingers crossed

Maribor 07:50 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
jkt rick 06:34 GMT November 8, 2007

My data are based on REER and current account from 1980-2005. It is not just oil, which is imported, whole balance of tradeble stuff changes relative to exchange rate. Because prices of goods are quoted in USD, sensitivity(% GDP per % change of REER) is less than in other countries.

Geneva 07:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Nairobi SK 07:35 GMT November 8, 2007

Long term aud/cad should be above 1.00, the cad is just over over value, but short term it is very diffucult to trade this pair.

Nairobi SK 07:35 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Qindex I value your ideas...thanks
Any idea where AUD/CAD is headed within this session?

Mumbai NS 07:28 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 07:11 GMT November 8, 2007

Mate sounds a gud idea if call on interest rate works it culd be the trade! gl gt

Geneva 07:11 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
I will sell agresive US bonds here! they will die for buyer yield will rise! A sell.

Melbourne Qindex 07:11 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market will challenge 163.98 again. Keep an eye on the level 163.38 - 163.30.

Geneva 07:05 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
We heading into end of the year crash.... Haleluya...!

Como Perrie 06:57 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 06:48 GMT November 8, 2007

might be... me reversed short around yesterday closing again

currently a drop of some 30 60 pips might be seen imvho very rapidly.

madrid mm 06:50 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
It is BoE and ECB turns today !!!! 8-)

madrid mm 06:49 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
maybe this Loonie decided to take off as the 0.90 level usd/cad held so far...
Or maybe KAMPO and Co decided to let the yen for the time being and try to diversify... 8-)

In any case this "massive" (?) correction do not happen averyday

8-)

Melbourne Qindex 06:48 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is going to challenge the level at 112.00 - 112.06 again. Keep an eye on 111.42.

madrid mm 06:39 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
good evening Asia , Hello EUROPEAN OPEN

* Japan Sep core machinery orders -7.6 m/m, -0.6% eyed, -7.0% y/y, Q3 coreorders +2.5% Q/Q, +3.1% seen for Q4.

* Japan Oct money supply M2+CDs +2.0%y/y, broad liquidity +3.6%, bk loans +0.7%.

* MoF flow data wk-ended Nov 3 - Japanese buy net 117.0 bln foreign stocks,Y918.0 bln bonds, sell Y82.9 bln bills; foreigners buy Y202.2 bln Japanesestocks, Y288.0 bln bonds, Y53.7 bln bills.

* Morgan Stanley reports writedowns of $3.7 bln - Bloomberg.

* Australia Tsy Costello - Low jobless mean more inflation pressure - DJ.

* Australia Oct employment +12.9K, unemployment 4.3%, +20K and 4.2% eyed, full-time employment +70.6K, participation 65.0%, as eyed.

* NZ Q3 adj unemployment 3.5%, employment -0.3% Q/Q, 3.6% and +0.4% eyed, laborforce participation 68.3%, 68.8% eyed.

* China PBOC - Still studying direction investment plan in Hong Kong, monitoringsituation to see if more rate hikes needed - DowJones.

* HKMA Yam - No plans to peg HKD to basket of currencies, may consider moreinterventions in money market - DowJones.

GMT
06:45 CHF Jobless
07:00 GER Trade Balance
07:45 FRA Budget - Yr-T-D
08:00 GBP Halifax House
08:30 SEK Ind. Production
Singapore Deepavali holiday, market closed.
12:00 BoE MPC interest rate decision/no change to 5.75% repo rate eyed.
12:45 ECB interest rate decision/no change 4.0% refi rate eyed.
13:00 ECB President Trichet press conference.
14:45 ECB/Bk of Finland Liikanen speech in Elville, Germany.
15:00 FOMC Chairman Bernanke testimony before Joint Economic Committee.
23:15 US TsySec Paulson speech in New York.

USD/JPY and JPY cross players were whipsawed as these pairs initiallycontinued lower into Asia, only to reverse course later and sail higher. Theyhave since come off their highs with Asian stock markets weak and helping topush JPY back up as shorts cover on risk aversion. Offshore names were among thebest sellers early. Japanese players came in on the buy-side as are prone to do
after large moves down. Importers, margin players and retail and institutionalinvestors were among the mix of buyers alongside offshore players coveringshorts. USD/JPY broke below the New York low of 112.61, tripping stops sub-112.60 and 112.50 and trading down to 112.00 before reversing course and soaring
to 113.04.

[EUR/JPY] saw some stops tripped below 164.80, trading down to a lowof 164.10 before racing up to 165.74. It is now back below 165.00.

[EUR/USD] opened at 1.4640 in Asia with EUR/JPY sales weighing into the USclose. JPY-buying continued very early in Asia with EUR/JPY crashing further.EUR/USD fell to 1.4615 as a result before bids returned. Tokyo aggressively took
up EUR/JPY thereafter, allowing EUR/USD to push back up to 1.4571 helped alongby US fund buys. EUR/USD later slipped back to the 1.4630 level as EUR/JPYeased.

[GBP/USD] opened in Asia at 2.1020 after receding from multi-year highs at2.1072. Heavy GBP/JPY sales helped, prompted by the Wall Street plunge. GBP/USDfell to 2.0971 very early in Asia as US funds continued to blast JPY crosses.Tokyo took advantage of the dips in the crosses, buying decent amounts ofGBP/JPY and helping GBP/USD push up to 2.1032. USD gains in the afternoon sawGBP/USD drifted back to 2.1000.

[USD/CHF] did not do a whole lot, holding between 1.1311-46 with Singapore onholiday today. CHF flows in the region are usually centered there.

[AUD/USD] opened at 0.9275 in Sydney and traded a 0.9190-0.9300 range.Volatility was back with a vengeance with the first move down hard in thetwilight zone between the New York close and Asia open with Wall Street closingvery weak. JPY buy-backs across the board saw AUD/USD to the lows before a quickU-turn with Tokyo buying up AUD/JPY and pushing AUD/USD higher. AUD eased offlater as AUD/JPY faded. Employment data out today was a wash.

[USD/CAD] was in play early on heavy CAD/JPY sales from funds. USD/CAD rose to0.9406 before aggressive Tokyo CAD/JPY buys sent USD/CAD back down to 0.9253.USD/CAD has since bounced back to just shy of 0.9300.

[The Nikkei] gapped down at the open following the Wall Street collapseovernight. Weakness was seen into the afternoon as exporter shares continued tosell off. It is indicated at 15,730.60% going into the close, down 366.08 or2.27% on the day. The lows was 15,626.06. [TOPIX] is indicated at 1515.55, down41.14 or 2.64%%. All Asian bourses are down today.

[JGBs] futures moved up on safe-haven flows. The yield on the
benchmark 10-year JGBs fell to 1.540% from 1.560% at the close yesterday.

jkt rick 06:34 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
maribar
weaker dollar makes the current account deficit worse because it pays alot more dollars for imported OIL.

madrid mm 06:28 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Hello and GM FX Jedi,

another day at the office 8-)

as i just came in, any particular reason why this usd/cad spiked to 0.94ish ?

I missed it.. .Dammned

Alaska Moon 06:16 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 06:12 GMT November 8, 2007
========
I only said that because I am one myself !! LOL
Moon

Lepanto 06:15 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q, yu are abs right tks once more.

Mumbai NS 06:12 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Moon hmmm comes as a surprise to me u are usually the cool dude man ....peace and gt

Alaska Moon 06:08 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
RSA Santon 06:04 GMT November 8, 2007
========
LOL... In Alaska we call them "bottom feeders"..
Moon

Mumbai NS 06:08 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Looks like we are finally coming close to correction mode in the one way street though usdjpy can continue to head lower....wishing gud luck to all ....gl gt

RSA Santon 06:04 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Interesting to note how the $, having once again fallen, like a heavily weighted hook, line and sinker to the ocean floor and disturbed the ancient debris, has attracted the FF coelacanth population, who cruise these murky shadows, only appearing at times like this to feed on the left-over meal of the venison of the deep.

London 06:02 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 05:21 GMT Iran will be a smoking hole in the ground if he does the biggest Parking Lot in the middle east

Melbourne Qindex 05:53 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : It has potential to go lower. Keep an eye on 233.76.

Melbourne Qindex 05:52 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The downside targeting points, 234.10 - 234.88, for the weekly cycle hasn't been reached yet.

Melbourne Qindex 05:49 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Lepanto 05:40 GMT - Use your refresh button on top of the browser. Sometimes the old one was sticky. Let me know if you have any problem. The graphics should be labelled 11-1

Geneva 05:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
today Trichet will damage yesterday Sarkozy work¨!

Geneva 05:42 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
It is look like we are in a middle of economy war and the US for
the moment is the loser!

Lepanto 05:40 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Dr Qindex tks again yr analysis for EUR/CHF, but kindly advise me if i am mistaken,? the monthly chart you pusblished is the sept one? since has different projected points of what yu are saying below.

HK [email protected] 05:21 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
London 05:17 GMT November 8, 2007

He will not dare using a nuclear, because Israel has lot of them mounted on missiles in go around submarines.

London 05:17 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 05:13 GMT it will be too late by the time he has it and drops it

HK [email protected] 05:13 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the 3000 centrifuges is again on the news.

The world is being fooled by him, letting it believe he is out there for a nuclear bomb, but he may not, anyway still far from it.

Iranians do not think like arabs, and that guy there(Mahmoud) is out for a wide conventional war against Israel using massive missiles strikes and massive number of super trained foot soldiers in cooperation with Syria and Hamas in order to capture Israeli territories for a political settlement.

Ok!!! So any recoil in Swissy should be taken seriously for a buy, after which any event of this kind may send it to 0.98/$

CH Max 05:01 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Tks very much Provo

HK [email protected] 04:57 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
I think Swissy should be watched as being a potential substrate for carry trades soon. That based on a possibility for a recoil from that level.
Maybe Zeus will like to short some of this stuff and have a Happy day?

Provo John 04:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
CH Max 04:51

.9401

CH Max 04:51 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Hi all, pls cud somebody tell me the highest usdcad after NY? TIA

new brighton gvm 04:47 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:36 do you have a view on the $/yen at the moment ? TIA

Syd .. 04:42 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
^N225 Nikkei 225 15,635.55 11:20PM ET 461.13 (2.86%) -
^HSI Hang Seng 28,612.64 11:26PM ET 1,096.29 (3.69%) -
AORD All Ordinaries 6,554.10 11:39PM ET 174.00 (2.59%) -

SSEC Shanghai Composite 5,436.24 10:30PM ET 165.54 (2.96%) -

USA Zeus 04:36 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
The obvious is the obvious here. Bigger fish could scale in for the pending USD rally but even here and now Mahmood with his $250 credit card funded 400:1 acct can short EUR/USD and GBP/USD using a click and deal button for 1 lot and make some moolah.

Happy Day!

Syd .. 04:13 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei still stuck in 15700-15750 band, unable to trim losses as investors remain very cautious about bargain hunting; now down 2.5% at 15689.25. While market hurt by series of bad news including USD/JPY drop, slumping U.S. stocks, oil price rise, timing not yet good for bargain hunting amid "concerns about hedge fund selling arising from cancellation of contracts" with clients, says Japanese brokerage manager.

quito_ecuador_valdez 04:03 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Chinese hinted a portion of USD holdings should be liquidated. I don't know when that news hit but I know it was today sometime. Maybe that was a factor in USD tanking.

I would be prepared in this weird market for anything. If China wants to sell off some USD paper (sheesh, Treasury just sold a wad! Who bought it?) then this trend may catch in other Asian venues as well as in Moscow.

I have no earthly idea friends on what to do with USD. This one's really got me puzzled. I'm staying clear until I see some direction which may be for a long time.

Syd .. 03:59 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/CNY Down Midday; May Break 7.42 In Afternoon
Shanghai-based dealer with domestic bank says pair down after USD again fell to record low vs EUR overnight; adds strong demand for CNY from customers pushing pair further down, may be enough to break 7.4200 this afternoon

Syd .. 03:58 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
China's central bank monitoring economic situation to see if more rate hikes needed, says PBOC Assistant Governor Yi Gang; doesn't elaborate but comments come as other policymakers this week have been signaling renewed concern over excess liquidity, rising asset inflation among persistent economic problems. October data, including CPI, money supply, trade, due out starting next week, could trigger next tightening move.

Syd .. 03:40 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY Options Popular; Downside Risks Eyed


0329 GMT [Dow Jones] Despite USD/JPY's recovery from earlier nosedive, demand for USD/JPY options to guard vs downside risks shows no signs of fading, says Japan options trader. 1-month ATM USD/JPY straddles with $500-million face value bought at 12.5% earlier in session; notes "some players may have tried to cover short (options) positions", which could hurt them if USD/JPY falls more, sending prices of options higher. 1-month ATM implied vols last at 12%/13%, vs NY closing level of 11.5%/12%; "volatilities are pretty firm."

shanghai bc 03:28 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   

If such a belief is held by anyone in China,he or she was born only two years ago..China's stock market dropped non-stop for six year losing some 65% during 2000-2006 ..Most lumpen investors left the stock market in dispair and disgust..Then,the memory of the lumpen investors is always very short..

HK [email protected] 03:22 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Swissy has touches the important 1.1260 B4 a recoil.
For the time it is better not to be long Swissy (as I see it)as a possibility of a significant recoil looms.

HK [email protected] 03:03 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
The point about the China market bubble, is that there is a belief that the China Gov. has the power and the policy to absolutley control it and let it go higher and higher.
And also Jim Rogers is one of those who believe in higher and highers numbers(at least so he says).
So it is very common to hear many people say: "The China Gov. will not allow a Mkt collapse".

So now the communist party is into stock Mkt regulation LOL.

That kind of Mkt. invincibility feelings may be the mother of all disasters.

shanghai bc 03:02 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   

Gangs like Skin heads Gang,Motor bike Gang,Chain Gang and now Fan gang too :)

toronto Mamamia 02:57 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
adviser Fan Gang as saying

what kind of name is that , ??

pound yen still shorto

Syd .. 02:53 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
PBOC Adviser: Bubble In China Markets - Report

There's bubble in China's domestic capital market but risks in local stock market still controllable, Economic Information Daily cites PBOC adviser Fan Gang as saying. Remarks reflect rising concerns over risks in stock market, given benchmark Shanghai Composite Index has more than doubled in value so far this year. Government should take feasible measures, such as controlling money supply, preventing bank funds from flowing into shares, to prevent stock market collapse, he says; attributes excess liquidity to high saving ratio, huge trade surplus, FX reserves in country. "It will be possible for China to retain a high economic growth rate for another 20-30 years if it can prevent bubbles in the stock and property markets," he says

Syd .. 02:51 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 02:43 GMT for a longer term trade Yen favoured

HK [email protected] 02:43 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 02:20 GMT November 8, 2007

Indeed now I am into some number crunching which shows that a break of 111 which we are likely heading too soon(maybe even today) will imply 107.80 a breach of the ~110 target above.
So if 110 will be breached, there is a sub 100 target I posted B4 which drew some jeers at the not too far past hehehe.
Stage by stage lets wait.

Syd .. 02:20 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 02:18 GMT many are buying yen for the next run under 100

Syd .. 02:18 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy fears 'economic war’ as dollar slides
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/11/08/cnsarko108.xml

HK [email protected] 02:18 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 00:24 GMT November 8, 2007
USD/JPY could edge down to 110.00 by end of year
-----------------------------------------------------------
I read so many sophisticated article about Yen Tech. and mind boggling Elliot counts.
So let's keep things simple just an A-B-C count as below. On condition things do not run banana.
-----------------------------------------------------------
HK [email protected] 09:35 GMT October 22, 2007
Subject:
A simple approach to yen possible price target
------------------------------------------------------------
For a simple and reasonable target for yen take 0.618 of the the move from the HI of 124.13 to the LO 111.57 and deduct from the HI of 117.93

117.93+((-(124.13 - 111.57)) * 0.618) = 110.16792

So if the price will go there, some of you may like to take their profits hmmmm.

In case yen value will break below 110.16 we shall have to come up with a new target calcu.
So for the time all may remember this significant level, but things may get distorted too in this highly emotional environment.

------------------------------------------------------------

melbourne DC 02:10 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
New political tool / paradigm in Australia : the Phillips Curve .

la bfl 02:08 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
hi monaco,
whats your target on gbp.jpy short?

Thank u

London Neil 02:07 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 01:59

"although you don't want to know what I think is the eventual target."

I, for one, would love to know what you think.

HK [email protected] 02:07 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 00:49 GMT November 8, 2007

This recoile in Jpy is just T.A compatible as I mentioned Y.day that yen is heading close to 112.

I am not sure there is a major reversal from here.
If all Tech. works correct we are heading to the 110 vicinity.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:59 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Then why even pass a debt ceiling if all they do is bust it? Exporters in USA will be very happy the buck tanks but whomever sells to USA won't be thrilled at a $1.50 Euro. And that's where this is heading. I personally never thought USD would tank this rapidly although you don't want to know what I think is the eventual target.

austin mw 01:55 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
National debt passes $9 trillion for the first time

Martin Crutsinger | Associated Press
5:03 PM CST, November 7, 2007



WASHINGTON - The national debt has hit $9 trillion for the first time.

The Treasury Department, which issues a daily accounting of the debt, said Wednesday that the debt subject to limit was at $9 trillion on Tuesday. It was $8.996 trillion on Monday.

Last month, Congress passed and President Bush signed into law an increase in the government's borrowing ceiling to $9.815 trillion. It was the fifth debt limit increase since Bush took office in January 2001. Those increases have totaled $3.865 trillion.

Toronto tn 01:55 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Sold some cad/jpy @ 121.70, stop over the figure.

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:53 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
One more comment. Anyone who knows FX knows CBs coupled with huge banks control it "together" (allies?? It's said anyway.) within a certain "toleration zone".

Could this USD tanking be another manipulated setup to kill short popssies, suddenly reversing 355-500 pips taking profits at the expense of trend traders?

With the way the charts have been acting I don't trust much of anything actually. I used to be a long term position trader, now it's said by one friend who's major part of his business life has been trading any number of mkts, "Now days a 4 hr. candle is 'long term'."

quito_ecuador_valdez 01:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
I dunno about you guys but FX to me these days is pure luck. I've won straight every single trade last week but it's not been without a lot of nervousness. Up down up down and now this USD tank today vs majors.

At least one of several things is true to seemingly justify USD's weakness.

1. Obviously USD sellers' volumes outnumber buyers' volumes so who's selling this type of volume? Anyone have a handle on movement today? Mr. -bc-, give us the scoop..is China selling off USD? This to me represents volume...are Asia - Moskow liquidating USDs?
2. Extremely bad news has been constant on house forclosures in USA. Major funds shake. Investigations over fraud rumble. Does mkt interpret this + other financial shimmey as a sign to ditch USD investments? Dow down over 300 today. Gold holding solid well above $800. Not a good sign for USD or interest thereon.
3. More & more buzz daily about impending doom to US econ...starts with stagflation, goes to downright recession with yet more inflation...doesn't mean it'll happen but the way things are trending I don't see any light at the end of the tunnel, guys.

Bottom line, who has a well thought out theory/trading idea about why and how much more USD is gonna tank? No Ouiji board or hip shoot replies pleaze.

van Gecko 01:36 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
cheers Islander.. good to see you..
Newton's Second Law of Motion in speculation may be interpreted as F = Massive Acrophobia..;)

Bris 01:14.. good for you.. all surfers must start with little waves in order to gain the confidence to ride massive waves..
gl

Melbourne Qindex 01:22 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF: A shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 1.6683 which is the lower limit of monthly cycle normal trading range. The market is expected to consolidate within the extreme trading range of 1.6521 - 1.6602. A projected supporting point is located at 1.6440.

Bris 01:14 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 23:28 GMT November 7, 2007

The turkeys have been making profits so far.

Pullback down still a 3 wave affair, not 5
ie: not impulsive......
The top is not in yet.......

dc CB 00:56 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
somewhere in the archives, somebody wrote:

what starts in Asia ends in Asia. (the trading session)

Patra alex 00:50 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 00:49 GMT November 8, 2007

Still short gbpusd?

thanks

Monaco Oil man 00:49 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
$/Y pops back above 113 for more than 1 hour , and we have a new run upside for all the carries..."unwind" only last 2 hours now..LoL.

Monaco Oil man 00:47 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Stops at yesty high..

GN and GT.

isr jweb 00:46 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
is carry back? oy im loosing again

dc CB 00:43 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Hedge Funds Have Best Month in Over Two Years, Eurekahedge Says
Nov. 8 (Bloomberg) -- An index tracking global hedge funds recorded its best performance in almost two years in October as equities rose and commodities including gold and oil advanced....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=a6l.Yy9vCdGI&refer=japan

Sydney GE 00:41 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 00:24 GMT November 8, 2007
can you elaborate re these new hedging rules???

dc CB 00:35 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
So this whole thing started at about 2:00 GMT, a little less than 24 hrs ago, by the Chinese "rebalancing" remarks and then it snowballed. Read/listen to the "news" and the reasons given have been around for months, most of the time having no effect at all.

As the world turns some will see this as a buying opportunity. That has, for quite some time, proved to be the winning strategy. Will - buy dips- win again, or has there been a real turn in sentiment. Place yer bets.

LA BFL 00:33 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
HI Monaco Oil man ,

whats your stop for gbp/usd short?
Thanks

Syd .. 00:30 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Australian Oct Unemployment Rate 4.3%; Consensus 4.2%
Australian Oct Employment +12,900; Consensus +20,000

Syd .. 00:24 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY could edge down to 110.00 by end of year, lowest since 108.97 on May 17, 2006, as Japan investors likely to remain risk-averse, says Deutsche Securities senior FX analyst Koji Fukaya. "In terms of trends, the yen's bias is upward because the pace of capital outflows from Japan is moderating." Monthly average of Japan investments in mutual funds that invest in foreign assets around Y300 billion in September, October, he says; far below average Y1 trillion earlier this year. Decline also partly due to recently-tightened Japan financial rules; traders say rules have also hurt USD/JPY by making it more difficult for Japan banks to sell long-term FX hedges to importers. But Fukaya says sharp fall below 110.00 unlikely given Japan's low rates

Syd .. 00:10 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Dealers face $64 billion of CDO write-downs, say Citi strategists
Citi strategists say they expect to see around $64 billion of dealer write-downs to emerge, the bulk of which is likely to come from exposure to super senior CDOs of ABS. While noting that this is less than many in the market currently fear, the finding suggests that a number of dealers could reveal further large losses.On arriving at the figure, Citi says it assumes that dealers retained 60% of high grade deal super senior but 70% and 80% of mezzanine deal super seniors issued in 2006 and 2007 respectively (bearing in mind that about 30% of 2006 mezzanine CDO issuance was fully placed with investors and had no super seniors).

While mezzanine deals face the growing likelihood of the majority of their triple B collateral being wiped out as house prices fall, high grade deals may be hit on collateral to a lesser extent but also suffer from the presence of a sub-CDO bucket, and of rating or market-value linked triggers, they say.

To gauge individual dealer exposure, the strategists recommend looking at the nominal amounts of how much each issued in such deals for 2006 and 2007
Citi points out that those who entered the market at a late stage are ironically exposed to a greater likelihood of losses.

News Digest, 7 November 2007

USA Zeus 00:08 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Springdallah RJK 23:02 GMT November 7, 2007

Just need to learn more about analysis. That's all.

Cheers!

Bon Air VA Dennis 00:04 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
Springdallah RJK 23:02 GMT

I guess since you see no "technical reason" you don't consider RSI or Stochastics technical do you?

Syd .. 00:02 GMT November 8, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Bias Bearish; Carries Unwind;0.9104 Floor