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Forex Forum Archive for 11/10/2007

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GVI john 18:20 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
Log out now under the Home pull-down menu

madrid mm 17:09 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 11:24 GMT November 10, 2007
Please send us any other feedback on the new links setup. We will be working out any kinks after the switchover.

It is working very well from Madrid.
I like the new style , well done !!! 8-)

GENEVA DS 11:51 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
Interesting.. now all over the press we can read that EURO soon to replace USD as reserve currency.... HMMM... if this is gonna happen , then trouble could soon begin for EURO.... as so far as I know.. each time when a currency became reserve currency in history... it started its decline shortly after.... FRF...GBP...USD..... and now EURO.... ufff.... so will be exiting times coming , but we all definitely have to change our flexibility .. as times are chaning with light speed... all the best to all...

GVI Jay 11:24 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
Please send us any other feedback on the new links setup. We will be working out any kinks after the switchover.

HK [email protected] 04:17 GMT November 10, 2007
GVI Jay 04:00 GMT November 10, 2007

HOW TO LOGOUT PLEASE??????????????????

Geneva 10:43 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
Paulson Defends Dollar's Status as Trichet, Flaherty Decry Drop

By Simon Kennedy and John Brinsley

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson defended the U.S. dollar's status as the world's main currency after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty decried its slide.

With the dollar reaching record lows this week against the euro and Canadian dollar, Trichet called ``brutal'' shifts in exchange rates unwelcome, and Flaherty said he's ``concerned.'' Yesterday, Paulson broke new ground in saying ``there's a reason'' the U.S. dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades.

``There was a clear change in policy maker rhetoric this week,'' said Rebecca Patterson, a currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York.

Protests may escalate as European finance ministers convene in Brussels and the Group of 20 meets near Cape Town next week. Without a greater shift from Paulson, who has repeatedly endorsed a ``strong'' currency while hailing the stimulus to American growth from exports, the dollar is unlikely to react, analysts said.

Paulson reiterated yesterday that a ``strong dollar is in our nation's interest'' and that markets are the best judge of currency values, during an unscheduled session with reporters. At the same time, he fleshed out his standard statement to reject suggestions that the dollar's international standing is under threat.

``The dollar has been the world's reserve currency since World War II and there's a reason,'' he said. ``I put the U.S. economy up against any in the world in terms of competitiveness.''

China's Reserves

The dollar's standing as the principle holding of central banks was undermined after Xu Jian, a vice director of the People's Bank of China, said this week the dollar is ``losing its status as the world currency.'' China has the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves, totaling $1.4 trillion.

``There's a question in the market about reserve diversification,'' said Marc Chandler, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York. ``Paulson is trying to remind people that the dollar has a history and that he thinks its role is secure.''

Still, Paulson's comments don't match the shift in communication of former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, when he softened the ``strong-dollar'' policy in 1997.

Trichet on Nov. 8 revived language he last used during the euro's 2004 rally. The currency's moves ``were undoubtedly sharp and abrupt,'' he said.

Hours later, Flaherty said exchange rates are having a ``serious effect on Canada.'' Government figures yesterday showed Canada's trade surplus narrowed to the smallest since 1998 as exports slumped.

Decline Accelerates

The dollar has stoked American exports amid the worst housing recession since 1991 and threats to consumer spending. The trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to the smallest since May 2005 in September, the Commerce Department said yesterday.

Adam Cole, head of currency strategy at RBC Capital Markets in London, said officials are unlikely to intervene in the market and buy dollars because its decline hasn't yet become ``disorderly.''

``The market will still assume it has the green light to sell dollars,'' said Cole, who noted the U.S. currency kept falling against the euro even after Trichet's comments.

The weakening dollar does pose risks for the U.S., adding to inflation pressures at a time when the Federal Reserve has been lowering interest rates to safeguard economic growth.

Bernanke Optimistic

``We're going to make sure that the inflationary impact that may come from the weakening dollar is not passed into broader prices,'' Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said at a congressional hearing two days ago.

He added that he was optimistic there will be ``a sound dollar in the medium term.''

The rhetoric from Trichet and Flaherty is a change from when Group of Seven finance ministers and central bankers met Oct. 19 in Washington and repeated past language on currencies in their statement. ``Disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable,'' they said, without mentioning the dollar.

Officials altered their language after the dollar's dive accelerated, increasing concern about the outlook for the global economy as the U.S. slows and the cost of credit rises.

``The Canadians and the Europeans will push increasingly for a clear U.S. stance on these issues, especially since there is evidence that the price action has now started to have increasing momentum,'' said Jens Nordvig, a currency strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. based in New York.

Sarkozy Speaks

French President Nicholas Sarkozy told American lawmakers Nov. 7 the U.S. must support the dollar or risk triggering a trade war. Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper said the same day the Canadian currency's climb has been rapid and unprecedented ``by any standard.''

The G-7 hasn't intervened to buy or sell currencies as a group since September 2000, when it came to the rescue of a weakening euro.

``It may take coordinated interventions to halt the current slide in the dollar,'' though ``the G-7 aren't yet likely to be in a position to consider this,'' said Stephen Jen, head of currency research in London at Morgan Stanley. He predicts the euro will reach $1.51 by year-end from $1.4678 late yesterday, the highest close since its 1999 introduction.

HK [email protected] 04:39 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
Call your attention for one more defect ion the new G-V settings. Anytime I surf inside the G-V and return to the forum one more [email protected] price lines is added now I have already 5 of them

HK [email protected] 04:35 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   

EuRO to 1.5117

HK [email protected] 13:55 GMT October 3, 2007
Why Euro may go to 1.47 and more. Except the computations I offered in 2004 lets look on the following (and if you saw it done before by someone else forgive me):

Between the end of Feb 2006 up to 28Sep 2007 the euro has formed a bearish wedge on the chart which was proven on that unlucky day(28Sep) not to meet
the bearish expectations.

If you will compute the target of this violated bearish wedge turning bullish based on that breakout day I get a target of 1.5117.
BTW if you see Euro at 1.51 you will see much higher levels.
In order not to see 1.51, a serious struggle has to start at 1.4850 to stop the mad unjustifies surge of that EU-creature whom rises against it's masters

HK [email protected] 04:17 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 04:00 GMT November 10, 2007

HOW TO LOGOUT PLEASE??????????????????

GVI Jay 04:00 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
PLEASE NOTE: We have moved all links to the header at the top of our site. If you have any difficulty finding ng, please let us know.

HK [email protected] 03:48 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
The most simple way to look on the Yen now, is through the eyes of the beholder(like mine) for that H&S
Formation (let me choose the 4hours chart though it will not matter).
I tend to look at it seriously, also because the neckline really behaved as a resistance blocking any upward movement.
So like any one of you can do, the target I computed is approximately 112.77 - (117.93 - 113.38) = 108.22

Again if I don't bother you too much about repeating another calculation some recoil may occur at...
HK [email protected] 09:35 GMT October 22, 2007
A simple approach to yen possible price target
For a simple and reasonable target for yen take 0.618 of the the move from the HI of 124.13 to the LO 111.57 and deduct from the HI of 117.93

117.93+((-(124.13 - 111.57)) * 0.618) = 110.16792

So if the price will go there, some of you may like to take their profits hmmmm


But now that we know that 108.22 is a probable target maybe the recoil at that 110.16 may be mild or mute.

HK [email protected] 03:08 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
USD Zeus 16:42 GMT November 9, 2007
Well here it is after a bend but not break. The USD could be on its way to a legenldary reversal.
I think your country has forsaken you as the only lonely brave soldier left in D'ALAMO.

So to remind you: "REMEMBER THE ALAMO"

van Gecko 02:08 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
imo most long term trend following money players usually get out when the going is good while wannabies cheer & myopic short termers seeing all those money left behind always rush in near the end of all trends.. the absence of stablizing long/mid term money from the market exemplifies fear & greed with increased market volatilities across the board as transient bagholders lacking convictions play cat & mouse with each other..
what's unfoldiing now in the financial markets & carry trades is just the tip of an FX iceberg.. good signs for friends of the dollar trend till the end?

austin mw 00:32 GMT November 10, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 22:24 GMT November 9, 2007
The Federal Reserve Is Scared Silly

I am sure Uncle Ben wishes he was still in the ivory towers
of Princeton... He has been put in a box that he can't get out
of.. Either way he will lose.. One must not forget that we are only
12 months away from elections and he being a Republican needs to
prop things up.. He may have the shortest career as a head of the fed should a Democrat win, i.e. he resigns!!!


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