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Forex Forum Archive for 11/19/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Syd .. 22:51 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:28 aussie looks oversold at this level ?

NYC nyc-3 22:08 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
more than just GS alpha, many HFs that are way down will see redemptions and trading desks see it coming in Dec.
late summer/fall trends will resume into dec.

saopaulo cg 21:57 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
commentary about EURJPY of Jamie Saettele at dailyfx.com -

If a longer term EURJPY decline is underway, then the pair is about to enter one of the strongest points of the decline; which is wave iii of 3 of C. This interpretation is favored as long as price is below 163.25. Potential resistance is at 161.95 as well as 162.34. The initial bearish objective is at 148.04 (167.73 - (168.94-149.25)).

Strategy – Get bearish near 161.78/162.34, against 163.25, target 148.20

Syd .. 21:39 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
THE scramble for energy security in booming northeast Asian economies has produced a breakthrough deal - a long-term LNG export contract between Woodside and Taiwan's huge CPC Corporation that could add up to $45 billion

dc CB 20:29 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Global Alpha hedge fund may lose about $6 billion in assets this year, a 60 percent decline, because of trades that went awry and client withdrawals, according to two investors.

Global Alpha, which entered 2007 with more than $10 billion, lost 37 percent on investments through Nov. 14, most of it in August, said the Goldman clients, who asked not to be identified because the fund's performance is private. The New York-based company has about $2 billion in fourth-quarter redemption notices, on top of withdrawals through the year.

London NYAM 19:43 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
longed gbpjpy 225.10. s/l 223.87 target 229 to 230

Maribor 18:59 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Pecs Andras 18:47 GMT November 19, 2007

Small speculators are net short...maybe also EURCHF is resisting falling as it mimics USDJPY.

Pecs Andras 18:47 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Yen is bringing down all currencies against the USD save EUR.
What is keeping EUR bid so much?

FW CS 18:39 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Are we starting a new round of Yen carry liquidation? A close in $/Yen below 109.75 would break a daily bear flag line I have. That would open up the 109.11 low again made on 11/12 and below there 108. 108 being a very long term S/R line Japan will proabably jawbone and defend somehow.

Makassar Alimin 18:14 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
closed all gbpusd short at 2.0465, see you all tomorrow

Makassar Alimin 18:01 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
GT, looking at eurgbp, it is bullish so looking good, however it might also just mean that euro could rise more than gbp's rise, whereas we want gbp go down, all depends now on crosses then, maybe jpy can help a lot in this case to bring it down

USA Smarty 17:35 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
EDP, the problem you have with splits is in Firefox and there is also a poor renditin of the upper scrolling news. Not an issue using Internet Explorer for me but the dual panels scrolling at the same time is the same.

GVI john 17:34 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
EDP- we made changes to the forums over the weekend. We do not use Java because many have had issues with it over the years. As for the forum formatting question, we had to drop "frames" for a more modern technology so the new links would work. Note that posts now appear in under 10 secs. They used to be updated on a much longer refresh cycle. We are working though the user issues as they come up thanks for your feedback.

GVI Jay 17:34 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Toronto, contact me.

Also, this is why we are asking for feedback.

Toronto EDP 17:28 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Anyone else having problems with the new Forum formats ? It used to be that the regular Forum and GVI displayed in equal widths side by side with the ability to scroll each independently. Now, if reduced from a full screen to a part screen display, all of the forum width on the left can be seen but the GVI width on the right is approx. half width (unless you scroll over which you never had to...they used to divide equally) and now both forums scroll up/down together whereas before they were independent. I updated Java but still same problem.

Stockholm za 17:25 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   

NO !! That was not meant to be a joke.
That did took place on November 19, 1982
..............................

NY GT 17:21 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
thanks Alimin, yep it has been very frustrating, better get out and regroup if it does show your defensive level 2.0540 first

gold is also back above 780, day is not over yet however that is tilting the momentum slightly against us at the moment, stops are in place now, thanks again

Makassar Alimin 17:08 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
GT, maybe you would want to consider cutting loss from your 2.0438 entry if we see above 2.0540 again this time, you can always come back later at a better price hopefully, not to discourage you but this is just the way i see it, it should not go above that price anymore for the view to be valid

Makassar Alimin 16:58 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
NY GT 16:55 GMT November 19, 2007

yes, starting to look good, hopefully it is not too early to say so, anyway I am moving stop to just above last 4 hr bar high at 2.0535

NY GT 16:55 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, gbpusd is under 2.05 now, hopefully it stays there and we see some downside acceleration in the next 4 hours or so

Stockholm za 16:54 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   

re.....
Fed slashes discount rates
With the country staggering through a prolonged fiscal slump, the Federal Reserve took action, slashing the discount rate from 9.5 percent to 9 percent in hopes of jump-starting the stagnant economy.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:54 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
yeah I'm sorry - will direct the Q there..

I ask because here the local stock market is correcting and it's increasingly following the global markets... so here we bet some more upside in the local stoxx but it'll be necessary to have better int'l conditions..

madrid mm 16:53 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
sofia
this could behelpful

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/index.php3?market=DJ

Como Perrie 16:52 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:33 GMT November 19, 2007

am flat there currently. too busy elsewhere

madrid mm 16:51 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 16:46 GMT November 19, 2007

did you ask the future forum ?

jerusalem ML 16:49 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
sofia

hi

My bet is fed cutting rates , sending dow to 13500 yr-end

g/luck

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:46 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
pls excuse me - do any1 have some view on US stoxx till year end?

madrid mm 16:45 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Or maybe NYAM is a trader for Northen Rock and put the Chancellor in hot water !
8-)

13K on the DJ. So just a number or a psychological level ?

8-)

madrid mm 16:36 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:18 GMT November 19, 2007
Yards and yards of the stuff....

I hve this funny feeling that NYAM
1/ had too much Java and keep pressing the "buy" button on his keyboard UN intentionaly
or
2/ NYAM works for the Chinese SWF , ie the 1.4 Trilion one

8-)

London NYAM 16:33 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Como//Looking at the USDCAD i see a terminating pattern on short time frames (of course caveat being you see what you want at times) running aground around .9840 would help my pos.. Simlarly S&P should find some support netween 1425 and 35 with 1419 needing to hold. Ill leave that for now must go. Excessive screen watching is bad for your health...gtgl

London NYAM 16:29 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Perhaps Como// I came in long at 2.0467 and intended to add at 2.0415 s/l at 2.0348 bid. Dont see that getting hit but a run on 2.0450 is i agree very possible.

Como Perrie 16:22 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 16:18 GMT November 19, 2007

yet room to go there imo...hard to see todays highs revisited both eurusd and gbpusd imvho

Como Perrie 16:19 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
eurusd looking around printed lows 14620 somehow

London NYAM 16:18 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Yards and yards of the stuff. I cant stop buying Alimin.
Seriously thugh i agree if 2.0450 breaks then the drop will be a good one. Still dont see it though. Think we stabalize around here and reverse...

Makassar Alimin 16:16 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
NY GT 15:51 GMT November 19, 2007

yes GT it is a bit frustrating, sitting on my hands now, if only NYAM could stop bidding it so we can have an easy day

btw your entry 2.0438 short should come fast once even promising more once 2.0450 is broken, patience is needed now

Como Perrie 16:13 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
maybe good idea to short eurusd around current too

Como Perrie 16:03 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Dow attempting below psycho 13K... overall multidays am still looking 12.5K

gl

NY GT 15:51 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:49 GMT November 19, 2007

i think it will NYAM, it is just that it is taking too slow to do that, praying here that gold will make new low and close near low, that should do it

London NYAM 15:49 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
GT//If S&P can break under 1438.50 then GBPUSD should get knocked down with more unwinding of GBPJPY and yu and Alimin can have a party. If not then we get more rollercoaster fun.

NY GT 15:46 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
it is very frustrating to see gold is tanking and yet cable is still above 2.05, still trapped from 2.0438, should have closed earlier around 2.045x

Makassar Alimin 15:32 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:28 GMT November 19, 2007

hate it when we go against each other, won't make it easy for you this time ;) good luck

London NYAM 15:28 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Alimin//Well you've made your money on half now its my turn. lol!

Makassar Alimin 15:26 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:22 GMT November 19, 2007

thanks NYAM, i was lucky
i believe gbpusd shouldn't really go back to my entry now

London NYAM 15:22 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Nice one Alimin about a pip every 3 seconds. gt!

Makassar Alimin 15:13 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
take profit half gbpusd short at 2.0505, stop at BE

Makassar Alimin 14:54 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
gold is tanking, not sure which one is lagging here, but will give it a try, short gbpusd 2.0542 s/l 2.0583

madrid mm 14:33 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
fwiw ,

i would suggest to approach the markets with a professional attitude. Do not trade out of boredom or for entertainment.
8-)

HK Kevin 14:27 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Most of the pairs are traded within a triangle. Better stay sidlined. I only hold tiny short Cable from 2.0546 with s/l above today's high.

London NYAM 14:24 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
mm/lol Thats needed too!
Hit on short USDCAD now. .9810 s/l .9888 target between .95 and .96 as per my weekend post.

madrid mm 14:21 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London HC 14:12 GMT November 19, 2007

nope...The calm before the storm IMHO

madrid mm 14:20 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Java as in coffee ?

8-)

London NYAM 14:17 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Seems to be working now. Guess i needed new JAVA. My limit sell for USDCAD .9810 not filled yet. strange.

London HC 14:12 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Has the holiday started already?

NYC ET 13:52 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Same for gbpusd

NYC ET 13:51 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd pop just now probably caught some short

Global-View Blog 13:22 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
This is from a report in our blog section. To access it, CLICK HERE

Despite, the news over the weekend that GCC nations may be considering the idea of abandoning the dollar peg, the greenback saw no further sales on diversification fears. Oil producing nations find themselves in a difficult position now as they continue to earn revenue in dollars, but import a significant portion of their goods from the Euro-zone, creating very strong inflationary pressures within their economies.

London NYAM 13:00 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Thanks for the variety of responses (entertaining as well). Ill try the Java updates. In the mean time i probably wont be posting until i sort it out as it is mucho annoying to try and get this working. So glgt FF.

GVI john 12:14 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in red navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
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NZD/USD

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Updated twice daily. Access GVI free

Chart Points and Moving Averages

Charts: Updated Bourses..
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Syd .. 12:13 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
A UK-based bank trader hearing talk of cable buy orders above 2.0550. He thinks these are a combination of stop losses and technical buy orders.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:12 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:04 GMT - I will take a look on Gold tomorrow. Basically it is still positive.

Gen dk 12:10 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Smarty 12:08 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Its a girly thing, you wouldn't get it

Hong Kong Qindex 12:06 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:04 GMT - What is PMs

hk ab 12:04 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, could you kindly offer some help on PMs in future forum? Million thanks.

Hong Kong Qindex 12:02 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:57 GMT November 19, 2007
GBP/USD : The market is vibrating around 2.0507 with an expected magnitude of 2.0448 - 2.0566 for the time being. The upside target is 119 pips above 2.0566 and the downside target is 119 pips below 2.0448.

GVI Jay 12:02 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Please send us your feedback on our upgrades.

ZA, what you are seeing is just the forum page refreshing and not the full screen, which you are used to (next page is what is at the bottom of the forum page and is fixed text). The banners and buttons refresh separately now and latest post is coming in near real-time.

iom stan 12:02 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za

you might well check that your java is up to date . I got an up date last week and I have no problem

RSA Sandton 12:01 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
MLT PA 11:50 GMT Thanks PA, the sales guy at the local PC shoppie did mention that MS VISTA OS is so powerful that you can download a refreshing cup of Java coffee over the Internet. Sounded dubious, but now you confirm it.

PAR IB merci beau coup

Hong Kong Qindex 11:58 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
The followings are still valid :


Hong Kong Qindex 03:50 GMT November 19, 2007
USD/JPY : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 109.14 // 110.02. Speulative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 110.50.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:27 GMT November 19, 2007
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range is 2.0496 - 2.0566.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:18 GMT November 19, 2007
USD/CHF : The weekly cycle charts indicates that the market is going to vibrate around 1.1170 with an expected magnitude at 1.1109 - 1.1230 for the time being. The projected supporting barrier at 1.1087 // 1.1118 is going to be tackled. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 1.1192 // 1.1214.

Stockholm za 11:57 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   

London NYAM >>
Don’t worry with those guys. The problem is NOT with your computer.
There is a bug some where in the up grade done on the site…

MLT PA 11:50 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Working well from this end. People encountering problems should check the Java download section.

RSA Sandton 11:42 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:24 Disable all Active-X controls might stabilize it. My PC refreshes even with "no refresh" selected, and a little voice comes out of the speaker offering me coffee. Strange.

Makassar Alimin 11:40 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:24 GMT November 19, 2007

NYAM, maybe a precursor to market today as well, unstable that is :)

Stockholm za 11:38 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   

London NYAM >>
Yes it is definitely un stable today,
I keep getting a -next page- screen in between refresh,
And all the Ali Baba and the 40 thieves banner above and on the sides have disappear.

Gen dk 11:34 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

RSA Sandton 11:28 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:24 GMT More Active-X code than posts. lol

London NYAM 11:24 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Jay// and any other ff members//
re: new format. I am finding that both on my home pc and now at work the platform appears to be unstable. When it refreshes i begin to loos some of the Windows buttons (such as tabs on the bottom) and eventually the entire screen goes beserk and starts flashing between windows umtil i close GV.
Wondering if anyone else is getting this? I only ask as its happened on two different comps now.

Gen dk 11:13 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ldn 11:10 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Cable above 2.0480 opens topside toward 2.0660,

madrid mm 11:10 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 11:07 GMT November 19, 2007

You might be right 8-)

for a trader point of view, as long as it moves, i am happy !!!
8-)

Makassar Alimin 11:10 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Maybe it is about time...

DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)--Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, has no intention to revalue the kingdom's dollar-pegged riyal currency, the country's finance minister was cited as saying Monday.
"I hope this is clear to all - there is no intention to raise the riyal's exchange rate," Ibahim Al Assaf told Riyadh-based Al Watan daily.
Asked if Gulf countries intend to depeg their currencies from the dollar, Al Assaf told the daily: "I can't talk on behalf of Gulf countries."
Arab Gulf states, that pump a fifth of the world's crude oil, are coming under pressure to abandon the policy of pegging their currencies to the plummeting greenback.
Leaders of the group of six Arab states that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council will meet next month in Doha, Qatar, and are expected to discuss a strategy to deal with the impact of the falling U.S. dollar.

madrid mm 11:08 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
i think GBP will be strong today because the Queen of England and the Duke of Edinburgh mark their Diamond Anniversary !!!

8-)

Geneva 11:07 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 11:01 GMT November 19, 2007

Yes, it is still trading but every day you can buy less and less with them, thats why he is right for the moment!!!.
I wonder untill when the US leaders will let it go.....But for the moment the US look pretty bad from outside!

Gen dk 11:03 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 11:03 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
ref previous post

Well i do not know about the Iran president , but my pc screens are still quoting prices in CAD< AUD< NZD< YEN etc...

Versus US$

madrid mm 11:01 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Geneva,

Well i do not know about the Iran president , but my pc screens are still quoting prices in CAD< AUD< NZD< YEN etc...
8-)

He might be as right as
-Paulson and strong US$ policy
-BOJ watching closely fx moves
-Trichet "vigilence"
-Gisele wishes to be paid in Euro
-David Copperfield "surprised 2 M Dollars in cash
-etc....

Talking of "value", and this is NOT directed at you Geneva, I like the definition from Oscar Wilde -
" A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing" .

8-)

NY Rob 10:59 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
short gbpusd again 2.0505, stop above today's high

Geneva 10:46 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Iran President in Opec meeting called the US dollar- a piece of paper without a value !!!, Frankly he is right.

Gen dk 10:15 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

singapore td 09:57 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
re. eurjpy, keep short position as well, it might be delayed last week but under 160 will come in big bang soon

singapore td 09:53 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
agree with gecko, to make money you got to buy usd on dips, that's where mid term money is going, i am optimistic to say that usd has bottomed, to make the most of it though play the weakest link and that is short gbpusd IMO

Hong Kong Qindex 09:42 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is now working on the barrier of 2.0425 // 2.0502.

Syd .. 09:34 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex
thank you

Hong Kong Qindex 09:34 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD: The market is vibrating around 0.8931 with an expected magnitude of 0.8847 - 0.9014. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below weekly cycle pivot center at 0.8764 - 0.8846.

Syd .. 09:30 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
German Train Drivers' Union Says 15% Wage Rise Acceptable

madrid mm 09:11 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- China central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said his country supports a strong dollar and won't raise interest rates next week.

``We hope to see a strong dollar, we support a strong dollar,'' Zhou told reporters in Cape Town today, where he's attending a meeting of world central bankers including U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. When asked about the timing of the next rate increase, Zhou said: ``I don't want to say for the longer term but not next week.''

Jerusalem ML 09:11 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Hi

Tip of day-

buy GPb/usd- target 2.0550

Good luck
M

Syd .. 09:02 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex thanks for that

Hong Kong Qindex 09:01 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 08:59 GMT - AUD/USD : Give me an hour. I havn't updated this pair yet.

Syd .. 08:59 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:57 could you give your view on aud for today please manythanks

Hong Kong Qindex 08:57 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is vibrating around 2.0507 with an expected magnitude of 2.0448 - 2.0566 for the time being. The upside target is 119 pips above 2.0566 and the downside target is 119 pips below 2.0448.

London NYAM 08:40 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Long gbpusd at 2.0467 limit second long at 2.0415. s/l 2.0349

St. Annaland Bob 08:34 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Paris ib 08:28 GMT November 19, 2007

may GWB senior will become your stepfather, AMEN!

madrid mm 08:17 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
New Wall Street Economics -
whether you lose or win, bonuses are plenty 8-)

St. Annaland Bob 08:16 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
good morning ... 14550 looks like a given ... happy trades

madrid mm 08:15 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Wall Street Plans $38 Billion of Bonuses as Shareholders Lose

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Shareholders in the securities industry are having their worst year since 2002, losing $74 billion of their equity. That won't prevent Wall Street from paying record bonuses, totaling almost $38 billion.


I wonder how much is GS's share .... My guess -
37.999.999.998 US$

Gen dk 08:07 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Morristown GG 08:04 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Van Gecko, sp? I happened to be up that night Aug 16th and rode the Aud/yen down about 1200 pips, reinvesting all the way down. I was wondering how much of those stops that triggered on the way down were set by the long term investors. If most of the stops were cleared out in Aud, Gpb / yen etc, did those high leverage hedge fund managers buy back in a the lows? It's interesting. I'm about to sign off, but will check tomorrow for any more thoughts you have. I appreciate your insight. - G

van Gecko 07:55 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 07:27.. a 3000 pip dive by GBP/JPY from historic highs should not be taken lightly as your run of the mill correction.. imo most long term trend following money may had got out when the going was good while the late comers seeing all those money left behind rush in here near the end.. It is not very often that we have Equities, Gold, & GBP falling together from historic highs..

climbing 金山..
the Gold mountain @ November 19


Morristown GG 07:51 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
I'm not sure exactly what the numbers are, but it is said that the price of oil has not really gone up at all - when priced in Euro or yen. Its just that the dollar has fallen. But I certainly see what you are saying about the oil supply being cut off from China and Japan. Swiss Frank is maybe a better trade, but it has already risen a lot relative to dollar. Guess it has a lot more to go.

Alaska Moon 07:46 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Victoria Island FM. 07:43 GMT November 19, 2007
=======
Please read the forum's rules...You are breaking the rules here...

HK [email protected] 07:43 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Morristown GG 07:39 GMT November 19, 2007

A nation which imports 100% of it's energy consumption may encounter bigger economical problems.

Victoria Island FM. 07:43 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Frustrated with your trading results? then add [email protected] to your yahoo messenger list.


Try my managed account Program that consistently made an average 40% monthly.

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RSA Sandton 07:42 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:37 GMT I thought u might say that 8-)

Morristown GG 07:39 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
YF, Interesting comment. I don't understand why Yen would fall in the event of middle east war. I guess you are saying that any major world turmoil would favor the dollar at least for short term. Is that it? It seems to me that oil hations would punish US by selling dollars and buying yen, or insisting on yen for oil.

madrid mm 07:37 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
RSA Sandton 07:30 GMT November 19, 2007

Maybe, just maybe, this is why he was made FinMin !!!

8-)

Syd .. 07:31 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
PBOC Zhou: Satisfied With Current Level Of Interest Rates

Morristown GG 07:31 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
The other thing I've noticed is on the opens, the Eastern Europeans, Russians, and London, often presses in the direction opposite to where they plan to trade, just to run some stops before making their moves. I think of the concept of the "Forward Press" in a golf swing.

RSA Sandton 07:30 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:47 GMT November 19, 2007

* S.Africa FinMin Manuel - Need for strong USD raised at G20 - Reuters.

Why they quote this toothless fairy I do not know. He can not distinguish the Chinese economic model from the Zimbabwean. He turns a blind eye to massive Govt corruption, but by G*d you better be honest with your tax return. LOL

Hk [email protected] 07:27 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   

It is not very safe to hold Yen for too long (and so with some other currencies which could be affected by any military operation in the middle east).

That stuff may explode sooner than expected. So CHF will do upon any event of that kind.

Russia Readies Uranium to Iran
Saturday, November 17, 2007 - FreeMarketNews.com

http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=51552

Russia on Friday gave the clearest indication yet that it was ready to send uranium to fuel Iran's first atomic power station, upping stakes in a diplomatic crisis surrounding Tehran's nuclear program. Russia's state-run nuclear fuel producer said inspectors from the United Nations' nuclear watchdog would later this month start sealing nuclear fuel bound for the Bushehr plant, a major step to shipping the fuel to the Bushehr plant in Iran. In a report on Iran issued on Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said it had "made arrangements to verify and seal the fresh fuel foreseen (for Bushehr) on Nov. 26, before shipment of the fuel from Russia to Iran".-YNet News



Victoria Island FM. 07:27 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
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Morristown GG 07:27 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Van Geko, Thanks for comments on Carry. August lows are roughly 1000 pips lower. I feel the same way. I'm watching them and feel that long term bulls are slowly liquidating on rallies. Its like they are buoyant - always pressured to go up simply based on interest rate benefit, but when they fall, its fast, like a sudden larger liquidation - but not so much that they further lower their portfolio, then they wait for the buoyancy to have its effect again only to liquidate a bit more.
Do you see that pattern in the charts? Also maybe they are setting their stops a bit higher in case they fall off unexpectedly

van Gecko 07:08 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Near-term Carry Trades heading towards last week's lows..
Short-term Carry Trades heading towards their August lows..
Mid-term Dollar Index heading towards 88..




madrid mm 06:58 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
fwiw and FX related somehow -

" Is the world headed for a food crisis? India, Mexico and Yemen have seen food riots this year. Argentines boycotted tomatoes during the country's recent presidential elections when the vegetable became more expensive than meat; and in Italy, shoppers organized a one-day boycott of pasta to protest rising prices. In late October, the Russian government, hoping to ease tensions ahead of parliamentary elections early next year, announced a price freeze for milk, bread and other foods through the end of January." time.com!

madrid mm 06:47 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Have a gr8 day !

madrid mm 06:47 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
* G20 communique - Down-side risks to near-term global economic outlook on

recent financial turmoil, slowdown to growth likely modest but duration not clear, rising energy-food prices to continue to add to price pressures - RTRS.

* S.Africa FinMin Manuel - Need for strong USD raised at G20 - Reuters.

* PBOC Zhou - Eyeing greater yuan flexibility, current band OK for now - RTRS.

* US TsySec Paulson - US economy to weather housing slump, decline not over, financial markets to be volatile for some time - DowJones, Reuters.

* BoC Gov Dodge - Canada will adjust monetary policy to reflect growing risk of global economic slowdown, reiterates CAD has borne brunt of USD weakness- Globe and Mail.

* ECB Pres Trichet - Sharp-abrupt currency movements not welcome, notes and appreciates comments from US officials on strong USD - SABC TV.

* France FinMin Lagarde - G20 agreed on concerted approach to FX - DowJones.

* ADB Kuroda - Ongoing rise in Asia FX would hurt growth - dowJones.

* Fed and markets on collision course over interest rates - Financial Times.

* Fed Stern - Reforms, higher interest rates could impose unwelcome costs, adjustments in US housing market still has way to go.

* US NABE - Economy to slow in Q4, steady recovery in "08, no further Fed interest rate cuts - DowJones.

* UK Nov Rightmove house prices -0.7%m/m, +7.9%y/y, prices to flat-line in "08.

* UK headed for worst growth in 15 years - Sunday Times.

* UK PM Brown approval rating down, net approval down to -10% from +30% in Oct.

* Italy"s Berlusconi announces creation of new Freedom People party - DowJones.

* Australia Oct merchandise imports A$17.4 bln, Sep A$15.55 bln.

* China to hasten launch of direct overseas securities investment - Fin"l News.

* Saudis, UAE may revalue but won"t drop USD peg - Bloomberg, Reuters, DowJones.

* OPEC communique - Commits to supplying sufficient and reliable oil supplies, to study USD weakness-currency basket - AFP, DowJones.

[USD/JPY] and JPY crosses see-sawed in Asia, trading up early in line with WallStreet gains Friday and on the early Nikkei rally. All retreated later withstocks coming off on the back of comments from Minny Fed president Stern out ofSingapore. He said that housing adjustments still had a ways to go. Thoughsimilar sentiments were expressed by US TsySec Paulson over the weekend fromCape Town, the market chose to focus on the Stern talk, perhaps as it contrastedwith more hawkish comments from St Louis Fed Poole and Gov Kroszner Friday.

USD/JPY rallied to 111.08 before retreating to 110.50. Orders look to bracketUSD/JPY going forward with Japanese exporters noted above 111.00, taking outcontracts out to as far out as April-May with a view of locking in 110.00.Importers have good bids below 110.00 on the 109-handle. Crosses covered a widerrange with the market thin and nervous. US funds and Japanese players were earlybuyers. [EUR/JPY] traded up to 163.08 before collapsing to 161.99. Similar moveswere seen in [AUD/JPY], [NZD/JPY] and [GBP/JPY] which traded between 98.77-99.88, 83.71-84.61 and 226.80-228.30.

[EUR/USD] opened in Asia at 1.4665 after making solid gains during in the USFriday on broad USD weakness following soft US data and EUR/JPY buying due to abuoyant Wall Street. EUR/JPY again set the tone today, trading up early andplunging later. EUR/USD was dragged up to 1.4688 before settling back to 1.4655.

[GBP/USD] opened in Asia at 2.0540 after recovering from 2.0350 in the US Fridayon a broadly weaker USD on soft US data and rally in some of the GBP crosses. Itmoved up further to 2.0566 early in Asia on demand out of Tokyo and the strongstart to Asian equities. The rally faltered as stocks turned down. GBP/JPY ledGBP/USD down to 2.0515. Weak Rightmove house price data had little effect.

[USD/CHF] maintained an offered tone in Asia, consolidating recent lossesbetween 1.1162-80. [EUR/CHF] did little in a 1.6373-1.6400 range.

[USD/CAD] charged higher early on the back of comments from BoC Governor Dodgetipping easier monetary policy down the road. Racing up to 0.9782 early, itretreated later to as low as 0.9708. AUD/CAD buys from US funds helped USD/CADhigher early.


[The Nikkei] rallied early to 15,302.76 on the positive Wall Street closeFriday. It fell later on comments from Minny Fed Stern tipping more adjustmentsfrom US subprime woes. It is currently indicated at 15,067.89 going into theclose, down 86.72 points or 0.57% on the day. [TOPIX] is indicated at 1458.68,down 12.99 or 0.88% on the day. Declines were noted on other Asian bourses.[JGBs] and [Euroyen] futures did little today. The yield on the benchmark 10-year JGBs remained mostly unchanged from the 1.465% close Friday.

Nairobi SK 06:40 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris
How soon do you see it print 229?

madrid mm 06:37 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Hello Cyber FX Jedi from planet earth and beyond

8-)

It is monday

“I always give 100% at work:
13% Monday
22% Tuesday
26% Wednesday
35% Thursday
4% Friday” - unknown

CT Cris 06:36 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY is heading twd 229.00
(heading means the price may go direct to 229.00 or via another point but not far from your entry such as 226.60)

madrid mm 06:31 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR 19:29 GMT November 18, 2007

I have to say PAR, you make some gr8 comments !! "Comical Ali ", where did you get this one from ? LOL

I have heard a rumour that Paulson , Gisele the top model "only in EURO", Comical Ali, David Copperfield, KAMPO have decided to create an hedge fund...Can anyone confirm please lol

CT Cris 06:31 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY is around 227.00 now and heading twd 229.00

Morristown GG 06:24 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
I was also expecting that there might be orders for redemptions from Hedge funds on the 15th -as reported in the news, and liquidations might really start this week, as they hope hope to get as much as they can before drops happen in equities, or high yeilders.
Finally, not sure what effect the new bank accounting rules will mean, and when it will begin to be seen. Continuing drop in Financial stocks as more losses and write offs are reported
Tier 3 investments disclosed etc.

Morristown GG 06:16 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Toronto, I was impressed with the way you helped out that new trader last week telling him to buy Gbp/yen at 225 or so. I was also trading it last week, but couldn't get the timing and absorb the volitile ranges. Please comment on my earlier post. I agree that the gbp is headed down soon.

Morristown GG 06:14 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Good evening / morning to all from NJ, USA
Just logged in after a busy weekend. I'm short AUD/Yen and USD / Yen. Lots of dollar neg news out there, but technicals show a reversal coming soon. Seems many of you are looking for stronger dollar soon - sudden drop in Euro etc. What are you thoughts on the crosses - the yen. If the oil producers and other dollar rich central banks, decide to continue diversifying, which do you think they will move towards? Gbp has bad news all over the place, The only other two are Euro and Yen. Euro is at its highs, so it seems to me Yen will be the choice. Japanese should have already hedged this reality, and started adjusting to the reality of a higher yen.
I'm only into this for maybe 7 months, but am down about $12,000 because I cannot trade in and out of ranges all day by the minute or hour. I really should be a long term trend trader, and so I'm looking to ride the yen up, dollar down. Your advise would be appreciated. I want to recover that money next couple weeks if possible.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:43 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading within the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.9659 - 0.9691.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:05 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : It is now trapped in the range of 110.50 - 110.84.

new brighton gvm 03:52 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex - wow that was quick ;-) ... beat me to it !

new brighton gvm 03:51 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex - your thoughts on $/¥ appreciated TIA

Hong Kong Qindex 03:50 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY
: The market is going to tackle the barrier at 109.14 // 110.02. Speulative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 110.50.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:27 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading range is 2.0496 - 2.0566.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:18 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The weekly cycle charts indicates that the market is going to vibrate around 1.1170 with an expected magnitude at 1.1109 - 1.1230 for the time being. The projected supporting barrier at 1.1087 // 1.1118 is going to be tackled. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 1.1192 // 1.1214.

singapore td 01:56 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
LA BFL 00:51 GMT November 19, 2007

i would take sell-rallies strategy for gbpusd, same with gbpjpy

Syd .. 01:48 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Lloyd's braced for wave of credit crunch claims
Lloyd's of London, the world's largest insurance market, is bracing itself for hundreds of claims from company directors as fears mount that the credit crisis will unleash a wave of lawsuits.
LINK

LA BFL 00:51 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
hi . could someone provide a good insight for gbp/usd and gbp/jpy please?

Thanks

Syd .. 00:38 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Pecs Andras 00:25 see such mixed views on where the pound is going staying clear of it for now , UK have a few problems to resolve so it should be lower and once rates come off it will

Philadelphia Caba 00:28 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Pecs Andras 00:25 GMT
maybe, but ecb will be next..(?)

Pecs Andras 00:25 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 00:02 GMT November 19, 2007
Is it not yet another reason for BOE to cut soon?

Syd .. 00:02 GMT November 19, 2007 Reply   
Rightmove: UK House Price Growth At 17-Mo Low
UK Nov House Price Index -0.7% On Mo, +7.9% On Yr
UK House Prices To "Flat-Line" In 2008

 




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