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Forex Forum Archive for 12/06/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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USA BAY 23:35 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
As for gbp/usd we can see imho a rapid move to 1.9550/1.9850.

USA BAY 23:21 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM,

I think Fm, gbp seems to be falling out of favour, we may see gbp/yen moving to 220 and if that breaks 205 is very probable.

Syd .. 23:18 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Visiting shareholders in the U.S. Thursday, Rio Tinto PLC (RTP) Chief Executive Tom Albanese stepped up his rhetoric against BHP Billiton's (BHP) massive unsolicited takeover bid, labeling it "dead in the water."

Syd .. 23:15 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:06 Aussie has been difficult of late, because it just wont roll ove and die , just cant see the RBA raising rates as I have said not with the problems and they know it just talking tough , Aud goes into reverse quite fast

Mtl JP 23:14 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 18:32 / re 1-800-995-HOPE: assuming one's phone line has not been disconnected

USA BAY 23:06 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

Fyi, Asraf Laidi calls a downturn in Aud/Usd and sees a big resistance at 8780/88, based on the head and shoulder pattern on the ozi chart.

Lahore FM 23:02 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
LA BFL 22:58 GMT December 6, 2007
gbpusd sideways to higher.gbpjpy might be decided post Japanese gdp figures and reaction.

out for now.

Syd .. 23:00 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: IMF Plan Could Push Gold Down To $700 - Analyst
IMF's new chief, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, announces plan to sell 400 tons of gold, to use proceeds for investment in IMF income-producing assets. IMF gold holdings total 3,217 tons, third largest in world behind U.S., Germany. Gold sales need approval of U.S. Congress, other countries' parliaments. If approved, IMF gold sale to exert downward pressure on gold prices, likely down to $700/oz, says Investec analyst Darren Heathcote. Go-ahead for sales to open way for new sales beyond suggested 400 tons. Spot gold trading at $800.80, down 50 cents vs NY close

LA BFL 22:58 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
hello fm ...
do you have any view for gbp.usd and gbp.jpy ?

TiA

Syd .. 22:58 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Wealthy foreigners set to quit Britain over tax

Some 3,000 wealthy foreigners will leave Britain as a result of the planned clampdown on their beneficial tax regime, the UK Treasury has admitted.

Under plans announced in October, foreign citizens based in the UK who are exempt from tax on their offshore income, the so-called “non doms”, will face an annual charge of £30,000 (€41,600) once they have lived in Britain for at least seven years. The Treasury also intends to close the loophole under which they can escape capital gains tax.

http://www.ft.com/cms/

Lahore FM 22:49 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
sold gold 800.80.stops later.

Syd .. 22:32 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Australian construction industry activity expanded for a third consecutive month in November, according to an industry survey.

The Australian Industry Group-Housing Industry Association Performance of Construction Index fell 4.2 points to 53.2 in November from October. Any index reading above 50 suggests expansion has taken place.

"Although growth has been maintained, the rate of increase was weaker across most sectors. There are definite signs that continued upward pressure on interest rates, higher construction costs and capacity constraints are weighing on growth." said AIG Associate Director Tony Pensabene.

The house building sector, in particular, experienced more subdued conditions, and with new orders softening, any notable recovery is likely in the foreseeable future," he added.

dc CB 21:49 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Treasury Plan to Freeze Mortgage Rates
Thursday, December 06, 2007 - 02:36 PM

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

Syd .. 21:49 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
The dollar was mostly unchanged against the euro on Thursday, after the Bank of England and the European Central Bank announced their interest rate decisions, shooting the buck down from an overnight rise.
The split decision by Europe's top two central banks is a prescription for roller-coaster trading for the world's major currencies over the coming weeks and months, according to analysts.

"We're not advising clients to buy euros above $1.46. Steep declines in the dollar such as the 8% fall between August and November in the dollar index (which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies) are unlikely," said Paul Barrett, head of currency sales and trading at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

The announcements were also evidence that even if the U.S.'s credit crunch has yet to hit all of Europe, its effects are branching out, stretching to those countries with closer ties to U.S. financial institutions first.

Syd .. 21:28 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Australian government bonds to open weaker after Treasurys slide overnight on recovery in mood on Wall Street. Improved sentiment follows Bush administration's plan to freeze mortgage rates. Strategists say approach of U.S. payrolls tonight will likely see ranges for bond prices develop in Asia. Market expecting around 80,000 new jobs in the U.S., but anecdotal labor market reports suggest there's upside risk to the report.

Syd .. 21:21 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
In the bleak midwinter

European interest rates

In the bleak midwinter
Both central banks faced a dilemma. On the one hand, the credit crunch resulting from the worldwide financial turmoil of the past few months will slow growth next year. New forecasts on Thursday from the OECD suggested that growth in Britain would slow from 3.1% in 2007 to 2.0% in 2008; in the euro area from 2.6% to 1.9%
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10259027&top_story=1
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10259027&top_story=1

Syd .. 21:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
NabCapital's risk index now at 1-month high

Syd .. 21:03 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
OECD warns of UK housing market downturn
The UK economy is more vulnerable than other countries to the turmoil in financial markets and its housing market is also at greater risk of a downturn, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Thursday.

In its twice-yearly Economic Outlook, published the day the Bank of England cut its main interest rate for the first time in two years, the Paris-based think-tank said the Bank could “afford” a series of rate cuts to offset an economic slowdown.

Syd .. 21:01 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Homeowners and savers could lose out
Consumers could be hit by a double blow following Thursday’s interest rate cut, as mortgage lenders may fail to pass the full benefit on to borrowers, while many saving rates will fall.

Mortgage brokers believe lenders could use the rate cut as an opportunity to boost their profit margins amid the continued tight credit conditions.
ft.com

Syd .. 20:36 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Don't hold your breath waiting for President Bush's plan to temporarily have states issue tax-exempt bonds to help refinance underwater home loans. "Who wants to buy more bonds backed by subprime loans?" asks J.B. Hanauer & Co. muni analyst Dick Larkin. Many state housing agencies already have low-income mortgage programs available, he says, but those impose strict limits on income and on the nature of the loan. They'd probably have to be weakened considerably if bonds are sold to bail out subprime loans. Another factor, says Larkin, is that states are unlikely to consider backing bailout bonds unless the federal government also is willing to do so - if then

Syd .. 20:29 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 20:24 GMT not really , alway appreciate any info again thanks

Hong Kong Ahe 20:24 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 20:17 GMT - Hi Syd, you are the expert in Aussie more than I. LOL. This month AUDUSD is in correction mode. I mean not as strong as last month. Dec18,2007 Tue it may fight back, I think it may be due to Xmas coming soon. Balancing and closing book etc.. GLGT. With all best wishes.

Syd .. 20:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 20:05 could you share your view on aud/usd if possible thanks

USA BAY 20:15 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Thanks Ahe, "Aud more vulnerable that Nzd" is already a great tip. Thanks again. Gt/Gl

PAR 20:14 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Current market more influenced by world central bank speakers than by economic data and that makes the market so unpredictable . Central bankers behave like they are the masters of the universe.

Syd .. 20:12 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
The Mortgage Lender has confirmed it has gone into administration as a direct result of the liquidity crisis.http://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/cgi-bin/item.cgi?id=155434&d=403&h=401&f=402

Hong Kong Ahe 20:05 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:59 GMT - Hi Bay, I dont trade this pair. But AUD is more vulerable than NZD. Look like some boys use NZD as pivot to support the other pairs of high yielders while they were weak, e.g GBP. in their account. Sorry my comment not worth 1 cents. GLGT.

USA BAY 19:59 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Sorry to trouble you again sifu, can you share your view on aud/nzd pls. Tia

PAR 19:57 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke more a politician than an independent central banker .

CT Cris 19:56 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
lets call it the "the spicy pips"

USA BAY 19:55 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris,

Hot Trades, Good for you Cris. Gt/GL

CT Cris 19:50 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
the previous were samples of hot and fast live trading.

Mtl JP 19:49 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke calls mortgage foreclosure plan 'welcome step'

still no word who is going to sholder the losses though

dc CB 19:46 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Yes Toto it was just a bad dream; we're back in Kansas again.

SnP closing above 1500, nicely toasted NFP number tomorrow....Abby J's, 1600 here we come.

Hong Kong Ahe 19:45 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:37 - Hi Bay, for NZDJPY Stop 87.20. Trap maybe around 86.8/87.00 if I were those alligators. GLGT.

CT Cris 19:43 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 19:19 GMT December 6, 2007
lets take another 10 pips by selling usd.cad now
======
sold @ 1.0111 exited 1.0100

USA BAY 19:37 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe,

Sorry, the nzd/jpy pair pls. Thanks

Gen dk 19:36 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Ahe 19:35 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:31 - Hi Bay, which pair? As some spec going to place trap holes there. ;o)

USA BAY 19:31 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong AHE,

Hi Sifu, So you are suggesting its a sell here and could you suggest a stoploss and tp. Thanks a lot. Gt/GL

Syd .. 19:28 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe :-))))) thanks again

Hong Kong Ahe 19:27 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 19:23 GMT - Hi Syd, from this hour onward it is close to the turning point especially NZDJPY. Only a bit of rebounce during Asian lunch time. GLGT.

Syd .. 19:23 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 19:21 many thanks for that , and does that apply to the commod ccys also again thankyou

Hong Kong Ahe 19:21 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 19:03 GMT - Hi Syd, still stand. Sell USDJPY close to 111.50/111.70 Anything around 107-112, BOJ still kept quietly to allow/accept the market moving in this range. GLGT.

CT Cris 19:19 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
lets take another 10 pips by selling usd.cad now

Geneva 19:14 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
a End of the year big dollar reversal is under way.
Those who paid high euro could call 1-800-euro-help!
GL

CT Cris 19:11 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 18:43 GMT December 6, 2007
we may take 10 pips if we buy eur/jpy now
==exited at 91 + 1pip

CT Cris 19:09 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 18:53 GMT December 6, 2007
buy another at 162.76

==exited at 162.88

dc CB 19:04 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
"One big bank that saw the trouble coming, Goldman Sachs, began reducing its inventory of mortgages and mortgage securities late last year. Even so, Goldman went on to package and sell more than $6 billion of new securities backed by subprime mortgages during the first nine months of this year."


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/06/business/06hedge.html?

Syd .. 19:03 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe Hi, you posted regarding the Yen strength today 7th ? does this still stand many thanks

CT Cris 18:53 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
buy another at 162.76

CT Cris 18:43 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
we may take 10 pips if we buy eur/jpy now

Mtl JP 18:38 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CB, that is exactly like the attitude of the originator mortgage purveying commissioned sales(wo)men, lol

dc CB 18:35 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:30 GMT December 6, 2007
dc CB 17:43 / so just WHO

don't want to go there. just have to run out the clock, then it's the next administration's problem.

madrid mm 18:34 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
thx

CT Cris 18:34 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
we may take another 10 pips ..be ready

dc CB 18:32 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bush on now. CSpan.org on the net.

"operators 24hrs a day. 1-800-HOPE

madrid mm 18:31 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:48 GMT December 6, 2007

I am one of them ! 8-(0

Is this right, President Bush is going to talk in about 10 minuts on Subprime ?

Mtl JP 18:30 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 17:43 / so just WHO will be ordered to consume and shoulder the losses if not banks ?

CT Cris 18:05 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:42 GMT December 6, 2007
buy eur/usd now for 10 pips profit.

====
exited with 10 pips.

PAR 17:48 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Stops building in Eur above 1.4650 and 1.4700 .

dc CB 17:43 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:15 GMT December 6, 2007

Any more of this is what they want to stop. Remember, Paulson ran Goldman until last fall.

"It emerged yesterday that senior bankers at many of Wall Street's leading firms have been questioned under subpoenas issued by New York's attorney general, Andrew Cuomo. A source at one bank said: "They went out to all the big Wall Street shops - at least all the ones that have a mortgage desk, which is pretty much all of them.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/dec/06/creditcrunch.subprimecrisis?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront

CT Cris 17:42 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
buy eur/usd now for 10 pips profit.

London NYAM 17:40 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bay// I appreciate the view. I took a look at the charts again. You could very well be right ive raised my stop to .7188 and may reverse if we drop below that. I suppose since i can see GBPUSD to 2.04 area its not impossible to imagine a pull back on a larger scale. I probably should pay more attention to EURUSD but its such a blocky pair. glgt

PAR 17:39 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Since june Belgium has a " care taking government" in which the parties which lost the elections try to govern without taking decisions . Basically paying politicians money for doing nothing .

USA BAY 17:34 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
London Nyam,

hi nyam,

IMHO eurgbp most probably will return down around 0.7100/0.7050 handle before another move above 0.7300. What do you think. TIA

madrid mm 17:25 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 17:07 GMT December 6, 2007
I don t know if i replaced him, but i am only doing my little contribution
8-)

Mtl JP 17:15 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
likely the top comedy punch line for 2007 and 2008, possibly 2009:

Administration, Industry to Freeze Rates - AP

The Bush administration has come up with a plan to help strapped homeowners facing a daunting jump in their monthly mortgage payments.

and the punch line, ta-daah-m:

The financial services industry applauded the administration for negotiating a plan that will allow free-market forces to operate.

London 17:08 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
The Bank of England expects to have to deal next year with the combination of a slowing economy plus rising inflation. Does this signal a return to the “stagflation” that haunted central bankers in the 1970s? FT



madrid mm 17:08 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:05 GMT December 6, 2007

please define "normal" LOL

jkt-aye 17:07 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Madrid MM ... and now you just replace our librarianman, Capetown ;)

PAR 17:05 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Greece, Italy, Spain,Belgium , Portugal, Ireland etc. probably wanted higher Euro interest rates since inflation in those countries is out of control. On top of that Belgium is without a normal government for more than six months and on the brink of separation.

London HST 16:56 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Any enws out or late London book squaring?

madrid mm 16:53 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, you remind me the following saying -

" You can t stop the waves, but you can learn to surf."
Jon Kabat -Zinn, meditation expert

8-)

PAR
Such is life, a real cycle. What goe up somestimes comes down and goes up , and goes down, and goes up , and goes down

London NYAM 16:52 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
mm//lol. Nice to get awarded a nick-name! Just hope i dont get caught up in the ripples before the sunamis strike like i did with CAD two days ago. ;)

madrid mm 16:48 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM,

You are now officialy know as NYAM Waveman 8-)

PAR 16:48 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
A lot of people made money on the Us mortgage scams. The builders, the real estate broker, the mortgage broker, the banks ,insurance companies, wall street investment banks, the Us government etc. Thats why Paulson want to restart that market asap.

Stockholm za 16:22 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   

Re... Tech...
EUR/USD 1d/50p tracker gives hit parameters as 1,5024 – 1,4110 at the moment.
5024 is not a realistic target for positions, and will need to probe much beeper to put the 1,53 into focus. Interest in the 1,445x & 1,43 spikes for range definition and expansion whiles under the 1,4713
The 1m 25 delta risk reversal is 0.68 EUR puts. Vs last week 0.55 put.
Happy trading………..

London NYAM 16:11 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
is//Sold E/G at .7236 and bought it back at .7193 then went long at .7186 so it went well so far.
aye//Im getting mixed signals but my suspician is that both the Equities and the Dollar yen take a breather by late trading and possibly through asia. The underlying direction is up as ive said I believe we will see 113.xx or above. It may be though that, short term, we have to correct and 111.50 will be really tough to break today even with a rally. Seems like 5waves could be completed for wave A (from the low at 107)so Im sitting on the side for a decent buy level in, I hope a wave B.

jkt-aye 16:05 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
good day NYAM,
do you see usjy will going south from this level ?
i got my magnetic level on H1 111.95 and 110.30.
tia for your insight. gt

isr is 16:05 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, i just wanted to know how did u know last night that selling GBPEUR was a good trade to put on???In any event, thanks for sharing with us!!!

London 16:04 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
BOC's Dodge: Global Market Problems Have Worsened Since Oct

London NYAM 15:35 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
I tell a lie bought back the GBPUSD long on that drop to 2.0245 stop 2.0189

London NYAM 15:33 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
NYC//You know the feeling when your eyes start to blur...
Although my final trade tonight was a short S&P at 1486.50 stop at 1495 targeting 1463.
Also i am leaving the nets out for a GBPUSD rally to short and now putting on some longs on usdjpy in the low 110.xx

HK REVDAX 15:31 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Need some help in the Help Forum. My Meta trader is effing me up again. Tks

NYC 15:27 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, you have the hot hand, keep it up.

FW CS 15:26 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Looks like 78X area is the reload point for gold bulls. Also nice resumption of Yen carry trades. In currency world Yen bearish positions will win if either 1) $ continues strengthening 2) Carry trades pick up again. Looks like today we have some Yen carry people back. $/Yen nice head and shoulders bottom in the making with market basically right at neckline having just broken a trendline resist Right at a head shoulders neckline now after breaking down trend line around 110.95 $/JPY could get interesting real quick.

London NYAM 15:24 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Closed long USDJPY at 111.18 from 110.50 closed GBPUSD at 2.0272 just have Long EURGBP from .7186.
Have fun everything looking a little volatile for me.
mm// I guess i had a couple of waves but there looks like storm clouds and im too tired to ride.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:12 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Anything below 0.7064 is not good. The market is working on 0.7198 // 0.7233. A barrier is located at 0.7214 - 0.7217.

Gen dk 15:03 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 15:01 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 14:32 GMT December 6, 2007

Shhhhhhhhhhh

Maybe it is the case of -

The three wise monkeys - "see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil".

Sometimes there is a fourth monkey depicted with the three others that symbolizes the principle of "do no evil".

8-)

Philadelphia Caba 14:59 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, is your eur/gbp extreme upside targets at 7280 and 7345 (with downside critical 7017) still valid? tia!

Plovdiv Gotin 14:53 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
German Fin Min wants G7 talks on disorderly forex-Bloomberg

Como Perrie 14:51 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
do not know about this euro so short term today...not in the intraday mood today...so will go wine tasting later so to detach a bit...

in general am already reduced so to not mind what next..tomorrow NFPs if as ADPs bet the buck might get into strenght again...



gtrades

Como Perrie 14:47 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Ivey Purch Managers Canada next

PAR 14:45 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Imho Trichet seems to be hinting at a january interest rate hike without mentioning the word " vigilant" which brougth him into trouble this summer .

USA Zeus 14:36 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 14:30 GMT December 6, 2007

These are coin collectors for memorabilia before it reverts to the deutschmark?

melbourne DC 14:33 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
01:27 *DJ Trichet: "Some" Voices Favored A Rate Hike

PAR 14:32 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
If Trichet is so concerned about rising prices and second round inflationary effects why does he keeps pumping € billions into the european financial sytem fuelling exponential money supply growth ?

slv sam 14:30 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
every body buying the euro like there is no tomorrow!!GT

Hong Kong Qindex 14:30 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Within the range of 2.0151 - 2.0311, projected barriers are expected at 2.0162 - 2.0217 - 2.0257.

USA Zeus 14:28 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Like they always say- "The trend is your friend."

Happy Day!

London NYAM 14:26 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Chris. Thanks stop around 2.0219 if it goes pair shaped.

The Netherlands Purk 14:26 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Right: the lone ranger looking for the following patterns in the pattern 3. 1. 14604 (present), 2. 14640 3. 14670.

If 1 in 3 is in place , than we will see 14569. If not we go to 14640.
Right?

HK Kevin 14:25 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Short E/J 162.00 order just filled. Move s/l of remaining Cable long to 2.0241

Como Perrie 14:25 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Guess the euro belgium effect to fill into markets later on again.

CT Cris 14:20 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:10 GMT December 6, 2007
Bought cable back at 2.0269

=====buy level 2.0315..take care.

melbourne DC 14:16 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
01:14 *DJ EU Almunia: Second-Round Inflation Effects May Soon Be Seen

London NYAM 14:10 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bought cable back at 2.0269

Hong Kong Qindex 14:09 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to look for the support at 2.0151 when it fails to overcome the projected resistant point at 2.0311.

Gen dk 14:08 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 13:52 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
closed gbpjpy long at 224.95 from 224.58 might buy again later.

slv sam 13:51 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
imo Euro medium term correction already done and now up till 1.54xx!GT


HK Kevin 13:50 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CLosed 1/3 long Cabel from 2.0222 at 2.0306

London NYAM 13:48 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Sounded like the usual Franco-Germanic fears of inflation has indeed helped the eur and gbp. T/pd from the long at 2.0187 at 2.0295. Now im in fisherman mode for the other team.

Geneva 13:47 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Stupid Trichet....will kill europe

Como Perrie 13:43 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Similar to the BOEs statment Trichet not says anymore eurozone has that med-term economic outlook favourable

Como Perrie 13:38 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Trichet begins press conference

Hong Kong Qindex 13:28 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Basically the market is trying to consolidate between 2.0151 - 2.0311 for the time being.

Como Perrie 13:27 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
mercì



ps.. Trichet not hawkish surely, maybe dowish imo

London NYAM 13:27 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
I think we should look at Trichets comments as an opportunity for the shorts to jump ship for now. Can't see Trichet suddenly dropping the hawkish tone. The second weapon of a nervous banker is to just talk tough and not move, preventing inflationary expectations while maintaining a desire for relatively cheap money. But of course i might be wrong.

London NYAM 13:23 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:14 //Thanks well spotted. I had also the 1.38 extension 2.035 low to 2.840 swing high at 2.0158. Close but couldnt reach this time. I suspect however the biggest gains are yet to be had in the other direction. gt to you.

PAR 13:21 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
No , boulevard Malesherbes. In the center of the city .

Como Perrie 13:16 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:16 GMT December 6, 2007

Banlieu??

PAR 13:16 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bomb explosion in Paris . 1 death , five wounded .

HK Kevin 13:14 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:06 GMT, today's close will see I am right or wrong, but a good bet with limited risk. FYI, if we draw a trendline line linking the high 2.0652 of 24 July and 2.1160 of 9 Nov, the parallel line support is right at 2.0168 today.

London NYAM 13:08 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
FWIW a similar case could be made for EURUSD. Potentially a buy to 1.4640 area if the bottom holds here.

London NYAM 13:06 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//I agree. It feels like we should be seeing profit taking now until prices reach a zone where they seem like a good sell. somwhere between 2.04 and 2.05. Still have to see whats happening in the US of course.

dc CB 13:06 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
NFP: Birth/Death Adjustments

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/

a quick read

HK Kevin 13:03 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
It seems a sell the rumour but the fact sotry for Cable today. Risky long small at 2.0222, looking for a correction to near 2.05, stop at 2.0151

Como Perrie 12:56 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Let's see Trichet at 8.30

also canada building permits there

madrid mm 12:53 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
The BoE and the ECb have a different strategy

The BoE is saying, " we cut rate now, so people can still spend", ie Christmas present

The ECB is saying " We will cut rate next time." , ie it will be New year present

8-)

London NYAM 12:50 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
mm// You are too kind my friend.
Strange slow reaction on the EURGBP cross. Guess it was expected so now its down to techs again.

Como Perrie 12:49 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Reducing eurusd shorts here

dc CB 12:48 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hooooooooooooooolllllld!

Como Perrie 12:48 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
ecb unchanged

madrid mm 12:48 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, you are the man and the perfect gentleman
8-)

London NYAM 12:47 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
ECB unchanged.

tokyo ginko 12:46 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
ecb announcement anyone? now 1245 GMT

London NYAM 12:46 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
mm lol.
Im hoping to Christmas bonus coming soon...Wife needs a new purse.

madrid mm 12:44 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:35 GMT December 6, 2007

Are you ready to surf my man NYAM on your waves ? 8-)

I am so confused LOL

Como Perrie 12:43 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
they might yet stay on hold for the time being again for now maybe

madrid mm 12:40 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Let s have fun.

We just need the ECB to raise rate by 50bp 8-)

London NYAM 12:35 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
longed small gbpjpy 224.58

madrid mm 12:27 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
"What's the name of game ? " ABBA

PATIENCE IS very important in FX trading as much as a trading plan.

Como Perrie 12:26 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
While if Dow holds onto up today usdjpy might fly towards 112 imvho..might yet stay overbought into tomorrow, might not...NFP

Como Perrie 12:24 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
in the mid built some hedges ahead of ECB - this is big guess 1/4 or nothing

St. Annaland Bob 12:10 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
USD bears has just arranged nightmare to weak hands while their way to glory is securely paved from here.

shanghai bc 12:09 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bangalore Forexveda 10:11 GMT December 6, 2007

Long time no see..Welcome back Kiran..

Como Perrie 12:04 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Most stops lowered 2.0250/70

London NYAM 12:04 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
stopped out and re-entered at 2.0187 long

Hong Kong Qindex 12:03 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Barriers are located at 2.0139 and 2.0162.


Hong Kong Qindex 11:51 GMT December 6, 2007
GBP/USD : It is going to challenge the barrier at 2.0118 // 2.0209.

St. Annaland Bob 12:03 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
looks like the classic action before USD gets a very serious punch

Como Perrie 12:03 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
1/4 BOE market crzy undecided here

tokyo ginko 12:01 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
close out gbp/usd, will look to sell again above 2.0350 GT all

London NYAM 11:54 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
took a small long GBPUSD at 2.0237 stop 2.0209

Como Perrie 11:53 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
tks Qindex... that's sound to me



Hong Kong Qindex 11:51 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is going to challenge the barrier at 2.0118 // 2.0209.

Jerusalem ML 11:50 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
My belief BOE to cut .25 and address financial turmoil

Pound to 2.00 then higher

good luck

Como Perrie 11:50 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
If half a point do reckon cable to drop somewhere 2.01, else choppy whitin 1/4 most expectation priced

Como Perrie 11:48 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
London School of Economics said overall 3/4 cuts are needed.

Today 1/4 or 1/2 imvho

Como Perrie 11:43 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
currently am just wondering how much BOE is going to cut 1/4 1/2 3/4

who knows It :)

Como Perrie 11:30 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Jerusalem ML 11:28 GMT December 6, 2007

and??

Jerusalem ML 11:28 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
look back at this message from weeks ago...

jerusalem ML 12:53 GMT November 28, 2007
Subject:
Hi all

EUR/USD heading to 1.44 by end of year
Pound 2.02
Loonie 1.03

good luck
p.s. very bearish on Oil (80$)
Gold target 750


Como Perrie 11:27 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
While Dow Jones I do see as overbought, rather lotsa overbought imvho.

London NYAM 11:27 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR//Learn from your Enemies...IV Lenin

http://marxists.architexturez.net/archive/lenin/works/1905/nov/18c.htm

Como Perrie 11:25 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Eur yet suffers from the Belgium effect.

PAR 11:14 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Us government moving to communist style five year planning on the mortgage crisis. Privatise the profits and socialise the losses seems to be the new idea of free markets.

Maribor 11:11 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Gold next station 764...crude on the way to 80, as already said.

London NYAM 11:09 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Caba//Whatever the bank does I believe vs the EUR the pound will fall over the long run. If they don't cut there is a chance thatwe fall through that .7100 support area, then one would have to look for lower points to go long again. In the case of cable there is a chance we do not get a deep wave four and i lose the opportunity to get involved in the last leg down.

Philadelphia Caba 11:03 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
thanks, do you have BoE priced in that trade?

London NYAM 10:53 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
caba// its a moving t/l stop loss from 4hour chart (2-4 t-l) currently at .7108. Im buying all the way down to .7149 stop for half at .7134 stop for the other on a moving t/l stop loss from 4hour chart (2-4 t-l) currently at .7108 and rising a couple of pips per 4 hours.

Stockholm za 10:39 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   

Paris ib 05:12 GMT >> fwiw..
Do not get confuse my friend,
I like USA Zeus because he is always original and stand up for/ defend his trading method. He is not following any one, nor begging for support in his activities.
I have notice lately that you keep ECHOING every one that addresses my post . with your Attack on me and Sweden..
I will advise you to find some one else to punch on , in a more original state.
Happy trades to you………..
GVI Jay.. have me excused…..

Philadelphia Caba 10:36 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:32
Hi, missed that short yesterday...where's your s/l for long?

madrid mm 10:34 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:08 GMT December 6, 2007

Of course not PAR.

They will never run out of money, they will keep printing it 8-(0

it is called " D Copperfield Creative accounting" lol

it reminds me , credit Lyonnais, enron, banesto, n Rock and so on...
8-)

London NYAM 10:32 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Oh yes Caba thanks. Reminds me took out that short from .7236 yesterday EURGBP at .7193 switched to long first at .7186 adding at some points below.

Philadelphia Caba 10:31 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
good morning,
got 2nd eur/gbp long at 7180, s/l manual if BoE won't cut...t/p run for 7300..

GENEVA DS 10:29 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Link between EURJPY and SP500 is now officially finished... no more SP trading in Forex... watch out the chaos now... good luck to all...

London NYAM 10:29 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Taking out my small contra longs GBPUSD already at 2.0293. Im switching into fish-catching mode now as i beleive we are in the wave 4 of this five wave sequence. Sell points are 2.0322/ 2.0359/ 2.0388/ 2.0438x2 and 2.0498 with failure of strategy at 2.0525.
Still long average 110.50 USDJPY but there is still scope for the pair to fall to low 110.xx along which I will add. Similarly strategy is called off on a break of @109.50.
Targeting 2.0050 and 113.20

Hong Kong Qindex 10:19 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bangalore Forexveda 10:11 GMT - Hi, welcome back!

Bangalore Forexveda 10:11 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
I guess it's still too early to bulid mid term dollar longs before NFP. A bad number can take pound back to 2.08 and swiss close to 1.1050 with a higher GBP/CHF I am visiting this forum after so many years and felt good to see my old pals still posting here. Shanghai BC and Dr. Q. BC and Q, I used to post as Kiran from Bangkok in 1998/99 Do you remember? Now settled in mysooru and operating in the name of forexveda

Hong Kong Qindex 10:11 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is basically vibrating around 2.0261 with an expected magnitude of 2.0205 - 2.0317 for the time being. It can easily expand into 2.0149 - 2.0373 and further up to 2.0037 - 2.0486.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:06 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : When the market is trading below the barrier at 161.26 // 161.35, the odds are high that one can see the range 159.11 - 159.66 within the remaining period of this week.

Gen dk 10:05 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd .. 09:59 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
MELBOURNE (AFP)--Thousands of workers were evacuated after an explosion started a fire and cut power in two office towers in Australia's second biggest city Thursday, officials said.
Authorities were investigating what caused the blast.

Syd .. 09:56 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Chances Of UK Rate Cut Seen At 80% - Trad An interest rate cut by the BoE Thursday looks increasingly likely, at least according to the Sonia market, which prices in an 80% chance of a 25 basis point cut, a trader at a European bank says. Short sterling contracts trade higher, with December up 0.02 at 93.61, March '08 up 94.31 up 0.02 at 94.31, and June '08 up 0.02 at 94.78. Official UK interest rates currently stand at 5.75%. The BoE rate announcement is at 1200 GMT.

PAR 09:56 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Very sStrong UK IP and manufacturing data sharply reduces chances of UK rate cut .

Hong Kong Qindex 09:54 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is likely that the market will trade between 1.9857 - 2.0257. It can easily move between 1.9937 - 2.0182.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:50 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : I have a feeling that the market will trade below 224.05 and most likely it will tackle the range 222.32 - 223.13.

Hong Kong Ahe 09:23 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 09:19 GMT , LOLROTF.

Syd .. 09:19 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Cable's trendline support that marked the rally from $1.98 has been corrupted, suggesting a more sustained turn in the rate is at hand, says Royal Bank of Scotland. The MPC not cutting rates later Thursday would be more sterling negative than cutting them, given the potential destabilizing impact, says the bank. So, it looks like cable is damned if the MPC does cut rates, and damned if it doesn't

PAR 09:08 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
How can Japan create a sovereign wealth fund while its debt /gdp the highest in the world exceeds 170 % . They first need to find a way to repay their debt as Kampo seems to be running out of money .

Gen dk 09:05 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mumbai NS 08:55 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Oilman tks unfortunately that's the way it is in euro these days difficult to think beyond immediate targets tks and gud luck mate gl gt

slv sam 08:51 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
IMHO: good chance to make money!
buy eurousd now at 4575 for new high
sell usdchf now at 1.1295 for new low
sell usdjpy now at 110.70 for new low

I am considering closing my usdcad here and rebuy at 9980!GT

St. Annaland Bob 08:45 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
good morning ... some FX core reality ... happy trades!

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

USD/JPY

EUR/JPY

AUD/USD

Brisbane Flip 08:44 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
While Germany and co were getting good data a strong euro is pronounced as evidence of a vote of confidence in the politicians policies and an indiator of europe's economic virility. When the performance sour it's "blame it on the euro cause it's not my fault".

Monaco Oil man 08:40 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 08:17 GMT December 6, 2007

I have 1.4530 as target so..After that, not sure for the day..Though could still see the US$ bounce a little more in the coming weeks towards 1.42..
From yesty:
Sell signal at =1.47367000
Symbol=EURUSD Period=60
First Target at :1.46200000
Second Target : 1.45300000

Syd .. 08:38 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Moody's default rate forecasting model predicts that the global speculative-grade default rate will rise sharply to 4.2% a year from now after finishing this year at 1.2%. By November 2009, the model forecasts the global default rate reaching 4.7%.

"Our baseline forecast incorporates a slowing U.S. economy in 2008 but no recession," adds Emery. "If a recession were to materialize, default rates could increase to near double-digit levels."

Syd .. 08:22 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Germany's finance minister signaled an apparent shift in tolerance earlier this week when he launched an attack on the euro's strength, suggesting that its recent moves had been "disorderly."

"This is important in the ECB's context as it suggests that finance ministers from the biggest euro zone countries are now aligned in voicing concern about exchange rate movements - implying that the (ECB) ought to assign a greater weight to the euro in its assessment," said David Woo, chief currency strategist with Barclays Capital in London.

Early Thursday in Europe, the euro slipped back to $1.4574 from $1.4605 late Wednesday in New York, according to EBS. The decline came as the dollar rallied on expectations that U.S. President George Bush will soon unveil a plan for freezing interest rates on some subprime mortgages to help ease the credit conditions.

Syd .. 08:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
The euro zone's yield premium is unlikely to help the EUR much at the moment. Even though the ECB is expected to buck the trend and leave rates unchanged later Thursday, the EUR could well find itself being sold more on concerns about subprime fallout and the latest signs of political distaste for its recent strength.

Mumbai NS 08:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Oilman gud day mate any thots on euro gl gt

Monaco Oil man 08:09 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
it's ajax enabled here now!

Great stuff GVI.

Monaco Oil man 08:04 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
SL to entry on EY...
Re AUD 2 trade which posted on gvi b4..
TS = 80 for oz$

GL.

Monaco Oil man 01:14 GMT December 6, 2007
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 8740 Target: 8520 Stop: 8778
--
Monaco Oil man 01:11 GMT December 6, 2007
Sell EURJPY.
Entry: 162.40 Target: 161.08--160.08 Stop: 162.87

Monaco Oil man 07:57 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Morning,

OZI$ stepping up on the olympic platform , and readying for the summer sault towards 85 today.
GL.

madrid mm 07:55 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Shangai bc, indeed, what are 100b us$ nowadays in the wonderful world of Fx ? 8-)

I wonder , is the Bush administration turning socialist with its new "underwriting of subprime mortgages" ?

Next step for the US goverment a SWF ... 8-) maybe they have one named GS 8-)


Maribor 07:55 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
EURCAD turn 1,455.

Alaska Moon 07:51 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Thanks....BC...

shanghai bc 07:45 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 07:17 GMT December 6, 2007

Good afternoon..Both Yucho and Kampo used to be run by the govrnment for many years and now is in the process of privatization for the next 10 years..Both,trillion-dollar-boys, have been very active in Yen market daily operations too..Japanese have some 14 trillion Dollar private savings ( the government is virtually bankrupt ) and a large part is in postal savings due to high savings rate there..The government can at any time move around some 4 trillion Dollar assets as they see fit using all those government funds and assets too..They do not need to openly intervene in forex market unless they want others to know about it too..That may explain why Yen can stay motionless or move in one direction non-stop while other currencies jump up and down all the time ..Yucho,Kampo,Toyota,Boj are the boys to watch in Yen market operations too..

Desipie of the market calls of Yen rising very fast,I expect DollarYen to stay largely rangeboun in coming months with 110 as the pivot line..And that can be translated into Eur/Jpy staying rangebound too with the potential of making new highs next year..And that can be further translated into new highs in Dow and other stock markets next year too..Good trades..

GENEVA DS 07:40 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
thanks Maribor.... good day to you.

Maribor 07:40 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS 07:20 GMT December 6, 2007

When(IF) EURAUD goes sub 1,65, it is preferably to buy EURUSD than AUDUSD or (for sell inclined) sell AUDUSD than EURUSD. Till 1,65 opposite apply.

Maribor 07:33 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS 07:20 GMT December 6, 2007

EURAUD is heading down to 1,65 - EURAUD can also be constructed from division EURUSD / AUDUSD; their relative movement will be such that EURAUD will go down. I don't know movement of EURUSD and AUDUSD separately in this moment; would add only that GBPCHF is heading to 2,21 - and as usual, it need not be straight line.

Syd 07:22 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
AMSTERDAM (Thomson Financial) - Companies are demanding quicker payment from their customers due to worries over the credit crisis, newspaper De Financiele Telegraaf reported, citing a Dutch specialised business-to-business insurer.
Companies are no longer willing to wait longer than the term they set for their customers, and this is because they are worried that their customers will not be able to pay the bills due to credit refinancing problems.

Yet the companies themselves are also having more difficulties refinancing their own credit, which is an extra motivation to try to rake in money faster than usual, the newspaper wrote

Geneva DS 07:20 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Maribor... question... what is turn level 165 in EURAUD? do you mean if it goes there, we should buy EUR ? or if it goes there sell more EUR ? thanks for clearing up ...

Maribor 07:18 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
EURAUD turn level 1,65...whether that will be archived with EURUSD (relative to AUDUSD) falling or AUDUSD relative rising, don't know...NZDAUD reached 0,88 turn level and is on the way down again...

GL.

Alaska Moon 07:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 07:12 GMT December 6, 2007
=======
Hi, BC...Allways good to hear from you !! I wish you would tell us a little about Yocho and Kampo...Are they private firms or related to the government ??
Moon

Polokwane CS 07:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:14 GMT December 6, 2007
Polokwane CS 06:53 GMT December 6, 2007

Mr Jay has my several emails for me but you can ask him about wfakoury at hotmail

Thanks !

GL.GT.

Syd .. 07:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Goldman's glory may be short-lived
A big reason for this is Goldman's alacrity at the start of this year in paring down its exposure to subprime mortgages and structured credit, and hedging the remainder. That bet came good as market turmoil struck all investment banks and financial institution in August, leading to some writing down billions.
It has got away with this because it is too powerful to ignore. Private equity firms grumble that Goldman advises them on deals and competes with them but they accept it because it has such a big network of corporate clients that they cannot cut it off. One day, however, this balancing act will blow up in its face.

Goldman's skill, luck and edge have combined this year to produce its great escape. The three will not always align so well.


http://us.ft.com/ftgateway/superpage.ft?news_id=fto120520071428006879&page=2

CT Cris 07:14 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Polokwane CS 06:53 GMT December 6, 2007

Mr Jay has my several emails for me but you can ask him about wfakoury at hotmail.

shanghai bc 07:12 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:00 GMT December 6, 2007

Both Yocho and kampo are Trillion-Dollar-Club boys in forex world ..A new fund with 100 Bilion Dollar sounds like a small potato in comparison :)

madrid mm 07:00 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Kampo is not big enough.....8-)

A group of parliamentarians in Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic party is pushing for the creation of a $100bn sovereign wealth fund modelled on Singapore’s Temasek to improve returns on the country’s massive financial assets.
FT.com!

The Netherlands Purk 06:59 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Cris sis email addys will keep on changing during time. But there is always sand in it. His AKA's are also like the guy who shows his 100 credit cards.

In the meantime the ranger is waiting for the end of the range as of course he was stopped out on the free ride thing.
I have 14513 down, than pattern number 3 gets interesting. For the upside i have 14660-69.

Polokwane CS 06:53 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:14 GMT December 6, 2007

Cris

Please forward your e-mail address to Jay. I would like to contact you but Jay do not have your current e-mail address.

Thanks for your good calls.

madrid mm 06:50 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
* Five-year freeze on subprime mortgage interest rates - Bloomberg.
* Subprime crisis to be followed next by auto loan problems? - Wall St Journal.
* RBS under investigation on possible subprime negligence - The Times.
* Anything more than a BoE MPC interest rate cut unrealistic, UK faces economicdisaster if it fails to follow the US example - Anatole Kaletsky.
* Japan Oct leading indicator +20.0, as eyed, Sep zero; coincident 66.7.
* MoF flow data wk-ended Dec 1 - Japanese buy net Y50.8 bln foreign stocks, sellY874.0 bln bonds, Y210.3 bln bills; foreigners buy Y134.5 bln Japanese stocks,sell Y105.7 bln bonds, buy Y1.3079 trln bills.
* UK CBI survey - Services activity down in Nov QTR but profits up.
* Potential buyers of IKB become more cautious - FT Deutschland.
* Australia Tsy - Reaffirms RBA independence, inflation target, to assist in newRBA appointments - DowJones.
* Australia ABARE ups forecast AUD/USD "07-08 rate to 0.88 from 0.84, ups growthforecast to 4.25% from 3.75%, commodity export growth to stall to +0.8%.
* Australia Nov fixed rate home loans at record high, +18% m/m - AFG.
* RBNZ Gov Bollard - Unlikely to mull policy change till well into "08 - DJ.
* NZ Q3 wholesale trade sales +2.1% q/q, Q2 +2.3%, food-groceries lead rise.



16:00 GMT BoC Governor Dodge, Jenkins testimony before parliamentary committee.

N/A US Pres Bush announces plan on subprimemortgages/TsySec Paulson, at 18:45 GMT.


[Currency Summaries]

[USD/JPY] and JPY crosses moved higher initially in Asia on the back of the WallStreet rally into its close. The rise was attributed as much to leaks of some ofthe details of the Paulson plan on subprime mortgages as the monstrous ADPpayrolls rise (not a very good harbinger of non-farm payrolls). The Nikkei
charged up early, only to fall back later on profit-taking.USD/JPY and otherJPY pairs mirrored the stock market moves. USD/JPY traded up from 110.78 through111.00-area offers and stops above to 111.19 before falling back. [EUR/JPY] rosefrom 161.86 to 162.48 before falling back. This cross seemed to lack much oomphfollowing weak EZ data overnight.

[EUR/USD] opened at 1.4610 in Asia and traded a 1.4573-1.4622 range. The firstmove was to the topside on bargain hunting following the fall overnight. Solidoffers from an European name out of New York were seen from 1.4620 however. Themarket found itself long, and mid-morning sales from US investmenthousestriggered stops below 1.4590 down to 1.4580. The market subsequently reboundedto opening levels. Bids have returned in the high-1.45 area, especially at1.4580-85.


[The Nikkei] surged after the open on the back of the late rally on Wall Streetovernight. It rose to roughly 1.5% before falling back. The afternoon sawanother rally and the index closed out the session up 265.20 points or 1.7% onthe day at 15,874.08. The range was 15,740.94-15,898.26. [TOPIX] closed at1552.27, up 25.64 or 1.68%. Other Asian bourses in the region were up except forthe SSEC.

Syd .. 06:45 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD - Australian Dollar US Dollar
Short term (Intraday)
0,8734. AUD USD is in a consolidation after the last bearish movement. AUD USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is low. ForexTrend 4H (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The consolidation should continue. The price should continue to move in 0,8660 / 0,8800 range. If the support is broken then the target will be 0,8400 censored

Sgp Ash 06:45 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   

mm - thanks a lot.

madrid mm 06:39 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
sgp Ash

http://www.ecb.int/stats/monetary/rates/html/index.en.html

madrid mm 06:35 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
hello and GM FX Jedi

8-(0

Today on the menu -
1/
Bank of England Rate Decision with green mint sauce
2/
European Central Bank Rate Decision today with bearnaise sauce

8-)

Sgp Ash 06:32 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   

Thanks mm - will do that.

madrid mm 06:30 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Sgp Ash 05:49 GMT December 6, 2007

For the ECB , visit its web site. It is explained there. I am do not know about the BoE though

CT Cris 06:14 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD
=====
SELL if breaks level 20254 tp 20120.
BUY if breaks level 20315 tp 20390

break should be confirmed by close of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

Market will be altered by UK Interest Rate Statement coming out at 0700 Newyork time. About 70% economists expect UK to keep the rate unchanged at 5.75%,if the rate cut we may see it heading down. if not we may see it heading up.

Sgp Ash 05:49 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Learned men, can anyone explain what is the equivalent of Fed's discount rate in BOE and ECB. That is, Fed announces fed funds and discount rate. But BOE and ECB announce only one rate

USA Zeus 05:29 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
London Neil 03:21 GMT November 23, 2007
Zeus is very quiet.....
____________________________________________________
Neil is very quiet......................

USA Zeus 05:12 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 06:29 GMT November 30, 2007
USA Zeus 06:22 GMT November 30, 2007

Donkey makes money??? If yes, I am one.

Geneva 06:11 GMT November 30, 2007
I think that any one that trade the last few months against the trend lost a lot. It is not only Zeus! The market right now is unusly over react and there is huge mis pricing!
Every one and is trading style.

____________________________________________________
Perhaps you are a Donkey as you mention but making money?...not a chance.

Laughing my balls off that you say I am losing money as your incorrect ASSessment gets crushed.

Happy Day!

USA Zeus 05:08 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 16:48 GMT December 5, 2007
zeus dear. no hammering on eur/usd. yet...

Well jweb, looked more like it was sledge hammered. LOL


USA Zeus 05:04 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:21 GMT December 5, 2007


For those who put for dough it looks like GBP/USD will have a little pop here soon. Oil seems to be ready for a free fall. Let's see.


Looks like a little pop in action here.
Anyone know what happened to oil after that post? TIA

USA Zeus 05:01 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za 23:22 GMT December 5, 2007

USA Zeus 19:04 GMT…. Very very easy !!!! …lol
Your 18:24 GMT…
Long term = up
Medium term = up > 2,0097
Short term = down

Above 4 hours = up
Below 4 Hours = down
___________________________________________________

Is this from the new improved version of 4X Made (Very Very) E-Z"?
Translation = red light, yellow light, green light- go?

GT!

Syd .. 04:41 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Chinese steelmakers have expressed concerns that a combined Rio Tinto-BHP would have too much power to set iron ore prices.

But most analysts doubt Chinese interests would launch a rival bid for Rio Tinto, which they said would be unlikely to win the approval of the Australian government.

Syd .. 04:04 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
BoE pressured to cut rates to avoid recession

A homeowner with a £250,000 variable mortgage would have been paying £1,686 a month last year. They are now having to hand over an extra £178 a month.

A further 1.5 million homeowners who have been enjoying low-rate fixed loans, taken out two to three years ago, are now facing an "impossible" task of finding an affordable deal, according to the Financial Services Authority.

A cut in interest rates could stop the rot, experts say, as well as inject life into the consumer economy.
TELEGRAPH UK

Syd .. 04:00 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: AUD/USD Likely To Break Below 0.8650 -
AUD/USD building firm base around 0.8650 level but expected to take out this support in coming months triggering a steep fall, Grange Securities chief economist Stephen Roberts says; "part of this is that we're not raising rates any more." Adds Asian, Middle-Eastern investors now eyeing cheaper USD assets, likely to push AUD/USD back to "low-to-mid 0.80s" into 2008. Notes USD now in consolidation phase, putting JPY carry trade "off the radar screen for the time being". Also says 0.94 looks to be peak for AUD/USD in current cycle.

toronto Dr Unken Katt 03:56 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Dr Qindex , whats your take on GBP_YEN tonite ?
TIA

Syd .. 03:53 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Australian Study Shows Climate Change May Cut Farm Production
Potential changes in Australia's climate could cut farm production and productivity in the medium to long term, according to a study issued Thursday by the government's chief commodities forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, or Abare.

Analysis by Abare indicates future climate changes and associated declines in farm productivity and global economic activity might affect global output of key commodities. Australia is projected to be one of the most adversely affected regions from future changes in climate in terms of reductions in agricultural production and exports," said the study.

Blore RKG 03:52 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Blore RKG 09:27 GMT December 5, 2007
Subject:
i see some channel/trend support at 225 - having broken that, see another fig lower. Short yen at 110.50. stop 60 and t/p 110.10. pretty good amount there. Thanks mate!!
==============================================

stg yen filled at 224. square there
on yen, lucky escape - bought back at 110.18. Square there

fresh trades: Sell order yen: 5 each at 111.30 and 111.70. Stop for entire trade at 111.90

Bot small euro at 1.4590. stop 1.4570. will add to longs on break above 1.4675.

jkt-aye 03:35 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Congrats Qindex.
Many thanks for sharing your invaluable view.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:32 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 03:25 GMT - I have upgraded the system recently and it is running much better and more reliable.

Mumbai NS 03:25 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q i don't know how many times i wuld compliment but all posts this time were remarkably fabulous gr8 work doctor gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 03:22 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Gold : It is going to tackle 786.1 - 788.5

hk ab 03:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, is yesterday's view on gold the same for today? i.e. 794-837? Many thanks.

USA BAY 03:11 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Thanks a lot Ahe, will watch for the yen pairs. Have a good one.

_______________________________________________________

Hong Kong Qindex,

Great analysis on the gbp/aud pair yesterday Dr Q, the reversal was very accurate. Thanks a lot

Hong Kong Qindex 03:07 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : It has potential to trade within 1.1344 - 1.1394.

Syd .. 02:51 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD tad down as some stop-loss sell orders triggered below 1.4600, says trader at major Japanese bank. Players adjusting positions ahead of ECB rate decision, also "players are getting a little nervous about the high level of the euro, so we may see some downward adjustments for now," he says.

Syd .. 02:49 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 02:39 :-))) more like kick him up the #@&!!

Hong Kong Qindex 02:47 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : 1.4588 is a supporting barrier and 1.4562 // 1.4566 is a significant level.

shanghai bc 02:39 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd .. 02:24 GMT December 6, 2007

Comrade Brown shalt not lookth Sir Tony's gift horse in the mouth :)

Hong Kong Ahe 02:37 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Also, watch GBPUSD, the development of it looks very bad now as it still hovers around 2.0254/2.0300. Breaking will go to lower range of 1.98, then rebounce 2.01. If tracing from this, Dec7th GBPUSD might be around 1.96 - 1.9920 capped under 2.0 provided sentiment of Rock story continues. GLGT

Hong Kong Ahe 02:27 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 02:09 GMT- Hi YH, Some reasons might come out to match it, perhaps. Or just pure luck by unknown force. I think the reason maynot be just by data of NFP. If NFP is very week, market should be very quiet and then good for Carry traders coming back. But as I see, Market is in high volatility and Carry Traders unwind more instead of carry again. Maybe due to more bad news putting into the fire of Credit market etc. GLGT.

Syd .. 02:24 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
....In Shakespeare’s play, a hallucinating Macbeth has a vision of a dagger, pointing toward the King’s chamber, urging him to follow through on his dark plans to murder Duncan, the sleeping Scottish monarch.

For Gordon Brown, Britain’s Scottish Prime Minister, there can be no worse nightmare than the prospect of the UK sliding into its first recession in over 15 years. The Prime Minister must feel like being Duncan, with a massive dagger pointing at his chest, ready to puncture what is left of his much-vaunted reputation for economic
TROUBLE AHEAD FOR THE ECONOMY

Hong Kong Qindex 02:19 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is heading towards 1.4562.

Syd .. 02:17 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Beijing hints at tighter monetary policy, signaling urgency on overheating
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/05/business/yuan.php

Hong Kong Qindex 02:15 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is under pressure when it is below 1.4591.

Hong Kong YH 02:09 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 02:02 GMT December 6, 2007
May I know why you think JPY will strengthen on Dec7th? Because of non-farm payroll?

Hong Kong Ahe 02:02 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 20:41 GMT December 5, 2007 - Thankslot, hope that you have gained some profit from it. Today it would be a zigsaw correction of previous 2 days. Sell on high of today of GBPJPY (or AUDJPY or NZDJPY) as Dec7th YEN will gain strong strength before London market close. But the market may be in high volatility in one-side tilted. Watch carefully and prepare well the frustration. GLGT.

isr jweb 01:33 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm. are you around anywhere? are your predictions for gbp still valid? any other tips? thank yu

Syd .. 01:33 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
The pound has had its worst day in three-and-a-half years, after a double-whammy of bad economic news led economists to conclude an interest rate cut is now an odds-on probabilithttp://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/05/bcnster105.xml

Rye, NY et 01:31 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
fwiw...Short Eur/Jpy 162.42; cut 162.52;take 161.64

Syd .. 01:20 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
RBA flagging slowing global growth means there's now less than a 50% chance of a rate hike in February, says ICAP chief economist Matt Johnson. Welcomes publication of statement, says key line is global growth to slow to trend in 2008; indicating revised lower expectations for commodity prices, external sector. Bigger picture of global credit crunch means RBA "is sitting on the sidelines". Rates unchanged at 6.75%, next meeting February

Boston Blackie 01:15 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Ah ha, oil slick returns.

Syd .. 01:01 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai Baosteel Group chairman Xu Lejiang denied a Chinese media report earlier this week that the company is planning to bid for mining giant Rio Tinto, the state-run China Securities Journal reported today.

"The report that Baosteel plans to buy Rio Tinto is untrue," the journal quoted Mr Xu as saying.

Dow Jones Newswires


Syd .. 00:47 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
China Shrs May Stall On Econ Mtg's Tightening Call

China shares may stall on tightening signals from latest annual Central Economic Work Conference, where leadership reached new consensus that more has to be done to choke inflation. Shanghai Composite up 2.6% at 5042.65 yesterday, biased around 5000 in moderate trade; Shenzhen Index up 2.8% at 1296.72 last session. Downside for overall market limited in near-term despite likelihood of further monetary tightening, analysts say

Syd .. 00:38 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
French Foreign Trade Minister Says Euro Is Too Strong
The euro is valued too strongly against the dollar, French Foreign Trade Minister Herve Novelli said Wednesday.

"The euro is too strong," he said on a sidelines of a press conference.

He added that "the Chinese currency is undervalued," saying especially if one takes into account China's foreign trade surplus.

In the January-October period this year, China's trade surplus totaled $212.37 billion, much higher than the $177.5 billion for all of last year.


Syd .. 00:30 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD needs to hold above 0.8650, with any dip below "very negative", say nabCapital strategists. NabCapital notes RBA "blinking" and moderating hawkish outlook has lowered yield support for AUD. Expectations for higher rates have slipped, could prompt a sharp decline in AUD. Says all down to credit markets.

Syd .. 00:22 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Canada notes, inflation poses no obstacle to monetary easing, as core inflation is below the 2% mid-point of its target range and falling, and retail prices are set to melt following the rise of CAD, says a report from BCA Research. Bottom Line: The BoC has scope to cut rates further if threats to growth mount

dc CB 00:20 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
So the initial reaction to the Paulson plan, complicated as it may be is "positive".

Those complaining: anyone who bought the loan packages expecting a high return for their risk. Short sellers of these debt packages--like GS. But then GS's "well known" shorts have probably been reversed. Santa drop down my chimney...lol.

All of this duplicity will probably be beneficial to the Canadian Dollar, which has been soooo wacked.

Syd .. 00:15 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Merrill Lynch says Japan interest rates should be fairly stable at current low levels next year, but expects yen to find support through several avenues: General USD selling in 1H08; increased risk aversion as global business cycle ages; renewed interest in JPY from global central banks, sovereign wealth funds as an alternative to both USD, EUR; and knock-on effects from accelerated Asian currency appreciation. Targets USD/JPY at 105 by end March, 103 by end June

Hong Kong Qindex 00:14 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 2.0261 - 2.0291 for the time being.

Syd .. 00:12 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD to trade with negative bias. AUD/USD undermined by surprisingly dovish RBA monetary policy statement yesterday, broadly stronger USD undertone, lower gold prices, recent weak data such as record merchandise trade deficit, disappointing Australia October retail trade. But AUD/USD downside limited by AUD demand for long AUD/JPY trades. AUD/USD daily chart negative as MACD & stochastics bearish, though latter near oversold: Suggests steady or lower AUD/USD trading near term. Immediate support at 0.8651 (Nov. 21 low), breach of which would expose downside to 0.8536

Philadelphia Caba 00:05 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 23:24 GMT
long at 7203, long order waiting at 7180

Syd .. 00:02 GMT December 6, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei 225 Stock Average Opens Up 1.1% At 15782.40

 




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