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Forex Forum Archive for 12/09/2007

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Syd 23:59 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Iran could reach nuclear goal ‘in a year’
Several distinguished physicists and nuclear weapons experts say Iran is speeding up its nuclear programme and could develop enough material for a bomb well ahead of the 2010-2015 period estimated by western intelligence agencies.

Speaking to the Financial Times, the experts said that information contained in this week’s International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran made the US and European estimates of Tehran’s nuclear capacity look ever more out of date.

shanghai bc 23:53 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Jay 06:23 GMT December 9, 2007

Pboc is likely to resort more to indirect methods than direct method of hiking rates to control inflation..In any case,graudal and steady rise of Rmb against all major currencies is highly likely next year..Against Usd,5-8% rise next year is a good possibility too..Good trades..

Syd 23:52 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Japan Oct Core Machinery Orders +12.7% On Month
Japan Oct Core Machinery Orders +3.3% On Year

Syd 23:51 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Japan Nov Money Supply +2.0% Vs Oct +1.9%

Syd 23:42 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Accountants predict rise in insolvencies
The country’s leading accounting practices are expecting a rush of insolvency work in the new year, amid fears that the credit crisis will dry up the “wall of cash” that in the past has saved troubled businesses from going bust.

Syd 23:38 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
NZ Nov House Prices Soften, Sector Continues To Slow

Syd 23:26 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
SP AusNet abandons $8.3bn acquisition
SP AusNet said today it will not proceed with the purchase of $8.3 billion worth of ex-Alinta assets, citing deteriorating debt markets as the reason for its decision.

saopaulo cg 23:23 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
may be we can have some days of carry unwinding but not against usd like two/three weeks ago. This time it could be against gbp, aud and nzd. Big winners can be usd and jpy.

Syd 23:02 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Many analysts estimate that the bank may be forced to take another big writedown on these assets, amounting to CHF8 billion-CHF10 billion.
UBS said earlier that it expects additional subprime writedowns in the fourth quarter, leading to a net loss in the investment banking division, but that it expects the bank to be profitable overall in the last quarter of the year.

Syd 22:57 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
The board of Swiss bank UBS AG
is holding an unscheduled meeting this weekend, and could announce more sizable writedowns on its subprime mortgage exposure as early as Monday, reports Swiss weekly Sonntagszeitung.

new brighton gvm 22:45 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
interesting take on the 'freeze' plan

Syd 22:24 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
AUD sharply lower in early trade on fears of further subprime related writedowns at major international investment banks, coupled with move by China to hike bank required reserve ratio, says Deutsche Bank strategist John Horner. PBOC lifts required reserve ratio 100 bps to 15.4%, weighing on risk appetite

Syd 22:11 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Weekend news PBOC is raising reserve requirement ratio for 10th time this year, effective Dec. 25, brings RRR for most commercial banks to 14.5%. Move, while expected, may signal step-up in Beijing's efforts to bring inflation, economy under control, as is first move since end of key economic work meeting last week that laid out 2008 economic policy priorities; more RRR hikes expected, as well as interest rate increases, other administrative curbs, but many economists still calling for faster CNY gains to mop up liquidity

Syd 22:09 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Westpac: Risk-Weighted Assets Expected To Decline

Syd 22:00 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand housing prices softened last month, a survey showed Sunday, supporting evidence of cooling demand in the sector.

The average sales price decreased to NZ$393,198 in November, on a three-month moving average, from NZ$406,176 in October, government agency Quotable Value said.

Syd 21:55 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Warning signs are flashing, costs are up, house prices are down and homeowners should brace themselves for a rocky ride
Next year will be a tough one for many homeowners, especially those coming off shortterm mortgage deals. The swell of bad debt in the banking sector that brought Northern Rock to its knees refuses to dissipate and could worsen, meaning banks and building societies will be less willing to offer cheap loans.
House prices have started to slide and consumer confidence in the economy is at its lowest for four years.

Syd 21:50 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Doubts cast on Northern Rock sale

Fresh doubts have been cast on Northern Rock's future, with Lib Dem leader Vince Cable saying plans to sell the troubled bank "will not work".
The global credit crisis meant no bidder could raise the money needed to pay back the £25bn in government loans made to the bank, he told the BBC.

Syd 21:40 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
UK owners may be forced to sell homes
Homeowners may be forced to sell next year and join the ranks of renters when lenders tighten terms for borrowers with poor credit histories, the Council of Mortgage Lenders warned yesterday.

London NYAM 21:14 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
You are welcome cg. I have noted your contributions as well and they are appreciated here. glgt.

Syd 20:49 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
BIS Suggests Focus On Losses For Forex Carry Trade
This summer's rapid unwind of carry trades, such as the New Zealand dollar against the yen, serves as an example of that. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are more prone to losses than other carry trade targets like the Indonesian rupiah, the Indian rupee and the Philippine peso, the BIS said.

Looking at volatility levels alone, "carry trades appear much less risky than major equity markets," with daily return volatility's in carry roughly half the size of those in equities, the BIS noted.

But, the BIS tentatively suggested that with a focus on downside risk, "absolute differences between carry trade and equity market strategies in terms of compensation received per unit of risk, have narrowed considerably."

The BIS said while this doesn't imply that risk-focused strategies are superior, "the relative uniformity of risk-return ratios across currency pairs (using risk-focused measures) suggests that returns for carry trade strategies may be closely aligned to downside risk."

It concluded that carry trades and equity markets belong to different asset classes, for which risks are priced differently.

PAR 20:38 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
From 2001 to 2007 an AUD JPY carry trade made an annualise return of 12.5 % compared to 3.5¨% return in S&P equities.

Syd 19:46 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Subprime crisis forces Storm to cancel float

Storm Financial has cancelled its Australian sharemarket float after failing to raise enough funds in its initial public offering. The financial planning business intended to raise $A170 million. The shares reserved for staff and clients were oversubscribed, but it blamed the sub-prime credit crisis for the lack of interest by institutional investors. Its planned acquisition of $A6.2 million worth of new financial planning businesses is now uncertain. Another financial planning group, BT Investment Management, has raised over $A250 million and will list on 10 December

saopaulo cg 19:16 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
thank you for share NYAM.

London NYAM 19:01 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
"This would mean that one could count the formation as complete as s at 117.78": should read "111.78"
and correction targets for scenario 3 (which i forgot to add) would be 108.95 to 110.30.
Some good evidence to suggest a near top is alreayd at hand can be found from the s&p chart which is toppish, the usdchf whcih also appears to be nearing a s/t top and USDCAD which looks ready to drop through 1.00 on Monday.

new albany mb 17:33 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
geneva 14:21
keep your offensive political views to yourself

London NYAM 16:50 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Some possible scenarios for describing the last wave from 109.53 to the present in USDJPY in order of likelihood and likely results:
1. Ending diagonal or terminal fifth: This would mean the move from 109.55 was running in a triangular series of five three wave patterns. This would mean that one could count the formation as complete as s at 117.78 or that another wave is due that would likely bounce off the s/t t/l at 111.50 and then settle around 112.60 before falling to between 109.55 and 110.10 in the first corrective swing.
2. An irregular B where the move from 107.21 is a three wave A and the irregular b within the B wave has risen above the 111.21 (23.6% retrace of the move from 124.12 to 107.21) indicating a strong upward market and a shallow c-wave to terminate the B wave. Here likely tops are 111.85 and 112.25 followed by a sell off in five waves to between 110.40-70 and 110.90-111.20 (respectively according to the possible highs)
3. a regular wave 5: I position this as the least likely as the waves are overlapping to such a degree that it would require the corrective waves to have highly irregular rising characteristics. But if this is the case then a likely final move will appear to have a break-out characteristic reflecting the repeated impotence of the corrective down moves. This breakout fifth of fifth would target 112.40-60 and stall either at 113.22 (the low of 21st October and “last chance” for USDJPY to fall below 107.21 before rising above 113.22) or 113.65/68 (38.2% retrace of major down leg).

isr jweb 14:58 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
hi guys, anyone second guessing how the open will be?

Geneva 14:21 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
HK RF@ 12:04 GMT December 9, 2007

Thay are much clever then the stupid US president!

Mumbai Deepak 12:20 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Jay 06:23 GMT / Here is JPM's report on Chinese Tightening.

I fell it could compell the FED to cut 50, due to potential hit on exports on possible Asian/chinese slowdown.

The People's Bank of China announced today (December 8) that the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for financial institutions’ yuan deposits will be raised again, by 100bp to 14.5%, effective December 25. This is the tenth time that the central bank has raised the RRR this year. The central bank emphasized in its press statement that the move, as part of the shift to a tighter monetary policy stance announced by the Central Economic Annual Working Summit recently, is intended to strengthen liquidity management in the banking system, to curb excess credit expansion.
 The latest move, which will freeze about 378 billion yuan in the banking system, can be viewed as preemptive, in anticipation of China’s continuing huge trade surplus, the seasonal surge of fiscal deposit in the fourth quarter and the 454bn yuan PBoC bill redemption in December. Indeed, the RRR hikes have been a way for the PBoC to stave off some of the additional excess liquidity generated by the persistently high trade surpluses and the PBoC’s intervention in exchange markets to keep the surpluses from affecting the RMB rate. As the external surpluses are expected to remain elevated going forward, the central bank will have to resort to intensified sterilization and RRR hikes to manage excess liquidity. However, given the sterilization cost consideration (1-year PBoC bond yield has risen steadily to 3.99%, while the central bank only pays 1.89% for required reserves), the central bank will continue to prefer RRR hikes as the major tool to absorb liquidity going forward.
 While we still anticipate the need for more interest rate hikes (we expect four rate hikes by end 08 to bring the one-year benchmark deposit rate to 4.95% and lending rate to 8.28%), expected Fed rate cuts will limit the PBoC’s scope to hike rates more decisively if China is still determined to limit RMB appreciation. With USD rates declining, RMB has become a positive carry currency relative to USD, and hiking domestic rates could lead to more capital inflow, thus exacerbating the liquidity excess rather than curbing it. The central bank’s concern about this is reflected in the recent investigation of inflows of tens of billions of dollars in currency into China.
 Given the increasing cost of sterilization and limited scope of rate hikes going forward, the central bank may hike RRR further in 2008 than we had expected earlier (till 15%). Indeed, to be effective in actually tightening the liquidity situation in the market, RRR needs to be hiked above the total reserve level held at the PBoC, which averaged 15.3% of deposits by the end of September (according to the PBoC, Chinese banks and financial institutions had excess reserves at the central bank equal to 2.8% of their deposits at the end of September, when the RRR at that time was 12.5%). Hence, we revise our forecast up and now expect RRR to reach 16% by the end of 2008.
 Fundamentally, we continue to emphasize that accelerated RMB appreciation, in addition to structural reforms such as measures to expand the flow of investment abroad, is the most effective policy tool to deal with China’s problems of excess liquidity and rising inflation pressure. We have long held the most aggressive view on RMB appreciation among market participants and continue to expect the CNY/USD exchange rate to reach 6.3 by end of 2008.

HK RF@ 12:04 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply
Iran stops oil sales in dollar
Tehran: 8 hours and 54 minutes ago

Iran has completely stopped selling any of its oil for the US dollar, an Iranian news agency reported, citing the oil minister of the world's fourth-largest crude producer.

The Isna news agency did not give a direct quote from Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari.

A senior oil official last month said 'nearly all' of Iran's crude oil sales were now being paid for in non-US currencies.

For nearly two years, Iran has been reducing its exposure to the dollar, saying the weak US currency is eroding its purchasing power.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has called the US currency a 'worthless piece of paper”.

Foes since Iran's 1979 Islamic revolution, Tehran and Washington are also at odds over Iran's disputed nuclear programme as well as over policy in Iraq.

'In line with the policy of selling crude oil in currencies other than the US dollar, currently the sale of our country's oil in US dollars has been completely eliminated,' ISNA reported after talking with Nozari.

Nozari said: 'In regards to the decrease in the dollar's value and the loss exporters of crude oil have endured from this trend, the dollar is no longer a reliable currency.'

'This is why, at the meeting of the heads of states, Iran proposed to Opec members that a currency (for oil exports) would be determined that would be reliable and would not cause any loss to exporter countries,' he said.

Here the americans learn for themselves how foolish they are. Just days after releasing the their report, stating that Iran has desisted long ago from it's plan to go on with it's nuke bomb plans, the Iranian slap the above at their face.

Every idiot knows that the bottleneck in a production of an A-Bomb is the accomulation by enriching the fissioning material(U235 or Plutonium), after one gets the amount needed (above the critical mass) the next steps are a Cinderella story.
So what are out there little good Mahmoud and the 3000 centrifuges for???
This situation is not very stable politically and the Sheet will soon hit the fan. This is the prize the US will get for acting foolish appeasers towards the non-appeasables..

Mumbai Jay 06:23 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
Hi Bc...After yesterday's aggressive tightening of reserve requirement by China, do you think there will be aggressive loosening of Yuan Peg too in the coming days? TIA

Mumbai Deepak 05:22 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 16:18 / Thank You!

Hong Kong Qindex 01:46 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Trading Reference : ... 0.6966 - 0.7003* - 0.7040 - 0.7059 // 0.7077* - 0.7095 - 0.7114 - 0.7132 - 0.7151* - 0.7169 - [0.7187] - 0.7206 - 0.7224* - 0.7243 - 0.7261 - 0.7280 - 0.7298* // 0.7316 - 0.7335 - 0.7372* - 0.7409 ...

Remarks (EUR/GBP) : The pivot center is located at 0.7187 - 0.7217. The market momentum is strong when it is above 0.7195. A projected resistant level is located at 0.7250 - 0.7255. Projected supporting points are expected at 0.7151 and 0.7164.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:46 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Trading Reference : ... 0.8283 - 0.8375* - 0.8466 - 0.8512 - 0.8557* - 0.8603 - 0.8649 - 0.8694 - 0.8740* - 0.8786 - [0.8831] - 0.8877 - 0.8923* - 0.8968 - 0.9014 - 0.9060 - 0.9105* - 0.9151 - 0.9197 - 0.9288* - 0.9380 ...

Remarks (AUD/USD) : The pivot center is located at 0.8497 - 0.8831. A projected supporting point is positioning at 0.8557 and a projected resistant point is expected at 0.9105. The bias is on the downside when the market is below 0.8831. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8618. The weekly cycle pivot center is located at 0.8689 - 0.8714. Upside targeting points are 0.8998 and 0.9182. Downside targeting points are 0.8380 and 0.8433.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:45 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Trading Reference : ... 100.59 - 102.31* - 104.04 - 104.90 // 105.76* - 106.62 - 107.48 - 108.34 - 109.20* - 110.06 - [110.93] - 111.79 - 112.65* - 113.51 - 114.37 - 115.23 - 116.09* - 116.95 - 117.82 - 119.54* - 121.26 ...

Remarks (USD/JPY) : The pivot center is located at 109.41 - 110.93. Projected resistant points are located at 112.65 and 114.37. Projected supporting points are expected at 104.45 and 105.76. My bias is on the downside when the market is not able to close above 111.99 in New York session. The weekly cycle pivot center is positioning at 110.49 - 110.76. Upside targeting points are 112.70 and 113.04. Downside targeting points are 108.28 and 108.48.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:45 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Trading Reference : ... 0.9313 - 0.9440* - 0.9567 - 0.9630 - 0.9694* - 0.9757 - 0.9821 - 0.9884 - 0.9948* - 1.0011 - [1.0075] - 1.0138 - 1.0202* - 1.0265 - 1.0329 - 1.0392 // 1.0456* - 1.0519 - 1.0583 - 1.0710* - 1.0837 ...

Remarks (USD/CAD) : The pivot center is located at 0.9803 - 1.0075 and the critical supporting point is positioning at 0.9694*. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 1.308 // 1.343.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:45 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Trading Reference : ... 0.9973 - 1.0170* - 1.0368 - 1.0466 // 1.0565* - 1.0663 - 1.0762 - 1.0861 - 1.0959* - 1.1058 - [1.1157] - 1.1255 - 1.1354* - 1.1452 - 1.1551 - 1.1650 // 1.1748*

Remarks (USD/CHF) : The upper barrier of the projected series is located at 1.1650 // 1.1748*. The market is positive when it is trading above the pivot center at 1.1057 - 1.1157 and the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 1.1354. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is below the barrier at 1.0853 // 1.0959.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:44 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Trading Reference : ... 1.8344 - 1.8566* - 1.8789 - 1.8900 - 1.9012*// 1.9123 - 1.9234 - 1.9346 - 1.9457* - 1.9568* - [1.9679] - 1.9791 - 1.9902* - 2.0013 - 2.0125 - 2.0236 // 2.0347* - 2.0459 - 2.0570 - 2.0792* - 2.1015 ...

Remarks (GBP/USD) : The upper barrier of the projected series is located at 2.0236 // 2.0347*. The market is under pressure when it is retreating from the 2.0347* and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 2.0125 which is the mid-point reference of 1.9902* - 2.0347*. The pivot center is located at 1.9679 - 1.9911. The initial downside targeting level is 1.9902* - 1.9911.

Hong Kong Qindex 01:44 GMT December 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Trading Reference : ... 1.3896 - 1.4008* - 1.4119 - 1.4175 - 1.4230* // 1.4286 - 1.4342 - 1.4397 - 1.4453* - 1.4509 - [1.4564] - 1.4620 - 1.4676* - 1.4731 - 1.4787 - 1.4843 - 1.4898* // 1.4954 - 1.5010 - 1.5121* - 1.5232 ...

Remarks (EUR/USD) : The trading reference indicates that the market is consolidating between 1.4453 - 1.4725 for the time being. The upper barrier is located at 1.4898 // 1.4954 and the lower barrier is positioning at 1.4230* // 1.4286. The pivot center is located at 1.4564 - 1.4611. The bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the barrier at 1.4676 // 1.4725.


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