Forex Forum Archive for 12/11/2007

Syd 23:51 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY to maintain negative bias after sharp fall on Fed's bare-minimum rate cuts. Risk aversion spikes as U.S. stocks fall steeply, prompting dumping of short-JPY carry trades
As a result, the tightness in the credit markets will continue." USD/JPY daily chart negative-biased as stochastics turned bearish at overbought, bearish-engulfing candlestick pattern completed yesterday. No serious support until 109.54 (Dec. 4 reaction low), then at 108.25 (Nov. 28 low)

Syd 23:42 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Cyclicals likely to be among hardest hit in any sell-off on Tokyo shares today, says trader at U.S. brokerage in Tokyo. "Yesterday all these sectors went on a tear from mid-morning until close - that could be some funds moving back into the space since their sell-off last week. They're likely to dump them today hard," he says. Topix wholesale index up 3% yesterday, Marine Transport up 2.9%, Machinery up 1.3%. Sell-off of these sectors may be led by quant funds he adds, which are particularly likely to take news of FOMC cut badly. Volatility likely to spike up sharply on options front with buying of puts as well ahead of Friday's big quarterly SQ

Syd 23:35 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD - to trade with negative bias, undermined by carry-trade unloading, lower gold prices, weak Australian economic data, lowered expectations of RBA 1Q rate hike.AUD/USD daily chart mixed as stochastics turning negative, but MACD neutral

melbourne saint 23:33 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
18:30ET DJ Australian Consumer Sentiment Index +1.8% In Dec Vs Nov [ http://w3t.org/u/6f8g ] 

cheers saint

Gen dk 23:32 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 23:28 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
someone buying the dips in E/J & G/J with stops below the Post Fed lows?

hk ab 23:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
japanese seems setting up a nice game for this Xmas on e/j and u/j.

In the past years, they have made good use of the thin condition to toy the pair for 10 figs. And I start to sense such game will reappear again this year, qns is which direction, south or north....

Right now, I am more intended to the north side.

Syd 23:07 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei expected to open sharply lower, possibly around 15700, as Tokyo stocks take cue from overnight slump on Wall Street after FOMC cuts rates by 25 basis points, less than 50 some investors had hoped for. Also raises prospects Fed may not cut rates further. "U.S. markets didn't take this well and Japan is not going to either," says head of equity derivative trading at U.S. brokerage in Tokyo. Could be extra volatility ahead of futures SQ Friday, with large amount of flow on this front, he says

Syd 22:28 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Russian Judge Fatally Shot In Dagestan Region - PoliceThe province in Russia's restive North Caucasus is troubled by violence linked to the separatist conflict in neighboring Chechnya, a police crackdown on Islamic militancy and internal power struggles.

USA BAY 22:25 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye,

LOL, good one Aye. Good trades.

London NYAM 22:23 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:16//
decent targets, but still feel ambitious on this one. support at 2.0206/65 and multiple hits at 2.0020/80. will be clearer after we see how much Asia tries to counter trend.

jkt-aye 22:23 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
BOB, BAY... for me the question is who am i ? lol.
gt and enjoy the ride.

Syd 22:19 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Fed statement overall only slightly different from October, excluding "roughly balanced" risks line from prior statements, but indicating willingness to ease further if warranted, says UBS; "the fact the Fed is directly addressing economic strains, even if less swiftly than some had hoped for, supports a brighter outlook for the U.S. dollar, in our view." With credit market conditions still far from normal and "the Fed at the fore of remediation, the dollar should benefit from lessening doubt." Expects in 2008 the ECB to follow Fed, BoE, BoC in acknowledging downside risks to growth as justification for easing policy; keeps view EUR/USD will fall to 1.45 in near term, 1.40 over medium term.(

USA BAY 22:16 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Will join you on the short gbp/usd, the pivot is 2.04 and 2.0447 is the resistance, tp levels
tp 1: 2.0275
tp2: 2.0225
tp3: 2.0182

Syd 22:15 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Mathew Castle ING says sees stronger yen in Aussie breaking down to 85 quite rapid heading for 83 FWIW just on Squawk Asia

USA BAY 22:10 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
It is not how good an analysts is. More information and different views add to your analysis. But finally its your analysis, judgement and money management is what counts not how good their calls are. We post different views here so that maybe sometimes its good to take a look from different angle and maybe sometimes its useful.

London NYAM 22:10 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
FWIW//
usdjpy:
long limits
109.73 x1
109.20 x2
108.57 x3
stop :107.18
gbpusd adds
2.0369 x1
2.0398 x1
2.0419 x2
2.0439 x3
stop 2.0447

toronto Malver Sant 22:08 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
i dont think we ll see 200,00 in cableyen anytime soon its just a breather for the majors ,
some call for 1.80 euro , noffin has chanded fundamentally

St. Annaland Bob 22:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   

how good Ashraf Laidi is? ... let's ask, how good someone calling 3K pips opposite to BC can be?

toronto Malver Sant 22:00 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Brisbane 21:48
how good Anal yst is he ?

USA BAY 21:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD since it broke 1.0150 may be bullish re-visit last week's high at 1.02xx area.

Syd 21:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
US Stocks Plunge After Fed Move, With GE, WaMu Declining

Syd 21:49 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD made the expected upmove to reach our targets of AUD - .8880 and NZD - .7840, and then reversed these gains after the Federal Reserve cut rates. The aggressive slide tells us that a medium-term peak is in place, as expected, and the Aussie and the Kiwi should now decline for two weeks. The short cycles are negative to Thursday and these currencies should reach the supports at .8655 and .7635 before a minor low is in place. They should then make only a brief recovery before heading further down to the week of December 24 and our targets are .8575 and .7580.
fxc

USA BAY 21:49 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Brisbane ,

Great, you are more intelligent.

Ask your questions properly and it shall be answered intelligently. I am not going to waste my time on this and the space of this forum.

Brisbane 21:48 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
toronto Malver Sant 21:33 GMT December 11, 2007

Ashraf Laidi censored Markets chief FX Analyst

USA Zeus 21:46 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:36 GMT December 11, 2007

Now we know the true cause of today's market activity- LOL!

Brisbane 21:45 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:36 GMT December 11, 2007
toronto Malver Sant

human from planet earth

Bay is it difficult if you post to open you brain up and say something more intelligent ?

Ashraf Laidi is censored Markets’ Chief FX Analyst.

USA Zeus 21:45 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
manila stubbs 20:46 GMT December 11, 2007

Likely so Stubbs. Looks like volatility will be here in coming sessions. Soon all those daily graph guys will see what is going on when their lagging crossover systems reverse and they cut out and change their tune. Then EUR/USD and GBP/USD give up any hope of testing, thus allowing them to rocket southbound.

The trend is your friend.

Cheers!

Syd 21:45 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Yen set to go higher in near term following Fed decision, says Brown Brothers Harriman; adds USD/JPY ran out of stream near 112.15, expects move back toward 110.00. Tips 109.10 as key support, which if breached will point to retest of November low of 107.23. "The Fed's statement seems to emphasize uncertainty," says BBH; adds Fed still cites inflation risks, recent developments increasing uncertainty of outlook for growth, inflation. "In general the door is left ajar for a move in January should market conditions not improve." USD/JPY last 110.68.

Syd 21:41 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Dow sheds 294.3 points, or 2.1%, to end at 13,433.2 - MarketWatch

http://www.marketwatch.com/quotes/djia

Syd 21:36 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
See Warren Buffett is backing Clinton

USA BAY 21:36 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
toronto Malver Sant

human from planet earth

USA BAY 21:34 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London Nyam,

You may have a point. Wonder if Asian bourses will follow US stock market today.

toronto Malver Sant 21:33 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
who the censored is Asraf Laidi ?

Syd 21:33 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:30 GMT he didnt give levels but talk of 83 Aud aud/yen a wild card for me

Syd 21:30 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NZD extends early losses as Fed cut disappoints, Wall Street falls sharply; NZD/USD falls to 0.7716, off 1.6% post-Fed, last 0.7727; NZD/JPY hits low of 85.30 vs 87.57 pre-Fed, now 85.44. Westpac Bank dealer says Kiwi could garner support later in day but early Asian market reaction to Fed still holds downside risks; "There's still further selling risk for the Kiwi, if Asia goes the way of Wall Street (the Kiwi) may push lower again."

USA BAY 21:30 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

What levels does he see for aud/usd or aud/jpy. TIA

London NYAM 21:29 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:18//its in play for sure but looking at the s&p i would like to see what happens. I do think we may still get that end of year rally in equities. I may of course be acting overly contrarian. i have limits to go long under 110.00 so i am talking my book.

Syd 21:29 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY yes he is very negative Aud also , reading an article of his getting bullish on the USD

USA BAY 21:28 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd,

Asraf Laidi calls 142 in eur/jpy and 201 in gbp/jpy.

Syd 21:25 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD likely to "have a look" at sub-0.8700 prices when Tokyo markets open following FOMC decision, statement, says Suncorp treasury analyst Peter Pontikis;

Syd 21:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYC jr 21:19 GMT shoudl try listening to it in the early hours

NYC jr 21:19 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
haha her voice always sounds like a fire alarm to me.

USA BAY 21:18 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Nyam, looks like usd/jpy 107.30/40 is in play again.

Syd 21:15 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYC jr 21:14 Maria the mouth shouted it when a fire bell went off

NYC jr 21:14 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
firesale, syd?

Syd 21:14 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD To Test 0.8650 Support Base in Asian trade but expected to hold above this level, says Grange Securities chief economist Stephen Roberts. Notes holders of high-yielding currencies disappointed with notion that "Fed is going to move pretty slowly over the next few months" in its easing cycle

Geneva 21:13 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
In order to fight inflation they will need a stronger dollar as they can't really rise rate.

Syd 21:09 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
fire in the Stock exchange NY

Syd 21:06 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
RBA Stevens' comments yesterday that market woes will help contain inflation, helping bond futures in aus with hikes now on hold here

dc CB 21:06 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
SnP Cash sliced thru 50 and 200dma and closed almost 8pt below the 200. 1477.63 Down 38+, less than a point above the day low.

London NYAM 21:05 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Zeus//by the way, an inspired call on usdjpy. Wish you would stop talking about "mAsses" though it sounds a little arrogant. Whatever, you are doing well, so good trades.

Syd 21:01 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 13,427.56 4:00pm ET 299.47 (2.18%) down

London NYAM 20:58 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
out of another 1/5 short on GBPUSD 2.0336 will re-sell should we breach 2.0420

Syd 20:49 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD To Pull Below 0.8700 After Fed - ANZ

manila stubbs 20:46 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
hey zeus, been following your calls mate. any chance we get to reload pounds at better levels for sub 2.0? TIA

USA Zeus 20:41 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Treasury + equity markets are sending the very strong and correct message.

London NYAM 20:40 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
BAY// :)
The purse is symbolic more than notional. My wife secretly saw my account and gave me day after day of anxiety about trading for a living. Since i had a near blow out like a rookie (killed my account by 88% which she found out about) i have had to work quite hard to get back in black. the purse represents a return to black and an "in your face" to my wife.
Keep in my mind that trading on my own account is still only a side profession although i get bonuses from my company for trade input. I have great respect for the traders here that only do this and live on this alone. One day perhaps.

Syd 20:32 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY slides on Fed's 25bps cut to discount window, disappointing investors; risks remain to downside, says nabCapital strategist John Kyriakopoulos. Notes Fed caution about potential inflation drives sharp selloff in global equities

Como Perrie 20:30 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 20:27 GMT December 11, 2007

as said weeks ago I agree when Dow drops below 12500. This is still valid

dc CB 20:29 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
If the Dow had been trading at 12900 instead of 13700, and the SnP at 1410 instead of 1515, there would have been a 50bp cut across the board, maybe even a 75 on the discount rate.

USA Zeus 20:27 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD sub 2.0000 is (still) coming.

USA BAY 20:25 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

How expensive is the purse or it is expensive because it it going to contain profits from your execellent calls. LOL. Well done my friend and above all thanks for sharing with us. gt/gl

Syd 20:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Slides On Fed Cut; Breaches Key Support

AUD/USD slides more than 1 U.S. cent immediately after Fed cuts funds rate, discount rate by 25 bps; pair falls from New York high 0.8890, breaches key 0.8750 support level, before rebounding slightly. Main disappointment is cut in discount window, says ABN Amro strategist Greg Gibbs; but adds market reaction "surprising" given statement focuses on risks to economy; doesn't expect AUD to rebound during Asian session.

Syd 20:20 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 13,465.12 3:20pm ET 261.91 (1.91%) down

probably below 300 close

Maribor 20:19 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Bay - I looked at AUDGBP... short term may go to 0,422 before up; longer term would expect peaks around 0,465 and later 0,5010. Have not worked analysis on that pair before, so do not have much feeling.

saopaulo cg 20:15 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
nyam,
congratulations my friend, tomorow UK unemployment can be the strawberry of the cake

london jp 20:14 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM - Excellent trades!

Syd 20:14 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 13,492.43 3:13pm ET 234.60 (1.71%) down and falling

London NYAM 20:12 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
BAY and BOND// thank you. I can actually now buy that stupid purse for my wife. If GBPUSD behaves itself i will be able to buy my son that wii as well.
is//anything is possible, but i will be buying into he sell of of the usdjpy. We may part company on the expectations but not the comraderie. glgt

JAK BOND 20:07 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Avery strong resistant at 2.0350 for gbpusd

Syd 20:04 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE IN 13,498.20 3:04pm ET 228.83 (1.67%)

madrid mm 20:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
i wonder if KAMPO is here at 110.75ish ??

madrid mm 20:02 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
i think Chairman Bennie and friends all over the CBs wll be good for the fx market...

A lot of volatility !

8-)

madrid mm 19:59 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Alaska moon,

i am so confused my fx jedi friend 8-)

Buy buy buy !! No no no sell sell sell ...no no no buy buy buy
LOL

Como Perrie 19:57 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Dow daily 200MA placed around 13300

isr is 19:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, looks like i am changing my view and won´t take profits on my shorts GBPJPY, I am inclined to see it much, much lower and considering that USDYEN could test the 107 lows and look for more....There is a limit to how much power is left for the FED ...lol

Como Perrie 19:55 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
What surprised markets was the discount or lending rate to banks cut only by 1/4 and o.c. the underlining of energy prices to influence inflation.

Interesting days ahead imvho

Hong Kong Ahe 19:53 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 19:51 GMT - Thanks a millions. GT

Syd 19:52 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe if dow ends 200 plus today will move lower

Geneva 19:51 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Tomorow after the trade numbers the euro will be below 1.46.

Syd 19:51 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe need to just press the red button ;-)) USD and EUR continue to fall versus JPY as stock markets sell off on FOMC's rate decision, scaring carry traders into dumping the higher-yielding currencies in favor of the low-yielding yen.

CT Cris 19:49 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd will drop 100 pips fast.

Hong Kong Ahe 19:48 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 19:44 GMT - No time to digest FOMC statement as market moving fast and see carry traders unwinding. What does it say that carry traders are so scary to find the exit door? LOL GLGT.

Maribor 19:46 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NZDUSD still going to 0,79 before turn down...

JAK BOND 19:46 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

Another great call NYAM.....

YOU become richer and richer by day : )

Syd 19:44 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
traders say sharp selloff in Wall Street following Fed's statement has triggered bout of carry-trade unwinding, hammering high-yield currencies like Kiwi, Aussie; "The losses have been triggered by the Dow selling off sharply...people are panicking a little and rushing out the door," says ANZ Bank dealer. Thinks FX markets will remain fairly volatile given weak Wall Street, plus as investors digest Fed statement.

Makassar Alimin 19:43 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
will see if DJI can hold 13450 to detemine my next position in fx

Alaska Moon 19:43 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
It is interesting that since the announcment, EUR/US moved strong Dollar, and US/YEN moved weak Dollar.....

Hong Kong Ahe 19:42 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Look like the whole world is playing cross.

USA BAY 19:41 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
MARIBOR,

Any idea on gbp/aud, tia.

Maribor 19:41 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY finaly hit 229,5 today; however, it have already hit next turn level 225,8, so would be looking for advance up again.

USA BAY 19:40 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

CONGRATS NYAM, Great calls.

CT Cris 19:39 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd..ready to drop.

Maribor 19:38 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Bay, I sold now at 1,487.

London NYAM 19:38 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
YH// thanks. Im very bearish GBPUSD, not so bearish gbpjpy and looking to buy back into usdjpy around 109 to 110.45. i am trailing on gbpjpy now as it has hit my target already and i will watch to see how much more i can get out of it. no target right now. Ive already posted gbpusd targets and i am still happy with them.

dc CB 19:38 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
So the SnP rose what 120 points in two weeks on the "idea" of an agressive rate cut..."hinted" at by Kos and Ben, with an added goose by the "rescue plan"". All of which allowed dumping and shorting at higher and higher levels. Wonder how many text messages ---ex lg - hvy st -- from reliable sources, were sent in the last hour.

Syd 19:38 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
The rally in Treasurys comes in part from investors switching out of stocks, says Man Financial's Andrew Brenner. The rate cut disappointed market players who'd expected bigger things, he said, and "the view is the Fed is behind the curve." He also points out that the maintenance of the discount window premium does not bode well for financials

USA BAY 19:36 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
MARIBOR,

Where do you plan to short eur/cad, tia

USA Zeus 19:35 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 18:59 GMT December 10, 2007
Mr Zeus, it appears you have an anti-fan club.

As long as the mASSes are losers this will always be the case. Unlike a democracy, I'm glad the majority of traders don't rule in the markets. LOL!

Happy Day!

Syd 19:34 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Consumer confidence out in Australia today probably on a negative due to the market conditions

Maribor 19:34 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD going to 0,977 before up again; EURAUD 1,65a and EURCAD 1,455 before up.

Hong Kong YH 19:33 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 19:28 GMT December 11, 2007
congratulaton! your USD/JPY, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY are finally make money. Still bearish on the above pairs? May I know your target?

USA BAY 19:31 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
19:17 US FED: Verbatim Text of December 11 FOMC Minutes Boston, December 11.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the< federal funds rate 25 basis points to 4-1/4 percent.
Incoming information suggests that economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks. Today s action, combined with the policy actions taken earlier, should help promote moderate growth over time.

Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; Timothy F. Geithner, Vice Chairman; Charles L. Evans; Thomas M. Hoenig; Donald L. Kohn; Randall S. Kroszner; Frederic S. Mishkin; William Poole; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against was Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred to lower the target for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at this meeting.

In a related action, the Board of Governors unanimously approved a 25-basis point decrease in the discount rate to 4-3/4 percent. In taking this action, the Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of New York, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and St. Louis.

Source: Federal Reserve

Syd 19:29 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Stocks fall after rate cut
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/071211/markets_stocks.html?.v=12

London NYAM 19:28 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
andras//great! cable shorts for christmas.

London NYAM 19:24 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
out of half usdjpy short from 111.79 at 111.10

Syd 19:24 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Fed rate decision may not trigger topside tests for NZD/USD as sellers loom large, says ANZ Bank; "expect plenty of selling interests around 0.7870 to make moves higher difficult."

Geneva 19:23 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Brisbane 19:22 GMT December 11, 2007

You can go back to sleep, just sleep with short euros.
Good night

Pecs Andras 19:23 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, your pound shorts (and mine) look better now. Hats off to you for your patience...

Brisbane 19:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Why is the Forex Calendar on this site wrong?
FOMC decision was 19:15 GMT not 18:15
I could have slept another hour.......

London NYAM 19:21 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
limit hit on short gbpjpy 226.68 for 2/3 possie. now i have a normal allotment.

Syd 19:20 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Fed Cuts Fed Funds Rate 25BPs; Cites Econ Uncertainty

FOMC: Rate Cut Should Help Promote Moderate Growth
FOMC:Energy, Commodities May Put Upward Pressure On Inflation
FOMC: Core Inflation Improved Modestly This Year,Risks Remain
FOMC Cites Deterioration In Financial Market Conditions
FOMC: Business, Consumer Spending Has Softened Some
FOMC: Housing Correction Has Intensified
Fed's Rosengren Voted For 0.50-Pt Rate Cut
FOMC Voted 9-1 For Fed Funds Rate Cut; Rosengren Dissented
Fed Cuts Discount Rate By 0.25-Pt To 4.75%
Fed Cuts Fed Funds Rate 0.25-Pt To 4.25%;Sees Econ Uncertainty

USA BAY 19:20 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
FED: FOMC Cuts Funds Rate 25 bps, DR by 25 bps

madrid mm 19:11 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
""Our Mission - The pursuit of the Bank's vision will express itself through leadership in the formulation, implementation and monitoring of policies and action plans for fighting inflation, stabilisation of the internal and external value of Zimbabwe's currency ..."" 8-)

http://www.rbz.co.zw/

London NYAM 19:07 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Market may blip higher but it is in a prime set up for a nasty nose dive. this should be fun. probably even better tomorrow.

madrid mm 19:05 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Ahe, yes. +/- 10 minutes more now ...tic tic tic

madrid mm 19:04 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
at the moment we have for the Central Bank Rates -
USD 4.50%
EUR 4.00%
JPY 0.50%
GBP 5.50%
CHF 2.75%
CAD 4.25%
AUD 6.75%
NZD 8.25%

Zimbabwe
Overnight
975.00%
Interbank
650.00%
TB - 91 Days
66.33%
http://www.rbz.co.zw/

8-(0 and yes it is true !!! LOL

Hong Kong Ahe 19:02 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 19:00 GMT - need to wait 15min more? TIA

madrid mm 19:00 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
in +/-15 minutes Ahe

Hong Kong Ahe 18:55 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
FOMC, the economic calender of GV is said to be released 18:15GMT. It is already announced or when?

St. Annaland Bob 18:55 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 18:23 GMT December 11, 2007

that cycles view has some chances, every time I see drunk man it feels like telling him: "chill off, the road to the white house is wide open for you"

Como Perrie 18:48 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
So market is apparently sat for a .25pct FED funds cut and .50 pct cut in the discount rate.

No idea about the wording, which might stay same most likely as previous, effect onto markets.

I'll keep quite, just watching some as am not expecting anything so special changes so soon and am welcoming a more relaxed market behaviour than usual - maybe some classic stops fishings and some tighter scalper activity if make It sense for them - I do prefer to watch another movie and relax.

gl

St. Annaland Bob 18:45 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:08 GMT December 11, 2007

did not hear anyone complaining about that CIA report, maybe there are complains but they never asked my juristic support.

madrid mm 18:41 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Patience and preparation serve to create an edge that helps build and conserve capital 8-).

CT Cris 18:39 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:58 GMT December 11, 2007
GBP.USD
======
BUY level if breaks 20485 tp 20530.
Sell level if breaks 20440 tp 20370.

Break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

mostly heading up with reverse.

=========
signal made very well in both sides today..and now it is heading 40-50 pips up..buy another if decline.

madrid mm 18:37 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
fwiw

The Federal Open Market Committee consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. Changes in monetary policy are now announced immediately after FOMC meetings. bloomberg.com

Next meeting is 28/29 january 2008
http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm#calendars

Geneva 18:23 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
We all know that debt is an excuse most western cuntrys pay there debt, forex its cycles! once its you and onnce its me, latly with Bush in power izs became once me and once me! But soon it will be over!

PAR 18:08 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
St Annaland / Thats the list. Is it not reliable ?

St. Annaland Bob 17:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   

PAR, do you mean this list?

PAR 17:44 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
You can not compared Switserland with a debt to GDP of 51% to Japan with a debt to GDP of 177 % . Japan is a subprime borrower .

Gen dk 17:35 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Geneva 17:25 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 17:22 GMT December 11, 2007

The swissi is like the JPY, why to hold it? I think medium term you can see a correction to 1.58/1.60. but switzerland losing the safe haven status. For the moment it is euroland that pay the bills. For how long?

St. Annaland Bob 17:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Geneva what about EUR/CHF at market as it is right now?

Geneva 17:12 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
A 10% rally in the US dollar, will still keep him weak!! it will benfit exoport and will help the Euro area as well, else a Europe massive slow down!

Gen dk 17:11 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 17:07 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
if FX and financial markets are so smart and everything is priced-in well in advance, then why the silence is so loud? ... then, going to the real big money indicator and that money is USD long since 7-10 days calling for 10% stronger USD against contis during 2008 ... so, storm in cup of tea (again) ???

Mumbai NS 16:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM / Tks but it has been a two way pleasure as it helps when you are doing reverse of what is happening it is gud to know that u are not alone hehehehhe cheers gl gt

London NYAM 16:49 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NS//Thanks, its been a pleasure riding the wave with you.
I know what you mean about 113.20, I am just eyeing the possibility that we will (after a decent correction to at least 110.30/70) possibly be getting a second wave up.

Mumbai NS 16:44 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM/ but gr8tly agree that u need to lighten ur possies on stgyen as they are leveraged otherwise it does not work in the long run gl gt

Mumbai NS 16:42 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM/ ok but on a broader picture i feel 113.2 caps upside on usdjpy for sometime now and so even if it has to be a spoil sport the impact shuld be minimal considering the fact that cbl can be extremely soft on fundamentals alone even if u ignore technicals. gl gt

London NYAM 16:29 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
cg//Good point. Tomorrows news could be the set-up for the wave 3 down to start. The UK is in a mess Im afraid and the rate outlook will have to maintain a negative tone. The killer here is the housing market. It needs to be bailed out soon (think its too late for that) otherwise it wont be inflation that will be the problem. IMHO. These factors will weigh on the pound until it hits a level that equalizes itself against the US situation. Around 2 is kind of like the middle ground now. Problem is of course it may overshoot.

NYC ET 16:28 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Someone must havr bought a boatload of eur/gbp

toronto Dr Unken Katt 16:25 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
yea i know tomik , but i tend to believe that moves in the diagonal tunnel are more significanto

saopaulo cg 16:24 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
nyam,

tomorrow we have unemployment rate in UK that should come below expectations. I wonder that BOE felt something bad about economic activity before lowering rates last week and unemployment with credit worries was one of that items. On the other hand, they talked about inflation and we saw very high numbers yesterday that sent the pound higher.

London CK 16:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London HC. No news that I can see. Market is thin ahead of Fed result

warsaw TOMi 16:19 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt 16:09

u forgot about horizontal 20525

London NYAM 16:17 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NS// I would like to see 225.60 break than i will be a little more sure of a serious rupture. For now i will be trailing a stop and keeping a really close watch on the pair. USDJPY could be the spoiler. It should help now but how far it will go is a tough call.

Stockholm za 16:13 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   

¤¤¤{ Disclaimer }¤¤¤
The FF accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third
parties in respect to what is been posted.
Please read the warning at the bottom of this page !!

London NYAM 16:13 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
is//You are probably right but i have taken on three times my normal leverage so i will have to lighten up a little. ;)

Mumbai NS 16:12 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM/ go thru ur charts once more guess 229.80 has held like a wall on two attempts gl gt

isr is 16:10 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM , hold all your short GBPJPY until further, further below, LOL...

toronto Dr Unken Katt 16:09 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
london hc

see this map >>

http://www.efixpuls.pl/cotton2/dokumenty/analizy/
dzienne/efixRD1_20071211.sxw-PIC-10000000000003200000025831415553.png

my plan was to short at the red arrow

London HC 16:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Anyone see any news on GBP? Getting whacked out of its crosses.

Hong Kong Ahe 16:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:17 GMT December 11, 2007
Hong Kong Ahe 13:12 GMT December 7, 2007
HK Kevin 12:51 GMT - Hi Kevin, in UK hours UK clear house Sell AUD BUY NZD. In Australia/Japan market, aussies and Japanese buy AUD sell NZD. NZD is serving as Pivot between AUD, GBP, USD and JPY. There is why you can see they are moving in weird-mode. GLGT....
Hong Kong Ahe, same action again today?....

Hi Kevin, as I am away from the monitor. Sorry for late reply. The move of GBPJPY is closely in same pattern of AUDNZD. They r playing same tactics, I think.

Mumbai NS 16:02 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Took some off the table at 227.58 rest holding for a south bound train gl gt

London NYAM 16:00 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
cable target is 2.0020/80 area and break below could get 1.9960/80 then possibly 1.9836.

I am revising up my cross target as it broke some levels on the upside and I am weary of USDJPY.

Mumbai NS 15:59 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM yep s/l was at 540 survived well cheers gl gt

Gen dk 15:58 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 15:57 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NS//Touch and go wasnt it? gtgl

JAK BOND 15:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

Can you tell again what is your target for gbpusd : )

I just recall the gbpjpy target 221 TIA

Mumbai NS 15:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Collected tiny cbl here rest open for ur targets mate hehhehehe gl gt

London NYAM 15:55 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Off loaded 1/5 of GBPUSD short at 2.0408.

Mumbai NS 15:53 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM / agree there with u that break opens downside gl gt

London NYAM 15:51 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NS//Hi there is at/l at 227.17 that would be a good break. FWIW.

Mumbai NS 15:49 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Time now to pyramid the collection in gbp/jpy thinking of starting from 227.5 to way down as much as it can gl gt

London NYAM 15:38 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
I would be very interested to see the statement more than the fairly well expected rate cut of 25 points. My hunch is that rather than offer the availability of further cuts down the line, this aspect of the statement changes to a more hawkish stance. I wonder also if the talk will be about giving the Paulson plan time to work. I don't think equities or carry traders will like that.

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:31 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
I am off
see u later

be carefull with gbp/jpy at 227.92 just now. thats bottom tgt.

Gen dk 15:26 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:25 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
toronto Dr Unken Katt

I am fine. I seldom here caused by my core activity.
:-)

toronto Dr Unken Katt 15:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas, long time no see
how have u been??

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:19 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Just my opinion about FOMC.
although The Fed interest rate be predicted will reduce 50 bps, I think capital flight from US will happened but just temporary. If The Fed cut rate 50 bps that policy is the key for USD prospect in the future. Of course USD prospect will be good. Capital flight mus be warned for us here as USD selling action.
Especially about GBP/USD although still under pressure by cross rate GBP/USD, but technically gbp/usd chart still run on bullish pattern. There are not yet strong resistant be touched , especially 2.0533 or 2.0566. I think USD bullish will run from there.
be carefull my friends....

Indonesia-Solo Raden Mas 15:12 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
hello forum.. long time no joint here.
hope all here are fine always . :-)

London NYAM 15:10 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
jp//youre welcome. You could pretty well lower your stop to above today's high now FWIW (Im sure you have already thought of that).

ldn jp 15:00 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:59 GMT December 11, 2007

Maribor 12:53 GMT December 11, 2007

Thanks to both..........jp

Como Perrie 14:55 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Stay safe, stay flat, stay home.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/10/AR2007121001630.html?hpid=topnews

London NYAM 14:26 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
If 111.54 breaks (and i think it will) the dam should break.

HK Kevin 14:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Global-View GVI 14:12 GMT, if you tell my wife I am losing money this month, I would have troube to stay in the market.

HK Kevin 14:17 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 13:12 GMT December 7, 2007
HK Kevin 12:51 GMT - Hi Kevin, in UK hours UK clear house Sell AUD BUY NZD. In Australia/Japan market, aussies and Japanese buy AUD sell NZD. NZD is serving as Pivot between AUD, GBP, USD and JPY. There is why you can see they are moving in weird-mode. GLGT

Hong Kong Ahe, same action again today?

Global-View GVI 14:12 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
More from GVI:

Edi Geo 14:07 GMT December 11, 2007
If you told me how the market was reacting, I would have trouble making money...beat that!

Gen dk 14:07 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 14:07 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Probably by selling the fact?
is//something like that.

Global-View GVI 14:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
As posted on GVI

GVI Jay 13:59 GMT December 11, 2007
This sums it up:

From a friend:

If you told me the Fed decision in advance I would have trouble predicting how the market will react.

London NYAM 13:44 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
is//Similar bias here. Cable is being very tricky with this triangle. It really should start its next phase down soon. Typical beast-like behaviour.

isr is 13:39 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
though i think i am bias for a surprise on the $...and still holding toght those GBPJPY!!!Patience is the key to paradise!!!

isr is 13:37 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
yes. i am watching it

London NYAM 13:36 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
is//If it breaks back above 1.4701 before hitting a new intraday low then you are probably right.

isr is 13:32 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
just got caught in sucker rally selling EURUSD at 1.4660....well

Jerusalem ML 13:18 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
HI All

Tip of the day -

SELL GBP/USD around 2.0550

Target 2.0375
good luck

Hong Kong Qindex 13:02 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges are :-


... 2.0376 - 2.0399 // 2.0423* - 2.0446 - [2.0469] - 2.0493 - 2.0516* // 2.0539 - 2.0562 ...

London NYAM 12:59 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Maribor//I dont usually trade this pair but I was impressed by your last two calls so ive been watching it. jp// FWIW just above the 50% retrace at 2.3421 might be a decent stop level.

Gen dk 12:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Maribor 12:55 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Thanks, NYAM.

Maribor 12:53 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
ldn jp 11:51 GMT December 11, 2007

Usualy do not use mechanical stops, but regulate risk using low leverage. Maybe computers, running show, are unforgiven and want 2,338 printed(last time it was 21 pips less). I will reconsider later if I am wrong.

EU theEUROqueen 12:46 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
happy day Bob!
im trading the 1,44-1,49 range till the end of this year ..

and happy xmas for u and all the traders on the global-view wave
happy trade

London NYAM 12:42 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 2.3270 here looks like a pattern ompletion to sell GBPCHF.

St. Annaland Bob 12:34 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
theEUROqueen-- will you be a buyer @ 14300 area?

EU theEUROqueen 12:21 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Shoudl Dr:Ben give as for the Xmas time a 0,5 cut..?!!! it will be so nice from him..

happy trade

CT Cris 12:10 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:58 GMT December 11, 2007
GBP.USD
======
BUY level if breaks 20485 tp 20530.
Sell level if breaks 20440 tp 20370.

Break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

mostly heading up with reverse.
===========
pls note how the market heading up to 2.0520 then reverse
to 20450..then heading up....

madrid mm 12:09 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Two suicide bombings rocked the Algerian capital, Algiers, killing 36 people, witnesses and hospital officials said. The total killed in both attacks was 60, Sky News said, while the Associated Press put the figure at 45.

Como Perrie 12:01 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke will likely cut 1/4, even if the market has clearly priced for a higher cut. I'll just watch coupla movies and wait the crazyness from the lottery bets we are currently seeing.

Such a situation has a previous history record similarity just in the years 1931-33, so most players have not experience or knowledge to talk about It in clear manners imvho, this as speculation and distorted market values from commodities, to houses, to food and oil as to inflation and interest rates reigns.

I do also doubt FED funds to change some into the problmatic home values dropping at a rate of some 20-30 pct yearly, which drags then down onto subprime exposures and overlending. Overall estimates to save the whole with current central bankes methodologies might take maybe 5 to 10 years, in between an Iran invasion or anything even worser could not be excluded.

IIIWW is looming imvho

London NYAM 12:00 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Yes and EURGBP isnt doing my short stratagy any favours. Meanwhile EURUSD is looking like a great reversal developing.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:55 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : It is still a range trading as long as the market is trading below the barriers at 112.38 // 112.68.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:52 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 11:27 GMT - GBP/USD : It is working on the barrier at 2.0466 // 2.0470. We have to wait and see. The market momentum is stll very strong.

ldn jp 11:51 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 08:31 GMT December 11, 2007
London jp - according to my analysis time to sell GBPCHF and take profit around 2,21...expected time frame 2 weeks...

What stop loss do you have on this Maribor? Thanks....

London NYAM 11:27 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q it should retreat all the way back to 2.0030/60 OR 1.9960/90 now (with any luck). Break clause 2.0525/35

saloniko nk 11:22 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Good Morning...

shanghai bc 23:38 GMT December 10, 2007

Many European than ever will enjoy, the snow New York at low cost...for Christmas and a happy New Year!

Me i will enjoy may be a Grand Cherokee...lol!

nk

Hong Kong Qindex 11:20 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is retreating back to 2.0423.

London NYAM 11:11 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
FT is full of articles on weak dollar "problem."

ANALYSIS: Currencies, just like clergy, are guided by a mysterious hand
Strange as it might seem, there is much in common between exchange rates and the Bishop of Southwark after the prominent
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c4c9c0f0-a78a-11dc-a25a-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Dec 11 2007, By Chris Giles, Financial Times ANALYSIS: Adjustment or affliction?
People love to complain about the dollar. Five years ago, angst surrounded the greenback's strength and the ever-rising US
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6a2351a-a789-11dc-a25a-0000779fd2ac.html

Geneva 10:57 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 10:53 GMT December 11, 2007

I will buy dollars, just beacause NO body want him! I think more then all the bad news are already priced in. when bad numbers will come else where and the fed will be done on rate cut, the big rally will start with a vengence!

GENEVA DS 10:53 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
in the financial mess we are actually , it becomes now even more clear that ALL INTEREST RATES in this world will be at ZERO like JAPAN very soon... which currency will be bought then ??? guess .... I think best to have are AUD and XAU, XAG..... good luck

CT Cris 10:38 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:08 GMT December 11, 2007
20 spicy pips if buy usd.cad now 10080
======
bought another @ 10065. exited both 10082.

The Netherlands Purk 10:34 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Well finally closed the last position short in e/u. I did not add at 14740 btw. Now flat and waiting for little patterns in patterns. 14841 to break seems far but of course not impossible. 14569 is still in the sniff radar.
Biggest gain of the last 4 years: being flat before FOMC thingy.

Geneva 10:29 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
It will not take long that europe will be in much worst situation then the US! ECB to cut 0.50 next year.

Makassar Alimin 10:25 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:11 GMT December 11, 2007

what's Kampo's next target? Dow 14k, usdjpy 115, eurjpy 169?

madrid mm 10:15 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:11 GMT December 11, 2007
And KAMPO is the godfather of all SWF
8-)


Isr,
Could be. 8-)

madrid mm 10:12 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Do you guys have twins ? because i see double on most of your post !!!! And i did not drink alcohol so far !!

8-)

PAR 10:11 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Hearing Libya planning substantial investment a in big European bank after the bank announces subprime losses . Lol.

HK RF@ 10:11 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
It is clear for me that since Dec. 5, selling yen against US$ is well supported, as if some elements out there in the market are so convinced in being correct in doing so. Fundamentals may be added later to decorate that price move.

isr is 10:09 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
madrid- Gadaffi has now the bucks to pay back to the US and surely they will spend in US Dollars...not to be surprised...
NYAM- It might just hold for us...lets see

NY Rob 10:09 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
expecting Dow to hit 14k after FOMC together with jpy weakness across the board today eurjpy should find no problem hitting 166

madrid mm 10:05 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
don t worry PAR, SWF are popping up 8-)

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Libya has $100 billion set aside to buy foreign assets and $155 billion to spend on local projects such as housing, energy, and communications, as record oil prices swell its income, Prime Minister Baghdadi Mahmudi said.

The more the merrier 8-)

PAR 10:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Despite all the positive German economic numbers and the ECB superupbeat comments on the economy German ZEW drop to lowest level since ... 1993 .

HK RF@ 10:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 07:40 GMT December 11, 2007

More accurate that range is a target I expect to reach within few days.

London NYAM 09:50 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
is//Well that should be okay. frankly if we havent topped on gbpusd here (2.0519) and usdjpy (112.13 although thats not as clear) then it wont matter we both will get hit.

PAR 09:44 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
With all the positive economic numbers from Germany and the upbeat comments from the ECB on the German economy the december ZEW will as did the IFO unexpectedly show a big improvement .

Gen dk 09:44 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

isr is 09:42 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM; I am still at 230.3 stop on shorts of GBPJPY? Is that level good?

PAR 09:19 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Selling your bank shares to a sovereign wealth fund is also a form of nationalisation , so why not as the Uk is planning with Northern Rock do it directly instead of indirectly .

Gen dk 09:14 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ldn jp 09:11 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 08:31 GMT December 11, 2007

I see now - thank you for explanation..... jp

Maribor 08:31 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London jp - according to my analysis time to sell GBPCHF and take profit around 2,21...expected time frame 2 weeks...

ldn jp 08:27 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 08:08 GMT December 11, 2007
GBPCHF turning point crossed at 2,313...going down again to finish business at 2,21.

Sorry not sure what you mean - could you expand a little........

madrid mm 08:26 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Isn t it gr8 to be head of a large SWF at the moment ? 8-) And where did these people at top banks learn about money management ? They should all go to GS for a crash course
LOL

Fintag.com
As we have seen with UBS. They write down a tenner and issue convertibles to unknowns in the far east.
Actually, the Singapore Government move is more proof that Switzerland is a dying nation. Singapore is the new old Switzerland. No questions asked. Actually, Panama is the place to go where no questions are asked.

The guardian says " An even bigger hole in the big Swiss cheese " guardian.co.uk/!

London NYAM 08:12 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
shhhhh. dont tell. stops are at 2.0525/2.0595 230.95

Maribor 08:08 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
GBPCHF turning point crossed at 2,313...going down again to finish business at 2,21.

Mumbai NS 08:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM are u at 230.7 for stops gl gt

JAK BOND 08:02 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM

May I know where do you put your stop loss for the gbpusd TIA

London NYAM 07:59 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Well final shorts for GBPUSD and gbpjpy 2.0510 and 229.27. now stops are all thats left for these.

Syd 07:44 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Japan's point man on currency policy said Tuesday that exporters in his country seem comfortable with the yen's current level, suggesting that Japanese authorities aren't too concerned about recent swings in the foreign exchange market.

"Japanese companies have their own exchange rate to calculate their income report, and I think their assumption is around Y110-Y115, so (at) current levels they don't feel much impact," Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Naoyuki Shinohara told Dow Jones Newswires.

Shinohara's comments come as the Japanese yen has remained near multiyear highs again the greenback, reaching almost 107 against the U.S. dollar last month before trading above 111 in recent days.
As far as we know at this moment, the economic numbers that are coming out of the U.S. are not that bad," he said. "It is interesting that U.S. economic figures are showing strong signs - stronger than expected."

Still, he said improved consumer sentiment is important to avoid further turbulence in the U.S. housing market.

"If you look at the market sentiment surveys, they are getting weaker," he said.

If the U.S. economy does take a turn for the worse, Shinohara said Japan will feel a noticable impact

HK Kevin 07:40 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
HK RF@ 06:41 GMT December 11, 2007
Yen likes to range in the coming few days [113.40,113.50]. Typo? if not what is the range.

Syd 07:11 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
RBA Stevens: Financial Market Woes To Help Contain Inflation

CT Cris 07:08 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
20 spicy pips if buy usd.cad now 10080

madrid mm 06:47 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
* Japan MoF Shinohara - View on yuan unchanged, FX should reflect fundamentals.
* EcoMin Ota announces package to aid small firms and low-income households copewith higher fuel prices.

* PBOC Gov Zhou - Must look at currency basket and not just USD in setting CNYvalue, promises to keep boosting CNY flexibility in "08, FX policy changesneeded to reach international payments balance - DowJones.

Currency Summaries
[USD/JPY] and JPY crosses did not do a whole lot today in Asia, mostly tradingtight ranges ahead of the US FOMC interest rate decision later tonight. JPY doeslook primed to be the funding currency of choice for year-end carry tradesshould current stock market buoyancy last and if there are no major negativesurprises in the Fed announcement. USD/JPY traded a 111.65-95 range. Offers fromoption players remain ahead of 112.00 barriers. Japanese exporter offers trailup above to 112.50. Stops are eyed above 112.00 and 112.50 and below 111.00.

[EUR/JPY] traded a 164.40-67 range. Stops are eyed above 165.00 and below164.00. Other ranges were 98.95-99.35 for [AUD/JPY], 87.25-70 for [NZD/JPY] and228.60-229.00 for GBP/JPY. These latter three looked to be the best bid withJapanese retail investor and margin player interest strong again. GBP/JPY stopsare eyed above 229.20, 229.50 and 230.00.

[EUR/USD] opened in Asia at 1.4715 after hawkish comments from ECB Stark andbroad USD weakness pushed it comfortably above 1.4700 overnight. It edged downto 1.4705 when USD/JPY made a run towards 112.00 early but bids ahead of 1.4700underpinned EUR/USD. It later drifted higher later on CTA buying and in theabsence of other flows. The high was 1.4730. Offers remain at 1.4735 but stopsare noted above 1.4740. More offers are seen from 1.4750 to 1.4775. Bids areseen at 1.4700, 1.4680, 1.4660 and 1.4635.

Other Asset Markets

[The Nikkei] rose early from 15,972.45 after the open to 16,075.61, managing tohold on to most of its gains during the session. It closed at 16,044.72, up120.33 points or 0.76% on the day. [TOPIX] closed at 1567.02, up 8.51 or 0.55%.

Sentiment is up after news late in the Asian day yesterday that two strategicinvestors (GSIC and a Middle East investor) would talk large stakes in UBS,effectively off-setting the bank"s subprime losses. Most other bourses in theregion were also mostly higher.

HK RF@ 06:41 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Yen likes to range in the coming few days [113.40,113.50]. Above that, the way to the salvation for stubborn-forex-erring housewives still hanging with despair on high brances is open.

madrid mm 06:35 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
hello and GM FX Jedi,

It'sssssssssssssssssssss FOMC day !!!!!!

Please make sure there is enough "power" in your FX lightsaber for dueling . 8-)

CT Cris 06:21 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
we may have also spicy pips during peak hours of trading.

CT Cris 05:58 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
GBP.USD
======
BUY level if breaks 20485 tp 20530.
Sell level if breaks 20440 tp 20370.

Break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

mostly heading up with reverse.

Mumbai NS 05:34 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud day to u what thots on usdjpy sir gl gt

Syd 04:44 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
December Nikkei 225 futures trim gains and briefly touch 15970. Some hedge selling kicking in due to worries that stock markets may fall when trading cues become exhausted after FOMC meeting in U.S., says official at local brokerage

Syd 04:41 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Australian business confidence and conditions slumped in November as the second wave of a global credit crunch took hold, and U.S. subprime related writedowns by Wall Street firms mounted, according to a survey by the National Australia Bank.

dc CB 04:31 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
San Francisco Chronicle
MORTGAGE MELTDOWN
Interest rate 'freeze' - the real story is fraud
Bankers pay lip service to families while scurrying to avert suits, prison.

The ticking time bomb in the U.S. banking system is not resetting subprime mortgage rates. The real problem is the contractual ability of investors in mortgage bonds to require banks to buy back the loans at face value if there was fraud in the origination process.
And, to be sure, fraud is everywhere. It's in the loan application documents, and it's in the appraisals. There are e-mails and memos floating around showing that many people in banks, investment banks and appraisal companies - all the way up to senior management - knew about it.
I can hear the hum of shredders working overtime, and maybe that is the new "hot" industry to invest in. There are lots of people who would like to muzzle subpoena-happy New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to buy time and make this all go away. Cuomo is just inches from getting what he needs to start putting a lot of people in prison. I bet some people are trying right now to make him an offer "he can't refuse."

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/12/09/IN5BTNJ2V.DTL

Syd 04:15 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
WSJ(12/11) UBS's Subprime Hit Deepens Credit Worries
UBS AG became one of the biggest casualties of the U.S. subprime-mortgage meltdown yesterday, announcing that it would take a $10 billion write-down and sell a chunk of itself to the government investment arm of Singapore and an unnamed Middle Eastern investor.

The disclosures stoked anxiety about potential losses lurking on the books of other banks. That UBS, long known as a conservative lender, could take such a financial hit suggests that the wave of industry write-downs, which so far total about $50 billion, may be far from over.
In recent weeks, UBS began using a more conservative method for valuing complex debt securities tied to U.S. subprime mortgages. As a result, the bank said it might record a net loss for the year. The "ultimate value of our subprime holdings . . . remains unknowable," the bank said yesterday.
Using computer models to figure out how much such securities are worth is an inexact science. November mortgage data showed that mortgage delinquencies and defaults were increasing, which contributed to UBS's decision to take a large write-down.

Syd 04:11 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex thank you very much

Hong Kong Qindex 04:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : the market is going to consolidate between 0.8850 - 0.8887. A projected resistant range is expected at 0.8928 - 0.8948. A projected supporting level is located at 0.8797 - 0.8801.

Mumbai NS 03:55 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 02:01 GMT December 11, 2007

Hi there infact till y'day i was also convinced on 164.85 but today after making a fresh view wuld agree that 165.4 needs to brk on closing to do away with the bearish outlook on euryen and i think we need to watch out the closing carefully before concluding in an iffy gud luck gl gt

Syd 03:54 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
WSJ looks at how the rising Euro is impacting the decisions of European companies - WSJ
- The strength of the Euro is causing some companies to shift their manufacturing operations to the US, along with shifting more of their costs into dollars.

Syd 03:47 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
NZ Nov House Data Mixed; Still Points Down - ASB

Syd 03:40 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
While China's November imports rose faster than expected (+25.3% vs 21.3% expected), Beijing's tightening measures could weigh on import growth ahead, Goldman Sachs says, adding "the current strength of import growth is unlikely to be sustained." Comments show how Beijing, in trying to tighten liquidity through more aggressive policy, may instead keep trade surplus fat (November $26.28 billion vs $27.05 billion in October), as slower domestic demand restrains imports; this in turn could inject more liquidity into banking system, fueling calls for faster yuan rise

Jay Mumbai 03:33 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
BC. If one is holidaying, US is an attractive desitnation as you now get more Dollars for same amt. of home ccy. But if one is migrating and, makes sense to avoid US as your repatriation will be lower and lower in days to come. GL & GT.

Syd 03:05 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Tricky market got to be careful not left high and dry once the funds finish buying

Syd 03:04 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY falls as short-term non-Japan option players, who were buying pair to touch 112, now selling as exporter orders above large, says senior interbank dealer at major Japan bank

Syd 03:03 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Paris ib 03:01 Dont have the time of it , its on CNBC squawk just saying this evening having a chat

austin mw 02:58 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Quants See 40% Of Assets Go
12-10-2007 - Source: Hedge Fund Daily

When GMN Capital announced it was closing its quant fund recently, after a lousy August and losing more than half of its assets, the San Francisco firm may not have realized at the time it was in good company. Financial Times reports that quantitative hedge funds, such as GMN and big-loser AQR Capital Management, collectively may have lost more than 40% of their assets in the past six months. Some of it is attributed to poor performance beginning in August – GMN lost 19% and AQR reportedly has fallen nearly 12% this year thus far – but also deleveraging and investor defections have contributed to the decline in assets, which by some estimates was about $500 billion before summer trouble began. According to FT, some quant devotees say they were unaware of the growing popularity of these funds and that so many herded into the same investments. The paper added that investors using quants “opportunistically” have withdrawn from them altogether – which may be good news. With fewer investors and returns inching up again, quants may see better days ahead. Quant funds are also making adjustments after their mathematical models didn’t

add up to healthy returns, Associated Press reports, and are avoiding using the models in certain sectors – such as financial services – where they haven’t been able to assess risks properly. “Among hard core quants,” Matthew Rothman, who heads global quants at Lehman Brothers, told AP, “that is unusual.” Recent events have prompted quants to re-evaluate the value of their approaches and realize, maybe for the first time, that one model doesn’t fit all.

Syd 02:56 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
RBA governor Stevens’ speech this evening to The Sydney Institute.

Syd 02:40 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Goldman Sachs expects China's central bank to respond to the accelerated CPI data with additional tightening, including strict control on bank lending, further withdrawal of liquidity, 1 more rate hike before year-end, faster pace of currency appreciation in 2008. Inflation rose further to 6.9% in November vs 6.5% in October, market concensus of 6.5%, on higher pork prices. Expects CPI inflation to remain sticky, though December reading likely to show some softness on high base effects

Rye, NY et 02:36 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 02:01 GMT December 11, 2007
It's an intra-day pivot, according to my own set of formulas.
(Hourly stochs are also very high)
If it reaches your level, I would certainly agree that that's bullish...
The market will tell us by the NY open...
Good trades...

Mtl JP 02:26 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 22:15 / excellent piece on tinyurl and view to be heeded / still profited from, just not as rich short picking anymore in view of Syd 02:06 linked piece :-(

Syd 02:06 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Washington Mutual to Take Writedown, Slash Dividend
Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc., the biggest U.S. savings and loan, will write down the value of its home lending unit by $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter and cut about 6 percent of its workforce as mortgage-market losses increase.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNUz6NmbYZCQ&refer=home

USA BAY 02:01 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
RYE NY,

HI, Agree the bearish outlook for e/j, but why 164.87, I have 165.30 as a level to break the bearish view. tia

Syd 01:59 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Bank of America Corp Freezes $12B money market fund for Institutional investors - CNBC

Syd 01:26 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
China PBOC Zhou: Need To Watch For Possible Lending Surge
PBOC:Trade Surplus Growth Higher Than Expected In Recent

Syd 01:09 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
EU-US showdown with Russia over Kosovo A Cold War-style stand-off over the future of Kosovo loomed last night as the European Union looked ready to join the United States in defying Russia and Serbia over independence for the breakaway Balkan province.
As EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels headed for "unity" in backing Kosovo's independence, Russia gave warning that such a move would spark "a chain reaction" of instability across the Balkans and beyond.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=
ZF11YRB113JYLQFIQMGCFGGAVCBQUIV0?xml=/news/2007/12/11/wkosovo111.xml

Syd 00:42 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Australian business confidence, conditions slumped in November as second wave of global credit crunch dampened activity, according to NAB survey. Further RBA rate hike in Feb now a line-ball call, GDP growth expected to slow to 3.25% in 2008 from 4.3% now. NAB says business conditions index fell 5 points to +15 points in November; business confidence index fell 3 points to +6 points with interest rate sensitive sectors of economy reporting biggest declines. NAB expects RBA to be cutting interest rates by end-2008

Syd 00:37 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Australian business confidence and conditions slumped in November as the second wave of a global credit crunch took hold, and U.S. subprime related writedowns by Wall Street firms mounted, according to a survey by the National Australia Bank. further rise in the Reserve Bank of Australia's official cash rate target in February is now a line-ball call and economic growth in 2008 is set to slow to a modest 3.25%, well down from the current pace of 4.3%.

Rye, NY et 00:31 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Daily High could already be in. If so, I'd look for the upper 162.00s.
My stop is the point to watch. If it's taken, but holds under 164.87, then shorts will be good. If 164.87 breaks, then it will probably be an up day. I doubt that, but.... All in mvho...GL/GT

warsaw TOMi 00:17 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
rye, when it gets to 16410 will sell there myself:)
ht

Gen dk 00:16 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Rye, NY et 00:14 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
fwiw....Short Eur/Jpy 164.60;cut 164.70; take 164.10

nj jf 00:10 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
South, there can never be enough real experience posting on the forum so people who browse but dont post see what this is all about - tks for sharing. gt

Syd 00:08 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Currency markets will keep a close eye on RBA Governor Stevens' Speech on Tuesday night. RBA Deputy Governor Battellino's will speak on Wednesday. These speeches take on a greater significance after the confusion that was caused by last week's change in communication policy. After last week's rate decision, the RBA published a statement explaining why it left interest rates on hold (normally the bank would not comment after leaving rates unchanged; these changes are being made to improve transparency). The central bank also released minutes from its November meeting. The increased transparency follows talks between RBA Governor Stevens with new Treasurer Wayne Swan two weeks ago.
The consensus is emerging that the main risk to Australia's economic outlook is a slowdown in Asia (the U.S. could pull Australia down, and it is expected to do so via Australia's key Asian export destinations. Also, a U.S. slowdown could dent commodity prices).

warsaw TOMi 00:06 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
if I may drop a line(shud really be on help forum), anyway, don't trade money, just pips,
though collect certain amount of money at the end of each calendar month.when you withdraw and you are happy with it,continue trading, when there is nothing left to withdraw, get a job.

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:05 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
tnx et from NY!

Rye, NY et 00:04 GMT December 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 23:24 GMT December 10, 2007
I don't show any gaps. The Mon am. gap was filled. GL/GT