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Forex Forum Archive for 12/13/2007

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austin mw 23:48 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Citigroup Inc. will bail out its seven structured investment vehicles, bringing $58 billion of debt onto its balance sheet in the biggest move yet by a bank to rescue the failing funds.

GVI john 23:29 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
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Syd 23:21 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
NZ 3Q Manufacturing Sales Slump Likely A Drag On GDP

ASIA Xau-lin 23:17 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Geneva, I like your view...!

My bullish view/portfolio for 2008:

...long USD, soft and PM cmdts, LA and SEA stocks, russia and Emerg. europ., utilities, financials, construtcion, infrasctruters, nikkei, climate change, new resources, responsability...

Mtl JP 22:58 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
s/b "as an insider"

Mtl JP 22:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
isr is 20:29 / I don' t want to risk much. Their new chief (Pandit) said he is "focusing on three very important things. One is productivity, two, to make sure our businesses are positioned for the future and three to make sure that we have our people, our talent are developed correctly for the businesses of the future." (pbs) By productivity Pandit, as an outsider and a numbers man, in my interpretation, means he is counting how many bodies he will be throwing out as he "take an objective and a dispassionate look at every one of our businesses, make one each one of them is positioned for the future individually and collectively." This kind of line of action thinking ("Productivity is what leads to profitability. Profitability leads to return") is certainly not reflective of a generally rose coloured boyant banking market forcast, quiet the contrary.

This is the kind of thing the banks need and must go through. Some will not lighten the ballast fast enough, wont turn the ship's direction around fast enough and will hit rocks and flaunder. It is necessary and it is inevitable. citi, in my estimate, will be a buy when there will be signs of Pandit about to leave (i.e. his job done)

Syd 22:20 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
NZ 3Q Manufacturing Sales Slump 2.1%; Dairy, Meat Mfg Down


WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--New Zealand's manufacturing sales fell sharply in the third quarter, pushed down by a significant decrease in meat and dairy-product manufacturing, official data published Friday showed.

Seasonally-adjusted manufacturing sales fell 2.1% from the second quarter, when they were up 1.7%, Statistics New Zealand said.

"The manufacturing sales trend has flattened in the past year, since the September 2006 quarter," the statistics bureau said in a statement.

The flattening trend followed a period of growth between the second quarter of 2003 and third quarter of last year of 16.1% in total, the bureau said.

In the third quarter, meat and dairy industry manufacturing fell 6% on the quarter, the largest fall since the second quarter of 2005.

When price effects are removed, total manufacturing sales fell even further, down 4.2% in the third quarter from the second.

The manufacturing data are seen by economists as the final indicator to the third-quarter gross domestic product report, due Dec. 21. The weak results suggest downside risks to the consensus forecast.



Los Angeles cvs 22:15 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Check out these dead on predictions...unbelievable
http://blog.bpcminc.com

Syd 22:07 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
The US PPI surged 3.2% in November, the fastest pace in 34 years, as a result of the flying costs for fuel, while the core PPI rose 0.4%. Retail sales expanded 1.2% in November.

saopaulo cg 21:48 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
today at dailyfx.com:

Traders Positioning Signals a Major Sell Off in the Sterling Before the End of the Year

According to the censored execution desk data on the positioning of more than 25.000 retail traders, 51% of traders are long GBPUSD (long to short ratio is 1.04). Last week, the ratio was at -1.55 as 61% of open positions were short. Moreover, since last week, the majority of traders have been aggressively buying GBPUSD (long positions are up by 56.2%). In the past, when retail was long and buying more, the GBPUSD has sold off in the following days. The SSI gives us a STRONG SIGNAL TO SELL GBPUSD.


Geneva 21:46 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS 21:38 GMT December 13, 2007

You can't rull out a last test of 1.50/3???.
I think we topped, just because every body wait for 1.50. It is
like every body wait for euro at 0.79!!!. on the chart you had it but it didnt made it.

I strongly believe next year we will have a very nice rally.

London NYAM 21:41 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
BAY// EURGBP Im in and out but still have a core long. Im looking to add as it dips here.
GBPCHF// soon dailies it looks like a sell towards sub 2.26. Hourlies sell on a break of 2.3229 with adds on a bounce but short time frames also look pretty bearish to me stop still at 2.3336 but it looks like its running out of steam.

Geneva//Theres only so much the Fed can do before you start getting people carting around dollars in wheelbarrows like in the Weimar republic. Hey maybe they can pump some more hot air into the debt riddled consumer for 2008 but theyre going to need to be bailed out by some Big SWF some day otherwise Como's WWIII really is on the cards.

pd cumino 21:41 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
next year (sry)

pd cumino 21:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS 21:38 GMT December 13, 2007
Do you see a big reversal in USD sooner or later this year?

Geneva DS 21:38 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Geneva.... do agree with your comments.... this is all only media hype this recession stuff... in my view, we are heading into very glourious times... the boom in commodities and in China and India will be excellent for world economies... Banks eventually will have to lower some dividends ... but that is already old news... currencies , this is another story... which currency will fly ... we will see, eventually we still will have some of the same than last 4 years .... before big time reversal in USD-fortunes.... but we cannot rule out a spike in EURO ... before the big sell off begins... good luck...

USA BAY 21:29 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Could you kindly comment on gbp/chf. tia

Auckland JJ 21:29 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hi Syd, what are your views for the NZ/US and AUS/US for the next 24hrs, would welcomes anyones comments, thanks and a very merry Christmas to all.

USA BAY 21:20 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
LONDON NYAM,

Are you still in eur/gbp long??

Geneva 21:15 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 21:11 GMT December 13, 2007

All hotels are full, flights are full, malls are full, peoples shop every where..... what a recession???. The weak dollar and low intrest rate will create a boom next year!
The housing is still limited to subprime. so what? couple of banks lossing money, they made a lot last years.

It's a media recission.

USA BAY 21:13 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   


I have to agree with Geneva, recession risk is very low in 2008.

London NYAM 21:11 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Geneva// considering you havent seen 94 dollar crude before that would be an accurate statement with perhaps too few data points.
Recession in consumption high
but moderated in other sectors.

pd cumino 21:09 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Geneva 21:07 GMT December 13, 2007
Ty

Geneva 21:07 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 21:04 GMT December 13, 2007

Europe will be in recession before the US, I think the risk in very low. for the moment the crises is very limited .
I never saw a recession with 94$ crude oil!

pd cumino 21:05 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Sry read 2008

pd cumino 21:04 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
It would be interesting to know (at least for me) the opinions about the odds of a US recession in 2007. To say: low, medium, high

Kaunas DP 21:03 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 20:44 GMT December 13, 2007

under forex "language" hat would be based on PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN :)

Geneva 20:51 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Today PPI numbers show us that the weak dollar policy create
High inflation and INCREASE the trade deficit as crude oil is higher
Because of weak dollar!

This is exactly opposite of what the US administration was hoping…..

Now they need a strong dollar to fight Inflation and lower the deficit!!!!.

isr jweb 20:44 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
kaunas - you serious? and thats based on what? fundamentals? carry trade? charts? or just pure love for the gracious queen?

i mean to say i love extreme views, but wouldnt it nice if it came with some sort of an explanation?

Kaunas DP 20:39 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Trade for December 2007 (time frame for TP till year end): GBP/USD - BUY 2.0394 SL 2.0365 TP 2.0830 - GL

isr is 20:29 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
JP, u serious about ...citi target sub $10, at which point it may be a good start to accumulate?????

PAR 19:15 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Japanese december Tankan will show dramatic decline due to permanent mismanagement of the Japanese economy by LDP and BOJ .

Los Angeles - bernie 19:01 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris -- nice touch! thanks for sharing

CT Cris 18:41 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
the last spicy 15-20 pips..i hope it was delicous..good night to all.

Maribor 18:35 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 18:18 GMT December 13, 2007

My turn point for citi is 25.

Maribor 18:30 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:52 GMT December 13, 2007

As EURAUD is now ~1,67 and next turning point is 1,738, buy now and give limit order somewhere around ~1,736. Method is not precise, is slow, but it works...After that wait...should come there in ~2 weeks. Usualy turn point is exceeded, but last time I merely close short at 1,6500 and have to buy long higher.

CT Cris 18:29 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 18:00 GMT December 13, 2007
the last 15-20 pips by sell gbp.usd above 2.0400..sell another if rise.
====
sold 20398 exited 20384.

Mtl JP 18:18 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 17:59 / It is not time yet to gallop into buying such stocks as citigroup (C: currently approx $30). In fact the whole bank index can still be confortably shorted. citi target sub $10, at which point it may be a good start to accumulate.

CT Cris 18:00 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
the last 15-20 pips by sell gbp.usd above 2.0400..sell another if rise.

Syd 17:59 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Equity markets could be underestimating the damage the credit crisis is doing to financial institutions, while investment-grade companies could see an increase in default risk in 2008 before their sub-investment-grade counterparts, Barclays Capital said Thursday.

Head of Credit Strategy Robert McAdie said equity markets were pricing around $405 billion of write-downs in market capitalization at financial institutions.

But with credit spreads at 2001 levels - and wider in the case of some financial institutions - credit markets are arguably pricing in a figure closer to $500 billion.

McAdie said at the launch of Barclays Capital's 2008 Global Outlook in London that measures announced this week by several central banks to ease money-market liquidity is "an enormous step in the right direction," but that they didn't solve the problem of banks needing to raise more capital.

As a result, 2008 could see consolidation in the financial sector, and even closures at institutions that can't attract enough new equity and aren't taken over. Bank lending standards are tightening across the board, although an increase in defaults would depend heavily on economic growth.

However, while tighter credit conditions might be expected to hit sub-investment-grade borrowers first, Barclays Capital sees default risk in the first half of 2008 among investment-grade borrowers.

McAdie said this was because credit market stresses were being felt most severely among financial institutions, homebuilders and other companies closely related to the construction industry, which tend to be investment grade.

High-yield defaults would more likely be a feature of the second half of 2008. If a recession is avoided, rolling 12-month high-yield default rates would be around 4% in 2008, although a sharp contraction in economic growth could push that figure higher. dj

CT Cris 17:54 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Be ready for the last 20 spicy pips.

London NYAM 17:52 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Longed CADJPY (my nemesis) 109.69

USA BAY 17:52 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Maribor,

You turning point for eur/aud at 1.73xx, what is the tp for that pls. TIA

London NYAM 17:51 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Out of long EURUSD at 1.4609 its having a real struggle with the .382 resistance which is surprising considering its there.

HK Kevin 17:45 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Sitting in front of the screen for several hrs and did my first trade for today earlier. Long EUR/JPY at 163.69 ealier, 30 pips stop and t/p above 165 for tomorrow.
Aussie seems to be bottomed around 8730, but don't to overtrade in this confused and nonsense market.

NYC NYC3 17:37 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
IMO risks are rising sharply of a deflationary meltdown,
credit is druing up in RE and the need to try and liquify could drive many assetrs classes ,, down. i

London NYAM 17:30 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Chris//Well done! Started to add up to a Jalepinio Dip.

CT Cris 17:28 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:04 GMT December 13, 2007
20 spicy pips is you sell gbp.usd now 2.0404..sell another if rise.

=====
exited 20382

London NYAM 17:27 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
YH//LOL ROTF!

Hasselt Red 17:26 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:04 GMT December 13

you seem to be on to something ....btw my apologies!

Hong Kong YH 17:25 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 17:16 GMT December 13, 2007
Hope this time you can buy a chanel purse to your wife. Good Luck. I like this brand very much.

Maribor 17:18 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CADMXN short term turn level 10,57(now 10,6).

London NYAM 17:16 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
YH//Im only afraid of my wife and sharks. Im expecting a reversal in stocks.

Hong Kong YH 17:14 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
don't afraid carry trade unwind again due to stock markets correction?

London NYAM 17:12 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
YH//I am long USDJPY.

Hong Kong YH 17:11 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 17:09 GMT December 13, 2007
did you still short USD/JPY?

London NYAM 17:09 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Really don't understand...
YH// The wisest thing youve posted yet.
That USDCAD is comming down again but its hacking into shorts today. Just like everything else. Tis the season to be stopped-out tralalalala lala.

Hong Kong YH 17:06 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
weird is even stock markets drop a lot, USD/JPY still didn't unwind... there is no reason to not long GBP/USD, see how strengthen the GBP/USD is, back to 2.0410!!! Only currency knows how to rebound. Really don't understand...

The Netherlands Purk 17:05 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Still the Ranger NYAM, but waiting for the end of that range. May miss a few pips but i will be there. But if we do not get to 14580 soon this evening shall be knows as the floating evening.... I shorted usd/cad instead for afew pips, and ready to be closed already.

CT Cris 17:04 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
20 spicy pips is you sell gbp.usd now 2.0404..sell another if rise.

London NYAM 16:57 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Seems like today is the day where every trend line/support/resistance/fib zone and MA thats out there is meant to be broken. ;) My be you can be the Breaker Purk.

Gen dk 16:54 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 16:50 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Purk I guess that means your not the Ranger anymore...?

The Netherlands Purk 16:49 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
euro/us dollar

The Netherlands Purk 16:49 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Yestys pattern is broken, and new pattern says that we will visit the low again this evening Clog time. Ranger will see if he can get 14569 or 14545.
Very rapid to 14620 will spoil that.

London NYAM 16:41 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
About time for that mid-day rally on some short stops?

London NYAM 16:20 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
LONG eurjpy 163.85

London NYAM 16:00 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Small long EURUSD 1.4599.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:50 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The current expected trading range is 1.1355 - 1.1486.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:45 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Trading Reference : ... 0.9973 - 1.0170* - 1.0368 - 1.0466 // 1.0565* - 1.0663 - 1.0762 - 1.0861 - 1.0959* - 1.1058 - [1.1157] - 1.1255 - 1.1354* - 1.1452 - 1.1551 - 1.1650 // 1.1748*



Remarks (USD/CHF) : The upper barrier of the projected series is located at 1.1650 // 1.1748*. The market is positive when it is trading above the pivot center at 1.1057 - 1.1157 and the market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above 1.1354. On the other hand the market is under pressure when it is below the barrier at 1.0853 // 1.0959.

London NYAM 15:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Long EURGBP .7177 add .7168 stop under .7160.
USDJPY can make a decent base for a follow on attack on 112.50 ideally the correction should be shallow. But the wave up so far appears to be a minor 5 wave coming off a major final 5 into the low 110.44 (irregular b wave complex i mentioned last week. 110.44 needs to remain in place).

CT Cris 15:38 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 15:35 GMT December 13, 2007
be ready for another 20 spicy pips.

====it was too fast. to tell.

CT Cris 15:35 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
be ready for another 20 spicy pips.

CT Cris 15:29 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 15:15 GMT December 13, 2007
sell gbp.usd now 20405 for 20 spicy pips
=====
exited 20387

London HC 15:28 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Juicy won out, good call

London HC 15:18 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
cris, where is the stop if your juicy pips turn sour?

CT Cris 15:15 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
sell gbp.usd now 20405 for 20 spicy pips.

CT Cris 15:10 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
be ready for 20 spicy pips

jkt-aye 15:08 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 01:08 GMT December 13, 2007
placing order to long usjy 111.75 stp 111.35 tgt 112.90-113.50 and long usdchf 1.1250 stp 1.1230 tgt 1.1320-1.1440.
let see if it work.
===============

move stp on long usjy to 111.95 .... cancel swissy order
silent mode ... zzzzzzz

Como Perrie 15:04 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
tankan 19

me done ..strange the whole so far yet central banks here and there It seems

PAR 14:34 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Somebody seems to know those Japanese Tankan numbers and do they look ugly .

Como Perrie 14:17 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Best thing from Central banks to stabilize the whole is to call the Amero a thing near to done imvho.

London NYAM 14:14 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Perie/Cable looks like it changed from 3-3-5 Flat from 2.11 to perhaps a descending wedge/triangle. Its tricky now as the Fed/GS/Kampo/Whatever has muddied the pattern yesterday. USDCAD is idling around 1.01 and isnt providing any directional cues yet for USD. (Maybe that golden goose/loone has finally been cooked?). Same thing looks like for EURCAD declining momentum makes it a shakey long. Nope for me right now Blind faith in the Jubbers and a reversal on equities (I dont give a censored what the reason is cause its always made up after the fact). Anyway careful on the shorts today. GL. I must get that Sushi.

Como Perrie 14:10 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
might also get some interest into audusd shorts in correspondance of a gold spot printing below 800

madrid mm 14:04 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
* Retail Sales Rise Twice as Fast as Forecast, Easing U.S. Recession Concern

* Producer Prices Increase 3.2%, More Than Double Estimates, on Fuel Costs

bloomberg.com

Como Perrie 14:03 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
I see nyam..me been onto the opposite side from yesterday highs into this early ldn open xxjp...core short equities too and been some short term doing here and there so to not get annoyed...elsewhere had been early onto some fx too....yet waiting cable to drop more maybe later on and am eurcad seller too...beside am also looking at coupla other unconventional things..think Ill stay here an hour or so and then maybe stop for the day....eurcad to get It trough am watching the thing amero or whatever but interesting if usdcad confirms below printed low and gets to the parity again might be..so far am not so sure this last to materialize, but you know the beast...

London NYAM 13:57 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Perie//Well its looking like a good start. If you dont step into the fray cant walk away with the purse (im sure it went like that). Trust less the carry then the dollar yen so i stepped back in at 112.16 with a double add below. Im looking at multiple clusters for an initial move trhough stops just above 112,50 that will land somewhere between 112.74 and 112.87 (cluster of fibs). May be my last trade of the week.

St. Annaland Bob 13:52 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
yes CRIS ... you are a living example for water pipe FX

Como Perrie 13:51 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:40 GMT December 13, 2007

might be your right there nyam,, 112.50 165 am watching but am flat there as did not reversed long this early just lowered there...too many things to follow does not bode that good...but with ratail sales so high guess equity shorts better be ware...plus central banks etc. and money market is rather stable confirming It works......guess carry trade might party into new highs for the next monday's auction......while me maybe taking a walk in some...my appetite for destruction just went bit asleep :))

CT Cris 13:50 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 13:46 GMT December 13, 2007
you are right my friend....it is very difficult to focus on the market..giving signals...trading..talking with others..all at same time.

madrid mm 13:49 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CRIS, believe you me !!! 8-)

Pips in the bag are what matters

CT Cris 13:46 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
good....madrid mm....pls pull my leg ..only

Atlanta South 13:46 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris
It takes focus & its hard to focus when arguing. Whatever your doing it is working. Gt

Como Perrie 13:45 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
so guess am taking a short week maybe..even if am yet puzzled with some open

Como Perrie 13:44 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
I do not wanna tell how many pips from yesterday...but worth coupla workweeks :)9

madrid mm 13:43 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:40 GMT December 13, 2007

I made 91 Sweet and Sour pips LOL 8-)

Only pulling your leg Cris, Well done !

Como Perrie 13:41 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
As I see US money market not concerned by PPI

CT Cris 13:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
atlanta south..thks I made more than 90 pips while others urguing ....

London NYAM 13:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
No time to reasses IMO Perie. Thin market lots of short USDJPYs above. The equities fall on rate expectations and dollar rises against yen. Equities bounce back on better consumer and macro outlook, yeap, you guessed it dollar yen goes up. Phase 2 underway and its jubbsville up ahead.

Atlanta South 13:37 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris
Nice calls on GBP/$. Not trading now, but still viewing the market & lurking the forum. Gt

Como Perrie 13:36 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
yeap nyam was just observing and mumbling...pretty mixed response..overal Retail sales sharply higher at 1.2 pct might be stock market positive but production costs have rised too, even if the latter are not so closely watched by the Fed.....think we need some for the market to reasses...at current have no big ideas on what next

London NYAM 13:34 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Dollar up accross the board stocks down....Interest rate cut hopes clearly falling...boohoo.

CT Cris 13:31 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:44 GMT December 13, 2007
20 spicy pips sell gbp.usd now 20412

====exited 20392

London NYAM 13:30 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Perrie// no doubt and i probably wouldnt be trading either.

Looks strangely like the market wants to start its run up now. Seems early Lehman brothers or not. Literally may be missing the Christmas rush. But then again if it starts too early its liable to end early too...ouch. Off for sushi just in case my i get back in the yen.

Como Perrie 13:21 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
If you trade yards Nyam you can get a theater for watching the show :))

some cad datas too upcoming beside the usd ones...manufac sales seen negatie -1.5 and new housing price index seen lower from previous at 0.3 ... usd retail seen higher from previous while ppi moderatly expanding...

go to know :) maybe movie time today some am already tired

CT Cris 13:21 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
spicy pips is not dangerous , you can add your strategy to it,
such as stop loss or hedge or whatever you want.

London NYAM 13:16 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
mm//Ideally, I would like a set up of about 12-15 screens. Yes, I am not kidding.
Dropping the long for a pip (after collecting the add at 111.75)
yay. Thankfully i had a yard on (only).

St. Annaland Bob 13:15 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
aMMigo, make sure your wallet and a/c does not get nudist too

madrid mm 13:13 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob.
That s ok , i am a nudist LOL

London NYAM,
20 screens ? Do i read correct ? I can barely deal with 2
8-)

St. Annaland Bob 13:11 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:04 GMT December 13, 2007

going to the beach is good idea if you send money for CRIS to trade for you ... so you will get used to sort of naked as your wallet going to be ;)

London NYAM 13:11 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
mm//I have checked the charts on many posters calls. I want to see how well they do over time and to see if they make a call that my method would corroborate. 90% of the time they do not, but I do like that calls are made. I cant keep 20 screens up and see what all the currencies or markets i like are doing so it helps to alert.

Hasselt Red 13:07 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 13:01 GMT December 13

i know, just pointing out the danger of certain calls. Prefer them calls which give a trend direction instead of entries.

madrid mm 13:04 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:49 GMT December 13, 2007

Just for the record, i don t follow anyone's call. And this is not saying because they are wrong. In fact i am sure a lot of gr8 people here make gr8 calls.

In fact if i trusted anyone's call i would rather send them my money to trade it and i would go to the beach
8-)

London NYAM 13:02 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Okay seriously.
I believe the market (US equities) is going to form a base probably today. Shorts will get squeezed and this will be a cue for a rapid rise in carry trades. We may need a final shake-out. i wont chase it but if it falls nicely on the open ill buy into it.

St. Annaland Bob 13:01 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hasselt Red 13:00 GMT December 13, 2007

he is not a newbie

madrid mm 13:00 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
LOL, what an interesting forum with even more interesting characters in it.

8-)

Only 1 yard ? amateur 8-)

Hasselt Red 13:00 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:49 GMT December 13

happened before on here a few years ago, a bunch of couragious newcomers did the same type of trade calls, sometimes even pulled you a leg which caused lots of angry blood on this forum....i learned my lesson. keep safe!!

London NYAM 12:54 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
pip pip pip...boom! Wake up MM you just sold a yard of cable...wait, its ok, its spicy and you can close your books in a minute.

St. Annaland Bob 12:49 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
aMMigo, that CRIS boy going to cause mass food poisoning with his spicy trades ... his pip pimping is something to avoid.

nj jf 12:49 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
mm - everytime he types spicey i feel like im supposed to order sushi.

Hong Kong Ahe 12:49 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:47 GMT - LOLROTF

madrid mm 12:47 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Nyam, i am scared to fall asleep on my keyboard and create multiple orders by accident
LOl

CT Cris,

YOu are on a roll man !! 8-)

NYAM became WAVEMAN
You are now officialy known SPICYMAN in my books !!

8-)

St. Annaland Bob 12:46 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:38 GMT December 13, 2007

calling people to follow you is bit too much. don't do that again, as the following posts will not be so kind towards you.

CT Cris 12:44 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
20 spicy pips sell gbp.usd now 20412

Hong Kong Qindex 12:42 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is a range bound market.

madrid mm 12:41 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
indeed...I am falling asleep...
8-)

CT Cris 12:38 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 09:55 GMT December 13, 2007
ct. it might work in such a chopy day. you can get caught many a time.. and you dont mention any stops..

===========
spicy pips... is a live trading..just follow me.

CT Cris 12:36 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:16 GMT December 13, 2007
20-30 spicy pips if you sell gbp.usd 20408

=====
exited 20403

London NYAM 12:35 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:16//death by a thousand pips... One pip at a time.

CT Cris 12:32 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:07 GMT December 13, 2007
sell another gbp.usd 2.0436

exited 20416

madrid mm 12:16 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
it is just that time of the year when things get choppy

jkt-aye 12:16 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Many thanks Dr Q

Hong Kong Qindex 12:10 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : 111.20 - 112.37 for the time being

Hong Kong Qindex 12:08 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : 1.1344 - 1.1394 for the time being

CT Cris 12:07 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
sell another gbp.usd 2.0436

Hong Kong Qindex 12:01 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 11:59 GMT - USD/JPY and USD/CHF are range bound.

jkt-aye 11:59 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, would you share your view on usjy and usdchf ? tia

PAR 11:55 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Adding liquidity without adrressing source of problem is like giving painkillers to a patient without cutting away the infected spots . It cures the symptoms but not the illnes. That will take time and other measures to stop the reckless lending and too loose standards .

Como Perrie 11:46 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
overall think I need a lunch..so will mumble later :)) nothing to sail here at current maybe

Atlanta South 11:46 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Although there are some opportunities here & there it appears my staying on the sideline over the last few weeks may have been wise decision after all. Now just waiting for 2008. Gt to all.

Como Perrie 11:35 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
am mumbling to lower core stops dow some a hundred points, just do not want to get cought in case of more shows today..maybe 13530 or so maybe reduce yet some...I'll see It again nearer to the US opening..some interesting datas today again later as Retail Sales and PPI might be more sensitive imvho

Como Perrie 11:27 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
http://uk.reuters.com/articlePrint?articleId=UKL1356758820071213

Como Perrie 11:23 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Also Brown's Speech very interesting

Como Perrie 11:19 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
fwiw have lowerd eurjpy stops 164.7

still mumbling onto residual..

as am reading CBs around talking lotsa and do not like It much at current levels the whole...

took a look onto gold daily ..interesting how deep down stays the 200Ma

CT Cris 11:01 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:51 GMT December 13, 2007
sell another gbp.usd at 20431

exited 20414

London NYAM 10:58 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 10:52//as far as i can tell Jubsville is as close as your nearest stop-loss.
Went long USDJPY 111.87 add at 111.75 stop...well ill let Dr J tell you.

PAR 10:54 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
With Uk unemployment at 15 year low and strong IP the GB december CBI industrial trends may show big gains .

HK [email protected] 10:53 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
It seems that for medium term investors in Euro nothing to worry, will be hard to bring down that currency and 1.52 target is very probable, though lot of fiat USD strength scares goes around.

isr jweb 10:52 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
nyam where is jubsvill? anywhere far?

London NYAM 10:43 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 20:41//Thanks ahe.
Closed out my gbpusd shorts and my gbpjpy shorts.
This market seems to be meandering towards jubsville.

Mtl JP 10:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:52 / hehe, as if things were not ugly enough already.

I believe FED chief was forcibly replaced twice its annals. (Meyer and Miller)

PAR 10:33 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
A lot of added liquidity also funding new crude purchases and so flowing to sovereign wealth funds in Opec countries . Not so smart imho .

madrid mm 10:32 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
A very good one.

" Dec. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Dear investor, we'd like to update you on this year's performance of our hedge fund, Short-Term Capital Mismanagement LLP.

Actually, we'd prefer not to. We'd rather disappear. We read somewhere that Panama is a really nice place to retire to, but our lawyer says that would be a bad idea. So here goes. " Mark Gilbert !

isr jweb 10:31 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
par, i dont disagree, im just thinking thats its a sign that investors think that the fed is going to save them yet again, and that theres still a snatch to make..

isr is 10:31 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR, interesting thought, but what are you trying to say!!!!

PAR 10:27 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Big jump higher in GBPJPY and EURJPY is proof that part of the liquidity the Fed is adding is funding the carry trades instead of addressing the source of the problem .

Maribor 10:07 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 09:58 GMT December 13, 2007

My guess is 1,168 (NZDAUD 0,856), but may take more time.

Gen dk 09:59 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Ahe 09:58 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
AUDNZD has tendency to rebounce higher to 1.1350. GLGT

Hong Kong Qindex 09:57 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It can easily go above 2.0430. The market is moving higher from 2.0388 to 2.0440.

Jerusalem ML 09:56 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hi All

Tip of the day -

Short GOLD here around 810
Target 790 by monday

good luck

isr jweb 09:55 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
ct. it might work in such a chopy day. you can get caught many a time.. and you dont mention any stops..

PAR 09:52 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
If things really turn ugly can the Us government replace the head of its central bank like the Uk changes from football coach if the national team fails to qualify for a major tournament .

CT Cris 09:51 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
sell another gbp.usd at 20431

Ft. Lauterdale MrHuckFin 09:48 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris: Thank you for your reply, now I understand.:-)

CT Cris 09:45 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Vail MC 09:41 GMT December 13, 2007
CT, just so I understand your posts correctly, if it doesn't go your way for the 20 pips you recommend and moves against you 20 pips then just double your position? Thanks

====
spicy pips is a live trading....buy another or sell another ..you may order same lot as previous one and exit both at first entry oder..so you will make b/e for the first and profit for second

CT Cris 09:42 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:35 GMT December 13, 2007
sell another gbp.usd at 20426

exited at 20412 /14 pips

Vail MC 09:41 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT, just so I understand your posts correctly, if it doesn't go your way for the 20 pips you recommend and moves against you 20 pips then just double your position? Thanks

CT Cris 09:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:18 GMT December 13, 2007
buy another usd cad at 10114

====
exited both 20 pips profit

Stockholm za 09:36 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   

¤¤ Trade off... on ...Realistic ego ¤¤

In the abundance of food, a hungry man cooks 20 grain of rice
in 1 litre of water. To satisfy his hunger..
Happy trades & have a nice day

CT Cris 09:35 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
sell another gbp.usd at 20426

Ft. Lauterdale MrHuckFin 09:32 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris: When you say "spicy pips" do you mean good or hard won? Just thinking. :-)

Hong Kong Qindex 09:27 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is positive when it is above the weekly cycle pivot center at 2.0294 - 2.0388. The current expected trading range is 2.0385 - 2.0567. The mid-point reference of 2.0385 - 2.0567 is 2.0476.


... 2.0294 - 2.0339 // 2.0385* - 2.0430 - 2.0476 - 2.0522 - 2.0567* // 2.0613 - 2.0658 ...

Como Perrie 09:22 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:15 GMT December 13, 2007

I do have the impression CBs and Big banks might turn very ugly in the upcoming days, so will watch very carefully possibly staying mostly aside from short term traps.. am already reducing activity ahead of year end for myself...some small stuff in case better..

isr jweb 09:18 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
ct what happened to your long usdcad?

CT Cris 09:18 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
buy another usd cad at 10114

CT Cris 09:16 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
20-30 spicy pips if you sell gbp.usd 20408

PAR 09:15 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
What Gorbachev did to the soviet plan economy Bernanke is trying to do to free capital markets. Trying to manipulate LIBOR is like giving painkillers to a patient without curing his disease . Interest rates should be set by the markets and not by sorcerers apprenticees in Washington. Some interest litterature.
http://www.ntrs.com/library/econ_research/weekly/us/010330.html

Como Perrie 09:13 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
flattened earlier usdjpy shorts

will see else later

Como Perrie 09:11 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
reduced dow stops 13630

Como Perrie 09:10 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
cut more ey shorts,

just don't like It to sail much today - seas, moons and stars strange today to this fisherman

letting just small 165.10 into later

Gen dk 09:02 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Frankie Bandung 08:56 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hallo .... for people hwo trade cable .... becarefull for long cable ... because the patern of three falling peack try to be made .... cek on daily chart .... I want to send attachment but i don't know how .... heuheuheu
by the way .... good luck ....

Como Perrie 08:54 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
fwiw BOJs Iwata just said Japan banks can absorb subprime losses

Maribor 08:52 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Debate around USA current account deficit produced also this result(IMF 2007 Research Conference):

"On the degree of real exchange rate adjustment necessary to improve the U.S. current account balance—a topic of continuing debate—Robert Dekle, Jonathan Eaton, and Samuel Kortum calibrated a novel trade model and found that balancing current accounts may require modest changes in relative wages and real wages. For example, wages in the United States (country with the largest deficit) need to fall by around 10 percent relative to those in Japan (country with the largest surplus) to balance current accounts."

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2007/RES1121A.htm

madrid mm 08:44 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Sovereign Wealth Fund Worries

WSJ's Capital columnist David Wessel talks about the role sovereign wealth funds play in the global economy. With holdings at roughly $3 trillion dollars they provide an important source of capital, but they also raise serious concerns.

Video

http://www.brightcove.tv/title.jsp?title=1342085793

Maribor 08:44 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong YH 08:38 GMT December 13, 2007

May be some spicy STOP...

isr jweb 08:44 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
the pair isnt crazy. its carry trade cravinggggggggggto rise

madrid mm 08:41 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
A pair is never crazy.
Only some parties that trade it
8-)

Como, to wait is not a waste of time. 8-)

Hong Kong YH 08:38 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD is crazy, suddenly rebound 30 pips to 2.0430

Maribor 08:36 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Chris, I don't pay attention on few pips...just wanted to get your message clearer.

Como Perrie 08:35 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
SNB as expected on stay at 2.75

ECB Bini Smaghi says must focus on inflation

while Darling welcomes central bank's action


while me welcoming a pause, this last action has become puzzling to me...gotta work some analysis again onto the whole and re run risks distribution..

have a good day ahead

CT Cris 08:33 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
reading may be diffrent...for example spread in my platform 2 pips at usd.cad.

CT Cris 08:30 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 08:27 GMT December 13, 2007
CT Cris 08:15 GMT December 13, 2007
======
bought @ 10138

Maribor 08:29 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
EURAUD next turn level ~1,738.

Maribor 08:27 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 08:15 GMT December 13, 2007

Your post would have more weight if you add price in the moment of posting, as small differences(20 pips) would be easier visible.

Syd 08:24 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Look for the CHF to appreciate going into the end of 2007, says Calyon. Thinks the SNB will leave rates unchanged later Thursday, but leave the door open for further rate hikes if needed. "We are short EUR/CHF, targeting 1.5825 with a stop at 1.6735," the bank says

Como Perrie 08:22 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
I'll just watch some the SNB rate decision and then relax some (maybe :)

Syd 08:19 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
"The risk of recessions will not recede as a consequence of these measures," says Calyon, about the Fed's coordinated liquidity package. In fact, the bank warns that the increase in mortgage defaults, paralysis in the credit markets, and financial sector exposure all remain the same. As a result, it expects risk aversion to creep back in, pushing the JPY back up as carry trades unwind.

madrid mm 08:18 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Como , that is an alternative 8-)

Bobby, i hope it is on recycled.

PAR, why don t we all buy it from this Forum ? I can see myself as president of a bank8-)

Ben "Pusher" Bernanke has joined forces with the world's other big drug dealers, like the ECB, to spread the white stuff around to all who want it. Scrooge he is not, but for how long can this attempt by the central banks to oil the markets continue? They do this every day of course, but not on this scale and money doesn't grow on trees. Click here!

CT Cris 08:15 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
20 spicy pips if you buy usd.cad now.

Como Perrie 08:14 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
So have reduce some ...even if risks for friday crash still exists, we must see today closing first how It develops for stock markets...very puzzling we the late CBs action

gl and relax

Como Perrie 08:12 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
at least me mumbling to slow down into next week...also gold high today might hold as am looking at It so maybe some a ten buck to make It on lower, but strange the whole at current

Como Perrie 08:06 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:03 GMT December 13, 2007

then don't sail - perrie :))

St. Annaland Bob 08:05 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   

happy morning ... with all that money injected, does anyone has an idea how much money must get printed for that worldwide? ... save the rain forests from central bankers !!! ... happy trades

isr jweb 08:03 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
this looks like a move - a real one maybe markets are starting real down

PAR 07:36 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
German bank SachsenLb, virtually bancrupt. Could be closed by monday as Berlin refuses new money.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/12/13/afx4434624.html

madrid mm 07:11 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Have a gr8 day all of you.

May the force be with you. 8-)

madrid mm 07:03 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
""If one does not know to which port is sailing, no wind is favorable. "" Seneca!

madrid mm 06:47 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
* PIMCO Gross- Central banks" $40 bln injection may not be enough -Bloomberg TV.

* MoF Nov flow data wk-ended Dec 8 - Japanese buy netY176.4 bln foreign stocks,sell Y186.1 bln, sell Y88.2 bln bills; foreigners sell Y53.8 bln Japanesestocks, Y661.7 bln bonds, buy Y1.1134 trln bills.

* US TsySec Paulson - China sees benefits of more flexible CNY, modest progressmade in financial sector reforms - DowJones.

* USTR Schwab - Concerned over progress in Chinese financial reform - DowJones.

* HKMA Yam - China"s economic growth has been too fast - DowJones.

* BoC Gov Dodge - CAD rose too far, range of mid to upper-90 US cents consistentwith models, Chinese yuan must rise - Reuters.

* ECB/Nat"l Bank Of Belgium Quaden - Seriously concerned over EZ inflation - DJ.

* UAE CB Gov - No de-peg from USD now, no change inmonetary policy - DowJones.

[GMT]

07:00 BoJ DepGov Iwata speech in Tokyo.

08:00 Japan MoF Tsuda regular press conference.

08:30 SNB interest rate decision, no change in LIBOR targets eyed.

09:00 ECB monthly bulletin.

09:30 Germany Ifo economic forecasts.

14:00 BoE MPC Tucker speech in London.



[USD/JPY] and JPY crosses remained relatively buoyant in Asia despite plungingstocks. The Nikkei literally plunged despite the joint announcement by fivemajor central banks to provide short-term liquidity to the credit market,preoccupied still by fresh talk of losses at and downgrades of some financialinstitutions. USD/JPY and the crosses did edge lower on the back of stock marketlosses but the losses were limited. USD/JPY eased from an early high of 112.24to 111.82, rebounding during the course of the session towards 112.00. Massivestops remain above 112.50. [EUR/JPY] fell from 165.12 to 164.60 beforesteadying. [AUD/JPY], [NZD/JPY] and [GBP/JPY] fell from 99.32 to 98.48, 88.36 to87.60 and 229.70 to 228.70, respectively. These latter three pairs bounced inthin afternoon trading on aggressive buys from a large Japanese securitiescompany presumably on the back of continuing Toshin-related demand.

[EUR/USD] opened in Asia at 1.4710, remaining relatively stable despite fiercevolatility in other currency pairings and other financial markets in the wake ofthe extraordinary moves by the Fed and other central banks to provide short-termliquidity to the credit markets. After edging down to 1.4705 early, it driftedhigher on broad USD weakness and buying from US investment banks. Hawkishcomments from the ECB"s Quaden helped to underpin the margin. EUR/USD topped outat 1.4730 with decent offers from 1.4730-35 discouraging attempts higher.Standing bids from sovereign names were report from the high-1.46 area.

[GBP/USD] opened at 2.0470 after a volatile US session that saw it rise to2.0583 in the wake of the surprise liquidity package announced by five centralbanks including the BoE and then fall later as Wall Street gave up initialgains.

[USD/CHF] traded a relatively tight 1.1329-53 range in Asia, trading a bit heavyin tandem with USD/JPY.

[AUD/USD] opened in Sydney at 0.8840 and traded a 0.8809-70 range, reboundingafter selling in New York as Wall Street gave up initial gains following thecentral bank announcement on liquidity provisions.

[NZD/USD] opened at 0.7900 in Wellington, touched 0.7910 and then fellprecipitously to 0.7855-60 on soft NZ retail sales data.

[Other Asset Markets]

[The Nikkei] traded down from the get-go and continued to move lower despite theannouncement of short-term liquidity provisions by five central banks overnight.Equity players seemed more preoccupied by more news of losses at and downgradesof financial institutions. It closed at 15,536.52, down 395.74 points or 2.48%on the day. The range was 15,532.53-15,833.10. [TOPIX] closed at 1516.10, down40.83 or 2.62%. Most other bourses in the region were also down.

[JGBs] and [Euroyen] traded firm today. Most of the action was in the short-endof the curve as dealers sought to unwind LIBOR plays following the announcementof short-term liquidity provisions from five central banks overnight.

GENEVA DS 06:45 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
USA BAy.... question about AUDCHF.... imho think over next swing AUDUSD might go up to 1.-- (3Month) and USDCHF might go down to 1.-- (3 month...) no cross movement I think... do not know if that helps....

madrid mm 06:36 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hello and GM FX Jedi from around the world 8-)

Regarding this "injection" ( sounds like an antigenic preparation used to establish immunity to a disease to me !) , it made me think.

After all maybe people are concentrating to much on the problem and not enough on the solution. " No importa el problema, importa la solucion".

Yes I know, it depends what kind of solution 8-)

Mtl JP 06:14 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:52 / “I do not doubt that a low U.S. federal-funds rate in response to the dot-com crash, and especially the 1% rate set in mid-2003 to counter potential deflation, lowered interest rates on adjustable-rate mortgages and may have contributed to the rise in U.S. home prices.”

But lest you think he is somehow repenting:

“In my judgment, however, the impact on demand for homes financed with ARMs was not major.”

“After more than a half-century observing numerous price bubbles evolve and deflate, I have reluctantly concluded that bubbles cannot be safely defused by monetary policy or other policy initiatives before the speculative fever breaks on its own. There was clearly little the world's central banks could do to temper this most recent surge in human euphoria, in some ways reminiscent of the Dutch Tulip craze of the 17th century and South Sea Bubble of the 18th century.” - The ever practical prankster GREENSPAN, Wednesday, December 12, in WSJ

Syd 05:50 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY drops to intraday low of 111.71 (down around half yen vs NY close) as non-Japan speculators cut longs amid widening losses in Japan stock prices, says trader at major Japan bank. Adds, impact of major central banks' announcement overnight on plans to help credit market with liquidity has worn off. "Personally, I don't think (the planned central bank steps) will solve anything," as private-sector banks' reluctance to lend has less to do with their need for cash than with uncertainty about who's exposed to U.S. subprime mess. Tips 111.60-112.30 range for rest of Asia time

NYC NYc3 05:44 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
US stk mkt keeps failing on FED etc moves,
EXTRA vulnerable is the codeword.
Me thinks a crash is at hand

Perth ja 05:43 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Hi, am changing AUS$ to NZ$ and in the last 4 weelks it has droped 9 cents, what is driving this, and any thoughts on the future, is this just part of a cycle,
Cheers

isr jweb 05:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
thats quite clear.. but if you really want you can buy a shop and a house in cheshire or liverpool for very cheap even now...

i saw one that was rented out for 27 pounds a week.. and thats overpriced..

Syd 05:32 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 05:31 GMT thats funny, but the UK has one of its own with the overpriced housing market.

isr jweb 05:31 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
syd, i read this article you posted, what i liked most was this article: This may be a Made-in-America credit crisis but the Americans have cleverly exported their sub-prime cancer to pension funds all over the world. The risk now is a recession on both sides of the Atlantic," he said.

who said ameroca isnt good in export?

Syd 04:52 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Never before have the central banks of North America, Europe, and Britain, acted together as such a unified phalanx, but never before have transatlantic credit markets seized up with such violent effect.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/13/ccbanks213.xml

Syd 04:48 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
ECB warns of danger of a wider squeeze
By Gerrit Wiesmann and Ivar Simensen in Frankfurt

The eurozone’s 21 largest banks hold €244bn (£175bn, $359bn) in off-balance sheet assets that may have to be brought back on to their balance sheets and could trigger a credit squeeze in the wider economy, the European Central Bank warned on Wednesday.

Fears that banks could be forced to take these assets on to their books have fuelled the liquidity squeeze.
FT

isr jweb 04:39 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
syd. i dont know why.. but i have some feeling that well still see 840 before the end of december, and looking since 2003 (i didnt check prior) actually verifies that. at least to november highs.

consilidating months are usually feb-may.

hope i helped

Syd 04:16 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Fed Plan Weakens Gold's Safe Haven Attractiveness
Fed's coordinated central bank plan to restore liquidity flows in global money markets weakens safe haven argument for gold, reduces its chance of rallying $20 to $30 before end of year, says Investec's Darren Heathcote. "The initial market response liked that it was a coordinated approach. Therefore it will help to put a cap on gold. Certainly it won't force investors away from other assets," Heathcote said. Spot gold at $810.30/oz, down $2.90 on NY close. However, Heathcote adds plan may be "too little too late" to stave off more mortgage-related losses at banks before end of year, which could dent investor sentiment, force stock markets to slide, to the benefit of gold.

Syd 04:04 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   

ATTORNEY: Now doctor, isn't it true that when a person dies in his sleep, he doesn't know about it until the next morning?
WITNESS: Did you actually pass the bar exam?

isr jweb 03:58 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
hk im no analyist only a reader and a onlooker, one of the guys who are good at it is lahore but he has vanished into thin air..

i can comment on what ive been doing in the last 24 hours..

and by the way i love you guys - your great!

Hong Kong YH 03:52 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 03:43 GMT December 13, 2007
thanks for your comment, then I long USD/JPY

isr jweb 03:43 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
i love those... addicted and restricted...

Syd 03:38 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 03:04 GMT up to xmas eve and then thats it with a pop in now and again

isr jweb 03:33 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
short term looks like higher, maybe just because of the crosses, it looks like its itching to get higher, mainly in the crosses that are dollar pegged.

i tried trading in and out in the gbp-229.6-228.8 in and out and vice versa but only for short periods as the market is unpredictable now.

basically the carry looks in for now. for how long i dont know...

HK YH 03:25 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 03:04 GMT December 13, 2007
hello, any view of USD/JPY? prefer long or short?

isr jweb 03:04 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
hi syd. till when do you trade - i mean are you taking any holiday? and where is lahore seems silent these days i hope all is good with him...

Syd 01:48 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Strength in employment strength for part time workers said to be related to seasonality and some election-related hiring.

Syd 01:40 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Australian jobs market picking up on supply side, countering upbeat demand, cooling inflationary pressures, says Nomura Australia senior economist Tom Kenny; "We're getting additional workers coming in to meet demand so for inflation it's a good outcome." Notes transparency measures adopted by RBA last week show bank not overly concerned with credit market.

jkt-aye 01:08 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
placing order to long usjy 111.75 stp 111.35 tgt 112.90-113.50 and long usdchf 1.1250 stp 1.1230 tgt 1.1320-1.1440.
let see if it work.

Syd 01:03 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
More erratic action likely in AUD/USD in Asia session. Peter Pontikis, senior currency strategist at Suncorp, says possibility of move toward 0.8500 hasn't gone away. Session ahead will see resistance at 0.8860, some support at 0.8780. Needs break of either side to give next 80-point move

Syd 00:42 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Moody's cuts BoA outlook to negative
Moody's Investors Service cut the outlook on Bank of America to negative on the back of the bank's lowered fourth quarter results. It affirmed its deposit and debt ratings for Bank of America. Moody's said the negative outlook reflects Bank of America's reduced financial flexibility, as a result of increased credit costs and market-driven losses at a time when Bank of America's tangible capital ratios are low and its dividend rate is rately high.

Syd 00:39 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
melbourne saint 00:37 well it shot up to 8865 until they saw the real data , 44.000 part time season jobs , after christmas will be all let go

melbourne saint 00:37 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
syd 00:32 looks all part time christmas staff casual

certainly a mixed reaction so far syd

oh by the way thanks for everything you do.. merry xmas
cheers saint

Gen dk 00:36 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 00:33 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
melbourne saint 00:32 looks all part time christmas staff casual

melbourne saint 00:32 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
19:30ET *DJ Australian Nov Unemployment Rate 4.5%; Consensus 4.3% 

Syd 00:32 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Australian Nov Employment +52,600; Consensus +20,000

Australian Nov Unemployment Rate 4.5%; Consensus 4.3%
Australian Full-Time Employment +8,200
Australian Participation Rate 65.3%; Consensus 65.0%

Auckland JJ 00:13 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Surely kiwi must retreat with the latest retail sales fiqures well down, should please RBNZ, if this continues then no rate hike next time round and possible rates coming down mid 2008. Any Views on when the kiwi will really break down to .6500 region against US dollar?

Syd 00:04 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
The balance in UK house prices fell for the fourth straight month, and to a nine-year low of -40.6 in November, compared with a revised -23.4 in October, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors. DJN forecast was for -30. The RICS originally reported the October balance at -22.2. RICS said the steep decline came as new buyer inquiries continued to fall in November, while the newly agreed sales level slumped to the lowest level since records for this measure began in April 1999. Looking ahead and following the BoE's 25 basis points rate cut last week, RICS said that buyer affordability may "improve in the coming months."

Syd 00:02 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectations Dn To 4.1% In Dec

Syd 00:01 GMT December 13, 2007 Reply   
UK RICS House Price Balance -40.6% In Nov Vs -23.4% In Oct

 




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