Forex Forum Archive for 12/19/2007

Hong Kong Qindex 23:57 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Resistance at 0.7229

Basically it is a range market of 0.7100 - 0.7250. Projected resistant points are located at 0.7217, 0.7229, 0.7236 and 0.7249. The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.7113 - 0.7169.


Hong Kong Qindex 04:21 GMT December 17, 2007
EUR/GBP : Support at 0.7014 - 0.7017


Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (0.7113) - (0.7169)

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.7113 - 0.7169. The downside targeting points are 0.7052 and 0.7098. A projected resistant level is positioning at 0.7229 - 0.7236.

HK RF@ 23:43 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
It seems like Yen will NOT have a hard time to move to around 114.40, but political situation in the Middle East should be watched.

HK RF@ 23:34 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USD strength may last for another 1.5%-2% appreciation, but regarding the US as a non disappointing source of scandals many of them are not yet completely revealed, I suspect the USD strength may not last above the 2% for long.
Tech. turned today more positive for the USD, but this correction is not too much fundamentally backed, thus I suspect it, as short lived.

Syd 23:00 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Shoppers to enjoy falling prices after EU clampdown on credit card charges
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=503469&in_page_id=1770&ct=5

LA BFL 22:44 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
GBp/jpy is targeting 200.xx ..

Get ready !

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:39 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
4H --gbp/jpy -- 'officially' broke and closed lower below the trend line from the 221.50 low - which came arond 226.30
-- targets I think must be recent lows at 225 and 223.69

dc CB 22:02 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Bear Stearns: Barclays sues Bear Stearns over hedge funds - DJ

Barclays Bank (BCS) sued the co, alleging the investment bank misrepresented the health of one of its failed hedge funds. The suit, filed in federal court in New York, says Bear Stearns knew for months that certain assets in the Bear Stearns High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Enhanced Leverage Master Fund were worth "far less" than their stated values.

Syd 21:53 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
NZ's current account deficit widens to NZ$5.17 in 3Q vs NZ$3 billion in 2Q, economists expectations for NZ$4.91 billion; Statistics NZ also says deficit for year to end September NZ$14.2 billion, or 8.3% of GDP, slightly above NZ$14.03 billion expected by economists. Widening of on-year deficit mainly driven by increase in profits earned by foreign investors on their investments in New Zealand; 3Q deficit on investment was NZ$3.26 billion from NZ$3.05 billion in 2Q; goods deficit was NZ$1.62 billion vs NZ$21 million surplus, services deficit NZ$566 million vs NZ$162 million.

Pecs Andras 21:49 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
-5.17B NZ Trade Bal

LA BFL 21:47 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have the news outcome for Nzd/usd trade balance?

Thanks

nj jf 21:17 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
kap.see help forum

nj jf 21:04 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
kapricorn did you make a profit this month ?

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:38 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
tnx a lot nh!

Jeddah abb 20:35 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
thank you Maribor.

Livingston nh 20:30 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn - we are all acquainted here - the EUR/GBP low this week held at a higher level than previous low BUT today's spike does not seem supported by MACD (the head was clearly in a falling MACD) - I am not very familiar w/candles but a positive would be today's break back above 21 da avg// my bias is a weaker EUR rather than a pop in sterling

Maribor 20:23 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Jeddah Abb 18:32 GMT December 19, 2007

Well, I think will reach 0,841 turn level in few days; however, risk/reward taking into account noise is not good. It is possible to short it here if you can stand large deviation against you(low leverage).

EURCHF has 1,48 target, timeframe ~2 years, but can without problems see 1,681 before that.

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:17 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
nh...
excuse me for addressing u without previous aquaintance..

EURGBP daily chart really has the last day's spike forming smtg between a triple top and a strange form of H&S..
either way - if the next candle turns down around the present top at .7200/02 - target will be the neckline around .7120...

but I wonder how this goes with the fundamental weakness in GBPUSD measured versus the EURUSD... cable must either appreciate in a rush or the EUR fall at once..
--- this is just for commentary not a trading question..

Budapest Z 19:55 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Caba, well could be...but I see it differently. technical outlook is still positive for this pair, but I must add I do not trade intraday "noise". I think this is nothing more than position squaring to year end and there is nothing wrong with profiting from it...but prefer to stand aside in eurusd. Playing that through gbp has been more preferable as that pair has "story" behind it. Until the fundamental story changes, which I havent seen yet, i am positive for this pair. EU has a cyclical lag to the US, which will show up in the short end of the curve. As I see it now, 1.40-1.41/42 is the area where I am looking to start having some exposure. just my 2 cents for what is worth...:)

Stockholm za 19:34 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   

re.....¤v¤.....
GBP/USD lost the 2006 bull channel today
Putting the May/June low into focus..
USD/CAD is playing hop-scotch with negativity..

PAR 19:06 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Nyc/ great sense of humor . Very funny

NYC jr 19:03 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
That's tan of the year, PAR..

PAR 19:02 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Man of the year Putin . I was rather thinking Angelo Mozilo of Countrywide Financial . Lol.

Philadelphia Caba 19:01 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Budapest Z 16:59
euro is next disaster...

dc CB 18:59 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Re: Morgan Stanley frm briefing.com...harsh.

Punk Ziegel notes that MS reported a Q4 loss of $3.61/share. MS actually reported negative revs for Q4 and its first quarterly loss in the co's history. Firm says it is apparent that the co had a complete breakdown in its risk mgmt procedures and of its management oversight in its fixed income division. Not only did the co fail to understand the dynamics of the mkts in which it had tens of blns of dollars invested but, and this is more devastating, the co was not monitoring its positions. Firm says the fact though is that this problem is not a one-time event. MS now must tear apart its risk mgmt model and determine why it does not work. It must reduce its trading activity until it can determine where the problems lie. It has a new management team in place but it needs new control mechanisms. Firm says this is definitely the time to be selling this stock not buying it.

GVI john 18:33 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Zurich- Look at the top of the global-View page
>>TOOLS
>> EXCLUSIVE Calculators
>>Futures Calculator

Its all there...

Jeddah Abb 18:32 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Maribor , do you think it is good to short aud/usd from this level for 0.84 target? and what target and time frame you see to short eur/chf ?

Zurich M.S. 18:14 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
thanx to mm

HK Kevin 17:47 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Long small Cable at 1.9938 earlier with 50 pips stop. Hong Kong Ahe twin-indicator has bottoming signals on hourly,4-hr and 8-hr charts.

madrid mm 17:46 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Zurich M.S

please visit

http://www.ozforex.com.au/cgi-bin/forwardRates.asp

Zurich M.S. 17:42 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
If i have for EUR / USD (Direct quote):

e.g. JP Morgan

BID ASK Spread
SPOT: 1.441700 1.441900 0.0002000

12mfrd: -34.39 -24.39

so if i wanted the quotation for USD / EUR, i take the reciprocal of the Spot (BID and ASK changes) but what happens with the frd premium or discount?

Moscow mike 17:36 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:37 GMT December 19, 2007

I felt like GBPUSD was screaming: DONT TASE ME, BRO!

Nice shots, you are da man

Zurich M.S. 17:32 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Hello everybody,

I need urgently some support on 12months currency forwards in the retail market. I have data form bloomberg (frd) on the follwing currency pairs: EUR/USD, ILS/EUR, KRW/USD, MYR/USD, SGD/USD, NZD/USD. If i have only the indirect quotation on spot prices form different banks (e.g.db. ubs. etc) and the frd premium/discount how can i get the direct frd quotation? i understand that the frd price calculates SPOT+PREMIUM = Outwright. Is the premium the same on boths exange directions (direct and indirect)?

lkwd jj 17:24 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:37 GMT December 19, 2007
The "trend" is your friend.
-------------------------
gbp-you were right on there!! nice trade

Maribor 17:22 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Budapest, agree with EURGBP; I am short GBPCHF as I guess EURCHF will go down, so double effect.... Still, I consider 78,14 important barier till end of month. Maybe my targets can be archived with cable falling and EURUSD stalling or rising.

USDCAD target may be 0,97 in a ~month.

Budapest Z 16:59 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Maribor, measured target could extend to ~ 78,50ish imo, but consolidation is likely around 78,00. Eur in 1,40-1,41 zone, where longs would be attractive. Cable is a disaster and think will be a drag til year end. Eurgbp still my "pearl"... ;)).

bilbao pedro 16:59 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
No need to take profits...LET your profits RUN on GBP!!!!

nj jf 16:58 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
actually i cant remember the poster name that sold at 1.4900 on the very last bounce eurusd had before this drop - but excellent analysis- well done as well.

tokyo ginko 16:57 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
i thk the most challenging rough ride was usd/cad, never had i had to manage a 10% up/down movement in a month..(except for the time during the asian financial crisis in 1997)

FWIW...

Have a good holiday all and thank you for those who bravely shared their views.

Have a good profitable 2008, all!

I am signing off now, off to a break..(still short usd/jpy and long yen/sgd, holding till march2008)

Thank you all.

USA Zeus 16:53 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 16:52 GMT December 19, 2007

Many Thanks!

nj jf 16:52 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
my meaning is you stuck to your view and its paid off... congrats.

USA Zeus 16:50 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 16:39 GMT December 19, 2007

Not sure what you mean. The only first trend on this was from all the many flappers who attacked me for sticking to my views.

I was building short on the overshoot and the results are fabulous. Next thing we know BC will post and re-post the position entries and views like he (selectively) did some days back about the one losing position out of hundreds. This all because as he said he has no reason to attack but likes to learn and illustrate trading ideas whether in or out of context. I'm sure he'll be excited to celebrate too- yipee!

GL GT and Cheers to you!

St. Annaland Bob 16:48 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
why the h*ll TAZDA sells USD/JPY here? ... tomorrow, bye!

nj jf 16:39 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
z..... the first trend wasnt so kind to you but the second trend has paid you back in spades.

tokyo ginko 16:38 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
buy small eur/usd 14345 for short term trade

USA Zeus 16:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
The "trend" is your friend.
LOL

Maribor 16:36 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Still think USD index will not exceed 78,14 till year's end...

USA Zeus 16:35 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Ok- GBP/USD second 1/4 covered @ 1.9959 for many figures in giant teflon gains.

Cheers!

USA Zeus 16:29 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Ok- GBP/USD First 1/4 covered @ 1.9994 for massive gains.

Happy Lucky "Trend" Day!

Hong Kong Qindex 16:29 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 2.0065 - 2.0237.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:08 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Barriers are located at 1.9937 - 1.9975 - 1.9989.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:50 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Support at 2.0039


As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 2.0112. Projected supporting point is located at 2.0039 and 1.9937. The distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart indicates that the market have a good chance to head for 1.9754 if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.9937.

HK RF@ 15:34 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
KIS....Will be very hard to push Euro below 1.4150,and if this support will really hold we may have a zooom to around ~1.52.

jkt-aye 15:28 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:22 GMT December 19, 2007
Anyone know the lucky "trend" for GBP/USD? TIA
====================================

i think i need more "zzz" time to answer it ;)

London NYAM 15:25 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
mm//lol. Leaving for the airport in an hour and i just couldnt help it. Stops in OCO limits so whatever happens happens. Have a great holiday.
toronto//you are welcome. best of luck.

pittsburgh pa 15:23 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:22 GMT December 19, 2007

Eur/Usd target by friday?

toronto df 15:22 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:08 GMT December 19, 2007

Thanks a lot Nyam..

USA Zeus 15:22 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Anyone know the lucky "trend" for GBP/USD? TIA

madrid mm 15:18 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve lent $20 billion in 28-day funds at a rate of 4.65 percent in the first of four auctions planned by the central bank to increase the amount of cash available in the banking system.

Financial institutions submitted $61.553 billion in bids, resulting in a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.08. There were 93 bidders, the central bank said in a statement today.

was the ECB part of it ? LOL

jkt-aye 15:17 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
base on H4 chart i got this magnetic level
eurusd 1.4565
usdjpy 112.15
gbpusd 2.0315
usdchf 1.1385
................... i use it as my target if it fit my tech. gtgl

pittsburgh pa 15:17 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have any thoughts on the eur/usd? When is it going to move and what way?

madrid mm 15:16 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, you are a naughty boy waveman
8-)

Temptation , temptation ...

“I generally avoid temptation unless I can't resist it”

Mae West

madrid mm 15:14 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX even if i knew i would not tell you
8-)

i do not know REVdx, but my gut feeling is that forces in euro/usd are at play at the moment AIMHO on bioth side....And yes tis is an old cliche, but one side will have to give up

London NYAM 15:08 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
toronto df 14:40 GMT//hi a bit early to say yet. with any luck, above 2.11, but s/t 2.0220. Id rather trail. (I must admit to taking a small long).

HK REVDAX 15:07 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:03//$ firming up???

HK REVDAX 15:04 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 14:33//Before Mao went to see Buddha, he was the only ONE employer in the labor market of China, and the Chinese government the only ONE importer or buyer of foreign goods---there were smugglers, of course.

madrid mm 15:03 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
i can feel a storm ....8-) Does anybody else fell it ?

8-)

isr jweb 14:51 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
zeus and what about the other hammer, any views?

USA Zeus 14:47 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Dunno about all that but GBP/USD sub 2.0000 will be here with or without luck.

Cheers!

toronto df 14:40 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Nyam

I longed gbp/ usd at 2.0038, S/L 1.9990, what should be my T/P ?
if you r still around

HK RF@ 14:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
I think USD/CHF may form a top between 1.17 to 1.18 B4 any serious retracement. 1.16-1.1650 price range until weekend looks probable.

madrid mm 14:34 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
REVDAX, luck means different things to different people.

But 1 thing i know is that i can not leave my trading to luck alone....8-) Too risky

Halifax CB 14:33 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 14:14 GMT December 19, 2007
In the labor market, you have to prove there is only ONE employer and in the commodities market there is only ONE buyer or seller.

LOL, I'd love to see a citation for that....

HK Kevin 14:32 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone know why NZD suddenly surge from 0.7530 to 0.7570 in 12:00 gmt?

Hong Kong Qindex 14:32 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Support at 1.4314



EUR/USD : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is below 1.4685 and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.4436. A projected supporting point is expected at 1.4314.

HK REVDAX 14:26 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:22 //How about the old concept of 'LUCK'?
Right people, right place and the right time...

Don't you think 'luck' contributes more to winning than technical indicators?

madrid mm 14:22 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX

How about both "communism and capitalism made human existence a matter of production and exchange" ...J Baudrillard

It is just that some , no matter where in the world, are better than others 8-)

HK REVDAX 14:14 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:05//In order to establish the existence of exploitation, you have to prove the absence of alternatives. In the labor market, you have to prove there is only ONE employer and in the commodities market there is only ONE buyer or seller.

If you could establish that, you would then have a case.

HK Kevin 14:06 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:59 GMT, those figures are from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange of the Chinese Government.

madrid mm 14:05 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:59 GMT December 19, 2007

How about exploitation maybe ....?!?!?!?

8-)

If i feel brave enough, i will start trading gold next year 8-O

HK REVDAX 13:59 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:53//How about a citation? TKS

HK REVDAX 13:57 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:53//How did it manage to do so well? Which mathematical investment model is it using?

HK Kevin 13:53 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:43 GMT , US 0.088 billion in 1970 and 14,336.11 billion in Sept 2007.

madrid mm 13:50 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
i see double post again and i did not drink
8-)
i see double post again and i did not drink
8-)

Hong Kong Qindex 13:48 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Resistance at 1.1575

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is positive when it is above 1.1158. The odds are in favor of taking a long position when the market is trading above 1.1470. A projected resistant point is positioning at 1.1575.

Mumbai Deepak 13:45 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:22 / That is actually correct. That industry is known as KPO (Knowledge Process Outsourcing). However, unlike BPO, which is mainly across India, KPO is mainly confined aound Mumbai.

Citi, LEH, MS and many more have their big research outfits in India!

Even Medical Transcription is a big outsourcing sector in India!

WELCOME :)

HK REVDAX 13:43 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone tell me how much US$ the Chinese government had in reserve about 30 years ago when it started switching back to free market operation and how much it is now having? Tks

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:39 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
interesting on Daily EURJPY --

the 50 dma (162.60 now) has briefly crossed below and now again above the 200dma (162.42)...

which is not the case with GBPJPY where the 50 dma has been for a long time below the 200 dma and dipping deeper..

with this in mind if we fail to close below the 20 dma on E/J it might actually be bullish -- looking at USDJPY above its 50 dma and and its 20 dma going to cross from below (which in terms of stronger dollar Especially vs. yen means test of 114)

nj jf 13:36 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:22 GMT December 19, 2007
lol

Hong Kong Qindex 13:28 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to overcome the projected resistant point at 1.1575

Hong Kong Qindex 13:23 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 12:50 GMT - USD/CHF : The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.1410 - 1.1567.

HK Kevin 13:22 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 12:49 GMT, heard that the research arm of big investment banks are mostly based in India nowsaday.

GVI john 13:21 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
GVI Preview of BOJ Decision on Thursday CLICK Here

HK RF@ 13:20 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:13 GMT December 19, 2007
HK RF@ 13:11//I don't know. By the way, do you have a link for the MS debacle? Tks
............................................................................
Are you referring to MS windows VISTA?

madrid mm 13:20 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
REDDAX, absolutely 8-)

Morgan Stanley Reports Worse-Than-Estimated Loss
bloomy!
reuters!

HK REVDAX 13:15 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:10//Even fools can be made heroes in an outright bull mkt...

HK REVDAX 13:13 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK RF@ 13:11//I don't know. By the way, do you have a link for the MS debacle? Tks

HK RF@ 13:11 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 13:08 GMT December 19, 2007

Do you too see USD/CHF for the present time on the way above 1.1600

madrid mm 13:10 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR, blame the loss of MS on David C.... He does a better job for the BoJ and MoF

8-)

Soon we will read , ECB is getting new funds from the foreign SWF.

HK REVDAX 13:08 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK RF@ 13:00 //Actually the common sense of old timers could tell that the subprime thing was going to be a disaster, but the fancy investment 'consultants' who are wearing the 3 pieces suits in Wall Street had to justify their high-roller daily expenditures. This is why they manipulated those maths model in order to churn out more commission as fuel to fire. Once the music stopped, sh*it hit the fan. The land of the free is actually not that free at all. It is a land of controlled news medium and propaganda.

HK REVDAX 13:03 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:59 GMT//The rent is a bit cheaper down there, without a doubt, but what would really help MS is to make itself an online website company with software work outsourced to Chinese and India where the software engineers are mass-produced. These engineers are as comfortable riding bicycles as those driving a Porche in Sillican valley...lol

HK RF@ 13:00 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
All tested math. models are garbe, could not even predict the subprime catastrophy. On the contrary they showed it is next to not to happen.

PAR 12:59 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Hearing Wallstreet headquarters will move to Chinatown . Lol.

HK REVDAX 12:50 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex //Kindly comment on $/CHF. TIA

HK REVDAX 12:49 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:44 GMT December 19//How can that be possible? Morgan Stanley is managed by all that high-flying quantitative economists who invest money carefully with tested maths models and MS is supposed to be on the cutting edge of high-tech development. Have you heard it incorrectly?

Hong Kong Qindex 12:49 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
CHF/AUD : Resistance at 1.0201 - 1.0207

Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (1.0198) - (1.0308)


Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.0198 - 1.0308. The downside targeting points are 0.9882 and 0.9963.

GENEVA DS 12:45 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR...

if they have to disclose the full risk in their books , it will be around 3.6 Trillion USD... as this is the outstanding DERIVATIVE amount.... it is basically all outside their balance sheet.... HOW CAN THEY (OR..WE...) solve this problem ?....

PAR 12:44 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Chinese investors coming to the rescue of Morgan Stanley thru a $ 5 billion convertible .

St. Annaland Bob 12:25 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/SEK is in overshot region, shorts may pay very nice during the coming 3-4 months ... happy trades!

isr jweb 12:20 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
it looks like its really putting up a fight..

GVI john 12:18 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Updated Daily Chart Points...
GVI Technical Chart Points. Or look under "Tools" in navigation bar on top for "Chart Points".


Updated Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

NZD/USD

Access accurate and free GVI

Helsinki iw 12:10 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Stockhom, don't eat the yellow snow.

Stockholm za 12:08 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   

Of all the millions of indicators & systems out there, it is very much surprising that you guys cannot find just two that will help you make an inform decision….

Here if a simple freebie for you….
Failure of EUR/USD to close out this weeks high, says it will only go down.
Close criteria on the time frame used is key..
Happy trading….

PAR 12:07 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/19/news/Europe-Central-Bank.php

slv sam 12:01 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
techniclly euro should go to 1.46
fundamentally euro should go 1.42
you choose ) GT

bilbao pedro 11:49 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
does no one want to trade or comment on something lately!!!

Gen dk 11:48 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

isr jweb 11:28 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
anyone besides jeru any idea on where eur/usd is going?

PAR 11:24 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
As far as I understand it Northern Rocks loan book is simultaniously used as collateral for the BOE and as collateral for its offbalance unit Granite . So not sure BOE will gets its money back .

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
ECB's [TRICHET] says that emerging Asian currencies including the Yuan should be allowed to appreciate whilst he says that G7 has a joint position on the Cny which had called for an acceleration in the pace of the Yuan's rise. Run of the mill stuff here with the US Treasury department also set to dodge the issue of naming China as an fx manipulator again when it publishes its report at 21.00GMT. //igm

HK NN 10:32 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Test

Jerus ML 10:29 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
4380

Hong Kong YH 10:29 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Jerusalem ML 10:23 GMT December 19, 2007
May I know your entry pt?

Jerusalem ML 10:23 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Hi All

tip of the day -

Buy EUR/USD
Target by friday - 1.4500
good luck

Gen dk 10:16 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London NYAM 10:12 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
FWIW: As I am just watching I noticed that GBPUSD is close to my target for bottom at 2.0060. f i were tradin i would long it here 2.0060 with a stop at 2.0009 and 1.9989. I think the five wave formation on larger scales is complete and there is a daily trend line at 2.0019. Like the r/r of this. Dose of salt.

Hong Kong Ahe 10:04 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:51 GMT - Hi Kaprikorn, if EURJPY dont rebounce to near 162.60/80, dont enter the trade. Just let it go. If it breaks 162.20, then go to sell EURJPY again for spicy pips of 161.70/80. But NOW AUDJPY and NZDJPY are lagging behind. It is greater chance to short it now at current position to gain more. AUDJPY looks for target 96.50, 95.50 if GBPJPY keeps moving down to 225/223. 97.50 as stop. GLGT.

PAR 09:59 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
This story gets better by the day .
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2007/dec/19/creditcrunch.economics

madrid mm 09:57 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Reuters
... futures rallied on Wednesday after minutes from the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee showed members voted 9-0 for a cut in interest rates.

Gen dk 09:51 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:51 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HK YH //
you really work for citifx?
isn't there any problems for posting in a public forum?
can you share some analytics you got there?

Amman wfakhoury 09:50 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
for 20-30 spicy crispy pips short gbp.usd above 2.0100

bilbao pedro 09:48 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
AI, well done....GREAT!!!

Hong Kong YH 09:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:12 GMT December 19, 2007
What a pity! Current EUR/JPY is only 162.34

LA AI 09:35 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
bilbao pedro 09:24 GMT December 19, 2007
here is your chance again on GBP!!!

=====================================

I grabbed 60 pips.
Thanks.

Hasselt Red 09:32 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USA 08:54 GMT December 19

an idea is to start as an introducing broker with a firm. It doesn't depend so much on a diploma wether you qualify or not, rather the results you've accumulated over the years.

Amman wfakhoury 09:31 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
for more spicy pips from eur.jpy..you can sell after good rise.

LA AI 09:30 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
I took it. Pedro.

Gen dk 09:29 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 09:29 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
GBp moves at the moment is due to pre MPC meeting in a few seconds and illiquid market 8-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:26 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
AHE ......
great thanx for your advice - I watch my mistake now as I closed at the exactly time it broke down the Support line..

btw - I remember quite well from BC comments that I have to watch EUR/GBP along with the majors as there are done some moves that precede moves in the majors but E/G has been an enigma for me ...

bilbao pedro 09:24 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
here is your chance again on GBP!!!

Hong Kong YH 09:24 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
What a strong rebound of GBP!

LA AI 09:22 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
bilbao pedro 09:18 GMT December 19, 2007
AI, why not, take advantage of iliquidity...go with the trend...sell high GBP and run it....

=============================================

Thanks pedro!

bilbao pedro 09:18 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
AI, why not, take advantage of iliquidity...go with the trend...sell high GBP and run it....

Hong Kong Ahe 09:17 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:58 GMT - Hi Kaprikorn, EURJPY is an oil currency and also a hedged currency used by BOJ to manipulate the strength of USDJPY. Most of the time, it has weird movement or stagnant all days without any spicy pips. Thus, dont just relate it solely to the Stock index movement. Moreover, this year, Big boys are in a newer fashion to use the fourth currency as pivot to hedge the risk instead of using Options. Thus, you need to open 4 charts - EURJPY, EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP to watch the move simultaneously. It will give you a better perspectives of the forex market of "Where it is going?...". Most of the time, we cannot enter the trade at its turning point (top or bottom), so pay a bit patience. I know it needs time to train ourselves. GLGT.

madrid mm 09:13 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
link for previous post

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1850111020071219

madrid mm 09:12 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Financial markets on Wednesday will pore over the results of an unprecedented $20 billion cash auction conducted by the Federal Reserve in a search for signs it is helping soothe troubled credit markets.

The Fed auctioned off the money on Monday as part of a coordinated move by central banks around the globe to thaw frozen credit markets. It will release the auction results at 10 a.m. (1500 GMT) on Wednesday.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:12 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
closed E/J from 162.98 at 70...

still not bold enough for position trading..

indonesia solo raden mas 09:11 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
have a nice long holiday... :-)

Hong Kong Qindex 09:11 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY : Resistance at 98.70 - 98.99


Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (96.92) - (98.19)


Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot center at 96.92 - 98.19. The downside targeting points are 94.93 and 96.07. A projected resistant level is positioning at 98.70 - 98.99.

LA AI 09:11 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Not a good day to trade GBP! Today, it is too choppy.

bilbao pedro 09:04 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid. what do we need investopedia.com for???

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:58 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Ahe...

got scared a bit yesterday with the test of 163.40 - but today the postion looks better - the breach of the 20 dayMA at 162.59 will support the bearish scenario as it held 2 consecutive days by now..

madrid mm 08:56 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- J. Kyle Bass, a hedge fund manager from Dallas, strode into a New York conference room in August 2006 to pitch his theory about a looming housing market meltdown to senior executives of a Wall Street investment bank.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&refer=home&sid=aC5bZpU8S6f4

madrid mm 08:56 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USA 08:49 GMT December 19, 2007

visit www.investopedia.com

bilbao pedro 08:55 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
amman, 113.50 seems topish on Yen...u reckon too???

USA 08:54 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
can any 1 give me the link for becoming a broker & taking p the exams

bilbao pedro 08:53 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Amman, tks pal, from 94 to 71....Nice 23 pips!!!
tks

Amman wfakhoury 08:53 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:14 GMT December 19, 2007
20-30 spicy pips if we short eur.jpy now 162 87..sell another if rise.
=====
exited 162.65

LA AI 08:51 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Paris ib 08:47 GMT December 19, 2007
USA 08:44 GMT December 19, 2007
Yes there is ...the only pre-requisite is that you know how to lie and deceive...just like our friend Fakhouri here.

==========================================

N0t very nice!

USA 08:49 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
IS there any traning plz help me

PAR 08:44 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
I want my money back .

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119803055772838443.html?mod=hps_europe_whats_news

USA 08:44 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
HOW CAN SOME 1 BECOME BROKER ...IS THERE ANY EXAMS?

isr is 08:31 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Amman, were in...tks...

PAR 08:29 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
German IFO December Business optimism probably will show some improvement as record exports , falling unemployment and a strong performance of the Dax are seen as helping business sentiment . Looking for IFO above 105 .

Amman wfakhoury 08:14 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
20-30 spicy pips if we short eur.jpy now 162 87..sell another if rise.

madrid mm 08:10 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Your Belief System is Your Trading Style -
Moves in markets are a result of mass psychology. We make money in the markets by being masters of human psychology and supply and demand. It is well known that trading is 90% mental. Winning in the markets is more defined by your mental make-up than your trading style. What is more important than chart reading is to first understand how people think. Click here!

PAR 08:03 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
ECB s huge cash injection has market worried that European banks still have huge undisclosed subprime losses. Those losses will only be known next year when banks publish audited reports . In contrast Us banks directly seem to hold few subprime paper. This subprime saga reminds me Michael Milkens junk bond story .

isr is 07:39 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
pls keep us posted for those juicy pips!!!

slv sam 07:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
euro sinking sub 1.43 today!GT

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
[USD/YEN] hemmed into a rough 113.20-40 range in Asia, testament to the lack of interest that is pervading fx markets and will likely hold into the new year. Several speculative attempts to push trade convincingly above 113.50 have already failed and will surely lead to a build in magnet stops under 113.00. However, with the Usd underpinned in general there is interest to buy ahead of these with real money complementing speculative buyers. Japanese real money is also expected to lean on the Yen ahead of year end with domestic bank traders still making much of anticipated Toshin flows. Commercial Japan also active though and selling from 113.50. Life cos also selling similar strength, but this felt to be a jobbing exercise against a net long position. / IGM

Amman wfakhoury 07:35 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
bilbao pedro 07:32 GMT December 19, 2007
======
till now there is no good indicator for sweet trade...may be
there are opportunities for spicy pips.

bilbao pedro 07:32 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Amman, sweet pips!!!LOL

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:31 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
the Yen is so stubborn - no movement there in like 10 hours it's stuck at 113.20-30 range..

Amman wfakhoury 07:31 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 07:26 GMT December 19, 2007
====
wish you good night and sweet dreams after profitable day.

Alaska Moon 07:28 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
corection.... I closed it all at 2.0115....

Alaska Moon 07:26 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:11 GMT December 19, 2007
========
Cris...That was a good call yesterday....I took it with 2 lots, took out one early, was able to resell on a rise, and closed it all out at 2.015...It was my bed time !! LOL....Thanks for the call...
Moon

Amman wfakhoury 07:25 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
sorry..what you mean by sweep ?

Lima Big Bertha 07:24 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 07:11 GMT December 19, 2007
Amman wfakhoury 08:40 GMT December 18, 2007
Subject:
Amman wfakhoury 06:54 GMT December 18, 2007
CORRECTION
-----------

Amman wfakhoury 06:41 GMT December 18, 2007
GBP/USD
=======

BUY level if breaks 20230 tp 20290
Sell Level if breaks 20185 tp20100.

Break should be confirm by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

mostly movement will be in one way direction
==================----=========----=============

Duz horrizontlle line cownt as mostlee one whay direction?

bilbao pedro 07:19 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
amman , whats your daily sweep pips on GBPJPY???

madrid mm 07:11 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Have a gr8 day !!!

may the waves and force be with you !!!

8-)

If a turtle doesnt have a shell, is it naked or homeless ?

Amman wfakhoury 07:11 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:40 GMT December 18, 2007
Subject:
Amman wfakhoury 06:54 GMT December 18, 2007
CORRECTION
-----------

Amman wfakhoury 06:41 GMT December 18, 2007
GBP/USD
=======

BUY level if breaks 20230 tp 20290
Sell Level if breaks 20185 tp20100.

Break should be confirm by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

mostly movement will be in one way direction

=====
level 20185 break confirmed

=======exited 20100

madrid mm 07:08 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
GMT

08:30 Sweden Riksbank interest rate decision, no change to 4.0% repo rate eyed/

09:00 ECB Pres Trichet testimony before EU parliamentary committee.

09:30 BoE MPC December 5-6 minutes, 6-3 to cut interest rates then.

17:30 US TsySec Paulson speech in Long Beach, California.



[USD/JPY] and JPY crosses did little in Asia, holding in tight ranges andconsolidating gains earlier this week. USD/JPY traded a 113.21-41 range, well-within the 113.05-54 parameters set overnight. Offers remain ahead of 113.55with stops above here and 113.75. Offers are interspersed between these levelsand ahead of presumed option barriers at 114.00. Stops are seen above thebarriers. Bidding interest below is seen ahead of 113.00 and trailing down to aslow as 111.90-112.00. Light trader stops are mixed in below 113.00 and thedouble bottom at 112.70-75.

Themarkets are thinning quickly in Asia with many foreign players in Tokyo alreadyseen to have left the country for the holidays.

[EUR/USD] opened in Asia at 1.4415 after spending another day pivoting around1.4400 overnight. A narrow 1.4404-24 range was seen in Asia with EUR/USDmaintaining a bid tone throughout. Attempts higher were capped by standingoffers from 1.4425 to 1.4450. Japanese sales of EUR/JPY on rallies also helped
to discourage EUR/USD attempts higher. Stops were noted above 1.4450 however.
Bids trail down from 1.4400 although some stops were mixed in below 1.4380 and1.4365.
[Other Asset Markets]

[The Nikkei] did little today, ranging between 15,083.50-15,267.75 and mostly innegative territory in the afternoon. Going into the TSE close, it is indicatedat its lows, down 124.36 points or 0.82% on the day. [TOPIX] is indicated at
1460.92, down 8.85 points or 0.6%. Other bourses in the region were more buoyantwith the [Hang Seng] and [KOSPI] still up relatively large.

[JGBs] and [Euroyen] futures were well bid today with Euroyen in particularracing up as credit market constraints eased following central bank cashinfusions overnight. Until the central bank cash infusions announced last week,many overseas players looked to cap relatively cheap yen funds, converting thesemonies into USD and EUR. Such interest looks to have abated. The yield on the
benchmark 10-year JGBs traded down to 1.500% from 1.535% at the close yesterday.

Mumbai NS 06:58 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Is it ready steady go lol!

madrid mm 06:58 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
hello and gm fx Jedi 8-)

What do you call a sheep with no legs?
A cloud

msc masqara 06:51 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Till year end expect moves in crosses.

Syd 06:25 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
£11bn crisis fund to keep bank rates downThe Bank of England moved to stem the impact of the global credit crisis on Britain today by offering an extra £11bn inemergency funds for retail and commercial banks. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandard/frame.html?in_bottom=http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/news

BaKu NY_666 06:13 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Your respected view on GBP/USD dr. Qindex?

Thanx in advance

Amman wfakhoury 06:00 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
Market will operate in narrow range for today.

isr jweb 03:40 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
good to see you zeus. cam u elaborate?

USA Zeus 03:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:10 GMT December 18, 2007
Markets breathe in and breathe out.
EUR/USD and GBP/USD to increase volatility over next 24 hrs considerably from 1.4417 and 2.0170 respectively.

____________________________________________________
Get set- Volatility break out is coming.
Likely a counter-contra.

Happy Day!

Hong Kong Qindex 03:34 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : Resistance at 100.37 - 100.50


Weekly Cycle Pivot Center : (93.51) - (98.88) 



Remarks : The market is going to consolidate within the weekly cycle pivot center at 93.51 - 98.88. The downside targeting points are 93.69 and 95.34. A projected supporting level is expected at 94.18 - 94.24.

isr jweb 03:00 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
LA BFL 01:54 GMT December 19, 2007 - - gold was meant to go up anyway. read earlier posts from last week. its the season..

my laugh doesn't need to do anything to the market, if the market will go long well go with it..

gt and gl

FW CS 02:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
LA BFL 01:54 GMT December 19, 2007

isr jweb 00:11 GMT December 19, 2007

Yes very strange reaction. Euro has been bid since that came out??? 500 billion is a further diltion of about 3.5% in one day to the total EZ M3 and the market acts like nothing happened. Gold seemed to have noticed it though. If a marekt cannot go down on bad news it is a market that wants to go up....

LA BFL 01:54 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
isr jweb 00:11 GMT December 19, 2007
FW CS 18:49 GMT December 18, 2007 - i liked your post.

What amazes me is that the market took no notice at all of the half a trillion euro pounded on the market, either they maniuplated silence and are waiting for the "retaliers" to long, or they are just stuffing away their euros for another rainy day.

And now ubs, which i assume are a big beneficial of this major bailout, are saying that the usd need to "find itself" because major countries want to dump it..

i cant stop laughing - all the way to the bank


---------------------

Too bad your laugh means nothing too in the market ^_^

tokyo ginko 01:00 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
was off desk...back

likewise i am short eur/jpy..and if 113.50 is broken, i will add more usd/jpy shorts.

isr jweb 00:37 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
here is the link to this dollar being stretched "exactly" when the ecb adds 2% of its money supply on one day..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=arfPcg8g2Qo4&refer=currency

isr jweb 00:11 GMT December 19, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 18:49 GMT December 18, 2007 - i liked your post.

What amazes me is that the market took no notice at all of the half a trillion euro pounded on the market, either they maniuplated silence and are waiting for the "retaliers" to long, or they are just stuffing away their euros for another rainy day.

And now ubs, which i assume are a big beneficial of this major bailout, are saying that the usd need to "find itself" because major countries want to dump it..

i cant stop laughing - all the way to the bank