Forex Forum Archive for 12/26/2007

USA BAY 22:49 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, Could you kindly share your view on eur/cad and gbp/chf pls. tia

Syd 20:09 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
The RBA, along with the Federal Reserve in the US, has been one of the most active central banks in pumping liquidity into the financial system.

"The mid part of 2008 is more uncertain. The Australian economy will still have good forward momentum," Mr Jolly said.

"The uncertainty is the speed of the spill-over from the credit crunch and a slowing US and global economy.

"The longer term is clearer with a key theme for me being that countries with big current account deficits like Australia and NZ are most at risk from a prolonged credit crunch."
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22973593-643,00.html

Manchester SA 19:11 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury

Your comments a greatly appreciated Amman.
After having DayTraded the 1m, 5m and 15m charts for so long, I decided to have a go at the daily's and the hourly's.

The stress level is almost non existent!

Thanks for your thoughts.

SA

Amman wfakhoury 19:07 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Manchester SA 17:57 GMT December 26, 2007
Amman wfakhoury
======
gbp.jpy mostly heading twd 228.00

Amman wfakhoury 18:21 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Manchester SA 17:57 GMT December 26, 2007
Amman wfakhoury
=====
thks SA....I am an expert in daily and hourly movement of the market...I dont care for long term predictions.

my prediction for today was for gbp.usd , usd.cad , eur.jpy
I may post for gbp.jpy tmw at 0600 gmt.

Manchester SA 17:57 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury

You seem to have quite an excellent track record in calling trades, can I ask if you've got a view on the GBP/JPY and where its perhaps headed for by the end of the month?

Many thanks in advance for any comment you're able to provide.

Regards to all.
SA

Rye, NY et 17:55 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 17:37 GMT December 26, 2007
Nice call on Eur/Jpy...Good Trades...

Amman wfakhoury 17:37 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 15:01 GMT December 26, 2007
Amman wfakhoury 06:27 GMT December 26, 2007
CORRECTION
EUR/JPY

BUY if breaks level 164.90 tp 16520 16565
Sell if breaks level 164.00 tp 16355 16310

break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

price will be in vibration pattern.


==========
tp1 16520 hit and heading twd tp2 165.65

====
exited @165.56

PAR 16:01 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Added liquidity by central banks is fuelling nice rally in carry trades and commodities .

Hong Kong Qindex 15:13 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : Resistance at 232.95

As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market is positive when it is above 224.03. The upper barrier is located at 230.49 // 231.79 and the lower barrier is positioning at 216.27 // 217.56. A projected resistant point is expected at 232.95.

Amman wfakhoury 15:07 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 06:06 GMT December 26, 2007

Vibration pattern may give better entry point after confirmation the level.

example. gbp.usd may buy level confirmed @19825 then wait
till better entry point such as 19800-10.
==========
pls note that I took 19805 in gbp.usd
and 164.70 in eur.jpy as entry points..according to the above recommendation.

PAR 15:03 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Lower dollar and ample liquidity sends oil above $ 96 .

Amman wfakhoury 15:01 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 06:27 GMT December 26, 2007
CORRECTION
EUR/JPY

BUY if breaks level 164.90 tp 16520 16565
Sell if breaks level 164.00 tp 16355 16310

break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

price will be in vibration pattern.


==========
tp1 16520 hit and heading twd tp2 165.65

PAR 14:44 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV3TsKARpFKI&refer=home

Amman wfakhoury 14:33 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 05:47 GMT December 26, 2007


GBP/USD
SELL if breaks level 19760 tp 19745 19730
BUY if breaks level 19818 tp 19835 19850

break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.
price will be in vibration pattern
=========
tp 19835 19850 hit.

PAR 14:16 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Weakening yen helping Toyota while Ford near alltime low.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/26/business/26toyota.html?_r=1&ref=worldbusiness&oref=slogin

Hong Kong Qindex 13:08 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF: Critical Resistance 1.6736

The market momentum is strong when it is above the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.6414 - 1.6670. The pattern of the monthly cycle charts indicates that the market is likely to consolidate between 1.6604 and 1.6699 for the time being. The current expected trading range is 1.6642 - 1.6728.

isr jweb 13:01 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
bali. bought eur at 1.4365 target 1/4520 = stop 1.428

Bali teddybear 12:20 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
sell EUR/USD now....target is 1.4365.Big target is 1.4270,chart weekly

Bali teddybear 11:56 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
This is real!Thx to Frankie in bandung.Last time I read ur suggest, u told us to sell GBP.The 3 falling peaks have been tested. I have a short position om GBP/USD from 2.0165..below the neck line wich is 2.0173...and before the christmas the GBP/USD is fall to 1.9756. Now running in 1.9813..that's mean..I have a floating profit about 352 pips.WOww...that's amazing!!thx alot for frankiebandung.But the target has not finish yet...It's still going down...the target is 1.9250.So..let's take short position on GBP/USD...target is still enough to make a big profit for us.
Thx alot frankiebdg...I'll wait for ur latest suggest

Majorca JAS 11:36 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
European Market Update

***Economic Data***

- (FR) Nov Housing Starts -1/1% v 10.5%

- (FR) Nov Housing Permits -9.4% v 3.2% prior

- (SP) Nov Producer Prices M/M 0. 6% v 0.6%e, Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.3%e



*** SPEAKERS/COMMENTS ***

- BoJ's Kamezaki says they have no predetermined schedule for rate hikes, will have dialogue with markets; Japan's economic growth is slowing, risks to U.S. economy rising

- Bank of Korea minutes says country will not enter stagflation unless oil rises sharply



INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- China to Raise Export Duty On Steel Billet to 25%, effective Jan 1

- Korea's Hyundai Steel to raise some steel prices by up to 7.5%

Trade The News Market Update System. To manage your alert preferences click on Portfolio button at the top of the News Station module.
_______________________________________________________________
www.tradethenews.com - [email protected] - 001. 212.884.8080

PAR 10:46 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Sales at Merrill . Buying at $ 48 . Unbelievable sales.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119862859683349785.html?mod=hps_us_whats_news

Frankie Bandung 10:26 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Thankyou Syd .... for the infomation.and this is the full news ...

Sterling made the headlines earlier this year by breaking though the $2 mark, but the currency is unlikely to reach such heady levels again in 2008 as the UK economy weakens, a clutch of the City's biggest banks now predicts.

The sell-off, which started in foreign-exchange dealing floors last week, saw the pound end at $1.9807 and €1.4411 in a shortened trading day in London on Christmas Eve.

According to HSBC the sell-off is just beginning and will see the pound slump to $1.80 by the end of next year.

advertisementIn one of the more bearish outlooks circulating around the City, strategists at HSBC argue that a combination of lower interest rates, slowing global growth and falling oil prices will leave the currency in a "perfect storm".

Experts are divided on how rapidly the pound will weaken, with the timing likely to be dependent on when and by how much the Bank of England reduces interest rates.

The currency dropped below the $2 mark last week after minutes from the Bank of England's meeting this month showed all nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to cut rates to 5.5pc. The unanimous decision prompted many economists to predict that rates could now end 2008 at 4pc.

Barclays, which forecasts the pound to fall to $1.93 by the start of the summer, has not ruled out the MPC cutting rates twice more in the first quarter of 2008 - more than traders currently expect.

However, the biggest risk to sterling comes from the City experiencing a severe slowdown next year, according to Barclays' David Woo. "Sentiment towards the UK and the pound can't be more dark and pessimistic than it is now," he said.


GL/GT

Como Perrie 10:25 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
I see now JP that's for tomorrow.. also of note late tomorrow there's lotsa to watch from Japan CPIs I'll maybe work some there the yen if see some

Como Perrie 10:20 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
many tks JP.. am just sidelined at current mostly, will get a look there too. so far thin overall.. me was just wathching those BOJ minutes at first saw no rates hikes commens and then that some rates might have to be adjusted higher the same person said... hence do not trade schizofrenic central bankers better, they'll never say clearly one direction in advance what they are going to do next..but overall asean economies are stronger, yesterday saw Toyota surpassed GM in global auto markets

Mtl JP 10:13 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:54 / from G-V Economic Calendar:

Dec 27, 2007 13:30 US Nov Durable Goods +3.5% -0.2%
Dec 27, 2007 15:00 US CB Cons Confidence 86.8 87.3

Lepanto 10:08 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q , Seasons greetings to you. apppreciate any monthly charting/guideline on EUR/CHF. TIA.

Como Perrie 09:57 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
beside might even happen just nothing so interesting so will just observe some into year end at most

Como Perrie 09:54 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
coupla minor things left here and there beside but not worth to mention so small stuff, just watching early phases here and there...yen would not touch much into year end most probably...except you do not look for some pips here and there short term yen most probably range squeezing next days to me...cable might get some relief into 1.99 or so imo... cad might lag or test the upper figure .99 maybe with some slow motion activity squeezing here and there the range

Como Perrie 09:50 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
yeap from as from 9 to 14 decemebers usdcad short eurcad short

beside had some hedges yen longs which have cut be4 xmas

now mostly flat as year end..even if there are coupla interesting things but market is thin

isr jweb 08:55 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
hi como. you were long cad?

Syd 08:52 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Goodbye to the $2 pound in 2008
Sterling made the headlines earlier this year by breaking though the $2 mark, but the currency is unlikely to reach such heady levels again in 2008 as the UK economy weakens, a clutch of the City's biggest banks now predicts.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=K2E4HZ
A0LF0P1QFIQMGCFFOAVCBQUIV0?xml=/money/2007/12/26/cnster126.xml

Como Perrie 08:33 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
fwiw have quit all canada possies I had from coupla weeks ago...

happy new year

isr jweb 08:14 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
peter - the markets are open. gl

Amman wfakhoury 06:27 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
CORRECTION
EUR/JPY

BUY if breaks level 164.90 tp 16520 16565
Sell if breaks level 164.00 tp 16355 16310

break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

price will be in vibration pattern.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:27 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Heading Towards 0.7312

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is positive when it is above 0.7235. The upward momentum should be strong enough for the market to tackle 0.7309. The weekly cycle pivot center is located at 0.7212 - 0.7291. Projected resistant points are located at 0.7361 and 0.7376.

Amman wfakhoury 06:06 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   

Vibration pattern may give better entry point after confirmation the level.

example. gbp.usd may buy level confirmed @19825 then wait
till better entry point such as 19800-10.

Amman wfakhoury 05:53 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Vibration pattern may give better entry point after confirmation the level.

Amman wfakhoury 05:47 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   


GBP/USD
SELL if breaks level 19760 tp 19745 19730
BUY if breaks level 19818 tp 19835 19850

break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.
price will be in vibration pattern

Amman wfakhoury 05:46 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY

BUY if breaks level 164.90 tp 16510 16540
Sell if breaks level 164.00 tp 16355 16310

break should be confirmed by closing of 3 bars 5 mins chart.

price will be in vibration pattern.

Sydney Peter 05:33 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Merry Xmas!

Could anyone tell me when the censored open for trading?

thanks

Frankie Bandung 03:19 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
short GBPUSD for 50 pips .... maybe more ....
GL/GT

Frankie Bandung 03:17 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
Hallo .... Merry Christmas and Happy New Year ....
GL / GT

Hong Kong Qindex 01:49 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY: Resistance at 114.47

As shown in the pattern of the monthly cycle charts the market is positive when it is trading above 113.19. Projected resistant points are located at 114.86 and 115.32. The weekly cycle pivot centers are located at 114.05 - 114.08. The current expected trading range is 113.61 - 114.47.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:43 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Resistance at 0.8837

As shown in the monthly cycle projected series the market was able to find support around the lower barrier at 0.8521 // 0.8582. The market is consolidating between 0.8582 and 0.8826. The mid-point reference between these two projected chart points is 0.8704. Projected barriers are located at 0.8712 and 0.8720. A projected resistant point is positioning at 0.8837. The weekly cycle pivot center is located at 0.8501 - 0.8638.

isr jweb 00:13 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
kapikorn, how was your holiday? ive been hearing forever these "fair" prices, like euro fair price is parity, and gbp at 1.4 - - but you know 15% drawdown... thats quite some stop..maybe would try 1000 dollar lots...

Sofia Kaprikorn 00:05 GMT December 26, 2007 Reply   
a fund manager form a swiss house said USDCHF has a fair value of 1.70 (1.15 at present) - but he favours the long dollar Vs. Swiss frank with a leverage that could withstand a 15% drawdown..