Forex Forum Archive for 02/1/2007

USA BAY 23:56 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/NZD] The cross found very strong support at the 1.1240/50 level which prov...
[AUD/NZD] The cross found very strong support at the 1.1240/50 level which provided the springboard for it to reach the initial target level of 1.1390/00 before slight profit taking pull the cross slightly lower to 1.1340/50 level. The cross held at the 1.1280 level for most of the Asian and early European time zone but early NY saw aggressive selling in the NZD/USD by US names which saw the pair dipped below the 0.6800 level and that was enough to propel the cross towards initial resistance at 1.1330 and triggering stops above the 1.1340/50 level. With the NZD/USD looking like its going to fall out of bed, a test of the 1.1500 and 1.1600 level is not out of the question. Market awaits the release of the Aust trade data at 0.0030 GMT. Buying orders at 1.1300 by US ibvt house will support while selling orders at 1.1360 by a French name will limit upside gains.

Philadelphia Caba 23:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd, once again..what tp are you looking for if you get that long, pls? tia!

USA BAY 23:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
[AUST DATA PREVIEW] Australia's trade deficit is set to have widened back out t...
[AUST DATA PREVIEW] Australia's trade deficit is set to have widened back out to $1bn in Dec after it narrowed in to $843m over Nov. Exports risk to have fallen sharply on the mth, weighed by the effects of the drought and softer commodity prices; whilst merchandise data already released implies the value of goods imports rebound by a s.a 1.7% on the mth, compounding the deficit increase. Sifting through the data, focus will be on whether export volumes have managed to rise on the yr; whilst a jump in consumption imports will be warily eyed by the RBA, proving that domestic demand has remained robust. Data due Frid 00.30GMT.

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Philadelphia Caba 23:43 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
tks Syd, gt!

Syd 23:39 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 23:32 the numbers are quite unpredictable most analyst get it totally wrong, at the moment still feel market unsure over the G7 however if I see a range mid 76 would be a buyer . Thats unless the data today is a complete horror number

USA BAY 23:37 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
US Treasury Sec [PAULSON] said the [YEN] is trading in an open market bas...
US Treasury Sec [PAULSON] said the [YEN] is trading in an open market based on fundamentals, in contrast with China's YUAN. That means, it is "fair" to interpret that he has little immediate concern about the YEN, Paulson said in an interview with Bloomberg. Clarifying his comments to the Senate Banking Cmte on Wed in which he said he was watching the yen "very, very carefully," Paulson said he looked at all the major currencies of the world and that he "may be looking at it (YEN) a bit more carefully" only because of some publicity on the issue coming out of Europe. But the YEN's value is still set in an open, competitive marketplace. The YEN may weaken slightly on Paulson's clarification as it indicates the market may have misinterpreted his earlier remark and there is no change in the US" FX policy.

USA BAY 23:35 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/USD] After reaching an earlier high of 0.7769 the pair gradually ...
[AUD/USD] After reaching an earlier high of 0.7769 the pair gradually ran out of steam and pull back to an o/n low of 0.7735. Despite several US economic releases, movement in the pair remained fairly subdued as market awaits the all important US Non-Farm-Payroll due at 13.30 GMT. The goods and services balance will be release at 0.0030 GMT and the market is anticipating a widening to A$1 bln from A$0.8 previous. A number near expectation will not have any impact on the Aud but a smaller number may trigger some buying of the pair. Buying orders by a UK Clearer at 0.7700 will provide support while selling orders at 0.7780 by a Dutch name will limit upside gains.

Philadelphia Caba 23:32 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd, do you think if AU Trade Balance will see worst reading than expected 1.1B, aussie can fall thru 7700-7690?

Cannes Oil man 22:06 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
BTW dc CB, include PRICE/VOL , it's really instructive on the POTASH...Basically around 110 (if it ever goes back down there) , sticking a very long term CALL should produce wonderful effects.(longest leap available if possible).

Cannes Oil man 22:02 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
DC , I know many people will think that something that went from 30 to 160(in a year) is a sell...But to me POTASH is going to explode to the upside..

Syd 21:58 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
China's markets fall amid bubble fear

February 02, 2007

THE booming Chinese stock market - the world's second-best performer of the past year - fell for a third day yesterday, with the nation's fourth-biggest brokerage, Haitong Securities, declaring that "a correction is under way".

A market plunge of nearly 5per cent on Wednesday was triggered by a blunt warning from Mr Cheng that the current speculative frenzy was creating a bubble and many investors risked losing their money if it burst.

"There is a bubble going on. Investors should be concerned about the risks," he said.

"But in a bull market, people will invest relatively irrationally. Every investor thinks they can win. But many will end up losing. But that is their risk and their choice."

He said it was not up to authorities to take administrative measures to stop people pouring their money into the stock market. "The market is based on people's behaviour. Investors will have to learn their own lessons," he said.

On Monday, the Shanghai exchange's chief, Geng Liang, warned that the recent record trading volumes of above $US11 billion a day could cause the electronic trading platform to crash.

Bloomberg, AFP

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21155703-643,00.html

dc CB 21:53 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:41 GMT February 1, 2007
Potash man? LOL!

Potash Corp

Syd 21:52 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD likely to maintain bearish bias into this week's close as ongoing jitters ahead of next week's G7 meeting weighs, encouraging market participants to trim back carry trade positions, says Bank of NZ currency strategist Danica Hampton; notes NZD/JPY has already fallen about 3.5% this week, last 82.45. "It is also worth noting, that the maturity profile of Uridashi and Eurokiwi is relatively heavy over the next couple of months, particularly late February/early March."

LKWD JJ 21:37 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
looks like banks makin a killing here as mkts sway to and fro without too much commiment to go in any direction for a length of time.

USA BAY 21:25 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
USDCHF Offers Opportunities For All NFP Possibilities

Thursday, 01 February 2007 20:05:53 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst


Since January 10th, USDCHF has entered a range that has produced frequent swings and false runs, while at the same time defining tradable levels. The channel top is more clearly defined around 1.2560/75 with a number of tails testifying to the attention the market is showing it. What's more, the 73.6% fib of the 1.2773-1.1878 bear wave at 1.2536 has yet to see a daily candle close above it. Conversely, the downside hold out is slightly more vague with the even 1.24 level showing strength, but the 100-day SMA at 1.2388 acting as a better net for selling. With the event risk inherent in tomorrow's payroll report, setups for multiple outcomes are available. Should price action settle down near 1.24 and a strong print rouse dollar bids, a break below the 100-day SMA, and optimally the 200-day SMA at 1.2351, would offer a promising short. On the other hand, if the indicator disappoints, a move to the top of the range may develop. Even if the number is largely inline, a slow rise may evolve as technicals hold tight.

Syd 21:24 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Carry-Trade

Australian interest rates have probably peaked at 6.25 percent, BNP said. The Norwegian central bank will raise its key rate to 4.75 percent by year-end and 6 percent by the end of 2008, BNP forecasts. Norway's central bank has raised the benchmark deposit rate eight times to 3.75 percent from a record low in June 2005.

The Norwegian krone will become popular with investors engaging in so-called carry trades, when investors borrow yen or Swiss francs to invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets, Redeker wrote.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=azPqtI8o6ZNQ&refer=currency

USA BAY 20:58 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan's [monetary base] due at 23.50GMT is expected to post a double-dig...
Japan's [monetary base] due at 23.50GMT is expected to post a double-digit fall in Jan, marking a 10th consecutive decline. A decline in the current account balance will keep the monetary base on a contraction trend though the rate of decline in Jan is likely to have slowed to around -20% y/y vs Nov's record 22.3% y/y contraction (Dec was -20% y/y).

NY mk 20:51 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY has to stay below 157.45 in order to have another wave lower and perhaps make a new low. NFP is usually a USD event, so this is really an Asian/European time zone trade. By the time NY gets in, it will all be about the big USD and NFP, crosses will be sidelined.

LKWD JJ 20:38 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
$Y holding the 20ma after punching thru it earlier today.

USA BAY 20:34 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
NY MK,

What is the level you are looking at for eur/jpy short. thanks

Syd 20:31 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
BNP Paribas Sees Severe AUD/NOK Sell-Off
Rising interest rates in Norway, set against a downgraded view of Australian growth, point to a sharp decline in AUD/NOK, says BNP Paribas. Bank targets 4.60 from 4.84 area now. "The AUD has been used as a carry tool over recent years, while there has been little motivation to hold NOK," BNPP adds. "However with NOK rates rising, NOK will become increasingly recognized as a yielding currency."

Athens MK 20:24 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
==================================
Athens MK 13:29 GMT January 29, 2007
Good morning,

GBP/$: looking at the charts we see a potential scenario of cable bottoming out around 1.9515-30 with a first target of 1.9725

Intraday: If bias continues to be bearish then a first target of 1.9536 should be hit. A second target of 1.9482 if selling pressure increases.
==================================

Good evening everyone,

Just took a quick peek at the markets and saw our first target has been touched from the call of Jan.29....

Looking for a second target of 1.9850 especially if the news tomorrow is bearish for the dollar...... Otherwise we could have a period of consolidation but for those that like to trade in a swing cycle look for the next target 1.9850.....

GLGT

New York mk 20:24 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Canadian FM got the market to sell usdjpy and eurjpy there.. all too briefly as he back tracked on his comments. Bid is back in USD/JPY and it wants to test 120.80. There are offers waiting just above 121.00

Syd 20:14 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD opens lower after hitting fresh 2-month low of 0.6798 offshore, loses ground on crosses as long positions liquidated; 0.6818 vs 0.6876 at yesterday's NZ close after opening at 0.6804. "The Kiwi came under a lot of selling on the crosses, we've lost ground against the Aussie, the yen and the euro," says ANZ Bank senior dealer Murray Hindley; "looks like some of the longs have been taken out." Bias remains to the downside with support likely around 0.6760-70 area, with upside capped around 0.6840.

ldn pw 20:02 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
ny MK 19:58 GMT February 1, 2007
thanks ny MK - I am trying to escape out of a long - 120.90 area would do if we could just reach it later......

ny MK 19:58 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
If it stays below 120.80... it can come in lower into Asia... but my gut instinct tells me that it will be driven by EUR/JPY in the next 24 hours. If Asian real money accounts sell the cross, USD/JPY can ease back off to 35-45... if they don't, USD/JPY may test that 121 region again. My bias is to sell eurjpy rallies

ldn pw 19:53 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Does anybody think usd/jpy may visit 121 area later on today or has it topped out for today ? thanks

Vienna GD 19:14 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
New York Bank Trader 18:49 ... ok, then consider to also subscribe to the GVI board, there are more bank traders and professionals eventually. I think jay would offer you a trial subscription. But here is a bit more traffic i think.

New York mk 19:12 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Risk of another run up in EUR.. overnight 1.3000 given in options broker market and M.E. seem to be buyers of EUR/JPY into Asia. The market is still short EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

to dr unken katt 18:51 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
new york mk
also keep in mind if u wanna win long cablehyena
this pair has never been a looser on the long side in many years

New York Bank Trader 18:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
No, I am not new to FX. Been trading for banks for 15 years. I run a properietary trading desk in New York. An FX desk. And just looking for a 'different' outlet of people to talk to and get ideas from.

Vienna GD 18:46 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
New York mk 18:18 ... YES, many fx traders and discussions here, also several boards. You can also search the archives.
The most important thing if you are new to fx: start small (minis or you choose the possy size) because else you will loose your funds within a few days or maximum weeks.

USA BAY 18:33 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
OPPS SORRY WRONG ARTICLE

__________________________________

Semi-official fund bidding has countered global macro fund sales in [USD/JPY],...
Semi-official fund bidding has countered global macro fund sales in [USD/JPY], while Eur/Jpy has bounced after 156.50 barrier defense put a firm base on the pair. Note also Gbp/Jpy firming after the IDS pay survey (15.48GMT). Offers are expected into the 120.92 day's high/121.00 area in the pair with stops above, though Asian trading will again need watching for signs of more carry trade exitting, which will influence the crosses greatly. Note huge portfolio flows into Japan (15.34GMT), which may increasingly add to the tendency to exit carry trades and hold the Jpy firm.

USA BAY 18:33 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Cable Could See Big Rally

Thursday, 01 February 2007 11:59:36 GMT
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst


We had measured support at 1.9455/61 but price reversed prior to reaching our level yesterday (low at 1.9482). The decline from 1.9915 is just in 3 waves, which favors the upside. A break above 1.9698 bolsters the short term bullish bias. If 1.9482 was the bottom of a correction from 1.9915, then Cable may be in a 3rd wave higher right now. If this wave count is correct, then a strong Cable rally is imminent. Measured resistance is not until where the rally from 1.9622 would equal the 1.9482-1.9672 rally; this is at 1.9812. An extended rally probes the 161.8% extension at 1.9929. 1.9622 needs to hold if the most bullish scenario is to play out.

GVI john 18:30 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
from GVI...

Friday will see no major data from Japan. Europe will release December Eurozone PPI (see -0.1% mo/mo vs 0.0% in November). At 13:30 GMT (08:30 EST), January employment is seen +145,000 following a gain of +167,000 in December. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.5%. At 15:00 GMT (10:00 EST), the January final University of Michigan survey is 97.7 vs. a preliminary reading of 98.0. At 15:00 GMT (10:00 EST), December factory orders are seen gaining +1.8% vs +0.9%.

New York Bank Trader 18:25 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
There are stops above in USD/JPY starting as close as 85-90... we will have a look up at 121.00 shortly. But, whether or not we stay above that will be determined by Asia and the Japanese real money accounts.

Makassar Alimin 18:24 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy if regain 121 level and manage to stay above it will maintain the bullish stance again

New York Bank Trader 18:21 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Large CTA buying USDCAD through CITIBANK

New York mk 18:18 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Is this forum used by many people. My first time here.... want to get into an FX chat group.

SINGAPORE GFX 18:03 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Will definitely follow what you said. Will observe till the said time. Thanks a million again.

Hong Kong Ahe 17:54 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 17:43 GMT - If you intend to short NZDYEN at current level, IMO, better wait till 3:00 am HKT/Singapore time. Now it is in struggling. But AUDYEN is now in lagging of the move of NZDYEN. So you may consider to short AUDYEN with lesser risk. GL and GT.

CT Cris 17:45 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 14:48 GMT February 1, 2007
CT Cris 13:49 GMT February 1, 2007
**************************

Then you must be playing very small positions because that could be a recipe for disaster. I don't mean any disrespect. I'm just trying to learn.

========
this is the one million $ question as moscow mi said.

I have the formula which keep you always in profit.

SINGAPORE GFX 17:43 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Thanks. Will wait for NZD/USD to rise to 0.69 area to sell. As for NZD/JPY what is your opinion of holding a short position at the current level. Thanks a million

USA BAY 17:39 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Cable Could See Big Rally

Thursday, 01 February 2007 11:59:36 GMT
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst


We had measured support at 1.9455/61 but price reversed prior to reaching our level yesterday (low at 1.9482). The decline from 1.9915 is just in 3 waves, which favors the upside. A break above 1.9698 bolsters the short term bullish bias. If 1.9482 was the bottom of a correction from 1.9915, then Cable may be in a 3rd wave higher right now. If this wave count is correct, then a strong Cable rally is imminent. Measured resistance is not until where the rally from 1.9622 would equal the 1.9482-1.9672 rally; this is at 1.9812. An extended rally probes the 161.8% extension at 1.9929. 1.9622 needs to hold if the most bullish scenario is to play out.

USA BAY 17:38 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD Topped?

Thursday, 01 February 2007 15:18:18 GMT
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst


The rally this morning to 1.3052 may very well be the top of wave 4 in a 5 wave decline from 1.3367. The rally from 1.2865 retraced roughly 38.2% of wave 3 (1.3296 - 1.2865). Also, the a and c legs of the 3 wave correction from 1.2865 are nearly identical (179 and 176 pips). The next move then (as long as 1.3052 holds) is a wave 5 that declines below 1.2865. A measured objective is at 1.2744 (61.8% extension of 1.3367-1.2865 / 1.3052). Wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.2736...very close to 1.2744. The confluence of Elliott / Fibonacci measurements is a sign that this is the correct interpretation. Again...1.3052 needs to hold

Hong Kong Ahe 17:36 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Sorry.. should be ..If met, NZDUSD will be at its 200day MA 0.6523

Hong Kong Ahe 17:34 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 17:17 GMT - NZDYEN is now at 82.18 where NZDUSD is at 0.6811/16. The leading factor is determined by the NZDYEN (Yenophobies retreat before next week G7 meeting). NZDYEN next retreat lines are around 81.50 and 80.00. If met, NZDYEN will be at its 200day MA 0.6523. The top resistance now is 0.6910/20. Tomorrow in the afternoon session of Asian market, NZDUSD will go stronger again. But still in a sell mode.

SINGAPORE GFX 17:17 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

What will the intraday level for Nzd?usd and Nzd/Jpy for intraday tomorrow in your opinion. thanks

Toronto NDL 17:15 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Thoughts on USDGBP over the next quarter anyone?

Looking for Torontonians to trade/chat with pls email.

RIC fxq 16:44 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Perth mgv 16:42 GMT

indeed, indeed, rotfl

Perth mgv 16:42 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:36 GMT February 1, 2007
yes FXQ...there are lots of drinkers of bio methanol here today..lol

Hong Kong Ahe 16:42 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 10:20 GMT January 31, 2007
manchester 10:12 GMT - NZDYEN is still in unwinding mood. NZDUSD has broken the bottom of last dip. It tends to move to 100 day Moving average of 0.6768. GL and GT.
------
Please take a concern to protect and preserve your capital.

RIC fxq 16:36 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
speaking of "stupid" !

lugano fc 16:32 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
begginning shorts usdjpy .... no stop sell every 20 pips till 121.50 in case they are so stupid to push again till there....

LKWD JJ 16:29 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
ct cris how low do you see cable going today?

manchester 16:25 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
oil man, would appreciate your comments on NZD/USD. got a few long positions but its going the other way right now.

Gen dk 15:59 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Malcom Ruwi 15:56 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone comment on USD/JPY from the current scenario

Perth mgv 15:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 15:06 GMT February 1, 2007
In front of uridashi maturities, that is not such a smart idea..should stay away from drinking the bio methanol..lol

jkt-aye 15:41 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
i have magnetic price level base on hourly chart :
eurusd 1.2980,
usdjpy 121.10,
gbpusd 1.9590,
usdchf 1.2490.
...................happy hunting.

HK Kevin 15:10 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:54 GMT, my short AUD 7762, s/l at 7810 and t/p at 7510, also not a bad trade in terms of risk and reward.

UK Alex 15:10 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
SNB's Roth says interest rates can move higher

Cannes Oil man 15:06 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Increased my position in NZD before leaving.

Cannes Oil man 15:02 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Well leaving my positions open , and going out , should see my targets in the weeks ahead...E$ looks ready to tackle 1.31..And the "big shuffle" ahead into next week.

GL , back in a few hours.

Bahrain BAH1 15:00 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
US ISM manufacturing index 49.3 in January from 51.4 in December and against the expected 51.7. The prices paid index was 53.0 from 47.5 in December and a forecast 47.0.
US December pending home sales +4.9% from Nov's -0.3% and against an expected +0.9%.

san miniato ab 14:59 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
ISM 49,3

Cannes Oil man 14:54 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
From GVI , Kevin..Was good info cause it's now a free trade (not for me , had to close on month end , just rebought 48.


Sydney ge11ja 23:46 GMT January 30, 2007
There was a similar one of these by same player in late March last year at
0.7000. Defended heavily, then spent the next 6 weeks or so rallying 10-11%. Seems a low risk trade to me to buy here with a 0.7690 stop.

Cannes Oil man 23:30 GMT January 30, 2007
Ah it's supposily held by asian CB, with hedge fund trying to break .77, all gobled by the cb..

GVI Jay 23:29 GMT January 30, 2007
GVI Jay 14:52 GMT January 30, 2007
More from RTRS alert:

A trader with a US bank says a "huge" KO in AUD/USD being "brutally" defended at 0.77.

Cannes Oil man 23:27 GMT January 30, 2007
Anyone talk of the .77 barrier supposily held by asian CB?

Charlotte TH 14:48 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:49 GMT February 1, 2007
Normally I sell or buy b4 data according to my signal.
sell another depend on how strength the data, how strength
the movement...mostly i do it within each 30-40pips.
i dont use stop.

**************************

Then you must be playing very small positions because that could be a recipe for disaster. I don't mean any disrespect. I'm just trying to learn.

UK Alex 14:44 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Cheers, JP.

Bahrain BAH1 14:43 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
ISM with in 16m. GL all

HK Kevin 14:42 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:20 GMT, I am trading against you. If AUD holds 7720, I am wrong.

UK Alex 14:41 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Potash man? LOL!

Mtl JP 14:41 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 4:34 / a picture for you:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?=ADM&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Cannes Oil man 14:38 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Posted that last night on GVI..

Bio ethanol still needs POTASH!
Though frankly this second hand solution are long term investment, don't think China or India will abruptly announce a switch from oil to this kind of energy anytime soon.



Cannes Oil man 00:43 GMT February 1, 2007
Sydney ge11ja 22:01 GMT January 31, 2007

Semantics never been my forte , i'm afraid..
Personally I foresee top growth in the next 15 years , so much development ahead , that Stocks are probably going to double within the next 10 years(something i ve written back when dow was 8K..though my 13K target seems to close, 20K better now, but leaps don't last that long) , combined with hyper inflation due to commodity shortage..Again the broken record of People's Republic has already gobbled up 30% of the world's steel... 31% of the world's coal... 40% of the world's cement and so much more demand to feed its ravenous economy - for the next 15 to 20 years)..Combined with India , Africa..Fail to see how US$ can go UP with all above..As for oil , it will soon stop being a problem, potash and ethanol are a good replacement...Maybe i change my name to Potash man?Ah.

UK Alex 14:34 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Any comment on bio-ethanol?

Cannes Oil man 14:31 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Buy Potash and Ethanol , Alex..(Both found in great quantities in .....CANADA)..

UK Alex 14:30 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
An excerpt for you:

Despite an increase in production compared to the previous month, the secular decline of production has not yet come to a halt. Output is down compared to one year ago, despite increased investment. High costs are partly to blame, but increased activity should bring at least short-term stabilisation in output.

After falling briefly below the $50-mark for the first time in almost 20 months in mid-January, crude oil prices experienced something like a mini rally toward the end of the month. Colder winter weather in the US and an announcement by President Bush at the State of the Union Address that the American government will be doubling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 1.5 billion barrels by 2027 propelled prices past the $55 barrier. Traders were confident that if the government wants to buy crude oil, prices should go up. The risk of the move is that public reserves will simply displace private storage. After all, with the government ready to act as supplier of last resort, there is little incentive for the private sector to shoulder the costs of carrying more than the minimum in inventories. Commercial inventories are likely to become ever leaner.

We believe the latest rally will prove short-lived. The US government is purchasing merely 100,000 barrels per day, less than 0.5% of total US consumption. Instead, we expect crude oil to ease gradually to the mid $40s over the next five years, as emerging spare capacity will increase. Recent investment and drilling activity foreshadows additional supplies coming online over the next few months, while demand growth, albeit still robust, will return to a more sustainable pace.

UK Alex 14:27 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, have you seen the RBS Oil & Gas report? They make some interesting observations and expect crude to ease to mid $40s over the next five years.

Cannes Oil man 14:20 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
For the record will add to NZD on upside breaks (6930) , and ozi 7840.

Cannes Oil man 14:17 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Bias now Bullish of course as we hit the range low.
gl gt

ldn pw 14:17 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
manchester 14:02 GMT February 1, 2007
manchester - where are you long usd/jpy from and where have you put your stop ?...thnx

Cannes Oil man 14:16 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
There found it.

Cannes Oil man 18:35 GMT September 12, 2006
First 55 target is about to get hit from there , the real game will begin if we start going under..
I Still see 50/65 range after this..With a bearish bias.
gl gt

Cannes Oil man 14:12 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
$/CAD still great too..See a huge snap back in the month ahead as oil goes for new the range high (See september 50/65 range)..

I do believe oil will break the current "peak" and be above 80 in a few month(be very patient), AND this break should not occur because of highly speculative and leveraged funds going crazy.

Cali mmm 14:06 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
TKS Oilman

Cannes Oil man 14:06 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
There's 10 more days out here for "les soldes" , so NZD and AUD look like promotional offers out here.

ldn pw 14:05 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:59 GMT February 1, 2007
ldn pw 13:51 GMT February 1, 2007
I wasn't trading against your signal Cris - I was already in it and was hoping you may be able to give me some higher levels to get out of it....

Cannes Oil man 14:04 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
If the e$ manages to stay above 1.2980 , till friday close , good chances for the "big shuffle" into next week...

Don't imagine a complete turn around till next week (apart from the frenzied GBP) , there has to be a good consolidation followed by a break before people that matters buy the break out.

Cali mmm 14:03 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Ok 48. Any STerm TP target? TKS.

manchester 14:02 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
pw, I'm in the same position as you so would appreiciate some feedback.

US Treasury secretary, Hank Paulson, said yesterday that the US was watching the USD/JPY ‘very, very
closely’. He did also mention that the USD/JPY exchange
rate was reflecting fundamentals... but I think the
market is going to ignore this comment in the short term.

The fact is that the US is now raising concern over
the USD/JPY exchange rate. This is a significant
development. There has been no comment to counter this
from Japanese officials overnight which is also a
matter for concern for bulls

Cannes Oil man 14:01 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:55 GMT February 1, 2007
Jumped on AUD at 48.

CT Cris 13:59 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 13:51 GMT February 1, 2007
if you trade against my signal..then why you asking me ?

Cali mmm 13:59 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Oilman. Good morning / afternoon. What do you consider a good entry level for AUD/USD today? what would be your TP target? TKS.

ldn pw 13:51 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 13:49 GMT February 1, 2007
Kevin -I am long usd/jpy - do you think it may bounce at all and if so from which level ?....thnx

HK Kevin 13:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
manchester 13:44 GMT, cvovered my short USD/JPY position too earlier yesterday before the FOMC meeting. Don't follow today. I think long position should place stop at 119.70.
Currently hold short EUR/JPY from 157.60 and tiny short AUD from 7762.

CT Cris 13:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 13:31 GMT February 1, 2007
CT Cris 13:27 GMT February 1, 2007
Thoughts on gbpusd again please.

sell and sell another if rise after data
****************************

What is the stop on a strategy like that?
===
Normally I sell or buy b4 data according to my signal.
sell another depend on how strength the data, how strength
the movement...mostly i do it within each 30-40pips.
i dont use stop.

manchester 13:44 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
kevin, any view on $/yen?

Dallas GEP 13:43 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Longed usd/chf, target 1.2480

HK Kevin 13:42 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
If EUR/JPY breaks below 156.65, the snow ball will roll again.

manchester 13:41 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
whats going on with $/yen. where is this yen strength coming from?

Philadelphia Caba 13:32 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
US ECON: Income Rises 0.5%, Spending Up 0.7%, Core PCE 2.2%Y/Y

Bahrain BAH1 13:31 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
US December personal income +0.5% from Nov's +0.3% and against forecasts for +0.5%. Personal spending was +0.7% from Nov's +0.5% and compared to the expected +0.7%.

US Dec PCE deflator 2.3% yoy from Nov's +1.9% and against the expected +2.2%. The core PCE rate was +0.1% mom and 2.2% yoy from Nov's 0.0% mom and +2.2% yoy and a forecast +0.2% mom and +2.3% yoy.

Charlotte TH 13:31 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:27 GMT February 1, 2007
Thoughts on gbpusd again please.

sell and sell another if rise after data
****************************

What is the stop on a strategy like that?

CT Cris 13:27 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 13:12 GMT February 1, 2007
CT Cris 11:53 GMT February 1, 2007
=========
gbp/usd exit now as downtrend is coming

*******************************
Thoughts on gbpusd again please.

sell and sell another if rise after data

Syd 13:21 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
PARIS (AP)--A bomb alert prompted the pilot of a Paris-Rome flight to divert to Lyon in southeast France on Thursday, and police searched the plane after passengers and crew disembarked, French authorities said.

Authorities in Lyon said the bomb alert was received in Rome. It wasn't immediately clear whether the search by the bomb squad had found anything.

Philadelphia Caba 13:16 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
..In the macro focus, dealers are mulling the consequences of the China Securities Journal story about big changes in forex policy this year in China. Accelerated appreciation in the Yuan should help trim the current account surplus and take
some pressure of the USD versus alternative reserve assets like EUR and GBP. However the market will focus on the expected formation of a separate arm to manage forex reserves and assume that will mean greater diversification from the USD. This does not necessarily follow, but it does imply China will move beyond Treasuries and other high-grade securities and perhaps invest in less liquid markets like real estate and private equity... ifr.

Charlotte TH 13:12 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:53 GMT February 1, 2007
=========
gbp/usd exit now as downtrend is coming

*******************************
Thoughts on gbpusd again please.

Global-View 12:50 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Reg, that has been on our list for a long time and we are working on it. Also, in the future, please use a recognizable location when posting an update. TIA

rag bar 12:20 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
it will be helpful if traders will be able to add some charts here together with theirs messages/view....especial pro traders for new traders...

CT Cris 12:03 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 11:55 GMT February 1, 2007
CT Cris 11:53 GMT February 1, 2007
Hi Cris - can you help with expected usd/jpy levels - thank.
=====
usd.jpy heading twd 120.10 then will rise again.

ldn pw 11:55 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:53 GMT February 1, 2007
Hi Cris - can you help with expected usd/jpy levels - thanks.

CT Cris 11:53 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:43 GMT February 1, 2007
ldn pw 22:23 GMT January 31, 2007
CT Cris 21:05 GMT January 31, 2007
Cris could I have your views on gbp/usd and usd/jpy for next asian and Euro sessions...thanks

==============
gbp.usd in sideways between 19660 and 19620.
buy if breaks 19660 sell if breaks 19620.
mostly the break will be up.

=========
exit now as downtrend is coming

Atlanta South 11:40 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter//

I have followed your post for quite some time now & find them
to be easy reading, to the point & for the most part spot on.
Your style of wording makes it easy for the new traders to follow what you are doing. You method is similar to what I
do in that you view the picture across a broad range of times. My method is focused on price using few indicators.

It is good to read your post & compare to what I am seeing
& doing. Tks for the time you devote to
explaining what you are doing & seeing. Even after 20+ yrs
I am still learning something new each day in the trading
arena. Tks & gt.

manchester 11:20 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
oil man, have you got long positions NZD/USD. its disappointing that this long term move up has been stalling lately

Cannes Oil man 11:11 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   

Syd 09:49 GMT February 1, 2007


In a few days, the big shuffle they all will be screaming to buy near 1.32 , 1.98£, 70 NZ etc..

Makassar Alimin 10:58 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
intraday trade: limit buy usdjpy 120.38, stop 120.13 for 120.80

Auckland trotter 10:46 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Now buy 1.3005, a level on the 5min 5day chart for the EUR/USD as see it as a possible bottom of the price around this level for now.

London JBS 10:45 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN MOF'S WATANABE SAYS DOES NOT SEE PANIC UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADES

London JBS 10:45 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN MOF'S WATANABE SAYS SOME G7 MEMBERS MAY MENTION YEN AS PART OF DISCUSSIONS AT MEETING

london av 10:44 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
$/yen can anyone suggest next support level?

London JBS 10:44 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
JAPAN MOF'S WATANABE SAYS YEN UNLIKELY TO BE MAJOR TOPIC AT G7 MEETING

Auckland trotter 10:09 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Took profit at 1.3012 on my sell of the EUR/USD as had over bought indicators and the price didn’t hit the daily pivot of 1.2997. Now will look closely at the RSI(5) on the 5min 12hr chart until I see a direction for the price.

Can’t ignore the aspect from the longer charts that the EUR/USD has some up pressure.

I don’t look to milk the market, just take pips with leverage where I see them. The more I understand the more I can make. And as a short term trader this is up an down during a session.

There are gaps in my understanding which is why I post on the forum for criticism and comment.

I appreciate those that reply to enhance my understanding.

Gen dk 10:03 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 09:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Cable's relatively vigorous recovery off the 1.9485 trendline Wednesday has tempered the rates negative outlook, notes Royal bank of Scotland. Now at 1.9645, a break above 1.97 should see an extension toward 1.9750-1.9815. However, the bank says the interweek bias is down, with a test of the January 2007 lows of 1.9265 looked for, so selling strength to 1.9750 with a stop above 1.9825 is the favored play

Auckland trotter 09:40 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Now let’s see what happens with the EUR/USD at I5 on the daily pivots at 1.3016. The 5min 12hr chart needs to break this for more down.

I like to understand the price movement. An explanation as to how the price is ‘behaving given certain indicators’, means that I can trade with an understanding as to why I make a profit or a loss. There are times I do not have an explanation of why the market stalls or reacts the way it does - these are learning gaps. On the other hand, these times are where I make my biggest losses and should take it as not trading, or try out new methods on a demo account.

Bahrain BAH1 09:38 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
UK January CIPS manufacturing index 52.8 from a revised 52.0 in Dec (prelim 51.9) and against forecasts for 51.7.

Bahrain BAH1 09:38 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
manufacturing index 52.8 from a revised 52.0 in Dec (prelim 51.9) and against forecasts for 51.7.

Gen dk 09:27 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 09:08 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
The larger than expected decline in the manufacturing PMI for the euro zone comes on top of other evidence that the economy is slowing as 2007 begins, but not enough to deter the ECB from hiking in March. The PMI fell to 55.5 from 56.5 in December, a larger drop than the forecast decline to 56.3. The decline was broad-based, affecting all of the big four economies.

Bahrain BAH1 09:08 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Eurozone January manuf. PMI at 55.5 after 56.5. Lower than expected.

Syd 08:55 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
German Jan Mfg PMI 58.5 Vs Dec 59.4 - Sources

Auckland trotter 08:55 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
If the EUR/USD breaks around 1.3026 from the 1hr 30 day chart and the 5min 12hr chart, I will add more sell. For now this appears an interesting level as to the direction of the market.

Will see what the opening of the UK market has in store. I may be just bouncing RSI(5) on the 5min chart if the market stays as it is.

Syd 08:55 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
French Jan Mfg PMI 52.4 Vs Dec 54.2 - Sources

Jan Mfg PMI 58.5 Vs Dec 59.4 - Sources

Bahrain BAH1 08:55 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
German JAN PMI manuf. 58.5 from Dec 59.4 against forecasts for 59

Bahrain BAH1 08:53 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
French PMI manufacturing in January 52.4, the lowest since last February and from 54.2 in Dec. The market was looking for 54.

Syd 08:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Forex Focus: Euro May Find Some Support Drifting Away
Nicholas Hastings
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES COLUMN
The euro may find some of its support drifting away as analysts scale back their expectations of future European Central Bank rate hikes.

Instead of looking for two more rate increases, they now expect only one, to take rates up to 3.75% from 3.50%.

"By June, we believe conditions abroad will look more downbeat, thus allowing the ECB to hold rates at 3.75%," said Dominic Bryant, a European economist with BNP Paribas in London.

However, other market sources remain confident the ECB will stand firm and will still push rates up to 4%, despite recent data suggesting euro-zone inflation isn't as high as anticipated.

"In Frankfurt, they focus on medium-term perspectives and we remain confident that rates will reach 4% next June," said Aurelio Maccario, a European economist with UniCredit Markets and Investment Banking in Milan.

This new uncertainty over how far and how fast the ECB will raise interest rates has grown after a rash of mixed euro-zone data this week suggesting while inflation has come in much slower than expected, despite the sharp increase in German value-added tax at the start of the year, the labor market remains strong.

At the same time, however, the latest euro-zone sentiment index was hardly reassuring for the hawks.

Instead of remaining unchanged at 109.8 as expected, the main index fell to 109.2 in January from December.

"The third straight decline in economic sentiment might serve as a reminder that the ECB's tightening cycle is in its final stage," said Martin van Vliet, a European economist with ING Financial Markets in Amsterdam.

But it was evidence that pan euro-zone inflation was much slower than the market had expected which really gave the doves some hope.

For a start, the rise in German VAT, which had been expected to prompt a surge in spending at the end of last year failed to have the anticipated impact.

German retail sales figures showed that while spending in December did actually rise, spending during the fourth quarter as a whole declined 0.2%.

And, noted Jennifer Upham, a European economist with Capital Economics in London, "if spending didn't surge in the fourth quarter, it is unlikely to have fallen as sharply in the first quarter of this year as we had thought."

All this helped to keep not only German inflation but also euro-zone inflation in check, with the flash estimate for the consumer price index for the region showing a 1.9% rise on the year this month. This was unchanged from December and failed to show a 2.1% rise as forecast.

So instead of being pushed higher by the VAT increase as expected, price pressures appear to have been subdued by the recent decline in crude oil prices.

"The benign nature of the current CPI figures does raise some question marks over our forecast for an additional second-quarter hike. As such, it is a dovish signal and should be mildly euro negative," said Stuart Bennett, senior European economist with Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank in London.

Barring a further sharp rally in crude prices, some reckon euro-zone inflation will remain under 2% for the rest of the year.

But it is the strong labor market - and fears that this will translate into high wage demands - that is expected to keep the ECB on its toes.

The unemployment rate in the euro zone fell back in January to 7.5%, a new low for the current economic cycle, instead of remaining unchanged at 7.6% as expected. This is a far cry from the 8.8% unemployment rate peak back in April 2005.

"The economic landscape of strong growth, abundant liquidity and risks of wage-induced second round effects will underpin the current ECB's hawkish stance, even in front of lower current inflation," said UniCredit's Maccario.

Daniel Katzive, a senior currency strategist with UBS in Stamford, Connecticut, says the data haven't shifted underlying rate hike expectations in the money markets and this should ensure the euro continues to perform well.

"We continue to expect the euro to hold up well versus the key crosses," Katzive said.

Bahrain BAH1 08:45 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Italian January PMI manufacturing index 53.5......the lowest since Jan last year, from Dec's 55.0 and against forecasts for 54.8.

Bahrain BAH1 08:35 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Swiss January PMI at 62.0, well below consensus of 64.7.

Auckland trotter 08:10 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
For the EUR/USD this session I have:

Around 1.3024 is a level being tested on the 1wk 3yr chart - with a general trend of up on this chart.

RSI (14) and (5) coming down from over bought on 1hr 5day chart.

On the 4hr 20 day chart: RSI (5) is coming down from over bought, and the price is above SMA(10).

The price on the 5min 12hr chart has been hittin a resistance level around 1.3032, which is a 50% fib on the 4hr 20 day chart.

Expected fundamentals appear in favour of the USD.

Therefore I have down pressure to:

Weekly pivot 1.2944
S1 on daily pivots 1.2957

Hong Kong Ahe 08:10 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Biite ein Bit . LOL. ... The funniest in today forex market. ;)

Athens MK 08:09 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Good morning,

GBP/$: Today bias is to target 1.9725 as first limit. The technical level for traders is 1.9740-50 area. If that breaks then look for 1.9785 as the next area of profit taking.

To help increase momentum to the upside 1.966+ area needs to be taken out....

If the currency is to drop before taking off two area's are noted for new open intraday positions:
1.96
1.9560

As always this swing cycle 1.9385 is the danger zone for a new trend to develop.....

When trading swing cycles look to play the daily ranges to minimize potential losses.....

PAR 08:00 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Fukui talking down yen and saying Japan dont want to discuss yen weakness at G7. So, Steinbruck will back down and just drink a german beer . Biite ein Bit . LOL.

Bahrain BAH1 07:59 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:43 GMT February 1, 2007
gbp.usd in sideways between 19660 and 19620.
buy if breaks 19660 sell if breaks 19620.
mostly the brak will be up.

Nice call. GL

Auckland peat 07:41 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Property is the same here in New Zealand and especially Auckland. An article today in the Herald :
Faith in housing sector at boom levels.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10421843

Syd 07:40 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 07:17 GMT hi, I lived throught the collapse of the late 1989 housing market but the stakes are even higher now due to the cost of the property even though the interest rates are not as high , wages have not increased to keep up with the debt and on top of all this the younger generation live on credit cards and spend like there is no tomorrow

U.K. J.B. 07:37 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
FLorida Crom 07:29 GMT February 1, 2007

With correct Money Management anything is achievable

FLorida Crom 07:29 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 07:17 GMT February 1, 2007

How can you have cash in your pockets while trying to make the ends meet from month to month?

U.K. J.B. 07:17 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:50 GMT February 1, 2007

Unfortunately this article is spot on. One area that was not mentioned was the property market. I am afraid to say we have serious problems here too, The bubble will burst sooner rather than later. It is only London holding the market up. My advice to any one in the U.K. is to hold cash and get yourself short of properties.

Syd 06:37 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Asia Forex:Dlr, Euro Make Volatile Moves Vs Yen On G7 Views
By Takashi Mochizuki
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

The dollar and the euro made volatile moves against the yen in Asia Thursday on a flurry of news related to the upcoming meeting of financial heads of the Group of Seven countries.
The U.S. unit and the euro initially fell to Y120.49 and Y157.03 on EBS early in the Asian session following overnight remarks by U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson expressing measured caution about the yen's recent weakness against the greenback. But the two currencies later reversed course and recovered all of their early losses after Dow Jones, quoting an unnamed Japanese government official, reported that big complaints about the yen's weakness are unlikely to be raised during the formal sessions of next week's G7 meeting. After the report, Japanese and U.S. short-term players bought the dollar and the single currency for the yen, senior Tokyo-based traders at European banks said.
"It looks like some players, who had sold the dollar due to Paulson's comment yesterday, bought back the dollar," said Osao Iizuka, a senior dealer at Sumitomo Trust and Banking Co. The Japanese government official also told Dow Jones that "the G7 members right now are not discussing a particular form of currency policy coordination" as part of preparation for the meeting. Still, the official noted that complaints about the yen weakness may be raised on the sidelines of the G7 meeting from some European countries.
Players said the overall dollar-bullish sentiment hasn't changed versus the yen due to wide interest rate differentials, and the dollar may touch Y122 again next week if U.S. January non-farm payrolls data due Friday turn out to be strong. Yet, the greenback's advance against the Japanese unit will be a "crawl" until the G7 meeting as players are forced to stay on the alert to further possible yen-weakness warning comments from Europe and U.S. officials.

Syd 06:31 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
TALK: USD/JPY Falls As Europe Players Unwind Longs
USD/JPY falls as Europe players unwind long positions, more alert to JPY weakness ahead of G7 meeting next week after Paulson's comments overnight, says senior customer dealer at major Japan bank; says stop-loss sell orders lie around 120.30 and if triggered, pair could head for next support at 119.80. USD/JPY last at 120.54 on EBS. EUR/JPY dropping in tandem, with support tipped at 156.50, last at 157.04 on EBS.

Syd 05:50 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
'Live for today' Britons plunging into debt
Britain's ‘live for today’ attitude toward debt is plunging an ever-growing number of families into financial ruin, the City’s watchdog warned yesterday. The Financial Services Authority (FSA) issued a stark warning that borrowers have become profoundly complacent about the size of the debt they are carrying. As a result, significant numbers are ill prepared for even a modest economic downturn. A million adults are now regularly falling behind with payments on bills and credit cards, the FSA calculated. A further two million citizens are "constantly struggling" to make ends meet.' The FSA said the Bank of England’s decision to hike interest rates three times over the past six months, combined with record rises in utility bills and taxes, could leave even more families teetering on the brink
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=432900&in_page_id=1770

CT Cris 05:43 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
ldn pw 22:23 GMT January 31, 2007
CT Cris 21:05 GMT January 31, 2007
Cris could I have your views on gbp/usd and usd/jpy for next asian and Euro sessions...thanks

==============
gbp.usd in sideways between 19660 and 19620.
buy if breaks 19660 sell if breaks 19620.
mostly the brak will be up.

Syd 05:13 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Australian interest rates are expected to be left on hold Tuesday when the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy-making board meets for the first time in 2007.

A survey of 21 economists by Dow Jones Newswires shows none expect the RBA to adjust rates next week.

The board, which sets monetary policy independently of the government, meets on the first Tuesday of every month (except in January) and informs financial markets of its decision at 2230 GMT the next day. Economists said the clincher for a rates-on-hold verdict next week was news in late January of a 0.1% fall in inflation in the fourth quarter from the third quarter.

The fall was the first quarterly retreat in the consumer price index in almost 8 years. Crucially for the RBA, core inflation also moderated in the fourth quarter.

The RBA targets a 2% to 3% inflation rate over the course of the economic cycle. The CPI fell to 3.3% in the fourth quarter from 3.9% in the prior quarter.

"It would be pretty safe to say that the Governor has already made up his mind about the fate of interest rates," said Craig James, chief equities economist at Commonwealth Securities.

"Official interest rates are going nowhere in a hurry," he added.

Some economists speculate that the next move in rates will be down, but they add it will unlikely be a consideration until 2008 or the second half of 2007 at the earliest.

Sydney ge11ja 04:17 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
sydney jg 04:07 GMT February 1, 2007

You could set a stop now below the days low if you wanted to reduce your risk

Mumbai NS 04:14 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud day waiting for ur post on euro and cbl ranges please ty

sydney jg 04:07 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 03:49 GMT February 1, 2007

Sydney ge11ja 03:05 GMT February 1, 2007

Thanks to both of you for giving your valued opinions - I am hoping this current bounce will see me out....thanks again.

Auckland peat 03:52 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
This trade is not meant to re-enter the triangle as it is doing.
Asian session signals are more likely to fail imo.OUT.

dc CB 03:49 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
sydney jg 03:29 GMT February 1, 2007

well if you look at the daily, it's bounced off the 21dma, what five time so far this year, but today it'safter it again and it may be determined to stay below this time...the sixth attempt...hasn't done that yet on a daily basis though, but the day isn't over yet.

sydney jg 03:29 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ge11ja 03:05 GMT February 1, 2007
sydney jg 03:00 GMT February 1, 2007
yes sorry that was a typo - I can afford to go to 120.20 but would like to know what the chances of a bounce from here are ? thanks for help.

dc CB 03:14 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY

COT

Also I'm looking at a chart that goes back to 2003 and this much enthusiasm for a side is not to be seen.

Sydney ge11ja 03:05 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
sydney jg 03:00 GMT February 1, 2007

IMHO the only real support is 120.20 which held very well the other day. If you cant afford that far then cut the position size to what you can afford

GL n GT

Syd 03:05 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD likely to "consolidate at lower levels" after easing back following post-FOMC jump, says Tricom associate director Graham Parlane; expects 0.6840-0.6890 range overnight. Last at 0.6871 vs 0.6861 local open. Says despite market reading Fed statement as dovish it's still in tightening bias, meaning some USD strength may return; personal consumption numbers tonight could provide some clues. Adds there's been some NZD/JPY selling, unwinding of carry trades, so while NZD unlikely to pull back sharply it "does look under some pressure."

sydney jg 03:00 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ge11ja 02:55 GMT February 1, 2007
sydney jg 02:51 GMT February 1, 2007

I could do 120.30 but not much more below - am looking for a bounce to get out of this trade. What do you think my chances are for a bounce outta here? Or conversely would 120.20 area produce a bounce. Thanks for help....

USA BAY 02:59 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
AUCKLAND PEAT<

Thanks. Dont worry not more than 80cents. Thanks again

Auckland peat 02:57 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay, yes thats what I mean... s/l 120.78

tho, plz trade at your own risk and apply prudent money management techniques... (shouldnt really need to be said in this forum)

Sydney ge11ja 02:55 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
sydney jg 02:51 GMT February 1, 2007

If you can afford it the best level to stop for a long USD/YEN position would be below 120.20

sydney jg 02:51 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Could somebody help me as to where the usd/jpy might stop - I am currently long and need a stop area for if it drops further. Thanks

USA BAY 02:36 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
AUCKLAND PEAT,

You mean sell now tp 120/?? Thanks

Staten Island AJC 02:35 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY: US momentum-types and models sold the cross again this morning as the market continues to worry about yen weakness featuring at the upcomingG7 meeting (a Jiji Press report citing 'local experts' provides the latest impetus) and EURJPY came off one-way from 157.40 to 157.19.

Auckland peat 02:31 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY breaking thru the bottom of its descending triangle.... @ 120.65 , maybe 40-60 pips here

USA BAY 01:12 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
[EUR/YEN] fell through the aforementioned neckline around 157.45-40 on stop sa...
[EUR/YEN] fell through the aforementioned neckline around 157.45-40 on stop sales ahead of Ldn open y/day, and mostly filled the objective around 156.80, also the Mon launching pad area, then rebounded to 157.86, mostly matching our high at 157.89, along with weak US Chicago PMI led [EUR/DLR] buying and mth-end [EUR/STG] strength, before the cross succumbed to Paulson led sales to 156.88. This point h/ever was above the earlier low, and the cross returned to 157.46/45 on the 157.14/13 base in NY PM session. The actions are messy, and the y/day's high/low would be the parameters to watch for the moment. 157.47 is paid this mng, and 157.45-50 actions above 157.05-00 would be watched.

usa bay 01:11 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Jiji Press report cites views from local experts that [G7] finance ministers ...
Jiji Press report cites views from local experts that [G7] finance ministers and central bankers are likely to discuss [YEN's] weakness at the upcoming meeting in Essen on Feb9/10. Ex-BOJ Exec Dir Eiji Hirano said it is natural for G7 to discuss the YEN though their talks would not be limited entirely to the Japanese currency. The yen's weakness is a "rational phenomenon" stemming from the wide interest rate gap btwn Japan and other major nations and European countries are increasingly becoming concerned and frustrated with EURO's appreciation. Separately, former Vice Finmin Makoto Utsumi also expects yen's weakness to be one of the topics of discussion at the G7 meeting though it would be difficult for the finmins to reach an agreement.

ABHA FXS 00:39 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY..TARGET
1/121.54
2/121.81

USDCHF..TARGET
1/1.2513
2/1.2537

EURUSD..TARGET
1/1.2937
2/1.2909
3/1.2867

Amsterdam Miss M.G 00:30 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
Hello,

I've opened a CFD share standard demo account.
In two nights I've made 50.000 USD profit with 2 companies.
With Bristol Meyers sell from 27,90 to 24,13 with 6 lots and with Dell Computers 28 lots because it was bouncing up and down from 24,22 to 25,36.
I've checked the CGI-charts and they give the same results.
Then I checked it on other demo accounts and I saw that Bristol Meyers did not came under the 27,00 on 30 and 31 january.
Dell Computers stayed around 24,22 and was not bouncing there at all.
Does anybody know why the demo account of CGI has such different results?

Thanks!

ABHA FXS 00:29 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY..TARGET
1/238.56
2/239.19
3/239.97

Philadelphia Caba 00:18 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
still holding aussie long.., just put small eur/jpy sell order at 158.00 with stop above month high..

Auckland peat 00:17 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY ≠ risk averse
but good luck with it.

USA BAY 00:08 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
AUCKLAND PEAT,

I am a small trader and ver risk averse. What I did was I bought just before close 236.99. It went to 237.35, i hedged it so giving me a positive difference. Now I will see and determine the trend. I have been doing this experiment for one week, seems ok. My pip size not more than 80 cents. Thanks a lot for the advice. Appreciate it.

Auckland peat 00:01 GMT February 1, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay
listen to what Caba said. remember yesterday how Kaprikorn blew his a/c on GBY/JPY. It isnt called Ninja beast for nothing.
Its patterns are worth observing tho, I do think that it is a useful indicator for the other yen crosses on occasion.

Caba.
I have no special info but cant see RBA rising rates, NSW state is almost in a recession!
But (I know its a way off) I think RBNZ might have to in March. I wont play the AUD/NZD tho coz it always eats me.