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Forex Forum Archive for 02/02/2007

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albertson 22:24 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys, any opinion on Sunday open of eur/usd HIGHER

Gen dk 20:54 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 20:51 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cannes Oil man 20:09 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Freeze will happen on demo accounts..

Anyways, frankly the guy posts what he thinks are good signals , they sometimes work , they sometimes don't...Only problem , and major problem i see with the way he works is, he NEVER include a risk stop (whether a fixed $ amount or normal stop)...
Going short long on data before and after without stops is a killer , that it worked today doesn't mean it will work tomorrow, on a demo account you can "afford" to be stop free, unlimited risk...
-However in real life , risk is the name of the game , the entry isn't much important, the importance to any trade is your allowed risk..
Every trade = how much are you ready to loose.

AZUSA 4X-ed 20:00 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:43 GMT February 2, 2007
======
“I trade according my signal...”
Really? Your signal as posted: “gbp.usd...wait to decline few pips after data ,then buy take profit 40-50 pips.”

“I bought b4 data at 19687 and exited at 19734.taking the traget of 40-50 pips.”
1. If such signal told you to wait for decline, why buy ahead of data? Why waste good pipitos?
2. If you would’ve bought after the data, what would’ve been your chances of getting 40-50 pips?

CT Cris 11:52 GMT February 2, 2007
NFP will surprise you...no big reaction will follow the data just
few pips to down then rise up slowly.

1. What’s your definition of “no big reaction will follow”?
2. What’s your definition of “rise up slowly”?

If you are trying to peddle a signal service, consider hiring a creative Nigerian pen pal. If your intentions were genuine, then why so defensive? Why not admitting that you made a mistake? And lastly, if your signals are so accurate, why not take the money you supposedly have generated and buy a system/service that will avoid: “freeze on my platform to prevent me exit and secure the profit.”

Don’t flatter yourself into thinking that you are worth anyone’s time on rebuttals. The warnings you’ve been given thus far were not addressed to you, but for the benefit of all those noobs that got slaughtered and who are likely to be chasing salvation from crooks like you.

NY RP 19:41 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
thanks

Budapest Z 19:40 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Olsen data

NY RP 19:28 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have any resources for tick data for the FX majors?
TIA.

NY RP 19:22 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 17:24 GMT February 2, 2007
Thanks, will check it out.

Cannes Oil man 19:01 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Can easily see the NZD was this week 71% correlated to the JPY (normally on 6 month basis only 20%) , meaning , NZDJPY unwinding ...

Max Correlation i have on this is 82% ...let's see.

Cannes Oil man 18:57 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Just look NZD vs gold this week...bang what a change.

Cannes Oil man 18:55 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
One week daily correlations (it changes a lot from 6m):

Ccy EUR JPY GBP AUD NZD XAU XAG CAD XPT XPD
EUR 1 0.594 0.723 0.325 0.584 0.388 0.486 0.481 0.252 0.607
JPY 0.594 1 0.297 -0.199 0.771 -0.009 0.529 -0.102 -0.276 0.016
GBP 0.723 0.297 1 0.793 0.636 0.577 0.599 0.856 0.712 0.936
AUD 0.325 -0.199 0.793 1 0.106 0.738 0.370 0.761 0.990 0.936
NZD 0.584 0.771 0.636 0.106 1 0.008 0.461 0.352 -0.006 0.330
XAU 0.388 -0.009 0.577 0.738 0.008 1 0.399 0.379 0.713 0.684
XAG 0.486 0.529 0.599 0.370 0.461 0.399 1 0.503 0.290 0.504
CAD 0.481 -0.102 0.856 0.761 0.352 0.379 0.503 1 0.698 0.880
XPT 0.252 -0.276 0.712 0.990 -0.006 0.713 0.290 0.698 1 0.893
XPD 0.607 0.016 0.936 0.936 0.330 0.684 0.504 0.880 0.893 1

Cannes Oil man 18:52 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
6 month daily correlations:

Ccy EUR JPY GBP AUD NZD XAU XAG CAD XPT XPD
EUR 1 0.678 0.859 0.579 0.384 0.475 0.393 0.428 0.384 0.368
JPY 0.678 1 0.664 0.479 0.275 0.380 0.250 0.393 0.303 0.258
GBP 0.859 0.664 1 0.574 0.389 0.484 0.402 0.400 0.388 0.396
AUD 0.579 0.479 0.574 1 0.691 0.510 0.465 0.472 0.384 0.387
NZD 0.384 0.275 0.389 0.691 1 0.336 0.416 0.349 0.220 0.253
XAU 0.475 0.380 0.484 0.510 0.336 1 0.831 0.307 0.756 0.761
XAG 0.393 0.250 0.402 0.465 0.416 0.831 1 0.341 0.660 0.720
CAD 0.428 0.393 0.400 0.472 0.349 0.307 0.341 1 0.221 0.239
XPT 0.384 0.303 0.388 0.384 0.220 0.756 0.660 0.221 1 0.808
XPD 0.368 0.258 0.396 0.387 0.253 0.761 0.720 0.239 0.808 1

NY Bank Prop Trader 18:49 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold vs Currency correlations

DXY (USD index) vs XAU = .366
EUR vs XAU = .339
JPY vs XAU = .217
CHF vs XAU = .354
AUD vs XAU = .419
CAD vs XAU = .409

These are daily correlation values

Van jv 18:44 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
london pc 18:33 GMT February 2, 2007
how close is the link between dollar / gold?


About -57

Caribbean! Rafe... 18:36 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
euro shorts can be partially exited at 12927-18,

wait till next week to short from higher levels.

gl,gt

london pc 18:33 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
how close is the link between dollar / gold?

NY Bank Prop Trader 18:24 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
No strong view on gold... I still like to buy dips there. But I think that gold can come back towards 620 first.

Van jv 18:23 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Re NY bank trader 16:20 /
"""to appease Europeans in front of the G-7. Out now on Bloomberg news.""
I would expect 154 at this time as no real unwinding expected---and rally later on high rate CCY /NZ AU GBP...

Hong Kong Ahe 18:12 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 18:11 GMT February 2, 2007, u r welcome. ;)

SINGAPORE GFX 18:11 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Thank you for that post. Gives me a better picture on next week's trading. I will stay away from the beast. Have a great weekend and have some delicious Dim Sum.

Vienna GD 18:07 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NY Bank Prop Trader 17:58 ... what do you expect from gold in the mediumterm (next 2-3 months)?

Hong Kong Ahe 18:04 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 17:45 GMT February 2, 2007
Per my last post to you .. Carry Trade NZDYEN (not over 82.50) and AUDYEN (not over 94) will go on unwinding. Watch time frame now till 1:00 am HKT/Singapore time. GL and GT. ....

During this time frame, NZDYEN and AUDYEN touched both 82.5 and 94 and retreated. Now these levels are their key resistance for those previous speculators on carry trade. Next week, especially Monday, Yen will gain more strength. The Yenophobies need to flat out to protect their on-hand profits per the theory of "if not too late than never".

For the time being, hard to tell if the momentum of price movement will hit 0.63 for NZDUSD but today 0.6820 has formed a hard line of resistance. It is more favorable for the next week to go back to 200 MA of 0.6523 as yenophobies squared out their profit from the last few months rise-trend. For long term, Yen, RenMinBi will be stronger and appreciated, excluded USDYEN as it is highly manipulated and violated many rules.

For GBPJPY, it is a wild animal. Unless you calculated the amount ready for + and -, dont jump on the wagon even you see good chances. GL and GT. Hope it help you.

Gen dk 18:01 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY Bank Prop Trader 17:58 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Historically, the USD falls in line with FED action, not other CB's. I think the end of the FED hiking cycle, and the first cut will mark the beginning of a multi year USD decline in YEN targeting 95.00

FW CS 17:53 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NY Bank Prop Trader 17:52 GMT February 2, 2007
Or if Japan raises which is not also out of the question

NY Bank Prop Trader 17:52 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Remember that in 1998 when the YEN carry unwound, it was preceded by 3 rate cuts by the FED that year. The real 'unwind' doesn't begin until the FED begins cutting rates.

SINGAPORE GFX 17:45 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Did not trade since yesterday due to flu. Just read your post. So aud/jpy and nzd/jpy is still a short below the levels you mentioned? As for nzd/usd is there possibility for the pair to fall to 0.63 area b4 going to 0.74 long term target.

As for the gbp/jpy 260 looks like the next target, could you also share your views please. You gave some excellent advice to Sofia Kap and it is very useful to me as well. Thank you so much

Sofia mik 17:45 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
stop hunting in gbp/jpy & chf/jpy is not over

FW CS 17:41 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex
I agree about the carry trade and am short $/Yen myself. Would be nice to see a 1998 style Yen liquidation but most probably will not be that severe when it ends

Cali mmm 17:24 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
RP, I´ve heard of "Trade news Pro". Haven´t try it.

Global-View Research 17:22 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
FX Briefing 2 February 2007 (BHF Bank)
Highlights
• Fed sees progress in combating inflation
• G7 divided on yen
• EMU inflation in 2007 expected to be below 2%
... See full report

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:22 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
lot's of shite going on haiti islander.... a friend of mine went there to visit his family... when he reached they gave him a 9 and asked him if he feels better with an SLR they can give him one... as soon as he went out in the front yard for a smoke... phatt tat! the column chipped away and fell on top of him as he dove, the guards around him were hiding behind the trees like kittens... LOL

I would have answered them back...

NY RP 17:21 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have an sources for tick data on the majors. Need source with clean data for testing. Any input is appreciated. TIA.

SINGAPORE GFX 17:20 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NY BABK TRADER,

You should not give your opinion about this forum so soon. This a great forum and a very useful one indeed. CT CRIS always gives his views just like everyone else and it is up to the individuals to take it or not. So there is no need to batter Cris or anyone else.

pd cumino 17:19 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Ty Spot. Good luck.
(BTW I agree on the FED move, but it isn't a news)

Spotforex NY 17:18 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Carry Trade is also on its last legs IMHO....but not jumping in front of that train just yet.

NYC Al 17:16 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Thanks AZ, I am sticking on the basis of eur/usd looks like a very short lived pullback. Most "analyst" (who cares ) but... are looking at a 130-132 eur/usd. I guess that why we speculate

Spotforex NY 17:12 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 17:05

First that the best scenario growth scenario and reasons for ECB rate hikes have been factored in (4.00-4.25% in a lot of forecasts for ECB rates at end of 2007)...and most expect the FED to cut or at least stay on hold.....I see the next FED move as a hike.

second: I expect oil prices to continue to move lower ($60 is my ceiling). This will give the US consumer a bit more fuel to spend

Third, Wage gains in the US are the real concern, driving spending and keeping inflation core above target.

By late summer 2007

then the next leg of dollar weakness will set in with 1.40+ in euro

St. Pete Islander 17:05 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 16:56 GMT February 2, 2007

Ok, Rafe .... I'll check in with Jay. Mine changed, too. Will send you the new one. Glad to hear you moved. It was the right thing to do. Later, GT.

'sailor

pd cumino 17:05 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 16:56 GMT February 2, 2007
May I ask the reasons and the time approximately? Tx

AZUSA 4X-ed 17:03 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
albertson 15:24 GMT February 2, 2007 ||| will tread lightly as contrarians have a tendency to prevail (for whatever reason) in situations like this. Expect van Geico and Co. to get louder when that's about to happen.

UK Alex 16:59 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
HBOS Market Commentary:

January payrolls have historically been generally very volatile and difficult to forecast, more so than usual. The seasonal adjustment factor for January can be extreme, leading to sharp deviations away from consensus. The ADP employment number earlier in the week showed a healthy +152k jobs added whilst initial jobless claims have been on a declining trend. The data suggest a firm number and the market looks for 140k. We look for a slightly higher number of 150k. Average hourly earnings in January are expected to come in at 0.3% from 0.5% whilst we look for the unemployment rate to remain at 4.5%, in line with consensus. Business survey data on employment during January are mixed, with the Empire manufacturing survey softer and the Philadelphia Fed survey slightly firmer.

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:58 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
global-view:- you have mail...

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:56 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
St. Pete Islander 16:33 GMT February 2, 2007

yeap.. still safe but the new one with my name in it.

ask jay if you like he has it on file... i'll mail him just in case,

Spotforex NY 16:56 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
If EUR/USD manages to close below 1.2850 on a weekly basis, then I would call for 1.10 EUR in a few quarters time. Sub 1.25 confirms that view.

For the time being the consolidation play remains in vogue.

Hourly - sub 1,2960 opens up for 1.2900ish...

Happy Hunting all

NY 16:55 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC BT,
Can I have your email..so that we can share our ideas....tia,

NY Bank Trader 16:51 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD coming in lower on the back of EUR/JPY sales and a slightly long EUR/USD market. EUR/GBP demand around here and bids at 1.2950 make me not want tobe short EUR/USD. Having said that, market still looks stale long EUR. It might take all afternoon for EUR to climb back, but I think it closes around 1.2985 after USD/JPY breaks lower

CT Cris 16:50 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC BT
this is the report of actionforexafter data which is similiar to my call b4 data :

Dollar edged lower immediately after a weaker-than-expected employment report today but quickly recovers. NFP increased 111k jobs in Jan, much below expectation of 149k

NYC Al 16:47 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
any thoughts on pullback for eur/usd, I am still LONG at 78, break it to me gently though

NY Bank Trader 16:47 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Happy Days ......

NY 16:44 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Tanks NYC BT....I shorted both :)

NYC BT 16:44 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Sure Cris, whatever you say.

Global-View 16:43 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Bank Trader. If you spend some time here you will find our forums run smoothly 99% of the time, quite an amazing feat considering the fact that our members come from over 100 countries. We work in the background to keep order but will let the foum self-police (which we encourage) to help maintain our high standards. This is also why we have GVI, where there is always a professional tone.

CT Cris 16:43 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC BT 16:35 GMT February 2, 2007
======
I trade according my signal...
I bought b4 data at 19687 and exited at 19734.taking the traget of 40-50 pips.
then I shorted it immediately at 19742....I tried to exit at 19718 ,but my platform freezed ...then I exited at 19704.

Hong Kong Ahe 16:42 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NY bank trader 16:20 GMT February 2, 2007 - There is only little move of USDYEN and EURYEN as it was out on Bloomberg news. Perhaps if the news headline said "From a source report.." or "It is rumoured..." has a greater impact than "said by Morgan Stanley Chief....". I am thinking what is in the mind of other big boys after looking this news. GLGT. ;)

NY Bank Trader 16:41 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
more comfortable shorting USD/JPY.... as I dont like selling EUROS here...

NY 16:41 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC bank Trader:
Should i short EUR/JPY @ current price? what's the target?...

NYC Al 16:41 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
well said Banker, come on guys, let's stick to what we want..a couple of great ideas to make some PIPS....

NY Bank Trader 16:39 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Is this a forum for trade ideas and info exchange or a gripe exchange an ego defense?

NY Bank Trader 16:37 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
TRADE IDEA ******

sell USD/JPY hjere at 121.05-10... stop at 121.25 ... take profit at 120.74

NYC BT 16:35 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Cris, this is what you wrote. Don't give after the fact bogus sounding trades when you said the opposite. You (and no one else) never had a chance to sell at 42. Just speak the truth. No harm in admitting you were wrong. Alot of people got caught wrongfooted today.

CT Cris 11:55 GMT February 2, 2007
gbp.usd...wait to decline few pips after data ,then buy
take profit 40-50 pips.

NY Bank Trader 16:34 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Stops rest in USD/JPY under 120.95 in groups. There are also stops in EUR/JPY under 157. I expect both of these to be triggered in the NY afternoon.

NY Bank Trader 16:33 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Those comments were from yesterday, RE Paulson

St. Pete Islander 16:33 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 16:27 GMT February 2, 2007

Ok, Rafe .... will do. Still at the "safe" one?

NY 16:31 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Paulson comments that he is comfortable w/ yen, saying yen is place in competitive marketplace, brushing aside european concerns...

CT Cris 16:30 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 16:19 GMT February 2, 2007
CT Cris 16:17 GMT February 2, 2007
=========
everything works against traders in forex world even the traders they work against themselves.

I shorted the cable after the rise @ 19742 ..then start to decline..the price decline on the chart,and freeze on my platform to prevent me exit and secure the profit.
then it resumed normal b4 it decline more.

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:27 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
St. Pete Islander 16:25 GMT February 2, 2007

send me mail man or if you want i'll mail you, i have moved to the other side of the world... i am totally carefree now, i.e. living light well always have been... lol

gl

GVI john 16:27 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
OK enough

St. Pete Islander 16:25 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Caribbean! Rafe... 16:15 GMT February 2, 2007

Hello Rafe ..... Hope you are well. Long time no see. I see that OMIL's Friday Food Fights are still alive and well. Good fortune, my friend.

NY bank trader 16:20 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Morgan Stanley Chief Economist in Tokyo says the MOF will intervene in the YEN next week to appease Europeans in front of the G-7. Out now on Bloomberg news.

NYC Al 16:15 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG.....
this is OUR place to make a couple of bucks, let's all lose the attitudes

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:15 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
St. Pete Islander 16:14 GMT February 2, 2007

hey you!!

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:14 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 16:11 GMT February 2, 2007

come on perrie... this is why only 1% make money..... they culture their relationships... that's the secret... I discovered this the hard way... now i am on my way.

good luck for 2007 mate.

St. Pete Islander 16:14 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
OMIL ..... are you still in the house? Still have Chatter Box?

Como Perrie 16:11 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 15:44 GMT February 2, 2007

am not in any competition with you ct cris or whatever - as every time someone here told you that you making a dumb call you taking It so personal as It would frustrate your ego - nor do not like to be a competitor of anyone.
so the heck post your knowing ahead of datas calls and magnify yourself whenever you wish. this still will not change my opionion nor the one of those others that are not beginners looking for the holy cow.

btw have you ever considered an psychologist or psychiatric check up... your best when you get hectic and wrong is to tell tales when shown out of your numberologies and strategies one two and when your wrong that's three and four and none understood here them well.

me looking at the forum as a place to exchange ideas about markets and that's all..not selling anything, nor preparing a paid service, nor acting as throwing out certainties when there are none..

play on lil boy

and consider to grow up one day

Gen dk 16:09 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:09 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD: Next weeks entry is 13082 +-20 pips, still more money to be made with a downtrend as it is still in effect... if 13082 is breached to the upside then I will revise my upside shorting price... most likely it's 13175 if breached... Breach above that means market will start tilting too much and the big players might enter with their heavy shorts.

gl gt

hagwe

Cannes Oil man 16:02 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
london av 15:59 GMT February 2, 2007

Guess many did like u did...Take profit..

london av 15:59 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
any views on gold? closed out my long positions at 658 and now back down to 645 level. looking to buy again but would appreciate comments

NYC-Al 15:53 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
sorry guys !!

Global-View 15:52 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC, could you add an initial to distingush you from someone else using that handle. TIA

NYC 15:51 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
London, THIS one in particular I am in @ 78

London HC 15:50 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC 15:43 GMT February 2, 2007 - I think alot of traders would welcome it.

CT Cris 15:44 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:13 GMT February 2, 2007
CT Cris 11:52 GMT February 2, 2007
======
surprise too..that you are still around.

NYC 15:43 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
anyone concerned about eur.usd making a move UP

Gen dk 15:26 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 15:24 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 14:57 GMT, you are great. The Eur/Yen submaring is diving.

albertson 15:24 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA....."AMEN" brother, forget the peddlers let's talk the real talk....for me eur/usd 1.2990 EOD

UK Alex 15:23 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Euro/Yen getting hit now.

AZUSA 4X-ed 15:20 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Certainly these 'junkies' know how to play their 'options'... take out the noise and you have no detractors, aside from just a few crackpots who want to peddle their 'signals'. Tx for the promptly news Jay, John, et al!

Gen dk 15:17 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

RIC fxq 15:15 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
4cast:
* 02 Feb 07: 14:57(LDN) - FX NOW! GBP/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - GBP/USD drops with EUR/USD, EUR/GBP pushed by E. European

EUR/USD's drop from the highs of 1.3060-65 was fuelled in part by sales from an Eastern European sovereign. The sales estimated in the EUR1-1.5 bln range were not the only trades credited to the Eastern European name. While GBP/USD dropped in sympathy with EUR/USD, GBP's outperformance of EUR can be blamed on the same principle. The above Eastern European sovereign was also selling EUR/GBP

Como Perrie 15:12 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
EurUsd unless holds above Its key supports aat 1.2920/10 and 1.2860 is yet on up. Doubt we see the latter today at least. In case 1.2910 is done cable might print 1.95 again. Not likely however but a risk levels sub 1.2950 do start to open up later on.

Gen dk 15:04 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LKWD JJ 15:03 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
stopped out @73

Como Perrie 15:00 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Tks ..looks showing out into eurgbp currently 6590 from upper 663ies last days

Global-View GVI 14:25 GMT February 2, 2007
From GVI:

Spotforex NY 14:21 GMT February 2, 2007
MNI running a headline that ECB to pause after next rate hike..

LKWD JJ 15:00 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
albertson 14:57 GMT February 2, 2007
LKWD, is 88 the R1 or R2 I show it as R2, be careful
===========================
no it is s2 (support 2)

Bahrain BAH1 15:00 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
University of Michigan sentiment index for the end of January 96.9 from the mid-month 98.0 and Dec's final 91.7. The market was for a final Jan of 98.0.

US December factory orders +2.4% from Nov's rev +1.2% (prelim +0.9% )and against forecasts for +1.9%.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 14:59 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 12:02 GMT February 2, 2007
Thank you for the kind words. Your appreciation with others helps me come back and post all the time. I could not respond earlier today because of the nature of the day (I like to affectionally call bloody Friday LOL).

I see some people have been stopped out. I hope not many of you were burned by the market movement but that is the way it goes in this crazy business with the bucket shops. Short term view eur/usd pair: Looks like the key support (2970) held ground for now but the indicators for the eur/usd pair have turned bearish and the now 2926-36 selling area is becoming a reality (next confirming sell signal is the break of 2860-70 area). The area is no signal yet but it is being generated in the meantime. The price action is still in the well defined range that has held the market hostage for three weeks IMHO. I hope everyone has a great and safe weekend. See you on the other side. Peace and GT

Como Perrie 14:58 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Japs domestic economy has shown out badly last series of funamentals, what holds the rising/dropping sun economy up is exterior economy. overall do think still they do not what to do
and given the march japanese balance closing book time, hard to imagine there a hike before that, this given the many currency unblances the japanese corporations do hold into their books.

albertson 14:58 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
I'm no big shot I have it @ 75, and I am getting really nervous

Hong Kong Ahe 14:57 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:51 GMT February 2, 2007 - Hi Kelvin, u r welcome. GL and GT.

Sydney ACC 14:57 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 14:54 GMT February 2, 2007
any leaks on u of m yet?

We only get one leak a day.

albertson 14:57 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
LKWD, is 88 the R1 or R2 I show it as R2, be careful

albertson 14:56 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
LKWD, love it @ 88

albertson 14:56 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
LKWD, we still have 3 minutes

LKWD JJ 14:56 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   

albertson 14:54 GMT February 2, 2007
i have 88 .

LKWD JJ 14:54 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
any leaks on u of m yet?

albertson 14:54 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
LKWD, like that, I am so on board with you at the LONG at 2975-2985,

UK Alex 14:53 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
albertson 14:48 GMT February 2, 2007
It was meant as a possible explanation for what has happened after the NFP release. Leave aside the ECB rumour for now and try to figure out what those black boxes are doing.

HK Kevin 14:51 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 14:41 GMT, thanks. I am short at 121.02 with resistance 121.08 in mind. Ths sudden spike up of USD/JPY nealy hit my stop while I am not in front of the screen. So I will keep it over the weekend if the pair close below 121.08 today. OR cut it with small loss at late NY time

Como Perrie 14:50 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
19658 oearlier...maybe will sell if trough 1.9610/40 later on..gotta see yet some an half an hour...and then leave.

Rye,NY et 14:49 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...According to my charts, today's high hit, precisely, the .618 Fib of the Bearish Channel. We could see a drop of 2 or 3 cents from here...imho...GL/GT

LKWD JJ 14:49 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
good spot to buy euros as we had 70 pip drop after nfp due to revisions but holding 1 hr s2 [email protected] 75 also 200ma on 1hr @73

Como Perrie 14:49 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
yeap eurusd 1.2950/30 at risk later on, but some undecision around here..so me almost done for the day...

maybe will watch usdjpy big back normality shot into 122 later on

maybe relax and stay out into next week.. been selling upon proximity 1.9760 as of earlier NFPs large levels and cached earlier at 58 both..

now just watching some 1.2970/50 and 121.60/122

albertson 14:48 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
I meant Alex, but thank you really thank you for the summary

albertson 14:46 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
No offense Kevin, But an " hour late and many pips short"
thanks anyway

UK Alex 14:43 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
This morning, three of the four majors lie close to significant technical levels, as the market awaits non-farm payroll data:

EUR/USD is trading just below pivotpoint resistance at 1.3050 (#6). A break above this level would suggest a rally to test its downtrend, currently at 1.3250 (#5). A failure should result in a re-test of support at 1.2865 (#7, Jan low) and , concievably, a test of its uptrend, currently at 1.2800 (#3).

USD/JPY is currently 'testing the break' of its daily uptrend at 121.05 (#5). A rally through this level should see a test of the years' high at 122.20, just in front of Fibonacci resistance at 122.35. A failure should result in a drop to suppot that has formed at 120.00.

USD/CHF has been threatening to break its daily uptrend, currently at 1.2410 (#4) over the last two sessions. A downside break will find some support at 1.2375 (late Jan low) in front of 38.2% Fibonacci support at 1.2310. A bounce will find resistance at the 1.2570 Jan high.

GBP/USD has tested and held its uptrend twice during the month of January. It is currently bounded by this uptrend, currently at 1.9490 (#6) and its 2007 high at 1.9915.

Hong Kong Ahe 14:41 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:19 GMT February 2, 2007, Hi Kevin, next monday Yen will gain its strength and has a higher probability below 120. GL and GT.

Portugal camisa 14:39 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
cable headed for 1.96 just waiting for 15:00GMT news

Dallas GEP 14:33 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
closed usd/chf longs

UK Alex 14:32 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Rumors are now making the rounds that there was an error in the NFP report, that West Coast numbers were somehow missing, which would imply a stronger NFP report, but this sounds very lame as far as rumors go.

Hong Kong Ahe 14:29 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:19 GMT February 2, 2007, Hi Kevin, I have no bias on USDJPY as it is a manipulated currency. The move of JPY is actually determined by EURYEN (or oil money) and other Yen cross. As I perceive cross will move more tonight, USDJPY is good to Short now target USDJPY back to 120 level before 1:00 am HKT and then it settles down its dust for next week.

Gen dk 14:26 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-View GVI 14:25 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
From GVI:

Spotforex NY 14:21 GMT February 2, 2007
MNI running a headline that ECB to pause after next rate hike..

UK Alex 14:24 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Talk of ECB pause after next rate hike.

lugano fc 14:23 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
what is the new so good for usd? bush died? ;-)

Hong Kong Dom 14:22 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Thanks guys, my stop had done at 1.3070, I find other platform highest is 1.3065, quite confused

Atlanta South 14:21 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
ACC
13:42/ Nice call. gt

HK Kevin 14:19 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 14:14 GMT, hi. What is your bias on USD/JPY?

London Misha 14:18 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
1.3070 high with a bad credit misshit at 1.3074

Pittsburgh wjs 14:18 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
My platform shows 1.3064 as high on the EUR/USD.

Vilnius 14:15 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
EBS 1.3074

albertson 14:15 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
GVI 3064 about an 1/2 hour ago

Atlanta South 14:15 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
I'm showing 3067.

Hong Kong Ahe 14:14 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 17:43 GMT February 1, 2007
Carry Trade NZDYEN (not over 82.50) and AUDYEN (not over 94) will go on unwinding. Watch time frame now till 1:00 am HKT/Singapore time. GL and GT.

GVI Jay 14:14 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
1.3074 was the EBS high

Hong Kong Dom 14:13 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone tell what is the highest on Euro/US, after NFP,. Thanks.

UK Alex 14:12 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:59 GMT February 2, 2007
Who is on the bid? Hearing talk of a possible LBO of a FTSE-100 company.

Gen dk 14:12 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

albertson 14:05 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
so 09:00est and we are taking out 3007 eur/usd stay or run ??? I'm staying , I think the Unemployment report is "pushing" the enveleope for Bulls...smile all good day

NYC 14:05 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
No news. Keep on your hard hat.

Sofia mik 14:05 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
stop hunting..next is jpy crosses
gl/gt

London HC 14:02 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Is there any news out?

Atlanta South 14:01 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
After testing 3050, E/$ may start to the downside. Any
views from anyone on this? Tks & gt

CT Cris 13:59 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Bandung Frankie 13:54 GMT February 2, 2007
What happened whit market guys .....????
====
I told you..market will surprise you.

albertson 13:57 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys
am I alone or just NUTZ I am looking at 3028 eur/usd

Bandung Frankie 13:54 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
What happened whit market guys .....????
GBP/USD have to 1.9800 .... in daily chart ....
Oke guys .... God bless you all .... gl / gt .

GVI john 13:51 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Updated with all revisions...

GVI john 13:50 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
from GVI...

   Table B.  Revisions in total nonfarm employment, January-December 2006,
   seasonally adjusted
   
   (In thousands)
   _______________________________________________________________________
                  |                     |
                  |       Levels        |      Over-the-month changes
                  |---------------------|---------------------------------
    Year and month|    As    |    As    |    As    |    As    |
                  |previously|  revised |previously|  revised | Difference
                  |published |          |published |          |
   _______________|__________|__________|__________|__________|___________
         2006     |          |          |          |          |
   January........|  134,530 |  135,110 |    154   |   206    |     52
   February.......|  134,730 |  135,410 |    200   |   300    |    100
   March..........|  134,905 |  135,659 |    175   |   249    |     74
   April..........|  135,017 |  135,803 |    112   |   144    |     32
   May............|  135,117 |  135,906 |    100   |   103    |      3
   June...........|  135,251 |  136,030 |    134   |   124    |    -10
   July...........|  135,374 |  136,252 |    123   |   222    |     99
   August.........|  135,604 |  136,438 |    230   |   186    |    -44
   September......|  135,807 |  136,636 |    203   |   198    |     -5
   October........|  135,893 |  136,745 |     86   |   109    |     23
   November.......|  136,047 |  136,941 |    154   |   196    |     42
   December(p)....|  136,214 |  137,147 |    167   |   206    |     39
   -----------------------------------------------------------------------

CT Cris 13:46 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:55 GMT February 2, 2007
gbp.usd...wait to decline few pips after data ,then buy
take profit 40-50 pips.

NFP will surprise you...no big reaction will follow the data just
few pips to down then rise up slowly.

======
i dont think the above signals came by luck.


Syd 13:44 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
$1 trillion may be staked on the carry trades http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/14e4e025f57b685/bsccc020207.pdf

san miniato ab 13:44 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 13:42 GMT February 2, 2007
i m with u my frd. long at 120,78 usd yen after initial downward reaction of data, tp at 122,10 sl 120,40

Atlanta South 13:43 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Caba/
ref 13:13: I agree. Meaningless. Gt

Sydney ACC 13:42 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
As this news gets digested USD will strengthen.

Philadelphia Caba 13:34 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
why care about NFP with such revisions every month....

Sydney ACC 13:33 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Previous raised from 169 to 206.

Syd 13:33 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
*DJ US Nov Payrolls Revised To +196 From +154
US Dec Unemployment Left Unrevised At 4.5%
US Dec Payrolls Revised To +206K From +167K
US Jan Overall Workweek -0.1 Hour To 33.8 Hours
US Jan Manufacturing Payrolls -16K; Svc-Producing +104K

Cannes Oil man 13:31 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
111K as no one seems to post it;

GVI john 13:26 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
jake with the data

denver jake 13:24 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Anybody here know exactly when the revisions are released? Is it with current data or lagged behind? If so how long behind? Thanks guys

Cannes Oil man 13:23 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
a number like 20K or 225K would be..."fun".

AZUSA 4X-ed 13:22 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
20k-225k range. Bloomberg consensus at 150k. Worth noting that some analysts are calling for an upside surprise due to warmer weather. Also, anything is tradable... just ask the bonds guys!

Como Perrie 13:14 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Looking for larger trends say into April this one is some to be considered, but not at current market levels I guess and maybe too early as well, but might become a factor market will be weighing onto from this late february on


13:06 COM US defends military build-up in Gulf against 'aggressive' Iran

am off (the forum) for some hours now

Cannes Oil man 13:12 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
So far E$ looks great, and continuation towards 1.31 very likely , however friday data might make the pile of cards stumble in their tracks , and retreat towards 1.2950 yet again..
Though if 1.3050 breaks we will definitely see a much larger move to the upside only a few mnts to wait.

HK Kevin 13:10 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 12:54 GMT, AUD holds 7720 today, so I amy be wrong. Covered my short position this Asian afternoon at 7728.
Short small USD/JPY at 121.02 during the earlier spike with 50 pips.

Como Perrie 13:07 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 12:54 GMT February 2, 2007
Yeap agree Oil man

difficult to trade NFPs in general

anyway I like to have an idea of the embedded risks both ways, that said I might choose to enter, to wait, to stay flat at all or to look to the next datas and Paulson or Bernanke..your choice, there's no magic behind..

Cannes Oil man 12:54 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:50 GMT February 2, 2007

Don't even think you could trade the data even if you had every number before hand..Sometimes a good data goes the other way, and vice versa..It's what the consensus makes of the number , hard to read that before hand.

Como Perrie 12:50 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
if NFPs (always largely talking) are set between 170 and 100 It will be stop fishing mode of first second or third order..It deepence from the outcome ..the closer the data the minor the volatility, the wider the farer stops will be sought..

out of the upper range It will be trending sharply, the higher the reading the market is set for buying dollar mode, the lower selling dollar mode.

see later

bibi

Como Perrie 12:43 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
many tks john for the data recap

looking cable largerly It will take a decent suprise to take out into trend mode the beast

either ways me looking 1.9765 for 1.99 2.00 or 1.9595 for 1.9430 1.94 to be print out early next week maybe.

in between will be short term scalping swinging mode.

GVI john 12:37 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
from gvi
At 13:30 GMT (08:30 EST), January employment is seen +145,000 following a gain of +167,000 in December. The unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4.5%. At 15:00 GMT (10:00 EST), the January final University of Michigan survey is 97.7 vs. a preliminary reading of 98.0. At 15:00 GMT (10:00 EST), December factory orders are seen gaining +1.8% vs +0.9%.

Como Perrie 12:33 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
US 13:30 GMT: January Non-Farm Payrolls expected 150k vs 167K, Unemployment Rate expected 4.5% unchanged, January Hourly Earnings expected 0.2% to 0.3% vs 0.5% (MoM).

US 15:00 GMT: December Factory Orders expected 0.7% to 1.5% vs 0.9% and Factory Inventories expected 0.2% unchanged.

January final University of Michigan Confidence expected 93 to 99.5 vs 98.


US 15:00 GMT: US Treasury’s Paulson testifies on the US budget at House Ways and Means committee.

US 17:45 GMT: US Fed’s Bernanke speaks in Omaha.

AZUSA 4X-ed 12:29 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
I believe CT Cris was consulting Punxsutawney Phil on the NFP data, which interestingly enough, also told him to short crude in anticipation of an early spring!

Cannes Oil man 12:16 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
I might however cut this positions like i did 2 days ago and go long/short a gbp pair after datas.

Como Perrie 12:14 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
funamentally speking economists around are mild upon the datas and this the reason the market stays as is..mostly flat

Como Perrie 12:13 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:52 GMT February 2, 2007

well CT ..in between the normal market you do well in general but when It comes to datas you are very presumptional and most times wrongs, even if at times you just lucky there nothing else..

To summarise It's very enethical to try yourself forecasting the unforecastable, but would be you doing that for yourself that's fine even crazy OTHER THING IS when It comes to mislead people around.

so be consistent and wait the outcome

Cannes Oil man 12:06 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Perth mgv 09:20 GMT February 2, 2007

If i was trading on technicals short term i would be short from 70 still (i was short for a time) which is the entry short of my model.
I am myself long 6860 +6825+6789..Average entry 6819 Stops still at 6745 looking still for 71 and above..
Model Entries ..I can see already model will go long on the break of 6929...it is currently short as it trades on technicals , and this is a discretional trade.
easy criticism/construction is always easier than positive comments/building things.
Gl

Atlanta South 12:02 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Overnight I closed all positions & will be on the sideline for the nfp. For the Eur/Usd I have resistance @ 3135-40 /
support @ 2920-35. After the nfp dust settles maybe a
defined direction will emerge. Did take a small loss on the
Eur/usd for the week.

Miami OMIL//:As always it is good to read your concise & informative posts. Tks for the time you devote to helping
others on this forum. Have a great weekend & gt.

CT Cris 11:55 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd...wait to decline few pips after data ,then buy
take profit 40-50 pips.

CT Cris 11:52 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
NFP will surprise you...no big reaction will follow the data just
few pips to down then rise up slowly.

Philadelphia Caba 11:40 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
good mornin' everyone!
GCM, why are u hidding behind another initials?? Jay, correct me, if I'm wrong..than sorry. So Maestro, what about post your levels in advance..? or you will be back later with 'turning points expl'?...tia...lol...gl!

any view, why is aussie so firm, so far, with kiwi printing a new low..? thanks

Auckland peat 11:15 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
always take what is on offer!
I will leave NFP to others... closed my trades tonite now + 55 in AUD/NZD in demo heh, and Eur/Jpy (they yen crosses did break out of their day ranges ) +20 in the real a/c. But cautious with those as I see the up trend now as corrective.
Its a bit scalpish I know but growing the account and confirming my strategies are the only real objectives here.
Good luck to you all later on and be careful it can be a bit of a minefield. over and out

Auckland trotter 10:57 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 10:33 GMT February 2, 2007
I see taking what is on offer in regards the EUR/USD for now up to the fundamentals due out around the opening of the US market.

I have the general pressure for the EUR/USD as down for now.

The 1.3016 level I have as a level to watch. It is around the 38.2% fib on the 4hr 20day chart, and is around the level the price went up from yesterday.

Ref., my previous posts.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 10:36 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Sorry very long night I meant to say resistance not support.

It is still sell on failed rallies for this pair until the main support (3080-90) is take out IMHO.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 10:33 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Well we are in the mist of another bloody Friday. Try not to be the virgin sacrificial lamb (and many will be). A quick overview on my last comments. Eur/usd long (pip raiding) was closed around the 3020 area to secure profits before the fun starts for Friday. I have key supports around the 2990, 2970 area with a barrier sell signal around the 2930-20 area for now. We are still within the defined range for the past 3 weeks. Tops are still in the 3050-60 area and bottoms in the 2870-80 area for now. It is still sell on failed rallies for this pair until the main support (3080-90) is take out IMHO. Peace and GT

Syd 10:27 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Trigger Levels For EUR/USD - BarCap

After 3-weeks of sideways drift today's US NFP's offer hope of a decisive breakout, says Barclays Capital. The bank says the 07 trend is down, and balance of probability favors a decline, although a daily close below the 100 day MA at 1.2895 is needed to suggest the rate is heading toward 1.23. Topside, a close above 1.3060 is needed to reverse the underlying trend and target a return to 1.3260. Now at 1.3020.

Gen dk 10:20 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 10:16 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
The Wall Street Journal says that Federal Reserve officials have discussed whether an implicit, or "soft" inflation target might be introduced. The paper says that this has developed from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's belief that the bank needs to develop a clearer, more systematic way of communicating its intentions. The paper quotes Fed officials as saying that one form of implicit targeting would be to extend the horizon of the Fed's economic forecasts beyond two years, with the inflation forecast for the last year of the period representing the Fed's implicit target.

Syd 09:58 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Jeremy Stretch, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank International says to watch the AUD coming into the G7 recommends shorting it

manchester 09:56 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
thanks mgv. nzd/usd does seem a funny pairing as it only seems to go in one direction once a trend starts

Perth mgv 09:35 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
manchester 09:10 GMT February 2, 2007
[email protected] nd [email protected]

Perth mgv 09:20 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
MANCHESTER ...the reason that people post on this forum is to post and read...Make sure you read everything and do not follow Oil lamps posts..Trading the nzd based on technicals is a recipe from disaster..also it isnt a day trade...a wise sage posted this on this forum sometime time ago....gl

Perth mgv 15:49 GMT February 1, 2007
Cannes Oil man 15:06 GMT February 1, 2007
In front of uridashi maturities, that is not such a smart idea..should stay away from drinking the bio methanol..lol


Gen dk 09:18 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manchester 09:10 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
anyone suggest a reason for the kiwi sell off against $ and the next support level?

Syd 09:09 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Cable support at 1.9487 contained the January 31 sell-off notes RBC Capital Markets, however the bank still believes the downside is vulnerable. Now trading at 1.9656. Resistance at 1.9730, 1.9832 and 1.9926 is expected to attract medium-term selling pressure while a daily close below 1.9487 would open immediate risk toward the recent 1.9234 lows.

Athens MK 08:39 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 20:24 GMT February 1, 2007
==================================
Athens MK 13:29 GMT January 29, 2007
Good morning,

GBP/$: looking at the charts we see a potential scenario of cable bottoming out around 1.9515-30 with a first target of 1.9725

Intraday: If bias continues to be bearish then a first target of 1.9536 should be hit. A second target of 1.9482 if selling pressure increases.
==================================

Good evening everyone,

Just took a quick peek at the markets and saw our first target has been touched from the call of Jan.29....

Looking for a second target of 1.9850 especially if the news tomorrow is bearish for the dollar...... Otherwise we could have a period of consolidation but for those that like to trade in a swing cycle look for the next target 1.9850.....
============================

Feb.2: Today if cable retains bullish bias then I am expecting 1.9782 as a first target and 1.9809 as the second....

Syd 08:27 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Upside Risk In Payrolls - Commerzbank
Since ADP's +152K estimate for payrolls hit the wires the market's expectations for today's non-farm payrolls is likely to have risen, says Commerzbank. Add to this the low number of initial jobless claims in the survey week for the employment report the bank's Economics team expects a robust increase for NFP's of 175K, with risks skewed to the upside. DJN forecast is +155K, data due 1330 GMT.

Auckland peat 08:04 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
and in the meantime they'll hammer the Antiopodeans ...
Aud/NZD broke out on the upside from the pennant it formed today. only traded it in demo myself, very wary of that cross.

Auckland trotter 08:00 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 07:50 GMT February 2, 2007
I should add that I see down pressure to the 23.6% fib on the 1day 6mo chart around 1.2982, for this session.


Auckland trotter 07:50 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
I see the EUR/USD as having a descending resistance level on the 1hr 5day chart, which is now around 1.3021 - which is an interesting level on the 5min 12hr chart.

R1 weekly pivot is 1.3012
38.2% fib on the 4hr 20day chart is around 1.3016
RSI(14) and (5) on the 4hr 20 day chart is coming down from over bought
RSI(5) on the 1day 6mo chart is coming down from over bought.

However:
The 1wk 3yr chart still shows some up
US fundamentals due out later

Will see what happens when the UK market opens. Probably a small trading range until the release of the US fundamentals. But then the market will do what the market does.

bris 07:30 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
testing

USA BAY 06:18 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR-CHF 1.6193. Current fall is near an end of wave around 1.6155 - 1.6193 zone, a rally should then procede to above 1.6206 or 1.6219. Fall below 1.6141 would OPEN a bearish trend

USA BAY 04:56 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
[NZD/USD] drifted to an intraday low of 0.6818 from an earlier high of 0.6833 ...
[NZD/USD] drifted to an intraday low of 0.6818 from an earlier high of 0.6833 as the market takes a breather after the overnight mauling. The market is still nervous to the downside for the pair as persistent selling in the NZD/JPY by Japanese investors has kept any upside retracement in the NZD/USD limited . With no NZ data out today, the market will focus on the US NFP later tonight and more importantly on the G7 meeting next weekend for direction. With noises still pretty loud calling for a redress of the weak JPY, JPY cross selling including the NZD/JPY will hamper any upside gains for the NZD/USD. We therefore prefer to sell rallies to 0.6840.

Syd 04:34 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
An unwinding of carry-trade positions and losses on crosses pulled the New Zealand dollar to a fresh two-month low Friday, and dealers say the currency remains vulnerable overnight as markets await crucial U.S. jobs data.
Beyond the overnight session, Michael Gordon, currency strategist at Westpac Bank in Wellington, said next week's domestic wages and employment reports will pose some risk to the Kiwi. "While sentiment is against the Kiwi, I wouldn't be surprised to see it head lower again," he said. Westpac's Gordon said the Kiwi has looked stretched against the U.S. dollar and thinks the selloff on the crosses has been triggered by its inability to extend a recent rally. The narrowing two-year New Zealand-U.S. swapspread has also weighed on the Kiwi, he said. Murray Hindley, a senior dealer at ANZ Bank, said the markets will now focus on U.S. payrolls overnight, and domestic fourth quarter wages and jobs data due Monday and Thursday, respectively.


Syd 03:59 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
'Voters Are Losing Trust'
Senior Labour figures have begun to express fears over the "corrosive" effects of cash for honours allegations after Tony Blair was questioned by police for a second time
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-1249883,00.html

Auckland peat 03:55 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
tbh I dont listen to SNB Oil Man. ok thanks. I guess what I'm angling at is whether same political pressure and whatever effect that will have on Yen might work on Swissy as well.

Cannes Oil man 03:30 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 03:18 GMT February 2, 2007

You must not be listening to the SNB then..."Market in a state of Euphoria" ...Looks SNB Ross.

Auckland peat 03:18 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Chf is a carry trade just like Yen crosses are and Swissy has depreciated as much as the Yen over the last year. Does anyone ever raise this in a political context? If not , why not?

FW CS 03:03 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man
Thanks. Well u know me I hold till it reverses and right now I am short at 121.95

Cannes Oil man 03:02 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
If it does manage to go above 122.18 from here, then again , i will reassess the situation , CS.

Cannes Oil man 03:00 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
CS:
The question is what time frame are you referring to ?

A week? 2 weeks?...if more patience , and a break sub 120 happens(119.80 sub weekly close), trend changes (on a weekly status) ,then 117--115---108..BTW monthly wise the pivotal zone was at 120.66..So we barely managed to close under it , the last time it did this was on 12/01/05...It finished 6 months later at 108...History might repeat itself..Won't be buying $/Y myself any time soon.
gn

Cannes Oil man 02:52 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Well the more efficient a market is , the less trendy it should be , particularly for something as "virtual" as currency trading.

Anyways tomorrow will be a good moving day, with e$ possibly going to 1.31 , if it manages to keep above 1.30 before close, road will be clear ahead...If not , then back to range..

GN.

FW CS 02:50 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man
So does your bearish $ view extend to $/Yen? If so what are you looking for in $/Yen in the near future? I think a move down to 117 would be reasonable as Yen spec shorts are still near extreme levels

USA BAY 02:09 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Divisions between the G7 nations about how to cope with the weakening ...
Divisions between the G7 nations about how to cope with the weakening [YEN] will prevent any concerted effort to stabilise the Japanese currency at next week's G7 finance ministers meeting in Essen, according to a front-page FT report. FT noted comments from various officials but noted big differences btwn US and European policy makers over the causes of the YEN's weakness. The will protect the Japanese from any European effort to put yen centrestage in the G7 communique. FT noted European central bankers are also less likely to back a clear statement on the YEN at Essen than eurozone politicians and that ECB has noticeably avoided comment. Meanwhile, US attention is more focused on the YUAN and Paulson's testimony to the Senate Banking Cmte showed US thinks YEN weakness is driven by economic fundamentals.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AZUSA 4X-ed 02:07 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Issue of Yen: Paulson stated, "What I said to the auto manufacturers is that there has been no intervention in the yen since March of 2004. I don't like verbal intervention. I don't think it determines where markets trend.”

EUR and GBP: From a technical and fundamental standpoint there is no reason for EUR to go higher; something I can't say applies to GBP. Could be interesting how things will shake out from here-on-out!

USA BAY 02:03 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/USD] saw some selling by US names after holding at the 0.7730 level on t...
[AUD/USD] saw some selling by US names after holding at the 0.7730 level on the release of the Dec trade data with the pair dipping to an intraday low of 0.7722. There was also selling in the AUD/JPY by Japanese Sec House and Investment Trust which also weigh on the AUD/USD. The US NFP tonight will provide a fresh direction to the pair as will the RBA meeting on Feb. A strong US NFP will see the pair test and break the 0.7700 level which will be exacerbated by the RBA staying pat on interest rates when they meet on Feb 6. We agree with market players that the risk to the pair is weighted more to the downside. That said, we prefer to sell rallies towards 0.7745/50 level.

USA BAY 02:02 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
[EUR/YEN] fell to 156.59 o/n, just around the timing the [DLR/YEN] hit the bo...
[EUR/YEN] fell to 156.59 o/n, just around the timing the [DLR/YEN] hit the bottom at 120.10. The rebound since then is convincing enough to indicate a bottom for the moment, with [NOK/YEN] buying around Ldn fix having being noted. From the recent volatile sessions, there are several focal levels to the topside like 157.35-40, 45-50, 60-65, 80-85 ahead of the 158.10-15 high. The quick rebound zone to 157.05 and the base of the dip around 156.90-95 could be supportive tdy.

Global-View Research 02:02 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Some reading ahead of the long wait for NFP
US Dollar Rallies Ahead of Payrolls, but Watch Out for a Disappointment

dc CB 01:41 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Then of course you have the fundamental aspect of more people on the planet being able to afford to buy stuff, eat a better and wear better clothes.

We in the Western Hemisphere now burn for our tranportation wims...what is considered by some to be food.
Soy(oil), corn.

Syd 01:39 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
dc CB well I agree with you on that totally and thank you.




AUD/USD loses ground on wider-than-expected Australian December trade gap; eases back as far as 0.7721 as data show A$1.34 billion deficit vs A$1 billion consensus. Last at 0.7728. Market interprets data as clear negative for domestic export sector, says Greg Gibbs, head of FX strategy at ABN Amro; AUD will continue to drift toward 0.7700 though unlikely to breach that level before release of U.S. payrolls. Weaker NZD vs major crosses also weighs on AUD though emerging strength in other high-yield currencies indicates current weakness not part of broad backlash against high-yield currencies

ABHA FXS 01:39 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trade Buy NZD/USD at .6800
Stop is .6748
Target #1 is .7100
Risk is 56 pips
Reward is min. 296 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is min. 5.3
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : good
======
Trade Sell GBP/JPY at 237.80
Stop is 238.26
Target is 235.25
Risk is 55 pips
Reward is min. 246 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is min. 4.5
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: fair
Reward / Risk Ratio : fair
======
Trade Buy USD/JPY at 120.50
Stop is 120.19
Target is 122.37 - 122.50
Risk is 35 pips
Reward is min. 179 pips
Reward / Risk Ratio is min. 5.1
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: good
Reward / Risk Ratio : good
======

USA BAY 01:36 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/USD] traded almost unchanged from a pre-data level of 0.7730 as Australia'...
[AUD/USD] traded almost unchanged from a pre-data level of 0.7730 as Australia's Dec goods and services balance widened to A$1.336 bln S/Adj from a revised A$897 mln in Nov vs market consensus of A$1.0 bln. The reaction by the market has been somewhat muted as the data is not too far off the market's range. Market players cited the US NFP and the RBA meeting as more important than the trade data. Therefore, we will likely see range trading of 0.7710-0.7750 between now and the release of the US NFP at 13.30 GMT. Earlier buying and selling orders will still dictate the range this session

dc CB 01:29 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:03 GMT February 2, 2007

well the speculation a few years back was that if you considered the equity market, the bond market, and the forex market vs the commodity markets...it would only take 1/10 of 1% of the speculative money (my guess) that played-about it the first three markets to cause a significant move in the commodity markets.
I'm sure that a few wanabees in B-School read about that "what-if" and said hey...let's start a fund!...Add to that those smart enough to figure it out for themselves.

If you take a look at the newly published CTFC category...Index Funds...(http://www.cftc.gov/cftc/cftccotreports.htm... scroll down and hit CIT Report) , you'll see the result --even the CTCF recognizes the phenom. Though at present they only cover the AG markets.

of course IMHO

Syd 01:26 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Aussie Dec Trade Not Good News For GDP - AMP

Syd 01:23 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
USD COMMODITIES CHART REUTERS-CRB Index: Could run into trouble near the 100-day MA
CRB had a nice run higher since Mon's low, but now the market could begin to run into trouble near the 100-day MA at 304.70 It would take a close above the 100-day MA to get us thinking about 310.00 support is at 298.27/297.49
4CAST.

RIC fxq 01:22 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
* 01 Feb 07: 23:50(SGA) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - MoF Omi declines FX comments; Trsy Paulson satisfied

More G7 comments ahead of actual G7 meeting. MoF Koji Omi says FX levels should reflect economic fundamentals, and will not comment on currency levels. Earlier, US Treasury Sec Henry Paulson, in BBG interview, says Japan has currency traded in open markets based on fundamentals and satisfied that JPY is set in competitive markets, adding he is looking more carefully at JPY due to news from Europe. He adds that China has embraced currency reforms and talks now are about timing. Adds US getting near bottom of housing correction. On FX, USD/JPY remains in 120-121 range at moment, while EUR/JPY 156.50-157.50, downside risks given weekend and G7 next week factors.WL

... ergo summat est: the past two days of "soul searching" by fx traders have been nothing more than massive mental masturbation in terms of reading significance into Paulson's remarks in front of a bunch of what MTL jp calls "PA's".

NY RP 01:17 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Gold is looking healthy. Time line looks great for atleast 30 to 45 days of super moves north. USD Index is having a difficult time moving higher, above .8550. Sad range and hopefully we get a break either way. Gold was sold off, Oil was sold off, Euro was sold off, CRB was sold off. Turning point?

Gen dk 01:06 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 01:04 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Data Might Indicate "Very Low" GDP - UBS

UBS says Aussie trade deficit blowout "is disappointing, with much of the improvement over the course of 2006 being whittled away in the last couple of months of the year". Deficit rose to A$1.34b vs consensus A$1b. With weak export performance behind blowout, bottomline economic growth in 4Q GDP data on March 7 will likely be "very low", UBS say

Syd 01:03 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:58 why do you think that is , if you dont mind me asking

dc CB 00:58 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:02 GMT February 1, 2007

you know there was a commodity reserarcher here in the US (who has since passed on)...as part of his research he produced a work Trendiness in the Futures Markets... and each year he would update his findings...(Bruce Babcock of Commodity Research Consumer Reports). In almost all the years covered by his research, currencies proved to be the trendest. Me thinks that this has changed.

Syd 00:55 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Dec Data Show Exports A Drag On Growth-ABN

USA BAY 00:49 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
ALBERTSON,

AS long eur/usd is trading above 1.3003, the bias is bullish towards 1.3054 and eventually 1.31. below 1.3003 level is 1.2974.

albertson 00:43 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
...any feelings on pullback of eur/usd, since there was no breakout today...?

Syd 00:32 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Australia Dec Exports -1%, Imports +2%

Australia's seasonally adjusted balance on trade in goods and services widened to a deficit of A$1.34 billion in December from a deficit of A$897 million in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Friday.

The figure is wider than analysts' expectations of a deficit of A$1.0 billion.

Australia recorded a deficit of A$677 million in the year-earlier period.

Syd 00:29 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Australia Dec Trade Deficit A$1.34B Vs A$1.0B Consensus

Syd 00:02 GMT February 2, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 23:49 if it got over 78 would put a SL in there and just see, quite honest not sure about the employment data next week just have a feeling may be down after the seasonal factors are out the way, so best to get some on board and just see

 




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