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Forex Forum Archive for 02/05/2007

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Syd 23:58 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Some analysts think CAD near fair value, could trade sideways for some time; say correction in commodity prices, steady 100bp gap between U.S., Canadian interest rates, softer tone in Canadian economy all factored into CAD. "As long as we find further stability and support in oil prices, and continue to see the Goldilocks economy in the U.S., that should help keep the dollar/Canada pair underpinned under the 1.1900 level, but also above 1.1700," says Ashraf Laidi at censored Markets. But some analysts argue sputtering domestic economy, lagging Canadian yields, possible further pressure on commodities all point to further CAD losses. HSBC Securities Canada's Stewart Hall says, "We're not a dynamic growth story, we're not a high-yielding currency, there's much more interesting high-yield stories to be found out in the global arena."

Syd 23:55 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Support for UK PM Blair's Labour Party holds steady despite much-publicized cash-for-honors scandal; almost half of voters, however, think Blair should resign for the national good, shows survey for The Times newspaper. Labour has support of 33% of respondents, 3 points behind Conservatives; Labour's support is +1 percentage point from similar poll a month ago. Blair's office confirmed last week he'd been questioned for 2nd time by police investigating allegations that honors - including knighthoods, seats in House of Lords - were given to individuals who loaned money to Labour Party. Police questioned Blair as witness, rather than suspect, but scandal has tarnished premiership; several key Blair aides have also been quizzed. Scandal has increased pressure on Blair, who has said he'll step down by September after 10 years in office; 49% of respondents say he should resign now

USA BAY 23:54 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
FW CS,

Do you have any idea the level for eur/jpy today/tom. I feel it may reach below 154.80. Thanks

USA BAY 23:35 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
FW CS,

USD/JPY is highly manipulated and as you say yen does have room on the upside, and I feel we may see usd/yen trading below 119.90 today or tomorrow and maybe back to 117 area soon.

Wien censored 23:31 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Monday's trade of EUR/USD made 1.2870/80 zone possible again.
I am looking for higher levels than market at the moment (1.2950 or a bit higher) to sell here.

GL GT

FW CS 23:29 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Hey there Oil Man. There is a record net Yen short on IMM so that is not condusive to further Yen depreciation. Usually before G7 officials make their intentions clear and it is rarely a surprise. IF $/Yen sells off hard before this weekend than there can be a buy the rumor/sell the fact next Monday. But for the next month or so I am looking for more Yen strength as the majority of specs seem to be short Yen against everything

NYC Al 23:29 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Evening All!, any thoughts on eur/usd starting it's move UP
held up pretty good today?

FW CS 23:26 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay
And I knew that you were just quoting someone else but thanks for the info certainly. Alright what is your opinion on Yen? I personally think the Yen is not a sell with the record spec shorts and all the carry trade. IF even say like 2% of any Yen carry trades unwind that would cause a nice bout of Yen strength and in fact am looking for decent donwised in $/Yen to maybe 117 area and like 152 area for Euro/Yen. Most of the time I trade only Euro but this time I think Yen has more upside against the $ for those reasons mentioned above.

Cannes Oil man 23:25 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Hello CS,

EVen though like i previously told you, i see this $/Y move down, but quite skeptic on the G7 consensus..Everyone seeing it go down AFTER G7 , (before i guess the move could keep going) makes me want to look other way.

Never liked consensus's , will see.

gl gt

USA BAY 23:24 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
FW CS,

No problem CS. I am cool. GT/GL

FW CS 23:22 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay
Like I said no knock against you. There is a Head and shoulders type high on the Daily so that part is useful.

USA BAY 23:18 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
FW CS,

Reas for info, take it if it is useful discard it if it is rubbish. Just doing my part of sharing with fellow members.

FW CS 22:54 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY Nears Neck Line With Volatility Online

Monday, 05 February 2007 19:12:13 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst


In a little under a month, as the pair has pushed to relative historical highs...
------------------------------------------------------
No knock against you USA Bay but I wonder how long some of these so called analysts have been in the markets 122 isn't even anywhere remotely close to its ($/Yen) historical highs -- its closer to its long term average.

Syd 22:43 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Australian Opinion Poll Shows Govt Well Behind

Australia's governing Coalition well behind opposition Labor Party in voter opinion Newspoll published in The Australian newspaper today. Most worryingly for Coalition will be support on primary vote for Labor at 47%, up from 44% previously, well up from 38% support for Coalition, down from 39%. Political insiders know key threshold level on primary vote needed to win government is 43%, so poll suggests Coalition needs to make up plenty of ground. Two-party preferred support in poll of 56% for Labor, 44% for Coalition just underscores work needed. General election likely around October though APEC leaders meeting scheduled in Australia for September could force August election, says ABC TV. PM John Howard said of Newspoll result "he has been here before," in 2001 and 2004; says economic prosperity will still be main issue at election.

ABHA FXS 21:37 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Upper trendline breached on GBPUSD @ 1.9637 on 240 minute timeframe
Summary...
Trendline point 1: high at 2007.01.31 00:00 (1.9636)
Trendline point 2: high at 2007.01.30 08:00 (1.9697)
First candle above line: 1.9637 - 2007.01.31 20:00
Projected profit: 1.9745
Details:
1. Upper trendline was drawn by the indicator between the high of the bar at
2007.01.31 00:00( price level of 1.9636) and the high of the bar at 2007.01.30
08:00( price level of 1.9697)
2. The indicator has detected a qualified breach of that trendline by a candle
(bar) opening at a price of 1.9637, above the trendline at 2007.01.31 20:00,
after a cross of the trendline by a previous candle (bar).

USA BAY 21:00 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY Nears Neck Line With Volatility Online

Monday, 05 February 2007 19:12:13 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst


In a little under a month, as the pair has pushed to relative historical highs, the USDJPY has carved out a promising head-and-shoulders formation. Though the top of the right shoulder is 50 points below the left's pivot high, the neckline is too clear to be ignored. With at least three tests on the 120.05/20 area, support is clearly established. Adding significance to the level, the 50% fib of the 117.98-122.21 bear wave cuts the zone at 120.10, which consequently held up the swing low on Thursday to the pip. Whether the formation will progress into a break or mark yet another bounce for range formation is still questionable. However, with a lot of speculation surrounding the yen in advance of the G7 meeting, a direction may be chosen relatively soon. A clear close below 120 could trigger momentum with stops and limit triggers, but should be watched closely because of the dominate carry status of the pair. Alternatively, a move higher would be harder to judge with a continuation, though a move beyond the shoulder at 121.38 would clearly end the pattern.

Tallinn viies 20:37 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
after nyc close sellers from 1,2960-65 would move their orders lower I think. 1,2930-35 could be area were new selling interest may be. therefore moving stops to 1,2974 after nyc close isnt too stupid idea. target at 1,2870-75- gl

pd cumino 20:18 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
NY Bank Prop Trader 20:12 GMT February 5, 2007
Personally hope you are right, especially regard to that 155.25

NY Bank Prop Trader 20:12 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
As for EUR/JPY, I would anticipate the cross finding a range for the next few days with a downward sloping axis. I am thinking we see EUR.JPY rally to 155.80-90 in Asia.... and then begin to sell off again in mid europe... possible to a new low just under 155.25, and then sub 155 in early NY trading. I do not however like being short EUR/JPY at current levels. There are a few systmatic fund names selling EUR/USD on a ny rally over 30, but come NY close that selling pressure will pass and I thikn you see a EUR rally vs several currencies.

Syd 20:12 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Yen worries luxury companies even more than weak dollar
The yen is now trading near all-time lows — ¥157 to the euro, or $1.28— and many foreign exchange experts do not expect it to strengthen significantly this year.

"As long as the dollar stays at $1.30 to the euro, we can deal with that," said Ermenegildo Zegna, the co-chief executive of the high-end Italian menswear company that bears his name. "The yen has already passed our benchmark of ¥150 to the euro and, at the current level, it's becoming a headache and a problem."

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/05/news/Rdollar.php

CT PT 19:33 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Anyone has any suggestion for initiation of fresh position in EUR/JPY?

USA BAY 19:17 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX

DR Q,

What is your bias for gbp/jpy at this point. THANKS

jkt-aye 18:54 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
i have magnetic price level for :

eurusd 1.2990 (H1)
usdjpy 119.75 (daily), 120.95 (30M)
gbpusd 1.9620 (15M), 1.9675 (30M)
usdchf 1.2450 (H1)

happy hunting

NYC NYC 18:18 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Amazing the way this market just dies off in the afternoon sometimes. Tells you whether the market is making money and I do not mean those here, who always give the appearance of making money.

Van jv 17:23 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
US Buddet
about 270 Bil for wars
1% of it for new energy initiatives

NY PT 17:17 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Contrarian trade idea:
Buy cable @ 1.9590-1.610, SL 1.9480; TP1 1.9850; TP2 2.0000
FA: 1.ensuing weakening of USD strength inspite of relatively strong economic data (in near future, economy will show signs of fatigue, as commodities market stabilises @ current level)
2. possible surprise from BOE & ECB as well, in the form of rate hikes this meetings(UK economy still growing decently w/ inflation rate @ a level far uncomfortable for BOE; more M & A related inflows)
3. minimal intervention from G7 in the end on yen debate---hence, imminent rallies in GBP/EUR crosses
4. political turmoil in Japan will further weaken yen (a boon for pesent administration)
5. probably USD @ the final leg of its rally in near term (impending correction in US markets after much run up)
TA:
1. GBP/USD forming higher bases after each fall @ important fibo levels since early Jan low
2. although the pair is facing resistance around 19750 range, but downside force is weakening w/ time
3. final upward push will come from FAs as outlined above....
More later,

Bahrain Bahrain1 17:08 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 13:54 GMT February 5, 2007
Long euro at 1.2931 stop at 1.2910 p/t at 1.2975. GL

closed at b/e.....GL to u all.

Bahrain Bahrain1 17:08 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 13:54 GMT February 5, 2007
Long euro at 1.2931 stop at 1.2910 p/t at 1.2975. GL

closed at b/e.....GL to u all.

hong kong seek 16:40 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
DR Q , may i kindly know yr view on gold ? many good trades to u

Hong Kong Qindex 16:20 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The upside targeting point is 1.9633 and the downside targeting point is 1.9517 if [1.19573] fails to hold again.

Gen dk 16:16 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY RP 16:06 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
$680 and then new highs over $740.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:05 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 16:02 GMT - Thank you for your kind words. GBP/USD : The movement of EUR/GBP is affecting its current direction.

HK Kevin 16:02 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, good call on USD/JPY at 120.29, 100% right.
I will be kick out by the market if Cable trades above 1.9625.

manchester 16:01 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
RP, been holding gold for a couple of weeks but keeps breaking at 660 area. what price are you looking for

Hong Kong Qindex 15:51 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : the two upside targeting points are 236.37 and 236.69.

UK Alex 15:50 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 15:37 GMT February 5, 2007
Yes, it's all politics, I agree. I just think the more dissenters there are (on either side of the Atlantic), the more risky the carry trade becomes.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:48 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market has been stablized when it is able to trade above [1.9573].

ldn jas 15:41 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 15:37 GMT February 5, 2007
Yes that is what I thought you meant - just wanted to clarify that you had meant cable may drop further before any buying power comes in

Hong Kong Qindex 15:39 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The next two downside targeting points are 234.20 and 234.97.

Athens MK 15:37 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 15:30 GMT February 5, 2007

What I mean is when price action is at the 1.9510-1.9480 area then a buy bias comes into play...What level to buy etc... remains to be seen but that is where I would start to look... tonight or tomorrow I should have a better view...

RIC fxq 15:37 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:13 GMT

bear in mind this is from the mouth of John Dingell (D-Mich) and has everything to do with pacifying his constituents (auto workers and auto related union members) and has nothing to do with US policy as determined at a higher level than his. no more influential than Charlie Schumer (D-NY) who rants about China at every photo op for similar constituency reasons.

HK Kevin 15:34 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Cable 2nd short 1.9590.

ldn jas 15:30 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 15:24 GMT February 5, 2007
Do you mean buy scenario once 19480 visited ?

NY RP 15:26 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Gold is hanging in there. It is amazing to see how many Gold ETFs are being launched. Sure looks like decent support to me. The Yen is a BIG topic of late. All verbal USD/JPY on the way up and now voices are making way to walk it down. Yen is and has always been a challenging currency to trade. Better off with GOLD ad waiting for the USD index to lead the way for the next move. Hopefully lower. GL

Athens MK 15:24 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: From what I heard there are a few system traders camped out at 1.9595-1.9605 ready to dump some cable for the target of 1.949+ area... Once that happens we expect another buy scenario to occur....

Madrid mm 15:23 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
...and the rest of the world for that matter 8-)

Madrid mm 15:21 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:13 GMT February 5, 2007

are they the only one ? LOL 8-)

I wonder how the Japanese feel about China !!!!

UK Alex 15:13 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Japan is currency cheat, claims US

UK Alex 15:10 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
And don't forget another currency which is popular with the carry trade community...

SNB board member-designate Thomas Jordan said: “The weaker the CHF gets, the higher the risks investors take when they engage in new carry trades … a sudden appreciation of the franc would lead to heavy losses for those who are short in the franc or have sold it in futures … I am not sure whether all the market participants in this business are always aware of the risk”.

UK Alex 15:06 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 14:51 GMT February 5, 2007
The fall in the yen may pressure the Bank of Japan to hike rates especially if Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is to “use this week's meeting of G7 finance ministers to accuse Tokyo of fixing the exchange rate of the yen.” as members of Congress are urging.

HK Kevin 15:03 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Entered 1st short AUD position at 7751 for a weekly trade.

London JBS 15:00 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Jan ISM non-manufacturing 59.0 vs 57.0 expect and vs revised 56.7 in Dec

HK Kevin 14:58 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Closed my short USD/JPY from 121.02 at 120.42. Still keep the short EUR/JPY. Entered small short Cable at 1.9568. RIC fxq 14:51 GMT, who says Japan in a stagnant or recessionary economy?

London JBS 14:56 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:31 GMT February 5, 2007
What is the possibility for BOJ to raise interest rate under G7 pressure?
______

BOJ hike sould be dependent on strength of 4Q GDP to be released Feb 15. A weak number would make any hike very difficult to justify. Europe pressure (cant see US or G7) may prompt Finance Minister Omi to refrain from calling for economic support via monetary policy as he did last meeting.

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:53 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Italy PM Prodi says Eurozone must act together on currency rates.

NY Bank Prop Trader 14:52 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
BOJ wanted to raise rates in January. The politicians prevented that. If the politicians allow the BOJ to raise rates in FEB (after the G-7), I think they will. Keep in mind data tends to turn a bit sour in Japan after March, so this is essentially Japan's last chance to hike before fiscal year end and in front of elections this summer. Look for a BOJ hike in FEB post G-7 as officials give the BOJ the greenlight. But from there, you might well see the BOJ on hold till next fall.

RIC fxq 14:51 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:31 GMT

zero! until the japanese economic data improves BoJ will not raise rates to satisfy EU,US or anyone else. why would any cb raise rates in a stagnant or recessionary economy?

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:47 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Italy PM Prodi says yen weakness is a "serious problem", in part because the dollar is also weak. (Reuters)

London JBS 14:47 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
ITALY PM PRODI SAYS YEN WEAKNESS IS A "SERIOUS PROBLEM," ALSO BECAUSE OF DOLLAR WEAKNESS

Pre G7 pressure intensifies.

Athens MK 14:38 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Potential intraday call is for 1.9563 sell for a limit at 1.9493.....

GLGT

Hong Kong Qindex 14:32 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:23 GMT February 5, 2007
USD/JPY : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 120.29 // 120.46*.

HK Kevin 14:31 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
What is the possibility for BOJ to raise interest rate under G7 pressure?

London JBS 14:21 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
EUROGROUP'S JUNCKER SAYS G7 "WILL CERTAINLY DISCUSS THE YEN SITUATION" IN ESSEN

EUROGROUP'S JUNCKER SAYS TOO SOON TO SAY IF YEN WILL BE INCLUDED IN G7 STATEMENT

ABHA FXS 14:08 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd short target 1.9456
eurusd short target 1.2822

Gen dk 14:07 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:54 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Long euro at 1.2931 stop at 1.2910 p/t at 1.2975. GL

BEIRUT MK 13:39 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
long eurusd at 1.2930 target 1.31+

Gen dk 13:22 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY Bank Prop Trader 13:17 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Good morning one, good morning all.... the question remains how far Sterling Yen will fall. We fight the fights, that we can win, so let the speculaten begin. I tell you this, I tell you strong, betting on the YEN will not be wrong. To put it on, in the right zone is the trick. Listen up here, stay tuned, and we'll wait for the NY afternoon USD rally pick.

Plovidv Gotin 13:01 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 12:20 GMT February 5, 2007
Plovidv Gotin 10:01 GMT - GBP/USD : In the mean time it is testing the support of 1.9553 // 1.9575. Anyway We have to see how the market reacts at 1.9517*.
You r absolutely right about 1.9517.Thanx.

ABHA FXS 12:53 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Lower trendline breached on GBPUSD @ 1.9569 on 240 minute timeframe
Summary
Trendline point 1: low at 2007.02.02 12:00 (1.9632)
Trendline point 2: low at 2007.02.01 04:00 (1.9622)
First candle below line: 1.9569 - 2007.02.05 12:00
Projected profit: 1.9456

ABHA FXS 12:53 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Lower trendline breached on EURAUD @ 1.6694 on 240 minute timeframe
Summary
Trendline point 1: low at 2007.02.02 16:00 (1.6713)
Trendline point 2: low at 2007.01.29 04:00 (1.6660)
First candle below line: 1.6694 - 2007.02.05 12:00
Projected profit: 1.6536

CT Cris 12:33 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 12:18 GMT February 5, 2007
CT Cris 11:41 GMT February 5, 2007
CT Cris 06:34 GMT February 5, 2007
Any chance of a spike up to higher entry before more down Cris ?

======
sure , to give more momentum to decline more.

Zuriich LTH 12:29 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   

USD may exercise weekly highs during the next 2HRS

Hong Kong Qindex 12:20 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Plovidv Gotin 10:01 GMT - GBP/USD : In the mean time it is testing the support of 1.9553 // 1.9575. Anyway We have to see how the market reacts at 1.9517*.

ldn jas 12:18 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:41 GMT February 5, 2007
CT Cris 06:34 GMT February 5, 2007
Any chance of a spike up to higher entry before more down Cris ?

Global-View Research 11:52 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Worth a read:

Mellon FX Daily

CT Cris 11:44 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 06:55 GMT February 5, 2007
CT CRIS,

Any idea on NZD/USD. Thanks
=====
still in downtrend.....sell at higher price.

CT Cris 11:41 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:34 GMT February 5, 2007
gbp.usd short around 19640 tp 19600.
==========
still in downtrend sell between 19600-19590 tp 19550-40.

Athens MK 11:22 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: we had from this morning a sell bias from 1.9654 call with a main target of 1.9574 which was hit pretty quick... Sorry for the late call but I was out of the office...

Our next call will be to buy but that might come tomorrow or the day after..... We just don't know the level yet but could be around the 1.9515 level to 1.9483...

Syd 11:07 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--A letter bomb has exploded in central London, Sky News television reported Monday, citing "Sky sources."

Sky said one female employee was injured in the blast, which happened at around 0945 GMT in Victoria Street, which runs from Parliament Square to the London Victoria rail terminus.

Contacted by Dow Jones Newswires, the Metropolitan Police wouldn't confirm there had been an explosion, but said they had been called to a report of a suspicious package at a business address, and that explosives officers are on the scene.

Syd 10:59 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Letter Bomb Explodes In London One Injured - Sky TV

St. Annaland Bob 10:53 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
nyc brc 10:47 GMT February 5, 2007
St. Annaland Bob 10:42 GMT February 5, 2007
just out of curiosity , where is St Annaland Bob?



nyc brc, the link below will show you.

http://maps.google.com/maps?ie=UTF8&om=1&z=17&ll=51.53391,4.227365&spn=0.006113,0.013475&t=h

nyc brc 10:47 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:42 GMT February 5, 2007
just out of curiosity , where is St Annaland Bob?

St. Annaland Bob 10:42 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
happy day!!!

for today (until NY session ends), the following are the play here:

EUR/USD: BUY 1.2910/20 with s/l below 1.2895 for 1.2975
USD/JPY: SELL 120.80/121.00 s/l above 121.10 for 120.25

happy trades

London Paul de Groot 10:32 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
ranges valid until arrival of break out:

EURUSD: 12850<>13090
USDJPY: 11980<>12220
EURJPY: 15540<>15860
USDCHF: 12335<>12560
USDCAD: 11690<>11880
EURCHF: 16120<>16260
GBPUSD: 19500<>19800
XAUUSD: 63000<>67500
XAGUSD: 129000<>139500

good trades

ldn jas 10:07 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT February 5, 2007
Thanks Qindex

Syd 10:06 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
French Farm Min Urges Vigilance, Not Panic, On Bird Flu Risk
PARIS (AP)--France's agriculture minister Monday urged "very strong vigilance" - but no panic - in the face of bird-flu outbreaks in the U.K. and Hungary. The French national food safety agency was to issue an assessment Monday afternoon of the risks that the H5N1 bird flu virus could again infect France, Europe's largest poultry producer. France was hit a year ago by the deadly virus at a turkey farm in the southeast. Agriculture Minister Dominique Bussereau ordered the assessment over the weekend, after the U.K. announced that a major turkey farm had been infected with H5N1. The Hungarian outbreak last month was the first known case of the strain within the European Union since August 2006.
Monday, Bussereau said France should adopt "very strong vigilance but no panic" in response. "We should not dramatize the situation but we must tell the truth," he said on RTL radio. Bussereau expressed concern that it had taken a full day for France to be officially informed of the U.K. outbreak, but didn't explain what caused the delay.

E.U. food and animal health experts are to discuss the outbreak Tuesday.


Auckland trotter 10:05 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
There is a range setting in on the 4hr 20day chart. Take the pips where you see them for now for the EUR/USD short term. But have some up pressure for now to around 1.2964 on the chart.

Will see what happens at this level.

Plovidv Gotin 10:01 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT February 5, 2007
GBP/USD : The first target is 1.9575.

And the last(daily)....1.9435?TIA.

Bahrain BAH1 09:55 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
UK January CIPS services index 59.2 from December's 60.6 and against forecasts for 60.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:44 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The first target is 1.9575.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:40 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : It is not good when it is trading below 156.10. It will head for 154.89*.

Syd 09:40 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
The TimesFebruary 05, 2007
Poultry farmers face export ban as vets warn threat is here to stay

Britain faces the loss of £370 million in export trade in meat and live birds after the arrival of the avian flu virus in the poultry industry
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1329365.ece

Tallinn viies 09:04 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
sellers were still there at 1,2965/70 where they were late NYC and early Asian time.
wouldnt be suprised if we have seen the daily high on euro for today. target still 1,2895/00

stokholm se 09:02 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
signal is for USDJPY

stokholm se 09:00 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Time: 09.58am CET


SELL

Dealing rate: 120.68

LOT: 1

TP: 35
Stop: 68

OR/AND

Trailling : After taking 50 pips profit is 25
[email protected]

Bahrain BAH1 09:00 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Eurozone January PMI services index 57.9 from 57.2 in December and against forecasts for 56.7.

Bahrain BAH1 08:55 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
German Jan. PMI services 58.3 fm Dec. 57.6 and against forecasts for 57.1.

Auckland trotter 08:54 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
la fx 07:39 GMT February 5, 2007
We have heard about such propositions and scams on the forum before.

Jay - where is your censorship.

Do we have to tell these self promoting intruders ourselves to (censored by you) ……!

Bahrain BAH1 08:54 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
French January PMI manuf. 58.8 fm Dec.'s 57.6 and ag forecasts for 57.2

Hong Kong Qindex 08:53 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : It is not good when the market is trading below 93.54. It has a chance to hit 92.94*.

Bahrain BAH1 08:46 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Good morning frnds...........

Bahrain BAH1 08:45 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
talian January PMI services 55.4 from December's 55.0 and against forecasts for 54.8.

Syd 08:43 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
MADRID (AP)--A bomb detonated at a rail station outside the Spanish Basque city of Bilbao early Monday, causing serious damage and igniting a fire, Basque police said. No one was injured.

The device exploded in Barakaldo, a town on the outskirts of Bilbao, Basque regional police said.



Syd 08:41 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Speculators Extend JPY Shorts Even More
Speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange preserved their largely USD neutral position in the week to Jan. 30. But they have extended their net short JPY position even more to $17.8B from $16.9B the week before, says ABN Amro. This is a new record high, accounting for 22% of the $82.3B of aggregate speculative trades. "It is rare to see so much risk focused in one currency," the bank says.

Gen dk 08:41 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 07:48 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
[EUR/USD] has continued to slide in the wake of Friday's job data mix, that ...
[EUR/USD] has continued to slide in the wake of Friday's job data mix, that has players firmly focused upon the healthy revisions, and not the rather disappointing headline. European services PMI's are the calendar highlight from 8.15GMT today, and a slight moderation is forecast for January to take the EU barometer to 56.8 from a prior 57.2. Given the current softer trend, such direction should facilitate some more speculative pressure on the headline pair, although sellers again face the ever present sovereign bidding into 1.2900, and apparently even larger size around 1.2850. Profit taking sales of Eur/Yen have made the bulk of flows during Asia, again influenced by more speculation that G7 will address the weak Yen.

USA BAY 07:48 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
[EUR/YEN] selling dominated Yen focused flows in Asia with heightened...
[EUR/YEN] selling dominated Yen focused flows in Asia with heightened concerns over the G7 meeting, and a possible refernce to the weaker Yen in the statement, behind profit taking demand. That said, such sentiment is hardly reflected in data, despite talk profit taking by specs built in the tail end of last week. Rather IMM data reveals yet another record level of IMM Yen shorts, now 173k to Jan 30th, from a prior 164k. Perhaps though this will see a even larger bid for the Yen this week, the short term crowd also likely to be influenced by the turn in technical signals that has seen stops loss selling from funds following the break under the 20 day m.a at 156.56. Any mass exit from risk probably require a break of 120.00 in Usd/Yen though, and according to flow reports, it is bids not stops that dominant order books between 120.50-00.

Tallinn viies 07:45 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
good morning,
strange situation on euro dollar charts right now,
weekly shows signs of bottom building and daily charts show that pressure to test last week low and under grows.
would like to trade short side as long as 1,3000 not touched.
we will see test of 1,2895/00 today.

Auckland trotter 07:45 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
london 07:18 GMT February 5, 2007
It would be more useful for the forum that you give your reasons for a trade and target figures.

I am sure we would all like to learn from your insights, as after all I gather this is a forum to share information and understanding to improve our trading.

At the end of the day, no one is right or wrong until the market says otherwise, and that is given the time scale of the trade posted.

la fx 07:39 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
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Auckland trotter 07:31 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
I have the EUR/USD up for this session from the weekly M2 pivot of 1.2930.

Brought at 1.2939, and will see what happens with the open of the UK market.

Dubai AA 07:29 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
london 07:18 GMT February 5, 2007
lol....its a better answer than the one you will get from the Arab.

---------------------------------------------------------
Plse show a bit respect...you aren't alone in this forum.

Bris Ron 07:23 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
london 07:18 GMT February 5, 2007

Pretty disgusting post that is ......

USA BAY 07:20 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
London,

Let me be the judge of that, focus on your trades.

USA BAY 07:16 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
LONDON,

If you can reply properly, do it otherwise don't waste the space in the forum.

london 07:14 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 06:55 GMT February 5, 2007
yes..before it was goes, it will go down...but before it goes down it will go sideways...

USA BAY 06:55 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Any idea on NZD/USD. Thanks

CT Cris 06:34 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd short around 19640 tp 19600.

Syd 05:13 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Japan is currency cheat, claims US

Japan has become the latest scapegoat for protectionist rhetoric in Washington, as Congress urges Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson to use this week's meeting of G7 finance ministers to accuse Tokyo of fixing the exchange rate of the yen.LINK

Syd 05:09 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Treasury debt is twice Chancellor's 'sustainable' figure, says think-tank
Gordon Brown has hidden liabilities worth more than £500bn, and the true size of the public debt is up to 87 per cent of GDP, more than twice the Treasury's 'sustainable' limit, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
Using the government's calculations for the cost of public sector pensions, private finance initiative schemes, and Network Rail's debt, which the Treasury guarantees, the think-tank has reached a total figure of more than £1,100bn - twice what the Treasury admits to.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,,2005183,00.html

Syd 04:59 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: US Hard Landing Scenario "In Tatters" - Macq

With one exception, U.S. data show economy has bounced back, says Macquarie; "the weak patch after the middle of 2006 only lasted for a few months." January ISM manufacturing index came in weakly but this was because sector was just responding to earlier slowing in demand, cutting inventory to deal with falling order backlogs. GDP, payrolls more important and these show growth picked up in late 2006; "forecasts of a hard landing by now are in tatters." Nothing mysterious in rebound in U.S. economy; reflects falling market rates, strong equity markets and recent sharp fall in oil, with easier financial conditions followed by faster economic growth. Return to normal (cooler) weather conditions may mean slightly softer growth, it adds, "but there is no reason to expect a sudden slump."

Miami OMIL (/;-> 04:53 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd pair: Key resistance 2970-80 and 2990-3000 with main resistance at 3070-80 for now. Support 2940-50 and 2860-70 await. Indicators are bearish but reaching the O/S area. Shorts taken around the 2940-50 area with stops on the first key resistance (2970-80). Moving stops to entry point as soon as the 2900-10 area is tested. Looking for what the market gives. Position will run and every 40 pips stops will be moved. This of course is one way to get in others are valid as well IMHO. Peace and GT

USA BAY 04:53 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Thanks Dr Q. Have a profitable week.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:47 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 03:23 GMT - EUR/AUD : When the market is trading above 1.6742 I am bias on the upside and the short term target is 1.6826.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:44 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
ldn jas 02:52 GMT - GBP/USD : I can have a better idea when the market is trading below 1.9633. Anyway the market is under pressure when it is trading below [1.9662].

Sydney ACC 04:43 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
The temperature is rising fast over interest rates.

Only eight economists out of 50 polled by Reuters expect a rise in UK interest rates. So you have been warned. Only one expected a rise last month. And the markets are pricing in two rises by June; so if the MPC did raise now then it could hardly be accused of springing a surprise.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/02/05/ccom05.xml

ABHA FXS 04:38 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Lower trendline breached on EURGBP @ 0.6583 on 240 minute timeframe
Summary
Trendline point 1: low at 2007.02.02 16:00 (0.6584)
Trendline point 2: low at 2007.01.30 08:00 (0.6578)
First candle below line: 0.6583 - 2007.02.05 04:00
Projected profit: 0.6522

ABHA FXS 04:38 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Lower trendline breached on EURUSD @ 1.2937 on 240 minute timeframe
Summary
Trendline point 1: low at 2007.02.02 16:00 (1.2949)
Trendline point 2: low at 2007.01.31 08:00 (1.2925)
First candle below line: 1.2937 - 2007.02.05 04:00
Projected profit: 1.2822

Syd 04:27 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Australia's PM Plans 0430 GMT Briefing

Syd 04:14 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Costello: FIRB Will Scrutinize Qantas Bid
Australia's Costello: Will Examine National Interest Issues
Costello: Won't Allow Qantas To Be Majority Foreign Owned

USA BAY 04:03 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Your earlier call on buy eur/aud at 1.63 area, and now sell at 1.6720, do you expect it do go down to 1.63 area. thanks

ABHA FXS 03:50 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
EURAUD..NOW...1.6720
TRAND WAS DOWN
SELL AT 1.6720
STOP 1.6766
TAKE PROFIT 1.6636 RISK/REWARD RATIO 6.7
TRADE OK

USA BAY 03:23 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
DR Q,


When you have the time, could you please comment on where eur/aud and aud/jpy heading. thanks

u 111 03:01 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
anybody having problems w n225 cfd?

ldn jas 02:52 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 01:23 GMT February 5, 2007
What are expected lower levels for gbp/usd please Qindex ? Thanks

Syd 01:45 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY falls sharply as U.S. hedge funds, European securities firms unwind long positions due to G7 concerns, say senior customer dealers at major Japan banks. One tips first support 156.25, then 156.00 in Asia vs last 156.50 on EBS. USD/JPY also falls, may target 120.25 in Asia vs last 120.77 on EBS. "Some players who bought the dollar after the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls last week are probably unwinding positions, trying to hit stop-loss sell orders," one says.

NYC Al 01:26 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
London, good thinking, and I like the trade, I'm in !

Hong Kong Qindex 01:23 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 120.29 // 120.46*.

London C 01:22 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
No Al ....just pointing out the the risk /reward ratio is out of wack on that trade ... nobody will risk 800 pips to make 200 ....and if your expecting it to drop down 800 pips you might aswell join the ride down and risk 200 pips .

Philadelphia Caba 01:20 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
"Investors haven't entered markets yet, but because of G7 this weekend, it may be difficult to sell the yen actively this week."
[Dow Jones] EUR/JPY falls sharply as U.S. hedge funds, European securities firms unwind long positions due to G7 concerns, say senior customer dealers at major Japan banks.

NYC AL 01:13 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
London, are you basing the trade of AUD on data that just came out??

Syd 01:06 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
ch MAXC hi, RBA on hold this weeks data if continue to be on the soft side will see Aussie fall back to 76 area initially, employment Thursday would wait for a pull back further before considering taking a long , when aussie fall tends to do so fast
Australia building approvals have been trending down for past year and 1.9% on-month fall reaffirms direction, says ANZ senior economist Tony Pearson; drop confirms that signs of a rebound in building approvals in late 2006 were a "false dawn." ANZ says demographic effects and undersupply will spur rebound in approvals by late-2007, boosted by a projected November rate cut.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:56 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Anything below 1.2932* is not good.

London C 00:53 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 00:40 GMT February 4, 2007
FOR NEXT WEEK ...05 FEB // 09 FEB 07
AUDUSD..
LONG 0.7725 STOP 0.6930 TARGET 0.7925
REWARD +200 PIPS

....thats an 800 pip stop there mate.
why not just go short with a 200 stop?

CH Maxc 00:44 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Ciao Syd, please what do you think about aud/$?

Syd 00:32 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Australian Dec Residential Bldg Approvals -1.9% On Mo
Australian Dec Pvt-Sector House Approvals -2.3% On Mo
Australian Dec Value Of Bldg Approvals +2.0% On Mo

Syd 00:30 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
Australian Dec Retail Sales +0.3% Vs +0.4% Consensus
ANZ Australia Newspaper Job Ads Fell 1.2% In Jan Vs Dec

NYC Al 00:02 GMT February 5, 2007 Reply   
sorry !!!

 




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