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Forex Forum Archive for 02/09/2007

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Auckland peat 23:56 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
what was weekly close for CHF/JPY

NYC 23:17 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Norway- why would you sell $/jpy right before the weekend G7 when it is obvious that the jpy will not be cited in the communique. If you want to be short usd/jpy, why not wait until Sunday evening to sell?

Norway e.s 21:52 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Smal short usd/jpy 121,67 stopp 122,7 Nice wecend to al !

dc CB 21:32 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:15 GMT February 9, 2007
dc CB 16:44 GMT February 9, 2007

Actually...Attica :)

little slow this time of day.

dc CB 21:27 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:15 GMT February 9, 2007
dc CB 16:44 GMT February 9, 2007

Oswego, the campus was right on the shore Lake Ontario. The weather reports here have been mentioning it in the past couple of days...as in...."you may think it's cold here in Washington but at least we don't have 8 feet of snow, like Oswego"

Halifax CB 21:15 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 16:44 GMT February 9, 2007

an aside. the town in upstate NY where I spent my freshman year has received 8 feet of snow in the last week and it's still snowing. not sure anyone there buys the global warming scenario.


Would that be Ithaca or Attica :)

Re the GW bit; if it's not evidence of warming then it's evidence of increasing variability - they'll get you either way on this one....One of the joys of chaotic systems is you can find just about any pattern you want, if one looks hard enough....

FW CS 20:27 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Well the market is already pretty heavily short Yen against everything so I feel the Yen has evertyhing to gain and nothing to lose from this G7. IN other words not a good idea to be short Yen going into the weekend.

New York Bank Prop Trader 19:45 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Yes, probably, at least until Japanese GDP. Fed speakers are hawkish, ECB is hawkish, BOJ is dovish.

Mix in the good data in the US and Europe and the sub par data in Japan.

Mix the 'all time high' aspect in EUR/JPY and the fact that there is really nothing to stand in its way.

Sure the G-7 can knock it down ... but it will come racing back until Japan begins tightening at a more reliable pace.

Come March, after BOJ hikes late Feb (yes I think they hike) then we can start to see YEN strengthen ahead of fiscal year end in Japan.

NY PT 19:06 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Yen under pressure as G7 meeting starts......

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6d482eb0-b826-11db-ae51-0000779e2340.html

NY PT 18:57 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
NY Bank PT,
That's very funny...
so you think, there is further upside left in eur/jpy; usd/jpy etc...crosses before they fall?...

Livingston nh 18:46 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
JHON - yeah G-7 decided that BoJ should be dissolved and the yen banned from forex trading after March 1

Ormond beach, fl ag 18:45 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
BPT, that was very funny. Thanks for the laugh! GL, GT

CA Jhon 18:43 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Anyone knows about G7 meeting results and JPY?

New York Bank Prop Trader 18:39 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Twas the night before G-7, when all through Germany
Not a creature was punting, not even a a junkee.

The finance ministers arrived, and arrived with care
In hopes of an agreement on a major YEN pare

The traders awaited, all snug in their beds
While visions of profits danced in their heads

When out of the blue came European angry YEN words
Calling the Japanese, non free market terds

They spoke and they spoke, but reached no goal
So the market did what they had to, and put the Yen in a hole

On Euro and on Kiwi and on Canada too,
Up they went verse YEN on cheap funding an you

The market began betting for the very first time,
For the Yen to slide more and for Europe to scream crime

And when it finally happened, nobody was on board,
Because thats FX, and way to many have scored.

The message I give, is one that repeats
Its March not Feb, that the YEN moves its feet.

Have a great weekend

GVI Jay 18:12 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
FX Briefing 9 February 2007 (BHF Bank)
Highlights
• ECB signals interest rate hike in March to 3.75%, further outlook remains open
• M3 growth distorted by foreign transactions, credit expansion slowing down
• Japanese government intervention to support yen not a serious option...
See full report

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:11 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Ohio 17:58 GMT February 9, 2007
LOL I can't tell you what the eur/usd pair has done to me many times (and they are not good but once in a while the sun shines on a dogs a*s). These moves are probably the market hunkering down for the weekend and squaring away the shorts IMHO. Peace and GT

Ohio 17:58 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL...look what you did to eur/usd in just seconds...good call...Longs you owe him

Miami OMIL (/;-> 17:49 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd pair: After the test of the main resistance (3045-55) the key support 3000-2990 was taken out with the next support awaiting around the 2990-80 for now. Any longs taken for pip raiding purposes will be exited at around 3pm eastern time for the weekend. With the indicators unwinding from the O/B levels there is a sell signal awaiting this pair at around the break of 2975-65 area for now. This pair is still in a range bound atmosphere that has the market captivated for five weeks. I expect a break out soon on this pair we shall see what fire is brought in to the market with the conclusion of the weekend events. It is still sell on failed rallies until the main resistance is taken out IMHO. I hope everyone has a good and safe weekend. See you on the other side. Peace and GT

Atlanta South 17:48 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Have closed E/$ & $/Cad shorts with small gains on each.
Flat & out for the weekend. $/Cad should long from this
level. Gt to all & a great weekend.

CA Jhon 17:45 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Join this Forecast group that is providing daily signals with good profits http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/

dc CB 17:39 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
CD...what the pit traders see

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$cdw&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

Charlotte TH 17:27 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
bought usdcad here in 1.1730's target 1.1860/1.1920.

NYC Al 17:22 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo...
very good advice...I am sticking with it, I see eur/usd makes it's move to 1.31 level +/-.. it's like they said in Oceans 11 you're in or you're out, right now.."
good weekend to you too...

Oakland daimyo 17:12 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
NYC Al 16:48 GMT February 9, 2007
If you're nervous you must ask yourself why? Maybe you have too much leverage @ work. Exit breakeven or sell down to "sleep" level. True position traders must carry trades overnight & weekends as necessary. To exit or not should be a function of strategy, reward/risk & your relationship w/ market maker. If you cannot monitor/ be active in market, then you should exit, walk away, be ready for next week. Good trades

NYC Al 16:48 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
To ALL...opinion time...what if I held a 1.3015 Long eur/usd open over weekend? Good idea..Bad idea or ?????
Thanks Guys'

Dallas GEP 16:46 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
out for the weekend but usd/jpy and eur/gbp shorts are working for next week. target 121.05 and 6620

dc CB 16:44 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Canadian reaction to oil and VG employment report might just squeeze IMM shorts...watch that "hour of power" 2:00 to 3:00PM EST.

an aside. the town in upstate NY where I spent my freshman year has received 8 feet of snow in the last week and it's still snowing. not sure anyone there buys the global warming scenario.

NYC AL 16:34 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
tel aviv m
I am holding just before close today, I will take the hit before G7, I think we are looking at bounce before end of day
What do you think

lugano fc 16:29 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
closed eurusd shorts keeping the eurjpy.....think that more probably will the usdjpy correct to bring eurjpy down....

tel aviv rn 16:11 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
nyc al - are you still in position?

HK REVDAX 15:53 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:50 //Unlikely...imo ...when you have a scenario in which $/CHF is running into resistance while Euro is struggling to go down. It is a cross play that can last for a few days before either an avalanche or an upshoot takes place..imo

CT Cris 15:53 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 15:40 GMT February 9, 2007
CT Cris 15:09 GMT February 9, 2007
=======
I made 10 pips from its wake up , sold at 92 and exited 78.
should act fast as it is in sideways.

lugano fc 15:44 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
also added a limit to sell at 158.50 in case they want to eat all shorts be4 change the direction....

LKWD JJ 15:40 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 15:09 GMT February 9, 2007
gbp.usd is sleeping..dont disturb.
=========================
maybe on the floor as it has fallen out of bed.
i would like to resell higher @92 and have order below 62 to hit it again.s2 coming in @32 with resistance @08 which looks like it failed the retest. basis 1hr chart

Cali mmm 15:40 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Oil. I am short at 1.2994. Rgds.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:39 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The next targeting level is 0.7715* - 0.7718*.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:37 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : It is heading towards [0.7735] - [0.7743] range.

Cannes Oil man 15:32 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 15:22 GMT February 9, 2007

Think it might go lower still as EY still has lots of room to the downside.

That and model went short at 1.3029 after it started breaking down..So no buying it for the day...Sunday/monday might be a different story.
Could easily see 1.2930 before a bounce..1.2930 is still neutral , same as 1.3050 is..As we've been locked in this tight ranges for some time, and only a break of one side or the other could lead to a prolongation of the move..
Current range : 1.2953---1.3083...So we're definitely not having a trend atm , just back into the familiar range.
gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 15:32 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market will consolidate between 235.88* - 237.47*.

CT Cris 15:29 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
good questions for him to measure his skills , he is unable to answer such questions , as he only a good collector person,
just reading reports and transfer them here in his blog.

lugano fc 15:24 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
1.29 - 1.2920

Cali mmm 15:22 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, in your view what is your target for EUR/USD for today? tks.

lugano fc 15:21 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
short position eurjpy again at 100% stop again at 159. i can wait till closing but sometime will be the big dive (156.80/157)
if not i will keep the position for the weekend and lets see what comes out from g7

GENEVA DS 15:11 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Market in consolidation mood? What seems to be a very quiet and orderly market could turn into a real stop loss mover market shortly... In my view the market is positionned long EUR and long GBP against USD... as there are obviously all the time bids from Soverign addresses, most seem to be very comfortable being long the tow europeans.. however an break of 12970 in the short term and 19440 in cable could spark tremendous new USD buying... Expect the unexpected and a big USD rally VERY SHORTLY.... good luck and good trades...

CT Cris 15:09 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd is sleeping..dont disturb.

CT Cris 14:54 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:44 GMT February 9, 2007
Atlanta South 11:59 GMT February 9, 2007
Anyone have a projected low for E/$ for today
=====
12980-70

=====
after reaching this level will fill into narrow sideways.

Cannes Oil man 14:50 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 14:33 GMT February 9, 2007

Wait a bit, there's still lots of time before NY close..

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Gen dk 14:38 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
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HK REVDAX 14:33 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
In view of the absence of avalanche in Euro/$ and some pretty obvious divergency of $/CHF, I have thus closed out the bulk of my short Euro/$ position. Making money in the fx market is no cake walk, at least not for me.

Atlanta South 14:33 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man
What high do you see as cap for E/$ today? Tks for
your view. gt

madrid mm 14:33 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
does anyone trade Box option in here ? I mean HIT and DNT Option ? THis is just out of curiosity.

tel aviv rn 14:26 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
nyc al - i will tell you when to close about 20-30 pips

Oakland daimyo 14:26 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
FWIW: The "composite operator" will often float all boats in FX at the same time.
See http://www.freecotcharts.com/charts/SF.htm

Heavy Hitters (Commercial traders) heavily long Swiss Franc since start of Feb. Expect spot mkt to follow the money eventually. Having said all this I'm short USD/CHF also. Could be wrong but experience tells me I'm not. I think fishes are being sucked in currently. Shark Feeding going on. Good trades.

Cali mmm 14:25 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Ok, tks Oil.

NYC Al 14:23 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
tel aviv rn, great call ,,, when do you take profit.??

Cannes Oil man 14:23 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Problem , mmm for the day , is E$ might not be done, particularly with EY being at 158..With market having done a full week of upside on the pair , and a G7 during the weekend..
If i was long i would close and re enter on monday, though of course there has to be a trigger , probably under 157.50.
It's friday , anything can happen though.

Cali mmm 14:18 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Oilman. Good advise. Rgds.

Cannes Oil man 14:14 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Cali mmm 13:11 GMT February 9, 2007

It might be worthwhile to not trade this friday till monday open , for the cable , particularly if you are looking to long it.


Only thing of note is possibly EURJPY , and $/Y which might (or might not) depending on G7 have gaps to the downside on monday opening.

Cable has broken the major supports , buying it here without a first bounce is not advisable , however if it start going 1.9520/30 , can buy it with stops at low..

Eurojpy offers good potential to the short side before NY close as , normally people will close all the longs done this week , making it stumble(G7 event, lots of people will close even if it s supposed to be a "non event"...3 days ago it was a big event..).

Currently only short EY 158.20 , though i had $/CAD yesterday but closed prematurely.

gl.

Atlanta South 14:12 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo
ref 13:57/// Tks for the added info. I will dig into these
over the weekend. Your so correct, this is not a business
for guessing. Have a great weekend & gt.

madrid mm 14:09 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 14:04 GMT February 9, 2007
there is no snow..... lol although the day is not over yet IMHO

madrid mm 14:09 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 14:04 GMT February 9, 2007
there is no snow..... lol although the day is not over yet IMHO

HK REVDAX 14:04 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
How come there is no avalanche in Euro/$?

Oakland daimyo 13:57 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 13:34 GMT February 9, 2007
Also: http://www.hankpruden.com/nineclassic.pdf
The rest is basic Tech analysis in particular Fibonacci channels, triangle patterns, etc. Confluence of tech methadologies and analysis often provide very powerful clues to market direction and motive. Trading is a probability game which can be enhanced w/ the proper use of skill and knowledge. In other words, we do not guess, we make judgement calls based on experience. Good trades.

tel aviv rn 13:51 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
nyc al- test the arbitrage a good 20-30 pips profit

Atlanta South 13:51 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo
Tks for that info. I'll give those a look as the levels you posted
match very close to my levels from a method
that was passed on to me some yrs ago. Again, tks & gt.

NYC Al 13:47 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
tel aviv rn...english , I wish my Hebrew was that good, brother
I am long eur/usd now @ 3012 I am looking to be out by market open.

Oakland daimyo 13:44 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 13:34 GMT February 9, 2007
The best thing I can do is give you a good start. See my mentors website and most specifically article

http://www.hankpruden.com/MTWyckoffSchematics.pdf

and

http://www.hankpruden.com/lifecyclearticle.html

Plovidv Gotin 13:41 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Mirdiff Mike 13:29 GMT February 9, 2007
1.9476-->1.9750, if U want try it with SL 1.9442

Atlanta South 13:34 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Oakland Daimyo
ref 12:54/// Good reading. Could you advise of a source for
extended reading ref these levels? Tks & gt.

Mirdiff Mike 13:29 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Is it adviceable to buy cable at around 1.9480.If so since we have no data coming from usa today is there any chance for cable to go up.pls advice.

tel aviv rn 13:26 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
nyc al - sorry for my english.

i am only trading what my furmula indicats for now i dont have noting on eur/usd but there is a good arbitrage.

NYC Al 13:19 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
tel aviv rn... got it, just was wodering what the word was, price... I like the "arbitrage" move with the combo. My feelings are Long this morning, after the market opens for about 1/2 hour then pull the plug

jkt-aye 13:12 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
tel aviv rn
my magnetic level for eurchf at 1.6185. hope it help. gl

Cali mmm 13:11 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Good morning / afternoon to all. Oilman, if you are around, can you pls share your view on GBP/USD. What would be a good entry point for short term? any TP & SL targets also? TKS!

to dr unken katt 13:09 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
never mind cable , watch cableyen reach the TP 23650
, now we have inverted H&S , good starting point for long , if that holds

tel aviv rn 13:09 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
nyc al- i think that there is a price difference so i have short eur/usd and short usd/chf not short on eur/usd allown !!!

Oakland daimyo 13:06 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
NYC Al 12:57 GMT February 9, 2007

Yes I'm long. Most recent is from the 78.6 Fibo retrace of 1.2875 to 1.3065 rally that was put in place early this week. I have identified this as (LPS) on the 4 HR dealer chart. I have already given you my upside targets. Sorry cannot be more specific about chandelier trailing stop strategy. Adding on the way. Please note: one or two good trade strats can make your whole year. Good trades.

NYC Al 13:06 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
tel aviv rn ....puse ???
Short again today , where?

warsaw TOMi 13:05 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
kacik, stopped out at b.e.
squared short from 9499 at 9472 and flat fn.
where is yr tgt

tel aviv rn 13:04 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
nyc al - my formula is for puse for eur/usd but i am short eur/usd and the same amount of lots short usd/chf i think that it will bring good profit.

to dr unken katt 12:58 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
TOMIK how u doing this morning?
howz ur cable longs

NYC Al 12:57 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo...all that said, are you long today? and until where. I am Long @ 3015 but 3068 does looks inviting...

NYC Al 12:54 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
tel aviv rn morning (for me) yes, closed out with 12 pips. GOOD call M...what do you have today. I like Long @ 3015 for about the same 10-20 pips, and I am talkingh quickly

Oakland daimyo 12:54 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Inside the mind of the "Composite Operator"
EUR/USD ReAccumulation phase
Note Wyckoff Trading Range: Preliminary Support (PS) @ 1.1867 (07/08/2005); Selling Climax (SC) @ 1.1639 (11/18/2005); Automatic Rally (AR) @ 1.2323 (01/27/2006; Secondary Test (ST) @ 1.1827 (03/03/2006); Last Point of Support (LPS) @ 1.2484 (10/13/2006) note all dates are weekly

Pullback/ Correction complete @ 1.2866 Bottom (01/12/2007)
Note 50% Fibo retrace of 1.2484 to 1.3369 rally @ 1.2927
& 61.8 % Fibo retrace of same rally @ 1.2822

Upside price Targets are as follows: Conservative Triangle Tgt 1.3297 - 1.2866 = 431 pips + 1.3066 B/O = 1.3497; 127.2% Fibo extension of 1.3369 to 1.2866 sell off @ 1.3506; 161.8 % Fibo extension of same sell off @ 1.3680; Aggressive Triangle Tgt 1.3369 - 1.2763 = 606 pips + 1.3066 B/O = 1.3672; 25 x 3 P & F Tgt = 1.3675; & last but not least note: 1.3667 Buying Climax (BC) & Multi-Year High (12/31/2004)

Please note these are High probability med-term swing trade opps based on "composite operator" principles & long-term "real money player" strategy. I usually do not post as many have a hard time seeing price action in advance. However, I suggest traders keep Wayne Gretsky (greatest hockey player of all time) quote in mind: “I skate where the puck is going to be, not where it has already been".

Expect Short Squeeze to occur above 1.3064 R1 intraday resistance, last weeks high & Daily Triangle B/O point. Please note this area is critical because of confluence of techs. I suspect spec stops under here are vulnerable & may provide necessary fuel to launch into new high territory. Please note EUR/USD can drift up to the 1.36 to 1.37 area and still be considered range bound by long-term deep pocket traders. For this reason, I do not see any major resistance to price & expect pullbacks to occur as overhead supply is absorbed. IMO the "composite operator" has taken the last 1 1/2 years to prepare enough cause to affect a massive 20 big fig swing from the 1.1650 bottom. I continue to favor buy on dip strategy until we see upside price targets reached. Good trades

Atlanta South 12:54 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Plovidv Gotin & Ct Cris tks for the respose. Due to G7 I'll
soon close & stay on the side. Have a good weekend & gt.

tel aviv rn 12:44 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
i ave closed it 28 pips profit

CT Cris 12:44 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:59 GMT February 9, 2007
Anyone have a projected low for E/$ for today
=====
12980-70

tel aviv rn 12:43 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
nyc al did you close your short usd/eur?

warsaw TOMi 12:42 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 21:00 GMT February 8, 2007

nice call, happy trades!

NYC Al 12:37 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
btw...I am in eur/usd @ 3015 Long for a little bit 10-20 pips at best

NYC Al 12:36 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd...my thoughts we play the see-saw game again today
however CAUTION is advised for "holding" anything over the weekend with G7?? Any thoughts...

Plovidv Gotin 12:23 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:59 GMT February 9, 2007
Anyone have a projected low for E/$ for today. My
method gives a probable low @ 2955-65. High should be in
place. Any views are welcomed. Not a trading
recommendations just my views. Gt to all.

If 1.3045 is a daily Hi, U r rait. If not -->1.3058/78/1.3102/23 according to my Res/Sup system.

Bahrain BAH1 12:08 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Canada's January unemployment rate was 6.2%, up from 6.1% in December.
Employment change for January was 88.9k, an increase from December.

ABHA FXS 12:08 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Upper trendline breached on USDJPY @ 121.62 on 240 minute timeframe
Projected profit: 123.18
----
Lower trendline breached on GBPCHF @ 2.4339 on 240 minute timeframe
Projected profit: 2.3881
----

Atlanta South 11:59 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have a projected low for E/$ for today. My
method gives a probable low @ 2955-65. High should be in
place. Any views are welcomed. Not a trading
recommendations just my views. Gt to all.

madrid mm 11:56 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
fwiw and funny and so true
If Hedge Funds Kept Cows, Your Milk Would Go Sour: Mark Gilbert

By Mark Gilbert

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- A famous series of jokes attempts to define political systems. In communism, for example, you have two cows, your commune seizes them and charges you for milk. In a democracy, you have two cows, the cows outvote you 2-1 to ban all meat and dairy products, and you go bankrupt and starve to death.

Similar thinking can be applied to financial markets. Here, then, is the world of money recast in bovine terms.

Leveraged Buyouts

You have two cows. You come home from the fields one day to find Henry Kravis chatting to your spouse at the dining-room table. Two days later, you have no spouse, no farm, and no table. Two guys the size of sumo wrestlers have saddled up the cows and are riding them around the farmyard.

Currency Market

You have two cows. China has 1 trillion cows. Guess who sets the price of milk?

more @ http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aBDouX0a6h6o&refer=home

Plovidv Gotin 11:48 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Cable/ Res.1.9489-->1.9249(defence line) if break-->1.9098.GL> ay.

Cannes Oil man 11:47 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
We probably could see 6691 or so , but EUR/GBP is a good short around here , as i think EUR$ will drop later today..
gl gt

U.K. J.B 11:36 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
where do we go from here, with so much bearish talk around today re stg. I feel the best r/r trade at present is to short euro/stg, big points. I feel the europe talk and the bearish stg post no increase in rates etc all priced in now. Also hitting some decent levels to long stg crosses. Short euro/stg 66.80 Tar. 6575. Decent hedge with so much uncertainty surrounding the G7 GL/GT.

Athens MK 11:16 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
My bias for cable reflects what I posted below:

1.9463 is my first area to buy - take profit at 1.9533 with partial postions and leave the rest to take further up.

Now if 1.9533 is not touched then price should drop to to the 1.9380 area where new majority buy positions should occur for 1.9533 TP.

One more area for new buys would be 1.9275 area as well with the above 1.9533 TP level.

Major stop and reverse position is the 1.9193 level...... Important...

This is a swing trade analysis an not a daytrader play....

warsaw TOMi 11:10 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
target 9444 now.

warsaw TOMi 11:03 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
bounce should be done 9500.

CA Jhon 11:03 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY go short to 156.00

http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/

UK Alex 10:56 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Stops tipped 1.9490-19515

ABHA FXS 10:48 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Lower trendline breached on GBPJPY @ 236.80 on 240 minute timeframe
Projected profit: 234.52
----
Lower trendline breached on USDCAD @ 1.1844 on 240 minute timeframe
Projected profit: 1.1766
----
Upper trendline breached on EURGBP @ 0.6670 on 240 minute timeframe
Projected profit: 0.6817
----
Lower trendline breached on GBPUSD @ 1.9520 on 240 minute timeframe
Projected profit: 1.9305






UK Alex 10:46 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Andrew McLaughlin, RBS Group Chief Economist on BOE rates:

“This decision is likely to prove a temporary reprieve for borrowers. Retail sales data suggest that UK consumers are in fine fettle, there are early signs of a frisky start to the wage bargaining season, and the RBS/NTC PMI remains in hiking territory. I expect the MPC to increase rates one more time, to 5.5%.”

Athens MK 10:44 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Also keep an eye out for EUR.GBP as it looks to have crossdown from a strong res. trendline looking for .6610 area. With a nice retracement from GBP.USD and a drop of the EUR.USD occurring then that cross should approach .6610

Athens MK 10:36 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 10:26 GMT February 9, 2007

You could be right but I like to try to profit right below yesterdays low...

A critical support level for this swing trade is at 1.9193. If that level breaks then look for a bear trend to develop... A nice level to buy off of the bottom of this swing is around 1.9380 down to 1.9350....

warsaw TOMi 10:33 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
anyway,the meat isgone for the move for the week,
the bulls have been burnedbad and they probably are waiting for the next guy tomove
first

warsaw TOMi 10:26 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 10:22 GMT February 9, 2007

9530 seems to be distant a bit,slightly off 9500 should work I think..

Athens MK 10:22 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$:
Looking for a quick retracement to at least 1.9533 before continuing down once again....

Charlotte TH 10:16 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 23:01 GMT February 8, 2007
1.3042 looks like a good high for the move since 1.2912 low.max seen to 1.3052.a close tomm below 1.2980 may well put an end to all further upside.
-------------------------------------------------------
close below 1.2990 can herald 1.25 by mid-spring and 1.18 by mid-summer

kuala lumpur 10:15 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Qindex are u sure?why
GBP/USD : Heading towards 1.9275*.

any comment?

warsaw TOMi 10:12 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
katt, any tgt for cable?

Syd 10:09 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
G7 German Fin Min:Had General Forex Talk With China Fin Min

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:08 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:01 GMT February 9, 2007
It's the highest deficit since records began in 1697.


waw...since that year they have deficit. lol

Hong Kong Qindex 10:07 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Heading towards 1.9275*.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:04 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : I guess we have seen the daily high already!

CT Cris 10:02 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd may continue decline till 19440-30.

Syd 10:01 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
The U.K.'s overall trade deficit hit a record high in 2006, with the goods trade deficit in December alone also wider than expected.

The Office for National Statistics said Friday that in December the U.K.'s goods trade deficit widened to GBP7.1 billion in December from a revised GBP6.9 billion the month before. The November deficit had originally been published as GBP7.2 billion.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week forecast the trade deficit would be GBP7.0 billion.

The ONS said that the main reason for the widening deficit was that exports in December fell GBP0.2 billion. There were lower exports of aircraft and capital goods; in return, imports of capital goods were higher, as were imports of consumer goods other than cars.

The wider-than-expected December deficit took the full year goods trade deficit in the U.K. to GBP84.3 billion in 2006, up sharply from the GBP68.8 billion recorded in 2005. It's the highest deficit since records began in 1697.

madrid mm 10:00 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR - lol

i have the highest euro-yen ¨ever¨ set @ 158.63 on the 23rd jan 07 fwiw

CT Cris 09:58 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
1300 GMT is the time to buy gbp.usd.still keep selling it .

Hong Kong Qindex 09:56 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is consolidating within [156.52] - [158.27] for the time being.

PAR 09:55 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Maybe to drive from Courchevel to St Tropez ; unless you can use your newest Falcon private jet .

madrid mm 09:39 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:35 GMT February 9, 2007
why would anyone buy a car nowadays ? lol
Unless it is running on corn ¨sauce¨.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:37 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.2997*. The short term target is 1.2970*.

PAR 09:35 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
After copying the new Mercedes S and renaming it Lexus 460 , Toyota is planning a mega marketing campaign to conquer the German market . A weaker yen is financing their marketing budgets .

Hong Kong Qindex 09:27 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Barcelona juan 09:24 GMT - I guess you can contact EUR lg through [email protected]

Makassar Alimin 09:26 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
poor cable, as of euro i still believe this 1.30 level will be defended into next week

Barcelona juan 09:24 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Dr Q..very helpful

Hong Kong Qindex 09:18 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Barcelona juan 09:10 GMT - A major city in Spain.

madrid mm 09:15 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
pd cumino 08:56 GMT February 9, 2007
that to of course

Cannes Oil man 08:47 GMT February 9, 2007
thx

Even though China is ¨only¨a guest, they will have a card to play and i can imagine some of their representants saying
-listen chaps you want us to let the Yuan appreciate , but you do nothinhg about YEN ? come on now !!!
8-)

Barcelona juan 09:10 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   


eur lg 09:03 GMT February 9, 2007

Just out of curiosity..where in Eur are you located lg?

Baltimore Zoltan 09:05 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Thanks lg!

pd cumino 09:04 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
-0.8 (-0.5) +1(+1.3)

eur lg 09:03 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Nok cpi 1.2 down from 2.2 in dec. Core 1.0. Very weak.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:01 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : A projected resistant level has been established at 0.6708* - 0.6716*.

Baltimore Zoltan 09:00 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have the CPI and PPI data from Norway? Thanks!

Hong Kong Qindex 08:59 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The market is heading towards 0.6708.

pd cumino 08:56 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:30 GMT February 9, 2007
Perhaps the Eu Jap trade is not the only side you have to look.
EU and Jap are competitors in other markets.
For example my clients (machinery) exporting in US aren't insensitive to the fact that their Jap competitors have de facto a 40% advantage compared to 2002, due to currency.

Cannes Oil man 08:47 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Luxury-brand importers in particular have
been forced to raise prices on their goods. Hermes announced yesterday that it had hiked its prices in Japan 8% due to the weak yen and that Japan was 8% due to the weak yen and that Japan was the company"s main risk factor this year. The company is seen to have hedged its "07 EUR/JPY exposure at 146, up significantly from 135 in "06. LVMH is reported to have hiked its prices in "06. Gucci was reported to have noted earlier this month that it would not hike prices but, instead, try to sell higher-priced items having already hedged their over 90% of their exposure at 139.10 against 136.60 or so last year. The general trend amongst these importers is to raise prices however, and this will continue to add to the amounts of foreign exchange bought in Tokyo on a monthly basis.

Spotforex NY 08:43 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
re: Eur/jpy and G7

Central banks are looking 5-8 chess moves ahead on policy....yen concern is not shared by Europe, but China (and her growing influence on financial markets and trade) can bring the issue to the front burner.....

Not sure of it will play out in this G7 meeting, but as China 'complies' with US Treasury calls for stronger Yuan, China will not be too happy as japan gets a free pass to continue to export globally......

Hong Kong Qindex 08:40 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:11 GMT February 8, 2007
USD/CAD : The market is heading towards 1.1894*. A projected supporting barrier is positioning at 1.1828* // 1.1853.

PAR 08:38 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
No more japanese at LVMH only CHINESE .

madrid mm 08:33 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
an d i bet Japanese consumers are happy to buy them... Indeed strange world

Cannes Oil man 08:30 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
LVMH already putting a 10% surcharge on products in Japan.

madrid mm 08:30 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
why would the EU worry about YEN weakness as Japan is probably representing a small part of our trade .....Ooooooh I get it, it is about all this luxury goods 8-)

PAR 08:28 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
If ECB bankers can not solve EURJPY problem politicians will do it . Remember Bush imposing tarifs on steel imports . So Europ can impose tarifs on japanese car imports and still preach free market policies .

Hong Kong Qindex 08:07 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to challenge the barrier at 1.9444 // 1.9471*

lugano fc 07:54 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
took some profit (30%) give back again if 158.10 seen

CT Cris 07:53 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:04 GMT February 9, 2007
gbp.usd
=======
in sideways levels between 19605 and 19570.
buy if breaks 19605 , sell if breaks 19570 . confirmed by close
3 bars 5 mins chart above or below the said levels.
===
mostly the break will be to down.

====
100 pips ..still going down more.

Auckland trotter 07:48 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Looking at a possible retraction of the EUR/USD to around 1.3025. This I see as a level of interest on the 1hr 5day chart. Then more possible down.

Early speculators pre the opening of the EUR market seem to be active.

lugano fc 07:42 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
thats it ;-))) stop at entry and let it go....

warsaw TOMi 07:41 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
looks like €/$ achieved 1.3012 but failed to reach 1.3063.. peace now.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:35 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 13:24 GMT February 8, 2007
GBP/USD : the market is going to tackle the barrier at 1.9513 // 1.9538*.

Auckland trotter 07:30 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
The EUR/USD has failed to hit the R1 of the weekly pivots of 1.3053, which is around the 38.2% pivot on the 1day 6mo chart.

Selling for now from 1.3038 which appears as a resistance level on the 4hr 20day chart.

Pressure for now I see as to R1 of the weekly pivots at 1.2975 and the 50% fib around 1.2965 on the 4hr 20 day chart.

We shall see with the opening of the EUR market and once the UK market settles down.

lugano fc 07:19 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
think that todays better choice is to short eurjpy even without looking at the charts....sometime during today the g7 will come into play and i doubt that people want to go in the weekend short of jpy. looking at eurchf and eurgbp this is the cross with major down possibilities (stop at 159)

CT Cris 07:17 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
I hope you made 20pips from my call as start of europe.

madrid mm 07:15 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi, another friday with some volatility in the pipeline , ie g7 old boys club 8-)

courtesy of bloomberg.com

-Yen Drops as G-7 Statement May Stop Short of Criticizing Currency's Slide The yen fell for a third day against the dollar after banks said a Group of Seven meeting starting today probably won't agree to criticize the currency's weakness.
-Yen Options Volatility to Fall After G-7 Meeting, Credit Suisse Predicts Investors should use options to wager that volatility in the yen will drop and the currency will trade in a range versus the dollar after this weekend's meeting of Group of Seven nations, according to Credit Suisse Group.


Americas
-Steinbrueck, Breton Face Paulson, Omi Opposition on Yen at Group of Seven European finance ministers are set to fail in their effort to persuade counterparts from the Group of Seven industrial nations to sound the alarm on a weak yen.

Europe
-U.K. Pound Set for Weekly Decline After BOE Keeps Interest Rates on Hold The pound is set for its biggest weekly drop versus the euro this year after the Bank of England kept interest rates on hold yesterday, disappointing some investors who'd bet on a surprise increase.
-Swiss Franc Declines Versus Euro as Report Shows January Inflation Slowed The Swiss franc fell to its lowest versus the euro this month after a report showed inflation in Switzerland slowed in January to the lowest in almost three years, stoking expectations the central bank will keep interest rates on hold.
-Ruble Gains Versus Euro, Dollar; Russia May Be Seeking to Damp Inflation The Russian ruble rose versus the euro and dollar, which the country uses to manage its exchange rate, on speculation the central bank is seeking to damp inflation.

Asia
-OCBC Boosts Yuan Forecast 1 Percent on Bets China More Tolerant on Gains Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. boosted its forecast for appreciation in China's yuan this year by 1 percent, betting the government will be more tolerant of currency gains to narrow the nation's record trade surplus.
-Thai Baht to Decline 6 Percent to 38 on Rate Cuts, Standard Chartered Says The Thai baht will drop to 38 per dollar by September as the central bank adds to interest-rate cuts to weaken the currency and protect exports, allowing it to relax ``controversial'' capital controls, Standard Chartered said.
-Yen to Fall as G-7 Unlikely to Cite Currency's Drop, Lehman Brothers Says The yen, near a four-year low against the dollar, will decline further as the Group of Seven nations meeting this weekend may stop short of criticizing the Japanese currency's weakness, according to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Sydney ACC 07:00 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
This uncertainty prompted by the release oif the discussion between NZ treasury and RBNZ sabout a tax on fixed rate mortgages introduces the sort of uncertainty into the market akin to what we saw in Thailand earlier this year.

Reckon kiwi will get sold down by Europe towards recent support at 0.6790.

milan tom 06:21 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
seems eurusd is making a cup-and-handle pattern with target
1,3150, that is also the 62% retracement of the swing 2/1 -12/1/2007. A good cluster, but maybe not for today

CT Cris 06:04 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
=======
in sideways levels between 19605 and 19570.
buy if breaks 19605 , sell if breaks 19570 . confirmed by close
3 bars 5 mins chart above or below the said levels.
===
mostly the break will be to down.

athens kos44 05:38 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
NYC Al 01:45 GMT February 9, 2007
A good level if you want to short the euro is above 1.3075
Happy trading

Makassar Alimin 05:21 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
another boring friday, i dont expect big move later on as everyone will be waiting for G7, maybe should have an early weekend...

mal semiji 03:58 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
what is high range for eurusd today ,, anyone can tell me ?

USA BAY 03:53 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Is eur/jpy heading towards 159 by Friday close, no hurry. Comment whenever you have the time. Tia

mal semiji 03:47 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
can anyone tell me range for eurusd..

Hong Kong Qindex 03:29 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 03:02 GMT - I will post it later today otherwise no one would like to use my service.

Syd 03:13 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Chirac hints at relinquishing presidency
Chirac hints at relinquishing presidency

HK REVDAX 03:02 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex// Euro/$ did go up to 1.3047 as predicted exactly by your model. What is your forecasted Hi for today?

CT PT 02:34 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
JPY is showing across the board weakness w/ high volatility pre G7.....does not bode well for fresh longs.....seems that next wk will be a bloodbath w/ forced yen strengthening...

Syd 02:32 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
US Congress takes aim at Tokyo over yenPowerful House Democrats are pressing the Bush administration to persuade Tokyo to strengthen the yen, claiming the currency’s weakness is bolstering Japanese imports at the expense of US manufacturers.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/dc68cbf2-b7a8-11db-bfb3-0000779e2340.html

Makassar Alimin 02:30 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
NYC Al 01:45 GMT February 9, 2007

as long as it stays above 1.30 this time, i prefer upside for euro

NYC Al 01:45 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
anyone thinking short eur/usd

Philadelphia Caba 01:39 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 17:45 GMT February 8, 2007
DS, very good point..I like your view..but only time will tell if you were right...gl/gt!

Syd 01:30 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Weak Australia House Finance Suggests RBA On Hold
Lending for housing in Australia was virtually flat in December a clear signal that multiple interest rate increases in 2006 are biting hard on the sector. Housing finance rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.1% in December from November, well short of an anticipated 1.0% increase.



Syd 00:36 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Porto Genius 00:34 GMT only look at that at extreme levels otherwise done trade it

Porto Genius 00:34 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Hi Syd!
Whats your view about eur/aud next days?
thanks! ;)

Syd 00:30 GMT February 9, 2007 Reply   
Australian Dec Housing Finance Up 0.1% Vs 1.0% Consensus
The number of housing-finance approvals in Australia rose a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in December from November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Friday.

Economists surveyed ahead of the announcement on average had expected a rise of 1.0% in December.


 




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