Forex Forum Archive for 02/10/2007

Sydney ACC 23:40 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Early on Monday morning with the absence of the Tokyo the market will be indecisive, spreads will widen but on the whole I would suggest a weaker currencies across the board with generally lower JPY crosses.
There atre two issues to consider:
1. The G7 warnings which without actual intervention may be ignored by some participants. However, as risk is different hand maiden to each of her aspirants there will be some detered from entering new psoitions. Others looking forward to 31st March which for many is a year-end will use this an excuse to book profits.
2. Traditionally at this time of the year Japanese corporates begin window-dressing their accounts. Actual repatriation of money occurs. So then this trend coupled with the warnings will at least stem the decline in JPY. It ought if the trend gathers momentum see some actual appreciation in JPY. It may just need time.

tokyo ginko 23:04 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
pls note Monday is a holiday in Japan so liquidity is thin in the morning. GT all.

NYC Al 22:31 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Evening from the EST, any feelings om the cable Sunday??

Houston SG 22:23 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Mlaysia, you mentioned Youtube.com forex videos. I went there and found forex video from October 2006. The info is old on fundamentals. Please explain how I can better utilize info from Youtube.com Thanks
sg

CA Jhon 21:39 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Yen will return its loses earlier
I expect 155.00 for EURJPY in coming week.

GVI Jay 21:28 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
AFX has an excellent recap of the G7. if anyone would like a copy, send me an EMAIL

madrid mm 21:13 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Excelent and informative artcile @ http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8679006

Some extracts below -

Japan's currency

Carry on living dangerously
Feb 8th 2007
From The Economist print edition

Speculators and low interest rates have helped cheapen the yen, putting the world economy at risk
Satoshi Kambayashi
THE yen is perhaps the world's most undervalued currency. It is even cheaper than the Chinese yuan by some measures. Last week the Japanese currency hit an all-time low against the euro and its real trade-weighted value fell to its lowest since at least 1970, according to an index tracked by JPMorgan. But do not expect the G7 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Essen, Germany, on February 9th and 10th to spend much time discussing the yen, let alone to do anything to support it.

PAR 19:00 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Despite all their pre G7 rethoric , Steinbruck, Trichet & Co did not discuss the yen and got no results at all. Paulson the big winner, so expect stronger $ against all currencies next week .

Singapore Sfx 15:11 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
NYC - they've got 24 hours more... stay tuned

NYC 15:07 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
SFX. There used to be a TV show called Spin City. This is a good name for this post-G7 reality show.

Singapore Sfx 15:02 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
From GVI

Singapore Sfx 15:02 GMT February 10, 2007
The communique is as mentioned in the FF and is glaring in the fact that there is no mention of the yen - that said, the comments thereafter are far from quiet...

here goes..

german finmin : we are convinced that markets are aware of fx market risks.
: ministers made clear that japanese economy is recovering and that fx shud reflect this

ecb's weber:
- all partcipants cfmed global growth robust
- data shows soft landing in the u.s
- u.s is on robust expansion path
- sees positive data on japan, recovery continuing.

and this
ECB's Trichet - asked about yen , says "wants to warn market against one-way bets."
- says japanese finmin, cb gov commets "speaks by itself"
(not sure which ones he is referring to cos all they say is "fx shud reflect fundamentals)

G7 official reiterates that we want markets to be aware of risk of one way bets. Adds, this is particularly the case with fx markets.

German finmin - important that we agree with japan that fx should reflect economic fundamentals.

Eurogroup's Juncker - Japan finmin, cbank agree that fx rates should reflect economic recovery.

NYC 14:20 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Chine will move at its own pace and market has no reason to buy jpy other than the fact that it went short ahead of the G7. The communique was a non event. Let's see what happens at usd/jpy 122.00-20 and eur/jpy 158.60.

NYC 14:17 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Morning all, any thoughts on how Sunday will open eur/usd. I am Long a position? Thanks guys

FW CS 13:51 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
NYC
Just because they did not mention Japan the paragraph does mention their conditions reread the communique. The last tme this almost identical wording was placed in a G7 communique the Yen strengthened and stenghtened so much in a few days that the Japs complained about it a few days later. If China is presured to raise their currency controls that takes some pressure off the Japanese to keep their curreny low. Not saying Yen pairs gap down on Monday but I do not think the Yen pairs weakens on Monday.

NYC 13:44 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
FW, how is this yen friendly? Japan got a free pass.

FW CS 13:30 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
ESSEN, Germany (Reuters) - The Group of Seven countries agreed on the following communique wording on exchange rates at their meeting in Essen on Saturday, a G7 source told Reuters ahead of the official release of the statement.

"We reaffirm that exchange rates should reflect economic fundamentals. Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates are undesirable for economic growth. We continue to monitor exchange markets closely, and cooperate as appropriate.

"In emerging economies with large and growing current account surpluses, especially China, it is desirable that their effective exchange rates move so that necessary adjustments will occur."
-----------------------------------------------------------
The wording is almost identical to that of the exchange rate paragraph from the Singapore G7 meeting last September. In my opinion it should also be Yen friendly. Not sure what kind of Yen reaction we will see on Monday but I do not think Yen weakens further on Monday.

Porto Genius 13:25 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
GVI john all times are GMT right?
TIA

GVI john 13:10 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
COT analysis courtesy Cumino..

SAVE AND UNZIP

GVI john 12:12 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Mon, Feb 12, 2007
JA- Holiday
22:30 AU- RBA Qly Policy Statement
08:30 UK- Jan PPI
17:00 US- Jan Budget(see +$40bln vs. +$21bln)

Tue, Feb 13, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan CGPI
07:00 GE- GE- 4Q06 GDP (flash)
09:30 UK- Jan CPI
target="new">CHART

10:00 EZ- Dec IP
10:00 EZ- 4Q06 GDP (flash)
10:00 EZ- Jan Trade
10:00 GE- Feb ZEW
13:30 US- Dec Trade (see -$59.7bln vs. -58.2bln)
13:30 CA- Dec Trade

Wed, Feb 14, 2007
23:50 JA- Dec C/A
05:30 JA- Dec final IP
UK- Inflation Report
08:30 UK- Jan Employment
13:30 US- Jan Retail Sales (see +0.3% vs. +0.9%; ex-autos +0.4% vs. +1.0%)
15:00 US- Dec Bus Inventories (see +0.1% vs. +0.4%)
15:30 US- Weekly Energy

Thu, Feb 15, 2007
23:50 JA- 4Q06 GDP
08:30 UK- Jan Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- ECB Bulletin
13:30 US- Feb Empire State PMI (see 10.2 vs. 9.1)
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 313K vs. 311K)
14:00 US- Dec TIC Flows
14:15 US- Jan IP- C/U (see 0.0 vs. +0.4%; 81.7% vs.81.8%)
15:30 US- Natural Gas
17:00 US- Feb Philly Fed (see 4.4 vs. 8.3)
18:00 US- Feb NAHB (see 36 vs. 35)

Fri, Feb 16, 2007
23:50 JA- Dec Tertiary Activity Index
07:00 GE- Jan CPI (final)
10:00 EZ- Jan Trade
13:30 US- Jan Housing Starts (see 1.6mln vs. 1.642mln)
13:30 US- Jan PPI (see -0.5% vs. +0.9%; core +0.2% vs. +0.2%)
15:00 US- Feb(p) U of M (see 96.6 vs.96.9)


Mon, Feb 19, 2007
US- Presidents Day Holiday

Spotforex NY 10:38 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:15

It is not the 'outright warming' implied by the name...but the extreme volatility in weather patterns.....That is my understanding from the 'purists' of the movement.....

Auckland peat 09:59 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
censored = C... M.. C...

Auckland peat 09:57 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
thanks for the quote on CHF/JPY and yes censored is the reason I ask . Their quotes do seem to go haywire during the weekends but I dont think they actually trade at those prices.

Syd 09:17 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
USD CB SPEAKER NOW! Fed's Bies departure will mean the loss of a moderate dove (FOMC)

Syd 08:16 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Rolls-Royce warns of risk over UK sell-off
By James Boxell in London
Britain’s willingness to sell key industries to overseas businesses is turning the country into an “aircraft carrier” for foreign companies without addressing the economic consequences for the UK, the chief executive of Rolls-Royce has warned.

Sir John Rose, one of Britain’s leading industrialists, told the Financial Times that the UK’s industrial and education policy was not geared up to allowing Britain’s manufacturing industry to be snapped up by foreign owners who make decisions in their own national interest rather than Britain’s.
FT.com

Malayasia 08:03 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
there is one guy can trade very wall , he post his video clip on Youtube.com. He demonstrade his trade very wall with very good result.

Sofia mik 06:03 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 23:56 GMT February 9, 2007
what was weekly close for CHF/JPY

97.41/97.46

Makassar Alimin 05:56 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B. 05:49 GMT February 10, 2007

agree J.B., imagine how many would be margin-called with gbpusd quoting at that price that's 500 pips difference from the friday's closing...

U.K. J.B. 05:49 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
Hence the term- Bucket Shops.

We have the opportunity to trade in a professional,liquid market open 24 hours a day. Unfortunately there are bucket shops around that don't have the expertise to trade profitably so they have to find there income in other ways.

Baltimore Zoltan 05:44 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
censored = censored

Baltimore Zoltan 05:43 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
I don't think you can trust those quotes, censored puts up off quotes every single weekend. E.g., last weekend AUD was way off between Friday's close and Monday's Auckland open. Today they quoted GBP way off as soon as the market closed.

Makassar Alimin 05:14 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
and we have C.M.C now quoting usdjpy 122.55 eurjpy 159.35 gbpjpy 242.95, gbpusd 1.9824, cadjpy 104.54 LOL monday would be fun

Norway e.s 00:13 GMT February 10, 2007 Reply   
NYC 23:17 gmt, Hoping for a gap down, clos to resant hig now ( anyway just a smal position and i going to see what to do when marked open agen,when ewery body want to buy maby its time to consider a short) gl/gt