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Forex Forum Archive for 02/11/2007

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Global-View 23:56 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
NYC 22:46 GMT February 11, 2007 - reminder to add your initials. Do it once and click save in the psoting template.

Porto Genius 23:51 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Baltimore Zoltan 22:38 GMT February 11, 2007

You have to wait more 37 minutes.
the gvi calendar had the time wrong!

Syd 23:47 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
BOK Official: Watching Yen/Won Rate, 'Deemed Worrisome'
The Bank of Korea is keeping a close watch on the continued fall in the Japanese yen against the South Korean won as the yen/won cross rate again nears a new nine-year low, a central bank official said Monday.

"The central bank is watching the yen/won cross rate as it is deemed worrisome," Oh Jae-Kwon, head of the Bank of Korea's foreign exchange market team, told Dow Jones Newswires.




ABHA FXS 23:24 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Upper trendline breached on LONG EURJPY @ 158.76 on 240 minute timeframe
Summary
Trendline point 1: high at 2007.02.09 04:00 (158.37)
Trendline point 2: high at 2007.01.24 00:00 (158.61)
First candle above line: 158.90 - 2007.02.11 20:00
Projected profit: 162.09
====
Upper trendline breached on LONG GBPUSD @ 1.9511 on 240 minute timeframe
Summary
Trendline point 1: high at 2007.02.09 04:00 (1.9599)
Trendline point 2: high at 2007.02.08 04:00 (1.9728)
First candle above line: 1.9522 - 2007.02.11 20:00
Projected profit: 1.9647
====
Upper trendline breached on LONG USDJPY @ 121.95 on 240 minute timeframe
Summary
Trendline point 1: high at 2007.02.09 12:00 (121.71)
Trendline point 2: high at 2007.01.30 08:00 (121.94)
First candle above line: 122.05 - 2007.02.11 20:00
Projected profit: 123.90
====

London C 23:19 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
NYC 22:45 GMT

...jpy has been boosted by g7 talks of jpy int rate,growth and carry trades .... euro/jpy has reacted ..forcing euro up ..since euro/gbp is trying to retrace ....gbp is following suit.

London C 23:02 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Euro/gbp ,,, 61.8% retracement of jan 4/07 (6761) and jan 22/07 (6534) @ 6689 .........longish down trend going to continue ???

london av 22:52 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
an odd start to the week considering g7 comments

NYC 22:46 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
that word was "violent"

NYC 22:45 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
any reason we are seeing such vilent pullback on cable and eur/usd

Baltimore Zoltan 22:43 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Caba!

Philadelphia Caba 22:40 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan, 19:30 est

Baltimore Zoltan 22:38 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
I thought we were supposed to get RBA minutes about ten minutes ago. Did I get the time/date wrong? Thanks!

NYC Al 22:18 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
thanks, I am still in eur/usd I a staying, I think Paulson never said anything good about usd either

ny fx pro 22:16 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
think the cable trade is going to be fine, expect british cpi to be still above 3 pct on tuesday. inflation report will be hawkish. I think alot of stops got triggered in the euo gbp last week causing the sell off in cable. the one time m&a deal in euro gbp seems to be out of the way now . euro gbp to head back down to 66 cents should give cable a good bid

NYC Al 22:04 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Knock Knock, am I alone here, just wanted to talk about my position I just put on, cable long 1.9499

NYC Al 21:59 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
We are off to the races....eur/usd dive dive dive

Syd 21:50 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Australian Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd surges ahead in ACNielsen public opinion poll, overtaking PM John Howard in approval ratings and as preferred prime minister. Poll gives Labor election-winning 58%-32% lead over Liberal-National coalition, two-party preferred; also gives Rudd title of most popular opposition leader in 35 years. "I don't pay any attention to these polls," Rudd tells Sky television. "I have the fight of my life on my hands." Nice set of numbers for Labor in election year, although Rudd himself notes public opinion may change as the federal poll approaches.

PAR 21:21 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Chinese yuan has appreciated substantially, especially against the yen .

texas 21:04 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Analyzing the Carry Trade on Yen
Will the Carry trade resume on yen after G7 meeting?
During the weekend the G7 has sent a clear message to the hedge funds on their carry trade on Yen which according to the G7 statement doesn’t reflect the fundamentals of the Japanese economy.
This is true, but the point is that the yen decline is not a reflection of Japanese economy, the decline is a reflection of the interest rate on yen which is very low in comparison with the interest rate on other major currencies, the answer now is if the hedge funds will resume their carry trades on the yen?
The expectation is that this kind of trade will resume strongly bringing the yen much lower as:
1-The Japanese officials are not willing to enter the currency market to help the yen as they confirmed that currency traders are free to set the value of the yen.
2- Lower yen is helping Japan exports in a very competitive Asian export market (see latest Toyota record exports as example) .
3-the continuation of big differences on the interest rate on yen in comparison with other major currencies make the risk/reward more attractive of the carry trade on yen
How much the Carry Trade will affect the yen?
The concept of carry trade is borrowing money from a low interest rate currency selling this currency into other one which has much higher interest rate and investing the money again in this currency.
If we will take a closer look into the concept of the carry trade, we can see that the yen decline will take a long time, because it will need time to be completed and with actual low yen interest rate, the expectation is that many players will join this trade selling the yen and bringing it much lower, especially after the green light from the Japanese officials that they will not intervene in the Forex market.
Bearish Technical view on the yen
If we will return to a 10 years USD/YEN chart we can find these interesting bearish points:
1-The (146) USD/YEN rate registered on 8-10-1998
2- The (1.34) USD/YEN rate registered on 2-5-2002
3-The (1.21) USD/YEN rate registered on 6-12-2005
We can see the next move to 1.25 levels and even more to 1.35 but with more data, you can also refer to the chart from 2003 until today, what is remembering you this picture?


Where is the Risk?
We must take a close attention to the G7 message on the hedge funds carry trade on yen, in fact if better than expected Japan fundamentals, a rise in yen interest rate expectation will result a crash on the carry trade among with a sharply demand for the yen which will result big losses for yen short trade.

St. Annaland Bob 20:57 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   

Mrs. Royal promises amount above USD 24K as minimum y/y income for people working in France. hope that point is clear now.

St. Annaland Bob 20:50 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
G7 kept on providing storm in cup of tea, seems no long term results came out that meeting. from the other hand, the barking French lady presidential candidate publishes plans that France (or actually any nation) cannot afford ... with public promises for minimum income of USD 24K as law, I wonder for who the lady plays as trojan horse ... happy trades

Sydney ACC 20:49 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   

THE NSW Property Council has urged the State Government to exempt new dwellings from stamp duty, warning that without the stimulus the property market could remain in the doldrums for another 18 months to two years.

Building of detached houses was at its lowest level in 40 years, with only 32,858 starts in 2005-06, the Property Council's executive director, Ken Morrison, said.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/scrap-stamp-duty-on-new-homes--propertygroup/2007/02/11/1171128816485.html

Syd 20:20 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
G7 Aims To Curb Carry Trades
G7 statement shows some desire to curb carry trades but Japan has escaped without specific mention of yen; may mean some interest to sell JPY further though FX market action from late last week had largely priced in such a scenario. G7 communique makes no reference to yen but notes Japan's recovery is "on track and is expected to continue"; G7 members say they "are confident the implications of these developments will be recognized by market participants and will be incorporated in their assessments of risks." That's oblique reference to possibility JPY could strengthen and Japan rates rise as recovery continues, which in turn could threaten carry trades. In press briefings after statement, some G7 members highlighted those statements with coordinated language that made clear the yen-funded carry trade was primary target; "we want markets to be aware of the risks in one-way bets in general. We, in particular, think of carry trades, but not only carry trades," said ECB's Trichet. Japan's Omi added "market participants ought to be aware that acting in one direction could bring a risk."

LKWD JJ 20:06 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 16:26 GMT February 11, 2007
london av 13:37 GMT February 11, 2007

why change the winning formula? if you are in profit, just lock it in by putting stop in the profit zone and go to sleep, sometimes it is just what you need
==============================
had same but closed afraig of gap down after g7. maybe get chance to buy @65 again .

PAR 19:15 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
If elected Royal wants to change the statutes of the ECB to, as the FED, take growth into account.

singapore boaz 18:30 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   

gbpusd it should go up to 1.97-1.99 again this week.



**************
NYC Al 17:54 GMT February 11, 2007
Afetrnoon (from NY) All
any thoughts on movement of Cable or eur/usd at open??

Philadelphia Caba 18:00 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
eur/jpy 158.45-50
usd/jpy 121.74-79
at open

NYC Al 17:54 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Afetrnoon (from NY) All
any thoughts on movement of Cable or eur/usd at open??

GVI Jay 17:44 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
If anyone is interested in seeing Highlights of US economic data to be released in the coming week send me an EMAIL

Makassar Alimin 16:26 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
london av 13:37 GMT February 11, 2007

why change the winning formula? if you are in profit, just lock it in by putting stop in the profit zone and go to sleep, sometimes it is just what you need

Global-View Gendk Special 13:52 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
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london av 13:37 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
im long $/yen from 12033. do u suggest closing out the position now or see what happens in early trading monday?

FW CS 13:23 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 12:13 GMT February 11, 2007
1998 was the last time there was a massive liquidation of the Yen carry trade $/Yen dropped 20 figures in like 72 hours. While I am not looking for an equivalent move now but I can see a move that will hurt some of these late Yen carry trade people (say like 3-5 figures)

HK [email protected] 12:13 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
To keep things simple; If the carry trade may trigger a decline in a financial instrument, so will also it trigger liquidatons from accounts which are holding that instrument in cash-money. So we are talking practically, about larger amounts of investment money in the markets, except those involved directly in the carry trade.

RIC fxq 12:05 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR, you have the BoJ intervening ever other post just as you have the PPT intervening in equity markets every down tick.

PAR 11:15 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Paulson is incorrect by saying Japan did not intervene in currency markets since 2004 and currency analysts at GS agree that the yen is manipulated. Apart from fysical intervention a wide spectrum of other tools have been used e.g. verbal intervention , manipulation of cpi, artificially low interest rates, use of Kampo buying dollars, government pressure on BOJ etc. So Paulson saying Japan did not intervene is like Clinton saying he did not have sex with Monica Lewinsky .

Tokyo JJ 10:59 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
We want to strictly stick to one language," Peer Steinbrueck said. "It's the common view of finance ministers and central bankers that markets should be aware of risks stemming from one-sided bets, particularly on foreign exchange markets. This addresses the problem linked in particular to carry trades."

Japanese Minister of Finance Koji Omi added his voice to the chorus.

"Market participants ought to be aware that acting in one direction could bring a risk," he said, referring to some traders view that yen weakness is a sure bet.

CA Jhon 09:15 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
Yen will return its loses earlier, don't bet on fundamentals
and be a technical trader like this group. censored I expect 155.00 for EURJPY in coming week.

HK [email protected] 08:16 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
---------AT THE fOOT OF THE MOUNTAIN OF FEAR---------------

The G-7 meeting was able to give up to the Jap-US fear of the many-many billions investments of Japanese, sent out of Japan with the BOJ blessing(Shhhhhh no intervention please) over the years.
Any sudden movement of that money-mountain, or a chunk of it++++others involved in the carry trade will really blow off things around the world.

So instead of calls to stop and reverse the yen depreciation as the EU members were wielding with, we hear those chewed warnings about dangers sent to carry traders. What these politician-bankers convened for? For warning investors about the dangers of the carry trade, or to jump on the back of China for faster revaluation. What Japan has contributed for the Revaluation of the YUAN?
On the contrary the Yen which supposed to play a proxy for the Yuan, has been instead depreciating, upsetting the Chinese.

The Japs has to continue to tell lies to the world about their on track economy "wait wait soon all will be ok, interest rates will rise Yen will reflect the fundamentals bla bla bla".

But nothing is ok; Too much money is trapped in the carry trade, with no hope for orderly exit. The amounts are just too big.
The fear of a sudden unwinding of the carry trade, is all over and that what came out of the G7 meeting.

Remember the great American rule:

IF THE WORST MAY HAPPEN BET IT WILL

Lndn Frnd 07:50 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
ten 4 platform sunday rates
euro 12898
chf 12688
jp 122.45
gold 655.10
but no change on stg cad aud or other s ????

U.K. J.B. 01:40 GMT February 11, 2007 Reply   
SELL EURO/STG AS RE MY EARLIER POST...

 




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