Forex Forum Archive for 02/12/2007

USA BAY 23:40 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, your bias for gbp/usd is down to the said target. Thanks you

Hong Kong Qindex 23:37 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy. The short term target is 1.9405.

syd 23:14 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Hedge Fund Risk
New reports indicate the hedge fund industry is dealing with increased leverage and decreased spreads across sectors, Standard & Poor's Hedge Fund Specialist

syd 23:05 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Carry trades and growing currency risks
By Gillian Tett FT.com
In the autumn of 1998, I bumped into a senior official at Long Term Capital Management, the US hedge fund, in a carpark in Tokyo (where I then worked). I’ve never forgotten the sight: not only was he haggard but his hair had turned almost white, seemingly overnight. No wonder. As I later discovered, that was the day LTCM was on the verge of implosion. And one factor driving that meltdown was a storm in Tokyo’s currency markets. Global hedge funds frantically unwound carry trades they had made using the yen – propelling the Japanese currency 18 per cent higher in three turbulent days.

syd 23:01 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
The Short View: Blowing raspberries at the G7
There are few things that traders like better than blowing a raspberry at the Group of Seven industrialised leaders. Monday was a case in point.
LINK

LKWD JJ 22:40 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
from gvi earlier but need some clarification.
SydoJoe 12:18 GMT February 12, 2007
one thing i do have a feeling about is that if usdyen is at these levels 121.80 -- 122.20 tom AM when the Nihonbashi Warriors come in they might give it a decent nudge lower..

the who? sound like fx name for some big asian boys.

Atlanta South 22:04 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Athen yy//
ref 20:29...E/$ longterm @ 2300. What is is time cycle for
this 2300 level? A fellow trader has given me this level by
mid-late March. That soon you say, or when? Not doubting
your call, but find it ironic you are calling for that level as he.
Tks for your view & gt.

LKWD JJ 22:03 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
one word of caution: mkts can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent.....

LKWD JJ 21:55 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
$Y: macd and rsi showing rather large divergence with this new movement above 121.5-122. adx has been moving lower from peak of 32 since jan 23. with cot at record short levels, looks like mkt is setting itself (if not already there) for a classic tumble. after it happens it will be easy to point at the chart and say "this" is where the trigger was.

syd 21:51 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
RBA Statement Strips AUD Of Key Support-NAB
Any support for the Australian dollar flowing from the reasonable likelihood of a RBA rate hike over coming months all but evaporated with yesterday's RBA policy statement, says National Australia Bank currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos; reasonable risk remains a few weak domestic economic reports could prompt the market to price the next rate move as a cut. AUD will also struggle against currencies supported by heightened expectations of an interest rate hike in coming months including the Euro, New Zealand dollar and British pound.

GVI john 21:00 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Tue, Feb 13, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan CGPI
07:00 GE- GE- 4Q06 GDP (flash)
09:30 UK- Jan CPI


10:00 EZ- Dec IP
10:00 EZ- 4Q06 GDP (flash)
10:00 EZ- Jan Trade
10:00 GE- Feb ZEW
13:30 US- Dec Trade (see -$59.7bln vs. -58.2bln)


13:30 CA- Dec Trade

NYC jr 20:59 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
-$59.7Bln BBRG Survey

wyborg grey wolf 20:51 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Who knows any forecast tomorrow USA Trade deficit?

NYC EL 20:41 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Athens Y , Why these numbers are SO bullish USD & why?

INCHEON spiros 20:38 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Athens Y Y 20:29 GMT February 12, 2007
Yannaki...ARISTOTLE once said..." e zoi ine agouri kai e yinekes pothilata'...forex is similar when you look too far ahead...listen to Aristotle...

Athens Y Y 20:29 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
My trading recommendation is LONG USDYEN market and close at 130.00

For GBPUSD, longterm short towards 1.8000
for EURUSD longtern towars 1.2300

Yanni
http://www.myfxreport.com

Charlotte TH 19:58 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 17:27 GMT February 9, 2007
bought usdcad here in 1.1730's target 1.1860/1.1920.

Charlotte TH 10:16 GMT February 9, 2007
Charlotte TH 23:01 GMT February 8, 2007
1.3042 looks like a good high for the move since 1.2912 low.max seen to 1.3052.a close tomm below 1.2980 may well put an end to all further upside.
-------------------------------------------------------
close below 1.2990 can herald 1.25 by mid-spring and 1.18 by mid-summer

Charlotte TH 23:01 GMT February 8, 2007
1.3042 looks like a good high for the move since 1.2912 low.max seen to 1.3052.a close tomm below 1.2980 may well put an end to all further upside.

Charlotte TH 22:16 GMT February 8, 2007
it won't be surprising if the final message out of G7 is that the usdjpy and carry trade is the last thing on their collective mind.
================

usdcad may well be in resumption of the medium term uptrend with substatial slide in crude.

eurusd has got one more hurdle to start its journey in the earnest for 1.25 area.1.2980/90 cleared on the way down from 3044.let us see if 1.2910/20 is taken out post ZEW tomm.

LKWD JJ 19:45 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
syd acc
My theory is sterling weakened against USD on the back of the latter's strength
==================================
exactly the point! reaction to news is what makes the mkts not the news itself. not finished yet as my sell @92 was hit.
as far as $Y , same story.g7 has gotten longs looking over their shoulder as two way risk has emerged. what was once a buy and go to sleep might get pushed out of bed. what if a big hegde fund gets caught on the wrong side ala amaranth ? coulg get ugly....

Toronto MRC 19:45 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2007/02/12/D8N8BU600.html

bullish yen

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:42 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd: After the non event over the weekend the pair found $ strength again and broke the 2975-65 area with a sell signal taken there. Now with resistance around the 2960-70, 3000-3010 area and with main resistance at 3035-45 area for now. On the downside we can look at support around the 2930-40 and 2900-10 area for now. Will be moving stops to entry point on the test of the 2930 area for now. Position main limit will be around the 2810-20 area for now but will cut position lose any suspected bounce. We are in a tight range market which makes it very hard for trend traders to profit. You must be quick in protecting stops but patient enough to let the winners roll (easier said then done) IMHO. Peace and GT

Global-View 18:47 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Karachi,, we have a futures forum where that can be discussed

Karachi Crude Oil 18:09 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Hey U all great active members...
wat would u suggest abuot Crude Oil it is almost $2.20 dollors declined.... is there any further decreament....?

Sydney ACC 18:03 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:12 GMT February 12, 2007
Trading off M&A news without insight to the patriculars of the deal is fraught with dangers.
Finance for this deal may be entirely in USD who is to know. Vodafone have deals going on all the time. This one may be funded with 100% debt, another may be 100% equity. There may still be issues with the deal that would prevent a conversion at this stage.
The thing is news of such deals affects market sentiment.
I don't think this transaction would have gone through today. Look at EUR/GBP on the whole GBP was firmer today than the euro. If it had been transacted I would have looked for a higher cross rate.
My theory is sterling weakened against USD on the back of the latter's strength.

CA Jhon 18:00 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD short at 1.9480 with 1.9420 TP and 1.9530 SL

Sydney ACC 17:57 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:12 GMT February 12, 2007
W

madrid mm 17:18 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Japanese Investors Turn Bullish on U.S. Treasuries (Update2)

By Wes Goodman and Daniel Kruger

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Bond investors in Japan, the biggest sellers of U.S. government debt last year, are returning to Treasuries as the dollar gains and yields rise.

Fuji Investment Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $10.8 billion, boosted Treasuries in its global bond holdings to 40 percent from 30 percent in December, anticipating slower U.S. economic growth. Daiwa Asset Management Co., Japan's second-biggest money manager, is buying 10-year U.S. notes.

``The place to be is the Treasury market,'' said Akira Takei, a money manager at Fuji, a Tokyo-based unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's second-largest bank. ``The rally will resume in the bond market.''

Bloomberg

LKWD JJ 17:12 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:24 GMT February 12, 2007
NYC EL 00:14 GMT February 12, 2007
Cable could be volatile when London opens. Sunday times is carrying an article Vodafone has agreed to buy Hutchison's Essar moble phone system in India for USD 19 billion (GBP9.6 Bio).
Couple of months ago when Vodafone sold off part of their interests in a swiss mobile phone company to local interests cable rose a couple of cents.
Difficult to see this acquisition being funded entirely in rupees, bulk of it likely in USD and GBP so should prompt some cable selling at some stage.
=================================
info like this without specific buy/sell levels was worth 73 pips in cable for me. question is is there more selling to come or not?thank you acc!

LKWD JJ 17:06 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
should be boe hold not move

LKWD JJ 17:05 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
noticing since boe move that cable drops during europe session stays pretty flat for us and then rises in asian. most damage for today already done. then again hasent been to much us data to rock the boat either way lately. imho

to dr unken katt 16:50 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
cable is weak kind of , broke the TL last week, might bring the cableyen lower

to dr unken katt 16:50 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
cable is weak kind of , broke the TL last week, might bring the cableyen lower

mal semiji 16:48 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
hello malaysian

warsaw TOMi 16:45 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
dr katt,
if it does, than what?

to dr unken katt 16:42 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
closed mine , dayly looks like long struggle
macd ,rsi ,and stochs on the bottom of their value watch this line at 23660 if it breax or not

warsaw TOMi 16:38 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
dz kacik,u in as well?

mal semiji 16:37 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
anyone here from malaysia

to dr unken katt 16:36 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
TOMIK
mysle ze wstepnym celem linia 23660 , wyslalem mape

Houston SG 16:29 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Malayasia, expand on how you use Youtube. Thanks SG

warsaw TOMi 16:26 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
katt,if u there,nearby target for gbpjpy, am short since mng, tx

GVI Jay 16:06 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain BAH1 15:33 GMT February 12, 2007 - let me know if you received my email ssent to the other email address you sent me.

Porto Genius 16:02 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:39 GMT February 12, 2007
EUR/USD : The next target is 1.2908

Hi Qindex!
What do you think about aud/usd?
TIA

Athens MK 15:50 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: As long as price action stays below 1.9519 then pressure is for a move to 1.9406 area...

Hong Kong Qindex 15:39 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The next target is 1.2908*. It is likely that the lower barrier of the weekly cycle will be tested in one to two days.

Bahrain BAH1 15:33 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 15:26 GMT February 12, 2007
I sent you a 2nd reply on this, let me know if it is received okay.

So far nothing mate.

Mtl JP 15:33 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
mal semiji 15:30 - overnite range (history) or expected N/A range ?

mal semiji 15:30 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
anyone know range for usd cad ,,, tq

GVI Jay 15:26 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
I sent you a 2nd reply on this, let me know if it is received okay.

Bahrain BAH1 15:21 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Hi Jay.....
Did you got my e-mail please?

Good day

Hong Kong Qindex 15:17 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : the market has a potential to tackle the barrier at 1.2575* // 1.2588.

hong kong nt 15:16 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP 1.9437 may turn out to be this week's low..fwiw..

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:53 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 14:38 GMT //
appreciate ur answer!

Athens MK 14:38 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:11 GMT February 12, 2007

Below post was for Sofia

Athens MK 14:37 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
There are different ways to do this but my favorite has to do with volatility and momentum... Look at the longer timeframes to see your direction and learn the currency pair that you will trade. I like to trade one pair for long periods since it gives you a feel for what it wants to do...

An analogy I have used in the past is to think of a currency pair as a rubber band. It elasticity is determine by volatility and a couple other factors. It normally will stretch and snap back but a portion of the time it will snap. Learn to determine those points in price action and you are on your way...

This is my way, I am sure you will countless other ways so learn to see what works for you.

GLGT

Ankara OEE 13:53 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Polish Zloty and South African Rand are down by 1.14 and 1.45 against the JPY respectively (Mexican Peso -.23)

Gen dk 13:51 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 13:41 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 13:06 GMT February 12, 2007
St. Annaland Bob 09:32 GMT February 12, 2007
happy day,


buying EURUSD @ 1.2990/85/80/75/70 with stop below 1.2955 and target of 1.3048 and hopefully a break higher shows here as the only ""safe"" trade for the moment.

happy trades

*** averaged @ 1.2964 and looking to bail out around 1.2970, then we will see ... happy trades

*** off that trade with +3pips ... easy and will see what's next with EURUSD ... happy trades

GVI Jay 13:35 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
ZA, did you get the emails I sent you?

Stockholm za 13:16 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   

Thank you -madrid mm 12:22 GMT-
So how does those definitions relate to EUR/USD from
december 2002.... where every tech... had it as extreamly OB.. ??

Happy trades & have a nice day....
Over & out...................................

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:11 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 12:57 GMT //
hello - I read your analyses with interest as they provide the novice traders clues how to navigate and develop some understanding of how to step up to a trade instead of gambling
- - just interested how you match timing with price levels - I know this q is tough as many times I know a move is developing but since I'm too early I am washed away just to see it my way - just interested!

Gen dk 13:09 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 13:06 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 09:32 GMT February 12, 2007
happy day,


buying EURUSD @ 1.2990/85/80/75/70 with stop below 1.2955 and target of 1.3048 and hopefully a break higher shows here as the only ""safe"" trade for the moment.

happy trades

*** averaged @ 1.2964 and looking to bail out around 1.2970, then we will see ... happy trades

syd 13:05 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
A strong dollar is in the interest of the U.S. and exchange rates should be set by market forces, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in a newspaper interview published Monday.

In a translated interview published in German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Paulson said: "It's clear: A strong dollar is in the interest of our country. And the exchange rate should be determined by competition."

He added that the U.S. trade deficit "is a problem of global imbalances."

"I see that we have a low savings rate in the U.S.; however the U.S. economy is a big engine which is spurring global growth," Paulson was quoted as saying. "And other regions such as Japan, China and to some extent also Europe are lacking demand."

He added that the U.S. trade deficit is "no reason for us to intervene in the economy," that the U.S. economy is growing and that is what his country has to focus on.

"Everyone has to help to reduce global imbalances," Paulson told the newspaper.

Asked whether the weak yen is a serious problem for the global economy, Paulson said "the yen's value is freely set by competition and on the basis of economic fundamentals." He added that Japan hasn't intervened in currency markets since 2004.

Asked if the Chinese yuan is a bigger problem for the U.S. administration, Paulson said that the yuan is an issue: "I trust market forces. The reason why we discuss the yuan so intensively with the Chinese is that they are controlling the exchange rate and it cannot find its level freely on markets," Paulson was quoted as saying.

He added that he is "cautious to call for more flexibility of the yuan soon. But in the medium term, the target must be that we won't need to talk about it because the yuan's exchange rate will be set by markets."

The Chinese agree that there's a need for more flexibility of the yuan, but "the question is to what degree and in which timeframe" this can happen, he said.

"For this, we need a liquid and open capital market which is marked by intensive competition," Paulson told the newspaper. He added that transparency "means different things to different people" and for him, the "focus must be" the relation between banks and investment banks as well as hedge funds.

The U.S. interest regarding hedge funds is aimed at protecting investors and looking at possible systemic risks, Paulson said. He added that the government's task is not to tell financial markets which risks they should take and what a good or bad risk is

syd 13:01 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Barclays Capital looks for a downside resolution of EUR/USD's current range with key supports to be overcome being 1.2930-15 area (100 DMA and trendline) and 1.2860 below. When both these are cleared then the rate is on course for 1.27 and 1.23. EUR/USD now at 1.2960.

Athens MK 12:57 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$:Usually at this level we would have the next push down toward 1.9402 level when bias is to the downside.....

NYC Ed 12:36 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Morning (EST).. anyone have any feelings on CABLE today, I am long @ 9499 ??

Gen dk 12:24 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 12:22 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
1. A condition in which the price of an underlying asset has fallen sharply, and to a level below which its true value resides. This condition is usually a result of market overreaction or panic selling.

2. A situation in technical analysis where the price of an asset has fallen to such a degree - usually on high volume - that an oscillator has reached a lower bound. This is generally interpreted as a sign that the price of the asset is becoming undervalued and may represent a buying opportunity for investors.

1. Assets that have experienced sharp declines over a brief period of time are often deemed to be oversold. Determining the degree to which an asset is oversold is very subjective and could easily differ between investors.

2. Identifying areas where the price of an underlying asset has been unjustifiably pushed to extremely low levels is the main goal of many technical indicators such as the relative strength index, the stochastic oscillator, the moving average convergence divergence and the money flow index.

Oversold is the opposite of overbought.

Courtesy of Investopedia 8-)

Ankara OEE 12:14 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Polish Zloty and South African Rand are down by 1.10 and 1.20 against the JPY

Stockholm za 12:13 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   

Pling...Pling.............
Can you guys please explain to me HOW a currency can be
Overbought - Oversold..... ??

Atlanta South 12:06 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Mal semiji///
My method showing probable high @ 3056 & low of 2890
for today. These are for today only & are not
recommendations, but just my view based on my method.
Hope this helps. GT/GL

Napoli DC 12:01 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
long € here
deep oversold on hourly basis

U.K. J.B 11:58 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B 11:36 GMT February 9, 2007
where do we go from here, with so much bearish talk around today re stg. I feel the best r/r trade at present is to short euro/stg, big points. I feel the europe talk and the bearish stg post no increase in rates etc all priced in now. Also hitting some decent levels to long stg crosses. Short euro/stg 66.80 Tar. 6575. Decent hedge with so much uncertainty surrounding the G7 GL/GT.

Still more bearish comments again this morning for stg. M+A and benign inflation and RHS euro/stg fix at 11 am and still euro/stg struggles to rally.....

Ankara Jhemdel 11:43 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
london av 11:33

It may challenge the barrier 122.50-122.70 in coming 48 h.

london av 11:33 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
$/yen thoughts?

Athens MK 11:24 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 11:10 GMT February 12, 2007

We are watching that as well... Looking at the currencies you can see the reflection of that sentiment...

mal semiji 11:21 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
anyone know eur usd range for today ,,, tq

Makassar Alimin 11:10 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
usd index is heavily coiled now that break to either side looks too juicy to be missed, however, beware of false breaks

Sydney ACC 10:59 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 10:44 GMT February 12, 2007
You may find the following interesting reading regarding BoE Inflation report - article from yesterday's Times

Inflation will fall but interest rates could still rise

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article1364104.ece

Ankara OEE 10:57 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd

Hello there. I do not know whether you would agree but may be useful to monitor the currency movements of some emerging countries. This is to determine the direction, timing and scale of the JPY move Currently Polish Zloty and South African Rand are down .59 and .62 respectively.

Auckland trotter 10:44 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Now buying EUR/USD with over bought RSI on the short term charts. Just look at pips on offer at the moment and will see what develops.

Athens MK 10:44 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Here is a setup scenario that I thought I would throw out into the forum for input:

Looking for the pound to hit two buy areas -
1.9380 which is a strong buy as we have two channels that intersect with their lower channel trendlines at that area.

Wednesday is BOE Quarterly Inflation Report and if the numbers show a need for further tightening then technically cable will be in a good area for the jump back up into the 1.96 area...

Less likely but a possibility nonetheless is at 1.9275 area again is a buy for at least 1.9533 as a strong target with 1.9630 area as a good top....

For those that already bought at 1.946+ area we are at a double bottom that was momentarily pierced. It looks like the earlier rise to the 1.9732-1.9455 38.2% retracement held and signified further weakness in cable. The drop afterwards confirmed and now a test of the bottom is occurring.

At the moment price action is not favor to surpass 1.97+ as weekly charts are showing a bearish momentum but the week has not yet closed. Just something to keep in view.

Now a line in the sand is at 1.9193 area and another at 1.9093. The former is very important to hold otherwise system traders will start to bias their longer-term trades for lower levels.

A strategy one can do for this week is to buy at the above two levels:
1.9350-80
1.9275-85

TP:
1.9533 (1)
1.9630 (2)

Stop-loss is up to your R/R policies etc.....

HK REVDAX 10:34 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
It looks like the avalanche in Euro/$ has finally started and imo will last for another 2-3 days. Anything to add to this?

SINGAPORE GFX 10:32 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Thanks a lot Dr Q. Your analysis is very helpful and is very accurate . Thanks again

Hong Kong Mon 10:30 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Yes sir!

Hong Kong Qindex 10:29 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 10:23 GMT - It may take a few days. The timimg is hard to master.

Gen dk 10:28 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SINGAPORE GFX 10:23 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

The target 1.92xx is it for today/s trading target. Thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 10:10 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
İstanbul Sez 09:56 GMT - USD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.1677* - [1.1776] - 1.1875*.

Auckland trotter 10:09 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:16 GMT February 12, 2007

Still trying to get it right and understand the price movement of the EUR/USD for short term trades. Percentage day trade returns good, but looking to understand price movement on the short term.

Have been looking to use MACD and have problem finding suitable settings for short term trades and using it as a longer indicator.

Please reply on the help forum so that I can read them later, and, I do not wish to add unnecessary posts to the trading forum.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:08 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Mon 09:54 GMT - GBP/CHF : The current expected trading ranges are 2.4230* - 2.4359 - 2.4423. A projected resistant point is positioning at 2.4399*.

İstanbul Sez 09:56 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Mornings frd,
Hello Master Q,
After the correction of eur/cad and gbp/cad last week...
Would you pls share your view on usd cad pls ?
tia Sir.

Hong Kong Mon 09:54 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Any comment on GBP/CHF? Thank you

Hong Kong Qindex 09:38 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The odds are good that the barrier at 1.2951 // 1.2963* will be challenged.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:36 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 09:33 GMT - GBP/USD : See below 8.47GMT

SINGAPORE GFX 09:33 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Where is gbp/usd heading to. Thanks

syd 09:32 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
IMF’s Rato warns on carry trades after G7 Finance Ministers meeting

St. Annaland Bob 09:32 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
happy day,


buying EURUSD @ 1.2990/85/80/75/70 with stop below 1.2955 and target of 1.3048 and hopefully a break higher shows here as the only ""safe"" trade for the moment.

happy trades

Hong Kong Qindex 09:30 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 08:59 GMT February 9, 2007
EUR/GBP : The market is heading towards 0.6708.

Auckland trotter 09:16 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
I have the EUR/USD having bottomed around 1.3000 or around 1.2992 (38.2% fib) on the 1 hour 30 day chart. The price has been testing 1.3040 on this chart as a resistance level.

The UK market is yet to open (will give it about an hour to see what it does), and I have consensus fundamentals due out tomorrow overall in favour of the EUR.

Will see if the EUR/USD heads back to 1.3040, and at what rate, to see if I look for higher levels than 1.3040 on the up side for now.

I have trend lines on the 4 hour charts and longer saying the EUR has an up trend for now.

Could see some interesting bounces on the shorter charts once the price bottoms. Therefore placed low leverage positions on buy, and looking to place a major buy, with buys on the dips given other indicators.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:16 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD : The market is going to consolidate in the range of 0.9044* - [0.9141].

Ankara OEE 09:01 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:13 GMT February 12, 2007
Giant credit bubble behind yen slide: analysts


Although undervalued againts JPY no one knows whether it will taken down with those heading towards that direction when and if yen revalues.

Sydney ACC 08:57 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man, being a prolific poster, has not posted his views for a few days now. Hope he hasn't been scared away too.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:47 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The odds are much better when the market can penetrate through 1.9450.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:07 GMT February 9, 2007
GBP/USD : Heading towards 1.9275*.

Athens MK 08:42 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Below I had my comments from last week. Since then 1.9533 has been touched. This morning the cable went up to the first retracement of 1.9560 area which is the 38.2% line from the 1.9732-19455 drop...

Weekly charts are showing sell momentum picking up so swing rallies on the sell side are looking more profitable with each swing and should be bias accordingly.

Daily cycle is also in a sell momentum and could provide for another 150 plus pips lower before momentum starts to rollover.

Bias is still to buy again 1.9380 area and possible 1.9280-1.9330 area as well for a target once again of 1.9533.....

GLGT

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Athens MK 11:16 GMT February 9, 2007
My bias for cable reflects what I posted below:

1.9463 is my first area to buy - take profit at 1.9533 with partial postions and leave the rest to take further up.

Now if 1.9533 is not touched then price should drop to to the 1.9380 area where new majority buy positions should occur for 1.9533 TP.

One more area for new buys would be 1.9275 area as well with the above 1.9533 TP level.

Major stop and reverse position is the 1.9193 level...... Important...

This is a swing trade analysis an not a daytrader play....
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Gen dk 08:39 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 08:33 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
China's January Trade Surplus Swells to $15.9 Billion (Update5)

By Nipa Piboontanasawat and Yanping Li

Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China's trade surplus widened to $15.9 billion in January as exports gained by the most in 17 months, adding pressure on the government to let the yuan rise faster.

The gap, reported by the customs bureau on its Web site today, swelled by 65 percent from a year earlier. It was the fifth highest on record, exceeding the $15.5 billion median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

syd 08:31 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Sell AUD/NZD Now G7 Is Over

Go short AUD/NZD now that G7 is out of the way, says Deutsche Bank. Given that the RBA downscaled its inflation forecast earlier in the day while New Zealand's retail sales and housing data later this week are expected to be robust, DB suggests an initial target of 1.1075 with a stop loss at 1.1475. The bank suggests that the pair, which are now at 1.1302, could make it all the way down to 1.08 in the longer-term.

BRM 08:11 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
At this moment onwards it may be who gets out first against JPY

Bahrain BAH1 07:53 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
USD: US Treasury Secretary Paulson says strong dollar in US interest, Faz reports. (Bloomberg)

Ankara OEE 07:41 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
The GBP to a larger extend and EUR are overvalued against the JPY. Not USD. It is undervalued.

SINGAPORE GFX 07:33 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Anyone has any idea where cad/jpy is heading to. thanks

la fxt 07:26 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
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madrid mm 07:08 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
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RBA MPS: cuts forecast for underlying inflation to 2.75% for 2007 from 3.00%. To monitor data, adjust policy as required.FT: Vodafone has agreed to pay $11.1bn (GBP5.69b) in cash for the 67% of Hutchison Essar.

Asia's verdict Post G7: EUR/JPY hit all time highs of 159.00 from Friday's pre G7 closing of 158.33, as funds, UK, Swiss names pushed the pair up, after G7 makes no mention of JPY in the statement.

USD/JPY hit 2-week highs of 122.10, up from 121.72, as Cross/JPY, GBP/JPY bought in holiday thinned markets as Japan is away on National Foundation Day.

Topside capped by US investment houses selling, with focus now on Europe/UK's reaction to G7, some focus on mention of no 1-way bet on FX risks - implying carry trades risks.

Next focus 122.50 USD/JPY, 160 EUR/JPY, with stoploss orders slikley on break given that G7 did not make any strong weak JPY comments.

Interest at the moment still to buy USD/JPY on dips at 121.70-80, and EUR/JPY around 158.50-60, for a probably test of 122.50/ 160.

EUR/USD still capped ahead of 1.3050 triggers, talks of China, Asian CBs, Sovereign offers, but stoploss orders on break of 1.3055-60.

GBP/USD off Friday's 1-month lows after the sell-off to 1.9457, but could be weighed by the Huge Vodafone $11.1bln M+A.

AUD falls on dovish RBA statement - signalling shift to neutral bias from tightening bias. AUD/USD hit 0.7736 from 0.7770, AUD/ JPY lower, while EUR/AUD firm.

USD/CAD could be weighed by huge $6bln Hindalco-Novelis M+A.

All eyes still on Cross/JPY post G7.

Nikkei & JGBs closed for National Foundation Day holiday.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.75/122.10, EUR/USD 1.2988/1.3024, GBP/USD 1.9480/1.9542, USD/CHF 1.2467/1.2493, AUD/USD 0.7736/0.7778, NZD/USD 0.6813/0.6859.

Syd 07:02 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 06:48 GMT hi there, many didnt see that coming and wished they did , is the writing on the wall here and just wonder what the trigger will be ?

dc CB 06:48 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:13 GMT February 12, 2007
Giant credit bubble behind yen slide

So we've got some new Soros's in the making, depending on the accuracy of their timing and the depth of their pockets.

meanwhile Oswego:
Overnight
Lake snows moving south into northern sections and producing as much as 5 to 9 inches of accumulation in the most persistent bands. Lows around 15. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

meanwhile DC quivers at the thought of 6 plus Inches.

Syd 05:13 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Giant credit bubble behind yen slide: analysts
[11 Feb 2007]
TOKYO (AFP)

The more the carry trade succeeds, the more people it attracts, said Noriko Hama, an economics professor at Doshisha University in Kyoto.

"It tends to feed the depreciation" of the yen, she added.

No one knows the exact magnitude of the yen carry trade. Conservative estimates put its value at upwards of 200 billion dollars.

Some others estimate it to be much higher. Tim Lee of the US research firm Pi Economics reckons that the true size could be in excess of one trillion dollars -- equivalent to the annual national output of Canada.

He believes the yen is 29 percent undervalued against the dollar
http://www.servihoo.com/channels/kinews/afp_details.php?id=152507&CategoryID=47

Syd 04:46 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
China could hike interest rates 27 bps around March- April, with reserve ratio for banks likely hiked 50 bps in 1H07 and 2H07, says Citigroup economist Shen Minggao, as January trade surplus of $15.88 billion (vs $16.2 billion expected) likely to boost country's flush liquidity. Says data might reflect seasonal fluctuations caused by timing of Chinese New Year holidays. Adds, trade surplus could stop widening in 2H07 and may even narrow, if China maintains rate of CNY gains so far this year through 1H07.

LKWD JJ 04:08 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
have oders to sell $Y back @ 72 fridays close . this will show mkt is tired maybe catalyst for more selling.will wait and see as opossed to short near figure as these have meant nothing to this rally.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:51 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD Daily Cycle Quantized Levels (Adjusted) : ... 1.9251 - 1.9299 - 1.9346 // 1.9394 - 1.9442 - 1.9490 - [1.9514] - 1.9538 - 1.9586 // 1.9634 - 1.9682 - 1.9730 ...
The market is vibrating around [1.9514] with an expected magnitude of 1.9490 - 1.9538 for the time being in Asian session.

Sydney ge11ja 02:05 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:01 GMT February 12, 2007

something to keep an eye on for sure, last couple of tiems they have been vocal we have had some good moves. In particular 4th Jan!!!

Syd 02:04 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
RBA On Hold "For A Long Time To Come" - HSBC
RBA's statement on monetary policy plus revised forecasts indicate RBA wants to leave cash rate at 6.25% for "a long time to come", says HSBC's chief economist John Edwards; "there's nothing in the statement to warrant a further increase in the cash rate but nothing either to indicate a rate cut." Says modest increase in domestic demand plus fact export volumes growth yet to enjoy sustained acceleration leaves balance of risks in next 12-24 months towards some small reduction in cash rate.

Syd 02:01 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Verbal intervention on KRW likely to give way to "massive outright intervention" to speed up rise in USD/KRW, put floor under JPY/KRW, says ING; earlier, BOK official said bank was keeping close watch on JPY/KRW as cross again nears 9-year lows, called rate "worrisome." ING says sudden rise or fall in JPY vs USD typically leads to similar moves against KRW. Notes central banks in other countries have drawn lines in sand - Malaysia at USD/MYR around 3.50 and Thailand at USD/THB around 35; "where will the BOK draw the line in the sand on JPY/KRW?" it asks

USA BAY 01:51 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Syd

Syd 01:34 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 01:21 GMT to be quite honest AUD tends to bounce backwards and forwards from one piece of data to the other , so would be looking for range trading with a wide band, but for now it seems to have topped out

USA BAY 01:21 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

Based on the report , aud/usd is a short and the target 0.7500 is a reliable area to target in the coming weeks

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SYDNEY ACC,

Thanks a lot, shall keep an eye on cable in uk session.

Syd 01:02 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
RBA Statement Sets AUD/USD On Path To 0.7500 - DB


AUD/USD down at 0.7741 following RBA statement showing a "weakening in their rate tightening bias," making any change in monetary policy unlikely in 2007, says Deutsche Bank currency strategist John Horne. Expects AUD/USD to track toward 0.7500 in coming weeks as expectations of a midyear rate hike unwind; RBA's forecast of 2Q07, 4Q07 underlying inflation at 2.75% and 2Q08, 4Q08 underlying inflation of 2.5%-3% "indicate the most likely policy reaction from here is unchanged."

Sydney ACC 00:54 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:31 GMT February 12, 2007
Whether Vodafone comes to the market to buy USD aginst GBP or not I reckon the market will anticipate this move. Hutchison will want payment in USD, Vodafone will not be able to fund the entire acquisition in rupees, the Indian capital markets are not that big.
Furthermore there is another report in the same paper that Wednesday's BoE inflation report will be benign, although a further 25 bp increase is likley if at all. This is a change from last week when prior to the announcement of no change on Thursday the market had factored in two 25 bp increases.
So then take both news items together depending on your interpretation of the inflation report it is at least beither sterling neutral or negative in my view.

Syd 00:51 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD loses ground after RBA's statement on monetary policy; falls to intraday low of 0.7755 from 0.7775 pre-statement; RBA expects slower underlying inflation in the medium-term; tips 2Q07, 4Q07 underlying inflation at 2.75% and 2Q08, 4Q08 underlying inflation of 2.5-3%. "With the new forecast for year-ended underlying inflation it does suggest that the RBA is on hold this year and that's the simplistic view traders are taking at the moment," says Robert Rennie, currency strategist at Westpac Bank.

Syd 00:41 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
PBOC May Be Priming Market For Rate Hikes -BOA
PBOC's 4Q monetary report suggests it may be preparing market for potential base rate hikes, Bank of America says; report for first time points out need to "strengthen coordination between quantity and price-based policy measures" and "flexibly employing the interest rate tool". BOA sees "distinct possibility" PBOC may hike both base lending, deposit rates 27 bps in late 1Q or early 2Q, if inflation remains close to 3% or stock market continues to rise rapidly or there's strong rebound in investment, bank loan growth

Syd 00:38 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Australia's RBA predicts headline inflation peaked in 2006 and will slow to 1.75% by 2Q 2007 before picking up to 2.5%-3% by 4Q 2008, inside RBA's 2%-3% target. RBA's latest statement on monetary policy also forecasts Australia's GDP growth will likely be little higher than 2.2% on year in 3Q 2006. Forecasts assume world oil price, Australian dollar exchange rate remain steady and break in prolonged drought that has sliced 0.5 point off potential GDP growth.

USA BAY 00:31 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY acc,

So you expect cable to go down based on this deal. ty

Sydney ACC 00:24 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
NYC EL 00:14 GMT February 12, 2007
Cable could be volatile when London opens. Sunday times is carrying an article Vodafone has agreed to buy Hutchison's Essar moble phone system in India for USD 19 billion (GBP9.6 Bio).
Couple of months ago when Vodafone sold off part of their interests in a swiss mobile phone company to local interests cable rose a couple of cents.
Difficult to see this acquisition being funded entirely in rupees, bulk of it likely in USD and GBP so should prompt some cable selling at some stage.

Baltimore Zoltan 00:18 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
Porto Genius 23:51 GMT February 11, 2007 :

Thanks! I was wondering if I somehow got the time wrong.

NYC EL 00:14 GMT February 12, 2007 Reply   
cable any comments??
eur/usd any comment?