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Forex Forum Archive for 02/14/2007

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Philadelphia Caba 23:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
CT PT 23:55 GMT
whatever you want ..

CT PT 23:55 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Friends,
What's the target for EUR/JPY tonight?

USA BAY 23:50 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
WOW, GBP/JPY dropped 100 pips in 45seconds

Syd 23:49 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Japan GDP: Oct-Dec Deflator At -0.5% Vs -0.7% In Jul-Sep

Japan GDP: Private Capital Outlays +2.2% Q/Q
Japan GDP: Private Consumption +1.1% Q/Q
Japan Oct-Dec Real GDP Annualized +4.8%
Japan Oct-Dec Real GDP +1.2% Q/Q; Consensus +1.0%

Toronto MRC 23:49 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
yen? intervention?

Syd 23:28 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP Gdmg, obviously the pain hasnt been bad enough , yen is heading back to 115 and below all the moaning will cease


USD Post-Bernanke Slip Doesn't Signal New Ranges

USD's retreat in response to Bernanke's testimony doesn't signal shift into new ranges, say analysts. With strong U.S. data largely priced in, USD was looking for more hawkish tone from Bernanke to sustain or build on last week's gains; his remark inflationary pressures "beginning to diminish" caught market off guard, says Forex.com's Brian Dolan. Yet as comments digested, many analysts noting Bernanke comments actually more balanced than perceived. "The overall statement is more balanced," says RBS Greenwich Capital's Alan Ruskin, "and arguably provides few real surprises and will ultimately not lead to many changes in the market's long-term Fed projections."

Mtl JP 23:17 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
syd 02:26 Feb 14 / Toyota has 16 days supply of cars for dealer lots while big three are renting space for unsold inventory ( more than one year's worth). No shop stewarts at Honda or Toyota sitting around mulling the drafting of grievances.. bye bye bygone era

CT PT 23:10 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Anyone has any opinion on Euro/Jpy for tonight's range?

Syd 23:05 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   

ECB's Quaden: Yen, Yuan Too Weak Against Euro


The Japanese yen and the Chinese yuan are undervalued against the euro, European Central Bank Governing Council member Guy Quaden said Thursday.

"Their evolution isn't entirely in conformity, to say the least, with the state of current accounts of these two countries," said Quaden, who is also governor of the Belgian central bank. He was presenting a report on the Belgian economy.

The central banker sounded much less concerned about the dollar. He repeated ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's assurance that the euro/dollar exchange rate is "not in uncharted waters."

Quaden repeated the ECB's warnings against rising inflation risks, saying he had "nothing to add" to Trichet's call last week for "strong vigilance" in the face of price increases.

"We acted forward-looking, we acted gradually and we were able to master the inflation expectations according to our mandate without hampering economic growth," Quaden said, adding that these were "the lessons of last year and...(they) are useful for this year too."

He said oil prices are a key factor for inflation.

"Strong economic growth and the pressure it exerted on commodity prices - and especially oil prices...have strengthened inflation risks," Quaden said.

The Belgian National Bank 2006 report on the country's economy also included a summary on the international environment, stressing the need to "act in good time before shocks spread to the whole of prices and incomes."



LKWD JJ 22:44 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
thanks !

USA BAY 22:17 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
[JAPAN"S Q4 GDP] due at 23.50GMT is expected to show the economy rebounding...
[JAPAN"S Q4 GDP] due at 23.50GMT is expected to show the economy rebounding from tepid growth in Q3, supported by an upturn in consumer spending. Real GDP is f/c to grow 0.9% q/q or an annualized 3.7% in the Oct-Dec period, up from 0.2% q/q and annualized 0.8% in July-Sep. A release in line with f/cs would mark the fastest growth in nearly 3 years and an eight straight quarter of expansion. Consumer spending is seen as the biggest factor behind Q4's growth, in contrast to Q3 which was fuelled by exports. Private consumption is f/c to grow 0.8% q/q in Q4, recovering from -0.9% q/q in Q3. Weak consumption was the reason the BOJ kept policy steady in Jan. Hence, strong spending for Q4 would reinforce the view of a rate hike at the Feb or Mar meeting. Capital spending is expected to be strong and housing investment and public works spending seen recovering in Q4. Exports are expected to have eased due to the impact of the US economic slowdown with external demand contributing 0.1% to GDP growth, down from 0.4% in Q3.

GVI john 22:13 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
from GVI...

On Thursday, Japanese preliminary 4Q06 GDP will be closely scrutinized (see +0.9% qtr/qtr (+1.6% yr/yr) vs. +0.2% (+1.6%) in 3Q06. In Europe, the monthly ECB Bulletin is due. The U.K. will release January retail sales data.

LKWD JJ 22:07 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
is the gdp from jap tonight supposed to be a major mkt mover , and anybody with any rumors?

LKWD JJ 22:06 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 21:58 GMT February 14, 2007
LKWD JJ 21:45 GMT February 14, 2007
cable was up almost 2 cents. kind of a 1-2 punch between retail sales and bernanke. but there was no follow thru the rest of the day.

Pecs Andras 21:59 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
thanks

GVI john 21:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
NZ DEC. MONTH S/ADJ RETAIL SALES +0.7 PCT VS PREVIOUS MONTH (CONSENSUS 0.8 PCT)

NZ DEC. MONTH S/ADJ RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS +0.2 PCT VS NOV (CONSENSUS +1.0 PCT)

NZ DEC. MONTH ACTUAL RETAIL SALES +3.6 PCT VS YEAR AGO (CONSENSUS +5.2 PCT)

dc CB 21:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:45 GMT February 14, 2007

Bernanke made a very measured politically correct appearence...he's got to do it again tomorrow in the House (a roudy bunch).They'll probablly hammer him on wealth inequality, sub-prime loans and the housing market.

Last week the Fed lip-flappers had the markets very upset with their talk of needing to fight inflation...obnds went down, stock went down. The "lean" was that Ben would follow suit and so today, when he didn't everybody pushed the buy button, on stocks and bonds and every currency but the USD.

GVI john 21:56 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
NZ Q4 S/ADJ REAL RETAIL SALES +1.8 PCT VS Q3 (CONSENSUS +1.4 PCT)

NZ Q4 ACTUAL RETAIL SALES +4.6 PCT VS SAME QTR YEAR AGO (CONSENSUS +4.8 PCT)

Pecs Andras 21:45 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Anybody got NZ retail data? TIA

LKWD JJ 21:45 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
syd acc as oil came down it was "good "for us economy. usd runs up vs yen and euro and cable. now bernanke says inflation to moderate as oil comes down and bang usd is sold off. go figure...

NYC EL 21:31 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC Thanks for the Heads-Up, I will then run a chart for both. I see that weekly on eur/usd is up cable making it's move a little slower.
But does the Bernake speech have something to do with this?

GVI john 21:24 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Thu, Feb 15, 2007
23:50 JA- 4Q06 GDP
08:30 UK- Jan Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- ECB Bulletin
13:30 US- Feb Empire State PMI (see 10.2 vs. 9.1)
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 313K vs. 311K)
14:00 US- Dec TIC Flows
14:15 US- Jan IP- C/U (see 0.0 vs. +0.4%; 81.7% vs.81.8%)
15:30 US- Natural Gas
17:00 US- Feb Philly Fed (see 4.4 vs. 8.3)
18:00 US- Feb NAHB (see 36 vs. 35)

Fri, Feb 16, 2007
23:50 JA- Dec Tertiary Activity Index
07:00 GE- Jan CPI (final)
10:00 EZ- Jan Trade
13:30 US- Jan Housing Starts (see 1.6mln vs. 1.642mln)
13:30 US- Jan PPI (see -0.5% vs. +0.9%; core +0.2% vs. +0.2%)
15:00 US- Feb(p) U of M (see 96.6 vs.96.9)


Mon, Feb 19, 2007
US- Presidents Day Holiday

Tue, Feb 20, 2007
07:00 GE- Jan PPI
07:15 CH- Jan Trade
12:00 CA- Jan CPI


Sydney ACC 21:16 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:20 GMT February 14, 2007
NYC EL 19:41 GMT February 14, 2007

I think you need to ask yourself what do i think is going to happen to the USD. Yesterday's movements are predominantly dollar related. All currencies strengthened against the dollar, albeit sterling gained about half a cent on the inflation report notwithstanding the market had factored in a further 25bp increase before its publication.

I hear this morning Bear Stearns are recommending clients buy euro calls at 1.34 against the dollar - I guess they figure this is a break out. If thats the case a comparative figure for sterling is 2.00.

Baltimore Zoltan 20:48 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Cali! That's the time of the NZ data, right?

Global-View Research 20:44 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Re the NZD, Westpac Institutional Bank Morning Report

Cali mmm 20:42 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Can anybody tell me what is the current exchange rate from USD to Chinese Yuan ? TKS.

Cali mmm 20:38 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Baltimore Zoltan, report is at 21:45 GMT

Baltimore Zoltan 20:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Could anyone please post the time of the NZ retail sales data and the RBA monthly bulletin? Thanks!

Mtl JP 20:26 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 19:32 / interesting... the retail lag when wholesale drops, but instant/nextday when wholesale flies.

LKWD JJ 20:20 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
NYC EL 19:41 GMT February 14, 2007
Hi Guys, what do we feel about Cable 1.9631 today?
=================================
feeling a little sick as im short !!!

wyborg grey wolf 20:08 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD hiked today too much I could find out the reason who knows?

dc CB 19:50 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
even with crude finishing down a buck...the hour of power is showing that IMM players want out of their CD shorts.

they don't seem to want those JY shorts either.

NYC EL 19:41 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys, what do we feel about Cable 1.9631 today?

UK Alex 19:32 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Fuel bills could fall by 30%

UK Alex 19:29 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Last two BOE hikes were close together and it will take a while for the full effects to be felt. Gas & electricity prices are expected to fall 30% over next two years which will exert downward pressure on inflation. I'm not ruling out 5.5%, but I don't think it will go any higher.

UK Alex 19:26 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD expected to trade in 0.6930-0.6980 range today after reaching top of previously predicted range at 0.6940, says ANZ Bank in report; pair last 0.6951; says dovish comment from Fed's Bernanke following soft retail sales in U.S. has placed NZD uptrend on "much firmer footing." Market now closely watching NZ's Dec. retail sales data today, REINZ house sales data tomorrow, especially given further RBNZ tightening that has already been priced in; ANZ says a "big number" from either data release "could see the NZD explode."

RIC fxq 19:21 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 19:15 GMT

if in fact some of the economic projections for the EZ - see todays DIW for German GDP - are correct, the EB does not have that much room. not too many give credence to the impact of 4th qtr "beat the VAT tax hike" for German GDP. DIW diagrees.

Cannes Oil man 19:15 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
ECB , BOE , NZ , AUD , still have lots of room for further hike..
The FED however has moved very fast , in it's proactive rates management..
So from here, FED won't raise rates for awhile (if they don't cut once on the next meeting), meanwhile , conti's and the rest have their hiking to do..this will further pressure $ to the downside.
gl gt

Cannes Oil man 19:02 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
The big shuffle , I've been looking for is happening in the NZD.
Above 7020 , another large move will happen as banks, and models turn around in the NZD tiger.
Will make one of those moves with barely any retracements , as major name starts going long on the breaks.

We are now above 6925 , which was the break out area for the 6790 longs from a few days ago.
The next targets are .7030 , .7090 , an .7200..From there .74 , though there could be some profit taking in front of .72.

This should definitely put a big lead on further downside in NZDJPY , and most of the NZD crosses.

Rye,NY et 18:36 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...Since last October, the market has traded in two distinct short-term patterns: An uptrend to the high in early December and since then a Bearish Channel. I posted on Feb 6th:"Eur/Usd @ 1.2925....Yesterday's low hit a Bullish Trendline... we can look for, at least, a short-term uptrend, if not a return to the long-term trend." For the last week, daily lows have been hitting Bullish trendlines. With today's upmove , the market is now in the upper 10% of the Bearish Channel. The primary Channel Resistance comes in on Monday at 1.3215. A clear break of that level will confirm the Bullish view over the short to medium terms. If, however, the USD bounces up from that level, then we're back into the Bearish Channel with 5 cents to the bottom (ard 1.2715)....Just my view...GL/GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:32 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
manchester 17:33 GMT February 14, 2007
I believe I already have read my last posts. Peace and GT

Charlotte TH 18:28 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
cross driven euphoria has got eurusd up here at 1.3150 and gbpusd to 1.9640,also got some help from boe quarterly inflation report.neat r/r sells here.

St. Annaland Bob 18:16 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Napoleon, what's the difference if it's a central bank or AAA bank? ... money changes the prices, is it makes the difference who is behind the money? ... happy trades

PAR 18:12 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke as Paulson becoming weak yen fan. This opens long time target for BOJ and Kampo of 125.00. If the yen is not manipulated I am Napoleon .

UK Alex 18:09 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke repeats view of Fed and Treasury that the yen is not being manipulated. He reiterated the government's mantra that "exchange rates ought to be determined in a free and open market." He said "we don't see any manipulation or intervention in the value of the yen." He contrasted that with the continued large-scale intervention to prevent appreciation of the yuan

Athens MK 18:03 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Still at the office :)

Look for a retracement to at least 1.9570 down to 1.9530.... Look to buy at these levels for an eventual retest of 1.9630-40 area and if broken then 1.9730-50... Should put your stop-loss at your R/R levels, 1.9485 area should hold unless we have a false breakout...

If 1.9640-60 is not broken tomorrow then I would be concern that this is a false bull move and would look to short cable if 1.9485 has broken decisively with a target in the low 1.93++, that we can tell better by tomorrow.

USA BAY 17:52 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
A major US FX bank has issued a tech based buy recommendation for [EUR/USD],...
A major US FX bank has issued a tech based buy recommendation for [EUR/USD], with targets set at 1.3360 and 1.3670. As a short market gets squeezed amid lower US yields in the wake of Bernanke, the upside may be pressed further, but the emerging US recovery suggests the downside for both yields and the Usd will prove limited. Good sized offers are in place at 1.3150, with 1.3180 marking the key chartpoint.

St. Annaland Bob 17:47 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 15:07 GMT February 14, 2007

you get the tulips from me for val/day ... indeed, EUR currency looks in good shape currently ... will you share short and medium term ideas? ... happy trades

St. Annaland Bob 17:42 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Antwerp ML 12:14 GMT February 13, 2007

guess it will take lots of time to see you posting again, many in Antwerp wish to sell you as polished diamond ... happy trades

Cannes Oil man 17:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
OZI still targets .8050 in the weeks ahead , still .7700 for the break out point.

manchester 17:33 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
can anyone suggest a resistance level for eur/jpy?

RIC fxq 17:17 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
New York Bank Prop Trader 16:51 GMT

Cable in my book is also a massive sell -

Cannes Oil man 17:12 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Though i still prefer OZI , NZD , and GBP than Euro to long against the US$...(NZD best bargain , as i've been saying 6750---6830 stop all break 6740)..
if NZD hikes into next week, we might see .71.

Cannes Oil man 17:10 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
The next resistance on E$ is at 1.3370..Nothing much in terms of resistances from here to that level.(on longer time frames)
Though i would prefer that it takes a week to get there and makes another new high, than doing the 200 pips left in 1 session (a big move needs solid roots)..So far we've been bouncing very nicely on the 1.2850//1.2930 handle for the last few weeks , a good launching base for high retest and break out.

Oakland daimyo 17:02 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:42 GMT February 14, 2007
I understand very well. Nothing wrong w/ booking profits. The trick is to have next entry order in mind and the courage to pull the trigger after consolidation/ correction. The problem is that many traders find it very difficult to anticipate where buyers should step back in. Many traders watch price action in disbelief and sit frozen on the sidelines. Typical analysis / paralysis. Take a view on the market, place your bet, then let it ride. I use multiple trades to scale into & out of positions, this way I can benefit from intraday punts while maintaining med-term swing trades for big swing targets. Good trades.

UK Alex 16:59 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:45 GMT February 14, 2007
Thanks Oil man. Very informative. Do you have a target for Euro/CAD? Is there more upside to come or do you think the range will continue to hold?

Atlanta South 16:56 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Oakland
Will do. Tks

New York Bank Prop Trader 16:53 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
And EUR/JPY is going to head towards 150.00.

EUR = 1.2625
YEN = 118.80

EUR/JPY 150.00

New York Bank Prop Trader 16:51 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Roses are red, violets are blue, the market is extremely long EURO... how about you ?

There is no question that EUR has 'broken' higher in the past 24-48 hours. More importantly, the market has suckered - and I mean suckered- into buying EUROS. The EUR/USD may well go higher from here, perhaps 1.3175 (the 61.8% retracement of the 1.3360 to 1.2870 fall. We could even get up to 1.3250 (but I believe that to be all). What then? Instead of looking for that... wait for it, and sell EUR there with a sl at 1.3360 targeting a break below 1.2870 opening up 1.2450. NOW THATS A TRADE THAT WILL USHER IN THE SPRING PROPERLY!

Oakland daimyo 16:46 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 16:34 GMT February 14, 2007
Please read archive

Cannes Oil man 16:45 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   

Alex:
Here's the outflow on CAD post i made last week on GVI side :


Cannes Oil man 17:45 GMT February 8, 2007
Cross Border M&A Flows: All Cash and Cash and Stock Deals ($mln)
Yr-to-Date Yr-to-Date Total 2006
Jan 31 Wk Jan 31 Wk
Net Australia Flows +1,975.6 +2,039.6 +12,836.5
Net Canada Flows -7,444.6 -4,067.8 +68,467.2
Net Japan Flows -969.0 -1,322.0 -16,491.8
Net Eurozone to UK 251.2 214.4 52,513.2
Net US to Eurozone 11,128.7
Net Eurozone to US 3,777.7 3,560.8
Net US to UK 5,976.7 6,086.1 25,637.2
Net US to UK 5,976.7 6,086.1 25,637.2
Net Eurozone Flows -10,886.3 -10,989.9 -125,740.5
Net UK Flows +9,780.9 +8,474.6 +82,958.8
Net US Flows +875.3 -406.6 -72,922.7

Cannes Oil man 17:47 GMT February 8, 2007
Looks like CAD is reversing 2006 move , now having outflows.

Cannes Oil man 16:44 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:35 GMT February 14, 2007

I don't think $/CAD is a buy..CANADA is under performing US$ for the moment, CAD also has massive outflows , so it might continue under performing the US$ , still better to go against EUR or GBP , CHF against CAD atm than against the US$/CAD.
I've been shorting it everytime near 1.17--1.18 (last short was 1.1856 , but took out profit much too early), still prefer short than long (though not for GBP/CAD for exemple).
gl gt

UK Alex 16:42 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke says we're "much closer to full employment.. than we were a few years ago," though didn't offer figures on what that would look like. Jan unemployment rate was 4.6%, up from 4.5% the previous month. Central bankers see ongoing tightness of jobs market as supportive of growth, potential inflationary pressure.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:42 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 16:17 GMT February 14, 2007
Good to see your comments. I agree now that the range has been broken the top side has opened up for the bulls again on the eur/usd pair. After booking enough pips on this valentines gift from the forex gods I am not eager to give it back. I will wait and see how far it will dip if any. The indicators are in the O/B area but with no signs of pulling back yet. Main support is now found on the 3030-20 area for now IMHO. Peace and GT

Halifax CB 16:40 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:35 GMT February 14, 2007
I wouldn't think that 1.200 would be realistic, unless a federal election (or something equally substantial & untoward, like the Eastern US getting some nice weather) occurs.

UK Alex 16:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:24 GMT February 14, 2007
Anything to say on USD/CAD? Have we seen a washout of weak longs and is a target of 1.2000 still a realistic target?

Atlanta South 16:34 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo//
Can I get your view on next move for E/$? BTW: Great
reading @ pruden site. Tks & gt.

lugano fc 16:24 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:12 GMT February 14, 2007

tks for the correction and advise.
160 is my pain-border on this short if possible depending on tommorrow asian session the stop could be then 159.50. is not a daytrade i can stay on train long time, if pain border not touched....
every thing who goes up.....at once must also come down...

Cannes Oil man 16:24 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Well NZD$ finally proceeded to go in the least path of resistance..
Stops to entry on 6790 Long , the next target is around 7080 , from there a break to .72.

Same for GBP$ , as i believe this one will do a strong catchup move within the next few days.

gl gt




Hong Kong Qindex 16:24 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Daily Cycle : The market has potential to retreat from the upper barrier of 1.9621* // 1.9647.

... 1.9320 - 1.9353* - 1.9370 - 1.9395 // 1.9420* - 1.9454 - 1.9471 - 1.9487* - [1.9521] - 1.9554* - 1.9571 - 1.9588 - 1.9621* // 1.9647 - 1.9672 - 1.9688* - 1.9722 ... 

UK Alex 16:22 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 16:17 GMT February 14, 2007
Heard it was Russian names on the bid in Euro/USD yesterday and that they have been taking profit at 1.3150/55 today.

Oakland daimyo 16:17 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:58 GMT February 14, 2007
I would not be fooled by bounce. Dealers trying to hit "circuit breakers" to shakeout small specs & reload positions. Selling pressure still greater than buying pressure so would not suggest trying to catch a "falling knife". Expecting major level shift under 1.2369.

Also, Miami OMIL, feel free to rejoin the party train whenever ready, this move far from over. Establish core positions and punt intraday for lunch money. Note: those waiting on significant pullbacks will be frustrated by the speed of this trend now that C.O. has small fishes trapped.

Please archive my EURUSD reaccumulation analysis to gain perspective on C.O. strategy (med-term big swings). Good trades.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:14 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : My cycle references indicate that the market is consolidating between [1.3102] - [1.3127] - [1.3155]. The market is in a neutral state (i.e. it can still go either way).

Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:12 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 16:03 GMT February 14, 2007
If I am not mistaken that is a Dire Strait song and I would prefer "money for nothing and chicks for free" LOL.
Short term view eur/jpy: This pair is definitely in a bullish mode and with plenty of room to test and break the next resistance area (158.90-159). The reality of the market is that we don't really know where it is heading. We can only speculate and take the necessary measures to cover our profits and losses IMHO. Peace and GT

Gen dk 16:09 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Stockholm za 16:07 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   

Re…Theory ??
An instrument can only be overbought or oversold when there is a known quantity, which is used for reference to monitor distribution…
Base on the laws of supply & demand a currency can only be over / under Value...
The old indicators taken from the traditional stock market does not sit well with forex. Where a country macro/micro economy determines its currency value….
Why? - Because you cannot sit with the Fed Chairman or at G4 and start discussing with him/them that his currency is OB/OS……
Funny how we all go to the supermarket and look at/compare the price of Product for value...
Happy trades & have a nice day…..

lugano fc 16:03 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
...if eurjpy continues to go up then must say that reality is explaned with a police song "money for nothing" ... and i dont understand how that could be reality...

Hong Kong Qindex 16:02 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The current expected trading ranges are as follow :- ... 1.2960 // 1.2999* - 1.3051 - 1.3077 - 1.3103* - [1.3155] - 1.3207* ...

lugano fc 15:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT February 14, 2007

agree with you i also took stop away because i feel this is near the top so dont have stop on the short position. and till 160 dont even bother to have one. the carry trade idea is good but now eurjpy is up 15% in couple of month and with differential of 4-5 pct in interest (annual!!) this must be corrected at least some 7 pct.... let see what will come out tommorrow from jap

UK Alex 15:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF gave a nice bounce which suggests this dollar down move is a bit overdone.

UK Alex 15:56 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Cable stops tipped 1.9590/95

Athens MK 15:51 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Main target for the day has been touched at 1.9630-40 and if price action is in a bear trend then sell opportunities are abound at this level....

If this is new swing cycle then expect a pullback and then a renew attack on the 1.97+ level... Will look at numbers tomorrow morning..

GLGT

SLC TJ 15:48 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Thanks OMIL for the good words. Great trading.

Atlanta South 15:47 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL/
I give that suggestion a second. Gt

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:41 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Looks like we need some medicine here quick. !!!!NURSE!!!!!
Come on we finally get some kind of move on the markets and the last thing we need are food fights here. Please leave the differences for the range markets these moves do not come very often and even less often do we have the privilege to get profits from them. So let's keep the eyes and ears ready for the next profit train. Peace and GT

GVI john 15:39 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
OK lets get back to business. Thanks!

UK Alex 15:31 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke's comment about subprime mortgage delinquencies having gone up `appreciably' is being read by mortgage market investors as a sign that the pressure is off the Fed somewhat to raise interest rates, says Walt Schmidt of FTN Financial. "The subprime comment helps keep the pressure off to raise rates, as it has begun to come from some quarters," Schmidt says. A view that the Fed will remain on hold is getting favorable reaction from mortgage bond investors, as it means volatility will likely remain low.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:27 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd pair: The limit has been reached thanks to the latest surge on the eur/usd pair but no need to be greedy now so booking profits and await another dip to get in the market again IMHO. Peace and GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:54 GMT February 14, 2007
Next resistance is being tested now at 3080-90 and the next significant resistance is around the 3170-80 with heavier resistance around the 3210-20. Limit for this long position has been set for 3130-40 area for now IMHO. Peace and GT

jkt-aye 15:26 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Thank you GECKO, cheers.

Dallas GEP 15:22 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Well I was wrong about intial eur/jpy movement but I have taken some more short at 158.70. What has driven eur/jpy long mostly has been eur/usd longs. If this eur/jpy doesn't work as a short term trade I will carry it for a meduim term one.

Usd/jpy has at least temporarily broken short as I expected and eur/gbp has shorted from highs.

Bahrain BAH1 15:18 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
bad news for dollar.....seems we might see 1.3170 even 1.3190 before any move down. take care

Charlotte TH 15:11 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Haha. Pretty funny. I'm giving you guys valuable trade tips.

EU theEUROqueen 15:07 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Happy val.day Bob..

a very nice break indeed ..at the end

happy trade

Charlotte TH 15:06 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
shorted more gbpusd 1.9616.

Gen dk 15:03 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain BAH1 15:01 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Fed chairman Bernanke to Senate banking committee: there are signs US inflationary pressures are beginning to ease, though it will be some time before the Fed can be sure. Says the prices of oil and commodities are hard to predict and a key source of uncertainty. Still, the high level of resource use and tight labour markets are important risks to inflation

madrid mm 14:49 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
who will go first .......121 or 1.31 ...8-) I just hope it starts moving this freaking market !!!!! maybe Ben will have an effect...

madrid mm 14:38 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
poor Chrysler....Not only they fight against Japanese but they have to report in Euro to the head office in Germany.....
Talking of being squeeze on both sides......

van Gecko 14:37 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 11:11.. looks like another dead cat bounce cascading down from 1.99.. bad fengshui to be short of dollar going into the Chinese new year.. patient bulls may get lucky again down at 1.8989/1.8888 in Q1.. cheerios

"14:02 GMT January 22, 2007
.. if Euroophiles get 1.2738, patient GBP bulls may be rewarded with an equal opportunity down @1.9398.."



NYC Ed 14:36 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
.

NYC Ed 14:36 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
.

slv sam 14:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
closed all my long yen positions.
will go long yen again only break of 119.80!GT

CT Cris 14:29 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:06 GMT February 14, 2007
It is like riding a horse for the first time.up down up down.
this is the trading of the cable during europe.
take care.
=====
after riding bad horse ,will land smooth by boing 747 flt.
sell b4 data ..sell another if rise after data.

Spotforex NY 14:24 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
The state of Michigan lost so many jobs over the years that even the unemployment office is subject to close now......
source theonion.com

PAR 14:21 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Thanks to weak yen several thousands US jobs get cut at Chrysler .

melbourne DC 14:20 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
1420 GMT [Dow Jones] Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony Wednesday to the Senate Banking Committee and release of the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report are proceeding according to schedule, according to the committee. Bernanke's due to start speaking at 10:00 a.m. EST, even though many federal government offices delayed opening by two hours this morning following a snow storm. (WAL)

Charlotte TH 14:18 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
sold gbpusd 1.9566 with possible area for stopping it out at 1.9650.

Ankara OEE 14:14 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
It may be useful to read what Mervyn King said at a press conference in London today. Does the view underline an upside risk or otherwise medium term?

NYC EL 14:11 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Anyone tempting the eur/usd or Cable before Bernake ???

PAR 14:09 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Yen action indicating that japanese gdp will be much weaker than expected .

Atlanta South 14:00 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Any views on 3100-10 will capping the upside for Eu/$?
Tks & gt.

PAR 14:00 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
On the back of poor US retail sales- especially in electronics- more carry trades are being put on .

warsaw TOMi 13:57 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf 2410 stop 2370

madrid mm 13:49 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
BoE governor boosts sterling
The pound rose against the euro and the dollar on Wednesday after Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of England, said the outlook for UK inflation was highly uncertain due to energy prices. - Feb 14 2007 11:11
ft.com

to dr unken katt 13:47 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
kablovitz tp is 9650 or something
im very drunk this morning

warsaw TOMi 13:34 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
cable out of long 9571, squared

london phil 13:27 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
so euro breaks out of its 1 1/2 month range and still its quiet on this side

Atlanta South 12:46 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Out Eur/Usd short @ 3077 from 3101. Trading short term for
now.

Atlanta South 12:26 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Vail MC
Ref 11:35//Simple...my trading platform gave 3102 as the high,
so I entered short @ 1 pip below. 3102 is what my broker
was showing as the high. Gt.

Bahrain BAH1 12:06 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain BAH1 08:08 GMT February 14, 2007
Hi frnds...Good day to you all
Most stops been taken out on EUR$....get ready to short it....
or wait for 1.3100/10 and short it with stop at 25/30. GL.


+18 pips done. GL

jkt-aye 11:57 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Qindex ... many thanks.

RIC fxq 11:51 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:21 GMT

forget the UK trade deficit, its only the US that counts because of weak GDP growth compared to the "robust" growth in the EU and UK. Don't believe? Just read the "news" reports for the truth..

Athens MK 11:50 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Could be a pullback to the 1.9520+ area for another stab at 1.9620 area in NY session....

Only if 1.9485 is broken then look for a small reversal to play out....

GLGT

The Netherlands Purk 11:49 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:55 GMT February 14, 2007

SHI SHI.

warsaw TOMi 11:47 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Dom,
it isn't going to go there immediately, seems percolating,tough to tell, prefer to go short from higher lvls than sit on longside now.

warsaw TOMi 11:42 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Dom 11:39 GMT February 14, 2007

very tight,since I am running its tail all day.. 8)
gl/gt

Hong Kong Dom 11:39 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 11:31 GMT February 14, 2007
tried small long cable 9549 tgt around 9580-9600

------------------------------------------------
Have the same feeling, seems Stg have to see higher first, may I know your stop level. Thanks

warsaw TOMi 11:38 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
maybe they took his offer when I hit 99 bid..

Atlanta South 11:37 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
slv sam
Ref 11:30//Thanks for that & I will keep tp level open to
that suggestion. Gt

Vail MC 11:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta, how did yu sell 3101 when the high was 3099?

warsaw TOMi 11:31 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
tried small long cable 9549 tgt around 9580-9600

slv sam 11:30 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:26 GMT /
better to take profit at 1.3030!GT

Atlanta South 11:26 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Short E/$ from 3101 stop @ 3131 tp @ 3061. Gt

PAR 11:21 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
BOE King seems to forget that the UK has a huge and ever increasing trade deficit while Japan has a gigantic surplus . King is partying while his friends are paying the bills .

Hong Kong Qindex 11:21 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading ranges are [119.81] - 120.25* - 120.48 - 120.70 - 121.15* // 121.48

warsaw TOMi 11:17 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
cable seems to percolate, may touch 9600

PAR 11:16 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
BOE King G7 should not ask anything from Japan . High interest rates and strong currency good for the UK but bad for Japan . What you say depends on where you sit .

jkt-aye 11:11 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Gecko 08:44 ... Good day. Does she need parachutes ?

Qindex ... anything on jpy front ?

warsaw TOMi 11:07 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
cable square 60 choppy market, there will be time to go short again

Hong Kong Qindex 11:07 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges are 235.83 - 236.69* - [238.42]

St. Annaland Bob 10:55 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   

greatest wishes to all people celebrating the Chinese new year, happy new year to all of you.

St. Annaland Bob 10:54 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 16:23 GMT February 13, 2007
Bob, are you still in short usdcad?

hi TOMi, no ... am sorry for the late reply ... happy trades

Hong Kong Qindex 10:53 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market has a good chance to tackle the daily cycle upper barrier at 1.9621* // 1.9647 in the New York session.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:51 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Bratislava 10:45 GMT - I use it for my own reference only. [x.xxxxx] is usually from the center of a projected series and those levels mark with star are quantized levels or significant levels.

Bratislava 10:45 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 10:37 GMT February 14, 2007
Hi,
can I ask what *, or [] mean when you put them into your R/S readings ?
Thanks by the way for info!

Hong Kong Qindex 10:37 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : If the market can overcome the projected resistance at 1.9554*, GBP/USD will head for 1.9621*.

warsaw TOMi 10:37 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
short cable 9555, stop 9585, target open

Hong Kong Qindex 10:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : It is likely that the market has hit the daily high around 0.6716*.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:32 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The daily directional indicator is (1.9344) - 1.9480* - 1.9521. The market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 1.9521.

Plovidv Gotin 10:20 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
E/$ 1.3100 is the last tgt from 1.2865 and defence line in front of LTTs 1.3516&1.4110. If break cud see today 1.3109/22/57/79/85, 1.3211.If hold 1.3027 at least.Max 1.2850.GL> ay.

warsaw TOMi 10:12 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 10:06 GMT February 14, 2007

8 hrs and daily time scale.gt

Oakland daimyo 10:12 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
To my Wyckoff friends: ReAccumulation in EURUSD has been confirmed with the passing of all 9 buying tests see sidebar 2 http://www.hankpruden.com/nineclassic.pdf
Please read archive for big swing targets. For this round, expecting to see 1.3171 upside triangle target (4HR chart) reached. I suggest FX participants focus on weekly, daily, and 4 HR charts for direction as real-money players looking to play weak hands to strong (shakeout small specs). I especially recommend the 25 x 3 P&F chart to help avoid whipsaws and being shaken out of core positions. Good trades.

UK Alex 10:11 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
How not to invest in property

Hong Kong Qindex 10:10 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.5234* - [1.5408] - 1.5582*

Hong Kong Qindex 10:08 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/AUD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.6659* - 1.6742 - 1.6826

Gen dk 10:08 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland trotter 10:06 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 09:58 GMT February 14, 2007
I guess you are seeing the EUR/USD similar to me. Just don’t understand on what time scale and references you use. Mine are given on previous posts..

Just like to learn from other perspectives.

Glgt.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:06 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the current expected trading ranges are [0.6668] - 0.6708* - 0.6729

Hong Kong Qindex 10:03 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : the current expected trading ranges are 1.6205* - [1.6253] - 1.6302*

Hong Kong Qindex 10:00 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The current expected trading ranges are 156.82* - [157.91] - 159.00*

warsaw TOMi 09:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
trotter, not much to loose, plenty to gain, top of the range, as I see it..

gl/gt

Hong Kong Qindex 09:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The current expected trading ranges are 234.97 - 235.83 - 236.69*

Auckland trotter 09:57 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 09:51 GMT February 14, 2007
“€urusd sold 3099,stop 3022, target 2888.”

Interested in your reasons for your trade.

warsaw TOMi 09:51 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
stop 3122.

warsaw TOMi 09:51 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
€urusd sold 3099,stop 3022, target 2888.

Portugal camisa 09:46 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
CMS down anyone?

Auckland trotter 09:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
UK market has opened, yet to settle down. I have the price down not having broken 1.3094 ( ref: my previous posts).

Looking at the daily pivot of 1.3012, which also corresponds to the SMA(100) on the 1hr 5day chart.

“The trend is your friend”, but there are pips to be made within the range of the trend, as long as there is an understanding of the trend, and the factors effecting the market within the range.

Gen dk 09:34 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

warsaw TOMi 09:31 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
cablesold 9525 stop 9545 target 9330

Athens MK 09:22 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Just food for thought - If you take a chart and overlay GBP/$ with USD/CAD take a look at the correlation. Now it is interesting to see if they will crossover and then just for grins see what the currency pairs have done in the pass when they crossover with each other... Try it on the 4 hour and daily charts...

Now I throw this out for traders that have not look at currency correlations in the analysis. It is just one way at looking at cable...

Hong Kong Qindex 09:22 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The current expected trading ranges are 1.2398 // 1.2420* - 1.2449 - 1.2464 - 1.2479* - [1.2508]

Hong Kong Qindex 09:20 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : the current expected trading ranges are 1.9487* - [1.9521] - 1.9554*

Hong Kong Qindex 09:17 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD The current expected trading ranges are 1.3011* - [1.3062] - 1.3114*

warsaw TOMi 09:15 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
if that wud be all for €uro, then, short from 3105,stop 3120 target 2888.

Charlotte TH 09:11 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
short audusd 0.7826 for 0.7750.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:55 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Daily Cycle Quantized Levels : The distribution of quantized levels are as follow :- ... - 1.2388* // 1.2422* - 1.2456* - 1.2489* - [1.2506] - 1.2523* // 1.2556* - 1.2589* ...

van Gecko 08:44 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP.. time for her majesty to showcase her February Flop..

Athens MK 08:41 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 08:29 GMT February 14, 2007

If that is the bottom in place yes I would look for 1.9630-40 as a major target area.....

I still would have prefer 1.9380-40 area to have been touched first but hey the market moves on it's own path :)

PAR 08:40 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
US investment banks buying USDYEN aggresively ahead of Bernanke and especially - the big fan of a weak yen - Paulson .

malaysia 08:38 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
how gbp/usd ? i think go down shortly

St. Annaland Bob 08:36 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   

""GBP/USD:-False break at 1.9440 and the move stopped straight at 1.9405 from where cable bounced back. It is not clear yet that cable has made a bottom, but one will have to be cautious. Any break above 1.9525 will signal that a bottom is in place in the short-term.""

warsaw TOMi 08:29 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 08:25 GMT February 14, 2007

if cable low was to be 9400, then we should had for 9610 and 9800 ltr?

Auckland trotter 08:29 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 08:20 GMT February 14, 2007
With the opening of the EUR market the level of correction appears to be the I8 pivot on the daily chart of 1.3094.

Fundamentals due out GMT 13.30 give consensus figures in favour of the USD.

We shall see what happens with the opening of the UK market.

Athens MK 08:25 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Still early but system traders have been buying since 1.9460 down till the 1.9400 low for new targets of 1.9640 since 1.9533 that I've been targeting several days now has been reached...

1.9380 was the circle target with 1.9340 as the mid-point all the way down to 1.9275.... These area's can still be touched since there will be news to temporarily increase volatility in price action so be careful and use it to your advantage.

If 1.94 is the low on the swing cycle then look to buy on retracements to enter in a more favorable position.

Remember 1.9193 if broken will increase pressure to reach 1.88....

Auckland trotter 08:20 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
I have had general up pressure for the EUR/USD from the longer term charts. Now looking at a point of correction with the shorter charts showing over bought on several indicators.

madrid mm 08:19 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
indeed....talk is cheap 8-)

Haifa ac 08:15 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:09 GMT //They do NOT ring a bell at the top.
The more people talk-- the longer the turn around may last.

madrid mm 08:09 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Euro Rises as ECB's Liebscher Says the Bank Is Concerned About Inflation

Pound Volatility Rises to Seven-Month High Versus Euro as Inflation Slows

Yen to Gain, Carry Trade to Unwind as U.S. Economy Slows, Dresdner Says

bloomberg

Bahrain BAH1 08:08 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Hi frnds...Good day to you all
Most stops been taken out on EUR$....get ready to short it....
or wait for 1.3100/10 and short it with stop at 25/30. GL.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:54 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd pair: With the main resistance taken out stops on the long taken earlier are moved now to the 3020-30 area to protect profits (which is now main support). It is now buy on failed dips until the main support is taken out. The pip raider longs have proven to be better than expected. Top side resistance and range have been (for the time being) broken. Next resistance is being tested now at 3080-90 and the next significant resistance is around the 3170-80 with heavier resistance around the 3210-20. Limit for this long position has been set for 3130-40 area for now IMHO. Peace and GT

Sydney ACC 07:50 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 03:03 GMT February 14, 2007
Dallas GEP 02:44 GMT February 14, 2007
Yesterday's data was very euro positive. Articles in British press point in that direction also.
I think market may try to push it up a little higher at the UK open. Try to take out the stops at 1.3080.

Anyione see this going higher in the short term?

Hong Kong Qindex 07:36 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the moving targeting range of 1.3046 - 1.3084.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:34 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the moving targeting range of 157.84 - 158.61. The upper barrier is located at 158.71 // 158.93 and the lower barrier is expected at 156.76 // 156.97*.

Daily Cycle : ... 156.10 - 156.39* - 156.54 - 156.76 // 156.97* - 157.26 - 157.41 - 157.55* - [157.84] - 158.13* - 158.28 - 158.42 - 158.71* // 158.93 - 159.14 - 159.29* - 159.58 ...

Dallas GEP 07:24 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Sorry 158.70

Dallas GEP 07:24 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
pip 151.70

Athens MK 07:13 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Good morning.... Cable is now in a zone that is a prefer selling area 1.9483 until 1.9520 for profit 1.9380......

Now due to the BOE report out later on the TP level could be in trouble so look to take profit earlier for those intraday traders...

Hong Kong Qindex 07:12 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The moving targeting range is 0.7768 - 0.7826. The upper barrier is located at 0.7821 // 0.7834 and the lower barrier is located at 0.7701 - 0.7715. A swing trade may work.

madrid mm 07:07 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi
On FX, focus is still on the US Treasury coupons of almost $27bln hitting the markets on Feb 15, with USD/JPY falling sharply from 121.30 after fixing to 121.05 low, set at 121.30. Some focus on US Democrats letter to Pres Bush to initiate actions on weak JPY, CNY.

Talks of large selling in USD/JPY, EUR/JPY from Japanese custodian, agricultural and mega-city banks, with selling possibly linked to the huge coupons. Interesting talks of huge bids in USD/JPY at 121 lows from Kampo, Swiss surpranational, real demand, Japanese importers and US investment houses absorbing the selling interest.

USD/JPY recovered and edged up toward day highs again, helped by rebound in EUR/JPY after the choppy stoploss related buying in EUR/USD.

EUR/JPY rallied to highs of 158.25 earlier in the session as weak stops were hit above 158.20 on back of Japanese buying, but stoploss hearing offers coming in at 158.20-50, with talks Asian CBs, China and Japanese agricultural, custodian banks amongst the sellers.

Interesting moves in EUR in afternoon trading, with EUR hitting stoploss/ options above 1.3050 to 2-week highs 1.3057 b4 reversing to 1.3027 in the twinkle of any eye. Hearing still very good offers ahead of 1.3050-60, speculation of Asian CBs, EuropeansNCBs offers there, though talks of stoploss orders on break of 1.30, the level yesterday where Asian Cbs, Russian said to have bought large.

NZD rose on Cullen comments on strong domestic demand. GBP eye BoE Inflation report, while all eyes on Fed Bernanke, Paulson today, US retail sales. SEK eye likely Riksbank rate hike today.

Nikkei hits fresh 7-yr highs of 17,789, +169pts.JGBs little changed, 10-yr yield unchanged at 1.735%, on BoJ Fukui.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.06/121.36, EUR/USD 1.3026/1.3057, GBP/USD 1.9455/1.9495, USD/CHF 1.2454/1.2477, AUD/USD 0.7786/0.7808, NZD/USD 0.6888/0.6915

madrid mm 07:05 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
15:00 gmt
United States Fed's Bernanke testifies before Senate on Monetary Policy

Hong Kong Qindex 06:54 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : A projected supporting point is located at 1.1636. The market has potential to tackle the upper barrier at 1.1706* // 1.1723. The upside target is 1.1752.

Sydney ACC 06:53 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Singapore fs 06:48 GMT February 14, 2007
I know this is the twilight zone, time between markets, but AUD/NZD has held above the figure for 40 minutes now, good indication of support.

Singapore fs 06:48 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 06:45 GMT February 14, 2007
Wow, very nicely said... I also felt that it is on its path to move upward...

Sydney ACC 06:45 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 06:35 GMT February 14, 2007
At this point in time I think it has some work to do to get through 0.7820, however, given the rally last night in New York it is looking as though it will go higher.
AUD/USD last night traded arounbd 7730/40 until early New York, after the trade data it began its ascent initially to 0.7760 then towards the close it got to 0.7790. Throughout today's trading it fell to 0.7785 but it has been quiet today.
My bank is calling AUD up to 0.7900, then again 24 hours ago they were calling it down to 0.7600.
I believe we will see it higher tonight, it will break through 0.7820. Its just looking too strong to fall back tonight.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : the moving targeting range is 120.83 - 121.44. The market has potential to tackle the lower barrier at 120.48 // 120.63. Projected resistant points are located at 121.60 and 121.92/122.02.

SINGAPORE GFX 06:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

AUD/USD, short at 0.7800, do you think it has topped or more upside. thanks


CT Cris 06:34 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
eur.jpy is good to trade for today
buy @ 157.90-158.00 tp 158.40-50
then sell again and tp at 157.80-70.
=====watch my first part of the call if correct then act the second part.

CT Cris 06:06 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
It is like riding a horse for the first time.up down up down.
this is the trading of the cable during europe.
take care.

CT Cris 06:01 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
better to deal with my calls after 0700 gmt.

CT Cris 05:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
eur.jpy is good to trade for today
buy @ 157.90-158.00 tp 158.40-50

SF Tunate 05:56 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Thank you Dr. Q

Macau PIP 05:52 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:44 GMT February 14, 2007

Where is your stop loss order?

Hong Kong Qindex 05:22 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
SF Tunate 05:08 GMT - GBP/USD : I am bias on the downside when the market is trading below [1.9521]. Sell on rallies is the preferred rading strategy.

SF Tunate 05:08 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Hi Dr. Q
Would you please share your view on GBP/USD. Thank you.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:54 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 04:51 GMT - EUR/JPY : I am bias on the downside when the market is trading below [158.13].

SINGAPORE GFX 04:51 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, could you please share your bias for eur/jpy please. thanks

Sydney ACC 04:50 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 04:06 GMT February 14, 2007
looks like someone tried to push it higher, failed, now going lower and youyr way!

Hong Kong Qindex 04:45 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : It is not a good sign when the market fails to overcome the projected resistance at 1.3061*. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3031*. In the mean time the market is going to consolidate between 1.3031* - [1.3046] - 1.3061*.

Dallas GEP 04:06 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Asian trading session sometimes had to figure out....usually most of the activity is early in session. getting a little action here in mid-session on eur/jpy and usd/jpy.

Sydney ACC 03:58 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:50 GMT February 14, 2007
To be honest I am short and would prefer your 1.2980. Just not as bullish on USD as I was 24 hours ago.

Dallas GEP 03:50 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
THX ACC, it wouldn't bother me to see your 1.3080 first if that indeed is in the cards.

Dallas GEP 03:49 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Bay, momentum on usd/jpy is SHORT

Sydney ACC 03:48 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:44 GMT February 14, 2007
Best of luck with your possie.

USA BAY 03:44 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

What do you think of usd/jpy, a test of 120.90 or 121.80. thanks

Dallas GEP 03:37 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Bay if GBP/USD shorts at a FASTER rate than eur/usd then eur/gbp will LONG. What got eyr/gbp to this 6895 level from the 6850 level a few days ago was EXACTLY that scenario. GBP/USD shorted further than eur/usd did.

USA BAY 03:30 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Gbp/usd still looks like it may go to the 1.93xx levels, then eur/gbp still a short???. thanks

Dallas GEP 03:28 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Well ACC...if both eur/jpy and eur/gbp short THEN 3080 euro would be difficult but as usual nothing would surprise me LOL.

Sydney ACC 03:03 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:44 GMT February 14, 2007
Yesterday's data was very euro positive. Articles in British press point in that direction also.
I think market may try to push it up a little higher at the UK open. Try to take out the stops at 1.3080.

Dallas GEP 02:55 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
ACC, eur/usd range will be tight IMO. LOW probably will be 1.2980 range for next few sessions

Sydney ACC 02:49 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:44 GMT February 14, 2007
What level do you see EUR/USD moving to, please?

Dallas GEP 02:44 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Took eur/jpy short 157.93 for the follwing reasons:

1. I beleive eur/usd to be near top of it's range
2. Eur/gbp is near top of it's range
3. I expect more YEN buying across the board

target is 156.80

syd 02:26 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
The U.S. Democratic Party leadership Tuesday sent President George W. Bush a letter asking him to consider imposing sanctions on Japan and China for keeping their respective currencies weak, Kyodo News reported.

The Democrats asked Bush to start an investigation on the matter, and also called on him to present Congress within 90 days a plan to narrow the U.S. trade deficit, the Japanese news agency reported.

Porto Genius 01:51 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Thanks! ;)

syd 01:49 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Porto Genius 01:43 GMT Hi, Aussie should by all accounts turn down from previous highs if it gets there, good selling around 78 could breach so for now holding off

Porto Genius 01:43 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
syd 01:15 GMT February 14, 2007
MARKET TALK: CBA Chief Says Next Rate Move Likely A Cut

Aud/usd possible near the top, right? ;)
Thanks!

syd 01:15 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: CBA Chief Says Next Rate Move Likely A Cut

With the largest mortgage book in Australia, Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) boss Ralph Norris says he expects central bank to keep rates steady over the next few quarters, heartens homeowners with media briefing comment that he expects the next rate move to be down. Adds CBA isn't seeing any "stress" in its mortgage book, with 35% located in struggling NSW, and total impaired assets falling as well. (

Cali mmm 01:07 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
ACC Sidney, Thank you for your reply. Just read it as I was out of office. Rgds.

Gen dk 00:35 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gold Coast Martin 00:33 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY....from GVI...may shed some light...done my post quota for the year....g/l to all..

Gold Coast Martin 15:58 GMT January 30, 2007
GVI Jay 15:39 GMT January 30, 2007
Yes Jay...market is too pre -occupied with a weak yen and following a predictable path...carry trade unwiinding this year so far , indicating that the degree of appetite in carry is loosing its momentum as OTHER investment avenues and investments will be promoted in 2007 by jap banks towards retail investors....so carry vehicle will have to compete with other investment vehicles in 2007 moreso than in 2006. The large 400bill yen investment fund everyone is talking about , is basically Pension funds and and less risk will be taken with them when investing....so less risk and less return for these funds as they mainly will go into JGB bonds and other local asset classes...lousy return but Jap pension fund managers still manage with a macro economic view that currently is optomistic towards a domestically -led jap economic recovery...

Sydney ACC 00:26 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 00:04 GMT February 14, 2007
To be honest I have heard nothing directly, I am trying to verify what Sydney ge11ja posted below.
The Japanese are notorious at this time of the year for repatriating funds for balance sheet window dressing, furthermore there are some large coupon payments and redemptions. All things being equal over the next six weeks one would have to expect some amelioration of the negative yen flows seen to date. This may not, however, reduce the demand for other currencies against USD to enable investments to be made to third countries or territories.

SINGAPORE GFX 00:18 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Could anyone kindly comment on cad/jpy please, is it time to short or more room for upside. Thanks in advance.

Gold Coast Martin 00:04 GMT February 14, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:51 GMT February 13, 2007
Last years Koizumis reforms of Jap Post office ( which hold majority of jap pension and savings funds) in an attempt to encourage domestic investment and boost domestic consumption has been the start....These days , Jap banks are been encouraged to offer more domestic driven long term strategies ( combo of jgbs, stocks and indices) as another alternative to the easy to sell "carry trade"strategy....large jap banks these days are stressing risk factor more in carry trade stretegy than ever before....it is propably at the Jap govenrments insistence....and i hear there are ïncentives" offerd to these banks by the Jap govnt for dong so...Nothing is done without ""incentive ""...so i guess these "ïncentives" are the administrative changes you are reffering to...

 




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