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Forex Forum Archive for 02/15/2007

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dc CB 23:58 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 23:38 GMT February 15, 2007

Nick Leeson.

ABHA FXS 23:51 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
SHORT AUDUSD 0.7835 STOP 0.7850 T 0.7710
SHORT EURJPY 156.74 STOP 156.90 T 155.40

UK Alex 23:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Anyone selling Yen tonight?

Cannes Oil man 23:42 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:54 GMT February 15, 2007

Definitely , if yen starts going on real rampaging , lots of ccy's will be hurt , and NZD is one of them along, aud, eur , gbp, usd..
Could have a very nice move in front, but till i see 6740 , the nzd is still too "alive" to short...Can jump back pretty fast as it did this week..
That one can go up as fast as down, not many ccy can do this..

Hong Kong Qindex 23:40 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still valid :

Hong Kong Qindex 16:14 GMT February 14, 2007
EUR/USD : My cycle references indicate that the market is consolidating between [1.3102] - [1.3127] - [1.3155]. The market is in a neutral state (i.e. it can still go either way).

RIC fxq 23:38 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 23:11 GMT

sorry to be slow responding - cocktail hour.

PANIC! or perhaps a hedge fund in a meltdown ala LTCM. far fetched perhaps but I could and very well may happen.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:37 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 23:30 GMT - EUR/USD : I will update my daily cycle analysis a few hours later. In the mean time my monthly cycle charts indicate that the market is trapped in the range of 1.3103* - 1.3194*.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Heading Towards [1.9353].

SINGAPORE GFX 23:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX

DR Q,

What is your bias for eur/usd tomorrow. thanks

Charlotte TH 23:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 23:24 GMT February 15, 2007
.6699 charlotte, why?

---
my guess for the low tomm.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:26 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : 2.4036 is a minor level and a significant level is 2.3972* - [2.3979].

USA BAY 23:26 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Thanks a lot DR Q

warsaw TOMi 23:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
.6699 charlotte, why?

West Ham oldgroyne 23:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
.6699

Hong Kong Qindex 23:23 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:12 GMT - GBP/JPY : The barrier is 231.95 // 233.25*. When the market is trading below 232.75 the bias is on the downside. I would expected the market will move faster down to 230.66 after the market can penetrate through 231.95.

Charlotte TH 23:19 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
can some friend work out the eurgbp rate with gbpusd at 1.9420 and eurusd at 1.3010?tia.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:18 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : As long as the market can trade above 1.2255, it will tackle 1.2559 again.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:16 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 23:06 GMT - USD/CAD : The market will be stabilized if it can trade above 1.1627 - 1.1629* in the Asian session.

USA BAY 23:12 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

In your opinion has gbp/jpy effectively overcome the 232.75 level and your opinion on gbp/chf please. my system shows 2.4042 as the next level. thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 23:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
NYC TC 23:06 GMT - GBP/JPY : It is moving ahead of everything so one may have to stop and reverse when the market is trading above 233.25*, just in case.

LKWD JJ 23:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 22:48 GMT February 15, 2007
LKWD JJ 22:37 GMT

the way I see it this is a risk diversion liquidation of yen carry trades on a major but not yet massive scale.
================================
only need one match to light a candle or burn a forest!!!!
what would it take to change from major to massive?

Hong Kong Qindex 23:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:45 GMT - GBP/JPY : Anyone should keep an eye on GBP/USD and its Crosses when GBP/JPY is approaching the level at 229.80* - 229.85.

Patra alex 23:06 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 23:02 GMT February 15, 2007

Sir, can I have your views regarding USD/CHF and USD/CAD please? Also, what's your view regarding GBP/JPY in medium term?

Thank you.

NYC TC 23:06 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, any advice in GBPJPY? TIA

Hong Kong Qindex 23:06 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 21:13 GMT - EUR/GBP : For 6-month period 0.6973 is a reasonable target.

Sydney ge11ja 23:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:54 GMT February 15, 2007

The big chunks of overseas investments by Japanese are by Pension funds, trust banks etc. They wil hedge if they perceive an adverse curreny movement evolving. Its when they all start moving together that you get the big moves. Probably not here yet (actually looking a tad oversold this morning) but the planets are starting to line up in my opinion.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 21:13 GMT - EUR/GBP : A buy signal has been triggered from my monthly cycle charts when the market is trading above 0.6708*. After 0.6729 the next target is 0.6749. Buy on dips is trading strategy.

Sydney ACC 22:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:14 GMT February 15, 2007
Sydney ACC 21:55 GMT February 15, 2007

Superficially the interest differential makes a compelling argument 7.5% for three years versus something g less than 1% in Japan. Nevertheless historically interest differentials even as large this one can be erased within a short period of time. While a retail investor may lack the professional savvy to care about stop-loss levels that is not the case with a professional. And as always when the profits have been erased and the market continues to trend lower it is impossible to pout the genie back in the bottle.

If a Japanese investor invested in NZD Uridahsis at the closing rate on 3rd Janaury, first day of the year, the exchange rate would have been 84.30, today it is 82.67 (at least when I calculated it). That equates to a loss on the principal and coupon payment receipts of 1.93%. While this is a long way from a rate that would eliminate the the profit that would earned from the interest differential over three years if that trend continued (an unlikely scenario I agree) that depreciation would be over 50% and would eliminate the difference.

When I look at this investment from another angle if that same investor invested his money on 1st July the exchange rate was 69.32. The appreciation is 21.6%, sufficient to compensate for the interest differential over the next two and half years.

Over most of the last three years the investor would have a foreign exchange gain, but as the Icelandic kronor showed last year these gains can be eliminated.

I am not saying one way or the other which it will go, but I think JPY’s change of fortunes may prove to be heavy weather for the Kiwi.

For your info – CBA agree with your view.

Charlotte TH 22:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
1.3014 looks like a reasonable target for eurusd this friday when it finally catches flu from gbpusd.

RIC fxq 22:48 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:37 GMT

the way I see it this is a risk diversion liquidation of yen carry trades on a major but not yet massive scale. EURUSD, in my opinion, is also as vulnerable as GBPUSD since it too had been boasted by EURJPY strength.

LKWD JJ 22:37 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 21:47 GMT February 15, 2007
LKWD JJ 21:42 GMT

have you been watching GBPJPY and the other yen crosses?
charts looking pretty much same story. with uk rates = to us carry could be equal as well with possibility of even more in gbpjpy .gbpjpy has move 30figs since may-06 while $Y has yo-yo from 109-122. just my thoughts hope you pros can help me make sense of it all.

GVI john 22:20 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   

       EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3143	119.19	1.2347	1.9510	1.1626	0.7844	156.64
High	1.3173	120.78	1.2409	1.9674	1.1670	0.7864	158.60
Low	1.3119	119.17	1.2333	1.9508	1.1621	0.7828	156.65
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/15/2007					
5 day 	1.3052	120.94	1.2448	1.9512	1.1704	0.7791	157.85
10 day	1.3018	120.79	1.2448	1.9580	1.1770	0.7783	157.24
20 day 	1.2994	121.05	1.2465	1.9627	1.1780	0.7787	157.29
50 day 	1.3045	119.88	1.2356	1.9591	1.1702	0.7822	156.37
100 day	1.2938	118.74	1.2380	1.9319	1.1524	0.7747	153.63
200 day	1.2837	117.05	1.2356	1.9002	1.1354	0.7640	150.28

GVI john 22:18 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Fri, Feb 16, 2007
23:50 JA- Dec Tertiary Activity Index
07:00 GE- Jan CPI (final)
10:00 EZ- Jan Trade
13:30 US- Jan Housing Starts (see 1.6mln vs. 1.642mln)
13:30 US- Jan PPI (see -0.5% vs. +0.9%; core +0.2% vs. +0.2%)
15:00 US- Feb(p) U of M (see 96.6 vs.96.9)


Mon, Feb 19, 2007
US- Presidents Day Holiday

Tue, Feb 20, 2007
07:00 GE- Jan PPI
07:15 CH- Jan Trade
12:00 CA- Jan CPI
CHART


Wed, Feb 21, 2007
JA- BOJ Policy Decision
09:30 UK- Feb BOE Minutes
11:00 UK- Feb CBI Ind Trends
10:00 EU- Dec BOP
13:30 US- Jan CPI
13:30 CA- Dec Retail Trade
15:00 US- Jan LEI
15:30 US- Weekly Energy
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes

Thu, Feb 22, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan Customs Trade
00:30 AU- Nov AWOTE
07:00 GE- 4Q06 final GDP
08:15 CH- 4Q06 Employment
10:00 EU- Dec Industrial Orders
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
15:30 US- Natural Gas

Fri, Feb 23, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan CSPI
23:50 JA- Dec All Sector Activity Index
09:30 UK- 4Q06 GDP (2nd release)
09:30 GE- Feb IFO

Cannes Oil man 22:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:55 GMT February 15, 2007

Thanks, great input, though why would japan investors invest in their homeland apart in stocks (which that i can understand) , but in for exemple JGB's when rates are rising (triangular swap arbitrages risks not worth it , if JGB rates rising , combined with Yen firming) , when they can get a piece of wonderful NZ , so close to homeland , with close to 8% interests (quite a change from their 0%+ JGB's)

Rates going up in Japan , is a novelty , it might change a lot on where the money is diversified to in japan...

Then again under 6790 , I'm leaving the boat.
gl gt


Sydney ACC 21:55 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   

Oil Man, I appreciate your comments regarding the currencies and applaud your accuracy on the Kiwi especially over the last few months you spotted the trend before many of us, certainly me for one.

I wonder though whether the trend in USD/JPY is going to affect future movements in those currencies that were beneficiaries of the carry trade over the last year or so, especially the Kiwi.

It was around the end of May USD/JPY began to trend upwards from 109.30. At the same time NZD/USD bottomed out at 0.5930. Since then the two pairs have trended in identical fashion.

Uridashi bonds issued since January 2005 have gone a long way to financing NZ’s current account deficit which since that date is about NZD 1 billion a month. In 2005 there was NZD 11.9 billion, 2006 NZD 8.3 billion and so far this year NZD 1.7 billion. Now since the Kiwi began to trend upwards the Uridashi’s have been on average NZD 850 million per month. This left a difference of NZD 150 million plus any foreoign loan repayments to be financed from other sources.

So then as JPY trends higher the incentive to Japanese investors to invest overseas has to diminish. This is going to occur at precisely the same time as many of the bonds issued in 2004 come to maturity. I am not going to say the Uridashi market is going to dry up overnight, that would be foolish, however, the flow is likely to be stemmed, to what degree I don’t know. Japanese investors will want a higher return to compensate for the risk to invest overseas. Most of these issues are swap driven so either the issuer or the NZ bank at the other end of the swap will need to pay a higher return. Either option is unlikely as they seek alternative forms.

I would appreciate your comments as always

USA BAY 21:53 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

AH Aye to the rescue. thanks a mil

jkt-aye 21:50 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
BAY ... see his post below (21:03)
btw my magnetic level for this pair at 229.90. gtgl

UK Alex 21:48 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Extreme positioning in GBP/Yen has been cable's downfall today. Real selling only hit the market during the U.S. session.

Cannes Oil man 21:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
You are right , i ve been calling the US$ down since Euro hit 1.25 in september..I think it has worked pretty well..
Don't see any change in the long term view, albeit sometimes i go short Euro , or nzd etc , on some odd days (like 2 friday or so ago).

As for $:CAD , I haven't longed it since my 3 month call 1.1093 in september , and have each time campaigned for 100-250 pips in spot short every time..(Last was 1.1858 , which i took out much too early , look gvi).

SINGAPORE GFX 21:19 GMT February 15, 2007

RIC fxq 21:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:42 GMT

have you been watching GBPJPY and the other yen crosses?

UK Alex 21:46 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:40 GMT February 15, 2007
Was selling cable over 1.9600 myself, but I don't believe there are any new reasons to sell it apart from the retail sales figures which were released today. The jobs figures from the day before were certainly positive and cannot be disregarded.

USA BAY 21:45 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

What is the next target for gbp/jpy since 232.75 is broken. thanks

london av 21:45 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
what levels are we looking at for GBP/YEN now

Charlotte TH 21:44 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:42 GMT February 15, 2007
cable why a drop of 10 pips?

it has 990 more to go.lolzzz...

LKWD JJ 21:43 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
hope so will help bottom line immensly, along with confidence!

LKWD JJ 21:42 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
cable why a drop of 10 pips?

SINGAPORE GFX 21:42 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

Looking at gbp/jpy and eur/gbp and friday, looks like your target 1.93xx may be true. gt/gl

Charlotte TH 21:41 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
sold nzdusd 0.6937 with stops above today's daily trendline test at 0.6970.target for half at 0.6850.rest below 0.6767.

LKWD JJ 21:40 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 21:24 GMT February 15, 2007
LKWD JJ 21:19 GMT February 15, 2007
cable has behaved nicely on 4hr chart over the last few weeks especially today even thogh it went above trend line @19677 or a bit. daily chart is not looking to healthy either . cot did show comms net short cable and net long jpy.target cable 19388 soon

UK Alex 21:37 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:30 GMT February 15, 2007
Nikkei running a story saying February rate hike still hangs in the balance. They also say many in the market believe that this growth was amplified because of the previous quarter's plunge.

LKWD JJ 21:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
will we have a case of sold the rumor and buy the news off jap tertiary index, or is this the carry unwind and repatriation season and sell is the key word no matter what the numbers are?

Vienna GD 21:29 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 20:59 ... where do you see gold then?

UK Alex 21:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 21:19 GMT February 15, 2007
Yes, and the retail sales deflator was -0.3% y/y.

St. Annaland Bob 21:25 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 20:09 GMT February 15, 2007
long USDJPY from 119.30 is also good for something

closed for -9 pips

UK Alex 21:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:19 GMT February 15, 2007
I'm neutral on sterling. Just remember it takes a while for the consumer to adjust. In the U.S. there have been 17 rate hikes in the tightening cycle where as over here there have been only 3 so far.

Charlotte TH 21:19 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 21:16 GMT February 15, 2007
the lower energy bills over time might have a pervasive infaltion cooling effect,what do you think?

LKWD JJ 21:19 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 21:16 GMT February 15, 2007
are you looking for cable up ?

SINGAPORE GFX 21:19 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

GBP/USD is clearly going down. You were calling for gbp/usd 2.xx a few weeks back, and usd/cad 1.09 some months back but it went up 600 pips from there.

Charlotte TH 21:17 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
8 hour charts on nzdusd suggest medium term top has been tested at 0.6970 and decline to below 0.6767 over next 2 to 4 weeks can be expected.

LKWD JJ 21:16 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
oil man why are you ruining the sell party in cable ?

UK Alex 21:16 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 21:11 GMT February 15, 2007
The retail sales coming in well below expectations was probably a blip. I'm expecting lower domestic energy bills to offset the BOE hikes to some extent.

GENEVA DS 21:13 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
HongKong Qindex

Thanks for your update on EURGBP... 2 questions, where would be a good entry point short term to go long and where do you see this cross in a very long range?

Charlotte TH 21:13 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
nzdjpy- a favourite carry pair is likely going to suffer from first serious correction of usdjpy as well.06850 is on the cards for nzdusd.

Charlotte TH 21:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
today's rise and drop post retail data from uk may well be the beginning of a 1000 pip drop on gbpusd.eurusd can't go it alone.usdjpy may shake it down too with eurjpy getting depressed to a degree close to gbpjpy earlier today.

Hong Kong Qindex 21:10 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : Heading Towards 0.6790*.

Cannes Oil man 21:07 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Few days ago , NZD was disliked , everyone was talking of the citi recom's to short 67--68 (bottom feeder, similar to gbp right now)...Some even said , NZD is going to .6000.

Market shuffled (once 6880 was retaken was fast), and we're now at 6950 Area..
The next big shuffle at 7030(and bigger)
Still a good buy zone 6880--6925 area.

GBP is now the "black sheep" of the week , (Was NZD week before, week prior than NZD was AUD , and prior again was EURO) , so probably it might go 20/50 pips more downside followed a major upside move(on most of it's crosses).
Which is what the other ccy have done after their black sheep status got solved (it gets solved eating stops of people following the recom's of black sheeps analysts).

GL GT.

Hong Kong Qindex 21:07 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Speculative selling pressure will increase when 118.91* fails to hold.

dc CB 21:04 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
$/Yen not very far from breaking thru another figure...before Tokyo opens????

Hong Kong Qindex 21:03 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : If the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 232.75*, the next targeting level is 229.80* - 229.85.

GENEVA DS 20:59 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
STILL ON THE ROAD.... Carry is over .... most will only believe it in many month.... EURCHF , EURJPY... GBPUSD.... as mentioned 1 week ago... Party is over... 1.5800 EURCHF... 14500 EURJPY and GBPUSD 18500 ish... very fast... GOOD TRADES...

SINGAPORE GFX 20:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

How further you expect gbp/jpy to drop currently 232.87. thanks

LKWD JJ 20:53 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CRIS CT was short cable from but got stopped out at [email protected]#$ highs on most .kept one open and making back some pips. are we going sub 1.95? yesterday was first up day in a while.

LKWD JJ 20:49 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CRIS CT

UK Alex 20:32 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY 55 DMA 119.32

UK Alex 20:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dollar at more than one-month lows after U.S. data

SINGAPORE GFX 20:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK ALEX,

The 55 dma for usd/jpy comes to 120.60. Am I right. thanks

warsaw TOMi 20:25 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
oh yes,sori for that,could you erase, tx

GVI 20:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi - please respect our rule of no posting of email

UK Alex 20:22 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 20:11 GMT February 15, 2007
Take your cue from $/Yen. Now that it's fallen through the 55 DMA, I expect it to be tested from the other side once a base has formed.

St. Annaland Bob 20:13 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 20:11 GMT February 15, 2007

you know, something ;)

warsaw TOMi 20:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 19:57 GMT February 15, 2007

why do you Have to,Bob?:)

SINGAPORE GFX 20:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK ALEX,

So if there is a short rebound on gbp/jpy, what is the appropriate target. tia

Miami OMIL (/;-> 20:10 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 18:47 GMT February 15, 2007
Maybe in your system but not mine. Peace and GT

St. Annaland Bob 20:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
long USDJPY from 119.30 is also good for something

UK Alex 20:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 20:06 GMT February 15, 2007
I think there is some more to come, but here seems a logical place to take a rest.

SINGAPORE GFX 20:06 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK ALEX,

In your opinion do you feel the gbp/jpy unwinding has ended for now or more to come. tia

USA BAY 20:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LONDON GOONER,

Great to see your post again. THANKS

UK Alex 19:58 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 19:51 GMT February 15, 2007
Agree with you there, as I said before GBP/Yen had the most extreme positioning. Swiss franc has also gained across the board.

St. Annaland Bob 19:57 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 17:09 GMT February 15, 2007

I have to ask you a question, how long you are in the FX trading business?

London Gooner 19:55 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY.
Although appears to want to confirm a daily double top it has come back on previous weekly broken trendline which now acts as support.
The risk if short is that this support 119.25 holds and a 5th weekly wave up from 108.98 low unfolds. May be to 125.00
Below 119.20 should tempt a lot of market to try and unwind.
But short term oversold leaves doubt about the breakdown.
GBPJPY in my view has done the first healthly correction of the long rally. The structure of the correction (3-3-3-3-3 triangle) which has seen an overflow on wave 'e' today. Does not necessarily mean we're breaking down - A lot of the time 'e' seems to indicate break but only false - Wave 'e' normally should be the last.
The corrective pattern from this year high is normally indicative of bullishness to come. below 233.00 consistent would cancel the view of a strong bounce from current level. regaining 234.40 signals false break. I prefer the long side from here on.

Last 2 years rapatriation weeks have not been a big deal on Yen (200-300 pips) - worth bearing in mind.

Cable may have ended decline today just above 1.9505 Fibo - to try
upside again on a bullish case scenario. Cable did a 3-3-5 expanded flat from 1.9916 to 1.9401. This is again viewed as healthy correction in bull runs. 1.9520 which accelerated the move to 1.9677 signaled completion of 3-3-5 pattern was retested today, if holds and regains 1.9590 bulls will want to run through 1.9680/9750 area.

Cannes Oil man 19:51 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
EURGBP gained a lot cause people scrambled out of GBPJPY to go into EURO..

it's not EURGBP moving up alone without reasons , triggering stops.

UK Alex 19:45 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Carry trade unwind, look at Euro/CHF and GBP/CHF.

USA BAY 19:39 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
The Usd's broad slump has been of no benefit to [CABLE] during the day, the p...
The Usd's broad slump has been of no benefit to [CABLE] during the day, the pair pressured into a layer of tech bids reported to be in place ahead of 1.9500 (1.9505 the 61.8% retracement of the gains off the Feb low) as the Pound suffers on the crosses. Stops have been tripped above 0.6720 in Eur/Gbp while Gbp/Jpy has slumped amid a broad based Jpy buyback and an FX bank's highlighting of the 55-day m.a. (233.94) as something of a key level for near term direction. The Short Sterling strip shows UK rate hike expectations continue to be cut back in the wake of the BoE's Jan inflation report, below f/c Jan CPI and a soft RICS HPI for Jan, suggesting a long market will continue to be pressured. The n/t target for Gbp/Jpy is 222.22 according to the bank research should the break below 233.94 be sustained, while Eur/Gbp is edging towards the late "06/early Jan 0.6740-90 highs.

london phil 19:26 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
if you put a 50 ma on gbp jyp daily chart you see this ma has been a great area to buy since april last year could we perhaps see a bounce from this os level i wonder for a rebuild of carry trades

london av 19:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
does anyone think GBP/JPY has been majorly oversold. if 23317 holds for a while i still think u can scalp a few pips long with s/l 23290

dc CB 19:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke done. One of the last things of any note, he said the Yuan was undervalued.

madrid mm 18:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY is the king of the day 8-)

madrid mm 18:50 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
fwiw it is important to know when big numbers like this hit the market

madrid mm 07:07 GMT February 14, 2007
gm fx jedi
On FX, focus is still on the US Treasury coupons of almost $27bln hitting the markets on Feb 15, ...

USA BAY 18:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
ATHENS,

OK, got it. Thanks a lot, learnt something new.

to dr unken katt 18:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:4

major support was at 234

Edmonton Rob 18:44 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Do we think then the possible run at 1.3200 for the EUR/USD is over?

Athens 18:43 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY, O/S (overold) means that:

1) If you are aggressive you try a fast contra trade.

2) If you are prudent (i.e. you don't like hihj risk) you just don't sell it around current level.

3) Any levels I mention here are valid only for the day unless stated otherwise. Being dynamic and not static levels they have to be adjusted every day.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:42 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Short term view: Again the yen weakness has been the story here with gbp/jpy taking out the main support 235.50-60 and eur/jpy heading towards that goal (156.60-50) as well. ***On the majors the gbp/usd briefly broke main resistance (9590-9600) to give it back rather quickly. It is sell on failed dips for the gbp/usd pair as it stands now until the main resistance is taken out. Next key support is around the 9510-20 area for now. Mid term key support (9300.10) awaits to make this move a serious one. ***The eur/usd pair has been resilient against a big drop like the other majors but the promise for the bulls to break key resistance (3170-80) has been fading quickly with out the help of the yen cross (eur/jpy) and now prepares for a consolidation-retracement period. Support is around the 3100-10, 3050-60 and main support 3020-30 for now.***The usd/jpy has taken out the main support (120.20-30) and key support 119-119.10 awaits but with indicators in the O/S area this pair is running out of time. Mid term key resistance (118.70-60) awaits to further solidify this move IMHO. Peace and GT

USA BAY 18:35 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
ATHENS,

GBP/JPY O/S area does that mean you expect it to go down further or a bounce up. thanks

Athens 18:35 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Sorry about the typo in my previous comment, I was referring to GBP/JPY.

Athens 18:32 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, re GBP/CHF some caution is advised now as today I have my first O/S area (for the day) around 233.30 and also around 233.00 a long term support line. I am out no, "see" you sometime, till then good luck everyone.

USA BAY 18:31 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Thanks cris

CT Cris 18:29 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:58 GMT February 15, 2007
CT CRIS,

Could you share your mid term view for gbp/jpy. i feel we may see 225 before heading to 260. thanks

=====
first target 228.

HK Kevin 18:13 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Athens 17:59 GMT, many thanks. Yes, 5-10 figures correction for the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY is still a health correction for the YEN cross. In Apr last year, YEN and EUR both adavnce against USD. During the massive unwinding in Aug 1998, DEM soared up first before its free fall.

Athens 18:07 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye, thanks and same to you.

CT Cris 18:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
I already did that for you.
=========
CT Cris 17:30 GMT February 15, 2007
USA BAY 17:20 GMT February 15, 2007
CT CRIS,
=====
gbp.jpy is decline to 232.80-70.

jkt-aye 18:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Athens ... good call. as always enjoying your invaluable insight. good trades

Athens 17:59 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Kevin. It often is the case that a soft $/JPY is seen when the USD strenthens against the other majors but we cannot say one implies the other. In the current market it could be a typical case, though, if the carry trade thing finally begind to unwind for good. I can't preclude even a new LTCM if the unwinding gets out of control...

USA BAY 17:58 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Could you share your mid term view for gbp/jpy. i feel we may see 225 before heading to 260. thanks

CT Cris 17:57 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 17:53 GMT February 15, 2007
====
I only forcast the coming session , I can do long term , but
I am a daytrader.

jkt-aye 17:56 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY, this divergence (if it is, LOL) means a potential reverse/bounce the recent trend for those pairs.

pls see also Qindex level and Cris direction. glgt

HK Kevin 17:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
london av 17:38 GMT, GBP/JPY may slide to 231.10 if it can't climb back to 234.10

Charlotte TH 17:53 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris do you ever forecast for medium or long term? Or do you only forecast short term?

What are your takes on eurusd and gbpusd over the next few weeks/months?

Thanks

USA BAY 17:52 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LONDON AV,

Tom being friday dont you think gbp/jpy may decline further? thanks

HK Kevin 17:51 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Athens 17:42 GMT, thanks for your insight comments. As per your post about the relationship of YEN and USD at the earlier beginning of the year, does a stronger YEN also implies a stronger USD at the current maket situation?

CT Cris 17:46 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Bexhill pj 17:37 GMT February 15, 2007
CT Chris - well done on a good job today mate.
=====
thks , yes I did good job today for the big accounts only
which I managed , as I have special formula for the big account.

Athens 17:42 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Fine, both call re weaker $/JPY (13:57) and weaker cable (14:22) worked well.

london av 17:38 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
im long GBP/JPY 23332. can anyone suggest a reasonable s/l?

warsaw TOMi 17:37 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 17:33 GMT February 15, 2007

capital divergence, for slowly but surely is neccessary as well.

Bexhill pj 17:37 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT Chris - well done on a good job today mate.

No sign of your biggest adversary though, probably practicing reverse double bottom sommersaults with 2 1/2 twists belly-flops off his .66 mtr eur/gbp patented diving board!

USA BAY 17:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
JKT AYE,

This potential divergence, what does it mean. thanks

USA BAY 17:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
VAN JV,

I don't see anyone using this forum as chat line????

to dr unken katt 17:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
euro is for suckers
5 weex in the 40pip range , waste of timex

CT Cris 17:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 17:27 GMT February 15, 2007
===
that is for the coming session.

jkt-aye 17:31 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
i see potential divergence on 4H chart for eur,jpy,chf against usd.

Van jv 17:31 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
just reminder/ this is not a chat line

CT Cris 17:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:20 GMT February 15, 2007
CT CRIS,
=====
gbp.jpy is decline to 232.80-70.

warsaw TOMi 17:28 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
kacik,cable is good,still waiting for €uro to plusk ..8)

New York Bank Trader 17:28 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Yes, I have experience with managed account. Whats the question.

BA 17:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Is anybody there who has experience with managed acc.?

jkt-aye 17:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:59 ... any target for that ? my level show 1.3105 and 1.3060 on 15M-30M-1H basis. btw where is CT ? tia

CT Cris 17:25 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 17:17 GMT February 15, 2007
CT Cris 17:14 GMT February 15, 2007


What kinda time frame are you anticipating for that kinda fall?

====
from now till the first 2-3 hours of the asian.

to dr unken katt 17:25 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
ToMiK Heyo , did u score at least 10k today?

london phil 17:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
yes ed my daily charts show us at the begining of a nice move up with trend 4 hours we have retraced some of yesterdays move i dont think alll is lost for cable

Bratislava 17:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Is there anybody who has experience with managed acc?

NYC Ed 17:22 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Cable, might look disappointing, BUT hang On All it's making a move back, check the 4 hour daily & weekly

madrid mm 17:21 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
telaviv dor 16:31 GMT February 15, 2007
mm ' what is 8- ? TIA

8-) ------- Happy face, happy man !!!

USA BAY 17:20 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Good job CRIS CT. Could you please comment on gbp/jpy please. thanks

----------------------------------------------

WASHINGTON,

I did tell you gbp/usd yesterday was a false bull move.

Charlotte TH 17:18 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 18:28 GMT February 14, 2007
cross driven euphoria has got eurusd up here at 1.3150 and gbpusd to 1.9640,also got some help from boe quarterly inflation report.neat r/r sells here.

*******************************************

thks.

Edmonton Rob 17:17 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:14 GMT February 15, 2007


What kinda time frame are you anticipating for that kinda fall?

CT Cris 17:15 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 17:11 GMT February 15, 2007
Hey who is the genius who said short Cable, my hat is off to you !!!

======
thks.

CT Cris 17:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 17:11 GMT February 15, 2007
CT Cris 17:06 GMT February 15, 2007

Where do you think the EUR/USD is going?

====
13120-10.

Edmonton Rob 17:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:06 GMT February 15, 2007

Where do you think the EUR/USD is going?

NYC Ed 17:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Hey who is the genius who said short Cable, my hat is off to you !!!

warsaw TOMi 17:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Bob, lucky you, did you get out 9550?

Patra alex 17:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Thanks DEP!

CT Cris 17:06 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 17:02 GMT February 15, 2007
CT Cris 16:59 GMT February 15, 2007

What makes u say that?

============
weakness in reverse strength of the eur.usd

Van jv 17:05 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 15:10 /12
""More on carry trade.".. even for long termT seems excessive---
possibly all numbers + 60%--//-short and Med. - USD/JPY may hold at 118-115 and new Carry trades -//100 longer term...??

Cannes Oil man 17:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP is very close to finding the base via it's yen cross (and $:Y) , strong bounce to 1.98 in the next few days.

Edmonton Rob 17:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:59 GMT February 15, 2007

What makes u say that?

NYC Ed 17:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
9560 resistence on Cable Lunch coming up, we break it during or just after, 20 pips looks strong, BUT just today folks.

UK Alex 17:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
http://www.phil.frb.org/files/bos/bos0207.pdf

CT Cris 16:59 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 16:54 GMT February 15, 2007
We thinking 1.3180 in the EUR/USD is possible?
====
it is heading down.

Edmonton Rob 16:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
We thinking 1.3180 in the EUR/USD is possible?

RIC fxq 16:50 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
fwiw - GBPUSD not close to o/s basis my daily, weekly and monthly prop indicator. 3 hr interval is only mildly o/s on a short term - 9/12 hour basis.

CT Cris 16:45 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:14 GMT February 15, 2007
The pop is about to happen once Yen finds a base , the conti's will pass..
GBP$ is looking good here for 1.98 target , if we succeed to pass above 1.3180 in e$ today, the recent lows in GBP$ won't be seen again for quite some time...Place stops to latest entry once 1.9640 breaks..(Latest entry see GVI 1.9571).
======
oil man ..is 19800 still coming ?

london phil 16:45 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
yes good call chris

Hong Kong Qindex 16:41 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : the market is testing the supporting strength of the barrier at 231.95 // 233.25*.

CT Cris 16:40 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:20 GMT February 15, 2007
gbp.usd
will continue it is decline .
sell b4 data sell another if rise tp 19500
=====
sold at 19570 b4 data.
sold another at 19610 after data.
exited both 19522.

london av 16:40 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/Yen - any thoughts at these levels. has sterling been oversold now?

Dallas GEP 16:38 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
6685 Alex !!!!

warsaw TOMi 16:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
katt,counte for another 50 pips coming down to 9480. don't get nervous 8)

gt

Dallas GEP 16:35 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Alex 6885 for eur/gbp and 1.1700 for usd/cad

Hong Kong Qindex 16:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA GB 16:18 GMT - EUR/USD : The distribution of daily cycle quantized levels are as follow :- ... 1.2982* // 1.3025* - [1.3047] - 1.3069* - 1.3112* - 1.3155* // 1.3198* - 1.3241* ...

EUR/USD : There is some concern about the upside momentum. My weekly cycle charts indicate that the market refused to tackle the upper barrier at 1.3217* // 1.3255. The daily cycle quantized level shows that the market is rejected from the upper barrier of the projected series at 1.3155* // 1.3198. Anyway speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3112*. At this moment EUR/USD is okay. If the market can penetrate through the daily directional indicator at 1.3047 - 1.3060* - (1.3060), the downside targeting points are 1.2863 and 1.2982.

Patra alex 16:32 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT February 15, 2007

Your target for USD/CAD and EUR/GBP please?

Thank you.

to dr unken katt 16:31 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
i dont get why you people r so **** /
and long the cable
cable is in the downward tunnel , has respected the upper band and reversed goin to the lower now
short signalz on every frame

telaviv dor 16:31 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
mm ' what is 8- ? TIA

warsaw TOMi 16:26 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
tx katt , where stop profit you see above?

Dallas GEP 16:23 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q posted earlier what he felt range would be on eur/gbp...just now saw it:

[.6668] - .6708* - .6729

I expect that the top range will contain longs presently and at that point in time we should see some more eur/usd shorts

to dr unken katt 16:22 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
cable s TP is more like 9300

Hong Kong Qindex 16:19 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The current expected trading ranges are 116.45 // 117.12* - 118.02 - 118.46 - 118.91* - [119.81] - 120.70*

USA GB 16:18 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex what are your thoughts on the eur/usd? I am long. Do you think it reverses from here and starts going down?

Hong Kong Qindex 16:15 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Porto Genius 09:56 GMT February 15, 2007
Hong Kong Qindex any views for eur/aud?
TIA

============================

EUR/AUD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.6659* - 1.6742 - 1.6826 - 1.6993* // 1.7118

St. Annaland Bob 16:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
TOMi, market will say ... s/l set, so I know what the risk running ... and I mentioned the trade was for something, it may go 19560/65 first ... we will see ... happy trades

dc CB 16:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
View from the Pit. Fyi because of Presidents' Day Holiday, IMM floor closes early Friday and is closed Monday.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$xjy&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

Dallas GEP 16:13 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
got some usd/cad LONG at 1.1635

warsaw TOMi 16:10 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
then it goes 9460, where can try long

Gen dk 16:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

warsaw TOMi 16:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Bob, cableplummets to 9500 1st

to dr unken katt 16:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
no buy , yen is at 11950 xtremely important level
if it goes yen will be short for quite a while

St. Annaland Bob 16:05 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
long cable @ 1.9535 with 20pips s/l ... for something in the green ... happy trades

RIC fxq 16:03 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
gone already Alex along w/157.00 for EJY

UK Alex 16:01 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
233.50 will probably hold for now.

RIC fxq 15:58 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
3 hour chart on GBPJPY looks very sick, EURJPY has lots of room to catch up

warsaw TOMi 15:57 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
katt 23350 buy?

PAR 15:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Still expect intervention between 119.00 and 119.50 . Nothing to worry about . Bernanke says US economy possibly stronger than we think and Paulson will endorse strong US dollar policy .

madrid mm 15:53 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
...at least we have some action, and i am grateful for that !!!
8-)

madrid mm 15:52 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:50 GMT February 15, 2007

touché amigo !!!

UK Alex 15:50 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:46 GMT February 15, 2007
PAR's line in the sand now well and truely erased.

madrid mm 15:46 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Kampo might holf the fort for a while 8-)

RIC fxq 15:41 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:36 GMT

nothing like being a Yen bull ! rotfl

Oakland daimyo 15:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:50 GMT February 15, 2007
Nothing wrong w/ platform. Electronic order book doing the quick step trying to play catch up. Focus on independant data feed next few days. Good trades.

Dallas GEP 15:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
FXQ, I am confused also then. LOL

Oakland daimyo 15:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
FWIW: Range trade stategies are not recommended during current market environment. Volatility expected to increase as "lines in the sand" are redrawn. Market will become more difficult to judge liquidity @ support/ resistance (stop hunts likely). I believe the line of least resistance has been determined for both EURUSD (up) and USDCHF (down). So therefore, swimming against the tide is risky business. Good trades.

Gen dk 15:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 15:31 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:30 GMT February 15, 2007
0.6720 of course.

UK Alex 15:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
However GBP/Yen positioning is much more extreme than its cousin Euro/Yen.

dc CB 15:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
fyi. Bernanke is on Cspan3, can be streamed off the web. from the opening remarks of the various Congressman, Ben may get some pointed questons. Only one of the Reps said all is good the stock market is up. The others pointed to wealth inequality, one even pointed out that the Fed and the "working committee" were too secretive and remarked about the elimination of M3 reporting.

Ben reading his speach now.

madrid mm 15:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:27 GMT February 15, 2007
don t get me wrong please....only pulling your leg lol

RIC fxq 15:29 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:26 GMT

just my guess but I "think" he does mean 60.00 and 90.00.

madrid mm 15:29 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Alex , Euro/GBP, 1.6720 ????

My goodness !!!!! 8-)

UK Alex 15:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:24 GMT February 15, 2007
Concur with you on Euro/GBP, 1.6720 does look like a critical level.

Dallas GEP 15:26 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
DS if I might suggest it is better to give the entire number such as 119.60 to avoid any confusion to the newbies

Dallas GEP 15:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
There will be pressure on eur/usd to short term to short from here at 1.3150 because:

eur/jpy is weakening
eur/gbp is at top of it's range or near

London JBS 15:13 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke's prepared remarks to the House identical to Wed to the Senate: inflation is easing, growth steady, and interest rate policy is keeping price pressures at bay. Mkt will pay attention to the Q&A later to see if he changes the tone after yesterday mkt reaction.

GENEVA DS 15:12 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
SORRY , miscalculation... 60 for USDJPY and 90 for GBPJPY... sorry for that

GENEVA DS 15:10 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
More on carry trade... even tough the press and even the Boulevard Press is now full of explanation how carry trade works, I believe we have seen the change in tendency already some 10 days ago.... EURJPY and AUDJPY and....GBPJPY struggle for sure up here... the only problem is , the KAMPO and company,,, will not let this thing go down fast... but knowing them over the course of the next 5 to 10 years.... (nice for this forum!!) targets are 70 EURJPY, 45 AUDJPY and 60 for GBPJPY.... ANYBODY ????

warsaw TOMi 14:52 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 14:50 GMT February 15, 2007

same here, that's why I am on hold with horses fm.

warsaw TOMi 14:51 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
is bernanke to speak any minute now?

Dallas GEP 14:50 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
IIFFXX is having trouble with their feed. Beware of that because orders are NOT on auto execute

UK Alex 14:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 14:39 GMT February 15, 2007
Thanks fxq, I get the message, yesteday's news. :-)

Dallas GEP 14:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
shorted eur/gbp 6715..careful here because gbp seems to be weaker than euro currently but I expect that might change

RIC fxq 14:39 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:21 GMT

exactly what I said, all over the news wires and CNBC yesterday morning.

UK Alex 14:39 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Thursday that net foreign purchases of U.S. assets were much less than expected in December may not signal a trend quite yet. "This data reflects increased private investors diversification away from U.S. assets, an interesting development in that most analysts worry about official diversification away from U.S. assets," T.J. Marta, fixed income strategist at RBC Capital Markets said. "Whether the data indicate a trend is unclear," however, he said, "especially given that the decline could have been driven by year-end "window dressing" by money managers."

warsaw TOMi 14:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
squared at par , flat.

madrid mm 14:26 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR 14:18 GMT February 15, 2007
I have to say PAR, your analysis is quite.....entertaining. 8-) And further more you might be right

Athens 14:22 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Of all the major USD pairs the only one my model is bullish USD about is cable i.e. my favorite tactic is selling cable rallies.aiting to see how it will close against 1.9625 today. A close well under this level adds to my negative view, if above I will be cautious (but mot necessarirly bullish cable). A move above 1.9775 today (rather unlikely to see) negates my bearish view..Support 1.9520, 1.9455, 1.9400, 1.9305-15. Resistance 1.9675-90, 1.9745, 1.9775-85, 1.9830. I am out, good luck.

UK Alex 14:21 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 14:08 GMT February 15, 2007
Chrysler's troubles from Detroit

PAR 14:18 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Decline in IP due to car production shifting to Japan from Detroit .

Bahrain BAH1 14:18 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Manufacturing capacity utilization fell to 79.6% in Jan from 80.4% in Dec

Cannes Oil man 14:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
The pop is about to happen once Yen finds a base , the conti's will pass..
GBP$ is looking good here for 1.98 target , if we succeed to pass above 1.3180 in e$ today, the recent lows in GBP$ won't be seen again for quite some time...Place stops to latest entry once 1.9640 breaks..(Latest entry see GVI 1.9571).

NZD/$:

Still long 6790 , no change in target , albeit more strong data coming from NZD, technically need to break 6970 for 7030..
Though a consolidation phase 69//70 for a few days would be better for further gains (going too fast up makes things fall even faster at a later time).

Long 6920 area looks good.(I Added there last night).
gl gt

Bahrain BAH1 14:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
US January industrial production -0.5% from Dec's revised +0.5% (prelim +0.4%) and against forecasts for 0.0%. Capacity utilisation was 81.2% from Dec's 81.8% and a forecast 81.7%.

malaysia 14:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
long gbp/usd how?i think rise 1.97++, please guys..any comment or news from us or uk

warsaw TOMi 14:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf 2357

RIC fxq 14:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:00 GMT

yesterday's news, already in the mkt

PAR 14:06 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Last months TICS revised up by $ 16.5 BILLION . Talking about SMALL revisions .

Mtl JP 14:05 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Alex 14:00 / c my 23:17 Feb 14. or .. Picture

UK Alex 14:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:57 GMT February 15, 2007
DaimlerChrysler says it will cut 13,000 jobs at its Chrysler operation in North America. The Detroit News quotes unnamed company sources as saying DaimlerChrysler has hired J.P. Morgan & Co. to consider options for Chrysler.

Bahrain BAH1 14:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
US net foreign inflows to long-term U.S. securities plunged to $15.6 billion in December (consensus: $60.0B) after a revised $84.9B (was $68.4B) in November.

Atlanta South 14:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
This is what is am talking about.

madrid mm 14:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
one´s hope tyhat uncle Ben S. Bernanke will make this market go 1 way or the other 8-)

warsaw TOMi 14:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
short another 3155 €, cable short 9595.

Athens 13:57 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Follow- up to my:
Athens 01:40 GMT January 26, 2007
FWIW I had been bearish Yen across the board for several weeks. I have now changed direction on both model and non model ground.

No change of view. Still favoring the Yen in all pairs. Shorty term first $/JPY O/S territory for today only under 119. A close under 119.80-85 woud add credence. Unit currently trading well outside (downside) of my model band. TC (model parameter) no longer too high but still high, hemcce ample room for further correvtion (in the worst case a flat correction). Yen crosses should crrect much better in medium/longer term. Strategy remains unchanged in all yen pairs, sell on rallies (i.e. buy JPY decent dips).

RIC fxq 13:57 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
For PAR:

RTRS: Japan's Toyota Motor Corp boosted European car sales by more than a fifth in January, overtaking DaimlerChrysler and helping the overall market edge up 1.1%, industry data showed

Atlanta South 13:57 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi
Ref 13:48//That is correct, but what is happening now is
what I am referring to. I too am considering shorting E/$,
but not now. I agree with you, but so far its not happening.
Thanks for your views & gt.

warsaw TOMi 13:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
no worries Ed, it will at the end,fm it doesn't agree with anybody gl/gt

NYC Ed 13:52 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi...I'm with you on this, but the market doesn't want to agree with us.

warsaw TOMi 13:48 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 13:37 GMT February 15, 2007

Dr Q said,cable showing the direction for € and chf,stop 3161.

target to break 3096.

warsaw TOMi 13:43 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
it looks like an asian session, trying to japoozle me..

warsaw TOMi 13:39 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Ed, actually based on expected pullback to previous range border.

NYC Ed 13:38 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
This market is as choppy as the Caspian Sea

Atlanta South 13:37 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Warsaw Tomi
Use a stop as it could go either way. For me I'm out until
a direction is defined. Read Dr. Q's comments below. @ this
level more up could come. Just my thoughts. Gl & Gt.

NYC Ed 13:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
OK so warsaw no reason, anyone think job report US is usd negative?

NYC Ed 13:32 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw is this based on US jobs report??

warsaw TOMi 13:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
short €/$ 3141

to dr unken katt 13:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
its support line from dec/january, its a magnet , see on dayly

NYC Ed 13:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
I am LONG Cable right here @ 9582, I think a day later Bernake is still going to drag the usd.
any thoughts??

Plovidv Gotin 13:20 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 13:11 GMT February 15, 2007
anyone good lvl to short €ur/$? sold earlier at 3150, byt squared 3125, 3150 again or higher anyone sees, tx
1.3179/88/97...1.3208/15/28/51/70

warsaw TOMi 13:17 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
drunky katt, that's 100 pips to make downwards,is it a call? lol

to dr unken katt 13:15 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
TOMIKO go heavy long on cablovitz/hyena at 23400

warsaw TOMi 13:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
anyone good lvl to short €ur/$? sold earlier at 3150, byt squared 3125, 3150 again or higher anyone sees, tx

UK Alex 13:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:04 GMT February 15, 2007
And what about China? WSJ are running a story which says China may cut down on its bond purchases.

CT Cris 13:07 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Park full of rabbish , whom shame to show there names in good
places.

Atlanta South 13:07 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip
12:55//Thanks for that great message. GT

PAR 13:04 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
BOJ ha s drawn line in the sand at 120.00 to encourage one way bets for 125.00. Kampo quiet active on the buy side .

san diego bobl 12:59 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Good thoughts shared from a professional... thank you Flip.

Dublin Flip 12:55 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Guys if you want to work in the market you have to have an opinion. You can have different ones and different time horizons. No one is right 100% of the time (even central banks) but you can't make money by bending with every breeze that comes along. We should be happy people voice their biases and reasons. If you agree with them at the time that's great. if you just treat a forum as micro-cosm andgo against it that's great too. As the cliches go "every dog has his day", "broken clocks are right twice a day" and my particular trading mantra "parks are full of experts".

You are only competing with yourself.

EU theEUROqueen 12:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:24 GMT February 15, 2007 ..


Well in that case [email protected] -90gold @800-900 and USD will fall like a rock....maybe for iran will be a very hard year..peace bob all we need is peace

LA Mickey 12:48 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LDN 12:36 GMT February 15, 2007

as matter of fact, not many made more money than Micky Mouse but maybe your meaning was Micky mouse.

CT Cris 12:41 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
LDN 12:36 GMT February 15, 2007
CT Cris 12:31 GMT February 15, 2007
====
forum await your Superman call.

LDN 12:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:31 GMT February 15, 2007
yes..and a lot of used up Demo accounts...you cant be serious with that micky mouse strategy...

CT Cris 12:31 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
malaysia 12:25 GMT February 15, 2007
ct cris how u know?gbp will decline

=====
high skills and experience.

CT Cris 12:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Sell/Buy another.... strategy.
if you sold b4 data and the market rose after data..sell another at intervals 30-35.
if you have not enough money , hedge at the appropriate
level.

malaysia 12:25 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
ct cris how u know?gbp will decline

St. Annaland Bob 12:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
theEUROqueen, ok ... the only reason for USD to get strong is it's soldiers having good exchange rate in Iran ;) ... happy trades to you too

london av 12:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
john, whats your thinking regarding GBP/YEN trade

CT Cris 12:20 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
will continue it is decline .
sell b4 data sell another if rise tp 19500

CA Jhon 12:18 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY short at 235.00 with 233.50 target and 236.00 SL

UK Alex 12:17 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY will stay close to 120 over the next 3 months despite the BoJ hike expected later in Feb, says Citigroup. Above-consensus GDP data overnight have given JPY some temporary support, but they're "unlikely to be a catalyst for a reversal in JPY weakness in 07", bank says, noting official support for low rates and low inflation concerns. Spot now at 120.05.

Cannes Oil man 12:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
$/Y no change going down(119.5---117---114---108).
EY going down , though as e$ is moving up downside is limited.

NYC 11:59 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 11:46 GMT February 15, 2007
If you are a queen , visiting Bob in Amstedam will suit you very well.

Philadelphia Caba 11:59 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Oily, may I have your view on usd/jpy and e/j, pls? tia!

Cannes Oil man 11:49 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
NZD holding 69 handle fine, should be able to see .7000 in the next few days..

GBP looks fine here at 1.9560//80 area for 1.97 and above.

GL GT.

EU theEUROqueen 11:46 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob..

hey thanks ..for M/T 1,26*-1,34*

S/T1,29*-1,33*

L/T well im not a FXs god only a Queen but HOPEFULLY the 1,4**

Happy trade

Syd 11:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
MOF Watanabe:Desirable If Mkts See Risks Of One-Way FX Moves


TOKYO Japan's top financial diplomat Thursday reiterated the Group of Seven countries' position that markets participants should be aware of the risks of making one-way bets in the currency markets.

Hiroshi Watanabe, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, also said players should consider various risks when reacting to Japanese gross domestic product data released earlier in the day. The data showed that "consumer spending and business investments have supported fourth-quarter economic growth," he said. "As for how the markets should react to them, there is nothing more to say than what we said at the G7 meeting" held in Germany last Friday and Saturday, he said.

Japanese Minister of Finance Koji Omi said at the gathering of finance ministers and central bank governors that "market participants ought to be aware that acting in one direction could bring a risk," referring to some traders' view that yen weakness is a sure bet.

Watanabe said the markets are being a bit complacent about risks, and therefore it isn't desirable to make one-way moves without proper risk assessment.


Gen dk 11:04 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

St. Annaland Bob 11:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   

China and it's FX reserves

malaysia 11:01 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
warsaw u mean market will down?any news from uk guys/.?

Porto Genius 10:35 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Porto Genius 09:56 GMT February 15, 2007
Hong Kong Qindex any views for eur/aud?

Someone else has any views?
TIA

warsaw TOMi 10:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
1st target filled at 9550,2nd 9480, 3rd gates open

malaysia 10:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
what your first target.9720? any news from uk?

warsaw TOMi 10:22 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
malaysia,gates of censored for cable

Athens MK 10:21 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Interesting reaction to the news... Currently there are two schools of thought....

Buy at these levels for renew assault for 1.9720+ area with stops below 1.95

Sell at 1.9480 area for TP at least 1.9380 until 1.9275 before renew assault on the 1.9620 level...

hmmm.....

malysia 10:20 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
how gbp/usd now?please guys.........................

Gen dk 10:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 10:10 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
UK Retail Sales:

Analysts said the latest fall was just payback after strong sales in December.

"If you take the two months together, the outcome is a lot more benign," said Amit Kara, economist at UBS, although he also said higher interest rates could dampen spending further out.

AMS MAXXIM 10:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Bierwurst that causes a lot cam levels?
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/Members/display_currency_data.php

UK Alex 10:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/Yen breaking through 235.50

Bahrain BAH1 10:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Hi frnds....Sell if brk 1.3115 with stop at 25.....p/t at 1.3080. GL.

UK Alex 10:01 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
*Swiss ZEW Feb. Credit Suisse Indicator Drops To Minus 17.3 From Minus 10.8 In January

Porto Genius 09:56 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex any views for eur/aud?
TIA

Hong Kong Qindex 09:56 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the barrier at 1.2112 // 1.3128.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:51 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD is the leading indicator for USD/CHF and EUR/USD.

Bahrain BAH1 09:51 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
JPY: Japan MoF's Watanabe says Q4 GDP shows Japan economy recovering. Says too early to say if market moves in line with G7 statement. (Reuters)

Hong Kong Qindex 09:49 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : Once the market can anchor above the barrier at 1.2469* // 1.2482, it will tackle the next targeting barrier at 1.2504* // 1.2521.

UK Alex 09:48 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:36 GMT February 15, 2007
Will that still happen even if the US data turns really bad?

Hong Kong Qindex 09:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : It is likely that we have seen the daily high already around 1.9678.

Auckland trotter 09:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
I have the EUR/USD as down, (with consideration of my previous posts) I see the pressure to:

1 day 10 year 23.8% fib around 1.2927
There is a support level on the 1 hour 30 day chart around 1.12925
S1 on the weekly pivots is 1.2929

PAR 09:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Wash / Dont figth the BOJ especially not when BOJ is backed by Paulson and Bernanke . They agreed on a 125.00 target .

London YP 09:28 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
U.K. J.B. -- continue to keep down bias on EUR/GBP pair? may I know your downside target? cheers

CA Jhon 09:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Today Signals

Currency Strategy Entry Take Profit Stop Loss
EURUSD Short 1.3140 1.3050 1.3190
GBPUSD Short 1.9650 1.9550 1.9700
USDCAD Long 1.1630 1.1750 1.1550
AUDUSD Short 0.7840 0.7750 0.7900
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/

Gen dk 09:17 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 09:13 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
The lunar new year starts on Feb 18. This is going to be year of the Pig

Washington MRM 09:05 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:01 GMT

What makes you say that, just the bounce? I think that US$/JPY is a sell at these levels, if only to test intraday low.

PAR 09:01 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Looks like BOJ decided to defend 120.00 instead of 119.50 .

Hong Kong Qindex 08:54 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The initial upside targeting point for my weekly cycle is 1.9678*. The upper barrier of my weekly cycle is positioning at 1.9678* // 1.9761

Gen dk 08:52 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Washington MRM 08:50 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Exited long GBP/US$ at entry - 1.9660. Seems to be much resistence up here. Bias is still up, but will look to re-enter after retail sales is released in UK.

Bahrain BAH1 08:49 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
easy money from long positions. GL

Bahrain BAH1 08:48 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Riksbank statement is dovish, suggesting the bank only sees one further policy rate hike as needed this year.

Bahrain BAH1 08:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Sweden UND1X inflation lower than expected at 1.1%, consensus was for 1.4%. CPI inflation 1.9% in line with expectations.
Sweden's unemployment up to 5.3% in January from 4.6% in Dec on seasonal factors.


EURSEK jumped from 9.14 to 9.20

Auckland peat 08:45 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
...that is long Eur/Sek

Auckland peat 08:44 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
heard there was some news on the SEK coming out so took a little long and yikes suddenly 250 pips presented themselves. hadnt even had time to place my stops. a bit scary really but the a/c bal is thankful.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:44 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Consolidating between 1.9612* - [1.9652] - 1.9691*.

Auckland trotter 08:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
I see the EUR/USD still has some up before the correction that is being indicated by the shorter term charts.

Consensus fundamentals for the US due out later appear not in favour of the USD.

Just looking for the price to sell, but will stay with the buy for now.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Consolidating between 1.9612* - [1.9652].

madrid mm 08:21 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
slowly but surely....
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said it has approved an additional 200 mln usd quota for HSBC Investment (Hong Kong) Ltd to invest in yuan-denominated capital markets under the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) program.
The approval brings HSBC Investment's total QFII quota to 600 mln usd.
Meanwhile, Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management Co was also granted a 200 mln QFII quota.
According to official reports, the end of 2006 saw participants in the the QFII program holding A-shares with a market value of 97.1 bln yuan.
This means the QFII program continued as the second largest source of institutional investment for the domestic stock market, after mutual funds.
China has so far granted about 9.545 bln usd worth of quotas to 54 institutions.

Bahrain BAH1 08:20 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:16 GMT February 15, 2007
09:30 gmt
GB Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Thanks Madrid.....


GVI....Hi there u need to change the time from 8.30 to 9.30GMT(Data Calendar) pls.

Good day.

St. Annaland Bob 08:17 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
happy day!

imo ... xxx/JPY is to provide us with few weekly red candles in a row ... happy trades

madrid mm 08:16 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
09:30 gmt
GB Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Hong Kong Qindex 08:15 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.9612*.

Bahrain BAH1 08:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Buy euro at 1.3120 with SAR at 1.3115. GL

Sofia mik 08:10 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
my 1st target fo today is eur/usd is 3041/44
Nice day!

Bahrain BAH1 08:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds.... UK retail sales at 8.30 or 9.30GMT pls?
Good day to you all.

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 08:01 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
1.3133 and 1.9644
eur/usd buyers wait 1.3106 for tgt 1.3273 and sellers wait 1.3273 for action too.
gbp/usd buyers wait 1.9602 for tgt 1.9726-1.9756 and sellers wait that range for action.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
One last thing before I leave. Even though the eur/usd pair is bullish at this time it will be very difficult to make any head way until the eur/jpy pair bounces and starts on his bullish merry way (this pair has tested the key support today with no luck of breaking it) IMHO. Peace and GT

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 07:58 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
hello forum.
I hope u are all fine till today

NYC 07:51 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
munich hans 07:42 GMT February 15, 2007
to put it in language you understand...Kampo is like a large german bierwurst that causes a lot of damage when forced into a little hole....

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:48 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
munich hans 07:42 GMT February 15, 2007
I suggest next time use google and research the name that way. There is a wealth of information in the Internet as it is here with the use of the archives IMHO. Peace and GT

http://glossary.reuters.com/index.php/Kampo

Haifa ac 07:46 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
NYC 05:38 GMT February 15, 2007
"so many euro bulls to bury , in so little time..."//

LOL. Ahmedinijad, is that you?!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:44 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:26 GMT February 15, 2007
I wonder if you are not the contrarian in the forum. Not that is bad to have we can see all the angles even if we get a headache from over analyzing LOL. No offense meant just curious how you swim against this forum stream without really showing any scars. Peace and GT

Syd 07:44 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 07:32 GMT the rot is starting to set in

munich hans 07:42 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
anyone can explain what is kampo and name

Sofia mik 07:41 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
http://www.acea.be/files/PRPC-0107-TOTAL%20EUROPE-FINAL.pdf

PAR 07:34 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Toyota s car are worse than german car but Toyota s advertisng budgets are gigantic ,financed by immer devaluing yen .

madrid mm 07:33 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:26 GMT February 15, 2007
Napoleon ????? is he alive like Elvis ?

Sofia mik 07:32 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:27 GMT ...
Renault -7.5%
gl/gt

Syd 07:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Toyota Motor Co. (TM) Thursday posted a 20.5% rise in European new car registrations in January, while German manufacturers struggled due to a change in that country's tax regime.

Toyota, which is seeing sales rise in most of its markets at the moment, outperformed a rise of 1.1% for overall European car registrations in January, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association said.



PAR 07:26 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Napoleon , Contrary to Paulson and Bernanke I expect some Kampo and BOJ intervention between 119.00 and 119.50 to stop the yen from rising

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:21 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Short term view gbp/usd pair: This pair has taken out the main resistance 9590-80 and has also made a good buy signal when it broke the 9640-50 area. For now the indicators are reaching the O/B level but no signs of backing down. The main resistance is now main support and until it is taken out this will be buy on failed dips. Next key resistance is the 9740-50, 9840-50 and tops 9900-10 area for now. Long, mid and short term are all bullish with a key support (9300-10 for now) for the mid term view still untested. This pair is still in a range for the year but willing to break free on the first chance it gets IMHO. Peace and GT

Washington MRM 07:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Bought GBP/US$ at 1.9660 for 1.9710.

USA BAY 06:56 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

OK, won,t short aud/jpy. thanks a lot. gt/gl

madrid mm 06:44 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
hello fx jedi

Japan Q4 GDP of +1.2%q/q - fastest in almost 4-years since Jan-Mar 2004, versus mkt expectation of +0.9%.

Japan Q4 nominal GDP +1.2%q/q. July-Sept revised to +0.1%, external demand contribution +0.2%, Q4 GDP Deflator -0.5%y/y, consumption +1.1%q/q vs poll of +0.8%. Capex +2.2%q/q vs 1.5% exp. Public investment +2.7%.

Econs Minister Prof Hiroko Ota says economic recovery is steady, but consumption still weak and flat as a trend.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki expects BoJ to look at various data, and not just GDP in setting monetary policy. GDP shows economy continues to recover. Consumption is basically expanding, but weakness remains. End of deflation is in sight, but will keep monitoring data. Govt is always communicating with BoJ closely.

LDP Policy Chief Shoichi Nakagawa says Japan growth is fragile despite the GDP data. Japan economy has not changed much in the past month.

JAMA (Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association) chief Fujio Cho, chairman of Toyota, says he expects current JPY weakness against other currencies to continue, given strong US and Europe economy and weak personal consumption in Japan - Reuters

UK RICS house prices balance falls to 28.0 in 3 months to January, lowest inflation in 7 months since June 2006.,

ECB Guy Quaden says the evolution of JPY, CNY is not in conformity with current accounts of Japan and China. EUR/USD rates are not in uncharted waters. ECB supports Pres Jean-Claude Trichet's "strong vigilance" remarks unanimously - Reuters.

NZ Retail Sales for Q4 +1.8%q/q. Dec +0.7%m/m.

JPY is the star of today on back of stronger Q4 GDP of +1.2%q/q, which raises speculation that BoJ may hike rates as early as Feb 20-21 next week.

Markets wasted no time in buying JPY, pushing USD/JPY down from 120.70 to 1-m lows of 119.77, lowest since January 11 low of 119.48. EUR/JPY dived from 158.50 to 157.44, further weighed by ECB Quaden comments that JPY, CNY do not reflect the current account of Japan and China.

US ($26.6bln) +eurozone coupons will continue to help weigh on USD/JPY, Cross/JPY today.Hearing Japanese importers, mega-city talks of Kampo, China buying on dips in USD/JPY, but interest still to sell as funds may unwind more short JPY carry trades, when Europe/ London come in.

USD/JPY offers still coming in at 120.20-30, EUR/JPY at 158 for now, while bids at 119.50, stoploss on break of 119.50, EUR/JPY below 157.00.

GBP/USD, GBP/JPY under pressure on softer RICS housing data + stronger Japan GDP, diving from 237 to 235.30-40 level. Stops blw 235.

EUR/USD steady, as focus on EUR/JPY selling, and could see profit- taking sales after recent moves to 6-week highs of 1.3152 yest. Not surprised to hear Sovereign, East Europeans offers 1.3150-60.

Hearing large Swiss names good sellers of USD/CHF, could see selling in EUR/CHF on back of EUR/JPY selling.

NZD/USD off post retail sales high as pair of US investment house and large banking group good sellers. NZD/JPY sold on unwinding, speculation BoJ may "overtake" RBNZ in hiking rates on Feb 20-21, b4 RBNZ's March8.

SEK eye Riksbank hike, in range 9.13-9.15, downside risks.

Nikkei closest at its highest level in almost 7-yr highs on strong GDP, +144pts at 17,897, high since May 8 2000. JGBs lower on speculation BoJ may hike next week, 10-yr +0.015% 1,740%

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.77/120.78, EUR/USD 1.3130/1.3143, GBP/USD 1.9622/1.9650, USD/CHF 1.2375/1.2403, AUD/USD 0.7826/0.7842, NZD/USD 0.6920/0.6948.

Sydney ACC 06:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:49 GMT February 15, 2007
USA BAY 01:27 GMT February 15, 2007

Hold off on the AUD/JPY short for the moment. USD/JPY chart looks as though it could reetrace back to 120.50, there is a support line that it has bounced off today that it hit on four separate occasions this year.

warsaw TOMi 06:13 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
katt, tx for tp kablovitz,appreciated

Syd 06:04 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Case for INR carry trades builds further, says HSBC, continues to recommend short positions in both USD/INR and TWD/INR; "the Indian rupee looks poised to break out of its existing ranges and we expect the currency appreciation of the past six months to continue through 2007," says bank. Adds, "the shift in interest rates in Asia in recent months, particularly the fall in IDR rates accompanying the rise in INR rates, now implies that INR offers the most favorable trade-off of yield and volatility in the region."

Edmonton Rob 05:57 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
My instinct tells me that the USD is gonna keep weakening. I think if the EuroZone comes out with data out pacing the US, the USD is gonna be beaten up pretty violently

NYC 05:38 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
"so many euro bulls to bury , in so little time..."

Washington MRM 05:37 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob

I agree... strategy for me is to buy dips - but dips are too shallow right now. Any thought on the breakout point for EUR to make its run- 1.3160?

I am still looking at 1.9655 for GBP/US$ run up to 1.9710 tonight.

Edmonton Rob 05:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 05:25 GMT

Something tells me you might be right, i think we might see the EUR/USD make a nice run at 1.3200 overnight

U.K. J.B. 05:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
some nice bearish talk around for the dollar , just as there was bearish talk yestrday around for stg last few days at 1.94....

Washington MRM 05:25 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 05:19 GMT

I think there may be large US$ selling around 2 am est when Europe starts to come in as there was yesterday. So, 1.32 possible tonight.

USA BAY 05:23 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
FX Parameters BY Ashraf Laidi

EURUSD breaks through its 6 week long consolidation at 1.3070, now facing resistance at 1.3175-80—the 2 month trend line resistance. USDJPY nears the 120.50 trend support, but we expect continued BoJ dovishness to provide a floor above the 120.00 figure. GBPUSD faces hefty resistance at 1.9650—3-week trend line resistance and 50% retracement of the move from the 1.9914 high.






Edmonton Rob 05:19 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have any thoughts on the Eur/USD short term? We thinking that 1.3200 overnight is possible? Or it is going to start giving up some of these monster gains?

USA BAY 05:12 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
[STG/YEN] is down from 237.05-10 to 235.35-30 after the GDP fray this mng. ...
[STG/YEN] is down from 237.05-10 to 235.35-30 after the GDP fray this mng. Actions at the low are a bit bottomish, but downside risk would remain intact unless the cross can recover through the quick decline zone from 237.05-10 or at least the mid level of 236.40-60. The 235.35-30 level matches the previous lows marked on Feb 13 and 06, and any weakness through there and the 235.00 figure would trigger further long liquidation form Japanese private investors with high leverage contracts.

USA BAY 05:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
gfhgfh
new comer,

I think you have taken a very good first step by joining this forum. The post here are good and there are many wonderful and experienced traders here who are more than willing to share their opinion here and it is very useful. Just remember forex is not a get rich quich scheme and remember preservation of capital. All the best. GT/GL

Ankara - Bodrum OEE 04:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
gfhgfh
new comer

I am not in a status to advise you Regardless I find the courage to propose that developing yourselves on not only technical skills but fundemantal issues can be of help. I would not opt to the view that holds tech analysis as the adequate tool on the road to success (which possibly also requires progressive, disciplined and persistent efforts to develop talent should there be one or not)

to dr unken katt 04:43 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
cableyen is headed toward support line
december / january that comes at 234 now , any opinions?

Syd 04:40 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
The New Zealand dollar closed higher Thursday, but shy of an intraday peak as stronger-than-expected December retail sales failed to push the unit through selling interest around US$0.6950.

Graham Parlane, associate director of foreign exchange concern Tricom, said the unit looks shaky heading into the offshore session as unexpectedly strong fourth-quarter Japanese gross domestic product data point to renewed liquidation of carry trades overnight.

Parlane said the Kiwi was "very heavy" against the Japanese yen late in New Zealand trading, which "could become a rout" later Thursday, depending on how offshore investors react to the GDP data.

He noted there is still a degree of skepticism toward carry trades given the nervousness that built up ahead of last weekend's Group of Seven meeting.

The New Zealand dollar ended at US$0.6936, above Wednesday's US$0.6907 local close, but shy of an intraday peak of US$0.6945. Against the Japanese yen it was at JPY83.34 versus its JPY83.81 open.

Parlane said standing sellers capped the Kiwi below US$0.6950 Thursday despite strong December retail sales.

Earlier Thursday, Statistics New Zealand said the volume of seasonally adjusted real retail sales increased 1.8% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter, the biggest gain since the third quarter of 2004. The number comfortably topped a 1.2% average forecast by 11 economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey.

Parlane tipped support for the Kiwi at US$0.6910 overnight, with resistance at US$0.6950. Against the yen, he expected a JPY82.40-JPY83.40 range with the "risks skewed to the downside."

Still, the local unit may receive some support from a private sector survey on house prices, expected Friday. The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand survey - if continuing the upward trend in average house prices of recent times - should lend support to talk of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate increase next month, Parlane said.

Government bonds closed higher, helped by a solid bond tender, especially for 2017 paper, a senior local bond trader said.

The trader said Thursday's retail sales report "pretty much" cemented expectations the RBNZ will hike next month, but said the market was unlikely to extend the gains Friday.

"Bonds are expensive, so I don't see us pushing much higher from these levels," he said.

to dr unken katt 04:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
new comer>http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/

Alaska Moon 04:30 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
gfhgfh Need help! 04:16 GMT February 15, 2007
========
Look on the left hand side of this page... click "FX Education"
There is a lot of good info on this site...
Good Luck,
Moon

New Comer keegan99k9 04:28 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Hello, I am a new Forex trader. A month ago, I started to trade using a demo account. I want to move to real money account. And want to learn about currency trading and foreign exchange. Please send me your tips, and it will be great help if you can provide me the necessary training or material that is good enough for me to study on my own advices, or any recommendations and books to read before I start. Thank you again

gfhgfh Need help! 04:16 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Hello,

I am a beginner in this forex market. I do not have much knowledge of how to trade with the currencies. There are so many screens and so many numbers. It is very confusing. The only thing I understand is, the currency stated first is the base currency, and is showing the value of that currency against the other. I am not much aware of the factors affecting the fluctuations in the values of the currency. Can anyone help me with this, please? I am also interesting in learning Forex trades and foreign currency exchange. Also what e-books are available for forex trading? Please suggest from where I can get best and brief things to learn on these topics.

Sydney ACC 03:23 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Turning to the pricing of risk in the markets, the big event of last week was not the G7, but a well-sourced story in China’s Southern Weekend newspaper, reporting that the Finance Ministry had approved the creation of a new institution, the State Foreign Exchange Investment Corporation, to manage China’s $1.1 trillion of foreign exchange reserves.

These reserves, growing by nearly $200 billion a year, have so far been managed by a department of China’s central bank, the State Administration for Foreign Exchange, and invested almost entirely in government bonds and other low-yielding but supposedly risk-free assets.

The new State Foreign Exchange Investment Corporation will have a very different mandate, including a diversity of assets such as overseas shares, and perhaps even property and direct investments in the West. Reportedly, an initial $210 billion in equity investments has already been approved. If the reports are correct, this could represent a sea change in global markets, and especially in the relative valuations of bonds and equities.

The build-up of China’s reserves, along with the additional $1.6 trillion of reserves held by Japan and other Asian countries, has resulted in a huge shift in the control of global savings. These unprecedented sums have effectively been from the portfolios of US private investors, who tend to buy in equities, into the accounts of Asian governments and central bankers, whose natural, risk-averse mandate, is to invest only in bonds.

This “nationalisation” of global financial flows, due to the US current account deficit and a consequent build-up of Asian reserves, probably goes a long way to explaining the so-called “conundrum” of the insatiable demand for bonds, even at ultra-low yields.

The obverse of this strong demand for bonds, even at seemingly unattractive yields, has been a lack of enthusiasm for equities, even at valuations that seemed quite cheap, at least in relation to bonds.

A less obvious consequence of the Asian nationalisation of global savings has been a paradox in attitude to risk.

While the risk premium between asset classes has risen (that is, equities pay a bigger than usual premium relative to bonds), the premium within asset classes has shrunk. That is, within bond markets credit risk is inadequately rewarded; and within equity markets high-risk cyclical shares are more expensive than large-cap companies with earnings predictability and lower risk.

At first sight, this contrast between risk aversion by macro asset-allocators, and risk-seeking by specialists within each asset class, really is a paradox. Yet on closer inspection, it is also a result of nationalisation of global savings through Asia’s reserves.

As Asian central banks push top-quality bond yields down to unattractively low levels, other bond investors have to seek better returns by taking on extra risks. Simultaneously, Asian state institutions whose mandates allow only “safe” investments, will be under pressure to spice up meagre returns on these instruments, by sprinkling portfolios with assets that look like fixed-income, but really carry equity-type risks. So our creative friends in the markets will devise instruments to give the customers what they want: evermore exotic assets such as credit default swaps and payment-in-kind bonds.

This is exactly what happened in the 1980s, when Michael Milken created “junk bonds” to satisfy US thrift institutions that desperately needed equity-type returns, but were allowed by regulators to invest only in assets looking like fixed-income “bonds”.

From this point of view, China’s decision to shift part of its reserves from bonds to equities could prove far more important to markets than anything on the G7’s agenda.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article1368960.ece

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:22 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
As you can tell from that 2004 post there was talk then about intervention and there is still talk about it. This goes to show that sometimes (most of the time) talk is cheap or if followed could be costly LOL. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:19 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
This is what I found on the archive (they do not lie and is the most powerful tool on this website IMHO) on my long term main objective of course that also changed once that was taken out. Peace and GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 00:54 GMT December 7, 2004
FWIW eur/jpy has broken the asymmetric bullish triangle formed over the 1 � past years and most important has finally closed above it (137.00-10). Next resistance here will be met around the 139.00-10, 140.20-30 and the top for 2003 140.90-141. Main target for this pair in the long run will be around the 153.80-90 area. This is of course technical and does not count on the intervention that everyone is talking about. With this bullish move on this pair this should help the bulls in the eur/usd pair complete the main objective (3500-30) set after this pair broke the bullish triangle several months ago IMHO. GL GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/jpy pair: Key support is found now around the 517.30-40 and main support at 156.50-60 area for now while the indicators unwind from O/B levels. This pair is buy on failed dips until the main support is taken out. This pair is over due for a correction in the mid to long term view (medium term key support is at 156.30-40) but no hints of one yet at all. My personal long term level was hit around the 156-157 area already so the sky is the limit here IMHO. Peace and GT

Syd 03:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
BEIJING (AP)--A northeast China court has sentenced a business executive to death for swindling CNY3 billion ($387 million) from investors in a bogus ant breeding scheme, state media and a court official said Thursday.
Prosecutors told the court that one investor committed suicide after realizing he had been duped, and only CNY10 million of the swindled money had been recovered by the time the case was filed with the court last June, Xinhua said.

The Intermediate People's Court in Yingkou on Tuesday sentenced Wang to death, said an official in the court's case office who gave only his surname, Yin.
Fake investments and pyramid investment schemes have become common during China's transition from a planned economy to a free market. Chinese leaders have tried to eradicate the scams, fearing widespread losses could add to already percolating social unrest.

Sydney ACC 02:49 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 01:27 GMT February 15, 2007
I'd wait and see how the market behaves when Europe enters the fray.
From a short term perspective AUD today (same as yesterday) as traded in a narrow 10 point range against USD, JPY has been very volatile after gapping 50 points after the GDP announcement it has traded in a further 50 point range in volatile fashion.
Longer term overall I think yes. JPY should firm up from here and Japanese investors should think twice about the carry trade. Historically USD/JPY has retarced aggressively.
There's AUD 2.6 billion of Uridashis maturing over the rest of this month and this may have some bearing on AUD's performance.
We've been up to 0.7900 and beyond on several occasions now since this bull run started five years ago but on each occasion we have failed to crack 80 cents. Option players and hedgers will make it more difficult each time to penetrate this level.
Taking these two scenarios together its probably not a bad strategy.

Gen dk 02:15 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 02:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Close rest of eur/jpy shorts here. it is quite possible that london could drive euro to 1.3200+ this evening and eur/jpy as a result COULD long back up

USA BAY 01:38 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON.

Check Hong Kong Qindex, he may have give a range. hope this helps. But I think 157.20 should work. others pls comment if I am wrong.

Edmonton Rob 01:35 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
What are you guys thinking about the Eur/USD over the next few days? I got punished pretty hard in it by being in a short position. Reading that 1.3300 is a possible level for this, what do you guys think?

Washington MRM 01:32 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Exited long GBP/US$ from 1.9630 at 1.9645 for better entry...

Holding long EUR/JPY... looking for a stop... any ideas?

USA BAY 01:27 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Do you think aud/jpy is a short at this level. thanks

USA BAY 01:25 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/USD] eased a tad from pre-data level of 0.7833 to an intraday low of 0.7...
[AUD/USD] eased a tad from pre-data level of 0.7833 to an intraday low of 0.7827 after Aust's Q4 house prices rose 0.9% vs market consensus of a 1.2% rise. The index was up 8.3% y/y vs consensus of 8.4%. The pair was affected more by the selling in the AUD/JPY cross by Japanese Sec Houses from the 94.60 level when a much stronger Japan GDP led to a sell-off in the JPY crosses. With market chatter resuming of a BOJ interest rate hike soon, the JPY crosses will be under pressure which will limit the upside for the AUD/USD. Local intraday specs were seen selling the pair above the 0.7830 level but dips to 0.7810/20 are now sought by real money funds with further buying orders at 0.7800 supporting.

NY RP 01:23 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 01:19
Ask Ota how he wants his eggs? LOL
This Yen story is a flip of the coin. Long term we all know this pigs wings are broken. Sub 100, just when? GL

Philadelphia Caba 01:19 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
[Dow Jones] Japan economy minister Ota's remarks about BOJ suggest that overall, despite strong GDP numbers, Tokyo wants BOJ to hold off on a rate hike next week; while she says policy up to BOJ, also expects BOJ to keep supporting economy through policy, wants BOJ to carefully analyze economy, prices; that last line is key, because government thinks consumption actually not that strong despite 4Q's 1.1% rise on quarter. Tokyo thinks that increase mostly marks rebound from 3Q fall, likely to put pressure on BOJ next week to hold off to make sure economy keeps recovering.

USA BAY 01:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
MUNICH HANS,

Sorry not sure of the bank. GT/GL

Atlanta South 01:09 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
Ref 00:50//Thats is what I was trying to convey, but I
thank you for your input as it is good to swap comments,
ideas & views with fellow traders. Gt

munich hans 01:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
usa bay dutch name you mean abn amro

Dallas GEP 01:07 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
THX Bay, hopefully it ain't over yet!!! LOL

USA BAY 01:06 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
[EUR/YEN] hit the low at 157.90 earlier. Despite decline through the 158.30-10 ...
[EUR/YEN] hit the low at 157.90 earlier. Despite decline through the 158.30-10 key zone, 157.85-75 continues to be the base created on Feb 13, and as long as the level holds, a decisive weakness through 157.30-20 would not be seen. On the other hand actions at the o/n peaks of 158.76/75 are toppish, and the latest quick decline zone from 158.50 to 158.10 or the mid level of 158.25-30 would be the immediate obstacle.

Syd 01:05 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Aussie House Price Growth Slows In 4Q

USA BAY 01:04 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP.

Congrats on e/j trade.

Syd 01:03 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
70%-80% Odds Of February BOJ Hike - Calyon

Calyon Securities chief economist Susumu Kato thinks BOJ rate hike next week much more likely than expected by market (which pricing in about 50-50 odds), says chance is 70%-80%; says if BOJ doesn't tighten, it's almost certain to hike in March because GDP data provided almost all evidence needed that tightening justified.

Dallas GEP 01:02 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Closed eur/jpy shorts from 158.70 at 157.90. Shorts from 157.93 are still working

USA BAY 01:00 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
[GBP/USD] initially dipped to an o/n low of 1.9455 after the dovish BOE inflat...
[GBP/USD] initially dipped to an o/n low of 1.9455 after the dovish BOE inflation report which predicted that inflation will dropped below 2% over the next 12 mths and then rise again above 2% over the medium term. BOE Gov King noted the inflation outlook is "highly uncertain" on acct of "uncertainty" about energy prices. The turnaround to an o/n high of 1.9642 came after the testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke to congress where he sees inflation easing over coming mths prompting traders to expect a cut in int rate the later part of this year. Data release in the UK saw saw the Jan claimant count of unemployment recede 13,500, the largest drop in 2 1/2 years and earnings growth also receded despite the current pay negotiations. Buying orders at 1.9600 by a Dutch name and selling orders at 1.9670 by a European name will dictate the range this session. Buying dips preferred today. UK Jan retail sales due at 9.30 GMT.

Syd 00:59 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Australian dollar falls vs yen as Japan reports stronger-than-expected 4Q GDP growth of 1.2% on quarter. AUD/JPY drops to 94.155 from 94.535 before GDP data. Dresdner Kleinwort analyst Adrian Foster says GDP data support a 25bp rate hike at BOJ meeting next week.

Washington MRM 00:57 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY

Thanks. Might try to exit trade by then per your advice and then re-enter depending on where it goes. gl/gt

USA BAY 00:50 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
ATLANTA SOUTH,

Just a thought, agree gbp/jpy without stop loss will zero your account at a faster rate as to other pairs. thanks

USA BAY 00:48 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON,

Hope it goes your way, uk retail sales due today. I will wait till uk data to enter. gt/gl

Atlanta South 00:47 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
Ref 00:24/// Your so correct & tks for the input. GT

Washington MRM 00:46 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY

Think GBP was more move due to King's comments - a bit delayed or spurred by Bernanke. Dips now seem shallow with a bit of interest to buy.

USA BAY 00:38 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
WASHINGTON,

I feel gbp/usd was a false bull move, more reeacting to Ben's remark, so not so sure about upside

USA BAY 00:37 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
I wish we could have some input fron London Gooner. Has not seen him since 2007.

Washington MRM 00:36 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/US$ to move to 1.9710 tonight, if not in asia, in Europe.

Long at 1.9630 and waiting on break of 1.9655 to add more.

NYC EL 00:34 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
So what do we think about Cable & eur/usd ??? I am long

USA BAY 00:24 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
ATLANTA SOUTH,

NOT only gbp/jpy, even other pairs if not traded with stop loss will take your account to zero.

St. Annaland Bob 00:16 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   

xxx/JPY shows no lower lows then y/day ... yet ... happy trades

Atlanta South 00:14 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY drops 100 pips in 45 seconds. That pair has
taken accounts to a zero balance in as many second as
well.

Sydney ACC 00:11 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Anyone want to share the view on GBP, EUR, AUD and NZD verus USD.
FWIW my opinion these currencies have borne the brunt of the USD adjustment until now maybe we will now see some earnest appreciation of JPY, therefore the others will weaken during this process.
Anyone care to agree?

CT PT 00:08 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia caba,
what do you mean?
I want 150..lol
Any idea what's the target downside?

Syd 00:07 GMT February 15, 2007 Reply   
Australian Total Pay Indicator Slows Sharply In Feb Quarter
Wage growth pressures in Australia eased sharply in the year to February, according to the University of Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic & Social Research.

Total Pay Indicator growth decelerated to 1.6% in the year to February, compared with 3.8% in the year to November 2006, it said in a statement issued Thursday.

Of those reporting changes in pay, the largest group was full-time workers and those on individual contracts.

The slowdown in wages growth was in line with recent signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia that interest rates are on hold for now as inflation moderates.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is expected to confirm the position of the central bank when he appears before a parliamentary committee in Perth next week.

The RBA raised rates three times in 2006, leaving the official cash rate at a six-year high of 6.25%. Concerns about wages growth formed part of the reason for the aggressive policy action

 




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