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Forex Forum Archive for 02/16/2007

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Gen dk 22:18 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney ACC 21:36 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Moskow sounds hawish on interest rates:

``My assessment is that the risk of inflation remaining too high is greater than the risk of growth falling too low,'' Moskow said. ``Some additional firming of policy may yet be necessary to address this inflation risk.''

The FOMC has kept the benchmark lending rate at 5.25 percent since August, when it suspended a two-year campaign of increases in borrowing costs. Moskow, a voter on rates this year, decided with other policy makers to keep the rate unchanged at the Jan. 31 meeting.

``We need to be careful to watch for the emergence of the economy-wide strains on resource utilization that can increase inflationary pressures,'' Moskow said. Such an increase would ``be of concern,'' he said, because ``I view inflation as already being too high.''

Moskow is a voting member of the FOMC.

Sydney ACC 21:10 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 19:38 GMT February 16, 2007
RBS in their weekly sterling report advise that the interest markets would view a 7-2 vote as hawkish. With this in mind, yes some of the shorts will look to reduce their expsoure prior to the release. Nonetheless I believe a 25bp increase in May is still likely despite recent data.
Another item of concern is recent wage settlement data. The Daily telegraph ran an article Friday that wage settlements were at an eight year high with average deals at 3.5%.

to dr unken katt 20:29 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
siema amigo

warsaw TOMi 20:13 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
heard 9490 cable closing, still time for 7 pip push..
happy last carnival weekend!! ciaoo

Cannes Oil man 19:57 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Market sentiment changes on a flip..

Last week no one wanted NZD, GBPNZD was nearly 1K pips higher than atm...

Market on monday will have digested the news an readying itself for a new week , full of new data..

Good weekend.

Washington MRM 19:38 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
I think that with the BOE minutes on the 21st, there might be some covering of expectations early next week. Right now, market sentiment seems to be dovish on higher rates due to retail sales. Some may look to cover their dovish positions because of BOE's recent surprises. That alone should move sterling higher.

Anyone disagree?

Manilkara 19:31 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Today was the second largest volume of the week in gbp, and even with bad US data gbp was unable to go up...

For me the signals are mixed... I don't see anything YET that show me a rebound on gbp like to be long over the week!

But off course, this is just me.

NYC Ed 19:20 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Manilkara ...it's stuff like that , get's me uneasy on any pair? what about you.

Manilkara 19:17 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Most people are betting in a Pound rebound...so be very careful... nothing is for sure in forex...anything could happen...

NYC Ed 19:14 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
I appreciate the heads-up Washington MRM, what makes me uneasy is the Low Performance of the Pound vs. all Majors today??

Washington MRM 19:08 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed

I think GBP should increase from here - but I think that a better opportunity to buy will emerge. I will look to buy around 1.9480. If it comes today, I would take that into the weekend - if not, I'll wait. 1.97 should come early next week.

NYC Ed 19:01 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
It sounds like you "DOUBT" 9600? or am I just paranoid

warsaw TOMi 18:58 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Ed, if I may, if you manage to hang on to 9600, then keep on holding till 9700..8)

NYC Ed 18:36 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Not alot, I am looking to get to 1.9600

LKWD JJ 18:16 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
nyc ed what time frame?

NYC Ed 18:11 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Has anyone noticed that Cable has been SlOWLY making Higher Highs since 06:00 .
Do I dare go into the weekend HOLDING a LONG on Cable ??...Help...

LKWD JJ 18:10 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
usually quiet there, but you are right.

RIC fxq 18:03 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:49 GMT

floor has closed as of 1300 ET (1800 GMT) but Globex remains active until 1615 ET (2115 GMT) so technically it is still open.

LKWD JJ 17:49 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
another 10 min for imm to close, no?

Global-View Research 17:39 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
FX Briefing (BHF Bank)

LKWD JJ 17:38 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
$Y double top puts 117.80's on radar screen but might be a few days .....

Cannes Oil man 17:23 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Van JV:

http://gviforexblog.com/node/375

warsaw TOMi 17:22 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:17 GMT February 16, 2007
appreciated Cris, the target was met at 9480, 2nd was at 9462 which was missed by 1 pip, unles €uro drops itis all buy from here.

ps: however I'd like another dip to load up the truck..

Van jv 17:20 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man //
AUD and NZD daily show nice flag zig-zag descending formation-.....//correction..

CT Cris 17:17 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
correction
if not exited below 19470.

CT Cris 17:16 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 08:58 GMT February 16, 2007
GBP.USD
19500 and 19400 will be seen today .first come 19500.

=======
still active if not exited below 19570.
if not today..it will be on monday.

Portugal camisa 16:59 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
bought cable 9504

PS: CMS DOWN AGAIN?

Charlotte TH 16:51 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
sold nzdusd here at 0.6975 adding to earlier at 0.6937.stops for two at 0.6995.

Makassar Alimin 16:49 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
bought gbpusd 1.9505, stops under today's low

Cannes Oil man 16:37 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Last week , NZD was black sheep , this week it's GBP..
However US$ still goes down against Conti's and com's ccy...Only GBP$ is so far lagging behind..
I expect one of the massive catchup move in GBP next week , with 1 session regaining what the rest gained this week.
Great R/R (Like NZD was last week) , 1.9440 Risk T/P 1.97--1.98.
NZD$ : Still have 7030 as resistance on the chart , though with a hike coming in , NZD should keep firm...Particularly against AUD and US$...Still an excellent long as long as 6900 doesn't break.
Stay long 6790 (also 6925 now , added , as per the plan look archive or look GVI).

E$ :

1.3160 is the next resistance , though even closing the week above 1.31 is a big factor for further gains (even without breaking 1.3160 today)..

$/Y no change from last week :
no change going down(119.5---117---114---108).
EY going down , though as e$ is moving up downside is limited.


gl gt and good weekend.

UK Alex 16:35 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 16:30 GMT February 16, 2007
Happy Lunar New Year!

HK REVDAX 16:30 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Goodnite...Kung Hei Fat Choi(Wish you get rich!!!!!!!!)

UK Alex 16:26 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/frank-presses-bernanke-bias-raise/story.aspx?guid=%7BD8788772%2D48E0%2D4B4C%2D9B7A%2DC5E621CBA91A%7D&dist=RNPullDown

warsaw TOMi 16:22 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
thank you Rye

Rye,NY et 16:17 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 16:00 GMT February 16, 2007
Eur/Usd, basis dailies...
Rye,NY et 18:36 GMT February 14, 2007
... we can look for, at least, a short-term uptrend, if not a return to the long-term trend." For the last week, daily lows have been hitting Bullish trendlines. With today's upmove , the market is now in the upper 10% of the Bearish Channel. The primary Channel Resistance comes in on Monday at 1.3215. A clear break of that level will confirm the Bullish view over the short to medium terms.
___________________________________________

I still hold this view--looking for a test of 13215. We could, however, pull back from anywhere here up to that level.
If the market pulls back, I would expect it to drop to the .618 of this s/t move, which would come in over the next week or two at 13060-13080. ...Good Trades...

PAR 16:12 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Looks like not a single bank in USA dares to stay long dollars over the weekend after a week of such bad US economic numbers . Have a nice weekend .

warsaw TOMi 16:00 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
RYE, where do you see the pips now? appreciated as usual,ta

Rye,NY et 15:55 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
imho=in my humble opinion
imvho=in my very humble opinion

NYC Ed 15:53 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
a little help ? what does imho mean thanks

Cannes Oil man 15:52 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
We should see 1.97 and 1.98 in the following weeks , if current levels are holding (1.31 e$ , GBP 1.9450).

Looks like it will be a slow friday.
gl gt

UK Alex 15:47 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Commercial property market slowing in UK. Buy-to-let market getting tougher as higher mortgage repayments eat into profits and market becomes more competitive.

HK REVDAX 15:34 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 15:01//i think the northward journy has run out of steam and will roll over towards the end of today. I don't know how you get that 1.24** number but i hope you see that number before it goes belly up. I got out at 1.2380 though the highest shown is 1.2381. Great broker!

warsaw TOMi 15:33 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 13:28 GMT February 16, 2007

so far, working good, need a 23400 to print on a cable bounce/

GA GC 15:31 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Thank very much Martin. I enjoyed you posts many years and I really apreciate your help in this case. Jay, I did not mean to discuss dealers. I just need help from professional traders.

GVI john 15:19 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
GC- Discussing brokers is not permitted on the forums. If you would like anyone can email [email protected] for help on broker questions.

Thanks.

madrid mm 15:05 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Zzzzzzzzzzzz

madrid mm 15:05 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
holiday mood imho with president´s day on monday

UK Alex 15:03 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
FTSE-100 selling hits post U of M.

jkt-aye 15:01 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Revdax 14:40
still bias on north journey ?
my magnetic price level show 1.2426 on hourly basis.

LKWD JJ 15:01 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
93.3 is better than rumor

madrid mm 15:01 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
uom 93.3 vs 96.9

LKWD JJ 15:00 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
looks like mkt doing chop chop looking for stop stop

UK Alex 15:00 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
The rumor Mill has the U. of Michgan number coming in worse than expected. That is why we are seeing this dollar sell off at the moment.

LKWD JJ 14:58 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
leak in u of m?

KL KL 14:48 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
in long gbpusd 1.9489 sl 79 ...lets see

London Gooner 14:48 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Thanks

GVI john 14:46 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
118.98

Bratislava 14:46 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 14:40 GMT February 16, 2007
My platform says $J low: 118.97.

London Gooner 14:40 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Could someone confirm to me the usdjpy low today - I have 118.98
Thanks in advance.

HK REVDAX 14:40 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
If my reading were correct, $/CHF would be expected to roll over towards the end of today's trading session. Views?

UK Alex 14:38 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo - the city that never sleeps.

Atlanta South 14:36 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Out of Gbp/Usd short from 9567 tp @ 9467. Not willing to
hold over weekend. Done for the week now. Gt/Gl

UK Alex 14:30 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:18 GMT February 16, 2007
I just know that it's large and whoever it is seems quite happy to sell there.

jkt-aye 14:30 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 11:38 GMT February 16, 2007
London Gooner 11:10 GMT February 16, 2007
...
Monday or Tuesday would be a good time to start a new GBP
=================
agreeee..., plan to play on short usd on every bounce with stop on new high/low depend on which pairs.

hk ab 14:22 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
PAR, you may call BOJ in need. nice ATM machine.

hk ab 14:21 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
very impt support for weekly chart dl/rjpy 118.80

hk ab 14:18 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Alex, any size info?

btw, gold has been following dlr/jpy pretty well for the past 2 days.

UK Alex 14:10 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
PAR 14:08 GMT February 16, 2007
With you on that PAR.

UK Alex 14:10 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Usd/jpy could not make it back above the 119.45 level. We hear a large US bank out of Tokyo sold a good amount up near those levels.

PAR 14:08 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
US housing data distorted by erratic US weather.

St. Annaland Bob 14:08 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
I hope the calculation of this observation is better ;)

as long USDJPY trades above 119.20 and EURJPY below 156.50, the pressure remains on EURUSD and may bring it towards the stops province.

madrid mm 14:03 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
* U.S. Housing Starts Plunge to Lowest Level Since '97 on Glut, Cold Weather

* Producer Prices in U.S. Fall 0.6 Percent as Oil Declined; Core Rate Rises

* Treasuries Climb as Housing Data Raise Bets Fed Will Cut Interest Rates

* U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline on Comcerns Over Pace of Economic Growth
bloomberg.com

london phil 14:01 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
what was the news alex it sneaked right past me

madrid mm 14:00 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
i am buying large at +/-119 on my demo PAR 8-)

UK Alex 14:00 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
We think BOE March rate hike is back on. There was some good news which sneaked in below the radar today.

Halifax CB 13:58 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:36 GMT February 16, 2007
Well, you've got a bit of a move on now. If it continues drifting up during the day, I'd look to sell it early next week.

PAR 13:57 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Any japanese intervention ?

NYC Ed 13:55 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
anyone BUT me Short Cable ??

Charlotte TH 13:41 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:38 GMT February 16, 2007
CT Cris 09:23 GMT February 16, 2007
Are you sure?

******************************

Cris is always sure.

UK Alex 13:38 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:23 GMT February 16, 2007
Are you sure?

to dr unken katt 13:37 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
eur/gbp moves 5 pips a day cableyen 200 , youre rite its risque

hk ab 13:36 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad is so stalled today.

NY Ed 13:32 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
OH WELL NEVER MIND !!!

Maribor 13:31 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 12:18 GMT February 16, 2007

Eurgbp may only show difference in movements of gbpjpy and eurjpy and may not tell whether gbpjpy will go up or down. Gbpjpy is too risky for me. I like holding eurgbp long, as it has room to rise in my analysis.

NY Ed 13:30 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Morning ALL. Cable ! I am looking at a 4 hour H&S with a break up at 9525 and Break down @ 9507.
With PPI am I over cautious about going SHORT, I would love to go LONG, any thoughts any one???

to dr unken katt 13:28 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
cableyena is down to 2300 tomik

yen opened the flood gate , i think we ll face massicve unwinding of dat carry trades as traders face shrinking profit

GVI john 13:22 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
At 13:30 GMT (08:30 EST), January PPI is due (see -0.5% vs. +0.9%; ex-food and energy +0.2% vs. +0.2%). Also January housing starts are projected at 1.6mln vs. 1.642mln in December.

teh 13:20 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
come on bob, its your duty to reveal the identity so we know if these are genuine posts

Cannes Oil man 13:15 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NZD is so far oblivious to Yen firming , could see 7030 today if conti's make even a mild push to the upside..

Still 1.3150 rolling off (E400 payout)..Not much longer to wait..

gl gt

St. Annaland Bob 13:12 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NYC 12:38 GMT February 16, 2007

in the future, I will just ignore you exactly as purky did ... even the fact that I know who you really are (will not expose you, as the multi masks you use may be part of your treatment subscription), I will let you go away with it in the future, it's not my duty to take off the hot air from the balloon (your life).

jkt-aye 12:53 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
so i assume there is still 50:50 chance. do we need to flip a coin ?
btw my magnetic level for usjy 119.70, eujy 157.30, bpjy 234.6, sfjy 96.80 ... how is the chance to get there, any comment are welcome. gtgl

St. Annaland Bob 12:52 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Cape Town 12:32 GMT February 16, 2007

sorry, I translated percentages wrong. almost 10% over the 50% translated into 9/10 ... sorry again!


NYC ... I will not be rude towards clown who his (cheaply bought) wife uses his brains as doorstop.

Cape Town 12:40 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Sorry, small correction /// My data for the period 1 Jan 2001 to 31 Dec 2006 shows:

a) 25 days with a gain and 33 days with a loss following a loss in JPY of 1% or more the previous day.

b) 27 days with a gain and 28 days with a loss following a gain in JPY of 1% or more the previous day.

NYC 12:38 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Cape Town 12:32 GMT February 16, 2007
i think Bob got the yen confused with his daily cannabis intake ....

Cannes Oil man 12:34 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
It's going to be the 4th day today of downside, not the first day..So 9/10th only applied on 3 days ago.

Cape Town 12:32 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Re St. Annaland Bob 12:21 GMT February 16, 2007 - my data for the period 1 Jan 2001 to 31 Dec 2006 shows 25 days with a gain and 33 days with a loss following a gain of 1% or more the previous day. Unless I'm doing something wrong, 9 out of 10 doesn't seem right.

St. Annaland Bob 12:21 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
in more than 9 of the 10 cases, JPY makes another gain day after gaining more than 1% the previous day ... fwiw

warsaw TOMi 12:18 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 11:50 GMT February 16, 2007

actually longed gbpyen 23244 and 23233,so it better not, gl/gt

see cable spike to 9523,then will see.

melbourne DC 12:13 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
BoJ next week ... from other analysts ...
leak/signal/media over the weekend if hike? 12p hike?
Have a good weekend ... and Happy CNY .. oik oik ..

Maribor 11:50 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 11:25 GMT
My guess is eurgbp still has more than 100 pips to go, so buy dips and hold.

Athens MK 11:38 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 11:10 GMT February 16, 2007

GBP/$: Still looking for that one leg lower before before a corrective rally ensues... 1.9360-80 would be a nice start...

Monday or Tuesday would be a good time to start a new GBP rally... :)

UK Alex 11:36 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/spains-bbva-buy-compass-bancshares/story.aspx?guid=%7B2193D244-98A2-445B-AA4B-13D4704C355A%7D

UK Alex 11:33 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
M&A weighing on Euro/USD atm.

Atlanta South 11:32 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
I'm short Gbp/Usd from 9567...can someone give their views
on how deep this could go as I am considering tp near 9457
level if seen. Tks & gt.

warsaw TOMi 11:25 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
eurgbp,short term uptrend may be over with rejecting 6740,unless it breaks decisively for 6820, it can be set to a free fall from now.

warsaw TOMi 11:21 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 11:10 GMT February 16, 2007

yes, BIG time is coming soon for cable.

UK Alex 11:12 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Syd, I saw it earlier on DJ.

London Gooner 11:10 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD.
Using 4hour chart for detail, market is in possible complex inverted SHS. Take 1.9260 as head and both shoulders get clearer on eitherside. 1.9750 neckline. Even if prices went above twice it was only for very short time (few hours).
As we can't claim Cable is roast yet, there could be very smart money using 1.9450 area to long.
I prefer to be long here to be in, stop loss up to individual apreciation -
less than 50 pips not worth it and over-exposure as well. Safer to plan using an add-on trades strategy if scenario develops in days ahead.

Atlanta South 11:10 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd daily range...3199 caps high & 3037 holds the low.
Just my views & not recommendations. Any views & comments welcomed. Gl & Gt to all.

Syd 10:52 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
EU Almunia: Yen Trading Below Long Term Equilibrium Rate

Syd 10:44 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Ldn Alex

Want a reason to dump USD/JPY? Bear Stearns might have it. The bank suggests that if the BOJ is going to hike next week, it will likely leak a move to the press over the weekend. With the US on holiday on Monday, that would be a good low-volume day to spark a big move. "A combination of the US holiday, speculation about a rate hike and an aggressive hunt for stops could combine to produce a USD/JPY rout on Monday," the bank warned.

CT Cris 10:39 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
USA GB 10:24 GMT February 16, 2007
CT Cris what do you think of eur.gbp?

=====
uptrend

TR 10:33 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
long

USA GB 10:24 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris what do you think of eur.gbp?

Auckland trotter 10:19 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Still waiting to see if the EUR/USD breaks 1.3114 for more down.

The price has been testing the 1.3135 on the 5 min 12 hour chart - the I4 pivot on the daily chart is 1.3136.


Ref previous post - taking pips where I see them using leverage on the trade.

Certain aspects I don’t understand - but learning from the forum and other references.

UK Alex 10:17 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Wonder whether the Bank of Japan will do a press leak over the weekend?

NY RP 10:14 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 05:29 GMT February 16, 2007
Thanks for the detail comp. of the Dollar Index.

UK Alex 09:51 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
‘Education, n. That which discloses to the wise and disguises from the foolish their lack of understanding.’ Ambrose Bierce (1841-1914)

Plovidv Gotin 09:41 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Euro 1.3113, 7:2 up.

Gen dk 09:33 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 09:27 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
In the FED s non inflationary economy Microsofts new Vista is probably to expensive to sell hence their warning .

Plovidv Gotin 09:27 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
If not--->1.2380/95...1.2412/32/77/93...1.2556. Important sup r 1.2344/1.2337.

warsaw TOMi 09:26 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:23 GMT February 16, 2007
yes, I was waving 9500 bye bye on a way down to 9480 8-)

good day Cris!

slv sam 09:25 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Plovidv Gotin 09:17 /
If not? GT

CT Cris 09:23 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 08:58 GMT February 16, 2007
GBP.USD
19500 and 19400 will be seen today .first come 19500.

=======
did you see 19500.?

Auckland trotter 09:22 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading the EUR/USD down - ref: previous posts.

A level of resistance I have, if the price breaks my previous posts, is - 1.3043

It is a level of interest on the 4 hour 20 day chart, with , the I6 pivot on the 1 week 3 year chart of 1.3042.

Looking at this level as a resistance for this trading session.

The open of the UK market has show shown some interest. Looking for the bounces. Looks like some profit taking at the end of the week, so will have to wait for the market to settle down.

We shall see.

HK REVDAX 09:22 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Plovidv Gotin 09:17 //i do notice 1.2366 is a resistance level at the 10 ma.

Plovidv Gotin 09:17 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Revdax/ if 1.2366 hold-->1.2318 at leasst then 1.2300/1.2290/75/55..1.2180/30.

slv sam 09:11 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 09:04 GMT /
Well put Revdax!
however your today anticipation is very likely imo!Gt

HK REVDAX 09:04 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 08:54//It was an anticipation, not a prediction, and it came about after reading the monumental analysis of several well known fx experts. Looking back in retrospective, none of them is as good as a 12 years old kid throwing darts....LOL

Gen dk 08:58 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

CT Cris 08:58 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
GBP.USD
19500 and 19400 will be seen today .first come 19500.

slv sam 08:54 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 08:46 GMT /
:) last time prediction of e/$ an avalanch worked but to the opposite direction! GT

lugano fc 08:53 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 16:24 GMT February 14, 2007
Miami OMIL (/;-> 16:12 GMT February 14, 2007

tks for the correction and advise.
160 is my pain-border on this short if possible depending on tommorrow asian session the stop could be then 159.50. is not a daytrade i can stay on train long time, if pain border not touched....
every thing who goes up.....at once must also come down...


closing 50% position rest stop 159.20
will reopen closed position at 157.50/80 if seen...

Auckland trotter 08:52 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 08:20 GMT February 16, 2007
If the EUR/USD breaks the levels on this posting, then will be looking at pressure to around 1.2955 from the 23.6% fib on the 1 week 3 year chart and the pivot on this chart of 1.2986.

Happy taking a percentage each trading session using leverage, from what I understand as a certainty of trade. Don’t look to milk the market.

Charlotte TH 08:49 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 08:46 GMT February 16, 2007
IMO...$/CHF has hit seen the low of today. Views?

-------
quite likely,yes.

HK REVDAX 08:46 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
IMO...$/CHF has hit seen the low of today. Views?

warsaw TOMi 08:40 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
cable 9480 fulfilled, aside now.

Charlotte TH 08:38 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
eurusd 1.3119,seems to have finally given up on the upside.

Baltimore Zoltan 08:32 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia:
Try this link and then change ccy symbols accordingly:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=NOKDKK=X&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=c&p=e20,e50,e100,e200&a=&c=

Auckland trotter 08:32 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 08:20 GMT February 16, 2007
Bit of a late posting, as the market moved will I was posting.

Profit where profit is.

Will see what eventuates, as I do not rule out some more up side for the EUR/USD. Just waiting for the down turn with indicators on the longer term charts approaching over bought.

Syd 08:31 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
PBOC To Raise Reserve Ratio By 50bps Feb. 25

China PBOC says it will raise banks' reserve requirement ratio by 50 bps from Feb. 25, second such move this year, showing that government still concerned about excessive liquidity. Timing of move a bit surprising after M2, CPI growth slowed down in January although policymakers have repeatedly flagged the need for further measures to soak up liquidity.

Sofia mik 08:24 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Hi forum, is someone know link with all DKK/XXX crosses charts?
Tnx& GL/GT

Auckland trotter 08:20 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
For the EUR/USD I see some correction. Trading down from the daily pivot of 13143.

At present looking pressure to S1 on the daily pivots of 1.3114.
23.6% fib on the 1 hour 5 day chart around 1.3119.

The expected consensus figure for the EUR and US appear a mixed bag. If certain traders “are desperate”, then I expect a few ups and downs for this session. But in the main, with the daily pivot having been tested before the opening of the EUR market, I see a correction.

Alor Setar MM 08:06 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Thanks a lot Zoltan..sorry for my ignorance

Baltimore Zoltan 08:03 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Alor Setar MM 07:57 GMT

It's President's Day, banks closed, ccy trading probably thin.

USA BAY 08:00 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, Is gbp/usd heading down. thanks

Alor Setar MM 07:57 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
What holiday is on Monday?( I mean in US)

Hong Kong Qindex 06:47 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CA Jhon 06:20 GMT - USD Index is traded in NYBOT. Check their official website.

Hong Kong Qindex 06:45 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:10 GMT - Gold : It is working on the barrier of 660.2* // 674.3

SINGAPORE GFX 06:24 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris,

Thanks Cris. That was a good call. What about the euro/uk session, where is gbp/jpy heading. Thanks

Syd 06:24 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
FX Asia: Australia Dlr/Japan Yen Cross Faces Double Whammy
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Staying long the Australian dollar-yen cross has been a safe and profitable bet for more than six years, but the party could end abruptly soon.
The interest-rate fundamentals that have propelled the cross are shifting, and a rapid unwinding of the trade could push the Aussie down to 75-80 yen by year end, some market watches said. As with other currencies backed by high interest rates, the Australian dollar's exchange rate against the yen has soared, touching a 10-year high in January, as traders borrowed yen, then sold the Japanese currency for high-yield currencies.
Official interest rates in Australia now stand at 6.25%, compared with Japan's 0.25%. Japanese interest rates and the yen have been depressed by an elusive economic recovery. But the outlook may be changing fast: After strong fourth-quarter Japanese economic growth Wednesday, currency traders are putting bigger bets on a further rise in Japanese interest rates, perhaps as early as next week. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of Australia signaled Monday inflation risks have eased and interest rates are on hold. More economists are tipping a policy shift, forecasting the RBA will cut interest rates later this year or early 2008.
As policies in Australia and Japan swing in opposite directions, pressure on the cross is building quickly.
Coincidentally, Wednesday next week will bring both the RBA and the Bank of Japan into the currency market's spotlight at the same time, and the outcomes will be closely watched.
I can tell you that there are a lot of punters in the market that are very nervous," a trader said. If the BOJ announces a rate hike at the end of its policy meeting on Wednesday, that will be just hours after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens speaks on interest rates in Perth. Stevens is expected to clearly indicate rates are on hold for now, albeit with some caution about drum-tight labor market conditions. The Australian dollar has risen by 70% in value against the yen since late 2000, and on Jan. 19 this year, it hit a 10-year high of Y95.76. At 0600 GMT Friday, the cross was looking battered and bruised at around Y93.68 after the yen on Wednesday posted its biggest one-day gain since June. The yen rally was fueled by the Japanese growth numbers which painted an upbeat picture of rising Japanese consumer demand, regarded as key for BOJ policy, economists said.
Japanese gross domestic product grew 1.2% in price-adjusted terms in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, faster than economists' forecast of a 1.0% rise.
"After the (Japanese) GDP data yesterday the market is putting a 50-50 bet on whether the Bank of Japan will lift rates next week," said Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ Bank. The Japanese growth data was significant for more reasons than just the fact that it laid the groundwork for the BOJ to hike next week, Morriss said. "It confirms that the Japanese recovery is on track...It also means the economy is normalizing so, over the longer terms, rates will be moving quite a bit higher."
ANZ tips three hikes by the BOJ by yearend and expects the Aussie-yen cross to close out 2007 at Y80.00.
A senior trader at a north American bank said the market has grown jittery about the Aussie-yen cross this week. "People are nervous about it, especially with the (Japanese) GDP which has put the focus back on the BOJ next week," he said.
"The cross is already off about 100 points, but there is a censored of a lot to go if the yen keeps going like this," he added.
Next Wednesday's BOJ meeting and RBA statement "is the real danger zone," the trader said.
John Horner, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank said the wheels for a sharp drop in the Aussie-yen cross are turning, but a Japanese rate hike is likely to occur only later in the year. The BOJ doesn't yet have a strong economic case to raise interest rates, and Japan's inflation may dip back into negative territory, he said.
But as 2007 progresses, the RBA is likely to send out increasingly dovish signals while the BOJ is likely to show a more hawkish stance. The currency market will react to these, which will push the Aussie-yen cross to Y75.00 by the end of the year, he said.
"When we get into the second half of the year we expect the data flow (in Japan) to start picking up and the BOJ to start sounding hawkish by the end of the year," he said.

CA Jhon 06:20 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 05:29 GMT February 16, 2007

What is your source for this percentages?

CA Jhon 06:18 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY Long at 233.00 with 234.20 TP and 232.50 SL
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/

CT Cris 06:14 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 20:54 GMT February 15, 2007
CT CRIS,

How further you expect gbp/jpy to drop currently 232.87. thanks

=========
hope the market answered you at 2145 gmt.

hk ab 06:10 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
thanks very much Dr. Q

what's your opinion on gold at the moment?

Hong Kong Qindex 05:32 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is trying to defend the possible trading range of 117.04 // 119.31*.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:29 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
The U.S. Dollar Index is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies. The six currencies and their trade weights are:

Currency
Currency Weight
%

Euro
57.6

Japan/yen
13.6

United Kingdom/pound
11.9

Canada/dollar
9.1

Sweden/krona
4.2

Switzerland/franc
3.6

to dr unken katt 05:16 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
i think its open for the test of 230 if it doesnt go higher from now

to dr unken katt 05:08 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
short the rally . watch the yen at 11950 , crucial level

hk ab 04:56 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 03:15 GMT February 16, 2007

JIMVHO, in my memory, dlr index was not made up with that high of euro (+40%) Just want to check out the real number.

SINGAPORE GFX 04:46 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
CA JHON,


The gbp/jpy trade was good call. What is your opinion on gbp/jpy and gbp/usd tonite though. TIA

USA BAY 04:42 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt,

What is your view on gbp/jpy tonite. thanks

Edmonton Rob 04:04 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Anyone thinking Eur/USD at 1.3110 is reasonable overnight?

Sydney ge11ja 03:57 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 03:15 GMT February 16, 2007

I would tend to agree with you on this one, my only concern is yen buying. There are a lot of yen/gold positions out there ie short yen long gold, which might work against the gold to $1,000 trade.
Soemthing to watch out for.

GL N GT

to dr unken katt 03:49 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NYC EL
cable is in the downward tunnel , yday hit the the upper band and reversed ,now the logical target is the lower band which comes at 9320both dayly and 60 min studies support this scenario
you gotta get some experience son and yuo re gonna be all rite
it aint no complete chaos ,there are rulez
humans don t like anarchy

NY RP 03:15 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Hey Guys. Gold is looking very good. 680+ in the cards. 2007 certainly looks to be the year of 4 digit gold. It wasnt long ago we were talking about (days ago) Gold at 604 and 630 to move higher. Now higher and looking better. Dollar index is looking weak but still in range. Many times a broad based dollar move will NOT happen without the Yen. Now that Yen is firmng it may give more ammunition to the bears. The US Dollar Index is comprised of primary Euro (+40%) and secondary Yen ( mid to high teens%). Lets go Dollar, up or down is OK.........did some one say U.S. STAGFLATION. GL

CA Jhon 03:06 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
My cal for
GBPJPY short at 235.00 with 233.50 target and 236.0 SL approved.
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/

Washington MRM 02:36 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NYC EL

I agree with bullish GBP/US$ view, but am not sure where the proper entry point will be. I am long small now at 1.9523 and will see how price develops.

SINGAPORE GFX 02:12 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NYC EL,

You have your own logic as to why gbp/usd will go upside and I may not share your opinion. so hold on to what you feel is good for you. nothing condesending about it. gt/gl

NYC EL 01:57 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX...Don't be condesending !!!

SINGAPORE GFX 01:56 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NYC EL,

Fine hold on to your long gbp/usd, makes perfect sense

Guadalajara JLD 01:55 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Any idea on EURUSD direction for today?
GL>

NYC EL 01:53 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
because the market has NO zense NONE, becuase there are NO rules, no consistent behavior and after a Bernake fallout, and PPI and all other NON Zense numbers how can we say this will happen ???

NYC EL 01:52 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
What zense ??

SINGAPORE GFX 01:51 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NYC EL,

Look at gbp/jpy and eur/gbp, you will get it. Dr Q's target does make sense. Anyway what makes you think gbp/usd will move up. gt/gl

to dr unken katt 01:49 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
becouse it makes zenze

NYC EL 01:48 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Why?

to dr unken katt 01:47 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 23:33 GMT February 15, 2007
GBP/USD : Heading Towards [1.9353].

thats the best statement here

Syd 01:25 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Oil price tipped to take a tumble

February 16, 2007

OIL will drop more than 30 per cent to $US40 a barrel in March and may drop to $US30 as rising prices for storing crude lead to a "breaking point" that forces speculators to sell, according to investment bank Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.

Oil will slide because greater investment in commodity futures has driven the market into "contango", according to analysts led by London-based Neil McMahon. The phenomenon occurs when futures prices rise above spot prices, often reflecting handling or storage costs.
"As storage fills up, storage costs rise and the contango widens," the analysts said in a February report. "At some point, investors will reallocate money away from the commodity funds, causing futures prices to fall."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21233001-643,00.html

NYC EL 01:25 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Ric, your right, but what happened, USD does show any more strnght today than yesterday Bernake said nothing of importance, why why why?

NYC EL 01:25 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Ric, your right, but what happened, USD does show any more strnght today than yesterday Bernake said nothing of importance, why why why?

RIC fxq 01:23 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
NYC EL 01:16 GMT

can you say "catch a falling knife"?

unless you have a specific price basis/reason to do so, for 10-20 pips, you might as well spin the wheel and hope for the best.

NYC EL 01:17 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
I should take typing lessons
about 10-20 pips

NYC EL 01:16 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have any thoughts on Cable Overnight?
I'm liking long @ 9531 for abnput 10-230 pips

Gen dk 01:14 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

RIC fxq 01:11 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 23:58 GMT

ah yes, a blast from the past - akin to us ex-bondie type and Joe Jett but with much larger consequence :)

Philadelphia Caba 01:04 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY and other JPY crosses are showing some bounce this morning on the back of Japanese importer demand going into the Tokyo fix as well as demand from investment trusts. Some 11 investment trusts are being launched today, including
Pictet funds specializing in EZ government bonds and equities, respectively. The subscription limit is a whopping Y100 bln for the bond fund and Y50 bln for the equities fund... (ifr)

USA BAY 00:32 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX

DR Q,

What is the upside target for gbp/jpy. thanks

USA BAY 00:13 GMT February 16, 2007 Reply   
[JAPAN"S DEC TERTIARY ACTIVITY INDEX] fell 0.4% m/m, worse than mkt expectatio...
[JAPAN"S DEC TERTIARY ACTIVITY INDEX] fell 0.4% m/m, worse than mkt expectation of 0.1% m/m fall. The index rose 1.3% y/y. Activity in the service sector was dampened by declines in compound services, info/communications, wholesale and retail trade, services and transport. The impact on the tertiary index was exacerbated by declines in 2 sectors which have large weights; ie wholesale and retail trade (25.8% weight) fell 0.5% m/m while services (20.3% weight) fell 0.3% m/m. On the plus side, eating/accommodations sector rose 3.1% m/m, medical care up 1.2% m/m and utilities rose 1.3% m/m. The soft tertiary activity, which has large weight of 60.4%, would also weigh on the all industries index for Dec due Feb23.

 




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