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Forex Forum Archive for 02/19/2007

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LDN 23:49 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:43 GMT February 19, 2007
t/p= Totally Pray...

NY Ed 23:43 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
london av....what is t/p mean? thanks

Washington MRM 23:25 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Bought GBP/USD at 1.9511. Looking for an Asian move back up to 1.9560.

London 23:24 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
http://www.fxstreet.com:80/technical/analysis-reports/daily-technical-briefing/2007-02-19.html

london av 23:06 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
short cable 19529, s/l 19612. t/p 19300

Syd 22:46 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Europe's economies Feeling brighter
Why can't Europe's economies catch up with America?
http://www.economist.com/daily/news/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8721374

Syd 22:37 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Courtesy Of
Mtl JP 21:02 GMT February 19, 2007 from GVI

Carry on living dangerously (The Econmist Feb 8th 2007)
Speculators and low interest rates have helped cheapen the yen, putting the world economy at risk

THE yen is perhaps the world's most undervalued currency. It is even cheaper than the Chinese yuan by some measures. Last week the Japanese currency hit an all-time low against the euro and its real trade-weighted value fell to its lowest since at least 1970, according to an index tracked by JPMorgan. But do not expect the G7 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Essen, Germany, on February 9th and 10th to spend much time discussing the yen, let alone to do anything to support it. The G7 should be concerned about carry trades not just because they could suddenly unwind and trigger financial turmoil but also because the yen's misalignment is distorting the world economy. The yen carry trade has amplified global liquidity (see article), further inflating asset-price bubbles across the world. The trade has also prolonged global imbalances by making it easier for countries such as America, Britain and Australia to finance their large current-account deficits.

http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8679006

warsaw TOMi 22:31 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 22:22 GMT February 19, 2007

trying, that's a good word, maybe good for set of another slump

Syd 22:24 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Australian Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd ahead of PM John Howard in yet another public opinion poll. Newspoll, published in today's Australian, shows Rudd preferred PM among 47% of those surveyed, compared to 37% for Howard. Labor leads primary vote with 46%, Liberal-National coalition with 41%. Rudd's approval rating surged to 68%, a record for an opposition leader in the 21-year history of Newspoll, the Australian newspaper says. PM yesterday claimed he could come back from poor polls, after Morgan poll found his Sydney seat in danger from Labor. Latest result sure to rattle Howard's backbench

Cannes Oil man 22:22 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
CT PT 21:20 GMT February 19, 2007

UP..I think GBPJPY and EY are bottoming , or at least trying too...Particularly on GBPJPY..

156.6---232 GBPJPY should hold the downside , Target 160--240.
gl gt

LKWD JJ 21:57 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
London 18:08 GMT February 19, 2007
GBP Slumps As BOE Mentions Possible Depreciation
=========================================
didnt stay there for all of today as is back above 195.

LKWD JJ 21:34 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
hope those that traded cable today took profits as mkt has gone back to closing level of fri.

CT PT 21:20 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Anyone has any opinion on Euro/Yen..both short & long term?
TIA,
GL/GT

RIC fxq 20:55 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
oops meant three not five

RIC fxq 20:54 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
five hours since the last post????????

London 18:08 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP Slumps As BOE Mentions Possible Depreciation

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The pound sank broadly Monday after the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee said the currency might have to depreciate before the nation's widening current account deficit could be remedied.

Sterling slumped as low as $1.9433 on EBS from $1.9526 before the remarks by the BOE, as investors dumped the U.K. unit, triggering automated sell orders, traders said.

The euro also hit a session high of GBP0.6756 from GBP0.6731 before the comments.

Some analysts said markets overreacted and downplayed the remarks as part of broader observations about current economic conditions, rather than a specific warning to the market about sterling strength.

The pound's move was also exaggerated by thin trading volumes, with many Asian players celebrating the Lunar New Year and U.S. markets closed for the President's Day holiday.

But sterling could remain soft in the immediate future, market watchers warned.

"I think the evidence is there that things are starting to cool in the U.K. and that is going to put sterling under pressure as the market starts to scale back its rate-hike expectations," said Ian Stannard, currency strategist at BNP Paribas.

The comments by the MPC were made in written evidence to an ongoing inquiry by U.K. lawmakers, looking at the first 10 years of the bank's independence and its control over setting U.K. interest rates.

"At some stage the current account deficit will probably need to close," the BOE said.

"At that point, in order to shift resources from the non-tradable sector of the economy into the internationally tradable part, some depreciation of the real effective exchange rate will probably be necessary," it said.

But analysts said the Bank was merely stating the obvious, and the comments should not be seen as the start of a new trend in market guidance.

"The Bank of England officials are very clear, and have been for some time, that the exchange rate is determined by the market -- they rarely jawbone the market," said Stephen Jen, global head of currency research at Morgan Stanley.

In the evidence, the BOE also noted that broad stability in sterling's effective exchange rate had been a striking and unexpected feature of the past decade.

"Many people expected the replacement of an exchange rate target by an inflation target to result in more, not less, variability in the effective exchange rate," it said.

This may be partly due to credibility of monetary policy framework, since "the value of the exchange rate today is heavily influenced by what it is expected to be in the future," the BOE said. "If the currency is expected to be lower tomorrow, then that will encourage traders to sell it, pushing down its current value.

"So a credible monetary framework will not only lead to stable long-term inflation expectations, but may also help to anchor expectations of future exchange rates," it added.

Cannes Oil man 17:54 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
I think we have high chances of seeing a big break out in GBP , over the next 2 weeks..Probably around 1.99--2.0.

We are already at 1.96 area , and a big shuffle could easily push 300/500 pips on GBP..

Might pull E$ around 1.34--1.36 (Has been target since 1.29)..

Cannes Oil man 17:49 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
LDN 17:30 GMT February 19, 2007

In a few days, you will see recom's to long GBP floating around , when prices reach 1.97 , meanwhile the funds, banks etc , will already be long , from around here, and will unload slowly as public learns of this opportunity...It rises a little more , then public runs out of fund , and the banks/models keep taking profit , prices goes down , banks /models /funds go long yet again, while public goes short..Cycles..

manchester 17:37 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
seems to be conflicting views on cable. If BOE voted anything less than 7-2 the GBP weakness over the last week will continue

LDN 17:30 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 17:24 GMT February 19, 2007
Which banks and model funds oil slick...stop talking thorough your asssss..

Cannes Oil man 17:24 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:30 GMT February 19, 2007
oilman, nt very good bargain of gbp ahead.

hk ab 08:52 GMT February 19, 2007
oilman, saw so many pips in your vault.
-----------
Hello Ab,

May the new year of the pig bring you more Health and prosperity..

Thanks for the kind word, and yes , $/Y , EY, NZD , and the next will be GBP to bring the pips this month in the oil man's vault..
Plenty of people shorting GBP , so it will keep rising , particularly that the market is far from being short atm , the extreme short GBP levels were removed right before it dropped 300 pips (no surprise) , so as prices move up this week to 1.97 and above the market will get short more and more..Till we have an extreme again , and market cleans out (though not before the shorts are killed , or at least 95% of them).

Another big (and fast)shuffle (Like the NZD just had) , will now happen in GBP , as banks , models and funds turn around (Will happen above 1.96).
GL GT.

RIC fxq 17:18 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:36 GMT

3 hour data on my prop mkt barometer hd it quite o/s as of 600 ET/1100 GNT

Bandung Panca 17:12 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
shorted cable at 1.9512...SL. 1.9560. gl

Cannes Oil man 17:09 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Stops to entry on GBP$ 1.9450.

Now waiting time for 1.97.

GL GT.

UK Alex 17:09 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Haha, you're such a wit!

Haifa ac 16:57 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:39 GMT //So was Goldie Hawn. (Bird on a wire, 1990)

UK Alex 16:39 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Trichet is on the wires.

UK Alex 16:36 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:30 GMT February 19, 2007
I was wondering whether it could be anything to do with the Scottish Power acquisition, escpecially as the deal was given the go ahead last Friday.

RIC fxq 16:30 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
FWIW: 4cast

Mon Feb 19 11:18:00 2007(EST)

* 19 Feb 07: 16:18(LDN) - FX NOW! GBP/USD, GBP/JPY Flows - Closing time?

It may be a US holiday, with very little price action, but it does look like there was a certain amount of activity during the last 20 minutes or so. A cynic might suggest that there could have been a little demand for GBP/JPY at the '4-o'clock fix', but though we hear of component trades with cable buying following a little EUR/GBP supply at 0.6750, and indeed of USD/JPY buying, the suggestion that it is/was GBP/JPY still only comes from one quarter. In the meantime, cable continues to push a little higher, with day shorts made after the BoE comments earlier in the day now being squeezed back. C.F.

UK Alex 16:29 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Any news on Euro/GBP?

Plovidv Gotin 16:24 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Ed/ This is Hi bid I have.

UK Alex 15:51 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD 1.1662

RIC fxq 15:49 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
MAL SEMIJI 15:00

USDCAD 116.62

UK Alex 15:45 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
MAL SEMIJI 15:00 GMT February 19, 2007
Euro/USD 1.3162

NYC Ed 15:34 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Plovidv Gotin any reason you suggest 3165

Plovidv Gotin 15:31 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
MAL SEMIJI 15:00 GMT February 19, 2007
E/$ 1.3165

tokyo ginko 15:28 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
establish short cad/jpy med term position here

HK Kevin 15:05 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:55 GMT, USD/JPY needs a close above 119.70 to form a bottom.

MAL SEMIJI 15:00 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
hello all, anyone know high for eur usd and usd cad for today ,,tq

hk ab 14:55 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Revdax, view on dlr/jpy? I saw a nice bottom in 4 hrs.

Mtl JP 14:07 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
US holiday should see subdued market today.

--

Invite forum to discuss pros and cons of Trading platform "Hedging feature enabled", on g-v's Help Forum.

HK REVDAX 13:39 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
NRB georgeo 13:28 //it is OK to long $/CHF albeit the overall trend is down.

NRB georgeo 13:28 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
What happened to the much anticipated dollar weakness today?? I am staying long hoping for some correction. Some brilliant ideas please.

madrid mm 13:07 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:52 GMT February 19, 2007

thx

Halifax CB 12:52 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
mm = 3 sets at 1330 GMT; - International Securities Transactions, wholesale inventories, wholesale prices

madrid mm 12:43 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
I believe we have some CAD No lately, am i right ? Thx in advance

CA Jhon 12:01 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD short at 1.9450 with 1.9370 TP and 1.9500 SL
MY today GBPJPY signal approved
http://censored/

GENEVA DS 11:59 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
I mean Love - affair with GBP for last 10 years could be over....

GENEVA DS 11:58 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
VERY INTERESTING.... Despite obviously very surprising comments from BOE... there seems to be NO GBP Bears around... could get ugly....

Gen dk 11:38 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London Gooner 11:10 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
London Phil.

God remark, sounds somehow risky from BOE to take currency opinion through deficit vehicle. Some market manipulation attempt it seems. Not sure how prolonged it will be though. we'll see.


UK Alex 11:04 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/Yen could be subject to more unwinding due to repositioning.

UK Alex 11:01 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
thin markets = exaggerated moves

denver jake 10:59 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Yes Phil that's true. Of course forex moves are based on interpretation and sentiment. It'll be interesting to see how the rest of the day unfolds. With no other data, whether NY follows thru with this move or there's a complete reversal. With gbp/jpy looking so sick and BOJ 50/50 on the horizon I think 19380 will be tested.

london phil 10:52 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
yes i saw that comment as well jake but the boe job is to combat inflation using the only tool they have interest rates they will not use interest rates to control current account deficit so surley more weight must be given to the inflation news as opposed to the currecnt account news anyway time will telll short pops to 1.9530 above there is posotive for higher

UK Alex 10:47 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Core inflation is set to rise over next 12 months.

denver jake 10:47 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
main driver of this spike is comment that basically said lowering interest rates may be needed to correct the current account deficit

Sydney ACC 10:46 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
london phil 10:40 GMT February 19, 2007
The same may be said for almost every other country as well. We are running to the end of the great deflation bubble caused by the transfer of much of the West's manufacuring to China.
Watch out when the yuan appreciates and the price of much of our clothing, textles and footwear rises.

london phil 10:40 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee said some of the factors that have kept inflation in check over the past 10 years may be eroding.
Cheaper imports, globalisation and increased labour supply due partly to inward migration have all helped dampen inflation, it said in a written submission to the the parliamentary Treasury Committee.
"The environment is unlikely to be so benign in the future," the central bank said.


isnt that cable bulllish higher inflation

Gen dk 10:38 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LDN 10:37 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
You said tuesday in your post oil slick..

Cannes Oil man 10:36 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
LDN 10:32 GMT February 19, 2007

we will see if my 1.9450 entry by wednesday isn't tp'ing at 1.97?

Bahrain BAH1 10:34 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Next target for cable is 1.9400 then 1.9370/80 GL.

Syd 10:33 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
150 Birds Dead In Moscow Where H5N1 Bird Flu Found -Officials
MOSCOW (AP)--At least 150 domestic birds have died in suburban Moscow districts where the H5N1 bird flu strain was detected in the first outbreak close to the Russian capital, officials said Monday.

Russia's Emergency Situations Ministry said disinfection and quarantine measures were being carried out in five districts where poultry deaths were reported. The presence of H5N1 so far has been confirmed in two of them, it said in a statement.

LDN 10:32 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   

You jumped the gun again oil slick...as usual...kep it up...its very amusing.
Cannes Oil man 22:20 GMT February 18, 2007

madrid mm 10:32 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
who wants to be a Central banker 8-) ?

Central Banks Face Rising Pressure From Politicians (Update2)

By Simon Kennedy and Matthew Benjamin

Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- When politicians tried to pressure former European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg, he used to say: ``I hear, but I do not listen.'' These days, a growing number of central bankers worldwide are hearing a lot -- and some are listening.

The Bank of Japan refrained from raising interest rates last month in the wake of government pressure. The autonomy of banks from Ecuador to India is under attack. French presidential candidates are demanding the ECB meet a goal for growth

Click here

hk ab 10:30 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
oilman, nt very good bargain of gbp ahead.

msia 10:28 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
8450?????

melbourne DC 10:28 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:20 GMT February 19, 2007
u r most welcome . all the best.

Cannes Oil man 10:27 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Nice GBP , dipping.

Bought GBP 1.8450.

Auckland trotter 10:23 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Suddenly we have some price action. Has the UK market finished their tea break? - Ha Ha.

hk ab 10:20 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
thanks DC.
What a dive......eur/gbp could fly to .70 soon?

melbourne DC 10:19 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
21:19 *DJ BOE: Effective Labor Force Unlikely To Grow As Rapidly Ahead
19 Feb 2007
21:17 *DJ BOE: Some GBP Depreciation Needed To Close Curr Acct Deficit

hk ab 10:17 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
what's wrong with gbp?

Athens Jimmy Dapenis 10:11 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Helsinki iw 10:05 GMT February 19, 2007
Yes...its "" jump leapfrog too low day"in greece. A national past time and holiday.

Helsinki iw 10:05 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Morning all.

Can anybody advise as to whether there is a holiday in Greece today? Sorry for off-topic post in advance.

Syd 09:52 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Housing cost 'causing mounting strain'
LINK

Auckland trotter 09:36 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Looking at down pressure for the EUR/USD towards around the weekly pivot of 1.3083, with a 38.2% fib on the 4 hour 20 day chart around 1.3085.

UK market still has to settle down, so we shall see.

Pips where pips are for now, and if the market gets choppy, I will use the RSI (5) on the 5min 12hr chart.

Possible up tomorrow, with favourable consensus fundamentals for the EUR, and some possible up pressure still from the technicals. Therefore not looking at this point for a major down turn in the price.

Syd 09:32 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
A Bank of Japan rate hike on Wednesday looks more likely that not. Japan's overnight call rates continued to trade above their 0.25% target, despite a large injection of funds from the Bank of Japan. In itself, this spells just market caution rather than market certainty about a move, says Bear Stearns. Also, the bank notes, government ministers have "piped down" their comments on policy, but this too may not mean that a rate hike is more likely. Even so, the bank adds, "we still lean towards the view that rates will rise."

hk ab 09:19 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Alex, that 119.50 is clear, where's next?

Syd 09:09 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY Could Be A Key Carry Unwind -UBS

Even if the Bank of Japan hikes rates on Wednesday, most analysts would agree that any reversal in carry trades will be limited. But, UBS suggests there could be one area of carry unwinding. "We are tactically short GBP/JPY heading into the meeting given the disappointing data in the UK of late," the bank reports.

Auckland trotter 09:07 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
For the EUR/USD I am now looking at the price to break around the 23.6% fib on the 4 hour 20 day chart of 1.3117 for more down indication as this appears as a resistance level on this chart.

Auckland trotter 08:53 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
I see a correction for the EUR/USD, with no fundamentals due out for the pair today, and the US market closed. But am aware of some more possible up pressure.

The price has hit the daily pivot of 1.3157 during the Asian session, and is now breaking a level on the 5 minute 5 day around 1.3143.

Looking at levels to trade down to, for which I will watch the market ‘action’ for.

Of recent times the Asian market has appeared out of sync with the EUR,UK and US markets - any comments? I have taken profit before the opening of the Asian market because of this rather than let a trade run, and then reassessed my position to re-enter.

hk ab 08:52 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
oilman and Dr. Q, Kung Hey Fat Choy!

oilman, saw so many pips in your vault.

Gen dk 08:17 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 08:03 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : A projected barrier has been established at 1.3162 - 1.3167.

madrid mm 07:25 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
bloomberg.com

Currencies

Yen Trades Near Six-Week High as Bank of Japan May Raise Interest Rates The yen traded near a six-week high against the dollar on speculation the economy is strong enough to prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates this week.

Singapore Dollar May Rise to Decade High on Inflation, Growth, ING Says Singapore will engineer the strongest currency in almost a decade to limit price gains as economic growth improves and inflation pressures mount, said ING Bank NV.

Americas

Central Bankers Face Rising Political Pressure, Risking Inflation Increase When politicians tried to pressure former European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg, he used to say: ``I hear, but I do not listen.'' These days, a growing number of central bankers worldwide are hearing a lot -- and some are listening.

censored Bank Uses Options to Bet Dollar Will Rally After Bank of Japan Meets Options traders at Denmark's censored Bank A/S are betting that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged at a meeting this week and the dollar will rebound from a one-month low against the yen.

Europe

Ruble May Gain as Putin Uses Clout in Oil, Natural Gas to Boost Exports The ruble rally shows no sign of abating as President Vladimir Putin continues to exploit Europe's dependence on Russian energy with a policy of ever-rising natural-gas prices.

German Business Confidence Probably Declined on Slowing Growth Outlook German business confidence probably declined for a second month in February on signs economic growth will slow from the fastest pace in six years, a survey of economists shows.

Dollar May Weaken to 1.2230 Against Swiss Franc, Okasan Securities Says The dollar may fall to 1.2230 versus the Swiss franc this week should it break below 1.2310, said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co.

Asia

Indian Rupee Trades Near One-Year High as Global Investment Flows Increase India's rupee traded near a one-year high on speculation overseas investors are stepping up investment as Asia's fourth-biggest economy grows at a record pace.

New Zealand Dollar Climbs to 3-Week High on Rates: World's Biggest Mover The New Zealand dollar rose to a three-week high, the biggest fluctuation of any currency today, on speculation the central bank will raise interest rates from a record this year.

Australian Dollar Reaches 4-Week High on Widening Yield Advantage With U.S Australia's dollar climbed to the highest in almost four weeks on speculation the yield premium on local bonds over U.S. Treasuries lured investors.

madrid mm 07:18 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Most centres (bar Australia, NZ, Japan) shut for Chinese New Year holiday.

Chinese New year holiday confined trade in G20 FX to Australia, New Zealand and Japan.

Kiwi proving livelier than Aussie. Early session jump higher in NZD/USD the result of an out of the way quote on AUD/NZD that sucked sellers into the cross and subsequently forced stops to be tripped, also on NZD/USD. A second wave of buying late in the NZ session saw a major local name buying NZD/USD in size, at the same time that some Japanese investor interest in NZD/JPY was being seen (also talk of hedge fund demand on this cross). NZD/USD high of 0.7030 on this move before slippage in post-Wellington close trade.

AUD/USD fairly lifeless, meandering around 0.7875 all session. Light exporter sales and aforementioned AUD/NZD supply holding upside, though AUD/NZD interest switches to buy side in afternoon trade, cross recovers to 1.1230 from 1.1200.

GBP/USD spiked at the open (as too EUR/USD) but not, apparently, on any volume before sales from a UK clearer pushed it back. Mid-morning saw another move up, on reported eastern European demand, this time countered by a German name buyer of EUR/GBP.

Daily Telegraph (et al) report Qatar investment fund interest in taking a strategic stake in Sainsbury's - no more detail. UK's Rightmove Feb reading +11.5% yr/yr (+0.9% m/m) down from +13.5% last month.

Nikkei opens up with near 0.5% gains which by and large hold through the session (+0.48% to 17,961 @05:30gmt). JGB yields 1-2bps firmer (10yr benchmark +1.5 to 1.715%). In money market, T/N offered at 0.48% vs 0.25% OCR.

Sydney ACC 06:53 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 06:00 GMT February 19, 2007
Shaping up for a quiet day in New York's absence, notwithstanding USD's weakness there is a possibility we could see 1.3125. Range today 1.3120 to 1.3170.

CA Jhon 06:44 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY short at 233.40 with 232.40 TP and 234.00 SL
http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/eurusd_forecast/

Edmonton Rob 06:00 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Anyone think we might see 1.3125ish in the EUR/USD sometime overnight?

Syd 05:38 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD Blip On Machinery Accident - Trader
EUR/USD jumps from 1.3152 to 1.3163 in Asia on accident to trading machine of a U.S. securities company, says trader at major Japan bank; adds no fresh cues like news, economic indicators affect rate. Trading may be subdued later in Asia during Chinese New Year's holidays, ahead of BOJ rate decision Wednesday.

Syd 05:25 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 05:16 GMT thought it interesting on a quiet Monday and yes very true

dc CB 05:16 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:06 GMT February 19, 2007

it was inevitable that the press would recognize this change.

the primordial ocean with new predatory life forms emerging every where you look...approaching "singularity" as Kurtzweil predicts.

Syd 05:06 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
DJ FOCUS: Algorithmic Systems Threaten Role Of Futures Locals
By Adam Bradbery

The biggest trader in one of Europe's main futures contracts isn't a person - it's a machine. So is the second. And the third.

Trading systems that use complex mathematical codes to quickly weigh up a huge number of possible trades and execute them much faster than a human could are squeezing the independent trader as they change the way futures contracts are traded.

These big-ticket trading strategies are based on algorithmic trading systems, which have become hot property for hedge funds and bank proprietary trading desks over the past few years. They're also boosting exchanges' trading volumes, and revenues, and even reducing swings in prices.

But they are causing some locals, as independent traders are called, to abandon trading in certain contracts because they can't compete. Some locals are trying to fight back by using their own automated trading systems.

These traders, who tend to trade in far smaller amounts, are important to futures markets because they are more willing to take the opposite side of trades that reflect investors' long-term view, figuring they can profit from short-term swings. That helps keep trading liquid.



London AH 05:03 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR trading 1.3158 - 1.3224- stop 1.3143

ABHA FXS 04:35 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD DAY RANG..
UPPER 1.9637-65
LOWER 1.9360-88

ABHA FXS 04:28 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD
BUY @ 1.9540
STOP 1.9512
TAKE PROFIT 1.9620 RISK/REWARD RATIO 6.8 OK TO TRADE

Hong Kong Qindex 03:54 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
One can simply treat those quantized levels as pivot points.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:49 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Number marked with a parenthesis [xx.xx] is the center of a projected series. Those numbers marked with a star "*" are significant levels or quantized levels which are separated with a constant value from each other or a multiple of the constant value.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:19 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : the market is going to consolidate between 232.30* - [232.96] - 233.62. The initial upside targeting point is 234.93* and the intial downside targeting point is 230.99*.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:08 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 02:53 GMT - "Kung Hei Fat Choy"

Hong Kong Qindex 03:06 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : The market is going to consolidate between 2.4067* - [2.4109] - 2.4150*. the initial upside targeting point is 2.4234* and the initial downside targeting point is 2.3984*.

USA BAY 02:53 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

GONG XI FA CHAI. Can you please comment on gbp/jpy and gbp/chf please. thanks

Cannes Oil man 02:49 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
The Big NZD shuffle , I've been talking about when it was 67--68 in NZD is currently happening..
Fund models , banks, are now turning around , Could easily see the last high's(around 7090) before any kind of dip is happening.
The hike will be decisive for higher gains above 72 (I don't rule out a move torward 72 BEFORE the hike) , with everything indicating they are going to hike, people are turning around and prices are following, if no hike , huge unwound , or after the hike, when people have to wait another few monthes for another hike, NZD might be in trouble, or at least a dip but now , it's the big rush , nzd is taking any prisoners.

gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 02:35 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 1.9528* - [1.9563] - 1.9597*. The initial upside targeting point is 1.9667* and the initial downside targeting point is 1.9459.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:30 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 1.3132* - [1.3149] - 1.3167*. The initial upside targeting point is 1.3202* and the initial downside targeting point is 1.3097*.

Manilkara 02:26 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Qindex...your view on GBP? Thanks in advance.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:09 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : A projected resistant point is positioning at 119.64. The market has a potential to consolidate between 118.65* - 119.15 - 119.64*. In a fine details the range can beconverted into the followings : 118.53 // 118.70* - 118.94 - 119.05 - 119.17* - [119.41] - 119.64* ...

Sydney ACC 02:04 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
House price rises slow down as interest rates finally put pressure on the market

The Bank of England’s shock tactics seem to be working, causing house-sellers to lose confidence in the market, a survey suggests today.

Rightmove, the property website, said that asking prices for houses are rising at their slowest pace for this time of year for five years. Prices were up by 0.9 per cent in the month to mid-February, after the Bank’s surprise decision to raise interest rates a quarter point in January.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/construction_and_property/article1403355.ece

NY Ed 01:53 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ... what I see on the charts since Friday has been a gradual STEP up from the 9490 range to 9590, yes it has backed off a bit, but Bernake said nothing, and pound has been flirting with 9700 for a while now.
This better LKWD JJ..
I REAL do appreciate the straight talk,
Later Brother

LKWD JJ 01:50 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
no bother just trying to help. any news from uk as to why gbp up to 19560's? has since backed off to present levels but did i miss something?

NY Ed 01:47 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ... Your right, sorry I borthered you ...

Philadelphia Caba 01:40 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
[Dow Jones] An RBNZ rate hike when NZD/USD above 0.7000 may prove a "more testing proposition than many believe", says ANZ Bank, noting that while high commodity prices "insulating" large portion of export sector, 1H reporting season shows corporate sector troubled, with downside NPAT surprises exceeding upside 2:1. "There's been a clear message from currency-sensitive firms that the recent run-up in NZD has hurt." Though IRS market continues to price in 80% chance of RBNZ hike March 8, adds it's a "much closer call", especially as NZD/USD last 0.7007 with further squeeze toward 0.7100 likely if BOJ stands pat this week.

LKWD JJ 01:30 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
nyc ed get a life man... try to do your homework instead of cheating off others , because when theyre wrong youll blame them and not yourself which is only your fault. the posters here are not advising what to do but what theyre doing , like it or not. theres alot of good info here to put into YOUR OWN PUZZLE but start somewhere. folloow a simple ma crossover strategy and see if it helps you. trade small if you dont know what your doing cuz this mkt has no rules how far it can go against you. $y got the name viper not because it trads like sugar used to 15-20 pip range. same for gbpjpy called the beast. look at the daily range for cable 100-130 pips on avg figure if your going the wrong way how much can you expect to lose . being that the range is so big you might get a chance to get out at even or small profit depending on where and when your entry was. hope i was of help

NY Ed 01:20 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt and if you don't mind what number would you call rally thanks

NY Ed 01:17 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt Why ???

to dr unken katt 01:12 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
cable is sell on rallys

NY Ed 01:04 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH Thanks

Charlotte TH 01:03 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 01:00 GMT February 19, 2007
originally a sell.you might still get something in 9550's for the buy but would suggest not depending on that.

NY Ed 01:00 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Come On guys a little help. Cable Cable ??? Long or Sell

Sydney ge11ja 00:57 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ge11ja 00:56 GMT February 19, 2007

i mean highly unliely that flow will happen, I think it has either been rolled or done already.

Sydney ge11ja 00:56 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:46 GMT February 19, 2007

price action since Friday suggests that is highly unlikely

to dr unken katt 00:47 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
good target , im not using my charts but some free censored from the censored so aprox tp of 234 is ok

Sydney ACC 00:46 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:16 GMT February 19, 2007
Thats one load of Aussie due tomorrow then AUD 2.75 billion in total, but I would say if the cash is going to flow back to Japan it would have been hedged by now.

warsaw TOMi 00:40 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
katt, sleep time for me now, left 1 with stop 23295 for 23395 tp. cu mng europe .

to dr unken katt 00:36 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
too early .

NY Ed 00:32 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
?

warsaw TOMi 00:30 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
tx, squared 23352 , tia, looking to short around 23350-90

NY Ed 00:30 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Coemm On guys I am LONG Cable @ 9520, Should I Hold or Sell

to dr unken katt 00:28 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
for this move tp is 234.20-30

to dr unken katt 00:25 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi
loox like 230 on dayly

Syd 00:16 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:14 GMT no just the Jap ones

NY Ed 00:16 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS.... are you feeling REALLY strong on that trade

Sydney ACC 00:14 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:25 GMT February 18, 2007
My records indicate AUD 1.246 billion of Uridashis due tomorrow, EBRD -AUD 746 mill and IBRD - AUD 500 mill.
Does your AUD 1.5 billion include those?

NY Ed 00:12 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Even All....good weekend I hope was had.
Anyone BUY ME Long Cable 9515.....comments PLEASE

Charlotte TH 00:11 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
chf hadn't had a single good number last week or two.think ir is well primed to be sold across board.gbpchf and eurchf may be the indicators today for chf directio vis a vis usd.

Sydney ACC 00:11 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:01 GMT February 18, 2007
There was a similar opinion poll prior to the last election that predicted a similar outcome?
A few months ago one of the newspapers added up the opinion poll results between the two elections, Labor won something like 13 out of 15 on a two-party preferred vote basis.

UK Alex 00:06 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
The European Commission has approved the proposed GBP11 billion acquisition of UK energy provider ScottishPower by Spain's Iberdrola, on the grounds that it would not significantly impede effective competition in the European Economic Area.

GVI john 00:05 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3134	119.25	1.2342	1.9503	1.1629	0.7866	156.63
High	1.3146	119.58	1.2385	1.9540	1.1655	0.7868	157.05
Low	1.3094	118.98	1.2335	1.9464	1.1624	0.7836	156.24
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/16/2007					
5 day 	1.3078	120.46	1.2420	1.9511	1.1666	0.7811	157.54
10 day	1.3035	120.61	1.2435	1.9563	1.1747	0.7796	157.20
20 day 	1.3002	120.95	1.2458	1.9616	1.1776	0.7785	157.26
50 day 	1.3042	119.92	1.2363	1.9587	1.1704	0.7822	156.40
100 day	1.2942	118.76	1.2379	1.9326	1.1528	0.7751	153.69
200 day	1.2839	117.10	1.2357	1.9005	1.1357	0.7641	150.36

Syd 00:01 GMT February 19, 2007 Reply   
Net JPY Shorts Up In Week To Feb 13 - IMM Report
Latest IMM commitment of traders report shows net JPY short noncommercial positions vs USD rose to 167,505 contracts, 2nd highest on record, in week to Feb. 13 vs 128,526 contracts a week earlier. Bank of America economist and strategist Tomoko Fujii says net shorts may have waned after stronger-than-expected Japan 4Q GDP which was released in latter part of last week; near-term direction likely depends on outcome of BOJ meeting this week.

 




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