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Forex Forum Archive for 02/20/2007

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Edmonton Rob 23:58 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:51 GMT February 20, 2007

you dont seem to confident that the asian session is going to beat the cable into the 1.9510 range

Cannes Oil man 23:57 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
$/CAD looks ready for 1.1600 (There was a 1.1700 expiracy today , thus the move to 1.17, see GVI post in the afternoon today) , however tom we have a 1.1630 and a larger 1.1600 expiracy..Market should ondulate towards them...And if 1.1600 breaks could see 1.1520.
Above 1.1730 negates.

Cannes Oil man 23:51 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Definitely , though i might be forced to rebuy 1.9530/40 (went out at 50 earlier) ..if it doesn't dip , already have the limit in , will buy above 40/50 if not hit during asian trade (1.9510).

Edmonton Rob 23:48 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:31 GMT February 20, 2007

Yeah it seems like 1.9500 is a range people seem to like to rebuy GBP/USB

UK Alex 23:42 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
I'm releaved to hear you say that. First target 1.3295?

Cannes Oil man 23:40 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
$/CAD 1.170/30 offers great potential for 1.1600 target tomorrow .(Above 30 might as well skip it , as it will probably make another trial to 1.1830...Probably due to a push from GBP/CAD and EUR/CAD.).

GVI:
Cannes Oil man 23:03 GMT February 20, 2007
Shorted 1.1705 30pips stops, TP 1.1600.


Cannes Oil man 23:37 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
alex:
Eur$ looks great, as posted at 1.29 , target is still 1.34.

1.3050 should be supportive , and a good bounce level if it ever gets there.

BOD mode.

UK Alex 23:34 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Oil man: What's your view on Euro/USD for the rest of this week?

Cannes Oil man 23:31 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 23:09 GMT February 20, 2007

I'm currently flat on gbp$, as i took 100 pips off the table.
Will however relong 1.9500/10 area..
gl

UK Alex 23:30 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
1.9400 is a very good area to buy cable, if it gets there.

Edmonton Rob 23:22 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:13 GMT February 20, 2007

Perhaps thats the best idea

USA BAY 23:13 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
EDMONTON ROB,

Wait till boe to make your trade imvho. gt/gl

Edmonton Rob 23:09 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:06 GMT February 20, 2007

Im so tempted to go long on the GBP/USD right now but im getting some mixed signals about where people thinks its going over the next day or two

Cannes Oil man 23:06 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
It's a benefit for the GBP..Less risk of terrorism, Less soldiers dead, Less billions thrown into giving flat screen LCD's to irakis.

Edmonton Rob 23:03 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
So hows the troop withdraw going to affect the GBP/USD you guys think?

Baltimore Zoltan 22:57 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
LDN 22:52 GMT February 20, 2007 :

ThanKs!!

Syd 22:54 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Blair To Announce Troop Pullout Schedule From Iraq-BBC -

LDN 22:52 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Baltimore Zoltan 22:47 GMT February 20, 2007
5 gmt BOJ decision...6.30 gmt Governor Fukui policy statement

Baltimore Zoltan 22:47 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
RBA Governor's testimony to start in 10 minutes, if I got my times right.
What time do we expect BoJ rate announcement? Last month it came late evening EST, between 10 pm and midnight if I remember correctly. Any info will be greatly appreciated!

Denver Comic 22:33 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
From CNN..

UK Prime Minister Tony Blair will announce on Wednesday a new timetable for withdrawing British troops from Iraq, with 1,500 to return home in several weeks, the British Broadcasting Corp. reports

USA BAY 22:21 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

You are the master of kiwi, I just posted it for reading. gt/gl

GVI john 22:14 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Wed, Feb 21, 2007
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Labor Price Index
JA- BOJ Policy Decision
09:30 UK- Feb BOE Minutes
11:00 UK- Feb CBI Ind Trends
10:00 EU- Dec BOP
13:30 US- Jan CPI (see +0.1%, +0.2% ex-F&E vs. +0.5%, +0.2%)
13:30 CA- Dec Retail Trade
15:00 US- Jan LEI (see +0.2% vs. +0.3%)
19:00 US- FOMC Minutes

Thu, Feb 22, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan Customs Trade
00:30 AU- Nov AWOTE
07:00 GE- 4Q06 final GDP
08:15 CH- 4Q06 Employment
10:00 EU- Dec Industrial Orders
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 325,000 vs. 357,000)
15:30 US- Weekly Energy
15:30 US- Natural Gas

Fri, Feb 23, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan CSPI
23:50 JA- Dec All Sector Activity Index
09:30 UK- 4Q06 GDP (2nd release)
09:30 GE- Feb IFO

GVI john 22:10 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

        EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3144	119.96	1.2359	1.9552	1.1699	0.7862	157.70
High	1.3190	120.35	1.2394	1.9577	1.1716	0.7874	158.10
Low	1.3130	119.55	1.2311	1.9480	1.1635	0.7851	157.30
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/20/2007					
5 day 	1.3138	119.75	1.2356	1.9537	1.1649	0.7859	157.34
10 day	1.3073	120.52	1.2415	1.9538	1.1716	0.7816	157.56
20 day 	1.3018	120.76	1.2448	1.9589	1.1762	0.7782	157.21
50 day 	1.3041	120.01	1.2373	1.9583	1.1709	0.7823	156.49
100 day	1.2951	118.80	1.2376	1.9340	1.1536	0.7759	153.85
200 day	1.2842	117.19	1.2359	1.9011	1.1362	0.7644	150.51

LKWD JJ 22:01 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
i wonder what gooner has to say about cable.

Gen dk 21:58 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

LDN 21:58 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 21:55 GMT February 20, 2007
lol..the comedy has started again...

Cannes Oil man 21:55 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
NZD should start dipping once it has hiked, so probably around 7230.

Gen dk 21:54 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Charlotte TH 21:53 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
0.6910 is the target for nzdusd shorts posted earlier.likely down there by friday.gtgl.

Cannes Oil man 21:50 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:38 GMT February 20, 2007


She was saying short for 6000 at 6700 too.

LKWD JJ 21:45 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
thanks usa bay! dont expect too much there as mr king has said that gbp should go down to alleviate account deficit.

Gen dk 21:44 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 21:38 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD - Nearing a Short Term Top?

Tuesday, 20 February 2007 14:07:45 GMT
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist

Is NZD/USD ready to reverse? Let’s see how our Trend Reversal Thermometer list stacks up:


Slim chance of Short Term Top in NZD/USD
The NZD/USD has staged an impressive rally over the past week and today’s candle suggests the possibility of a turn. However our picking tops and bottoms thermometer indicates that there is only a slim chance for a reversal. The only technical supports that we have for a reversal are the JPercentile indicator on the daily chart and Elliott Wave formation. Only a weekly basis, the JPercentile indicator still points to potential gains. This is supported by the fact that the currency pair gapped open on Sunday night. There is no significant support and resistance level until 0.7100, which is essentially 100 pips away from here. Risk reversals are right in the middle of the band and NZD/USD volatility which is at 9.40 percent is not conducive for a top. Therefore even though it may be tempting to look for weakness in the NZD/USD here, our thermometer suggests that you wait for a test and failure of the 0.7100 level first.



USA 21:31 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Sorry guys, that was for jj recap

london av 21:29 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
jj, it was 5-4 i think

RIC fxq 21:29 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:21 GMT

had me confused for a minute as the BoE minutes are scheduled for Weds at 930 GMT

USA BAY 21:27 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Thats an old article from 2007 jan

USA BAY 21:21 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (AFX) - UK government bonds were higher after the minutes to the Bank of England's last rate decision showed a close 5-to-4 vote, although gains were limited by strong fourth quarter GDP figures.

Markets were expecting a 7-to-2 vote. Taken together with a speech by governor Mervyn King last night, the minutes also suggest the January hike was made pre-emptively to keep inflation expectations in check during the ongoing wage agreements.

'The minutes suggest a February hike is more unlikely than expected yesterday, as markets have become over-aggressive in pricing in BoE hikes,' said Audrey Childe-Freeman at CIBC World Markets, who saw the minutes as a good opportunity to cover short positions in gilts.

Bond price gains on the BoE minutes were limited, however, by stronger-than-expected UK GDP figures, which showed the economy expanded by 0.8 pct on quarter and 3.0 pct on the year. Both were a shade above predictions.

'The very strong GDP is above the trend rate (of 0.6 pct) and justifies the January hike and suggests it may be too early to exclude the possibility of a February hike,' said Childe-Freeman.

LKWD JJ 21:18 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
in jan boe raised rates . does anyone recall the vote?

Charlotte TH 21:10 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
short nzdusd at 0.7014.added to earlier shorts at 0.6937 and 0.6975.

Charlotte TH 20:59 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 21:10 GMT February 13, 2007
added to usdcad longs at 1.1730 here at 1.1660.targets 1.1840/80-1.1920.

---------------------

closed long from 1.1660 at 1.1707.

keeping 1.1730 long for higher ground.might long again if 1.1660 area seen.

Washington MRM 20:56 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
london av 20:37 GMT

i think it's a wait and see. if boj hikes, which i think they need to in order to preserve their credibility and independence, i will probably join the selling of usd/jpy. if they do not hike, i will likely refrain from going long usd/jpy.

i think gbp/jpy will be very volatile tonight as it has been recently. you couldn't pay me to enter a trade there.

london av 20:37 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
how is everyone planning to play the BOJ decision? personally i think there will be no rise. anyone suggest a level to long GBP/JPY. this will go to 238 and depending on BOE minutes could go 241. and $yen any levels to long at?

USA BAY 20:36 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
THANKS ATHENS MK

LKWD JJ 20:27 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
interesting levels with $y @ 120 and cable 1.9550. and cb decision looming over one and minutes over the other.

Charlotte TH 20:25 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
yes van JV,you are right all sorts of views on gbpusd's direction medium and long term.agree with MK's view though which is bearish.think it would be a might difficult job for gbpusd to rise even to 1.9600.may,just maybe a soike to 1.9610 would be all it might just about manage pre or post BOE mpc tomm.

Van jv 20:20 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
""The most interesting exchange rate in the coming three months will perhaps be GBP/USD, because of the widely diverse expectations on the UK's inflation trajectory, and the unpredictable nature of the BoE's actions.""
--by MS

Van jv 20:18 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
May be; but as said here earlier, 0.25% does not mean much for Carry trades

Washington MRM 20:10 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 19:58 GMT

That may be, but Bloomberg's estimate currently has 25 out of 52 economists predicting a move up. I think that 62% odds seems overly optimist on credit suisse's part.

Van jv 20:02 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Japan//from Morgan Stanley
..."Likelihood of decline in prices

The absence of notable growth in wages suggests that labor productivity growth remains strong. This productivity growth and the supporting high levels of capex could heavily restrain price increases. Also, since the economy’s supply capacity is growing about 2% per year, about in line with actual conditions, and spending lacks momentum, the improvement in the output gap tends to be sluggish and prices tend to be low and stable over an extended period.

From a bottom-up perspective, the decline in broadly defined utility charges from lower mobile phone rates and deregulation, frequently mentioned at one time, is not a temporary one. In a trend that has sustainability, productivity has been improving in the quasi-public sector thanks to private- and public-sector reform efforts in the past few years.

Without noteworthy improvement in the so-called ‘core of core’ CPI, the YoY change in the core CPI could be 0% in the Jan-Mar quarter this year and turn slightly negative in the Apr-Jun quarter because of the decline in oil prices. We think the figure could be negative starting with the March reading (scheduled to come out in late April) and be negative for the rest of 2007 or F3/08.

While we expect prices to decline, we do not anticipate a reversion to deflation. Whereas the BoJ overestimates the impact of the productivity deterioration (the rise in unit labor costs) on prices, i.e., it underestimates the underlying strength of the quiet productivity revolution going on in the economy, we see room for further improvement in productivity.
"

Cannes Oil man 19:58 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
New York Bank Prop Trader 19:30 GMT February 20, 2007

Look GV-I credit suisse's report , 64% see boj hike on wednesday.
not 50/50 atm.

Athens MK 19:47 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:30 GMT February 20, 2007

You got it...... Some people will be long on cable as it goes up and they will take profit... For those that are long 1.9610-30 and 1.9720 are area they will take profit. Since cable is at a level that in an uptrend it would make sense to go long at this level but our charts are showing some weakness in cable that makes it easier from our viewpoint to short it from a higher level for more pips in the long run.... Hope that helps.

lugano fc 19:41 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 11:48 GMT February 20, 2007
big cake to long the jpy now



ofcourse here some profit must be taken....then lets see tom

USA BAY 19:30 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
ATHENS MK,

So what you are trying to imply is basically you are bearish on cable until 1.9809 is breached, so each time it reaches the levels you have pointed out ut is a sell. Pls correct me if I am wrong. TIA

New York Bank Prop Trader 19:30 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
We wonder and we wonder, what will happen with YEN
The BOJ's game will begin sometime after ten

Will they hike or won't they hike, does it really matter
The USD will dip then rally, if you listen to all the chatter

But I bet something different will unfold before our eyes
So listen quite closely, to what I have to say to my guys

The market is fifty-fifty, on whether they will hike
But no matter what they do, volatilty will surely spike

For half of the market is sure to be found wrong
But its the USD/JPY bulls that will be wrong with the long

The dips will be bought, that much we know
But how much can it rally after the BOJ glow

I don't presume to know what the BOJ will do
But the risk is that they move, and USD/JPY drops a
figure... or two

Athens MK 19:24 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 19:18 GMT February 20, 2007

No please no :)

This is a swing strategy that looks to sell at each level IF price action goes to each of those levels. If 1.9809 is touch 99% of the time you will see at least 100 pips and better then 60% for 300-500 pips move. That line 1.9808 is a level that shows strength in a currency move on the bullish side.

What we are looking for is cable to head down again towards 1.93+ level before starting a new swing or at least 1.9469 :)

This is not a signal call but a price action on cable that we are looking at for this week...

Edmonton Rob 19:18 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 19:03 GMT February 20, 2007

You thinking we might actually see a 1.9800 level soon?

NYC Ed 19:05 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK... I like it becasue I am presently Long @ 9546

NYC Ed 19:04 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Yes it does, and I like it... Thanks

Athens MK 19:03 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 19:00 GMT February 20, 2007

Shorting cable as it goes up.... Only above 1.9809 do we look at reversing for at least 100 pips..... Hope that helps.....

Weekly charts are still momentum-wise in a bearish mode.....

NYC Ed 19:00 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK... If I gather correctly, are you leaning toward Cable long this week?? or am I not understanding your level breakout ?
Thanks

Athens MK 18:56 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Here is a level breakdown on cable. The numbers I gave below are valid but these numbers are generated from a second strategy that is being used.

Sell:
1. 1.9539
2. 1.9599
3. 1.9639
4. 1.9729

Profit:
1. 1.9469
2. 1.9339
2. 1.9259

Stop/Reverse:
1.9809

This is a weekly swing trade.... GLGT

Washington MRM 18:37 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 17:40 GMT

Sorry - having problems logging on. I think it depends how much pain you can handle. I think that it is likely to see sub-to lower 1.95 again before GBP/US$ moves up. I will wait until announcement tonight. Also, if BOJ raises rates, may have some interesting cross price action. I think that benefits to being on sideline now outweigh the risk to losing 20-30 pip move.

Gen dk 18:18 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 18:00 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (AFX) - Gold fell to 655.50 usd, its lowest since Feb 8, as speculation Iran might resume negotiations over its nuclear programme sparked profit taking among short term investors.

At 4.54 pm, spot gold was quoted at 657.65 usd an ounce, down more than 13 usd from the 670.95 usd level seen in late New York trades yesterday.

'Bullion prices headed for a U-turn on Tuesday morning (in the US) on news that Tehran might follow Pyongyang to the nuclear negotiation table,' said Kitco analyst Jon Nadler.

One day ahead of a UN Security Council deadline, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said it was no problem for Iran to halt enrichment, but that 'fair talks' demanded a similar gesture from the West.

The news weighed on oil, especially as it came alongside expectations the cold temperatures in the US are set to moderate, thereby reducing demand for heating fuels.

madrid mm 17:57 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
gold traders must be having a good....or bad time 8-)

Inflation, which inflation ? For example, anyone reading the Feb. 7 New York Times article on the ravages of Zimbabwe's hyperinflation (1,594 percent in January, and that's month-over-month) would be confused about what causes inflation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=ay1z8.g4u9d8&refer=home

Sofia mik 17:43 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
manchester 17:34 GMT February 20, 2007
any ideas why gold has plummeted today?

jpy will go more stronger next days
glgt

NYC jr 17:41 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Re: gold - someone knows what the BoJ is going to do?

Edmonton Rob 17:40 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 17:30 GMT February 20, 2007

Think its safe to get into a long position here and wait it out?

RIC fxq 17:40 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
manchester 17:34 GMT

talk of combo weaker oil prices/Iran situation

mal semiji 17:38 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
thanks so much cannes

manchester 17:34 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
any ideas why gold has plummeted today?

Washington MRM 17:30 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 17:09 GMT

I think that it depends on minutes tonight - if it is a 7-2 vote, I think we will see 1.97 tomorrow, perhaps after a disappointing CPI number in US.

GBP/US$ is long overdue for a move upward and I wouldn't be surprised to see it move the 150+ points in a day. If minutes look more dovish, I think it might have to wait until end of week or beginning of next week.

gl/gt

RIC fxq 17:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
CAD rng 11700/11637 since 1500 ET/2000 GMT

Cannes Oil man 17:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
The forex positionning is currently mildly SHORT GBP (forex spot), though it is increasing , thus we should see good upside from here(as prices move up , short gbp positionning increases).

I am taking of my 100 pips profit here in GBP$ and will relong 1.9510.
gl gt


Edmonton Rob 17:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 17:24 GMT February 20, 2007

So you think its going down before its going to go up?

GENEVA DS 17:24 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob

Hi Rob... you did not ask the question to me , but I really think, too many people want the quick money here in cable... also in this forum... you can look back, all the time the same people around , when cable goes up 100 pips... I would say 1.8700 before 1.9700 time frame 3 weeks.... before 1.8700.... only my personal opinion...

Cannes Oil man 17:23 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
semji From GVI:
Cannes Oil man 17:19 GMT February 20, 2007
1.1700 touched , tom is 1.1600 expiracy about same size.

$/CAD..

Cannes Oil man 16:01 GMT February 20, 2007
1 large expiracy at 1.1700 , next day at 1.1600.
---------
gl

mal semiji 17:16 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
hello all, anyone know gihg range for usd cad ,, tq

Edmonton Rob 17:09 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 16:15 GMT February 20, 2007

How quickly do you think we'd see 1.9700? A day or two? Thats without a doubt some very nice upside if it happens

UK Alex 16:29 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Bies see a high potential for a U.S. housing inventory correction.

Washington MRM 16:15 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:09 GMT

I agree that GBP/US$ will move to the upside. I think that the catalyst could be the BOE minutes tonight for a move up to 1.9710 in a quick manner.

As for my short, just looking for some intra-day action as I think it has topped for the session.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:14 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
thanx jr!!
I knew someone had posted this - now I remember it was on the help forum... sorry for the spam..

NYC jr 16:13 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Right hand side - buyer

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:11 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
There are rumours a large RHS fix in [STERLING] is set to go through at 16.00GMT. Models have been bidders of the Pound generally, while a Swiss bank and hedge funds were heavy sellers of Eur/Gbp earlier. Approaching big figure levels (1.95 in Cable and 0.7 in Eur/Gbp) are likely to feature Pound offer interest, which may dominate once the fix related buying is out of the way.IGM

hi guys - apparently it was smtg - can someone enlighten on what RHS stand for??

Cannes Oil man 16:09 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
The GBP$ has lots of room to explode to the upside.

It is however a necessity that people short it when it rises, after all , Forex is an exchange market with of course more looser than winners (there wouldn't be a market otherwise).

For those who went long, the consolidation phase , will take one more day , then it will burst upside..in one single session , just like the NZD$ did..1.9470 should hold , from here to keep the bullish status.
Good long 1.9500//1.9520 area good place to establish longs from here.

GL.

Dallas GEP 16:04 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
closed usd/cad longs at 1.1670, closed eur/gbp shorts at 6722

Washington MRM 15:52 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
I'll look at price action, but probably above 50 day average at 1.9590.

I am actuall getting more nervous about the trade now.

Gen dk 15:47 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manchester 15:44 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
MRM, what stop loss do you have in place with that trade?

Athens MK 15:43 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$:

Sell price action at:
1) 1.9550 - first sell
2) 1.9610 - second sell
3) 1.9720 - third sell

Profit:

1) 1.9469 - first profit
2) 1.9340 - second profit

Reversal level:

1.9810 area - look for a stop and reverse for at least 100 pips on existing open positions...

Remember these are just guidelines what the market price action we think could be doing this week... It can changed and remember these are not calls of a signal...

Washington MRM 15:40 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Actually going short GBP/US$ for some pips. Think might consolidate around 1.9530.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:39 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : the market is expected to trade between 119.81 - 120.70.

Washington MRM 15:37 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 08:44 GMT February 20, 2007
Long GBP/US$ for another move up to the highs of 1.9550. My view is still that GBP will strengthen from here before the BOE minutes are released as the market becomes more anxious. Will look to cut position around 1.9470.

-------------------

Out of trade.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:36 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The next barrier after 234.97 is 235.83.

UK Alex 15:32 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
U.S. investment bank buying cable.

RIC fxq 15:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
4cast:

* 20 Feb 07: 15:05(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/GBP, GBP/USD Flows - Underlying buyer?

Somewhat volatile at this time, this is not the first time during the last few sessions that we have seen a sharp reversal of sterling sales. There are reports of the initial impetus for this move coming from a number of directions - with a large German name supplying the cross, a UK clearer taking the cable, and stoploss sales and model trade buying all the way through. Though we haven't put a finger on the real background here, this type of price action has all the makings of an ongoing buy order - whether it be sovereign name - or M&A related. If cable can push through 1.9550, and then more stops at 1.9560, then the model brigade could take it all the way through the next big figure! C.F.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:23 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : the market momentum is strong when it is trading above the range 155.21 - 156.55 - 156.69.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:22 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : the market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 156.69 (155.21 - 156.55 - 156.69).

Hong Kong Qindex 15:19 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : the market momentum is strong when it is tarding above the range 1.6212 - 1.6213 - 1.6252.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:17 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the market momentum is strong when it is trading above the range 0.6698 - 0.6713 - 0.6717.

madrid mm 15:13 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk

8-)

Nothing like listening to ¨H-e-l-l-s bells ¨to motivate me and make you ready to trade US NFP news the 1st friday of every month @ 2.30 pm Madrid´s time . LOL

Hong Kong Qindex 15:12 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market momentum is strong when it is trading above the range 118.57 - 119.15 - 119.41.

lugano fc 15:12 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
sorry .... i would not go short the jpy

long jpy is the better r/r

lugano fc 15:11 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
until last weeks high are taken out i would not go long the jpy...and we still are far away....the short side is the better r/r...also if there is no hike imo (in this case just a spike high followed by a big reversal to new lows

Hong Kong Qindex 15:10 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the range 1.3149 - 1.3235 - 1.3288.

manchester 15:09 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
good to see you back jaap

Hong Kong Qindex 15:08 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The market momentum is strong if it can trade above the range 1.2305 - 1.2347 - 1.2381.

The Netherlands Purk 15:02 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:24 GMT February 20, 2007
fwiw and does not make me any younger....
It was 27 years ago (on February 19th, 1980) that AC/DC vocalist Bon Scott was found lifeless in London after a long night of drinking. 8-)

Correct, he choked in his own vomit. If there was somebody to lay him to his other side he was still with us, and making the good noise together with Angus Y.
Wanna lend my recordcollection?

Hong Kong Qindex 15:02 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : the market is going to consolidate in the range of 0.7815 - 0.7867 - 0.7872.

madrid mm 15:00 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 14:38 GMT February 20, 2007
Spotforex NY 14:32 GMT February 20, 2007

8-)

Probably altogether with the US CPI data, markets will move a bit more crazyly after BoJ's interest rate decision.

Cannes Oil man 14:59 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Afternoon,

Just came back for a few mnts, GBP$ back at 1.9540 , meanwhile GBPJPY approaching 240 target.

Tom will be a big move for the jpy as i believe there won't be a hike.
Back in a few hours

gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 14:58 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market has a potential to trade in the range of 1.1684 - 1.1732.

ABHA FXS 14:58 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
ABHAGOLDINGTrendSigSell AUDUSD at 0.7862 S/L 0.7876 T 145 pips M240

Mla Evan 14:58 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, how abt Usd/Cad and Aud, TIA.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:55 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : the current expected trading range is 1.9441 - 1.9519 - 1.9563.

Gen dk 14:43 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia mik 14:38 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 14:30 GMT February 20, 2007
What time is Fukui and BOJ's announcement tonight... est

may be 05.00-05.30 GMT

NYC Ed 14:38 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY... I really did NOT want to think how old I was... but ...your right

Spotforex NY 14:32 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 14:28

It was 40 years ago.....or two score in Lincoln speak

Washington MRM 14:30 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
What time is Fukui and BOJ's announcement tonight... est? Midnight?

NYC Ed 14:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
It was 30 years ago today, Sgt Pepper taught his band to play...

madrid mm 14:24 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
fwiw and does not make me any younger....
It was 27 years ago (on February 19th, 1980) that AC/DC vocalist Bon Scott was found lifeless in London after a long night of drinking. 8-)

Ldn Once Upon a time 13:51 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Watch later on risks for markets setting as per the BOJ hawkish enviroment to come. Big bonds flows to follow.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:49 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
oilman - sorry - do you see reversal on GBPNZD on 4H chart - I have this idea back when the price was 2.7777 and it seems I missed that opportunity but since it has made a big fall it might be able to move up big?

Cali mmm 13:46 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Keep the good work Oilman.

madrid mm 13:46 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
fwiw and old news
TEHRAN (AFX) - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rejected a looming UN deadline for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, saying it would not halt the sensitive nuclear activity as a precondition to talks.

'We are in favour of dialogue. But in order for us to talk they are imposing a condition that would deprive us of our right,' Ahmadinejad said in a public rally in Rasht, the capital of the northern Gilan province.


His comments come ahead of the expiry this week of the latest UN Security Council deadline for Iran to halt sensitive uranium enrichment work as well as a UN watchdog report Friday on its compliance with this demand.

'We say to them (the West): how can your enrichment factories continue to work when you are asking for a suspension of our activities?' he said in the speech broadcast on state television.

Ahmadinejad said the only scenario where Iran could halt enrichment was if other nuclear powers suspended the process themselves.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:45 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
mm & Oil man - - I also would like to support those who contribute ideas and trades to the Free side of the forum...

madrid mm 13:36 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 12:33 GMT February 20, 2007

Oily no need to justify yourself.....8-)

If people who insulted you and others in this forum could use a tiny little bit of their brain , they could just click on ¨archive¨link and see for themselves that they are ·$··$%&&%()((/=/(=

Critics are easy, trading is another ball game

lugano fc 13:30 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
shorts usd working fine....
dont bother about others oil.

jpy .... dont do one way bet.....i will not be surprised that before ny close we have usdjpy diveing bringing jpy crosses with him....

UK Alex 13:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
ECB'S MERSCH - EDGING TOWARD STATE WHERE NO LONGER NEED ACCOMMODATIVE MONETARY POLICY

UK Alex 13:25 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
atm = at the moment

NYC Ed 13:19 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
K Alex....atm ???? what is that

UK Alex 13:16 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
M&A talk supporting cable atm.

Macau sophia 13:12 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
OIL MAN - you have done an excellent job. keep this up!

NYC Ed 13:02 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Portugal Camisa you like cable LONG.. I am long @ 9415, I see a 9600 area berfore the week is out, chart 30 and daily show me that

Cannes Oil man 12:47 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
I've let the heckle and jeckle have their fun (my treat),my positions will be bringing back good pips above 1.97 (~~GBPJPY 240) and that serves me better than senseless arguments...

However people and the forum in general being so fast to disregards AND to aggressively point my views as "wrong" with obviously long US$ positions , gives me more incentive and renewed confidence in shorting the US$.
Consensus trading as proven to never work.

Stops still at entries (on both NZD and GBP), off for the day.

gl gt

Cannes Oil man 12:33 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
from GVI:


Cannes Oil man 14:25 GMT February 16, 2007
Over the coming week, the biggest risk event in currency markets is a stronger yen. The Japanese Q4 GDP report
illustrated a strong 1.2% (QoQ, s.a.) rise in Q4. More importantly, it showed a solid 1.1% (QoQ, s.a.) gain in private
consumption (contributing 0.6% points to growth). Upward revisions to historical data now show that private consumption
contracted in only one (not two) of the last three quarters. The 1.1% contraction in Q3 has also now been fully reversed.
While USD/JPY may weaken over the course of next week, by 1 March it is likely to be comfortably back above 120.00
and ready to test higher levels. This is because JPY strength is unlikely to last long. Even with a 25 basis point interest
rate rise by the Bank of Japan to 0.50%, carry trade participants are not likely to be overly discouraged for too long.
Interest rate differentials are not favouring the JPY. More importantly, the fundamental factors driving yen weakness
remain in place. Most notably; (1) an adjustment by the currency to weak Japan-US and Japan-Europe terms of trade
differentials; (2) further offshore investment by the Japanese while the global economy remains strong. The USD held up
relatively well in the face of weak economic data on Thursday 15 February (low TIC data, weaker industrial production
and higher jobless claims data among others). A stable 5.25% Fed funds rate is an attractive deposit base for the world's
reserve currency.
-Commonwealth Bank.

GVI john 12:29 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
av- because the markets are realizing that a +25bp hike in short-term rates in Japan would have no impact on its use as a funding currency for carry trades.

Portugal Camisa 12:17 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
cable nice support at 9480

London Copoch 12:16 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY needs a pull back before it can reach 234.90

london av 12:03 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
why all this yen shorting then?

GVI john 12:00 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
From GVI earlier...

GVI john 10:19 GMT February 20, 2007
Credit Suisse's research showed that market participants currently see a 64% chance of the BOJ tightening credit on Wednesday, higher than 61% noted the previous day. But during the Tokyo session, hedge funds and other overseas players sold the yen, mostly for currencies bearing higher interest, such as the euro, sterling and the Australian dollar, traders said. --DJ

london av 11:51 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
it seems like the concencus is the BOJ wont raise rates

lugano fc 11:48 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
big cake to long the jpy now

lugano fc 11:46 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
jap sharks eating stops b4 tommorrow

Gen dk 11:46 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 11:42 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : If the market can overcome the projected resistant barrier at 120.11 // 120.28, the next targeting barrier is 120.58 // 120.81.

Atlanta South 11:34 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
Ref 06:23/ Thanks for those levels GV levels a bit off. GT

lugano fc 11:33 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
still usd bulls? not understood yet the market is already short usd?

sold usd against jpy-gbp-eur-chf stops 120.80-1.9350-1.3040-1.2480.....see u in a couple of days...or b4...

Atlanta South 11:32 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
LDN
Ref 10:05//Are you not receiving benefits from those timely
post??? I'm sure there are some in each one. GT

Hong Kong Qindex 11:27 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The upside targeting points are 234.40 and 234.93.

Syd 11:21 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
ILLINOIS Mike Pinion 11:09 :-))) I will help you

ILLINOIS Mike Pinion 11:09 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
LDN 10:05 GMT February 20, 2007 Got nothin' better to do/say? I can offer you a little barium enaema to clear the head, my treat.

The Netherlands Purk 11:08 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
LDN 10:05 GMT February 20, 2007

Think we will will see more action from Oily Boily when the price hits his stop to entrything that he told us yesterday: 19450.

Auckland trotter 11:00 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Small range starting on the 5 min 12 hour chart, which for me shows uncertainty in the market. With various contradictions on various time scale charts - I am happy with my percentage profit using leverage.

Possible more down: ref my previous posts.

Will assess the market tomorrow.

Auckland trotter 11:00 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Small range starting on the 5 min 12 hour chart, which for me shows uncertainty in the market. With various contradictions on various time scale charts - I am happy with my percentage profit using leverage.

Possible more down: ref my previous posts.

Will assess the market tomorrow.

Syd 10:53 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Iran Ready To Begin Negotiations -Iran Ready To Halt Its Uranium Enrichment Program - President

RIC fxq 10:29 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
LDN 10:05 GMT

it is either a case of misery trying to attract more company or "if I say/think it often enough it will come true"

Charlotte TH 10:13 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 23:07 GMT February 18, 2007
long usdjpy 119.33 with stops at 118.90.

------------
closed half at 119.96.stops for rest at entry.

Auckland trotter 10:06 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:28 GMT February 20, 2007
And, I keep in mind at the moment the level around 13153 as a possible resistance level for now from various indicators.

I am just taking pips. The EUR/USD I see is uncertain at the moment, with conflicting indicators on the various time charts.

The 4 hr 20 day chart still looks in need of correction, with a general drop in the trend. Although the 1 week 3 year and other indicators still show some up movement. But I see this a beginning to weaken.

I guess it depends on what time scale you trade on.

LDN 10:05 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
No sound from oil slick....another 20 pips up on gbp and we will get oilys attention deficit disorder...very entertaining...

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:53 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
madrid MM // tnx mate!

Gen dk 09:52 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Washington MRM 09:37 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
UK mortgage lending and M4 growth above forecasts. Should help facilitate upward move toward 1.9540.

Auckland trotter 09:32 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:28 GMT February 20, 2007
Sorry, trying to do too many things at once - should read -

which also corresponds to a figure around the SMA (100) on the 1hour 5day chart.

Auckland trotter 09:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:06 GMT February 20, 2007
I have support for the EUR/USD around S1 daily pivot of 1.3130 which also corresponds to a figure around the SMA (100).

Buying now.

Plovdiv Gotin 09:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
E/$: if 1.3190 not hold-->1.3197..1.3211/15/51..1.3290/3300. If hold -->1.3090/40/1.2975 . Imp.res. to downside r 1.3157/71/79. GT.

madrid mm 09:20 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA JFO 09:19 GMT February 20, 2007

i have euro-usd
S @ 13128, 13106, 13089
PP @ 13145

madrid mm 09:19 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
sofia , sorry, i meant www.investopedia.com

GENEVA JFO 09:19 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Madrid MM
I have 1.3140 as 1st supp then 1.3090 n 1.3050

I see consolid under 1.3160 level.

Good trading day to you

madrid mm 09:17 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Sofia, yes i have seen this strategy on www.wikipedia.com... I am not using it really.

I use hedging strategy at the moment....

madrid mm 09:16 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:10 GMT February 20, 2007

Thx, yes i am using Bollinger and R , S and PP top trade only so i can not say regarding others tools, but hope it works for you

keep the faith

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:10 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:06 GMT //

hi - I was just looking for some strategy with Bollinger bands - smtg like buy on lower band/sell on higher band - - or buy on upbreak of the middle line/sell on downbreak..

have you seen trading strategy like this somewhere?
I put on a Parabolic SAR also but still trying to figure a strategy though..

madrid mm 09:06 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
i was wondering if anyone has a support on euro-usd @ 1.3125s with bollinger band set @ 20-2

Syd 08:53 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Eastern European USD Buyer Triggers Stops

Washington MRM 08:44 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Long GBP/US$ for another move up to the highs of 1.9550. My view is still that GBP will strengthen from here before the BOE minutes are released as the market becomes more anxious. Will look to cut position around 1.9470.

Auckland trotter 08:11 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Taken profit on the up for the EUR/USD. Will now see what happens at the 50% fib on the 1hr 5day chart with a down trade, with the EUR market just open and the UK to come.

ABHA FXS 07:02 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
SHORT GBPJPY 234.15 STOP 234.80 T 232.60

lugano fc 06:34 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
reopen short eurjpy stop 159.30

USA BAY 06:23 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
ATLANTA SOUTH

1.3122, 1.3162

Atlanta South 06:15 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Would someone provid the high & low for E/$ for
02/19/07. Tks & gt.

Auckland peat 05:57 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
oops that should be emphatic , but maybe both

Auckland peat 05:52 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Jack Crooks is a little more empathic than usual today.

Rye,NY et 04:15 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw....In terms of trendline analysis, the market is moving into a slightly complicated area today. The Bearish Channel that I have posted about since December would break today at 1.3213--last nail in the coffin. There is major Bullish Trendline Resistance at 1.3228--could break, could bounce...(I'm long and favor the upside, but will be ready to take profit if the USD bounces--that would be a pullback in an uptrend, in my view)...just key levels to watch today...All, as usual, imvho....GL/GT

SINGAPORE GFX 04:14 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC

WOW, Good to travel a lot. gt/gl

Sydney ACC 04:12 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 03:44 GMT February 20, 2007
No, he's been to Moscow as well.

Sydney ACC 04:11 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
A BBC story hit the wires, about the same time euro went bid, which highlights a US plan to attack Iran, giving two reasons:
1. The uranium enrichment and
2. The confirmation that bombs used in Iraq to attack US personnel originate from Iran.
It goes on to say Iranian citizens are becoming increasingly nervous about a US attack.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6376639.stm

USA BAY 04:06 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, could you please comment on where gbp/jpy is heading to. thanks

SINGAPORE GFX 03:44 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man and UAE. Like qindex also 2 locations.

Cannes Oil man 03:38 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
ACC:

UAE Oil man 10:40 GMT January 6, 2003
First 1.075x �
Then 1.0450
Then 1.16+
1.12
1.26

the coccoon is ready to mature!

---
Yes been awhile LOL.

Edmonton Rob 03:32 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone think the Euro can maintain this 1.3180 level or are we looking for it to go lower?

Sydney ACC 03:32 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 03:27 GMT February 20, 2007
You were starting to give me a headache beating your drum so much that I went back to the archives to see whether you have been consistent in your views. Sure enough!

Cannes Oil man 03:27 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:53 GMT February 20, 2007

Nothing changed from the post , albeit we have move up since quite a lot (1.25--1.32 now , and GBP$ 1.87 now 1.96 area)..

Good night.

Syd 03:10 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
just before i go

The 3 BOJ board members that voted for an interest-rate rise at January meeting (Mizuno, Noda, Suda) will likely again propose a rate rise at this week's meeting, says Izuru Kato, chief economist at Totan Research; adds it's possible that if one of remaining 6 board members also argues for a rate rise that a "snow slide" will occur with a majority falling in behind rate-hike camp. Still, adds probability of that happening only slightly more than 50%, reflecting too-close-to-call view among market participants, analysts
BASE METALS UPDATE: Banking On China Is Dangerous Copper Game
Copper market bulls are banking on China to replenish its stockpiles by buying from the international market but market participants are failing to provide any real evidence so far that this is about to happen, and particularly not in the form of a government program.

Sky high nickel prices fueling innovation among China's stainless steel producers to use very low-grade nickel ore could push the global nickel market to surplus earlier than anticipated, analysts say.






Syd 03:04 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:06 GMT yes excellent read notice its only just come out thanks , off to the dentist again :-(((

Van jv 02:54 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:37 Courtesy Of JP ://Carry on living dangerously (The Econmist Feb 8th 2007)
Thanks for the timely reminder ,, as well Syd ACC on Dresdnner Barometer warning"
"a full-scale slump in risky assets could come in a matter of months, or even weeks.""
Indeed BOJ decision may, may not yet, start a major move both to 135/ long term TL already broken/ or down to 110.
Considering US interest in capital inflows, USD/JPY is a convenient though misleading demonstration and support for the "Strong $ Policy...

Sydney ACC 02:53 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
From the Archives:
Cannes Oil man 00:31 GMT September 7, 2006
I have a t/p on �$ long 18806 @ 1,8930..
Don't see why it wouldn't range back up there before the big movement.
I don't see the catalyst yet of anything earthshaking as to break the innexorable ascent of currencies against the US$..
if we are to break down lets say to 1.25 �$,what exactly will make large central banks let it drop and fall not buying the wonderful opportunity of getting cheap diversification of much needed �'s?Bearing in mind the low level of euro vs US$ % held.
What exactly makes the � so bad today from yersterday?
Alright major 'exhuberance' back to 1.21..then again back to square 1 , long euro tp break..The big downside break Ive been talked about here is for the moment without a major change in the parameters a nice fayrie tell....
In anycase im still favoring an upside break in the euro(so is system still), and apparently im not the only one as it jumps back to 1.28 everytime...In anycase rejoice ,it will break and swiftly from here ,even daily ranges on �$ are incredibly thin..

Edmonton Rob 02:50 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
That shoulda said "Think we might see it come down? "

Edmonton Rob 02:48 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
This we might see it come down now?

Cannes Oil man 02:45 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:40 GMT February 20, 2007

The Big shuffle i call it..

Sydney ACC 02:40 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 02:33 GMT February 20, 2007
Anyone know whats going on with the EUR/USD?

European names buying euros.

Edmonton Rob 02:33 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Anyone know whats going on with the EUR/USD?

Sydney ACC 02:06 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Reckless spending: will it all go pop?

Levels of greed and hunger for risk in world markets have soared off the scale, according to stark research which warns of an impending slump.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/02/20/cnspend20.xml

Cannes Oil man 01:39 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
fxq:

Don't have any short yen right now, though i am looking to short yen against the GBP and NZD soon as both those are approaching upside break outs :120.20 uy--234.32 GY--84.26 ny --158.20 ey..



RIC fxq 01:32 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
kep talking your book, I'll talk mine. OK?

Cannes Oil man 01:28 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
The BOE did not reveal anything..They just stated what everyone knows..It might be years before anything of the sort happens anyways.

Meanwhile the Yen might very well do a big move to the downside , after BOJ meeting if they don't hike..

RIC fxq 01:19 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
amusing takes from the economic "gurus" lately, the newest twist being the BoE will have to act to bring the "real effective exchange rate" into line (depreciate GBP in plain speak) but the Euro is well supported. Yep, everything is hunky dory in uroland and crap everywhere else. Bullcrap in my opinion!

Cannes Oil man 01:14 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 22:31 GMT February 19, 2007


The current theme is still carry , and expectation of ..Nothing has changed albeit some risks being taken of the table.

EURJPY and GBPJPY are right now good buys..Under key supports they might continue dropping however right now ,they are right near the buy zone.

Gen dk 01:04 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NY Ed 00:13 GMT February 20, 2007 Reply   
Oh Thanks, that's a good one

 




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