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Forex Forum Archive for 02/21/2007

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Syd 23:59 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Japan Jan Imports +10.9% On Year
Japan Jan Exports +18.9% On Year

UK Alex 23:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, when are you predicting the next BOE hike will be? Bear in mind the CBI survey was very strong this month.

USA BAY 23:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Thank you so much SYDNEY ACC AND LONDON GOONER.

Cannes Oil man 23:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Also took out $Y 120.86 from 121.10.

Cannes Oil man 23:28 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:19 GMT February 21, 2007

I will buy 1.9510 again , i took it all about (1.9500, 19510, 19540 or so) @40.

Meanwhile went short ozi 7912 & long $cad 1.1610..(Still have NZD 6925 , as removed 6790).

Sydney ACC 23:28 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:17 GMT February 21, 2007
Sydney ACC 23:08 GMT February 21, 2007

Yes , not saying right here it's going up or down, but if $/Y (or any yen pair for that matter) is going to unwound, and CRASH , it won't be by CB intervention..

KAMPO!

Sydney ACC 23:26 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:14 GMT February 21, 2007
A number of importers will look at AUD/USD zand Aussie against the majors and take some cover, thats normal when we've had this sort of move overnight. AUD/JPY is up 1.2 yen.
Same applies in NZ.
Over the day therefore expect Aussie to drift away, not much possibly below the figure. The appreciation last night was orderly it didn't gap at all and the demand was there all the time. When Aussie fell away inmto the eigthies it was bid back again. Nevertheless last nights moves upwards against USD were confined only to AUD and NZD. I don't think there were any uridashis so the move could be reatraced if the momentum doesn't continue and USD firms against euro and cable.
Commodities were strong last night almost across the board and this will add further support.
AUD/NZD your guess is as good as mine metals is more supportive for AUD but then interest differential favours the Kiwi and its interest rate decision next week, if one was looking to take a position then this would be the less riskier, but remember market is long Kiwi to its eyeballs and if RBNZ doesn't move there'll be a bloodbath.

London Gooner 23:24 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:57 GMT February 21, 2007
LONDON GOONER,
Could you please comment on gbp/jpy. thanks
-
It has most probably return in a buy on dips mode. If no dip is seen the market will buy into strengh above 237 if breaks to try 239 & 240.
.

NY Ed 23:19 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man... Hey are WE still LONG Cable, I am.. with todays "come back" I amfully confident that 1.9600 tonight is a given....YOU ????

Cannes Oil man 23:17 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 23:08 GMT February 21, 2007

Yes , not saying right here it's going up or down, but if $/Y (or any yen pair for that matter) is going to unwound, and CRASH , it won't be by CB intervention..

UK Alex 23:15 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Check out this Nikkei story:
2 More Rate Hikes Likely Before Fukui's Exit In March '08: Poll

USA BAY 23:14 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Your view on aud/usd and aud/jpy and aud/nzd please. thanks

London Gooner 23:13 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:10 GMT February 21, 2007
LONDON GOONER are you still bullish gbpusd, and why?
-
So far still long sub 1.9500 levels and we are still working within a bullish framework to attempt new test of 1.9700/50 area.
Also keeping in mind that major tops are not built with just one spike but take a while, a return above 1.9850 is probable.
As market was calling for $2.0000 only few weeks ago, worth remembering that often it is not the call that is wrong but the timing.
At the moment it makes sense working the second shoulder on the inverted SHS from 1.9847 to the neckline.
From current if a position trade to long needs a stop below 1.9440 is reasonable risk but to short stop needs to be above 1.9750, twice as much.

UK Alex 23:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Tomoko Fujii of Bank of America's Tokyo Branch said rates would be raised in August, November and then February 2008 to 1.25%, citing the possibility of inflationary pressure rising if major companies boost wages to fight a labor shortage.

Why so bullish on the economy all of a sudden?

Sydney ACC 23:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:04 GMT February 21, 2007
Not really BoJ picked up USD a lot lower than here when they supported the USD, nevertheless you are correct in what you say.
Nonetheless the amount of money being ploughed into the carry trades must be of concern to the central bankers. Recall Dresdners "risk baramoter" the other day.

Cannes Oil man 23:07 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
There is also NO line in the sand.

UK Alex 23:07 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:04 GMT February 21, 2007
I respect what you are saying, but doesn't the fact that the market is very short yen make people holding those positions more twitchy?

Sydney ACC 23:05 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:01 GMT February 21, 2007
SINGAPORE GFX 22:56 GMT February 21, 2007

I wouldn't trade on the assumption of central banks intervening, they've got a bigger fish to fry. For two years now they have been trying to get the Chinese to let the market determine the value of their currency, how is it going to look if ECB intervenes.
At best I expect some jawboning especially from the candidates in teh French presidential elections.

Cannes Oil man 23:04 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Intervention are a very momentary price reliever...No CB is going to throw money and loose it for one or 2 day price relief..

Only way yen unwound is not by CB intervention but by a structure change..If ANY cb make an intervention right now let us say bringing the price to 119.00 or even 118, even 117 (and we're talking BILLIONS in intervention now, which is more than unlikely), it will instantly go back up to 120.50...the CB just lost a BUNCH of million's in the wind..

UK Alex 23:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 22:56 GMT February 21, 2007
It will begin with verbal intervention if the rumours are true.

SINGAPORE GFX 22:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
UK ALEX,

So since boj hike did nothing, cb intervention will bring down the yen pairs/ short is favoured? thanks

UK Alex 22:49 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 22:43 GMT February 21, 2007
It means a deal was done in Essen to sit on the price. The BOJ hike - which half the analysts still consider premature - was meant to disuade the carry traders, but if it doesn't CB intervention will follow.

LKWD JJ 22:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
for all those new to the fx mkt, "rate checking" is the fx code for cb intervention. they have more mony than you can dream of if you lived a million years and can put a big hurt on an account if your going the wrong way.

SINGAPORE GFX 22:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
UK ALEX,

Could you elaborate on that and what it means to e/y pair. thanks

UK Alex 22:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Rumours of imminent rate checking on Euro/Yen are emerging. 160.00 is the line in the sand.

Syd 22:17 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Bank of Japan will likely raise interest rates two more times before Governor Toshihiko Fukui's tenure expires in March 2008, six of nine analysts predicted in a Nikkei survey, The Nikkei Financial Daily reported in its Thursday morning edition.

Two projected no hikes while one said three more are coming. Many see the next one coming after the upper house elections in July.

GVI john 22:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Thu, Feb 22, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan Customs Trade
00:30 AU- Nov AWOTE
07:00 GE- 4Q06 final GDP
08:15 CH- 4Q06 Employment
10:00 EU- Dec Industrial Orders
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 325,000 vs. 357,000)
15:30 US- Weekly Energy
15:30 US- Natural Gas

Fri, Feb 23, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan CSPI
23:50 JA- Dec All Sector Activity Index
09:30 UK- 4Q06 GDP (2nd release)
09:30 GE- Feb IFO

Mon, Feb 26, 2007
05:00 JA- BOJ Minutes (Jan 17-18)
GE- Feb CPI (this week)
07:00 GE- Mar Gfk
15:00 EZ- Jan M3

Tue, Feb 27, 2007
07:00 GE- Jan CPI
09:00 EZ- Jan M3 (Money Supply)
11:00 UK- Feb CBI Distributive Trade Survey
13:30 US- Jan Durable Goods
15:00 US- Feb Cons Conf
15:00 US- Jan Existing Home Sales

Cannes Oil man 21:58 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cool GBP:NZD ..Will place a limit to get a call when spot around 2.7580...Strike 2.78 , 2 month , KO 2.88.

London AH 21:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY chart looks bullish in a tech sence but before rocketing to 122.40 a lot of fundamenatal hurdles in terms of statistics from US. seem to good to be true that it will go all the way

LKWD JJ 21:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
looks like mr bean putting some pressure on cable. what a great skit on the telly mr bean. almost choked from laughing so hard.

Charlotte TH 21:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
added small short usdjpy at 120.90 to earlier in 30's.

Edmonton Rob 21:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
What are your thoughts on the USD/CND everyone? Im long here but its just been sitting doing nothing for hours, what do you guys think

GVI john 21:28 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3141	120.87	1.2375	1.9544	1.1605	0.7913	158.87
High	1.3166	121.20	1.2415	1.9590	1.1712	0.7915	159.05
Low	1.3112	119.71	1.2339	1.9489	1.1596	0.7865	157.30
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/21/2007					
5 day 	1.3142	119.77	1.2351	1.9522	1.1639	0.7874	157.42
10 day	1.3086	120.54	1.2411	1.9524	1.1691	0.7830	157.75
20 day 	1.3027	120.76	1.2442	1.9582	1.1753	0.7788	157.32
50 day 	1.3042	120.06	1.2376	1.9584	1.1709	0.7825	156.58
100 day	1.2956	118.82	1.2373	1.9348	1.1540	0.7764	153.94
200 day	1.2844	117.23	1.2361	1.9015	1.1363	0.7645	150.59

NY RP 21:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong seek 20:32 GMT February 21, 2007
Great question. 750 is now next target on this move. I for one thought it would have happened already. GL

Cannes Oil man 20:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 20:50 GMT February 21, 2007

Well i wasn't referring to the YEN , but more to the million chinese , indian , Africans , South Americans going into industrial and tech era.

USA BAY 20:52 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

USD/CAD shows 1.1560 in my system, any comment on that. thanks

Vienna GD 20:50 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:21 GMT February 21, 2007
I see HYPER inflation coming .... YES oil man, no way around it anymore. And the source is and will be yen.

Paulson and Bernake are just idiots ... commenting on the yen.

SINGAPORE GFX 20:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

OK, Makes sense now. so do you think gbp/jpy will drift below 235.50 or do you think it is all the way up from here though gbp/usd still looks vulnerable down side. tia

Vienna GD 20:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
PAR 20:18 GMT February 21, 2007
Gold indicating FED losing control over inflation . Bernanke aint no P Volcker .

-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-

NO, yen = what fundamentals represent = they want economies awash in oceans of cheap money. They are getting high of all that money flushing around the globe.
BOJ is done for 6 months now. So everybody will continue to sell yen and buy hard assets or higher yielding currencies.
They got what they were calling for.
But i think in the end todays run in gold and oil and CRB (close to odl high) is also iran related.

Cali mmm 20:45 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Ok, thank you Oilman.

Cannes Oil man 20:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP:
Yes it's still a good long..Don't think anything has changed APART that GBP is forming a bottom , once bottom is nicely formed and downside tested enough , a sharp upside move will come...That's usually how things work..(Look NZD 6760__6820 behavior last week, but can see any pair too..).

gl gt

Cannes Oil man 20:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I will re enter 235.20 thus gaining 70 pips to 240 , as i thought 236.00 would cap for the day.
Meanwhile i used my margin elsewhere.

Cali mmm 20:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I meant GBP/JPY, sorry.

Cali mmm 20:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, is 3620s still a good long entry for GBP/USD ? TKS.

LKWD JJ 20:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
oil man still short $y?

Hong Kong seek 20:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
NY RP -- Is it likely to see gold 700 by end of Feb? thx.

SINGAPORE GFX 20:27 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

I know you wanted to re-enter at 235.10, but still dont understand why you did not hold.

NY RP 20:26 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:21 GMT February 21, 2007
Hope you are well.
Clearly US growth is sitting on the edge of a cliff.
Housing and refi's were largest casue of growth. Remove that and what do you get........negative savings and escalating monthy payments. Then spinkle less tax revenue receipts going forward and you get mashed patatoes. Would you like butter or sour cream. LOL

Cannes Oil man 20:21 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I see HYPER inflation coming..(use archives to find previous post) , and not deflation or "stagflation".

Cannes Oil man 20:20 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
GFX:use archives to find why.
---
Shorted AUD$ 7912 , 20 P sl's , for a quick run down to 7880.
Contra scalp.

Livingston nh 20:19 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
But you need a supply constaint - what will be in short supply?

PAR 20:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Gold indicating FED losing control over inflation . Bernanke aint no P Volcker .

NY RP 20:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 20:09 GMT February 21, 2007
All over the place. Slower growth is apparent and inflation is hard not miss. When technicals and fundamentals are in alignment look out. When fundamentals are too strong one should throw technicals out the window and crack open a fine bottle of vino and enjoy. Because there is certain to be a show.

LKWD JJ 20:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
spoke to my freind whos in gold jewelry line. he said demand for entire year is 10 days worth of trading on comex. do i see a bubble or what? paper trading game some days you make others i make.

SINGAPORE GFX 20:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

If gbp/jpy is heading towards 240, why did you tp at 235.90.

LKWD JJ 20:10 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
LONDON GOONER are you still bulliash gbpusd, and why?

Livingston nh 20:09 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
stagflation is a rare beast - where do you see the supply constraint?

Cannes Oil man 20:09 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Few days ago at GBPJPY 232 i called target 240, only 300 pips left to go...Might see it before Friday open.
gl gt

NY RP 20:05 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Gold is doing exactly what it should, trade higher. We are still about $65 dollars away from real reistance before we head to 850 then over $1,000. This move is for real. It will not be an easy one sided run, but certainly one that is visible. Final destination is 1500 to 1700 dollars. After all it is like a $40 stock going to $80. Stagflation anyone?? An attack on the Dollar Index support region is next. Sit back and enjoy.

USA BAY 19:57 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
LONDON GOONER,

Could you please comment on gbp/jpy. thanks

London Gooner 19:55 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD.
A bit technical, but hourly chart since 15 Feb has completed a 'double 3' today with 1.3111.
If the pair was to make another attempt in 3 wave to the upside it will be a 'triple 3' which should be followed by a correction - Either staight a-b-c or descending triangle. We need to see how things develop but if correction goes below 1.3090 expect prices to be snapped up.

Some patience will pay nicely soon on the pair.

Charlotte TH 19:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:39 GMT February 21, 2007
my system is telling differently.for me eurjpy is a short term trade and gbpjpy short to medium.i think we have made good gighs on both.

USA BAY 19:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CHARLOTTE,

Short eur/jpy, my system shows next level is 159.64, so why short and I have 237.15 for gbp/jpy. tia

Charlotte TH 19:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
short eurjpy at 158.88.

London Gooner 19:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
PAR
-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Prime_Ministers_of_Italy

Amazing !

London Gooner 19:24 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Fed Minutes Show Inflation Main Concern, Bias Change Rejected

By Craig Torres

Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers discussed dropping their inclination to raise interest rates, and then rejected the idea because inflation remained the ``predominant concern,'' minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting show.

``Members discussed whether the balance-of-risks language in its recent statements still was the best way to represent the views of the committee and decided that a change was not warranted at this time,'' the minutes said. ``All members agreed that the statement should continue to stress that some inflation risks remained and note that additional policy firming was possible.''
****
Went by very quitely.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 19:21 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
London AH 18:55 GMT February 21, 2007
The limit and stop should be up to the individual that trades. I have as a reasonable resistance the 122.10-20 area seems to be the last resistance tested on this pair. I would prefer to cash in 160 pips or more if possible but as I said before keep moving the stops higher when key resistance is tested to protect profit at all times. Hope that helps.

London AH 18:55 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
sounds reasonable but have to make 1 or two brake throughs of 121 first. But where is the limit?

USA BAY 18:52 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
MIAMI OMIL,

OK, let me recap, you are long at 121.00, stop loss 120.70. I am flat now, will enter after fomc. thanks a mil. gt/gl

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 18:27 GMT February 21, 2007
I would also add if this was not clear that a long position on this pair has been taken at around the 121 area with stops around the 120.70 area. I believe I made that clear but just mentioning it again in case it was not clear. GT

hk ab 18:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
seek, I think gold finished testing 20 dma and the baby just kicked up like when it was @615... I Think you remember this move very well.....

PAR 18:45 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Before the Euro it was more fun . Dump italian lira, buy DM and spent holiday in Milano Maritimo .

madrid mm 18:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   

Oil 59.99 +1.14$
Gold 685.30 +24.30$

Bahrain Bahrain1 18:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 18:36 GMT February 21, 2007
i am like you, my platform offers me hit box , i bot usd-cad @ 11617... 8-)


Hi there...yah the cheapest vols I found where for $CAD lol.....ALL THE BEST AND GOOD LUCK.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 18:27 GMT February 21, 2007
It all depends on your system. I would prefer to move stops to entry point if the 121.40-50 area is seen and continue from there moving stops higher as other key resistance is tested. For now this pair is buy on failed dips on my system until the main support (120.30-40) is taken out. Peace and GT

Van jv 18:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Oil up $ 1.5--Gold up $ 24
News?

madrid mm 18:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
following PAR info-
Italian prime minister Romano Prodi has gone to see President Giorgio Napolitano to hand in his resignation, said infrastructure minister Antonio Di Pietro following a cabinet meeting.
The move comes as the government suffered a major defeat in parliament as his government failed to win a vote of support from the Senate for a motion on its foreign policy.
The motion, about troop deployment in Afghanistan and the enlargement of a US military base in northern Italy, needed 160 votes for approval, but only 158 senators voted in favour, while 136 voted against.
Foreign minister Massimo D'Alema had warned before the vote the centre-left government could resign if the vote went against the administration.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:37 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Short term view gbp/usd: After breaking the main support and bouncing off the key support this pair is in a range/consolidation mode for now. Main resistance is still around the 9585-95 area with key resistance 9565-75 just under it. Support is now around the 9510-20 and keeping a tight range on this pair for the time being. As Oil man puts it this pair (not including the usd/jpy pair which is driven mostly by the week jpy for now) is the black sheep in the bunch or is it?? We shall see if the $ strength continues to propagate on to the other majors in the mean time. Peace and GT

madrid mm 18:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:32 GMT February 21, 2007

nothing new in Italy then... lol

madrid mm 18:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 18:29 GMT February 21, 2007

i am like you, my platform offers me hit box , i bot usd-cad @ 11617... 8-)

Patra alex 18:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man,

Your target for USD/CAD please?

PAR 18:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Prodi resigns as Italy s prime minister. Political crisis in Italy . Buy the Euro .

NYC Ed 18:31 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cable... I think we will see a return to 50 today FOLKS

SINGAPORE GFX 18:31 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Thanks a lot CT CRIS

Bahrain Bahrain1 18:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
bought $CAD call strike 1.1610 expiry tom. hope to see 40/50 tom. GL

CT Cris 18:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 18:23 GMT February 21, 2007
CT CRIS,

What do you mean by break up, any target pls. tia

=====
gbp.jpy filled in sideways level 236.35 and 236.05.
continue buy if breaks 236.35 continue sell if breaks 236.05
mostly the break will be to up.

USA BAY 18:27 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
MIAMI OMIL,

So would you favour a long usd/jpy position as a short term trade with target 121.50. thanks

SINGAPORE GFX 18:23 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

What do you mean by break up, any target pls. tia

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:22 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I see that it is the Oil man show now. Good work I hope you do not get tired from all the questions. Short term view usd/jpy: The key resistance (121) was briefly tested but not broken. Key support is 120.54-64 and main support is 120.34-44 for now. The long signal in the 121 has not moved very well but as long as the key support holds there is still a chance for a test of the long term main resistance (121.40-50) area the stops should be kept around the 120.70 and the stops should be moved to entry point if the long term main resistance is tested again. Long position will be eliminated if price action does not go higher soon. The long term main resistance is very important for the bulls to break. It is so important in my system that I don't have a record of when it was broken before it could be possible that it will reject this first time around. A brief test of the main resistance was made earlier this month all the way up to 122.10 in my charts but that was brief and the price action returned under the main resistance very fast IMHO. Peace and GT

CT Cris 18:21 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 18:15 GMT February 21, 2007
CT CRIS,
====
filled in narrow sideways , then will break up.

London AH 18:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Support at 121

SINGAPORE GFX 18:15 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Your view on gbp/jpy please. thanks

Edmonton Rob 18:15 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Anyone else shorting the rally that just pushed cable to 1.9536/41?

CT Cris 18:12 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
usd.jpy is heading twd 121.51

madrid mm 18:12 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
don t forget FOMC Minutes - 2:00ET
Might get ¨intereting¨.....

madrid mm 18:09 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:08 GMT February 21, 2007

is NISSAN OK ? 8-) or is it too EUropean with its alliance with Renault ?

madrid mm 18:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The yen dropped to a record low versus the euro and approached the weakest in four years against the dollar after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates and said further increases would be gradual.

Investors pushed the Japanese currency to near the lowest in a decade against the Australian dollar. Japan's borrowing costs, the lowest among major economies, dampen the allure of yen- denominated assets.

PAR 18:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Do as BOJ and Kampo and always sell JPY against whatever you can sell it. With the profits , buy more ToyotaS .

hong kong seek 18:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Crazy ...!!!! gold is 681 now..

madrid mm 17:58 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Emotions Can Rule the Trade
Emotions can be seen as the trader's worse enemies; they often lead to misjudgment and loss.

rest of article in the help forum 8-)

SINGAPORE GFX 17:49 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone has any idea on gbp/jpy for tom. Any target. Thanks

manchester 17:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
had a great chance to buy on gold's dip earlier. looking to reach 675 and hold above and then to 720-730 area

madrid mm 17:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
just don t you just love gold.... down 16 USD 1 day, up 16$ the next 8-)

London AH 17:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
obviously...but maybe to late to get in there now

hong kong seek 17:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
any break news for gold ?

hong kong seek 17:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
London AH 17:38 GMT February 21, 2007
gold

London AH 17:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
which pair is most interesing today?

Sofia mik 17:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
audusd 7903-h-bid

manchester 17:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
can anyone call a top for AUD/USD?

Charlotte TH 17:25 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
short gbpjpy 236.15.

Bahrain Bahrain1 17:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 17:01 GMT February 21, 2007
Long'd $:CAD 1.1610 SL 1.1584.

Hi Oilman.....what's the target pls? GL

jkt-aye 17:15 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
potential bearish divergence on usjy.
let see how is it develop.
magnetic series on 120.40 - 120.76. gtgl

hk ab 17:12 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
oilman, entered dlr/cad as well. looking for 1.1650.

Edmonton Rob 17:09 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 17:01 GMT February 21, 2007
where do u see the upside for the USD/CND?

Cannes Oil man 17:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Long'd $:CAD 1.1610 SL 1.1584.

manchester 16:52 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
oil man, do you see any technical resistance on NZD/USD before 7100?

Washington MRM 16:49 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Closed my long GBP's at 1.9528... got bored with the market. It's so disinteresting now. We'll see what happens when FOMC minutes are released.

Edmonton Rob 16:49 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY looks like it wants to creep over 121 again. You guys think it will be able too?

to dr unken katt 16:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
still the same scenario ,
short dat cable on da rallys

to dr unken katt 16:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
still the same scenario ,
short dat cable on da rallys

Cannes Oil man 16:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Closing 6790 NZD$ right here at 7059 , just keeping 6925 add.
Will re-add 7010 or so.
gl gt

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:37 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
yes JP - I know - I also watch your trades -->

Mtl JP 16:34 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Kapricorn, see Oil man 11:31 Feb 21

NYC Ed 16:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man...you did get my message before??

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
well Oilman - how you do it?

Edmonton Rob 16:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:14 GMT February 21, 2007

Youre kicking A$$ there my friend keep it up im loving it over here!

Cannes Oil man 16:14 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I'm on fire , big positive serie atm.

Cannes Oil man 16:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:01 GMT February 21, 2007

The same as yesterday, 1.97--->2.01.

hk ab 16:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
oilman, can I ask you what's your target in the mind for all gbp longs? I heard your range but just want to confirm it. the pair ranges a lot these days and time to make a good decisional move.

Edmonton Rob 15:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Its so nice to have opinions and people to bounce ideas off of, its been very helpful in my trading. I wanna say thanks to everyone!

Edmonton Rob 15:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   

Mtl JP 15:40 GMT February 21, 2007

Thanks!

Mtl JP 15:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Rob 15:35... see Oil man 14:55

GENEVA DS 15:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Riaz Lahore 15:39 GMT February 21, 2007


IT IS GOING HIGHER !

Riaz Lahore 15:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone explain me the outlook on eur/jpy in simple english.Thanks

Edmonton Rob 15:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 15:30 GMT February 21, 2007
Limit $/Y hit now short 121.10.

Whats your target on that short?

lugano fc 15:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
sometimes the market just want to see a nbr on the screen...no matter if it makes sense... (see todays dax 7000 b4 going down).....

could be same on eurjpy 160....thats why dont have stop till there...

lugano fc 15:30 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
eurjpy....jokers at work....
my position change .... still short...no stops (at least until 160.xx) they are looking if there is stops over 159 to eat for the money so mine are away...i will look end of week where we are....

btw seems they didnt find the stops over 159...but some new short....

Cannes Oil man 15:30 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Limit $/Y hit now short 121.10.

GBP$ 1.9442----1.9633 max ranges.

GENEVA DS 15:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man

Thanks very much for your quick reply. Indeed , it is pointing downward short term, but looks exhausted and lots of divergences emerge right now. so a big turnaround seems close now.... thanks... I thought my target was about 2.68....

Cannes Oil man 15:24 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS:
Long near 2.44--2.46 looks fine for 2.55//2.65, though preferably with an option than spot..
I might do it too, if those levels approach, for upside current needs to close ABOVE 2.4830 (pivotal zone).
Right now it's pointing to more downside..
gl

Edmonton Rob 15:19 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman where would u hold the cable at this point?

tor Pumpkin 15:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
1.1604

RIC fxq 15:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
mal semiji 15:14

here @ 11606

mal semiji 15:14 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
thanks ,but where do u know ,, low for usdcad ?

CT PT 15:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Anyone has opinion on usd/cad?

RIC fxq 15:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
mal semiji 15:06

11714 @ 0745 gmt

mal semiji 15:06 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
anyone know high for usdcad today ,,,,tq

GENEVA DS 15:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man

Hi ... it is with big pleasure , that I always read your posts and congratulations on your courage to tell us about your ideas and trades... most would never do that for reasons we all know... One question Oil man: I am looking for personal use to go long GBP agst AUD.... for a medium term play... where would you see this cross moving too? Lets say for next 6 to 9 month? (if this is not too long to write about...)
thanks for your view

warsaw TOMi 14:58 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
yes,Alex time will tell for sure.. ftm $ trying to appreciate across the majors board hedged by cad.

Cannes Oil man 14:55 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
BTW :
Cannes Oil man 14:17 GMT February 21, 2007
Looking to short 121.10 , with 25 pips stops , looking for 120.50 or so..A quick scalp (or stop).
gt

Still untouched atm..Went 2 pips close but ...no 10 so far.

HK Kevin 14:53 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Athens, if you are around, does your model still favour selling YEN crosses on rallies. Many thanks in advance.

UK Alex 14:51 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi 14:46 GMT February 21, 2007
Euro going down or dollar going up? USD/JPY seems reluctant to break through 121.00. Time will tell. GL & GT.

madrid mm 14:50 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
money management is one of the major keys to successful trading

warsaw TOMi 14:50 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman,yes,great cad call ystdy,made some nice pipsout of it,appreciated,ta

Cannes Oil man 14:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
mal semiji 14:43 GMT February 21, 2007

It needs to touch 1.1600 (look previous posting , same as it needed to touch 1.1700 last night).
gl gt

warsaw TOMi 14:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Ed,

cable is nailed to the short side ,watch €uro breaking 3100 mark.

Washington MRM 14:45 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
mal semiji 14:43 GMT February 21, 2007
usdcad very low now ,, anyone know why///
-----------

Retail sales released showing rise of 2.3% compared with estimates of 1.0%. Less autos, showed 2.0% compared with 0.6%.

Gen dk 14:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

mal semiji 14:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
usdcad very low now ,, anyone know why///

Hong Kong Qindex 14:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 14:16 GMT - USD/CHF : 1.2421 is the initial upside targeting point. If the market is strong enough to overcome the projected resistance at 1.2421 // 1.2434, the next targeting barrier is 1.2455 // 1.2471.

NYC Ed 14:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi have a feeling this is going to be an ENTIRE day of watching and waiting, If it breaks 45 I think we can see 75, ?any thoughts??

warsaw TOMi 14:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Ed,looks like you're glued to a perfect cable balance at 9515 for some time now..although price is vibrating up and down in over 100 pip range. good middle spot! gl/gt

Dallas GEP 14:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
long usd/cad at 1.1630

NYC Ed 14:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil....Hope you knew I meant "Shaking YOUR Hand.."

Cali mmm 14:22 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, good afteroon. Can you pls share your view on GBP/USD? I think your view is long, but is it a good idea to enter long a current levels or do you see a better opportunity at lower level?.....or are you thinking short now? TIA !

jkt-aye 14:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Good Evening Qindex. How do you see usdchf 1.2460, as it is my magnetic price level ? tia

NYC Ed 14:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil.... Shaking hands... with sweaty palms I am still holding GBP LONG..... Later Brother

PAR 14:09 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Big 1.3050 Euro put option being defended by Asian players .

Hong Kong Qindex 14:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:08 GMT February 20, 2007
USD/CHF : The market momentum is strong if it can trade above the range 1.2305 - 1.2347 - 1.2381.

Charlotte TH 14:05 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
long usdcad 1.1637.

Gen dk 14:04 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Edmonton Rob 14:03 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 14:01 GMT February 21, 2007
Edmonton Rob 13:59 GMT

I think GBP is a screaming buy here.

==================================

I think youre right looks tasty

Cannes Oil man 14:03 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
There is a 1.31--1.32 barrier on E$..

1.3095 must thus be watched , as if broken , the support will be gone...(Same applies for 1.32)...few more days till it expires.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:03 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the market is going to consolidate between 1.1590 - 1.1684 - 1.1732.

NYC Ed 14:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
OK then I was "sensative" probably that comes from being LONG when the market say's "oh no not right now"
Sorry then,
I am closing my eyes right here and still LONG I see 9600 by days end...
Anyway thanks for the words....

Washington MRM 14:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 13:59 GMT

I think GBP is a screaming buy here.

Edmonton Rob 13:59 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Anyone thinking the GBp/USD is a good buy here ?

Cannes Oil man 13:58 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 13:13 GMT February 21, 2007
Hey you don't have to get "TESTY" this is a friendly site not the PITS

--
i wasn't testy, though it might look that way, i meant i see it go up , so as i want to make pips , i long it, if i had any reasons to believe it's going down , i wouldn't be long.

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Best to play tom...it to sell EURCAD and GBPCAD on rallies. GL

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:55 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:51 GMT February 21, 2007
Bahrain:
The market has nothing to do with numbers, otherwise $/Y would be up for exemple on the day..

For Yen it was buy rumores sell facts today.

But for Canada, coz its not a big market, its easy to move it, with strong retail sales, every one start to sell the $.
Think best to play now crosses against the Canada.
Good luck to you mate. Good day

RIC fxq 13:54 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
"The market has nothing to do with numbers, otherwise $/Y would be up for exemple on the day.."

seems an imposter indeed - @12108 currently it IS up on the day.

Cannes Oil man 13:53 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I meant Yen would be up , (or $/Y down).

PAR 13:52 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
US economy heading for Stagflation .

Cannes Oil man 13:51 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain:
The market has nothing to do with numbers, otherwise $/Y would be up for exemple on the day..
No one knows why the market is moving , so if you want to think it's due to numbers , you can , i personally think market moves where money lies(Path of pain)..Stops more than limits , and options with good payouts are market movers, anything with a payout above 100 , will move the market , but particularly on super ultra light $/CAD.
gl

UK Alex 13:51 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
london phil 13:48 GMT February 21, 2007
He can't add up either!

Charlotte TH 13:50 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
cad retails up 2.3 percent.

london phil 13:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
ed some off these posts it seems arent from cannnes oilman

U.K. J.B 13:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:43 GMT February 21, 2007

I concur with your analysis re funds from last night . We had a short on ourselves which we have now sq. I thought your summing up re options etc was spot on well done my friend..

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:45 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Hi Oilman/////
It's nothing to do with the option expiry.....only coz we got strong numbers from Canada....otherwise it will follow the EURO and Cable lower. Good day to u mate. GL.

Charlotte TH 13:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
cpi 0.3 rise fastest since june 2006.

Cannes Oil man 13:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Took 11 in GBP..So 43+11 = 1.9522.

Washington MRM 13:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Long GBP/US$ at 1.9516. This one is in for the long haul - move up to 1.9570 and beyond. Will look to buy more on any further dips.

Cannes Oil man 13:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
$/CAD:
Cannes Oil man 16:01 GMT February 20, 2007
1 large expiracy at 1.1700 , next day at 1.1600.

Charlotte TH 13:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
core m/m 0.3--y/y 2.7.

PAR 13:25 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Exports focused China and Japan will always continue to manipulate their currencies so some other actions will be needed .

Charlotte TH 13:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
small short eurusd 1.3147.

Washington MRM 13:15 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 10:02 GMT February 21, 2007
Adding to GBP/US$ longs as the price gets better and better. Doing it in small increments in case it tests support at 1.9480. Currently in at 1.9502, 1.9524, and 1.9559.

-----------------------

Out at 1.9540 before consumer prices. Still looking for higher GBP though.

NYC Ed 13:13 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Hey you don't have to get "TESTY" this is a friendly site not the PITS

Cannes Oil man 13:12 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 13:06 GMT February 21, 2007

I wouln't be long if i did.
I Want to make pips , not loose so i m long GBP.

NYC Ed 13:06 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man...btw do YOU see any reason to be short this morning???

NYC Ed 13:04 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man...just about to post Since I can't see any reason for SHort to Cable I am NOW long @ 47...

Cannes Oil man 13:00 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Longed 43 GBP$ ..

UK Alex 12:59 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Some heavy option protection in USD/JPY going on here.

mal semiji 12:59 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
hello all,,, anyone know high for usdcad ,,tq

Cannes Oil man 12:53 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
The same applies to GBP/AUD..another 100 pips or so , before the big rise.

Cannes Oil man 12:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn , regarding your GBP/NZ question , I am myself waiting 2.76 to long for 2.88 again.
gl gt

Cannes Oil man 12:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Taking 9 pips on $/CAD (I can probably reshort the same 1.1705).

Cannes Oil man 12:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Taking 26 pips on GBP$ , and relonging 1.9500.

London Misha 12:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
In case anyone is interested in minor European currencies, rumours that there may be a devaluation in the offing for the LVL

jkt-aye 12:24 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
ok Oilman, good trades.

UK Alex 12:17 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Core inflation is steady at 1.4%. BNP Paribas expecting it to rebound in February/Février.

PAR 12:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
French CPI is pointing to deflation and making the case for a ECB hike intellectually very difficult .

UK Alex 12:03 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Yasuo Ota writing on July's hike:
It was just like slowing the momentum of an aircraft set to take off. The airplane, or the Japanese economy, needs to restore itself to the right position and accelerate again to avoid a fatal accident.

manchester 11:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
caba, anthony vellosa

PAR 11:45 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Higher Japanese interest rates could become problem for subprime borrowers .

Cannes Oil man 11:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I will in march restart posting stops and entries , like in September/October//November Marathon , with the idea to break October pips, which i haven't been able to break so far , though coming close this month.

Cannes Oil man 22:15 GMT October 31, 2006
Record broken.
2989.

Taking a 2 hours break , gl and gt.

RIC fxq 11:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
hand grenades & horseshoes

Cannes Oil man 11:31 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
159.00 target EY was nearly done (2 pips away).
Goodie.
jkt-aye : I use a forex pip stick.

Philadelphia Caba 11:30 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
manchester av 10:55 GMT
... let me guess who you are...

mal semiji 11:27 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
hello cannes,, do u know today high range for usd cad n gbpusd ,, tq so much

Cannes Oil man 11:15 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Taking 80 pips here on GBPJPY from 235.10 at 235.90 , a very nice run while sleeping (160 pips combined $/Y and GBPJPY) , will long again 235.10.
gt

jkt-aye 11:14 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Oilman ... if may i ask, which kind of basis you do your analysis ? i mean pure tech or you mix it with fundamental and any flow you know ? i just trying to understand it, btw keep it up as it help me to understand market movement. tvm

Bratislava 11:13 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
manchester av 10:55 GMT
There is still chance (even though it's marginal) it won't move either side :)

manchester av 10:55 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
someone here is gonna be spectacularly wrong on cable, but who is it going to be?

Hong Kong Qindex 10:52 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is working on the daily cycle barrier at 120.71* // 120.88. The next barrier is 121.17 // 121.40 if the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the projected resistance at 120.88.

Cannes Oil man 10:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP$ is a great long at 1.9500.
40 pips stops or so , targets 1.97..
It's probably attractive to short, like NZ or $/Y was, but we're approaching the strong move up.
gl gt

Hong Kong Qindex 10:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : the market is working on the weekly cycle barrier at 0.7892 // 0.7918*.

madrid mm 10:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:35 GMT February 21, 2007
PAR 10:34 GMT February 21, 2007

i should i bet the house on these carry trades !!! lol So now i would be in a warm place to trade on my yatch !!!

Athens MK 10:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$: Looking for a daily low around 1.9416 - 1.9440 if bearish bias continues....

1.9520 area is not bad to re-enter shorts for 1.9416 touched low....

UK Alex 10:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:34 GMT February 21, 2007
I meant, further increases in the inflation rate.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position. The projected barrier at 1.9399 // 1.9464 is going to be tested.

UK Alex 10:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:34 GMT February 21, 2007
Falling oil prices will make further inflation unlikely too.

Cannes Oil man 10:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Ah , NZD made a break while i slept..A good puppy NZD.

PAR 10:34 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Don t think Japanese economy can sustain sky high interest rates of 0.50 % . Such high interest rates will definitely cause a serious recession . Lol.

Syd 10:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
COPENHAGEN (AP)--Denmark was expected to announce plans to begin withdrawing its troops from Iraq at a news conference on Wednesday, Danish media reported.

The news conference in Copenhagen was expected to coincide with a U.K. announcement of a new timetable for the withdrawal of that country's troops from Iraq, the TV2 news channel reported. The 460-strong Danish contingent serves under U.K. command in the southern Iraqi city of Basra.

Hong Kong Qindex 10:31 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is working on the weekly cycle barrier at 120.64 // 121.01.

Cannes Oil man 10:25 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Took profit on $/Y longs(~~80 pips)
And went long 1.9500 GBP$..

gl gt

Athens MK 10:23 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Keeping with this strategy:

Athens MK 18:56 GMT February 20, 2007
GBP/$: Here is a level breakdown on cable. The numbers I gave below are valid but these numbers are generated from a second strategy that is being used.

Sell:
1. 1.9539
2. 1.9599
3. 1.9639
4. 1.9729

Profit:
1. 1.9469
2. 1.9339
2. 1.9259

Stop/Reverse:
1.9809

This is a weekly swing trade.... GLGT

Mla Evan 10:22 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, Aud above 0.7872, what's the range now?

madrid mm 10:21 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Singapore Cub 09:39 GMT February 21, 2007

this is what we would all love to know....
If you are really new, the real question is not to gues where is one currency pair is going , but more questions like these
- do i have a system to trade ?
-do i have a plan ?
and many more....
8-) ...and keep learning

Hong Kong Qindex 10:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the upside targeting points are 0.6757 and 0.6767.

Dallas GEP 10:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Closed rest of gbp shorts here mainly becuase eur/gbp should be topping out

Syd 10:09 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
French January CPI shows France is "not threatened by inflation but by deflation," says Marc Touati of ACDE. January CPI came in 0.3% lower on the month and up 1.2% compared to January 2006, "therefore even if prices are corrected to the upside in the next months, it is almost inevitable inflation will be below 1% by April, to 0.7% according to our forecast...Be it in France or in Germany, in spite of the VAT rate hike there, (eurozone) inflation remains desperately weak... how could the ECB with an inflation below 2% justify any additional monetary tightening? There is no rational answer."

Charlotte TH 10:06 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 08:22 GMT February 21, 2007
short gbpusd 1.9572.

----------
closed half at 1.9498.stops for the rest at 1.9572.

London The Holy Grail 10:05 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Yeap MPC turned out the sentiment into squaring up the holders of an strange daily no sense cable bias. This mostly for longs as from early the week and behind, while shorts have been truncated mostly onto the 1.96 test which again has prooven as a very solid level again. Largerly while 1.92 1.93 from year beginning are seemingly the upper trend orginating supports towards the 2.04 levels - the current picture has taken a pause from the 199/198 rejections and setting an cloudy and large pip stealing approach to play against those hoping for trends.

The UsdJpy confirmed the rebound from 119 11950, and most longs waiting the area around 122 to be seen before anything. 119.50 119 are dense of optioners while 118 is the critical level that holds the uptrend intact.

Washington MRM 10:02 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Adding to GBP/US$ longs as the price gets better and better. Doing it in small increments in case it tests support at 1.9480. Currently in at 1.9502, 1.9524, and 1.9559.

Still looking for large bullish move to test 1.9700.

UK Alex 09:59 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Knockout option USD/JPY expires today.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 09:57 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Short term view usd/jpy: The key support was tested but never broken from there it has bounced and taken out the main resistance. This pair is bullish and ready to go up some more. Next key resistance and buying signal is around the 120.94-121.04 area for now. It is buy on dips for this pair until the main support (120.30-40) is broken IMHO. Peace and GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:42 GMT February 15, 2007
***The usd/jpy has taken out the main support (120.20-30) and key support 119-119.10 awaits but with indicators in the O/S area this pair is running out of time. Mid term key resistance (118.70-60) awaits to further solidify this move IMHO. Peace and GT

UK Alex 09:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Actually, interest rate differentials do matter as it is one of the fundamental forces behind money flows.

Maribor 09:54 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Singapore Cub 09:39 GMT

Currencies go up and down according to how big boyz(boyz who understand the game) most easily succeed taking money away form ones who don't. It doesn't matter how interest rates(or something else) are going to change. It matters if you win money or if you lose money.

UK Alex 09:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Singapore Cub 09:39 GMT February 21, 2007
The Bank of Japan Wednesday left its core economic assessment in February unchanged from January, repeating that a moderate economic expansion continues.

"Japan's economy is expanding moderately," the BOJ's latest report said, using the same phrase it used last month.

As for the outlook for the economy, the BOJ repeated its optimistic view, saying that "Japan's economy is expected to expand moderately."

The report suggests that the BOJ's view on a sustainable economic recovery and improving prices remains unchanged.

"Private consumption remains solid, " the BOJ report said.

This solid economic view, in addition to strong gross domestic product for the October-December period, which grew 1.2% from the prior quarter, justified the BOJ in raising interest rates earlier Wednesday.

But the report said on-year rises in the core consumer price index may fall close to zero in the coming month due to the recent decline in crude oil prices.

But it added that on-year growth in the core CPI is expected to stay in positive territory, improving the supply/demand gap of the economy.

The BOJ's policy board earlier Wednesday voted 8 to 1 to tighten monetary policy.

The central bank raised the unsecured overnight call loan rate target to 0.50% from 0.25%, the first time for it to raise rates since July 2006.

manchester 09:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
closed short cable from 9576 to 9517. see what happens now

Charlotte TH 09:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Singapore Cub 09:39 GMT February 21, 2007
Cub,this one goes up with a rate hike in japan.

infact the rise was priced in and was considered nominal as rates still very low at 0.50 percent after BOJ rise so it does not matter too much and we have 120.70 day high.

Washington MRM 09:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Long GBP/US$. Good potential here for major reversal and run-up of 100 or so points.

Bratislava 09:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 09:38 GMT
FYI
04:32 BoE MPC minutes came out with consensus at 7-2 vote with Sentence and Besley dissenting in favor of a rate hike.

Singapore Cub 09:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I'm a new trader, just wondering if USD/JPY currency pair will goes up with the interest rate increase or goes down?

Sydney ACC 09:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
What happened to cable from 1.9555 to 1.9508 in less than a minute, still 50 minutes to MPC minutes release?

Gen dk 09:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

manchester 09:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
thanks tomi / gep

warsaw TOMi 09:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
manchester,1st target 9508 take off 1 here, then probably 9462-80

Dallas GEP 09:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Closed some of the gBP shorts here, rest have stop at 1.9550

manchester 09:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
any opitions on cable now? im short from 9576.

Washington MRM 09:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Waiting to see if GBP/US$ will base here for a minute or whether it will push lower. Wanting to get long GBP/US$.

UK Alex 09:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Sentance and Besley?

Auckland trotter 09:31 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
For the EUR/USD:
I see the level of around 1.3143 of interest from the 5min 5day chart for more down, with a daily pivot of 1.3151.

Sold at 1.3153 after a late start to trading.

The 1hr 5day chart shows a ranging market.

Starting to see some increasing down pressure on the EUR/USD. Will trade the short indicators for now until the longer ones give confirmation. This, for me also gives the opportunities of bouncing the price - which I will do, until ’my understanding the trading range’ on the short term charts, tells me out.

Charlotte TH 09:30 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
7-2.

London Gooner 09:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
BOE 7-2

PAR 09:20 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Long term target of Kampo and BOJ remains at 125.00 and even interest rates of 0.50% are only virtual interest rates for a Monopoly currency . The only item of interest for Japan is EXports, Exports and Exports .

London Gooner 09:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cable seems to have room for upside test (technically). It is still in large inverted SHS dating back from 1.9847 high. Seems trading in a rising daily wedge with technicals pointing to eventual new highs before completion / divergence (Mid term).
Short term penetrating 1.9590/9620 opens 1.9710 without much in the way. Am long and find it early to book profit or thinking of shorting, just using stops in profit area approach as BOE minutes - US CPI - FOMC minutes all on same can off course create enough intraday swings. we'll see.

madrid mm 09:14 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:56 GMT February 21, 2007
8-)

dogs with no teeth !!!! wouf wouf wouf !!! lol

Charlotte TH 09:05 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
manchester 08:56 GMT February 21, 2007
think it would be a divided vote not unanimous.let us see what is the outcome.

Gen dk 09:02 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

PAR 08:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
A lot of verbal intervention by BOJ and japanese government to weaken the yen and to encourage carry trades. Same with SNB Roth , must be the only central banker in the world who admits that he is always wrong.

manchester 08:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
im also short and hoping there was unanimous decision of BOE interest rate decision.

Charlotte TH 08:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
manchester 08:45 GMT February 21, 2007

will sell once more between 1.9600 and 25 if seen,stops for all at 9650.

manchester 08:45 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
charlotte, what s/l do you have in mind?

Sofia mik 08:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
today have a meeting for Airbus problems, all buy Boeing
next meeting wil be for eurocars vs jpn cars.
gl,gt

Syd 08:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
French CPI in January was lower than expected, -0.3% month-on-month, +1.2% year-on-year. "Flash estimate of Eurozone inflation is likely to be confirmed at 1.9% in January," says Sylvain Broyer from Ixis-CIB. But to him, only the rise in German VAT is likely to bring the 2.0% Eurozone threshold to be overshot in the coming months, adding "its not an easy game for the European Central Bank to justify the next hike in rates."

Syd 08:34 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Japan PM Abe: BOJ Rate Rise Was Appropriate

Charlotte TH 08:22 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
short gbpusd 1.9572.

Sofia mik 08:22 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 07:52 GMT February 21, 2007

Hi, I expect big gain from jpy vs chf /90-88

imho,gl/gl

Syd 08:07 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Wednesday the central bank plans to adjust the country's interest rate levels gradually, but that it isn't considering carrying out consecutive rate hikes.

"While we will maintain very accommodative (monetary) conditions, we plan to adjust interest rate levels gradually based on movements in the economy and prices," Fukui told reporters after board members voted 8-1 to tighten monetary policy.

He also said the BOJ is "completely open" about the timing of its next rate hike.

Fukui said keeping excessively easy monetary conditions for the long term could cause "distortion" in economic and market activities and in distribution of economic resources, and thus hinder sustainable economic growth.

lugano fc 07:52 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 06:41 GMT February 21, 2007



...remember that somebody has bought these huges amount of jpy and i think they dont want to loose either. so i think they will made jpy stronger ... causing the balloon of the carry trade to explode...

madrid mm 07:51 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
courtesy of bloomberg.com-
Yen Declines as Bank of Japan Says Interest Rate Increases Will Be Gradual The yen fell for a fourth day as the Bank of Japan said interest-rate increases will be gradual, after policy makers raised borrowing costs for the second time in eight months.

UBS Cuts Pound Forecast, Predicting 5.4 Percent Drop Versus Euro in a Year UBS AG, the second-biggest currency trader, cut its one-year forecasts for the British pound, predicting the Bank of England has finished a 1 1/2-year cycle of raising interest rates.

Australian, N.Z. Dollars Rise, Reverse Loss; BOJ Signals Rate to Stay Low The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose against the yen, reversing losses, after the Bank of Japan said interest rates will stay low after raising the cost of borrowing by a quarter-percentage point to 0.5 percent.

Asian Currencies Decline as Yen's Drop May Prompt Central Banks to Sell Asian currencies fell as the yen slid to a one-week low against the dollar, increasing speculation the region's central banks will sell their currencies to help exports.

India Rupee May Fall on Speculation Importers to Buy Dollars for Month End India's rupee may decline for a third day on speculation importers will sell the currency for dollars to pay month-end bills.

Sydney ACC 07:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 07:14 GMT February 21, 2007
Edmonton Rob 07:10 GMT
FWIW for the last four days GBP has been well bid into and after the 16:00 GMT fix. There has been significant real money buying, plus a large corporation was asking for prices in amounts of GBP 50 mill yesterday afternoon.

Washington MRM 07:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Thanks... even a blind squirrell finds a nut sometime.

--------------

Closed my small short USD/JPY from 119.77 at 120.30 for loss. Didn't want to worry about it anymore. Think 120.50 has capped it, but cross action may get wild and push it up. Better to be on the sidelines now.

Edmonton Rob 07:28 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Thats a really smart move actually

Washington MRM 07:24 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 07:19 GMT

Well, I don't want to jump in now for two reasons. 1) I am nervous about the MPC minutes. I would rather not guess at what they will say because UK data has been partially soft this month and the MPC is quite unpredictable. 2) This 1.9570-80 level seems to be significant resistance and should provide a better opportunity to buy lower. So, right now I am risking 30 pips (buying at 1.9590 instead of 1.9560) to be perfectly sure that the upward move will occur from here (as opposed to a lower price).

Dallas GEP 07:24 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
shorted GBP at 1.9560 traget 1,9450

Syd 07:24 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: BOJ Heading For 2% But 6-Month Break Likely-Macq

Edmonton Rob 07:19 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
if you forsee 1.9710 why not jump in now? is the 1.9590 level something thats important?

Washington MRM 07:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Closed my GBP longs at 1.9565.

Washington MRM 07:14 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 07:10 GMT

Yes, seems like today Europe does not want to sell, but buy GBP. Maybe some anxiety over MPC. Buy breakout over 50 day moving average at 1.9590. I will also buy more there. Hopefully we have enough juice. Then, it's off to the races - 1.9710 should not be far behind.

Plovdiv Gotin 07:12 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 06:56 GMT February 21, 2007
Any thoughts on the GBP/USD?

Above 1.9555/65-->1.9620/30...1.9650/60...1.9700. Under 1.9666/45-->1.9480/50/30. GT.

Edmonton Rob 07:10 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 07:02 GMT February 21, 2007

well the ship has sailed on the GBP/USD, shes moved up pretty quickly

madrid mm 07:10 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

BoJ votes to raise overnight call target from 0.25% to 0.50% by majority vote of 8-1, and Lombard rate from 0.40% to 0.75%. BoJ Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata opposes raising overnight call rate and Lombard rate.

BoJ says it will maintain pace of its outright JGB buying for now. To adjust interest rates gradually, interest rates to stay low. Consumer prices to rise as a trend, and private consumption on moderate increasing trend.

MoF Koji Omi says Govt respects BoJ decision.

Japan Trade Minister Akira Amari says that weak JPY is not driving exports and currencies are determined by market.

MoF official Ezaki says currencies are determined by market and disorderly FX moves are not desirable - Bloomberg.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens says monetary policy is on mild side of restrictive, rates are more likely to rise than fall. Conditions for RBA rate cuts are not in place and it is too early to be talking of rate cuts. Recent rate hikes still working through economy. Thinks rates are at right level at moment.

SNB President Jean-Pierre Roth, in interview with Swiss paper Finanz and Wirtschaft says CHF interest rates are not high enough to ensure price stability and investors, exporters should not ignore risks of carry trades. SNB has duty to warn the market of risks of carry trades. Weak CHF requires vigilance of SNB. CHF FX vs EUR out of line with economic fundamentals, and situation of CHF FX could be "fragile"

Very choppy trading today as ALL eyes were on BoJ decision, right from the start of the session, and the action started even before official BoJ Announcement - which voted 8-1 to hike rates.

In early trading, talks US funds bought good amount of USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, after the fixing buying from Japanese banks, securities houses, with fixing set at 120.33, amidst talks of Japanese investors, "toushin" demand.

The aggressive buying by funds after triggered stoploss at 120.50 to 120.56, and EUR/JPY above 158.20 to 158.44.

Market then sold USD/JPY down to 119.75 from 120.20-25, and EUR/JPY from 158.00-10 to 157.33 on NHK report that BoJ Fukui has proposed rate hike.

Then the >1 hour wait, before official decision of 8-1, triggered knee-jerk sales to 119.69/ 157.33, only to spike up to 120.52/ 158.33 as market bought on fact, after selling earlier, and also on fact that BoJ Dep Gov Iwata opposed the rate hike.

Talks large US investment houses, Japanese were big buyers. Stops above 120.60.

GBP/JPY big mover as well, having rose to 235.70 on earlier bouts of buying, then dipping below 234 on NHK report and then BoJ Rate hike decision, before spiking up to 237.20-25 again.

Focus on both BoJ Toshihiko Fukui news conference at 0630GMT after the BoJ Rate hike and also on BoE MPC Minutes of February meeting.

AUD/USD supported initially by RBA Stevens that rates may likely to rise than fall.

CHF seeing some buying on SNB Roth comments on carry trades. Focus on US CPI tonight and Fed FOMC Minutes.

Nikkei -25.91pts at 17,913, JGBs off lows after BoJ Decision, focus on BoJ Fukui. 10-yr yield -0.010% at 1.690%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.20/119.57, EUR/USD 1.3129/1.3146, GBP/USD 1.9505/1.9535, USD/CHF 1.2336/1.2354, AUD/USD 0.7832/0.7854, NZD/USD 0.6926/0.6968.

Edmonton Rob 07:03 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Im very tempted to short the EUR/USD over night here into the 1.3090 range

Washington MRM 07:02 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 06:56 GMT

I think long GBP/US$ is good position here. Good chance to challenge the upper levels (1.9570) again before the MPC minutes. Think that a 7-2 vote is hawkish for sterling. Also, EUR/US$ basing at 1.3130, which should help keep the US$ from gathering too much steam.

Edmonton Rob 07:00 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Reading commentary on the EUR/USD saying it should basically be bid hard into 1.3095 anyone else seeing some weakening in the Euro down into that range?

HK [email protected] 06:58 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   

Trading in yen should not be anymore narrowly minded perceived only on interest rate differentials.

That is a story every child knows.

Now that a super inflated markets have been established (some estimate from 350Bi to 1000Bi Dollars), by the carry trade, the job of those inside it ,is to find new suckers to support those inflated markets.

Now that a super deflationary Balloned-bomb has been established, one has to look for the needle which will implode it.
That is the element no one will know, until it happens, may be a sudden default of a big fund or a country.

Edmonton Rob 06:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Any thoughts on the GBP/USD?

Van jv 06:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
The central bank said further increases will be gradual and that prolonging a low-interest-rate policy could hamper growth in the world's second-largest economy. Higher rates may discourage investors from borrowing in yen to buy overseas assets, the so-called carry trade that helped drive Japan's currency to a 21-year low against its trading partners.
Bloomberg

Charlotte TH 06:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:40 GMT February 21, 2007
Charlotte TH 06:32 GMT February 21, 2007
-----------------------------------------
ohh dear,it is not about if it will be hike or no hike but how many of mpc nine mmbers voted for and against.

UK AL 06:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
UK AL 22:32 GMT February 18, 2007
long eurchf 1.6217,s/l 1.6180,target m/t 1.6350.


market headed for 1.6350.closing part at 1.6263 stops to entry.

HK [email protected] 06:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
There are big interests behind the carry trade, whom do not want to see the yen appreciating.

On the hourly chart watch the chart formation of USD/YEN, which if the yen-bears will have the upper hand, can send the yen to about 121.50.

On the other hand all the hourly trade in yen is below the 200Hr.Ma. So the weaker side for the yen is not yet well established . So for the next few hours likely expect a range trading.

CT Cris 06:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 06:32 GMT February 21, 2007
...vote will be no hike.

Charlotte TH 06:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:29 GMT February 21, 2007
it is not the decision day Cris if you are forgetting.only intimation of how they voted and comments they made at the last met.

Bahrain Bahrain1 06:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 06:22 GMT February 21, 2007
Yesterday, London came in and sold GBP and EUR. Should this happen again.


Hi there....you are right....not just yesterday...for the last couple of days...London selling Cable and NY they are buying it back. let see if same story will happen today. GL

CT Cris 06:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
gbp no hike.

Washington MRM 06:22 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Yesterday, London came in and sold GBP and EUR. Should this happen again.

Entered longs of GBP/US$ at 1.9530. Will try to get out of them before MPC minutes at 1.9560.

Syd 06:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Japan's Topix Index Ends Highest Since November 1991

USA BAY 06:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

You are one of those whom I always feel very confident and comfortable to ask views on certain pairs because of your clear and accurate reply. Thanks a mil. I normally dont trade nzd pairs, just thought of it but will stay away. Thanks again

Sydney ACC 06:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 06:02 GMT February 21, 2007
Mate, do yourself a favour and leave it alone.
There's an interest rate decision on Monday where most pundits expect RBNZ to increase by 25 bp to 7.5%.

Let me tell you a little thing, NZ has a monthly current account deficit of approx. NZD 1.2 billion that is almost 10% of the country's GDP. On fundamentals Kiwi should be trading around 55 US cents, its not because there is about 7% pa interest differential with Japan. Now over the last 2 1/2 years Japanese investors have been buying Kiwi Uridashis to the extent of NZD 700 million per month on average.
Now then apart from the first half of last year Kiwi has been bid for almost 5 years. It is still bid because of the interest differential, but one day the sky will fall in, but can't short it and wait for that to happen, you'll end up like Chicken Little.
Leave it alone and trade something easier.

Edmonton Rob 06:03 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Anyone think that 1.9500 for the GBP/USD is likely overnight?

USA BAY 06:02 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

KIWI, do you think it is a short at this point or there is more upside to come. Thanks

Charlotte TH 06:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
120.60-119.50 is the day's range for usdjpy this boj day.

Sydney ACC 05:55 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 05:49 GMT February 21, 2007
No worries, Mate.
See hgow the market reacted - Yen went offered, Euro did nothing, GBP moved a spread, AUD moved two spreads and Kiwi moved 30 points.
Incredible currency.
In FX we all learn something new every day, when you don't thats when you start to lose.

lugano fc 05:54 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
holding long jpy. stops still 120.80 and 159.30.

Charlotte TH 05:52 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
sold small nzdusd 0.7024.

CT PT 05:50 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oilman,
What's the SL for GBP/JPY long?
TIA,

USA BAY 05:49 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Thanks for the explanation. Learnt something today.

Washington MRM 05:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Interesting to note that there has been muted reaction of GBP and EUR versus US$. Suggests to me that crosses are not that firm.

However, with the US calander with CPI in morning and Fed minutes in the afternoon, likely to be a rough day for US$.

Syd 05:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
BOJ rate hike decision unlikely to hamper Japan economic growth, says Mizuho Research Institute senior economist Tomoyuki Ohta; "certainly, domestic consumer spending and prices haven't yet fully recovered, but Japan's economy will continue to grow amid robust corporate performance and exports regardless of the rate hike." Given strong 4Q GDP data last week, "it appears that the BOJ concluded that Japan's economy could tolerate tightening."

Bodrum OEE 05:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
One can fall with disequillibriumed confidence - GN and GL - Good night and good luck

Sydney ACC 05:43 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi has gone bid 0.7030

Edmonton Rob 05:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
SO now what? Where do we think the dust is gonna settle tonight for the USD/JPY?

Sydney ACC 05:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 05:27 GMT February 21, 2007
Can someone explain why yen is going down despite the BOJ hike. Thanks

A 25bp increase will reduce the investment flow it will not stem it. Some investors will think twice, however, the magnitude of interest differential will still entice others to invest overseas. As a consequence yen will continue to be sold.

USA BAY 05:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OILMAN,

So all the yen pairs will move up from here. With the BOE tonite, most probably there wont be a rate hike, do you still expect gbp/jpy to reach 240. Thanks a lot

Washington MRM 05:40 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Very odd market right now. Fukui speaks in hour(ish). Still think that because he proposed the hike, he might be bullish on Japanese economy and hawkish on rates. Might see a move below 120, which is where I will try to cut this short. (I was not being cautious per my previous statement...)

Cannes Oil man 05:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY:

Cannes Oil man 02:48 GMT February 21, 2007
Washington MRM 02:33 GMT February 21, 2007

Though market now sees a hike at 68%..(see cumino post)..AND yen is weakening, that is revealing...

It's been so far as usual...Buy the rumour , sell the fact..Now market has already priced in the hike..meanwhile $/Y moves up...
////
It's moving up cause it's priced in...buy the distant rumour, sell the fact.

London C 05:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
mrm ..apparently topside usd/jpy should be limited ...going back to catching Z'eds....

tokyo 05:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
>Anyone think USD/JPY will fall back to 112.20?

In this Autumn, I suppose.

Spotforex NY 05:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
BOJ toned down the rate hike...saying accommodative rates to remain, future rate moves will be gradual....plus no real technical damage on charts......for the moment....

Vancouver PINK 05:34 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
sorry...its late...i meant 120.20

Syd 05:34 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Japan MOF Omi: Respect BOJ Decision -Specific Interest Rate Level Up To BOJ-Kyodo
Last Summer's Pvt Consumption Weakness Seems Temporary

Vancouver PINK 05:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Anyone think USD/JPY will fall back to 112.20?

Charlotte TH 05:32 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
shorted small at 120.39.

Charlotte TH 05:31 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 10:13 GMT February 20, 2007
Charlotte TH 23:07 GMT February 18, 2007
long usdjpy 119.33 with stops at 118.90.

------------
closed half at 119.96.stops for rest at entry.
------------
closed rest at 120.43.

hk ab 05:31 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
seems some exporters barrier seen

USA BAY 05:27 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Can someone explain why yen is going down despite the BOJ hike. Thanks

Cannes Oil man 05:25 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Off to sleep , See you at 240 GBPJPY.

gl gt

Cannes Oil man 05:24 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Longed GBPJPY 235.10.

hk ab 05:23 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
upmove by 1 fig......

Washington MRM 05:23 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
got that one wrong.

Cannes Oil man 05:21 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Long $Y 119.98

Syd 05:21 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
20 *DJ BOJ: CPI Expected To Keep Upward Trend
MARKET TALK: BOJ Rate Hike Impact On Stocks Likely Brief
Lead JGB Futures Fall After BOJ Raises Interest Rates
BOJ: Policy Decision Aims To Achieve Sustainable Growth
BOJ: Can Keep Accommodative Monetary Environment
BOJ: To Gradually Adjust Rates Based On Econ, Prices
Fukui To Meet Press On Meeting Result At 0630 GMT
Leaves JGB Buying Unchanged At Y1.2 Tln Monthly
Rate Hike First Since July 006

Govt Didn't Request Board To Postpone Voting
Raises Lombard Rate To 0.75% From 0.40%
Board Votes 8-1 To Hike Lombard Rate
Board Votes 8-1 To Hike Policy Rates
Raises Overnight Call Rate To 0.50% Vs 0.25%

Washington MRM 05:20 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
8-1 vote by BOJ to raise rates 0.25%... went short small US$/JPY at 119.77.

Should see a big figure move today.

Bahrain Bahrain1 05:20 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
BOJ hikes rates 25bp to 0.5%

Washington MRM 05:14 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
London C 05:10 GMT

Usually sleep... too much working today...

Thinking about shorting US$/JPY, but the decision has (basically) already been announced... since Fukui was the one to propose the rate hike, he should be hawkish at conference. Still I think cautious traders will prevail.

gl/gt

London C 05:10 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 00:46 GMT February 21, 2007

Cheers mrm ..5 gmt ,,dont these ppl sleep?!! :)

Edmonton Rob 05:07 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Anyone Short the USD/JPY pre announcement?

Washington MRM 05:00 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 02:53 GMT

Yes, I will go long GBP at 1.9470 if hit before BOE minutes. I think that better prices to enter long are coming, but if it doesn't the risk/reward is not right to enter here.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:53 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 119.41. The market is going to to consolidate between 118.57 - 119.15 - 119.41.

Mumbai NS 04:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Nothing just that it did look back quite deeply at the prices

Charlotte TH 04:45 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
nzdusd has given in to the anxiety there.

tokyo 04:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
then what do you want to say?

SINGAPORE GFX 04:39 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
And 109 not so very long ago

Mumbai NS 04:37 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Well we went to 114.50 not so long ago

Syd 04:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo Unlikely To Ask BOJ To Delay - Nikkei

Nikkei reports government "likely" to not request delay in vote for rate hike proposed by BOJ Governor Fukui, which if true (no source cited), means board faces no obstacle in raising overnight call rate to 0.5%; to be sure, board probably has enough votes to override government request in any case.

Charlotte TH 04:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
the G7's haven't had much affect on jpy.let us see what BOJ does to it.last time they raised rates usdjpy rose for a few hundred pips and never looked back at the trading prices again.

Reading,Pa 04:20 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I am long on Eur/Usd, what you guys think?
Thanks

Ankara-Bodrum OEE 04:14 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
One could be

Syd 04:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei retreats on reports BOJ to propose rate hike, index now down 0.4% at 17867.91. Banks surge on reports Resona Holdings (8308.TO) jumps 2.9% to Y354,000 while TSE Reit index turns negative now down 0.1% at 2329.84. Topix meanwhile stays up 0.1% at 1784.22 partly propelled by jump in banking sector. Overall stock market reaction seems muted though, say observers. "The market was pricing in a 60% chance of a hike, even if the economists were saying otherwise, so for most people the result isn't a shock," says Masanaga Kono strategist at Societe Generale Asset Management.

USA BAY 04:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Dr Q With BOJ out, where is the gbp/jpy heading to please. Thanks a lot

hk ab 04:06 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
oilman and me are not nervous.

LKWD JJ 04:02 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
longs in $Y got nervous

Cannes Oil man 03:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Ab, has been written extensively below..(For GBP, Yen , etc)..

Yen weakning.

Vail MC 03:55 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened against the
dollar after NHK Television reported in a news flash Bank of
Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui proposed raising the central
bank's benchmark interest-rate target.
The NHK report didn't say whether the proposal had been
approved.The yen rose to 119.81 a dollar at 12:47 p.m. in Tokyo fromas low as 120.53 and from 120.02 in New York late yesterday. It climbed to 157.60 per euro from as low as 158.31.

Syd 03:55 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui proposed that the central bank raise interest rates at a two-day policy board meeting ending Wednesday, national broadcaster NHK, Kyodo News and the Nikkei reported, without citing sources.

The Nikkei reported that Fukui proposed raising the overnight call rate by 25 basis points to 0.5%.

The meeting is expected to end shortly.

The last time the BOJ raised interest rates was in July, when it increased its key overnight lending rate to 0.25% from virtually zero.

hk ab 03:51 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
oilman, your view?

melbourne DC 03:50 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
if official confirmation is no hike , that would be christmas come 10mth early. and just as likely. but still key is 5-4 or 6-3.

Vail MC 03:49 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
There is no rate decision yet. The yen strength is coming from a headline out of Japan.

melbourne DC 03:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
next to watch is vote

Edmonton Rob 03:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Apperently theres no decision out yet

Vail M 03:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
KYODO says Bank of Japan Governor Fukui proposes rate increase.

Vancouver PINK 03:45 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
whoa...is it going to consolidate?

melbourne DC 03:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
hike

hk ab 03:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
can anyone post the statement? syd? TIA

Edmonton Rob 03:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 03:42 GMT February 21, 2007
yen dropped 40 pips

What was the deal with that?

LKWD JJ 03:42 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
yen dropped 40 pips

FW CS 03:38 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
A BOJ hike and even a mildly hawkish statement will set off some good Yen strength next few days. A hike and neutral statement would be mildy bearish Yen, the markets range for a little while more and of course no hike and/or a dovish statement would be bad for Yen

hk ab 03:35 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
seeems decision is out.

Vancouver PINK 03:29 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I just want to clarify....if the BOJ is GOOD for the yen, then the pair USD/JPY should actually fall as people would be buying the yen? Or am I wrong in this thinking?

FW CS 03:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
I feel again the Yen has everything to gain and nothing to lose from this BOJ decision. Also my guess is there was some type of deal made at G7 if they leave the Yen off the statement then Japan starts hiking to strenghten Yen. Seems like Yen strength is also the minority opinion and with the Yen the minority usually wins.

Edmonton Rob 03:12 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
auckland peat 02:57 GMT February 21, 2007

Im starting to think youre right about that

Either way all i know for sure is its gonna be a busy night =)

auckland peat 02:57 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Isnt it looking more and more like the threat of a rate hike has been the only thing keeping the lid on the cauldron and now all those yen crosses are about to burst upwards once the rumour gets clarified into fact.
Seems to me (admittedly on a relatively short time scale) the yens getting sold off again

FW CS 02:53 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man
The Yen did a counter to the next day trend right before G7 because everyine was so sure there would be absolutley no mention of the Yen or Japan. That was when $/Yen was at 122. So maybe a similar move setting up here.

Edmonton Rob 02:53 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 02:49 GMT February 21, 2007

Would you be a buying Long if we hit 1.9470 in the GBP/USD? That would be a temping area

Cannes Oil man 02:52 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
One has to think of what the other guys will do in playing markets (A chess game) , So right now the boj will hike..Fine, however market has priced that in , and is already BEHIND the hike, that there won't be ANY hikes for awhile...The HIKE move was done last week , dropping from 121.8 to 119...Now market wants more than a 25 bps , if yen has to strengthen...So minutes will be what might move the yen to stronger , hike is already , priced and discounted....No hike would be a KILLER (Yen weakening FAST)..

Washington MRM 02:49 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 02:44 GMT

I think BOJ hike weakens GBP to 1.9470 support. Then it waits for uk mpc minutes.

gl/gt

Cannes Oil man 02:48 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 02:33 GMT February 21, 2007

Though market now sees a hike at 68%..(see cumino post)..AND yen is weakening, that is revealing...

It's been so far as usual...Buy the rumour , sell the fact..Now market has already priced in the hike..meanwhile $/Y moves up , so even a little spike won't pull it sub 119 atm...Few hours to wait, though boj will as usual make us wait till 6 GMT min....

Edmonton Rob 02:47 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Im reading possible 1.3090 range for the EUR/USD in the aftermath of this BOJ announcement. Looks like a temping short Id love to see what everyone thinks of that

NY Ed 02:44 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM...what's YOUR take on BOJ hike to the GBP/USD

Washington MRM 02:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 02:25 GMT

I think the BOJ will hike for 2 reasons - 1) they must show they are independent from the Japanese officials that have been jawboning... and 2) they only need to convert 2 of the members (as 3 already voted for an increase last meeting)...

I think that a hike will be enough to send the JPY higher in the near term at least. It will be like a roller coaster once it starts to fall, compounding the action.

Cannes Oil man 02:25 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
You are right, IF and ONLY if the boj makes very and i mean very hawkish talks in the minute...

Cause hiking .25 is bs...When rates are at next to 0% , for YEARS , it's just a drop in the ocean..I don't think , there's much out there for the BOJ to be hawkish about, at least further than the 25 bps hike..Plus they are very aware that too much hawkish , would send carry plays down the meat grinder , and that is a no no..(At least they must TRY to prevent it , that's actually what CB's are for: stability)..
It must if it has to go down , do so in an "orderly fashion"..Which Yen has never done..(Go down in an orderly fashion, it just usually crashes)..

Washington MRM 02:13 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
What are views of where GBP/US$ will be when the BOJ announces later? I think that hawkish BOJ will force GBP/US$ down to mid-1.94's (due to sell off in GBP/JPY). Just trying to figure out where it might be at that time.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:13 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is dissipating its upward momentum when it is trading below 1.9563.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:55 GMT February 20, 2007
GBP/USD : the current expected trading range is 1.9441 - 1.9519 - 1.9563.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:12 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still valid in Asian session :

Hong Kong Qindex 15:10 GMT February 20, 2007
EUR/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below the range 1.3149 - 1.3235 - 1.3288.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The following is still valid in Asian session :

Hong Kong Qindex 15:17 GMT February 20, 2007
EUR/GBP : the market momentum is strong when it is trading above the range 0.6698 - 0.6713 - 0.6717.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:08 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : We have to wait for the market. It may tackle the barrier at 236.37 // 238.55* or challenge the supporting level at 229.80 - 229.85.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:05 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The following is still valid :

Hong Kong Qindex 15:08 GMT February 20, 2007
USD/CHF : The market momentum is strong if it can trade above the range 1.2305 - 1.2347 - 1.2381.

USA BAY 02:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, if you have the time could you please share your view for usd/chf and gbp/jpy. My weekly chart shows 225. Thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 01:56 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Spot Gold : My bias is on the downside when the market reversed its direction in front of 672.5*. The next targeting barrier is 649.6 after penetrating through 657.2. A projected supporting level is expected at 642.0*.

USA BAY 01:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
MAL SEMIJI,

I understand your restlessness when holding a trade you are not so sure of. Don't be dishearten by what others say just hold and have a stop loss. I think Dr Q may have answered your question. GT/GL

UK Alex 01:37 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
BOJ policy board meets on rates; outcome unclear

Hong Kong Qindex 01:36 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the following is still valid in Asian session :

Hong Kong Qindex 14:58 GMT February 20, 2007
USD/CAD : The market has a potential to trade in the range of 1.1684 - 1.1732.

CT PT 01:28 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oilman, I respect your views... what's your opinion on USD/CHF?

Sydney 01:21 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   

LDN 01:13 GMT February 21, 2007

Give it a break Martin.

Forum Rules

Personal attacks on individual participants are not permitted. Readers are encouraged to respect the ideas of those who have been kind enough to contribute to the forum and treat one another with civility and respect.

mal semiji 01:19 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
just waiting ,,,,thanks

Cannes Oil man 01:15 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
If you are worried within a 10 pips move, forex market might not be a good place for you..Or your leverage is too high, or the stress associated with FX trading too much for you.

Not even 10 pips as BID is 97 atm..

LDN 01:13 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Denver Comic 01:03 GMT February 21, 2007
Try comedy hour in Cannes, where oil slick has top billing.

mal semiji 01:12 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man


i shorted at 1.1692,, so worried now

USA BAY 01:07 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

What is your view on cad/jpy regardless of boj. TIA

Denver Comic 01:03 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
So far the suggestions have been brilliant on this forum...

Anyone have any other fav sites for such info?

Thanks

Cannes Oil man 01:02 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
mal semiji 00:41 GMT February 21, 2007

I shorted not long ago, 1.1705, and so far looking good.

mal semiji 00:50 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
anyone know the lowest usdcad today ,, thanks

Washington MRM 00:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
That is, sometimes announcing earlier or later than they were supposed to.

Washington MRM 00:46 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
London C

I think 5:00 GMT is what is expected, but I seem to remember them not always being at that time - someone please correct me if I am wrong.

mal semiji 00:41 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
hello cannes usdcad still not down..

London C 00:33 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Just to clarify ...BOJ rate decision is at 5 GMT ??? TIA

pd cumino 00:18 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 00:17 GMT February 21, 2007
Now is 67%

Cannes Oil man 00:17 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Lack of consensus?

GVI john 10:19 GMT February 20, 2007
Credit Suisse's research showed that market participants currently see a 64% chance of the BOJ tightening credit on Wednesday, higher than 61% noted the previous day.

pd cumino 00:16 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 00:11 GMT February 21, 2007
"...given the lack of consensus in the market beforehand..."

????

Edmonton Rob 00:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 00:06 GMT February 21, 2007

If 1.9530 is likely, and the asian market might push it into 1.9630 then thats 100 pips in a day or so, thats pretty good return if you ask me

Philadelphia Caba 00:11 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
A Yen Pop Would Soon Stop
There's the whiff of a BOJ rate hike in the air today but that shouldn't leave other currencies on the nose against the yen.
Even though the yen would no doubt spike on a rate rise, given the lack of consensus in the market beforehand, this wouldn't last long. What was said last month remains true: A hike would be symbolic given the BOJ is unlikely to be able to raise rates much before Japanese upper house elections, due around July 22. Some say it may not have much of a chance to hike before September.
Sure, there are plenty of policy meetings before July but the central bank wouldn't want to be accused of influencing politics, no matter how much politicians have meddled in its own decisions. It could be "one and done" for now.
Hiking to 0.5% wouldn't be much different from standing pat at 0.25%. NZ rates are at 7.25% (and set to rise in March), Australian rates at 6.25%, eurozone rates 3.5% (and set to rise in March), the Fed at 5.25% and the UK at 5.25% - 0.5% is a drop in the ocean in comparison.
Whether it's 0.25% or 0.5% is a matter of semantics for the yen; at the margin a steady hand on rates would be negative for it. There's no reason even if the BOJ hiked to bail out of yen-funded carry trades though, as this column has noted before, there may be some brief support for the yen in the near term on fiscal year-end repatriation of funds to Japan.
Yen crosses may stay strong, as opposed to the USD/JPY outright; the dollar faces its own headwinds but it can fall without taking carry trades with it, especially if risk aversion doesn't rise.
While March rate hikes by the RBNZ and ECB are somewhat baked in there is room for further gains in the NZD/JPY and EUR/JPY. There is leeway for the won against the yen (though the BOK has been fussing about that cross), along with other Asian names against the yen.
What the RBA governor says in his testimony today will have some bearing on how AUD/JPY responds to the BOJ; he may be less hawkish, which would leave AUD/JPY solid but trailing NZD/JPY. Another laggard may be the GBP/JPY given Bank of England comments of late suggest the surprise rate hike of January won't be repeated soon.
The Swiss franc may remain a funding currency of choice along with the yen, which means EUR/CHF could stay bid.
BOJ governor Toshihiko Fukui shouldn't rattle the crosses; even if there is a hike he's unlikely to follow that with hawkish commentary. The BOJ has made it clear rates will be normalized gradually. And don't expect him to say much about carry trades, either. The Japanese got what they wanted from the G7 statement and if asked he may just point to that as reflecting Japan's position.
Traders may do well to put any knee-jerk pop in the yen to one side; in the end it'll be status quo for the currency, whatever the BOJ may bring.

-By Rosalind Mathieson, Dow Jones Newswires

Cannes Oil man 00:06 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 23:58 GMT February 20, 2007

Not at all , Asians know where value is :=) , might push it towards 9630.
GBPJPY going to 240 (see previous posts) , will drive the cable furiously to the upside...We will see in a few hours:
JA- BOJ Policy Decision
09:30 UK- Feb BOE Minutes


I long'd CAD , meanwhile...(And still have NZD$ , paying fat rolls daily from 67).

Perth 00:03 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
RBA Governor " A rise is more likely than a fall " in rates...

Syd 00:01 GMT February 21, 2007 Reply   
Initial run of selling in Australian dollar on heels of beginning of RBA governor Stevens' testimony subsides, and AUD/USD recovers to session high 0.7876 from initial dip to 0.7853. Market initially opts to sell AUD as it sees no reference to tightening bias in governor's prepared remarks; however, Q&A session helps flesh out policy outlook, says John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at National Australia Bank. "I would characterise it as a weak tightening bias. They seem reasonably comfortable on the inflation outlook and you would have to see quite a bit go wrong for them to raise rates again."

 




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