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Forex Forum Archive for 02/22/2007

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Edmonton Rob 23:58 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
So anyone whos short the USD/JPY whats your target to cover the short?

Dallas GEP 23:52 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Took eur/gbp long from 6706 bid...target 6726..this is decent support for eur/gbp here

Charlotte TH 23:52 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:49 GMT February 22, 2007
238.60,98.60,121.90.

London AH 23:52 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USD;JPY
stop 121.48

Edmonton Rob 23:50 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
London AH 23:49 GMT February 22, 2007
15min chart
===========================
For what currency i mean

USA BAY 23:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
CHARLOTTE TH,

You have been shorting all these jpy pairs, just out of curiousity do you have a stop loss?

London AH 23:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
15min chart

SINGAPORE GFX 23:47 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, could you please share your thoughts on chf/jpy, it is at its highest point in one year. tia

Edmonton Rob 23:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
London AH 23:43 GMT February 22, 2007
Dubbletop is an ominous configuration in this chart...
Ive shorted!

===================

Which chart?

Hong Kong Qindex 23:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 14:33 GMT February 22, 2007
EUR/JPY : 159.00* is a good resistant point for the month of February. The next target is 161.17 if the market can overcome the projected resistance at 160.08.

Hong Kong Qindex 23:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The following is still valid :

Hong Kong Qindex 14:43 GMT February 22, 2007
GBP/JPY : The market is working on the barrier at 236.34 // 236.71. If the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the projected resistance at 237.08, the next target is 237.82 // 238.37.

Charlotte TH 23:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
short chfjpy 98.08.

Gold Coast fxi 23:43 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:20 GMT
Cable - The candle is an "outside day".
do a Google search - gt

London AH 23:43 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Dubbletop is an ominous configuration in this chart...
Ive shorted!

Charlotte TH 23:42 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
short usdjpy 121.49.

earlier short at 120.30 area.

Edmonton Rob 23:41 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:38 GMT February 22, 2007

Whats your target oilman?

Hong Kong Qindex 23:39 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The market has potential to tackle the barrier at 121.91 // 122.10 if it can overcome the projected resistance at 121.65. The barrier at 121.33 // 121.40 becomes a projected supporting barrier.

Cannes Oil man 23:38 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 23:32 GMT February 22, 2007
Is anyone short USD/JPY here?

---
Yes..121.6 look below.

Edmonton Rob 23:37 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
London AH 23:34 GMT February 22, 2007

on the daily chart looks like it ran outta steam

London AH 23:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Why short USD/JPY?

Sydney ACC 23:32 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
As inflation continues to be a matter of concern to the Fed there is an increasing problem occurring in low grade home loans. Last month HSBC was forced to issue its first profit warning in teh Company's history as a consequence of defaults in its US susbsidiary that caters to this market. As defaults increase owing to depressed property markets the Fed may need to consider this market if it becomes necessary to increase interest rates later this year.

Here is an article published by the NY Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/22/business/22lend.html

Edmonton Rob 23:32 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Is anyone short USD/JPY here?

Edmonton Rob 23:24 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   

UK Alex 23:20 GMT February 22, 2007

they all seem to have long wicks on the daily chart

UK Alex 23:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Regarding cable, there is a bullish engulfing candle on the daily chart, but with very long wicks. Not sure what the significance of that is. I expect someone can probably tell me.

Cannes Oil man 23:15 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:14 GMT February 22, 2007

it's called working.

Cannes Oil man 23:14 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
We had 46 and 26 last night and today as high's , we should test them, however it could just run higher too , ed.

But tom is friday, normally market will wait for the big move in US session..Doesn't have too though.

NY Ed 23:14 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man....Do you do this as a FullTime thing...if you don't me asking

Cannes Oil man 23:08 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
I haven't looked at a chart for a few days(since someone asked me about GBPAUD)..Don't need too really..I only look at weeklies and dailies anyways , rest of time looking at the numbers is enough :)

NY Ed 23:06 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man....but you still are convinced about a cabel drop

Syd 23:05 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Italy PM Prodi's resignation after just 9 months in power, after his center-left coalition suffered Senate defeat on foreign policy vote which effectively turned into a vote of confidence, unlikely to have direct effect on ECB policy and thus little impact on EUR, say analysts; "recent history suggests that political uncertainty has a limited if any FX impact and if anything comments...from the ECB's Papademos that rates remain 'relatively low' should support EUR," says RBC Capital Markets. Still, analysts note shake-up in Italy could threaten reform hopes in eurozone's 3rd-largest economy, which could hurt EUR down the line.

Cannes Oil man 23:05 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:02 GMT February 22, 2007

No , that's another sin :) , that leads to huge losses...If i think the gbp$ is going up , shorting it for 30 pips to go long is a no no.

Cannes Oil man 23:03 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
The concrete reason is there, all u need is to read..

EURUSD, GBPUSD=?Egbp?
EURJPY , GBPJPY , $Y..

NY Ed 23:02 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man... did you ever go Short Cable or still waiting for the 9515+/- to go long ???

LKWD JJ 23:01 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
$Y euroyen cableyen all showing NEGATIVE divergence BOTH MACD AND RSI.wont stay that way for long though.

Cannes Oil man 23:00 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
I m also short 121.60 now..And 2nd EY 159.57+48...Looking for 90 pips on the 3 combined.
Gl gt

USA BAY 22:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

There is no concrete reason in your answer, but thanks anyway

Cannes Oil man 22:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading one ccy for another is one of the 12 FX sins.
Even though i sometimes do it..Just like for the last 3 weeks , i was looking at my correlation , and my nzd$ wasn't moving, then finally it made a strong up...So GBPJPY CAN go to 240 and EY flat or mildly down.

Cannes Oil man 22:56 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GBPJPY , $/Y , EURJPY are 3 different pairs, even though they normally move in tandem , they do not have too.

Aka this week EURJPY went down only 150 or so pips...Meanwhile GBPJPY went down LOTS more...
EUR$ can go up , and GBP$ down...or vice versa...(EUR$ flat , while GBP$ a strong up , like when GB did the surprise hike, and last week E$ UP 180 pips, GBP$ down..)..

Trading one ccy for another can lead to losses.

NY Ed 22:55 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
anyone have anything on Cable, it's laying down

Gen dk 22:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 22:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 22:27 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
So here again it is, time to consider the CD- Oil minus one trade.

the 25th of the month is Oil Day. Fri the 23rd is the closest this month gets to minus 1. So the rules (mine) sell morning-US session- spike in USD/CAD. Take profit on the 25th ( 26th this month) on partial to give a free trade - stop/loss at BE on remaining.

As one who once posted here would say: Let's see!

Added plus: from Briefing.com
03:27 ET U.S Energy Secretary Bodman says U.S. will begin buying oil to fill SPR in April

GVI john 22:22 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Fri, Feb 23, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan CSPI
23:50 JA- Dec All Sector Activity Index
09:30 UK- 4Q06 GDP (2nd release)
09:30 GE- Feb IFO

Mon, Feb 26, 2007
05:00 JA- BOJ Minutes (Jan 17-18)
GE- Feb CPI (this week)
07:00 GE- Mar Gfk
15:00 EZ- Jan M3

Tue, Feb 27, 2007
07:00 GE- Jan CPI
09:00 EZ- Jan M3 (Money Supply)
11:00 UK- Feb CBI Distributive Trade Survey
13:30 US- Jan Durable Goods
15:00 US- Feb Cons Conf
15:00 US- Jan Existing Home Sales

Wed, Feb 28, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan Prelim IP
23:50 JA- Jan Retail Sales
09:00 EZ- Jan M3
09:30 GE- Jan Employment
10:00 EZ- Jan unemplyment
10:00 EZ- Feb Bus/Cons Confidence
10:00 EZ- Jan HICP
CHART

10:30 CH- Feb KOF Indicator
13:30 US- 4Q06 GDP
15:00 US- Fed Chicago PMI
15:00 US- Jan New Home Sales
15:30 US- Weekly Energy

Thu, Mar 1, 2007
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Capex
10:00 EZ- Feb HICP (flash)
CHART

10:00 EZ/GE/UK- Feb mfg PMI
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
13:30 US- Jan PI
CHART
13:30 CA- 4Q06 BOP
13:30 CA- Jan IPPI
15:30 US- Natural Gas
15:00 US- Jan Construction Spending
15:00 US- Feb Mfg ISM

NY Ed 22:18 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi... hey bro, I am not familar with short cut langauge

London Gooner 22:18 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 21:09 GMT February 22, 2007
-
If 236.60 can support there is potential for 239.70. I prefer to see if we do get a pullback that holds first.
I would be very carefull though because looking at USDJPY historical vols there is enough conditions in place for a large move very soon.
The weekly hist vols are so low, the dailies have picked up since 122 level. Last time we had these conditions after a durable uptrend the market took a deep correction. That makes me think that it may be wiser not to touch gbpjpy - prefer the eurjpy shape for now.

GVI john 22:17 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

        EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3126	121.54	1.2384	1.9564	1.1609	0.7890	159.53
High	1.3144	121.64	1.2437	1.9601	1.1632	0.7918	159.62
Low	1.3081	120.84	1.2376	1.9463	1.1595	0.7878	158.56
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/22/2007					
5 day 	1.3138	120.24	1.2358	1.9532	1.1636	0.7883	158.00
10 day	1.3095	120.59	1.2403	1.9522	1.1670	0.7837	157.92
20 day 	1.3037	120.78	1.2437	1.9579	1.1743	0.7796	157.47
50 day 	1.3043	120.13	1.2379	1.9585	1.1710	0.7827	156.68
100 day	1.2961	118.84	1.2371	1.9357	1.1543	0.7769	154.04
200 day	1.2845	117.28	1.2362	1.9019	1.1366	0.7647	150.67

NY Ed 22:17 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
warsaw TOMi ... what?

NY Ed 22:14 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
To me it looks like there could be some downward movement, to about 9550 +/-, but longer term I think we go into the weekend with a 9600 +

warsaw TOMi 22:12 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Ed, u short cable? where? thought you bought the soiled for what itis worf and keep to sell for what it thinks itis worf..

Edmonton Rob 22:11 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Anyone think that buying the Cable now is a smart move? ride it up a little?

NY Ed 22:08 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Just when I'm SHORT

NY Ed 22:07 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cable, anyone know a reason for it's poise back UP

Washington MRM 22:07 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 21:57 GMT

I think very likely that we see 1.9615. It has failed to push below 1.9400 on three occassions (2/13, 2/19, 2/22) with each time registering higher lows - and higher highs along with it. I am showing little in resistance from 1.9615 to 1.9700, but at very least should break up to 1.9680. Will watch from there to see momentum. Think initial break could happen during Asia with more at 2:00 am EST.

Edmonton Rob 21:57 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 21:30 GMT February 22, 2007

Thanks for your input on this MRM, i pulled outta my short position too, took some profit and im gonna wait it out in the asian session. Buying at 1.9615 to 1.9700 would be a nice little run up, how likely do you think that will be ?

USA BAY 21:52 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

No problem. I had the same doubt in my mind and if gbp/jpy moves to 240, I feel eur/jpy will move to 160. I feel more certain of e/j moving to 160 than gbp/jpy moving to 240.

LKWD JJ 21:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
usa bay :no t at all sorry for the confusion
======================
should be "not at all, sorry for the confusion"

Charlotte TH 21:48 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
usdcad can rise to 1.1640 in asian session from where it can go to 1.1700.

LKWD JJ 21:41 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
no t at all sorry for the confusion. i figured geniuses think alike. so i asked what else are you thinking about regarding mkt, sorry. bashing and bashful are different anyway. nothing wrong with hope he answers i think it has to do with eur vs usd and gbp vs usd, but im not that familiar with the hows and whys

Charlotte TH 21:30 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
small short added to previous gbpjpy shorts at 236 and lower 237 at 237.72 now.

Washington MRM 21:30 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Out of GBP shorts. Japan has had good bid for GBP over the past week, so I don't want to be short going into that.

I think that tonight is the night GBP/US$ will move to 1.9700 after the large move today in US. Will look to enter long position at/around 1.9615 depending on price action. I think it will be a quick move up to 1.9700 from there.

USA BAY 21:23 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

Whats wrong with 'hope he answers", I think you are the one who is in the bashing mood.

LKWD JJ 21:19 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
what else are you thinking usa bay? dont be bashful he'll answer sooner than later.

Bris rc 21:18 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Looking at a monthly chart, the debate on usdjpy is a false debate.....imvho

Livingston nh 21:13 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GDP/JPY has been in a downtrend since it moved above 240 - no reason for a re test

USA BAY 21:11 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

Had the same question on my mind. hope he answers

LKWD JJ 21:09 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
OIL MAN if you feel gbpjpy will hit 240 why wont eurjpy take out 160? is it possible for one to happen without the other?

SINGAPORE GFX 21:09 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
LONDON GOONER,

Your view on gbp/jpy please. thanks

London Gooner 20:15 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY -

Sharing similar view to 'Cannes Oil man 19:11 GMT February 22, 2007'
A potential market exhaustion may be occuring. The timing for entry may be good now, always hard to judge accurately but using 100 pips s/l should offer good r/r to this attempt.
The risk of yen snapping back vs euro has increased while forming a daily divergence with bearish technical pattern.

Toronto MRC 19:53 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2007/02/22/afx3453239.html

ifo survey forecast

UK Alex 19:52 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Net portfolio outflow from Canadian securities markets totaled C$50.1 billion in '06, but the FX impact of portfolio flows on USD/CAD has waned, said a report from RBC Capital Markets. One reason is the growth of the market for "Maple" bonds, or foreign-issued, CAD-denominated bonds, it said. "As Maples are CAD-denominated, the FX impact of Canadian purchases of these foreign-issued bonds is minimal," it said. "Furthermore, the currency risk associated with Maple bonds is hedged by the CAD borrowers." Also, the rally in base metals supported foreign investor net purchases of Canadian equities, helping swamp the FX impact of heavy Canadian portfolio outflow, RBC said.

RIC fxq 19:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
4cast re. today's action:

* 22 Feb 07: 18:56(LDN) - FX NOW! USD/JPY vs SW, 1 Mon Vols Flows-JPY slide is not scaring anyone other than officials

JPY problems are not getting smaller. JPY is the currency the market refuses to buy. As a funding currency it cannot be beaten and the recent limp handed BoJ rate hike to 0.5% is hardly warning the markets that anything fundamental will spoil the "carry trade" frenzy that is currently in dominating many areas of the FX and fixed income markets. Warnings from officials regarding the potential risks of "carry trades" seems to be doing nothing but advertising the cheap funding available from JPY and to a lesser extent CHF. Needless to say this is not what officials want to see. While JPY continues to slide, the market does not seem to put much store in the fear mongers scenarios if the stable to declining cost of options is any gauge. If risk perception were to increase, there is a good chance the first place it would show up is in the options market. M.B.

* 22 Feb 07: 18:24(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF Flows - EUR mixed vs funding currencies, but new highs are likely

EUR has had a mixed day vs the "carry/funding" currencies. The afternoon purge of the USD in reaction to the news that Iran was not behaving as the UN would like, gave CHF a bid and also helped crude oil climb through USD60 pb. EUR/CHF was making a move toward 1.6300, where options interests are said to be defending the strike. The international news gave the sellers more confidence and the buyers backed away. EUR/JPY was another story. The USD purge, the international situation and even the escalating official concerns voiced regarding "carry trades" failed to have noticeable impact on the cross that is closing in on 160.00. M.B.

Edmonton Rob 19:29 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Oil man, do you think the cable at 1.9510 is likely today or over night?

Cannes Oil man 19:11 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Lugano:
Don't think it goes to 160...too much people talking about 160..It either goes to 164 (rushing 160 to 163) , or dips from here...from gvi a few mnts ago, so i think it doesn't hit 160..At least for a few days..:

Cannes Oil man 18:50 GMT February 22, 2007
Shorted EY 159.48 , 27 SL's.

lugano fc 19:00 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   


oil my friend. yesterday and also today in newpapers written snb is rising rates in next meeting. they will rise again.....but
, as you know, i am very very bearish on the chf...(still have my long term target 2-5 years at 1.90/2.00 this is from a swiss living man the REAL value of the chf....i also think that our politician/snb/economy will be happy about it.
no more problem about price differences from eu and chf
salary almost same
we are exporters so...chf down makes happy our economy
import is based much in usd and there is no problem as the usd will be also cheaper (less cheaper then european ;-) )
so everybody happy...only for many go to rimini for holiday will be expensive ;-)

now back to the market...also today pips on short usd have hedged eurjpy short....at least a portion....i still wait when 160, if seen, will appear on the screens (that i think is what the market want to see, and most of the time, as you know, could be that just before a big pill, indigesting pill, is waiting...or just some pips over 160. the carry trade have a return of 20% now for some....commodities are running...also rich jap cannot afford to pay 50%more (commodities plus devaluation) the petrol every 6months...

CT Cris 18:55 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH

gbp.usd should decline till 19540-30 before it rise up again.

Mtl JP 18:55 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
manchester 18:29 / one could think the blip on the radar would glow bigger at eur/yen 160.

UK Alex 18:54 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 18:49 GMT February 22, 2007
Too right. I would want to be certain inflation had peaked before making assertions like that. But the guy did sound quite confident, I guess that's because he is a stocks guru.

RIC fxq 18:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 18:47 GMT

no, absolutely not. when the more dovish fed voters like Yellen are saying they are concerned i have to go with them.

UK Alex 18:47 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 18:29 GMT February 22, 2007
And you believe them?!

CT Cris 18:47 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   

CT Cris 18:12 GMT February 21, 2007
usd.jpy is heading twd 121.51

=====
after reached the target still has momentum to go up.

Cannes Oil man 18:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Less than 250 pips to go in GBPJPY for my 240 target...Start of week everyone was saying Oil man is off base , but again, market went back to shorting yen rushing the upside in every pair.
Why would big players stop shorting yen , because there's a few french or german unhappy ?..
Just like SNB is screaming every week about CHF is not following fundamentals, market keeps selling it..If they want it to stop , they can raise their rates...IF they can't raise rates cause their economy sucks , then it's quite natural market shorts their currencies.

CT Cris 18:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:33 GMT February 22, 2007
USA BAY 06:21

CT Cris 18:29 GMT February 21, 2007
=====
gbp.jpy filled in sideways level 236.35 and 236.05.
continue buy if breaks 236.35 continue sell if breaks 236.05
mostly the break will be to up.
======
break confirmed to up.
======
still has momentum to go up.



Gen dk 18:32 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NYC 18:31 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
eurusd is stioll down on the day so firmer usdjpy has accounted for almost all the move up in eurjpy

RIC fxq 18:29 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 18:13 GMT

nothing new or unique there, virtually every CNBC forex talking head interviewed and esp Nick Hastings of DJ newswires talks the same talk daily and has for weeks if not months.

Cannes Oil man 18:29 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 21:58 GMT February 21, 2007
Cool GBP:NZD ..Will place a limit to get a call when spot around 2.7580...Strike 2.78 , 2 month , KO 2.88.
--
yummy

manchester 18:29 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
how far can eur/jpy keep going higher. anyone have any trading ranges? interesting to see $/yen not push up to test 122 again yet GBP & EUR have both advanced nicely.

Edmonton Rob 18:25 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 18:22 GMT February 22, 2007

So you think the 1.9510 range is likely again?

Cannes Oil man 18:22 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
For the moment i'm only long E$ , Short $/Y , Long NZD$..I'll rebuy GBP around 1.9510/30 later on.
Hopefully it doesn't do like GBPJPY which actually ran 200 pips without coming to my limit 235.20 after i took TP.
but i'll buy the break in case...

Time frame a few more days, as GBP$ has finished bottoming, doing higher highs , lower bottom's , so i expect a nice push from here.

Edmonton Rob 18:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 18:16 GMT February 22, 2007

Would you be going long here? What kinda time frame are you looking at for 1.97?

Cannes Oil man 18:16 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
My target for GBP , or Euro haven't changed (1.97--2.01 ; 1.34).

Patra alex 18:15 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 18:08 GMT February 22, 2007

At what level are u going to buy the cable again? Also, can I have your views on USD/CAD?

Thanks in advance.

warsaw TOMi 18:13 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Oilman,what upside target do you have in mind with €/$ reaching 3212 for cable pls? tx

UK Alex 18:13 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Just hearing some chatter which says Fed is on far a cut this fall. Make of it what you will.

Cannes Oil man 18:08 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Taking the 94 pips here on GBP$ , will buy again lower.
gl gt

Sydney ACC 18:02 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Between 15:30 and 16:30 GMT over the last few days GBP/USD has appreciated, today's move being the most significant.
19 Feb 1.9460 to 1.9495
20Feb 1.9555 to 1.9542
21 Feb 1.9513 to 1.9534
22 Feb 1.9521 to 1.9583
Three days out of four its moved up, similar pattern last week, suggests significant buying of sterling going into the 16:00 fix.

warsaw TOMi 17:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
target bfor €/$ 3212.

warsaw TOMi 17:58 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
to dr unken katt 17:54 GMT February 22, 2007

no kacik,I am long from 9466,77 88 96,profit zone 9600-10
have long signal now since 10 am this morning on €uro,so hold on to longzz at mom..

Toronto YV 17:55 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:32 , http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0092224.html

to dr unken katt 17:54 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
warsaw Tomik

r u sellling dat cable rally ??? good opportunity

PAR 17:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Merkel and Chirac could mention forex tomorrow while talking job cuts . Be carefull. Have a nice evening.

Edmonton Rob 17:42 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 17:36 GMT February 22, 2007

Whats your target for your short?

USA BAY 17:40 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD got the push from gbp/jpy. we may have seen the high for today unless gbp/jpy makes a run again to above 238.00

Washington MRM 17:36 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Went short GBP/US$ at 1.9581. I see no reason for the range to not to persist in the near term.

Edmonton Rob 17:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:31 GMT February 22, 2007
Doesnt looks like its able to hold currently

USA BAY 17:32 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
When is the rbnz rate decision pls. ty

HK Kevin 17:31 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens 14:11 GMT, thank you Master.

USA BAY 17:31 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EDMONTON ROB,

I dont think it has been consistently broken 1.9592, if it doesnt look for 1.9539 and 1.9524

Makassar Alimin 17:28 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
trading without proper stop loss is suicidal, hoping is not trading

we are still ranging but who knows if this is the start of a trend for many months to come...better be safe than sorry

Edmonton Rob 17:24 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:22 GMT February 22, 2007
If cable breaks 1.9592, it will go to 1.9626.

=================================

Well its broken it
What kinda time frame?

London C 17:24 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Syd 17:06 GMT February 22, 2007

Bet bush has other plans!

USA BAY 17:22 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
If cable breaks 1.9592, it will go to 1.9626.

manchester 17:22 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
im short from 9580, not too worried yet as it will at least pull pack to that level......i hope

london phil 17:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
did you forget your stops rob

Vancouver PINK 17:19 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
ha i have no margin to hold my cable short anymore...

Edmonton Rob 17:15 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
My god the cable is relentless
are we gonna see any relief here as a short holder?

Syd 17:06 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Rice says US has no intention of attacking Iran
BERLIN (AFX) - The United States has no intention of attacking Iran, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said in a television interview.
"Let me just say here publicly, the United States has no desire for confrontation with Iran. None," Rice told CNN from Berlin, where she is attending talks.

"The option that we have is to continue to try to convince those who are reasonable in Iran that the course they are on is destructive," Rice said.

UK Alex 17:00 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Just rumours. Let the charts speak for themselves. I think they lend credence to PAR's earlier theory.

Van jv 17:00 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
hk ab ///
nzd waiting for RBNZ. Time please-
local GVI calendar back in 2006

Charlotte TH 16:57 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
that was a trademark usdcad long.

madrid mm 16:57 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
there was a rumor that terror alert was going to be raised in the US

melbourne DC 16:56 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:50 GMT February 22, 2007
thx. off to bed now . g'nite .

hk ab 16:54 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
nzd clearly waiting for RBNZ.

hk ab 16:51 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
gbp 1.9582 20 dma, a close above new bullish sign.

madrid mm 16:50 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
melbourne dc

gbp could be considered as a safe haven currency with high yields

Edmonton Rob 16:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed

Id like to see another 30 pips down at some point of the next 24hrs so i can sleep easy
Maybe 60 but i dont know how realistic that is

Charlotte TH 16:48 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
long usdcad 1.1611.

NYC Ed 16:47 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob ...I am with you, you only got "nailed" I got "hammered", I think we will see some momentum here, I hope, I am out , this market has me nervous...

madrid mm 16:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Maybe some traders were so bored that they started a rumor to shake this market.....

Edmonton Rob 16:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Got nailed on the cable today, was short when it rallied. Anyone think its gonna give up some of these gains in the near future?

melbourne DC 16:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
if anyone kind enuf .. any reason why iran news tonite is pound supportive? tia

melbourne DC 16:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
ADP revises its Jan Employment Report to +126K from +152K

note that after rally up .. dip below 1.31 rejected twice feb 16, and 22(?).

terror alert not likely to be real.

above just observation

NYC Ed 16:41 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
No, why something going on Paris

PAR 16:41 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Any rumors of terrorist attack in New York ?

madrid mm 16:39 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe's biggest bank by market value, said Bobby Mehta stepped down as head of the North American unit after it posted higher-than-estimated losses on U.S. home loans.
HSBC earlier this month increased the amount set aside for U.S. bad loans to about $10.6 billion, 20 percent more than analysts had estimated, as the American mortgage business deteriorated. The company said Feb. 7 it was shaking up management and tightening lending policies.

Edmonton Rob 16:32 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 16:24 GMT February 22, 2007

When do you anticipate to see 1.92 on the Cable? its looking pretty strong lately

manchester 16:29 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
good idea to short cable at this level with tight stop?

Athens MK 16:24 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
=========================================
Athens MK 11:37 GMT February 22, 2007
Hmmm..... new buy strategy just came in on GBP/$ - Since the previous one had hit the 1.9469 we were waiting for a new outlook from today.....

Buy level:

1) 1.9490
2) 1.9440
3) 1.9390
4) 1.9350

Limit 1.9560 - Partial positions, allow the rest to run with trailing stops etc...

Stop/Reverse: 1.9220 - Trend level
========================================

Ok our main target has touched and partial positions have closed.... Brought the rest up to our B/E levels with next target in the 1.9650-70 area if it makes it...... If that level is not broken then we are looking for a much deeper correction down to the 1.92 area in the swing cycle as mentioned earlier...

Edmonton Rob 16:23 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:20 GMT February 22, 2007
Edmonton Rob 16:19 GMT February 22, 2007
Dollar is taking a slight hit and GBP is bid on the crosses.

===========================

Do you think the cable is gonna give up some of these wild gains?

UK Alex 16:23 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 16:07 GMT February 22, 2007
True to say it's a symbiotic relationship. I wonder what China has up its sleeve next.

PAR 16:22 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Add to long EUR on break of 1.3150 . Increase target to 1.3400 . Raise stop to 1.3099 .

Gen dk 16:21 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 16:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 16:19 GMT February 22, 2007
Dollar is taking a slight hit and GBP is bid on the crosses.

Washington MRM 16:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Closed long GBP from earlier at 1.9564.

Charlotte TH 16:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
jpl,read that 1.9541.

Vancouver PINK 16:19 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
my gbp/usd short took a beating...

Edmonton Rob 16:19 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
wow whats moving the Cable like this?

Mtl JP 16:16 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 16:14.. also cable small 1.9641 - on what platform ?

Charlotte TH 16:14 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
sold gbpjpy 237.10 also cable small 1.9641.

Livingston nh 16:07 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Alex - the world changed in 1971 - the gold/widget convertibility folks nedd to take a look around // a structural deficit - absent US China has a structural deficit - cut back on USD flow and whose OX gets gored?

moscow mike 16:05 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 16:02
Vodka men likes to long on 150 break LOL

best regards

The Netherlands Purk 16:02 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Doesnt the e/j look good when you decide to long it at 157ish...

UK Alex 16:01 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 15:38 GMT February 22, 2007
So are structural deficits desirable? Doesn't it leave a nation vulnerable to an attack on its currency? What would happen if the dollar was no longer the reserve currency of the world?

London The Holy Grail 16:00 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Flattened usdcad short onto growing crude inventories. Done and bye.

PAR 15:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Crude oil becoming expensive in Japan at 60.50 with USDJPY at 121.50.

madrid mm 15:56 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
some rules to follow IMHO
PLAN YOUR TRADE AND TRADE YOUR PLAN
FOCUS ON CAPITAL PRESERVATION
KNOW WHEN TO CUT LOSS
TAKE PROFIT WHEN THE TRADE IS GOOD
BE EMOTIONLESS ----- I know, it can be difficult sometimes lol
WHEN IN DOUBT, STAY OUT
DO NOT OVERTRADE.

And more important HAVE FUN and don t forget TOMORROW IS ANOTHER DAY 8-)

Vancouver PINK 15:53 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Any specific target for EUR/GBP?

Edmonton Rob 15:52 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Anyone shorting rallys on the cable?

melbourne DC 15:47 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
jpy .. previous supports turning resistance ?

NYC Ed 15:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
btw LONG @ 9520

melbourne DC 15:43 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Vancouver PINK 15:34 GMT February 22, 2007
eurgbp 4hr upchannel .

NYC Ed 15:41 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Oilman....tell me I'm off....I am LONG Cable I like it's bounce, I like that USD had NO strenght whatsoever, and the weekly is still up....

Gen dk 15:39 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Livingston nh 15:38 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Alex - first - the idea of an imbalance is ridiculous - the situation has been going on for 20 years (the longer an Unsustainable condition persists the more likely it is to be permanent)

second - comparative advantage merely means that a nation chooses to import rather than produce - absolute advantage is different - Japan produces cars outside of Japan because of labor costs not capital cost -- the US imports goods for the same reason

Oil at 10 bbl or yen at 1.10 is not going to matter in the globalized economy

Edmonton Rob 15:37 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Vancouver PINK 15:34 GMT February 22, 2007
Anyone in any interesting trades atm?

==============================

Thinking of maybe shorting the cable if it rallys any more

Vancouver PINK 15:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Anyone in any interesting trades atm?

UK Alex 15:28 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 15:26 GMT February 22, 2007
What do you think it means?

Livingston nh 15:26 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex - "global imbalances" are never going to be cured by FX - everybody believes in globalization but very few understand what that means

UK Alex 15:18 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
China and big oil exporters are crucial to resolving global trade and finances imbalances such as the huge U.S. current account deficit, according to a new NBER working paper by UCLA Professor Sebastian Edwards. Realignment of wealthy countries' economic growth - with Japan and the Euro zone speeding up and the U.S. slowing - would only modestly improve imbalances, the paper says. "Significant exchange rate" changes, a reduction of China's big trade surplus and adjustment by oil exporters are needed to resolve the imbalances, it says.

UK Alex 15:17 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
IAEA is citing Iran for not stopping work on Nuclear programs by the deadline, so its official now.

melbourne DC 15:08 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
london sc 15:02 GMT February 22, 2007
ya .. ifr noticed that too n went long. hmmm ... not good ... i usually use them as contrarian indicator .

london sc 15:02 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
dc, 23680 already gone.

London The Holy Grail 15:00 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Only of small interest left here is watching the usdcad 11580 and lower for bears play still into and the upper levels 11640/80. Dull day today we let alone the yen as It will move unexpectedly as usual.

eurusd lifted some by institutionals, cable yet cabling.

good to get for the pub

melbourne DC 14:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
london sc 14:54 GMT February 22, 2007
as far as i can tell .. analysts bullish on eurjpy n audjpy , looking for usdjpy to test 121.80,122. .. only pair that some look for some softness is gbjpy (but if 236.80 breaks , who knows) .

Vancouver PINK 14:57 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 14:45 GMT February 22, 2007
Anyone Long GBP/USD here?

---I am long here too...wondering if the buying of usd/jpy is keeping it from going up. Any comments on a target for gbp/usd?

melbourne DC 14:55 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
london sc 14:54 GMT February 22, 2007
i dont think there would be many who want to long yen at this point.

london sc 14:54 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
DC, which currency is would you long yen against out of those u say?

melbourne DC 14:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
yen at support across board 121.40 , 95.80, 159.10, 236.80.

Athens 14:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 14:37, a pleasure. I am out now, gfood luck to you and all here.

PAR 14:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
After admitting defeat Trichet and Steinbruck leave the talking to the japanese and just enjoyed carnaval .

Edmonton Rob 14:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Anyone Long GBP/USD here?

EU ZORRO 14:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 14:37 ...let it go to 170 in eurjpy....

EU ZORRO 14:43 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 14:37...jap is an export econom....lol

Hong Kong Qindex 14:43 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The market is working on the barrier at 236.34 // 236.71. If the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the projected resistance at 237.08, the next target is 237.82 // 238.37.

NYC 14:42 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Lugano, I will take the all under on that one, at full margin.

Gen dk 14:39 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lugano fc 14:37 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
interest rate in jap will be 10% end of year with inflation imported by the week currency at 20% if they go on...

Atlanta South 14:37 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens
Ref 14:16/ Tks for that post. That is the very reason I don't
trade long term. Did long term for sometime, but have gone
to a short term model that is doing just fine for me. Over
5 days would be an eternity for me now. Again, thanks for your most informative post. Gt

Hong Kong Qindex 14:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 09:50 GMT February 22, 2007
USD/JPY : the market is consolidating between 120.89 - 121.14 - 121.40.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:33 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : 159.00* is a good resistant point for the month of February. The next target is 161.17 if the market can overcome the projected resistance at 160.08.

lugano fc 14:27 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
jpy....what a f.....g currency....

are the jap just calculate if there more stops to eat then new short b4 deciding if goes to 121.55?? of course if new short are more then stop then they dont go there....

is that open market?

Tor BB 14:22 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Van Gecko, glad to see back. We always appreciate your comments. A few weeks ago you were expecting a pullback on Gold. Now at 680, what do you expect, is it a real break or you thing it will take a dive like copper a couple weeks ago. Thanks.

melbourne DC 14:21 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy looking to break daily downtrend .. buy on break up ? implication for gbpusd? tia

Athens 14:16 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
From last night's Trendways IMC update:

"The risk of intervention (in EUR/JPY) still exists and I believe the CBs will finally have to come in at some point, however the problem (as history often shows) is that in most cases they don't show up until the market really goes berserk short term and for the time being this big long term trend has not seen a short term (e.g. daily) aberration. A big problem in such cases is that the longer one stays in against the move the deeper one may go under water and the stronger the perception (or real expectation) that sooner the CBs will show their hand at the new overextended levels and so on so forth. Personally I hate this kind of game and I stopped playing it a long time ago having decided that it can be fatal; even if just once, it is more than enough. So to conclude, I am not trying to scare anyone but only to remind you of the risks of staying against the model direction at least in terms of risk management. As for the contis and especially the EUR, I am not very enthusiastic, but if the CBs allow more of that carry trade madness we may continue to see EUR/$ feeding on the crosses. This process might not gather enough steam t pull the unit to its ear highs and above, but it could keep it bid and stable. Obviously if it fails to make some upside progress it will finally have market levels getting crossed by the rising model point sooner or later."

Athens 14:11 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 14:53 GMT February 21, not any more EUR/JPY.

hk ab 05:49 GMT February 22, a move above 122.20 (bid) today would negate it. A close aoove 121.25 would also be warning.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:07 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : A projected supporting barrier is positioning at 2.4141 // 2.4178. The moving targeting range is 2.4125 - 2.4326.

Makassar Alimin 13:51 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
cable looks heavy, try some intraday short here 1.9496 with stop 1.9533

Charlotte TH 13:50 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
this may well be the beginning of the range break.

Livingston nh 13:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Par - what bad February employment #s? existing claims declined and are approx to last year's

PAR 13:40 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Think all those bad US economic numbers dont bode well for februarys US unemployment report .

Washington MRM 13:36 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Long small GBP again at 1.9505... still think it should move higher, but will wait to do much until it breaks out of these dreadful ranges.

PAR 13:32 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Jobless not brilliant . Long EUR 1.3110 . Stop 1.3074. Target 1.3200 .

NYC Ed 13:27 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man...Morning !!!

NYC Ed 13:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Opinion.... Does a BETTER than expected Jobs Report have a POSITIVE effect on Cable...anyone..anyone

GVI john 12:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3141	120.87	1.2375	1.9544	1.1605	0.7913	158.87
High	1.3166	121.20	1.2415	1.9590	1.1712	0.7915	159.05
Low	1.3112	119.71	1.2339	1.9489	1.1596	0.7865	157.30
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/21/2007					
5 day 	1.3142	119.77	1.2351	1.9522	1.1639	0.7874	157.42
10 day	1.3086	120.54	1.2411	1.9524	1.1691	0.7830	157.75
20 day 	1.3027	120.76	1.2442	1.9582	1.1753	0.7788	157.32
50 day 	1.3042	120.06	1.2376	1.9584	1.1709	0.7825	156.58
100 day	1.2956	118.82	1.2373	1.9348	1.1540	0.7764	153.94
200 day	1.2844	117.23	1.2361	1.9015	1.1363	0.7645	150.59

Cannes Oil man 12:29 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:08 GMT February 22, 2007

Nothing much can be done, there's 2.5+ billion people entering the market, goods will inflate.

UK Alex 12:25 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Looking at the German GDP figures, I can see a good chance that the rhetoric on Euro/Yen will pick up again.

Athens MK 12:21 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 11:37 GMT February 22, 2007

In continuing with the previous post at 11:37 a second profit area after the 1.9560 is touched could be 1.9650-70 area then we will look for a new sell signal that potentially allow a new low starting at around 1.9340 down to 1.9220(will be better determine when the swing cycle starts down again)

Again the most important level to be touch though is 1.9560 and from there we can start to determine when sell bias is generated....

PAR 12:08 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Can not really follow all those central bankers predicting decline in inflation . Oil above $ 60, Gold $680, Nickel $ 40.000 and risng , Corn , Wheat Soybean and products at new record highs and rising . I see Zimbabwee style hyperinflation if nothing is done .

UK Alex 12:08 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 11:58 GMT February 22, 2007
I think the risk is that stocks could sell off and this will be a double blow to consumer confidence. The structural problems are far worse and this makes the dollar more vulnerable. Of course, there is no ideal outcome. China is another problem if it decides to buy up commodities in a big way as part of its reserve diversification programme.

manchester 12:03 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cable in murky waters. One thing is for sure, that when cable starts to assume a direction again, (guessing its going to be down) its really gonna start moving, so dont wanna miss that!

RIC fxq 11:58 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
"UK Alex 11:24 GMT February 22, 2007
I wonder how well the U.S. economy will fair if we see another interest rate hike?"

... and I wonder how the EU, UK, JPN, et al will fare if as many fx "talking head" strategists suggest their respective central banks go on raising rates on a regular basis.

There seems to be too much thought of ideal scenarios ahead when in fact the GERE GDP release today was not encouraging.

Mtl JP 11:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
London 11:04 / perhaps worth noting: UK Jan M4 money supply up 13.0 pct year-on-year; M4 lending 31.7 bln stg

.... from 12.8% in December.

UK Alex 11:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Euro/GBP could be a good buy, if PAR's put option expires worthless.

HK REVDAX 11:38 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Is there any lonely buyer of Euro/$ at this time? The balance of the herde seems to have gone to the short side.
TIA

Athens MK 11:37 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Hmmm..... new buy strategy just came in on GBP/$ - Since the previous one had hit the 1.9469 we were waiting for a new outlook from today.....

Buy level:

1) 1.9490
2) 1.9440
3) 1.9390
4) 1.9350

Limit 1.9560 - Partial positions, allow the rest to run with trailing stops etc...

Stop/Reverse: 1.9220 - Trend level

Gen dk 11:35 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 11:24 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
I wonder how well the U.S. economy will fair if we see another interest rate hike?

UK Alex 11:18 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
With the four big event risks (G7, coupon payments of US treasury securities, Japan 4Q GDP and BoJ rate hike) for holders of short JPY positions now past there's little reason for JPY to appreciate over coming months, says Barclays Capital. The currency has also lost a prop in that seasonal repatriation ahead of fiscal year-end is no longer evident, due to mark-to market accounting standards introduced in early 2000s. JPY negatives include Japanese importers who are expected to increase long-term hedges (selling JPY) ahead of fiscal year-end, and ongoing structural capital outflows by Japanese individual investors which will continue to weigh. Taking all this in, BarCap expects USD/JPY to hit 125.00 by the end of March. USD/JPY now 121.20.

UK Alex 11:12 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:07 GMT February 22, 2007
Any idea who owns it?

Auckland trotter 11:11 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
With the EUR/USD having hit 1.2080 after the opening of the UK market and short term indications still show up (ref: my previous posts, and bedtime for me). I am placing stops on my trades and wait to see where the price is when I logon, NZ morning when I have to attend to other various duties.

Just like to try and understand the market given the various references that are available. Don’t look to milk the market, just take a cut of it. Play percentages, given the state of the market.

Using leverage can give a compound interest of 10 -20% return on short trades - depending on the state of the market. This is trading up an down in a given session depending on the market.

Take the pips based on my understanding, which I need to learn more. Because, when I get it wrong, I need to know why, as it costs me.

Just a general comment. Any feedback I would look forward to on the help forum.

PAR 11:07 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Some Asian banks by all means defending huge 1.3050 EUR put option expiring tomorrow. Hence limited impact of european political instability .

London 11:04 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Consumer price index inflation is expected to slow sharply during 2007 and could drop significantly below the Bank of England's 2% target later in the year, the BOE's chief economist said Wednesday.

"Inflation is likely to fall back sharply through this year. Just how quickly it will fall back is difficult to predict because so much depends on the pricing decisions of a few energy suppliers," Charlie Bean said in a speech to the business community in Huddersfield.

PAR 11:00 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trichet, Steinbruck and Co always make a lot of noise before G7 meetings and then go in retraite till the next G7 meeting when again they start to make a lot of noise before again going in to hiding and so on and so on ..

Auckland trotter 10:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 10:21 GMT February 22, 2007
I can not comment on your currency pair as I only trade the EUR/USD at present. But appreciate your insight for it’s possible impact across the board.

UK Alex 10:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
‘There is only one boss: the customer, and he (or she) can fire everyone in the company from the chairman down, simply by spending their money somewhere else.’ Sam Walton (1918-1992)

Gen dk 10:28 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lugano fc 10:23 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:20 GMT February 22, 2007


...but if the world is short jpy....nobody wants jpy....how can the nikkey go up?

think that the market is really wrong in some position.....

lugano fc 10:21 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Ref: Auckland trotter 08:54 GMT February 22, 2007


big deficit. chinese and jap investing their usd in commodities instead of bonds. the comic president. everytime we had a deep some strong hands are buying (see the movement and feel it)
no major brake on any pair jpy 122 eur 3040 gbp 93 chf 1.2580

enough to make me buy the deeps


if they brake the resistance...no problem i will short at higher level.

hope enough to make you think a while.
i wait to know your opinion why i should buy the usd

PAR 10:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Kampo sells more yen while Japan records an unexpectedly big trade surplus for january and the Nikkei rallies sharply . As EURJPY hits new all time high shares of japanese exporters rally sharply .

utah AUD/JPY 10:19 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
The AUD/JPY is also a lot of potentials. Recently it had an rsi of 75.02 and is still in a good position to go short. However, I think people should wait until the rsi hits that 70 mark to make a move to short the currency. What do you think? Any suggestions.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:11 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
hope to see $CAD below 1.1590 today b4 the option expiry. GL

Auckland trotter 10:09 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:59 GMT February 22, 2007
I should add that I have learnt a lot from various generous contributors.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:09 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Brisbane tom 09:46 GMT February 22, 2007
Bahrain Bahrain1 08:41 GMT February 22, 2007
What was your criteria(s) to buy Cable at that level ? tia


Hi there...no spl criteria my frnd....
I'm using daily(for support and res.)+hrly(for brk) charts and most important your own feeling. GOOD LUCK.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : After overcoming the projected resistant barrier at 1.2439* // 1.2452, the next targeting level is 1.2473* // 1.2491.

Auckland trotter 09:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Napoli DC 09:44 GMT February 22, 2007
“i love your style”

I post for criticism and comment in an effort to learn and welcome it - I do so because I see the forum is a place to do so.

Glgt

Hong Kong Qindex 09:50 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : the market is consolidate between 120.89 - 121.14 - 121.40.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:47 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : A projected supporting barrier is located at 1.1569 // 1.1585. The market is going to consolidate between 1.1627 - 1.1649 - 1.1670.

Brisbane tom 09:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 08:41 GMT February 22, 2007
What was your criteria(s) to buy Cable at that level ? tia

Hong Kong Qindex 09:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market has potential to tackle the barrier at 0.7847 // 0.7859*.

Napoli DC 09:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trotter,
i love your style

Hong Kong Qindex 09:43 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : A projected supporting barrier is located at 1.6216 // 1.6229*. the market has potential to onsolidate further between 1.6262 - 1.6279 - 1.6295.

Cannes Oil man 09:39 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Taking 20 pips on $/CAD

Hong Kong Qindex 09:38 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : The market is working on the barrier of 0.6710 // 0.6722.

Syd 09:37 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
The G7 acknowledged that hedge funds and derivatives "have contributed significantly to the efficiency of the financial system." But they added in their communiqué that the growth of hedge funds and the instruments they invest in have made the assessment of risks to financial stability "more complex and challenging."

There are deep divisions among European finance ministers over how to deal with hedge funds. Germany and Austria are pushing for increased regulation, while others such as the U.K., Sweden and the Netherlands oppose plans to write new rules.

The issue has heated up since the beginning of the year, when Germany took over the European Union's six-month rotating presidency, a position that gives Berlin a chance to steer the bloc's policies. Germany is also heading the Group of Eight nations this year, another platform it can use to propose new rules.

Concern about the impact of hedge funds on financial stability has grown since the collapse in September of Connecticut-based Amaranth Advisors, which lost more than $6 billion in a single week in risky energy trades.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:37 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : A projected supporting point is positioning at 0.6708.

Bahrain Bahrain1 09:35 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
ok 2nd part done at 1.9515. GL

Bahrain Bahrain1 09:29 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
stop on cable raised to 90 offer now. GL

van Gecko 09:28 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:51.. good to hear from you too.. here's to less snoozy & more volatile Fx pig-out parties for Europhiles, Yenophobes & FxJunkies with the arrival of the year of the Golden Pig..;)

London The Holy Grail 09:28 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz mode today here mostly watching...1.1680 cad holds downside..the italian political problmes coused some old reminisceces of moves onto the eurusd early today....cable as usual is cabling.....yen a no currency as of yet

manchester 09:27 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
oil man, where is your stop on short $/yen?

Auckland trotter 09:21 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 09:07 GMT February 22, 2007
Good for you.

But as a learning and sharing forum, has this benefited the forum with your explanation and insight of the market?

Ref: Auckland trotter 08:54 GMT February 22, 2007

Syd 09:19 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Shrinking German Domestic Demand

On the surface the 0.9% rise in German GDP in the 4Q of last year was as expected. But with external demand rising by 2.1% and domestic demand falling by 1.3%, it isn't surprising European officials have been so worried about the strength of the EUR/JPY. "Clearly, if external demand is squeezed there might not be much domestic demand to fill the gap," notes Bear Stearns.

Cannes Oil man 09:18 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
BTW aud TP was done while sleeping 7880 as posted.

Syd 09:10 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   


EU's Almunia Calls For Global Talks On Hedge Fund Risks

European Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia Thursday called for global discussions on how to deal with hedge fund risks.


lugano fc 09:07 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
omaha

the sea is full of baccala.....you seems to be one of them

took some profit here on short

Bahrain Bahrain1 09:05 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 08:41 GMT February 22, 2007
Bahrain Bahrain1 08:06 GMT February 22, 2007
Hi frnds...will buy cable at 65/70 with 25 pips stop. GL
Long @ 67 stop at 38 offer. P/t @ 1.9520. GL


part done at 93. stop now at 42. gl

Cannes Oil man 09:05 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Bought E$ 13089
Bought GBP$ 1.8490
shorted $Y 121.19

gl gt

Bahrain Bahrain1 09:01 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
pittsburgh ts 08:56 GMT February 22, 2007
If i hold the GBP/USD short for the 8 hours from now what would be a good but tight stop loss?? Anyone??


Hi...Think stops should be above 95 or above 1.9520 if u can. GOOD LUCK.

Athens MK 08:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
====================================
Athens MK 18:56 GMT February 20, 2007
GBP/$: Here is a level breakdown on cable. The numbers I gave below are valid but these numbers are generated from a second strategy that is being used.

Sell:
1. 1.9539
2. 1.9599
3. 1.9639
4. 1.9729

Profit:
1. 1.9469
2. 1.9339
2. 1.9259

Stop/Reverse:
1.9809
=================================

Our first target has been touched.... We have covered our remaining open positions and are letting them ride down for the next target.... 1.9339-40 and as each day passes that target will start to rise.........

Daily charts are bearish on GBP/$ and will continue to be if 1.96 is not taken out... GBP is running into a inverse brick wall and has no place to go but down if again 1.96 area is not taken out.

Weekly charts are showing bearish momentum studies as well. Until not only the daily downward channel is broken but the weekly resistance as well will a new bull run be considered....

Hong Kong Qindex 08:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.3079.

pittsburgh ts 08:56 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
If i hold the GBP/USD short for the 8 hours from now what would be a good but tight stop loss?? Anyone??

Auckland trotter 08:54 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
OMAHA st
lugano fc

Maybe if you give the reasons for your perspectives of the market with hard data, be it technical or otherwise, you might have something to discuss.

Loosing objectivity is not good to trade the FX market.

Cuckoo's Nest Nurse Wretched 08:53 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Settle down kids, meds on their way. Blue pills today.

Thanks for the heads up, Miami.

Electro-shocks in the afternoon for the entire ward.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:51 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 08:49 GMT February 22, 2007
Good to hear from you hope you are well sir. GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Nurse forgot the medications again LOL. No need for a contest here. I suggest to move this to another forum that cares to hear it. This after all is a forex forum. Peace and GT

mal semiji 08:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
anyone know range for eurusd and usdjpy ,,

van Gecko 08:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Short the Dollar against Japan & others had been a very popular theme.. nothing new under the rising sun.. a great environment for pip'less enlargement make easy spammers with "Shorty_titist" so wide spread in fx'land..


Bahrain Bahrain1 08:48 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 18:29 GMT February 21, 2007
bought $CAD call strike 1.1610 expiry tom. hope to see 40/50 tom. GL

sold at 30 here.....coverd my primum. :-) GL

Charlotte TH 08:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
usdcad in 1.1700 once gain later today is a possibility.

London 08:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc where have you been on the moon, thats old news

lugano fc 08:43 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
omaha

sure you dont know me....

maybie people have not seen the news that jap and chinese (big usd helper) have shifted their reserve policy...no more usd bond and bills (worthless paper) but commodities (see oil,gold,silver....)

usd is out ..... usd is a big short!


ps. wonder if you can price an option omaha my stupid

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:41 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 08:06 GMT February 22, 2007
Hi frnds...will buy cable at 65/70 with 25 pips stop. GL


Long @ 67 stop at 38 offer. P/t @ 1.9520. GL

Syd 08:41 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Cable is on a defensive footing while trend-channel resistance at 1.96 caps the cross, says Royal Bank of Scotland. Now at 1.9490. The bank says a break below the converging inter-week lows of 1.9460 will open risk toward 1.9405, 1.9340 and the January 2007 lows of 1.9265-45

Hong Kong Qindex 08:40 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : If the market momentum is strong is strong enough to penetrate through 1.3094 // 1.3109*, the next barrier is 1.3050 // 1.3069*.

OMAHA st 08:38 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 08:34 GMT February 22, 2007
Giuseppe...careful ..you dont know who you are dealing with when you make these absurd sugestions..

lugano fc 08:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
omaha

or if you prefer make me a price for a put usd/eur 6month
at current prices i would be happy to buy from you....
for about 25milion usd....

Bodrum OEE 08:34 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP is the most overvalued major currency against the JPY

Haifa ac 08:33 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 08:28 GMT //
Be careful
The dollar is now in 15th month of FLAT CORRECTION from the 2005 rally.
3-5 handles rally from here are very likely!

lugano fc 08:32 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
omaha


poor idiot.....

you want some usd? just make me a price a would be very happy to sell you it....

Auckland trotter 08:31 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Looking at a retraction for the EUR/USD at the moment from around the S2 daily pivots, with RSI (14) on the 5min 12hr and 1hr 5day charts coming up from over bought.

General pressure for the EUR/USD I still have as down for now, so will see what eventuates for a sell position.

For me at the moment, it is still taking pips where I see them, be it up or down. Money in the bank is worth a lot more than theoretical speculation.

OMAHA st 08:30 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 08:28 GMT February 22, 2007
hey Giuseppe ...you must belong to that italian forum ..www. baccala.com. that is saying euro/usd to 180...lol..

Hong Kong Qindex 08:30 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:22 GMT - Good evening! GBP/USD : 1.9399 will act as a super magnet.

Atlantic Ocean Trader 08:30 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Yep, trading from a yacht.

I definetely know the GBP is going to go up and then go down.
But not necessary in that order... :-D

The market has been so weird - I am in long CHFUSD 2372 and short EURUSD 3121 but LONG GBP 9520 and looking to buy more at 42. I have mostly waiting orders to go long EUR, short USDCHF etc. My system has been giving VERY mixed signals.

Best of luck all! Just a quick visit.

lugano fc 08:29 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
against any major....

lugano fc 08:28 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
the only OVERVALUED currency here is the USD....

short usd stop 150 pips away reward in long time 1500 pips

Hong Kong Qindex 08:28 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : With a little bit of luck a swing trade may work, i.e. the market may reverse its direction and tackle 229.80 - 229.85. Certainly it has to penetrated through the barrier at 231.95 // 233.25* again.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:08 GMT February 21, 2007
GBP/JPY : We have to wait for the market. It may tackle the barrier at 236.37 // 238.55* or challenge the supporting level at 229.80 - 229.85.

Syd 08:24 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Simon Derrick, a senior currency strategist at Bank of New York in London, points to the extreme levels of short-yen position which make the dollar/yen highly vulnerable to a sharp reversal.

"Its bloated extremes have driven the risk/reward ratio to heights that oblige us to sit on the sidelines and simply wince at its proportions," Derrick reported.

There is also the likelihood that the next time the Bank of Japan considers hiking its rate again, those for the U.S. will be on their way down.

"We expect the Bank of Japan to hike rates again in November at a time when the Fed is likely to cut rates," said Hans Redeker, head of global foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London, noting that the interest rate spread between the two will then start to "narrow significantly."

Redeker noted that even though the next rate hike might be some months off, the central bank ensured that it had signaled another move to the market by not only raising its target rate 25 basis points to 0.50% but by increasing the Lombard rate 35 basis points to 0.75%.

"The widening of the target-Lombard rate spread is typical for a central bank intending to hike rates further and should dampen the market carry trade enthusiasm somewhat," Redeker stated.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 08:22 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Qindex thank you for your valuable input as always. 9510-20 has been over taken but the next support 9400 awaits the bears. My views have not changed on this pair either just use the archives to read them.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 18:37 GMT February 21, 2007
Short term view gbp/usd: After breaking the main support and bouncing off the key support this pair is in a range/consolidation mode for now. Main resistance is still around the 9585-95 area with key resistance 9565-75 just under it. Support is now around the 9510-20 and keeping a tight range on this pair for the time being. As Oil man puts it this pair (not including the usd/jpy pair which is driven mostly by the week jpy for now) is the black sheep in the bunch or is it?? We shall see if the $ strength continues to propagate on to the other majors in the mean time. Peace and GT

OMAHA st 08:22 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 08:20 GMT February 22, 2007
the man with the big words..why dont you just say my analysis depends on "the angle of the dangle".lol

Bodrum OEE 08:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Ocean Trader :-) 07:45 GMT February 22, 2007

A fundamental valuation shift has occurred on GBP/USD. Consequently, the GBP, already overvalued against USD can go down (unless the condition reverses and the GBP revaluation gains faster momentum compared to the USD (which is possible).

Charlotte TH 08:16 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Atlantic Ocean Trader :-) 08:11 GMT February 22, 2007

it better be an island or a yatcht's name in the ocean.

Syd 08:15 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD Looks To Have Topped At 1.3190 - RBoS
EUR/USD backed away from the 1.3175-1.3250 retracement zone and Royal Bank of Scotland says a move through 1.3095-1.3065 support will confirm a correction high of 1.3190 is in place. This, says the bank, will then open downside risk toward 1.2980, being the converging inter-month range low, intact since October 2006. Now at 1.3095, intraday resistance is pegged at 1.3145 and 1.3165

Hong Kong Qindex 08:12 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The following is still valid :


Hong Kong Qindex 10:35 GMT February 21, 2007
GBP/USD : The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position. The projected barrier at 1.9399 // 1.9464 is going to be tested.

Atlantic Ocean Trader :-) 08:11 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 07:50 GMT February 22, 2007
Ocean Trader :-) 07:45 GMT February 22, 2007
=======
Please follow the rules of the forum....use a location that can be recognized.

Sorry Alaska Moon. Corrected.

Mumbai NS 08:10 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q gud day sir awaiting ur post on euro ty in advance

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:06 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Hi frnds...will buy cable at 65/70 with 25 pips stop. GL

Charlotte TH 08:04 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 13:18 GMT February 21, 2007
small short eurusd 1.3147.

--------------------------------------
closed 1.3097 for 50 pips.

Alaska Moon 07:50 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Ocean Trader :-) 07:45 GMT February 22, 2007
=======
Please follow the rules of the forum....use a location that can be recognized.

pittsburgh ts 07:50 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Any thoughts where the GBP/USD will be going today?? Anyone?

Charlotte TH 07:48 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Ocean Trader :-) 07:45 GMT February 22, 2007
commonly held views rarely materialize in fx.1.97 has become a war cry.only likes of Athens are bearish on gbp until 1.9805 is broken.

Ocean Trader :-) 07:45 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Hello,

A quick question: I see a lot of comments on this forum: GBP is a "screaming buy", 9700 is on the cards, etc, as if a rally in the GBP is common knowledge. Why is that? What on earth is so clear that "97" is around the corner?

It would be different if traders here say: My system shows going up, my approach / analysis looks like an upward trend etc...That seems more personal and subjective.

I am here to learn, so please tell me what everyone see in the price action and charts (or whatever) which makes "97" so clear to everyone. Even if it turns out to be true.

Comments please, kindly appreciated... :-)

Charlotte TH 07:42 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 21:36 GMT February 18, 2007
stops for nzdusd short 0.6937 and 0.6975 removed.


long usdchf 1.2333.

-----------------------------------
closed half of 1.2333 long at 1.2427 for 94 pips.

Charlotte TH 07:38 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
small short nzdusd 0.7056.

Charlotte TH 07:35 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
1.2590 is not looking all that distant either.

Charlotte TH 07:15 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd...a drop below 1.9500 may postpone 1.97 for weeks if not more.

madrid mm 07:02 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Japan net foreign bond investment -Y438.3bln ($3.6bln) for week ending Feb 17, Foreign net Japan stock investment +555.8bln .

JPY continues to be under selling pressure as funds load up on fresh carry trades post BoJ hike as BoJ is seen signalling a gradual rate rise trend.

USD/JPY locked in tight range in Asia session, with focus on the Cross/JPY plays as funds still looking to buy on dips.

EUR/JPY hit new highs of 159.13 on funds, model buying, but topside saw profit-taking and exporters selling. Mkt cautious of any Eurozone officials' complaints on weak JPY. USD/JPY offers coming in at 121.30-50 from Japnaese exporters and also options related sellers.

EUR range locked in tight range, with EUR a tad higher on hawkish comments from ECB Papademos, but weighed by good funds and model sellers ahead of 1.3140-50, East European, Sovereign bids at 1.3090-00, but stoploss orders on break of 1.3070.

NZD/USD, NZD/JPY saw profit-taking sales from Asian accounts, and Japanese. GBP remains a touch weighed after dovish comments from BoE Bean.

AUD/USD seeing some selling from funds ahead of 0.7920-30. Talks of large EUR/CHF 1.63 barriers, eye SNB Roth.

Nikkei soars above the key 18K for first time since May 2000, closing +195pts or 1.09% at 18,108.79. JGBs firmer post BoJ rate hike,10-yr yield -0.025%, 1.665%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.84/121.12, EUR/USD 1.3127/1.3144, GBP/USD 1.9516/1.9547, USD/CHF 1.2377/1.2393, AUD/USD 0.7903/0.7918, NZD/USD 0.7046/0.7065.

Syd 06:53 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
The Ifo business confidence index, due 0900 GMT Friday, is seen dropping to 107.5 from 107.9 in January, according to a Dow Jones Newswires poll of 23 economists. The closely watched index hit a record high of 108.7 in December.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:51 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd: Not much to say about this pair since my last comments on it (indicators are unwinding from O/B levels). Support now at 3095-85, 3040-30 and main support 3030-20 for now. Resistance is 3145-55 and 3180-90 for now IMHO. Peace and GT

Miami OMIL (/;-> 06:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Short term view usd/jpy: Considering the nature of the position the move has taken to long to produce. For now the long taken will be closed at a small profit if the 121.15-20 area is not overcome by 3am EST time. Views on the pair stay the same IMHO. Peace and GT

CT Cris 06:33 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 06:21

CT Cris 18:29 GMT February 21, 2007
=====
gbp.jpy filled in sideways level 236.35 and 236.05.
continue buy if breaks 236.35 continue sell if breaks 236.05
mostly the break will be to up.
======
break confirmed to up.


madrid mm 06:27 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
EUR-USD @ gmt+1
R3 = 1.3222
R2 = 1.3194
R1 = 1.3168
Pivot = 1.3140
S1 = 1.3114
S2 = 1.3086
S3 = 1.3060

USA BAY 06:21 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

What is the trend for gbp/jpy pls. thanks

CT Cris 06:07 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Prague viktor 05:44 GMT February 22, 2007

every trade without a S/L is a gamble..
=====
S/L is also a gamble if not used as a sign of trend changed.

hk ab 05:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
athens, do you still keep the model sell on dlr/jpy?

Prague viktor 05:44 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:21 GMT February 22, 2007
G.day all!
every trade without a S/L is a gamble..

OMAHA st 05:30 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 05:23 GMT February 22, 2007
can you say that in plain unadulterated english so that the message can be understood?

Bodrum OEE 05:23 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
It seems a chill has started to accumulate here - replacing self-imposed trust and pseudo track records- It is about time.

Syd 03:53 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Thai Min Warns Of Possible Muslim Terror Attacks In Bangkok

Edmonton Rob 02:49 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Oil Man are you still Long USD/CND?

Sydney ACC 02:35 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Average NZD/JPY rates since June 2006
June 70.99
July 71.38
August 73.32
Sep 76.68
Oct 78.35
Nov 78.49
Dec 81.01
Jan 83.75
Now 85.43

Source: RBNZ

Syd 01:46 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo strikes to cool 'carry trade'
The yen was pummelled by speculators, flirting with its weakest-ever level of yen158.95 against the euro. It slumped almost 2pc to yen121 against the dollar.

Net "short" positions against the yen on the futures markets have reached a record of $23bn, although this is fraction of total bets against the currency.

A growing chorus of officials have warned that carry trade excesses could end in a replay of the 1998 crisis, when the yen suddenly snapped back violently by 12pc in 72 hours - leaving hedge funds nursing huge losses.

the 40pc fall in the value of the yen against the euro since 2001 may have reached a point where governments intervene, creating "political risk" for carry trade addicts.

A "triple alliance" of France, Italy, and Germany has begun to demand action, alarmed the flood of cheap Japanese car exports in Europe. The yen is now so cheap that Peugeot plans to build its new 4X4 sports utility in Japan.

"For European industry, the fall in the yen has had an important impact on their business," said Peer Steinbrück, the German finance minister.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/02/22/cnyen22.xml

Syd 01:40 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Dresdner Kleinwort said its fear and greed index - a measure of the global market's appetite for risk - had just hit an all-time high.It warned that this meant a full-scale slump in risky assets could come in a matter of months, or even weeks.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/02/20/cnspend20.xml

Syd 01:21 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
USD CB SPEAKER NOW! Fed's Yellen - JPY carry trades a risk gamble (FOMC)

Philadelphia Caba 01:20 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Fukui:
- G7 discussed wider market risks than yen carry trades
- Must work harder to better communicate with markets

Philadelphia Caba 01:19 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Fukui
- did note yesterday that inflation would
remain around zero and then rise gradually over the long run.
- uses the word "steadily" today. He has also often
used the term "moderately"
- rate increases will be gradual

Sydney ACC 01:17 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan faces political pressure

The Bank of Japan’s decision yesterday to spurn heavy political pressure in Tokyo for it to keep interest rates pegged at ultra-low levels has fuelled speculation that its future policy moves could now become tainted by political influence.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article1421287.ece

Philadelphia Caba 00:59 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Gold Coast Martin 23:43 GMT February 13, 2007
re eur/jpy ..etc...is something wrong with your info..Mr. Jekyll?

Philadelphia Caba 00:47 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
there's talk that JPY selling linked to large investment trust (set up by major Japan securities firm yesterday) will emerge..(DJ)

UK Alex 00:19 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Japan shows merchandise trade surplus of Y4.4 billion in January, swinging from Y353.5 billion deficit in year-earlier month; much better result than economists' estimate of a Y149.5 billion deficit. Swing to surplus likely due to upbeat exports on recent yen weakness. Lehman Brothers economists say outlook for exports looks good at this point and "the global economy appears to be humming along". In January, exports rise 18.9% on year to Y5.953 trillion, while imports up 10.9% to Y5.949 trillion.

Gen dk 00:17 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

world unbeliever 00:17 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
wrong cava, teehee

Philadelphia Caba 00:16 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
world unbeliever 00:14 GMT
..let me guess who you are...

world unbeliever 00:14 GMT February 22, 2007 Reply   
Funnymentals do not wash with oily

 




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