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Forex Forum Archive for 02/23/2007

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Syd 23:50 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
IMM specs extend euro longs to record high - CFTC

Currency speculators extended their net long euro positions to a record high but trimmed their short positions in the yen, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

The overall dollar position swung to a net short of $5.65 billion, from a net long $3.93 billion a week earlier, according to Reuters calculations using data for the week ended Tuesday.

The net dollar position is derived from the net positions of speculators in the International Monetary Market in yen, euro, pound, Swiss franc and Canadian and Australian dollars.


LINK

Sydney ACC 21:30 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:56 GMT February 23, 2007
The values are based on Purchase Power Parity only. I conceed that in the real world PPP has little meaning, however, one cannot ignore the fact that Kiwi and AUD are supported primarily by interest rates and the yield being sought by overseas investors primarily Jaopanese.
AUD/USD in 2001 dropped to 47 cents. Main reason? Because AUD interest rates were lower than USD rates.
NZ has a worse current account balance than the US, the current exchange rate is doing nothinbg to alleviate this problem. As RBNZ jack up interest rates the currency moves up sufficiently to cancel out the effect. End result rate increases are a waste of time. If the politicians were serious they would increase income tax at the middle and higher marinal rates and suck out the money that way. But no they pass the problem onto the central bankers and they use the only tool at their disposal.
Now one day some day interest rates will have achieved their target, domestic consumption will fall. They will start to reduce rates and what will happen thge Kiwi will fall. It probably won't fall to the PPI level this is unlikely. What will happen is as sure as night follows day when they do indicate that rates will fall there will be a stampede to repatriate money. But i can't see that day just yet.

Cannes Oil man 20:57 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Present should be past in below post.

Cannes Oil man 20:56 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 20:21 GMT February 23, 2007


There is no true value , there's the current value , the present value , and the value there will be tomorrow, whatever it is?
It's probably one of the hardest thing , not thinking in terms of highs/lows for a human (system's don't have this problems) , however .57 true value is the past , it might never ever be seen again.
Anyways good weekend ,acc.

Geneva DS 20:51 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USD WEEK ahead... my view is that as a general surprise next week could be the most ugly for USD since a long time... but for once... USDJPY will probably lead the way... my short term targets... 117.50///1.2100//1.3350//1.9850 good luck good week end

USA BAY 20:40 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

It is a great pleasure to read your views. Can't thank you enough for taking the trouble to post such valuable insights. Thank you so much and have a great weekend and a profitable week ahead. gt/gl

Sydney ACC 20:21 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 20:09 GMT February 23, 2007
Your view is also that of Richard Grace, senrior analyst at CBA he has been calling it up to 82cents for six months now. His latest call on the Kiwi is 74 cents. NAB analysts are still bearish AUD, however, with all things being equal its hard to see it retrace much over the next couple of months.
We've got ECB meeting on March 8 when they will incease rates by 25bp, Trichet will talk the talk and try to walk the walk so that should support the euro depress the dollar, BoE same day - no change then FED FOMC on March 21 again no change.
The sub-prime mortgage problem is going to get bigger and put a dampner on the USD and further support Aussie.
Japanese savers will continmue to plough the antipodean furrow and give it the support. Nonetheless true value of the Aussie notwithstanding US problems is still 68 cents and the Kiwi is 57 cents.
Queensland and WA economies are carrying the rest of teh country at the moment, NSW would be in intensive care now if wasn't for the indirect flows from these two states.

Dublin Flip 20:09 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
ACC I think it's a case of the story meeting the soft side of the sentiment. It was once mooted they'd be priming a candidate through the VP position but with such a stench of failure it would be political suicide for anyone with Presidential aspirations. Cheyney is on "gardening detail".

On ol Oscar I'd say she has made her intentions known. It appears today will be the highest weekly close for 2 years and unless something comes awry in the next few days we should invalidate january's outside bearish month. Given the amount of bearish technical calls on the Ozzie again (a couple of weeks ago) I think we have an impressive squeeze in the offing. 82c seems fairly conservative first hurdle to me.

Sydney ACC 20:08 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:51 GMT February 23, 2007
Now the hard part.Well this week AUD/JPY has gone from 93.77 to 95.84, a rise of 2.07, that erased the loss incurred since mid-January.
I don't look at the cross much more as two sepoarate currencies. I feel AUD/USD is going to be well supported at 0.7880, JPY is harder to predict, look at today JPY has been slightly stronger than euro and cable, yet carry trades could have had a different effect.
So if JPY remains here then the entry point is 95.34.

Patra alex 20:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Any views regarding CHF/JPY short and GBP/CHF? Seem to be good entries at current levels.

USA BAY 19:51 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Learnt something new again today. So given that scenario, what would be a good level to long aud/jpy and usd/jpy. Thanks.

Sydney ACC 19:50 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 19:38 GMT February 23, 2007
As you know Cheney is in Sydney right now. there was an article in yesterday's Herald about his irrelevancy in Wahington since the change in Congress. He has been so marginalised he has little to do except come out to Australia on a juncket.
There were several quotes printed that illustrated the type of man he is.
Richard Armitage stated Cheney's diplomacy is to say "Listen here f****r, do as I say.
Bret Stowcroft who was nationalk security adviser to Reagan and Bush said Cheney was life long friend but he doesn't recognise hime now.
A Washington insider said we could keep hime as long as we want.
That the market may have reacted to his comments regarding a strike fails to take account of others in the administatrion against such a move and the legal impediments in the way.

Sydney ACC 19:42 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:10 GMT February 23, 2007
AUD/USD is going to find it tough to crack up through 80 cents no matter whatever happens to the big dollar. We have been up here an failed so many times over the last three years there will be plkenty of exporter buying and option barriers in place to slow the appreciation. What has characterised the failures previously has been the level to which it has fallen subsequently. In April 2004 it failed 80 cents and fell to 68 cents within three months, in Mar 2005 it fell to 73 cents within the same time frame and similarly in 2006 while it only reached 78cents within three months it fell away to 73 cents again.
On this occasion we went to 0.7980 in early January and quickly fell back to 77cents, however, this time it has rallied back strongly so we are back at 0.7920 and holding this area for much of this week. This leads me to think that bthis time it might be different. Now if we do crack 80 cents it will be like a dam wall giving way there will be a tidal wave of buying as exporters that held back hoping that similar situation as occurred previously repeats itself.
Now look at the JPY and that is probably destined to go to 125.00 befiore June.
If both scenarios work in unison then AUD/JPY will head for 102.50. A level we haven't seen for 15 years.

Dublin Flip 19:38 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
ACC Look at the Iran announced agreement last week. Bolton bleated how terrible it was but the US (and everyone else) agreed to it so it shows that losing power in congress and senate has changed the power structure. If Junior is lame duck President then Cheyney and the other neo-con after-dinner theorists are even more irrelevant these days.

That UK are withdrawing troops from Iraq further underscores that the wishes of the more centrist views of the electorate from both sides of the pond are calling the tune on foreign policy (for better or worse).

Quack quack Mr President. Quack Quack Mr Prime Minister

USA BAY 19:13 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

There seems to be contadictory report on the Iran situation and I am definitely dollar bearish for the coming weeks. Both euro and gbp have been bullish lately.

USA BAY 19:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Could you kindly comment on aud/jpy please. thanks

Sydney ACC 19:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 18:04 GMT February 23, 2007
I think sentiment has soured towards the dollar somewhat owing to a number of stormclouds on the horizon.
1. The worsening situation in Iraq.
2. Increasing tension with Iran and the threats of a strike from Cheney despite both Gates and Rice being vehemently opposed.
3. The sub-prime mortgage failures appears to be getting worse and this may affect the broader home lending market.
It seems as though whenever sentiment turns even slightly favourable for the dollar these days it quickly turns around proving it to be shallow at the best.

Auckland peat 18:39 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
well I cant help but think the upside break of the 3 day TL down for Eur has negated the pressure on it and reconfirmed my bullish take. On the daily 20 SMA hasnt gone down this month, there was no DI cross , and ADX is now turning upwards

Lahore FM 18:18 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 17:58 GMT February 23, 2007
yes ACC,am riddling over the same,.the iran situation may well be an expalnation for the flows into currencies today.

USA BAY 18:05 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Non-options market contacts are talking of a rumoured multi-billion Eur build ...
Non-options market contacts are talking of a rumoured multi-billion Eur build of option interest at 160.00 in [EUR/JPY]. Options contacts say structures are in place both there and at 161.00, but their composition and time horizon is unknown as yet. Certainly, though, they are citing good sized offer interest in place before the figure. While the BoJ's Fukui reiterated the Bank's gradualist approach to rates, a well above f/c, 0.6% m/m, rise in Jan CSPI may add to reportedly good sized Asian offer interest in Usd/Jpy at 121.65 to slow the Jpy's losses for the moment. Note also contacts saying there was little carry trade activity undertaken in the Asian session.

USA BAY 18:04 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
A number of reportedly good sized 1.3170-85 [EUR/USD] strikes are said to be...
A number of reportedly good sized 1.3170-85 [EUR/USD] strikes are said to be due to expire on Monday. That may couple with a US data-free day to provide the pair with a prop despite overall positive Usd sentiment.

USA BAY 18:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
[GBP] flows dominated the European morning in an otherwise extremely quiet sess...
[GBP] flows dominated the European morning in an otherwise extremely quiet session. Decent demand of Cable was seen in early trade from UK clearer's, a German fund and Eastern European sovereign. Car futures were also noted on the bid, with UK clearer sales noted in Eur/Gbp. Gbp/Yen demand was also a feature. A market sitting slightly long ahead of the GDP release pared back some longs after the data came in line with expectations (unrevised at 0.8% q/q and 3.0% y/y). The weakness was short lived however, and Cable soon recovered highlighting the overall bullish sentiment after Sentances"" earlier hawkish speech. Stops above 1.9610 in Cable, below 0.6685 Eur/Gbp and above 238.00 in Gbp/Yen remain the key targets amongst short term specs.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mtl JP 18:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Many of you will have your Trading platform "Hedging feature enabled" automatically over the week-end of March 03rd. Unless you pro-actively object.

Join discussion on g-v's Help Forum

CT PT 17:59 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/Yen will hit 245 next wk..before it retraces back to 235-236 again...
Happy W/E

Sydney ACC 17:58 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:45 GMT February 23, 2007
Where I am confused is that as the yen is bought in the cross sterling, euros etc shoukld be sold. Therefore when the cross position is liquidated relative to teh dollar yen appreciates while the currency ought to depreciate, but that hasn't happened.
The only reasons I can see are technical as the currency broke certain levels momentum funds bought currencies and sold dollars and the other reason being political particularly Iran.

Gen dk 17:50 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 17:45 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 17:39 GMT February 23, 2007
many thanx JJ.

ACC.another aspect is jpy crosses unwind.

Lahore FM 17:43 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
i am yet to review my view ACC.if i changed my mind will post it here sir.

Sydney ACC 17:40 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
So Lahore your comments were bullish with regard to the USD. How do you see cable and euro next week.

LKWD JJ 17:39 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
WELCOME BACK!!

Lahore FM 17:08 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
dubai 17:01 GMT February 23, 2007
thanx dubai.

Lahore FM 17:07 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Vienna GD 16:49 GMT February 23, 2007
thanx GD,yep gold looking higher just as u said.

NY RP 17:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Waiting for the Gold pop.........looking for a $50 to $75 move shortly. Visibility is here. The question is how long can the USD Index hold up. When the index is below the .8000 for a period of time, then all bets are valid for .6000 or lower. Longer term obviously.

dubai 17:01 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
to lahore fm
nice to see you back,hope for long

dubai 17:01 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
to lahore
nice to see you back,hope for long

madrid mm 16:55 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, and for newbie mainly, remember that, IMHO, to be a successful trader you need to
- always be involved in education, training and practice.

(writing it here is also a way to remind mydself. Doesn't hurt to be reminded !!)

have a great w/e FX jedi

Vienna GD 16:49 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
!!! Nice to see ya back Lahore FM !!!

For how long will you stay with us? Hopefully again for a longer time!

Did you notice gold and silver? Remember what i talked about all the time?! gggg

Gen dk 16:36 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 16:33 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
RYD LAILA 16:23 GMT February 23, 2007
so u show up the same day i do.okay.
on usdjpy ur view is good.that is one way of looking at it.

Gen dk 16:25 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

RYD LAILA 16:23 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
I am back
how r u?
usd/jap will be long at 121.32
and short at 120.95
is that OK?
welcom back

Atlanta South 16:22 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
Tks for 16:19 as I value your views. Gt & weekend.

Lahore FM 16:19 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
South thanx,eurusd might have difficulty at previous highs as jpy has just begun to weigh.this can accelrate.1.3140 pivotal.

Atlanta south 16:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM/
Good to see you back. Just got to ask for your take on
EUR/USD.....this latest move & beyond. Tks 7 gt.

dc CB 16:13 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
from Briefing.com

10:48 ET Cheney hints at Iran strike - The Australian :The Australian reports U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney has raised the possibility of military action to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.He has endorsed Republican senator John McCain's proposition that the only thing worse than a military confrontation with Iran would be a nuclear-armed Iran. In an exclusive interview with The Weekend Australian, Mr Cheney said: "I would guess that John McCain and I are pretty close to agreement."

RYD LAILA 16:12 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
long GBP/yen at 237.75 , 100 pip

Dallas GEP 16:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Upon the next approach of 1.9650, a short MAY work very well on GBP/USD

Gen dk 16:08 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Cali mmm 16:04 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Good call on USD/CHF so far Lahore.

UK Alex 15:55 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Comex gold and silver remain higher on fund buying, says Stephen Platt, analyst with Archer Financial Services. "The commodity markets have been quite firm," he says. "I think there is a search for alternative assets after some hesitation back in January. That is a big factor contributing to the support we've seen." He cites the improved tone in the energy market lately, coupled with a softer U.S. dollar. April gold is up $6.50 to $689.50, and March silver is up 33 cents to $14.58.

manchester 15:47 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
that might explain why gold is at 686 now

UK Alex 15:29 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Another classic for you:
A story is making the rounds where VP Cheney is reported to have hinted at a US strike against Iran.

Dallas GEP 15:23 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Rob, eur/jpy and eur/gbp both are supporting euro/usd longs....I would wait and see if we get break on 1.3200

Lahore FM 15:23 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
short eurusd 1.3187.long afresh usdchf 1.2299 .

earlier stops at 1.2310 taken.

Dallas GEP 15:21 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
It will be interesting see if the 1.9650 seller of GBP wants more

Edmonton Rob 15:21 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Anyone thinking that shorting the Eur/USD here is a good move for a few pips?

Gen dk 15:18 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 15:09 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Geopolitical risks are being cited as the main reason.

UK Alex 15:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Well thanks for the tip, but my feed says nothing of model fund buying, just dollar longs are being pared back going into the weekend.

Cannes Oil man 15:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
large $ZAR 7.0435 option

Cannes Oil man 15:01 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:42 GMT February 23, 2007
Cannes Oil man 14:23 GMT February 23, 2007
Don't want to go against the grain here, but I've heard absolutely no talk of model fund buying.

--------

You probably don't come up with the good info then, cause if i repost (copy pasting from my feed source) that model and funds are buying gbp , then model and funds are buying gbp, which isn't a secret as it comes up on the feed.

UK Alex 14:57 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
UK clearer on offer at 1.9650

manchester 14:57 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
does anyone know of the recent highs before xmas on NZD/USD that might prove a resistant level for this pair?

Gen dk 14:54 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

London HC 14:53 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
I just came back from a long lunch and expected to see nothing to be going on. Did I miss any news?

Dallas GEP 14:48 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Not good for usd/jpy going higher today..most of yen pairs are drawing back from highs....Unlikely eur/gbp will see 6726 today.....gbp/jpy shorts from 237 highs was an excellent idea. Usd/cad has seen it's daily low or NEAR it already. Euro push to 1.3180-3200 area possible today along with 1.9660 gbp. Out for a while CHOW

NYC Ed 14:48 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man...sorry ...I just read your previous posts, just the opposite of what I was asking..nice call Cannes

NYC Ed 14:43 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man...please clarification.. is what you are saying short today GBP would not be a bad play??? Thanks

UK Alex 14:42 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 14:23 GMT February 23, 2007
Don't want to go against the grain here, but I've heard absolutely no talk of model fund buying.

Cannes Oil man 14:41 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 17:49 GMT February 19, 2007
LDN 17:30 GMT February 19, 2007

In a few days, you will see recom's to long GBP floating around , when prices reach 1.97 , meanwhile the funds, banks etc , will already be long , from around here, and will unload slowly as public learns of this opportunity...It rises a little more , then public runs out of fund , and the banks/models keep taking profit , prices goes down , banks /models /funds go long yet again, while public goes short..Cycles..

----
The first has started with a few recom's to go long today..
Still 3,4 hundred pips push could come from this.

SOUTH AFRICA K.P 14:38 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
HI GUYS ANY CHANCE THE JPY WILL GO BACK UP TO 121.55 TODAY.

Lahore FM 14:38 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf 1.2341 stops 10 bid.

Gen dk 14:36 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

jkt-aye 14:35 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Oil man 14:23 ... great info re: model fund. thanks

lugano fc 14:28 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
close my short usd here....

Halifax CB 14:28 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Other things to bear in mind re. $/CAD are the oil money xfers on the 26th (?) (mentioned ystdy by dc CB, IIRC) and that Mar 1 is an important date relative to Cdn taxes. Just FWIW.

Cali mmm 14:27 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, I am short USD/CAD. Can you share what is the target for today in your opinion? TKS.

UK Alex 14:26 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Nat Gas QG (LTD)

Cannes Oil man 14:24 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Stops to entry on E$ , looks like we will see 1.32 today.
1.3090..No reasons to go down from here..Even though it won't get help from EY .

Mtl JP 14:23 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
watch n learn: possible stop hunt exercise in action:

Cannes Oil man 14:13 GMT February 23, 2007
Expiracy 1.3150 coming up.
(post on GVI)

Cannes Oil man 14:23 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cable has built on its early NY session gains and scaled a new eight-day peak three pips shy of 1.9640 amid talk of fresh model fund buying. Prior model fund buying helped inflate the rate to a high of 1.9602 yesterday.

---

The Big shuffle has started..Which i was referring to start of week...Banks and models will now demand gbp..
gl gt

Lahore FM 14:16 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:48 GMT February 23, 2007
gbpjpy,229.20 is more like it.

lugano fc 14:16 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:06 GMT February 23, 2007


you need to buy the jpy to enter the stock market ;-)

if nikkey show sign of rally the jpy will streghten then the carry traders (but this week speaking of carry traders for me is wrong...it is more just speculators of the "money for nothing" song ;-)
so could be explosive move .... in both side of course but i still keep to my long jpy

Hong Kong Qindex 14:14 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : 1.1567 is the initial weekly cycle downside targeting point. We have to wait and see whether there is a rebound from here.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:12 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : the market is trying to penetrate through the barrier 1.1538 // 1.1567.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : the current expected trading range is 1.9609 - 1.9666.

Cannes Oil man 14:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
No , ab..I"m waiting for my E$ to pick up , along nzd..
The yen pairs aren't going to go up much today anyways, everyone wants to unload before week end, not load up more.
Next week is different story.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : the market is going to consolidate between 0.6672 - 0.6696 - 0.6719.

madrid mm 14:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
The yen fell to a record low against the euro on Friday and held close to a four-year trough against the dollar as the Bank of Japan indicated that interest rates would remain on hold for the foreseeable future. Toshihiko Fukui, BoJ governor, told the Japanese parliament that the central bank would adjust interest rates ““in accordance with the development of the economy and prices”.

Nikkei climbs while yen sinks
The yen plumbed fresh lows but Japanese stocks and bonds forged ahead amid growing confidence that interest rates were in for a period of stability.

ft.com

hk ab 14:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
oilman, any retracement number on e/j and g/j you like?

Ger 14:02 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
NYC I am also interested.

Ger 14:01 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil, any thoughts on Cable today

Cannes Oil man 14:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Yesterday i talked about EY going mildly down and gbpjpy up...so u see usa bay , it's possible.

NYC Ed 13:57 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
So we can go LONG later ???

NYC Ed 13:55 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cable, anyone think we see pullback this morning ???

hk ab 13:55 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
oilman, I forgot my credit to you, calls are as top as usual.

hk ab 13:50 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
dlr/cad paving the path for dlr/jpy.....

hk ab 13:48 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
FM//Welcome back!! Happy Lunar Pig Year for you.
This morning, I read your gbp/jpy comment ---> 129, is it your confirmed view?

GVI john 13:47 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
croug - No

Fri, Feb 23, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan CSPI
23:50 JA- Dec All Sector Activity Index
09:30 UK- 4Q06 GDP (2nd release)
09:30 GE- Feb IFO

Mon, Feb 26, 2007
05:00 JA- BOJ Minutes (Jan 17-18)
GE- Feb CPI (this week)
07:00 GE- Mar Gfk
15:00 EZ- Jan M3

Tue, Feb 27, 2007
07:00 GE- Jan CPI
09:00 EZ- Jan M3 (Money Supply)
11:00 UK- Feb CBI Distributive Trade Survey
13:30 US- Jan Durable Goods
15:00 US- Feb Cons Conf
15:00 US- Jan Existing Home Sales

Full G-V Data Calendar

london croug 13:44 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
please, I would like to know if there is any financial news still expected today, and at what time?

Lahore FM 13:43 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
higher 237's good place for short gbpjpy.

UK Alex 13:41 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
The dollar is modestly weaker against the yen and euro after reversing some mild gains against the single currency overnight on the back of slightly softer-than-expected IFO data out of Germany. Sterling is at a one-week high versus the dollar after revised UK 4Q GDP data beat expectations. There is no important U.S. data out Friday, and the only other events on the slate are economic outlook speeches in California by two Fed officials, Fisher at around 10:45 a.m. EST and Yellen at about 4 p.m. EST. At 8:30 a.m. EST, the euro stood at $1.3137 from $1.3125 late Thursday, while the dollar was at Y121.32 versus Y121.60, while the according to EBS. Sterling was at $1.9622 from $1.9564 late Thursday.

Plovdiv Gotin 13:33 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cable/ barriers in front of 1.9679-->1.9619/33/42/50/70.

hk ab 13:33 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
thanks JP.

Gen dk 13:32 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mtl JP 13:29 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
ab / no. just some FED yakkers later this am

hk ab 13:23 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
do we have any data apart from cad one?

to dr unken katt 13:17 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
cable R2 is 9677

london gr 13:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
manchester 13:03 GMT February 23, 2007
19647....

NYC Ed 13:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Do you guys wait for NY to open ? Because you all have some interesting plays

London The Holy Grail 13:09 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
or rise into 97

Mtl JP 13:09 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
manchester 13:03 / IF it closes abouve 1.9605: 1.9750

NYC Ed 13:07 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
I just can't BUY Cable..I need at least a 20-25 pip pullback

UK Alex 13:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Hearing of some chunky bids being made.

NYC Ed 13:05 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
manchester ...imho..9687 on a Daily chart..

NYC Ed 13:04 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Gone, got my 20 pips, quick scalp. probably pulled the plug to quick. 2 of my three indicators starting turning down.

manchester 13:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
whats the next big resistance for cable?

Halifax CB 12:50 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
mm - for Cdn statistical data releases, check Here. While waiting for the 1330's, poke through the back issues, like yesterday's on profitability. Right now, Canada is on a bit of a roll; after last fall's pullback relative to the $ (from lower energy prices and things like the canning of income trusts) I wouldn't be surprised to see it continue to strengthen (relative to the $). It's also politically stable (at least at the moment).

GVI john 12:46 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3126	121.54	1.2384	1.9564	1.1609	0.7890	159.53
High	1.3144	121.64	1.2437	1.9601	1.1632	0.7918	159.62
Low	1.3081	120.84	1.2376	1.9463	1.1595	0.7878	158.56
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/22/2007					
5 day 	1.3138	120.24	1.2358	1.9532	1.1636	0.7883	158.00
10 day	1.3095	120.59	1.2403	1.9522	1.1670	0.7837	157.92
20 day 	1.3037	120.78	1.2437	1.9579	1.1743	0.7796	157.47
50 day 	1.3043	120.13	1.2379	1.9585	1.1710	0.7827	156.68
100 day	1.2961	118.84	1.2371	1.9357	1.1543	0.7769	154.04
200 day	1.2845	117.28	1.2362	1.9019	1.1366	0.7647	150.67

UK Alex 12:43 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Watch out for gunning of Euro/GBP stops.

NYC Ed 12:42 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
You see it's post's like that...Cable you sneak..

CT Cris 12:41 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:50 GMT February 23, 2007
CT Cris 18:55 GMT February 22, 2007
Charlotte TH

gbp.usd should decline till 19540-30 before it rise up again.
=======
just to remind you.
========
ready to decline.


NYC Ed 12:41 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
I am also loving Cable, but that is so sneaky, it looks like a SURE LONG but....

NYC Ed 12:39 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
BUT...just for Maybe 20-25 pips, quick scalp, I HOPE !!

NYC Ed 12:39 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Personally, I am going LONG EUR/USD @ 3114

NYC Ed 12:38 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
with ALL the USD negative stuff past couple of days, anyone LONG Cable or EUR/USD ???

madrid mm 12:35 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
ooooops sorry fx news

Global-View 12:30 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
mm, cite your source.

madrid mm 12:25 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CAD continues to confound the market with its ability to appreciate. Fundamental economic data events have not been especially exciting, but the news is either neutral or positive. One of the most impressive and confusing data events recently has been the enormous monthly increases in Canadian jobs growth. In Dec 2006, jobs increased by 61.6k and Jan 2007 jobs increased by an astronomical 88.9k. The news is confusing because GDP does not seem to be impacted significantly be these robust figures. While there is nothing on the Canadian domestic data calendar, the market will be keyed up to see what a Stats Canada report, due for release at 08:30 edt (13:30 gmt), that addresses the issue of Canadian employment vs GDP growth (Search CAD + StatsCan).

While there is no specific and definitive gauge to monitor the "carry trade" phenomenon, it is becoming more apparent that the more warnings are voiced by government and central bank officials in Europe, Japan and the US, the more popular the trade seems to become. An ad hoc guide to the market's fear of the "carry trade" may be the trends seen in JPY, the major funding currency, and the most obvious high yielding currencies. Since the beginning of the year JPY rallied vs the Antipodeans after European officials warned that JPY weakness and carry trades would be on the agenda at G7. G7 representatives discussed JPY weakness and carry trades and did nothing. Since G7 more warnings have been voiced and JPY continues to be the source of funding for what appears to be a growing group of market participants.

UK Alex 12:13 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
ECB's Trichet says he believes strongly in verbal discipline in FX comments.

Philadelphia Caba 12:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
NEWS: Trichet says Clear Message Sent on FX at Essen G7 - Rtrs

Bris rc 11:57 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 11:51
which datas ?

RIC fxq 11:55 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 11:51 GMT

data is done, just Dallas Fed Fischer at 1030 - I think - and SF Fed's Yellen at 1530 ET. (1530 and 2030 GMT).

Cannes Oil man 11:51 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
A day like today is going to be a shark fest ,I might trade after all datas are over , and the cleaning is done ..


GL GT.

Cannes Oil man 11:45 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
I'm off for the day , good weekend.

UK Alex 11:26 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
This is the second day of deal-related gains for Drax shares. On Thursday, analysts at Collins Stewart noted that the shares have been rising since Feb. 19 because of speculation that venture capital funds are interested in buying the company.
"A bidder that believes in electricity-price recovery could see value as high as 990 pence," the broker said. Drax shares were trading at 733 pence on Friday morning.

Cannes Oil man 11:18 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Taking my 100 pips on my yen.

UK Alex 11:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
M&A activity is probably moving cable right now.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 23:08 GMT //

it was me some days ago asking for your opinion on GBPCAD as I read some report on DJ suggesting that selling GBP VS CAD is good for the coming months...
- anyway the 2 hour chart answered my question a day ago..

ABHA FXS 10:58 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
maby gbpusd.will move up to
1.9700
1.9775
the top 1.9810 than crash down next week..

Lahore FM 10:47 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 10:24 GMT February 23, 2007
thank you ABHA.

Auckland trotter 10:34 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:02 GMT February 23, 2007
Taken profit on the down and now looking for the up.

ABHA FXS 10:24 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
hi, nice too meet u agine..and you wellcome board agine..

Miami OMIL (/;-> 10:24 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Short term view usd/jpy: Looking a bit tough as 121.60.70 is holding the line for this pair. Considering that progress has been stalled I will cut this long lose and protect the profits so far if that resistance in not taken in about a couple of hours. Looks like other positions might do the same before the weekend comes calling IMHO. Last comments before getting some rest. Peace and GT

mal semiji 10:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
hello Sofia Kaprikorn , can i learn more from u and can u give me ur email ..tq

Auckland trotter 10:11 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:03 GMT February 23, 2007
I appreciate your input to the forum.

If you want to discuss more then ask Jay for my e-mail. Always willing to further and develop ideas with like minded people.

CT Cris 10:05 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd

today trading like aircraft into turbilance , up down in rapid move...take care.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:54 GMT //
thank you - I also try to learn so appreciate your comments - I try to develop some strategy of my own and so I ask different poeple to understand different trading styles tnx again..

mal semiji 09:55 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
hi all im as a new trader here ,, can tell me, where i can get the chart and learn about low and high any currency, onemore i want to know where i can get a range for any pair ..tq

Auckland trotter 09:54 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:21 GMT February 23, 2007

Maybe this should be on the help form - but there is little posting on the main forum.

I am not an expert, and repeatedly say that I only post on the forum to learn.


“ can I ask you what do you describe as pressure?”

I use several time scale charts and look at various levels on these charts, the longer ones taking priority, along with the correlation of the shorter charts.. I also use various indicators along with trend lines. Pressure, or certainty of a trade I base on the correspondence of various indicators / trend lines. If there is an agreement of figures for the price between various charts then I am more certain of my trade. If I see a resistance level, then I see a pressure on the price.

Pivots and range figures I take on the given candles from my charts.

The times I understand the market from my set up I am happy - even if I make a loss - because I have a reference to understand either way.


Looking to learn, don’t get it right every time, but getting there.

CT Cris 09:50 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 18:55 GMT February 22, 2007
Charlotte TH

gbp.usd should decline till 19540-30 before it rise up again.
=======
just to remind you.

Auckland trotter 09:26 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
For those interested ref my post yesterday.

My present trade has now passed the 10% profit mark - ref my post yesterday, so have a decision as to take profit or let the trade run.

In this case with indicators showing more down I will let it run for now. Watching the RSI (14) on the 5min 12hr chart, if it goes over bought will exit the trade, and, either look for an up trade, or wait to enter more down.

We shall see.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:21 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:02 GMT //
hi - just trying to develop some more understanding...
1. can I ask you what do you describe as pressure? as I see this often in your posts... I look at 1/2/4/8 hours charts and all show to me the EURUSD sloping down and the 50 or 55 MA is sloping down on 1/2/4 hours charts - but also it is a bit controversial as on the 1 and 8 hours charts the MAs around 50 period are slightly giving signs of reversal to the upside - so can you pls elaborate - I try to focus on MAs as the sloping as the early sign of direction - do you think it's a working strategy?
2.pls how do you get your pivots and how you use them - do take them from a chart at let's say 00:00GMT and calculate them on your own? and how do you grade them - which one is stronger and has more potential to reverse the price action?
good trading!!

Gen dk 09:19 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 09:17 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
trooter siesta time ? it is 24 h -day in Spain !!!
lol
time to go swimming
have a great day all of you

Auckland peat 09:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
lol mm
yeh very quiet , contrary to FM's views who I respect a lot I am bullish Euro tho it is struggling a bit. It seems to get a lot of pressure placed on it eg y'days ride down to 1.3083 where I picked up another, and then bounce back relatively vigorously - even in the last two hours the 15 minute candles have long wicks on their lower side.
In the longer time frame I am viewing the last 10 days as a consolidatory phase after the ride up from 1.30 to 1.32.

Auckland trotter 09:14 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:37 GMT February 23, 2007
“anybody here ? “

Yes, it does seem a bit early for siesta time, and the UK market to take their tea break on your part of the globe.

Syd 09:04 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:02 GMT just so boring at the moment <:0)

madrid mm 09:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:02 GMT February 23, 2007

you as well !!!!!

madrid mm 09:02 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA JFO 09:00 GMT February 23, 2007

2 people !!!yipiiiii

Auckland trotter 09:02 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
I see a resistance level for the EUR/USD:

The price has been testing the weekly I5 pivot of 1.3118
The daily pivot is 1.3116
The 50% fib on the 1day 6mo chart is around 1.3114.

Have general down pressure at the moment from resistant trend lines on various time charts.

Looking at down pressure towards the weekly pivot of 1.3083 for now, but we shall see, with the opening of the UK market.

madrid mm 09:02 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:59 GMT February 23, 2007

i started to feel lonely. Thank god you are here 8-)

GENEVA JFO 09:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
MADRID MM
Hihi there
I have still same levels r under 1.3160 n sup 1.3090
Seems that market is waiting some "NEWS" ??
Good trading day two yu n nice WE

Syd 08:59 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
German Feb Ifo Was Seen At 107.5
German Feb Ifo 107.0 Vs 107.9 In Jan

madrid mm 08:37 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
anybody here ?
8-)

Bandung Gonjez Gozali 07:47 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Mr.Qindex any share your views about locco ? thx ...gl !!

Syd 07:08 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Brown losing touch on economy, say voters
George Jones, Political Editor

Gordon Brown is losing his reputation for economic competence and failing to convince voters he would make a better prime minister than David Cameron, a Daily Telegraph-YouGov poll shows today.

This is the second poll this week to indicate that Gordon Brown is losing ground to David Cameron

The Conservatives are now seen as more likely than Labour to run the economy well — the most significant turnaround in the public's view of the Tories since they were swept from power by New Labour a decade ago.

The poll is a big blow for Mr Brown on the day that:
LINK

madrid mm 07:04 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi, remember this -timing is everything.

Times: BoE MPC Andrew Sentance has wasted no time in showing his talons, voting 4 times to raise borrowing costs. He says the underlying worry is that we have seen a combination of a rise in inflation and demand picking up.The worry is that the pickup in demand will perpetuate the rise in inflation and companies find it easier to push up prices, and the increase in inflation is longer and perhaps more sustained than would be consistent with the inflation target."..

BoE Sentance says after 3 rate rises since last August, he detects "some tentative first signs of some impact in the housing market". Nor does he much share worries over a strong pound.

BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui says BoJ totally open to the timing of the next rate change. Interest rates to remain very low for some time. Interest rates increases will be gradual. Consumption slump is temporary. CPI may be flat due to falls in oil price. BoJ decided rate rises needed to prolong growth. - BBG

MoF Koji Omi says the government respects BoJ monetary policy decision.

Econs Prof Hiroko Ota says expects BoJ to support economy, with accommodative policy and low rates.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify on Feb 28 before the House Budget Committee starting 1500GMT.

Times: PM Tony Blair has declared himself at odds with hawks in the US Admin by saying publicly for the first time that it would be wrong to take military action against Iran. The IAEA concluded that Iran had expanded its nuclear programme, defying UN demands for it to be suspended. Senior British Govt sources have told The Times that they fear US Pres George Bush will seek to "settle the Iranian question through military means" next year, before the end of his second term if he concludes that diplomacy has failed.

Relatively quiet day today after 2 days of Cross/JPY buying and resurgence of JPY carry trades post BoJ.

JPY still under pressure, with EUR/JPY having inched up to hit new highs of 159.63, before coming off on back of Japanese securities/ houses selling and profit-taking out of Tokyo. US funds and investment houses on the buying side, while Japanese exporters, securities houses, Tokyo names said to be on the selling side.

USD/JPY capped by talks of good offers ahead of 121.60-80, before key 122.00 handle, while bids are placed at 121 lows now. EUR/JPY good offers ahead of 159.60-70, before the key and psychological 160.00 barriers, where market will be cautious of more Eurozone FX talks.

EUR/USD still in range, with talks of good European offers capping topside 1.3140-50, while Sovereign, East Europeans bids at 1.3080-90, stoploss on break of 1.3070/50. Focus on German IFO.

GBP/USD seen a touch supported on back of hawkish BoE Sentance comments, could see more GBP/JPY demand. GBP/USD bids at 1.95 lows from real money demand and UK clearers, while offers coming in ahead of 1.96 handle.

AUD/USD offers coming in at 0.7900-10 from UK clearers, Asian names, with talks of options related selling ahead of 0.7910-20.
Some focus on news that Coles Group has put itself up for sale again for at least AUD18.2bln. Bids at 0.7850-70.

NZD/USD offers coming in at 0.7050, with NZD/JPY off its 14 mth highs of 85.70-80. EUR/CHF focus still on the key 1.6300 barriers.

Nikkei +79pts or 0.44% at 18,188, highest close since May 2000. JGBs lower after post BoJ rally, with 10-yr yield rising by 0.015% at 1.670%,

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 121.41/121.64, EUR/USD 1.3115/1.3129, GBP/USD 1.9552/1.9570, USD/CHF 1.2382/1.2400, AUD/USD 0.7881/0.7893, NZD/USD 0.7028/0.7057.

Washington MRM 06:41 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Where are we on GBP/US$? Rising or falling?

Syd 06:31 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 06:20 GMT have noticed for a few years London close ccys will one way or another must admit was a little surprised to see the run up yesterday in Cable

HK [email protected] 06:30 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   

GOOGLING Lehman report before our eyes, combined with chart gazing on the other side.

Buy USD/YEN!!! Why? Because the chart shows a possibility for yen at 125.

As of the suggestion of buying NZD/YEN, or selling a 40% undervalued currency for a 30% overvalued one .

ME??? NO!!!

Well that model is 72% accurate.

HK [email protected] 06:24 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Low Risks for Carry Trade; Sell Yen, Swiss Franc, Lehman Says

By Ye Xie

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. says there is no immediate risk to profitably using the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc for carry trade, the strategy of borrowing low- yield currencies to invest in high-yield ones.

It suggested investors buy a combination of the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Swedish krona against the franc and yen. Currencies in Japan and Switzerland, with the lowest interest rates among industrialized countries, provide major funding for carry trade.

Lehman's model suggested a ``very low probability'' of unwinding of the yen carry trade, according to a research report published yesterday. The model has been accurate 72 percent of the time since 2001, according to the report.

``Conditions are still conducive for carry trade in the short-term,'' said David Mozina, a senior currency strategist at Lehman in New York, in an interview. ``The differentials in borrowing costs between low-yield and higher-yield currencies are too juicy.''

New York-based Lehman is the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm.

Sydney ACC 06:20 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 06:14 GMT February 23, 2007
Cable especially. There's been a bit of buying going through prior to the 4:00 pm fix in London this week, especially last night. Given we traded down to 1.9462 and spent most of London's day below 1.9500 I was surprised to see it up here. Others from the psotings here atest to a different view though.

Syd 06:14 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 06:06 GMT totally in agreement with you , just feel market a bit stretched at present and anything out of the blue could cause a reaction so a bit of caution for now a white cane wouldnt go amiss

Sydney ACC 06:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:22 GMT February 23, 2007
DJ Australian Dollar Loses Momentum; RBA Debate On Hold For Now

I quite often think Aussie is a good leading indicator for the fortunes of the big dollar. Over the last 24 hours or so AUD has started look lethargic. It has performed marvellously over the last couple of weeks. It reached its nadir qat 0.7710 on the 13th and appreciated with little retracement up to 0.7920 on 21st. Completely out of character.

Given this is Friday and nothing in the way of US data we will be exposed to the fortunes of euro to IFO and cable on the GDP figure tonight. Nontheless while admitting to some uncertainty I feel we mat trade between 0.7850 and 0.7890 tonight.

Lahore FM 05:53 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 05:48 GMT February 23, 2007
Lahore FM


Any opinions on EUR/USD?
-----------------------
drop drop seems to be the case.

Edmonton Rob 05:48 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM


Any opinions on EUR/USD?

Lahore FM 05:42 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Karachi MK 05:19 GMT February 23, 2007
the view is bearish on cable.selling 20 pips higher is good.

Lahore FM 05:42 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:32 GMT February 23, 2007
yes,certainly great.good trades to you Omil.

Lahore FM 05:41 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:55 GMT February 23, 2007
Thank you sir.it is a pleasure to read you too.it is good to be back though i would be posting comparatively less frequently.good trades!

Miami OMIL (/;-> 05:32 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Well that is a great welcome back don't you think FM? I hope you are well and good to see your comments once again. Peace and GT

Syd 05:22 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
DJ Australian Dollar Loses Momentum; RBA Debate On Hold For Now

Karachi MK 05:19 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:43 GMT February 23, 2007
Assalam O Alaikum good to hear that u r back. R U trading again if so what is ur thoughts on GBP/USD today

Edmonton Rob 05:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Any EUR/USD Longs at 1.3120? Hearing that 1.3180 is a good possibility for tomorrow

Sofia mik 04:59 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
HI Forum, wellcome Lahore
nice trading day for all !!!

Sydney ACC 04:55 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, wlecome back. A lot ofm people arounbd here, myslef, included, missed your valuable input. Hope you are well and that for whatever reason you left us was succesful for you.

Macau Sofia 04:54 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
NY RP, Sir, May I know your assessment of gold to 750-760 in next month? Thousand thanks.

Edmonton Rob 04:51 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
This market sure isnt doing anything
Any ideas?

Lahore FM 04:43 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
BAY-correction** here.

Lahore FM 04:18 GMT February 23, 2007
the great jpy unwind can disrupt quite a few things in fx though.gbpjpy down to 229.20** again for example.

usdjpy can go down Srini but isn't.still think progress higher is going to be difficult.

out till laterz.

Hyderabad Srini 04:38 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Hi..LahoreFM,

Nice to see you in the forum..your trade tips are valuable..Any hints on Gbp/$, $/Jpy...Nice trades to you..

Lahore FM 04:23 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Out for now.

USA BAY 04:21 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

GBP/JPY ---129.90??/ Thanks

Vancouver PINK 04:19 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
any thoughts on usd/jpy? will it try for resistance again or fall furthur?

Lahore FM 04:18 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CT PT 04:17 GMT February 23, 2007
yes the two i mentioned.usdchf and gbjpy.

Lahore FM 04:18 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
the great jpy unwind can disrupt quite a few things in fx though.gbpjpy down to 129.20 again for example.

CT PT 04:17 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Welcome back lahore FM...Do you have any interestng trade in mind currently?..GL/GT

Lahore FM 04:16 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Los Angeles Mojave 04:12 GMT February 23, 2007
Lolzzz...yes.looks like a sell now though think eurchf would be strong in days ahead so usdchf still a better candidate.

Lahore FM 04:13 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY,yep it was,let us see about usdchf this once.

Los Angeles Mojave 04:12 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore -- great to see your name here. welcome back. euro/usd was 2880 last time we spoke. you were buying. LOL.

USA BAY 04:12 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

WELCOME BACK. Still remember your call on usd/cad when it was trading at 1.12xx that it will be a xmas gift at 1.17xx. Indeed it was. Hope the same for usd/chf. GT/GL

Lahore FM 04:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:00 GMT February 23, 2007
SINGAPORE GFX 04:02 GMT February 23, 2007
hong kong seek 04:03 GMT February 23, 2007
Alaska Moon 04:06 GMT February 23, 2007
Many thanx,gentlemen.i am grateful!

Alaska Moon 04:06 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 03:38 GMT February 23, 2007
=====
Good to hear from you again !!! Welcome back !!
Moon

hong kong seek 04:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 03:38 GMT February 23, 2007
nice to c u back

SINGAPORE GFX 04:02 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

YES, YES, welcome back. Missed your inputs a lotttttttt. Welcome back buddy

Syd 04:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 03:38 GMT yes welcome back :-)))

Lahore FM 03:38 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 03:36 GMT February 23, 2007
am good,thanx NS dear.

Mumbai NS 03:36 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 03:21 GMT February 23, 2007

Hi how r u gud to see u gl gt

Lahore FM 03:36 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
new albany mb 03:32 GMT February
many thanx.

new albany mb 03:32 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
lahore fm--good to see you back

Lahore FM 03:21 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Looking like interesting times for USD.most interesting of all is usdchf.the imprint of USD bullishness is clearest here.
1.27 and 1.32 can be seen in matter of weeks.let us say 1.27 by mid April and 1.32 by July.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:20 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : the market is trapped in the ranges of 1.3060 // 1.3105* - 1.3166 - 1.3197 - 13227* // 1.3288.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:14 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : A projected resistant barrier is positioning at 159.97 // 160.32.

TSUN it ПОИСК 03:13 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Omaha st 02:58 GMT happycancookindekeuken 3m

Hong Kong Qindex 03:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The following is good in the Asian session.

EUR/JPY : the market is working on the barrier at 159.26 // 159.52. Projected supporting points are 158.55 and 158.90.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:04 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CHF/JPY : I would assume the market is reversing its direction when it is trading below the barrier of 97.62 // 97.87.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:58 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : When the market is trading below 121.38, the odds are high that the market will try to penetrate through the barrier at 120.64 // 121.01.

Omaha st 02:58 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
TSUN it ПОИСК 02:50 GMT February 23, 2007
why dont you focus on the kind of cigarettes you sre smoking?..harasho?

SINGAPORE GFX 02:56 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, THANKS. I have the same feeling too so flat for now. Strongly feel a correction is due on the yen pair. GT/GL

Hong Kong Qindex 02:55 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 02:47 GMT - I have a feeling that the market will suddenly reverse its direction today. Keep an eye on USD/JPY.

TSUN it ПОИСК 02:50 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
you guys dont give :To keep matters simple, we will focus upon translational kinetic energy. ...

SINGAPORE GFX 02:47 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, what is your bias for chf/jpy, down or up. thanks

Syd 02:44 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Speculative Sellers Targeting EUR/USD Support

Modest volume of EUR/USD selling from speculative names targets pair to probe support ahead of German Ifo release for February at 0900 GMT, says Singapore trader. Pair was under pressure overnight, but recovered before testing key support level, previous top of 5-week consolidation, at 1.3074 (Feb. 2 high). USD buying on inflation concerns and prospect of further dip in Ifo from record in December might be sufficient to retest that level later in global day. Dow Jones survey tips Ifo headline at 107.5 vs 107.9 in January, record high 108.7 in December.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:41 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : the market has potential to consolidate between 1.9485 - 1.9522 - 1.9559. Projected resistant points are 1.9577 and 1.9633.

Edmonton Rob 02:39 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
where would you guys recommend buying the cable tonight?

USA BAY 02:35 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
OMAHA ST,

That is not a nice thing to say. CT CRIS at least shares his opinion, but you guys dont give any but only appear to condemn others. Shame on you people.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:32 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 23:47 GMT February 22, 2007
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, could you please share your thoughts on chf/jpy, it is at its highest point in one year. tia

=======================================


CHF/JPY : The market is trying to overcome the projected resistance at 98.17*. Projected supporting points are expected at 97.17 and 97.67. Projected resistant points are positioning at 99.18 and 99.39.

CT PT 02:22 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Omaha,
I don't trade in sand...:)

Omaha st 02:21 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CT PT 02:15 GMT February 23, 2007
hey..may be you can look up CT chris,,,he is in Connecticut ...in AMMAN...runs a sand business..

CT PT 02:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Yes....

USA 02:11 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CT PT,


You mean Connecticut

CT PT 02:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
To USA Bay,
CT is in US of A.....:)

USA BAY 02:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CT PT,

PT WHERE IS CT.

NY Ed 01:52 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
CT, my feeling is 1.9535 by tonite and then makes it move

CT PT 01:50 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cable is likely to touch atleast 1.9620 by tonite & GBP/Yen will attempt towards 239 by tom morning before some retracement...just my 2 rupees...

TSUN it ПОИСК 01:48 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/Members/display_currency_data.php

NY Ed 01:48 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Not I

Edmonton Rob 01:45 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Anyone think the cable would be a good buy here? its getting up high again

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:43 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Interesting and passionate talk about the eur/gbp pair here. Looking at GEP's dare and others contradictory outlook at this pair I am compelled to trow in my two pesos in the hat.

Short term view eur/gbp: This pair is in a retracement mode with key support (6710-15) which now acts as key resistance. Further support can be found at 6685-90 and main support is around the 6645-50 area for now. It is buy on failed dips on this pair until the main support is taken out. Daily charts show us a different picture with main resistance (6770-75) rejected there is plenty of room for the indicators (they are bearish) to drop and that makes the next support (6685-90) more important for the bears. Mid term indicators are bullish but main resistance (6770-75) is still to be taken out before turning this pair bullish. Long term is still bearish with key support (6495-90) and selling signal still waiting to be tested but with indicators reaching the O/S area the bears are running out of time before a possible bounce. At this time it is best to see where the pair bounces from before buying. The numbers to watch for in the mid term are 6645-50 and 6770-75 for a better clue as where this pair is heading next IMHO. Peace and GT

NY Ed 01:39 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man do you "clean up" ALL your positions on Friday

Cannes Oil man 01:38 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Tom might be a very volatile session with people booking profits on multiple ccy's..(Particularly on the JPY)...

Then we have very tight ranges for the week (in e$ , gbp$ etc)....Once supports//Resistances break (up or down) , it might keep going ...Friday cleaning.

NY Ed 01:37 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
I'm thinking of taking a postion Cable Long @ 1.9531

Edmonton Rob 01:35 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
I think the cable has a little more to give up before it decides to Rally. are you guys thinking that 1.9650 is possible before the close tomorrow?

Cannes Oil man 01:31 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY traded up to a fresh record high of 159.62 during the New York session. The cross has not backed off since, holding at 159.48/53 at writing. Although the bias remains for further moves to the upside, this looks to be unlikely today. It is Friday and many longs will likely ot to book profits rather than take on fresh positions for a push higher. Offers ahead of presumed option barriers at 160.00, and they could be very large, should also help to keep the market from trading higher.
ifr

canmore cyclops 01:27 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
I believe we have just hit the low, or very close to it for Gbp/Usd, if we see 1.9510 then we will see 1.9460 or lower. As an absloute low I think 1.9535 is possible but unlikely. Personally i see it higher from here , just my 2 cents.

Edmonton Rob 01:22 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
No i dont think ill be shorting it. I want to get into the EUR/USD at 1.3110 or the GBP/USD at 1.9510 for a long position. Would like about 50 pips to the upside, whats everyone think?

NY Ed 01:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes, thanks for the straight talk I appreciate it...

Cannes Oil man 01:14 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo, Feb 23.
Over Reuters. With most of the cabinet voicing similar comments since the BoJ decision to hike interest rates Wednesday, the feeling in the market is that a deal with the EZ and US may actually have been hammered out at the G7 Essen meeting a fortnight ago.
---
Ms Ota says she expects the BoJ to continue to support the
current economic expansion via accommodative policy and low interest rates.

Gold Coast Martin 01:11 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:03 GMT February 23, 2007
way to go Greg...lol

USA BAY 01:08 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Pls don't do that, I am also expecting 0.6725 area as i feel eur/usd is bullish but sceptical on gbp/usd. You are one of the fellow members that I respect a lot. So pls don't do anything like that. The calculation was an example for Rob on a scenario of the price og eur/gbp before he decides to short it

Miami OMIL (/;-> 01:07 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Short term view usd/jpy: With the 121.40-50 area tested for now the stops are moved to entry point to secure capital. Now it is just house money but it is always wise to stick to the plans. Let's see if the bulls still have enough steam to test the next resistance I have commented about before. Peace and GT

Short term view eur/usd: The pair has bounced off the key support but has not cleared the range or the key resistance (3130-40). It is what I call a leaf in the wind with no purpose at this time. This is when patience is a good ally IMHO. Peace and GT

Edmonton Rob 01:07 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:58 GMT February 23, 2007

I think 1.3174 is a very possible target
Perhaps a pull back to 1.3110 or so 1st then back up there we go

Dallas GEP 01:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Tell you what, if eur/gbp DOESN'T print 6726 Before friday close, I will put myself on a one month probation from this forum. I am that certain it will happen .

Cannes Oil man 01:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
It's quite quite different for someone to trade for himself , than to be a professional/institutional.
You should talk with GV , as they for sure have more experience with trading alone(as opposed to working in the financial sector) than i do.

USA BAY 00:58 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
From the charts both eur/usd is bullish and assuming gbp/usd will go up tomorrow, imvvvvvvvho,

eur/usd target=1.3174

gbp/usd target=1.9650

eur/gbp = 1.3174/1.9650= 0.6704325699745546

Livingston nh 00:51 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
ROB- on the charts a break to eur/gbp 0.65would be mid april to early May

USA BAY 00:46 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
EDMONTON ROB,

If you want to go short, imvho do it next week, see where it closes tom.

Edmonton Rob 00:42 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   

Livingston nh 00:37 GMT February 23, 2007
Eur /GBP failed at 6750 level - it is in a s/t downtrnd

====================================

think its too late to get into a small short?
When do you forsee .6500?

Livingston nh 00:37 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Eur /GBP failed at 6750 level - it is in a s/t downtrnd

Global-View 00:27 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 00:19 GMT February 23, 2007 - contact us by EMAIL and we will give you some feedback

Syd 00:27 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
ABN AMRO prefers to sell NZD rallies "as high yield currencies are generally looking rich, and there is some risk we see a correction". Currency strategist Greg Gibbs picks key NZD/USD resistance at 0.7100, support 0.6850. Thinks RBNZ's March 8 policy statement might hold some upside risks for NZD; says there's still scope for market to be surprised by degree of hawkishness in statement.

Cannes Oil man 00:21 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
JPN ECON: Jan CSPI -0.3%m/m, +0.6%y/y; Dec Industry Index Unch

NY Ed 00:19 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
When you free up a minute can I ask you a couple of questions about Trading...I am thinking of going FullTime with it, I have done it now for about a year while running my biz..when you get a chance...Thanks

NY Ed 00:18 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man...OK are we going LONG yet....

Cannes Oil man 00:17 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Well EURGBP to .65 could also be E$ 1.32 and GBP$ 1.98.

Edmonton Rob 00:15 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 00:08 GMT February 23, 2007
EUR is unsustainable - EUR/GBP 0.65 is the target

=====================================

This is very very interesting, thats a huge drop from current levels. What makes you think there will be a 200 pip drop? and what kind of time frame are you anticipating?

USA BAY 00:10 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
EDMONTON ROB,

I am only guessing but I feel by tom close or soonner

Edmonton Rob 00:08 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:02 GMT February 23, 2007
USD/JPY ; targets @ 121.28 & 121.15, SHORT BELOW 121.67

==================================
Those are nice targets from present levels. What kinda time frame do you see?

Livingston nh 00:08 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
EUR is unsustainable - EUR/GBP 0.65 is the target

Dallas GEP 00:03 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
Bay, no i don't think it will go much lower than it is currently. it is trapped in a very narrow range recently and I expect that to continue. roughly 6700-6730

USA BAY 00:02 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY ; targets @ 121.28 & 121.15, SHORT BELOW 121.67

London AH 00:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
sitting on the fence

USA BAY 00:00 GMT February 23, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Range Top: 0.6760/65 (200 Day SMA)
-Range Bottom: 0.6665 (100 Day SMA, 38.2% Fib)
0.6695 (50.0% Fib)


Do you think that it may go to 0.6665 before going up. I was also thinking of going long at 0.6700. Thanks

 




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