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Forex Forum Archive for 02/25/2007

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SINGAPORE GFX 23:59 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Could you please comment on nzd/usd and nzd/jpy. Thanks a million

Sydney ACC 23:56 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:47 GMT February 25, 2007
By way of comparison the trade deficit per person:
USA = USD 2,543
NZ = NZD 1,459

London AH 23:54 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
diificult to say .Sterling trend is up and have a bit left to next resistance level. Just have to wait for some fresh news.

Edmonton Rob 23:54 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 23:49 GMT February 25, 2007

Currently it seems like its having a hard time cracking 1.9650 with any luck it gives up and drops down to 1.9615/20

Im in a short right now and am unsure if it was the best move, but if a pull back is possible maybe ill hold

Syd 23:52 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
IMM data show net long EUR position built to record 99,326 contracts from 83,795 previously

Washington MRM 23:49 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 23:40 GMT February 25, 2007

I think the ability of it to pull back to 1.9615 depends on the early action. If 1.9650 holds, I think likelyhood is very good in the three to five hour range. Then, I look to Europe open to push it higher again.

Syd 23:47 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Trade seesaw could leave sterling exposed

£84.3 billion is a lot of money. It means, for every man, woman and child in the UK, imports of goods exceed exports by more than £1,400. Not much of that was due to oil, which was in deficit last year but only by £3.7 billion.

LINK

Edmonton Rob 23:47 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   

Washington MRM 23:44 GMT February 25, 2007

Ill be covering my short at 1.9644 and then re-evaluating the cable

Washington MRM 23:44 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:39 GMT February 25, 2007

I fear that the bottom is here and that I will lose out on some of the move upward... but I am hoping for a pullback to 1.9615. I think that it is appropriate to be cautious here as 1.9680 should also be a slight resistance level. If it surpasses that, we might see a slow move up to the recent 1.99 highs.

London AH 23:44 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
hope not today....

Edmonton Rob 23:40 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 23:37 GMT February 25, 2007

when do u think we'll see 1.9615?

London AH 23:40 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
GP resistance at 9676, might be difficult to beat.

Edmonton Rob 23:39 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
my cable short didnt go so well :(

NY Ed 23:39 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM... you see the bottoms HERE 9645 +/- ??
How was your weekend??

Washington MRM 23:37 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Hello all. Hope the weekend treated everyone ok.

Looking to buy GBP/US$ around 1.9615 for ride to 1.9710. Someone seems to be selling here for now, but the bottom has been put in too. So, like EUR/US$, buying on dips is preferred strategy for me.

gl/gt

Edmonton Rob 23:33 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:30 GMT February 25, 2007
Buying Euro on dips is the preferred strategy.


where do u project the Euro at? think we'll crack 1.3200 tonight?

UK Alex 23:30 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Buying Euro on dips is the preferred strategy.

Edmonton Rob 23:28 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
1.3180 anyone think the Euro is looking good for a small short?

NY Ed 23:26 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
.

Syd 23:13 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Household Financial Assets May Help Stimulate Econ: BOJ's Fukui

TOKYO (Nikkei)--The effective use of household financial assets may play a key role in invigorating the domestic economy, Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Sunday at an economic symposium sponsored by Nikkei Inc.

Edmonton Rob 23:13 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:11 GMT February 25, 2007

whats your target

NY Ed 23:11 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob...yes...but VERY short and VERY quick

Edmonton Rob 23:10 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:08 GMT February 25, 2007
Edmonton Rob...I don't understand

the short you've put in a place, is it a short term trade for a quick scalp

UK Alex 23:09 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
http://www.economicsuk.com/blog/

NY Ed 23:08 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob...I don't understand

Edmonton Rob 23:07 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:04 GMT February 25, 2007

short term quick scalp kinda short?

NY Ed 23:04 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
I have a Short position in @ 9643

Edmonton Rob 23:03 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 23:00 GMT February 25, 2007

think the cable might start giving up some of these gains now?

NY Ed 23:02 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob... better than I hoped, 12 pips I'm out

NY Ed 23:00 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob... me too, but I see that there is a chance to take a quick 10 pips

Vancouver PINK 22:55 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Anyone thinking Kiwi is going to fall a bit?

Edmonton Rob 22:48 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 22:45 GMT February 25, 2007

Nothing wrong with a good scalp :)

I hate how sluggish the market is on Sunday Afternoons, theres really no action but i like to study it anyways

NY Ed 22:45 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob....no question that's possible, but this early I am looking to possible scalp a bit, 9550 is absolutely a good entry actually RE ENTRY

Edmonton Rob 22:43 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 22:37 GMT February 25, 2007

Whats your target to sell this bad boy? 1.9700 would be nice but im not sure if its gonna get there before i goes down i read that 1.9550 is possible

NY Ed 22:37 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob... I am in right now but if you have a patient mind 9631 is probably target

Edmonton Rob 22:36 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 22:09 GMT February 25, 2007

Not long cable yet, but it looks temping not sure what a good entry point would be for it

Syd 22:24 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Andrew Bell, European Strategist at Rensburg Sheppards CNBC Market Outlook says , outstanding in the market real trade weight exchange rate of the Yen is 40-50yr lows sooner or later its going to correct.

NY Ed 22:10 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
MAC, Soch & RSI all point up , I know this is meaningless, but it's something

NY Ed 22:10 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
So I will be the first today to say I am LONG @ open, quick scalp or a sad SL

NY Ed 22:09 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Evening All, anyone venture into the Cable today. All reports over the weekend suggest a stronger Pound , for at least today, until reports come out later this week.

Syd 21:48 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
NZ's Jan Goods Trade Deficit NZ$833M; Consensus -NZ$696M
NZ's Jan Imports NZ$3.308 Bln; Exports NZ$2.475 Bln
NZ 12-Mos To Jan Trade Deficit NZ$6.032B;Expected -NZ$5.995B

Syd 21:37 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD to complete its corrective sequence around 0.7935
Sun, 25 Feb 2007 20:04:07 GMT
Aussie was supported at 0.7880 on Friday and only late in the day did it manage to rally to a new high at 0.7925. This rise is in a terminal stage and it should peak today near 0.7935 today. A drop back to 0.7825 should follow. The top forming today should also complete the corrective sequence from 0.7695. The drop to 0.7825 is likely to be just the first leg of the next decline to 0.7540 and possibly 0.7410 to complete the broader downward retracement from 0.7983. Only a strong rise through 0.7940 will suggest that a new rally to break 0.7983 is unfolding.

Kiwi drifted a little higher on Friday and should continue higher today to rise through January’s 0.7100 high by a few points and perhaps complete its sequence from 0.6765.

Dollar/Canada made a close near the low of the week for the third consecutive time last week, increasing the odds for further declines. But on Friday Dollar/Canada could not maintain the downward momentum as prices eased through the mvg avg. Expect some upward action this week, to 1.1630 and possibly to 1.1710.
TheChartManager




dc CB 21:28 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
CD. 1 year view

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$cdw&p=D&yr=0&mn=14&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

dc CB 21:22 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
fwi: US day session view of JPY.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$xjy&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

Makassar Alimin 21:03 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 20:54 GMT February 25, 2007

if that is the case, then everyone would be making money and happy, but market does not work like that, just when everyone think it will do one thing, it does the opposite...so expect the unexpected, keep an open mind

Edmonton Rob 20:54 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 20:23 GMT February 25, 2007

Everyones projections in this forum seem to have pegged the EUR and Pound higher. From what ive read it looks like there might be alot of dollar bearish news comming out this week. I could see the Euro cracking 1.3200 easily this week and perhaps the pound getting over 1.9700 or more. But thats my opinion im by no means an expert

RIC fxq 20:23 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 18:58 GMT

Reasons for that?

Edmonton Rob 18:58 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Mandeville 18:51 GMT February 25, 2007

It looks like it will be a very weak week for the US $

Mandeville 18:51 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Sunday Feb 25


what will USD / JPY do this week ?



GVI john 16:12 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Mon, Feb 26, 2007
05:00 JA- BOJ Minutes (Jan 17-18)
GE- Feb CPI (this week)
07:00 GE- Mar Gfk
15:00 EZ- Jan M3

Tue, Feb 27, 2007
07:00 GE- Jan CPI
09:00 EZ- Jan M3 (Money Supply)
13:30 US- Jan Durable Goods (see -3.0% vs. +2.9% Dec)
15:00 US- Feb Cons Conf (see 108.7 vs. 110.3 in Jan)
15:00 US- Jan Existing Home Sales (see 6.24mln vs. 6.22mln in Dec)

Wed, Feb 28, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan Prelim IP
23:50 JA- Jan Retail Sales
09:00 GE- Jan Employment
10:00 EZ- Jan unemplyment
10:00 EZ- Feb Bus/Cons Confidence
10:00 EZ- Jan HICP
CHART

10:00 EZ- Jan unemployment rare
10:30 CH- Feb KOF Indicator
13:30 US- 4Q06 GDP (see +2.3% vs. +3.5%)
15:00 US- Fed Chicago PMI (see 50.0 vs. 48.8)
15:00 US- Jan New Home Sales (see 1.08mln vs. 1.12mln in Dec)
15:30 US- Weekly Energy

Thu, Mar 1, 2007
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Capex
09:00 EZ/GE- Feb mfg PMI
09:30 UK- Feb mfg PMI
10:00 EZ- Feb HICP (flash)
CHART

13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 325,000 vs. 332,000)
13:30 US- Jan PI see +0.3% vs. +0.5%, core-PCE +0.2% vs. +0.1%)
CHART

13:30 CA- 4Q06 BOP
13:30 CA- Jan IPPI
15:30 US- Natural Gas
15:00 US- Jan Construction Spending (see -0.5% vs. -0.4%)
15:00 US- Feb Mfg ISM (see 50.0 vs. 49.3 Jan)

Fri, Mar 2, 2007
23:30 JA- Jan CPI
CHART

23:30 JA- Jan Unemployment
00:30 AU- Jan Retail Sales
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Current Acount
07:00 GE- Jan Retail Seles
10:00 EZ- Feb PPI
12:30 GE- Jan Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Dec GDP
15:00 US- Feb U of M Sentiment (see 93.5 vs. 93.3 Feb prelim)

PAR 15:58 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Why would the Yuan and other asian currencies that aren t free floating appreciate while all other , supposed to be free trading asian currencies depreciate. How can Paulson ask China to revaluate the Yuan while at the same time encouraging Japan to devalue the Yen in order to finance the american deficits.

HK [email protected] 10:26 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Curency Outlook


Mixed sentiments over the Swiss franc


Peter Calleya

Swiss National Bank chairman Jean-Pierre Roth lately stated the weakness of the Swiss franc (CHF) is going against sound economic fundamentals, in part due to market exuberance. He also threatened to take monetary policy action if he saw a tendency of price increases.

Furthermore, on the subject of exuberance, he went on to say that there was a very low price for risk and warned that volatility could return. In a sense, Mr Roth argued that a weak CHF is inconsistent with a dynamic and growing economy.

He also suggested that the potential growth rate may be higher than the previous estimate of 1.5%. In conclusion the CHF was at odds with strong Swiss growth.

However, not everyone concurs with this view. The CHF weakness could be here to stay for some time, especially since inflation is running at a mere 0.1% on a year earlier and the ability to mimic rate hikes from the ECB is being curtailed.

There are several issues to be noted about the CHF. The first of these relates to how well the Swiss economy is doing. Secondly, risk-loving behaviour may be high but has not changed for around two years and thus cannot explain current CHF weakness. Thirdly, and most importantly, structural changes to the global economy are seeing volatility fall and opening up opportunities in the fast growing Emerging Markets (EM) world. This type of stable environment thus favours selling low interest rate currencies, such as the CHF and Japanese yen.

It is well known that the CHF is one of the best safe haven currencies. Its equity market is packed with defensive stocks (banks, pharmaceuticals and food producers), it has a massive current account surplus and is a low inflation economy.

So when risk aversion rises, the CHF in aggregate tends to rise. There is no doubt that the risk-loving behaviour that occurred after the US downturn in 2002 was behind the CHF's decline against the euro. Therefore, the idea that the CHF is suffering because the market is being irrationally exuberant is not borne out by a measure of risk.

It is highly probable that there are other factors aside from the under-pricing of risk that is driving the CHF down.

Mr Roth has claimed that the rise in the currency is not consistent with the Swiss economy's growth. Before getting involved in the relative merits of the Swiss economy, it is worth putting the CHF's macro direction into perspective.

In essence, the domestic economy is not what drives the currency. Looking at the relationship between Swiss GDP and the CHF, it is found that a strengthening economy in Switzerland is associated with a weaker currency. This is because the Swiss economy is a function of growth elsewhere.

In other words, when there is strong growth in the euro area or the US, the Swiss economy benefits. However, as the Swiss economy benefits, it also means the market is more optimistic about global growth and therefore finds the investment opportunities elsewhere more attractive. And as risk aversion shrinks, the market turns its back on the CHF.

On the other hand, as world growth crumbles, the Swiss economy does poorly, but it is exactly at this point the market is attracted to the safe haven properties of the CHF.

Many countries' growth and inflation rates have become more convergent. These better economic conditions, together with better and more transparent central banking, are seeing stability being injected into financial markets.

In addition, central banks have built up a massive amount of reserves for precautionary reasons. It is also worth noting that within the emerging market sphere there is no longer the asset and liability mismatch.

This is because these countries no longer have to issue US dollar-denominated debt and are now issuing more local bonds instead. This change to the EM space is borne out by lower credit spreads and lower volatility in the foreign exchange markets.

If this optimistic turn of macro events in EM is to persist, the CHF will be hit twice and hit hard. Firstly, there is very little demand for its safe haven properties at a time of global expansion - particularly while EM are doing so well.

Secondly, in this low volatility world the carry trade should continue to take on a life of its own. In other words, there is no reason why these new and exciting markets will continue to be financed out of the most stable low interest rate environments. Due to Japan's even lower interest rate environment, this trade has taken place mainly through the Japanese yen

Despite Mr Roth's comments, there is very little the CHF authorities can do about its weakness. The Swiss National Bank could always raise interest rates, but with inflation at a mere 0.6% and an economy that looks to have turned for the worse, this would seem unlikely.

The Swiss National Bank may follow the ECB in the interest rate hiking cycle but that would still leave the rate differential with the euro area unchanged. Although the US economy has slowed down, volatility remains low, the EM environment looks secure and the euro area economy looks set to slow but not dramatically so.

While these conditions persist, the CHF's weakness is likely to continue, regardless of the performance of the Swiss economy.

This report was compiled by Peter Calleya, manager, Corporate Strategy and Research, HSBC Bank Malta plc, on the basis of economic research and financial information produced by HSBC International Bank.

Syd 07:57 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Faces Worst Terror Threat Since 9/11 -Report
The threat of homegrown terrorists attacking the U.K. is greater now than any time since the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks on the U.S., a U.K. Sunday newspaper reported, citing a leaked intelligence document.

More than 2,000 U.K.-based Islamic terrorists are believed to be plotting attacks, according to a government threat assessment prepared this month that The Sunday Telegraph said it had seen.

"The scale of al-Qaida's ambitions toward attacking the U.K. and the number of U.K. extremists prepared to participate in attacks are even greater than we previously judged," the newspaper quoted the document as saying.

It said the document was being circulated between the Home Office, defense ministry, MI5 intelligence agency and Scotland Yard's Anti-Terrorist Branch.

The Home Office declined to comment on the report, but said in a statement that security arrangements are under constant review.

"As (MI5 Director-General) Eliza Manningham-Buller has stated publicly, the threat of terrorism in the U.K. is very real and includes the intent to kill people and damage our economy," the statement said.

Manningham-Buller said in November that 1,600 people were suspected of involvement in terrorist plots against U.K. targets.

Four suicide bombers killed 52 commuters in the July 2005 transit attacks in London and security officials say they have foiled at least six other plots. Officials expect the number of plots to increase this year, the newspaper said

Auckland peat 05:13 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
Elliotwave.com is saying of Eur/Jpy
"That's a so-called ending diagonal triangle. They always appear in the final, fifth waves."

Hong Kong Qindex 03:24 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : A consolidating range is located at [0.7836] - [0.7903]. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 0.7903. A projected supporting level is located at 0.7800 - 0.7809. A projected resistant level is expected at 0.7974 - 0.7989.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:06 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Consolidating ranges are located at [1.1562] - [1.1590] and [1.1639] - [1.1690]. A projected supporting level is located at 1.1468 - 1.1471*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.1713* - 1.1730*.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:45 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : My cycle references indicate that [1.2296] - [1.2492] a consolidating range. A supporting level is located at 1.2204 - 1.2238. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.2556 - 1.2567.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:25 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : My cycle references indicate that [1.9508] - [1.9634] is a consolidating range. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.9643. A projected resistant level is located at 1.9755 - 1.9768. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.9433 - 1.9441.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:43 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : My cycle references indicate that the market is going to consolidate between [1.3138] - [1.3226]. Projected supporting range are expected at 1.3071* - 1.3081 and 1.3116* - 1.3119*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.3303 - 1.3313*.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:15 GMT February 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : My cycle references indicates that [120.93] - [121.35] is a critical level. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 119.59* - 119.62. On the other hand speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 122.26* - 122.31*

 




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