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Forex Forum Archive for 02/26/2007

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USA BAY 23:47 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
AUCKLAND PEAT,

Seems nzd/usd should form a double top at 0.7100 and there fore should go to 0.6769 levels but kiwi is so unpredictable may shoot to 0.7202 before going down. Please feel free to comment

Auckland peat 23:42 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Bay
I dont trade it anymore. too volatile for me.
I always perceive AUD as more robust than Kiwi (fundamentally stronger economy )but as you can see this is irrelevant over last 7 months. Whenever there are cries of parity for NZD with AUD tho you know it is time to short kiwi.

Philadelphia Caba 23:23 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
just wondering where gmc chameleon is catching his levels and turning points now ... esp. in kiwi and aussie..

Napoli DC 23:16 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
also see volatility picking up
and now really going to bed
glgt

USA BAY 23:16 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
AUCKLAND PEAT,

What is your view on aud/nzd. Thanks

Napoli DC 23:12 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
tks Peat

Cannes Oil man 23:11 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
OTTAWA mjw 21:56 GMT February 26, 2007

It's always possible to see a spike..
7020/50 still likely , though atm it's being relentless stop eating monster i am very fond of.
gl gt

St. Annaland Bob 23:10 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:15 GMT February 26, 2007

looks like USDJPY @ 120.35/65 long with stop below 120.25 may play nice for the next 24-48 hours ... same time for same time frame going long EURJPY may play also nicely ... trade happy and safe


*** out of both longs here, happy trades and good rest

Napoli DC 23:08 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Vesuvio's closing his eyes
off
goodnight to those asleep
good trades to those awaken

auckland peat 23:06 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
I've only seen (Auckland) trotter post in the NZ evenings. Its midday here now

Napoli DC 22:58 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Trotter, are ya around?

Edmonton Rob 22:53 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Napoli DC 22:51 GMT February 26, 2007

well 1.9600 would be enough for me at this point

Napoli DC 22:51 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
like cable, euro broke downtrend from november highs and is heading north
Apart from small divergences, i can't see real signals of a near correction

Edmonton Rob 22:47 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
well 1.9515 would make me alot of money if it happens lets hope so

Napoli DC 22:43 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Rob
9570 - 9600 could be well supported,
anyway cable sometimes surprises
glgt

USA BAY 22:37 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
EDMONTON ROB,

GBP/JPY is still downtrend. target maybe 235.8 and usd/jpy target 120.21 so gbp/usd, 1.9515.

Edmonton Rob 22:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   

USA BAY 22:21 GMT February 26, 2007

I went short at 1.9627 i hope it doesnt bite me in the butt

USA BAY 22:21 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Long positions above 1.9607 with targets @ 1.9647 & 1.966 in extension
Below 1.96075 look for further downside with 1.9583 & 1.9558 as targets.

LKWD JJ 22:17 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
the most recent range was 194-196 so if it was broken to the upside, i would expect more movement away from range before a retest of resistance turned support as it has only been one day plus the breakout. but the daily range in cable is 120-140 on avg with today being a slow one (53)

Edmonton Rob 21:58 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Anyone think we will see 1.9600 in the GBP/USD over night?

OTTAWA mjw 21:56 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
cannes oilman

do you see nzd/$ testing 7040 area before moving up? wait for money suppy # to come out , before longing at 7090 area thank you for your views on this...

Syd 21:36 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Political problems mount for Ahmadinejad
As world powers seek new ways to put pressure on Iran, Sadegh Zibakalam, professor of politics at Tehran University, looks at how much popular support President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has at home.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6396873.stm

Gen dk 21:25 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI john 21:22 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3184	120.56	1.2293	1.9641	1.1601	0.7939	158.95
High	1.3199	121.11	1.2330	1.9662	1.1608	0.7941	159.58
Low	1.3151	120.35	1.2288	1.9609	1.1578	0.7910	158.62
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/26/2007					
5 day 	1.3151	120.79	1.2349	1.9587	1.1621	0.7904	158.87
10 day	1.3133	120.40	1.2364	1.9552	1.1632	0.7875	158.13
20 day 	1.3061	120.68	1.2415	1.9583	1.1721	0.7816	157.63
50 day 	1.3042	120.23	1.2385	1.9584	1.1714	0.7830	156.81
100 day	1.2974	118.86	1.2363	1.9379	1.1548	0.7779	154.22
200 day	1.2849	117.37	1.2364	1.9027	1.1370	0.7651	150.83

GVI john 21:20 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Tue, Feb 27, 2007
07:00 GE- Jan CPI
09:00 EZ- Jan M3 (Money Supply)
15:00 US- Feb Cons Conf (see 108.7 vs. 110.3 in Jan)
15:00 US- Jan Existing Home Sales (see 6.24mln vs. 6.22mln in Dec)

Wed, Feb 28, 2007
23:50 JA- Jan Prelim IP
23:50 JA- Jan Retail Sales
09:00 GE- Jan Employment
10:00 EZ- Jan unemplyment
10:00 EZ- Feb Bus/Cons Confidence
10:00 EZ- Jan HICP
CHART

10:00 EZ- Jan unemployment rare
10:30 CH- Feb KOF Indicator
13:30 US- 4Q06 GDP (see +2.3% vs. +3.5%)
15:00 US- Fed Chicago PMI (see 50.0 vs. 48.8)
15:00 US- Jan New Home Sales (see 1.08mln vs. 1.12mln in Dec)
15:30 US- Weekly Energy

Thu, Mar 1, 2007
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Capex
09:00 EZ/GE- Feb mfg PMI
09:30 UK- Feb mfg PMI
10:00 EZ- Feb HICP (flash)
CHART

13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 325,000 vs. 332,000)
13:30 US- Jan PI see +0.3% vs. +0.5%, core-PCE +0.2% vs. +0.1%)
CHART

13:30 CA- 4Q06 BOP
13:30 CA- Jan IPPI
15:30 US- Natural Gas
15:00 US- Jan Construction Spending (see -0.5% vs. -0.4%)
15:00 US- Feb Mfg ISM (see 50.0 vs. 49.3 Jan)

Fri, Mar 2, 2007
23:30 JA- Jan CPI
CHART

23:30 JA- Jan Unemployment
00:30 AU- Jan Retail Sales
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Current Acount
07:00 GE- Jan Retail Seles
10:00 EZ- Feb PPI
12:30 GE- Jan Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Dec GDP
15:00 US- Feb U of M Sentiment (see 93.5 vs. 93.3 Feb prelim)

Washington MRM 21:11 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:04 GMT February 26, 2007

So you think GBP/US$ up from here? Or, more of these dull ranges?

Charlotte TH 21:11 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 21:30 GMT February 22, 2007
small short added to previous gbpjpy shorts at 236 and lower 237 at 237.72 now.

-----------------------------------------------------
closed short from 237.72 at 236.80 for 92 pips.keeping others for lower targets at 235 area.

LKWD JJ 21:04 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
WASH MRM sign of a strong trend when mkt doesnt budge after big move fri.but today i think gbpjpy is hurting gbp from gaining vs usd.

Washington MRM 20:58 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Out of short at 1.9641 for measly 5 pips. Better than nothing.

Syd 20:27 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (AFX) - Six world powers will meet again on Thursday by telephone to try to thrash out which elements to include in a new tougher UN Security Council resolution on Iran, the US State Department said.Policy chiefs of the US, British, Russian, Chinese, French and German foreign ministries just finished a meeting which Britain said was productive."They will meet again via telephone on Thursday, at which time they hope to be able to hammer out the elements of a UN sanctions resolution," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said."Coming out of this meeting, they have agreed on the fact that they will go forward with a UN sanctions resolution," he added.

Syd 20:23 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
corroborate an Iranian claim that it fired a rocket into space and suspects that the event never happened, a US defense official said.

Iranian space officials said Sunday they launched a "sounding rocket" into space for research purposes, reaching an altitude of 150 kilometers. They said the rocket did not go into orbit.

"We have no indication that that's true," a US defense official told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Nothing we've come up with would indicate that's happened."

The official said it was highly unlikely that such a space shot would have gone undetected by the North American Aerospace Defense Command, which monitors missile launches worldwide.
"Even our training launches are recorded," the official said. "There was nothing on this one."

"The intelligence assessments points to that the event didn't happen," the official said.

Washington MRM 20:16 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 20:06 GMT February 26, 2007

I am only short small. Not risking anything and will look to close. With so much data out in the US this week, there is not much interest today. I don't think there is much risk going short here for 10-15 pips.

Syd 20:12 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Euro-zone finance ministers ended their monthly meeting Monday with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, and meeting chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said the euro zone's inflation rate should fall below 2% this year.
EU's Juncker:Forex Should Reflect Japan Economy Improvements . Warns Against Too Much Currency Volatility

NYC Ed 20:06 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM...You are HOW short... I won't be that brave so close to close, but I still like LONG.

Cannes Oil man 20:05 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NZD has finally broken above .71..The big shuffle has indeed picked up steam..A few days for the first .7230 target still needed...Then probably one week consolidation , followed by the .7400 target.

Washington MRM 20:00 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 19:54 GMT February 26, 2007

Yes took a long time. Would like it to fall back down there so we can re-load at lower levels. Hopefully it won't take very long so my short can make up some pips in the mean time.

Edmonton Rob 20:00 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Anyone think we'll see 1.9600 in the cable today? Ive gone short, not 100% sure if that was a smart move since its heading upwards all of a sudden

Sofia mik 19:59 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
short euro ..83

Cannes Oil man 19:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 17:01 GMT February 26, 2007
oilman, you don't like to post anymore?

OTTAWA mjw 13:31 GMT February 26, 2007
cannesoilman, iam looking to long $/cad would you have any views on this? at these levels , thanks for any input..

--
$/CAD down probably in a few month making a new all time low.
---
When you ask a question , put Oil man (Mind the space) , otherwise i don't see the question.
--
$CHF Down..As E$ goes to 1.34 , $CHF has no other choices but to make a new low.

gl gt

NYC Ed 19:54 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM....I am not short, but look how long it took you and I to make the pips...

Washington MRM 19:50 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Short small GBP/US$ at 1.9641.

Got rid of my longs a couple minutes too soon.

Lahore FM 19:39 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Napoli DC 19:35 GMT February 26, 2007
many thanx,DC.

Napoli DC 19:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
FM,
very glad to see you again
missed you on the forum

Edmonton Rob 19:26 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 19:10 GMT February 26, 2007

I didnt read it correctly i thought he said buying GBP/USD was good

Lahore FM 19:10 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Patra alex 19:06 GMT February 26, 2007
Alex think longs will work well on the two.

Charlotte TH 19:10 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 18:57 GMT February 26, 2007
Bangkok bkk 18:46 GMT February 26, 2007
Buying EUR/GBP should be a good idea also, at the current price, :)

======================================

Wow some mixed signals there eh? LOL

*****************************

Why is that a mixed signal? He believes eurusd will go up as gbpusd goes down. That means eurgbp will go up a lot if he is correct.

Patra alex 19:06 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM,

Can I please have your view regarding USD/CHF and GBP/CHF?

Thank you.

Edmonton Rob 18:57 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 18:46 GMT February 26, 2007
Buying EUR/GBP should be a good idea also, at the current price, :)

======================================

Wow some mixed signals there eh? LOL

Bangkok bkk 18:46 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Buying EUR/GBP should be a good idea also, at the current price, :)

Charlotte TH 18:44 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
A tokyo open below 9572 for gbpusd can really accelerate the whole usd bunch into strengh.

Bangkok bkk 18:44 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD and GBP/USD may move in different direction this week....

Sofia mik 18:40 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Haifa,send plane over Iran &shake the fx market& donot forget Libia...

CT Cris 18:34 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd will rise till 19635-40 then decline to 19610-00 during the coming asian.

Bangkok bkk 18:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 18:18 GMT

Yes,.. holding short GBP/USD early this week. Looking for 1.9430/440 target for this week.

CT Cris 18:31 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd sell @ 19640-30 tp 19600.

Bangkok bkk 18:28 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 18:20 GMT February 26, 2007

GBP/USD: Buying = No thanks. Short-term(2-3 days) = Collapse.

However, medium/longer term still Bullish against USD. For now, still holding short GBP/USD. If you can place 200 - 300 pips stop loss, it will be ok for you MRM, to buy GBP now, testing above 2.0000 is possible for GBP/USD in the near future.

Washington MRM 18:20 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 18:10 GMT February 26, 2007

That is quite a statement, especially since a pretty solid bottom trend was formed over last couple weeks. What are you basing it on?

Edmonton Rob 18:18 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 18:10 GMT February 26, 2007

Would you be going short here?

Bangkok bkk 18:18 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   

For EUR/USD strategy:

Still looking to buy on dip.... a quick pull back towards 1.3135/145 is possible. The time is running out and dollar weakness can return unexpectedly as the long term upward trend in EUR/USD regains control of the situation.

Gen dk 18:16 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bangkok bkk 18:10 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD buying is quite risky this week.

All GBP long position 7-10 days ago from those big sharks have been closed out already.

GBP is going to drop like a water fall tomorrow or until the end of the week.....FWIW

RIC fxq 18:03 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 17:54 GMT

Blanchflower was on the wires at 1730 (AFX) but the recent downleg began around 1550 so the reaction was well in place.

Lahore FM 17:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
from GVI:

GVI Jay 17:31 GMT February 26, 2007
Blanchflower making dovish comments but known as most dovish member of MPC

Washington MRM 17:54 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Might be a good opportunity to buy more GBP/US$ down here as it has been pushed to lows. I take it the move was on Blanchflower's comments, despite the fact that he is a noted dove and voted against the previous rate hikes.

PAR 17:40 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Looks like Yen and Yuan story are increasingly interconnected. As EURJPY has been constantly making new highs, JPYCNY has been constantly making new lows . Maybe China can offer solution on carry trades .

warsaw TOMi 17:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
yeah, got ya ab, cu tom 8)

hk ab 17:27 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
One might be interestd to take a look of all 1hr chart on yen crosses at the moment, time for bed, see you all tomorrow.

Edmonton Rob 17:26 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
what i ment was long USD/JPY

Haifa ac 17:25 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:14 GMT //Yup.
It is just a gnawing feeling that the rubberband has been stretched way too far one way and bound to bounce back.
Gut feeling mostly.

hk ab 17:23 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
TOMi, ninja the profit already at the blasted stop @31.

warsaw TOMi 17:19 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
ab where is yr target on chf? am also long 2303.

hk ab 17:07 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
fc, the chf just hit 31 bid.......

hk ab 17:01 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
oilman, you don't like to post anymore?

Edmonton Rob 17:01 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Good place to go long YEN here at 120.75?

PAR 16:58 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Instead of carry trades unwinding USDJPY will be making key reversal to the upside . China can not revalue the Yuan if Yen and other asian currencies keep depreciating .

madrid mm 16:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Smaller moves are more frequent than larger ones - Even during relatively quiet markets there are many small movements that a scalper can exploit.

timing is everything.

hk ab 16:53 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
btw, Revdax, Jones work again.

hk ab 16:51 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 13:48 GMT February 26, 2007

Sam, I hope to see your elaboration on that. TIA.

Washington MRM 16:42 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Long more GBP/US$ at 1.9617.

hk ab 16:38 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
look like another paint dry day. Ninja the profit after some stops hit. Sleep is the key.

Toronto ¥ € $ 16:38 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   


Can anyone share their two cents on NZD/USD?

hk ab 16:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
stop move up to entry.

hk ab 16:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
nt, what's your view on chf and eur"?

hk ab 16:31 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
but dlr/jpy is still in uncertainty.

hk ab 16:30 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
some weak shorts in dlr/chf shoudl be cleaned out very soon.

NYC Ed 16:12 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM... I am in @ 34 I am looking for about the same 15, I have a Sell in @ 45...Every step up, is two pullback. and for NO reason today...

Washington MRM 16:10 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed

I think that 1.9650 may be seen, but there appears to be little action to push it higher or lower. I still prefer buying dips. I am long GBP/US$ here at 1.9632, hoping for 15-20 pips by end of day. Seems like there is little interest.

hk ab 16:09 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
gold will blast again soon together with dlr/jpy. tandem friends.

NYC Ed 15:51 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Hi Guys do you think we see 9650 today and North on Cable

madrid mm 15:51 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Pressburg 15:30 GMT February 26, 2007

yes and no.
It depends of many factors, Such as -
-size of the options
-market sentiments, ie bullish, bearish, neutral
-numbers of players
-who the players are
etc....

IMHO
I seem to remember that big options are normally more @ round numbers, ie 1.3200, 1.3250 etc

UK Alex 15:50 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Pressburg 15:39 GMT February 26, 2007
In short, yes. Bear in mind that buyers of options will also be trying to be get them to expire in-the-money and this can cause some sharp currency movements too.

Pressburg 15:39 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:35 GMT
I do understand (at least I think I do) why someone protects his option. My question is, what happens, if that option expires, does that simply mean, that restistance/support towards those levels does not have to be defended so wildly any longer and price can more easily move through it ?

lugano fc 15:39 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
long gbpusd stop 9605

Hong Kong Qindex 15:38 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:45 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/CHF : My cycle references indicate that [1.2296] - [1.2492] a consolidating range.

Doha Tom 15:37 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Is NZD overbrought.Will we see a pullback against the dollar.

lugano fc 15:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
short usdchf stop 31

UK Alex 15:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Pressburg 15:30 GMT February 26, 2007
Look what happened to Euro/USD on Thursday last week. It was rumoured that a 1.3050 put option was being defended by an Asian bank.

hk ab 15:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
yen party is over and return to where it was.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:32 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The consolidating range is [235.49] - [235.66] - [237.09] - [239.20]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 235.49. Projected supporting points are located at 231.25 - 231.37 and 233.12 - 233.37. A projected resistant level is expected at 240.37 - 240.50.

Pressburg 15:30 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Madrid mm,
thanks for that.
One more question though, is there any direct reaction in FX market upon expiry of these kind of options ?
Thanks.

hk ab 15:29 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
small dlr/chf atm stop 1.2284.

hk ab 15:27 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
sam//wonder how you get that 1.2150 target, any reason? now 1.24 more likely?

madrid mm 15:25 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
A type of exotic option that gives an investor an agreed upon payout if the price of the underlying asset does not reach or surpass one of two predetermined barrier levels. An investor using this type of option pays a premium to his/her broker and in turn receives the right to choose the position of the barriers, the time to expiration, and the payout to be received if the price fails to breach either barrier. With this type of option, the maximum possible loss is just the cost of setting up the option.

A double no-touch option is the opposite of a double one-touch option.

Investopedia Says... This type of option is useful for a trader who believes that the price of an underlying asset will remain rangebound over a certain period of time. Double no-touch options are growing in popularity among traders in the forex markets.

For example, assume that the current USD/EUR rate is 1.20 and the trader believes that this rate will not change dramatically over the next 14 days. The trader could use a double no-touch option with barriers at 1.19 and 1.21 to capitalize on this outlook. In this case, the trader stands to make a profit if the rate fails to move beyond either of the two barriers.

Pressburg 15:16 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
What exactly does it mean for FX, if someone says, that option structure DNT 1,28/1,32 will expire in today's NY cut ?
Can anyone comment pls ?
Thanks a lot.

UK Alex 15:14 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:04 GMT February 26, 2007
The latest I heard was of an option at 1.3175 Euro/USD.

hk ab 15:14 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
chf is no longer safe heaven by kiwi.

ac//I understand your odd feeling. While the US housing bubbles is getting bigger and bigger, why there're still inflating stock index every where in the world?......Not even dlr/chf feels the threat....

Hong Kong Qindex 15:13 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The consolidating range is [157.90] - [159.01] - [159.88]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 157.90. Projected supporting points are located at 155.15 and 157.08. A projected resistant level is positioning at 161.20 - 161.32.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:11 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY : The consolidating range is [157.90] - [159.01] - [159.88]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 157.90. Projected supporting points are located at 155.15 and 157.08. A projected resistant level is positioning at 161.20 - 161.2.

PAR 15:04 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
US held 120.25 and 120.00 options being protected .

Hong Kong Qindex 14:51 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : the odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the critical level at 120.93 - 121.35.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:15 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/JPY : My cycle references indicates that [120.93] - [121.35] is a critical level. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 119.59* - 119.62.

madrid mm 14:50 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
with New York Region Hit With Snow, , we might get a very slow day....what is left of it for me !! 8-)

UK Alex 14:44 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:35 GMT February 26, 2007
A big option expiry maybe?

hk ab 14:42 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR//If you still have faith on all these yen carry, a dlr/jpy long for you atm.

hk ab 14:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
something fishy when we see chf and gold divergence.

UK Alex 14:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR, gold prices might have something to do with it.

PAR 14:24 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Looking at the KIWI it seems that carry trades are not unwinding yet, on the contrary . US players are putting on new carry trades .

madrid mm 14:15 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
does anyone trade USD-HKD in here ? if yes could you give me some feedbacks please ? thx

hk ab 14:13 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
gb/ch and eu/ch pretty cricitical here.

Gen dk 14:09 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 14:07 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
after yen carry unwind, next is chf?

hk ab 14:06 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
aren't we all looking forward to see the dlr/jpy crash? Joe's theory again?

Hong Kong Stella 13:51 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY -- expecting a retracement to 20-week MA (229) to cool down the carry trade fever a bit, a bit down the road, next medium term upside target is 250.

Bodrum OEE 13:49 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Apologies. Edited version is below for whomever it may concern.

Regarding the JPY bubble (also called the credit one) unexpected and or undesired (outcome) itself is the crash. Majority (governments and institutional and individual investors) except a few seems to be in concert to take advantage of the status quo by letting the currency depreciate. Can one bust causal on the opposite direction be USD strentghtening?

slv sam 13:48 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 12:47 /
catioun! usd/chf is heading south!
1.2150 within 48 hours??GT

Gen dk 13:41 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

lugano fc 13:40 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
personally i will start to build a short position on sp500 if 1460 will be seen today...

lugano fc 13:37 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 12:35 GMT February 26, 2007


think the carry trade made it possible...cheap money...but once they unwind all should come down to earth....

madrid mm 13:31 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 12:35 GMT February 26, 2007

Life is simple. People are complicated

Bodrum OEE 13:31 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Regarding JPY bubble (or some calls it credit one) the unexpected and or undesired (outcome) itself is the crash. Majority (governments and institutional and individual investors) except a few is in concert to take advantage of the status quo.

Can one bust causal be USD strengthening?

OTTAWA mjw 13:31 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
cannesoilman, iam looking to long $/cad would you have any views on this? at these levels , thanks for any input..

GVI john 13:19 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

        EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3162	121.03	1.2333	1.9634	1.1592	0.7918	159.32
High	1.3188	121.64	1.2412	1.9652	1.1626	0.7925	159.63
Low	1.3102	120.93	1.2295	1.9539	1.1565	0.7878	159.13
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/23/2007					
5 day 	1.3144	120.60	1.2356	1.9559	1.1628	0.7894	158.53
10 day	1.3111	120.53	1.2388	1.9535	1.1647	0.7852	158.04
20 day 	1.3050	120.75	1.2427	1.9581	1.1732	0.7805	157.58
50 day 	1.3042	120.19	1.2383	1.9584	1.1711	0.7828	156.75
100 day	1.2968	118.85	1.2367	1.9368	1.1546	0.7773	154.13
200 day	1.2847	117.33	1.2364	1.9023	1.1368	0.7649	150.75

NYC Ed 13:18 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Anyone Bullish on Cable today ???

UK Alex 13:05 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Iran has breached another technological barrier by claiming to have sent a rocket into space. This may also be weighing on sentiment towards the dollar.

London The Holy Grail 13:00 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
There are some concerns around printed for the rejection of the UNs nuke plan from Iran.. Oily Goldy big risk of higher extensions, but difficult to get in right here....

zzzzzzzzzzzzzz bibi

ABHA FXS 12:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
GBP.USD
WEEKLY RANG 1.9668-1.9476
SHORT AT 1.9653 T 1.9486
STOP 30 PIPS ABOVE W RANG

St. Annaland Bob 12:49 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 12:35 GMT February 26, 2007

there is even more simple way to make money in Israel, go to Bat-Yam tomorrow and Arkady will give you something if you will ask ... no margin calls or r/r calculation, all you have is to ask and you get it in cash ($100 bills only!)

Australia J 12:49 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
At last I find a decent web site out there where I dont have to pay to learn step by step how to use technical analysis to forecast market movements. Great author and provides real life examples too. http://www.learntechnicaltrading.com . Does anyone think the EUR/USD pair resistance is around 1.3336 ?

HK REVDAX 12:47 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
"What is obvious is obviously wrong...". said Joe Granfield in his book. OK...it is obvious the Euro will go up following an annoucement(or anticipation) of interest rate increase in Europe. But I am going to short it today in accordance with
Joe's philosophy.

Haifa ac 12:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Am I the only one who feels market have been rather "strange" last few months?
bonds rally with gold
Utilities outpace bonds by a mile
inflation measure zero and crb all time high
Stocks rally like the sky is limit?
Is there any rational explanation?
Is it all function of low dollar? is it THAT simple?

NYC Ed 12:19 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
So alot of snow here in the east, and a Sliegh ride down with Cavble, anyonme thinking we are going back up the slope today... I know CORNY

St. Annaland Bob 12:15 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   

looks like USDJPY @ 120.35/65 long with stop below 120.25 may play nice for the next 24-48 hours ... same time for same time frame going long EURJPY may play also nicely ... trade happy and safe

london av 12:04 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
does anyone have a view on NZD interest rate decision? is this a certain increase? was thinking of a small short with tight s/l above 7100.

Manchester SA 11:52 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Any views on the USD/JPY?

Shorted @120.73
TP @120.37
Stop @ 120.85

Syd 11:15 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Carry Trades Need Watching - BarCap
[Dow Jones] Geopolitical news over the weekend appears to be having an impact, a negative one for carry trades notes Barclays Capital. The bank says EUR/JPY has already reversed from a major resistance zone while EUR/CHF is threatening to complete a small double top on the charts. That said, the bank says it's too early to get enthusiastic about JPY and CHF upside potential, as chart damage has so far been minimal, daily closes below 158.65 (EUR/JPY) and 1.6195 (EUR/CHF) would change that. In conclusion, BarCap says the technical situation should be closely monitored. EUR/JPY trades at 158.85, EUR/CHF at 1.6210

Auckland trotter 10:49 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 10:39 GMT February 26, 2007
Problem there, my school uniform is long gone.

The drummer of ACDC lives around the corner to me now in NZ - just a point of interest.

Nice to hear you back again

Glgt

St. Annaland Bob 10:41 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Purky, I had the feeling you will would ask for Marco Borsato style ... oops ... what is your EURJPY view?

The Netherlands Purk 10:39 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Yes TROTTERS, sing it is a long way to the top if you wanna Rock 'n Roll by ac/dc with the ever lasting voice of Bon Scott...

Auckland trotter 10:37 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 09:14 GMT February 26, 2007
“Maybe you can sing it?”

Could do, but my voice is not that great. More of a musician than singer.

Any tune you have in mind?

At the moment I am looking at the key of “F” - Frustration, and censored by Jay.

EUR/USD looks up from the weekly I5 pivot of 1.3160 - if I could trade!

GENEVA DS 10:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR

Thanks for your posts.... very interesting... but you really seem to be the one and only BEAR for the yen left today... probably a good deal of momentum in USDJPY will come back , once we break 122.50 tomorrow or wednesday.... will be interesting to see how fast we will go to 127 after....!

salzburg alex 10:21 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
raden:how do you know that?technically or fundamentally?

UK Alex 10:08 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Possibility of a Euro/USD 1.28-1.32 DNT structure in play today.

Lahore FM 10:08 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd looking vulnerable to slide below 1.9590.

Charlotte TH 10:07 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 23:42 GMT February 22, 2007
short usdjpy 121.49.

earlier short at 120.30 area.
--------------------------
closed one from 121.49 at 120.70.

Baltimore Zoltan 10:00 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Budapest Z !

Mike Mirdiff 09:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Whats the position held on NZD/USD Pair.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 09:46 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
good evening forum.
eur/usd have done 1.3153, ready to shoot 1.3273 as the top tgt.
also gbp/usd 1.9620-1.9601 is the buy area for minimal tgt 1.9682 or 1.9716 as the top tgt.

good luck

Budapest Z 09:45 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan, 2 pm CET, which is 8 am on east coast...consensus is 8% unch, seems market positioned for that outcome, a hike could likely see a test of 250 in coming days in eurhuf (all imho)

Baltimore Zoltan 09:42 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
JPY crosses reached the top of their daily channels, e.g. CAD_JPY at 104.5, EUR-JPY at 159.5. May confirm suspicion of JPY longs soon. Just my 2c.

Baltimore Zoltan 09:36 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Maybe someone knows the answer to this as well: what time do we expect the rate decision from the Hungarian National Bank? Perhaps Budapest Z knows. I hear they may leave it unchanged at 8%

Thanks!!

PAR 09:32 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Japanese already denying they will discuss forex with Paulson. They will discuss, the Oscars, Basaball, the weather .. but forex. Dont think so .

St. Annaland Bob 09:30 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   

Lahore FM, good to see you around again ... happy trades!

Auckland trotter 09:27 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
General comment, with my trade station frozen:

The last few days of trading for the EUR/USD has shown a correction prior to the opening of the EUR and into the initial part of the opening of the UK market.

General pressure I have as up from the longer term charts, and have traded the correction and then followed the general up pressure for profit.

There will be a ceiling for this. But with a frozen trade station, I have an early night, unless it is sorted shortly.

Syd 09:17 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Looking For Signs Of USD Turnaround


0906 GMT [Dow Jones] The USD decline that JP Morgan had been looking for finally started to take shape Friday and achieved the bank's minimum targets. JPM says it would like to see another bout of USD selling toward 1.3250-1.33 in EUR/USD and 1.97-1.98 for cable, however it's now on the lookout for signs of a top in both. USD/JPY has pulled back a reached the bank's minimum objective of 120.80, sideways action should now follow, then back toward 122.00 and eventually 124.00-125.00.

St. Annaland Bob 09:17 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
happy day!

JPY unwind faces three issues:

1/ when the unwinding will start?
2/ from where the unwinding will start?
3/ will it be right to look for unwinding signal through XAU/JPY?

Syd 09:15 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Japan Fujii: Omi To Hold Broad Talks With Paulson Next Week
Japan's top finance ministry bureaucrat said Monday that Finance Minister Koji Omi will discuss a wide range of topics with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson next week.

"I haven't heard what they will discuss, but I think they will frankly exchange views" on the Japanese, U.S, and global economies, Vice Finance Minister Hideto Fujii told a regular press conference.


warsaw TOMi 09:14 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:10 GMT February 26, 2007

maybe yr trade station is saving you losses with €/$ to slide down..

The Netherlands Purk 09:14 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:10 GMT February 26, 2007

Maybe you can sing it?

Lahore FM 09:11 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:07 GMT February 26, 2007
the scale of the unwind will be unexpected perhaps.

Auckland trotter 09:10 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Still have problems with my trade station - with up for the EUR/USD.

To save Jay the problem - censored!!!!!!!

PAR 09:07 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
As long as everybody is expecting the unwinding of the carry trades it will not happen . A stock market crash is by definition unexpected .

Lahore FM 09:04 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
ACC,what i was talking late friday is unfolding now.

Sydney ACC 09:02 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
This may turn out to be a false dawn, however, i believe we are seeing the beginning of theunwinding of the JPY carry-trade. The Nikkei 225 has had its best run (six consecutive days of gains) since December. Fujii today called on Japanese to invest in the local stockmarket rather than send their money oversaes.

Lets see how things work out in the next day or so.

PAR 08:57 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Why would Paulson tell the japanese its ok to devalue their currency while at the same time urging the Chinese to revalue the Yuan . China can not alone revalue its currency while other asian currencies keep devaluing .

Bodrum OEE 08:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
In case, as favoured by many in opinion, there is a buble over the undervalued JPY, plus, assuming that there might be a correction at one stage, why and who would (you?) go against the currency (except doing so through very short term positions) and risk to be hurt?

Syd 08:52 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Japan Fujii: Omi, Paulson May Discuss FX, Monetary Policy
Omi To Hold Broad Talks With Paulson

Bodrum OEE 08:51 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
In case, as favoured by many, there is a buble over the undervalued JPY, plus, assuming that there might be a correction at one stage, why and who would (you?) go against the currency (except doing so through very short term positions) and risk to be hurt?

Auckland trotter 08:46 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
I can’t log on to my trade station at the moment - those that have the same major provider will have the same problem, for which they can not give a time scale as to when they can fix their problem.

To save Jay (censored).

I was going to trade down pre the opening of the EUR/USD market and wait for the trade up with general pressure still up from trend lines on various charts.

Just looking at short term trades lost for now.

But then it highlights the stop aspect of trading!!!!, it may not be needed that often if you understand the market short term - but technical aspect from your trading platform gives another aspect to placing a stop.


Now have my trade station, but cost me profit of projected trades, just (censored by Jay)

Baltimore Zoltan 08:45 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Thank you all for posting the Swedish data!

madrid mm 08:43 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
swedish jan trade surplus 11.1 bln skrs versus 15.1 bln year earlier

Baltimore Zoltan 08:42 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Thanks very much Lahore!!!

Lahore FM 08:42 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan,it is a surplus not deficit,but then you might already be knowing that.

Budapest Z 08:42 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan, 14,1B expected....11,1B actual. 0,2B upward revision to pervious month.

Lahore FM 08:41 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan 11.1 bln skr against 15.1 skr earlier.

Lahore FM 08:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
the big jpy unwind might have begun already.

Baltimore Zoltan 08:34 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have the Swedish trade balance data, please? Thanks!

Gen dk 08:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Andorra Qwerty 08:24 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Do you want a safe trade for nice 70/80 pips? Short EUR/CHF, target 1.6140. I'll be back when target prints ... don't ask, just trade. GT GL.

Sofia mik 07:54 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:38 GMT February 26, 2007


Join me pls, :)

madrid mm 07:38 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Chinese Vice MoF Lou Jiwei is expected to be name new head of Central Huijin, paving way for launch of China FX reserve agency - Reuters.

After some research on Reuters, a few weeks ago they mentioned it was going to be a fund of around 200Billion US$ !!!! 8-)
I would be happy to manage 0.00001% 4 him ! PLUS he must be receiving a few phone calls this am .....

Syd 07:25 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Japan Govt Shiozaki: Deflation Exit Within Sight

nyc joel 07:15 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton


IN THE BAG

madrid mm 07:15 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Yen to Drop to 126 as Interest Rates on Hold, Deutsche Bank's Fukaya Says The yen may fall 4 percent to 126 a dollar by the end of June because the Bank of Japan won't raise interest rates in the next six months, said Deutsche Bank AG, the world's biggest currency trader.

Syd 07:08 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
German consumer confidence for March deteriorated further, Reuters news agency reported Monday, citing the monthly survey from market research group GfK.

The group's forward-looking consumer climate indicator for March slipped to 4.4 points from a revised reading of 4.9 points for February. GfK previously said the index was at 4.8 points for February.

The outcome was below economists' forecasts of 4.9 points.

The indicator signals private consumption growth of "just short of" 0.5% in real terms, GfK said.

Household spending has been the 'Achilles heel' of the economy since 2002, rising just 0.3% on the quarter in the last three months of 2006, according to official data published last week.
http://www.gfk.com/group/index.en.html

Edmonton Rob 06:34 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
nyc joel 06:33 GMT February 26, 2007

I sure hope youre right Joel. Im short 1.3180 hoping for 1.3145

nyc joel 06:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton



1.3145 b4 1 3245 100 pct

Turtle ПОИСК 06:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
res = 1.9399 1.9735

Edmonton Rob 06:26 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
We have anyone shorting EUR/USD or anything thinking an overnight short for 30 pips is possible here at this point?

madrid mm 06:21 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Central Banking Publications survey of 47 central banks managing $1.5trillion or around 30% of the world's reserves showed 40% of the reserves managers have not reached the limits of feasible and practical diversification. 21 up Euros in their reserves, 6 upped share of JPY, and 4 decreased CHF. - Reuters.

Chinese Vice MoF Lou Jiwei is expected to be name new head of Central Huijin, paving way for launch of China FX reserve agency - Reuters.

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan reportedly said in DJ that recession in US is "possible" in late 2007. Huge US budget deficit remains a "significant concern."

NZ Trade deficit for Jan NZD833m, wider than NZD671m expected.

KKR and Texas Pacific expected to make $44bln for Texas power company TXU, the largest private-equity takeover.

USD under pressure in Asia on rising geopolitical tensions over Iran, as US VP Cheney comments indicate that US is open to military action against Iran.

EUR/USD hit fresh 2-m highs of 1.3199 on good funds, other Swiss, UK clearers buying, but capped by good options related offers from large German, European ahead 1.32 - though there are good 2-way interest around 1.3190-00, before EUR/USD dipped after failure to take out the 1.32 triggers, falling to 1.3180-85.

USD/JPY lower as Japanese mega-city banks sold good amount, but finding bids at 120.80-90, stoploss on break of 120.70. With some focus on reported of Citigroup's interest to increase its stake in Nikko from 5% to 33.3% for $2.3bln.

EUR/JPY edging lower from all time highs of 159.64, but interest still to buy on dips, with focus on the 1.32 options triggers in EUR, and talks of huge 160.00 options.

GBP/USD edged up a touch on the on strong Hometrack house price data, but seen capped on selling interest in GBP/JPY, and some demand for EUR/GBP. Offers coming in at 1.9650-60 level.

AUD/USD hit 1-m highs of 0.7928, but capped by options offers ahead of 0.7950, while Kiwi hit 2-m highs of 0.7096 on talks of good buying from model, US funds, leveraged funds despite the drop after the wider than expected trade deficit. Topside capped ahead of 0.7100 options triggers, while bids still at 0.7050-60 from funds.

Nikkei close at its highest level in almost 7 years, up 26.93pts at 18,215.35, Nikko-Cordial higher on talks of Citigroup bid interest. JGBs higher, with 10-yr JGB yield -0.020% at 1.650%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.78/121.11, EUR/USD 1.3163/1.31929, GBP/USD 1.9622/1.9655, USD/CHF 1.2297/1.2326, AUD/USD 0.7908/0.7928, NZD/USD 0.7060/0.7095.

madrid mm 06:03 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
gm fx trader, just saw that chart station NetDania improved its look !!!

Edmonton Rob 05:46 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Very much considering a EUR/USD short now for 30 to 35 pips

Edmonton Rob 05:41 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
nyc joel 05:36 GMT February 26, 2007

Thanks Joel much appreciated

Vancouver PINK 05:38 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Will NZD be making up the gap? or is it going to go higher overnight.

nyc joel 05:36 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton

No doubt

Edmonton Rob 05:28 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
think we'll seel 1.3145 in the Eur over the next few hrs?

Syd 05:10 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
BOJ Jan Minutes: Noda, Suda, Mizuno Against Steady Policy
BOJ Jan Minutes: 3 Said Rate Hike Conditions Met
BOJ Minutes: Suda Against Jan Econ Report
MOF Aide: BOJ Must Carefully Assess Prices
Cabinet Aide: BOJ Must Focus On Econ Downside Risks
BOJ Minutes: 3 Said Easy Policy May Overstimulate Econ
Some: Must Carefully Watch Oil Price Moves
Some: Unrealistic To Expect Strong Pvt Consumption
Some: CPI May Fall On Year In Coming Months
Some: Effective Yen Rates Lower On Rate Gap

LKWD JJ 05:08 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
oil man what do you see for usdchf?

Makassar Alimin 05:04 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
LOL thanks guys for the good laugh, good way to start the week ahead :)

Cannes Oil man 05:03 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Hello,

NZD finally breaking last high's , little to go for Next target located 130 pips above current spot prices.

This week $ might finally start THE move , particularly against the CAD.

Back at UK open.
gt

HK dm 04:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 04:46 GMT February 26, 2007
....and stay away from chinese cycles as well as Elliot cycles...

LKWD JJ 04:52 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
alimin open a bodyshop and fix cars

Syd 04:48 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 04:46 GMT just dont drive a car in China !!seems more dangerous than FX

Makassar Alimin 04:46 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:41 GMT February 26, 2007

how can i make money from that? buy renminbi? sell renminbi?

LKWD JJ 04:44 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
wow ! i didnt know it was so dangerous to ride a bike.

Syd 04:41 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
BEIJING (AP)--Traffic accidents killed 1,107 people and injured 4,624 in China during the Lunar New Year week, state media reported Monday.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:39 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 00:15 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/JPY : My cycle references indicates that [120.93] - [121.35] is a critical level. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 119.59* - 119.62. On the other hand speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 122.26* - 122.31*


Hong Kong Qindex 00:43 GMT February 25, 2007
EUR/USD : My cycle references indicate that the market is going to consolidate between [1.3138] - [1.3226]. Projected supporting range are expected at 1.3071* - 1.3081 and 1.3116* - 1.3119*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.3303 - 1.3313*.


Hong Kong Qindex 02:45 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/CHF : My cycle references indicate that [1.2296] - [1.2492] a consolidating range. A supporting level is located at 1.2204 - 1.2238. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.2556 - 1.2567.


Hong Kong Qindex 02:25 GMT February 25, 2007
GBP/USD : My cycle references indicate that [1.9508] - [1.9634] is a consolidating range. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.9643. A projected resistant level is located at 1.9755 - 1.9768. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.9433 - 1.9441.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:06 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/CAD : Consolidating ranges are located at [1.1562] - [1.1590] and [1.1639] - [1.1690]. A projected supporting level is located at 1.1468 - 1.1471*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.1713* - 1.1730*.


Hong Kong Qindex 03:24 GMT February 25, 2007
AUD/USD : A consolidating range is located at [0.7836] - [0.7903]. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 0.7903. A projected supporting level is located at 0.7800 - 0.7809. A projected resistant level is expected at 0.7974 - 0.7989.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:38 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 00:15 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/JPY : My cycle references indicates that [120.93] - [121.35] is a critical level. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 119.59* - 119.62. On the other hand speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 122.26* - 122.31*Hong Kong Qindex 00:43 GMT February 25, 2007
EUR/USD : My cycle references indicate that the market is going to consolidate between [1.3138] - [1.3226]. Projected supporting range are expected at 1.3071* - 1.3081 and 1.3116* - 1.3119*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.3303 - 1.3313*.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:45 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/CHF : My cycle references indicate that [1.2296] - [1.2492] a consolidating range. A supporting level is located at 1.2204 - 1.2238. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.2556 - 1.2567.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:25 GMT February 25, 2007
GBP/USD : My cycle references indicate that [1.9508] - [1.9634] is a consolidating range. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 1.9643. A projected resistant level is located at 1.9755 - 1.9768. A projected supporting level is expected at 1.9433 - 1.9441.
Hong Kong Qindex 03:06 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/CAD : Consolidating ranges are located at [1.1562] - [1.1590] and [1.1639] - [1.1690]. A projected supporting level is located at 1.1468 - 1.1471*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.1713* - 1.1730*.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:24 GMT February 25, 2007
AUD/USD : A consolidating range is located at [0.7836] - [0.7903]. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 0.7903. A projected supporting level is located at 0.7800 - 0.7809. A projected resistant level is expected at 0.7974 - 0.7989.

LKWD JJ 04:36 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
12th of dec? why dust it off now? banks have been wrong before.only economists get it right all the time!! lol!! besides we've been from 12/12 cable @19710 down to low 192's and up to high 19916. throw in a few rate hikes into the mix and rates are now equal to usd with a good shot at 5.50.

Edmonton Rob 04:23 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   

CT PT 04:17 GMT February 26, 2007

heheh i wanna go long tonight on the pound
consensus seems to be to enter the position around the 1.9615 range or so

CT PT 04:17 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Pound is not going to crash so soon...rising oil prices, imposing winter, flurry of weak USdata compared to UK data...& ofcourse weak yen will hold its strength for atleast next few wks....the best time to short will be around 1.98....unless you are ready to tolerate some drawdowns....
GL/GT

Sydney ACC 04:14 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Recovery in the eurozone remains far from certain

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article1438175.ece

Rye,NY et 04:09 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...In terms of trendline analysis, 1.3205 is a critical level today. A clear break takes the Bearish Channel off the table and reinforces the s/t bullish bias. A Usd bounce from there could be s/t bearish. The market may wish avoid the situation entirely, as it did the other day, but probably will not....just my view....GL/GT

Edmonton Rob 04:05 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:01 GMT February 26, 2007

So since its not new it really doesnt affect anything we're doing at the moment

Im tempted to go long on the Cable
I think that alot of this data comming out this week will punish the USD
but since im a novice at this i seek the opinions of the people of the forum

Sydney ACC 04:01 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 03:46 GMT February 26, 2007

Here is address for the article. It was in the Telegraph on 12th December, so its not new.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/12/12/cnster12.xml

Edmonton Rob 03:56 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
You guys actually think the Pound is gonna fall?

Syd 03:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 03:46 GMT below reply

Syd 03:54 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
I was emailed it from a trader in London

http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/34cdc98c534fb83/bsccc022607.pdf

ABHA FXS 03:52 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
corrction ..
euraud target 1.6760
usdjpy target 120.19

LKWD JJ 03:46 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:05 GMT February 26, 2007
Sydney ACC , a bit of interesting info too


Why the Pound is set to fall
=======================
can you please tell us where this quote is from?

Edmonton Rob 03:29 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Would anyone be a GBP/USD buyer here or would you be waiting for the 1.9620 range to go long?

Aus Stu 03:17 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 03:07 GMT February 26, 2007

This movement matches up with the Yen crosses, with this little activity going on it's probably the only thing driving them

GT

Washington MRM 03:07 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed

Definitely. Anyone else curious why EUR/US$ is sitting at highs for today and Friday but GBP/US$ has backed off some from its highs?

NY Ed 03:03 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM... since we have at least another 5 hours, I think I need to play it VERY tight , these scalps will help

Washington MRM 02:55 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 02:43 GMT February 26, 2007

Ahh, I see... thought you were going for more long term than just short scalps.

IMHO, I think the impetus for the move up in cable will be the European open. We'll see soon enough though.

NY Ed 02:43 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM....afetr talking with you just changed my order long @ 41 sell @ 46

NY Ed 02:38 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM... makes sense, I was placing long @ 42-43 and bailing out at 50, this time of day for a quick scalp

Washington MRM 02:36 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed...

Hasn't 1.9650 been capping it Friday and today? I think that you could add long anywhere and it be a good position, but I think I will look to buy break of 1.9650 or pull-back to 1.9615-20.

Syd 02:35 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Japan's household assets can boost economy: Fukui
TOKYO : Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said on Sunday that the Japanese economy can grow at a faster pace if the nation's ample household assets shift to riskier investment, reports said.
If accumulated (household) financial assets play an efficient role, that could well boost the economic growth rate," Fukui said in a Tokyo lecture, according to Kyodo News agency.

"Thanks to growth in the past and savings, the amount (of Japan's household financial assets) has reached a huge figure of about 1,500 trillion yen," Fukui reportedly said, adding that Japan can see further economic expansion by shifting the money to investments.

Fukui pointed that only 15 percent of household money is currently invested in stocks and investment trusts and said "there is a potential that household asset would be activated as risk money," Jiji Press reported.

His remarks came after the BoJ decided to raise rates by a quarter-point to 0.5 percent on Wednesday - the first since last July when it ended its highly unorthodox policy of virtually free credit - as the world's number two economy recovers from its long deflationary slump.

Japan is in the midst of its longest sustained recovery since World War II after a decade in the doldrums.


NY Ed 02:33 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM... you think it breaks UP at 50?

Edmonton Rob 02:32 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
1.9635 thats looking like its a juicy place to buy the cable

Anyone think it can go lower or is this a good place to get it?

Washington MRM 02:31 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 02:27 GMT February 26, 2007

Why go long ahead of 1.9650 break??

NY Ed 02:27 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM... For me I am putting on a LONG positon at 9646.

Washington MRM 02:25 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 02:23 GMT February 26, 2007

Absolutely - that's why I said that holding shorts makes me nervous. I have no idea when this thing is going to break out, but have a feeling it will do so in a big way. Waiting to go long - hopefully hits it 1.9615.

NY Ed 02:23 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM... I hear ya'..but I still have a LONG position feel on this one.. YOU????

Washington MRM 02:22 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 02:18 GMT February 26, 2007

Holding shorts of GBP/US$ recently makes me nervous too... better to be safe, but I am still expecting it to go down another 10 points. Let's hope it gets there.

NY Ed 02:18 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob... I'm out now, and don 't you know still feel like...OH yeah I should have stayed...but that will get you nuts

Syd 02:02 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Fitch: Rents In Japan Rising But Lag Land Price Increases

NY Ed 02:00 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob... do you how many time sI have said that, and then lost... I only learned one thing from this forum...be tru to yourself

Edmonton Rob 01:58 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 01:51 GMT February 26, 2007
Edmonton Rob... I am still Short @ 43, I thinking we see 20's but I have a limit out @ 34

=====================================

In retrospect I should have kept my short position open
oh well

NY Ed 01:51 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob... I am still Short @ 43, I thinking we see 20's but I have a limit out @ 34

NY Ed 01:46 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
DEFINETLY !!!!

Edmonton Rob 01:45 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Im out now
i only made a few pips on it, which is better than a loss in my books

NY Ed 01:40 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
How short

Edmonton Rob 01:36 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 01:14 GMT February 26, 2007

Was short on GBP/USD

ABHA FXS 01:30 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
long euraud 1.6644 stop 1.6587 t 1.6851

NY Ed 01:27 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Are we ALL watching our screens and the Oscars at the same time

ABHA FXS 01:25 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
short usdjpy 120.88 stop 121.35 t 119.19

NY Ed 01:14 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob... Short on what Cable ?

UK Alex 00:32 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article1329322.ece

Syd 00:28 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY falls as fund players close out long positions, transfer money into U.S. bonds, stocks, says trader at Japan securities company; investors such as Japan securities companies also locking in profits, pulling pair down to 120.82 from session-high 121.11. Tips 120.50-121.10 range for now; pair last at 120.84 on EBS. EUR/JPY drops in tandem, tipped 159.00-159.60; last at 159.31

Sydney ACC 00:23 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Pecs Andras 00:11 GMT February 26, 2007
1. Increasing expectation of higher interest rates to cool down demand.
2. Weaker dollar

Sydney ACC 00:11 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:05 GMT February 26, 2007
These predicitions were issued by the respective banks in December.

Pecs Andras 00:11 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Guys
Why is NDZ appreciating after worse than exp trade data?

Syd 00:09 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:05 GMT February 26, 2007
thought there deadline for this, which is why the panic now

Syd 00:05 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC , a bit of interesting info too


Why the Pound is set to fall
Pound is set to fall hard, according to two big US investment banks. Goldman Sachs says the Pound is 13% over-valued on a trade-weighted basis. Lehman Brothers are gloomier still. "I'm not saying that things will be terrible, but they will feel much worse," warns their chief UK economist, Alan Castle. He sees Sterling falling to $1.82 next year, before sinking to $1.68 by Christmas 2008.

Wall Street's reasons are simple. They might give US investors dιja vu, too. For Great Britain and the United States have much more in common than merely the mess in Iraq.

Just like America, Britain is currently running a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world. The largest shortfall in Western Europe, it reached a near 18-year record this fall. And just like America, Britain also has a mountain of government debt.

Officially, public sector net debt stands at £486.7bn. That's equal to US$953.9bn and represents a little under 38% of annual GDP. Add the state's "off balancesheet" debt, however – including its pension promises to state- paid employees – and the total shoots nearly three times higher. Research by the Centre for Policy Studies in London says it would put UK government deficits at a staggering 103% of GDP. The debt burden per household would be over $103,880.

Then there's consumer debt – only here, Britain is way ahead of the States. Total consumer liabilities now run to an entire year's worth of GDP, thanks to house prices tripling since 1996. That's when the last wipeout troughed. It started in late '89 and knocked average home prices, adjusted for inflation, down by 35% and beyond. Fast forward to Dec.'06, and the British now owe$2 trillion in housing debt, much of it held as a naked call – otherwise known as interest-only home loans with no money down.

Now add unsecured debt per household of $16,840 on average...plus personal bankruptcies doubling to an all- time record since 2004...and "the surprise is that the Pound has been so strong," gasp Lehman Brothers.
"Current account deficits matter over time," the suits in the City remind us, "and we're worried that Britain's [trade] deficit could widen to 4% of GDP in 2008."
Lehman Brothers say Sterling will drop to $1.68. Goldman Sachs forecast a 13% drop or more versus the Dollar. Morgan Stanley this summer set "fair value" at $1.63. But what if the Dollar keeps falling...and Sterling falls too? Where will central banks turn next as they try to spread their currency risk from one fiat money to another?

Vancouver PINK 00:05 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
I would love a comment on nzd/usd and nzd/jpy also! ;)

Sydney ACC 00:05 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Syd, there was widespread coverage in yesterday's papers about property investors selling investment properties and putting proceeds into superannuation. Given the changes to the taxation on super as number of experts claim it will be the preferred investment for 2007-2008.
I looked up the amount AMP invests in international equities unhedged in there mnanaged funds. The percentage varies between 25% to 60%.
Given the changes I see two outcomes.
1. The banks will be lending less for housing next year which means a reduced demand for funding through the swaps; and
2. Increased investments in foreign equities as most of super money will be channelled into managed funds.

While AUD will more likely be affected by fortunes of the international market especially the levels JPy and USD trade at, the increased floiws offshore add up to another headwind for AUD iof it is to continue to rise.

UK Alex 00:04 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Edmonton Rob 23:33 GMT February 25, 2007
Expecting it to range trade for now i.e. no bias. Will probably drift down ahead of Gfk consumer confidence release tomorrow 7.10 GMT.

Edmonton Rob 00:04 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Short position closed, exited with profit! hehe

London AH 00:03 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
Any thoughts of gold?

benedita 00:00 GMT February 26, 2007 Reply   
sell [email protected]

 




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