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Forex Forum Archive for 02/27/2007

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Baltimore Zoltan 23:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Van jv 23:56 GMT February 27, 2007:

Japan ind. output down 1.5%
retail sales down 0.8%

RIC fxq 23:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
feb mfg pmi -0.4 to 53.0

RIC fxq 23:58 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
ret sales -0.8, ind output -1.5

GVI john 23:58 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Wed, Feb 28, 2007
09:00 GE- Jan Employment
10:00 EZ- Jan unemplyment
10:00 EZ- Feb Bus/Cons Confidence
10:00 EZ- Jan HICP
CHART

10:00 EZ- Jan unemployment rare
10:30 CH- Feb KOF Indicator
13:30 US- 4Q06 GDP (see +2.3% vs. +3.5%)
15:00 US- Fed Chicago PMI (see 50.0 vs. 48.8)
15:00 US- Jan New Home Sales (see 1.08mln vs. 1.12mln in Dec)
15:30 US- Weekly Energy

Thu, Mar 1, 2007
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Capex
09:00 EZ/GE- Feb mfg PMI
09:30 UK- Feb mfg PMI
10:00 EZ- Feb HICP (flash)
CHART

13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 325,000 vs. 332,000)
13:30 US- Jan PI see +0.3% vs. +0.5%, core-PCE +0.2% vs. +0.1%)
CHART

13:30 CA- 4Q06 BOP
13:30 CA- Jan IPPI
15:30 US- Natural Gas
15:00 US- Jan Construction Spending (see -0.5% vs. -0.4%)
15:00 US- Feb Mfg ISM (see 50.0 vs. 49.3 Jan)

USA BAY 23:57 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/NZD] The pair rallied strongly from an earlier low around 1.1155/60 ...
[AUD/NZD] The pair rallied strongly from an earlier low around 1.1155/60 to an o/n high of 1.1300 before some profit taking saw the pair drifting down to the 1.1260 level. With a meltdown in the global equity markets spooking all financial market investors, the pair will likely drift higher as the NZD usually performs poorly against its Aussie cousin in times of risk aversion. With the NZD/JPY liquidation far from over, the risk of a further fall in the NZD/USD will provide some support in the AUD/NZD. Market players are eyeing stops at the 1.1300 level with a break there bringing the pair to strong resistance at the 1.1340 level. Buying orders at 1.1250 by an Aussie name will provide support and selling orders at 1.1320 by a European name will limit upside gains.

RIC fxq 23:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
JPN retail sales, mfg PMI and industrial output all down in January

Van jv 23:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
23:50 JA- Jan Prelim IP .......?
23:50 JA- Jan Retail Sales ?

Syd 23:53 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Costello Plans 0030 GMT Briefing

Cannes Oil man 23:38 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
I didn't understand what it was either, pp isn't standard p is.

USA BAY 23:36 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC FXQ,

LOLLOL, God fxq, it is pivot point. hehehe

RIC fxq 23:36 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
nevermind - pp = pivot point

London AH 23:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
it's only temporar. the world is tired of a weak Yen

Atlanta South 23:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Out EUR/JPY long @ 156.39 from 156.19. Done for the day.
Gt to all.

RIC fxq 23:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:27 GMT

this sounds vulgar but ... whats a pp?????

USA BAY 23:27 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, all seems havent penetrated the pp so looks like another round of downside.

USA BAY 23:21 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/USD] The pair touched an 8-week high at 0.7947 but was unable to clear s...
[AUD/USD] The pair touched an 8-week high at 0.7947 but was unable to clear strong resistance at the 0.7950 level. The pair stalled at the 0.7930 level for most of the London session before dipping towards the 0.7910/20 level in New York trading where it traded for most of the session. A late sell-off in the AUD/JPY dragged the AUD/USD to an o/n low of 0.7875. The market which has turned risk averse after the massive fall in the global equity markets will likely lead to further carry trade liquidation which will see the AUD/USD heading lower over coming sessions. Profit taking buy orders at 0.7850 by spec types will provide some support but good sell orders at 0.7900/10 by leveraged accts and UK Clearer will keep the topside intact.

Cannes Oil man 23:15 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Yen surges amid flight to quality

Syd 23:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
DJ Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Down 3.4%

Syd 23:10 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Market Correction Shock
Official statements and data from China showed concern that the Chinese market was running at quite a high risk. Bob Parker, Vice Chairman of Asset Management at Credit Suisse, tells CNBC's Simon Hobbs of the market correction shock.

LKWD JJ 23:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
when i checked my order @75 was trading down to 40-50 and didnt think it woul go below 120.

Syd 23:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
The Aussie managed a new high by just a couple of points but then closed lower and created a bearish key day reversal. The Aussie has first support at 0.7865 but after some ranging 0.7860/0.7910 it should continue down to 0.7825. This drop is an opportunity to start the next major decline but a break of 0.7785 is needed to confirm it. A decline to 0.7540 and perhaps 0.7410 will follow. Failure to break 0.7785 will leave the Aussie in a good position to rally through 0.7990.
The strong drop yesterday means that Kiwi has failed to hold above the previous 0.7110 high and now has a good chance of starting a new decline. The current drop should hold around 0.6860 today and a reaction back to 0.7030 should be seen.
chartmanager

USA BAY 22:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
[NZD/USD] The pair was trading very strongly above the 0.7100 level in Asia ye...
[NZD/USD] The pair was trading very strongly above the 0.7100 level in Asia yesterday to reach a high of 0.7115 before a softer than expected NZ inflationary expectations data set the tone for the Kiwi as it headed into the London session a tad softer. The extreme long position of carry trade investors, model and leveraged funds saw a scramble heading for the same small exit at the same time taking the pair to an o/n low of 0.6977. The massive selling in the NZD/JPY also gave the NZD/USD a push lower as panic stricken investors just wanted out. On the day, the sour sentiment will continue to drive the NZD/USD and rallies are meant to be sold as we do not see a turnaround just yet. Buying orders at 0.6960 by specs will provide some support but selling orders at 0.7010 by model/leveraged funds as well as a US invt bank will limit gains to the upside.

USA BAY 22:58 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ.

Why not split the order like, in 10000 units, have 5000 at 75 and another at 65. so at least you get into one trade better than nothing.

San j kp 22:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad views? shorting is very tempting but is edging higher slowly

LKWD JJ 22:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
had orders to sell usdjpy last night @75 and high was 73. in the am it was too late and stayed out all day.

Syd 22:44 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NZ shares tumble 3.2%, biggest loss in years, as plunge in Wall Street that followed sharp sell-off in China's share market yesterday hit hard; market hit low of 3966.07, has slightly recovered now to be off 2.8% at 3,983.05. Brokers say NZ stocks were effectively "playing catch up" after missing effects of China slump yesterday. Goldman Sachs JB Were institutional adviser says now market has taken an initial big hit "downside on the day from here is somewhat limited" as investors will wait to see how other Asian markets perform.

Tallinn viies 22:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
fwiw
GS commentary...
The end of Goldilocks comes by Bears winning back their house. So today brought what was expected by the doomsayers - 1) A JPY carry unwind; 2) Equity correction; 3) Spread widening. The risk reduction across all markets was notable and it came with real volatility. The trigger for today has been blamed on talk of a Chinese capital gains tax, discussion of by the IMF head economist of JPY carry risks, the continued saber rattling from the US at Iran and the bleeding of bad news about US sub-prime mortgages. The news of a weaker durable goods from the US sealed the fate of a market ready to switch assets. US Bonds beat equities and beat lesser credits. Any port in a storm is the theory - but the practice proves that some places have shallow coves and are still dangerous - witness the drop in Gold and the drop in oil - both viewed as alternative currencies. The other point about today is that this isn't May 2006 - but something entirely different. May 2006 was started by a 3 pronged attack on taking away liquidity from the world by the BOJ, ECB and the FED. While today we have the US market pricing in more rate cuts. The BOJ has been viewed as 50 bps and done and the ECB is similarly expected to hike in March and go away - so its not about liquidity but something else. That something else is the fine balance of growth and inflation - the higher US CPI and the weaker US data has a nasty mix and its been reflected in ABX and the like today and for the month - leaving open the worry that we are near the end of Goldilocks. But is she really dead today? The arguments for keeping optimistic after a day with 98% of the S&P500 down with US shares off 3-4% and EM shares down 5-10% is difficult if not delusional. We will get a lot more data ahead that could whipsaw the negative view of the US in 1Q and beyond - causing some whipsaw in rate outlooks. We could also get some real intervention from Asia to support their markets - as they have a history of not liking volatile markets it seems probable that the pain in Asian shares has some floor - albeit lower than last night. Finally, the Greenspan put from the 90s is assumed widely to be repeated by Bernanke - and the moves today in rates support that. For the USD lower rates, higher inflation should lead to USD weakness but the most astonishing story today was that the pain for the USD came in JPY and a bit of CHF and not in EUR or GBP or in other places where growth and rates remain attractive. So as the market moves from February to March - which clearly is set to come in as a Lion - the question is whether there is a lamb anywhere to be found let alone a sleeping girl in a Bear's cabin. Seems clear that JPY 115 won't be as easy as 118 was today to break over the next few days. Further, the EUR 1.3250 seems cheap in comparison as the EUR/JPY has pulled back from 159.50 to 156.30. The best anecdote for a bad carry day is going long those that have plenty of cash - following that its all about CHF and SEK as we enter the darker den of a new month with mixed metaphors and a very queasy stomach.

USA BAY 22:38 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD

Pivot : 1.96475

Our preference : Short positions below 1.96475 with targets @ 1.95925 & 1.9568

Above 1.96475 look for further upside with 1.9674 & 1.9699 as targets.

USA BAY 22:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   

GBP/JPY

Pivot : 232.14

Short positions below 232.14 with targets @ 229.75 & 229.5

Alternative scenario : Above 232.14 further upside with 232.5 & 233.1 as targets.

USA BAY 22:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY

Pivot : 156.55

Short positions below 156.55 with targets @ 155.75 & 155.25 i
Alternative scenario : Above 156.55 further upside with 156.83 & 157 as targets.

USA BAY 22:34 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
That was for usd/jpy

USA BAY 22:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Pivot : 118.25

Short positions below 118.25 with targets @ 117.5 & 117.27

Above 118.25 further upside with 118.7 & 119.15 as targets.

USA BAY 22:30 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
[NZ] Dwelling consents, buoyed by an increase in apartment consents, turned to ...
[NZ] Dwelling consents, buoyed by an increase in apartment consents, turned to rebound by 3.9% in January after falling sharply over the past 3mths. However excl the volatile apartment sector, home building approvals fell by 4.5% after Decs 2.8% gain to be 2% lower on the yr. Value of approvals of residential buildings and renovation meanwhile increased 7.2% from a yr ago while the value of non residential buildings gained by 2.5%. Following steep falls of 4.9% in Dec, 11.6% in Nov and 5.8% in Oct; January's rebound is modest in all accounts. The trend in consents has also continued to decline to be dwn 4% on the mth. RBNZ will be somewhat relieved, although the data is volatile and runs contrary to the recent pick up in housing mkt indicators (in terms of sales and prices)

GVI john 22:28 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3236	117.98	1.2179	1.9615	1.1664	0.7875	156.15
High	1.3260	120.75	1.2307	1.9673	1.1672	0.7946	159.27
Low	1.3161	117.50	1.2145	1.9594	1.1590	0.7875	155.73
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/27/2007					
5 day 	1.3170	120.40	1.2313	1.9600	1.1614	0.7907	158.56
10 day	1.3154	120.08	1.2334	1.9568	1.1631	0.7883	157.95
20 day 	1.3075	120.50	1.2397	1.9583	1.1714	0.7824	157.56
50 day 	1.3044	120.23	1.2386	1.9584	1.1716	0.7831	156.82
100 day	1.2981	118.85	1.2358	1.9389	1.1551	0.7782	154.28
200 day	1.2851	117.40	1.2364	1.9032	1.1373	0.7652	150.90

Atlanta South 22:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
That what I like about this market as nothing stays the same
too long.

Atlanta South 22:18 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
MTl JP/
That should have read 156.19. Sorry up too many hrs.

manchester 22:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
oil man, where do you see the bottom for yen against the majors or do you see this unwinding carrying on for a few days?

Cannes Oil man 22:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:49 GMT February 27, 2007

It might well just do so...No one is buying US$ atm..It's yen firming not US$ going up at all..Just look at euro..The tide could turn in asian trade or European open..

I'm for the moment being still long 1.3090 E$ , as for the moment it's still moving up..Watch 1.3180.

London Gooner 22:09 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
AUDUSD - Nice daily inside day. Implies reversal with downside focus.
It may be a good one to hasn't gone too wild today yet but signalled
it may be about to do so.
The pair has on dailies responded well in the past to inside days and went on to make very good moves.

GENEVA DS 22:08 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
FINALLY.... the unexpected arrives slowly.... still the same targets for contrarians.... Cable....18500 soonish... EURCHF 15800 soonish and EURJPY 14000 soonish.... yes things can change quickly.... look posts earlier this month... good trades

Philadelphia Caba 22:07 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
FOREX: White House & Treasury Watching Markets
Traders note that the White House and Treasury are watching the markets after the DJIA closed over 400 pts lower. The White House spokesman stated earlier this afternoon that the US economy is fundamentally sound. Dow Jones reports that the Treasury is continuing its monitoring of the markets, as it regularly does. Traders now wonder if talk of the Plunge Protection Team will re-emerge with reports late last year that Treasury Paulson has re-assembled a
market watching team that meets quite regularly. Buzz words are already circulating in Asia with traders looking for stories of margin calls and hedge fund losses to emerge. Only last week, the press reported that margin debt hi a record $285.6 bln in January and the highest since March 2000 before a two-year stock decline. This has only added to market angst. ifr

USA BAY 22:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
[NORTH AMERICA FX CLOSE] The Jpy and Chf were bought back heavily by fund accou...
[NORTH AMERICA FX CLOSE] The Jpy and Chf were bought back heavily by fund accounts on the crosses, the bidding combining with soft US durable goods orders data to send the respective pairs plunging. The SNB's Jordan aided the Chf gains by saying rates normalisation is needed for long term price stability, reigniting expectations of a 50bps rate hike in Mar. See page

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. Annaland Bob 22:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY (daily chart / 10yrs) started the day 200 pips above and went down through 100/144 DMA and only bounced off the 200 DMA ... as far the charts can show, that never happened before ... FWIW

LKWD JJ 21:49 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
oil man you think cable will hold up ? under pressure from gbpjpy.

dc CB 21:49 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
The door was too small.

04:47 ET Sudden, sharp decline in DJIA around 3 due to tab delay, according to WSJ - DJ :DJ reports that the sudden, sharp decline by the Dow Jones Industrial Average shortly before 3 p.m. Tuesday was triggered by a tabulation delay by Dow Jones data systems, which calculates the average. There was a temporary lag in calculation of the 30 large-stock average due to a surge in order flows as the market continued to tumble in afternoon trading, much like a clogged pipe. Briefing.com

Cannes Oil man 21:44 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
For the moment no one is buying US$...It's a YEN move , and on some pairs the yen push is helping the US$ (the thin NZD for exemple)..

Euro not budging from the high's..It's a very different move than the last unwinding at the start of the year , where it was a Euro , GBP , etc tanking , and $/Y reluctantly following.

LKWD JJ 21:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ge11ja 21:38 GMT February 27, 2007
LKWD JJ 21:35 GMT February 27, 2007

Think that falls further, lot of leveraged positions long gold/short yen out there
=============================
maybe margin call liquidation

London AH 21:42 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
I just thought that gold would go up now, as a safe haven. maybe it will just extremely volatile...

Gen dk 21:39 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney ge11ja 21:38 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:35 GMT February 27, 2007

Think that falls further, lot of leveraged positions long gold/short yen out there

Cannes Oil man 21:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:35 GMT February 27, 2007

Just look at yields to see it..loosing 900 BPS in 2 days.

LKWD JJ 21:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
dont see a flight to quality as gold -$25.

Syd 21:30 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Chinese Stock Slump,Risk Aversion Hits Aussie Dlr

Heightened risk aversion hits carry trades hard overnight; brings Australian dollar back below 0.7900 level. Rushed exit from carry positions triggered by overnight Chinese stock market slump following suggestions Chinese authorities would extend a crack-down on illegal securities trading, says Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ Bank; "this is clearly not a good environment for the AUD. Volatility is back and is unlikely to fall in the near-term." AUD/USD may be sapped back to support at 0.7860-0.7870 where a break would pose risk of a more dramatic pull-back. Pair last trades at 0.7884.

Mtl JP 21:26 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 21:14 / on what platform ?

Gen dk 21:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Atlanta South 21:14 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Long EUR/JPY @ 157.19 tp @ 156.47 stop @ 157.01.

Hong Kong Qindex 21:10 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the initial downside targeting point for this month is 117.12.

Hong Kong Qindex 21:08 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The next downside target is 117.04 - 117.12*.

USA BAY 21:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
THANKS DR Q

Hong Kong Qindex 21:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 91.16 // 92.23*.

Lahore FM 21:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 21:02 GMT February 27, 2007
Thanx Caba. will be on watch out for tokyo action reaction.

USA BAY 21:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
[CAD/JPY] is coming under sustained pressure from model fund accounts, ...
[CAD/JPY] is coming under sustained pressure from model fund accounts, the break under the 102 mark prompting a further exit from carry trades and pushing Usd/Cad higher. Offers at 1.1665 continue to limit the pair's gains, but Eur/Cad remains on the up amid talk bids have been raised to the 1.5380 area. Note oil prices holding towards the top of recent ranges to provide a counter, while gold prices are only modestly down on the day. Should the EM jitters spread into these sectors - which looks unlikely unless more reasons are added to profit taking in Chinese equities as the cause for the current meltdown - the Cad is likely to suffer further. Tech accounts have been prominent sellers of Usd/Cad during the month and are likely to retain a sell on upticks bias. The 21-day m.a. at 1.1713 is likely to act as the key near term chartpoint.

Charlotte TH 21:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Longing eurjpy here at 156.20, usdjpy here at 118, gbpjpy at 231.44.

Hong Kong Qindex 21:03 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:00 GMT :

Hong Kong Qindex 20:45 GMT February 27, 2007
GBP/JPY : The next downside target is 229.80* - 229.85.

Philadelphia Caba 21:02 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:56 GMT
imo, I'd wait for Tokyo reaction this evening ..btw, welcome aboard again! gt/gl my friend!

Syd 21:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
US Stocks Plunge; DJIA Sees Biggest Drop In 5 Years

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its worst point loss in years Tuesday, after mounting concerns about risk set off by an overnight selloff in Chinese stocks produced a rout in U.S. shares that escalated through the afternoon.

A plunge of around 200 points in just 15 minutes of midafternoon trading left the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 546 points at its Tuesday low, the worst decline for the average in more than five years. The drop wiped out all of the index's gains on the year. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index also plunged into negative territory on the year. Both recently were down about 3% on the day after being down 4% at their lows.

Strategists who had called the morning's deep selloff orderly acknowledged that investors had become alarmed as negative sentiment snowballed.

"I think this is panic selling by people who haven't seen a move this big in years," said Jeff Shaw, head trader at the Timber Hill LLC market-making unit of Interactive Brokers Group Inc. "We haven't seen a move like this in a long time."

One indication of traders' new mood: After months languishing at or below 12 points, the CBOE Market Volatility Index, which measures volatility in stock index option prices on the S&P 500 and is a sign of investors' fear of a market drop, spiked 57% to 17.45 points. The index is heading for its highest close since the spring 2006 correction, though it's still off the record intraday high of 23.49 points seen on June 14.

Officials at the New York Stock Exchange, owned by NYSE Group Inc. (NYX), were looking into the cause of the steep drop. Volumes were extremely high, with NYSE composite volume approaching 4 billion shares and easily topping the previous record of 3.58 billion shares. Volume on the Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ) was 2.75 billion with 15 minutes left to trade, within striking distance of the record of 3.09 billion shares.

The drop came after the period when a circuit breakers could have been triggered and was below the level needed to trip them anyway. Trading on the New York Stock Exchange can be halted by a 10% drop - roughly 1,250 points on the DJIA - before 2:30 p.m., but trading continues if the markets drop later.

Some stock dealers said investors didn't seem to be worried enough.

"People aren't panicking," one trader said. "Maybe this is a bad thing."

USA BAY 21:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Of the antipodeans, [NZD/USD] has been most badly affected by the EM markets co...
Of the antipodeans, [NZD/USD] has been most badly affected by the EM markets contagion, an extremely long market undermined by lowered inflation expectations in the RBNZ business managers" survey (18.17GMT). Real money funds in particular have been exitting the pair, while Japanese investors have been standout sellers of Nzd/Jpy. Bids in the latter are expected around 82.00 and an 82.85 retracement target, though these look vulnerable as risk appetites wither amid the widening equity fallout from China - note the Dow down over 400 points. Aud/Nzd offers are expected in the 1.1295-1.1300 mark. The next data focus is NZ Jan building consents at 21.45GMT (fell 4.9% m/m in Dec). Any more signs of softness in this key sector could see RBNZ rate hike hopes pulled in, causing more pain for the Kiwi. Bids in place at 0.71 are likely to provide an initial prop, though stops are in place under 0.6985.

Gen dk 21:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 21:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

What is your bias for gbp/jpy, more down side to come and also could you kindly comment on aud/jpy. thanks

Cannes Oil man 21:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 20:49 GMT February 27, 2007

Have to see what happens in a few hours when Japan opens..

Problem with buying yen here after such a move is market could make a reality check as japan won't raise before the next 6 months, but rapatriation could keep going , definitely not the time to bottom pick..Fact it's never a good idea to bottom pick on yen.

Charlotte TH 20:57 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 05:52 GMT February 21, 2007 sold small nzdusd 0.7024.
 
Charlotte TH 07:38 GMT February 22, 2007 small short nzdusd 0.7056.
 
Charlotte TH 21:10 GMT February 20, 2007 short nzdusd at 0.7014.added to earlier shorts at 0.6937 and 0.6975.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
 
closed all  at 0.6980 for a load of pips.

Hong Kong Qindex 20:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : The current expected trading ranges are 1.2146* - [1.2204] - 1.2263*.

Lahore FM 20:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
today's usdjpy 117.50 low to remain in place next few days.

Gaza Ibiza 20:53 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, good day sir, what the difference between speculative selling and non speculative selling on your model? TIA?

Syd 20:53 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD slides further from opening levels as further carry trade unwinding, triggered by global equities market selloff, dents Kiwi; "people have been jumping out of the carry trades and basically the yen has gained against the (U.S) dollar and pretty much everything else," says local bank trader in Wellington; pair last 0.6984 vs 0.7030 open, while NZD/JPY 82.29 vs 83.40. Thinks NZD/USD could head toward 0.6850 today, while NZD/JPY vulnerable, may go below 82.00.

Hong Kong Qindex 20:51 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:13 GMT February 26, 2007
EUR/JPY : The consolidating range is [157.90] - [159.01] - [159.88]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 157.90. Projected supporting points are located at 155.15 and 157.08.

Lahore FM 20:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
nzd down 128 pips to 0.6976.

Hong Kong Qindex 20:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Anything below 0.7836 is not good this week.

Sydney ACC 20:49 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 20:41 GMT February 27, 2007
Where to from here for the Kiwi?
Uridahsi market will probably be a little dry for Kiwi for the ext couple of weeks.

Hong Kong Qindex 20:45 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : The next downside target is 229.80* - 229.85.

Toronto MRC 20:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Holy smokes my test on dowusd got stopped out faster then I could blink. What are peoples thoughts on gold?

Hong Kong Qindex 20:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:24 GMT February 25, 2007
AUD/USD : A consolidating range is located at [0.7836] - [0.7903]. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 0.7903. A projected supporting level is located at 0.7800 - 0.7809.

Cannes Oil man 20:41 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Yes we didn't get too far from it from 232.

You must live in the future not in the past , my recom was to start buying 232 to 235 for 240..It went to 238.20 , still a very profitable trade.

Syd 20:41 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 20:20 GMT Hi, congratuations on our call on your first day back, it was delayed a couple of days but correct. cheers

Gen dk 20:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

SINGAPORE GFX 20:24 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

You were calling for 240 in gbp/jpy a few days back.

Cannes Oil man 20:22 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Today we've seen reality sets in ...

People who were adding in yen pairs , will have a hard time.

Lahore FM 20:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf 1.2178.a 2nd one after 1.2299.

Cape Town 20:19 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
I posted this last week on GVI /// Cycles - Fwiw, according to Marty Armstrong's PEI models, this weekend is a major high for his multi-year global business cycle. Btw, he was also pretty accurate with his commodity forecast back in 2000.

KL KL 20:18 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
long usdjpy 117.86 sl 76...lets see

Dallas GEP 20:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Closed USD/CAD longs and eur/gbp longs

Rye,NY et 20:15 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Welcome to Black Tuesday! Dow off 500+
Eur/Usd...The Bearish Channel Resistance has been taken out. The Bear Channel is now off the table. The first Bullish Trendline resistance has also been broken, so we are clearly in a Short-term Uptrend. Today, the next major T/L Resistance comes in at 13290...
GL/GT

USA BAY 20:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
MADRID MM,

EXPECT THE UNEXPECTED. That was one good prediction. bravo

vilnius donse 20:12 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
it should be a war ... tonight.
:)

USA BAY 20:12 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY ED,

I think you got your answer on cable.

Atlanta South 20:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM/
Tks for the reply.

Sydney ACC 20:09 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NZD/JPY down 4.5% since this time yesterday.

USA BAY 20:08 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY could head to 225 soon

Kaunas 20:08 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Christ....
I don't think i have seen anything like that before (gpb/jpy)

Lahore FM 20:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
gold down 23.think got out too quick with 7.90.

Syd 20:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
US Stocks Plunge; DJIA Falls More Than 500 Points, 4%
US Stocks Plunge; DJIA , S&P 500, Nasdaq All Down 4%

Lahore FM 20:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
nzd down 116 pips.

Lndn Frnd 20:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Antwerp ML 12:51 GMT February 27, 2007
GOLD-
by the way i think theres some nice money to
be made going short GOLD. I think fear of slowdown will dominate next few trading sessions, thus sparking sell-off in gold,
my target 650

v.good

USA BAY 20:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Please elaborate on that. thanks

Lahore FM 20:02 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 19:55 GMT February 27, 2007

1.2360 area good resistance to sell into.move down to 1.3140 would tell of what lies in the medium term.

Sydney ACC 20:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Anyone wanrt to take a stab at support levels for the Kiwi?

USA BAy 20:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
next support for usd/chf 1.2143

Tallinn viies 20:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
huge profit taking on all stock indecies

USA BAY 19:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
All those who were short jpy, it is suicide.

vilnius donse 19:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hi folks

im taking long on usdjpy here. sstp 117. lets see..

there is a good suport 118. - 118.20

Ldn Times 19:55 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Watch out 118 usdjpy later on - big drop down there 115 or lower the week

Atlanta South 19:55 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
May I have your valued views on the EUR/USD for the
short-med term. Tks & gt.

USA BAY 19:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY may go to 230-231 today

Kaunas 19:46 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
time to long some GBP/JPY?

Lahore FM 19:24 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 19:20 GMT February 27, 2007
Alimin,thanx,absolutely nice to see you here too.the chf strength of past two days may be short lived.for example eurchf has done this trick from 31st jan to 6th feb as well.did not last.reversed to even higher highs for eurchf.

Makassar Alimin 19:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
FM, nice to see you back! may I ask your view regarding chf strength against the contis? is this the beginning of a lot more chf strength or do you see this as pullback for continuation later on? TIA

St. Annaland Bob 19:15 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   

BRICK markets look to check the BREAK levels of euphoria traders.

St. Annaland Bob 19:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 17:40 GMT February 27, 2007

happy day! ... coffee and sail waiting for you here, about time to show your face, king! ... TRY used to get slaps in the world famous Turkish baths, the aroma of Iranian caviar makes the blend just better ... live happy and trade safe, see you soon

madrid mm 19:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
looks like a heavy day mañana number wise.....

Charlotte TH 19:09 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Just saw this on IFR news feed:

"[19:04 US FED: Discount Rate Meeting Minutes - Further Tightening?] "

Stayed tuned for more details.

Lahore FM 19:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
all commodity pairs showing early signs of usd strength.durable orders and housing and confidence mix might work well with these pairs.

Bangkok bkk 18:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cable collapse is coming also. Although it has been delayed for 24 hours.

Bangkok bkk 18:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD correction is coming.... target 0.7860 :)

Lahore FM 18:52 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 18:35 GMT February 27, 2007
quite agree with your observation on dollar index.

Lahore FM 18:48 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:34 GMT February 27, 2007
Macau Sofia 18:03 GMT February 27, 2007
LAHORE FM--can you share your downside target for gold? thanks
--
687.90 short closed half at 683.20for 4.70 -stops for rest at 687.90.
--
closed all at 680 for 7.90 cumulative.

London AH 18:44 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Long target for gold?

manchester 18:39 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
thanks Jaap for the advice, will take it

Jhb Dee 18:38 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Is anyone holding usdcad short? I'm in at 1.1627

UK Alex 18:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:32 GMT February 27, 2007
Completed a nice retracement on $ index today, so possibility of some upside is now looking more promising.

Lahore FM 18:34 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Macau Sofia 18:03 GMT February 27, 2007
LAHORE FM--can you share your downside target for gold? thanks
--
687.90 short closed half at 683.20for 4.70 -stops for rest at 687.90.

NY Ed 18:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Why Cable tanking ??? any thoughts

Lahore FM 18:32 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
lkwd jj 17:05 GMT February 27, 2007
LAHORE FM is usdchf still a buy or are all bets off?
==
still sticking to the view.

The Netherlands Purk 18:28 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
manchester 17:59 GMT February 27, 2007

A nice strat that works is to lower the s/l, or to break even, or some pips in plus. This way you have a free ride. But looking at the profit you have now i wouldgo for the second one.

manchester 18:18 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
anyone dare short yen yet?

Sofia mik 18:15 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
market is against me :)

Philadelphia Caba 18:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
chf:
Jordan Hints At 25bp Hike At March Meeting
Despite inflation near zero Thomas Jordan, who is set to join the SNB"s three person governing body in May, is hinting at a pre-cautionary 25bp hike in rates at the March meeting. ifr.

UK Alex 18:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
An inconvenient truth

Charlotte TH 18:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
17:50 USD/CHF: Jordan Hints At 25bp Hike At March Meeting] New York February
27. Despite inflation near zero Thomas Jordan, who is set to join the SNB"s
three person governing body in May, is hinting at a pre-cautionary 25bp hike in
rates at the March meeting. Acknowledging that inflationary pressures do not
warrant a rate hike, Jordan noted that the recent drop in inflation has
benefited from lower oil prices, and that weakness in the Swiss Franc increase
the risk that inflation will surge later in the year. He also noted that recent
economic data point to the fact that the Swiss economy is operating above its
long term growth potential. USD/CHF has triggered stops on the strength of these
remarks, hitting 1.2180 at the low, the stops were located just below 1.2200.
Technical indicators show that the greenback is oversold at current levels, and
it will be difficult for the Swissy to generate much further short term progress
until these technicals have been unwound, however overall pressure remains for a
test of the year"s low at 1.2110.

Sofia mik 18:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
long usdchf
2189
gl/gt

NY Ed 18:07 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Stockholm za... could you give me a quick translation of that info on ccable ?? Thanks'

Stockholm za 18:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   

GBP/USD is 7,65, 1w is 5,95, 1m is 6,00
3m is 6.0, and 6m vol has been given at 6.08,
The 1W >> 2M - 25 Delta Risk Reversal is given at 0,10 GBP call..
Happy trades....

Macau Sofia 18:03 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM--can you share your downside target for gold? thanks

manchester 17:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
anyone suggest how low eur/chf will go down to? still have shorts from 16225 and have taken some profits at 16155.

NY Ed 17:53 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM...it's words like that, make me stay long..thanks

Gen dk 17:52 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK Kevin 17:52 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone notice any corelation between global stock market slump and USD/JPY movement of today.

London The Holy Grail 17:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Some very agressive usd defence onto cable and eurusd highs noted, as US stocks and yields are falling abruptly. Limit could be somewhere 1.3280 for such defences. Maybe to be seen tomorrow once aseans to act heavily again.

UsdCad 1.1580/1.1600 holds for now, weather oil rebound over 62 bucks would maintain It s tone and move towars the 65/66 dollars per barrel very likely we bounce down there.

Syd 17:42 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
The Swiss National Bank will in all likelihood continue to move rates higher despite an inflation level near zero, a high-ranking SNB official said Tuesday.

Swiss Econ Growth Seen Above Potential Currently - Weak Franc Increases Inflationary Pressure -Official

EU theEUROqueen 17:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
happy day Bob..

so far so good with our long bob keep long..and watch the EUR/TYR..

happy trade

Washington MRM 17:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 17:23 GMT February 27, 2007

I think that the multiple topside failures will lead the GBP/US$ to fall and test lower levels in Asia. Probably try to push down to 1.9580. Nationwide housing prices out and may remind market of robust housing sector in UK. I still expect to see 1.97, just not today.

London AH 17:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Financial times quotes if ISM manufacturing index on Thursday comes in under 50 likely eur/usd to hit 1.3365

madrid mm 17:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 17:05 GMT February 27, 2007
ur guess is as good as mine 8-)

NY Ed 17:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
CABLE 1.9700 do we see it today !!!!!!

UK Alex 17:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:13 GMT February 27, 2007
The point is that external demand drives about 65% of all investment in China and it will be interesting to see what measures they take to cushion the blow. A reversal in global commodity price is unlikely as China has enormous resources at its disposal which it can use to contain any economic weakness.

Makassar Alimin 17:19 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
well done, just closed eurchf short from this morning 1.6155 (initial target was 1.6161), flat now and looking for further clue, i think it would bounce from here, but at the moment momentum is too strong from the short side

Mtl JP 17:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 17:05 / a GOOD, solid, prolonged recession in the US would probably see the trade deficit with China shift somewhat. Ceteris paribus, that would mean LESS USD in the hands of PBoC, and since China pegs and prints yuans in exchange for the US fiats, it would mean LESS liquidity within China. also see my 14:51 below

NY RP 17:12 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Liquidation of Gold may be short lived. Underlying strength is apparent and dips are part of the game. 750 next stop and then off to the penthouse. USD Index is down on one knee. To see clear broad based selling cannot be over looked. I laugh when I hear pundits say housing will not have a spill over affect. Funny as it was responsible for the wealth affect on the way up but no consequences on the way down. My thoughts are the housing market sell off is just getting underway. Common sense is all that is needed. GL

RIC fxq 17:10 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 17:05 GMT

none Alex, they just dump all their crap into the EU and help out the 10% unemployemnt rate that oilman alluded to. :)

NY Ed 17:09 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone see Cable making a higher move, it seats there with all the positive Techs but NOTHING

lkwd jj 17:09 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
if gbp can take out 19677 it can make a larger move toward197730-40 area if not 1.99

lkwd jj 17:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
$y 200 ma daily 118.34 maybe the selling stops or slows for a contra....

lkwd jj 17:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM is usdchf still a buy or are all bets off?

UK Alex 17:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:55 GMT February 27, 2007
What effect would a U.S. recession have on China's economy?

hk ab 17:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
KL//I give up dlr/jpy long.

Cannes Oil man 17:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:40 GMT February 27, 2007

The GBP , EURO , or ANY pair has NOT gone up for a few years due to their bullishness.

The problem is with the over valuation of the US$ , not with the bullishness , super growth of other countries...(Heck there is still 10% unemplyed in europe, close to 0% or 1% growth)..

Mtl JP 16:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:41 / ...rose by over 100% for the last 52 weeks....so what is a 9% drop ?

What it is is degree of manifestation of Nature's Law as observed and used by Fibonacci

Also note the relative speed: 100% / 52 weeks = little less then 2% per week (straight line)

9% - IF IT WERE in one week - would be almost 5x as fast, but in the other direction. But it was not.

Gen dk 16:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 16:55 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:43 GMT February 27, 2007

i do not know......

Hong Kong Qindex 16:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 04:35 GMT February 27, 2007
EUR/GBP : My cycle references indicate that [0.6701] - [0.6711] - [0.6755] is a consolidating range. A projected barrier is located at 0.6729* - 0.6731* and a projected resistant level is positioning at 0.6779. A projected supporting level is expected at 0.6672 - 0.6677.

Shenzhen Laowen 16:53 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hello my friends, is Eur/Try a sell at the current level (1.8700)? GT and GL!

Lahore FM 16:52 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
manchester it is a multihourly top and has risen 13 dolls in 2 hours to trade here.think can have a short term short trade here.

Bodrum OEE 16:51 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Edited (thank you for the kind contributions in the form of posted replies)

Cannes Oil man

Sir,

I do not intend to oppose you for the sake of it (moreover I see you are a master on aspects of investing and have the courage to speak out, both of which I respect).

However, USD was undervalued against the GBP and CAD. It can move higher under the stream of current developments (even against the JPY, yet, possibly after the present correction runs its steam out)

I wish all of you best of skill and luck.

I will exit the forum for a while.

Kind regards

manchester 16:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM, whats your thinking behind the gold trade?

Lahore FM 16:48 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
short gold 687.90.

Bangkok bkk 16:47 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 16:39 GMT

Agree. Both GBP and CAD 're overvalue against USD at current level.

That made EUR/GBP cross medium-term trend reversed also.

Anyway, in the long run, if USD continue falling against the EURO, GBP/USD will follow the EURO eventually.

IMHO.

UK Alex 16:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:41 GMT February 27, 2007
Commodities, commodities, commodities... what does it tell you?

Toronto MRC 16:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 16:39 GMT February 27, 2007
Cannes Oil man

Cannes with all respect I would tend to agree with OEE. China's stock market troubles may signal a pending decline (near-term) in demand for raw materials. I was looking for around 118 usdcad at the end of 07. I will add to that later. Thanks for your posts.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 16:37 GMT - GBP/JPY : My bias is on the downside. The market is going to tackle the barrier at 231.95 // 233.25*.

Lahore FM 16:42 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Dubai Tony 16:33 GMT February 27, 2007
good short term support here.

madrid mm 16:41 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
you got to love Gold.....

the Shanghai stock exchange rose by over 100% for the last 52 weeks....so what is a 9% drop ?

RIC fxq 16:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 16:31 GMT

ah yes, and GBPUSD is a screaming bargain because of its powerful economy, underpriced realestate, trade surplus, etc.

LoL

Bodrum OEE 16:39 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man

Sir,

I do not intend to oppose you for the sake of it (moreover I see you are a master on aspects of investing and have the courage to speak out, both of which I respect).

However, USD was undervalued against the GBP and CAD. Both can move higher under the stream of current developments

I wish all of you best of skill and luck.

I will exit the forum for a while.

Kind regards

SINGAPORE GFX 16:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Could you please share your bias for gbp/jpy please. thanks

Hong Kong Qindex 16:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:06 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/CAD : Consolidating ranges are located at [1.1562] - [1.1590] and [1.1639] - [1.1690]. A projected supporting level is located at 1.1468 - 1.1471*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.1713* - 1.1730*.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 07:00 GMT February 27, 2007
EUR/CAD : My cycle references indicate that [1.5154] - [1.5249] - [1.5301] - [1.5320] is a consolidating range. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1.5320. A projected resistant level is located at 1.5541 - 1.5548. A barrier is expected at 1.5474 - 1.5504.

Toronto MRC 16:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Gold spike in the last 20min might signal perception that market fall in China is not anticipated to continue much more. Picked up some usddow at 12495 for a few points. imho

Dubai Tony 16:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hi Lahore.Sir whats your view on USD/JPY.TIA

USA BAY 16:32 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
With markets turning more risk averse over the past session, the [CHF] is t...
With markets turning more risk averse over the past session, the [CHF] is thus finding support as traders unwind short positions of the funding currency of choice. This has sent Usd/Chf sharply off the 1.2300+ recent highs, so far hitting a 1.2229 low. The loss of the previous 1.2278 low now technically outs on hold hopes of a bounce towards 1.2372-90, and targets an extension lower below 1.2200. The Chf had also received a mild prop yesterday amid some modest safe haven demand amid heightened tensions between Iran and the West. Dips below 1.2200 will likely find decent initial support, however tomorrow's KOF leading indicator will be key in determining how far the recent move can go.

Bodrum OEE 16:31 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   


In GBP/JPY low 200s are possible (following swings or otherwise) in mid or long term corresponding present time (i.e. five years from now is not meant)

hk ab 16:31 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
My guess is tomorrow jap official will start jawboning.

Bangkok bkk 16:31 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 16:23 GMT

I don't trade GBP/JPY but I guess GBP/JPY should test below 231.00 by the end of the week, or early next week. IMHO

Cannes Oil man 16:31 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 16:27 GMT February 27, 2007

Who's going to buy US$ , while it's so overvalued vs every pair on the board?

Diversification , Risk lifting, Deficits, Democrats ..The US$ road is paved to the downside in the future..

GBP might be overvalued vs the YEN , but definitely not vs the US$.

Ottawa Mike 16:30 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 16:27 GMT February 27, 2007

when i said 200 pips away i ment that your target of 1.9440 is 200 pips away from current level, i wasnt suggesting your shorted it 200 pips ago

Charlotte TH 16:28 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 16:16 GMT February 27, 2007
CHARLOTTE TH,

Congrats on your yen trades. Do you think more unwinding to come. tia

********************************************

Thanks USA BAY,
I think the unwind might be coming to an end for now. Looking to short jpy for now.

Bangkok bkk 16:27 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Ottawa Mike 16:20 GMT

My GBP short since Monday @ 1.9645.... not 200 pips away.

Come on, who gonna buy expensive GBP?
Those big name 's going to buy GBP/USD for sure, just not at this current level.

Cannes Oil man 16:26 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Long term wise , one could look for 6 month to parity , and 4 years to .80 ..in US/CAD , that is if present state stay same (with no reason to change for now..Technically and fundamentally).

Cannes Oil man 16:24 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 16:17 GMT February 27, 2007
USD is undervalued against CAD, thereby avoiding shorts could prove to be useful
---

US$ is extremely OVER valued vs the CAD..

CAD's main problem is the politic , and social , however US is catching up with both problem , thus over performing CAD , in the years ahead is a thing of the past for the US$.
This is how i see it.

Toronto MRC 16:24 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:22 GMT February 27, 2007

Concern over China relative to reduction in demand for com.

Bodrum OEE 16:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD follow up

...not in a very short time frame but in the mid to long term that is

hk ab 16:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
KL//will you be happy with 30 pips ninja profit on dlr/jpy?

SINGAPORE GFX 16:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
BANGKOK BKK,

Where do you see gbp/jpy falling to. Thanks

hk ab 16:22 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
anyone see special reason the cause of this dlr/cad spike? is it just due to the break of cad/jpy support? TIA.

Bangkok bkk 16:22 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP rally + GBP/JPY collapse = GBP/USD next move lower.

Ottawa Mike 16:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 16:15 GMT February 27, 2007

Your short on the cable is 200 pips away, as much as id love to short it and make those 200 pips im curious to know why you think its going to fall that much in the next couple days

Charlotte TH 16:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 21:11 GMT February 26, 2007
Charlotte TH 21:30 GMT February 22, 2007
small short added to previous gbpjpy shorts at 236 and lower 237 at 237.72 now.

-----------------------------------------------------
closed short from 237.72 at 236.80 for 92 pips.keeping others for lower targets at 235 area.

-----------------------------------------------------

Closed all at 234.

Bodrum OEE 16:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD is undervalued against CAD, thereby avoiding shorts could prove to be useful

USA BAY 16:16 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
CHARLOTTE TH,

Congrats on your yen trades. Do you think more unwinding to come. tia

Bangkok bkk 16:15 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD rally as expected, targeting around 1.3260-65 to TP.

EUR/GBP ...still bullish, holding long for 0.6775+ next 2-3 days...

GBP/USD ... downside risk... holding short for 1.9430/40 and below...

GL. & GT.

hk ab 16:14 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
no stops placed under 118.70 may tell those shorters to exit for p/t and reshrot tomorrow.

Charlotte TH 16:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:11 GMT February 27, 2007
what if it passes 157.10-20?

******************************

Long some more.

Cannes Oil man 16:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Re $/CAD (posted on GVI , and reposting here) :

Cannes Oil man 16:06 GMT February 27, 2007
$/CAD closing below 1.1667 tonight, makes today's move a spike , though no real surprise in a profit taking after a 250 pips move.
A move Above 1.1670 roughly and a daily close , could however make further upside..

Here 1.1660//70 , it's a great short.
---

Adding to above post, CAD has seen a move against YEN , but unless daily closes above/at 70 , this is a good short spike.
gl gt

hk ab 16:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
what if it passes 157.10-20?

CT Cris 16:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 14:40 GMT February 27, 2007
Eur.jpy may decline till 157.20-10 then rise again till 158.00.

======
just to remind you.

hk ab 16:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
add more longs on dlr/jpy tight s/l.

Lahore FM 16:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Bay,usdcad rise is showing the way shortly.

Cali mmm 16:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
What is happening to USD / CAD ?

Lahore FM 16:03 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 15:58 GMT February 27, 2007
think downside is done or overdone. see it higher.

USA BAY 15:58 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

USD/CHF still looks bearish as the next support could be 1.2173 as euro may advance to 1.33 area. Pls comment. ty

KL KL 15:57 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
ok in long usdjpy 118.77 sl 77....lets see. Ninja Day today....when nikkie falls $$ got to go somewhere

UK Alex 15:57 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Emerging markets tumble as China fear spills over

Lahore FM 15:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
seek 1.2360 looks like a reasonable target.

hong kong seek 15:52 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:50 GMT February 27, 2007
wt's yr target?

Lahore FM 15:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 15:48 GMT February 27, 2007
seek,my post a while back favours long usdchf 1.2220.

hong kong seek 15:48 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:42 GMT February 27, 2007
may i kindly know yr view on $chf ? gl and gt

London The Holy Grail 15:47 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Very largerly talking eurusd might be seen around 1.37 by april/may. In between still squeezes, yingyangs and euristics - except the Shangai Stock exchange does not drop another 10 pct next days.

hk ab 15:45 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
anyone wants to join a brave s/t long dlr/jpy here?

long 118.90 stop day low

UK Alex 15:45 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq, I wonder how exposed the average Joe is to the performance of the stock market compared with when the last recession occured.

Lahore FM 15:42 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
1.1660/80 can be the first stop for usdcad

Charlotte TH 15:36 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Upbeat comments from Dutch central banker Wellink are hitting the tape. He says
that ECB rates are still low and that oil prices and wages could boost
inflation. The economy continues to operate at full speed, Wellink says,
suggesting several more ECB hikes ahead.

hk ab 15:34 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
oilman, may I ask your stop on dlr/cad short?

UK Alex 15:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 15:20 GMT February 27, 2007
We're at different points in the economic cycle so it is hard to tell what effect it will have just yet.

hk ab 15:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
feel some stops are placed at 1.2244 on dlr/chf front.

RIC fxq 15:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:15 GMT

pretty skeptical myself as I don't see CAD, UK, EU economies cranking along undisturbed if the US goes into a downturn, perhaps EU ok but Canada certainly WILL feel the impact.

Cannes Oil man 15:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:11 GMT February 27, 2007


I just entered my first short right here.

UK Alex 15:15 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:13 GMT February 27, 2007
In reply to RIC fxq.

UK Alex 15:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Let's hope so.

London Gooner 15:13 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cable below 1.9620 risks 1.9550 area.
Seems struggling ahead of 1.9678 and EURUSD may correct from current levels.

hk revdax 15:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 14:43 GMT //The Chinese stocks are coming down to a more advantageous level to buy....lol....you can look at it either way, like $ now

hk ab 15:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
oilman, per your suggestion on dlr/cad short, I have 1.1625 entry in my mind, you?

RIC fxq 15:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:08 GMT

goldilocks scenario in other words?

hk ab 15:10 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
fc//do you short dlr/chf today?

Bodrum OEE 15:09 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Should there be a desire to short YEN , better to do it in the following order from overvalued downwards:

GBP, EUR, AUD, and lastly NZD (and CHF).

One may want to avoid doing so against USD.


UK Alex 15:08 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
German finance minister Peer Steinbrueck said the economic climate in the European Union (EU) is currently "very positive".

Steinbrueck, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, said the impact of Germany's rise in value-added tax from Jan 1 has been less severe than feared and "will leave economic growth relatively unaffected".

Lahore FM 15:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
6.46 mill on housing 112.5 on confidence.

hk ab 15:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD bearish party over?

Syd 15:02 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Conference Bd Feb Present Situation Index 139.0 Vs Jan 133.9
US Consumer Confidence Hits 5 1/2-Yr High In Feb
US Jan Median Existing Home Price -3.1% On Yr To $210,600
US Inventory Of Unsold US Homes At 6.6 Months Supply
US Jan Existing Home Sales Consensus 6.25M Rate
US Jan Existing Home Sales +3.0% To 6.46M Rate
US Conf Bd Feb Consumer Confidence 112.5 Vs Jan 110.2

Syd 15:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
US Conf Bd Feb Consumer Confidence 112.5 Vs Jan 110.2
US Jan Existing Home Sales +3.0% To 6.46M Rate

Mtl JP 14:51 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:21 / PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan tells the Hong Kong Commercial Daily newspaper: "If the trade surplus grows, the pace of the CNY's appreciation may quicken."

Interesting. PBoC prints yuans like greased lightening, all the while keeping a peg to the dollar. As long as that will remain, their money supply will continue to be explosive, their new bank reserve ratios barely denting the yuan fiat supply. Chinese interest rates NEED to rise to have snowball's chance in h3ll of nipping the supply growth rate.

Cannes Oil man 14:47 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:38 GMT February 27, 2007
oilman, why not against dlr?
--
The dollar is stumbling..

Meanwhile conti's and anything but US$ have chances of stabilizing as they move up against the US$ , thus having their yen pair up or just mildly down..Still think there's better to do than shorting YEN atm..(Shorting US$ e.g).

Gen dk 14:46 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Washington MRM 14:45 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Out of long GBP/US$ at 1.9667 for small profit. Will look to re-load at lower levels.

UK Alex 14:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY being capped by IMM sellers who have been caught on the wrong side and are now bailing out.

Cannes Oil man 14:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
The next big mover will be the CAD.

in a few months , current levels 1.16--1.18 will be another peak (just like 1.60--1.40---1.25...and now 1.18)..

Massive upside in Canadian $ incoming.

Syd 14:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
China Stocks Tank – That’s Risk!
China's Stocks Have
Biggest Tumble in 10 Years
Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks tumbled the most in 10 years on concern the government will crack down on illegal investments that helped drive benchmarks to records.

``People are worried that more tightening measures may come out,'' said Mona Chung, who helps manage about $950 million at Daiwa Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong.

CT Cris 14:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Eur.jpy may decline till 157.20-10 then rise again till 158.00.

Cannes Oil man 14:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
It's quite amazing the number of people seeing the $ making a come back , bottom picking every 50 pips , meanwhile it just keeps dropping..

2 weeks ago , we were in tight ranges , everyone was saying
it's 1.29 , target 1.25..and a move above 1.3050 negates further downside..We're at 1.32 , but people still looking for downside in E$ (and in spot brokers , adding to losses)..

Same could be said for the NZD , no one wanted to long 67 area, it's now above high's 7030--71 , and still everyone calling for downside.
Meanwhile the big shuffle continues, as funds and major players go out of the US$ (against the yen, but also against the Euro , NZD, AUD , etc)..

Keep short US$ , sell it on every blip (Like NZD 7000/30 today) , in a few years , all this levels will be looked at $ peaks.
gl gt

Haifa ac 14:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
How many think we have seen the year high in stocks?!

hk ab 14:38 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
oilman, why not against dlr?

ABHA FXS 14:36 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
http://www.forextv.com/FT/index.jsp

NY Ed 14:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man...have any thoughts on Cable today ???

Cannes Oil man 14:30 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
If someone want's to short YEN , better chances are against the NZD , EUR and lastly GBP.


CT Cris 14:30 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 14:25 GMT February 27, 2007
Ct Cris...ooops sorry, NYSE

=====
it is already done few mins ago ,I am in buy now at 19643.

madrid mm 14:28 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Toronto ¥ € $ 14:24 GMT February 27, 2007
imho it made the low already for today, ie Madrid [email protected] 118.69...

madrid mm 14:26 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
fwiw

Consumer Confidence
10:00ET

Existing Home Sales
10:00ET

NY Ed 14:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Ct Cris...ooops sorry, NYSE

Toronto ¥ € $ 14:24 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   

How far down do we think Usd/jpy will continue to fall?

madrid mm 14:24 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:56 GMT February 27, 2007
PAR 13:47 GMT

it reminds me.....
It is not what you know but who you know.
8-)

RIC fxq 14:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
ECB's Bini Smaghi says ministers must show more discipline in forex comments
Tuesday, February 27, 2007 9:17:17 AM


BRUSSELS (AFX) - European Central Bank board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said euro zone finance ministers should exercise greater discipline in their comments on exchange rates.

'Although the current arrangements on the exchange rate policy of the euro area are well designed, they probably need to be better implemented, in particular to achieve more stringent verbal discipline,' he said in a speech.

'When euro area finance ministers express themselves on exchange rate issues in terms that differ from each other and from the agreed euro area and G7 positions, the most likely outcome on financial markets is the opposite of that intended,' he said.

Bini Smaghi said market participants interpret any differences in statements on currencies as indications of potential disagreements between policymakers and then tend to push exchange rates in the opposite direction to that desired by the person making the statement.

He said public communication on exchange rate issues should be conducted mainly by ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet and euro group president Jean-Claude Juncker.

'The members of the euro group should thus align their communication to the message agreed between the ECB and the euro group presidency,' he said.

[email protected]

CT Cris 14:21 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed.
what you mean by open.
which open.

UK Alex 14:21 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Anyone see this?

PBOC governor Zhou Xiaochuan tells the Hong Kong Commercial Daily newspaper: "If the trade surplus grows, the pace of the CNY's appreciation may quicken."

NY Ed 14:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris.. do you get that ENTRY on a 30 min retrace (support) ?

Syd 14:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
OECD Sec General Sees ECB Holding Rates At 3.5%-3.75% In 07..Unions Will Fail To Win Large Wage Hikes..Euro Zone Inflation To Be "Tame" In 2007

Syd 14:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
OECD Sec General Sees ECB Holding Rates At 3.5%-3.75% In 07..Unions Will Fail To Win Large Wage Hikes..Euro Zone Inflation To Be "Tame" In 2007

NY Ed 14:18 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Netry sorry ENTRY

NY Ed 14:18 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris... I have the same Netry of Cable you think we will see it by open?

CT Cris 14:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:43 GMT February 27, 2007
gbp.usd.

19700 is coming.

=======
buy 19635-45 , buy another at intervals 25 pips if decline.
tp 19700.

Philadelphia Caba 14:16 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
bingo! i knew it that chameleon will return with 'right' explanation in 'right' time...

London The Holy Grail 14:14 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
All in all this surprisingly negative durable datas adding negative pressures onto metals and profit taking onto commodity currencies, as confirming into the foreseeable future there to be a reduction in US rates as the economy is slowing down. Big guess onto the plate today are still the housings and confidences, where seemingly we will look into for any us dollar correction chance of sort or trend extension in the opposite case datas will add onto economic slowdown to happen somewhere this year. Dow is also crazy today.

Washington MRM 14:14 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 10:45 GMT February 27, 2007
Haven't seen much mention of GBP/US$ lately. I am long - averaged in at 1.9655

------------------

Out of 2/3rds of position at entry. Scaling back to find a better entry point or to buy on break of 1.9680. US$ should be under pressure for rest of day, but not sure if cable will come into favor.

Syd 14:10 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
The dollar recently dipped to Y118.75 against the yen, a level unseen since Jan. 9 after a weak report on US durable goods extended the dollar's losses from overnight. But Grant Wilson, senior foreign exchange trader at Mellon Bank, noted that the dollar's losses are not "just dollar-centric." He said the unwinding of carry trade, including those funded by the yen and the Swiss franc, is also hurting the greenback.

Gold coast Martin 14:07 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Time to decide whether a trade chooses "volauntary exit "" or "forced entry "" in March...g/l to all..( from GVI)..

*Gold Coast Martin 00:08 GMT February 22, 2007
Sydney ge11ja 23:59 GMT February 21, 2007
Try the traditional "yen repatriation" month..thats a good catalyst..there is usually 2 types of cary trade exit..."voluntary" which is the one chosen by the smart money and institutional funds..this type usually occurs ahead of the repatriation period. and there is the "forced '" exit which is not on a voluntary basis , and occurs during or straight after repatrtiation period, as a result of the "voluntary"" exits picking up steam. This exit is usually reserved for the retail investors "" dumb money"'..The ironic thing is that we see this type of exit every year but the Jap retail lemmings never learn.
*Gold Coast Martin 00:31 GMT February 22, 2007
Sydney ge11ja 00:17 GMT February 22, 2007
..I shouldnt say this but i will. In nearly every case of large carry trade exits, these guys push the market up as far as it will alow them ( usd/jpy and euro/yen) ahead of their planned carry trade exit , in order that their voluntary exit is "cushioned"" at a higher level rather than a lower level. In other words , their create a temporary cushion in the market for their voluntary exit . So they exit when market is under the impression carry is still king ..As far as the aud/jpy is concerned, it will fall victim to this voluntary exit process....

Cannes Oil man 14:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Added long NZDUSD 7036 to my existing 6925 (6790 was taken out before).
gl gt

UK Alex 14:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Stock futures not looking too healthy.

hk ab 13:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Alex//will try limit long 118.67 tight stop on dlr/jpy long.

RIC fxq 13:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:47 GMT

G'span doesn't give a rats! He is in it strictly for the $$$$$$$

UK Alex 13:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hearing of buyers stepping in around these levels on USD/JPY.

hk ab 13:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, any bias on this indicator at the moment?

Hong Kong Qindex 13:53 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 02:45 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/CHF : My cycle references indicate that [1.2296] - [1.2492] a consolidating range. A supporting level is located at 1.2204 - 1.2238. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.2556 - 1.2567.

Lahore FM 13:51 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
not a bad long here at 1.2220.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF : It is going to be the leading indicator.

PAR 13:47 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Does Greenspan knows that he no longer works for the FED ?

hk ab 13:46 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
the breakout of chf crossess will bring more downside for this little chf.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:46 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : The next barrier is 118.40 // 118.78.

hk ab 13:45 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
if 118.80 breaks and hold, it iwll be a good nightmare for dlr/jpy. (and exporters)

CT Cris 13:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd.

19700 is coming.

Syd 13:42 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
International Monetary Fund Managing Director Rodrigo Rato late Monday said trade protectionism and the possibility of upheaval in global financial markets are the biggest threats to the current period of world economic prosperity.

Rato, in the text of a speech to alumni of Harvard Business School in Washington, said that not only are currency traders underestimating the risks of borrowing yen and investing them abroad in higher yielding investments, an investment tactic known as the yen-carry trade. Also, he said, governments in countries receiving those capital flows are probably too complacent over the risk the trade will unwind abruptly.

"A disruptive unwinding of carry trade positions occurred in October 1998, when the U.S. dollar fell by 15% against the Japanese yen in four days," Rato said. "I am concerned that investors and the countries into which funds are flowing are not sufficiently attentive to the risks."

The effects of the carry trade are evident in capital flows into countries like Brazil and Turkey, and in the growth of yen-dominated mortgages in countries ranging from Korea to Latvia, he said.

Rato said the world economy is on track to expand around 5% this year, the strongest five-year period of growth since the 1960s. Demand is slowing in the U.S., but strengthening in Europe, China, India and other emerging markets, he said. Growth is also on the upswing in Japan. However, the yen is trading near 20-year lows, he said.

Governments can't do much about the yen-carry trade, but should be gathering as much information as possible about the scope of the trade to better prepare for any shifts in markets, Rato said.

RIC fxq 13:42 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 13:39 GMT

john is right, G'span is just out there collecting $$$ on the lecture circuit, no power/influence whatever - he is Chmn emeritus.

hk ab 13:41 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
some interested group must be sitting @ 118.90-119.....

RIC fxq 13:41 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
So much for ECB jawboning"

4cast:

Tue Feb 27 08:20:00 2007(EST)

* 27 Feb 07: 13:20(LDN) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, GBP/JPY Flows - N. Amercans feeling the JPY squeeze

N. Americans are feeling the squeeze on JPY and the early flows from that direction are pushing JPY even higher. While JPY is making its major move vs USD, which is feeling the strain elsewhere, but its strength is not limited to USD. GBP/JPY is roughly keeping pace with USD/JPY. Short squeeze and carry trades are terms that have been dominating market talk and there is nothing standing in the way of further JPY appreciation on the day, unless US data is particularly strong. USD/JPY technically is on the way to testing for buyers at 118.75 and GBP/JPY is targeting 234.04 and then 233.13. M.B.

* 27 Feb 07: 12:10(LDN) - FX NOW! AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY Flows- Jawboning from European officials contributes to JPY squeeze

AUD and NZD are being pushed around again by the market talk related to carry trade unwinding. International and European officials in the form of IMF Rato and the Eurozone's own Junker have repeated the well worn warning that carry trades can go both ways. In Junker's case, it is interesting that he continues to focus on the negative potential from JPY and CHF funded carry trades after ECB/BBK's Weber has stated that a BBK study suggested carry trades cannot be specifically linked to JPY weakness or strength. Jawboning is something that JPY is all too familiar with and subject too and there is due to be more rather than less in the near term. While officials highlight carry trades, they will be contributing to increased swings in JPY while advertising the trade to those who have not taken advantage of the cheap funding to date. AUD and M.B.

Haifa ac 13:39 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 13:35 GMT //
John, he is referring to this:
Greenspan: Recession 'possible' by end of year
Updated 2/26/2007 10:17 AM ET
WASHINGTON (AP) — Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Monday it is "possible" the U.S. economy might fall into recession by the end of the year.
He said the U.S. economy has been expanding since 2001 and that there are signs the current economic cycle is coming to an end.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2007-02-26-greenspan_x.htm

hk ab 13:38 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy 118.90 key ma.

GVI john 13:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Par - Greenspan does not work for the Fed any more.

Philadelphia Caba 13:34 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
US ECON: Jan Durable Goods Soft, Ex-Trans -3.1%.
Very soft numbers in durable goods and weakness was broad based. Nondefense capital goods orders less aircraft fell by 6.0%.

PAR 13:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Did Greenspan knew those durable good numbers ?

Hong Kong Qindex 13:30 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 07:56 GMT February 27, 2007
GBP/JPY : The downside targeting points are 231.24 and 232.80.

hk ab 13:27 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Martin//Do you see those funds in Dec will have strange moves again this week? pretty volatile at the moment.

London The Holy Grail 13:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
What else to say in times like this?!
Good luck is the solely thing come to mind.
Bye

HK REVDAX 13:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 13:17//Should have told me this long ago but is still not late. If you had told me about this in 2005, i would have been trading out of a PC in the Mediteranean by now...lol

hk revdax 13:18 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:16 GMT //too late to buy and too early to go short...gl

Cannes Oil man 13:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 13:16 GMT February 27, 2007

Revdax, in trend situation , RSI will make you loose money..
in trendline situation when RSI points to downside , one must actually buy (trend continuation) , as trends are by definition over bought or over sold.

hk ab 13:16 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
revdax//view on eur and chf please.

hk revdax 13:16 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:39//the best time to short euro will be tomorrow. i used to look at RSI quite a bit in the years past but for the past couple of years either it has lost its charm to me or i have been suffering from optical illusion when i look at that indicator.

HK REVDAX 13:08 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Antwerp ML 12:51//Don't short gold, unless you do that for some intraday frog flipping. The world governments are printing paper money like printing toilet papers.

Gold coast Martin 12:58 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   

Enjoy the rest of March...
Gold Coast Martin 23:43 GMT February 13, 2007
FWIW..Jap investment trust flows( mainly pension funds) will not be released for overseas allocation until after end of March traditional Jap repatriation and after the end of the Jap fiscal year.....contrary to wide concensus, majority( over 80% of it is destined for domestic location( as long term strategy of investing in a strengthening jap economy) and the rest is destined for overseas ...so net result on carry currencies as a result of the above investment trust flows is zero...Carry trade risk appetite should decline less and less as we head into end of February and into March...g/l to all..

Lahore FM 12:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Antwerp ML 12:50 GMT February 27, 2007
Thanx ML for your kind welcome.only if you would show up here more often it would be a pleasure.

Antwerp ML 12:51 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GOLD-
by the way i think theres some nice money to
be made going short GOLD. I think fear of slowdown will dominate next few trading sessions, thus sparking sell-off in gold,
my target 650

Antwerp ML 12:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore
are you back??
welcome , i though u left us forever:)
M

madrid mm 12:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
...play! Like almost everyday 8-)

Atlanta South 12:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Haifa AC
Tks for the 12:23 post.

madrid mm 12:32 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
gold is back in ....

Haifa ac 12:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:32 GMT //
I prefer the DXC because indexes lie less than futures.
This is NOT short term. I see the Dec 2004 as major low (DB and 34 months decline)/
We are now 26 months in range and last quarter was 21 from top.
We need to take out 8730 to start a serious ascent (that is almost 400 points from here-- so it will take time). But this decline seems like BenHur holding 6 white horses more than a beginning of further plunge. My view.

Global-View GVI 11:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
From GVI:

Mellon FX Daily

This is from the report and worth repeating:

As is typically the case with the JPY, the severity and duration of any corrective move is the key source of uncertainty.

hk ab 11:53 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
I think after yen unwind, the next will be cad and chf..... fwiw.

The dlr/cad is still brewing

RF//ARe you seeing capitulation in dlr/jpy soon?
or e/j? LOL.

madrid mm 11:47 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Do not blame anybody for your mistakes and failures.- Bernard Baruch, investor

Atlanta South 11:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man
Ref 11:30/Tks for your views. I'm also seeing 3150 as a down
target. I closed too see last night & miss a few pips. Will
reload on the next up swing. Again, tks for your valued
views & gt.

Atlanta South 11:32 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Haifa AC
Ref 10:49/What are your short term views for EUR/USD? I
am also seeing $ gain in the short term, but don't see it
holding. Seeing 3125-50 as holding the downside. Tks
for your views. Gt

Cannes Oil man 11:30 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:25 GMT February 27, 2007

I'm still long from last week's 1.3090 area, and looking for more upside , though today e$ could dip a little towards 1.3150 to test the downside...Unless EY wakes up , pulling e$..

Atlanta South 11:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man
Ref 11:09//That is very true. I have used them for longer term postion trades in the past & had fair success, but when
I changed to the short term 1-3 day method I now use I
had to leave as they frown on that. They are no doubt
heading in the same direction as their counterpart.
Btw what are your view on EUR/USD over the next 3 dys,
Tks & gt.

madrid mm 11:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union citizens are overwhelmingly happy with life -- and that's official.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070226/wl_nm/eu_happiness_dc

They did not ask me !!! But i feel i am 8-)

Atlanta South 11:18 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY ED/
I should have held my long EUR/USD trade last night, but I
didn't want to hold it overnight so I tp. Holding the position
would as you see resulted in most gains, but when I'm in
doubt I get out or stay out if not already in. Thats the
sometimes be the result of using short term method-models.
Thanks for your views. GT

Cannes Oil man 11:09 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 07:59 GMT February 27, 2007

That said broker has moved from normal operation to refco styled one(it's also part of them now)..on many sites it has been voted a scam broker for awhile now..(requoting , interests theft , statement change etc)..
It won't be long before they join their new partner refco too in the holiday house.

Lahore FM 11:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 10:59 GMT February 27, 2007
yes 229.20 is possible over next week.

Washington MRM 10:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 10:50 GMT February 27, 2007

Agree it won't help, but you see proportional move in US$/JPY. Why then would it impact GBP/US$, unless you believe GBP/JPY has more to go.

Syd 10:51 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Early indications from German regional CPI data (Saxony and NRW below forecast) suggest consumer prices rose by 0.4% in February with year-year rate accelerating to 1.7%, says Bear Stearns. Bank says this is very good news for eurozone rate perceptions and will definitely constrain ECB on tougher rates policy, with inflation likely to be contained below 2%. Bear says flash CPI on Thursday could now come in at 1.8% (1.9% expected), and by this time next year could be running below 1.5%. Bear wonders when markets will start to think about ECB rate cuts. With that in mind, euribor futures strip looks very undervalued now, factoring in 4% rates for next two years

Lahore FM 10:50 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Washington MRM 10:45 GMT February 27, 2007
a 400 pip unwind of gbpjpy won't help gbpusd much.see it dropping from present levels.

Haifa ac 10:49 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Again, gut feeling-- Dollar is about to take off. Perhaps just to knock off exuverant commodities speculation.
"Margin debt at brokerage firms reached $285.6 billion at the end of last month. A record high. "

That is a little bubble.


Washington MRM 10:45 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Haven't seen much mention of GBP/US$ lately. I am long - averaged in at 1.9655 - but not sure who is capping this at 1.9680. If it breaks there, as I suppose it will in wake of US data, it should run to 1.9730 and beyond.

madrid mm 10:22 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
PARIS (AFX) - A further strong set of euro zone money and credit data suggest that the European Central Bank will continue hiking interest rates beyond next week's expected tightening move, economists said.
Euro zone M3 money supply grew 9.8 pct year-on-year in January. The December growth rate was also revised up to 9.8 pct from a provisional 9.7 pct.
The 9.8 pct reading is once again the highest figure since 1990 and will fuel ECB worries about inflation risks from strong money growth.
Markets were looking for a moderation in M3 growth to 9.5 pct in January.

HK [email protected] 10:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Unwinding of the carry trade, may by itself bring down inflation, as owner of properties , shares, bonds and commodities will try to get out of their holdings, thus pushing down prices.

So the unwinding process is one which feeds energy into itself.

It is therefor not too easy to estimate the speed of that unwinding.

So maybe a year from now you may be able to buy assets at half of the prices today, house for half of the price hehehe If you yourself will not be victim of that trade.

And interest rates will decline accordingly earlier than expected.

Will that cause a recession? I think recession is already here.

Lahore FM 10:15 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
nice job th.

Charlotte TH 10:02 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
closed short from 120.30 at 119.60.also closed chfjpy from 98.08 at 97.57.





Charlotte TH 23:44 GMT February 22, 2007
short chfjpy 98.08.

Charlotte TH 23:42 GMT February 22, 2007
short usdjpy 121.49.

earlier short at 120.30 area.

HK [email protected] 10:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
If the market can remain so Yen bullish, the next target for USD/YEN will be a move to 118.00. If that level will be hit that opens the market for another spectacular move to around 115.

Auckland trotter 10:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 09:25 GMT February 27, 2007
Sorry, I can’t comment on this as I only trade the EUR/USD for various hard learnt reasons.

Give me about half an hour, then I could analyses the Kiwi. But it would only be a ‘snap shot analysis’ of the Kiwi, and not an understanding.

Aspects to understanding the price movement of a currency pair and where the price is at given the time you view the market is what I look at - or should say aim for.

Syd 10:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
The USD is lower on the latest concerns that problems in the sub-prime borrowing market will spread to the country's mortgage market as a whole. Concerns over Iran and continued strength in crude oil prices aren't helping. The JPY is getting support from signs that Japanese Life companies may be repatriating hefty profits from overseas ahead of the fiscal year end. dj

Lahore FM 09:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:16 GMT February 23, 2007
hk ab 13:48 GMT February 23, 2007
gbpjpy,229.20 is more like it.

Lahore FM 13:43 GMT February 23, 2007
higher 237's good place for short gbpjpy
==
closed 1/3rd at 235.70.

closed 1/3rd at 234.98.

keeping the rest for lower target.

Auckland trotter 09:39 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 09:16 GMT February 27, 2007
I see the market has hit the weekly 1.3230 pivot and have other short term indicators that say down for now.

A short term trader, and am still looking at the up for the EUR/USD from my various time charts with my indicators. But at the moment see some uncertainty in the EUR/USD market, so will look at a the EUR/USD settling into a short term range for now. Where these levels are we shall see.

Will try to adapt my trading approach to the various market conditions, as will trade up and down given my indicators during my trading session.

Just try to understand the price movement - no expert - but learning to make a good profit.

Glgt

Gen dk 09:27 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sydney ACC 09:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:11 GMT February 27, 2007
So Trotter what do you think about the Kiwi its off 60m points from the opening now. Do you think this unwinding will continue if so it could herald a more significant drop.

Lahore FM 09:24 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
ACC,nzdusd has shwon the effect of unwind the most in last 2 hours.off almost 70 pips.end of the day looks good for usd and jpy overall.

hk revdax 09:16 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:11//i am tempted to short euro too but past experiences suggest that it is better to be late than sorry...lol

Auckland trotter 09:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
I have RSI’s for the EUR/USD showing need of correction. I have them over bought on the 5min, 12hr, 1hr 5day, 4hr 20day.

Looking for the correction, for more up.

Sydney ACC 09:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Aussie and Kiwi starting to reflect the unwinding. Kiwi especially is going to get hit from the unwinding and the reduced flow while the current account deficit continues to increase foreign debt.

Turtle ПОИСК 09:02 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GMT Time Economic data Country Period Forecast Previous
09:00 EZ MONEY M3 3M MOVING AVG EMU JAN 9.20%
09:00 EZ MONEY M3 ANNUAL GROWTH EMU JAN 9.50% 9.70%
13:30 DURABLE GOODS ORDERS USA JAN -2.50% 2.90%
15:00 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE USA FEB 108.9 110.3
15:00 RICH. FED COMP. INDEX USA FEB -4.00 -11.00

Auckland trotter 08:57 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Selling the EUR/USD from the M4 weekly pivot of 1.3230. Missed the up to this.

Looking for the up with short indicators..


Will see what the UK market has to offer - probably more ups and downs.

I should have taken my percentage profit before with a misunderstanding of the market - but will see what eventuates.

slv sam 08:55 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:46 GMT/
some waiting 1.19 but for me 1.2150 is enough!GT

madrid mm 08:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
there is a good article from
UK Alex 14:31 GMT February 19, 2007
Subject: Forex Seasonality

worth a look, it is on the Help Forum

madrid mm 08:52 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
this is what i call ¨divergence of opinion¨8-)
courtesy of afx news

BRUSSELS (AFX) - Euro group chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said vigilance is needed on euro zone inflation.

'We have to stay vigilant,' Juncker told reporters, when asked about inflation risks on his way into the monthly meeting of EU finance ministers.

But Belgian finance minister Didier Reynders said on inflation: 'We are not concerned for the moment.'

The European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates next week, citing the need to curb inflationary risks.

Turtle ПОИСК 08:52 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
We are still targeting 1.9725 and may come one step closer to reaching this mark if sluggish US durable goods orders are published this afternoon.

Gen dk 08:47 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 08:46 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
sam, do you ahve a chf target in mind? TIA.

Haifa ac 08:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
One good way to trade forex is to make it a habit to scan GVI archives and look for bc's comment in the past few weeks.
He is like most good traders-- right and early.

shanghai bc 07:16 GMT January 4, 2007

January is a dangerous month for forex traders..More so when compared to the remaining 11 months of the year..The thing to do is, drink more tea and coffee during most of January and watch the market till the market bias is clear and present..

shanghai bc 03:00 GMT January 5, 2007

Yen repatriation for the financial year starts in earnest from mid-January each year..Together with rate hike expectation,Yen carry trade may encounter some headwind from time to time..But its long-term,euro zone highe-rate and Yen zone almost zero-rate,upside potential is unliekly to change any time soon..Fwiw..
shanghai bc 06:15 GMT February 8, 2007
Syd 02:33 GMT February 8, 2007

Expecting Usd/Jpy to move towards 115.00 in coming weeks..Then I am not a day trader..

Syd 08:41 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
M&A flows remain a negative for GBP. Shire's nearly $2.4B bid for US's New River Pharmaceuticals last week ensures the currency is experiencing the largest outflows from the G10 since the start of the year. Outflows so far total $16.4B, the next largest is the EUR with $11.3B. With an inflow of $6.9B, the SEK is the largest beneficiary.

bris rc 08:39 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:07 GMT
got it thanks

Turtle ПОИСК 08:38 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
07:49 buy close 08:33 $ 6400 tofast

slv sam 08:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 08:34 GMT /
minimum 3275 Revdax!
look at the strength of chf!!GT

HK REVDAX 08:34 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Euro/$ has reached Dr.Q's upper target. What next?

Auckland trotter 08:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Selling on the correction of the EUR/USD for now before the opening of the UK market - short pips.

Syd 08:24 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
JPY Has More Strength To Come - JP Morgan
It looks like a near-term shift has developed in JPY crosses, says JP Morgan. The bank had expected EUR/JPY to turn from the 158.50 area and run to new highs. However, the overnight decline from 159.25 negates this scenario and suggests a deeper pullback toward 157.35 and possibly 156.50 before a base starts to develop. The bank says this JPY strength will probably extend across the board with the driver probably being USD/JPY. EUR/JPY now at 157.97, USD/JPY at 119.60

denver jake 08:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
rumors of US and Iran. buy the peace loving swiss

warsaw TOMi 08:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
€/$ target 3215 filled, short now 3220, targets 3080.

Turtle ПОИСК 08:20 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
res = 1.9399 1.9735 doyouskiatoll

Syd 08:07 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
have to love that "The yen has thus been tantamount to the ATM of the global credit world – spewing out (almost) free cash."

Syd 08:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 08:04 GMT :-)))

Auckland trotter 08:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
I still see up pressure for the EUR/USD.

Trading up from S1 daily pivot of 1.3159, and the I5 1 week 3 year pivot of 13160.

Haifa ac 08:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 08:00 GMT February 27, 2007
censored =censored//
By far POST OF THE DAY!

Hong Kong Qindex 08:03 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : It is not a good sign when the market is trading below 234.88. The next point is 234.19.

Lahore FM 08:02 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
yes TH,the depression from jpy crosses unwind is getting deeper still.

Syd 08:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
censored =censored

Charlotte TH 08:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 08:35 GMT February 26, 2007
the big jpy unwind might have begun already.


Lahore FM 09:11 GMT February 26, 2007
PAR 09:07 GMT February 26, 2007
the scale of the unwind will be unexpected perhaps.

Lahore FM 09:04 GMT February 26, 2007
ACC,what i was talking late friday is unfolding now.
---------------------------------
accelerating.

Syd 07:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
censored =blogspot

Auckland trotter 07:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Having received an e-mail from my trade station supplier, and ref. my frustrated posts in regards to them yesterday.

I will commend them on covering the losses of their clients.

Not one of their clients that made a loss - just could have made more.

I post this as a public appreciation of customer service, and for me shows them as a supplier worth being with, in regards to this aspect.

Syd 07:58 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
http://traderfeed.censored/2007/02/is-carry-trade-carrying-stock-market.html

Hong Kong Qindex 07:57 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : My cycle references indicate that [2.3891] - [2.4157] - [2.4198] - [2.4403] is a consolidating range. Projected barriers are located at 2.4023 - 2.4053 and 2.4316 - 2.4333.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:56 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 07:07 GMT - GBP/JPY : The downside targeting points are 231.24 and 232.80.

Bris rc 07:53 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:27 GMT February 27, 2007
the link does not work.... thanks

warsaw TOMi 07:47 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
katt, no bounce, holding shorts, going south.

Syd 07:44 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
China Shares End Sharply Down; Biggest Pct Fall In 10 Years

madrid mm 07:34 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
question for HKD traders if you can help plse. Thx.
is it still true so far that the HKD is still allowed to fluctuate between 7.75 and 7.85 to the USD ?

madrid mm 07:32 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
courtesy bloomberg.com
Americas

Yen to Gain 4.5 Percent to 115 Versus Dollar as Economy Improves, ABN Says The yen will appreciate 4.5 percent within a month as stronger-than-expected economic reports prompt traders to bet on a faster pace of interest-rate increases in
Japan, according to ABN Amro Holding NV.

Europe

Pound Volatility to Rise to Highest in Almost Year, Barclays Capital Says Volatility on options on the euro against the pound may rise to its highest in almost a year because interest-rate changes by the two nations' central banks may surprise investors, according to Barclays Capital Inc.

Asia

New Zealand Dollar Gains on Outlook for Interest Rate Increase in March New Zealand's dollar gained on speculation inflation is fast enough for the central bank to increase the official cash rate to a record high next month, buoying demand for the currency.

Syd 07:27 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Is the Carry Trade Carrying the Stock Market?

When my wife and I bought our new house in Fayetteville, NY, we originally planned to make the purchase outright. We heard, however, of an adjustable rate mortgage with a very low initial teaser rate, no points, and no prepayment penalty. So we took out the mortgage, paid a couple points of interest, and kept our money in high yielding CDs for that year. Altogether we netted about 5% on our money with no downside risk.

Little did we know it back then, but we were engaging in a version of the "carry trade" now popular among institutional investors. Japan is acting as the generous world bank, offering money at very low interest rates. This enables investors to borrow Yen and invest money in the higher yielding debt markets, such as those of New Zealand. Those investors net several percent return essentially risk free.

An excellent summary of the carry trade is provided by Michael Shedlock, aka Mish. He reports, "The yen has thus been tantamount to the ATM of the global credit world – spewing out (almost) free cash." LINK

madrid mm 07:22 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
courtesy bloomberg.com
Currencies

Yen Rises a Third Day on Speculation Investors Will Funnel Funds to Japan The yen rose for a third day on speculation investors will funnel funds into Japanese assets on signs of improving growth in the world's second-largest economy.

Options Traders Increasingly Bearish on U.S. Dollar Versus Canadian Dollar Currency traders are paying the biggest premium in 10 months for options that protect against a drop in the U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar, as rising oil prices and an accelerating economy lift Canada's currency.

PAR 07:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
The unexpected may be general US dollar strength since all analysts are predicting bad US economic numbers for this week .

USA BAY 07:07 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Dr Q, could you please comment on the downside targeting point for gbp/jpy. thanks

madrid mm 07:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR , i can not tell you as it is UN expected 8-)

have a nice day fx jedi

Capital preservation is VITAL

Hong Kong Qindex 07:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD : My cycle references indicate that [1.5154] - [1.5249] - [1.5301] - [1.5320] is a consolidating range. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1.5320. A projected resistant level is located at 1.5541 - 1.5548. A barrier is expected at 1.5474 - 1.5504. A projected supporting level is positioning at 1.5013 - 1.5024.

madrid mm 07:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
US spokeswoman: US VP Dick Cheney is "fine" after a blast hit the main US Bagram Base in Afghanistan he was visiting. The blast killed several people and is now on high alert.

IMF MD Rodrigo Rato says it is clear that weak JPY, strong carry trades are affecting many countries from Asia to Europe. Not easy to measure the size of carry trades and says (warns?) that circumstances should change over time as Japan moves to more (BoJ rate hikes?) normal monetary policy. Japan should make clear that deflationary pressure are completely ruled out. Calls for more flexibility in CNY, structural changes in rest of Asia.

Eurogroup Chair Jean-Claude Juncker said he and ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet were "right'' to warn investors about the dangers of betting against yen. Both had called on investors to take into account Japan's longest period of economic expansion since WWII.

MoF Koji Omi says he will hold frank discussions of various economic isuess at home and abroad with US Treasury Sec Henry Paulson, when asked it they will discuss weak JPY.

Econs Min Prof Hiroko Ota says chances of US economy making soft landing is increasing. Japanese economic conditions unchanged, but slight weakness continues in consumption.

PBoC Gov Zhou Xiaochuan says China may allow CNY to rise more if trade surplus keep growing rapidly - HK Commercial Daily.

Israeli paper Haaretz: Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh denied yesterday that Israel was in talks with the US to use Iraqi airspace as part of possible plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites.

RBNZ quarterly inflation survey : inflation pressure to ease to 2.7% over the coming year, down from 3.0%. 2 year inflation to 2.6% from 2.7%.

JPY given another boost in Asia session, helped by overall weaker USD on concerns over the health of the US economy, plus former Fed Greenspan "recession" comments.

Short JPY carry trades seen under pressure as Cross/JPY sold on "coordinated?" IMF Rato comments on impact of weak JPY, carry tradem MoF Omi comments of frank talks of US Treasury Paulson and Eurogroup Juncker comments that he and ECB Trichet are right to warn against 1-week bet against JPY.

USD/JPY extended losses from mornign 120.75 to day lows of 120.16 as stoploss orders were hit on break of 120.20. Talks US investment houses, hedge funds, Japanese names good sellers, together with EUR/JPY.

More downside seen as EUR/JPY stoploss hit below 158.50 to 158.35-40 on momentum, Japanese mega-city banks and early Europeans, funds selling from above 159 today, as funds cautious of fresh waves of JPY carry trades unwinding - after buying post BoJ.

EUR/USD finally broke 1.32 trigger to 2-m highs of 1.3205, as mkt rehashed New Yorker report of Pentagon plan to attack Iran (denied). EUR dipped quickly on talks of China, Europeans, Japanese selling in EUR, EUR/JPY to lows of 158.35.

GBP/JPY stoploss hit blw 236 after falling from highs of 237 today. GBP/USD weighed by GBP/JPY.

NZD capped by US invs houses selling, coming off 15-m highs of 0.7124, NZD/JPY off 15-m highs, cautious of any JPY carry unwind of fresh carry trades taken after market played down BoJ hike last week. CHF eye SNB Jordan, USD eye durable gds.

Nikkei -95pts at 18,119, weighed by property stocks, JGBs firmer on good 2-yr auction. 10-yr yield -0.02% at 1.635%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 120.16/120.72, EUR/USD 1.3173/1.3205, GBP/USD 1.9610/1.9655, USD/CHF 1.2282/1.2305, AUD/USD 0.7931/0.7946, NZD/USD 0.7087/0.7115.

New Brighton gvm 06:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
PAR 06:49 I think the 'unexpected' is just how profound the impact will be across all markets and countries when the cheap yen finally goes. A mate of mine has been funding the purchase of 5 inner London properties with yen loans bought circa 185 yen a few years back - when he decides to close the trade he will hit any and all bids on London properties - he doesnt care if he doesnt get current market - he is so far in the money it doesnt matter - anecdotal example of where the yen has been spent and the profits that have been made

ABHA FXS 06:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Long USD/JPY 119.77/67 STOP 35PIPS T 121.50
Long USD/CHF 1.2294/84 STOP 35PIPS T 1.2400
Short EUR/USD 1.3170/80 STOP 35PIPS T 1.3109
Short GBP/USD 1.9625/35 STOP 45PIPS T 1.9481

PAR 06:49 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
The expected is for carry trades to unwind. So what is the unexpected ?

Sofia mik 06:44 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Tnx, I mean news, headlines,
have a nice day!

Hong Kong Qindex 06:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The following is still valid :

Hong Kong Qindex 00:43 GMT February 25, 2007
EUR/USD : My cycle references indicate that the market is going to consolidate between [1.3138] - [1.3226]. Projected supporting range are expected at 1.3071* - 1.3081 and 1.3116* - 1.3119*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.3303 - 1.3313*.

CT Cris 06:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 18:34 GMT February 26, 2007
gbp.usd will rise till 19635-40 then decline to 19610-00 during the coming asian.


=====
will continue.

madrid mm 06:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 06:31 GMT February 27, 2007

no worries 8-)

EUR-USD @ gmt +1
R3 = 1.3255- R2 = 1.3226- R1 = 1.3208
Pivot = 1.3179
S1 = 1.3161 S2 = 1.3132 S3 = 1.3114
H = 1.3198 L = 1.3151 C = 1.319

HK REVDAX 06:36 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Qindex//Your view on Euro/$ please?

Hong Kong Qindex 06:32 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:13 GMT February 26, 2007
EUR/JPY : The consolidating range is [157.90] - [159.01] - [159.88]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 157.90.

Sofia mik 06:31 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:25
I m so sorry , please
gl/gt

Hong Kong Qindex 06:29 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 15:32 GMT February 26, 2007
GBP/JPY : The consolidating range is [235.49] - [235.66] - [237.09] - [239.20]. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 235.49.

madrid mm 06:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 06:14 GMT February 27, 2007
easy boy !!!
and don t forget the magic word ¨please¨
Soon give me 10 -15 minutes

PAR 120 should be defended , i guess, but expect the unexpected
8-)

Hong Kong Qindex 06:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : the following is still valid :-

Hong Kong Qindex 14:51 GMT February 26, 2007
USD/JPY : the odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is trading below the critical level at 120.93 - 121.35.

Hong Kong Qindex 00:15 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/JPY : My cycle references indicates that [120.93] - [121.35] is a critical level. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 119.59* - 119.62.

PAR 06:21 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Buy USDJPY at 120.26 ahead of 120.00 option protection held by some big UK and US players

Sofia mik 06:14 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Morning forum,
madrid, paste the headlins
gl/gt to all

Syd 05:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   

IMF chief warns of increasing yen carry trades
Reuters - 3 hours ago
WASHINGTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The head of the International Monetary Fund warned policymakers and investors about increasing growth in yen carry trades
IMF Managing Director Rodrigo Rato, addressing graduates from Harvard Business School, said there were great uncertainties about the overall size of the carry trades, which are evident in capital flows into countries like Brazil and Turkey, and in the growth of yen-denominated mortgages in countries ranging from Korea to Latvia. http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2633926220070227

Makassar Alimin 05:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
anyone shorting eurchf here for 1.6161? with stop loss 1.6225?

Syd 05:08 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% at 5997.0, hits 3-day low of 5996.2 as steep falls in Asia triggered decline, with Shanghai down more than 3%. "It looks like there was concern again about people geared up into high PE China stocks," says senior institutional trader. Market had weakened earlier after Greenspan said U.S. recession possible.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:55 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF : The critical level is located at [1.6242] - [1.6278]. The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.6242. A projected supporting level is positioning at 1.6131 - 1.6136. A barrier is expected at 1.6169 - 1.6172. A projected resistant level is positioning at 1.6359 - 1.6364.

Hong Kong Qindex 04:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/GBP : My cycle references indicate that [0.6701] - [0.6711] - [0.6755] is a consolidating range. A projected barrier is located at 0.6729* - 0.6731* and a projected resistant level is positioning at 0.6779. A projected supporting level is expected at 0.6672 - 0.6677.

Ottawa Mike 04:31 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
anyone else seeing GBP/USD at 1.9450 in the next 2-3 days being a possibility?

USA BAY 04:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY will fall to 235.50 imvvho and then back for a re-test to 241 before falling to 230-225 area. Anyone else think this is possible. Thanks

Bangkok bkk 04:17 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD:

Short-term view: 2 - 3 days => downward bias. Targeting below 1.9450

Medium-term view: 4 - 6 weeks => upward bias. A fall to around +/- 1.9400 should be consider as a good buying opportunity. Taget +2.0000

Rye,NY et 04:02 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Rye,NY et 04:09 GMT February 26, 2007
Eur/Usd...fwiw...In terms of trendline analysis, 1.3205 is a critical level today. A clear break takes the Bearish Channel off the table and reinforces the s/t bullish bias...
____________________________________________________
If today's High holds, and the market does not trade above 1.3197 tomorrow, then the Bearish Channel will not have been broken. The s/t bias would shift to down. Longs might want to liquidate...
On the other hand...If today's high breaks, then the level to watch (today--only) is 1.3215. That is a Bullish Trendline. If the market pulls back from that level, then we could see some downside but still within the context of a s/t Uptrend. If it breaks, then...the uptrend continues. Shorts should certainly cover...Just my read...GL/GT

HK REVDAX 04:01 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:41 GMT //Long way to go in the long run. What can people do with all that reserve? Buying up Sydney??? LOL

Syd 03:41 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK:China Shrs Slump Midday;Volatile Trade Likely N/T

USA BAY 03:19 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
[GBP/USD] After hitting an o/n high of 1.9662 in New York, the pair drifted lo...
[GBP/USD] After hitting an o/n high of 1.9662 in New York, the pair drifted lower towards the 1.9635 level on BOE's MPC member Blanchflower comments that inflation is likely to fall sharply in the coming months and will be below the 2% target in 2 years. The pair opened in Asia at 1.9636 and was hardly changed trading at 1.9640 currently. With contradicting data and comments with housing leaning on the hawkish side of things while Blanchflower leans towards the dovish side, the lack of clarity on which dynamic is having a more dominant impact on the economy should keep the BOE from acting on interest rates for the time being. This may be GBP negative and thus we prefer to sell rallies to 1.9670/80.

Bangkok bkk 03:10 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   

EUR/USD:

Small dip lower to around 1.3150 is possible for today, but should be consider as a good buying opportunity there. With target above 1.3260+ this week.

Atlanta South 03:00 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
HK Revdax
It has been awhile. Good to hear from you also. I'm out for
now, but it seems 3175 held & the upside is on again. Gt

Baku D.H 02:47 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
meet

USA BAY 02:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Same view here we should see imvvho 1.3130 for eur/usd today.

HK REVDAX 02:35 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 00:23 //Long time no see. My traderstation is working fine after I got to learn the tricks. Regarding Euro/$, I am prepared to go short but still waiting for a confirmation. No Long!

USA BAY 02:06 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
[STG/YEN] y/day suffered Stg weakness on papers" article warning about terr...
[STG/YEN] y/day suffered Stg weakness on papers" article warning about terror attacks on the West and Brown's preference of Lomax to King, and on Yen buying back actions by the models, so it fell from our mng high of 237.85 to the 236.29 NY low. 236.55-50 and 237.05-10 parameters are watched for an immediate break out either side. The cross is just sitting around the Kijun-sen at 236.77, and seems still has downside risk to the Senkou-span cloud top at 235.45 and the Tenkan-sen at 235.11 depending on actions at the 236.30-20 o/n low level. Also watch whether the headline pair of the [STG/DLR] can clear the key 1.9670 so that 237.30-60 could be achievable.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sydney ACC 02:05 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Mass exodus from Europe's equity markets as small investors fear crash

Could this be the catalyst for a correction to risk weightings and an adjustment to teh carrytrade:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/02/27/cnequity227.xml

USA BAY 02:04 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF] The pair dipped from an earlier high of 1.2333 to an o/n low of 1.2...
[USD/CHF] The pair dipped from an earlier high of 1.2333 to an o/n low of 1.2288 on growing geopolitical risks particularly involving hawkish remarks made by the Iranian leadership over the weekend regarding the country's uranium enrichment activities. This has given the CHF some respite from its exploitation by carry trade investors who has taken advantage of the CHF low interest by borrowing it to buy higher yielding currencies like the AUD, NZD and the GBP. The Jan UBS consumption indicator will be release today while SNB Jordan will speak at 1700 GMT. A slew of US data later today will dictate the pair's direction. Buying orders at 1.2270 by a European name and selling orders at 1.2330 by a French name will dictate the range this session.

Syd 01:59 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY sell-stops tripped around 120.50 and pair may fall to NY low around 120.30-35 where non-Japan investors, Japan importers may support, says senior customer dealer at major Japan bank; last at 120.41 on EBS. Adds some U.S. players selling as caught out by fall through 120.50, but should buy back before long

Syd 01:57 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY falls with non-Japan short-term investors trimming longs as EUR/USD's upward momentum above 1.3200 has proven weaker than expected, says senior dealer at major Japan bank; support at 158.60, then 158.20-30 (last at 158.67, near session low). Traders add GBP/JPY may fall, dragged down by EUR/JPY, with initial target of 236.25 vs 236.40 now

NY Ed 01:57 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Tell me about it, thanks GT

Atlanta South 01:54 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY ED
Nothing is ever as easy in this business as some would have you to believe. Gt

Bodrum OEE 01:51 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Could another factor to bust the credit bubble be the initial chf and or xau gains (and on the contrary of my previous thought, USD losses under such circumstances) compared to jpy for a reason or another ?

Atlanta South 01:48 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY ED/
Ref 01:40///The big money does move the market, but being
on board is the key. Indicators are great, but lags. Only
price is dependable. Watch 3175 & see if it hold. Just
my thoughts & not trading advise. gt

NY Ed 01:48 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
I am NOT sure who is on this site, I am just looking to clear about $1000 a day, It is way harder than I thought You Atlanta

NY Ed 01:45 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
You got it Brother

Atlanta South 01:43 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY ED/
I decided to tp as I'm mainly focused on the short term moves
now & didn't want to hold overnight. You are correct up still
the favored direction for now. If 3175 holds then long again
for another leg up. Tks for the views & gt.

NY Ed 01:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Technicals, SHMechnicals, we are all smart enough to know that it's NOT technicals or fundementals that move the market but "real" money, not us, the real money guys I am just sitting here trying to guess what they will do, about 1 minute before they make their move...

NY Ed 01:32 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
RSI MACD STOC on the 30 min were North
I also believe that the "real" money is shaking out the rookies.
all that said, it is still tanking and I am on this runaway train. I am just sitting here waiting for someone to throw the brakes.
The techincals are still there...

USA BAY 01:31 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

YEP, got to agree on that one. Less heartACHE.

USA BAY 01:30 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY ED,

If you don't mind, what is the reason for you to go long on gbp/usd and eur/usd. Any technical standpoint for your long positions. Tia

Sydney ACC 01:26 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
auckland peat 01:14 GMT February 27, 2007
An opportunity lost is better than cash lost.

NY Ed 01:21 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD & Cable, I think they are shaken out the "rookie" here, stay LONG my brothers..

Philadelphia Caba 01:19 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
auckland peat 01:14
put emotion aside .. but still ... I can't long kiwi 2 ..

auckland peat 01:14 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC - agreed ! thats why I dont do it.
my model says long but I cant bring myself to do that either lol.

Edmonton Rob 01:11 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
OTTAWA mjw 01:07 GMT February 27, 2007

Im in canada.... looking for about 1.9550 in the cable to go long
not sure really if thats something we will see over night or not

dc CB 01:09 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:33 GMT February 27, 2007

The issue (subprime lenders) has been on the front burners (one of) here for several days as the "sub prime" lenders reporting earnings this past week have crashed. I suggested "machiavelli" because one of them LEND (Accredited Home Lenders Holding Inc) had a pop when there was "press" about a private equity buyout offer, implying (as was the spin) "Value" in the sub-prime market. AKA the bottom is in! didn't work.

Hang onto yr Hats.

OTTAWA mjw 01:07 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
ottawa mike,

fwiw, i don't see cable breaking the 9708 area . than falling mike if you don't mind me asking are you in canada or the states . Iam from a small town in the states first name is mike, small world!

USA BAY 01:02 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

You are right nzd does not show any weakness. Perhaps data at 2.00gmt may give some direction. What is your thought on nzd/jpy since the japs are buying it. Thanks

NY Ed 00:49 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South...thinking LONG now on eur/usd

Ottawa Mike 00:48 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have any short term thoughts on GBP/USD?

Atlanta South 00:46 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Out EUR/USD short @ 3191.

Sydney ACC 00:41 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:47 GMT February 26, 2007
AUCKLAND PEAT,
Heard from one bank in Sydney today that Jap[anese banks were constantly after the NZD/JPY yesterday, this was also followed up into London. This flow into Kiwi semms unabated at prseent. Until there is a firm dopwntrend, and goodness knows when that will be, it is a very dangerous preoccupation shorting Kiwi.

hk ab 00:40 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
a volatile start in asian

Syd 00:37 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Omi Coy On Whether Paulson Chat To Include FX

Syd 00:33 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:25 GMT the mortgage carry trades especially europe ones were being talked about yesterday by many analysts on the talk shows , actually was the first time I have taken that into consideration if rates dont rise in Europe but find that Japan can stand more rate rises than anticipated , going to be a few scary moves ahead

dc CB 00:25 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:07 GMT February 27, 2007
Japan Omi:To Exchange Views On Econ Frankly With US Paulson

imho: Paulson will not do,say,imply, or nudge nudge wink wink, anything that would stem the huge flows of cheap money that is fueling the Wall Street machine... every weekend brings a new record buyout offers. This weeks TXU is now being spun as an EcoFriendly take over because the new entity will not be building a certain number of new coal fired power plants in Texas, they'll build some, but less than were planned. ??? Machiavelli anyone?

I think the only thing that scares them all is the subprime market, which could bust a lot of Yen funded mortgage package purchases. This unwind could be the trigger ( for carry trades) that has been ignored or glossed over in the recent "recovery" of housing stocks.

Atlanta South 00:23 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Any calls on EUR/USD? I'm long from 3157. Looks alittle
under pressure to move down @ this time. Tks & gt to
all.

NY Ed 00:19 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Napoli DC...and YOU Sir ????

Edmonton Rob 00:18 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
NY Ed 00:16 GMT February 27, 2007

Everyone seems to think the cable is going higher, a small few seem to think its gonna dip into 9575 before a spike upwards

NY Ed 00:16 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Napoli DC...what are your feelings about cable & eur/usd tonite?? I like them both long, above there highs today.

Syd 00:07 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Japan Omi:To Exchange Views On Econ Frankly With US Paulson

Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said Tuesday he would like to exchange views on domestic and overseas economies frankly with U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson next week.

"I'd like to talk frankly with Mr. Paulson about domestic as well as overseas economies. We haven't decided yet on what specifically to discuss," Omi told a regular press conference.

Paulson will visit Japan early next week.

When asked if he would discuss the current dollar/yen exchange rate, Omi declined to comment, only saying that he will talk about economic issues broadly.

Syd 00:03 GMT February 27, 2007 Reply   
Japan Feb 1-10 Trade Surplus Y416.27 Bln; Up 25.6% On Year

 




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