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Forex Forum Archive for 02/28/2007

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Auckland peat 23:50 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
Antipodeans will fall is my guess but I'm not playing it.

Syd 23:47 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Daily Technical Briefing
AUDUSD – As long as price remains above .7827, the potential exists for a wave 5 rally to above .7950 before a larger pullback. On the other hand, .7827 is the bearish pivot. Daily CCI has rolled over from above 100, which is often a reliable turn signal. In the very short term, it looks like a 5th wave down from .7887 will take price below .7853.

NZDUSD – Analysis is unchanged from yesterday – “Given the long term head and shoulders pattern along with the 78.6% fibo of .7470-.5927 at .7138, it is possible that Kiwi is near a major top. The best interpretation on the daily accounts for an extended wave 1 from .5927. As mentioned with the USDJPY, a correction following a 5 wave sequence where the 1st wave is extended tends to bottom near the bottom of the 2nd wave. Thus, expectations are for a decline to .6528 from near current price. The 78.6% fibo at .7138 is risk.” Similar to the AUDUSD, it looks like a small 5th wave is working down (from .7028).
http://www.fxstreet.com/technical/analysis-reports/daily-technical-briefing/2007-02-28.html

Manchester SA 23:35 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Lahore!!!

Its so good to see you posting on here again squire!

I'd appreciate your view on the USD/CHF if you have one.

Regards

Stone

NY Ed 23:01 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Anyone bold enough to play Cable LONG, I base this on the Daily chart trend, if we break 9642, I see 9690

USA BAY 22:59 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
AUCKLAND PEAT,

Please share your thoughts on nzd/jpy and aud/jpy as well as nzd/usd mate. thanks

Auckland peat 22:49 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 22:32 GMT February 28, 2007
where else did i read that ? ;+)

Lahore FM 22:46 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
am outta here.

LKWD JJ 22:41 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
sydojoe any thoughts on $y?

Lahore FM 22:41 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:40 GMT February 28, 2007
guess chf needs to correct a lot.general rally is a reason too.

LKWD JJ 22:40 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
is that due to general $ rally?

Lahore FM 22:35 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:32 GMT February 28, 2007
yep 1.2265 quite likely over the next day.get on board if you like.

LKWD JJ 22:32 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
any target for the swiss? iv been pulling some pips but theyve been for a beer and a lunch. !!! could use a pop to 12250 -12300.

Charlotte TH 22:32 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Unless eurusd can get over 3260, it risks another pullback to mid 3100s. If it can get below that, I think we have a top in place. Short eurusd here at 3225.

Lahore FM 22:29 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:09 GMT February 28, 2007
no need to be apologetic my friend,we have known each other for quite some time.

i am not offended in the least.happy trades.

GVI john 22:21 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Thu, Mar 1, 2007
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Capex
09:00 EZ/GE- Feb mfg PMI
09:30 UK- Feb mfg PMI
10:00 EZ- Feb HICP (flash)
CHART

13:30 US- Weekly Jobless (see 325,000 vs. 332,000)
13:30 US- Jan PI see +0.3% vs. +0.5%, core-PCE +0.2% vs. +0.1%)
CHART

13:30 CA- 4Q06 BOP
13:30 CA- Jan IPPI
15:30 US- Natural Gas
15:00 US- Jan Construction Spending (see -0.5% vs. -0.4%)
15:00 US- Feb Mfg ISM (see 50.0 vs. 49.3 Jan)

Fri, Mar 2, 2007
23:30 JA- Jan CPI
CHART

23:30 JA- Jan Unemployment
00:30 AU- Dec Retail Sales
00:30 AU- 4Q06 Current Acount
07:00 GE- Jan Retail Seles
10:00 EZ- Feb PPI
12:30 GE- Jan Retail Sales
13:30 CA- Dec GDP
15:00 US- Feb U of M Sentiment (see 93.5 vs. 93.3 Feb prelim)

Mon, Mar 5, 2007
09:00 EZ/GE- Feb Services PMI
09:30 UK- Feb Services PMI
15:00 CA- Feb Ivey PMI
15:00 US- Feb Services PMI

Full G-V Data Calendar

GVI john 22:15 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3234	118.40	1.2187	1.9638	1.1686	0.7880	156.71
High	1.3242	118.84	1.2244	1.9641	1.1736	0.7894	156.93
Low	1.3181	117.93	1.2173	1.9516	1.1663	0.7858	155.90
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/28/2007					
5 day 	1.3188	119.90	1.2275	1.9618	1.1630	0.7900	158.13
10 day	1.3165	119.84	1.2313	1.9570	1.1635	0.7887	157.78
20 day 	1.3085	120.39	1.2385	1.9583	1.1710	0.7830	157.53
50 day 	1.3046	120.22	1.2385	1.9584	1.1718	0.7832	156.83
100 day	1.2988	118.84	1.2352	1.9400	1.1554	0.7786	154.35
200 day	1.2853	117.43	1.2364	1.9037	1.1376	0.7654	150.96

Syd 22:11 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Australia's 4Q Capex Data;Key Prop For Forecasts

Australia's 4Q private capex numbers due today will be closely watched for any indication strong growth in business spending in recent years may be coming to an end, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe; "There are now fears the upturn is coming to an end, removing one of the key props under Australian economic growth." CBA forecasts capital spending at the top end of market expectations: up 6% in 4Q vs consensus expectations for 3.5% on-quarter rise. Figures due 0030 GMT

LKWD JJ 22:09 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:59 GMT February 28, 2007
no harm intended sir sorry.

manchester 22:03 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
does anyone think a short around 233 is a good idea on GBP/JPY? unless a clear direction breaks out i can see this ranging from 231-233 for a while

USA 22:01 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

YEP, u are right, tom 23.30gmt. thanks

Lahore FM 21:59 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:56 GMT February 28, 2007
am sorry,was away or else won't hold the reply back.

Philadelphia Caba 21:58 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:54
it's due tom. not today

Lahore FM 21:57 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:54 GMT February 28, 2007
Bay,jap data is tomm not today i think.

LKWD JJ 21:56 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
thanks fm . was a bit lower when i asked ....

USA BAY 21:54 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Any idea about the japan core cpi due today. tia

Lahore FM 21:47 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 20:50 GMT February 28, 2007
sticking to it JJ.

GVI john 21:08 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
WW try GVI Pro
contact [email protected]

Atlanta WW 21:01 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
I am looking for a good chat forum where experienced traders can share and discuss strategy. Anyone out there know of any good ones?

London AH 20:50 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
So where is the action? What pair?

LKWD JJ 20:50 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM2 2 of 2 on usdchf still a buy?

Atlanta South 20:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man/
If you are among us @ this time may I have your current
views on the EUR/USD? My model is showing more
downside for today, but thus far its not being seen.
Tks & gt.

dc CB 19:53 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
At one point this SubPrime darling was trading at $70.

02:37 ET Novastar Fin closes $1.9 bln asset backed securitization (NFI) 7.93 -0.11:Co announces that it securitized $1.9 bln of non-conforming mortgage assets. The transaction will be treated as a financing for GAAP reporting purposes and as a sale for tax purposes. The assets and accompanying debt will remain on the balance sheet of the co's taxable REIT subsidiary. Lead managers Deutsche Bank Securities, RBS Greenwich Capital and Wachovia Securities NovaStar Mortgage Funding Trust, Series 2007-1, which closed Feb 28, 2007. The transaction was structured into 17 rated classes of certificates with a face value of $1,845,384,000 Briefing.com

Auckland peat 19:31 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
always blows me away to see Fib levels so accurate. Eur$ retracement was perfect 61.8 level

Auckland peat 19:29 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
cheers for the short Eur/Chf post Turtle ПОИСК. I took a portion of that.
Currently long Eur$ - reentered at 3206 after prior tp at 47

Mtl JP 18:39 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
mm 18:04 / I would differ: (in)decision making is.

Lahore FM 18:25 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Dom 17:22 GMT February 28, 2007
Dom,it is s/l 1.6090 with target at 1.6180.

madrid mm 18:04 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
patience is a virtue they say

Money management is the most significant part of any trading system.

Delray Beach RMN 18:02 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
KL I had a view from the begginging and I stuck with it although I must adimt some days hurt more than others i think the long term view is on the right course, there is too much speculation and leverage in the carry trade and with Japan on the up and US clearly on the down (look at Gold) I feel by the end of march middle of April my Nerves are gonna be going to the bank, lol but I do agree It was a little ruff

Turtle ПОИСК 18:00 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Busy trying to resolve taximax war

Turtle ПОИСК 17:58 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 17:52 GMT February 28, 2007
i don't have an opinion rumors are 19736 finish the turtle channel

KL KL 17:57 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Delray Beach RMN

G'day...you must have NERVE of Steel for holding your Yen cross so long....

NYC Ed 17:52 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Turtle ПОИСК...what do you think for the rest of the day in Cable...

St. Annaland Bob 17:51 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   

truly wonder if AL & BEN live in the same world and ran/run the same FED ... my grandpa would say: "you pay taxes to people that their job is to create you virtual problems and solutions"

Turtle ПОИСК 17:50 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk aroundabout 09:19 GMT February 28, 2007
fwiw cci said buy i did got 100 points to the upside gbp-usd.

SINGAPORE GFX 17:49 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA MIK,

I am not holding any position, just wanted some idea on the beast. will not trade unless trend is clear. ty

Sofia mik 17:43 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE
If you want my imvho is ..BEAST..no imho at this moment
gl/gt

Bangkok bkk 17:39 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 17:34 GMT

I am sorry, I never trade GBP/JPY, don't know where this pair is going to... but if my view on GBP/USD correct, and GBP going down to below 1.9450, unlikely to see GBP/JPY bullish, only consolidate in the next 2-3 days, maybe

SINGAPORE GFX 17:34 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
BANGKOK BKK,

Your view on gbp/jpy pls. ty

Bangkok bkk 17:25 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:17 GMT

Agree. USD/JPY should rebound to 119.50 + in the next 2-3 days... I will buy on dip to 118.20/30, if see

Delray Beach RMN 17:25 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
I have been holding USD/JPY for almost three months in anticipation of the unwinding of this carry trade. IMVHO the same circumstance happened in 92 with LTCM and a mojority of other speculating institutions with the very fast and hard unwinding of YEN. It is easier to ride a falling knife than juggling them. with the current position of the JPY economy there is growth for the first time in years, my expectations are for a 115 yen before a 121 IMVHO

manchester 17:24 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GBP/YEN views?

Hong Kong Dom 17:22 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:08 GMT February 28, 2007
long eurchf at 1.6123.


Lohore, may I know your target and stop lvl, thanks

Lahore FM 17:17 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
118.40 looking good for longs.

USA BAY 17:16 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
As long as 120.4 is not broken up, should expect a down move with 117.4 and then 116.5 as next targets.

Bangkok bkk 17:13 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY around 119.60 - 120.60 should be consider as a good selling opportunity for investor...

Bangkok bkk 17:09 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY medium-term trend reversal just start.... SELL on rebound to 0.618 fibo(or even 0.50 fibo) will be nice, if see again in the next 2-3 days. USD/JPY should trade below 115.00 in the next 1 - 2 months.

IMHO.

Lahore FM 17:08 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
long eurchf at 1.6123.

Bangkok bkk 16:50 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD: Downside Risk --> Sell on rally to 0.7920 + , if see again

Bangkok bkk 16:46 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
This week, expect to see EUR going up against USD and GBP going down against USD until early Asian trading session on Friday.... Big move on EUR/GBP though :)

Still hold long EUR/USD , EUR/GBP and hold short
GBP/USD(1/2 position)

GBP/USD should trade below 1.9450 by the end of the week or early next week....

EUR/GBP target around 0.6780 +

EUR/USD target around 1.3265 - 1.3275

madrid mm 16:45 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Weber Signals Support for More Rate Rises After March (Update1)

By Simone Meier and Andreas Scholz

Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank council member Axel Weber indicated he favors raising interest rates further after the increase the bank has already signaled for March.

``In the medium term, a more significant normalization of monetary policy is needed and we'll discuss it in coming months,'' Weber said in an interview at an event in Frankfurt today. ``My opinion hasn't changed much.''

The ECB is poised to raise its benchmark interest rate to 3.75 percent from 3.5 percent at its next governing council meeting on March 8. Most investors are still betting the bank will increase its key rate further after next month, futures trading shows, even though inflation has held below the ECB's 2 percent ceiling for five straight months.

madrid mm 16:37 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
thx

St. Annaland Bob 16:29 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
men in black = death squads of primary dealers (a/c sweepers)

UK Alex 16:28 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 16:17 GMT February 28, 2007
I think he means the primary dealers.

madrid mm 16:17 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 16:14 GMT February 28, 2007
hearing the men in black get ready ... safe and happy trades


men in black ?

St. Annaland Bob 16:14 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
hearing the men in black get ready ... safe and happy trades

OTTAWA mjw 16:06 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
FYI
you can view talk on cnbc.com exclusive video events,, click on the market in a minute window .. its live i guess?

Dubai Tony 15:59 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
I have a question i hope someone can clear for me.Despite the Japanese having a weak yen how come they are not able to sell Toyotas and Nissans at a cometitive price.Instead Nissan and Chevrolets make some of their vehicles in Korea for the price edge.Just confused as to why the weak yen cant make the price competitive

dc CB 15:56 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
FYI. Bernanke is on CSpan Radio,

UK Alex 15:54 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Airbus CEO Gallois says Japanese are playing game of weak Yen

madrid mm 15:52 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
1 of many lesson i learnt is that bear markets are more violent than are bull markets and so also are their retracements..

dc CB 15:51 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke smooths it.
I'm still watching Yen and stox...it's not every day you can use Tick and Trin to trade Yen.

Lahore FM 15:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Chennai Hari 15:39 GMT February 28, 2007
day close above 1.1710 can see it upto 1.1780.

Philadelphia Caba 15:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
looking at 1.1740-50 to cap usd/cad today, imo..

Chennai Hari 15:39 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone comment on USD/CAD.I would like to know whats the upside left for this pair.Thankyou

Philadelphia Caba 15:33 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
hawkish Bernanke

Lahore FM 15:27 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
nice trade there TH.now looks some other traders were also with me on the way up.

Charlotte TH 15:24 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 21:48 GMT February 22, 2007
usdcad can rise to 1.1640 in asian session from where it can go to 1.1700.

Charlotte TH 16:57 GMT February 22, 2007
that was a trademark usdcad long.

Charlotte TH 16:48 GMT February 22, 2007
long usdcad 1.1611.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Closed half at 1713. Moved stop for rest to 1660.

UK Alex 15:23 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
*Bernanke - Spending Cuts, Tax Increases Can Result From Higher Debt

RIC fxq 15:22 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
new high now at 11727

Vail MC 15:21 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD high 1.1721

Atlanta South 15:18 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
My platform showing 1725.

mal semiji 15:16 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
anyone know high for usdcad ,,,tq

RIC fxq 15:12 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:08 GMT

it started last spring when the expected seasonal sales increases failed to materialize, I sold my apartment in February :) ! - top of the market FTW!

madrid mm 15:10 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
FWIW
Keep your technical systems simple. Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. 8-)

melbourne DC 15:09 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
for the moment .. 3 us data

Philadelphia Caba 15:09 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
NEWS: Japan, China & US Playing Weak Currency Game-Airbus Chief - according to Reuters.

melbourne DC 15:08 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
for the moment .. 3 us data

PAR 15:08 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Looks like recession in real estate already started in january .

Philadelphia Caba 15:04 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
out of eur/chf shorts, just sold usd/cad at 1.1705, s/l above 1.1760, t/p 1.1500

madrid mm 15:03 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
last day of the month, Fed Chairman speaking....Humm we might get some chppy moves imho

dc CB 15:02 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
watching the Yen trade since stox opened 1/2 hour ago, seems in lock step...all that cheap Yen that was leveraged on the Street.
Think that if stox continue tanking we'll bust 11750 easy and may see shanghi bc's 115 sooner rather than later in March.

madrid mm 15:01 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
New Home Sales 937K,

-16.6%

madrid mm 15:00 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
apologies

NYC Ed 15:00 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil Man...You Out There ????

UK Alex 15:00 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
*Fed Chairman Bernanke - US Economy Is In "Calm Before The Storm"

RIC fxq 14:59 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:50 GMT

2% or less but I can't `say I've seen it stated precisely but of course Chi is only one small area. If the national ISM prices component jumps tomorrow trouble!

The Netherlands Purk 14:56 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
FWIW: never thought i would use that abb. but the loonie is on a flight since 1.09, and unless 1,13 is broken the loonie will continue its flight, and every sell is ok as long as it is not for long term trade and keep tight s/l.I see a lot of people shorting it, and it wont work, because the loonie first eats your s/l and than goes back to your entry, a classical one.

melbourne DC 14:53 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:42 GMT February 28, 2007
Just kidding ..

again from GVI
GVI john 14:48 GMT February 28, 2007
Chicago PMI is now scheduled for 14:45 GMT, but subscribers get the # early.

IFR at 14:41gmt report that 'rumour' is for strong #, which is obvisouly wrong.

NYC 14:53 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Fed does not have a specified inflation target but 2% core is the implied target.

UK Alex 14:50 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 14:46 GMT February 28, 2007
Please remind me, what is the Fed's inflation target?

melbourne DC 14:48 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:42 GMT February 28, 2007
apologies .. should have said .. its DC model f/c #.

PAR 14:47 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Chicago is auto country and is heavily affected by weak yen .

RIC fxq 14:46 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm - check the prices paid component , doesn't augur for a rate cut soon at 63.2 vs 54.9 prior.

UK Alex 14:45 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:42 GMT February 28, 2007
That's housing starts.

Philadelphia Caba 14:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
mm, no 9:45 est

madrid mm 14:42 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 14:42 GMT February 28, 2007

isn t it due in about 15 minutes ?

melbourne DC 14:42 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
chi 47.9

UK Alex 14:39 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
PAR 14:33 GMT February 28, 2007
That's a classic!

Wonder whether there are any option expiries in Euro today?

PAR 14:33 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Hearing yesterday an ideal date to backdate some stock options . Lol.

melbourne DC 14:24 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
FROM GVI shanghai bc 23:32 GMT January 31, 2007
Japan's No.1 trading partner is China and Japan's 60% trade is with Asia..So if there is anyone who is going to complain loudly about weakening Yen, it must be China and Asian countries first..But for cultural differences,it is all done behind the doors in Asia while others are broadcasting the issue..Selling anything above Usd/Jpy 120.00 may be as good as money in the bank if one is not too much leveraged and have some patience..Fwiw..

shanghai bc Happy New Year . u r still the man to watch on forex moves. all the best n thx. David

slv sam 14:20 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
closed my long cad positions!
usdcad price action y/day and today could be telling usd trend already changed?GT

Philadelphia Caba 14:20 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
market talk about fresh kiwi and aussie issuance...

Toronto ¥ € $ 14:09 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   

Any views on GBP/JPY?

madrid mm 14:09 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
the french president of Airbus is speaking in English on BBC five live....Very interesting 8-)

¨Ze company is vherry goot¨ lol

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:08 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
If $CAD closed above 85 ...then next target is 1.1720. GL

madrid mm 14:07 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
san miniato ab 14:07 GMT February 28, 2007
Mtl JP 14:06 GMT February 28, 2007
thx

san miniato ab 14:07 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
15 gmt mm

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
mm 14:05 / at the top of the hour

madrid mm 14:05 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
what time does Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke speak today ?

madrid mm 13:48 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
how things change geographically
Wednesday All eyes were on the Shanghai market and whether it recovers or continues to sell-off.

who would have thought that a few years ago......

UK Alex 13:48 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
More IMM bailing out of $/Yen.

NYC Ed 13:41 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex... HD due for a dip, but I still love May Lumber @ 293
or check out USG at around $50, when the housing depression rebounds everyone WILL need SHEETROCK

Ldn Times 13:38 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Funadmentallybastards:)

UK Alex 13:37 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Home Depot warns of earnings shortfall

madrid mm 13:36 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
fwiw it is a big difference, no 3.5 versus 2.2 ?

lugano fc 13:36 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
but long... no thanks....better loose an opportunity to short then to be long maybie at the top of the cat bounce

madrid mm 13:35 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
(AFX) - The US economy grew at a much slower pace in the last three months of 2006 than earlier thought, with official figures revised down by the largest amount in a decade, the Commerce Department said today.
The department said the economy grew at a 2.2 pct annualised rate between October and December, some 1.3 percentage points slower than the previous estimate last month.
The latest figure was a tick slower than the 2.3 pct economists had expected.

lugano fc 13:35 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:32 GMT February 28, 2007

good let them do it....i am waiting the 157.50 to reopen my shorts...

Philadelphia Caba 13:29 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GDP 2.2

NYC Ed 13:18 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Your all probably right, I am just "giddy" that I got in on Cable @ 9584 Long and then out @ 9610, Days like this don't come around often, WHEW... I will watch along with guys like Cannes Oil Man until NYC open

UK Alex 13:17 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 13:13 GMT February 28, 2007
Looks like someone is trying to hold the Euro back to me. Possibly some option interest at the 1.3200 level.

NYC 13:16 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Dollar is down ahead of GDP revisions due at 13:30gmt

Boston Charlie 13:16 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
More buyers than sellers Ed.

London AH 13:15 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Plobably fundamental

NYC Ed 13:13 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Attention, anyone, why are we seeing a early BLAST OFF to the eur

NYC Ed 12:57 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man... Morning (here in NYC)...any faith in Cable or for that matter ANYTHING before NYC open

GVI john 12:41 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3236	117.98	1.2179	1.9615	1.1664	0.7875	156.15
High	1.3260	120.75	1.2307	1.9673	1.1672	0.7946	159.27
Low	1.3161	117.50	1.2145	1.9594	1.1590	0.7875	155.73
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/27/2007					
5 day 	1.3170	120.40	1.2313	1.9600	1.1614	0.7907	158.56
10 day	1.3154	120.08	1.2334	1.9568	1.1631	0.7883	157.95
20 day 	1.3075	120.50	1.2397	1.9583	1.1714	0.7824	157.56
50 day 	1.3044	120.23	1.2386	1.9584	1.1716	0.7831	156.82
100 day	1.2981	118.85	1.2358	1.9389	1.1551	0.7782	154.28
200 day	1.2851	117.40	1.2364	1.9032	1.1373	0.7652	150.90

Mtl JP 12:39 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
While it is relatively quiet in pre-session, a reminder fwiw:

Many of you will have your Trading platform "Hedging feature enabled" automatically over the week-end of March 03rd. Unless you pro-actively object in writing to the broker.

UK Alex 12:39 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Japan Machinery Orders on March 9th - should be an interesting one to watch.

Cannes Oil man 12:32 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Closed my $/CAD shorts , going to stay very light weight till US opens , as things could get rough.

PAR 12:03 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Japanese january auto output +4.2% y/y. Some contrast with GM and F . Most of it thanks to manipulated exchange rates .

UK Alex 11:58 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:32 GMT February 28, 2007
Don't be so naive, it will happen soon enough.

Philadelphia Caba 11:56 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
DJ MARKET TALK: Care Needed When Reentering Carry Trades -ABNA
.. There may be some that are looking to reenter carry trades on the cheap, but ABNA says it has a metaphor: "It's easier to catch a falling knife once it's bounced, for now, it's still falling."

Ldn Times 11:47 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Nah... It was a managed crisis made with series of diversified explosions earlier so to avoid the big one which was apparently coming, talking classic terms. So will stay out the whole week from markets - you never know as no one knows unless It happens. Even if around still people think of great magicians they conjure up an image of powerful people, fulfilling their every desire through spell-craft and sorcery. But sooner or later It will happen as times go by. Not now maybe...maybe tomorrow.

PAR 11:32 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Carry trades are not unwinding yet. Just some weak long liquidation. Big UK and US players establishing more carries at better levels.

Global-View Research 11:32 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Market Outlook
A rollercoaster session for equities yesterday, with the reining back of risk appetites also meaning that JPY shorts were progressively squeezed. The inevitable question is how long any adjustment in market positioning lasts and whether the development is a short-term phenomenon or the beginning of something more prolonged. Mellon FX Daily

pd cumino 11:30 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 11:10 GMT February 28, 2007
Why 122 pips?

ABHA FXS 11:10 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Sell USD/CAD at 116.77
Stop is 117.11
Target is 115.50
Risk is 39 pips
Reward is 122 pips
RRR is 3.1 to 1
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: high
Reward / Risk Ratio : very good

Auckland trotter 11:10 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Now looking at pressure for the EUR/USD to around 1.3216 on the 23.6% fib on the 5min 5day chart, which is around the I7 weekly pivot of 1.3219.

Just like to understand the price as to where it is at.

Syd 11:05 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Key Reversal In AUD/USD Signals Top - BarCap
AUD/USD had a key-reversal Tuesday and momentum is rolling over, bringing with it the convincing bearish signs Barclays Capital has been waiting for. The bank says the January pivot high and top of the 3-year range in the 0.7945-0.8000 area was clearly difficult to overcome and a top is now in place. Into next month the bank looks for a return to the year's low of 0.7700, with only a move back above 0.7950 negating the near-term negative outlook. AUD/USD currently trades at 0.7885.

Auckland trotter 10:57 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Next level for EUR/USD to break is 1.3192 which is I6 on the weekly pivots, I3 on the daily pivots, and corresponds to the 23.6% fib on the 5min 12hr chart.

Syd 10:49 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY In Deep Trouble -BarCap

] Risk reduction has driven USD/JPY through support levels and this will encourage further selling, says Barclays Capital. While capped below 119.10 near-term pressure is on the downside with trendline support at 116.70 the next target. If this gives way BarCap says the rate can revisit long-term support between 114.55 and 113.90.

EU theEUROqueen 10:35 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
yes indeed im counting with the caviar factor to give it the real push up to the sky !!!( BUT) without that factor the 1,98-1,99 it will be good

Auckland trotter 10:23 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Now see the EUR/USD coming up from around the 23.6% fib on the 4hr 20day chart of 1.3179.

Have seen the correction from the weekly R2 pivot of 1.3252 with the price failing to hit M3 of the weekly pivots at 1.3176 and I2 on the daily pivots at 1.3167 - S1 on the daily pivots being 1.3182.

General pressure I have as still up for the pair with RSI (5) over bought on the 5min 12hr and 1hr 5day charts.

Also the price is back above the 23.6% fib around 1.3161 on the 1day 6mo chart.

manchester 10:20 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY, I was looking at Oct 1998 fall from 241 level to 192 within two months....a beautiful 4000 PIPs move.....can it happen again?

Lahore FM 10:15 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:12 GMT February 28, 2007
ab,imho,the carry unwind is officially over.usdjpy has found a stay at daily support area 117.60/90.back up into 120's when range consolidation above 117.90 completes.

St. Annaland Bob 10:15 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 10:12 GMT February 28, 2007

thanks ... I hope that the caviar factor will take it's toll, the 5% call over 2006 high looks workable ... it will be very helpful if you will share with me your roll over strategy with this expensive trade ... happy trades ... roger!

hk ab 10:12 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
118.80 support was too crucial to be broken yesterday.

Maybe a spike to there and avalance continues.

EU theEUROqueen 10:12 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
bob the range now b4 the break s 1,85-1,95..and HOPEFULLY the 2,2*-2,3* in a L/T

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:00 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Buy EUR$ @ 1.3150/60 with stop below 40. GL.

St. Annaland Bob 09:53 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 09:49 GMT February 28, 2007

I do trade this one on regular base and treat the current period as end of pregnancy (9 months time frame) ... do you mind to be more specific with levels?

EU theEUROqueen 09:49 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 09:37 GMT February 28, 2007
yes bob ..trade well

manchester 09:38 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY - any views on this, are we looking at 22950?

St. Annaland Bob 09:37 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen

EURTRL (EURO/TURKISH LIRA) ... right?

St. Annaland Bob 09:32 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 09:28 GMT February 28, 2007

happy day to you too ... you mean the Turkish Lira, right? (TRY) ... what are the levels on your mind? ... guess you treat 1.83 as the bottom, do I get you right?

Bangkok bkk 09:31 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD => Please keep in mind that medium and longer term trend remain bullish. A fall to 1.9400 +/- should be consider as a good buying opportunity for investor..(big players)... targeting 2.0000+ in the long run

--------------------------------------

Bangkok bkk 04:17 GMT February 27, 2007
GBP/USD:

Short-term view: 2 - 3 days => downward bias. Targeting below 1.9450

Medium-term view: 4 - 6 weeks => upward bias. A fall to around +/- 1.9400 should be consider as a good buying opportunity. Taget +2.0000

Syd 09:30 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Commodities In For A Rocky Ride As China Creates Ripples
China has sneezed, and the commodities markets have caught a cold.

Yet so far the rout seems only to be a sniffle, with the metals and energy markets paring overnight losses and edging higher once more Wednesday.

Analysts say the selloff in commodities was long overdue, predicting the markets will be in for a rocky ride over the next few days until things settle down. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell by roughly 9% Tuesday, the largest selloff in a decade. As the global stock markets recoiled from the possibility that the world's fourth largest economy could be about to raise interest rates, commodities faced up to the fact that their largest consumer base may be about to contract. Referring to the fear that a rate hike might be the catalyst for a sharp slowing in the Chinese economy, Gorey said much of the current configuration of commodity markets depends on continued Chinese economic growth.

"So a slowdown would cause big moves. That slowdown is not certain by any means, but the market's imagination in these circumstances can riot," Gorey added.

London-based Numis Securities analyst John Meyer agreed that the key to near-term price direction will be whether or not investors keep their nerve.

"China's stock market barely reflects 9% of China's gross domestic product and is not seen as a driver of China's wider economy," he said.



EU theEUROqueen 09:28 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
happy day Bob..

thanks for ur kindness ..maybe bob one day when the 1,4** will print..by the way u can make a nice profit with the TYR..

happy trade

Bangkok bkk 09:25 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
for EUR/GBP: expect to see this pair test above 0.6780 sooner than later...

Bangkok bkk 09:22 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Still hold long EUR/GBP since 0.6711 also, target 0.6775+
Also hold long EUR/USD for 1.3260+

Already closed out all AUD/USD short position at 0.7860

Lahore FM 09:20 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 09:19 GMT February 28, 2007
good call there!

Bangkok bkk 09:19 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GBP collapsed as I was expected, now close 1/2 GBP short position since 1.9645 at 1.9535,...... still holding short another 1/2 position, target below 1.9450


Refer to:

Bangkok bkk 18:10 GMT February 26, 2007
GBP/USD buying is quite risky this week.

All GBP long position 7-10 days ago from those big sharks have been closed out already.

GBP is going to drop like a water fall tomorrow or until the end of the week.....FWIW

hk ab 09:19 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 04:32 GMT February 28, 2007
Yes, and I agree with that 8 days ago pattern too.

slv sam 09:18 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 09:14 GMT /
:) I know! but what next? GT

Lahore FM 09:17 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
sold gold 673.30.

hk ab 09:14 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Sam//dlr/chf target 1.2150......TOP CALL......

gold and yen might fly hand in hand in the coming months ahead.

Syd 09:11 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
LINK

Syd 09:03 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Looks Like USD's On The Turn - JP Morgan
JP Morgan had been looking for EUR/USD to test 1.3250-1.33 and cable 1.97-1.98 before a top formed, and the USD made a recovery. The bank says those targets have pretty much been met (EUR/USD 1.3260 high, cable 1.9673) and considering the action seen in other markets it looks for the USD to start turning in the days ahead, back toward the summer highs of '06. EUR/USD now at 1.3197, cable at 1.9544.

Lahore FM 08:58 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 08:49 GMT February 28, 2007
quite agree!

London Gooner 08:49 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 15:13 GMT February 27, 2007
Cable below 1.9620 risks 1.9550 area.
Seems struggling ahead of 1.9678 and EURUSD may correct from current levels.
*****************
Potential for cable to have stalled at 1.9680 for the time being for sub 1.9400 levels in due course since EURUSD has now logically started it's correction which can aim 1.3050 area in waves off course.


Haifa ac 08:48 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:43 GMT //
Monthly chart is still higher high, higher low, higher "close".
Today is last day of month.

Syd 08:46 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
US Data Could Be Bullish For USD -RBC

US data later Wednesday could well have some positive surprises for the USD, says RBC Capital Markets. Although 4Q GDP (1330 GMT) is expected to be revised down to 2.2% from 3.5%, the bank says it is looking for a 2.6% increase. Likewise, new home sales (1500 GMT), which are forecast to have fallen 3.6% last month, could actually rise by 0.8%. "US data today could be bullish USD," the bank says.

Sydney ACC 08:43 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
FTSE and DAX both off more than 1.1% this morning.

Sofia mik 08:40 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:02
Tnx a lot of!
Good trade!

Lahore FM 08:33 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
nzdusd may make it to 0.6926.

Lahore FM 08:33 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
usdcad headed for 1.1740 straight ahead.

Sydney ACC 08:30 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:29 GMT February 28, 2007
Thanks best laugh I've had all day.

Srini Hyderabad 08:30 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Madrid, mm

Ya..That is true...

madrid mm 08:29 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:27 GMT February 28, 2007

you lucky b$%&/()!"
8-)

Sydney ACC 08:27 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:24 GMT February 28, 2007
Another day at 27 degrees in Sydney, late thunderstorm, but still in the clutches of a drought.
Been in the mid 20's almost all Summer not like last year when on New Years Day it was 43 degrees.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:27 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges are 1.9500 - 1.9537 - 1.9574.

madrid mm 08:26 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
another important rule to bear in mind fwiw
-If you cannot afford to lose, you cannot afford to win.

madrid mm 08:24 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 08:20 GMT February 28, 2007

better and warmer days ahead in Madrid as well, only + 10 C this am though 8-)

Ldn Times 08:21 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
No trading today from here. Just watching stops fishing ahead of the Dow/Yileds lowering check up, and some economic datas to be released. Nervous the whole with a pause in Shangai that is now -5 pct from yeserday after an 8.5pct slump, Nikkei added lower 2.85 pct.

Nice crash manevouring, seemingly would say was central banks driven, so to offset the big one anticipatively.

Lahore FM 08:20 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
morning everyone.beautiful spring time here in south asia.wish you all a good spring too.
carry unwind seems to have reached terminus with usdjpy now trading 118.55.what unfolds next may not be outright run for carry again but a general strength for USD.

madrid mm 08:07 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
bloomberg.com
Yen Volatility Surges as Investors Cut Bets Japanese Currency to Decline Volatility on yen options climbed to the highest in almost two weeks after investors exited bets Japan's currency would decline.
U.K. Pound Poised for Biggest Monthly Decline Versus Euro in Almost a Year The pound is set to drop this month by the most against the euro since March on expectations the European Central Bank will outpace the Bank of England in raising interest rates, making the U.K. currency less attractive to hold.

Sydney ACC 08:02 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 06:54 GMT February 28, 2007
I wished you'd asked me an wasy question such as the meaning of life. LOL
Kiwi, GBP and AUD will get buffetted by the variability in markets over the next few months. On the one hand the carry trade will continue teh interest differentials are just too great. Seven per cent per annum adds up, however, at one stage this morning Kiwi was down 4.25% versus JPY. Get a few days like that and even risk lovers become risk averse.
We've seen phenomenal flows into Kiwi over the last six months, Uridashi's have provided 70% of the finance for NZ's current account deficit.
Looking forward I can't see the flows of the last six months being sustained. Kiwi will depreciate regardless of the underlying interest rate. Notwithstanding this weeks stock market falls the Nikkei pffers a viable alternative to the carrytrade.
For the next couple of months, my guess is as good as anyone's and Oil Man has been pretty good with his predictions of the Kiwi, he may have a better idea, but I would say we may see it down to 65 cents.

madrid mm 07:41 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA JFO 07:24 GMT February 28, 2007
I am sure you know that i use GMT +1
EUR-USD
R3 = 1.3376
R2 = 1.3317
R1 = 1.3278
Pivot = 1.3219
S1 = 1.3180
S2 = 1.3121
S3 = 1.3082
H = 1.3259
L = 1.3161
C = 1.3239

Rye,NY et 07:33 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...We just had a nice bounce off the former Bearish Channel Resistance line. I think that puts in the low for today. I'm long from 1.3210; stop at 1.3195; looking for another up day with a target of 1.3303...fwiw...GL/GT

GENEVA JFO 07:24 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Hihi Madrid mm
May i ask yr Eur/usd levels for today plse ?

madrid mm 07:05 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi , we should have more days like yesterday 8-)

Asian stock markets "stabilising" after sharp falls (at 0615GMT): Nikkei -2.85%, Shanghai +1.45% (after yesterday's plunge), Aust ASX -2.69%, NZ -1.52%, Singapore -3.91%, S Korea -2.56%, HK -2.88%.

US Treasury Sec Henry Paulson has briefed Pres George Bush over market decline. White House says US economic fundamentals are sound and President Economic advisors are keeping an eye on the market.

Pres George Bush will nominateJP Morgan's Timothy Ryan as Treasury Undersecretary to succeed Tim Adams.

Chief Government spokesman Yasuhisa Shiozaki says the Government is paying close attention to stock price moves. Japan economy is continuing sustained recovery supported by firm corporate sector. Reiterates FX moves should reflect fundamentals.

BoJ Atsushi Mizuno says BoJ will raise rates gradually. Keeping rates low regardless of economic conditions could prompt JPY falls. Important for BoJ to aim for normalisation of interest rates. Concern on whether individual investors are fully aware of the risks of JPY carry trades. Need to monitor investment by individual investors in JPY carry trades. Future risks if the delay in corporate activity impact filter through to the household sector.

BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui says he is watching future stock movements with strong interest, but calmly. Need to monitor global impact of BoJ decision in guiding policy

Thai Finmin Pridiyathorn Devaluka announces shock resignation.

NKS: The BoJ is vexed by persistent market speculation that the next rate hike is in distant future, as that may embolden currency traders to increase yen carry trades and send the yen lower.

Japan Retail sales for January 0.8%y/y, +2.3%m/m, while industrial output for January -1.5%m/m, its biggest m/m fall in almost 3 years since Feb 2004.

Japan housing starts -0.7%y/y, worse than expected. Construction orders +33.9%y/y.

Focus on Asian stocks markets and carry trades after global stocks selloff and JPY carry trades unwinding. Asia stocks markets fell sharply before stabilising, with Shanghai now in positive territory.

Interest still to sell Cross/JPY, unwind JPY,CHF carry trades.

Choppy moves in late Asian session, as fresh waves of selling from large US funds, houses and Middle East accounts pushed USD/JPY to lows of 117.96 this round (day lows 117.93) from 118.30-40, and EUR/JPY to 155.90 (day lows 155.89) from 156.40-50.

Good buying from Japanese importers, mega-city banks, oil corporates and lifers, investors and UK, Asian names pushed USD/JPY back up to 118.40-45, and EUR/JPY to 156.35-40 in what is very volatile and nervous market.

The day started with USDJPY coming off lows as Japanese custodian, agricultural banks, importers, investors bought large, pushing it to day highs of 118.72 from sub 118, before coming off. Talks of USD/JPY options at 117.50, stops below. EUR/JPY stoploss below 155.50.

EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD still weighed by Cross/JPY offers. Hearing some sovereign demand in Cable, EUR on dips supporting downside, but focus still on the Cross/JPY plays today, with NZD/JPY remains heavy after plunge to 82 lows yesterday.

:Nikkei -583.09pts or 3.22% at 17,536, with TSE halting Topix futures temporarily. JGB futures surged to 3-m highs on back of Nikkei selloff. 10-yr yield -0.010% at 1.625%

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 117.89/118.72, EUR/USD 1.3212/1.3247, GBP/USD 1.9614/1.9644, USD/CHF 1.2173/1.2203, AUD/USD 0.7855/0.7884, NZD/USD 0.6970/0.7019.

Sofia mik 06:54 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Hi forum
Sydney ACC 05:30
PLs, share your view fo nzdusd for next 3-4 months.
have a nice day to all!

Syd 06:50 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Chris Locke: Oystercatcher Management not sure if anyone here follows him, but says that the low for the Yen is in across the board also the equity markets just chatting on cnbceurope with Jeff cutmore

SINGAPORE GFX 06:23 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Thanks SYD

GENEVA DS 06:12 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain...

do agree with you... NOR will the Swiss National Bank, the European Central Bank or BOE or National Bank of Australia rise rates...... probably safe to go long USD basket...

Syd 06:11 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
NZDJPY – A very large C wave may be under way that will eventually take prices below 68.19. The chart below shows the 5 wave advance from October 2000 to December 2005 and the ensuing A and B waves (of the A-B-C correction). The long term C wave (beginning at 85.84) would equal the A wave (87.11-68.19) at 66.88 – which is very close to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. A decline below the steep support line drawn off of the August 2006, December 2006, and February 2007 lows bolsters the long term bearish outlook. If this is indeed a C wave that is just starting, then 85.84 should hold as resistance and the decline should accelerate.

LINK

Bahrain Bahrain1 06:10 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Hi frnds....Good day to you all....
I think ones all this miss about the carry trades is finished, we should see $yen moving up again....with Japan data this morning been negative...I don't think BOJ will raise rates soon.
Good luck

USA BAY 06:01 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY heading to 22950

Syd 05:58 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
JPY Gains Vs EUR, USD As Importers Exit Mkt
EUR/JPY, USD/JPY fall as U.S., Japan short-term players sell while Japan importers, who have been supporting both during Asia session, about to exit markets for day, says senior interbank dealer at major Japan bank. USD/JPY targeting 117.75 (last at 118.22 on EBS), while EUR/JPY may break below 156.00 in coming hours (last at 156.26); add if Europe session starts with USD/JPY below 118.00, then pair could very probably fall below overnight NY low of 117.50 in global day.

Mumbai NS 05:40 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
ACC lol guddy one cheers!

Syd 05:38 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:30 GMT Yes agree with you , I heard last week Sainsbury's was being bought by Arabs soon, they will be selling Opera House next , very sad state of affairs :-((

Sydney ACC 05:30 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Syd 05:20 GMT February 28, 2007
I can't help but believe if we go on consuming imports at the rate we are, the US economy goes into recession, risk weightings increase we are going to have a current account problem similar to 1985 when Keating drew the analogy with a banana republic. Despite the best commodity prices in decades the current account worsens. Why? Because foreigners own so much of our companies.
Same goes for the UK and NZ.
GBP should take a bath too, the UK problem is worse than ours. The stock market should quieten down now with regard to private equity and takeovers, so there won't be that inflow to support sterling this year.
Just my poor ramblings, every one focuses on the US but at least they areincreasing their exports.

Syd 05:20 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Australia's current account deficit likely widened to A$14.00 billion in the fourth quarter of 2006 from A$12.08 billion in the third quarter, according to survey of 26 economists Wednesday.

Friday's current account figures are the first in a string of data releases in the next week that will help economists shore-up final estimates for next Wednesday's fourth quarter GDP result.

Friday's data will be followed by fourth quarter company profit and business inventory numbers Monday and government spending Tuesday.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics is due to publish the latest current account data Friday at 0030 GMT.

Stagnant export growth combined with a large increase in imports in the quarter contributed to a wider deficit forecast, according to National Australia Bank group chief economist Alan Oster. We need to see strong growth in consumption and investment because otherwise you'll end up with very weak fourth quarter GDP numbers," Oster said."People are wondering what's going to fill that hole in the rest of GDP?"

Alaska Moon 05:09 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:07 GMT February 28, 2007
========
Good one, ACC.....LOL

Sydney ACC 05:07 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Congress is going to repeal the 22nd amendment and nominate GWB as president for life.

USA BAY 05:04 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
INDONESIA SOLO RADEN MAS,

Pls, what is it. tia

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:42 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
good afternoon.
to all my friends.... I have good info that make me to think about very bad news of usd in the future.

Cannes Oil man 04:35 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Currently the charts are looking quite similar to 8 Days ago move (big run down , a 80 pips upside , followed by a new massive downside).

We'll see.

Cannes Oil man 04:32 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Morning , ab.

I am still short 2 entries 25 and 75..

Will see whats up tomorrow , if yen stops , then $/CAD will make the run down , as we go back into the familiar territory (market selling overvalued us$) , if yen keeps firming up into the next session , the CAD might have some problems ahead , and we go back to the trading range 1.17__1.18.

gl

Syd 04:26 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Australia's current account deficit probably widened in the fourth quarter to A$14 billion ($11.1 billion) in the three months ended Dec. 31 from A$12.1 billion in the previous quarter, according to the median estimate of 26 economists surveyed released on March 2 at 11:30 a.m. in Sydney

melbourne saint 03:33 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
I have USD/JPY high 118.72 on Meta which was also pivot

Syd 03:30 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
China 06 GDP +10.7%; Tightening Expectations Persist
BEIJING

China's National Bureau of Statistic left its 2006 economic growth estimate unchanged at 10.7%, keeping tightening expectations high days ahead of the start of the annual legislative conference, analysts said Wednesday.

The National People's Congress starts March 5 to deliberate the nation's economic policy and targets for this year.

Sofia mik 03:20 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
0321 GMT [Dow Jones] Japan Finance Minister Omi declines to say anything
specific on stock market plunge, JPY rise, other than that he's watching
markets closely; not much he can say in any case, as forex intervention
probably out of question at this point, any steps to support share market even
less likely.(KDM)

Sofia mik 03:18 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
eurusd -3240 bid
usdjpy 11870 bid

Singapore Sfx 03:17 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
118.73 1.3242 highs so far ..

mal semiji 03:09 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
hi all ,,, anyone know high for usdjpy and eurusd ,, thanks

Silverthorne CO AL 03:05 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 01:44 GMT February 28 He wasn t asking you to stop posting but just to state source thats all.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the ranges of 118.15 - 118.25 - 118.41 - 118.69 - 118.84 - 118.91 ...

hk ab 02:43 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
oilman, can you shed us some light on dlrcad short? TIA.

Hong Kong Qindex 02:39 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : the current expected trading ranges are [229.78] - 230.66 - 231.95 - 232.75 - 233.25.

Syd 02:36 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Traders Dumping Long SGD/JPY; May Prop Up USD/SGD

Tumble in USD/JPY spurring traders to exit long SGD/JPY carry trade, with cross at 77.60 after dipping to 77.00 overnight from over 79.00 yesterday. Trader says if USD/JPY continues to slide, USD/SGD "won't drop as much" given expected support from further SGD/JPY selling. While USD/SGD and USD/JPY diverge, "the big story will be outflow of funds," with traders watching shift from U.S. equities into U.S. Treasurys for clues on Singapore; however, "I would not be surprised if Singapore's stock market fell another 5% to 10%" without causing major flight to safe assets "since we're just off an all-time high."

Syd 02:18 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Stay On Alert For Possible EUR/JPY Fall - Dealer

EUR/JPY rises as profit-taking short-term Japan players join bandwagon of buying importers, but pair may fall again as importers complete buy orders, says senior interbank dealer at major Japan bank. Notes pair may rise to as high as 157.00 in Asia, but must be careful of a fall as "it may be a sign that importers have finished their job, and investors have started selling (the euro/yen)".

HK [email protected] 02:15 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   

From simple chart gazing and computations, the minima on Dec 5 2006 at about 114.50 and on 05/17/06 at 109 are the significant focal supports.

No need to look too much on economic news; The motto of this market this time is:

"I WANT TO GET MY MOMEY BACK, OR WHATEVER REMAINS OF IT"

So if Jap. Econo. news are not so so, and Aussie and NZ news are better and tension mounts in the gulf hmmm.
If the markets build that situation on non rational arguments why should they be counted now?

Syd 01:53 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Commodity Currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) – The commodity currencies collapsed today on the back of carry trade liquidation in the high yielding currency pairs. Australian data was stronger than expected with new home sales rising for the second straight month. We heard encouraging words from the typically grim Costello who said that small businesses were more confident. New Zealand on the other hand reported softer inflationary numbers. The RBNZ followed up the report with a downward revision to inflation expectations. We could continue to see more liquidation out of the high yielders as we close in on the Japanese fiscal year end on March 31st. censored.COM

Cannes Oil man 01:46 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 01:42 GMT February 28, 2007

Well Ahe, no insults to Chinese population intended , however copyrights(and intellectual rights) ARE abused in China , Russia , Thailand and so forth.

USA BAY 01:45 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

Agree with Ahe, not a nice remark.

HK [email protected] 01:45 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
.............................NO GUNMEAT=NO WAR.....................

Philadelphia Caba 01:24 GMT February 28, 2007
sexy bank report: Reuters is reporting that margin traders in Japan are buying usdjpy at abnormal level.

BTW, may I know what is abnormal level. Is that a Tech. term?

Syd 01:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Current-Account Risk
Brazil's real, Turkey's lira and the South African rand led a slump in developing-nation currencies yesterday after China's main stock index sank 9.2 percent, the biggest drop in a decade.

``The drop in Chinese stocks has given momentum for the Australian and New Zealand dollars to move to the downside,'' said John Horner, currency strategist at Deutsche Bank AG in Sydney. ``Typically, high-yielding currencies are associated with reasonably wide current-account deficits and so are riskier than lower-yielding currencies.''

Australia's current-account deficit was 5.4 percent of gross domestic product at the end of the third quarter, while New Zealand's gap for the year to September was 9.1 percent.

Cannes Oil man 01:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
If that NZD keeps going my GBP/NZD to 2.88 will be hit much faster than my alloted 2 month strike.(taken spot ref 2.7590 see last week)

Though NZD is bouncing atm , as yen is cooling down, breaking past 119.30 will be however difficult without a news during this asian session.

Good night.

USA BAY 01:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
NYC ED,

Last post on articles since I promised you this,


[GBP/USD] rallied from an earlier low of 1.9592 to an o/n high of 1.9675 bef...
[GBP/USD] rallied from an earlier low of 1.9592 to an o/n high of 1.9675 before p/taking saw it drifting down to the current lvl of 1.9630. However mkt players believe the GBP has more room on the downside given that it had broken good support in the GBP/JPY cross with more selling in store over coming sessions which will further depress the GBP/USD. The BBA reported Jan mortgage approvals fell 16% from a year ago giving further evidence that the BOE's three rate hikes were beginning to bite. Mkt players will be focussing on more housing data due today from the Land Registry and from the Nationwide Building Society for confirmation of a slowing housing mkt which will be negative for the GBP. Blanchflower said he believes UK inflation will fall "pretty sharply" this year. Buying orders at 1.9580 by a European name will provide some support while selling orders at 1.9640/50 by US invt bank and Asian name and others will keep the topside intact this session.

Hong Kong Ahe 01:42 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Cannes Oil man 01:38 GMT February 28, 2007
.. unless on Chinese sites. .. Please remove this. It is abusive.

Cannes Oil man 01:38 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY:
No one asked you to stop posting , but when you post other's material , you have to provide the name, source etc ..This is standard as copying other's work you infringe on intellectual property , copyrights and so forth..Just look around , you'll see it's standard around the world , unless on Chinese sites.

Syd 01:30 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Shanghai Composite Index Opens Down 1.3% At 2734.59


SHANGHAI China's shares extended their losses on the market's opening Wednesday, after they posted their biggest fall in more than a decade Tuesday on institutional profit-taking in large-capitalized firms.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, opened down 1.3% at 2734.59. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 2.0% to 695.49.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slumped 8.8% Tuesday, marking its steepest drop since Feb. 18, 1997 when it plunged 8.9%.

Analysts said Tuesday's tumble wiped around CNY1 trillion off the market's value.


Sydney ACC 01:25 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
U.S. Officials to Meet With Iranians at Talks on Iraq

Serious change of tactics on iraq by US Administration - on NY Times website 20 minutes ago.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/27/washington/27cnd-diplo.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Philadelphia Caba 01:24 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
sexy bank report: Reuters is reporting that margin traders in Japan are buying usdjpy at abnormal level.

Charlotte TH 01:20 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 21:04 GMT February 27, 2007
Longing eurjpy here at 156.20, usdjpy here at 118, gbpjpy at 231.44.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
closing eurjpy and gbpjpy at 156.80 and 232.75. stop on usdjpy moved to 118.

USA BAY 01:19 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
CANNES OIL MAN,

No problem, I won't post any articles anymore.

Cannes Oil man 01:17 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
When you post a link or material you have to post where it comes from..The stuff is probably with "copyrights" and so forth , this coul d play against GV.

USA BAY 00:55 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
[AUD/USD] was sold by a US prime from the 0.7880 level to reach an intraday l...
[AUD/USD] was sold by a US prime from the 0.7880 level to reach an intraday low of 0.7854. Further selling in the AUD/JPY by Japanese Sec house above the 93.00 level also dragged the AUD/USD lower. The pair was within striking distance of strong support at 0.7846 and market players reckon it will be tested and broken during this session. Jan private credit and Q4 construction work done due at 0.0030 GMT may give an excuse for the market to sell the pair if it comes in weaker than expected. That said, we prefer to sell rallies to 0.7890 for a 0.7825 test.

NY Ed 00:53 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY ...Thanks,

USA BAY 00:48 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
NYC ED,

I will post asap when I get it. gt/gl

USA BAY 00:47 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
[N-225] plunged 4.07% to a low of 17,382.79 in opening trade as all 33 sectors...
[N-225] plunged 4.07% to a low of 17,382.79 in opening trade as all 33 sectors on the TSE are pressured by a broad-based sell-off as investors react to the o/n plunge in US stocks. Energy stocks such as Nippon Oil, AOC Holdings, Cosmo Oil, Inpex, etc plunged sharply in reaction to the sharp drop in oil and commodities prices. Shares of exporters such as Sony, Canon, Toshiba, Hitachi, Pioneer etc are hurt by the YEN's sharp rise on massive unwinding of carry trades. Domestic demand-linked sectors such as retail, banks, insurance, non-bank financial, real estate, services are hurt by the unexpected 0.8% y/y drop in Jan retail sales, worse than mkt f/c of 0.2% y/y rise.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Syd 00:45 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Costello: China Econ Will Face Corrections, Mkts Immature

NY Ed 00:44 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY ...gotta a read on Cable yet???

Syd 00:39 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Costello:Shr Mkt Fall Follows Other Markets,China
Expects Volatility On Shr Mkts For Some Time
Local Mkt Has Gained 19% In Past Year
External Events Influence Local Mkts




Philadelphia Caba 00:38 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
PAR 00:27 GMT
buy some more? where did you start? above 120?

Baltimore Zoltan 00:36 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
thanks Syd

Syd 00:29 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Baltimore Zoltan 00:28 GMT nothing yet

Baltimore Zoltan 00:28 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:53 GMT February 27, 2007
Australia's Costello Plans 0030 GMT Briefing

Is that still on? Anyone has access to details? Thanks!!

PAR 00:27 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Buy some more USDJPY at 118.20 . Expect some Kampo and Boj intervention to lift USDJPY again to above 120.00. Otherwise 520 pips in interest differentials will make the profit. Patience and discipline. The Nikkei will crash .

RIC fxq 00:21 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
Van jv 00:06 GMT

Si!

SINGAPORE GFX 00:19 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

Great. thanks a lot for that. really appreciate any views. thanks again. gt/gl

Syd 00:16 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 00:08 i dont trade that pair myself Cannes Oil man is best for that --- I will check out some that do

SINGAPORE GFX 00:08 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

So what is good level to short nzd/jpy. tia

Syd 00:07 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Faces Multiple Sources Of Risk - Westpac

Uncertainy likely to persist in currency markets for next 24 hours and in that environment AUD/USD to remain under pressure, says Robert Rennie, currency strategist at Westpac. Focus is on risk factors of soft U.S. data, systemic risk stemming out of U.S. sub-prime debt market jitters, Iran's nuclear ambitions. Notes 0.7600 to 0.7900 band still in play, pair to remain a sell for now.

Van jv 00:06 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
JA data-Thanks
expectation was for positive data---??

Syd 00:04 GMT February 28, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: NZD/JPY May Target 80, Remains Vulnerable - ABN
NZD/JPY will remain shaky this week given sharp unwinding in carry trades on back of risk aversion caused by global rout in equities, could test 80.00, says Sydney-based ABN AMRO director of FX trading Greg Gibbs; "the market is very nervous after the sharp selloff, and there are plenty of people out there globally who have a stake in short yen positions." Adds while fundametals such as low Japan interest rates vs high NZ rates should limit downside, there's still not enough "power to buy the dip" so any Kiwi gains will attract good selling for now. "We could possibly consolidate around here, but the best you could hope for is a modest bounce and the risk is that we'd be substantially lower again tomorrow." Pair last 82.37 vs 85.30 NZ close yesterday.

 




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