Forex Forum Archive for 03/1/2007

Philadelphia Caba 23:52 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
not bad jap data and yen getting sold..(?)

van Gecko 23:48 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Yenophobes getting good levels to reload.. patient Europhiles should get their turn soon.. lotsa bagholders blood on the line..
cheerios to the Golden Pig!

hk ab 23:44 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
trailed short dlr/jpy hit, wait new level to reshort. Maybe as bkk suggested 119.

Syd 23:42 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan all household spending in January rises 0.6% on year after 1.9% fall in December; this beats expectations for 0.3% fall as shown by Dow Jones/Nikkei poll. Data hint at recovery in consumption, which would help economic growth; BOJ carefully watching consumer spending, prices as key factors in deciding timing of next rate hike

Syd 23:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan Jan All Household Spending +0.6% On Yr
Japan Jan Propensity To Consume 87.8%, 0.0 Pts On Yr
Tokyo Feb Core CPI Flat On Year; Mkt Expected +0.1%
Japan Jan Overall CPI Flat On Yr; -0.2% On Mo
Tokyo Feb Overall CPI Flat On Yr; -0.4% On Mo

hk ab 23:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
+ 0.6 vs -0.3 forecast on household consumption......

hk ab 23:30 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Any one got jap data?

UK Alex 23:16 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
The stock market rout was preceded
by classic warning signals that now
appear obvious in hindsight - unusually
low volatility, the longevity of the recent
rally, bullish consensus, record margin
debt and a stretch for returns in risky
markets.
One indicator that has garnered less
attention but may deserve a prominent
role in contrarians’ diagnostic toolbox is
the sheer level of market turnover. Very
high volume and very low volatility can
exist simultaneously since a large number
of trades doesn’t preclude a slow,
steady rise or fall in prices. Extremely
active stock trading relative to the size of
an economy can mean a number of
things - the entry of new participants, an
abundance of liquidity or perhaps just a
“fast-money” ethos.
“Any spike in turnover tells you
there’s a surge in traders versus
investors,” said Alan Newman, editor of
stock market newsletter Crosscurrents.
“That means the market has entered a
very speculative phase and value is not a
factor.”
Newman points to prior periods of
very high turnover, with ominous peaks
in 1929 and 2000, two of the most
painful years in stock market history.
Turnover on the three major U.S. stock
exchanges last year was $35.4 trillion,
equal to about 206% of market capitalization
and just shy of the all-time record
of 220% set in 1929, the year of the
crash. As a percentage of gross domestic
product, stock turnover was 263%,
short of the record 328% seen in 2000
during the height of the tech boom but
well above the average of about 40%
seen from 1930-1995, said Newman.

Syd 23:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Marc Faber Says Global Stock Markets May Fall Further
Faber expects the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to decline as much as 15 percent followed by a cut in interest rates in the U.S. as the economy deteriorates later this year. The decline in the U.S. economy may lead to a ``big selloff in equity markets around the world,'' said Faber, who oversees $300 million in assets at Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. LINK

Syd 23:04 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY has downside bias in Asia with 1st target of 117.35, then 117 for global day - break of which would open way to 116, says Okasan Securities senior dealer Tsutomu Soma. "Everything is up to stocks prices now"; adds if bourses - including Japan, Shanghai, or NY - perform badly again in global day, would lead to selling USD amid view players to unwind carry trade positions. Pair last holding around 117.59 on EBS, near NY close. Adds Japan Jan CPI, household spending, jobless data due at 2330 GMT unlikely to have major impact as focus is on Nikkei and anyway BOJ's next move on rates widely expected to be some time away

Gen dk 22:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Global-view 22:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
indianapolis 22:24 , please abide by our simple posting rules

Philadelphia Caba 22:28 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
19:30 est

Syd 22:24 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Northwest Ruling Could Chill Hedge-Fund
Chapter 11 ActivityGropper's ruling to enforce Bankruptcy Rule 2019, which says parties in a Chapter 11 case acting as a group must disclose certain information about their holdings, requires the 13 investment funds on the official committee to make public information about trading patterns, holdings and pricing hedge funds have labored for decades to keep secret.
"This opinion by Judge Gropper has to send shockwaves through the hedge-fund community," said Kirkland & Ellis bankruptcy partner Jonathan Henes.

Atlanta South 22:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Any views on the current EUR/USD move? Its seems this pair
is finally defining its direction......@ least for the short term.
For me I'm short from 3202, but seeing 3155-60 as a tp
zone according to my short term model. Gt to all.

Philadelphia Caba 22:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
ACC, Syd & Peat, guys, thnx for yest's comments on RBNZ. Appreciate it! gt/gl!

Syd 22:12 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Carry trading unwinding will continue to weigh on AUD/USD into early Asian trading while there's potential for losses to deepen if today's 4Q current account data shows a wider-than-expected result, says John Kyriakopoulos, currency strategist at National Australia Bank. Economists expectations are for Australia's current account to widen to A$14.00 billion in 4Q from A$12.08 billion in 3Q; imports seen strong though export side of ledger needs to improve; possibility for exports to reverse towards the end of 2007. "Late this year we'd be looking for net export contributions to be consistently positive at around 0.3% per quarter," said Michael Workman, senior economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia

GVI john 22:11 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3195	117.58	1.2205	1.9601	1.1716	0.7853	155.15
High	1.3241	118.87	1.2237	1.9652	1.1749	0.7888	157.28
Low	1.3155	116.96	1.2147	1.9555	1.1674	0.7841	154.55
							
Simple mva	basis =>	03/01/2007					
5 day 	1.3202	119.11	1.2239	1.9626	1.1652	0.7893	157.26
10 day	1.3170	119.68	1.2299	1.9579	1.1644	0.7888	157.63
20 day 	1.3094	120.23	1.2373	1.9580	1.1707	0.7836	157.43
50 day 	1.3047	120.19	1.2385	1.9584	1.1721	0.7831	156.81
100 day	1.2995	118.82	1.2347	1.9410	1.1558	0.7789	154.41
200 day	1.2856	117.46	1.2364	1.9042	1.1379	0.7655	151.02

CAIRO AG 22:11 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
JP// that was nice of you...

Best of luck for your trades

Mtl JP 22:04 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
re oil man, from GVI, fwiw:
Cannes Oil man 15:37 GMT February 28, 2007
Good i closed the $/CAD short's , have to say , i only closed cause i saw that guy on FF talking about extreme confidence in short $cad , and good accuracy..It seems (I've been watching what he posts) , when he is over confident, it goes against him..Saved me 70 pips.

London AL 22:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
oil man had a beating in usdcad too a day back i think.

SINGAPORE GFX 21:51 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
TEH,

LOL, he will reappear when it starts going his way.

Sydney ACC 21:51 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
teh 21:47 GMT March 1, 2007
Ha! But he hedged his bets he had a long GBP/NZD targeting 2.8800. The low on that late February was 2.76 now at 2.82.

USA BAY 21:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
INDIANAPOLIS IN

source dealer

[USD/CAD] has stopped just shy of the large build of stops lurking above 1.17...


[USD/CAD] has stopped just shy of the large build of stops lurking above 1.1750 as Cad/Yen recovers nicely back above 100.00. The anti-carry trade activity of the day seems to have been stretched to its limits - at least in the short term, and selling strength in the headline could now hold some decent value. Oil continues to hold strong around Usd 62.0brl which should encourage some buying of the Loonie into any dips. Despite today's data blip (much worse than expected Canadian c/a data), releases out of Canada have been on the firm side lately, thus selling ahead of the key 1.1769 tech resistance is suggested for now.

Lahore FM 21:48 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
welcome here IN.happy trades!

teh 21:47 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
no show from oil man now his nzd/usd and usd/jpy predictions going in opposite direction

ABHA FXS 21:46 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Long eurusd 1.3181 stop 1.3150 T 1.3301

Syd 21:42 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Australian dollar moves lower against the US dollar overnight with Thursday's stronger-than-expected US ISM manufacturing giving the US currency a lift against most major crosses. AUD/USD begins Friday's session at 0.7855 down from 0.7862 late Thursday with further carry trade unwinding also weighing on prices; more pressure expected from carry trade dumping to drag on AUD/USD with any fall below 0.7810 likely to prompt accelerated selling. Local data due today includes January retail sales and 4Q current account numbers.

jkt-aye 21:32 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 17:57 GMT March 1, 2007
CT Cris 17:23 ... agree.
my magnetic level at 1.9531 (15M).
plan to short it from 1.9599 sl 1.9619 tgt 1.9531.
hope it works.
====================================

close half position, lower stop to 1.9609 ... then zzzzz

ABHA FXS 21:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Long gbpusd 1.9585 stop 1.9550 T 1.9731

Syd 21:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Buffett: 'Close To Eliminating Direct Forex Position'

RIC fxq 21:28 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
A CNBC clip of Hilary Clinton on CNBC today - protectionism, perhpas even isolationism seems to be on the (D)emocrat party agenda:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=193929379

USA BAY 21:25 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

LOL, JJ is that some code language

Lahore FM 21:21 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:16 GMT March 1, 2007
LAHORE FM 3 FOR 3!!!!

lolzzz...what do you mean JJ?i have got just the 2.where did 3 for 3 come from?

LKWD JJ 21:16 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM 3 FOR 3!!!!

Lahore FM 21:11 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
many thanx Alex.

Patra alex 21:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM,

Try this

http://orion.dnsprotect.com/~thenuts/Elliott%20Wave_/

Lahore FM 20:56 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 20:47 GMT March 1, 2007
ABHA thanx for the file but the address does not work.

ABHA FXS 20:47 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hi,all

try this wavecalce zip for forex..

http://216.180.237.250/~thenuts/Elli.../wavecalce.zip

fxs

Syd 20:02 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
NZD/JPY Fall Could Extend To 77.40 This Mo - ANZ
NZD/JPY headed further down as uridashi, eurokiwi issuance over past 48 hours not enough to slow pair's fall, says ANZ Bank; "yesterday's slight corrective move has been obliterated as markets now look to target a move potentially as deep as 77.40 during this month." Says price action, volatility in global markets past few days show diminishing appetite for risk, causing renewed bout of carry trade unwinding. Pair last 81.54, fell to 2.5 month low of 81.01 offshore - has dropped as much as 5.5% this week.

SINGAPORE GFX 19:42 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Good call on short usd/jpy yesterday. Ty

USA BAY 19:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SOURCE DEALER


[USD/JPY] has staged a modest pullback after earlier breaking below the 200 da...
[USD/JPY] has staged a modest pullback after earlier breaking below the 200 day m.a. at 117.39. The Jpy crosses have also seen some stabilisation; stops tripped under 154.60 in Eur/Jpy prompting some profit taking and holding the cross shy of stops under 154.25 (100 day m.a. at 154.32). Attention now focusses on both the raft of Japanese data (18.33GMT) out at 23.30GMT and the performance of Asia's stock markets. Should more falls pan out in the latter, funds are again likely to pull out funds and reverse the short-Jpy leg of the funding play. Bids are in place at 117.00 in the pair, though a sustained push beyond 117.39 would probably imply another sizeable downmove is in prospect.

Syd 19:27 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Carry trades have been unwinding like bandages on a mummy this week, leaving the dollar in tatters versus the yen.

But as long as the pullback remains confined to mostly speculative investors and the bulk of other carry traders - institutions and private Japanese investors - hold firm in their positions, then recent events may not inflict much more damage on the greenback.

"The major chunk of carry trades are coming from Japanese investors, and they're not going to immediately run for the hills over this," said John McCarthy, director of foreign exchange at ING Capital Markets.

That's because a profit can still be made by borrowing a low-yielding currency, like the yen, and "carrying" it - or using it to buy currency that pays more interest, like the dollar or sterling.

Still, there is a breaking point for all investors, speculative and long-term, and if the yen were to continue to climb significantly versus the dollar and the euro, then carry trade unwinding may turn more universal.

The dollar, McCarthy said, would have to dip to the sub-Y110s before the majority of institutions and individual Japanese investors began pulling their carry trades. Thursday afternoon, the yen stood at Y117.49.

Some analysts say levels around Y110 are not out of the question. The Japanese economy is likely to stage a rebound this year, which could encourage more capital inflow and less outflow, and give a carry trade-harming boost to the yen.
Yen Strength Looms
But others argue that Japan's economy could grow at a rapid pace this year amid stronger export performances, which could improve consumer and business confidence and may lead to more aggressive rate hikes by the BOJ, despite the bank's suggestions that such increases would be gradual.

Analysts at ABN Amro Bank said in a research note that they would not be surprised to see Japanese economic data begin to out-perform other majors and Asian countries, which could lead to further yen gains.These same analysts last Friday warned of a carry trade unwind similar to what happened this week, saying "the carry trade, while justified on various grounds, has become excessive and has blinded the market to a number of fresh developments that point to upside risks in the yen."

PAR 19:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Expect some Kampo and BOJ intervention to prevent the USD from falling to quickly. Carry trades already recovering before japanese market opens .

USA BAY 19:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SOURCE DEALER

[FOCUS COMMENT: JPY STABILISES AHEAD OF JAPANESE DATA] The Jpy's advance ha...
[FOCUS COMMENT: JPY STABILISES AHEAD OF JAPANESE DATA] The Jpy's advance has slowed as the market looks towards a raft of Japanese CPI, spending and employment data due at 23.30GMT. However, comments from the BoJ's Watanabe suggest only much softer than f/c CPI will hold the Bank back from looking for the next opportunity to raise rates.

USA BAY 19:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

Never used this method, interesting. Will experiment with it.
learnt something new again. Thanks. gt/gl

jkt-aye 18:55 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
BAY, pls see my post below.

PAR 18:55 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Despite all positive spin by Bernanke and Paulson about the US economy, bias remains extremely usd negatif by the US banks and brokers .

jkt-aye 18:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hello BAY, hope everything fine with you. good trades

USA BAY 18:47 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

Just for learning purpose how do you use your magnetic price. If you don't mind could you ilustrate it with an example. Thanks

jkt-aye 18:43 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
GFX ... fyi i use my level for price target/projection, not an entry signal nor expected range.
that's why i call it magnetic ... not magic LOL.

on nzdjpy front i get 82.45 (30M), 80.05 (1H), 79.95 (4H).

USA BAY 18:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,


YEP, you are right ,gbp/usd short below 1.9600, target 1.9530 and 1.9515. gt/gl

UK Alex 18:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Looks like Euro was an option play again... hehe.

SINGAPORE GFX 18:21 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

If you have the time, could you kindly give the magnetic price range for nzd/jpy. thanks a mil

SINGAPORE GFX 18:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

Thanks a lot Aye. It is helpful. Thanks again. gt/gl

jkt-aye 18:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Singapore GFX 16:50
my magnetic level (1H) 93.70 - 92.20 - 91.45.
hope it helps. gtgl

jkt-aye 17:57 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:23 ... agree.
my magnetic level at 1.9531 (15M).
plan to short it from 1.9599 sl 1.9619 tgt 1.9531.
hope it works.

hk ab 17:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
guys, look at XAG!!!!

Dlrjpy good show tomorrow.

manchester 17:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
any opinions on gold at 663 level?

Auckland peat 17:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 23:50 GMT February 28, 2007
Antipodeans will fall is my guess but I'm not playing it.

qwerty - you convinced me otherwise... cheers for that.

Van jv 17:38 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd //MT move will be revealed by the daily triangle...

hk ab 17:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
to make sleeping more healthy, close the rest here and see you all later..... put a limit to go long at 117.05.

CT Cris 17:23 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
=====
up till 19610 then decline to 19530.

dc CB 17:21 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
imho. It's equities and the Yen. And has been that way since tuesday. Put up an hourly S&P and a USD/JPY chart. If NY fails today and tomorrow, look out Monday.

Bangkok bkk 17:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
IMHO...

I feel Euro is going to collapse next week. And trade below 1.3080 again soon. Follow the queen...GBP is going to trade below 1.9450 soon.

hk ab 17:17 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Will he dare to play fire and say Jap is manipulating the yen?

RIC fxq 17:11 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Paulson on the wires now - China mentioned

hk ab 17:10 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
exited 1/2 from 118.80 @ 117.41. leaving the other half traile.d

hk ab 17:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
bkk//my way of seeing dlr/jpy is similar except that 115 before 120 then real reverse.

london phil 17:03 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
just looking at a eur/jpy daily chart trend still nicely intact and looks good for more gains below 150 then it starts to loook scary so all the talk of carry unwind is a little premature just a healthy daily chart correction so far

Bangkok bkk 17:03 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
IMHO....

USD/JPY may consolidate between 117.00 - 118.50 in the next 3-5 days... unlikely to see 119.50+ next week. Because of the JPY cross very bearish.

However, this pair will be able to test 120 JPY one more time before the long-term trend reversal.

RIC fxq 17:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:54 GMT

got it, tks.

there was a bit of a feeding frenzy on CNBC about 0700 ET with some heated remarks re: Gspan being out of line or not.

hk ab 16:59 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
20-30 trillion is how many times of daily transaction in dlr/jpy front? anyone?

UK Alex 16:54 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:48 GMT March 1, 2007
Just talk doing the rounds in the City. A few people getting a bit hot under the collar down there.

SINGAPORE GFX 16:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, can you please give the next target for aud/jpy. thanks sir

RIC fxq 16:48 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:47 GMT

not surprising - source pls?

UK Alex 16:47 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke is furious with Greenspan, but why did the bubble burst in China, surely there is more than meets the eye to this.

hk ab 16:43 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
To make 119 viable, i think the japs must stop selling all yen crosses early in the morning LOL.

hk ab 16:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
It's possible eur is shedding strength to chf and jpy here....

madrid mm 16:32 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 16:20 GMT March 1, 2007

everyday 8-) it is one of my rule !!!!

Lahore FM 16:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 16:29 GMT March 1, 2007
yes favour consolidation onset.with not much room higher than 119.20 and not much lower than 117.20 for the time being.

USA BAY 16:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,,

I think gbp/jpy will still drop further, same for usd/jpy. as for usd/jpy, it may rise to 118.1 and drop again.

Philadelphia Caba 16:28 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
added eur/chf short here, one more order waiting at 1.6015

Lahore FM 16:25 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 04:43 GMT February 23, 2007
BAY-correction** here.

Lahore FM 04:18 GMT February 23, 2007
the great jpy unwind can disrupt quite a few things in fx though.gbpjpy down to 229.20** again for example.

usdjpy can go down Srini but isn't.still think progress higher is going to be difficult.

out till laterz.

Lahore FM 14:16 GMT February 23, 2007
hk ab 13:48 GMT February 23, 2007
gbpjpy,229.20 is more like it.

---------------
this might be it for jpy crosses and usdjpy.

hk ab 16:25 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
This gbp is crazy but eur is boring.
So, dlr/jpy and dlr/chf are better.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:24 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
nyc ny 16:20 GMT - I am bias on the downside for both EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

HK Kevin 16:21 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:11 GMT March 1, very good and timely short. EUR and GBP both approach my important supports 1.3150 and 1.9550

nyc ny 16:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Dr Qindex , what's your view on Eur/$ and Eur/JPY ? short and medium term ? Thnx.

USA BAY 16:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
MADRID MM,

Any more "expect the unexpected" in store for us next week.

madrid mm 16:19 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, said payments were late at the end of last year on almost 20 percent of the subprime loans it tracks for other companies and investors who own them.

madrid mm 16:17 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
we should be grateful for the last few days with all this action.
EURO-usd took a little while to make up its mind though today

Hong Kong Qindex 16:14 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : the following was the targeting level for the month of February. It was almost one day late.

Hong Kong Qindex 21:08 GMT February 27, 2007
USD/JPY : The next downside target is 117.04 - 117.12*.

hk ab 16:11 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
I shorted form 118.80 this a.m., now figuring out how to handle it. Prime idea is partial profit taking. when 117.41 (bid) prints.

hk ab 16:10 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
The turning point is right at here 117.41 (ask)

USA BAY 16:09 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
HK ab,

Are you still long usd/jpy?

________________________________________________

Source dealer

There is talk of a LHS fix for 16.00GMT in [EUR/USD], with an eastern Eu...
There is talk of a LHS fix for 16.00GMT in [EUR/USD], with an eastern European central bank said to currently be a seller. CB bids are said to be in place at 1.3160.

hk ab 16:09 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
thanks for your never ending kindness, dr. Q

Hong Kong Qindex 16:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:06 GMT - USD/JPY : I tell you later when the market is trading below 116.65.

NY RP 16:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
It wasnt that long ago that the Fed was saying that at its private meetings that it has taken steps to prevent a financial crisis. I wonder if the step they are talking about is borrowing printing presses from Minute Man Press? Its hard to tell the crowd to go back into a burning building even if you are handing out crisp $100 bills.

hk ab 16:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Dr.Q, how about dlr/jpy? can you see any target yet?

USA BAY 16:04 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

Thanks Dr Q, I sort of thought thats what you meant just wanted to confirm. Thanks again

Hong Kong Qindex 16:04 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY : It is not a good sign when the market closes below 229.80 in the New York session.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:02 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 15:56 GMT - I don't think it is the end of decline. I am watching the momentum of both USD/JPY and Gbp/JPY and it is too early to set the targeting point for GBP/JPY at this moment.

hk ab 16:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
MOF should really not threat the carry traders.....
this create "instability:.......

USA BAY 15:56 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, sorry I don't get you when you say "I doubt it" meaning you doubt it will touch 225 or you doubt this is the end of the decline. If you dont mind could you please clarify . thanks

hk ab 15:55 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
bkk//very good source.

Lahore FM 15:54 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 15:44 GMT March 1, 2007
quite agree there.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 15:46 GMT - I doubt it very much. It is because it hit 229.80 in March.

AZUSA 4X-ed 15:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, thank you kindly! Noticed that it seems to march to its own drumbeat; could be wrong in that assessment!?

tokyo ginko 15:47 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
'invisible' bid at 1750 for nasdaq NQ

tokyo ginko 15:46 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
'invisible' bid at 1750 for nasdaq NQ

USA BAY 15:46 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG QINDEX,

DR Q, Do you think we have reached the end of decline for gbp/jpy or 225 could be the next target. thanks a lot

RIC fxq 15:44 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
more to the point, why are so many so bullish on GBP and EUR?

there is a definite whiff of "contagion" in the mkt now

Lahore FM 15:44 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
correction*

into a weekend* almost when usd was sold throughout last two weeks.

Lahore FM 15:43 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
prices paid at 59.0 against 53.0 and emplyment and manufactring both up is pretty good for usd heading into a week when usd was sold throughout last two weeks.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4X-ed 15:33 GMT - I don't have any projected numbers for HKD. I would imagine it is going to be under pressure for the next few trading days.

Philadelphia Caba 15:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:39 GMT
FM, why are you so bullish on $?

Bangkok bkk 15:39 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:35 GMT

ab// yep, that's because Cable and Euro correction lower as expected, all EUR and GBP long position by those big... since 2 weeks ago have been closed out already..

Lahore FM 15:39 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
1.2360 by late ny won't be surprising for usdchf.

UK Alex 15:38 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
BIS picking up some cheap Euros at the moment.

hk ab 15:35 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
bkk//do you see yen crosses continue the slide while dlr/jpy firms?

Bangkok bkk 15:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:26 GMT

na.. you know who don't you?

I guess, we are going to see USD/JPY trading above 119.50 or even 120JPY one more time before the real long-term collapse...IMVHO

AZUSA 4X-ed 15:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Q, any thoughts/opinions you could offer on HKD?

Charlotte TH 15:30 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
long usd/jpy at 117.49.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:30 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.9639.

Mla evan 15:30 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Dow, -71.14

hk ab 15:26 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
bkk//BOJ?

Mla Evan 15:26 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
-123.60, up 85.48 from the low.

NYC Ed 15:24 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Anyone watching Cable, can you Pro's give me a read on this CHOP move PLEASE !!!

madrid mm 15:23 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 15:18 GMT March 1, 2007
bloomberg showing djia up 52 from yesterday?

not updated yer
check www.nasdaq.com

Bangkok bkk 15:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:16 GMT

someone can "sneak and invisible" in to the market... sometime

LKWD JJ 15:18 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
bloomberg showing djia up 52 from yesterday?

Bangkok bkk 15:17 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:16 GMT March 1, 2007
bkk//may I ask your reason to long dlr/jpy?

ab// someone prefer USD rather than JPY .... especially around this current value....

hk ab 15:16 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
gold, dlr/jpy, commod cur/USD, all in good correlation.. euro looks like a sidelineder.

UK Alex 15:14 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 15:11 GMT March 1, 2007
My guess is that bears have longer memories than bulls.

LKWD JJ 15:14 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
usd getting a lift but why?

Rio de Janeiro F 15:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
I´m interest in invest on this forex broker, anyone from Brazil or other country can help me how to do and something like how my money will be back to my country (via Bank, credicard etc...)? Thanks in advance...

hk ab 15:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
anyone long 117.70?

tokyo ginko 15:11 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
great tussle between the bears and bulls today, my guess is that the bull will pierce the bear with its horns.

NY RP 15:09 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
ooops forgot to say.....$750 and then $850 before champagne at levels most will be shocked to see. Could be a shake out but certainly physical buyers lined up like kids in a candy store.

tokyo ginko 15:09 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
seems to me the only consistent pair today is usd/cad

NY RP 15:07 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Say it again...STAGFLATION........most visible will be Gold.
Sit back and enjoy.

NYC Ed 15:04 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Guys,,,, I thought someone would give me a heads up on Cable

madrid mm 15:04 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
* Treasuries Gain as Investors Seek Refuge From Falling Global Stock Markets

* Personal Spending, Incomes, Inflation Gauge in U.S. All Exceed Forecasts

bloomberg

madrid mm 15:02 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
some people must be really upset and some maybe sweating hard.....8-)

Bahrain Bahrain1 15:02 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
vely vely strong

UK Alex 15:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Stocks are putting on an amazing performance today.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:56 GMT - It is better than 60% for the remaining period of this week.

Bahrain Bahrain1 15:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
ism MANUF. 52.8

hk ab 15:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
good cleaning on dlr/jpy spects.

madrid mm 14:59 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
this is scalping time ...in---out----in ---out....

Mtl JP 14:56 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Qindex 14:47 / what odds of that happeneing ?

slv sam 14:51 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
I doubt the usdjpy will close under 117 tonight!GT

Hong Kong Qindex 14:47 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY : It is not a good sign if the market closes below 116.65 in the New York session.

UK Alex 14:42 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:31 GMT March 1, 2007
We heard that options protection is very thin and there will be little or no defensive dollar buying.

Hong Kong Qindex 14:39 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : the following is still valid :-

Hong Kong Qindex 03:24 GMT February 25, 2007
AUD/USD : A consolidating range is located at [0.7836] - [0.7903]. The market momentum is strong when it is trading above 0.7903. A projected supporting level is located at 0.7800 - 0.7809.

hk ab 14:38 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy 115.6 in cards by Fri.

Philadelphia Caba 14:37 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
you can't compare eur/chf with eur/jpy ... only common thing thay have (or had) is established 'funding currency' term - jpy and chf...

hk ab 14:36 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
major broad will dive again today. A hard one seems.

hk ab 14:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
that gold moves with dlr/jpy in perfect tandem.... let's wait till the relationship breaks.

melbourne DC 14:32 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy 117.30 , yield down giving push.

lugano fc 14:32 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
manchester 14:22 GMT March 1, 2007


2. explanation could be that carry trades unwind from jpy is going to chf...

hk ab 14:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
any bus stop between 116-117?

hk ab 14:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
people seems still underestimate the power from e/j and g/j......

Cali mmm 14:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore, good morning/afternoon. Can you share your short term target for USD/JPY ? TKS!

slv sam 14:30 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
I can see usdjpy at 115.30 by Monday Asia!GT

The Netherlands Purk 14:30 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
manchester 14:22 GMT March 1, 2007

I trust that you still own the shorts on eur/chf, that is what wasmeant with free ride. You as soccer fan should know that.

As for the e/j keep an eye on 152.80, if that is gone, the e/j is due for more to come.

lugano fc 14:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
manchester 14:22 GMT March 1, 2007


jpy strong....also against chf the jpy loosed some 17 % in recent months....

melbourne DC 14:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 14:23 GMT March 1, 2007
when he came out saying that abt 4-5 hours ago .. just couldn't believe how nut one be. but nuts bring lunch :))

hk ab 14:25 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
MOF is playing fire.......

Philadelphia Caba 14:23 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
MOF"s Watanabe Says This Week Is Not True Carry Unwind MOF"s Watanabe says FX moves this week not unwinding of JPY carry as true unwinding will be bigger. He added that the size of JPY carry trade maybe between 10-20 trillion but there are no statistics available. ifr

madrid mm 14:22 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 14:15 GMT March 1, 2007

8-)

manchester 14:22 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
can anyone suggest why eur/jpy has dropped significantly from its highs but eur/chf dropping at a snails pace?

lugano fc 14:22 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
think that time is coming for the usd collapse....

dc CB 14:21 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
looks like another day of trading USD/JY by looking at the Tick and Trin readings.

Atlanta WW 14:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
support on usd/jyn 117. area

Gen dk 14:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 14:19 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
roller coaster engine restarts....

hk ab 14:18 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
anyone suggest a strong support for dlr/jpy shorts exit?

hk ab 14:16 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
bkk//may I ask your reason to long dlr/jpy?

RIC fxq 14:15 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:12 GMT

not at all, as I have said many times before GBP and EUR benefited greatly from JPY and CHF weakness but neither has reacted on the unwind.

hk ab 14:14 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR//just like what mm said, if eur makes no tandem movement, what could be a better "excuse" rather than yen crosses unwind?

Lahore FM 14:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
London C 14:10 GMT March 1, 2007
i am not short euro though view is short.eurusd is last of the stalwarts in the dollar bear camp.think it is pretty tired.

madrid mm 14:12 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
it feels funny that this EURO-usd is not making big moves at the moment.....
Am i the only 1 to think that way ?

hk ab 14:11 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
When general mkt turns, those who bought DOWJ, gold, HSI, cars, homes, with cheap yen must consider exit doors.....

madrid mm 14:10 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
KL, ref my previous post. Last comment was a general comment and not meant for you. Apologies 4 confusion 8-)

London C 14:10 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:08 ..hello FM ..nice to see you about again ..I'm gathering your short euro/usd???

Lahore FM 14:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Manchester SA 14:05 GMT March 1, 2007
it is up from here on the day and week.

madrid mm 14:07 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
KL KL 14:01 GMT March 1, 2007

yes fear n greed.

If you're not sure, don't trade.

PAR 14:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
More general dollar weakness than carry trades unwinding .

NYC Ed 14:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
anyone...in spite of todays #'s Cable LONG ???

Lahore FM 14:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 14:03 GMT March 1, 2007
ACC sir,guess still the call is good.also we might see a low lower tha 0.6930 later.

Manchester SA 14:05 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Well done Andorra Qwerty for your calls.

Anyone have any views on the USD/CHF direction for the rest of the day?

Sydney ACC 14:03 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty 13:58 GMT March 1, 2007
Andorra Qwerty 10:10 GMT March 1, 2007
Alright, here's another 80-pip trade, SHORT NZD/USD @ 0.7010 (current level), target 0.6930. I'll be back when target prints. Don't ask, just trade. GT GL.

****

Well done for those who took it. GT GL. I cashed some good pips on ths slow one.

Bit early mate! Lowest offer 0.6940, ten pips away, nice call though.

SGP LR 14:03 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty - Good Call n TQ for sharing. Cheers

KL KL 14:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Dow futures falling 100 points before open....

I think Fear is on now....make sure stop loss, stop loss in place....must have strong mind set day

Lahore FM 14:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty 13:58 GMT March 1, 2007
neat call!

madrid mm 14:01 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty 13:58 GMT March 1, 2007

yes sir !! I did not take it but credit ´s due when credit´s due
hat´s off 2 u

hk ab 14:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
bkk, got your view.

Lahore FM 14:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
stopped on 1.6123 long eurchf at 1.6090.

London C 14:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty ..good call

hk ab 13:59 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
bkk//your view on dlr/jpy appreciated.

Andorra Qwerty 13:58 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty 10:10 GMT March 1, 2007
Alright, here's another 80-pip trade, SHORT NZD/USD @ 0.7010 (current level), target 0.6930. I'll be back when target prints. Don't ask, just trade. GT GL.

****

Well done for those who took it. GT GL. I cashed some good pips on ths slow one.

London Misha 13:58 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Cbj Jake - thanks for your comments - I just don't want to end in the slammer!

madrid mm 13:58 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
in fact , the more rumours, the more volatile, isn´t it ? good for market players !!!!

madrid mm 13:56 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
fwiw
RBOB Gasoline Financial Futures (Penultimate)
Trading Unit
42,000 U.S. gallons (1,000 barrels)
Price Quotation
U.S. dollars and cents per gallon
Minimum Price Fluctuation
$0.0001 (0.01¢) per gallon.
http://www.nymex.com/RT1_spec.aspx

Alex i agree with you regarding the charts. The trick is to know how to interprete them...As for me I am a beginner !!!8-)

Bangkok bkk 13:53 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:48 GMT March 1, 2007
Can you guess who is supporting USD/Yen?


I guess some AS players.... Esp. from J.

Just bought usd/jpy again @ 117.60 let's see

UK Alex 13:52 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:51 GMT March 1, 2007
The charts don't lie, China is stepping in now.

madrid mm 13:52 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:48 GMT March 1, 2007

PAR and me with my small a/c LOL

madrid mm 13:51 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
rumour, rumour.... we know they abound. The market is filled with them everyday, more so when we have big moves....
At the end of the day, we should always expect the unexpected .
8-)

Cbj Jake 13:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
London,Misha - My friend, you sound naive. Rumors are the game everyone wants to be privy to and pay much for - if only to raid their inventory. Let us l have our smile.

UK Alex 13:48 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Can you guess who is supporting USD/Yen?

hk ab 13:48 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Bob//want to test your luck to long dl/rjpy 117.70?

Philadelphia Caba 13:43 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
in eur/chf short again at market

London Misha 13:43 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
I don't think it appropriate to mention names until it gets in the public realm. Describing a mortgage based lender should be enough as we all have enough on our plate today.

hk ab 13:43 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
there's a cap for every yen cross now.

UK Alex 13:42 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Another Amaranth, this time RBOB futures.

hk ab 13:42 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
fwiw, my roller coaster begins with the important support mentioned.

hk ab 13:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Bob....the day is long, while end of March is approaching.....

hk ab 13:40 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Alex, more elaboration on your someone pls.

UK Alex 13:38 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:33 GMT March 1, 2007
At least the personal savings rate has improved.

St. Annaland Bob 13:36 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:31 GMT March 1, 2007
enjoy roller coaster.

will you ride USDJPY from 117.30 ??? tia

PAR 13:34 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Weak US economic numbers just not confirming Bernanke s positive statements on the US economy. Bernanke s opinion of low infaltion and goldilocks more and more looks like " wishfull thinking" , and thats being reflected by the Dow, US bonds and a falling dollar ..

hk ab 13:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
RP//Some good bargains can be seen before end of Mar, imvho. re: gold

RIC fxq 13:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Alex -

check out the PCE data - rather inflationary #'s today - no rate cut coming imo

hk ab 13:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
enjoy roller coaster.

UK Alex 13:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:19 GMT March 1, 2007
Recession in manufacturing even.

Antwerp ML 13:22 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
euro looks weakish to me...
I think euro to spike somewhat higher 3250 maybe and then sell off this end of week towards 31503170
good luck
gold - short until 650 min , risk 640

Charlotte TH 13:21 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Charlotte TH 01:20 GMT February 28, 2007
Charlotte TH 21:04 GMT February 27, 2007
Longing eurjpy here at 156.20, usdjpy here at 118, gbpjpy at 231.44.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
closing eurjpy and gbpjpy at 156.80 and 232.75. stop on usdjpy moved to 118.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stopped out of usdjpy for no gain.

PAR 13:19 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY is coming from 90.00 . So if any unwinding of carry trades has been going on it has been minimal and nothing to worry about for the big UK and US players . Subprime borrowers is another story . Recession in the US car and housing sector started sometime ago .

RIC fxq 13:19 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 13:03 GMT

indeed, this is like a sword of Damocles over many pairs, ultimately GBP and EUR will also get the chop I feel

AZUSA 4X-ed 13:17 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Helmets and seatblets are mandatory for today!

UK Alex 13:09 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:02 GMT March 1, 2007
It's true, there is a rumour that someone is in trouble.

London Misha 13:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Jay - did you get my email?

hk ab 13:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:12 GMT February 28, 2007
118.80 support was too crucial to be broken yesterday.

Maybe a spike to there and avalance continues.

Sydney ACC 13:03 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 12:41 GMT March 1, 2007
Kiwi the darling of the carrytrade has fallen from 0.7031 to 0.6940 over the last five hours.

hk ab 13:02 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
I think repatriation just starts, not over.

GVI Jay 13:02 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Misha, please contact me

Hong Kong Ahe 13:02 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY going to test 154.50 and 153 level. GLGT

London Misha 13:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Rumour I hear going around that a prime lender or similar financial institution in the U.S. has gone belly up.

That's causing the drop in stock prices - allegedly

GVI john 13:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3234	118.40	1.2187	1.9638	1.1686	0.7880	156.71
High	1.3242	118.84	1.2244	1.9641	1.1736	0.7894	156.93
Low	1.3181	117.93	1.2173	1.9516	1.1663	0.7858	155.90
							
Simple mva	basis =>	02/28/2007					
5 day 	1.3188	119.90	1.2275	1.9618	1.1630	0.7900	158.13
10 day	1.3165	119.84	1.2313	1.9570	1.1635	0.7887	157.78
20 day 	1.3085	120.39	1.2385	1.9583	1.1710	0.7830	157.53
50 day 	1.3046	120.22	1.2385	1.9584	1.1718	0.7832	156.83
100 day	1.2988	118.84	1.2352	1.9400	1.1554	0.7786	154.35
200 day	1.2853	117.43	1.2364	1.9037	1.1376	0.7654	150.96

RIC fxq 12:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
4cast:

Thu Mar 1 07:02:00 2007(EST)

* 01 Mar 07: 12:02(LDN) - FX NOW! USD/JPY, EUR/JPY Flows - Rato getting carried away on the carry trade

The IMF's Rato is the latest to point out the obvious on the dangers of the carry trade, but we expect that he too is preaching to a market that is already fully aware. Naturally, the fast money is jumping on his comments to push the JPY a littel firmer, but unless the authorities want some 'sharp FX moves' (surely not?), we expect there are still plenty of patient JPY shorts out there. PB

madrid mm 12:31 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Eurozone inflation up 1.8 per cent in February
By Ivar Simensen in Frankfurt
ft.com-Last updated: March 1 2007 11:30

Inflation in the eurozone grew and the region’s manufacturing sector expanded in February by less than expected, though still enough to support expectations that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates further.

Hong Kong Dom 12:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Lohore FM, May I share your view on USD/CAD. Thanks.

Sydney ACC 12:24 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 11:52 GMT March 1, 2007
Sorry I was referring to the unexpected increases.

UK Alex 11:52 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 11:49 GMT March 1, 2007
75bp total rate hike since August, don't forget November.

Auckland trotter 11:52 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
The projected top line of the pennant (ref: my previous posts) appears to be holding on the 5min 12hr chart as well.

Level to break for more up appears as:

I7 pivot on the 1wk 3yr chart at 1.3219
50% fib on the 1hr 5day chart around 1.3220

Bed time for me with a stagnant EUR/USD market at the moment, so will set my levels on various trades as short term charts I have as giving some down indication at the moment, therefore I see some uncertainty in the EUR/USD market for this trading session.

Sydney ACC 11:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
London AH 11:36 GMT March 1, 2007
Might be difficult for cable to keep this strenght, though

There is the MPC meeting next week. Concerns about a March interest rate increase, however unlikely, after August and January, will have everyone nervous. The closer we get to the time more these concerns will support sterling.

London AH 11:36 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Might be difficult for cable to keep this strenght, though

UK Alex 11:27 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Manufacturing growth accelerates

NY RP 10:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
In reference to the carry trade, the bigger picture (not daily pips trading) is Japan is raising rates for the first time in years. This will be gradual, but the fact is they aer rising. The carry trade was put on slowly and will be taken off slowly with the risk being to disorderly unwinding. Carry trade interest evaporates after increased volatility. Not a one way road, but certainly more visble. Go gold 750.

Auckland trotter 10:48 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 10:33 GMT March 1, 2007
“with possible short trades.”

To save confusion - I mean that I am looking to take small pip profit on the up movement on various trades and leverage within my major trade on the dips in the price. That way I will attempt to cover the losses on my major trade I placed earlier.

If the price breaks the upper level of the pennant, then I have more profit with extra trades, until then we shall see.

PAR 10:42 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
With a huge interest differential of 4.75% between USD and Yen it is not difficult to imagine why the carry trades are not unwinding despite the constant Japanese and European rethoric .

Auckland trotter 10:33 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 10:06 GMT March 1, 2007
“Trotter , I see a pennant over the last two days. “

That is what I have, but misused it:


The daily pivot of 1.3216 appears to be the centre of the ‘possible pennant’ (ref. My previous posting). Now looking for up.

Took profit before up to the upper level of the ‘pennant’. Should have traded down from there, but didn’t because a false break of the level. Had short term indicators saying down with long still saying up, and see some uncertainty in the EUR/USD market - lesson learnt.

Trading up from the daily pivot after the opening of the UK market, and will ‘nurse’ my early entry buy trades, with possible short trades.

Pressure to around the weekly R2 pivot of 1.3252.

Lahore FM 10:26 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty 10:10 GMT March 1, 2007
agree.

Auckland peat 10:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
he was right last time...

madrid mm 10:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty 10:10 GMT March 1, 2007

YES SIR !!!! 8-)

Andorra Qwerty 10:10 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Alright, here's another 80-pip trade, SHORT NZD/USD @ 0.7010 (current level), target 0.6930. I'll be back when target prints. Don't ask, just trade. GT GL.

Auckland peat 10:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Trotter , I see a pennant over the last two days.

Syd 09:34 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
The fall in Danish January retail sales is the largest drop ever recorded, says Handelsbanken's Jes Asmussen. He says the numbers are a clear indication that the Danish consumer spending feast is nearly at an end. "This underlines our expectation that private consumption during the course of this year will become a less important factor for the support of economic growth," Asmussen says.

Syd 09:30 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
DJ UK Jan Mortgage Lending Was Forecast At +GBP10.1B
UK Jan Mortgage Approvals 120,000 Vs Dec 114,000
UK Jan Net Mortgage Lending +GBP9.6B Vs Dec +GBP10.3B
UK Jan Net Consumer Lending Was Forecast At +GBP10.9B
30 *DJ UK Jan Net Consumer Lending +GBP10.6B Vs Dec +GBP11.3B
UK Feb Mfg PMI Forecast At 52.8
UK Feb Mfg PMI 55.4 VS 53.2 In Jan - Sources

Sofia mik 09:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP Manufacturing PMI 55.4

Syd 09:27 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   

Japan's Watanabe: Economic Recovery Is Now Sustained


Japan's economic recovery has become sustained, with household consumption beginning to make a contribution to a revival that was initially driven by exports, Hiroshi Watanabe, Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, said Thursday.

"The recovery of the economy is sustained and led by the private sector," Watanabe said. "There is a good amount of household consumption."

Watanabe was speaking to investors at a conference on Japan's bond markets.

Syd 09:25 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan's Watanabe: BOJ Interest Rate Rise Will Not Harm Econ

Syd 09:15 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan's Watanabe: Household Consumption Is Gathering Pace
Japan's Watanabe: Govt Is Focussing On Structural Reform
Japan's Watanabe: Recovery Led By The Private Sector

Sofia mik 09:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
I think UK Man. PMI will be below 51, forec. 53, PRev. -52.8
gl/gt to all!

Andorra Qwerty 09:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Andorra Qwerty 08:24 GMT February 26, 2007
Do you want a safe trade for nice 70/80 pips? Short EUR/CHF, target 1.6140. I'll be back when target prints ... don't ask, just trade. GT GL.

****

Hope you cashed them, just came back after target more than hit. GT GL.

Auckland trotter 09:04 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 08:58 GMT March 1, 2007
Sorry - should read:

Does anyone see a possible pennant on the EUR/USD 1hr 5day chart at the moment?

Syd 09:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Risk/Reward Favors Selling Cable At 1.96

Immediate outlook for cable is negative with failure of 1.9505 (converging inter-week lows) expected to confirm a correction high at 1.9675, says Royal Bank of Scotland. Downside, the bank sees risk through the mid-February lows of 1.9405 to target the 2007 lows of 1.9265-35, which are seen as a monthly closing barrier to 1.8820 and 1.8480. For a trading strategy, the bank says sell at 1.96, targeting 1.93 with a stop at 1.97. Cable now trades at 1.96 with immediate resistance pegged at 1.9620.

Auckland trotter 08:58 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone see a possible pennant on the 1hr 5day chart at the moment?

Sofia mik 08:54 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
German Manufacturing PMI 57.2

Spotforex NY 08:52 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
MM - I would label it a "tasting menu"

and perhaps it should be a part of the everyday diet.

madrid mm 08:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Just my thought of the day fwiw. It is difficult to successfully trade and understand a specific market. It is next to impossible for an individual, especially a beginner, to be successful in several markets at the same time. Trading is like making love. If you don t believe me , try making love to 6 ,9 or more partners at the same time.
8-) and be4 you ask , i never did it . LOL

Gen dk 08:32 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 08:26 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Carry Likely To Return But Not As Before

Carry trades may well return but they are unlikely to resume as before.

Not only will investors be more cautious over the size of their exposure, they are also likely to be more discerning than they were previously.

This week's global shakeout - which sent stock markets reeling, investors racing out of high-risk markets, and EBS recording its busiest day ever - has certainly shaken confidence.

Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist at Bear Stearns International in London, pointed out that, despite the rebound, investors will continue to look over their shoulders.

"We remain nervous that a deeper rout could still be on the cards such is the liquidity and leverage in the market, and in carry trades in particular," Barrow said.
Even without some shift in perceptions about risk or the U.S. recovery, some suggest that the market was already ripe for a correction. Bilal Hafeez, chief currency strategist with Deutsche Bank in London, point to the near 20% overvaluation of a typical basket of G10 carry trades, long of the New Zealand and Australian dollars and the pound but short of the yen, Swiss franc and Swedish krona.

"In the past such fundamental overvaluation has typically led to periods of significant underperformance in carry trades," Hafeez noted.

Hong Kong Ahe 08:22 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USDYEN 118.10 is said to hold good size bids from a semi official Japanese investment name while market is trying to test 117.50. Keep an close eye to watch the sand line before open of NY market and see EURJPY as indicator. GL GT.

Baltimore Zoltan 08:15 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Osaka, AZUSA : thank you both! I

Midwest 08:14 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
All profit taking in STGYEN. Thats it for STG today, think we just drift back down to 1.9575-80

AZUSA 4X-ed 07:51 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
03/01 02:50 FRANCE JAN PPI +0.1% M/M, +1.8% Y/Y; DEC -0.1% M/M, +2.7% Y/Y

AZUSA 4X-ed 07:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Baltimore, GL >: 03/01 02:50 FRANCE JAN PPI EX-ENERGY/AGRICULTURE +0.5% M/M, +2.9% Y/Y

Osaka Buck 07:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Forex factory has a decent calendar. I've been checking it for a week and seems fine.

Baltimore Zoltan 07:35 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Ny Ny, I'll check it out. I have AFX news and their econ calendar is often incomplete and imprecise as well.

NY NY 07:26 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Should try the TTN news advertised on GV here. Good for that sort of stuff (econ data)

Bangkok bkk 07:18 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:06 GMT March 1, 2007
Bangkok bkk 04:36 GMT March 1, 2007
Where do you see EUR/USD tonight?

--------------------------

IMHO........EUR/USD going nowhere tonight, just consolidate between 1.3190 - 1.3260 range. I am waiting to close out all my EUR long position though... may be around 1.3245/50 tonight(if see).

Baltimore Zoltan 07:16 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
That's why then! The GVI calendar seems to be off sometimes by an hour or so! Thanks!!

NY NY 07:15 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
French PPI due out at 7:50 GMT

Sydney ACC 07:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Baltimore Zoltan 07:08 GMT March 1, 2007
My table indicates 07:50 GMT.

Baltimore Zoltan 07:08 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone have the French PPI numbers? Supposed to have come out 20 min ago and EUR_GBP popped up at around that time. Thanks!

madrid mm 06:59 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 06:49 GMT March 1, 2007

touché 8-)

Sydney ACC 06:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:41 GMT March 1, 2007
As he has said previously, I think to Congress, if you have understood what I have said they i have failed.

madrid mm 06:46 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
FT: A senior MoF official said he thought a sudden reversal of the carry trade was unlikely because institutional investors were hedged agst currency swings, while retail investors were less likely to repatriate funds quickly.

On BoJ policy, he departed from the finance ministry line that there is no need to raise rates in the absence of inflation. He backed BoJ Mizuno's argument, saying: "Rates of 0.5%, or even worse 0.25% or zero, make the market economy a joke. Money must have some price. Otherwise you just have a free flow of money investing in inefficient enterprises."

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan said a recession in the U.S. is possible, though not probable this year as inventory problems in the economy are being addressed quickly. He acknowledged at the time that most economists are not predicting a recession. His successor, Ben Bernanke told Congress yesterday that the Fed still expects the economy to pick up later this year. - BBG.

FT: Iran's top security official, Ali Larijani, indicated yesterday that Tehran would take part in a Baghdad conference this month on Iraq's future, but the White House insisted that the meeting would not be an occasion for bilateral talks between the US and Iran.

Syria has accepted the invitation. And despite its hesitation, Iran would be embarrassed if it failed to attend. The State Dept spokesman Sean McCormack raised the possibility Sec Condoleezza Rice would meet directly with Iran's Manouchehr Mottaki, but not to discuss the nuclear issue.While the State Department was signalling a possible shift in policy, the White House was eager to insist that US policy had not changed.

Japan Government spokesman Yasuhisa Shiozaki reiterates Japan economy on recovery track, no comments on stocks.

Aust Q4 new capital expenditure rose +1.0%q/q lower than exp of +4.0%.

Focus still on JPY, CHF carry trades and stock markets. Still very good 2-way interest in Cross/JPY, downside supported by huge local Japanese mega-city banks, importers demand at lows 118, topside capped by offshore selling, Asian accounts, China, UK clearers, US investment houses selling capping highs of 118.85-90, and interesting talks of selling by large Japanese custodian names - repatriation?.

Focus on stocks, with Shanghai -2.91% now. USD/JPY hit highs of 118.85 on fixing while EUR/JPY leapt to 157.28 highs fm 156.75 in early trade on Japanese buying, only to come off as funds sold Cross/JPY - still looking to unwind JPY carry trades.

Focus on unnamed MoF official comments in FT that interest rates of 0.50%, 0.25% or worse 0% make market economy a joke supporting JPY on speculation of more BoJ hikes to come. East Europeans, Russian, German sold huge GBP/JPY from 233 to sub 232 in afternoon trades, pushing USD/JPY to 118.14, EUR/JPY to 156.10 lows, before rebounding as Japanese mega-city banks absorbed the huge selling and bought it up.

USD/JPY bids still at 118.00-10 lows, but stoploss orders building on break of 117.90 and key level still rumoured options at 117.50. GBP/JPY offers coming in at 233 handle, with key focus on 230.00 handle after the huge selling today.

EUR/USD still locked in range of 1.3180-1.3250, with focus on EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF selling pressure.

AUD/USD weighed by big 4 OZ bks, Asian, China selling ahead of 0.7900 handle, and huge Centro M+A and lower Aust Q4 Capex, NZD lower on NZD/JPY sales, AUD/NZD buying. USD could gain on lower Iran-US tensions with Iran agreeing to attend talks, oil could dip.

Nikkei -0.86%% or 150.61pts at 17,453, eye China stocks. JGBs down despite strong 10-yr auction, yield +0.020% at 1.645%

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.14/118.87, EUR/USD 1.3217/1.3239, GBP/USD 1.9615/1.9653, USD/CHF 1.2173/1.2203, AUD/USD 0.7857/0.7879, NZD/USD 0.6992/0.7019.

madrid mm 06:41 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
does that comment matter?
Greenspan Says U.S. Recession Possible, Not Probable (Update4)

By Jason Clenfield and Kiyori Ueno

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said a recession in the U.S. is possible, though not probable this year as excess inventory is being reduced quickly, according to people attending a CLSA Japan Forum in Tokyo today.

madrid mm 06:35 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
gm fx Jedi

@gmt +1
EUR-USD
R3 = 1.3304
R2 = 1.3271
R1 = 1.3248
Pivot = 1.3215
S1 = 1.3192
S2 = 1.3159
S3 = 1.3136
H = 1.3238
L = 1.3182
C = 1.3225

Auckland peat 06:27 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
I dont think its likely to happen - it has of course been attacked vigorously from the obvious pressure groups , and as you say would take time. But clearly they are exploring other possibilities so it all adds to the mix (risk).

Midwest 06:26 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Dollar yen and Eur both seen the lows of the day. Don't think we get much follow through now that the stop hunting has been halted.

Sydney ACC 05:52 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 05:38 GMT March 1, 2007
Would appreciate your comments with regard to the possibility that some measure other than interest rate increase may be introduced. That surcharge attacks the one benefit fixed interest mortgages give a borrower ie certainty of cost. If one was to be hit with this levy what would be the point of taking out a fixed rate mortgage especially if was higher than the variable rate.
I guess if the RBNZ and government were to introduce some measure other than interest increase other than adjustment to income tax or GST rates it would require parliamentary approval and would be weeks away. It would be interesting though Kiwi would definitely take a bath.

Auckland peat 05:38 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Caba
I think a hike of .25 , I'm budgeting for it with my mortage already heh. Cant see .5 , imo not raising is more likely

From an article in The NZHerald today
______________
The financial markets see only a one-in-five chance that Bollard will not hike the official cash rate next Thursday, even though:
* The most recent readings on economic growth are only 0.3 per cent for the quarter and 1.4 per cent for the year.
* Inflation at 2.6 per cent is inside the target band and heading lower.
* The official cash rate is already 7.25 per cent and has been for more than a year.
* The dollar is close to US70c.
The fall in inflation is a short-term reflection of lower world oil prices; the underlying inflation pressures remain strong.
And those growth numbers relate to the September quarter last year. The evidence since then is that the economy is gathering speed again - at least the parts which are related to domestic spending rather than export earnings. There is little sign of the slowdown in the housing market and consumer spending that Bollard has said he needs to see.
____________________

But what is interesting is a document on the RBNZ website (which was sent to the FinMin) outlining a Mortgage Interest Levy the purpose of which is "to supplement the OCR in periods when housing market-related pressures in New Zealand were particularly intense..."
This of course would give Bollard another tool to deal with the main reason for his concern - housing prices, and if he is working this angle he may not feel the need to hike. Just a thought.

Sydney ACC 05:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 04:36 GMT March 1, 2007
Where do you see EUR/USD tonight?

Syd 04:53 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
US Names Buy Yen Vs Crosses; USD/JPY Heavy -Dealer

U.S. names buying yen broadly against various higher-yield currencies, say Singapore dealer; "the dollar/yen looks very offered, I think it can break 118.00 to 118.05 near-term support later." Dow Jones technical analysis shows stronger support at 117.48 (Tuesday low), any breach of which would target measured objective at 115.

Syd 04:53 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Worry Over Possible Another US Stock Fall Weighs
Some market players doubt whether U.S. stocks will continue to stabilize following rally overnight. "There is still a good chance that U.S. stocks will swing" back and forth for time being, head of derivative trading at brokerage says. 52.39-point gain on DJIA overnight offers little proof U.S. stocks on recovery track after 416.02-point plunge Tuesday, he adds. Such volatility could hurt Japanese stocks again like Wednesday. Depending how far U.S. stocks drop, Nikkei could fall to psychologically key 17000 this week or next, he adds.

USA BAY 04:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SOURCE DEALER

[USD/CHF] was sold down by intraday spec types near the 1.2199 intraday h...
[USD/CHF] was sold down by intraday spec types near the 1.2199 intraday high bringing it to an intraday low of 1.2183 where it is currently trading. The first improvement in the KOF leading indicator index in 7 months as well as a strong UBS consumption index the day before will bode well for the GDP report which is due on Mar 6. The combination of a very hawkish SNB Board and the recent run of decent economic data plus the latest unwinding of carry trades will provide fodder for the CHF to advance further against the greenback. With no economic data out of Switzerland today, the pair will look to US initial claims, personal income, ISM (Manufacturing) and Treasury Sec Paulson's speech for inspiration.

Bangkok bkk 04:36 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
GBP may trade lower to 1.9515/525 again today. Should take profit around that level if see today.

USA BAY 04:35 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SOURCE DEALER

[EUR/YEN] at session low, down through the NY reactionary low of 156.43. Th...
[EUR/YEN] at session low, down through the NY reactionary low of 156.43. The timing of the sell off matches the Nikkei's post lunch weakness through 17350, but real linkage is not certain. Both sides of the initial parameters at 157.00 and 156.40 are breached. Stock mkts" losses are huge, and funds" repatriation would continue, so an early end of Yen carry trade unwinding would not be likely.

SINGAPORE GFX 04:34 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

I am flat for now. Thinking of which bandwagon to jump into, hopefully won't end up in one that will fall into a quick sand hhaha. thank you very much.

Bangkok bkk 04:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY should found support for today around 118.15 and 117.90 Unlikely to trade below 117.90 JPY ..... from here it probably rally to 119.50 +

IMHO.

Sydney ACC 04:20 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 04:07 GMT March 1, 2007

We will get a clearer indication in the next hour or so, but it strikes me we will see further liquidation of short yen positions. Euro, sterling, Aussiue and Kiwi are all on their lows for the day and have moved left over the last couple of hours.
Stock markets are off so I would hold on to your seat it might be a rough ride tonight.

USA BAY 04:12 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SOURCE DEALER

[USD/CAD] rose from an earlier low of 1.1657 to an o/n high of 1.1739 on ...
[USD/CAD] rose from an earlier low of 1.1657 to an o/n high of 1.1739 on fears of a slowdown in global demand for commodities in the event of a global slowdown triggered by the stock market meltdown. The Loonie which is very much influenced by the prices of commodities was on the defensive in early London trade as fears of further falls in commodity prices saw the pair piercing through the 1.1700 handle. However the Loonie strengthened to recoup some of the earlier losses in New York as commodities prices stabilised and crude oil recovered to close higher at $61.79. Today sees the release of the Canadian Q4 current account balance and the Jan Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI). The weak Loonie in Q4 of 2006 should help to boost trade activity. Buying orders at 1.1670 by a UK Clearer will protect the downside and selling orders at 1.1740 by exporters will limit upside gains.

USA BAY 04:10 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SOURCE DEALER

[DLR/YEN] sinks to 118.28. A non-citybank is noted selling again from aroun...
[DLR/YEN] sinks to 118.28. A non-citybank is noted selling again from around 118.50. [NIKKEI-225] closes the AM session down more than 200 points along with the Shanghai stocks down nearly 3%, so Yen strength amidst risk aversion seems not over. BOJ [MIZUNO] is introduced in tdy's FT as one of the most hawkish members of the BOJ policy board and says cheap money including the so-called Yen carry trade has side effects, which was the main reason for BOJ's latest rate hike.

SINGAPORE GFX 04:07 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Are you looking for a rally up on the yen pairs tonite. tia

Bangkok bkk 04:05 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Just bought USD/JPY @ 118.25 ....

USA BAY 04:03 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SOURCE DEALER,

[GBP/USD] met European and US invt bank sellers at the intraday high of 1.9652 ...
[GBP/USD] met European and US invt bank sellers at the intraday high of 1.9652 and subsequently drifted down to an intraday low of 1.9617 before a US Prime came in to buy it at 1.9625 bringing it to current level of 1.9640. With a slew of economic data due today which includes the manufacturing sector PMI, consumer credit, mortgage lendingmortgage approvals, M4 and the CBI Distributive Trades Survey, the pair will plenty of reasons for moving one way or the other. On balance though, the data should be mixed with some improvement expected in the manufacturing sector but the distributive trades survey is expected to deteriorate. This should keep the pair within a 1.9610-1.9660 range before the data.

Sydney ACC 04:02 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:43 GMT March 1, 2007
Neither AUD or Kiwi has recovered much since the sell-off, although the latter has done a little better.
Things are shaping up for another run tonight, USD/JPY and others have moved towards the left over the last hour or so. Nikkei is down 230 points (1.3%) and All Ords has been in negative territory all day but not as bad as Japan.

Syd 03:53 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan Econ Doing Reasonably Well
Greenspan said the Japanese economy is doing "reasonably well." He also said that "Japanese people seem to be more patriotic than the rest of us" considering that households buy big amounts of government bonds, helping keep interest rates down, CLSA quoted him as saying.

Greenspan repeated that it's in China's interest to allow the yuan's exchange rate to be set by the market, but that doing so wouldn't lead to an improved U.S. trade balance because imports from China may decrease but would likely be replaced by imports from other developing countries, according to CLSA.

The former Fed chief also said that it would be "counterproductive" to directly regulate hedge funds, which are key for maintaining global economic growth, and that the most effective way to supervise them is via counter-party regulation, according to the bank

USA BAY 03:52 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

My bias on gbp/usd is still to the downside.

Syd 03:44 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Dlr/Yen rally ( should read collapse)

Syd 03:43 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC good article , with the amount of trades in Kiwi, once they all make for the exit for what ever the reason may be.its going to be very ugly and many dead bodies trampled in the rush , everyone is waiting for the Dlr/Yen rally but it could be Kiwi/Yen that surprises

Syd 03:38 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Japan's chief government spokesman said Thursday that the nation's economy remains on a recovery track.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki made the remarks in response to a fall in global stock prices Wednesday that caused the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to plunge 515.80 points, or 2.9%, to 17604.12, its biggest point decline since June 13, 2006.

"Basically, nothing has changed our view that Japan's economic fundamentals are on a recovery path," Shiozaki told a regular press conference.

LKWD JJ 03:26 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 01:23 GMT March 1, 2007
British Pound Falters Before 1.9700
Wednesday, 28 February 2007 12:08:11 GMT
===================================
and therefore...? what do you make of this?

Syd 03:03 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba Hi, dont see them going 50p but there is a possible chance them going 25bp would be good for kiwi initially .

Hong Kong Qindex 03:03 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The following is still valid :

Hong Kong Qindex 03:06 GMT February 25, 2007
USD/CAD : Consolidating ranges are located at [1.1562] - [1.1590] and [1.1639] - [1.1690]. A projected supporting level is located at 1.1468 - 1.1471*. A projected resistant level is expected at 1.1713* - 1.1730*.

Sydney ACC 03:00 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
CABA have you seen this article in today's NZ Herald. Another buy the rumour sell the fact story.

Slump could be turning point for kiwi dollar

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/search/story.cfm?storyid=00054A51-0DD5-15E5-8AED83027AF1010F

Sydney ACC 02:53 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 02:49 GMT March 1, 2007
ACC, do you mean .25 or .50 hike ?

25bp.

Philadelphia Caba 02:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
ACC, do you mean .25 or .50 hike ?

Sydney ACC 02:46 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 02:18 GMT March 1, 2007
Using Greenspan speak - Possible but not probable.

USA BAY 02:37 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   

MAL SEMIJI

1.3241, 1.3180

Syd 02:30 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
DJ Japan Govt Shiozaki: Japan Economy On Recovery Path

mal semiji 02:25 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
anyone know range for eurusd,,,,tq

Philadelphia Caba 02:18 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
DB's chief economist Darren Gibbs says biggest risk to widely held view of a 25bp hike next week is that RBNZ opts for a "strategic" 50bp hike to send a strong signal to housing market.. Notes an aggressive move now would lessen likelihood that follow-up hikes would be needed; plus such a move would ultimately dent domestic demand indicators sufficiently enough to bring forward a sustained NZD downturn, providing relief to exporters.

Syd, ACC, Peat..may I know your view on RBNZ decision next week, pls? tia.

Syd 02:06 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Greenspan Says US Recession "Not Probable"

Latest comments from ex-Fed chief Greenspan may bring more stability to global markets as he adds qualifier to recent statement that U.S. recession later in year is "possible"; tells CLSA forum in Tokyo via satellite that end-year recession is "possible" but "not probable," adds worst is over for U.S. housing market. Greenspan helped spook markets earlier in week by using the "R" word at a time many economists are starting to fret over state of U.S. economy given weakness in housing sector in particular and amid weak data of late; he did at the time add most forecasters weren't predicting a recession but latest comments bring this point home more clearly. Current Fed chief Bernanke poured some balm over markets last night by sticking with his moderately upbeat view on economy

Syd 02:05 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
While USD/JPY still a bit higher from NY, pair is off early peaks and may not rise above 119 in Asia given selling by non-Japan funds, says trader at Tokyo securities company; "certainly, many players have been building up dollar longs given the recovery in Chinese and U.S. stock prices, but a cautious mood about the dollar has persisted." Still, if buy-stops at 118.80-119 pile up and are triggered, may rise to 119.20; last at 118.60 on EBS

Philadelphia Caba 01:49 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
sold usd/jpy at 118.80, one short order waiting at 119.10 with s/l 119.30 and t/p open if 118 give away..

UK Alex 01:47 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/newsnight/2007/02/markets_from_bad_to_verse.html

USA BAY 01:27 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Euro Topped?
Wednesday, 28 February 2007 12:07:23 GMT
Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst

Our analysis from yesterday that “a likely level for a reversal is 1.3257/64. 1.3257 is the 78.6% fibo of 1.3364-1.2865 and 1.3264 is the monthly R1 pivot. Additionally, the 61.8% extension of waves 1 through 3 is at 1.3253 (1.3081 + (.618 x (1.3190 – 1.2911))” has proved correct so far. A break below yesterday’s low at 1.3160 would bolster the bearish case. Near term resistance is at former intraday support of 1.3211. Yesterday’s high at 1.3262 needs to hold in order for the bearish structure to remain intact. Short term bearish support on a break below 1.3160 is at 1.3080. Also keep in mind that this decline is expected to take prices below 1.2865 (eventually and barring a break above 1.3262).

Australia R 01:27 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
The EUR/USD was not affected by china's correction? It is still in its uptrend. Resistance on EUR/USD 1.3336 ?! Was anyone shorting the USD/JPY you would have done well there! I noticed a lower high from previous High 122.09. Someone posted me this cool site where I can learn technical analysis to sharpen up my knowledge on chart patterns.. You don't have to pay a cent all for FRee unlike commercial sites out there. All the patterns discussed on this site apply to all markets http://www.learntechnicaltrading.com

USA BAY 01:24 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand Dollar In Small 5th Down
Wednesday, 28 February 2007 12:10:05 GMT

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst

Analysis is unchanged from yesterday – “Given the long term head and shoulders pattern along with the 78.6% fibo of .7470-.5927 at .7138, it is possible that Kiwi is near a major top. The best interpretation on the daily accounts for an extended wave 1 from .5927. As mentioned with the USDJPY, a correction following a 5 wave sequence where the 1st wave is extended tends to bottom near the bottom of the 2nd wave. Thus, expectations are for a decline to .6528 from near current price. The 78.6% fibo at .7138 is risk.” Similar to the AUDUSD, it looks like a small 5th wave is working down (from .7028).

USA BAY 01:23 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
British Pound Falters Before 1.9700
Wednesday, 28 February 2007 12:08:11 GMT

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst
The longer term wave structure suggests that a major top is in place at 1.9915. In fact, the rally from 1.8090 traced out an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are often fully retraced. A decline below 1.9260 strongly suggests that a top is in place at 1.9915. The rally to 1.9675 may have completed a correction of the 1.9915-1.9401 decline. Only a decline below 1.9401 gives scope to more additional potential.

USA BAY 01:18 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Thanks a lot. Will wait and observe until there is a clearer direction. gt/gl

USA BAY 01:16 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Swiss Franc Reversal at 61.8%
Wednesday, 28 February 2007 12:06:37 GMT

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Analyst

From yesterday “the pair is currently in the C wave position of the A-B-C correction. Although the pair has bounced this morning at the 50% fibo of 1.1878-1.2575 at 1.2227, the intraday charts suggest that the decline has more to go. Watch the 61.8% fibo of 1.1878-1.2575 at 1.2145 for a bottom.” Price has rallied over 60 pips off of yesterday’s low at 1.2144 but price needs to rally above the 2/20 low at 1.2312 to more confidently say that at least a near term low is in place. Still, downside risk is limited.

Sydney ACC 01:13 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:58 GMT March 1, 2007
I am uncertain which way Aussie will go. It seems stuck around here at the moment with plenty of support and resistance against the USD which also translates to uncertainty against JPY as well.
At the moment there are serious tax breaks on superannuation contributions which are enticing people to invest befoer 30 June. The clearest evidence of this is the increase in the number of investment properties being put on the market and the proceeds invested in super.
This piece of news in itself would make one ask well what has that got to do with the forex rate. Well the most popular super investment is in a growth fund or balanced fund which invests in a range of assets including property, equities and fixed interest. Most of these type of funds invest in offshre equities which comprise 25% to 60% of the funds investments. Now last year Australia's foreign currency assets increased by AUD 56 billion, that includes assets other than super. But with this influx of money into super and a proporation going offshore unhedged it just provides another headwind for Aussie in its climb upwards.
In addition to that we have the possibility of Qantas and Coles, two major corporations falling prey to private equity buyers. About 45% of Qantas is foreign owned, most of that would be unhedged, Coles not sure but a large percentage nevertheless. If they get taken over the foreigners will probably sell their AUD's.
So despite USD looking like a a crock of **** AUD seems to have its own inherent problems.
i hope I've been able to give you some insight, but at the moment I'm not sure where it goes.

Philadelphia Caba 00:59 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:50 GMT March 1, 2007
Just like the rest of the market don't have a clue.

exactly..!

USA BAY 00:58 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

At what level would you recommend going long aud/jpy under the current scenario. thanks

Sydney ACC 00:50 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 00:46 GMT March 1, 2007
So we have Bank of America recommending long AUD versus JPY and Lehmann short teh antipodeans.
Just like the rest of the market don't have a clue.
FWIW Richard Grace CBA Analayst still bullish Aussie and Kiwi. He's been pretty accurate the last six months or so.

Philadelphia Caba 00:46 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Bank Of America Goes Long AUD/JPY
[Dow Jones] This week's risk aversion episode will ultimately be regarded as limited so shift in currencies creates some opportunities, Bank of America strategists say. For example, AUD/JPY fell sharply despite likelihood BOJ won't hike again until at least August and despite Australia's economy clearly continuing to benefit from resources boom; recommends going long AUD/JPY at 93.20 with target of 97.60, stop loss on 2-day close below 92.30, lower end of upward channel of past year.

wellington am 00:45 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
SINGAPORE GFX 00:38 GMT March 1, 2007

This is a position trade. If it breaks out of this 2 month consolidation to the upside (say through 1.5550) with strengh, then I will be out and watching.

abha fxs 00:40 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY has completed an upwards corrective A-B-C wave pattern, come to a high probability reversal value, and created a system compliant low risk / high reward trade opportunity.

Trade Sell USD/JPY at 118.80
Stop is 119.21
Target is 117.00 / 116.50
Risk is 30 pips
Reward is min. 176 pips
RRR is min. 5.9 to 1
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: high
Reward / Risk Ratio : good
For research purposes only.
Wave hypothesis: Wave 5 down.

SINGAPORE GFX 00:38 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
WELLINGTON AM,

What is the stop loss on the eur/cad short and whats the tp please. thank you

wellington am 00:34 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
abha fxs 00:32 GMT March 1, 2007
Good post. What's your model based on?

Am selling eur/cad personally - top of the range and crossed to sell on weeklys.

abha fxs 00:32 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
added 2 postion for Sell USD/CAD at 117.25
Stop is 117.51
Target is 115.50
Risk is 31 pips
Reward is 170 pips
RRR is 5.5 to 1
Confidence level: good
Accuracy: high
Reward / Risk Ratio : very good
For research purposes only.
Wave hypothesis: Wave 3 down.

Syd 00:29 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Australian 4Q New Capex +1.0% Vs +3.5% Consensus

Syd 00:22 GMT March 1, 2007 Reply   
Lehman Exits G10 Carry Basket Long

Lehman Brothers exits long G10 carry basket (long AUD, CAD, NZD, SEK vs short CHF, JPY) given breach of risk averse level by its Market Risk Sentiment Index and given recent developments in global equities market; also exits long SEK/JPY. Says systematic trading models signal maximum short commodity currency exposure and short positioning in SEK given recent fall in S&P 500.