Forex Forum Archive for 03/13/2007

Syd 23:52 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY's sharp drop and prospect that it could widen losses in Asia have sent speculators, including non-Japan bank traders, scrambling to unwind short options positions, causing implied volatilities to surge, says trader at major Japan bank. 1-month ATM USD/JPY volatility at 9.8%/10.3%, sharply higher vs 8.9%/9.3% in NY overnight; also around same level as March 5, when spot hit low of 115.16. Adds rise to 10.5%, or even 11%, can't be ruled out if USD/JPY goes further south, as "I don't feel that the offloading of short positions (in options) has run its course yet" given sell-off of options eyed over past few days. Spot last 116.02 on EBS, off 115.88 earlier

hk ab 23:48 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
mkt busy in getting BOJ comment early in the morning.

Philadelphia Caba 23:07 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
london av 23:04 GMT
market expecting .25 hike...big move can be .5 hike or no hike ... (.25 hike + hawkish comm. it's chf ++)

london av 23:04 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Has anyone watched CHF after interest rate decisions in the past? has therebeen big moves

Syd 22:36 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
NZ's 4Q Manufacturing Sales Fall 2.2% From 3Q -Stats NZ
New Zealand's fourth-quarter manufacturing sales fell as meat and dairy product manufacturing dropped sharply

Syd 22:30 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Australian Dlr Hit By Revival Of Risk Aversion
Australian dollar on back foot in early Asian trade as a slide in U.S. stocks revives risk aversion and sees recent pattern of carry trade unwinding return. AUD/USD softer at 0.7814, vs 0.7854 late Tuesday. U.S. stock market posted large losses on back of concerns about sub-prime mortgage market and softer economic data. Another large move in the VIX index, or implied volatility in U.S. stock indexes, from 14% back above 18% signals the return of risk aversion; bad news for both AUD and NZD. AUD/USD headed back to test support at 0.7800 and beyond at 0.7750.
dj

Syd 22:29 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:27 GMT wouldnt like to say until we see what Asia markets make of the drop in NY

USA BAY 22:27 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
SYD

Do you have a target for short aud/jpy. thanks

Syd 22:04 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
OECD Jan Indicator Signals Econ Slowdown
dow Jones...The world's leading economies may be set for a slowdown, as leading indicators of activity compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development fell across the board in January. Figures posted on the OECD's statistics Web site showed Tuesday that the composite leading indicator of economic activity in its 30 members fell to 109.4 in January from 109.5 in December. The leading indicators for each of the Group of Seven leading industrial nations - with the sole exception of Canada - also fell. The leading indicator for the U.S. dropped to 106.2 from 106.6, while the leading indicator for Japan slipped to 99.5 from 100.0 and the leading indicator for the euro zone fell to 109.2 from 109.3.

"The latest set of OECD leading indicators for the G7 paint a markedly downbeat view of the near-term outlook for activity," said Ian Harwood, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in a research note on the figures. The leading indicator suggests that slowdown may soon begin, if it hasn't already. Industrial production data from G7 economies and elsewhere record a drop in output in January, with Germany the major exception.

U.S. industrial production fell in January by the largest amount since Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast in September 2005, while output also dropped in France, Italy and Japan. The U.K. recorded a modest rise in industrial production - which includes North Sea oil and gas - but a surprise drop in manufacturing output.

Declines in industrial production were also reported in Argentina, Brazil, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Malaysia and Sweden.

The OECD said the leading indicator for the U.K. fell to 100.0 from 100.3, while the lead indicator for Germany fell to 114.9 from 115.1, the leading indicator for France fell to 107.0 from 107.1 and the lead indicator for Italy fell to 95.6 from 96.0.

The lead indicator for Canada rose to 103.5 from 103.3.

Gen dk 21:58 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 21:57 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Grange Securities //Readying For Weak Consumer Sentiment

Risk of weak reading on consumer sentiment in Australia's Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment survey for March due for release at 2330 GMT today, says Stephen Roberts, director of research at Grange Securities. Three consecutive strong monthly increases through to February may have left consumer sentiment vulnerable to bad news; particularly as March survey was taken on hot-on-the-heels of heavy falls in global equity markets; coupled with rises in petrol prices during February and "it would be surprising if consumer sentiment did not give up (February's 1.7%) gain and more" in the March survey.

Syd 21:55 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Dlr Fortunes Hinge On Carry Trade Demand

Australian dollar moves lower overnight as a revival of investor risk aversion hit high-yielding currencies; AUD/USD trades at 0.7813 in early Asian trading from an overnight high of 0.7885. Overnight losses in U.S. equity markets revive concerns about exposure to risky assets, prompts widespread carry trade unwinding, which cues heavy selling of AUD/JPY, says National Australia Bank currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos. Local market is more likely to look past today's Westpac consumer confidence data to concentrate on what happens in global stock markets as AUD fortunes rely on investor confidence in carry trades.
DJ

Baltimore Zoltan 21:52 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Never mind, just came in : NZ manuf sales -2.2%

Baltimore Zoltan 21:49 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Anyone's got the NZ manufacturing sales data? Another site says it's delayed. Thanks!

GVI john 21:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Wed, Mar 14, 2007
04:30 JA- Jan IP (final)
09:30 UK- Feb Employment
12:30 US 4Q06 Current Account (see -$203.5bln vs. -$225.6bln 3Q06)
14:30 US- Weekly Energy

Full G-V Data Calendar

GVI john 21:44 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3198	116.23	1.2175	1.9281	1.1745	0.7812	153..39
High	1.3222	117.78	1.2261	1.9353	1.1746	0.7884	155.29
Low	1.3155	116.21	1.2165	1.9274	1.1681	0.7810	153.37
							
Simple mva	basis =>	13 Mar 2007					
5 day 	1.3164	117.09	1.2240	1.9309	1.1752	0.7805	123.45
10 day	1.3166	117.06	1.2221	1.9375	1.1749	0.7803	138.79
20 day 	1.3160	118.57	1.2278	1.9472	1.1690	0.7843	148.37
50 day 	1.3047	119.84	1.2387	1.9541	1.1741	0.7817	153.28
100 day	1.3040	118.67	1.2315	1.9453	1.1596	0.7805	153.21
200 day	1.2869	117.62	1.2366	1.9068	1.1407	0.7667	150.62

Gen dk 21:23 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 20:56 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
thanks ahe. any targets for nzd/jpy.

Syd 20:50 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
US Stocks Plunge As Subprime Woes Hit J.P. Morgan, Citigroup
J.P. Morgan Chase and Citigroup led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to an almost 250 point loss in a session that also saw Goldman Sachs stumble despite powerhouse earnings and Google tumble after a claim of "massive" copywright infringement.

Syd 20:28 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Mortgage Delinquency Levels Could Go Higher, Says S&P
NEW YORK(Dow Jones)--Mortgage delinquency levels could go higher in the near future, reflecting the massive volumes of loans written in the past years, according to a report from ratings firm Standard & Poor's.

Nonetheless, despite the rising delinquency rates, the ratings firm doesn't expect a host of downgrades.

While mortgage delinquencies and losses in the prime sector - where the borrowers have good credit history - remain below historical averages, the sheer volume of mortgages originated across all types of lenders in 2003 and 2004 will likely push mortgage delinquency levels higher for most mortgage lenders, the report says.

The outlook for the subprime sector - comprising borrowers with poor or no credit history - is not good and the fear of contagion into higher rungs of the mortgage ladder are growing.

"The rising tide of subprime defaults is raising many questions not only about the subprime market, but also about the ramifications of the subprime market's stress to the near-prime and prime sectors, potential new regulations affecting the mortgage market as a whole, and the timetable for a subprime loan market stabilization," the report says.

Ldn Times 20:23 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Usd to print yet lower in Japan tomorrow imo. Big flows noted out of Us stocks and in Japanese to follow up next days.

Syd 19:56 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Warning on 'silly' loans
March 14, 2007
LENDERS are rushing to offer products to help ease Australia's housing affordability crisis, but economists warn the schemes could make the problem worse.
link

Hong Kong Ahe 19:48 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Hi Bay, Time to short NZDYEN. GL GT. But take care of your margin management.

Bangkok bkk 19:41 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
I think it just break below 153.70 If you 're right about 151.20/150.80 I would be very happy :)

Still holding short @ 154.50

---------------------------------------------------

Hong Kong Ahe 19:02 GMT March 13, 2007
If EURYEN breaks the support of 153.70/80, it will be quick to see 151.20/150.80 again.

Syd 19:40 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Time bomb in new loans
The Age14 March 2007

Economic analysts in Australia have warned consumers that money lending schemes designed to alleviate housing costs may complicate the problem. Shared equity schemes, which offer small up-front loans, are being provided by banks and state governments in an effort to combat rising real estate prices. Adelaide Bank's equity finance mortgage (EFM), designed for the mass mortgage market, necessitates no repayments until the property is sold, but when it is, the bank will retain a 40 per cent share in capital gains. Economists claim that the EFM product will serve to drive housing prices even higher

USA BAY 19:31 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Ahe

Hong Kong Ahe 19:22 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 19:06 GMT, Hi Bay, These pairs are a bit not in synchronizing with the move of EURYEN and GBPYEN. They are waiting the move of EurYen and GBPYEN to decide their direction and in a bit of lag. Thus if EurYen breaks the 153.70/80, it is good to Sell NZDYEN and AUDYEN.

Haifa ac 19:20 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Cape Town 19:14 GMT //
Appreciate that.
I thought 1400 is "natural" area--but if you are right-- is better--gives me chance to short there Friday.
We shall see.

UK Alex 19:17 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
* US Stks Losses Steepen; NYSE Trading Curbs Put In Place

Bangkok bkk 19:15 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
london av 18:42 GMT

EUR/CHF: I think I will take profit around 1.6025-35 if see tomorrow. Not sure about 1.5950 target.

Cape Town 19:14 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac, sorry actually moved down to 1420 based on latest data today.

Cape Town 19:12 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 16:45 GMT March 13, 2007 - spx mar expiry at 1425 is worst point at present for option holders based on 9 mar 07 data.

lugano fc 19:08 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
close all shorts sp500 here from 1415/20...hoping market will give a chance to short again around 1400/05

Syd 19:07 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
DJ>>NZD/USD opens weaker, quickly builds on early losses, pair last 0.6915 vs 0.6943 local open, yesterday's 0.6955 close; overnight weakness in U.S. stock markets prompts FX investors to trim exposure to risk, says Bank of NZ currency strategist Danica Hampton, with NZD/USD nudged lower by unwinding of carry trades vs JPY. Hampton notes markets "still volatile" - reacting sharply to 2nd-tier U.S. data on rising mortgage delinquency rates that wouldn't have carried much weight before recent global equities rout. Expects Kiwi to trade in broad 0.6900-0.6980 range today, though may dip below 0.6900 if Nikkei opens sharply down; local data including 4Q manufacturing survey a likely "sideshow" to global events

USA BAY 19:06 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Any idea on aud/jpy and nzd/jpy please. thanks

madrid mm 19:06 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 18:52 GMT March 13, 2007

don t worry 8-)

Hong Kong Ahe 19:02 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
If EURYEN breaks the support of 153.70/80, it will be quick to see 151.20/150.80 again. GL GT.

Sofia mik 18:52 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Macau Sofia 18:43
I think you must beg excuses from Madrid mm

Syd 18:51 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Alt-A Mortgage Losses Accelerate, Threatening MBS - Study
Losses on so-called Alt-A home loans are accelerating and could hit the value of lower-rated portions of some mortgage-backed securities, according to a study released Tuesday.
This "alarming" deterioration could have dire consequences for some investors in the BBB- rated parts of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that contain these types of loans, but the market hasn't priced these risks in yet, Liu warned.

Losses "could potentially wipe out most of the credit support on BBB- rated bonds backed by Alt-A hybrids," Liu wrote. "And yet we have not seen any spread movements that suggest investors are taking this into consideration."Liu's study, which used LoanPerformance data from the end of January, is based on the housing market remaining relatively flat over the next few years.

"If house prices fall over the next few years, everything in this scenario will be much worst," he said in an interview.

Macau Sofia 18:43 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 18:30 GMT March 13, 2007

let me remind you have appointment with Dr Psycho tomorrow.

london av 18:42 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
bkk, what is your target price on the short EUR/CHF. I can see a good move down to 15950.

madrid mm 18:30 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
IMHO,

1-KAMPO, BoJ n MoF will buy us subprimes
2-they will repackage it
3-sell it to China on the cheap
4-which in turn will sell it to European Institutions
5- which will be sold to US consumers @ 50% discount
6-pigs will fly
8-)
It looks like, going, going, going........

USA Zeus 18:28 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
However- Those cashing in on the gold and oil "rollover" might be able to afford such luxury. PLOL

USA Zeus 18:25 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Ahh the subprime-

The situation is/will be deeper than most expect. Lender panic up into the next tier, "ALT-A" has begun.

Now that the well is dry it will be difficult to write a home equity check for that 70" TV in a negative savings environment. LOL

Sofia mik 18:23 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:15
Good idea, lets make a tel.call to BoJ
LOL

UK Alex 18:17 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 18:14 GMT March 13, 2007
No surprises there.

PAR 18:15 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Nothing to worry about.BOJ,Kampo watching market closely and ready to act. Maybe surprise rate cut in Japan . Lol.

dc CB 18:14 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
02:09 ET Massachusetts says subpoenaed UBS, Bear Stearns over subprime research - Reuters

Macau Sofia 18:08 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR, do you loss a lot these few weeks?

NYC 18:04 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
TREASURIES-Bond prices climb on subprime mortgage woes

Global-View GVI 17:58 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 17:43 GMT March 13, 2007
Kuroda giveth and taketh away

GVI john 17:42 GMT March 13, 2007
KURODA SAYS NO NEED FOR RAPID UNWINDING OF CARRY TRADES AND CARRY NOT EASY TO UNWIND

KURODA-US ECONOMY SLOWING BUT THERE WILL BE NO RECESSION

GVI Jay 17:39 GMT March 13, 2007
This may be behind the yen pop up just now:

ADP Pres Kuroda (formerly of MOF)--
- Real-scale unwinding of yen carry trades yet to come
- Carry trades "cannot go on forever." Further slowing down in US economy, changes in Japan rates could prompt reversal

jkt-aye 17:54 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
saw the japan's bullet train come right on schedule.
i'm out here.
tomorrow is another day.

Bangkok bkk 17:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Manilkara 17:43 GMT

Yes, may be you are right about GBP/USD. I just not brave to take short at current level.

LA BV? 17:43 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Any news in the jpy?

Manilkara 17:43 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
imho gbp is a sell. Was unable to go up with good UK news and later with bad US news. After 9280 the drop could be big.

Bangkok bkk 17:33 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:23 GMT

Still sell on rallies strategy, not buy on dips. A fall to 1.91xx is possible this week.

Bangkok bkk 17:31 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:23 GMT

You mean GBP/USD? I think this pair probably test 1.94 one more time or very close to 1.94 before it fall to below 1.9250 At current price is not attractive to take short, I guess.

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:30 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk //
yes - only for a month or so - to travel around - see the seaside and islands.. tnx for the info!

Bangkok bkk 17:27 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
You'd better use LAN internet to trade from the apartment because the wireless internet, sometime disconnect. Not as good as LAN. Unless you are not in the apartment or travel to somewhere.

------------------------------------------------------
Sofia Kaprikorn 17:20 GMT March 13, 2007
Bangkok bkk 17:12 GMT //
sorry for the offtopic - I have a friend in bangkok teaching English and I will go see him there - can you tell me if there I can use wireless internet to keep watch of my trades on the laptop - or is it easy to get LAN internet to the appartment (I will stay in his little hotel appartment where he pays monthly rent)??

Makassar Alimin 17:23 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 16:58 GMT March 13, 2007

cheers bkk, i share the same view...short with stops above 1.9380 should be good, if everything goes to plan will see 1.91 area soon

Bangkok bkk 17:22 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS 17:19 GMT

Thks. I don't worry about BOJ, I have profitable stop loss for USD/JPY already. Also moderate stop loss for EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF.

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:20 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok bkk 17:12 GMT //
sorry for the offtopic - I have a friend in bangkok teaching English and I will go see him there - can you tell me if there I can use wireless internet to keep watch of my trades on the laptop - or is it easy to get LAN internet to the appartment (I will stay in his little hotel appartment where he pays monthly rent)??

Geneva DS 17:19 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok... yes, you did good... wish u best of luck... still we can go to extreme prices with BOJ , let see... gl

Bangkok bkk 17:12 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DS 17:05 GMT

I am not short AUD/JPY, just an opinion. I carry too many trades at the moment, can not trade this pair for now. Anyway, I don't think we are going to see 94.xx again this week.

For now, still hold short USD/JPY @ 118.08 since Friday, hold short EUR/CHF @ 1.6155 since yesterday, and hold short EUR/JPY @ 154.50

GL. & GT.

Haifa ac 17:10 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Mla evan 16:47 GMT // I am asking about s and p and dow

Geneva DS 17:05 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Bangkok... you can always sell here AUDJPY.. I love this idea, the only thing will be , that you can put the stop at 94.50, just in case we rise first a little bit more than expected... good luck

Bangkok bkk 16:58 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD: This pair should sell on rallies strategy NOT buy on dips anymore.

IMHO.

Bangkok bkk 16:50 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY is going to collapse again. It's not too late to take short this pair from here(91.85) for at least 200 pips JPY profits.

IMHO.

Mla evan 16:47 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Haifa, long contis.

HK Kevin 16:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:39 GMT, I will buy YEN, mean short USD/JPY at 119.80

Haifa ac 16:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Since Friday is tripple witching day for stocks and options should expire towards largest open interest---can anyone guess what should be the most likely level they should gravitate on Friday to make MOST buyers go out losers?

LONDON DANDGEE 16:44 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Is there any hope of a near reversal for EUR/USD

Bangkok bkk 16:44 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
From my system...Euro may be able to test 1.3250-260 again sooner than later. The question is... sustainable or not sustainable? If it's not sustainable, that area should be consider as a good selling opportunity.....

IMHO.

UK Alex 16:39 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
ab// When they stop selling yen to buy it.

HK Kevin 16:39 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Closed my short Cable from 19327 at 1.9315 earlier. Still keep the short EUR

hk ab 16:37 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
when will gold become safe heaven again? LOL

jkt-aye 16:36 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
stop moved to 117.00, then .... zzzzz.

lugano fc 16:36 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
lugano fc 15:28 GMT March 13, 2007
PAR 15:02 GMT March 13, 2007
patience is needed....we havent seen the lows for today imo
1405/1407 (cash price) is an important zone. few days triying to take and close above it but all tryes failed miserabely.
still old my shorts from 1415/20 (future price) from a plunge down to 1350/1360

patience is the name of the game...
take some profit here ;-) 20% reload at 1410 (future price)---

UK Alex 16:33 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Accredited Home down 63.25%

Bangkok bkk 16:32 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY: Another 150 - 200 pips fall is on the way.

GENEVA JFO 16:28 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Eur/usd is now a good sell for 1.3135 n 1.3075 ====
res 1.3230

UK Alex 16:27 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Home builders will feel subprime's pain

Bangkok bkk 16:21 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY - If EUR/USD can not break above 1.3220 resistance, we should see EUR/JPY test below 152.50 by tomorrow. Looking to take profit around 152.50 (if see)

UK Alex 16:16 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Many more U.S. homeowners were unable to keep up with their mortgage payments in the fourth quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Tuesday, with the rate of homes entering the foreclosure process hitting a record 0.54% and the delinquency rate on U.S. home loans leaping to 4.95% from 4.67% three months earlier.
"Although the U.S. economy and job market remain solid, the housing market continued to decelerate in the fourth quarter of 2006. Nationally, house prices increased at a slower rate and the pace of sales and construction activity continued to slow," said Doug Duncan, MBA's chief economist.
The rise was led by subprime mortgages, where delinquencies increased to 13.33% from 12.56%, and FHA loans, which saw a record-high delinquency rate of 13.46%. Trouble in subprime mortgages, made to borrowers with the riskiest credit, has roiled lenders and the stock market in recent days.
Doug Duncan, the MBA's chief economist, said the jump in delinquencies was expected given the housing-market slowdown and that the shakeout in subprime lending should restore equilibrium to that market shortly.

Bangkok bkk 16:13 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY holing short now @ 154.50

---------------------------------------------------
Bangkok bkk 14:17 GMT March 13, 2007
EUR/JPY around 154.40/50 is a good selling opportunity.
If it rebound to that area, I will take short this pair.
This pair is going to test below 152 again....

IMHO.

lugano fc 16:11 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:45 GMT March 13, 2007

these longs could cost you twice (1000) in a week or a couple of weeks....

hk ab 16:10 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
RP//Do you have any entry point for gold longs on your 750 target?

HK Kevin 16:03 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Let's work Cable to 1.9260, the 1.9220

madrid mm 16:00 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Pittsburgh wjs 15:55 GMT March 13, 2007
I just love Hockey. I am a HAB and Flames Fan. 8-) After Mario you Got Sydney!!! Stanley Cup is coming your way soon.

Hope ur euro-usd works out 4 u.

London NYAM 15:58 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
We could get nice confirmation of correlated moves if the SAP (also in a similar pattern) breaks below 1398 low today and the YEN strengthens to below todays 116.47.

I cant believe Lemieux is still skating.

UK Alex 15:56 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:45 GMT March 13, 2007
Will that still apply when the Fed cuts rates in June?

Pittsburgh wjs 15:55 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:01 GMT March 13, 2007
some good news 8-)
The Penguins reached a deal with city, county and state officials on financing for a new arena that will keep them in Pittsburgh, Gov. Ed Rendell said Tuesday. Good old Mario Lemieux

Seems an odd thing for you to celebrate there in madrid! LOL WE of course are very happy about this news..

now on EUR/$$ any good news about this shorting as that is what I am... 0-:)

London NYAM 15:52 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Aye: Good sign with that healthy bounce before crossing 117.20-25. Not out of the woods yet though as the move up from the lows are not clearly correctional in shape (somewhat ambigious).
PAR: Of course you can trade it both ways. You may not want to "Carry" it for too long of course.

Mtl JP 15:49 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:45 / r u saying dlryen to 124 before 110 ?

HK Kevin 15:47 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK 15:33 GMT, OK. short Cable again at 1.9326

PAR 15:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
You can not sell USDJPY long term . . It costs you 50 pips a month and more than 500 a year. Interest rate differentials are just too big Only possible trade is to sell JPY on any rally and stay pemanently long USD .

Athens MK 15:33 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
When 1.9327 level breaks next support will be 1.93 and after that 1.9250 area.... Lets first start with 1.9327 and work our way down.....

London Gooner 15:31 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Manilkara 15:19 GMT March 13, 2007
-
Using stop 1.9380 for risk. But flag would be damaged if 1.9360 breaks.

madrid mm 15:28 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
this is what trading is all about...USD-YEN , Madrid time,
high of 117.77, down all the way to 116.50, then up again to 117.11sh.....

¨You can t stop the waves, but you can learn to surf.¨
J. Kabat-Zinn, meditation expert

lugano fc 15:28 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:02 GMT March 13, 2007


patience is needed....we havent seen the lows for today imo

1405/1407 (cash price) is an important zone. few days triying to take and close above it but all tryes failed miserabely.

still old my shorts from 1415/20 (future price) from a plunge down to 1350/1360

madrid mm 15:23 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Haifa ac 14:57 GMT March 13, 2007

yw

Mtl JP 15:22 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
In reference to MBA's delinquencies report: suggest watching eurchf and dlrchf as possible further signals of risk aversion reaction.

----

funny moments from history: how fast can the pointing arrows change:

..."Yes, the Fed fretted about inflation at its latest meeting. It must. But recall the infamous minutes of November 2000 when the Greenspan team said the economy was growing nicely, and the biggest risk was "heightened inflation pressures".

Within seven weeks, the Fed held an emergency session to slash rates by 0.5pc. The tech-bust was under way.

Governor Edward Gramlich said later: "Everything was pointing up and, all of a sudden, everything started pointing down." - telegraph

jkt-aye 15:21 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
usjy ... all stop done.
now, see if my planned trade works.

Manilkara 15:19 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Gooner

what price will invalidate your view of gbp short??

Ldn Times 15:14 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:02 GMT March 13, 2007

likely to drop more next days/next weeks only guess here around the 115 before anything.

RYD LAILA 15:06 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD is short now

PAR 15:02 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
US stocks recovering thanks to miraculously weaker yen after the us retail sales .

UK Alex 15:02 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Marketwatch Movers & Shakers
Shares of Accredited Home Lenders Holdings (LEND 5.40, -6.00, -52.6%) dropped after the company said it's currently exploring its strategic options. The San Diego mortgage company, which operates in the troubled sub-prime loan category, said it plans to seek additional capital since its available cash resources have been hurt by margin calls under its warehouse and repurchase facilities since the beginning of the year. The company said it's paid about $190 million in margin calls on its facilities since Jan. 1 with two-thirds of that coming since Feb. 15. Accredited Home is also seeking waivers and extensions of certain financial and operating covenants under its credit facilities. The company is also pursuing certain restructuring activities, including workforce reductions. In addition, it's continuing to evaluate the impairment of goodwill established in relation to its acquisition of Aames Investment in the fourth quarter, a condition that makes it unlikely the company will be able to file its Form 10-K by March 16 - the previously indicated deadline.

Haifa ac 14:57 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
"Mortgage Bankers Association will release the fourth- quarter delinquency and foreclosure rates at 12 p.m. New York time."

For some reason I have a feeling this may effect the market

Thanks, madrid!

madrid mm 14:50 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Haifa----
March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Home loan delinquency rates released today by the Mortgage Bankers Association may show an increase for a fourth straight quarter as subprime defaults ripple through the real estate market../..
The Mortgage Bankers Association will release the fourth- quarter delinquency and foreclosure rates at 12 p.m. New York time.

all with a BIG 8-)

Athens MK 14:38 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP/$:

New signal is forming. Looking at the close of the hour to sell as pressure is forming more on cable to retest the 1.9250 low

HK Kevin 14:34 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 12:56 GMT, EUR strong resistance at 1.3230. I don't know whether it will break or not. but short limit order at 1.3215 have been filled, hoping for your t/p, s/l at 1.3246

madrid mm 14:32 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:26 GMT March 13, 2007
8-) thx

London Gooner 14:32 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Cable 1 hour chart danger of potential bearish flag from 1.9433 - resolution will lead to 1.9175 area may be 1.9100 if flag pole is fully projected.

UK Alex 14:26 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:23 GMT March 13, 2007
Don't forget to ask nicely, Haifa.

madrid mm 14:23 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Haifa you will find a nice email address on their site. CONTACT THEM !
8-)

Haifa ac 14:22 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Madrid- I don't care about the numbers- I just want to see if market reacts--that is why I asked for the TIMING!

madrid mm 14:20 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Haifa, i believe you have to pay 4 it according to this site
www.mortgagebankers.org/ResearchandForecasts/ProductsandSurveys/NationalDelinquencySurvey.htm

Bangkok bkk 14:17 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY around 154.40/50 is a good selling opportunity.
If it rebound to that area, I will take short this pair.
This pair is going to test below 152 again....

IMHO.

Haifa ac 14:17 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
the link was
http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=15160f0a-d183-4be2-a97a-0a197795d242

UK Alex 14:15 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
MBA National Delinquency Survey?

Haifa ac 14:14 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Someone quoted this yesterday:

"The survey, out tomorrow, contains data on delinquencies and foreclosures on more than 42 million mortgages serviced by mortgage companies, commercial banks, thrifts and credit unions, broken down into prime, sub-prime, fixed rate and adjustable loans, both nationally and by state, Mr. Sinche said. It is much more detailed than the traditional Federal Reserve survey."

Today is tmw.

Portugal camisa 14:11 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
cable 5th straight day with support at 9280 and resistance at 9340/50 huge battle should originate strong breakout

RIC fxq 14:10 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
no idea of what you are talking about, haifa ac

Haifa ac 14:03 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
What time is that Foreclosure survey released, anyone?!

Bodrum OEE 14:02 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex

I have heard that news - without knowing the reason behind. Thanks. Kind of you (I would like to keep an eye on Citi for a while)

madrid mm 14:01 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
some good news 8-)
The Penguins reached a deal with city, county and state officials on financing for a new arena that will keep them in Pittsburgh, Gov. Ed Rendell said Tuesday. Good old Mario Lemieux

UK Alex 14:00 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE// Citigroup trying to benefit from weak dollar and improving Japanese economy by acquiring Japan's 3rd largest brokerage firm Nikko Cordial.

Plovdiv Gotin 13:58 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
E/$: 1.3224 barier in front of 1.3260. Res1.3233 last connection leading again to 1.3087.GL> ay.

Lahore FM 13:52 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 13:47 GMT March 13, 2007
bid,both gbpusd and gbpjpy.

Bodrum OEE 13:48 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:43 GMT March 13, 2007


Thank you. I appreciate your time.

hong kong seek 13:47 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:08 GMT March 13, 2007
ths alot ...how about gbp ?

Bangkok bkk 13:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY: Repatriation flows for the fiscal year end in Japan are still expected to be strong this week or until early next week.

UK Alex 13:43 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE// Not really. Just saying Citigroup may have more exposure to emerging markets than other firms. I know for a fact that more than half of its profits are derived from investments outsided the US.

Bangkok bkk 13:41 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY and USD/CHF collapse should continue until the end of the week... IMHO.

With USD/CHF collapse, EUR/CHF should test below 1.6000 again in the near-term as a consequence.

Still holding short USD/JPY @ 118.08 and short EUR/CHF @ 1.6155

-----------------------------------------------------------

Bangkok bkk 15:57 GMT March 12, 2007
hk ab 15:53 GMT

ab// I think we might see USD/JPY fall below 115 JPY this week or early next week. Since the JPY cross just start turning around also. The dollar weakness are expected to continue against the EUR, CHF and JPY. Not sure for GBP/USD though.

UK Alex 13:34 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Ldn Times// Accredited Home looks dicey.

Bodrum OEE 13:33 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:51 GMT March 13, 2007


Good day. Are there any specific news about Citi that made you bring it up? Thank you

Ldn Times 13:29 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
New Century to be delisted today by NYSE so to not impact the index selection. Further up we have to look to the New Century industry sector if keeps falling.

Antwerp ML 13:23 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Lahore and all...
Thx for kind words, i think its always best (incl for me of course) to see both ends of the spectrum - gives us chance to look into things better..
My bet is the possible unwinding of risky assets globally and that means a stronger Treasury market and a lower commodity market and a somewhat stronger dollar (euro to 1.3050 in my view) as people send money back to "surer" places...
GOOD LUCK TO ALL

Lahore FM 13:20 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Antwerp ML 13:14 GMT March 13, 2007
ML,your view even if it be opposite to mine is truly respected.i will keep your analysis in mind.i think we might know lots more before the day is out.best of trades sir!

Surabaya Medallion 13:17 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Antwerp ML 13:14 GMT March 13, 2007

Yet the copper is still up from 2.6 per Oz

http://kitcometals.com/

slv sam 13:15 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
eur to 1.33 within 48 hours!GT

Antwerp ML 13:14 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Lahore HI
if i may Id like to differ on your GOLD stance,
i think we're heading to 600 , and that the latest rally is just a bear head fake
I believe worldwide slowdown and possible-end-of YEN carry to determine the price of GOLS, namely lower commodities in general (incl Oil m i see Oil at 50 back)
Good luck
best to you ,
M

jkt-aye 13:14 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
got magnetic level on 5M chart at 117.09.
moved stop to 116.85 for half position (117.00 still there to secure the others).
try to re enter at those # for main target 116.40/20 with stop at 117.25 (use just a little ammo for this plan).
in case target hit first, forget this plan.
hope it works

chicago hl 13:12 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
chicago hl 12:45 GMT March 13, 2007
long cable here 1.9280 s/l


stop to entry 1.9320 now. target 1.9395 intraday

Lahore FM 13:08 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 13:02 GMT March 13, 2007
now 650,it is traight up from here Seek.

PAR 13:07 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Looks as some central banks are supporting USDJPY and defending 116.00 and 116.50 levels .

NY RP 13:06 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
hong kong seek 13:02 GMT March 13, 2007
Gold was overbought dailies on its attempt to close above 681 on the monthly. The correction was expected as Gold enjoys hard runs lower after good strong moves. 750 is next target. GL

hong kong seek 13:02 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 12:36 GMT March 13, 2007
may i know your view on gold ? many ths

The Netherlands Purk 12:59 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Well the e/u made up its mind just now. So expect to see: 13212-13231-13257. If it reaches that stage the 13297 could be challanged.
Interesting.
Dont expect that it will go back under 132 for a few days, but than again maybe the shorters will get lucky....

ABHA FXS 12:57 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD T 1.3084

FXS Team 12:56 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Sell EUR/USD 1.3217 stop 1.3230

ABHA FXS 12:56 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
LONG USDCHF 1.2200 STOP 1.2165 T 1.2344
SHORT EURUSD 1.3190/3200 STOP 3225 T 1.3
SHORT GBPUSD 1.9315 STOP 1.9344 T 1.9200

Lisbon 12:55 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
bye USD

UK Alex 12:51 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:48 GMT March 13, 2007
Citigroup has a lot invested in emerging markets (I think).

madrid mm 12:50 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
so we have
1.32 euro-usd
1.22 usd-chf
116.50 usd-yen

take your pick !!!! Kampo should not be to far , shouldn t it ?

madrid mm 12:48 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:46 GMT March 13, 2007
thx

i just good news on GS -


March 13 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm by market value, said first- quarter profit rose 29 percent to a record, exceeding analysts' highest estimates, on trading gains and investment-banking fees.

Net income climbed to $3.2 billion, or $6.67 a share, in the three months ended Feb. 23 from $2.48 billion, or $5.08, a year earlier, the New York-based company said today in a statement. The average estimate of 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was $4.99 a share.

I wonder if they are making a killing on the short loan business....8-)

UK Alex 12:46 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:41 GMT March 13, 2007
Merrill got downgraded last week on its subprime exposure.

London NYAM 12:46 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.0. February retail sales rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.3%) while the more closely-watched sales, ex-autos, unexpectedly fell 0.1% (consensus 0.3%). With the market increasingly concerned about the pace of economic growth, the weaker than expected data exacerbate ongoing concerns about a slowdown. Bonds, in contrast, have strengthened as the 10-yr note is now up 13 ticks to yield 4.49% as traders price in an improved likelihood of a Fed rate cut.

chicago hl 12:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
long cable here 1.9280 s/l

madrid mm 12:41 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
aren t the big boys, ie GS, merril etc reporting today ?

London NYAM 12:41 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
aye: np I thinks it going to get choppy though (might be good for snipers)
I see 117.20 -117.25 as the resistance above that, if broken, won't bode well for a one-way trade today.

UK Alex 12:39 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) As for Accredited Home (LEND 11.40, -4.38, -27.8%) , shares of the San Diego-based company plunged 28% in the premarket. Accredited Home after said it's seeking more capital and exploring strategic options after paying about $190 million in margin calls since Jan. 1.
The mortgage company, which operates in the troubled subprime loan category, said it plans to seek additional capital. Accredited Home is also seeking waivers and extensions of certain financial and operating covenants under its credit facilities
Keefe Bruyette & Woods on Tuesday downgraded Accredited home to underperform from market perform and slashed its price target to $7 a share from $26 previously.
"Based on our new significantly lower volume and margin assumptions, we estimate that LEND will lose money for the foreseeable future which will likely trigger a liquidity crisis," KBW said in a note to clients.

NY RP 12:36 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USD Index soldiers may be called to protect the fortress. Dollar wants lower but some are not ready to let it go.

Auckland peat 12:36 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
ftr i closed at 116.64

Belgrade 12:34 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Target bellow 115.51 USD/YEN
Target bellow 221 GPB/YEN

UK Alex 12:34 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
76% chance of June rate cut.

Belgrade 12:33 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Hold your Yen shorts! :)

Bahrain Bahrain1 12:31 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Retail sales rose 0.1% consensus 0.3% after 0.0%

London NYAM 12:29 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Is anyone buying the Dollar(vs Yen) on this Forum? If so what targets? Just seems like there are alot of people (including me) holding SHort dollar-Yen...

jkt-aye 12:26 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 17:54 GMT March 12, 2007
NYAM ... agree. i'm on my 2nd short on this pair from 117.84 stop 118.16 looking for 116.40 (my magnetic # on 30M) or 116.20 (1H).
=========

see it on green. stop move at 117.00.
thanks to NYAM, Qindex and Cris for supporting me with a good view.

Plovdiv Gotin 12:24 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
$/Y sup. leding to 117.80--->116.60/53/27/10...115.55 gl.

Bahrain Bahrain1 12:22 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 10:40 GMT March 13, 2007
I think worth a try..... buy at 80/82 SAR at 75. GL all

off order.....8minutes for firework. GL

Miami OMIL (/;-> 12:08 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Short term view eur/usd: The 3200 barrier proves to be a bit to much at this time for the bulls so it is time to take in small profit on longs and let the dust settle. For now 3150-40 is the key support as the indicators reach the O/B level IMHO. Peace and GT

Hong Kong Qindex 12:06 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 22:15 GMT March 12, 2007
USD/JPY : the market is going to test the supporting strength of the barrier at 116.28 // 116.70*.

Plovdiv Gotin 12:04 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
$/Y targets: 118.50-->116.40/115.95/115.85....117.80-->116.68/115.25/15/00....last target 114.25(from 118.85).GL

KL KL 12:01 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Lets face it this currency thing is all stuff now......I mean it used to be USD weakness....today we have Yen strength, Carry trade unwind and Gold + Crude.....etc

All probability and Stop loss is the only way to survive this crazy game!!...LOL

GVI john 11:57 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts and key moving averages...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex Database

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
2000GMT	1.3188	117.61	1.2249	1.9317	1.1703	0.7853	155.10
High	1.3202	118.50	1.2352	1.9433	1.1735	0.7856	155.75
Low	1.3110	117.27	1.2235	1.9253	1.1684	0.7798	154.22
							
Simple mva	basis =>	03/12/2007					
5 day 	1.3149	117.16	1.2253	1.9315	1.1755	0.7792	154.05
10 day	1.3170	117.24	1.2221	1.9409	1.1741	0.7809	154.40
20 day 	1.3152	118.82	1.2293	1.9481	1.1686	0.7842	156.27
50 day 	1.3046	119.91	1.2389	1.9545	1.1741	0.7819	156.42
100 day	1.3035	118.69	1.2319	1.9450	1.1591	0.7804	154.71
200 day	1.2866	117.61	1.2367	1.9064	1.1404	0.7665	151.34

Gen dk 11:56 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Plovdiv Gotin 11:54 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
$/Y: 116.82-->115.15/114.43 main target.

Auckland peat 11:53 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
target $Y = 116.45 being the 161% extension of 118.50 to 117.25
locking in 30 at 116.95 (sold at 117.25)

Spg LR 11:51 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 18:34 GMT March 12, 2007
usd.jpy
sell now , add another sell if rise , tp1 117.30 tp2 116.80
___________________________________

Great Call n Thanks.

ABHA FXS 11:49 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP.USD
WILL MOVE DOWN TO 1.9200/9190 THAN RETURN UP TO BREAK 9333..LET SEE.

CT Cris 11:47 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:22 GMT March 13, 2007
CT Cris 18:34 GMT March 12, 2007
usd.jpy
sell now , add another sell if rise , tp1 117.30 tp2 116.80.


=====
sold at 117.76 ,first target tested , second is coming
==========
2nd target 116.80 tested.

madrid mm 11:47 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
usd-yen
R5: 118.51 12 Mar high
R4: 118.25 hour high
R3: 118 hour low, break area
R2: 117.77 current 13 Mar high
R1: 117.2 12 Mar low, break
S1: 116.74 current 13 Mar low
S2: 116.5 hour low, congestion
S3: 116 day extremes, cong.
S4: 115.55 8 Mar low
S5: 115.16 5 Mar low

UK Alex 11:44 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Some chatter on China reserve diversification is leading to a few big names buying back Yen.

London NYAM 11:41 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY:
Needs a break of support at 116.60-116.66 (.618 rtrace from the lows last week) before a fresh wave of selling should kick in.

UK Alex 11:17 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The Japanese yen on Tuesday gathered renewed strength against major crosses, including the U.S. dollar, the euro and the British pound. The dollar fell 0.5% at 116.98 yen, the euro fell 0.6% at 154.18 yen and the pound slipped 0.7% at 225.58 yen. The move coincided with an extension to the declines seen in U.S. stock market futures.

Ldn Times 11:15 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
As far as I see this eurusd wants to push a test over 1.32

UK Alex 11:12 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Citigroup Inc. Tuesday raised its offer for Nikko Cordial Corp.(8603) by a steep 26% to Y1,700, succumbing to strong market pressure in a move that analysts say could whet the appetite of shareholders pushing for an even higher price.

The boards of both companies have approved the launch of the tender offer at Y1,700, Citigroup and Nikko Cordial said in a joint press release.

The U.S. banking giant last week proposed an offer of Y1,350 a share for Nikko, but was forced to reconsider its plans after Japan's big three stock exchanges decided to keep the scandal-stricken brokerage listed despite its past accounting irregularities.

Ldn Times 11:10 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
getting liquid(ity) zeus?

Ldn Times 11:02 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   

Big
trade surplus overshadows China reform pledge

Ldn Times 11:01 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070312/bs_nm/china_economy_dc;_ylt=AuiGiQRWCIFzRLFiii.wzkO573QA

Auckland peat 11:00 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
breached!

Auckland peat 10:59 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
this 117.25 is quite critical area for $Y

UK Alex 10:55 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Countrywide says subprime turmoil may harm results

UK Alex 10:54 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Troubled subprime lender New Century Financial said on Tuesday it had understated debt owed to Credit Suisse First Boston Mortgage Capital LLC by $500 million on Monday.

The company said the repurchase obligation of its subsidiaries to CSFBMC was about $1.4 billion as of March 9, not $900 million as published.

Portugal camisa 10:53 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
5th straigth day with 9280 provideing support for cable...

Ldn Times 10:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Chinese 1yr bond made 7 months high crossing approach today.

Auckland peat 10:44 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
kaprikorn, no excuses necessary, ever. everyone pulls their own trigger.

UK Alex 10:43 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 00:11 GMT March 13, 2007
Yes, imbalance in supply and demand is obviously pushing prices up. Fundamental causes are most likely to be increase in overall population due to large number of immigrants from Eastern Europe and more people living on their own. Too many people are now relying on their homes to provide a pension for them when they retire. The buy-to-let crowd has really swollen in the last few years due to new tenant laws making eviction easier. However, those who have been buying second properties to rent out have a new problem which is rental incomes are barely sufficient to cover mortgage repayments after recent interest rate rises and they are depending on capital appreciation alone. Not a good situation to be in if you ask me.

Auckland trotter 10:40 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:18 GMT March 13, 2007
Now I have sell on the EUR/USD.

Bedtime for me - glgt

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:40 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
I think worth a try..... buy at 80/82 SAR at 75. GL all

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:38 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 10:36 //
hello - pls excuse me for that post last week when I wrote on your long EURUSD position at 1.3080... my view proved wrong..

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:36 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 10:20 GMT March 13, 2007
Something is developing, yes...smart money buying dips and holding as USDCAD is going up. However, it lasts longer than I thought(and still may be wrong). Holding.

Watchout of yesterdays low at 80....brk there we might see 1.1640/50. Take care and Good luck.

Auckland peat 10:36 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
trotter - i am looking for a 'c' wave down from 1.3192.

Philadelphia Caba 10:34 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
The pullback in JPY and CHF seen Monday represented a long overdue reality check to the wave of euphoria driving the return of carry trades, notes Barclays Capital. The bank says it looks for the currencies involved in such trades to have a roller-coaster ride over the rest of March and each time there is a pause the collective nerves of the market will crack as they did two weeks ago. BarCap adds that the charts call for a protracted period of range trading at lower levels, and while is doesn't think EUR/JPY will head back to 151.00, it would not like to downplay the risk of such a decline.

hk revdax 10:27 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Maribor 10:20 GMT //i think $/CAD will go down but will go up first to touch everyone's nerve before sliding on its a**ss to the south.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:26 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds.....
12.30GMT U.S. Retail Sales .....
Hold your chairs and fasten your seat belt. lol
GL

PAR 10:24 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
After Al Gore s visit all european politicians think that the environment can be saved by raising taxes. Nothing could be more wrong. Technology should be the solution but technology doesnt pay european burocrats .

Maribor 10:20 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 10:00 GMT March 13, 2007

Something is developing, yes...smart money buying dips and holding as USDCAD is going up. However, it lasts longer than I thought(and still may be wrong). Holding.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:18 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
ZEW 5.8 ag 2.9 expectation of 3.2

madrid mm 10:10 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
DC NewsNet 10:06 GMT March 13, 2007
thnx,

DC NewsNet 10:06 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   

Paulson hosts Conference on Capital Markets in Washington. 12:00 GMT

slv sam 10:00 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
abvious weakness for US$ against cad! something is developing??GT

madrid mm 09:59 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:51 GMT March 13, 2007

lol PAR, i have to admit you have a very clear voice and IMHO you are useful even if I don't agree with you all the time. And let me tell you, AIMHO, we need people like you who make us wonder whether the emperor is wearing no clothes. 8-)

I believe Paulson is speaking today @ 13h00 gmt but i don t know about what and where he is..... If someone can tell me. Thx

hk revdax 09:57 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:51 GMT//i do want the world stock market to crash so that poor chaps like me can have a brand new redistribution of wealth.

PAR 09:51 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Very closely . I would even suggest BOJ could become vigilant . A yen below 115.00 and world stock markets will crash and nobody wants that .

madrid mm 09:48 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:40 GMT March 13, 2007
how closely, i would like to know please ?
8-)

Gent Michael 09:46 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
USDJPY looks ready for move below 113 this month

PAR 09:40 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
A marginally higher yen immediately lead to declines in japanese exporters shares; So BOJ watching market closely and some intervention may be needed.

Sofia mik 09:29 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
GBP Trade Balance -6.2B

Auckland trotter 09:18 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 09:03 GMT March 13, 2007
Yes, but to trade there must me an understanding of the market.
I just try to understand the price at a given time during ‘the active market time’, and trade accordingly. As my understanding grows so does my profits.

Lol

Lahore FM 09:09 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
long gold at 650.00.

madrid mm 09:07 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
The International Energy Agency kept its 2007 world oil demand forecast virtually unchanged and warned stocks in industrialised nations of the OECD could be heading for their largest first quarter stock draw in over 10 years.
The world energy watchdog said in its monthly report for February it sees 2007 world oil product demand at 86.0 mln bpd, a downward revision of only 0.01 mln bpd from its last report.
On inventories, it said preliminary data suggest OECD stocks have fallen by over 1.26 mln bpd in the first two months of the year thanks to tighter OPEC supply and colder temperatures in the US in February.
'While stock levels in key products such as gasoline and distillate are on a par with last year, and crude stocks only appear tight in Europe, these are inventory levels that were associated with higher and sharply rising prices last summer,' said the agency. afx

Auckland trotter 09:05 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 08:42 GMT March 13, 2007
Yes I see 1.3130 as R1 on the daily pivots and 1.3131 as the pivot on the 1 week 3 year chart.

Would be nice to see your analysis references.

madrid mm 09:03 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Euro/Swiss Franc Relationship

hk revdax 09:03 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 08:54//you never know...the mkt can do anything and it will do anything. you may be right...or wrong...and right again...and wrong again...and....and...lol

Gen dk 08:59 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 08:58 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Market Focus on Tuesday: Retail sales, specifically ex-gasoline and ex-auto, will define the latest outlook for consumer strength, which has so far held up despite troubles in housing and manufacturing. Blmrg

We have the closely watched Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator coming.

Let´s rock n roll, and expect the unexpected!!!!.

Syd 08:56 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
High Yielders Hit By Subprime Jitters RBC Capital Markets

The high-yielders and carry trades are paying the price for subprime jitters, says RBC Capital Markets. It points to the rally in the JPY and a sell off in NZD and AUD, despite generally positive economic news. "The news caused a general sell off in high yielding assets, though corrections in AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY do appear to becoming generally shallower and short-lived," the bank says

Auckland trotter 08:54 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 08:31 GMT March 13, 2007
Yes, me at the moment. I have fallen into the same trap I did a few days ago - not looking at the shorter charts upper trend line.

Obviously the lesson was not learnt, but now have some reinforcement.

On the other hand, I still see some up movement from my previous posting.

Will see what happens with the opening of the UK market.

slv sam 08:44 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
again today chances are 50/50 up or down.if
down max 3060 if up max 3250 imo!GT

Auckland peat 08:42 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
lol revdax
i think you could be right trotter.... but stop would have to be below 1.3130 as this could be hit imo.
maybe buy $Chf at 1.22 flat?

Sofia mik 08:34 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 08:17

I am now long usdchf 2245
gl/gt

hk revdax 08:31 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter//One of us must be reading the chart upside down....LOL

hk revdax 08:17 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Any buyer of $/CHF out there?

Auckland trotter 08:08 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 07:50 GMT March 13, 2007
Up pressure I have for the EUR/USD to the R1 weekly pivot 1.3191, which is an interesting level on the 4 hour 20 day chart.

Auckland trotter 07:50 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Have a buy for the EUR/USD.
The price is above the 23.6% fib on the 1 day 6 month chart around 1.3158.
RSI (14) and (5) coming up from oversold.
RSI (5) oversold on the 1 hour 5 day chart.
Daily pivot is 1.3165.
M3 pivot on the 1 week 3 year chart is 13161.

Still looking at the up trend, with fundamentals due out later with the consensus looking in favour of the EUR.

hk revdax 07:08 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
The introductory economics courses I learned in the US have led me to believe that labor wages will climb up in order to catch up with inflation which this time has been expressed in the housing market worldwide. However, according to the government reports, there is nothing to be worried about and this aspect of wage pressure does not seem to have been carried in the news coverage. Thus everything seems OK, and that houses prices can go the moon and it is a sign of global prosperity.

hk revdax 07:04 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
A highly quantitative Chinese economist has demonstrated that, in trading with the US, China enjoys the imbalance figures while the US enjoys the profit. If what he said is true, then the US politicians in the White House, who graduated from departments of 'home' economics where students learn to make cakes and coctails, will have a hard time pushing for trade sanctions and .... invariably understanding what this economist has to say.

madrid mm 06:59 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

WSJ: Amid mounting defaults in the market for subprime mortgages, some big banks, led by HSBC, and mortgage companies are striking out in their efforts to wrest compensation from originators of those high-risk, high-return loans.

US-sub-prime mortgage market participant Accredited Home Lenders (whose stock fell 28% on Monday) reported by Reuters at 04:17gmt to be 'pursuing strategic options'..'considering raising additional capital to enhance liquidity' and 'seeking waivers and extensions of waivers of certain financial and operating covenants'.

ECB Board Member Tumpel Gugerell speaking in Washington last night doesn't comment on economy/ECB policy. Says larger capital markets in Eurozone would boost growth potential (spurring creation of innovative start-up firms with beneficial effects on growth and productivity).

FT article, "The yen beckons China's dollars" by Fred Bergsten, a noted USD bear, writes: China reportedly wants to diversify large portions of its FX reserves. Diversification into European currencies would be a mistake. By contrast, diversification of several hundred billion USD into YEN would promote both systemic and Chinese national interests.

Riksbank Eva Srejber also in Washington says inflation 'on target'…have had low inflation for some time'. Presuming interest rates rise modestly, inflation will be at our target, 2%, in 2 years'. Wouldn't be drawn on near term policy decisions.

BoJ Kiyohiko Nishimura, in Nikkei, says BoJ needs forward looking policy and needs to adjust interest rates carefully-BBG

UK RICS house price balance falls to 24.0 in 3 months to February, its weakest since May 2006, down from 28.0

NZ Retail sales for January +0.5%m/m, vs exp +0.2%. It came in6.9%y/y, vs exp +5.2%.Markets came to "more life" in late Asia trading, as Cross/JPY were sold broadly, started with NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/JPY sales with talks of selling on back of JPY carry trades unwinding, on risk aversion on concerns over the US subprime woes and its impact on mortgage lenders and equities markets (though Asia stocks stable).

Market players are already nervous about the possible GBP/JPY muscle plays coming out of "Russia/ East Europeans", who bought huge yesterday, before selling it all the way down from 229.50-70 to 225.85 lows. True to form, GBP/JPY did not disappoint, dipping, not before it rose briefly as USD/JPY bought to 117.55-57, before coming off to day lows of 117.33 and GBP/JPY to day lows of 226.20, GBP/USD to day lows of 1.9275 from 1.9331, further weighed by the weaker than expected UK RICS house price of +24, low since May 06.

USD/JPY, Cross/JPY rose earlier in Asia on fixing, toushin, Urisdashi demand to highs of 117.78, same high as fixing rate, before coming off sharply to 117.50 on good Japanese trust, custodian, agricultural and sec houses, Tokyo exporters selling.

FT article on China reserves seen weighing on Cross/JPY, together with concerns on US sub prime lenders, markets, triggering some cross/JPY sales

NZD off 0.6991 highs hit after strong retail sales, as funds sold NZD/JPY, more stops blw 81.00.

EUR still capped above 1.3200-10, weighed by EUR/JPY selling interest to sub 155, stoploss blw 154.20.

:Nikkei -113pts or 0.66% at 17,178. JGBs little changed, with 10-yr yield -0.005% at 1.605%., eye US Retail sales data.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 117.30/117.78, EUR/USD 1.3169/1.3196, GBP/USD 1.9275/1.9331, USD/CHF 1.2241/1.22601, AUD/USD 0.7826/0.7877, NZD/USD 0.6921/0.6991.

CT Cris 06:22 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 18:34 GMT March 12, 2007
usd.jpy
sell now , add another sell if rise , tp1 117.30 tp2 116.80.


=====
sold at 117.76 ,first target tested , second is coming.

Syd 03:51 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
DJ NZD/USD has "gradually ground lower" from peak of 0.6987 hit after stronger-than-expected January retail sales, but set to finish up for day, says Bank of New Zealand currency strategist Danica Hampton. Tips support overnight at 0.6930 with initial resistance at key psychological 0.7000, approach of which likely to bring in some profit-taking; adds while there's a range of local data on offer this week, NZD will remain more vulnerable to "bigger picture" in terms of global equities, renewal of positive sentiment toward carry trades. NZD/USD last at 0.6954.

Sydney MK 02:47 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Sydney,

The US equity market is merely reflecting the market mechanics of an unwinding move. It innitially fell over 850 points, has now retraced some of these losses as it consolidates for a deeper retracement.....excess liquidity may also be an issue, as the market is torn between the lesser evil of the two, US equities and long term treasuries. The dead cat will always bounce, depending from how high you drop it

Syd 02:45 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 02:30 GMT that leads me to the conclusion its not the real market moving it, probably the plunge gang ? or that kind of crowd . Strange the way everything is calm all of a sudden wouldnt you say , we are just tadpoles

LILNK

Sydney ACC 02:30 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:08 GMT March 13, 2007
What confuses me is that the US stock market has risen every day for the last week and yesterday despite the news getting worse on teh sub-prime market the Dow and S&P 500 rose by 0.3%.

Syd 02:08 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
WSJ(3/13) Subprime Fallout May Sink Sales Of New Homes
The rapid unraveling of the subprime-mortgage industry is stirring new concerns about the already weak housing market.

A report released yesterday by Credit Suisse analyst Ivy Zelman forecast that credit tightening for financially stretched borrowers will lead to a 20% drop in new-home sales in 2007, to about 890,000, as buyers find it more difficult to borrow for homes.

Coupled with a general waning in demand for housing and the exodus of speculators from the market, Ms. Zelman expects that credit tightening will cause housing starts to drop 35% to 45% through this year and into 2008 from their peak annual rate of 1.8 million units in January 2006.

While subprime loans -- or loans to people with weak credit -- are often concentrated among entry-level buyers, Ms. Zelman says credit tightening "will affect the entire housing food chain."

If people selling an entry-level home can't find buyers, it often means they can't move up and buy a pricier home. Ms. Zelman, who derives much of her research from surveys with private builders and mortgage originators, also expects rising delinquencies among stretched borrowers to create a flood of foreclosures in the coming months that could add as much as 20% additional supply to the existing inventory.

Syd 01:46 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
DJ ASIA FUND VIEW: Australia Pension Money May Head Toward Asia
Traditionally, the bulk of Australians' investment capital has happily stayed at home. Now, more of the money may be moving into other markets in Asia.

With private-equity buyouts threatening to shrink Australia's own A$1.4 trillion (about US$1.1 trillion) share market, fund managers are ready to start shipping billions of investment dollars overseas, and Asian stocks are high on their shopping list, equity strategists and investment managers say.

Local investment funds increased by A$142 billion to A$1.1 trillion last year, driven by a pension-fund pool that financial consultant Watson Wyatt Worldwide says is growing faster than anywhere else in the world. Many fund managers who were once interested only in the biggest companies on the Australian Stock Exchange are looking further afield to invest those burgeoning sums, says Gerard Satur, head of Australasian equities at UBS.

"Now, day by day, more and more fund managers are telling us they want to start looking for opportunities in Asia," Satur says. "Over the past 18 months, their mandates have become a little bit more flexible, and they are allowed to trade more in stocks outside Australia."
In a report on the equity outlook, UBS forecast that total new demand for Australian listed stocks will be A$42 billion in 2007, while net new supply -- new issues minus the buyouts -- will be A$30 billion, leaving a gap of A$12 billion. UBS strategist David Cassidy says fund managers will struggle to find enough diversity in the local market -- already dominated by financial companies, property trusts and resources -- as buyout firms focus their sights on industrial companies.

"A lot of the industrial market could disappear within the next six months," Cassidy told journalists Thursday. "We'd have a market that is even more skewed toward sectors we are already massively overweight, which I don't think is particularly healthy. . . . So I don't think it is surprising that fund managers are looking to reserve the right to invest offshore."

Sydney ACC 01:36 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Uncertainty over the effect that higher interest rates are having on the housing market grew yesterday as signs that property prices are losing steam clashed with more upbeat reports.

House prices last month grew at their slowest pace since May, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reported yesterday, after the fourth month in which the market has decelerated.

However, the lacklustre figures contrasted with a report last week from Halifax, the bank, which showed that average prices rose by 1.8 per cent in February — the sixth gain of more than 1 per cent in the past seven months.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article1505625.ece

Auckland peat 01:03 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
Cullen (NZ FinMin) said the official cash rate would remain the main tool of monetary policy despite the Reserve Bank governor talking about possible supplementary measures to manage inflationary pressures.

"I want to stress there are no formal proposals on any of this yet and any policy option would need broad support," he said.

Philadelphia Caba 00:14 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
NZ market underpricing odds of further monetary tightening, but this probability expected to increase in coming weeks aided by solid economic data, reassessment of recent RBNZ policy statement, says Westpac Bank; but adds if global market turbulence still has further to run, NZD rise may be more of a "slow grind" punctuated by sharp dips rather than dramatic move. Notes while disappointing U.S. data may be temporary positive for NZD, growing concerns about U.S. economic outlook will pressure currencies linked to global economic cycle, such as NZD, over time.

Sydney ACC 00:11 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:58 GMT March 12, 2007
Surely the major problem is that thyere are simply note enough residences available to house the number of people seewking a property. The building industry has not been able to supply sufficient homes for the number of people seeking a home. The population has been swelled by the great influx of migrants into the country over the last few years. Increasing interest rates will not solve that part of the problem.

Syd 00:09 GMT March 13, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK:China May Hike Bk Reserve Ratio In 2 Wks -Westpac
China's monster trade surplus for February should "precipitate a stern response" from policy makers with another rise in reserve requirement ratio likely announced in next fortnight, says Westpac's senior international economist, Huw McKay. Adds China response could also include export subsidy cut, lower import tariffs, faster CNY appreciation, welfare system boost to reduce precautionary savings. Westpac has brought forward forecast rate hike by 2 months, raised year-end reserve ratio forecast to 12.5%, maintains CNY appreciation rate at 4% annualized, "but upside risks are crystallizing", he says