Forex Forum Archive for 04/1/2007

Syd 23:53 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
PRESS RELEASE: S&P Reports Rise In Arrears On Australian Res. Mortgage Loans
MELBOURNE (Standard & Poor's) April 2, 2007--Residential mortgage loans underlying prime Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) transactions that are in arrears by more than 30 days rose by 10 basis points to 1.25% in January 2007, according to statistics published by Standard & Poor's Rating Services.

The report, Australian RMBS Arrears Statistics, for the month ending Jan. 31, 2007, provides a comprehensive analysis of arrears statistics on loans underlying Australian RMBS. Residential mortgage loans funded through RMBS exceed A$146 billion, which is a substantial portion of the residential mortgage market in Australia.

UK Alex 23:53 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
http://www.boj.or.jp/en/type/stat/boj_stat/tk/gaiyo/tka0703.pdf

hk ab 23:52 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
will focus on dlr/jpy and dlr/cad short this week.

hk ab 23:51 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
everyone is waiting the spike to exit....

hk ab 23:48 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
moment of truth to tell whether the yen crosses will lose the grip from boj hand and starts the pre-determined avalanche.

hk ab 23:44 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
eur suffers from triple cousins, maybe all the cousins....

eur/jpy, eur/chf, eur/gbp....
followed by eur/cad, eur/aud, eur/nzd.

Sofia mik 23:18 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
The week ahead will be very important for near-term currency market trends and could also set the tone for the next few weeks as a whole.

The Japanese Tankan report is released on Monday local time and will be important in determining sentiment towards the Japanese economy with the yen much better placed to secure underlying capital inflows if there is a firm reading for the index.

This week is also the start of the new Japanese fiscal year when large Japanese funds make their investment decisions. Over the past year, low domestic interest rates have triggered substantial capital outflows from Japan in search of high yields. Retail interest in overseas funds is likely to remain strong, but the Japanese institutions may be less convinced and cut back their overseas weightings which would undermine the dollar. These reservations will increase if there is a strong reading for the Tankan index.

As far as the US economy is concerned, the US ISM index which is due for release on Monday, has been a key economic indicator over the next few months. A solid reading this month above a 52-53 range would ease market fears over the manufacturing sector while a figure near or below 50.0 would reinforce unease over the US economy. The employment and prices components will also be watched closely in the ISM index.

The US employment report is scheduled for release on Friday and the data will have a very important impact on inflation, growth expectations and the dollar. As far as the immediate reaction is concerned, the situation will be very unusual as most global markets are on holiday with Friday also an official holiday in the US, although the bond market will be open for an abbreviated session. This lack of liquidity could produce a very erratic and volatile reaction to the payroll data if it is some distance from market expectations. The US housing sector will also remain under close scrutiny during the week.

There are two important central bank interest rate decisions due with the Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of England due to announce the rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Both banks will consider the possibility of a further increase in interest rates.
__________________
Analysis by Investica LTD

Sydney ACC 23:17 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:56 GMT April 1, 2007
Comm Bank forecast retail sales +0.5% and building approvals +1.0% versus market consensus of 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. They've been pretty good forecasting Aussie data recently.
My forecasting hasn't been good recently but here goes. There's a double no touch and other options in place bettwen the figure and 25 thatn should keep a ceiling on Aussie today. Nonetheless if this data comes out on the high side it might encourage Aussie bulls and exporters to load up owing to a gradual increase in snetiment that Aussie will head towards 82 cents. Exporters, particularly are short having with others been caught by the rapid appreciation of the AUD over the last month. If it breaks then the move up from there will be rapid.
Downside limited because owing to the above so range on the day here in Asia 0.8075/00, certainly on this scenario insufficient return to warrant the risk in doing anything.

St. Annaland Bob 23:15 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   

Tsunami warning

Syd 23:13 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD Needs To Go Below 0.71 To Hurt Bulls -BNZ

NZD/USD will need to go below 0.7100 to dent Kiwi sentiment, though given "the speculative community is exceptionally long," further gains to be hard to come by, says Bank of NZ strategist Danica Hampton; thinks 0.7200 will be formidable hurdle early in week, notes speculative net long positions rose around 40% in March, which limiting upside.

Philadelphia Caba 23:11 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
a lot of analysis see .82 as target .... it's seems like sure bet .. but itsn't good to see sure bets..

Syd 23:10 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Australian Bureau: Concern Solomon Tsunami Could Hit E Coast

St. Annaland Bob 23:10 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Tsunami???

Mtl JP 23:07 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC / and Syd's 22:59 pullback should be a reasonable load up area for 82+, PGoF willing...

Syd 22:59 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 22:53 GMT looking to the data this week , but looking for a pull back towards 7950 area in the not too distant future.

Philadelphia Caba 22:56 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
re aud: ACC we have Retail Sales and Building Approvals data due at 21:30 est..do you think it's non-event?

Sydney ACC 22:53 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:18 GMT April 1, 2007
Support looking strong at 0.8060, tried to break that here and offshore Friday night, however, whenever it got close it rallied strongly back into the eighties.
Kiwi looks a bit heavy this morning, however, that one is able to rally without warning.
While Kiwi has retraced from 0.7210 to a low of 0.7088, Aussie hasn't done much.
Given such negative sentimernt on USD its hard to see any meaningful retracement from here for either one at least for today in Asia.
Whats your view if any?

Syd 22:52 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Tsunami Reportedly Hits Solomon Islands Town -Police

Lahore FM 22:40 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 19:49 GMT April 1, 2007
usdjpy alos ripe for a drop.now trading 117.44.
--
usdjpy seems to be up on an impulsive wave.may rise to 118.20.

Syd 22:18 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
AUD Suffering Bullish Exhaustion - Suncorp

Australian dollar appears to be suffering from bullish exhaustion as it struggles to make and sustain new highs above 0.8100 vs USD, says Suncorp Metway's currency strategist Peter Pontikis: AUD's failure to mount Friday's 11-year high suggests pair may struggle to sustain trading above 0.8100. Wednesday's RBA rate decision will be closely watched, though with a 4.25 cent AUD rally already having run its course on changing rate hike expectations, the story is already looking 'old.'

Sofia mik 22:16 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
pittsburgh pa
gbp/cad ,eur/cad are still on pressure to down move, is it happens ,us/cad will go down too very fast.
imho
blgt

pittsburgh pa 22:10 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
buying the USD/CAD for a target of 1.1572

Any Takers?

Halifax CB 22:09 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 21:33 GMT April 1, 2007
Heard it as well, but the move hasn't been finalized as to timing. OTOH, it may not be a huge deal, as reportedly some 60% of oil sales are in non-dollar currencies. LINK to a relevant FT article you may find of interest. FWIW, they still have to import gas, I wonder what currency they use for that...

Sofia mik 22:06 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
GVI john
Many tanxs, wish you profitable week and all forum members!

pittsburgh pa 22:04 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
any thoughts on USD/CAD for day high?

USA BAY 21:58 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
London AL,

If you don't like Ct cris analysis, you don't have to follow or agree with it. This is a friendly forum, not a forum to insult others by calling them stupid. Mind your words.

GVI Forex Trading Tools 21:40 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Month ahead GVI calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

FW CS 21:33 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Saw something about Iran not going to accept $ for Oil but Euros now. Don't know when. Only saw one snipit on it does not seem to be getting much press coverage. To me that is a significant event if true.

GVI john 21:23 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
GVI Daily chart points, moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, Pivot points etc...

GVI Forex Database 21:11 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI Forex..

London AL 21:03 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 20:06 GMT April 1, 2007
usd.jpy
=====
buy at 117.40-50 tp 118.00
-----------------------------
IT WILL NEVER MAKE IT TO 116.80 EVEN.WHAT STUPID ANALYSIS WE HAVE HERE AGAIN.

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:29 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:23 GMT April 1, 2007 || It is part of the master plan that no threaded conversations shall be offered on this forum. These shortcomings are generally compensated by the abundance of flavors and colors which give (by design) the reader a cinematic experience. A real pity, come to think of it, for we should all know that black and white prints give much more detail!

CT Cris 20:06 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
usd.jpy
=====
buy at 117.40-50 tp 118.00

Lahore FM 20:03 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:48 GMT April 1, 2007
you have got mail as promised.

Lahore FM 20:00 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
eujpy and gbpjpy to keep a bias to the upside unless below 156.50 and 230.

Lahore FM 19:55 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
eurusd and gbpusd targets for present bull run as posted friday.

Lahore FM 19:50 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
the early drop of usdcad on thursday and friday shud have been an advance warning for all usd bulls.it was correctly noted by slv Sam.

Lahore FM 19:49 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy alos ripe for a drop.now trading 117.44.

Lahore FM 19:48 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
the close on eurusd in 1 hour and 12 minutes will be the daily and weekly and monthly close for friday.likely to be above 1.3367 from what it is trading at now.this can effectively turn the market mood in extremely bullish euro mode.

Sofia mik 15:55 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
http://www.swissinfo.org/eng/politics/detail/Swiss_urged_to_stay_out_of_declining_EU.html?siteSect=111&sid=7673928&cKey=1175343751000

London NYAM 12:30 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn, always a pleasure.:
I just wonder though glancing at those charts if it doesnt also suggest that they (the noncomms) are also frequently wrong about the direction, while as you say the market is right since it is what it is.
It does seem useful in knowing whet their net stratagies are as players, but there are other players that will move the market wih their flows of demand/supply. These other players may or may not be correct depending on your time frame but their views need to be addressed ti get a better picture of the market expectations vs reality.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:48 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:30 //
I was just thinking of our last conversation - and here u r..
true on what u just posted..

I was reading a lot on COT analysis and thought about how the information flows are distributed..
- we believe that big names like GS, ML etc have the best info - but small specs who "scalp" can't have this info.. so we try to trade using tech analysis and believe the market is right

-- however what caught my attn was in an article that was referring to COT strength - for example if Non-comm are net short GBP 3000 contracts while the net shorts are let' say 3500 - this means that there is a very strong consensus - ergo -- big specs have some info - which is either very good or they believe so very strongly...
.. so my idea was that while we can't buy the info the big ones have we have some clue trough the COT report (however a very lagging in time one..)

London NYAM 10:30 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
I just wanted to post regarding a comment made by UK Alex. In spite of Como, as I would not put myself in the scalper-group and since I usually am looking for short term trends (100pip+ moves) that align with my medium term view. My medium term view is that the volatility in markets is increasing because global risk assessments are being called into question.
From “America’s Bubble Economy”(Davis Weidemer et al. 2006):
“While it’s true that perceived value is the only value matters when buying or selling in a market place, it also true that, sooner or later, you cannot fool all the people all of the time.”
Indeed, it is the perceptions in the marketplace for forex that are being discussed on this forum. And they provide a ‘forum’ to engage in an attempt to assess these perceptual changes and their effect and influence on price direction and behavior.
If one believes, as I do, that there is a series of bubbles in the global economy that are potentially risky and potentially linked through international financial flows, the medium in which this will occur is through exchange rates. This has tremendous importance for flows and prices. You can still scalp these movements but some traders choose to understand these forces to better prepare for price action as well.
Which brings me to Alex’s comment regarding opinions on the forum:

“…there are two factors that make bubbles hard to see: 1]Esoteric economists (or techies) are often too busy dissecting the trees to notice that the forest is on fire; and 2] Any analysis by the financial community, both public and private, rarely amounts to more than a sales pitch. People, who have financial interests in making sure you continue to believe in the value of their assets, are often not the most reliable sources of accurate information.” But they are useful indicators of psychology. One contributor on this forum, for example, always contributes when the market pauses during a bout of dollar-yen weakness. Its usually a decision point for the market of speculators as to whether to hold their shorts or to cash in…And then when the market momentum slows in his favor he/she pops back on again. Ill have to research to see how good a contrary indicator he/she is.
gl in the new week.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:17 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
“I assume that markets are always wrong.”

George Soros

Soros’s other famous quote was, “You can’t be enough of a pig when you are right.”
----
interesting quotes, aren't they?

Bodrum OEE 08:03 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:23 GMT April 1, 2007

Doubt very much there are people here having any negative dollar positions built, I mean serious ones.

---------

Good morning,

How would you qualify serious ones? Exposure (i.e. % of capital) or figure wise?

Thank you

Syd 07:36 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
IMM specs raise net short dollar position - CFTC
NEW YORK, March 30 (Reuters) - Currency speculators raised their net short dollar position and boosted their positions in favor of the New Zealand dollar to a record high, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

LINK

Como Perrie 07:23 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Hey what series of comments seen here. For what this modernity has come to I do see long lines of desks and micro traders aka scalpers and brokers that like to call em traders talking about fundamental, news, market trends while not having any position lasting over 1 or 2 hours at most. This is a mental sickness imvho. If you trade so short term just don't think as there's nothing to think of.

Doubt very much there are people here having any negative dollar positions built, I mean serious ones.

Bodrum OEE 06:34 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
HK

Hello RF@,

I was following up the story I posted I think on Friday it was regarding Turkey's prime minister Recep T. Erdogan attempting to secure the relase of female UK army officer with Iranian counterparts.

It is a totally different story who should apologize for what.

I disagree with the way Iranians act, thinking the world is a closed society in which they set the stage behind the scene and officers apologize one after another.

We shall also hope to see in proof whether the UK government should too apologize for illegal border intrusion (or in that region starting to make the habit of it for that matter).

I wish you a good day.

HK RF@ 06:02 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
Correction:

menauposal read menopausal

HK RF@ 05:59 GMT April 1, 2007 Reply   
.

Bodrum OEE 18:35 GMT March 31, 2007

It is Iran that should apologize to Britain, for dressing a young female soldier with TRASH CLOTHES making her look like a post menauposal Russian BABA-YAGA.