Forex Forum Archive for 04/02/2007

Syd 23:57 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
HOT TOPIC: Don't Get Carried Away
By Rosalind Mathieson


SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--It has been a fairly robust 24 hours for the carry trade, but things may get a bit patchier as the week unfolds.

The Australian dollar and the British pound have led the way against both the U.S. dollar and the yen, in part as markets mull the likely outcome of central bank meetings this week. The Australian dollar hit a 10-year high of US$0.8181 overnight, for example, as bets on a Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike tomorrow have shifted to slightly above 50-50.

The New Zealand dollar has also been strong, while the U.S. dollar has held up against the yen despite some tepid U.S. data and the usual busload of worries including the subprime market, tensions with Iran and now a potential trade spat with China, on which the U.S. relies heavily to buy U.S. dollar assets.

But the carry trade may lose a bit of its luster - even just temporarily - later in the week.

The Australian dollar looks a tad over-stretched and at risk of a pullback if the RBA doesn't lift rates another 25 basis points early tomorrow.

The same goes for the pound, where gains are based on the fairly tenuous theory that the Bank of England has been prepared to surprise with rate hikes in the past and so could again this week.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to lift rates as its next meeting on April 26 and could even point further to non-rate mechanisms to cool the economy and prices; RBC Capital Markets notes the recent rise in fixed mortgage rates in New Zealand could compel the RBNZ to hold off hiking further in this cycle.

The U.S. dollar is still getting some yield-related demand but the negatives are stacking up and it is approaching a big one in the form of payrolls data Friday. As this column has said before, payrolls prints need to err on the notably strong side to give the dollar much of a lift, and the risk is the data lead markets to renew expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.

The point is not that the carry trade is substantially at risk. Neither is the point that the carry trade doesn't still have value - the rate gap between Japan and the rest of the world will remain wide. The RBA would be likely to act in May if it doesn't hike this month, for example.

Rather, the markets could just be coming due for another period of short-term (and modest) carry trade unwinding, which would then present a more attractive entry point to get back in.

Caribbean! Rafe... 23:43 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
quito_ecuador_valdez 21:54 GMT April 2, 2007

You should be growing tilapia, it makes more money than picking coffee beans, tilapia is like white gold!

Dallas GEP 23:12 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Longed AUD/NZD 1.1280 with 1.1250 stop, target 1.1340

Philadelphia Caba 23:07 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
sexy bank: RBA's decision-market consensus is unchanged 6.25%, but names like Deutsche, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are all calling for a 25bp hike..

Syd 23:01 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Real data means no rate rise
THE 'experts' have given Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens permission to lift the official interest rate. The data has not.The graphs capture the reality. Retail sales are growing at a solid but not threatening pace. Approvals for private sector houses actually remain weak.

The 'head of steam' contention rests on a big jump in sales in the latest month. But that is all based on seasonal adjustment, at a very dodgy time.

While approvals saw a big jump in apartments. But coming back from a very depressed level.

It would be 'courageous' to base an interest rate hike on this sort of data, ahead of the real inflation figures later this month.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,21492879-664,00.html

USA Zeus 22:45 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the yen desk is back from a breather and ready for some action soon.

GL GT

Sydney ACC 22:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 22:29 GMT April 2, 2007
Can't see the trade figures making much difference.
I believe the major trading banks are split on whether we get a rate rise tomorrow. Given the sentiment in the market I think they will move.
Aussie continues to flex its muscles, last night in London the sell orders were quickly taken out there won't be much importer selling around today. With the trend very much in favour of a test of 82 cents beforehand and 82.50 thereafter the currency looks to go higher.
All the action in the high yielders with euro very quiet.

London NYAM 22:32 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
clearly already asleep:the aformetioned article:
http://www.thestreet.com/p/_yahoo/rmoney/technicalanalysis/10348126_2.html

London NYAM 22:31 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Interesting article on SPX, JPY and Interest rates: techy based and i don't agree but it is an alternative scenario that bearish techises should take note of.
g'night.

Philadelphia Caba 22:29 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
AUD Trade Balance due at 21:30est, cons. -1254M vs. previous -876M

Syd 22:25 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Rising NZ Mortgage Rates May Damp Hike Talk - RBC
Speculation that RBNZ has more tightening to do may be dampened by recent increases in NZ fixed mortgage rates, says RBC Capital Markets FX strategist Sue Trinh; thinks RBNZ may be compelled to hold off from hiking rates further this cycle if mortgage rate increases are sustained. "In this context, the 72% chance of a 25 bps RBNZ hike by June 7 seems a bit rich." RBNZ, which hiked cash rate by 25 bps last month, next reviews policy Apr. 26.

Gen dk 22:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dallas GEP 22:19 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
from 85.15-25 , NZD/JPY IMO is a better short than a long. it may be heading for 84.60 area short term UNLESS NZD/USD were to break hard long

london 22:16 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
london 12:41 GMT April 2, 2007
€/$ Not confirmed yet on my model but high probability a high in place last week for these pair...should last for at least few weeks. gt's all

Now confirmed! To be more pecise.. the high of 21st March was two weeks ago and not one week ago as stated above.

quito_ecuador_valdez 21:54 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
...I haven't posted for some time...coffee business, construction, antique car restoration...here's my take on long term shorting USD summed up by this article. Says that sub-prime lenders (specializing in bad or iffy credit clients)are first to go as USA housing market finally wans...& they are shakey now. Quotes from that link as "We suspect the problem in the sub-prime area is just the tip of the iceberg for the mortgage market as a whole " (David Shulman, U. of Ca. Anderson Report) and "Sub-prime lenders, who target customers with poor credit histories, have suffered from a downturn in the market." My "theory" (idea) is that Fed won't have to hike interest any longer eyeing this sort of breaking action, meaning end to long termlong USD trades. Again, looking only at long term...I am not-never short term/swing trader. Closed minor AU long for profits a week ago..on year chart mid cycle...won't position til support line hits. Best of luck, Chuck

USA BAY 21:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Appreciate your reply and looking forward on your opinion on nzd/jpy. Thanks a lot. gt/gl

Dallas GEP 21:41 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Bay, first target for nzd/usd is 7110 then 6960. AUD/NZD longs should see 1.1330-1.1340 again. Haven't pulled up charts on nzd/jpy so i will have to get back to you on that one.

London NYAM 21:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
"This issue can be resolved and there is no need for any trial," Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, told Britain's Channel 4 News television.

USA BAY 21:36 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

What is your target for short nzd/usd and long aud/nzd. What is your view on nzd/jpy, was thinking short with stop at 85.85. thanks

Dallas GEP 21:32 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
BAY, I would be surprised to see 7270 but all things are possible . Currently i do not think it is very probable FWIW KIWI is VERY bullish currently 1,1270-1.1280 is decent support on aud/nzd so that pair SHOULD long from that range

ldn 21:27 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
NZD/JPY [email protected]@8547..target 8327

USA BAY 21:27 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Do you think the next target for kiwi 0.7270 will occur before any correction. thanks

Dallas GEP 21:25 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Eur/gbp at 6750 would be a decent LONG to 6790 . risk is to 6725-30 imo. This would work especially well if GBP begins to short at a faster rate than euro.

Dallas GEP 21:18 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Giving KIWI possie a 7257 stop now. aud/NZD is shorting causing nzd/usd to long currently.

London NYAM 21:17 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Then again, Greenspan wasnt much help either.

London NYAM 21:14 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Its hard not to be critical when members come out with statements like:
"I regard “price stability” as zero inflation, properly measured. What does “properly measured” mean? Price indexes have biases of various sorts and experts generally believe that U.S. indexes overstate inflation by a modest amount."
[really who?]
"I myself make a rough guess that, for example, the Consumer Price Index overstates inflation by about one percentage point a year."
[Ok, now pull the other one.]
"Over the past decade or so, the Fed has gravitated to the position of placing primary emphasis on the core rate of inflation, as measured by the PCE price index excluding food and energy."
[How convenient.]
"I am perfectly happy to state my personal inflation objective as an inflation rate measured by the core PCE price index of 1.5 percent, plus or minus 0.5 percent."
[Well, if you keep changing the definition to exclude ‘volatile’ components then sure you can 'happily' make it look like whatever you want.]
Really it’s sad. But at least they got one thing right. ‘Synching:’ the psychological alignment of market and fed wishful thinking. Im not bashing the fed i trully feel sorry for them being stuck in this mess and having to resort to some sorry jaw-boning to make up for trully appalling Government fiscal policy.

Mtl JP 21:03 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Benny B. as every coin has two sides and to lift your FED spirits: "Gentle Ben, stocks’ best friend.” - by Kudlow

USA Zeus 21:02 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   

Mtl JP 20:38 GMT April 2, 2007
In this story there is a wicked witch named Pelosi dressed as Goldilocks chasing the bears-

USA Zeus 03:00 GMT November 9, 2006
Welcome to a stag*nation.
George is a lame duck and Nancy is like Lil' Kim.
Lord help us all as the fiat deflates LT.

USA Zeus 08:46 GMT November 9, 2006

”…See a Pelosi/Reid EUR/USD @ 1.32-36 possible whenever that may be.”

GVI john 21:02 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Wash DC Benny B. 20:48 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Man I get tired of all this FED bashing here, mebbe I should take the FOMC to Perfectland and meet with the ECB so we can learn everything there is to know.

Mtl JP 20:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
NYAM / "Our economy is fundamentally sound. The GDP gap is small. Putting aside near-term uncertainties, mostly related to housing and housing finance, economic activity is growing at approximately the same rate as potential."

In the script of the Goldilocks story, she ran away when the bears returned. The FED is trying a revisionist version in which heroine Goldilocks chases the bears the away. Right, and it never rains in America.

lake oswego esu 20:27 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
anyone trade eurjpy?

Mtl JP 20:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
dlryen 300: a historical perspective chart. It took some 12 years to go from 300 to 150, approx 9 years to go 150 to 83. The rest ... is more or less current knowledge.

London NYAM 20:02 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
JP: Loved your Goldilocks coment. Amazing that they probably actually believe that they are looking at the right indicators for inflation. Sadly Fiscal policy has been letting them down as well.

PAR: you must be filthy rich becuase i certainly couldnt live on the interest differential offered by USD vs JPY over a year. So i guess i would have to leverage that 'one-way' bet of yours. Oh, but wait, if i leverage it, then i run a greater risk of losing money if flows go in the other direction...and the yen appreciates...hmm then i might have to unwind or some-thing

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:01 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
If my memory serves me well, Dr. Oliver called the top in $A at 0.8. We will not hold that against him: http://www.amp.com.au/display/file/0,2461,FI163399%255FSI56,00.pdf?filename=9+%2D+Australian+dollar+%2D+OI+%239+2007%2Epdf

Lahore FM 19:47 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
its been some time that we had trending rallies into wellington and tokyo sessions.let us see if we get one today.

Gen dk 19:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 19:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:34 GMT April 2, 2007
the worst,certainly.

Dublin Flip 19:37 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
PAR that's if you don't think you are someone who can make 1.5pips a day trading -LOL

The Netherlands Purk 19:34 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Yes FM, and the best part of it all, or maybe the worse part, they dont now it.

Lahore FM 19:33 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
eur acted the perfect laggard today.sufering on most crosses.first with audusd rise and then with gbpusd rise.think tomm is euro day.

Lahore FM 19:30 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
and some are intrinsically indecent.remain so.

PAR 19:28 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Being long USDJPY brings you 500 pips a year . So actually your one year break even is 112.80 while if you sell dollar yen you lose 500 pips if the price stays at 117.80, so your one year break even is 122.80. No wonder nobody buys yen .

CT Cris 19:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 19:19 GMT April 2, 2007
====no..you just remind me with the doneky who laughs on the the joke next day , cause it takes him sometime to understand it.

AZUSA 4x-ed 19:19 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 19:12 GMT April 2, 2007 || I would think this is more than enough to give someone the benefit of the doubt.

CT Cris 19:12 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 18:30 GMT April 2, 2007
====
you make me laugh cause you understand my offer after 7 months.

USA BAY 19:09 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS,

Are saying that gbp/jpy from this point is a straight run to 247 with minimal correction regardless of the boe decision. thanks

Macau Sofia 19:06 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:44 GMT April 2, 2007

You are genius. Your logic give 300 USD/YEN by nex year.

GENEVA DS 19:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
... sorry forget to mention... probably.. AUDJPY has to go to 100 ish before the expected correction back to 96.50... and GBPJPY to 24700 ish ,before correction back to 241 ish and EURJPY to 166 ish before correction back to 159 ish...

GENEVA DS 19:03 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Looks like some good short covering happening in all carry trades this week before easter.... market seems to be short up to the eyeballs in USDCHF and USDJPY and its related crosses... save haven will happen this week, only the other way round.... more USD buying... targets USDCHF 1.26000 and USDJPY 121.99.... good luck

Caribbean! Rafe... 19:01 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Euro target for the next few days is, 13144-13346-13547 with an
UP-ward bias...

Halifax CB 19:01 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 18:30
Tho I don't follow other folks' calls, I do have to say CT Cris' call this am on USDJPY was bang on. FWIW...

The Netherlands Purk 18:57 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Ah, is the Sandman stopping his signal thingy? Great, bank must be pleased, they have taken everything exept for his posts....

Mtl JP 18:46 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Van jv / What POOLE is doing is feeding more fog to a market that may be starting to see clarity: namely that the economy is vulnerable to a R ecession.

The FED is trying to mitigate the consequences of past liberal money supply flood by trying to obfuscate (Poole is saying clarify) the meaning of "inflation", namely the fact that prices are blowing the roof everywhere, regardless of how they are measured.

IF he is trying to sound hawkish maybe it is in responce to Chinese yikyak of not accumulating any more of the US fiat, before the smoke turns to a fire. Coz IF the dollar bears start to run out of a burning forest, they will eat Goldilocks for lunch.

USA Zeus 18:45 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 18:30 GMT April 2, 2007

He must have forgotten about that poll-


CT Cris 16:08 GMT September 18, 2006
=======
"No more signals posts here, to allow the others to show their
skills , and to stop sme silly comments."censored

AZUSA 4x-ed 18:30 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:33 GMT August 25, 2006
can I know how many trader intrested in my signals for sure,
otherwise I may stop them.
thks .
========================
If you intend to honor this offer, count me in as one of the "not interested!" thks.

Van jv 18:25 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:18 ///// GD
can not say it helped me in"Understanding Inflation - Poole'
do not trust official numbers in present semi-global economy....many ways to measure---I expect infl. troubles

RIC fxq 18:23 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
4cast:

* 02 Apr 07: 19:06(LDN) - FX NOW! EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Flows - After a wild few weeks, new statement period starts slowly

19-Mar21-Mar23-Mar27-Mar29-Mar02-Apr1.32601.32801.33001.33201.33401.33601.33801.3400154.80155.30155.80156.30156.80157.30157.80EUR/USDEUR/JPYEUR/USD, EUR/JPY - Two Weeks 4CAST02 Apr
After what appeared to be a wild nd-of-the-month/quarter/Japanese fiscal year couple of weeks, FX trading is beginning the quarter quietly. In advance of the shortened week, due to Easter; and the weird trading session due on Fri, just to react to US employment data, traders and investors seem happy to push "must do" orders through the market and sit on the sidelines until something significant takes place/develops. M.B.

USA BAY 18:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Thanks a lot

Mtl JP 18:21 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18:17, preferably 3+ per household

dc CB 18:20 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Iran's Larijani says definitely believes sailor issue can be resolved, no need for any trial - Reuters

Dubai Tony 18:20 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone advice on USD/CAD and AUD/USD

PAR 18:17 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Selling cheap Toyoata s, Lexus and other japan manufactured cars is all what the japanese want .

CT Cris 18:16 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
mostly break will occur.

CT Cris 18:15 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   

USA BAY 18:04 GMT April 2, 2007
gbp.jpy is heading twd 233.65 if breaks 233.15 .
if not breaks it will decline to 232.00

USA BAY 18:04 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone comment on gbp/jpy please. thanks

AZUSA 4x-ed 17:59 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 17:53 GMT April 2, 2007 || Very true oil, but only in those cases when you get too close to your charts.

Dublin Flip 17:57 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
BOJ and Kampo want their stock market to go down whilst encouraging Japanese Capital to leave the country??

Yeah right. That's like hoping to get cancer because you feel you should lose some wight.

It precisely the Asset deflation that causes their price deflation problem (negative wealth effect). You'd after 17 years they'd be treating the disease and not the symptom.

Monaco Oil man 17:53 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Had problems understanding the english , however getting from one point to another isn't a straight line in Forex markets.

Meaning , doing contras on multi year high is good R/R ,that i'd guess MANY will use at this time..

Once the dust settles up and the place is cleaned out, AUD , EUR,GBP, NZD will have to face gravity.

PAR 17:44 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Drop in Nikkei proof that Japanese capital outflows will accelerate in the new fiscal year .Should be extremely yen negative and thats what BOJ and Kampo want .

USA Zeus 17:44 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
max pain? how so? by people who have to be contray and fight fight mkts? They are gone soon enough anyways.

exactly -19 of 20 gone "soon enough" due to their max pleasure? Nope-due to their max pain...

NYC gone 17:35 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
fwiw re path of least resistence? yes by definition.
max pain? how so? by people who have to be contray and fight fight mkts? They are gone soon enough anyways.

i see it more as max pleasure,, mkt trrades at prices where it finds pleasure.
Markets are about THEM not us.

is my take

Mtl JP 17:18 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Understanding Inflation - Poole

USA Zeus 17:11 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
strong gold reversal there on the increased volatility.

USA Zeus 17:09 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:07 GMT April 2, 2007
rally = really

USA Zeus 17:07 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 17:00 GMT April 2, 2007

JD- Pleaase don't take it personal- was not intended to any single contributor here. Thanks for your various musings.

I do believe that the market follows the path of least resistance (greatest pain) so at some point all trends end.

In the end we all get what we rally want in trading.

GT

Canberra JD 17:00 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I am not calling a reversal zeus. I am calling some big timers taking a bit of profit on the almost 700 pip move...

USA Zeus 16:58 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP- Thx :-)
GT!

Mtl JP 16:50 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, c my 23:07 April 1

USA Zeus 16:48 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Fascinating to see AUD/USD continue higher and this forum calling for big reversals @ .77, .78, .79, .80, .81.....

Guess Ed Seykota and John Henry took the simple approach

Canberra JD 16:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I smell sell off for aud/usd... Perhaps back to 8100 for now in preparation for the rate decision. I would think there is alot of worry about what will actually happen.

I saw a report here in Australia, that a rate rise will totally ruin the housing and retail sector, however I can only believe the housing for now.

A survey says that if they raise wednesday, they will raise the next 2 months in succession.. Weird eh.

Bangkok bkk 16:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Limit order long GBP/USD @ 1.9770
Still holding short USD/JPY and EUR/JPY.

USA Zeus 16:33 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Yes- Since the ICBM "confirmed" downtrend at about 1.9570 with a target price of 1.9470 it has been in a solid uptrend.

Bangkok bkk 16:27 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
fwiw... we are going to see AUD/USD trade above 0.8250 , NZD/USD trade above 0.7300 and GBP/USD above 1.99 in the next 2 - 3 days. Someone keep buying them non-stop.

london av 16:15 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
oil man, u still confident on your nzd/usd short. ive followed u at 7210

CT Cris 16:04 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
GBP.USD
======
still in uptrend , will be heading twd 19857 if breaks 19800.

Lahore FM 15:52 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:46 GMT April 2, 2007
thanks to you sir,for your kind support.

USA Zeus 15:46 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:40 GMT April 2, 2007

Thanks FM- Great to see you here!

Lahore FM 15:40 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
eurusd all primed for break above 3380.

RIC fxq 15:39 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:29 GMT

good point re: mkt being sht USD going into the numbers. consider 1). ISM is pretty volatile and 2). it is following a raft of decent/poor numbers plus the pre-holiday issues and reactions were apt to be somewhat muted.

I am NOT a USD bull but when post after post on this side and >>>> side of GV are looking for extended moves higher in virtually every USD cross, and in addition the majority of analysts and mkt "strategists" are on the same $-ve one has to pause before being overly aggressive on the short side, particularly since we are nowhere near key bottoms in most pairs and the recent run of UK, EU and JPN reports have not been overwhelming glowing, despite all the crank from various and sundry ECB talking heads re: EZ growth. FRA, ESP, ITA are NOT participating in the so called "boom" the GER is supposedly undergoing.

Just IMO of course.

London NYAM 15:29 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I hate to sound paranoid but if you know the market is thin and is at technically critical point and you have Very deep pockets today would be agood day for a Shogun offensive-defence.
Either that or the market was well short prior to the figures and there just isnt enough concerted follow through available on a slow week.

USA Zeus 15:25 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ab- not at the moment. Fairly lackluster and am focused on the commods and equities today.
GT :-)

-Z-

hk ab 15:10 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
zeus, some interest in e/j short?

London NYAM 15:07 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:54 GMT April 2, 2007:
Agreed. I have quite a few puts on the Spider that are agreeing as well for now.
Just look at taht Yen and the SPX defying gravity again. (Is this a break out e-wave of a triangle pulling back to whip saw the longs? 118.06 break will mean it is not. and further dollar strength will come.)

UK Alex 14:54 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:43 GMT// When margins come under pressure and profits squeezed, it seems quite likely we'll see some sort of sell-off. Can't see the consumer being particularly willing to pay higher prices in the current economic climate.

Monaco Oil man 14:52 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Went long $CHF 1.2133.

Went short NZD 7205..

Picking up , some of this , as i think by close i will have a couple of pips at least on most of those..."Quick" Contra trades.

USA Zeus 14:48 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
So New Century files for Ch 11.
You heard it first on GVI-

USA Zeus 18:28 GMT November 28, 2006
Actually the core business of Countrywide is conventional conforming paper. If sub prime is your target try New Century symbol: NEW

London NYAM 14:43 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
from the yahoo dude: "The prices paid index rose to 65.5, the highest since August; but the risk of carry though to consumer inflation is light given the weak pricing power in manufacturing."
If thats the case then the equity reaction is largly on econ worries in which case the dollar should be weaker but its treading water. Im glad im just watching this one.

hk ab 14:35 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
gold has traded largely diverted from majors....

Lots of gold crosses transaction?

USA Zeus 14:33 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sure glad I cut out of my GBP/USD shorts just in time to miss my objective- LOL!

USA Zeus 14:31 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the yen desk is taking a breather.

Monaco Oil man 14:28 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I have 653.10 as the support which must not break , or could lead to some domino stumble on gold.

UK Alex 14:26 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Who's winning, and who will lose in subprime shakeout

Rosner's theory is that hedge funds hold a lot of the lowest-rated bits of subprime MBS and CDOs, called the equity tranches. Pension funds and insurers probably hold the less risky, senior tranches because rules restrict them from investing in lower-rated securities, he added.
Still, many CDOs bought the lower-rated bits of subprime MBS, so Rosner is concerned that rising losses from mortgage defaults and foreclosures could even eat their way up into the investment-grade tranches of CDOs.
Pension funds and insurers may also have invested in hedge funds that hold the riskier CDO tranches, Rosner and Mason said.
"There is a real risk that a lot of these assets are held by unsuspecting end holders like pension plans," Rosner said.

USA Zeus 14:25 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Volatility in gold increases on the selloff. Chance for a bigger move and/or 2-way flows increases...

NYC beyond_destiny 14:23 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
another entry of euro 1.337 s/l 1.3355

london ms 14:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
can anyone suggest any websites which give free acess to economic data something like dow jones

Monaco Oil man 14:19 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Current :

GBP$ 1.9793 Short.
AUD$ : 8146+8156+8175.


Will remove the lower with a few pips if seen..
Move stops to entries on the break of the first support.
gl gt

USA Zeus 14:16 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Covered GBP/USD shorts @ b/e to avoid a bunker buster. Will attempt again

Monaco Oil man 14:15 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I was just looking at the DOW :

Break of 12280 , will test the next support at 12176 , then nothing much till 11400...This could lead to another wave of US$ weakness , all in all , the US$ is not out of the woods..Even though i am long $ for the current time.
Have to say , this US$ better go long very soon, otherwise i m going to fold and go short US$ once again, last week things were going fine, till friday news ..
On the open of the day , i thought there would be a stop run , as it usually does that on the monday following a big friday, but a break HIGHER than 1.34 , and GBP 1.9820 would definitely give me the willies , and force me to scratch the trades , and look the other way.

All in all , i hate being against the trend, which i am at the moment doing , as the trend is for the moment without question a continuation of the multi year dollar devaluation.

London NYAM 14:12 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
What to do? Sell the dollar on econ weakness, sell the dollar on equity losses, or buy the dollar on improved chances of a rate rise. Net effect ....
It will depend today on how badly wequities take this.

UK Alex 14:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Prepare for another sell-off in equities then.

Syd 14:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
The ISM manufacturing index decreased to a reading of 50.9 in March from 52.3 in Feb. New orders were 51.6 versus 54.9, production was 53.0 vs 54.1 and employment was 48.7 compared to 51.1 in Feb. Prices paid rose to 65.5 from 59.0. On the whole, the index depicts a factory sector that is growing, but at a somewhat weaker pace than in Feb with rising price pressures.

NYC beyond_destiny 14:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I bought euro 3376 on big swing. market might be muted over the data. s/l likely 20-30 pips...

RIC fxq 14:04 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ISM does nothing for those expecting/wishing for a US rate cut given prices paid component

london ms 14:02 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ok beyond destiny what do you think now?

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:01 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
US ISM manufacturing prices paid 65.5, up from 59.0 and against the expected 58.5.

london ms 14:01 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ism 50,9

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:00 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
US ISM manufacturing index in March 50.9 from 52.3 and against forecasts for 51.4.

NYC beyond_destiny 13:59 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
anything below 53 may register 82 cents for aus and 1.34 for euro...

Syd 13:57 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Canada Fin Min: China Yuan Moves "Welcomed But Too Slow"
Canada Fin Min To Discuss Yen With Japan Fin Min Tues
Canada Fin Min:Yen Likely To Be Discussed At G7 Meeting

NYC 13:56 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, just avoid the cluster bombs and bunker busters! ISM PMI on deck.

ABHA FXS 13:52 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Long GBP/JPY 232.93 TARGET 236.30

USA Zeus 13:51 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ab- No gold positions at the moment- just laser strikes intraday. Perhaps that may change soon however.

GL GT

hk ab 13:51 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
someone mentioned there's a long queue of uradishi bond maturity in Apr. Wild card.

hk ab 13:48 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
oilman//thanks for those comments and direction will work accordingly.

I didn't go short aud and gbp this morning 'cos seeing the hand still wants to kill more herd.

Now, short from 1.98 sounds very attractive but need to put a non-regretable stop.
I bet aud prints .82 earlier than .80 though. however, could be a brief touch.

Zeus// what's your interest on gold? long or short side?

Ldn 13:47 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy in clash over immigration The frontrunner in the French presidential election, Nicolas Sarkozy, has said France is "exasperated by uncontrolled immigration

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:46 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Canada's finance minister Flaherty says expects to discuss yen at G7. (Reuters)

kl anita 13:44 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ok thank guys

Monaco Oil man 13:41 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
BTW we're only 40 pips or so from 1996 high on ozi..interesting to see how things devellop from here.

The last time it got there , things got pretty ugly..
Japan is going to be key for further appreciation of the OZI.

USA Zeus 13:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Volatility picking up in gold here.

Monaco Oil man 13:37 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Have to admit , NZD was a great long at 67..

It was a gold mine , which i think i've made a broken record of , well enough , however buying it at 7211 does not look very attractive in terms of R/R for further move...Though i can imagine stops have been run all over , meaning it will take awhile till short side builds up more...

Mtl JP 13:37 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn 12:47 / that would be saying HF's are somehow immune from losses. I do note however that HF managers are first in the profit line: via their hefty "management fees"

BUT my point: being cavalier with pricing out one's risk with some foggy notions of "long way" is, well.. would you be the bank that would rush out money to mm for his scheme ?

Monaco Oil man 13:33 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Well i'm not bullish for the US$ going forward , to say the least ,only thing i can see right now is short term long $ campaigns;
long term wise it really need to establish a swift move to the upside , a trend change , cause it does seem i took profit too early last week on the $ shorts, as it just keeps going and going ..
Last friday all my positions got stopped most at entries , some with stops , i am going short again that gbp , ozi..I know perfectly them making new high's is not particularly bullish for the US$.

However if i can't get some pips by going short 1.9793 , OZI 8175, within a one week time frame , then something is definitely very wrong with the us$ , I'll bag the ideas , and go short us$.

GL GT.

NYC beyond_destiny 13:30 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:56 GMT April 2, 2007
NYC beyond_destiny 12:35 GMT April 2, 2007

Thank you for your advice...It seems Eur bulls are pushing it toward 1.34 prior release of US ISM. I was out twice with few pips with trading on 1/5 min chart...time to watch

london ms 13:26 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
nothing concrete anita but just from the way it seems to be going, although another contributor has said 1,9825 could be the celling so thats dampen my parade

(enjoy the gp this weekend anita )

london ms 13:26 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
nothing concrete anita but just from the way it seems to be going, although another contributor has said 1,9825 could be the celling so thats dampen my parade

(enjoy the gp this weekend anita )

RIC fxq 13:23 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
london ms 13:14 GMT

fundamentals, aka "funnymentals" don't count anymore ... whoops, mymistake, that only if they are non-US data, and then only if the US number is sub-consensus. LoL

the calls are from 51.0-52.5 for ISM , consewnsus nearer 51.3

London NYAM 13:20 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
kl anita 13:10 GMT April 2, 2007
short term GBP looks overbought but momentum may carrry it up to resistance at 1.9825-35. Medium term does look like 2 will be attempted.

UK Alex 13:18 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Talk of a 1.98 barrier making the rounds now.

UK Alex 13:17 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
The AUD: does history matter?

kl anita 13:15 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
london ms ...

why become 2.any news??

london ms 13:14 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
whats the feeling re the ism number at 1000edt

UK Alex 13:14 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ab// If it is *real* selling could this explain why?

USA Zeus 13:13 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Building a short possie on GBP/USD with 1.9794 as the first selling point.

london ms 13:12 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
anita fron the way its going at the moment $2 could be on the cards this week

hk ab 13:10 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
anyone can say something on the divgerence of metals with majors?

seldom see aud negatively correlated with gold, fwiw....

prelude of aud weakness by gold? or
prelude of gold strength by aud?....

kl anita 13:10 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
how gbp usd? pllease guys ur opinion

London NYAM 13:10 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Look for a potrential whip-saw action right after the data release. The USDJPY has wound itself up in a tight little triangle waiting to blow. The direction to me is slightly ambiguous although i favour a dollar strengthening to start followed by a sharp reversal.

FWIW im staying on the side-line. Leaving for vacation on wednesday and dont want to be holdiong any positions. So take all this with a grain of salt.

Dallas GEP 13:03 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Shorted kiwi 7209 with stop at 7247. AUSSIE should have some serious selling interest at 8180-8200. KIWI longs currently being supported by aussie longs but that should subside.

London NYAM 12:56 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 12:35 GMT April 2, 2007

It is still possible of course that you will get to 1.3325 before the (i suspect succesful) test of the 1.3390-9 area. I just think its done correcting thats all. But I do hope you are right (only problem the last lopw of this correction was at 1.3331 which was the .618 retrace of the move. That failed to break and though it may be tested again it will have trouble breaking to the 10 extra pips you are looking for. Thats all. please dont take this as criticism of your trade, I am just cautioning from another perspective.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:47 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:30 //
for example on retail platform - you can copy this and hold long AUDJPY ot NZDJPY and receive the swap points... but since retail are on margin these profits easily can be lost in an adverse price move...

however big funds I think won't let this happen and will hedge themselves, no?

Ldn 12:44 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy To Push For Weaker Euro If Elected French Pres
French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy, who is topping the polls 20 days before the first round of the presidential election, Monday pledged to push for a weaker euro to counter other currencies' "monetary dumping." He said the U.S., China, Japan and the U.K. are indulging in competitive devaluation, and urged the euro zone to adopt a common economic policy. If elected and he pushes his proposals through, Sarkozy is likely to face opposition from Germany.

The German Chancellor Angela "Merkel would be very, very worried if France seriously tried to rein in the ECB," said Anthony Thomas, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in London. "As much as it's the whipping boy of French politicians, the ECB is seen in Germany as the bulk against inflation."
censored

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:43 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:30 //
ok tnx!
so do you think that big funds that play the carry-for-yield really leave their interest rate returns in AUD or NZD stc. unhedged?

what theory says is that if they sell yen to buy AUD for example - then they will simultaneously buy futures or forwards to cover the short yen positions at the same levels and protect from possible appreciation?

london 12:41 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
€/$ Not confirmed yet on my model but high probability a high in place last week for these pair...should last for at least few weeks. gt's all

Toronto E 12:37 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 12:18 GMT April 2, 2007
GVI john 12:16 GMT April 2, 2007
Is that meant to be
...---...
on behalf of the USD?

I guess you mean S.O.S. by the three dots etc !

NYC beyond_destiny 12:35 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:25 GMT April 2, 2007

Either way... Euro also seems exhausted and only dragged by selling of US$ through aus/gbp

Mtl JP 12:34 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn / discussion of lack of respect for exact cost valuation of risk (i.e. ones cost of exit) is not meddling; it' s responsible - not to mention prudent.

madrid mm 12:33 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
April 2 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of bonds backed by subprime mortgages are tumbling as investors and bankers, concerned about rising delinquency rates, pull back from what had been one of Wall Street's fastest growing businesses.

About $64.8 billion of securities backed mainly by loans to people with poor credit or high amounts of debt were issued this year through March 22, down 36 percent from $100.9 billion in the same period last year, according to Citigroup Inc.

London NYAM 12:25 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Looks suspiciously like a multiple series of wave 1s have been unfolding on multiple time frames since the 1.3253 low. If that is true a major breakout is building up for the Eur.

GVI john 12:24 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ACC- not sure what you mean. You can email me at: [email protected]

hk ab 12:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Are the money moving out from gold to aud and gbp?.....

Sydney ACC 12:18 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 12:16 GMT April 2, 2007
Is that meant to be
...---...
on behalf of the USD?

hk ab 12:17 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:19 GMT April 2, 2007

Now, dream becomes true, .82 earlier than .80....

Bahrain Bahrain1 12:17 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Watch out for 1.6375 on EURAUD. very important level.

GVI john 12:16 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3354	117.78	1.2155	1.9672	1.1533	0.8093	157.28
High	1.3401	118.38	1.2240	1.9717	1.1593	0.8126	157.58
Low	1.3288	117.21	1.2084	1.9548	1.1500	0.8059	156.64
03/30/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	03/30/2007					
5 day 	1.3336	117.72	1.2154	1.9654	1.1581	0.8080	157.00
10 day	1.3329	117.72	1.2144	1.9625	1.1603	0.8062	156.92
20 day 	1.3255	117.31	1.2175	1.9473	1.1682	0.7940	155.51
50 day 	1.3138	119.19	1.2310	1.9550	1.1715	0.7867	156.58
100 day	1.3110	118.66	1.2273	1.9522	1.1640	0.7847	155.56
200 day	1.2915	117.77	1.2351	1.9146	1.1438	0.7709	152.12

Pisa Dino 12:15 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
USD already had it's high for this week

Sydney ACC 12:12 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 11:49 GMT April 2, 2007
There is growing concern in the local banks that Australian exporters have missed the trend up here and are short. The buying to date, with the exception of BHP, has largely been offshore funds who have appeared night after night.
If history is anything to go by when Aussie has been up at this level previously the daily moves become exaggerated.

NYC beyond_destiny 12:09 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
sold euro 1.3368 t/p 1.320-5 s/l 1.339

london av 11:53 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
nzd/usd looks a good short at these levels with stops above 7210 but nagging feeling the aud longs is helping the kiwi

NYC beyond_destiny 11:51 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
any suggestion for levels of Ausyen shorts? TIA

Canberra JD 11:49 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Seems there a fresh calls for a long a/u.. However I really do not see that... Yet there isnt much sign of a toppy feeling yet. I do notice however that the technical indicators on the daily chart are showing a sharp move down is to come, its just waiting for the buying to end.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
JP - I was referring to an old posting of MM - the one he calculated that investing in high yielding carry trade has still space even after the sharp YEN appreciation we say in the last couple of weeks..
I still will appreciate any comments on the matter..

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:40 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:30 //
hi - sorry to meddle among the big boys here but I have had this case study - MM's calculation might not be useless because once those big firms get yen loan to invest it in high yielding GBP, AUD, NZD etc. - well then I believe they should buy futures or conclude forward deals to protect against adverse currency fluctuations...
at least this is what books say... but I don't think a big bank or fund will leave its positions unhedged..
- I post this just to see if I have the right idea - please don't think that I argue or smtg!

London NYAM 11:30 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
HSBC:
Expects a break out this week from the range 1.3250 to 1.3420 due to thin market conditions. Their bias is for dollar weakening confirmed by incoming US data.

For ISM they expect a decline to 50 from 52.3

They also expect the GBP to continue its bullish run with the Bank of England increasingly likely to raise rates.

Mtl JP 11:30 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm / ideal trading environment and Beatles while doing some funny calculation: as useless as a t!t on a bull when one can (will) not calculate "exchange rate go agains you" which would cancel out rose coloured calculated carrytrade's interest profit

UK Alex 11:26 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy hits out at hedge funds

madrid mm 11:18 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
good news, size does not matter 8-)

The ideal trading environment requires at least 50,000 square feet with columns at least 40 feet apart (30 to 35 feet is standard), and at least 15-foot-high ceilings, architects say. Flat screens and smaller computers mean traders need as little as 50 square feet of floor space apiece, down from more than 100 square feet a decade ago.Click here

Mtl JP 10:40 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 08:48 / US ISM Manuf = Risk, later this am.

GVI john 10:39 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Gen dk 09:24 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 08:53 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
More or less all looks resting, so will do I.

zzz

Ldn 08:48 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad 11523 should cap downside...

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:32 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sell GBPCHF on rallies.......
Good luck all.

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:32 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
UK PMI: Manuf. output prices index subsided to 55.5 from 56.9. The new orders index was 57.1 fm 57.6.

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:30 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
UK March CIPS manufacturing index was 54.4, the sale as February and against forecasts for 55.0.

Sydney ACC 08:27 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
The respected "shadow" monetary policy committee of independent economists funded by the Institute of Economic Affairs, has voted 8-1 in favour of a rate increase. The committee has predicted all three rate increases since last summer - a far better record than almost all City economists.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=MQCLTANYBYGSJQFIQMFCFFOAVCBQYIV0?xml=/money/2007/04/02/cnrates02.xml

Como Perrie 08:20 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Both RBA and BOE rates decisions to come this week. Guess both have nothing to stay onto the dovish side. Early the whole however to call It imo. The more significant thing I saw was the tsunami again, the rest more in line. UK Pmis upcoming in 10

Sydney ACC 08:19 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 08:03 GMT April 2, 2007
Ldn 07:47 GMT April 2, 2007
FWIW...keep an eye in the 8147 level acting as a cap ..
That lasdt flurry on teh AUD took out most of the orders on the top side. Nothing much left on top now to hold this down.

hk ab 08:03 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 07:47 GMT April 2, 2007
FWIW...keep an eye in the 8147 level acting as a cap ..



Are you the LDN who have been here for very long time? just want to confirm, THANKS.

Syd 08:02 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Euro-Zone Mar Mfg PMI 55.4 Vs 55.6 In Feb - Sources

Syd 08:00 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
German March Manufacturing PMI 56.9 Vs 57.2 In Feb - Sources The purchasing managers index for Germany's manufacturing sector fell to 56.9 in March from 57.2 in February, market sources said Monday. The decline in the PMI was unexpected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires last week forecast the PMI would rise to 57.5.

London 07:55 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Iran TV: All 15 UK Sailors Confess To Entering Iran Waters

Ldn 07:47 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
FWIW...keep an eye in the 8147 level acting as a cap ..

Canberra JD 07:41 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Even though for the last 2 weeks i haven't been trading much. I still feel the aud/usd will get to 8065 inthe coming days (minimum). Max would be test 8000 and below. However, the lack of interest in the USD on other pairs will probably prevent any large move

Gen dk 07:40 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 07:35 GMT April 2, 2007
Thank you for your reply. I hope you have a good week. Peace and GT

shanghai bc 07:35 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:16 GMT April 2, 2007

Good afternoon..Expecting to see 750-800/Oz sometime this year..Good trades..

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:30 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Swiss March PMI 62.0, lower than expected.

madrid mm 07:24 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
it is interesting time. FX markets, spot, futures, etc getting bigger and bigger, LBO growing with cheap money, commodities going higher, inflation ¨tamed¨(?). What goes up, seems to go higher at the moment.

U.K. J.B. 07:23 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Good morning all , hope everyone here had a relaxing enjoyable week end,

I feel the good news priced into the aussie dollar at these levels. A number ofconversations this morning of aussie dollar heading for +82 as a result of the rate expections and robust economic data. Weekly chart and r/r , i feel value selling here. GL/GT 2 all....

madrid mm 07:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Though the ISM manufacturing report isn't likely to spike like Friday's purchasers' report from Chicago, a strong reading would be a positive signal for a resumption of growth in the sector.

tokyo ginko 07:19 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
short gbp/usd here for intraday trade

Syd 07:17 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
EUR Has Discounted Another Rate Hike
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro appears set to remain range-bound despite the latest batch of strong euro-zone data.

Rather than translate into expectations of higher euro-zone interest rates, as inflation pressures rise, the data is seen simply confirming only one more rate hike.

After that, analysts reckon inflation pressures will subside and growth prospects will slow, ensuring there is little reason to push interest rates, or for that matter the single currency, any higher.

Carol Hainaut, a euro-zone economist with IXIS Corporate and Investment Bank in Paris, expects a "a major correction" in the euro-zone economy during the next few months, with signs of a deceleration already evident in the construction sector.

She said despite the recent uptick in euro-zone inflation, to 1.9% in February from 1.8% in January, there is little reason to expect it to rise over the European Central Bank's 2.0% target in the short run.

Hainaut pointed to the recent strength of the euro itself, and the fact it is likely to remain stable in months to come; the likelihood of limited gains in oil prices later this year; signs of moderate German wage negotiations; as well as the prospect of an economic slowdown as all reasons why the ECB may raise rates another 25 basis points to 4.0% but no further.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 07:16 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 04:17 GMT April 2, 2007
Good to see your post again sir. I hope you are well. Do you think we will see gold at 800 this year or the next? (sorry for asking the question in the wrong forum but here you are). Peace and GT

nairobi mtajazz 07:08 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I am looking for COMPREHENSIVE analysis on GBP/JPY. Any one

nairobi mtajazz 07:06 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
i am looking for comprehensive analysis on GBP/JPY. A

tokyo ginko 06:58 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
looking to cover back 30-40 pips from here. it is a day trade.

Bangkok bkk 06:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
In my humble opinion;

This week, both USD/JPY and EUR/JPY are testing lower. But USD/JPY should trade lower than EUR/JPY because of USD index slide.

The time is running out and dollar weakness can return unexpectedly... as the long-term downward trend regains control of the situation. This may even occur today or tomorrow. In any case short term volatility is expected by the AS.

Still holding average short USD/JPY @ 117.80
and EUR/JPY @ 157.40

GL. & GT.

Canberra JD 06:37 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
No pullback from 8140... Its the apocalypse

madrid mm 06:11 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
US Commerce Dept. on Friday imposed preliminary tariffs (ranging from 10.9% to 20.35%) on imports of Chinese glossy paper, at request of US paper firm.

This plus Debka.com report (denied by White House) that US military advised US investors to leave Bahrain due to security tensions, prompted NY p.m. session flight from USD/reversal of post-Chicago/PCE gains.

Bumper Australian retail sales, building approvals has market now pricing for RBA rate hike Wed.

Japan March Tankan mixed, and undramatic.

ECB's Trichet in joint European newspaper interview says policy still accommodative, rates moderate. Council sees upside M/T inflation risk.

SNBs Hildebrand says policy 'probably' still expansive but reaching point but now moving in direction where policy may no longer have expansionary effect. Inflation dynamics starting to ease.

South Pacific earthquake/mini tsunami impacts Solomon Islands, 2 confirmed killed.
Asia FX and News:

Australia steals the limelight from Japan Monday, after Tankan fails to inspire in contrast to uber-strong Aussie data.

Feb retail trade +0.9% vs. 0.4% expected, building approvals +10.6% vs. 0.5% expected, latter driven by apartments not houses.

Data sees market sharply shifting odds in favour of an April (Wed) RBA tightening (now 65%). AUD/USD takes out Friday's 0.8126 high (new 10yr high of 0.8135).

Good AUD/NZD demand (US, German names, later four-pillar Aussie bank) and AUD/JPY (Japan broking name leading).

Australia March PMI -1.7ppts to 56.0.

NZD/USD only slightly weighed by AUD/NZD supply, sucked higher as Kiwi money market rates move higher in sympathy with Aussie interbank mkt.

Japan March Tankan large manuf. DI -2pts to 23 (mkt 22); non manuf. unch at 22pts (mkt 23). Capex flans for FY07/08 +2.9% vs. +1.7% consensus.

JPY little moved overall on Tankan, East European player on both sides of GBP/JPY causes much of the post-Tankan volatility (first up then down). USD/JPY range Y117.46-118.07.

Nikkei and JGBs:

Nikkei leaks lower though session after moderately higher open, now -0.45% to 17,210. JGB futures +0.02 134.17.

madrid mm 06:10 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
hello fx Jedi

Mumbai NS 06:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Funny place getting funnier with passage of each day rather funnier shuld be aptly replaced by murkier....lol

shanghai bc 06:04 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai Jai 05:22 GMT April 2, 2007

Dollar has been slowly declining since mid-Feb against majors..Unlikely to change the course for the next few months..DX80.00 may be the next major support..Good luck..

AZUSA 4x-ed 05:53 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
tokyo ginko 05:13 GMT April 2, 2007 || any reason to think that our european counterparts do not enjoy tag-team events?

Canberra JD 05:53 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
So we are now moving towards 8140... Any insider info people? :P

Amsterdam Chic 05:45 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Cris, you see, i love you so much, that even took your name by mistype. LOL.

Chic

Amsterdam Cris 05:39 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Cris, i followed 100+ pip signal:
----------------------------------------------------
CT Cris 17:40 GMT March 30, 2007
this is the most accurate call for today...for the blind Zues..

CT Cris 08:18 GMT March 30, 2007
CT Cris 07:27 GMT March 30, 2007
CT Cris 06:27 GMT March 30, 2007
gbp.usd
======
in uptrend if stays above 19615 ,taregt1 19675 target2
19700.

=====
just to remind you..change of trend must be confirmed by close of 3 bars 5 mins chart below 19615.

========
as downtrend confirmed at 19605 , then will continue till 19470.
-----------------------------------------

and shorted at 9605.

But no problem sir, i cover here quadra loss

CT Cris 05:36 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Amsterdam Chic 05:22 GMT April 2, 2007
======
I will consider you did the strategy on 10 pips call , which you should act fast.
as you said you bought at intervals 20 pips after 19600.
19600-19720 ,market retraced around 19660.

USA Zeus 05:33 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris-.End the ICBM (Indicative Contingent Backwardized Manipulation) and post your self proclaimed “100% returns monthly guaranteed” trades in real time.


Amsterdam Chic 05:22 GMT April 2, 2007
Be careful.
Please read the BS repost CT Cris 17:40 GMT March 30, 2007 where he touted his falsehoods and conveniently left out his 10 pip short signal right before the parabolic 100 pip rise then read USA Zeus 17:59 GMT March 30, 2007 for a pointed retake of truth (esp if he now chooses that they were all set with 20 pip stops instead of add then add again bs etc)

Ultimately this better sums up the accuracy...

USA Zeus 07:21 GMT March 30, 2007
Well looks like a bad day for ICBM's as latest one for GBP/USD failed to get off the launching pad before the stop was hit at 1.9615.

GT
Off for now

New albany mb 05:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
sorry--meant tokyo ginko

Mumbai Jai 05:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Hi Shanghai BC...Good to see your post on the forum...If I may ask you, do you expect resumption of the secular downtrend of the greenback soon? TIA...GT & GL

Amsterdam Chic 05:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:14 GMT April 2, 2007
Sir Cris i did not know that you are using stop loss orders and trend reversal is in place if 9615 broke on upside. Could you reveal those post? And why 10 pips? I was targetting 9470 as you accurately predicted.

As for the 9620-9600 move i dont see it on my chart. I have a real feed from CQG and it show 9614->9606 before another 100 pip rise.

Thanks

New albany mb 05:21 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Yokyo Ginko-- how much of a retracement are you looking for

CT Cris 05:14 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Amsterdam Chic 04:59 GMT April 2, 2007
========

Just I want to tell you that market rose till 19620 then decline again till 19600 ,before it rise again.

tokyo ginko 05:13 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
short small aud here for slight retracment. GT all

CT Cris 05:06 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Amsterdam Chic 04:59 GMT April 2, 2007
=====
you should exit at any point above 19615 as mentioned with a loss 20 pips , I dont think that you are true by leaving position
to loose 120 pips inorder to gain 10 pips.

Amsterdam Chic 04:59 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I would not ask, but according to startegies i read before i kept selling every 20 pips (for 5 times) and now have huge position below the market. I trust you sir, plz respond.

Amsterdam Chic 04:55 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris
Good morning, sir. Thanks for your accurate calls and your input here. Could you guide me with cable shorts which i took below 1.9600 following your call?

thanks

pittsburgh pa 04:43 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Anyone here see the USD/CAD hit 1.1572 today?

Canberra JD 04:43 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Anyone else notice the annoying sunday daily candles on the charts, which shouldnt be there?

Sydney ACC 04:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
AMP's Dr Oliver says AUD overvalued, however, given the interest differentials and firm commodity prices Aussie could appreciate further to 0.8950 the 1989 high.
FWIW that high fit in the middle of a rapid appreciation and similar depreciation. In Sep 88 it was 0.7750, the high occurred in November 88 and was back at 0.7320 in June 89.

CT Cris 04:36 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 01:42 GMT April 2, 2007
=========
I dont know how my call confused your call.
your always always very accurate because they are not clear,
you says it will fall below 117.40 ,and when it reached 117.00
you considerd it done ,regaldless if it rose 100 pips during it path.

Bahrain Bahrain1 04:18 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ECB's Trichet, in a newspaper interview, says monetary policy is on the accomodative side, ECB interest rates are moderate; acting in a firm and timely manner to ensure price stability is warranted; governing council sees upside risks to Eurozone prices in medium term. (Reuters).
Trichet says will do what is necessary to ensure price stability, but we do not precommit to future price action; declines comment on markets not fully pricing in further rise in ECB rates. (Reuters)

shanghai bc 04:17 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   

With major commodities either marking all time highs or breaking out of long consolidation,Aussie's downside may be rather limited and short-lived..Any bull market always climbs the wall of worry..

CT Cris 04:09 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Alaska Moon 02:05 GMT April 2, 2007
Lahore FM 01:42 GMT April 2, 2007
=========
hope the other 49 are not blind.

Silverthorne AL 04:07 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
From the GVI Trading Club
Silverthorne AL 23:35 GMT March 22, 2007
Aud/$.......might be 81.5 or is it 82.64..........

Canberra JD 03:58 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Well, we are yet to see the magical 8140.. We will see what happens from there. From my understanding there is stops above.

Sydney ACC 03:54 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 03:42 GMT April 2, 2007
If they don't then the real money will just wait for publication of the CPI later this month. While I agree there will be a fall it won't be sufficient to take it below 80 cents from this level anyway.
Given Aussie has pushed up 4 big figures in a month that move is the equivalent to more than 25 bp increase, so onits own that does not warrant an increase.

Sydney ACC 03:49 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 02:26 GMT April 2, 2007
To be honest i don't have an opinion. Think Aussie goes higher now against USD. .8250 a likely target, although I hold the same opinion as earlier that it is unsustainable. The flows very much favour AussieI've looked for retracement since we broke 80 cents touched 81 then fell back to 0.8060. It just doesn't look like it at the moment.
FWIW CBA analyst Richard Grace calls for a break 100. Another thing he said last week is that first week in April for eight of the last ten years Aussie has appreciated against JPY.
Looks like it might make it again.

hk ab 03:48 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
the possibility of .82 prints earlier than .80 seen is much higher than vice versa.

Canberra JD 03:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I think the fall below 8000 will happen again when the market finds that they arent raising rates..

Syd 03:37 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
IMM Commitment of Traders - USD net shorts highest since Dec 06
The latest IMM weekly data shows speculative shorts rising 125.9K from 81K contracts to reach the highest level of short positioning since December 2006
Increase was mainly due to the Aud long and a cline in CAD shorts while the sentiment to carry funding currencies emails broadly unchanged..
Euro net longs rose slighty due to a combination of a softer tone from the FOMC and continued hawkish singnals from the ECB and are now within reach of record highs, as long exposure remains heavy. Aud net longs saw a 4th consecutive rise underscoring the ocntinued preference for yield and RBA expectations. This suggest that the speculative market appears somewhat vulnerable to the possible no change decision from the RBA.

4cast

auckland peat 03:26 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Quite a long period of compression for AUD/NZD which at some stage might resolve with gusto.
My individual sentiments on the Australasians (kangaroo brethren if you like heheh) indicate a decoupling at some stage with 1400 and 1200 being the break through points. I suspect upwards.

Miami OMIL (/;-> 03:20 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
I see one thing never changes in the FF LOL. Peace and GT

Syd 03:18 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 03:03 as the irish say depends how you tell it :-))

Syd 03:17 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   

Building approvals fall again
Figures out today show the number of building approvals for new houses has continued to fall.

The Bureau of Statistics says there was a 1.4 per cent drop in the number of approvals from January to February this year.

The number of house-building approvals has now declined 3.2 per cent over the last year.
Private-sector house approvals fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% from a month earlier and fell 5.1% from a year earlier.

ABC

Canberra JD 03:03 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
How unbelievably funny. The government expectations for AUD retail sales was 0.8%, All the news reuters were expecting 0.4 and 0.5%.. The data comes in 0.9% and causes a fuss.
The housing data does not indicate fresh speculation at higher interest rates.. Yet the market chews that up swollows it, and invests..

Is it just me, or are big time investors getting more stupid every day?

Lahore FM 03:02 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
mb and OEE,thanx for your kind support.

off for now.

Syd 03:00 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
China plans to buy $12.5 billion in goods from U.S. in May ($10 billion in mechanical, electronic goods, $2 billion in soybeans, $500 million cotton), person familiar with plans tells Dow Jones; China has in recent years sent trade mission to U.S. annually and last year's purchases were about $16.2 billion, based on local media estimates. Total price tag not unusual, suggests it is business as usual in wake of U.S. decision Friday to put import duties on China paper products; Beijing could yet decide to reduce amount or cancel purchases entirely if trade spat worsens but most would view this as unlikely given US-Sino economic relationship too important to run aground. Besides, in such purchases Beijing is showing its efforts to curb trade surplus with U.S. Final purchasing plan may be announced at next U.S.-Sino talks to be held in Washington in May

Bodrum OEE 02:56 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM

Your posts come across having one intention; goodwill. I do not view this forum a platform for ( as one wrote once) "Lahore and company" or whatsoever. I hope you too do not. I find what you do valuable (contribution and accountability). I am thankful. There are people like yourself here and others, I am in my life yet to see succeed in any involvement long term due to personal(ity) issues (I will not qualify London Jon to this group as I do not know him) . Good day to you

Syd 02:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Building starts up strongly

April 02, 2007

A STRONG rise in building approvals is not a sign of recovery in the housing sector and should not be seen as a green light to raise interest rates, economists said today.
Australian building approvals rose 10.6 per cent to 13,418 unit in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, from a downwardly revised 12,136 units in January, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

In the year to February, building approvals rosel 10 per cent.

Housing Industry Association executive director for housing and economics Simon Tennent said the strong rise was more likely the product of apartments finally getting approval after months of delays at the local government level.

"It's a welcome boost to the medium and high density sector, which is under a lot of pressure as the rental markets are tight," he said.

"But we're concerned at the continuing falls in house building."

More healthy building approval figures in coming months would be needed to show a recovery in the housing sector, Mr Tennent said.

"I don't think this is the green light for interest rates to go up.

"Home affordability is suffering on the back of higher interest rates and high land prices – today's numbers confirm that still is the case."

Mr Tennent said the apartment sector was not particularly strong adding that the strong growth came after several months of backlog in getting council approval.

wellington am 02:28 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 02:24 GMT April 2, 2007

I am the worst person to comment on USD Majors, even my own humble kiwi. Prefer to trade cross rates, or commodities. With respect to the kiwi, it is probably a sell around 72, but I'm unlikely to take it.

What I can say is that towards the end of the year there are huge amount of Uridashi redemptions lined up - so if we at these levels in August/Sept. I may consider loading up a short position trade.

New Albany mb 02:27 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM---keep on posting FM--your input is valued by many here

USA BAY 02:26 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Can I have your view on aud/jpy please. Thanks

USA BAY 02:24 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
WELLINGTON AM,

Could you please kindly comment on nzd/usd please. thanks

Wellington MWA 02:09 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
wellington am: Thanks. Actually I was thinking there may be some way of passing it off to a clearing house or c FOREX orporate who would for a fee carry it? I have heard of such things happening, but being small fry this may not be something I can acquire?

USA Zeus 02:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 02:01 GMT April 2, 2007

Quid pro quo as a return favor to a friend who has been a real bright spot here!

Alaska Moon 02:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 01:42 GMT April 2, 2007
=======
FM, forget that guy !!!! There are 50 of us out here who appreciate your input !!!!
Moon

Lahore FM 02:01 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Zeus and Azusa thanx.it is good to have friends speak for one.gtgl.

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:59 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
FM, you are doing great! I find no ambiguity in your posts or your intentions. The self-appointed 'protector of the few' would do best to work out a few personal issues before focusing on GV...

USA Zeus 01:57 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Have a thought that with Friday being a holiday for some, I anticipate a larger than normal reaction from any ADP payroll shock on Wed.

Sydney ACC 01:54 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Bank Bill Futures Contracts up 5 cents all the way across the curve

wellington am 01:54 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Wellington MWA 01:41 GMT April 2, 2007

Hi from another Wellingtonian.

When it comes to cutting loosers, the answers depend a lot on the situation - what percentage of capital are you using; what was your initial target/timeframe for the trade; Has anything changed? Then of course there are psychological questions like is the trade affecting your judgement to trade rationally?

If you can answer these questions, then it should be clear what to do.

USA Zeus 01:53 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Looks like I covered those e/j shorts a bit too soon.
Just part of the warm-up process as we spool up to crush it hard this week.

Sydney ACC 01:53 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Well that just about does it for interest rates. Over the weekend the paper reported economists split 50-50 on a rate increase, those figures now just about confirm it. market will continue to bid this thing up, 00-10 now support.
Funny how Aussie goes bid and Kiwi follows in the jetstream, never the other way.

Wellington MWA 01:49 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:44 GMT: OK, understand... Anyone else assist? Thanks

hk ab 01:48 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
0.82 on radar.

USA Zeus 01:45 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
OTTAWA mjw 01:37 GMT April 2, 2007
Thx!



Lahore FM- Friend- forget that heckler. Many here (incl myself) find your posts extremely valuable-
Plz keep 'em coming as always

GT to you!!!!!! :-)
-Z-

Syd 01:44 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Wellington MWA 01:41 I dont like to advise on a situation as that. may be someone else here would kindly advise

Lahore FM 01:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
london jon 01:38 GMT April 2, 2007
what confuses me jon is that how can a subsequent post which negates and is opposite to an earlier one can confuse in an ever shifting liquid marketplace.anyways,good night.

Wellington MWA 01:41 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Syd: I have an open sell position at 0.7804 (5 lots), which is obviously starting to hurt a little. Do you know of any way of clearing this and minimising my loss? Appreciate your assistance...

Toronto MRC 01:40 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Shorting audjpy 95.57

USA Zeus 01:40 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 01:36 GMT April 2, 2007

Even in South-Central when in the heat of battle, tunnel vision works-LOL

london jon 01:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 01:29 GMT April 2, 2007
hmmmm - you seem to be getting a bit confused again - I do not follow yours nor anybody elses recommendations for my own trading. I had just noticed when reading back thro GV tonight your 2 contradictory posts and merely wished to point out the 2 confusions. Please don't get so sensitive as to start issuing financial warnings as if I am about to sue you for bad advice. lolzzz....good night.

Toronto MRC 01:38 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sydney

Building aprovals is the same as building permits?

OTTAWA mjw 01:37 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
usa zeus

well said!

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:36 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Even that is a dangerous proposition if you are stranded in South-Central!

Sydney ACC 01:34 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Retails sales +0.9% versus expectation +0.5%
Building approvals +10.6% versus 1.0%

USA Zeus 01:34 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
What's the big deal? Market views change with new info.-The reality of chasing a moving target. If that is too confusing then best to chase after something stationary- like a bus stop.

melbourne saint 01:34 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
21:30ET AUSTRALIA FEB RETAIL SALES +0.9 PCT M/M S/ADJ (REUTERS POLL: +0.4 PCT) [RTR]

Lahore FM 01:29 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
for all friends here especially london jon,all posts are buyer beware.all the fine print is a must read.

My intention is not to offer any form of investment or trading advice whatsoever. The posts I have made earlier could easily fail miserably at any point. If you choose to follow the posts be aware that you do so entirely at your own risk.

Syd 01:28 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
China Likely Restrained On US Duties Move - Credit Suisse CS

U.S. move to put import duties on China paper goods is likely more a political gesture than prelude to all out trade war, says Credit Suisse; "it should be seen as another prong in the Bush Administration's multi-facet strategy to try and pressure and lure China's cooperation to appreciate its currency and lower its trade surplus with the U.S., in our view." Duties imposed on coated free sheet paper but not directly on other more important products like steel, textiles, means Washington wants to avoid serious impact on existing bilateral trade; China's response to far "is very mild and refrained. We believe Beijing is more interested in seeking a quick resolution than an escalation."

Lahore FM 01:22 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
agreed jon.long eurusd 1.3344.still carrying potions from 3328 and 3343.had closed parts at 85,82 and 92 on friday.

london jon 01:20 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 01:11 GMT April 2, 2007
Yes agreed contradictory posts are confusing to many so best to wait until one is more sure before posting.

Lahore FM 01:11 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
London jon 01:06 GMT April 2, 2007
lolzzz.the purpose was to signal a clear cut shift.the wording spoke of an impulsive wave.that in itself is forex speak.my apologies anyways.will try to make fewer of these posts.

auckland peat 01:10 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
ftr I am still NZD short. My analysis is available on sharetrader.co.nz forex forum where I can post pictures.

London jon 01:06 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 00:53 GMT April 2, 2007
Well I guess anybody who entered your USD/JPY short recommendation at 117.44 may be feeling a little confused....

Lahore FM 00:53 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
london jon 00:50 GMT April 2, 2007
the 2nd post voids first.first was at 117.44,the 2nd at 117.65 area.it should not confuse.at least i hope not.

london jon 00:50 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:40 GMT April 1, 2007
Lahore FM 19:49 GMT April 1, 2007
You are sounding a bit confused tonight Lahore FM with 2 contradicting trades for usd/jpy............

St. Annaland Bob 00:42 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
someone made millions with singing "imagine" ... off here for some weeks, don't feel to bother my positions ... happy trades, bibi!

RIC fxq 00:39 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 00:36 GMT

interesting you "can't imagine" eur going down

hk ab 00:36 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
is this usd strength the last dead cat bounce?

can't imagines eur printing 1.333x in the early asian.
maybe time to long eur/gbp.

USA Zeus 00:24 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Covered remaining scalp 157.38

bel air 00:24 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Just need to know if anyone has experience with censored.com

USA Zeus 00:20 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Covered e/j 157.43

Syd 00:16 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
BOJ: Big Firms' FY07 Capex Plans Highest Since 1990

USA Zeus 00:15 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sold more e/j short 157.60

Toronto MRC 00:12 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Lets not forget that the end of one fiscal year is the start of the next. Some companies in Japan may wanted to pad the income statement for this year on the assumption that yen will gain strength over the next fiscal year. imho

USA Zeus 00:11 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Sold e/j scalp 157.51

UK Alex 00:05 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Kyodo)--A tsunami may occur in the Pacific Ocean as an earthquake registering a preliminary magnitude of 8.1 occurred around Bougainville Island or the Solomon Islands on Monday morning Japan time, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

The weather agency is looking into the possibility of tidal waves hitting the Japanese archipelago after the quake at 5:40 a.m. Japan time. The information on the focus of the quake is based on data from the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, the agency said.

The U.S. Geological Survey set the magnitude of the same quake at 7.6. The U.S. agency says the focus of the quake is about 10 kilometers below the surface of the ocean some 348 kilometers west-northwest of the Solomon Islands capital of Honiara.

UK Alex 00:03 GMT April 2, 2007 Reply   
Everyone selling yen on realisation BOJ will be in no hurry to tighten policy again.