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Forex Forum Archive for 04/04/2007

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Ldn 23:57 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:52
surely weaker yen not encourage JGB's market?

shanghai bc 23:52 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   

For Aussie and Kiwi traders,it may be worthwhile if they pay more attention to what Japanese and Chinese traders would do to secure their vital supply and investment..

Toronto MRC 22:55 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Hey Syd,

Back again to try the aud short palyed stopped out last night but still agree on the fundamental story for a decline and increased risk aversion towards the carry.

Norway e.s 22:53 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
FM ,lookt at the chart agree see it more clere now ! Thank you (shud hawe done my homwork better easy to see after but hopfuly i lern befor my acont is empty)

Gen dk 22:37 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Philadelphia Caba 22:36 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
sold eur/chf at 1.6312, s/l above 1.6332, t/p 1.6245
it's not trading recommendation (!), only sharing my trade and my view...

Norway e.s 22:11 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
FM thank you wery much,what do you think abot aud/us shod i close and take the loss ore see if it can hawe som retrasment? Can not belewe howe stupid i was to chanch my mony from short usd/jpu 118,95 yesterday into this aud short today. Here ewerywon take wekation today,just me hawing this dark aud clood henging over my hed!

Lahore FM 21:55 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
apsrk off=spark off

Lahore FM 21:54 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
e.s 1.1610/15 might be all it would go to.not enough to apsrk off usd strength.not so far at least.

Norway e.s 21:46 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Hawe notice some use usd/cad lice early indicator at us strenkt,dont look to bad at me,any toghts?

Global-View Research 21:39 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Dollar Weakness Limited as Incoming Data Suggests Strong Payrolls

USA BAY 21:32 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

The next resistant for aud/usd 0.8210 area then nothing till 0.8475, is 0.8475 in the cards this time around and aud/jpy seems set for 99.60. tia

Norway e.s 21:29 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Any opinions abot aud/usd? am short from 8156,have stopp at 8218 are we going to hawe a test at 82 level?(think i shod hawe been in my usd/jpy insted of this aud seems like it going to be expensive to lern this fx)

USA BAY 21:23 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

What do you think of eur/aud at the present level. tia

Sydney ACC 21:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Well here we are at 0.8183 after a high of 0.8194 overnight, where would we be if the Reserve Bank had increased interest rates?
Buying from Asia particuarly Japan helped turn Aussie around then strength continued following weak US ISM and other data. The move now adds up to 5 US cents without a meaningful retracement and with the amount of offshore buying each day it is hard to see a meaningful one occurring. 82 cents ought to provide a barrier today supported by selling from options players but still see anattempt. There were rumours of Macquarie selling AUD for the purchase of wireless and phone cabling from National Grid. One day before the Easter break though its hard to see any meaningful transaction emanating today to push Aussie down in the face of continuing offshore buying.

GVI john 21:04 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 21:03 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3368	118.66	1.2200	1.9753	1.1587	0.8184	158.62
High	1.3382	119.09	1.2233	1.9774	1.1594	0.8194	158.96
Low	1.3318	118.60	1.2174	1.9719	1.1547	0.8066	158.10
04/04/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/04/2007					
5 day 	1.3350	118.22	1.2179	1.9715	1.1572	0.8127	157.82
10 day	1.3337	118.01	1.2167	1.9682	1.1583	0.8100	157.39
20 day 	1.3288	117.64	1.2173	1.9544	1.1652	0.8001	156.33
50 day 	1.3161	119.01	1.2293	1.9550	1.1702	0.7884	156.62
100 day	1.3126	118.67	1.2265	1.9548	1.1645	0.7862	155.77
200 day	1.2926	117.81	1.2349	1.9168	1.1444	0.7721	152.30

USA BAY 19:56 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
thanks PA

pittsburgh pa 19:47 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
I will let you konw something when i see my signal in the EUR/GBP. Im holding buys in the USD/CAD and the GBP/USD.
Having second thoughts on the GBP/USD though...well see

USA BAY 19:39 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
PITTSBURG PA.

Yes the daily looks bearish, a sell at 0.6775, for 0.6690 target. pls let me know when you get the sell signal, appreciate it. tia

pittsburgh pa 19:22 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY

Now the GBP/YEN is in a flat range. NO good signals to buy or sell that pair right now. However the EUR/GBP is getting close to a sell...Maybe tonight.

Van jv 19:15 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:44
/////////////////""Think agree with Barclays that yen can only go down as more and more people discover the benefits of carry trades ."""
feel foolish missing all the years of Free Money season.....Never dreamt they would play this game so long....easy for all those CBs and fig boys insighder club...now when everybody knows, it may be soon over,...may

USA BAY 19:14 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
PITTSBURG PA,

Do you have any views on gbp/jpy today. tia

pittsburgh pa 19:10 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY

I hit my limit yesterday in that trade:) How ever im in a buy in the USD/CAD now limit @ 1.1617

USA BAY 19:07 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
PITTSBURG PA,

What happened to your usd/cad?

pittsburgh pa 19:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Anyone looking to buy the GBP/USD?

Rivonia PipPirate 18:51 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Staten Island AJC 18:23 I prefer Al Bundy's theory that baked beans cause excessive carbon emissions.

NYC 18:44 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
jj London, the next G7 meeting is April 13-14 in Washington DC

USA BAY 18:31 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone care to comment on eur/aud please. thanks

JJ london 18:30 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
the next g7 meeting is 20/21 May no?

Staten Island AJC 18:23 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Well, if you listen to Al Gore excessive carbon emissions cause Tidal Waves.

PAR 18:12 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Since the ever increasing power of BRIC G7 has become irrelevant. G7 Just creates a lot of carbon emmissions .

Staten Island AJC 18:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
From GSFX
The G7 meeting is coming up next week, and already with Canada FinMin Flaherty hinting that the yen weakness will be discussed at the meeting, the market is almost turning a blind eye to this event, which ironically used to be much-watched and much-anticipated headline especially when it comes to touching the yen issue. Would this be the time that the G7 ministers slip the carpet under everyone's feet and decide to intervene? The market has certainly learned its lesson from buying yen on back of central banker comments - so for $/JPY moving south again might take more than verbal intervention this time around. In the mean time, US ADP employment printed weak, which added some comfort to the US bears. As the market anticipate a very key NFP this Friday, we may have another choppy day before getting clearer directions.

hk ab 17:55 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
PAR//The carry spread to chf crosses as well now.

PAR 17:44 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei higher > yen lower . Nikkei lower > yen lower . Crude higher >yen lower . Crude lower > yen lower . Think agree with Barclays that yen can only go down as more and more people discover the benefits of carry trades .

Gen dk 17:41 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mtl JP 17:20 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Risk Is a Many Splendored Thing: Lessons Learned - Fisher

Sofia mik 16:54 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab
usd/jpy , usd/chf

pittsburgh pa 16:49 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Any on have any thoughts where the GBP/USD is heading in the next few hours?

hk ab 16:40 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
have some strange feeling on kiwi staying at .72, gbp 1.97, eur 1.3370 sub level.
pairs making new highs in turn, first eur, then kiwi (as usual), then gbp and aud. Could the last pair be yen and chf?

Mtl JP 16:36 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Mirdiff Mike 16:31 / see link in GVI john 14:25 below

CT Cris 16:34 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:09 GMT April 4, 2007
another new high on eur/chf
===
thks hb I bought accordingly.

Mirdiff Mike 16:31 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
I would like to know the view point on USD/JPY from this forum.TIA

London 16:15 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS were you just Geneva before

hk ab 16:13 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
1.64 in cards.

lonodn ms 16:12 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
last post meant for jd ,sorry

london ms 16:11 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
watching the Cricket mate thats where we are ....

hk ab 16:09 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
another new high on eur/chf.....

New Brighton gvm 16:02 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS ... I am so bored with your 126 swissy, 130 euro calls - dollar heading so much higher - never an explanation as to the basis for your view

Canberra JD 16:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
a/u on a stall. PErhaps some more bullishness tomorrow.

New Brighton gvm 15:57 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD mate stop whinging and get a real broker

Canberra JD 15:54 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
My broker spiked my stop .. Upset.

hk ab 15:51 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
place limit to close aud long .8201......

San Juan Lil 15:44 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Txs, Perrie dear, you are right.

Como Perrie 15:42 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Hello Lil

beware easter liquidity drop

see tuesday

bibi

Dallas GEP 15:38 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Took some more AUSSIE shorts at 8190.....stops above 8200...target 8080

hk ab 15:35 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
any more volatility left?....

Canberra JD 15:35 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Is this the end of the current aud/usd run? It is late into the session, and there has been 110 pips. A little pullback perhaps?

GENEVA DS 15:34 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
I really think this AUDUSD is gonna explode one day.... BUT PROBABLY NOT BEFORE a LITTLE CORRECTION BACK DOWN TO 68.00 ish !!!!!!! Good luck ...

hk ab 15:30 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Kevin//that's very close to the heaven door :P.

pittsburgh pa 15:27 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Buy GBP/USD @ 1.9775 target of 1.9805. Anyone have any thoughts?

HK Kevin 15:25 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:24 GMT, good job on your AUD long this Asian morning.

hk ab 15:24 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
in addition, the tiredness of eur and gbp may signal a reversal on yen crosses imminent. IF G7 makes any strong statement, it is the start of a new game.

hk ab 15:21 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 03:48 GMT April 2, 2007
the possibility of .82 prints earlier than .80 seen is much higher than vice versa.

Now we are very close to this to cause an exhaustion, imvho.

This baby can climb to .84 before the reversal seen...everything works as usual.

NYC beyond_destiny 15:21 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
LA

What's the leverage resulted 660% return? It doesn't make any sense to see the # without knowing the leverage. It could be easier to blow 100:1 account than gain 660% or your acount coul get blown with same strategy anytime, regardless how much 660% you have earned..


London HC

I just closed my position for 5 pips..As I said, the aus move is a bit usual and may lead overall movement of anti-US$...

Canberra JD 15:20 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Next part of australian economy to be hit ~ Tourism ~..

Why? Strong dollar and high product prices.. It is clearly becoming too expensive to visit the sunburnt country...

So where the bloody censored are you? ...

San Juan Lil 15:17 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
There is a triple top on the hourly EUR$ (using the LINE graph) at 1.3376 FWIW

Canberra JD 15:15 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
110 pips low-high on a/u.. VERY unusual for this pair. I would say the thin market would be forcing this.

London HC 15:14 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Destiny, thanks for the clarification.

NYC beyond_destiny 15:11 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
London HC 14:55 GMT April 4, 2007

lot=$100K

Aus just broke 81.8 cents and euraud broke 1.635...Need to be cautious with my shorts as overall anti-us$ sentiment led by aus and gbp

Gen dk 15:10 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Canberra JD 15:09 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Well, right now my only problem with a long position is.. Where to go? I mean, there is that much money in there already, and there isn't TOO much reason to go long on aud... Against usd sure there is reason but to be actually purchasing AUD isn't the most intelligent thing right now.

Should be get over 8200, well.. I would say another 200 pips is possible. BUT right now I would be scared of long positions anywhere.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:07 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 14:39 //
someone here mentioned that last time AUDUSD reached these Highs "things got really ugly"

- I wonder if this recent trend due to real money going for the high int rate - or short covering??

- on Daily chart I see top of channel around 0.8200 -if momentum is strong a breakout can be very strong, no?

UK Alex 15:04 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
[Dow Jones] Sentiment for the USD against the EUR has worsened, according to survey of forex dealers by global-view.com. The three-month ahead mean currency spot rate forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3410 from 1.2998 a month earlier. The EUR/USD spot price at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3365.

dc CB 15:02 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Captain, we're losin' the stox engine, if I can't get her back to full power we won't have enough to break thru 119...she's stallin'at the 50dma

Canberra JD 15:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Other than an a/u position. For the last 4 months I've done nothing but hedge e/u u/chf... And its working nicely ^^

London HC 14:55 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Beyond destiny - is that 4 mini lots or eur400,000? There is a big difference and assuming they are mini lots, better not to mention the amount as it is deceiving (not intentional on your part).

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:53 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Philly CABA,
hi I was just looking Daily EURCHF - it is touching a steep line that was Support - Now turned Resistance (Nov, Feb Lows --break at 1.6165 - then R at mar Hi and now the price is right at it..)
sorry to interfere - hope I this can be added if not seen before... GT!

NYC beyond_destiny 14:47 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
short 4 lot euro 1.3375 t/p 1.3348/1.3322/1.3295/1.326 s/l move to previous once each level reached. current s/l 1.3415. Any suggestion? TIA

USA Zeus 14:42 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Marked 158.60 as a point from where volatility is most likely to increase on e/j.

ny clearer 14:39 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
going for it

Canberra JD 14:39 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
A/U is an out of control freight train

Dallas GEP 14:31 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Caba...yep I would think at this point in time that we would get some buying back of the YEN. Eur/jpy to me seems very toppish.

GVI john 14:25 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Survey Analysis courtesy Cumino...
Click to View

GVI john 14:22 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
April 4, 2007

In the April monthly forex spot rate sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion website, sentiment for the USD against the EUR has worsened. The three-month ahead mean currency spot rate forecast for EUR/USD was 1.3410 from 1.2998 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (April 2 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.3365. The GVI-Cumino Euro bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) was lower in the EUR/USD at 41 from 55 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.

The USD/JPY mean dollar forex spot rate forecast was roughly steady at 116.31 from 116.11 one month ago. The USD/JPY currency spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 117.80. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index turned USD negative to 41 from 55.

Traders expect the price of crude oil (WTI) to close at $65.65 in three-months time from the current spot vs. the previous $61.83 estimate.

In a special question on Fed policy for the balance of the year, 50% expect no rate cuts, 35% expect one rate reduction, and only 15% saw two or more cuts.

For complete detailed survey results including history see monthly forex spot rate survey Results

Phila Caba 14:17 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:27 GMT
eur/chf very narrow also + double top on 1hr eur/jpy (?)

Gen dk 14:14 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:13 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
GEP //
0.6740 is also 38.2 fib...

tnx for the comment - I don't trade now but just observing the setups...

Dallas GEP 14:08 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
kap, my target for eur/gbp is 6790. I think is is range bound between 6750-6800.

Well data help push AUSSIE to 8150 short order, should have left it at 8160!!! LOL

ny clearer 14:07 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
see sl below 60 in usdjpy

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:03 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:33 //
hi GEP,
since you follow EURGBP - can I ask you for a comment -I watch a Daily chart and it bounced right off the 200DMA 0.6747 - how much can we expect this bounce
the 20 DMA (pivotal) is at 0.6770 and can either cap the bounce or a confirmed break can shoot it to the Upper BBand around 0.6850
-Slow Sto and MACD I think favor new test of the 200 DMA - however I will appreciate any comments!!!

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:02 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
US Feb factory orders +1.0%, a recovery from Jan's -5.7% but below expectations for +1.8%.

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:02 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
he nonmanufacturing ISM headline business activity index fell to 52.4 in March
Employment index was soft at 50.8 after 52.2

Bahrain Bahrain1 14:00 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
US March ISM non-manufacturing index 52.4 from Feb's 54.3 and against forecasts for 55.0.

UK Alex 14:00 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
US ISM Mar Non-Mfg Business Index 52.4 Vs Feb 54.3

Canberra JD 13:59 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Throw 1k into an account, and compound, you will have the world economy in about 400 days

la fxt 13:58 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
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USA Zeus 13:49 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Lookslike = =Looks like

USA Zeus 13:48 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Lookslike some flows are about to hit the majors.

Dallas GEP 13:33 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
changed entry point for AUSSIE short to 8150 because I do not think it has the legs to reach 8160 and it appears we have a cap on EURO around 1.3380 area

Dallas GEP 13:27 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Range on gbp/jpy has been unusually narrow in Asia and London thus far indicating IMO that carry trades are setting up for another unwinding IMO.

Halifax CB 13:26 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 13:12 GMT April 4, 2007
True enough, it would be interesting to correlate his speech with the price of gold this a.m.

Lahore FM 13:17 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
third day running,looking for eurusd above 1.3380.right now is another time to make the latest attempt.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 13:14 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
but dont forget when gbp/usd touch 1.9689 will be rejected, but I dont know how long and if broken 1.9689 mean will touch 1.9601 and then be rejected again.
good luck...

madrid mm 13:14 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
maybe we...8-)

The key to making money is not finding the perfect trading strategy that works 100 percent of the time — there isn’t one — but increasing your probability of success and reducing your losses. Luck will only get you so far.

dc CB 13:13 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Iran President says Iran will free 15 Britains as a "gift" to Britain - Reuters

dc CB 13:12 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:03 GMT April 4, 2007
Halifax CB 12:56 GMT April 4, 2007

Whatever...but the guy can move the markets

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 13:11 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
good morning Amerika traders.
gbp/usd will down till 1.9689.
lets see...

madrid mm 13:03 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:56 GMT April 4, 2007

And I only thought Spanish politicians were boring ...LOL
Welcome to the club !!

Halifax CB 12:56 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Teheran MMMT 12:35 GMT April 4, 2007
He's just as boring as our politicians. Good to see something in common between the two sides :)

NYC beyond_destiny 12:47 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
NYC Ed 12:33 GMT April 4, 2007

euro has been rejected at 1.337-338 so many times and the 1.332 was tested once. with rumor of DNT 1.325/1.345. It clearly shows the possible move of 1.332-1.3295-1.326 on one-hr/daily chart. Additional pressure may come from selling of euryen as it is hovering near multi-yr high and break of 159 may utimaltely lead the testing of 160 psy#...

The 159 and 1.337 should be held within two weeks based on my calculation. However, it needs somewhat negative news of euro to get to 1.326, IMHO.. GL

Teheran MMMT 12:41 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA 12:39 GMT April 4, 2007

then I will post link saying -our president dead-

manchester 12:40 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
FTSE artifiicially high. fund managers trying to boost their figures before tax year ends tomorrow

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:38 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:07 //
the mention of Karl Popper was nice -
u must be right about news as they are only noise compared to real money flows that I believe are moving the fx market - whether it's chasing int rate differentials, M&As or Import-Export..

Teheran MMMT 12:35 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   

our president live

NYC Ed 12:33 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny..Hi, what chart is showing DOWN, am I missing something, I really don't want to get caught..Thanks

dc CB 12:33 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Canada's record-setting pace of construction intentions came to an abrupt halt in February, as the value of building permits plunged to its lowest level in a year.

Municipalities issued $4.9 billion in building permits in February, down 22.4% from the second highest level on record in January. The level was 12.0% below last year's monthly average, and the lowest since February 2006. statscan

Bahrain Bahrain1 12:31 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Take care guys.....see u later...time to go home...didn't sleep since last night....Good luck all.

NYC beyond_destiny 12:29 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
It's better to work on euro short, instead of euryen as yen carry seems back in play that buy every downside point of slope to lift to 120/160 area

UK Alex 12:27 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Lanacashire Evening Post: King in energy forecast

Bahrain Bahrain1 12:27 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Analista Fx 12:19 GMT April 4, 2007
Bahrain Bahrain1 12:16 GMT April 4, 2007
Constancio is the Bank of Portugal president ;)

Hi there....
yah...he is a member of the ECB board.

Teheran MMMT 12:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
oil will close the week $8 away from the current price

Analista Fx 12:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 12:16 GMT April 4, 2007
ECB's Constancio notes that Eurozone interest rates remain low in real terms.

Constancio is the Bank of Portugal president ;)

Bahrain Bahrain1 12:16 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
ECB's Constancio notes that Eurozone interest rates remain low in real terms.

Bahrain Bahrain1 12:16 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
The US ADP employment report put private sector employment growth at +106k in March from +57k in Feb and against forecasts for +135k.

UK Alex 12:15 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
ADP-Macroeconomic Advisers See Mar Payrolls +106,000

Dallas GEP 12:14 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
YES Peat, I agree. my timing was off on those AUD/NZD longs by a day.

GVI Forex Trading Tools 12:05 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI Forex Database 12:02 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3331	118.88	1.2222	1.9747	1.1591	0.8127	158.48
High	1.3382	118.93	1.2233	1.9824	1.1599	0.8173	158.85
Low	1.3319	117.73	1.2147	1.9730	1.1550	0.8114	157.36
04/03/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/03/2007					
5 day 	1.3339	117.86	1.2170	1.9688	1.1573	0.8100	157.22
10 day	1.3338	117.91	1.2157	1.9674	1.1580	0.8089	157.27
20 day 	1.3279	117.52	1.2171	1.9523	1.1661	0.7982	156.06
50 day 	1.3153	119.06	1.2299	1.9549	1.1705	0.7876	156.58
100 day	1.3121	118.66	1.2267	1.9540	1.1643	0.7857	155.69
200 day	1.2923	117.79	1.2349	1.9161	1.1442	0.7718	152.24

Canberra JD 11:58 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Still wondering about aud/usd....The daillllly price action says selling will increase... But I dont know.

Gen dk 11:50 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 11:47 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 11:33 GMT// Don't be fooled by the numbers. Just been reading about businesses which are suffering from cash flow problems. Looks like the deflation in the housing sector is sending shockwaves throughout the economoy.

Makassar Alimin 11:43 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
revival of carry trade or not, i am shorting usdjpy here 118.97, even willing to see 120 if it gets there before setting up stop loss

RIC fxq 11:33 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
significant drop in Challenger layoff numbers, harbinger for US unemployment rate in months to come?

Bahrain Bahrain1 11:24 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
ADP Employment changes 12.15GMT. Hold your..... GL.

Bahrain Bahrain1 11:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
keeping the EURYEN and closing the $YEn at b/e....GL.

Bahrain Bahrain1 11:18 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Slovak central bank chief Sramko says crown still overvalued, reiterates will use all tools to stem unwanted crown gains. (Reuters)

Makassar Alimin 11:16 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy 119 seen on this thin market condition, anyone got info as to where the stops to be triggered? above 119.50?

Bahrain Bahrain1 11:09 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Russain names were the sellers of eur$.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:50 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Garganas notes that the ECB growth cycle does not look like peaking yet, and in fact he wouldn't be surprised to see an upward revision to the ECB's 2007 projections.

ECB's Garganas warns that the ECB will act immediately and decisively if needed. He said the ECB must monitor inflation developments 'very, very closely'. He said inflation risks remained to the upside.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:45 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
very strong res. near 119 ....Hope the Yankees take it out. GL.

Auckland peat 10:38 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
ozzie looks a bit stronger than kiwi now GEP.

Dallas GEP 10:28 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Have order waiting to short Aussie at 8160, stop 8220, target 8080/ At this time Aussie might not have enough legs to print 8160 but we will see.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:25 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Buy $YEN if 119.05 broken. s/l at 118.70 p/t 119.40. GL

Lahore FM 10:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
german factory orders rose at 3.9 percent rate against consensus of 0.6 percent rise.

Plovdiv Gotin 10:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Above+1.9760

Plovdiv Gotin 10:17 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
aa 09:00 GMT April 4, 2007
1.9750 is a key. Under-->1.9730/25/15/10/00...1.9665/30/15.
Above+1.9660-->1.9825/35/55/67/80...1.9915/31.GT

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:12 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Long at 158.72 stop below 30 P/t at 159.15

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:04 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Time to buy EURYEN....target 159.15 GL

Sydney 09:57 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
london av 09:41 GMT April 4, 2007
FWIW one local bank I spoke to has bought and sold almost NZD 250 million since the European open.
There is just good two-way business at the moment.

md 09:56 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
i think aussie is going back down....lower highs

mars jupiter 09:55 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
any views on 6months horizon for eur,gbp,chf and jpy

mars jupiter 09:54 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
is euro topping out to re-enter waters below 1.30

Lth th 09:42 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
md 09:13
interesting. I posed a question on futures forum earlier today. If there is any validity to the premise then 1.23-1.27 may be where to aim?

london av 09:41 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
same can be said of NZD/USD. im short from 7190 but just not getting below that

md 09:13 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
any thots on aud/usd keep going to 8190 or wat ....lost mony shorting

PAR 09:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Euro zone feb retail sales 0.3 vs 0.5 expected . Not bad enough to have an impact .

Syd 09:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Euro-Zone Feb Retail Sales +0.3% On Mo; +1.2% On Yr
Euro-Zone Feb Retail Sales Forecast +0.5% MM; +1.2% YY
Euro-Zone Jan Sales Revised To -0.8% On Mo; +1.1% On Yr

aa 09:00 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
does anyone got view on gbp/usd pls?
will it drop or sho0t up?

thanks

PAR 09:00 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
UK PMI 57.6 . Better than expected .

ldn pw 08:45 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
anybody have uk pmi? thanks

Como Perrie 08:42 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
yeap nyny.... but maybe just sort of the LOST serial that expanded onto markets those guessing news news news all the time.. some are good most are uttering non senses writing for profits...this is the fundamental point of news, more than that of economics and fundamentals which short term hardly saying anything, but noise

Gen dk 08:35 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:23 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
German March PMI services index 57.5 from February's 57.2 and an expected 57.4.

Eurozone March service PMI comes in at 57.4 after 57.5 in February, in line with the consensus expectations.

NY NY 08:10 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:07

well said.
But in terms of getting timely data for whatever reasons, they seem to be relaible and accurate.

Lots of posters here seem to ask 'what was ' XXX data'.

Como Perrie 08:07 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
NY NY 07:56 GMT April 4, 2007
Beware exagerate newsreading. As Karl Popper said It makes reality distorted. (and moneys flows from your pockets into brokers ones :)

Lahore FM 08:05 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
correction**

Lahore FM 08:03 GMT April 4, 2007
New Brighton gvm 08:01 GMT April 4, 2007
gvm,we are trading at the top 10 percent of the range.can go 200 pips lower from present 118.80** pretty fast.

Lahore FM 08:03 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 08:01 GMT April 4, 2007
gvm,we are trading at the top 10 percent of the range.can go 200 pips lower from present 116.80 pretty fast.

New Brighton gvm 08:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM if you are around - appreciate your current view on the dollar yen TIA

Syd 08:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Briton 'could stage another September 11'

NY NY 07:56 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
One of global-views sponcers (tradethenews) might be worth the trial for data. They seem to cover all the economic data releases.

Check with jay about them.

madrid mm 07:56 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Sofia, GVI has a calendar i believe
I have this in GMT and the No are actual Consensus Previous
7:55 EUR Germany Service PMI Mar 57.4 57.2
8:00 EUR Eurozone Service PMI Mar 57.6 57.5
8:30 GBP U.K. Service PMI Mar 57.4 57.4
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail sales M/M Feb 0.50% -1.00%
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail sales Y/Y Feb 1.10% -0.10%
10:00 EUR Germany Factory orders M/M Feb 0.60% -1.00%
10:00 EUR Germany Factory orders Y/Y Feb 5.80% 7.80%
12:15 USD U.S. ADP employment Mar 110.0 K 57.0 K
12:30 CAD Building permits Feb -6.50% 11.30%
14:00 USD U.S. Durable goods revision Feb 2.50% 2.50%
14:00 USD ex. transportation revision Feb -0.10% -0.10%
14:00 USD ex. defense revision Feb 2.50% 2.50%
14:00 USD U.S. Factory orders Feb 1.80% -5.60%
14:00 USD U.S. ISM non-manufacturing Mar 55 54.3
17:15 USD Fed's Fisher Speaks

Sofia mik 07:54 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Italy PMI 54,1 VS 56.2 : CON 56,6

Gen dk 07:54 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 07:54 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Different country , different philosophy...
April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Carlyle Group's bid to buy part of Chongqing City Commercial Bank will be rejected as China stiffens opposition to buyout firms on concern they're not adding enough value, three people familiar with the matter said.

Sofia mik 07:51 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm , you have a data due now, paste the number pls.

Como Perrie 07:51 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
EurChf looks bit easter toppish to me here.

So just my two cents tought to drop here.

Have a good day

madrid mm 07:45 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Indeed PAR, indeed. 8-)

-life is simple, people are complicated.-

Ldn 07:31 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2049567,00.html

PAR 07:31 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Yen will not be discussed at G7 meeting . Statement will be repeat of previous statements .Why make life difficult . Lol.

Ldn 07:30 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   

Brown faces new row over EU rebate cut

Como Perrie 07:26 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Morning..



FenghShui Tip I like

Follow the three Rs: Respect for self, Respect for others, Responsibility for all your actions.

Syd 07:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Caution Before G7 Meet Could Stabilize JPY - BoA



Syd 07:17 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Forex Focus: Sterling Likely To Falter Before Hitting $2.00
By Nicholas Hastings
The pound looks set for a break over $2.000 for the first time since 1992.

But, once again, sterling will probably run out of steam before it gets there.

Much is likely to depend on whether the Bank of England hikes interest rates another 25 basis points at its monetary policy meeting that ends Thursday, or whether the central bank waits for the next meeting in May.

Daragh Maher, a senior currency strategist with Calyon in London, warns that the pound could face "a very sharp reversal" if the bank decides to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%.

He reckons that sterling financial markets are more hawkish than many economists and are already pricing in at least a 50% chance of higher rates this week.


PAR 07:01 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
As long as you dont listen to central bankers warnings on carry trades you can make money. Listening to central bankers opinion on currencies ( also on the economy and oil prices) is a recipe for disaster .

madrid mm 07:00 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
fwiw - April issue of Currency Trader magazine is ready to download!
Click here

Syd 06:58 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
The prominent problems plaguing China's economy can increase appreciation pressure on the yuan, China's top economic planner said in a report.

The prominent problems in the economy are an overly rapid growth in fixed-asset investment and credit, and a large trade surplus, said Ma Kai, minister of the National Development and Reform Commission.

Ma made the comments in a local magazine that was picked up Wednesday by the official Xinhua News Agency

Syd 06:47 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
China's Econ Problems May Result In Over-Capacity China Official:Trade Surplus Also Puts Pressure On CNY-Report-

madrid mm 06:43 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
-the conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking.-
J K Galbraith 8-)

Bahrain Bahrain1 06:34 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds good day to u all......
Buy $Yen on dips...target 119.50 then 120. GL

Syd 06:21 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Dow Jones technical analysis indicates EUR/USD bias negative on daily chart: MACD staged negative crossover against exponential moving average to signal sell; stochastic bearish, falling from overbought level. Immediate target 1.3252 (March 26 low), any breach of which would expose downside toward uptrend support line from Feb. 12 low of 1.2939 (now at 1.3221). EUR/USD last at 1.3335.

NYC beyond_destiny 06:08 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
euryen limit sell 158.35/limit buy 158.52

time to re-test either side of week high/low s/l vise-versa

Sofia mik 06:05 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
PAR ,what is situation with strike of harbor workers in France pls ?

madrid mm 05:47 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
April 4 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will slump 5 percent this quarter, the worst start to a fiscal year since 1989, as Japanese invest more of their savings overseas, said Toru Umemoto, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Capital.

Sydney ACC 05:46 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 05:42 GMT April 4, 2007
Canberra JD 05:37 GMT April 4, 2007
30 paid on AUD

pittsburgh pa 05:46 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY

I have a decent sell signal. I also have three tragets 1.1568, 1.1558 and 1.1548. Well see though. GT

madrid mm 05:46 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Mar US auto sales 16.3mn saar down from 16.6mn and 16.5mn expected

Apr crude oil, $64.64, -$1.52 on news of bilateral Iran/UK talks on British soldiers. Oil flat in Asia.

RBA leaves policy rate unchanged at 6.25%.

UK Nationwide consumer confidence +3pts to 88.

EUR/USD trading was a repeat of Mon's session where the range was tight. USD/JPY rallied with stories that domestic investors are back on the hunt for yields. While trading was lacking in breadth and depth, the trading range was significant, extending from 117.74 to 118.85-90. GBP continued to climb amid perception of glowing odds of a BoE rate hike on Thursday. GBP/AUD demand linked to news of Macquarie UK Broadcast Venture's GBP2.5bn purchase of UK's National Grid also supported GBP/USD and weighed on AUD/USD.

Treasuries: activity was fairly restrained, with nothing to stop yields from drifting slowly higher all session, the move under way before the upside surprise from pending home sales.

Equities saw a strong and broad based rally noting higher pending home sales and lower oil prices, and the DJIA closed up by 128.0 points, and the NASDAQ by 28.07

RBA left OCR unchanged at 6.25%. Announcement saw immediate plunge in AUD/USD through stops at 0.8110 to low of 0.8066 from where it proceeds to claw back all of the losses through the remainder of the morning/early PM trade. US names lead the buying (and earlier selling), but with Japanese interest in buying the AUD/JPY dip also noted.

NZD/USD buffeted by swings in Aussie, down on RBA and back up with subsequent AUD recovery.

A little early-Asia day JPY volatility on some (crossed) wore reporting of Canadian FinMIn Flaherty who says he has been speaking with Japanese FinMin Omi and says (according to Reuters) that the yen will not be a specific topic of discussion on next Friday's G7 agenda.

Bloomberg reports somewhat differently, but net impact is slightly weaker yen.

USD/JPY trades just shy of Y119.00 (again) reinforcing belief in decent sized options ko here.

BoJ's Muto confirms gradual policy adjustment, no pre-set timing. Says growth can exceed potential this fiscal year.

EUR/USD very quiet, trades well inside 1.33/1.34 with run off of rumoured 1.3250/1.3450 DNT options this week awaited.

Sharp Nikkei rally (+1.84%) led by exporters, US pending home sales helping ease some worries about housing-led US recession. Equity buying accompanied by JGB selling, futures -0.40 to 133.77, lowest since mid-January.

madrid mm 05:45 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
hello FX Jedi

Toronto MRC 05:42 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 05:37 GMT April 4, 2007

I think we would have to see it drop down towards 8113 to say its topping. imho

Canberra JD 05:37 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
hmmm
i want to say its toppy now.. BUt I couldnt say for now.

Sydney ACC 05:11 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 05:07 GMT April 4, 2007
No, I still reckon wait and see what happens when Europe comes in.
Its gone 30 bid now also on teh back of a slightly weaker USD.
Too risky!

USA BAY 05:09 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
PITTSBURG,

I was thinking we may see usd/cad up with 1615 and 1635 as targets.

USA BAY 05:07 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Does that mean aud/usd will be topping out soon. thanks

Auckland peat 05:07 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 02:11 GMT April 4,
the OZ/kiwi cross really jumps around , need near to 100 pip stops on that one
appreciating your posts tho.

pittsburgh pa 05:06 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Sold the USD/CAD @1.1578 target 1.1548. Ant thoughts?

Sydney ACC 05:04 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
There was a rumour Macquarie was a large seller this morning. I am hearing they sold up to AUD 2 billion yesterday. Deal relates to purchase of a wireless network in the UK for GBP 5 billion. It would be most unusual if the total amount was to be funded from Australia. If that deal has been completed and with the buying that has taken place (I am hearing a French bank was a buyer relating to an option position) today there's not that much topside to hold this back.

Canberra JD 05:03 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
We might play with pivot again like yesterday..

Austin GW 05:02 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
I just posted a question in the Help Forum re: MetaTrader software. Please take a look if you use it.

Many thanks.

Toronto MRC 04:58 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:40 GMT April 4, 2007

And force out some shorts.

Syd 04:40 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 04:35 not sure yet, long way till next meeting so really data dependant now here and USA , have to be careful not being pushed higher to clear out Longs up there FWIW

Toronto MRC 04:35 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:30 GMT April 4, 2007

With the carry flow from audjpy you would think the market had given up it's sanity and was heading for 82+.

Syd 04:30 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie.
Aussie could fall further in the short term, "With the Aussie having touched very important historical levels, today will obviously be a disappointment," he said. "So the risk is that we've got lower to go in the short term."
The Aussie had risen as much as 6.5 percent to its 10-year high in offshore trade on Monday, since a touching a 16-week low of $0.7682 just over four weeks ago after investors unwound riskier bets amid gyrations on global stock markets.
A Credit Suisse report said financial markets now priced in a 50 percent chance the RBA would lift rates by 25 basis points to a 10-year high of 6.50 percent at its May policy meeting.

Sydney ACC 04:23 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:18 GMT April 4, 2007
True enough but its coming from more than one source.

hk ab 04:20 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
aud .82 earlier than .80......

Canberra JD 04:18 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
the price action to me suggests profit taking on the down side we should be set soon for another leg down

USA BAY 04:18 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

A source says buying interest from the JAPANESE

Sydney ACC 04:17 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 04:09 GMT April 4, 2007
Buying cannot be detected from any one source, although mainly emanating from offshore Asia.
Given the selling that occurred yesterday up at the top I wonder whether that will still be there and that Aussie will trade a range of 80/82 cents especially if USD exhibits some muscle. Nonetheless this has been a strong comeback so soon after the announcement.

hk ab 04:16 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
now we come bck to the starting point :D.
trail stop on aud.

USA BAY 04:11 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD,
I echo that, not nice aud, not nice al all

Canberra JD 04:09 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Hmmm,, not nice aud not nice.

hk ab 03:59 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
seems a big order at 158.50 for e/j.

Syd 03:55 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Pound heads back to dark days of 1990
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/03/29/cndeficit29.xml

Syd 03:49 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
US home loan woes threaten debt crisis
By James Quinn, Business Correspondent
Last Updated: 12:33am BST 04/04/2007



A leading fund manager has warned the continued collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market is likely to lead to a "massive" rate of defaults in certain parts of the CDO market.

Francois Bartholemy, a senior fund manager at F&C -Partners, believes the market, once famously described as "toxic waste", will be severely impacted by the current problems in the US.

The CDO - or collateralised debt obligation - market is worth more than £2,000bn globally.
The US sub-prime mortgage crisis has already had a serious impact on both sides of the Atlantic, hitting banks such as HSBC hard, and leading to the -collapse of a number of sub-prime specialists such as New Century Financial, which was once the second largest sub-prime lender in America.

A growing number of British CDOs are emerging - including ones set up by CVC and Permira, although there is no suggestion that they are exposed to the sub-prime fall-out.

Sir Howard Davies, when he was chairman of the Financial Services Authority, once described CDOs as "toxic waste," prophesying the -growing concern in the market for such complicated debt instruments.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/04/cnusmort04.xml

Toronto MRC 03:48 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd
audusd still seams set in recovery mode.

Syd 03:34 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Australian Treasurer Peter Costello Wednesday said the central bank's decision to keep the official cash rate steady at 6.25% shows that inflation remains within its target band.

"Today's decision shows that the inflation target which is 2% to 3% is on track," Costello told reporters.

It is important for the Australian economy to keep inflation low, he added.

"The fact that we have got pressures coming from overseas, particularly in relation to oil and petrol prices, makes that harder but we are very focussed on keeping inflation low," Costello said.

Syd 03:33 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Australia's Costello Says CPI On Target

hk ab 03:25 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
bkk//any new preference?

hk ab 03:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
carry is in the engine again.

hk ab 03:03 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
anyone likes to elaborate the buying on eur/chf?

hk ab 02:57 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
zeus, best day of the week could only be for those in the right direction....

AZUSA 4x-ed 02:56 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:43 GMT April 4, 2007 || Is that Textalk my friend? I sense a bit of a drawl in that statement...

USA Zeus 02:43 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Today could be the best day of the week.

Sydney ACC 02:42 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
I heard Bill Evans of Westpac and rory Robertson of Macquarie. They believe the threats to the US economy might have been what caused the Reserve bank to stay its hand. The March quarter CPI is due before the next meeting, if this soft then its hard to see the justification for a rise notwithstanding other strong data.
Evans' sees the probability of rise in May as an 80% chance while Robertson believes it is less than 50% now with the CPI coming in low as the justification.

Dallas GEP 02:11 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Well that aud/nzd long stopped out at 1.1250. eur/gbp longs still in play along with KIWI shorts

md 01:52 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
so is it still retracing at 8088 tempted to go long.
mybe not right?? thx for ur opinion

Syd 01:45 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Dollar Has Further To Fall-Suncorp

AUD's downward bias unsurprising given its 5-cent rally in the last month was due to likelihood RBA would hike rates today, says Suncorp Metway currency strategist Peter Pontikis. AUD/USD off lows after slump to 0.8066 in wake of RBA's rates-unchanged decision but at current 0.8082 level, is still around a cent below yesterday's intraday 0.8177 high. "We've had about a one cent drop from yesterday's open to this morning so it's not a bad dip but against the five cent gain it's not enough," says Pontikis.

NYC beyond_destiny 01:40 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Short of Euryen hitted initial T/P @158.15 (fibo 38% daily retracement) and miss the re-entry @158.4 while sleeping. Will watch the consolidation within next 8 hrs. Anyone still hold euryen..and t/P

md 01:37 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
hi all
any thots on wat aus/usd is doing
technically is it goin up or down wats d pix like??

hk ab 01:15 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
oilman, are you satisfied with this aud retracement yet?
I longed from 8071.

Syd 00:53 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Australia Mar Performance Of Services Index -3.9 Pts Vs Feb

Australia's services sector recorded slower growth in March due to a softening in business conditions, a performance gauge produced by an industry group published Wednesday shows.

The Australian Industry Group-Commonwealth Bank Performance of Services Index fell 3.9 points in March from February to 50.6 points.

The result was marginally above the 50.0 level separating expansion from contraction. Sales and new orders grew for a third consecutive month, though at a slower pace than in previous results.

Concerns about future interest rate rises and a soft housing market were the chief reasons respondents took a gloomier view of conditions in the services sector.

"The improving tone in the services sector readings evident early in 2007 looks to have stumbled on renewed interest rate fears," said Michael Blythe, chief economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Sydney ACC 00:40 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:13 GMT April 4, 2007
Probably 70/00 will cover the range on the day.
Like Aussie we'll getter a better idea of the medium term later today when Europe enters the fray.
Over the last few weeks both currencies rallied strongly from their lows and institutions such as Citi, Merrils and Swiss names have been buyers. Central banks were sellers further up. So where we are now at 0.8085 and 0.7175 is probably middle of the range. If I were in the shoes of those buyers I'd look to take some profit and try to buy back lower down. It's going to be a month until the next rtae decision so the closer we get to that the more speculation there will be of an increase which will increase the buying. Because we don't get a statement unless there is a change we have to interpret it ourselves.
At these levels the R/R doesn't look as good as it did Monday.

Syd 00:37 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Canada Fin Min: To Discuss Yen With Japan Fin Min Omi


Canada Fin Min: Yen Talks Will Be Part Of General Econ Talks

hk ab 00:24 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
any concerted reaction on e/j reported?

Syd 00:21 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Howard Says Markets Overreacting To Iran

Australian Prime Minister John Howard Wednesday said financial markets were overreacting to the situation in Iran and unnecessarily driving oil prices higher.

Howard said Iran's defiance of the U.N. and the capture of 15 British naval personnel had made markets "very nervous that something big will happen in Iran," a major producer of crude oil.

"I don't believe that nervousness is justified," Howard told 5AA radio station in Adelaide.

"But you know what financial markets are like; they're very fickle beasts and they do tend to overreact to things."

Howard said the domestic retail price of fuel generally tracked movements in the price of crude oil.

The Australian Competition & Consumer Commission has been asked to monitor retail fuel prices over the Easter holiday season.


syd 00:19 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Money Mkt Undecided On RBA's Next Move
Growing indecision in Australian money market on likely direction for next rate call after RBA's on-hold decision, with most-traded June 2007 IB cash future at 93.75, rallying from 93.614 prior to announcement at 2330 GMT, suggesting opinion evenly split over whether RBA will hike rates at May meeting. "We're unclear if it was a close decision and the market is in no better position now as we were going into it," says Andrew Kennedy, credit analyst at ABN AMRO; "I still think people are very, very uncertain as to what happens from here."

USA BAY 00:13 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Your view on nzd/usd and nzd/jpy please. thanks

syd 00:12 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:04 dc CB 00:04 well it depends on your view where its heading , seeing a total split in view hearing a range of 110- 129

Gen dk 00:09 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 00:04 GMT April 4, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:49 GMT April 3, 2007
Japan will remove restrictions on triangular mergers in May which will make it easier for foreign companies to buy Japanese companies...


Regardless of "carry" wouldn't this suggest that the month of April would be devoted to amassing a war chest of cheap Yen?

 




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