Forex Forum Archive for 04/06/2007

Sydney ACC 23:31 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 21:57 GMT April 6, 2007
I keep getting the same story from my bank - Australian exporters are short Aussie they missed the break up and are likely to bid aggressively any of the dips.
While the aforementioned is true not so sure of the latter corporates have a habit of pulling out of the market at times. Last night though most of the orders were to buy Aussie on the dips with IMM orders the major bids down to 8130. Other levels were filled along the way with I believe the majority of the orders filled at 0.8160 hence the support along the way.

dc CB 22:21 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
The frog in the slowly heated water........

The NPR report I'm now listening to regarding the "acceptance" of $3.31 a gallon for regular in California asks the question: what is the new price point at which consumer will begin again to loudly complain....

like a true rising trend - higher highs and higher lows.

Dallas GEP 21:57 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Well with most of the US traders out today, we saw only a modest USD surge but IMO had we a normal work day , the USD would have made a much better showing. Look for that next week. AUSSIE hit support at 8150/60 and didn't have enough momentum to break it. I can see a scenario where AUSSIE tries once again for a sustained break of 8200 but fails again. That scenario is exactly why I closed my current group of AUSSIE shorts because I would like to grab some more from higher up (my average was 8168)

Eur/gbp shorts are still working from 6800. If euro begins shorting some more than eur/gbp will have a tendancy to short with it notwithstanding any GBP dumping.

KIWI shorts still working and those potentially have the furthest to go short with the exception of some of the JPY pairs which all seem toppish to me.

Eur/Jpy shorts are working but potentially could see 160.00 first if we see additional LONGS come into play from this level.

Global-View Research 21:39 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Strong US Job Growth Delays Any Chance of a Fed Rate Cut

dc CB 21:38 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
good weekend all

scroll down past the cows and pigs....IMM COT

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

Halifax CB 21:31 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 13:52 GMT April 6, 2007
Pretty much what we saw yesterday in the Canadian numbers; lots of McJobs and home health care workers, etc, while not particularly bright in the productive sectors. Canadians often crow about their economy, but the similarity reminded me that up here we are a bit like the steerage passangers huddled at the back of the Titanic SS North America as she noses down, feeling proud that we are higher up than the rich folks in the front.....

Atlanta South 19:19 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
If you are still with us, can I get your views on $/Y for early
next week. Whats a good tp level as I am currently long.
Tks & gt

Sofia mik 19:09 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Geneva , I'm sure not have short in usdchf,.
Experience never lie.- I. NUTON

GENEVA DS 18:58 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Sofia....

I like your post... I think this is more contrarian approach than anything else... but it is the way we go I guess... This will be a huge surprise... There are a lot of Short positions in USD CHF and all related crosses in swiss banks... will be fun soon... a good one could be as well AUDCHF for 1.1500... thanks and good weekend

Sofia mik 18:54 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA

sofia mik 04:58 GMT November 10, 2006
Morning forum,
is some one have my view fo next 10-12months ahead.
I am looking on weekly charts and see gbp/chf -2.60/63
eur/chf -1.69-1.71 & usdchf 1.40-1.44
carry traders build strong long from 5-6months ago.

Best Trades for all!

Sofia mik 18:47 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR
Sofia mik 09:12 GMT March 14, 2007
PAR 09:07
no problem for BoJ 2 weeks=400pips

PAR 18:46 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Yen weakness has been story of the week. Other currencies barely moved on week.

beirut jb 18:45 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
thanks guys,

i assume no slippage after nfp at ur end,

well jay i think u should start to think about recommonding that broker

he is realy suck

GL GT

PAR 18:42 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Kampo will go for stops above 120.00 on USDJPY and stops above 160.00 on EURJPY . Perfect storm.

GENEVA DS 18:41 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
USDCHF is breaking away... sellers have stepped away and are looking for the easter bunny... good lord... swiss national bank loves this swissy going down obviously.... makes the chocolate and watches much cheaper abroad.... gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 18:40 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Well JR, i think i saw the donkeys playing in the sand....

USA Zeus 18:38 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 04:31 GMT April 5, 2007
Intensity of the e/y volatility from the 158.60 mark is beginning to accelerate- Directional break is on the horizon.



I wonder if those two donkeys are laughing now?

Gen dk 18:28 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

The Netherlands Purk 18:28 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
The e/j moves in a classic way again like we saw a few months back. I will try to take a short a bit higher than here, and put an s/l of not more than 20 pips for a ride to 159,20ish.... for now it is the ticking to the high thing.

Canberra JD 18:16 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
No problem my end.

beirut jb 18:15 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Hi Traders

hope u r all very well,

since 4 years trading forex i never had 24 pip slippage on euro

my sell stop euro at 13403 filed at 13379

and my sellstop cable 19670 filled at 19649


did anybody exeperienced such thing today??

coz i had a fight with broker and told me that evry body today had such fill

GENEVA DS 16:49 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Weekly closes look not too bad in , USDCHF, EURCHF and GBP CHF... the technical situation looks promising... I will not call for any specific levels this time, as obviously too many people are only looking at the next 20 pips or so... anyway good luck to all and enjoy the weekend .. c u all on monday...

Sofia mik 16:43 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Nice long weekend to all and happy Easter day!

Mtl JP 14:56 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 14:35 - US domestic price inflation has a very good chance of accelerating as foreign usd holdings will keep on losing their purchasing power and the foreigner will demand two-pronged compensation for that erosion:
1) by demanding more of the usd fiatper gadget and
2) by way of higher interest rates on their holding fiat-denominated savings than they recieve now.

Makassar Alimin 14:47 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR, are you forex god? maybe I should listen next time for your calls re. usdjpy, so 120 early next week? :) good job...at least you are right this week and i am wrong

hk ab 14:37 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:50 GMT April 6, 2007
Market action looks a bit like last Friday . Be carefull before USA announces more tariffs against China . Lol .



Par, by all means, page me! :D

Como Perrie 14:35 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Did you thought you know It? Check this out. How much would be f.ex. the japanese inflation by following the FED 's Bank of Dallas important/fundamental, near from the world was flat to global, onto such a change like introducing inflation national counting interdpendence from external-foreign output prices.
Hey, even in economy the world lately has been noticed ROUNDED:)........... took some time eh:)

happy w/e

DALLAS, April 6 /PRNewswire/ -- The debut issue of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Staff Papers presents economic research that finds a new relationship between money, output and prices in a globalized economy.
In "Globalization, Aggregate Productivity, and Inflation," Senior Vice President and Chief Economist W. Michael Cox shows that both domestic and foreign economic growth matter in determining a country's inflation rate.
The first issue can be found at:
http://dallasfed.org/research/staff/2007/staff0701.cfm
"When I was in graduate school, I was taught the traditional Equation of Exchange, which tells us a country's prices depend only on domestic money supply and domestic output," Cox said. "In that world, monetary policymakers could make decisions based solely on factors affecting domestic GDP growth.
With this new model, I show that foreign output can be important to domestic prices, so policymakers can no longer afford to track inflation without regard to others' production. My new Equation of Exchange proves this is the case."
Cox isolates four factors that determine the extent to which external economies impact domestic inflation. Foreign growth matters more to inflation as country size declines, consumers shed their bias for home products, foreign goods become better substitutes for domestic ones and the more effectively
labor displaced by imports can be deployed to other industries.
Staff Papers will examine diverse issues, including globalization and monetary policy, in greater depth than existing Dallas Fed publications. Each issue will contain a single article and be published as an occasional series.
W. Michael Cox bio: http://dallasfed.org/research/bios/cox.html
SOURCE Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
media, James Hoard of Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, +1-214-922-5307, or
[email protected]

RIC fxq 14:15 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 13:52 GMT

no question of that distribution - most govt jobs are not low pay however- I simply point out the absurdity of posting nonsense like that serves an equally biased rebuttal

Dallas GEP 14:13 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Looks like AUD/NZD hit 1.1289 low. Just took eur/jpy short @ 159.54....target 158.37

FW CS 13:52 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Ric
There was a significant number of service sector and govt jobs - like 130K added to that total. Meanwhile the high paying jobs declined again. Longer term this is not helathy for an economy and I yes I do live in the USA

RIC fxq 13:36 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 13:15

.. and exactly which part of the US do you reside in to provide this anecdotal information? As of yesterday at least the brokers/builders/realtors were still riding around in the Lexus SUV's as were the lawyers, medical staffers not to mention the immigrant hispanics in my complex whose wives draw the SUV's/minivans and the have their dually pickups.

don't spout blather like that without first hand knowledge and by the way there isn't a fast food or retail outlet around that isn't starved for help - witness the backed up checkout lines in virtually any of the establishments you enter in the Richmond VA area.

Bodrum OEE 13:34 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
correction, apologies

Bodrum OEE 13:28 GMT April 6, 2007
Dallas 13:08 GMT April 6, 2007
PAR

Thank you for the kind input GEP.

Meanwhile, PAR I (was and) am a USD positive for a while now, (yes) including, in an isolated case, against JPY too.

How market treats this opinion is a different matter altogether (almost in all cases, is harsh on me) (on timing to start with).

I leave now wishing happy Easter holiday to those celebrate it.

Regards

Gen dk 13:34 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Mtl JP 13:30 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm / Not all jobs are $5.50/hr burger flipper and not everyone gonna be living in tents: Ga. recruiter set to make $94K in bonuses - (armytimes)

Bodrum OEE 13:28 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Dallas 13:08 GMT April 6, 2007
PAR

Thank you for the kind input GEP.

Meanwhile, PAR I (was and) am a USD positive for a while now, (yes) including, in an isolated case, against JPY too.

How market treats this opinion is a different matter altogether (almost in all cases, is harsh on me).

I leave now wishing happy Easter holdiday to those celebrate it.

Regards

New Albany mb 13:25 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton--those jobs arent burger flippers-you are way off the mark

Mumbai NS 13:18 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
The bias to buy on dips is apparent but imho feel at these lows in dollar index we are better off holding the bot dollars .A revival in dollar index from here culd be really strong move in the offing next week and clue is probably lying in usdjpy all imho nice w/e gl gt

New Brighton gvm 13:15 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:09 'hefty' is right - 180k burger flippers eating what they flip. This birth/death ratio addition makes it real easy to hide all those real estate agents/mortgage brokers/builders that are now living in tents

Lahore FM 13:09 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
lukewarm reaction in a thin market to a hefty number.let us see how it unfolds.

Dallas GEP 13:08 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Agree with that OEE. Next week IMO will see USD getting stronger.

Bodrum OEE 12:59 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
PAR 12:41 GMT April 6, 2007

It should not be a surprise if the (USD negative to positive) reversal takes place in a rational speed (yet faster than those who think otherwise).

Good weekend to you all

Global-View 12:58 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 12:47 GMT April 6, 2007
from the GVI Survey on Monday...

.." In a special question on Fed policy for the balance of the year, 50% expect no rate cuts, 35% expect one rate reduction, and only 15% saw two or more cuts..."

Mtl JP 12:53 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
platt, how about that: "56 pip reaction in the EUR/USD in the first 20 minutes following the (major) release."

PAR 12:50 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Market action looks a bit like last Friday . Be carefull before USA announces more tariffs against China . Lol .

Ldn 12:44 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Jobless Rate 4.395% Before Rounding

PAR 12:41 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Figures not good enough to turn bearish dollar trend . Also hearing some 1.3350 and 1.3300 Eur options being defended. Have a nice weekend .

GVI john 12:38 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
From GVI. Updated including revisions...

Dallas GEP 12:35 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
closed AUSSIE shorts

Syd 12:31 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
U.S. payrolls surged last month and the jobless rate fell, boosting the odds of moderate, consumer-driven ecomnomic growth and lowering the chances of any near-term reduction in official interest rates.

Outside of manufacturing, payroll gains were broadly based, with construction and services posting healthy increases. Previous months' employment increases, meanwhile, were revised up.

Non-farm payrolls increased 180,000 in March after growing 113,000 in February and 162,000 in January, the Labor Department said Friday. Previous reports showed job growth of 97,000 in February and 146,000 in January.

The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 4.4% last month, matching its lowest level since May 2001.

Average hourly earnings increased $0.06, or 0.3%, to $17.22. That was up 4% from a year earlier, suggesting wages remain an inflation risk.

March's payroll gain exceeded Wall Street expectations of a 142,000 rise. Economists had expected a 4.6% unemployment rate and 0.3% rise in wages.

The jobs data should ease fears that a recent soft patch in data will turn into a more severe economic downturn. Gross domestic product grew 2.5% during the fourth quarter, and recent data including weak housing and business investment suggest growth could be below 2% in the first quarter.

However, with the jobless rate at six-year lows and wages on the rise, consumers should remain well supported in coming months. Consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of GDP, so even modest growth there can offset sizable drags in other sectors.

The jobs data also support recent remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicating that he expects "moderate" economic growth due to "solid" consumer spending.

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 5.25% for a seventh-straight time when it meets next month. Though the Fed recently dropped its explicit reference to the possibility of higher rates, Bernanke told lawmakers last week "we have not shifted away from an inflation bias."

High resource utilization, a nod to the low jobless rate, has been cited repeatedly by the Fed as an inflation risk, and underlying inflation remains solidly above the Fed's comfort zone.

The Labor Department said hiring last month in goods-producing industries rose by 43,000. Within this group, manufacturing firms cut 16,000 jobs - the ninth-straight decline - while construction firms created 56,000, reversing the previous month's weather-induced decline.

Service-sector employment, meanwhile, increased by 137,000. Retail rose by 35,900. Business and professional services companies' payrolls fell 7,000, the first decline in that sector since November 2004. Education and health services added 54,000 jobs. Government added 23,000 jobs.

The average work week was up 0.1 hour at 33.9 hours.

RIC fxq 12:29 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
+180

PAR 12:20 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
What the japanese are winning on USDJPY ,the japanese government is loosing due to capital losses in their Us treasury bond holdings .

Mtl JP 12:04 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
platt / this caveat just popped on my screen:

WARNING: 04/06/2006 8:30 am EST execution
speed & certainty CANNOT be guaranteed. With
increased activity phones will be busy and system
may be slow. Please plan positions accordingly.

GVI john 11:58 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
From GVI... Latest derivatives auction (7:27am) has NFP @ 131K.

GVI john 11:39 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3423	118.73	1.2154	1.9708	1.1506	0.8194	159.37
High	1.3442	119.00	1.2212	1.9770	1.1594	0.8211	159.39
Low	1.3354	118.43	1.2123	1.9670	1.1488	0.8160	158.39
04/05/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/05/2007					
5 day 	1.3368	118.37	1.2176	1.9733	1.1556	0.8152	158.23
10 day	1.3346	118.07	1.2168	1.9687	1.1576	0.8113	157.58
20 day 	1.3302	117.72	1.2167	1.9565	1.1637	0.8023	156.60
50 day 	1.3171	118.96	1.2287	1.9552	1.1695	0.7893	156.67
100 day	1.3133	118.68	1.2262	1.9556	1.1645	0.7867	155.85
200 day	1.2929	117.83	1.2348	1.9174	1.1446	0.7725	152.36

Cape Town 11:38 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Daily ranges on 'normal' NFP days since 2001.

GVI john 11:33 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Mtl JP 11:32 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
ny platt 11:18 / fwiw, a study showed that there was a 56 pip reaction in the EUR/USD in the first 20 minutes following the (major) release. Depending on the nature of the release, the movement could actually range in size from 33 to 124 pips.

But - imo - that is not as relevant as your ability to control (get a fill or pull / square) your postion thru access to your dealer during a fairly ferocious move. Plz mind your risk, as one g-v oldtimer would say.

madrid mm 11:20 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
inflation underlined ...?!?!?!

UN Warns of Extinctions, Water Shortages, Storms Due to Warming

By Alex Morales

April 6 (Bloomberg) -- A United Nations panel warned global warming will cause extinctions to mount, water shortages to spread and droughts and floods to become more frequent as man-made emissions of greenhouse gases cause the Earth to warm.
Click here

ny platt 11:18 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Please, How many pips movement is expected to take place in the Euro/usd pair after the Unemployment Rate and Nonfarm Employment Change is released????

Syd 10:39 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 09:48 I have to say I totally agree with your post, feel the rally in the Aud though is well overdone on Edey's remarks especially since the RBA left rates unchanged, problem is now most banks are in on the act and will try and keep the ball rolling as long as they possibly can to squeeze as much out of this, one bad number and its all over hikes off the table, aussie will have a job breathing up here and the exporting community wont let it - especially as this country is so dependant on exports. China have taken the gloves off with hikes and Japan wont be too far behind although starting at a lower base, problem here is that we are at the top of the rate cycle any more than one and the economy would be tipped into recession and the RBA know it

Bandung co 10:12 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
who knows...but my target level for cable next week at 1.9397...

Sydney ACC 09:48 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd 06:53 GMT April 6, 2007
i have misread the AUD for the last three weeks. I did not foresee the reversal ands certainly its underlying strength. I read Edey's presentation and couldn't see anything in that, that the market interpreted as the change he espoused to looking at inflation month to month and effectively reducing the upper range for inflation. So prior to all of that i was convinced the RBA would be on hold for the remainder of teh year and in fact the risk was if a change occurred it would be a reduction. I could see the problems besetting NSW and Victoria overtaking the rest of the country and recession being a problem. I was wrong there too.
Being wrong on teh direction of the currency and wrong on teh economy I thought listen to the market and it said it was 55-45 in afvour of an increase. So I listened to the market and guess what, yes I was wrong again.
I heard Bill Evans and Rory Robertson on the radio Wednesday and both of them lucidly explained their position. Evans said a raise in May is an 80% probability, Robertson said 50-50. I go with the latter. The main reasons are if the CPI is lower they can't justify an increase no matter how tight the economy is, the second is either the US or globsal economy. I feel the proverbial will hit the fan before the federal election. in spite of how good teh equities market is I've moved 60% of my wife's and my super into fixed interest and cash. The balance remains in a growth fund and Australian shares.
No one knows how much is ion the carry trade, if i run a position with my bank in USD/JPY or I borrow JPY from my bank to finance my share portfolio or mortgage the Bank of Japan doesn't take that into their calculations. My bank can passd the risk off to a party elsewhere.
i've digressed a little but to answer your question directly I think its 50-50.

CT Cris 09:42 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
canmore cyclops 08:55 GMT April 6, 2007
======
19720 above is the buy level
19700 below is the sell level

take profit fast as it may reverse to other side.

madrid mm 09:18 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
fwiw
April issue of Futures & Options Trader magazine is ready to downloadClick here

Bodrum OEE 09:17 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 08:46 GMT April 6, 2007


Thank you for the kind response.

I agree with you that the current situation seems to best serve multitude of international parties. In a pyramid scheme type of bubble building climate that is. Also I suspect it is an end-result (i.e. not a reason).

Thereby I am still curious as to what other possible benefits Japan seeks?

I need to leave now.

Happy weekend.

PAR 09:04 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Strong NFP > weaker yen . Weak NFP > weaker yen . Pure currency manipulation by BOJ and Kampo . Since EURJPY rose 60% the last five years Sarkozy has a point if French car industry wants to survive . Unlike German luxury car manufacturers, French producers are more price sensistive .

Gen dk 08:58 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

canmore cyclops 08:55 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 08:04 GMT April 6, 2007
Florida Crom 07:54 GMT April 6, 2007
==========
big movement will occur positive if the the reading 200k and negative around 60k...i think it will come not far from 130k.
so market may stay weak ...and no big impact.


That is one big spread my friend, my guess is you are right, now where can I by odds on that, and if you want be to explain I will be happy to. .... monday ...over and out

Toronto MRC 08:46 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 07:41 GMT April 6, 2007

The main point I try to make is that the BoJ and all its global counter parts are best served by a market place which allocates resource in the best possible way. The carry trade is still seen as a one sided bet/ almost without risk and is therefore misallocating resources around the globe. It is to the G7's best interest to remind the market that this is a two sided trade.

Aside from that I agree with you Syd and others on many points.

beenen 08:45 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
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Policies for new investment are becoming more important in order to minimize risk, as well as to maintain high portfolio returns. The world market throughout the globe has changed a lot. Among the most rewarding of the markets opening up to traders is the Foreign Exchange market. You can go through many training sites. Fortunately, I bumped into censored while googling, which talks about innumerable training aspects. Moreover, it has identifiable trading patterns, as well as comparatively low margin requirements, have rewarding trading opportunities for many.

Canberra JD 08:41 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Cris, 130k on NFP will be a trend setter in my eyes... It will be the beginning of a reasonable reversal/correction...
Anything below 100k will be a bit whipsawish, but probably resulting in usd remaining very bear.

beenen 08:40 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
A Good Forex Training site
Policies for new investment are becoming more important in order to minimize risk, as well as to maintain high portfolio returns. The world market throughout the globe has changed a lot. Among the most rewarding of the markets opening up to traders is the Foreign Exchange market. You can go through many training sites. Fortunately, I bumped into www.forexboost.com while googling, which talks about innumerable training aspects. Moreover, it has identifiable trading patterns, as well as comparatively low margin requirements, have rewarding trading opportunities for many. censored

Gen dk 08:10 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
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CT Cris 08:04 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Florida Crom 07:54 GMT April 6, 2007
==========
big movement will occur positive if the the reading 200k and negative around 60k...i think it will come not far from 130k.
so market may stay weak ...and no big impact.

ldn 08:01 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:48 GMT April 6, 2007
..and i suppose you are going to say..A I SAID after NFP...give it a break Wasssef...or if you think you are good looking Arab you may want to change your name to ...AS.SIF...lol..

Florida Crom 07:54 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:48 GMT April 6, 2007
nfp..no good reaction ..no good impact


Always good reaction and good impact. But...... if you re on the right side. This time be with the buck, dude. :)

CT Cris 07:48 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
nfp..no good reaction ..no good impact ..in the market.

Gen dk 07:42 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bodrum OEE 07:41 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 02:59 GMT April 6, 2007
Toronto MRC 02:53 GMT April 6, 2007

Hello to you both and all.

Why current (also monetary) policy of Japan seems intact?

Here are some reasons, true or otherwise, coming to mind:

-Preventing a glocal meltdown (where there may be defaults on credit also sourced by the country).

-Exports pricing to remain competitive to further boost growth (and reverse near deflation environment).

-Bank (of Japan and allies, alright, including Kampo) to remain satisifed on a global view the accuracy level of which is almost self-benchmarked (well put PAR?).

Could there be more?

Thanks

Syd 07:21 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Rising euro nears danger level as politicians round on ECB
LINK
The euro has jumped to the highest level in two years against the dollar, nearing the pain threshold that precipitated an Italian political crisis in 2005 and triggered calls by ministers for a return to the lira. A rise in German orders powered the single currency to $1.3441 as traders bet on at least two more rates rises this year by the European Central Bank, narrowing the yield gap with the US. It touched yen159.30 against the yen as funds renewed their bets on the "carry trade", nearing the all-time high reached in February.

Syd 07:18 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
UPDATE: China Central Bank Signals Further Tightening

BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China will boost the role of interest rates in controlling rapid economic growth and asset price increases, People's Bank of China Assistant Gov. Yi Gang said, raising the possibility of further interest rate hikes in the near term.

In a question-and-answer document posted Friday on the central government's Web site, Yi reiterated that the PBOC will focus on controlling liquidity through tools such as interest rates, open-market operations, the reserve requirement ratio for banks and moral suasion. He said the central bank will also study new tools for managing liquidity, but didn't elaborate.

The central bank "will enhance the important role of interest rates in slowing and controlling an overheating economy and asset-price inflation," Yi said.

He added the PBOC will also "study innovative tools to manage liquidity and maintain a reasonable effort to absorb liquidity."

Yi's comments echoed recent PBOC statements indicating that it will take a more forward-looking, and possibly more aggressive, stance in dealing with excess liquidity while maintaining its prudent monetary policy. He said the central bank will make stronger liquidity management a key part of monetary policy.

Economic data for the first two months of this year indicate that China's ballooning trade surplus has led to excess domestic liquidity, raising Beijing's concerns about rapid investment growth and a potential asset bubble in the country's stock and property markets.

China's broadest measure of money supply, or M2, rose a faster-than-expected 17.8% at the end of February from a year earlier.

London 06:56 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
'Terror plot to blow up tourist attractions'
The July 7 bombers planned to attack Big Ben, the London Eye and other tourist attractions, it emerged yesterday, as three men were charged with helping the terrorists plan their attacks

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml;jsessionid=XZ4XZPSGJUFP5QFIQMFSFFWAVCBQ0IV0?xml=/news/2007/04/06/nplot06.xml

Syd 06:53 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 06:49 are you still of the view RBA will hike again this year, seems to me the Currency giving them a lot of help.

Sydney ACC 06:49 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 06:19 GMT April 6, 2007
FWIW she's been saying that for about two years now, at least since I became aware the site existed. In the meantime you could have blown the balance in your account several times. Remember this time last year AUD/USD plumbed 0.7030 and if it had not been for an Asian central bank protecting an option it would have gone much lower given the bearishness at the time. By the way kiwi was below 61 cents at that time.

Syd 06:41 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Mizuho Corporate Bank and other major Japanese banks are preparing to form a credit line of up to Y1.7 trillion for Citigroup Inc. (C) to help fund the U.S. financial giant's bid to buy Nikko Cordial Corp. In what would amount to the biggest syndicated loan in Japan ever, Mizuho, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. and Citigroup's Citibank N.A. "are preparing to provide" a Y1.4 trillion line of credit, with an option for an additional Y300 billion, a source close to the matter said Friday. Such a loan would shatter the previous record of Y1.28 trillion that Softbank Corp. procured last year to buy the Japan operations of U.K. mobile phone operator Vodafone Group PLC.

madrid mm 06:19 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
China has made progress in changing the structure of its foreign exchange reserves in recent years but should continue reform on a cautious and gradual basis, a senior central bank official said in remarks published on the official government website.

People's Bank of China assistant governor Yi Gang said the country's foreign exchanges reserves are invested in a mix of currencies, maturities and monetary tools that has changed in recent years.

He said that the size of China's foreign exchange reserves opens the country up to losses as major currencies fluctuate, particularly the US dollar, and improvements need to be made, including increasing the return on foreign exchange reserves.

He also said that the central bank will work to establish the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) as the benchmark for money markets.

Canberra JD 06:19 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
It was from the link posted by ACC, my view is back down towards the 7000 mark.. Technically.. I see US housing fixing in the near term. Which will boost the USD

madrid mm 06:18 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   

Hello FX jedi

Perth ss 06:16 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 06:07 GMT April 6, 2007
mate..i would say that you have been hanging around those famous Canberra "houses" too long if you hold that view..lol.

Canberra JD 06:07 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
This targets 0.8200 very short term, then 0.8800 and probably 0.9500/1.0000 super long term.

Ouch lol...

Sydney ACC 06:04 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 05:38 GMT April 6, 2007
Here is another one:

http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/TECHNICALS/Index.htm

Sydney ACC 06:01 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 05:43 GMT April 6, 2007
SYDNEY ACC,
I can't comment on Elliott Wave, sorry!
Re AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, for a reversal there has to be a catalyst. I can't see one at the moment.
But if the US economy is in trouble then so is the NZ one. If I remember correctly 18% of NZ's exports go to the US. Australia is about 8%.
NZ's current account deficit of 9% is forecast to decline on the back of exports, but if your prime market is heading towards recession then you'd better start looking elsewhere to sell your produce. Still the market is content to sell the USD for one reason and buy Kiwi for another. Fools Paradise.

Syd 05:46 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Bank of America economist Wang Qing says PBOC statement "doesn't appear to be anything fundamentally new" but comments on interest rates "sound a little bit more hawkish than before." Notes CPI data due out next week and "if CPI comes in at close to a rise of 3 per cent, then further interest rate hikes in April or May will be very likely."

USA BAY 05:43 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Read the article, but do you think that the wave 5 may extend or time for reversal and your view on aud/jpy and nzd/jpy pls. tia

Canberra JD 05:38 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Thanks for the link ACC, Appreciated. I am looking for similar. But with nfp and what not. I am very unsure, no confidence really. I guess I will sit out and catch the remainder of the reversal when it hapens.

Syd 05:28 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:25 yes been watching that one, always the best way to get the reversal is take a long with no stops can guarantee will get you .

but seriously the same on the Aud

Sofia mik 05:26 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Today BIG surprise will be ,if we haven't surprise.

Syd 05:26 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 05: think we may see it lower into NY a few things up next week so may get a pull back prior to it all .

Sydney ACC 05:25 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 05:00 GMT April 6, 2007

You might be interested in this one:

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Range_Continues_but_Fibonacci_Time_1175769277013.html

Syd 05:24 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Jesper Koll, Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch interview
says a domestic recovery will not stop capital spending in Japan Companies they are improving productivity and the competitiveness of the domestic factory stock and setting exchange rates at dlr/yen 80-85 , he says by far the biggest component of japanese asset allocation carry trade is the funding of global banks by funding their risk assets by tapping into zero interest rates in Japan, in his personal opinion US has been doing adjustment quite well and sees fed fund rate staying 5.25 for the next 12 months

Sofia mik 05:15 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Good morning Europe, good afthernoon Asia &b Australia!


http://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/applis/www/RechEco.nsf/navigation/FrameMainInter?OpenDocument&Lang=EN&Mode=12

glgt

Canberra JD 05:00 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
G'day syd? Whats your take on a/u?
The candle on the daily is what resembles a doji. However I have not entered short.. yet..

Syd 05:00 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
China PBOC statement signals continued monetary tightening following yesterday's hike in reserve ratio, raises possibility of further interest rate increases. Central bank declares it will "boost the role of interest rates" in curbing asset price inflation; warns that inflation pressures remain, slowdown in investment and credit growth not yet on firm footing.PBOC Yi Gang: To Use Reserve Ratio To Prevent Inflation
PBOC Yi Gang: To Use Open Mkt Operations To Avoid Inflation
PBOC Yi Gang: To Use Interest Rates To Avoid Inflation PBOC Yi Gang: To Use Moral Suasion To Prevent Inflation

Mumbai NS 04:44 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
FM mrng to u ! what is ur thot on eur/yen frd gl gt

Syd 04:33 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:24 and that is the big if and when it happens , think many are very complacent about high interest rates and the affect on the housing market eventially also gold , analyst on bloomberg comments were very true , once you get interest rates around the world much higher , will be the kiss of death to gold with specs funds moving out.

Sydney ACC 04:24 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd 03:57 GMT April 6, 2007
The carrytrade, particularly tyrough the Uridashis has underwritten the mortgage market in Australia and New Zealand. Through the swaps derived fromm the Uridashis the local banks have been able to hedge their own international borrowings. Without the Uridashis householders with term rate mortgages would be paying higher interest rates. The negative side, as there always is, is that it has also helped to drive property prices higher, notwithstanding distortions created by a biased tax system.

Syd 04:07 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Unwinding of the Yen Carry Trade, Unravels Global Stock Markets
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article516.html

Syd 03:57 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP guest host Jesper Koll, Chief Economist at Merrill Lynch talking to CNBC's Martin Soong. says the banks are using the Carry trades for loans thats where most of the money is going ,



G-7 Likely To Discuss Forex, Including Yen, Global Economy: Omi

TOKYO (Kyodo)--Group of Seven financial chiefs are expected to discuss exchange rates, including the yen, as well as the global economy when they gather for a one-day meeting April 13 in Washington, Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi said Friday.

Mtl JP 03:31 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 03:13, the higher the reserves the lower they will want the yen... gonna loan tha tmoney out again... markets gonna boom all spring, hehe

Ldn 03:13 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Japan March foreign reserves rise to record high
LINK

Mtl JP 03:00 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
whose realistic goal would that be ? I suspect someone would price an option on dlryen 114 - 110, if one asks for it.

Makassar Alimin 02:59 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 02:53 GMT April 6, 2007

unfortunately with current condition, if there is any unwind i am afraid it is gonna be a rapid and brutal one

Toronto MRC 02:53 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 02:30 GMT April 6, 2007
Syd 00:45 /

To limit the rapid increase in the carry trade would be a better objective for the G7. A rapid unwind would be very negative to global markets and not a realistic goal.

Mtl JP 02:30 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:45 / maybe yes, maybe not. Fact is that dlryen pushing 114 and approaching 111 or lower would highly likely glow red on the CBs radar. I don't imagine the europeans are exactly thrilled with the all-time high euryen level either, but for now we live with what we get.

The real issue - imo - is to keep a close eye on whether the market is re-leveraging or de-leveraging its carrytrade at any given time. I believe it is a very HOT topic with the CBs, despite their periodic soothing words about sunshine tomorrow.

Syd 02:16 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 01:56 hi, very true they are quite happy exporting under the radar while China are getting all the stick , love the way the poiticians pull the Fawlty Towers trick

Toronto MRC 01:56 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:45 GMT April 6, 2007
Japan Omi Says Yen Won't Be Main Topic At G7

Because it's not Japan's problem.

Syd 01:02 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
UBS Turns Cautious On EUR; "Sell On Rallies"

UBS turns cautious on EUR, changes its view from a buy on dips to a sell on rallies; "central banks are unlikely to keep buying the single currency significantly at current levels given their holdings of EUR are already high by historical standards." Also says slower foreign reserve accumulation in future will reduce pressure to sell USD for EUR. "There remains clear scope for central banks to increase exposure to the JPY if Japanese interest rates keep rising," it adds. Notes latest IMF data show central banks (in both industrial and developing countries) continuing to gradually diversify their foreign reserves; in 4Q06, proportion of reserves held in USD assets fell to 64.75% from 65.62% in 3Q06

ABHA FXS 00:47 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:31 GMT
2.4035+ sepred +9pips = 2.4044 cap..

Syd 00:45 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
Japan Omi Says Yen Won't Be Main Topic At G7

USA BAY 00:31 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

OK. But the bias is to the downside than to the upside. I think 2.4050 will cap it for now. What do you think. tia

ABHA FXS 00:27 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:51 GMT
I SEE 2.3520..

ABHA FXS 00:25 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
SHORT LIMIT AUD/JPY at 97.18 THAN 97.40 FOR 2 POSTION.

Stop is 98.06

Targets are 93.90 / 93.10 / 91.20 / 89.50

Risk is 97 pips

Reward is min 340 pips

RRR is min. 4.5

Confidence level: good

Accuracy: good

Reward / Risk Ratio : good

Global-View Research 00:02 GMT April 6, 2007 Reply   
US Dollar Slips to 2 Year Low Against Euro ahead of Payrolls