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Forex Forum Archive for 04/07/2007

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Sydney ACC 21:02 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Van jv 20:15 GMT April 7, 2007
Investors want the best return for their money.
Would you rather invest your money in GM, Ford or Chrysler (America's past) or in Microsoft, IBM, Intel and Google(America's future). You need to protect your's and your childrens' futures, not adhere to some outmoded economic theory whose roots are entrenched in a pre-World War 2 enivironment.
China if not already able will in a couple of years have nuclear powered submarines capable of delivering ICBM's which would knock out most of America's industrial capacity.

Sydney ACC 20:52 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Are the storm clouds beginning to appear on the horizon for the Kiwi? Could these be some of the reasons the Kiwi might start to fall against the dollar?
1. The Reserve Bank promised to find alternatives to the OCR to try and constrain demand. Last week it was reported they had lobbied the major banks to raise term interest rates. Eight per cent of home mortgages in NZ are set on fixed rate terms insulating borrowers from rises in the OCR. In recent weeks term interest rates have risen strongly. Two-year fixed mortgage rates have risen to around 8.9 per cent, up about 60 basis points compared with around 8.3 per cent at the bank's March monetary policy statement and 7.47 per cent last year.
2. Over the next twelve months NZD 33 billion of fixed term mortgages will fall due for renegotiation or renewal.
3. Borrowers face significantly higher interest rates. Westpac economist Donna Purdue says there has not been such a big jump in retail mortgage interest rates since 2003 "and that's definitely going to have an impact on the housing market". Higher term rates and a higher Kiwi add to the reasons for the Reserve Bank to stay its hand on an increase to the OCR.
4. There are about $3.6 billion in maturities in August and $3.9 billion in October, the New Zealand dollar had never faced such a huge maturities schedules. It will be interesting to see whether it will be able to generate enough fresh issuance to offset that, but at present conditions for urdidashi demand still remains favourable.
5. But will conditions for uridashi issuance remain favourable? An interest rate increase in Japan between now and then may prove detrimental. Economic storm clouds in the US where NZ sell 18% of their exports and an interest rate increase in Australia, where 23% of NZ’s exports are destined may reduce exports and aggravate the current account.
NZ’s 7.25% cash rate and high bond rates make it an attractive destination for the carry-trade. Conditions can change rapidly last year the Kiwi fell from above 70 cents US in January to below 60 cents in June.

Van jv 20:15 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC-5/31
Re-"the path being taken by manufacturing in the USA is similar to that already done by the UK and Australia...... "

greed of corporations and shortsighteness of some nations , "all now" philosophy.....keep amazing me---
do they ever ask what will happen during inevitable major conflicts, pandemics, communication disruptions, wave of nations left without an adequate industrial or agricultural base will fare and survive ...can see conflicts and hyperinflation ahead,...

NY NY 19:22 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Daniel. The ECB does not release minutes or breakdown of its vote. It is not transparent olike

Daniel Paris 18:21 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Silverthorne AL 17:35 GMT April 7, 2007
Daniel Paris. Look at the ECB website

Does not work, but thanks for this information

Silverthorne AL 17:41 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 22:21 GMT April 6 re Gas/Petrol prices
This is a question I have asked extensively in my recent travels in the U.S. The answer I get consistently is 5 bucks. Understand that the car is a necessity not a luxery and if you have to ask what mpg you get from a car then you cannot afford that car. we are far from the pain level imho

Silverthorne AL 17:35 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Daniel Paris. Look at the ECB website

Daniel Paris 17:01 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Hi to all !
Please explain me how can I find minutes of the last decision of ECB ? Need to know votes !!! and resolutions !!

Macau Sofia 13:44 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Short of the month, USD/YEN 120.00/50, EUR/YEN 160.00/50.

Makassar Alimin 09:47 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
for short term early next week, i think short gbpusd could be put into play up to 1.9708 with stop above 1.9730/40 for 1.9580 at least, if that breaks then from seller point of view 1.9280/90 is the next target

Sydney ACC 05:31 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:58 GMT April 7, 2007
there are three issues as I see it:
I think you need to ask yourself whether the market's view of the USD has changed following Friday's NFP. That may tell you the upside for Aussie after all its the offshore institutions who have been the main drivers this time around. That to me is the most important question going into next week
Secondly what keeps niggling me is the AUD 5 billion a month current account deficit and the money flowing overeas from superannuation. Currently a lot of people are taking advantage of the tax window on super which means part of the money invested flows into offshore equities unhedged.
No one knows the duration of the money thats flowed in whether its here to take advantage of the equities market or the interest differential, but definitely some of it is hot money, so as the momentum wains that may get repatriated.
Thirdly the tail that wags the dog, the Kiwi. It looks to me that Kiwi is starting to show atmospheric strain up here it just doesn't seem to show the reslience between 7200 and 7250 that it did lower down. If others start to feel the same then there could be profit taking which would hit the Aussie as well.
The cross for example is quite stable these days despite the Kiwis interest differential advantage.
As always in forex trading the outlook always seems easier to judge in theoiry than in practise. I would have preferred euro to close below 1.3360 and record a lower close for the week. Fundamnetally I think the dollars pretty good the sub-prime mortgage market looks to be contained, the path being taken by manufacturing in the USA is similar to that already done by the UK and Australia. Go to the Midlands in the UK and you will find an industrial wasteland, 50 years ago the UK was the major motor manufacturer in the world, nowadays it doesn't own a mass producer. In Australia a whole generation of textile,footwear and clothing workers were thrown out of work. They now work elsewhere. Uneployment in both countries is at 20/30 year lows. The transition in the USA is working.
The FX market doesn't believe the story.

Dallas GEP 01:58 GMT April 7, 2007 Reply   
Great post ACC. What would you suggest strategically???? . I had even considered longing AUSSIE from here then riding it back down from 8200 to 8120 and then longing it again. it seems to me the path SHORT will be very choppy and perhaps in 40 pip increments.


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