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Forex Forum Archive for 04/09/2007

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USA BAY 23:46 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
MELBOURNE QINDEX,

DR Q, When you have the time could you share your analysis for aud/jpy and gbp/jpy please. thanks

Gen dk 23:40 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA BAY 23:34 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
HOU RJ,

LOL, THANKS.

Melbourne Qindex 23:30 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in the frequency chart of my monthly cycle the projected chart point at 0.8010 and 0.8193 has the same frequency numbers and this would indicate that the market can easily move between these two points, 0.8010 - 0.8193. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above 0.8193. The normal trading range of my monthly cycle is 0.7827 - 0.8377. On the other hand speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8010.

============================

The daily upside targeting points are 0.8169 and 0.8187. The moving targeting range is 0.8071 - 0.8092

HOU rj 23:30 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Bay
Check u r mail
u r name suggestes u r deadly
lol
rj

Syd 23:22 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
New Zealand business confidence slipped into negative territory in the first quarter of 2007, although firms' own-activity expectations improved, according to a private sector survey published Tuesday. The NZIER's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion shows that a net 15% of surveyed businesses expect general conditions to deteriorate over the next six months. In the fourth quarter, a net 3% of businesses expected conditions to improve.
In seasonally-adjusted terms, a net 3% of firms expect business conditions to deteriorate over the next six months, compared with a revised net 7% of businesses expressing similar pessimism in the previous survey. censored

Gen dk 23:21 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HOU rj 23:17 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Iwill look at it

Philadelphia Caba 23:17 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:50 GMT
thanks!

USA BAY 23:13 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
HOU RJ,

I just sent an email to you

USA BAY 23:05 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Gep. gt/gl

Dallas GEP 23:00 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
No BAY, I am fairly certain it will pullback first.

USA BAY 22:58 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

YES FM, I was thinking the same too.

USA BAY 22:56 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

EUR/CHF, 1.6320 seems to be key support. the dallies seems bullis but heavily o/b, do you think the 1998, 1.6500 will print before any pullback. tia

Lahore FM 22:54 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
BAY,gbpjpy likly headed lower from Zeus' mentioned 234.10.

Lahore FM 22:51 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:44 GMT April 9, 2007
GEP as you know the buy side on this cross can work in a number of ways but basic assumption is that nzd would be softer than aud.it could be tht they rise at a different pace.i have noted the mentioned range.it has been here since forever one might say.time to correct higher.

Dallas GEP 22:50 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
caba, I would be a shorter at 1.6400 for a 1.6320 target

Dallas GEP 22:48 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Let me look at eur/chf closer because it has gone longer than I thought it would.

USA Zeus 22:46 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Let the chatty Cathy check with his father in law where GBP/JPY printed at 22:18
Over and out.

Dallas GEP 22:44 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
FM, I would assume you think that nzd will short at a much faster rate than AUSSIE???? The current trading range has been 1.1350- 1.1270

HOU rj 22:43 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   

I do not understand what these guys talking
If i go to the bank and ask for a deal which is not printed , do I feel my father In law is sitting there to give a price

Lahore FM 22:36 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:27 GMT April 9, 2007
audnzd now 1.1330, looks set for 1.1580.
----------
bought some.

HOU rj 22:35 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
try to trade a printed price rather than a printable price
lol

USA Zeus 22:31 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:23 GMT April 9, 2007

GBP/JPY volatility up or down??

The Volatility should increase for some big price swings even if some believe that it is "Impossible to trade period"
Out for now
GL GT


Lahore FM 22:27 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
audnzd now 1.1330, looks set for 1.1580.

HOU rj 22:26 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GUppy opened at 234.14 at 21 gmt trading now between a range of 20 with a spread of 9-12
Impossible to trade period

USA BAY 22:23 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

GBP/JPY volatility up or down??

USA Zeus 22:20 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Marked GBP/JPY 234.10 as a point from where volatility is likely to increase.

Auckland peat 21:58 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
ACC
yes I believe situation is similar here in NZ where economists believe OCR increases have started to work
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=10433208

Philadelphia Caba 21:56 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GEP,comment on eur/chf pls?

Dallas GEP 21:49 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Well I suspect there is some reluctance to short AUSSIE from here because some of us including me are waiting for another spin up to 8200 level but I am not so sure we are going to get it. May just take a short if 8190 area is seen.

Eur/jpy shorts are not doing a whole lot either but I suspect that will change as we get into asian session. Carry trades also should see more action then as well ; particularly gbp/jpy.

Syd 21:30 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 21:22 gdmg, that would be excellent a need is there to detache the two

Sydney ACC 21:22 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Syd 21:11 GMT April 9, 2007
Reserve Bank has done some work encouraging banks to increase term interest rates since the last OCR announcement. The two-year rate has incresaed to 8.3 per cent from 7.47 per ecnt. I also read over the weekened there is about NZD 33 billion of fixed rate mortgages due for re-negotiation this year.
I'd say some people are in for a shock.
Could possibly remove the need for further OCR increases.

USA BAY 21:22 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Thanks hou rj

Syd 21:11 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Generally stronger USD should limit topside for NZD/USD this week, says Bank of NZ FX strategist Danica Hampton, despite expectations local data like today's Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion will remain NZD supportive, reinforcing notion RBNZ has "further work to do if it wants to contain medium-term inflation." Adds market likely to become "increasingly nervous" about carry trades heading into Friday's G7, which should provide further cap to any NZD/USD gains.
BNZ

HOU rj 21:10 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Yes I do have, but it is not fair , but if the situation warrants I do not mind giving u
Pls get my e-mail from the admn
rj

USA BAY 21:04 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
HOU RJ,

Do you have the website foe the e book pls. tia

USA Zeus 21:04 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Well...Took more gains on GBP/USD @ 1.9625. Will hold remaining for a chance at something bigger.

new york 21:00 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
what time does tokyo open

Philadelphia Caba 20:59 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
not bad r/r on eur/chf short now, cross looks very stretched ... + g7..

HOU rj 20:55 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
USA bay
Yes
In case u r not profitable in u r trading now U may consider to read the Book of Igrok, odds of ..............
I believe he was an old hand here
In case U can not afford to buy the book according to u r situation now , u can get it free by E-book and send him the money when u r able

USA BAY 20:45 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
HOU RJ,

You had a short signal for aud/usd? thanks

GVI Forex Database 20:40 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3357	119.28	1.2261	1.9615	1.1525	0.8167	159.34
High	1.3388	119.39	1.2284	1.9650	1.1596	0.8175	159.60
Low	1.3340	119.15	1.2218	1.9594	1.1503	0.8152	159.26
04/09/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/09/2007					
5 day 	1.3370	118.97	1.2211	1.9694	1.1542	0.8166	159.07
10 day	1.3356	118.32	1.2182	1.9683	1.1556	0.8129	158.04
20 day 	1.3324	117.86	1.2161	1.9596	1.1617	0.8056	157.05
50 day 	1.3188	118.87	1.2275	1.9553	1.1683	0.7911	156.75
100 day	1.3142	118.72	1.2260	1.9567	1.1646	0.7876	156.01
200 day	1.2935	117.87	1.2348	1.9186	1.1450	0.7732	152.49

HOU rj 20:40 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Bay
I normally keep it till I get a reverse signal
but I do never allow positive to negative

USA BAY 20:33 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
HOU RJ,

Whats the tp for aud/usd pls. tia

GVI Forex Trading Tools 20:27 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

HOU rj 20:27 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
shorted aud/usd at 0.8175 stop at 0.82230 on a 4 hr TF

USA Zeus 20:02 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
More @ 1.9622

USA Zeus 19:52 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Easy does it- Sliced more GBP/USD gains at 1.9617

Geneva Jaques 19:42 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
USDCHF short need s/l above 12350 for many figures down

IQQ AV 19:37 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
yes i have been here long time
We have broken the trendline on the CHF so if it goes below 1.2225 level we would be really good for the downside

USA Zeus 19:27 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:49 GMT April 9, 2007
Bought GBP/USD 1.9591


Took some gains @ 1.9615

Lahore FM 19:25 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
IQQ AV 19:18 GMT April 9, 2007
then i think you have been a member here for many years.earlier you would write the city name in full.

IQQ AV 19:18 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
South America/ Chile

Lahore FM 19:08 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
IQQ AV 19:06 GMT April 9, 2007
yes fingers crossed!where is IQQ?

IQQ AV 19:06 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Lahor FM u are very correct if today we close below the 1.2268 level we are looking for a downside in the CHF

USA Zeus 19:04 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:55 GMT April 9, 2007

FM-Thx friend. The drill down struck a lot of gains on what must have been a surprise attack.

GT as always :-)

Lahore FM 18:57 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 18:47 GMT April 9, 2007
never mind,was reading it absent mindedly i guess.the slow market's effect i think.you meant daily close below 1.2000 changes the usd picture in the long run.agree too.

Lahore FM 18:55 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:51 GMT April 9, 2007
good trade there.guess trading oil like that is as good as having an oil well!

Lahore FM 18:52 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 18:47 GMT April 9, 2007
quite agree.by the by you mean daily close above 1.2200,right?gtgl.

USA Zeus 18:51 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Fun to watch these guys linger trying to square out and cover in oil

GENEVA DS 18:47 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Lahore...
do agree with you... may be the USD needs another try to the downside, i.e. 1.2150 ish... or 1.3500 ish EUR and probably 1.99 ish in cable... but I do firmly believe that the dam at 80 in USD INDEX will not break this time and we will then have a good USD rally for several years... ! but yes.... right now, let s take some profit in USD CHF but we should NOT forget to reenter pretty fast on the next 120 pip down move... all things would change with a daily close below 1.2000... gl gt

HOU rj 18:44 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
sold some eur/jpy on a yearly TF risk reward 1:10
rj

Lahore FM 18:30 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 18:00 GMT April 9, 2007
DS,a day close above 1.2270/80 area can really make a lot happen for usdchf upside but presently the path looks constricted and if it does not go beyond this level soon then the hopes for stronger usdchf would be dashed indefinitely imho.the possibility of such a close as of now is really slender although we are trading quite close.

USA Zeus 18:17 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil 61.60 now working into a SAR

USA Zeus 18:08 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil 61.70- Taking the loot!

GENEVA DS 18:00 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Sofia...

indeed.... swiss chocolate industry will even profit more after easter... chf will go much lower over time... I guess 1.260o USD is around the corner pretty fast.... but even more scary will be EURCHF 17500 ish or GBPCHF 27500 over time ... gl...

USA Zeus 17:57 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil 61.85-
Me thinks it is time to take some loot off the table.

Amman Cris WFAK 17:57 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris

what about a bull when you wear red underwear?

USA Zeus 17:56 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
May oil 62.98 LOL

Gen dk 17:50 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 17:46 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
eurchf very close to my 1.64 target after aud reaches 0.82.....

then, we will wait for the long consolidation done.

right now, gbp wants to make a turn.

Sofia mik 17:42 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 18:41 GMT April 6, 2007
USDCHF is breaking away... sellers have stepped away and are looking for the easter bunny... good lord... swiss national bank loves this swissy going down obviously.... makes the chocolate and watches much cheaper abroad.... gl gt

it seems you & me are insiders!

London 17:42 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070406:MTFH24868_2007-04-06_19-59-12_N06571045&type=comktNews&rpc=44

CT Cris 17:37 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:39 GMT April 9, 2007
Cris, if you short gbp, let us know.....
=========
I shorted it when it was 19645 and exited at 19610.
I have open position , short eur.jpy @ 159.56.

Makassar Alimin 17:20 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
being aggresive, i think stop could be brought onto 1.9638 on short gbp, since if hit we will likely see better level to sell or aggresive SAR, gl gt

USA Zeus 17:11 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
With oil down more than $2 barrel, gold whipping around etc it is hard to think that the "markets are flat and lackluster"

Makassar Alimin 17:05 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
consider taking some profit here as it is within 10 pips of first target, run the rest for potential breakdown further to second target with stops brought to profit zone

Makassar Alimin 09:47 GMT April 7, 2007
for short term early next week, i think short gbpusd could be put into play up to 1.9708 with stop above 1.9730/40 for 1.9580 at least, if that breaks then from seller point of view 1.9280/90 is the next target

NYC beyond_destiny 17:04 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Euro long 1.3345 T/P 1.3395

USA Zeus 17:04 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil 62.10

The Netherlands Purk 16:52 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Before of after you consulted Sandcity?

USA Zeus 16:51 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil 62.45 LOL

USA Zeus 16:49 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Bought GBP/USD 1.9591

USA Zeus 16:47 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Oil 62.65

hk ab 16:43 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
something should be under the table.

USA Zeus 16:42 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
May oil 62.85

Sofia mik 16:35 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab
that is what I meen.

hk ab 16:35 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
don't you find no complaints from EU after e/j just surged to 159.xx in weeks time?

hk ab 16:34 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
I think no one cares chf crosses but definitely, something is brewing in yen and yen crosses.

Sofia mik 16:34 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
NYC
ok,
glgt

NYC beyond_destiny 16:33 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 16:30 GMT April 9, 2007

I was talking about yen regarding G7...

Sofia mik 16:30 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
NYC
but chf crosses are no target for G7 meeting .

NYC beyond_destiny 16:29 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Any suggestion on current movement of CHF? TIA

NYC beyond_destiny 16:28 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 16:19 GMT April 9, 2007

Yen crosses are high and G7 meeting is approaching. Game as usual...talk, no talk, lip effect, buy on dips...

Usd/XXX are all (multi)-yr-high and lacked of liquidity to push higher...I don't trade eurchf very often, especially can't get a clue at current level...It looks like we gonna see 1.1/1.16 of Swissie sometime this year.

My guess is directional move is likely coming on Wed. I don't trade chf cross...

USA Zeus 16:21 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Looks like May oil is setting up to attack the $63 handle

USA Zeus 16:20 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Will look to buy GBP/USD after it slips a bit underneath the 1.96 handle.

Sofia mik 16:19 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
NYC
very strange ,seems like directional move is all xxx/chf crss long.

NYC beyond_destiny 16:01 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Market is just narrowly range bounding. Seems no directional move before Euro open...

hk ab 15:59 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
zeus, well agree with that indicator.
I didn't go long if he is not so sure to go short......on gbp.

USA Zeus 15:56 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:51 GMT April 9, 2007

ab- Nothing done since pulling the 1 fig counter-contra CT Chris educational directional break on cue.

hk ab 15:54 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
gold and gbp in tandem today.

London NYAM 15:53 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Should be one more (probably tepid judging from the momentum here) attempt at 119.50 before going down on USDJPY. Probably by the end of NY trading. 118.30-50 area likely target. Still no clear trend developing as far as i can see.

Anyone have an opinion on the gap formed from 3 Apr 117.97 to 4 Apr 118.72?

hk ab 15:51 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
zeus, did you work hard on your favourite e/j?

New Brighton gvm 15:27 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus - always look to young turks like yourself for that eternal life jacket - guess you must be long dollar yen

USA Zeus 15:17 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
"...47 years old and still asking"...

Like a drunken sailor lost at sea

New Brighton gvm 15:01 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 14:50 ... fine

moving on - dollar yen divergence on 4 hour charts is astounding at this point in time [and has been all day here in Aussie] - any one disagree with my call on the MACD and 21-3-3 stochs ? massive yen purchase from a techinical point of view in my humble, pathetically uninformed, bigotted, terrorist supporting, anti bush/howard point of view - oh bugger there I go again

New Brighton gvm 14:51 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
year end '07 we will all be sitting and looking gar-gar at the carnage - but hey what the censored do I know - 47 years old and still asking

GVI john 14:50 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
OK enough...

New Albany mb 14:48 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
google yourself dude--your bias is wrong

New Brighton gvm 14:45 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
New Albany mb ... google the word ' failure '

Mtl JP 14:44 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
gvm 14:16 / In the land where it never rains and whose citizens don't eat, only walk and are never sick, the increase in cost of living is, well, apparently moderate.

Friday 13th's PPI might turn out bit peski raising the issue of manufacturers' ability to pass along cost increases to the Consumer, something the FED calls "inflation" - part of stable prices mandate.

New Brighton gvm 14:40 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
New Albany mb - what did you pay ? How many foreclosures in your 'burb this quarter?

hk ab 14:39 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Cris, if you short gbp, let us know.....

New Albany mb 14:38 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
real estate in my area is doing fine-bought a new house last year in a new subdivision and new houses are steady being built all around me

New Brighton gvm 14:36 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
london carl 14:26 - birth/death ratio is a major component of the NFP figure - easily manipulated - google it and see what I mean

New Brighton gvm 14:33 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
New Albany mb - so hows the real estate market in New Albany these days ?

slv sam 14:32 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 14:13 GMT /
usdcad may be we saw the low for the year!GT

New Albany mb 14:31 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
new brighton--dude you are full of bs

london carl 14:26 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Can you explain birth/death "manipulation" - i thought NFP was actual jobs created number. Thanks

New Brighton gvm 14:16 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
so lets see where we all sit after the Lord Jesus has risen yet again - still have a stalemate war in the middle east - still have a ridiculously indebted global reserve currency - still have anglo real estate markets insanely overvalued - still have the Asians giving their money away so they can fund the selling of their crap to someone - still have manipulated US employment numbers - 128000 of the 180000 are birth/death manipulations [ie meaningless] - oh yeah right - dollar bullish - give me a break- sell the piece of censored that it is

ABHA FXS 14:15 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
LONG GBPJPY 234.00 FOR 200 PIPS STOP 233.00

Gen dk 14:14 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

HK REVDAX 14:13 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Any view on $/CAD? Tks

madrid mm 13:45 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Easier to trade the news, isn t it ? lol

Zzzzzzz

PAR 13:27 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Euro being well supported at 1.3350 and 1.3325.Stops above 1.3400 .

HCM-VN 13:03 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Anybody think EURJPY lost strength today? I'm on short

kl anita 12:55 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
955+ tomorrow or after tomorrow

GVI john 12:48 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Calendar page just fixed..

Spotforex NY 12:39 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Mo HK

The site moderators just put a link in below for economic data

GVI john 12:14 GMT

GVI john 12:39 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
MO- See
GVI john 12:14 GMT April 9, 2007
below

Como Perrie 12:38 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
New York Bank Prop 12:31 GMT April 9, 2007

AudJpy talking while this ends to print Its highs, might start to establish longer leg into 83 somewhere this year, sooner or later.

MO HK 12:36 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Can someone please tell me when the next us data will be released?

New York Bank Prop 12:31 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
It would seem that the risk on the week lies in AUD/USD and AUD crosses. With Aussie having lost 50 pts from its highs, a barrier having been taken out at .8200, and it looking very exhausted on every chart, it would seem that AUD crossses should begin to steal the show this week. Profits are profits and AUD crosses for the last few weeks have been a one way trade. Things are starting to turn over a bit and we should all be mindful of AUD/CHF, AUD/CAD, and AUD/JPY.

.9370 = AUDCAD break lower
.9925 = AUDCHF break lower
96.25 = AUD/JPY break lower

I target a move down in AUD/USD to .8080 in the next 8 trading days as a topping formation unfolds. Sell rallies from .8178 up to .8195, with a stop loss resting at .8219.

GVI john 12:14 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 12:13 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3371	119.32	1.2218	1.9648	1.1500	0.8157	159.54
High	1.3432	119.39	1.2225	1.9721	1.1534	0.8200	159.68
Low	1.3364	118.69	1.2149	1.9638	1.1499	0.8153	159.24
04/06/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/06/2007					
5 day 	1.3371	118.68	1.2188	1.9728	1.1549	0.8165	158.68
10 day	1.3354	118.20	1.2171	1.9691	1.1565	0.8123	157.84
20 day 	1.3315	117.78	1.2161	1.9581	1.1626	0.8041	156.83
50 day 	1.3180	118.92	1.2280	1.9553	1.1689	0.7902	156.72
100 day	1.3138	118.69	1.2260	1.9562	1.1645	0.7872	155.93
200 day	1.2932	117.86	1.2348	1.9180	1.1448	0.7729	152.43
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


CT Cris 12:10 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
kl anita 09:30 GMT April 9, 2007
sell gbp now.we will see.
===Anta..what is your target ,pls,tia.

PAR 11:50 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Looks like a lovely week for carry trades with BOJ meeting weakening the yen further and G7 not discussing currencies .

madrid mm 11:46 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
With international tensions quieter and the U.S. economic outlook firmer, the new week is likely to bring talk of risk trades. But then agian......8-)

Sydney ACC 11:34 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Here is an article published last week in The Economist. Many Australians would testify that it describes their view of the domestic economy quite well.

http://economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=8931798

London NYAM 10:44 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Although dollar bears came up with the usual set of objections arguing that the birth/death adjustment added 128K jobs to the headline number and focusing on the fact that most of the jobs were created in the lower paying retail sector, the undeniable truth of the matter is that for the time being Friday’s data contradicted the dollar doomsday scenario and stopped the euro rally in its tracks.
from: http://biz.yahoo.com/censored/070409/1176110426688.html?.v=1

kl anita 09:30 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
sell gbp now.we will see

London 09:13 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Voters' scathing verdict on Blair legacy
LINK

hk ab 09:00 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
gbp is abnormally tame.... want to try a long, anyone seeing the same?

PAR 08:34 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
I dont understand why the Chinese like last year wait for Easter monday to buy heavily into base metals and sent prices limit up. Or could it be hedge fund market manipulation in thin volumes ?

London NYAM 08:03 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Seems like an interesting week ahead. The NFP indicates that a rate cut is highly unlikely and that may have a negative effect on equities. This added to potential downgrades on earnings estimates going forward for the new quarter may put the bind on enthusiasm for stocks not positive for the dollar. Still we are on the higher end of the range on the dollar especially vs the Yen. The Eur looks like a good buy buy the yen looks like it wants to test 119.50 and shoot for the high end at the 120 handle. I'm short at 119.10 but and it looks like there is plenty of resistance at the 119.40-50 space. Does the market think that a rate rise in the offing. Not really judging from the yields? Still very flat in yield land.

Gen dk 07:27 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland peat 07:13 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Speaking of manipulation Kiwi again seems to be acting as GEP has described , out of synch that is. Tis hard to see whether AUD/NZD is driving force tho.

Makassar Alimin 06:46 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 02:13 GMT April 9, 2007

[email protected], the pair is so manipulated that soon we would throw away all the technicals :)

madrid mm 06:14 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Monday, Apr 9, 2007
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
-- EUR Easter Monday - FRA/GER/ITA/UK/Scandi/Swiss Markets Closed -- --
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR) -- 49.2
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR) -- 52.1
22:00 NZD NZIER Business Opinion Survey (1Q) -- 3
23:30 AUD AiG Perf of Construction Index (MAR) -- 51.7
Tuesday, Apr 10, 2007
GMT Ccy Events Consensus Previous
-- JPY BoJ Target Rate (APR 10) 0.50% 0.50%
1:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR) -- 3.4%
1:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence (MAR) -- 12
1:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions (MAR) -- 18
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate (MAR) 3.1% 3.2%
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate seasonally adjusted (MAR) 2.9% 3.0%
6:00 JPY Bank of Japan Monthly Economic Survey -- --
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR P) -- 16.5%
6:00 EUR German Trade Balance (FEB) 15.0B 16.2B
6:00 EUR German Current Account (euros) (FEB) 10.6B 11.0B
6:00 EUR German Imports seasonally adjusted (MoM) (FEB) 1.0% -1.8%
6:00 EUR German Exports seasonally adjusted (MoM) (FEB) 1.1% 0.0%
6:30 JPY Bank of Japan Governor Fukui to Hold Regular Press Conference -- --
6:30 AUD Foreign Reserves (MAR) -- A$68.2B
6:45 EUR French Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB) 0.6% -0.3%
6:45 EUR French Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB) 1.5% -0.6%
6:45 EUR French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB) 0.7% -0.5%
6:45 EUR French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB) 2.1% -0.1%
11:45 USD ICSC-UBS (APR 7) -- 0.3%
12:55 USD Redbook (APR 7) -- 0.9%
13:30 USD Fed's Mishkin Speaks at Bridgewater College in Virginia -- --
14:00 USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (APR) 50.0 50.8
17:20 USD Fed's Fisher Speaks at Community Luncheon -- --
21:00 USD ABC Consumer Confidence (APR 8) -- -5
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales - All Stores (YoY) (MAR) -- 5.6%
23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales - Same Store (YoY) (MAR) 3.9% 3.3%
23:30 USD Fed's Plosser Speaks in Delaware -- --
23:50 JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (FEB) -0.4% 3.9%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (FEB) 0.8% 2.6%
23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD (YoY) (MAR) 1.2% 1.1%
23:50 JPY Broad Liquidity (YoY) (MAR) 2.8% 2.7%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending (YoY) (MAR) 1.3% 1.3%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Banks (YoY) (MAR) -- 1.4%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Banks Adjusted (YoY) (MAR) -- 2.4%
23:50 JPY Current Account Total not seasonally adjusted (Japanese Yen) (FEB) 2300.0B 1194.4B
23:50 JPY Current Account Total seasonally adjusted (Japanese Yen) (FEB) 1690.0B 1848.5B
23:50 JPY Trade Balance - Balance of Payments Basis (Japanese Yen) (FEB)

dc CB 06:13 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
so from the indications in the futures markets, the friday positives are being sustained...Dow up , S&P up, NAS up.

But since there was no CASH trade on Friday... it's still a crap shoot. imho

Montreal E.K.A 06:10 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Can someone please paste me the economic calender showing monday and tuesday, for some reason i cant enter the page thank you

madrid mm 06:00 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
April 9 (Bloomberg) -- The euro's rise has taken analysts by surprise and traders expect more gains as the region's economy grows and interest rates climb.

Investors in futures have $15.9 billion more in bets on the euro strengthening than on a decline, data from the Washington- based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show. Options traders are paying more for the right to buy euros than to sell the currency.

Traders sending the euro toward record highs are clashing with economists, who predicted in December that the currency would trade at $1.328 by the end of the first quarter and fall 1 percent to $1.305 this year, according to a Bloomberg News survey. They stuck to their calls in March, saying the euro would weaken to $1.31 by 2008.

``The euro's the safest bet,'' said Peter Lucas, who's been buying euro forwards as chief investment officer at Ashburton Ltd., which manages $1.7 billion in Jersey, in the Channel Islands. ``We let the market do the talking.''

madrid mm 05:59 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
might add some weight in the fx market medium and long term ?!?!

Climate change-All washed up-Apr 6th 2007-From Economist.com
As the evidence of global warming proliferates, so do the nasty consequencesClick here

madrid mm 05:48 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
The next few days-The coming news-the economist

What may be making headlines.....Click here

Bahrain Bahrain1 05:46 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 10:12 GMT April 4, 2007
Long at 158.72 stop below 30 P/t at 159.15

+40 pips done. GL

Bahrain Bahrain1 06:34 GMT April 4, 2007
Hi Frnds good day to u all......
Buy $Yen on dips...target 119.50 then 120. GL

Almost there. GL
Unfortunately I'm flat.

madrid mm 05:46 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

Downwonder-The “lucky country” may not be so for too much longerthe economist

Sofia mik 05:35 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/04/09/wegerman09.xml

dc CB 05:09 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
the world except for the US pagans... are orbserviing Easter....

so go out and make a s*h*i*tload of money :)

Toronto MRC 04:53 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
My platform still down. Amazing they are too dumb to post their holiday hours.

New Albany mb 03:51 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad looking like a buy on 3 hour chart for around 1.1620 target with stop 1.1490

Syd 03:37 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
China May Hike RRR 200 Bps More By End-07 : BoA

China may hike banks' reserve requirement ratio another 200 bps by year end, says Wang Qing, currency strategist Bank of America in note. Says 2 of 3 RRR hikes this year aimed at draining liquidity after PBOC transferred treasury deposits to commercial banks November-December; so PBOC not as aggressive so far, as frequency of RRR hikes may suggest. But risk to forecast is establishment of new State Foreign Exchange Investment Company, which will invest part of FX reserves. How SFEIC acquires its FX assets - direct transfer from PBOC to SFEIC books or purchase FX via bond issuance - will impact future liquidity, he says

tx 03:18 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
caba :
whats your view on nzd/usd?

thanks

Baltimore Zoltan 03:10 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
new york 02:43 GMT April 9, 2007
what time does tokyo open:

It opened about 3 hours ago.

new york 02:43 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
what time does tokyo open

HK [email protected] 02:13 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Yen chart gave a signal that price may rise to the 120-121 range. It all depends if you believe the last US NFP, was really positive.

Reading into it's components, things do not look so encouraging.

All that on background of the subprime mortgage problems and it's wider influence. I think bankers may not go for a stronger USD, and short term traders may treat the technicals suspiciously.

new york city 01:30 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
what time does tokyo open

Toronto MRC 01:11 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Baltimore Zoltan 01:01 GMT April 9, 2007
Toronto MRC 22:04 GMT April 8, 2007

My platform is still closed but thanks.

Baltimore Zoltan 01:01 GMT April 9, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 22:04 GMT April 8, 2007 :

Markets are open, e.g. my platform lets orders through, but there is very little volume. AU is closed, so will be most of Europe for Easter Monday. Best wait until NY open, IMHO.

 




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