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Forex Forum Archive for 04/10/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Gen dk 23:45 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 23:32 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Foreign Net Buy Orders On 300,000 Japan Shares
[Dow Jones] Offshore accounts at 13 foreign brokerages place small net buy orders for 300,000 Japanese shares overnight, according to trader. First day of premarket net buying may be positive for market at open, although yen value basis of figures unknown. Buy orders total 43 million shares, with sell orders amounting to 42.7 million shares.

Atlanta South 23:19 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY chopping around, but now seem down after giving me
a nice ride up. Sliced out those, now lets see if down works.

Philadelphia Caba 22:46 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
The AUD/USD opens in Asia looking very bid after heavy buying by real money funds, as the AUD continues to bask in the glow of a swath of potentially AUD- positive M&A flows. Besides the Cemex takeover of Rinker worth around 17 BLN AUD there is ongoing speculation that KKR will launch an even larger bid for
Australian retailer Coles. ifr.

Syd 22:38 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
NZ shares likely to open "flat to marginally lower" as high NZD, threat of further rate hikes "almost certainly" mean market will underperform neighboring Australian market, says First NZ Capital research director Barry Lindsay; says NZD near 0.7300 will continue to act as "restraining influence" on companies deriving earnings from offshore, including Fisher & Paykel Healthcare (FPH.NZ), Fisher & Paykel Appliances (FPA.NZ); adds some stocks that have so far escaped currency effects, such as Rakon (RAK.NZ), Pumpkin Patch (PPL.NZ) may also start to feel pressure if NZD strength vs USD continues long term. First NZ

GVI john 21:58 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3425	119.11	1.2180	1.9717	1.1474	0.8257	159.91
High	1.3457	119.36	1.2271	1.9750	1.1530	0.8260	160.10
Low	1.3350	118.76	1.2144	1.9672	1.1460	0.8160	159.05
04/10/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/10/2007					
5 day 	1.3389	119.02	1.2203	1.9688	1.1518	0.8192	159.36
10 day	1.3364	118.44	1.2186	1.9688	1.1546	0.8146	158.29
20 day 	1.3335	118.00	1.2162	1.9618	1.1603	0.8078	157.37
50 day 	1.3197	118.81	1.2268	1.9556	1.1677	0.7922	156.80
100 day	1.3147	118.75	1.2259	1.9573	1.1647	0.7881	156.11
200 day	1.2938	117.89	1.2347	1.9193	1.1452	0.7736	152.55

GVI john 21:55 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Syd 21:40 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Watchdog fears hedge funds behind 'phantom' takeover talk
The Financial Services Authority has launched a probe into suspicious share price movements involving leading British companies rumoured to be takeover targets. Officials fear that hedge funds or other investors may be spreading rumours purely to extract financial advantage.link

Syd 21:33 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Rising euro nears danger level as politicians round on ECB
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The euro has jumped to the highest level in two years against the dollar, nearing the pain threshold that precipitated an Italian political crisis in 2005 and triggered calls by ministers for a return to the lira.

A rise in German orders powered the single currency to $1.3441 as traders bet on at least two more rates rises this year by the European Central Bank, narrowing the yield gap with the US.

It touched yen159.30 against the yen as funds renewed their bets on the "carry trade", nearing the all-time high reached in February.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/06/cneuro06.xml

USA BAY 21:23 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Could you comment on eur/aud pls. thanks

London 20:54 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USD

The US economy is very strong and has surprised the analyst community to the upside lately, brushing all housing-related worries aside. The yield in the currency is currently not likely to be coming down and that should be supportive. Additionally, the much stronger than expected labor market data on Friday should be a supporting factor, but it is a cause for concern that the USD has not been able to hold on to its gains. Short-term, that's a negative.
JPY

Eternally weak? We think the current weakness will continue until AUDJPY reaches 100. But that should be a good selling opportunity, as our MR model is about to give a signal (around 99), of the cross goes that high. Figures out of Japan have still not surprised to the upside, but the big question is if this is beginning to be priced in (the trade-weighted JPY index has now fallen 14 percent in the last year alone).
AUD (and NZD)

The strongest trends and the highest yielding currencies, but with both CHF and JPY looking to come back with a vengeance from a Mean-Reverting perspective, the trends might be overexhausted within the next couple of trading days (at the current pace of appreciation). Still, we are bullish until mid-week, but bearish thereafter (the MR model will guide us).

S.a. x .o .bank

Sydney ACC 20:48 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:34 GMT April 10, 2007
With the capital flows slated for the AUD one would normally expect AUD/NZD to appreciate. This is not the case. What is more the Australian current account is only slightly more than half of that of NZ.
I am dumbfounded by the strength of the Kiwi. What else can one say.
Given that the exchange risk on the Rinker deal lies with the shareholder this takeover is going to underpin Aussie for weeks/months to come.

Dallas GEP 20:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
In the last 600 pip rise in KIWI, there have been only 2 significant pullbacks. One was approximately 110 pips and the other one was approximately 60 pips. Other than that it has been a one way street long. At this point in time I am not sure what will make it short but when it does I expect for it to be a significant one of at least 200 pips. I have already been stopped out twice on shorts but I am not adverse to trying again. technically it is WAY over bought NOW but I am not sure it matters. This KIWI reminds me alot of when the BOJ was toying to a certain extent with usd/jpy back some 4-5 years ago.

NYC 20:32 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
IMF warns subprime woes may spread, dollar falls

Syd 20:29 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Russia questions Iran's atomic advance statement
LINK

RIC fxq 20:23 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 18:55 GMT

glad to hear you are such a supporter of hers but she is as tainted by corruption and cronyism as any politician but that is a subject for discussion on the POLITICAL forum.

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:52 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 17:21 GMT //
hello - I see you are monitoring the open interest I guess in futures??
If that is correct, may I ask where such info is available. I'm under the impression that only the COT can give this info - re % long VS. % short...
tnx in advance.

Bodrum OEE 18:55 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:16 GMT April 10, 2007


I thank you for kind wishes.

Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives will do good (or at the least, better than those -hopefully yet to be convicted also in justice), if one could not mind swings in the meantime.

I leave now wishing all health and happiness.

ABHA FXS 18:48 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 18:38 GMT April 10, 2007
Bodrum OEE 18:34 GMT April 10, 2007
====
u can take my e mail and contact me ,i will give u indctorts to show u how the gbpjpy top cap 235.60+ sepred than will drop to 232.97

thanx

USA BAY 18:38 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS,

Same question on gbp/jpy, why the change in view. tia

Rivonia PipPirate 18:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Yeap, a large feather in EU ZORRO's cap today.

Bodrum OEE 18:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 16:56 GMT April 10, 2007

LONG LIMIT USDCAD 1.1458
STOP 40 PIPS
TARGET 1.1609
=====
SHORT LIMIT EURJPY 160.00
STOP 40 PIPS
TARGET 158.30
=====
LONG LIMIT USDCHF 1.2108
STOP 40 PIPS
TARGET 1.2580

----------------------------


Are you me with timing skill (forgive me, dreaming is a human right) ? I follow your posts. Thank you
(a question if you kindly could respond; you were long on GBP/JPY as could be seen below and what made your view to change in specifics in such short timeframe?)

ABHA FXS 18:28 GMT April 10, 2007
SHORT LIMIT GBPJPY 235.50/60
STOP 235.90
TARGET 232.08

ABHA FXS 12:08 GMT April 10, 2007
ABHA FXS 14:15 GMT April 9, 2007
LONG GBPJPY 234.00 FOR 200 PIPS STOP 233.00
---------
New Target 237.20+
censored

ABHA FXS 18:28 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
SHORT LIMIT GBPJPY 235.50/60
STOP 235.90
TARGET 232.08

hk ab 18:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
so quiet today.

Ldn 18:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   

Roma Fans Clash with Cops

USA BAY 17:43 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

This top picking in aud/usd and nzd/usd has been going on for months. the more we pick the top, the higher the levels, as if it is challenging us. HAh, you donkeys wrong again, see if you can catch me. LOL

hk ab 17:40 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
anyone long dlr/chf from 1.2140 bottom? revdax?

PAR 17:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Think if Trichet raises euro interest rates before the French elections he will be out of a job .

USA Zeus 17:35 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:28 GMT April 10, 2007

LOL- Well sure there are some that are doing Travis Pastrana like double backflips while others have fought it tooth nail and acct balance.

hk ab 17:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
wanted to short aud and kiwi very much here. discipline prevents.

USA BAY 17:28 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

CORRECTION, Why is KIWI higher. LOL

AUD/USD going higher is understood, rinker,cemex, uranium at record high.

USA Zeus 17:26 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Can just about do barrel rolls inside the pipe of GBP/JPY as the waves increase in intensity...

Canberra JD 17:26 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Now looking at 4 hour aud/usd charts. Having nothing but trendlines, stoch and 20 sma 30 sma.. It appears that we are heading for a top. However, we are unable to see it just yet..Currently flat.

USA Zeus 17:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Topic here during the early asian session will be all about why kiwi can't go higher (sound familiar?) and dumbfoundedness about AUD/USD's advances...

Canberra JD 17:21 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
I closed all a/u longs. The problem right here is. No steam at alll. Some corporate crap coming soon, can the bears start a run. Futures positions are currently at 78% bull 22% bear. Which is an improvement of this mornings 91% bull 9% bear.

All major options are in the market for now. However I want to find a good dip to buy again on.

USA Zeus 17:08 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Ab- Not leaning on GBP/USD at the mom. Am working oil- It is coiled and ready for a crack after yesterday's gift. GL

hk ab 16:57 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman and Zorro, thanks very very much.
currently working on gbp. and a small chf position.
Gold is of my greatest interst.

ABHA FXS 16:56 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
LONG LIMIT USDCAD 1.1458
STOP 40 PIPS
TARGET 1.1609
=====
SHORT LIMIT EURJPY 160.00
STOP 40 PIPS
TARGET 158.30
=====
LONG LIMIT USDCHF 1.2108
STOP 40 PIPS
TARGET 1.2580
=====

EU ZORRO 16:54 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:39 GMT //.......162 short term....180 in next year...

Monaco Oil man 16:52 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Hello , AB.

Just posted on the other side ...

Have stopped looking for long $ , as there was nothing to really take profit in my shorts $ positions but discretionary thoughts...
Paid them , and back to shorting US$.
Interesting one ,i am looking at right now is the US/CAD..
We reached the first critical point at 1.1440 area, from here, break below calls for a new all time high...Interesting indeed!


Monaco Oil man 15:31 GMT April 10, 2007
Interesting , my monologue view on $/CAD is approaching the first critical level under it, we go to the New all time low :
--
06:54 GMT May 27, 2004
Thank you for your views, I will then share ours.
Our systematic approach on the $/CAD is currently to be shorting the $/CAD 1.37-1.39.
Ideally targetting low 1.2's.
On a technical analysis side, we note several trending indicators which possibly indicate further strenght in Canadian dollars.Some of this indicators are currently as bearish as $CAD 1.60,However signals do change (we were Long $cad from lower levels before the break 1.3870)and we'll stick to the value of the signal until our risk limits are hit (sorry if that is obvious.)
As for the fundamentals for the strenghtning of the Canadian dollar, I (personally) feel the surge in oil prices will be a big part of it.
---
Cannes Oil man 14:49 GMT February 23, 2007
Now this is interesting , cause here we are at 1.16, and i have the same exact indicators playing with one at 3416 while it was at 1789 in may 2004..It shows the upside volatility strength (when it goes down vol reverses to the downside , it's now doing so)..
It's hard not to think in terms of high and lows , cause once 1.14 breaks this on the weekly designates $/CAD coming up with a new all time lows coming in the months ahead.

Dallas GEP 16:50 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Well as a medium term trade I have an order to SHORT KIWI at 7320 if seen.

Rye,NY et 16:42 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Rye,NY et 22:48 GMT April 5, 2007
Eur/Usd...basis dailies...On my charts, the major Trendline Resistance line intersects the horizontal of the 1.36xx All-time High on Tuesday, March 10th...
------------------------------------------------------------
In my view, the market is clearly in a short-term uptrend. That trend will not change until the T/L Support is broken. After today, T/L Resistance lies above the High. Draw a trendline from yesterday's low through the low of March NINETH. That line is T/L Support. Draw a vertical through today's candle to 1.3670. At 1.3670, draw a Trendline parallel to T/L Support. That is T/L Resistance. That will give you a clear picture of the short-term pattern. Then, draw your own conclusions...All, as usual, imvho...GL/GT

hk ab 16:39 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Zorro? you meant 162 or 180? LOL....

EU ZORRO 16:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Hi all.....hope you enjoy your holidays....!!!!

...finally 160 print in EURJPY.....I will let it go more 2 fig....

hk ab 16:30 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
aud/jpy reaching 100 historical mark soon.

hk ab 16:10 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, wonder if you have started the mission on gbp shooting yet or not. v. tempted to short this baby here.

USA BAY 16:03 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Seriously where is nzd/usd heading to . seems like it is unstoppable. as for aud/usd do you think it will retrace bach to 8215 after 8250 or move more up. tia

Sofia mik 16:01 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:56 GMT April 10, 2007
MIB again?
soon, soon MIG /men in green/

hk ab 16:00 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
oilman, looks like you are having an easter break.

hk ab 15:56 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
MIB again?

Sydney ACC 15:56 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 15:21 GMT April 10, 2007
FWI the guy who leads the National Party, the main opposition party in NZ, used to be a merchant banker, stated last week he thought Kiwi was headed for 80 cents.
Trouble is all the data suggests it ought to go lower. There's been a number of articles in the NZ Herald over the last week if you are interested.

Sofia mik 15:47 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Mirdiff-
all xxx/jpy on 4h charts are in DOWN move.IMHO

Mirdiff Mike 15:45 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Does it mean in common terminology that yen will weaken

Sofia mik 15:42 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Mirdiff Mike
all xxx/jpy on 4h charts are in down move.IMHO

Mirdiff Mike 15:37 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Whats the outlook for $/Yen

USA Zeus 15:37 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 15:30 GMT April 10, 2007

Good point. Better to be cold as Ice(man) and stay above the hard deck- no need for a showy tower flyby.
-Z-

NYC beyond_destiny 15:33 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Loonie long stopped at entry 1.15...re-bought at 1.147 t/p 1.163 s/l 1.1445 close Fri if either side was hitted. Move s/l to entry if reached 1.1489

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:30 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:16 GMT April 10, 2007 || Afterburners may be used for propulsion or for visual effects... the $ index seems to be up creek, but it appears to still have a paddle.

Dallas GEP 15:21 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
great info ACC. YEP NZD/USD has got to be the most over valued pair currently but it has VERY difficult to make any money shorting it. Once again the market can remain illogical longer than one can remain in it going the wrong way. lOL

USA Zeus 15:16 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Call it the Pelosi Power Effect (PPE) as EUR/USD streaks past the Stagnation mid point like an F-22 Raptor with full afterburners engaged-

USA Zeus 08:46 GMT November 9, 2006

”…See a Pelosi/Reid EUR/USD @ 1.32-36 possible whenever that may be.”

Now will she get ticked and cut off the jet fuel funding or will her madness fuel the fire???

slv sam 15:15 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
starting to sell euro against everything is very very attractive med and long term..it is a bargain trade indeed!GT

Sofia mik 15:11 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
short euro 52

London NYAM 15:09 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Stocks turning lower and bringing down the buck with it...

hk ab 15:05 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
GC Martin, are you around to comment on this late eur movement? pretty surprsing right?

Sofia mik 14:59 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 13:56 GMT April 10, 2007
sorry it must be171

may be you think that Trishe have intention to buy japanes car?

Lahore FM 14:48 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
euro can be on a jet fuel driven streak on crosses and might initiate a few reversals and some continuations.

Lahore FM 14:47 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:43 GMT April 10, 2007
yes sure.if no jawboning as precursor to g7 comes from eurozone officals just now we might have 160.50 as a friend here had noted earlier.

USA Zeus 14:43 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
FM- Since you are on the EUR inflections perhaps adding e/j 160.00 as a point of interest would confirm your views. :-)

USA Zeus 14:40 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 14:09 GMT April 10, 2007

yw- Best of trades to you on your path to success.

Lahore FM 14:39 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
2nd point of inflection for eur crosses now.let us see what it does for eurusd.

Bodrum OEE 14:09 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:15 GMT April 10, 2007

Thank you. I am wrong, yet again. I appreciate the clarification and your following kind words:

"I view this forum as a melting pot opportunity for sharing and learning".

I wish all of you a good week.censored


Sofia Kaprikorn 14:09 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bond Spreads - A leading indicator for forex

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/05/041305.asp

as I often see john posting bonds and int rates data here - they started to make more sense to me after this article.

RIC fxq 14:02 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 13:56 GMT

much better ;-)

EU theEUROqueen 13:56 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
sorry it must be171

RIC fxq 13:56 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
EU theEUROqueen 13:54 GMT

glad to see at least one pessimist out there :-)!

EU theEUROqueen 13:54 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
happy day Bob!

i like ur 1,7**for the EUR/YEN!!

and the Euro at 1,4**-1,45**is (overvalued) but not at 1,34**

happy trade

Sofia mik 13:54 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
london phil 13:51.>>> G 7

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:52 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 13:41 GMT April 10, 2007
Bahrain1, well technically usd/cad should bounce long from 1.1450/60.

Thanks GEP....
Have a great day GL.

london phil 13:51 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
very nice extreemly large ascending triangle on 4 hour gbp /jyp break down out of that sure would be fun

RIC fxq 13:46 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 13:37 GMT

you could very well be right but circumstances this year are quite different than last as EURUSD in that sub 12700 general opinon was undervalued whereas today the opinion is 13400 is overvalued - this among "fundie" or macro analysts rather than technicians. Also
EURJPY which has been a driving force behind EURUSD was more than 1600 pips lower.

Just my opinion of course and not refuting you. Cheers!

Lahore FM 13:41 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 13:37 GMT April 10, 2007
seems likely.

Sofia mik 13:41 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC , but aud ,nzd fall 700-800 pps vs usd&euro

Dallas GEP 13:41 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain1, well technically usd/cad should bounce long from 1.1450/60.

Sydney ACC 13:37 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Could we be about to embark on a similar trading pattern that occurred last year after the Easter break.
Last year Good Friday fell on 14 April. Between 14 April and 12 May EUR/USD appreciated from 1.2110 to 1.2957 and GBP/USD rose from 1.7506 to 1.8946, neither pair showed any significant daily reversal in the trend along the way.

Dublin Flip 13:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
But with WA and Queensland booming and ASX up 10% in the past 12 months (while other countries are only up 1.5/2.5%) not much of one though-LOL

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Where is Van Gecko...need $CAD view plzzzzzzzzz?

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Costello says strong AUD a problem for exporters. (Dow Jones)

London NYAM 13:23 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dollar looking tired. Eur paving the way fro a break to 1.3441 high. 1.3480 is crucial for the next few days.
USDJPY breaking down for second leg on hourlies: should be a a run to 118.30-50 now.

The Netherlands Purk 13:23 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:55 GMT April 10, 2007

And i TRUST that you are the same person as WTF hourly...

In the meantime pattern in e/j continues. That means blow of steam for now, and after that a gold old ticking to the highs again. Max gain for shorters now some 30-40 assuming you picked and the top of the SAND berg...

USA Zeus 13:15 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 11:53 GMT April 10, 2007
ab- Would see this nice move as a confirmation to the upside for buy on dips and to thin on rallies

Bodrum OEE 11:53 GMT April 10, 2007
Intention was to lighten on longs on surges from earlier buy on dips.

Aus Stu 12:15 GMT April 10, 2007
Thx for the kind words friend. I view this forum as a melting pot opportunity for sharing and learning. At times specific trades right or wrong can be viewed with various techniques for analysis confirmation/non-confirmation. Other times various market conditions and themes are shared to identify various opportunities as each of us must ultimately accept full responsibility for trades.

IMVHO anyone depending on this forum fo specific trade recommendations will be very disappointed in the long run (Ask Purk's banker).

Beware- There are parasites and (sand) fleas here so always DYOD (Do Your Own Diligence)

GL GT to all
Cheers
-Z-

CT Cris 12:55 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 11:48 GMT April 10, 2007
=======
hope you are the same person who psot under Zues , as it is
too much to have more than one stupid here.

GVI john 12:50 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 12:48 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3357	119.28	1.2261	1.9615	1.1525	0.8167	159.34
High	1.3388	119.39	1.2284	1.9650	1.1596	0.8175	159.60
Low	1.3340	119.15	1.2218	1.9594	1.1503	0.8152	159.26
04/09/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/09/2007					
5 day 	1.3370	118.97	1.2211	1.9694	1.1542	0.8166	159.07
10 day	1.3356	118.32	1.2182	1.9683	1.1556	0.8129	158.04
20 day 	1.3324	117.86	1.2161	1.9596	1.1617	0.8056	157.05
50 day 	1.3188	118.87	1.2275	1.9553	1.1683	0.7911	156.75
100 day	1.3142	118.72	1.2260	1.9567	1.1646	0.7876	156.01
200 day	1.2935	117.87	1.2348	1.9186	1.1450	0.7732	152.49

Aus Stu 12:15 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Excellent call re g/j earlier today, now developing lower back pain from wallet size causing pelvic imbalance after longing off the bull t/l bounce. Regard your calls as similar to the weather forcast, giving a report on predicted conditions but makes people work a bit and take responsibility for their trades. Blogging specific trades makes for a herd of sheep bleating for the next handful of feed.
GL & GT to you

CT Cris 12:15 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
=======
exited buy postion as trend will change.

ABHA FXS 12:08 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
ABHA FXS 14:15 GMT April 9, 2007
LONG GBPJPY 234.00 FOR 200 PIPS STOP 233.00
---------
New Target 237.20+

Bodrum OEE 11:53 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 11:43 GMT April 10, 2007

Not at all. Thank you very much.

I am taking your words as short GBP (with my apologies could you kindly correct me in case you mean it is a buy at any point in reason presently or otherwise?). Regards

hk ab 11:53 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
zeus//view on gold?
I see a blast to 682 then next decision.

Toronto MRC 11:52 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Reuters
D.R. Horton orders down, spring starts weak
Tuesday April 10, 7:44 am ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE:DHI - News), the largest U.S. home builder, said on Tuesday orders for new homes tumbled 37 percent last quarter and that the spring selling season has begun more slowly than usual, suggesting a deepening of the U.S. housing downturn.
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Chairman Donald Horton said conditions remain tough in most markets because of high inventories of unsold new and existing homes. He also said "the spring selling season has not gotten off to its usual strong start."

Net sales orders in the second fiscal quarter ended March 31 fell to 9,983 homes from 15,771 a year earlier, and the dollar value of the orders sank 41 percent to $2.6 billion from $4.4 billion, Fort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton said.

For the six months ended March 31, new sales orders fell 31 percent to 18,754 homes, and the value of the homes fell 35 percent to $4.9 billion.

Prospective buyers canceled at a 32 percent rate from January to March, down from 33 percent in the prior quarter, but above the usual 16 percent to 20 percent rate.

It has become more difficult for many buyers to obtain mortgages as lenders tighten their underwriting standards. The steeper decline in the dollar value of D.R. Horton's home orders, relative to the number of orders, suggests that some buyers are "downsizing" to buy homes they can actually afford.

Horton has contracted some operations to prepare for a slowing housing market, including a reduction in the number of lots it controls. The company operates in 27 U.S. states, and builds homes with sales prices ranging from $90,000 to more than $900,000.

Shares of D.R. Horton closed Monday at $22.04 on the New York Stock Exchange. They have fallen 17 percent this year, the same decline as in the Dow Jones U.S. Home Construction Index (DJI:^DJUSHB - News).


London 11:52 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
BERLIN (Dow Jones)--Foreign exchange rate issues will play a role at the Group of Seven talks this coming weekend in Washington, an official of the German Ministry of Finance said Tuesday.

AZUSA 4x-ed 11:48 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Re: Zeus 11:43 || Some will be 1st in their class:

USA Zeus 16:49 GMT April 9, 2007
Bought GBP/USD 1.9591

And some (sand flea) will be late as usual:
=======
19800 is coming

USA Zeus 11:43 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 06:04 GMT April 10, 2007
Sorry I missed your post earlier. GL GT

AZUSA 4x-ed 04:11 GMT April 10, 2007
Thanks professor. BTW- saw that complaint about the interbank forex imposter- yikes!

Well Zeus is not angry when going with the flow. But, I see there is now new information re: GBP/USD.....No more buy on dips- Best to slice out of longs on surges.

Happy Day!

Bodrum OEE 11:39 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:46 GMT April 10, 2007

Thank you again. I am grateful.

USA Zeus 11:37 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Well yes it has come to my attention that after the sandman was proud of his short, buying GBP/USD from 1.9591 then reloading on dips has worked well. Also, Cathy is happy that the intensity picked up on the GBP/JPY pendulum swings for "impossible" trades from 234.10.

Atlanta South 11:33 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
Ref 11:25/Tks as I am now short, but needing to be away
after today, so may let it run with stop/limit in place if lower
not seen today. Again, tks & gt.

CT Cris 11:31 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 11:25 GMT April 10, 2007
cris, what if gbp stalls at 1.9799?....:D

=====
then Zues will be very angry..and shout..what a bad call.

hk ab 11:25 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
cris, what if gbp stalls at 1.9799?....:D

Lahore FM 11:25 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:16 GMT April 10, 2007
keeping to the short view.looking for 117.xx and lower.

CT Cris 11:23 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
=======
19800 is coming.

hk ab 11:20 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
when is the exact date of G7? This Sat?
now we are at e/j 160 again..... brave hearts, any, short ?!

St. Annaland Bob 11:20 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
before I go ahead ... here are the levels to watch with EURJPY as long term trade:

BULL: 16070-16260-16660-17100
BEAR: 15330-14690-14060-13850

happy and safe trades

Atlanta South 11:16 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
What are your views for USD/JPY for today. Tks & gt

Lahore FM 11:16 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
sold usdjpy 119.25.40 stops.

Canberra JD 11:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
AUD FUTURES... 91% bullish 9% bearish...

St. Annaland Bob 10:46 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE

if 15810 prints before 16100 then it will be sign the avalanche already started ... imo & fwiw

Bodrum OEE 10:42 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob

Kind of you. Thanks very much.

St. Annaland Bob 10:40 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 10:35 GMT April 10, 2007

call based on monthly charts, anything above 16050 is good for the medium/long term.

Bodrum OEE 10:35 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
--any level---it should read. Thanks

Sydney ACC 10:35 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT April 10, 2007
The Cemex offer for Rinker and Xstrata for Gloucester Coal thjrew the market, the Rinker one is AUD 17 billion, although there will be Australian assets that will be sold later to reduce the overall amount. Xstrata is AUD 391 million.
Its the Kiwi that baffles me though, the M&A flows are in AUD yet Kiwi is stronger against USD. It beggars belief.

Bodrum OEE 10:33 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 10:21 GMT April 10, 2007

Good day to you. Could you kindly indicate the level? Thank you.

Sydney ACC 10:25 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:09 GMT April 10, 2007
The company I work for has a residential property portfolio consisting of prime assets in Sydney. Over the last three years it has performed poorly as prices for its assets have fallen. I've suggested investing in property trusts. I am amazed at the returns over the last three yaers.
20% flat return over 6 months, 33.3 % for one year and 24.5% per annum for 3 years.
These returns are after fees. Incredible!

Mumbai NS 10:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Gep well said frd it sums up all! Finally the expected happens stopped out on aussy shorts now stand aside for a while .

FM gud call gud trades gl gt

St. Annaland Bob 10:21 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
happy day! ... EURJPY will print it's very top for some years during the next 1-60 days ... first target stands at 147 area ... trade safe to be happy!

Syd 10:21 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 10:04 I vaguely recall talk of intervention at the RBNZ ?

Syd 10:09 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 10:04 this is why I dont touch it , either way its manipulated

HK [email protected] 10:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   

PAR 09:23 GMT April 10, 2007
Trade sanctions against China seem to be the new tool to weaken the dollar after positive US data .
-----------------------------------------------------------
On the other side:
Fukui maintains a positive outlook. He says the US economy will achieve soft landing and also says that March Tankan was strong.

Why an economy with positive data(USA) needs soft landing?

Maybe it is not so positive after all.

Strong USD is in the common interest of the Japs and the US, where the americans will get out of their skin to say the Japs do not manipulate their currency. That what is all behind it. When and if all that will blow at their face, has to be seen.

Sydney ACC 10:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:38 GMT April 10, 2007
Kiwi is off again - despite the billions lined up for the AUD through M&A's the Kiwi is now stronger on the day. There are so many handicaps lined up against it, fixed term mortgage negotiations, foreign issued bond maturities, poor current account, yet it just keeps on going. A most danegrous currency to short.

Auckland trotter 09:56 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
For now I am looking at down pressure for the EUR/USD to around the daily pivot of 1.3353 which corresponds to a 23.6% fib on the 1 hour 30 day chart, and a level on the 4 hour 20 day chart, as well as the 1 day 6 month chart.

Stop placed at I7 on weekly pivots at 1.3426.

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:54 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:47 GMT April 10, 2007 || Cute, but not exactly where I was going with this. Maybe Flip can weigh in on this? Tx

Bahrain Bahrain1 09:54 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
German finance ministry official says G7 to discuss FX rate policy in Washington, no big surprises expected. (Reuters)

Lahore FM 09:49 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT April 10, 2007
agree,the chase as kiwi and aussie rose has pushed them only higher.going long would have been more fruitful.

Sofia mik 09:48 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 09:46 GMT April

may be eurjpy below 150

madrid mm 09:47 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 09:34 GMT April 10, 2007

THis might help and might be a start

sanctions

Ldn 09:46 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
German MOF Official: Forex To Play Role At G7 Talks

Dallas GEP 09:43 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
FM Yep I agree. I closed all my eur/gbp shorts here . It is not moving fast enough anyway and range is too tight. I will say tho that gbp/jpy should go short around 235.00 or just before IMO.

Not many things are absolutely consistent in FX except for one thing...The majority view is CONSISTENTLY wrong. To a man almost everyone thought AUSSIE and KIWI longs were thru and we get this push above 8215 and kiwi 7250. maybe it would be best if we could determine the majority view and then take possies against it!!! lOL

Syd 09:38 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
FX NOW! EUR/USD, EUR/GBP Flows - EUR could be weigh on how far ECB, Trichet can still hike

Bahrain Bahrain1 09:38 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 07:54 GMT April 10, 2007

Hi there.....
Wish you the same my friend. GL.

PAR 09:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Kampo buying USDJPY below 119.00 keeps USDJPY well supported . Euro good support at 1.3400 and 1.3380 with stops above 1.3450 .

Lahore FM 09:35 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 09:16 GMT April 10, 2007
GEP noted that.time for gbpjpy short now so eurgbp might get that bid off present lows.

Namur TG 09:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:23 GMT April 10, 2007

will such sanctions include products made in China by Japanese companies?

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Forgive my ignorance, but what logic should I follow in order to conclude: US Trade Sanctions = Weak USD? TIA

GENEVA DS 09:28 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
PAR..

May be trade sanctions against China... could as well weaken the JPY soon... charts tell it already...

Dallas GEP 09:27 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Well I am not going to bet on it but I would predit as stated earler that daily high for AUSSIE should be around 1.8250 area

PAR 09:23 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Trade sanctions against China seem to be the new tool to weaken the dollar after positive US data .

Auckland trotter 09:16 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:47 GMT April 10, 2007
“Tales From The Trenches: Trading Divergences In FX “

I see the lesson learnt should be that more than one indicator is needed for a certainty of a trade. It is the case of how stable is your trade?

How many legs are needed to make a stool stable before you can sit on it? For me three minimum, most chairs have four legs for stability.

But then again, there are such perches as shooting sticks with a single leg. Useful - but not that comfortable.

Dallas GEP 09:16 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
FM, this is where it gets interesting on eur/gbp. If it stays in current narrow range we will see a bounce long from here at 6802 bid.

Syd 09:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
BOJ's Fukui Offers No New Clues On Rate Hikes
The Bank of Japan's governor on Tuesday provided no hints on when the central bank may raise interest rates, only signaling that he has no pre-planned schedule to tighten credit. "Even though we are in the process of normalizing interest rates, I believe it's difficult to describe the future path of interest rates and then adjust them based on a pre-planned scenario," Gov. Toshihiko Fukui told a news conference. Fukui repeated that the central bank continues to closely watch developments of the economy and prices in order to conduct monetary policy in a timely manner.

Syd 08:56 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Norway's March inflation figures were "much stronger than expected," and are "overall somewhat worrying" for Norges Bank says Dominic Bryant of BNP Paribas. Says clothing and footwear prices are the primary driver, which at +5.4% month-on-month represents the largest March increase since 99. Other surprises included furniture and household goods prices and communications. The figures "certainly support our call for another hike at the (Bank's) April 25 meeting," he adds

madrid mm 08:47 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
trotter no pain , no gain lol 8-)

Tales From The Trenches: Trading Divergences In FX - Click here

Auckland trotter 08:45 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:35 GMT April 10, 2007
Good suggestion - have done so.

Haven’t downloaded any of the programs myself yet given time restraints to play with them. Given a cursory view on the website, they may offer something. But the proof of the pudding etc…..

madrid mm 08:35 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 08:30 GMT April 10, 2007

i suggest you post it on the help forum as well fwiw

Gen dk 08:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland trotter 08:30 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Has anyone tried the programs offered on http://trading-bots.safe-install.com/

Sydney ACC 08:29 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Australian foreign currency reserves increased by AUD 3.8 billion in March. Whether this amounts to intervention or otherwise we will not know until next month. In the past the Bank has bought foreign currency in one month only for the balances to decline the next. This suggests the purchase may have been for a major piece of defence equipment.

Auckland trotter 08:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
I have the EUR/USD down from the weekly R1 pivot at 1.3413.

Syd 08:16 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
TALK: G7 May Yet Put Focus On JPY

Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi may well have dismissed any suggestion that the JPY will be a major source of discussion at Friday's G7 meeting in Washington. But, with the JPY still weakening sharply against the EUR despite a warning at the last G7 meeting about "one-way bets", there could be more pressure from European politicians to halt the Japanese currency's slide. Bank of New York says it is debatable whether this would come through the official communique. "But," the bank adds, "assuming this view prevails, then it is by no means certain that the Washington G7 would be treated with the same air of nonchalance in the financial markets to which many of its predecessors have been subjected

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:05 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Norwegian CPIATE (underlying) inflation 1.5%, well above expected 1.2%.

Norwegian March CPI inflation was 1.1% y/y against expectations of 0.9% and 0.8% previously.

Bodrum OEE 07:54 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain 07:31 GMT April 10, 2007


Good morning Bahrain 1.

Whichever way Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui wishes to sound, even giving the impression of going against JPY (at this juncture) may be playing with fire. Mr.Fukui possibly is attempting to accomodate Japanese governments' national and international aims while preserving integrity. Nevertheless world has no history shortage of punished corners.

I wish all best.

Como Perrie 07:49 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 07:31 GMT April 10, 2007

Sure I do. They talk and imagine not only talk but think in japanese as well.

Have a good day the wolrd beginners

NYC beyond_destiny 07:34 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
bought loonie 1.15 t/p 1.163 s/l 1.1475

close on Fri close price if either side was hitted

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:31 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Fukui maintains a positive outlook. He says the US economy will achieve soft landing and also says that March Tankan was strong.

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:31 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:19 GMT April 10, 2007
Bahrain Bahrain1 07:09 GMT April 10, 2007
As I read It he says somehow they will rise as they have to.

U know how Japanese talk :-) GL.

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:28 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Fukui says hard to grasp daily yen carry trade activity

Gen dk 07:25 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 07:22 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Meanwhile AUD and NZD keep going, going, going, going....
8-)

I really need to start getting up early ...and trade Far east time 8-)

madrid mm 07:20 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:18 GMT April 10, 2007

8-)

Como Perrie 07:19 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 07:09 GMT April 10, 2007
As I read It he says somehow they will rise as they have to.

PAR 07:18 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Fukui paying more attention to US economy than to Japanese economy. Has a clearer view on the Us economy than he has on the Japanese economy where he finds it difficult to make predictions .

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:09 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Fukui says not likely for BoJ to adapt simple method of setting rate hike path. (Reuters)

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:08 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 06:36 GMT April 10, 2007

Many thanks destiny......

madrid mm 06:56 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
BoJ leaves monetary policy unchanged by unanimous decision. Focus on BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui news conference at 0630GMT.

WSJ: The Bush administration formally took its long-standing spat with China over pirated movies, music and books to the World Trade Organization. The move represents a further rise in trade tensions between the two nations. US Trade Rep Susan Schwab made the official announcement. "Piracy and counterfeiting levels in China remain unacceptably high."

MoF Koji Omi says he will tell G7 he is confident about Japan economic outlook.

Econs Min Hiroko Ota says personal consumption seems to have bottomed, but not strong enough due to weak wages. No change in economic trend despite weak leading economic indicators index.

Senior Japan MoF official says that some G7 members may mention JPY at G7, but JPY will not be the focus. Specific currency levels are not on G7 agenda at Washington. The situation is different from the G7 February meeting when issue of JPY weakness was highlighted along with BoJ policy. Impact of cooling US housing market limited- Reuters.

Australia business conditions index in March falls to 17 from 18. Business confidence index falls to 10 from 12. - NAB.

FT article: But ECB will also think hard about whether it wants interest rates to brake, rather than boost, growth. Officially, the ECB dislikes discussing where a "neutral" interest rate might lie. But its communication strategy shows such concepts play a role.

ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet has emphasised ECB's switch from referring to current interest rate levels as "accommodative" to being "on the accommodative side". By implication, at some point soon interest rate will cease being "accommodative", or supportive of growth, at all.

Choppy day today as markets returns to Life after Good Friday and Easter holidays. USD broadly lower, weighed by rising US-China trade tensions after US brought piracy case up to WTO.

USD selling seen led by broad based buying of Aussie from lows of 0.8160-70 after return from Easter Monday.

First waves of Aussie buying from German banks, US funds pushed Aussie up to 0.8204, before more waves of buying pushed the Aussie above the previous 10-year peak of 0.8215, Dec 1996 peaks, and triggered options triggers at 0.8225 to fresh 17 and half year highs of 0.8243, high since Oct 10 1990 high 0.8328, on options, stops and M+A news.

Australia Rinker accepting Mexico's cement maker Cemex offer of $15.3b, up from previous $12bln. More possible M+A demand for Aussie in the pipeline, with KKR led bid for Aust Coles, seen at AUD19.7bln in the pipeline. AUD/JPY hit fresh 10-yr highs of 98.05 on back of broad based AUD/Crosses buying. More AUD options 0.8250.

EUR/JPY continues to make fresh all time highs of 159.79, clearing the 159.68 Friday's peak, and helped a tad by BoJ no change decision, as mkt seen focused on taking out the 160 triggers.

Focus on BoJ Fukui now, and any complaints from Europe/ECB on high EUR/JPY, and ahead of G7/IMF meeting in Washington this Friday for any JPY, Carry trades comments.

EUR hit highs of 1.3431 on talks of China/ Asian Cbs buying, while USD/JPY hit 118.77 lows, as Japan custodian, agricultural names, exporters sold earlier after fixing. NZD, GBP,AUD, EUR, Cross/JPY all broadly higher.

Nikkei -90.20pts or 0.51% at 17,653. JGBs steady after BoJ leaves rates unchanged. Focus on BoJ Fukui. 10-year Yield 1.685%.
Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.77/119.36, EUR/USD 1.3351/1.3433, GBP/USD 1.9614/1.9711, USD/CHF 1.2194/1.2271, AUD/USD 0.8159/0.8243, NZD/USD 0.7194/0.7258.

NY NY 06:51 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
MM

what is the link for the asian summary. Company name is blocked, thus unable to open link

madrid mm 06:48 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
April 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar's slide may be coming at the right time for U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet.

American exports, made more competitive by a weaker currency, are helping prop up economic growth, offsetting slumps in housing and corporate spending. The euro's 2.5 percent gain since the end of January, meanwhile, should help Trichet combat inflation, complementing the ECB's interest-rate increases.


the trick is to find the right balance right !?!? lol

madrid mm 06:37 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

Asia Highlights Click here

NYC beyond_destiny 06:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 06:04 GMT April 10, 2007

IMHO, the [email protected] is pure techical move to re-test last Fri high...

I will observe the movement of eur/yen and swissie before short Euro. euryen resis 160.2-3 swssie support 1.213

The Netherlands Purk 06:31 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
e/j has its pattern again. So beware of new highs etc. Shorters wont get much if this is the case.

Bodrum OEE 06:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:18 GMT April 10, 2007
USA Zeus 02:32 GMT April 10, 2007
USA Zeus 03:01 GMT April 10, 2007

Good morning. Could you kindly let me know whether the (major) move (of storm kind) you anticipate is downwards or up on GBPJPY? Thank you

Bahrain Bahrain1 06:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds good day to you all......
U sleep with euro at 1.3360...U wake up with euro at 1.3420. Any one has clear view where this euro is going? thanks. GL

Bahrain Bahrain1 05:59 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Swiss March unemployment lower than expected at 3.00%

madrid mm 05:59 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
US needs more pragmatic approach to resolve trade disputes with ChinaClick here

Como Perrie 05:44 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
As expected BOJ to start hiking May or June and likely for coupla times in series. For now let's see the G7 the upcoming w/e. Markets are poor of short term opportunities seemingly at current.

Syd 05:38 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Hiromichi Shirakawa, Chief Economist for Japan at Credit Suisse tells CNBC's Amanda Drury that he expects the BoJ's next move to come in May, says major city property prices more than doubled , market not yet priced in any near term rate hike appreciation of the yen can be a surprise sees two rate hike before the end of year and 105 dlr/yen by end of year

Melbourne Qindex 05:28 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : My weekly cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 0.8131 // 0.8153* and the upper barrier is expected at 0.8334* // 0.8357. In the mean time the market is going to consolidate between 0.8214* - [0.8244] - 0.8274* after it has overcome the projected resistance at 0.8193.

madrid mm 05:25 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
GMT
13:30 USD Fed's Mishkin Speaks
17:20 USD Fed's Fisher Speaks
23:30 USD Fed's Plosser Speaks

Sofia mik 05:19 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:46 GMT April 10, 2007
Sydney ACC 04:39 will see Italy and the like screaming murder

right ,in EU have above 20 mln unemployed

Syd 05:12 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 05:06 FWIW currencies are controlled by funds despite the data ,specs are sucked into the run and left high and dry when they decide to turn .

Calcutta Vikram 05:09 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
But good......the Chinese are a good foil for the Americans. What contrasts, at two extremes of a flat atlas map, separated by the great Pacific. Brilliant stuff, amazing drama on the global stage.

Sydney ACC 05:06 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:46 GMT April 10, 2007
I still don't see why when US files a complaint with WTO that the USD should weaken against euro. My view FWIW is that at 1.34 and 1.97 USD is undervalued.
Several articles in the UK weekend press suggestive of sterling weakness, yet today's move wiped out all the gain USD received from Friday's NFP data against both currencies.

madrid mm 05:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
L´ímagination gouverne le monde.
Imagination governs the world.
Napoleon Bonaparte
8-)

Calcutta Vikram 05:00 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Kudos, Shanghai bc......here's to your long life!

shanghai bc 04:53 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Calcutta Vikram 04:36 GMT April 10, 2007

Creative thinking leads to creative inflation numbers..Rents and wages have gone up 40% and stocks 180% last year while inflation number is stil at 2.5%..Chinese tend to be good at math by anyone's standard..Creative math in this case..

Syd 04:46 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:39 will see Italy and the like screaming murder

Sofia mik 04:41 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
BOJ 0.50 unch

Sydney ACC 04:39 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:24 GMT April 10, 2007
Sorry don't understand about the reference to Trichet. There is a Bloomberg article that says he is indifferent to euro strength against USD.
Sarkozy and Royal should have something to say however.

Sydney ACC 04:37 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:23 GMT April 10, 2007
The Rinker deal adds another dimension to AUD demand.
The deal is worth AUD 17.4 billion, although Cemex will probably sell the domestic assets they are worth about AUD 3 billion, still leaves AUD 14 billion. the purchase price is in USD so each shareholder will receive USD or possibly AUD converted at a rate to be determined. With AUD behaving as it is most will want to take the former and gedge their risk.
In another M&A Xstrata have agreed to buy Gloucester Coal for AUD 391 million.
Then theres Coles Group, Qantas although with that one I think its a negative.
I don't believe you can afford to be short there's just too much in the pipeline that can push it higher.
Furthgermore there is still money flowing from the carry-trade. I'd say we are looking at taking out the 1988-89 high at 0.8915 at some stage this year now it is just so very strong.

Calcutta Vikram 04:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Frankly, I find Chinese economic data extremely hard to swallow. Years of 10% growth is accompanied by very low inflation.

A whole new branch of Economics, called "Chinese Economics", might be required.

Canberra JD 04:31 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Just going through the charts, I wuld have to say its the first time I have ever seen a head and shoulders fake out... Looking at eur/usd 1 hour.. Maybe I am delirious..

Syd 04:30 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
China's trade surplus in March narrows sharply to $6.87 billion, much smaller than $20.3 billion forecast in Dow Jones survey and $11.2 billion surplus in year-earlier period; data, driven by unusually slow 6.9% export rise (market had forecast 26.3% growth), come after commerce vice minister said yesterday trade surplus would show "marked change" after tripling on-year in January-February. Unclear at first blush why figures are so much out of line with market expectations, with exports rise slowest on-year monthly gain since March 2002. Data may provide Beijing though with brief respite from pressure to pick up pace on CNY rise, and come before Friday's G7, where CNY likely a topic

Calcutta Vikram 04:26 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Given such a wide disparity between expectations and actuals in the Chinese Trade figures, I wonder if this is just preparation for the upcoming G7 meeting by the Chinese.

Syd 04:26 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:15 yes quite slow data coming through .
China Mar Coal Exports At 3.71 Mln Tons, Down 36% On Yr

Syd 04:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC just wonder what view the ECB will have

Syd 04:23 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 04:16 Credit Suisse Singapore looking for two rate hikes by BOJ May and June CNBC say sees dlr/yen 108 Xmas , Aud extremely overbought already prior to today not much left to squeeze out of it only the brave or stupid

Sydney ACC 04:16 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Syd 04:12 GMT April 10, 2007
Well, Syd where to from here?

hk ab 04:15 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
syd//finally a weaker data which justify the actions taken by the POC

Syd 04:12 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
China March Exports +6.9% On Yr; Market Expected +26.3%
China March Trade Surplus US$6.869B; Mkt Expected US$20.3B

AZUSA 4x-ed 04:11 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Zeus, hope your precision Donchian Scalpel is ready for slicing these Yen crosses! Good call on GBPJPY...

hk ab 04:07 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
best indicator for gbp.......c...r...i...s......

USA rr 03:49 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   


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Lahore FM 03:26 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:24 GMT April 10, 2007
yes,quite agree there.best of trades!

Dallas GEP 03:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
FM you could be correct my friend. If it breaks 6830, I am going long myself. On the other hand if 6820/25 holds then IMO short side could come back in play

USA Zeus 03:20 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Have GBP/USD in a buy on dip mode after slicing out a tad on the early side.

Lahore FM 03:17 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 03:04 GMT April 10, 2007
GEP my friend eurgbp is in a comletely different mode from its usual self.it is also in daily uptrend since last week's rise from 0.6750 area.i am looking for 0.6900 over a few sessions.

Canberra JD 03:09 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
and the walls came tumbling down?

USA Zeus 03:06 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 02:59 GMT April 10, 2007

Yes....It is!! :-)
-Z-

Dallas GEP 03:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
target BTW is 6775 on eur/gbp shorts

Dallas GEP 03:02 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
took some more eur/gbp short at 6816. Been here 3 times before and has shorted so will see if it holds again

USA Zeus 03:01 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY pendulum runs into the printed balance point 234.10 from where volatility is building.

wellington am 02:59 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
I had been picking 7250 as a top for the kiwi, but am changing that view now. The strength in the ozzy and gold, (and milk prices), and the fact that we saw ~7440 at the last high (when the ozzy was still < 80) suggests we could be looking to test those levels again. My only concern is that the yen crosses are looking very stretched ...

Lahore FM 02:59 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:57 GMT April 10, 2007
pleasure is all mine!

USA Zeus 02:57 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM- Great call on the EUR inflection point!

Sydney ACC 02:57 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Lth th 02:36 GMT April 10, 2007
AUD graph against GBP, USD and TWI back to 1956.

http://www.rba.gov.au/MarketOperations/International/_Images/ex_rate_rba_role_fxm_graph3.gif

Lahore FM 02:46 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 02:39 GMT April 10, 2007
there might be twice as much move left for europe and us.who knows.

Canberra JD 02:39 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Quite the ugly morning today.. Daily moves before london session..Fortunate that I had no trades.. Probably wont get any either.

Lth th 02:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
ACC & GEP (Hi GEP. I still remember that beautiful dow call of yours a few years back!)
The Aud/USD needs to be considered in light of changed twi and global trade balances. I repeat my posit that the Au economy needs to be likened to the situation of 50 years ago (when the Emporor Ming was at his prime and those censored europeans hadnt started to rock the boat. Anyone have these historical charts?

USA Zeus 02:32 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY setting up for some major action

USA Zeus 02:24 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 02:17 GMT April 10, 2007

Very interesting wave pattern there JD on the daily chart. Tight linear channel with decreasing intensity along the push higher. The tide can push the waves only so far and the wave can only push the ripple up the shore so far before the apex. Thus- me thinks it best to slice out on surges.

Sydney ACC 02:22 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:57 GMT April 10, 2007
Well Aussie movement is strange to say the least. That 8215 resistance gave in but I am not convinced this level can be sustained. will wait for the hourly close to see where we are.

Aussie is higher because Cemex has made a higher offer for Rinker which has been recommended by the board. Rinker's market capitalisation is AUD 17.4 billion.
Cemex offer is in USD so the currency risk is with the shareholder. This takeover will see billions flow into AUD/USD as most shraeholders are resident in Australia. Rinker was spun off out of CSR a few years ago.

USA Zeus 02:18 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
After the calm before the storm the GBP/JPY does the "impossible" as the waves increase with intensity.

Canberra JD 02:17 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, I have a buy stop with a t/p of 8300. But it will only trigger if the extreme happens lol..

Delaware HC 02:15 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
re: cause of dollar weakness?

10:18 - Omi: Will Tell G7 Japan Confident In Its Economy
10:16 - Ota: Economic Recovery Trend Intact

USA Zeus 02:12 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
re: AUD/USD- Will we add .83 to the list?....

Dallas GEP 02:07 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
8215 or higher next hourly close and we might see 1.8250

Dallas GEP 02:06 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
key short term may be next hourly close on AUSSIE....8210 or lower and we probably will get shorts back in play.

USA Zeus 02:05 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Looks like AUD has the top pickers scratching their heads again.

Auckland peat 02:04 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
A number of the kiwi candles lower wicks/shadows earlier were long ie price went down only to quickly recover - indicating support. I almost posted this at the time.... ;+) but note this last hour candle is same.
Against my own predilections of 7200-50 being major resistance area and NZD starting to look weaker over Easter - breaking 7195 was quite bearish for me - these are bullish signs.

Dallas GEP 02:02 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
8215 hourly close bullish short term

Lahore FM 02:01 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
eurusd poised for 1.3440 and eurgbp 0.6830.

Canberra JD 01:58 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
I don't know
but the current price action suggests a quick short move down to 8200 again. After that one can only guess. However my bias for USD is long. Having noticed a USD selling race already early this morning. I would like to think this kind of move isnt sustainable

USA Zeus 01:57 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
1.9670 printed on the P&L as a GBP/USD gain. May reload on dips or SAR. Let's see...

Dallas GEP 01:57 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Well Aussie movement is strange to say the least. That 8215 resistance gave in but I am not convinced this level can be sustained. will wait for the hourly close to see where we are.

USA BAY 01:53 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
aud/usd higher bcoz of rinker takeover and next 0.83 soon

Canberra JD 01:51 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Not good to wake up to this kinda movement... I am yet to find any reason for all of this.

Syd 01:48 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
PBOC May Raise RRR To 12.0%-12.5% By Yr End - DB

PBOC's recent ratio hike marks an increased frequency of its monetary actions, says Deutsche Bank's Greater China chief economist Jun Ma. Tips PBOC to raise banks' reserve requirement ratio another 3 to 4 times, to 12.0%-12.5%, by year end; "we believe that PBOC has turned more hawkish than just a few months ago and will maintain a strong tightening bias as least for the coming 1 to 2 quarters." Deutsche had previously tipped RRR at 11-11.5% by year end

Dallas GEP 01:44 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Well I had an OLD order to sell AUSSE at 8210 that I forgot about but it also had a stop at 8230 so I went in and out of that one in a hurry!!! LOL

Canberra JD 01:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Any explanation of this early usd sell off?

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:06 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Anyone doing business with [email protected] Fx may want to give this NFA case a second look: http://www.nfa.futures.org/basicnet/Case.aspx?entityid=0326091&case=07BCC00010&contrib=NFA

USA Zeus 01:01 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Ok- 1.9650 printed as a gain on the P&L with just 1 allocation remaining.

HOU rj 00:58 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Hey Lahore
I am still Learning
Thanks and gl to u

Lahore FM 00:54 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 00:51 GMT April 10, 2007
Aud/usd long trade closed at 8194
-------
nice trade!

HOU rj 00:51 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Aud/usd long trade closed at 8194

USA Zeus 00:44 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Decided to print add'l GBP/USD gains @ 1.9630 from 1.9591

Lahore FM 00:36 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
point of infelction=point of inflection

Lahore FM 00:35 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
eur on point of infelction on several of its crosses.this can be quite meaningful for eurusd direction as well.likely higher from here.

HOU rj 00:29 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUs u r grt

USA Zeus 00:18 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
Well now that Cathy knows about GBP/JPY printed prices it looks like the "impossible" is on track and vibration intensity will increase as volatility reverts to the mean.

HOU rj 00:18 GMT April 10, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD GOT OUT AT BE
as also reversed the trade from short to long from0.8165

 




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