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Forex Forum Archive for 04/11/2007

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Syd 23:18 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD Needs Strong Jobs Report To Find Momentum
[Dow Jones] With the Australian dollar's momentum waning and evidence of very long AUD positioning going into today's March labor force data, the market needs to see a stronger-than-expected result for the currency to find fresh momentum, says Tony Morriss, senior currency strategist at ANZ Bank; says with market range of forecasts between +5,000 and +35,000 new jobs on-month there looks to be more scope for a disappointment trade. AUD/USD support sits at previous high of 0.8215 and again at 0.8170-0.8180. Pair last trades at 0.8257

Syd 22:52 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY my feeling is that if data is as expected , will give the excuse to take some money off the table prior to the G7 even though thats classed as a none event, there is no doubt the AUD is well over the top, a violent episode of p/t not hard to instigate , the thing is if the CPI is not up to scratch, that will eliminate the rate hike in May causing deeper correction , my view is the RBA are similar to the rest of the CBs, with the bias without the action .

USA Zeus 22:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:39 GMT April 11, 2007
LOL- well we never know for sure (even though some say different) as risk takers. Best we can do is play the odds over and over while protecting our stake. Cheers
-Z-

Dallas GEP 22:39 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Peat, good explanation. I have alwys said that there is a natural tendancy to be more patient with losing possies than winning ones. I actually am trying to adjust to that philiosophy. Today for example I took a small loss ON SOME USD/CAD longs by closing them at 1.1441 after I detremined that the markets inability to climb back above 1.1440 support probably short term was not a good thing. And that was a fairly new possie so I found it somewhat difficult to give up on that one and in the past may have actually added to the possie.

USA BAY 22:39 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

After the hawkish FOMC was expecting a dollar rally, hmmmmmm nothing seems happening. Hope dollar picks up some viagra

USA BAY 22:36 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

Technically everything shows aud/usd needs a correction, but what do you think will the next move be with the expectation of positive data from the employment sector. tia

USA Zeus 22:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 22:07 GMT April 11, 2007
jkt-aye 22:08 GMT April 11, 2007
Geneva 22:17 GMT April 11, 2007
Thx for kind words

Thx to all for various CAD (bull & bear) opinions. Let's see...
GT as always

Halifax CB 22:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 22:30 GMT April 11, 2007
Of course they'll cover - providing you're big enough and have some Nobel prizes to back it up (a la LTCM). But somehow I get the feeling that neither of us will qualify :)

dc CB 22:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 22:17 GMT April 11, 2007
For those of you getting AFX, check out the article on US Housing needs. (U.S. housing aid needed, Schumer says - 2007-04-11 22:58:31). 2 interesting points - the Dems are saying that "hundreds of million of new dollars" may be needed

What really burns me about that, is where was he when Greeny was giving away money for free, and the Wall Street IBs were making billions selling repackaged loans. Oh but now...we need to spend tax dollars to rescue ....

as my broker remarked...gee will he cover my bad trade??

Gen dk 22:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:29 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Australian Dlr Is Overbought; Due A Fall-Suncorp


2219 GMT [Dow Jones] Australian dollar will likely be pushed around by today's March employment report though many will be dissuaded from taking fresh positions because the currency looks technically overbought at current levels, says Suncorp Metway currency strategist Peter Pontikis; says the overhanging need to consolidate sideways-to-downward dominates AUD prospects for this week and next; technical pressure for the AUD/USD to return to 0.8225 level with or without the employment report. Pair last trades at 0.8249.

dc CB 22:21 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 21:53 GMT April 11, 2007
Re $/CAD, AFAICS, Shanghai BC summarized the market awhile back on one of these boards he said keep an eye on what China needs....raw materials....

Buy up what is needed.
That basically is my take. AUD, the other play is at 10 year highs. But that didn't stop Cemex from going after Rinker.
Canada is for sale...thanks to the "tax" move on Resosurce Trusts, which baiscally halved their price.
And Canada companies are being bought (CVRD and Inco, the Lundin deals)...the CAD still just coming off its lows.
Last year in May the CD was above 90 v the USD and there were discussions of parity(?)

USA BAY 22:21 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA

The question is when is the recovery. both nzd/usd and aud/usd both seems strong and now cad.

Geneva 22:17 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:00 GMT April 11, 2007

You will be ok! I think we should see a very important dollar
recovery against all as we are at extreme negative sentiment.

Halifax CB 22:17 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
For those of you getting AFX, check out the article on US Housing needs. (U.S. housing aid needed, Schumer says - 2007-04-11 22:58:31). 2 interesting points - the Dems are saying that "hundreds of million of new dollars" may be needed; and that NAR is forecasting the first slump (0.7 %) in housing prices since 1968....

jkt-aye 22:15 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
now playing again with smaller bird ... kiwi

USA BAY 22:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad next 1290 imho

jkt-aye 22:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
go get it Zeus !!!

Lahore FM 22:07 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:05 GMT April 11, 2007
am in with you but only on last 1.1385 allocation as you say.could not quite warmed up on the persistent lows but have gone in tentatively.

USA Zeus 22:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
reload loer = reload lower

USA Zeus 22:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
The whole world is ganged up on me. I hope that pop right after my last allocation in the hot zone serves as a global change of heart for some short covering to come :-)
1.14 is the b/e point now. Let's see- may take some off there and reload loer if- 1. I can 2. It does not accelerate once there.
GL GT

USA Zeus 22:00 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 21:45 GMT April 11, 2007
Shh- no secrets about the soon to be future employment ;-)

Well got my last allocation on USD/CAD...All in with a stop at 1.1328

USA Zeus 21:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 21:47 GMT April 11, 2007
Can't disagree. Now plz order your men to about face and charge towards the mid 14's TIA

Halifax CB 21:53 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Re $/CAD, AFAICS, Shanghai BC summarized the market awhile back on one of these boards he said keep an eye on what China needs. For me, that's raw materials which will push up commodity currencies, and a transfer of exports from the US to the EU (pushing up EURUSD). While it's certainly not a philosophy on which to daytrade, I think it sets the ground tone.

jkt-aye 21:53 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
there goes the goose...and so munchen.
back to corner :)

USA Zeus 21:52 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD entering a "hot" zone...

London AL 21:48 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
hmm,mostly to up,100 to 150 pip....interesting as always.

Mtl JP 21:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 21:20 / sub 200dma close => prefered flight tactic now is to sell pops towards say mid 1.14 for renewed and more divebombing 1.1380 for penetration attempt to 1.1330.

RIC fxq 21:46 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sorry - hit submit to soon

.. there is a danger of a quick snap back rally.

RIC fxq 21:46 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
CAD at the moment is a two pronged play: 1). a momentum trade in one of the few trending mkts and 2) a back door play on carry trade based on the earlier note CADJPY play.

With the "world" on one side of this mkt.

AZUSA 4x-ed 21:45 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, just heard that your neighbor (or [s][B]oon to be) only made 1 bil last year in natty. Now we know who be pickens my pockets ;-)

USA Zeus 21:44 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Probability of USD/CAD experiencing an upside reaction between current level and mid- 70's is increasing exponentially

Auckland peat 21:43 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
GEP.
Trading financial markets represents a psychological paradox to humans which is difficult to overcome. By nature we want to be more right than we are wrong in most aspects of life. This desire spells doom for traders in financial markets.
The need to be right drives psychological reflexes of greed and fear. Greed and fear are the reasons why traders engage in destructive behaviour. These include second-guessing a system, interfering, taking premature profits, letting a loss become too big, or cutting a position prematurely.
The strict and disciplined rules of system trading, as well as faithfully following the philosophy of letting profits run, automatically result in a drop in accuracy of the best systems in the world. This is fully expected, as accuracy is far less important than pay-off ratio, or size of profit. Pay-off ratio is simply the ratio between average loss versus average gain. By aiming to have a large pay-off ratio, the trader can have an accuracy ratio of as little as 25% and still make money in the markets

USA Zeus 21:38 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
If we get the lucky chance will use a push to the 60-70's as a chance to average at the 14 handle.

USA Zeus 21:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Looks like USD/CAD may be on a pattern where it is on the final push before a reaction.

Lahore FM 21:34 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
this once it is eerily silent from eurozone finance ministers pre g7.let us see when they throw the first one.

USA Zeus 21:33 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Oil stable at the moment on the quadratic fulcrum 61.8x.

Lahore FM 21:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 21:30 GMT April 11, 2007
lolzzz.and it has half yearly mood swings....

AZUSA 4x-ed 21:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 21:25 GMT April 11, 2007 || It's reassuring to know there's at least one currency on this continent the world seems to like... lol

Lahore FM 21:28 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
new york 21:26 GMT April 11, 2007
think i see the question everyday.kindly note it down someplace,it is 0000 gmt. for tokyo open.

USA Zeus 21:27 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Looks like this is where USD/CAD gets exciting!

Lahore FM 21:27 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
of usdcad has=of usdcad move has

new york 21:26 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
what time does tokyo open

Lahore FM 21:25 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
the magnitude of usdcad has usd implications too.may see usd getting pummelled soon.

USA Zeus 21:20 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
JP- If you lean hard enough on this crazy bird I'll have to cut out near that level.
GT

Lahore FM 21:20 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 21:11 GMT April 11, 2007
1.1360 itself used to be strong.shall be now as well.guess we don't see a fresh low below 1.1380.

Mtl JP 21:11 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
below dlrcad 1.1382 is a 50 pip gap to next semi-significant S upport. fwiw

NYC beyond_destiny 21:10 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
I was lucky to miss loading loonie at 'good' price level as watching Milan qualified last four of Champion Leagues...

It seems thetrain is non-stop express heading to 1.125-1.127 before any serious buyer comes in...61.8 fibo of 1.09-1.186/ 2006 yr-high of cadyen and 1.5 of eurcad

USA Zeus 21:07 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
St- True true- Just added some .89's...

houston st 20:53 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   

GEP -- you'll end up okay....mkt is in transition at the moment, and seems to be yen driven, unless I am mistaken....take a day or two sabbatical and get your mojo centered...you'll be just fine...never knew you to throw in the towel, so just go w/ the flows....gl/gt.


ZEUS -- they don't call it the loonie for nothing...gl/gt.

Dallas GEP 20:50 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well ST. got alot of Houston TEXAN in that WADE PHILLIPS from his DADDY. I do expect the DEFENSE to be alot better but who knows if fumble fingers ROMO can duplicate his earlier season heroics.

On the currency side of things I basically SUCK lately. I am wrong at least as often as I am right and that disturbing trend has got to stop. I will do more possies on eur/gbp and eur/chf because my hit rate on those 2 pair is relatively high.

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:49 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:35 GMT //
good point - I actually first read about pyramiding in shanghai BC's notes...

most times I have been averaging - thus I find martingale style less risky - and scaling in high-risk endeavour

however I believe both systems would work if one has a good sense of market and good analytical evidence to strengthen his confidence in the strategy

houston st 20:41 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   

GEP -- the Cowskulls finally got rid of QB Carr...wish us luck this coming year, although I expect these dumbasses to pick another lineman in the first round this year...too bad, as I would like to see my man Adrian Peterson in the lineup...looks like I'll still be rooting for Dallas as my fav TX team again this year....gl/gt.

dc CB 20:40 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Flaherty says keeping eye on M&A activity
Wed Apr 11, 3:47 PM

MISSISSAUGA, Ontario (Reuters) - Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday the recent rise in merger and acquisition activity involving Canadian firms is not specific to Canada but he is keeping an eye on it.
Enlarge Photo
(Reuters)

By Frank Pingue

MISSISSAUGA, Ontario (Reuters) - Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Wednesday the recent rise in merger and acquisition activity involving Canadian firms is not specific to Canada but he is keeping an eye on it.

"There are these large capital pools that are able to borrow substantially against assets and we're seeing that phenomenon around the world," said Flaherty after giving a speech in Mississauga.

"As a government we have a duty to Canada to monitor these activities, which we do."

The latest takeover speculation in Canada includes possible talks between the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan and U.S. private equity firm Providence Equity Partners Inc. over a deal to buy the country's biggest telecommunications group, BCE Inc.

As well, one media report said auto parts maker Magna International Inc. may be preparing a bid for DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler division, possibly in partnership with buyout firm Onex Corp. .

Foreign private equity funds have also been reported as being behind a series of acquisitions of Canadian income trusts since Ottawa announced plans to tax the sector.

Those reports have raised concerns that the Conservative government's trust levy will trigger a wave of takeovers which in turn will cost the government millions of dollars annually in lost tax revenues.

A senior finance official said on Wednesday there has been a dramatic increase in private equity activity globally, and Canada is no exception.

He said Flaherty had discussed the trend with officials during his recent trips to New York, London and Tokyo and that Ottawa was monitoring the phenomenon.

GVI Forex Trading Tools 20:36 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

USA Zeus 20:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 20:25 GMT April 11, 2007

Agree- martingale without proper position size and risk mgt will eventually get the acct wiped.
The USD/CAD trade objective today has been to allocate into a position from a different than typical setup for those hellfire laser-guided scalpal trades. And as always I never know any outcomes in advance so this could be a loser just the same.

GL GT!

GVI Forex Database 20:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3426	119.31	1.2202	1.9751	1.1410	0.8247	160.19
High	1.3441	119.55	1.2227	1.9817	1.1484	0.8266	160.43
Low	1.3407	118.88	1.2166	1.9712	1.1406	0.8227	159.58
04/11/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/11/2007					
5 day 	1.3400	119.15	1.2203	1.9688	1.1483	0.8204	159.67
10 day	1.3375	118.68	1.2191	1.9702	1.1528	0.8166	158.75
20 day 	1.3345	118.13	1.2164	1.9638	1.1586	0.8098	157.65
50 day 	1.3205	118.79	1.2263	1.9558	1.1670	0.7931	156.85
100 day	1.3150	118.78	1.2260	1.9577	1.1648	0.7885	156.19
200 day	1.2941	117.92	1.2347	1.9199	1.1454	0.7740	152.62

Mtl JP 20:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn 20:25 / re pyramiding: a tactic sometimes labeled as scaling in (or out). The effect is also known as increasing / decreasing one's account's leverage.

The net effect affects one's ability to (not) sleep: take a positive ex: IF one cashes in - lets say - 50% of a possie for 30 pips, from that point on market would have to move 60 pips in opposite direction to have ZERO effect on your account. Equal effect in the opposite direction, just add a minus sign.

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq //
cadjpy - sorry for making a silly impression - I actually wrote the calculation of the cross just to make sure I will remember it...
I know GBPJPY = GBPUSD x USDJPY
but since CADJPY = USDJPY / USDCAD - I had to think it over - because both legs of the cross are directly quoted

Dallas GEP 20:31 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Alex mesenger is not running, I will reload it and let U know later when it is done

USA Zeus 20:28 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Patience as we see if there is another opp or two to fully allocate in USD/CAD in a "steady as she goes" basis

Dallas GEP 20:26 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Alex I am gepdallas on yahoo msn.

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:25 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus //
btw - I have been testing views before about this martingale style of position building.
I didn't receive much positive reactions however I strongly believe it's up to the Account size, the steps / adding size that matter - especially if you have a near level that will provide strong revesal opprtunity...
I have zeroed my account many times but in hindsight I see that should I had more cushion and added in larger intervals less lots (bulding patiently) - I could have been right..
I bit like piramiding - never tried it but I guess one must be very confident to withstand the drawbacks in the way..

Mtl JP 20:22 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
4x-ed - sometimes Dr. become (patient) patient. I think the loon's maximun air speed is 96Km/hr and stall speed is 95Km/hr. Holding it long is - if it's any consolation - a positive carry.

Roma Alex 20:19 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Hi GEP, I added you to yahoomsn but not working ... could I speak to you somewhere?

Dallas GEP 20:16 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Placed order to SELL eur/chf at 1.6400 for a target of 1.6350.

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading CAD after the news is a bit of a pickle... I trust that Dr. Zeus knows what he's doing, however what I don't trust is all those shorts that will have to scramble for cover if this is taken down a notch. BT

jkt-aye 20:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
usdcad ... i'm ready to licking wound on break 1.1380.
come on muncheeeen...start your diesel.

USA Zeus 20:02 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well as Luke found out you must have an acct size big enough to "steady as she goes" taper into a blade runner position.

The Netherlands Purk 19:57 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
So err Zeus, according to mr. Lurkson you have mini mini account. Does that mean that you have mini mini possies now?

USA Zeus 19:56 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
New ave USD/CAD long price of 1.1408

USA Zeus 19:53 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Also added some at the offer rate of 1.1395 while chatting with Jaymond. Not going to add much more.

USA Zeus 19:49 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Ok Added more USD/CAD 1.1397 (offer price)

Mtl JP 19:45 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
JP 19:37...or maybe not. dlrcad 1.1380 on proximity radar.

wellington am 19:41 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD - major top in place? Failure at the last (lower) high, despite good oz strength, is encouraging.

Mtl JP 19:37 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn 19:32 / late day cad action probably influenced by eurcad cross: 1.5310 S upport tagged, now it can weaken some as buyers pulloff.

jkt-aye 19:37 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 19:32 ... cheers & GT

USA Zeus 19:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 19:32 GMT April 11, 2007
Thx Kaprikon appreciate that! :-)

Toronto CD 19:31 GMT April 11, 2007
I normally quote bid prices (both sides of the trade) as a std here since spreads/commissions vary widely. GT!

jkt-aye 19:34 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
for sure 100 % ...... i'm confused, LOL

USA Zeus 19:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 18:53 GMT April 11, 2007

This possie building on a blade is different than the other hellfire missile ATM machine hit and run strikes- Must go easy and start out slow then add at extremes to build the possie. GL GT!

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:23 GMT //
USDCAD has strong support on Daily - 1.1405 is 360 DMA (courtesy of Silverthorne AL)

Toronto CD 19:31 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, are you saying you got filled at 1`1405?

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 18:46 GMT //
niiice! I liiike!
good humor is the best companion to have while trading or observing the markets...

USA Zeus 19:28 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
New USD/CAD ave price - 1.1416 after rounding up

USA Zeus 19:23 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
For sure just bought some more USD/CAD 1.1405 on the exponential scale for a 100% unsure outcome (That is for sure!)

CT Cris 19:18 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
===
for sure it will rise above 19800.

PAR 19:00 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Long term I think the Euro will collaps but I am afraid of losing too much money in this short term euro hype.

jkt-aye 18:53 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Bay 18:13 ... yes for +2 only as i switch to Zeus way's hunting the goose.

CT Cris 18:51 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 15:26 GMT April 11, 2007
gbp.usd
====
may rise directly after data .
and may decline then reverse to up and continue rising.
===
I will buy b4 data , and buy another if decline.

=======
we are in the second senario , the deline ,reverse then the continue rising.

madrid mm 18:46 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
the name´s Kampo ! BOJ Kampo , I take my YEN stirred but not shaken

PAR 18:42 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
What Bernanke means is that the yen is a free floating currency manipulated by Kampo and Boj Even currency analysts at GS say the yen is steered .

madrid mm 18:41 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
maybe this usd-nok is near the bottom at 6.03ish
big round figure at 6.00 .........

USA Zeus 18:33 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
LOL- not sure what was "censored" on that last post.

USA Zeus 18:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well today's exciting bucking bronco oil ride from the quadratic fulcrum point of 61.80 has cleared the path for what looks like a direction break on Thurs.


Analista Fx 18:17 GMT April 11, 2007
Thx-to you as well.
Cheers
censored

madrid mm 18:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
these nordic crncies sure look ´fun¨ to trade

PAR 18:24 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
FOMC Looks like non event.

hk ab 18:24 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR, it is opposite to your prediction....

Gen dk 18:19 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
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NYC beyond_destiny 18:18 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
opposite...sold swissie 1.222

t/p 1.216 s/l 1.224

Analista Fx 18:17 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 18:12 GMT April 11, 2007
hope dollar rally begins with the fomc more hawkish than expected

Thats for sure!
USA Zeus good luck mate!

PAR 18:16 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Will only sell Euro at 1.3390 on stop .

USA BAY 18:15 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
CORRECTION, USD/CHF clears 1.2215 so 1.2285 next

USA BAY 18:13 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

Did you short kiwi at 7280??

USA BAY 18:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
hope dollar rally begins with the fomc more hawkish than expected

Van jv 18:11 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve officials agreed higher interest rates could still ``prove necessary'' to control inflation even as they removed a reference in their statement to tighter credit because of increased economic risks.

USA BAY 18:09 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF, Anyone thinks it is a sell at 1.2215. tia

Fairfield JPC 18:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Dollar strength across the board? any insight?

USA Zeus 18:06 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Ave price for USD/CAD long is 1.1422

USA BAY 18:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
HAWKISH WITH DOVISH BIAS , FOMC

USA Zeus 17:55 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Added more USD/CAD 1.1414

dc CB 17:55 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
One last one. So on a day when stoxs are on shakey ground, what else can he say about Free Money.


""Bernanke says the yen is determined by market forces, says Yen is a free-floating currency- Bloomberg

Bernanke says intrusive rules on hedge funds risk moral hazard.


AND if you make a bad deal...Chuckie will be there to bail you out.

U.S. Senator Schumer proposes "hundreds of millions" of dollars to bail out troubled mortgage holders - Reuters

PAR 17:52 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Fomc minutes may help stock market but could be USD negative .

dc CB 17:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
> Finance News > Lundin to merge with Tenke... CBC.ca
Lundin to merge with Tenke Mining Corp.
Wed Apr 11, 11:42 AM

Just a week after unveiling plans to buy Rio Narcea Gold Mines, Lundin Mining Corp. was at it again on Wednesday, announcing a friendly merger with Vancouver-based Tenke Mining Corp.


(fyi: Swedish Corp)

dc CB 17:43 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Canada to tell G7 hedge funds are beneficial
Wed Apr 11, 11:14 AM

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Finance ministers of the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations will discuss hedge funds and collateral-based financing this weekend and likely mention hedge funds in their communique, a senior Canadian official said on Wednesday.

Canada views the rise of hedge funds as a positive development that helps diversification and price discovery. More understanding is needed, though, on how the financial system now operates, the official told reporters in a background briefing.

USA Zeus 17:38 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:34 GMT April 11, 2007
Appreciate that JP- Will see where things end after allocation is full if it continues to fall then will either cut loose or ride the rebound.

Mtl JP 17:34 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:25/ I believe u have GVI lurk-ability, so at risk of repeating, fwiw:

GVI Jay 11:34 GMT April 11, 2007
$/CAD: We show 1.1452 as the 200 day mva and 1.1430 as key support.

Mtl JP 11:31 GMT April 11, 2007
dlrcad at 200dma. close under it, technicaly, would have directional change implication and a 180-pip south trgt.

Cali mmm 17:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Thank you FM. I am short myself and looking to TP soon. Will take a look at longing. Best regards.

USA Zeus 17:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well added more size for a USD/CAD possie @ 1.1416

Lahore FM 17:26 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
mmm,a tentaive long entry at 1.1400/10 may work quite fine.this is about where weeklies are kicking in and it would be very unlikely that we see much lower for some time.all this imho.

NYC beyond_destiny 17:25 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
both swissie short and loonie long stopped out 2 pip of entry. Contemplating to re-enter loonie soon. Any advice?

USA Zeus 17:25 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:22 GMT April 11, 2007

LOL- well not entirely as such. Building the possie up in small sizes at first and now am using bigger size for better weighted price and more serious committment- but not in a Martingale sort of way.
Cheers

USA Zeus 17:23 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 16:31 GMT April 11, 2007
LOL- Thx...perhaps am already on that list! :-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:28 GMT April 11, 2007
Yes- have eyes and ears on the NYMEX for locals and wirehouse activity. NYSE book is electronic.


Mtl JP 17:22 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 17:18 GMT , what does "adding exponentially" mean ? if you started with two, add 4 next add 16 possies etc ? What if it goes 1.1380 ?

USA BAY 17:22 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD, 1.1405 should see a rebound to 1.1460 or 1.1480 area and sell the rally imho

Mla evan 17:19 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Usd/cad 1.1405 50% of 1.0930/1.1880 imho should hold.

USA Zeus 17:18 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Now adding exponentially
Bought more USD/CAD 1.1423

Cali mmm 17:10 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM and/or monaco Oilman: If you are around, can you share your views on USDCAD? short term targets? TKS!

USA Zeus 17:09 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
More USD/CAD 1.1426

nj jf 17:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
speculators


think more accurate description is funds, options players, and diversification flows are very active in those type of markets

speculators my impression is few would have the credit facilities available to participate in any meaningful way.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 17:01 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
let me say see u later. will go sleep now.
thanks. good luck traders.

NYC beyond_destiny 16:58 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
speculators buy any dip of euryen, eurchf and aussie. and it could only caused stalement...Anticipating directional move by release of Fed min and statement of G7 meeting

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 16:57 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 16:50 GMT April 11, 2007
aud/jpy.bullish drama will end at 99.13. if u have buy posssie, you MUST exit nd cut reverse at 99.13. yes from arround that number will down so sharply.
nzd/jpy bullish drama will end at 87.62. please exit and cut reverse at that number. like aud/jpy from arround that level will down so far.
lets see..

USA BAY 16:50 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas,

What is your view on aud/jpy and nzd/jpy. thanks

Sofia mik 16:49 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Van , next 50-60 yrs we will drive on oil , efther on back under the ground.
glgt in show FED mints

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 16:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JPC 16:38 GMT April 11, 2007
drama eur/jpy was finished at 160.39 today.
lets see about 159.85
gbp/usd drama was finished at 236.25.lets see 235.54.
about high drama 160.39 and 236.25 can be answered very well before.

Van jv 16:44 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Exposing the Corn-Based Ethanol Hoax
….
Cato Institute says it takes the equivalent of seven barrels of oil to produce eight barrels of corn-derived ethanol……..
True, this high-octane fuel gives engines a kick, but it gets significantly lower miles per gallon, necessitating more frequent fill-ups. Ethanol's also more expensive than gasoline, and, as a blend, contributes to its high price………..

LINK
http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_461.cfm

madrid mm 16:41 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Finally something for the markets: FOMC minutes and details on the degree of inflation concern at the Fed. 20h00 gmt

Fairfield JPC 16:38 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
So what is the consensus with where the Yen crossed will go and when are ppl getting in? as well as the GBP and AUS$. I agree with the whole Natural Law bit. Indicators are a bit out of reach with the pairs at this point. But there are still pips being gathered.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 16:36 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
txtx 16:30 GMT April 11, 2007
its very clear about 1.9723 and 1.9682 and then 1.9661.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 16:34 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 16:19 GMT April 11, 2007
one of natural law is spiral rule, but pattern is the answer of "historical will repeat itself". I was concern with pattern and all of my view based on the pattern with no indicator.
all indicators is too late to read the pattern.
HISTORICAL WILL REPEAT ITSELF is my answer.

btw thanks for your question.

moscow mike 16:31 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Looks like Zeus- The Commander will join The Admiral (Eric Bolling), John Arnold and T. Booner on the Trader 100 list.

txtx 16:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
raden mas:

whats your target for gbp/usd?

RIC fxq 16:28 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 16:17 GMT

there are platforms, including the one I use, that offer CADJPY as a regular cross.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:28 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:21 //
you many times talk about pit traders - do you actually see them - I mean like you are in proximity to the pit?

I ask because I've always been excited when I read about the locals as their profession is very intense and so on - so if you really observe this it will be great if you can tell more!

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 16:22 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
gbp/usd is on the counting down now.
lets go !!!!!!

USA Zeus 16:21 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:46 GMT April 11, 2007
May oil on the fulcrum 61.80.

Hmm- right back to the 61.80 fulcrum now after hitting 62.56 LOL!

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:19 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 16:15 GMT April 11, 2007
:: natural law must work everytime.

Hi - I respect your calls - can you elaborate a bit on what do you refer as a natural law?

USA Zeus 16:18 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:16 GMT April 11, 2007
Yep- oil on the NYMEX and COP, VLO on the NYSE in tandem

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:17 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Analista Fx 16:06 //

CADJPY now at 104.27 is:
JPY 119.38 / CAD 1.1446

so if you want to short CADJPY - you have to short USDJPY and long USDCAD - so the cross will deflate..

this one along with all JPY crosses is nicely trending higher to the Feb High at 104.78 - not far away...

hk ab 16:16 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus, I thoguht you were busy with the oily poises....

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 16:15 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
just inform to someone.1.9771
really gbp/usd chart now will drop till 1.9723 or 1.9682-1.9661 as the low tgt.
who want to take that opportunity?
personally I dont admire if suddenly sharks know it although no news and economic data now. natural law must work everytime.

Mtl JP 16:13 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
16:45GMT Fed’s Lacker speaks about inflation and unemployment

USA Zeus 16:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
One of these great days! Hard to contain when crushing it hard- making NYMEX floor traders and NYSE specialists books suffer.

JHB SRG 16:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 16:07 GMT April 11, 2007

Many thanks , will give it a bash

hk ab 16:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
paint drying.

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 16:04 GMT //
tnx for the 2 cent opinion Perrie!
I just try to find trade-able patterns in the charts...

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:07 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
JHB SRG 16:01 GMT //
click the RESEARCH link on top - then you can reach GVI Graphs and FX Hist Link - for MAs, Pivots and more..

Analista Fx 16:06 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:53 GMT April 11, 2007
so you are just long cadjpy

I think you want to say short cadjpy ;)

Como Perrie 16:04 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
okidoki am off...maybe I'll watch the show later on maybe not...more not as am not a scalper bibi

JHB SRG 16:01 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 12:09 GMT April 11, 2007
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

Can anyone help with the "exact location" of this info as my surfing this site has proved fruitless.
Thanks

Como Perrie 16:01 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:57 GMT April 11, 2007

Was just looking at It. Talking into next days I do see the pair either ways 1.20 or 1.23. As for now It yet holds some Usd strenght into, but dunno sincerly - am more inclined to think that we have seen big flattening of positions more than new trends, but do not see flows so just a two cents tought.

Atlanta South 15:57 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Ref 15:37....tks & gt.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:57 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Daily chart USDCHF -
just to test this view - from March 16 till now the pair is trading in a tight rising channel - I believe we can call it a Bearish Flag - at least it resembles very much to me...

if this is correct - then since it is a continuation pattern - we should see it trading lower to the 1.2000 handle..

any comments?

Como Perrie 15:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
not really mind previous post as a nosense

Como Perrie 15:53 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
so you are just long cadjpy

London NYAM 15:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
I'm off. Enjoy the show.
Still long USDCAD (1.1450) and short USDJPY (119.10)

London NYAM 15:44 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
JP// All the dealers at my bank.

Mtl JP 15:39 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM 15:35, rofl, with what dealer ?

USA Zeus 15:37 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 15:24 GMT April 11, 2007
I show different time frames (octaves) in various phases- so overall have nothing specific in a multi-timeframe alignment to offer since the GBP/JPY idea. If something shows will try to remember to share any ideas.
GL GT

London NYAM 15:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
JP// Yes, my apologies red doesn't paste.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP //
I think it is like in accounting the negative balance is in brackets...

Mtl JP 15:34 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
NYAM 15:30 / didn' t you miss a minus sign with the DJ and Nazdog numbers ?

CT Cris 15:33 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Taro
Benbarke speech at 1700 gmt and FOMC at 1800 gmt

hk ab 15:33 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
thanks.

London NYAM 15:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
ab//
Dow 12,498.68 75.17 (0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,464.14 13.47 (0.54%)
S&P 500 1,441.51 6.88 (0.48%)
Taking a breather but going to continue (IMHO)

Montréal Taro 15:29 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 14:54 GMT
which news ? what time ?

TIA

San Juan Lil 15:27 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USD 15.45 GMT: Federal Reserve's Lacker speaks to Economists in North Carolina

CT Cris 15:26 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
====
may rise directly after data .
and may decline then reverse to up and continue rising.
===
I will buy b4 data , and buy another if decline.

hk ab 15:26 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
how's dowj at the moment/

London NYAM 15:25 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY looks to have spiked as well.

RIC fxq 15:24 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
"supposedly" based on IMF comments re: carry trade not excessive, harmful.

whatever!

Atlanta South 15:24 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Would you kindly dispense a view on the USD/JPY as to maybe
its next probable direction? Tks & gt.

CT Cris 15:22 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
KL anita
my call for the data period ( after data}

Fairfield JPC 15:18 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
What is this talk about the Yen crosses? Why short now? did some news come out? Insider info?

USA Zeus 15:14 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Wild West (cowboy style) out here in the crude pits as hoped.

TREVISO Fede 15:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
AudYen and EuYen will fall soon.

lugano fc 15:02 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
it is now or never.

short eurjpy with big leverage....no stop (until 164 the account is still in play) will hold until 150.50 is seen.
think here (160.50/161.80) is the year high of this pair

this rate is out of reality. i see blood on the street in sometime....censored

USA Zeus 15:02 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE

Friend if you have not gone for the rest of the week and would like some continued GBP/USD views my apologies as I thought you have gone to enjoy the week as you mentioned. Otherwise I would have continued to offer ideas. Cheers
-Z-

kl anita 14:59 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
any news? ct cris? why gbp up

TREVISO Fede 14:58 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
This is that I think too!

hk ab 14:55 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
the last massive yen crosses sale was triggered by the equity mkt.

CT Cris 14:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd BIG MOVE tonight 100-150 pips mostly to up.

TREVISO Fede 14:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab : what do you mean for $Y? Thanks

hk ab 14:52 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
dlr/jpy be careful.

London NYAM 14:49 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Equities fall increasing in momentum.

jkt-aye 14:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
kiwi ... plan short here 7280 for 7240 - 7180 - 7020 stop 7315.
any view ?

TREVISO Fede 14:29 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Short big position on [email protected] 119,40

NYC beyond_destiny 14:21 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
hold loonie long 1.1445 set s/l 1.143 t/p open

short swissie 1.2205 t/p 1.216 t/p 1.223

London NYAM 14:21 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
mm:
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8886507

They are alwways divisible by 9.

Como Perrie 14:16 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
good rest. Zzz...:)

that usdcad level you entered reminds me of some levels I was projecting months ago from the 1.18 usdcad levels...will see next week after g7 myself...but do not like to expand trading to wide at current... next month maybe tougher again..bi

madrid mm 14:15 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
thanks in advance

madrid mm 14:15 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
is there any reason why the Chinese, Taiwan, Singapore Current Interest Rates are not in 1/4 point ? ie
China 6.39%
Singapore 2.94%
Click here

USA Zeus 14:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie- Thx for your views.
GT as always!
-Z-

USA Zeus 14:07 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:05 GMT April 11, 2007
Like a good mystery novel. Let's see...
GT!

USA Zeus 14:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Added more USD/CAD @ 1.1434

hk ab 14:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
zeus, like the dlr/cad contra? but this baby is very mysterious at the moment.

USA Zeus 14:04 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:02 GMT April 11, 2007
Building a USD/CAD possie. First entry 1.1440

A long possie that is. GL GT
-Z-

USA Zeus 14:02 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Building a USD/CAD possie. First entry 1.1440

Dallas GEP 13:56 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Closed usd/cad longs for a 21 pip loss. The inability of usd/cad to rebound much off it's lows has been worrisome. i will try again LONG if 1,14 handle is seen.

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
https://www.commerzbank.de/upload/dailyd.pdf

this daily updated piece is very nice no matter the language - some time ago it was in English but since the images are very clear it is great even now..

Como Perrie 13:53 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Not oil really... that am looking only long time frames trough etfs

Como Perrie 13:52 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:46 GMT April 11, 2007

Yeap agree, am thiny positioned onto already.

Como Perrie 13:50 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
This yen is really worth a penny or whatsoever..Looks as the whole world is selling yens and usdjpy pushing higher to catch a whole number of yen long positions some many are yet establishing ahead of the G7

RIC fxq 13:46 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
4cast:

USD NOW! IMF Downgrades US growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.9%, housing market key
Wednesday, April 11, 2007 9:36:00 AM

The IMF has reduced its forecast for 2007 US GDP to 2.2% from 2.9%, most of the downgrade to growth was due to expected continued weakness in residential investment. Problems in the sub-prime market may prolong the trough in the housing cycle, despite other indicators suggesting otherwise. While the current slowdown in growth is exhibiting signs of a "mid cycle pause" risk is to the downside. Consumption has shown some resilience in light of the slowing housing prices due to the strong labour market, but the key is that if housing prices slowdown/contract much further impact wealth, negatively affecting consumption creating a more pronounced slowdown. IMF says that risks that inflation remain persistently high can not be ignored.

Como Perrie 13:46 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:43 GMT April 11, 2007

hahah... funny that price feed.. It jumps me all over the webpage onto my firefox browser...Yet to fix It maybe..also why all have just that small size prices windows.. I do like gigantic ones, maybe just majors and coupla crosses.

USA Zeus 13:46 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
May oil on the fulcrum 61.80. Should see fx related flows take off in 45 mins or so after the EIA report for some wild action after yesterday's respite. GL GT

madrid mm 13:43 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Global-View FX + Live Rates 10:56 GMT April 11, 2007
New Forum: FX + Live Rates-We have added an alternative to the fx + ticker forum. You can find it on the left sidebar under Forums, FX+Live Rates. Send us some feedback after trying it.

Nice but is there a way to close it easily ?

madrid mm 13:38 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
i am looking at a cricket scoreboard on the web , ie England vs. Bangladesh . I need a phd in science to work it out ? lol
Runs B 4s 6s SR This bowler Last 5 ovs

FX with my R, S n PP far easier 8-)

RIC fxq 13:34 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Also Lacker speaking at noon ET and Bernanke at 1300. Q&A to follow Ben.

Como Perrie 13:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Tonite beside the FOMC minutes a closer look to the budget eventual problems for which we hear lately some minor bad news are an additional indicator. That said the dollar might still rise or fall looking into next days, or just continue Its slow squeezing pattern, which is good for most scalpers and very short term 10 pips traders around.

The Netherlands Purk 13:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
16050 that is...

The Netherlands Purk 13:29 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Ah, finally the violation of the 160 in e/j. Almost ready to short but not yet, will wait for above 16150, and if not seen well, tomorrow another chance....

hk ab 13:28 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
mkt wants to test the nerve of cb... want to kick my stop at 162?

Como Perrie 13:27 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
btw looking at the very short term picture It tells nothing long term, maybe that s just the calm be4 G7. We had some coupla weeks with a tight side range around a 2 pct, with days of dollar panic and days of dollar revenge. Overall the very long term picture is however clearer.

Como Perrie 13:21 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:15 GMT April 11, 2007

That has been said by Bernanke one hour ago. Be serius mr. Kampo pls

Como Perrie 13:20 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:09 GMT April 11, 2007

mah Rich..do not know, doubt most are at his level - beside Ben's job is not that of an economist, consultant or whatever the average americans are thinking of him. So It's normal his chairman style language gets in contrast with many economists.

btw I know banks with different economists forecastings so at least one stays in top ranks. Call It a good job

PAR 13:15 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
FOMC minutes may warn for stagflation .

RIC fxq 13:09 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:58 GMT

actually PhD economists in the private sector here do far better than Ben or any of the Fed economists.

hk ab 13:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
bc, do you still see dlr/jpy 110-120 range holds? Many thanks.

Como Perrie 12:58 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 12:57 GMT April 11, 2007
he gets a decent salary for what he does

PAR 12:58 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Kampo putting market a sleep by buying all USDJPY below 119.10 and buying EURUSD below 1.3420. Think USD will go higher after Trichet leaves rate unchanged tomorrow.

Como Perrie 12:58 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   

Como Perrie 12:54 GMT April 11, 2007

Which is similar to what happened to japan in the late 80s Nikkei crash from 40K

RIC fxq 12:57 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:54 GMT

must be a busy guy today, also scheduled at 1300 ET at NYU on market discipline and regulation.

Como Perrie 12:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Bernanke just speaking about an stagflation economic period to come for US

hk ab 12:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
PAR//do you see Kampo around today again? :D

GVI john 12:10 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 12:09 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3425	119.11	1.2180	1.9717	1.1474	0.8257	159.91
High	1.3457	119.36	1.2271	1.9750	1.1530	0.8260	160.10
Low	1.3350	118.76	1.2144	1.9672	1.1460	0.8160	159.05
04/10/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/10/2007					
5 day 	1.3389	119.02	1.2203	1.9688	1.1518	0.8192	159.36
10 day	1.3364	118.44	1.2186	1.9688	1.1546	0.8146	158.29
20 day 	1.3335	118.00	1.2162	1.9618	1.1603	0.8078	157.37
50 day 	1.3197	118.81	1.2268	1.9556	1.1677	0.7922	156.80
100 day	1.3147	118.75	1.2259	1.9573	1.1647	0.7881	156.11
200 day	1.2938	117.89	1.2347	1.9193	1.1452	0.7736	152.55

London NYAM 12:09 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Hang in there GEP. We're going to make it :)
This could run to 1.1420 or try for the 1.1401 .618% retrace of the whole move since MAY 30 '06 [1.0927] to FEB 2nd 1.1875]. Also there is a .618 phi extension of the leg from FEB 2nd [1.1563] to MAR 4 [1.1825] targeting 1.1401. Not to mention that its the handle of course.
Hopefuly your risk assesment will hold for that. If so, the correction will be a nice one. imho.
Always fun catching falling knives.

Dallas GEP 12:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well Euro is near it's London lows. I will wait and see if we get some dollar buying late in London or early US

Mtl JP 11:56 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Most Americans expect a recession within a year and disapprove of President George W. Bush's handling of the economy even though the unemployment rate is at a five-year low, a new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll found.

Dallas GEP 11:49 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Hourly close on usd/cad crucial...If above 1.1440 then longs probably come in. If NOT then imO shorts will have their say.

Melbourne Qindex 11:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in my monthly cycle projected series the market is testing the upper barrier at 1.3439 // 1.3523. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 1.3523. The monthly cycle normal trading range is 1.3216 - 1.3662.

Dallas GEP 11:45 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well there is a fight down here for sure on usd/cad may be a losing battle for longers will see

hk ab 11:45 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
usually, the dlr/cad is the guide dog for dlr/jpy. what can be "imagined" on this beasty pair? good luck.

hk ab 11:37 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
dlr/cad opening the gate mentioned by oil man, watch out.

hk ab 11:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
gut feeling is dlr/jpy being played by big ones on both side 119.10, 119.40.........

NYC beyond_destiny 11:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
correction of euryen is due. However it may spike up to 161 before corrected to mid 155ish.

Just out short for 5 pips and reload at slight higher for first entry...gotta fight for a few pips in slow market..

hk ab 11:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
fxq//Dlrcad!

ALex//are you around?

Dallas GEP 11:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well AB, looks like he agrees that 1.1440 is a key with break below signaling a potential significant drop. We SHOULD get some more usd/cad buying in US session IMO but who knows.

RIC fxq 11:27 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 11:22 GMT

how so?

hk ab 11:22 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
tonight FOMC minutes look leaked.

hk ab 11:14 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
GEP//suggest you take a look of oil man previous post on dlr/cad front, GL and GT.

la fxt 11:13 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
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Dallas GEP 11:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
YEP I agree....NYAM... I expect we shoild have good support here at the 1.1440/50 area tho

Auckland trotter 11:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
If EUR/USD breaks 1.2413, then will look at the weekly pivot of 1.3386.
4 hour 20 day has a 23.6% fib around 1.3389, and there is a 50% fib on the 1 hour 5 day chart around 1.3396, with 61.8% fib around 1.3383.

Pips are where pips are for now.

London NYAM 11:01 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
GEP: Perhaps this is the micro leg i would have preferred. adding to the position slightly now although im slightly disconcerted with the driop through the support area. gl

Global-View FX + Live Rates 10:56 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
New Forum: FX + Live Rates

We have added an alternative to the fx + ticker forum. You can find it on the left sidebar under Forums, FX+Live Rates. Send us some feedback after trying it.

Dallas GEP 10:50 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
well NYaM...usd/cad does seem to be one of the more stable pairs lately. Going long here for a 1.1520 print

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:48 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Perhaps EURCAD deserves another look?

Dallas GEP 10:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
THX FM............. YEP I agree 6780/85 is a good long area

London NYAM 10:46 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD has bounced smartly off the printed high from 23 july 1.1456. This looks like it will now finally reverse. I would have prefered one more micro leg down but the resistance at this level suggests we may have seen the low.

Global-View AFX NEWS 10:44 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
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hk ab 10:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
short eur/jpy with $2 stop looking for 150.....

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:24 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
just looking at AUDJPY Daily - the present candle could potentially turn into a doji or hanging man - a moderate reversal...
anyone has opinion on that?

hk ab 10:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
the redemption of aud and kiwi cupon seems have no effect much.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:11 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
German BGA exporters' association says exporters could live with new record high in euro-dollar rate. (Reuters)

Atlanta South 09:50 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Another great call on GBP/JPY as usual. Only picked off a few
on my EUR/JPY trade before it flipped. Gt

Auckland trotter 09:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
I have the EUR/USD down from 1.3433 with pressure to 1.3413 for now.

1.3413 is the daily pivot, R1 on the weekly pivots and around a 38.2% fib on the 1 hour 5 day chart.

Como Perrie 08:56 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 07:35 GMT April 11, 2007

Interesting almost same entry points.

btw this usdjpy is lagging in a strange manner above 11890/80...will watch later in US timeframe this one.

PS Purk ref Calls ...traders do not follow calls as If so, they would not be traders anymore. You can hire him however and invest money trough him if want.

Napoli DC 08:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Purk 07:53
parole sante (holy words)

Melbourne Qindex 08:48 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1597. The odds are high that the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412 will be tackled. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.1400 and the market may test the extreme trading range of 1.1040 - 1.1226 if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412.

Sofia mik 08:46 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
no rumours ,no news, no moves

NYC beyond_destiny 08:40 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Out loonie again for 1 pip...better to re-load lower or buy on break

Short euryen 160/159.65/160.8 T/P 159.2

Gen dk 08:13 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Lahore FM 08:03 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
GEP good call for erugbp down to 0.6780 area.right now eurgbp 0.6788 is a reallly nice long.

The Netherlands Purk 07:53 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:21 GMT April 11, 2007

Only looking at the facts here Cris. If he is wrong, i will personally call out for his execution (the trading person) He called for a long on gbp/usd. Of course after that he takes his pips a long the run. He himself claims that he does not know, so he is calling to slice out. I think if you (want to) read between the lines he is trying to help.
I remember his call shorting the e/j at 15870 and 15890, and the pair went to 155+, those where exxellent calls for a doubler on the account.
The man calls out for to be vulnarable (is that english?) as well, and that is what i like in people, show your strength but also show that you are human. You can make up for yourself if you qualify for that.

For now on e/j front: guess that everybody tries to long it, so it will stall and do the up and down thing.

Sydney ACC 07:48 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
With the spring moving season under way, The New York Times has done an analysis of buying vs. renting in every major metropolitan area. The analysis includes data on housing costs and looks at different possibilities for the path of home prices in coming years.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/11/realestate/11leonhardt.html

Indonesia-solo Raden Mas 07:48 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
sorry. i mean 1.9817 (not 1.9717)

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 07:41 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
hello traders.
we will see sellers gbp/usd act to push chart show us 1.9682 as suport tgt. today shown 1.9717 is finished.

madrid mm 07:40 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
BEIJING, China (Reuters) -- China will make scrapping export subsidies that violate World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules one of its priorities this year, a top trade official said in comments published on Wednesday.

http://edition.cnn.com/2007/BUSINESS/04/11/china.wto.reut/

USA Zeus 07:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 07:20 GMT April 11, 2007
USA Zeus 07:17 GMT April 11, 2007

In reference to GBP/USD of course.

madrid mm 07:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 07:08 GMT April 11, 2007

absolutely

A mind game my friend !!!! 8-)

Gen dk 07:30 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 07:27 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well Cathy looks like the "impossible" became reality...

USA Zeus 02:32 GMT April 10, 2007
GBP/JPY setting up for some major action

USA Zeus 22:31 GMT April 9, 2007
The Volatility should increase for some big price swings even if some believe that it is "Impossible to trade period"

USA Zeus 22:20 GMT April 9, 2007
Marked GBP/JPY 234.10 as a point from where volatility is likely to increase.

CT Cris 07:21 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sample of Zues calls for today ,
gbp in directional ,it is negatively up and may be after FOMC
change to positively down...you can say anti clock direction.
====
sample of Purk and others reply.
Zues great call..keep on...thank you for keeping us out .

USA Zeus 07:20 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE
Perhaps not best to buy on pullbacks unless a signal is given. For now slicing out of longs is preferred.

USA Zeus 07:17 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE-

Here we are again on another surge after the last signal to lighten then reload on the dip. GL GT

USA Zeus 07:15 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 06:03 GMT April 11, 2007
LOL- Thx Mr Purkson for the nice words.
Well it was just a lucky strike as I am just a grunt and no one can do what the sand flea does, 100% monthly guaranteed safe as a T-bill for sure etc.

Better stick to his advice as I cannot claim what he does- "...with my views..never lose.”

Syd 07:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:59 GMT If they are not careful they can talk themselves into one

madrid mm 06:59 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
April 11 (Bloomberg) -- Most Americans expect a recession within a year and disapprove of President George W. Bush's handling of the economy even though the unemployment rate is at a five-year low, a new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll found.

Six in 10 who were surveyed predicted a recession, similar to the 64 percent who anticipated the economy would contract in a December 2000 poll by the Los Angeles Times three months before the last decline. In the current survey, 71 percent of those earning less than $40,000 said they expect a recession compared with about half for those making more than $100,000.

madrid mm 06:41 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
* Subprime's Bond Losers Blame Bear, Credit Suisse, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley <---blaming game is coming in 8-)

- The New Zealand dollar may rise to a record 80 U.S. cents in six months because of its higher interest rates, said John Key, leader of the opposition and a former head of currency trading at Merrill Lynch & Co. <--- old news i know

April 11 (Bloomberg)

Mexico City Juan Valdez 06:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 06:23 GMT April 11, 2007
Si senhor and the first game may have been the last as far as the sports crowd up north goes. I saw a Dallas Cowboy American football game here as an exhibition. Man they make such big strong men up there. I realize that NFL sport can't be popular as only a handful of my countrymen could even stand a chance against those monsterous specimens. Ok I go now to milk the goat. bibi

Sydney ACC 06:23 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Mexico City Juan Valdez 06:04 GMT April 11, 2007
The first international cricket match was between teams from USA and Canada. Played in USA in 1844 and there was a crowd of 30,000. Before baseball evidently cricket was a popular sport.

madrid mm 06:13 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
gmt
12:15 CAD Canada Housing starts mar
14:30 GBP U.K. Leading indicator Feb
16:00 USD Fed's Lacker speaks
17:00 USD Fed's Bernanke speaks
18:00 USD FOMC minutes
18:00 USD Fed budget Mar

Mexico City Juan Valdez 06:04 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
My fav was in 2002 Mexico 0-2 USA
The USA played with great determination to overcome a disappointing Mexico team - and secure a place in the last eight for the first time since 1930.

Not bad for a country that doesn't know the difference between cricket and soccer.

The Netherlands Purk 06:03 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Keeping an eye on the e/j here. Not much r/r in shorting yet. Wait until the 160 line is voilated, than kaboom for a few pips.
Ozmond is still above the 82 border. Also waiting on more 82 for a 30 pip correction.
This ZEUS guy is really something. I longed the cable at 19593 but took out some pips, and look where it is now. Does this guy have the script in his hands? MIB will watch this man. And more of the question: should i take him as an advisor instead of the Sandman? Should ask my bank first...

madrid mm 06:00 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 05:48 GMT April 11, 2007
indeed 8-)

Highlights

Philadelphia Fed Charles Plosser, non voter, says maintaining credibility for low inflation is important for good monetary policy. US economy is not as strong as expected 2 months ago; US prices are higher than expected. Any withdrawal of foreign USD based holdings will be manageable. Yield curve is flatter due to stable inflation expectations.

Deputy USTR Karan Bhatia says in Reuters interview that the new WTO cases against China show US is holding Beijing to a higher standard, but does not represent a US slide toward protectionism.

FT: British-based multinationals would be allowed to repatriate billions of pounds of foreign profits tax-free to the UK, under proposals being drawn up by the Treasury to improve the competitiveness of the British tax system. The Treasury will issue a consultation paper this spring to discuss the option of bringing the British system into line with mainland Europe.

WSJ: As mortgage delinquencies climb, lenders say they are taking new steps to work with homeowners in financial trouble. The sharp rise in delinquencies in recent months is straining mortgage companies' ability to respond quickly to borrowers.

Japan Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki says he does not expect Japan (JPY) to be in the spotlight at the G7/IMF .

UK BRC March like-for-like retail sales at +3.9%y/y from 3.3% in Feb. Total retail sales at +6.2%y/y from 5.6% in Feb.

Japan core machinery orders for February -5.2%m/m, vs exp-0.2%, at -4.2%y/y vs mkt expectation of +0.9%y/y

Japan unadj c/a surplus for Feb +4.9%y/y at Y2.4175trn, trade surplus came in +3.6%y/y to Y1.1189trln.

Australia Feb owner occupied housing finance +0.3%m/m. Value of investment housing finance +8.9%. - ABS

EUR/JPY makes another new high of 160.16 after release of weak Japanese machinery orders, rising from 159.85-90, and overcoming yesterday's high of 160.10 after the 160 triggers were breached yest.

USD/JPY hit 119.26 from 119.05-07 on the weaker data, before coming off on talks of Japanese Securities houses/ brokerages selling in USD/JPY, AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, said linked to profit-taking, redemption.

Japanese mega-city banks also sold good amount at fixing, with fixing set at 119.28, with speculation of selling from exporters and Asian accounts.

Talks of good options related selling ahead of 119.40/ 119.50/ 119.70 triggers, with talks of Asian/ China options at 119.50.

EUR/JPY dipping on selling form the Japanese houses, banks, as Cross/JPY dipped across the board, before recovering back again on back of large US banking group buying in EUR/JPY from lows toward 160 again.

Market still buying Cross/JPY on dips, though cautious of any comments from MoF Watanabe/ Fujii, ECB, Europe b4 G7.

AUD/JPY off 10yr highs, NZD/JPY lower as NZ, local, Asian accounts sold Kiwi from its 23-m highs above 0.73. AUD off its 17 and half yr highs 0.8263, as Japanese sec houses sold, but AUD still in demand.

GBP rallied to 1-wk high 1.9780 on FT report of repatriation, seen similar to USD demand on back of US Homeland Investment Act repatriation, focus on Big 2.00, last seen in Sep 1992 b4 ERM Black Wednesday.

GBP/Crosss firmer, EUR/GBP lower, but hearing Russian/ East Europeans bought EUR/ All eyes on Fed Minutes for March 20-21 where Fed changed FOMC statement, dropped "additional firming". Focus on Fed Chair Bernanke/ Lacker.

Nikkei +0.07% or 12.67pts at 17,677. JGBs rally on back of weaker than expected mach orders, 10-yr yield -0.040% at 1.640%

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.88/119.30, EUR/USD 1.3415/1.3441, GBP/USD 1.9711/1.9780, USD/CHF 1.2166/1.2186, AUD/USD 0.8235/0.8267, NZD/USD 0.7261/0.7309.

Sydney ACC 05:58 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Best game since Germany 1 - England 5 in the World Cup Qualifier Munich 2001.

AZUSA 4x-ed 05:48 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 05:41 GMT April 11, 2007 || "Bend it like Ronaldo - The Sequel" should be coming to theaters soon... nice job Red Devils!

madrid mm 05:41 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Man. Untd 7 - 1 Roma . Waooooo !! The English job ? 8-) Definitely value for money 8-)

gm fx jedi

Syd 05:25 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
``Interest-rate expectations are well reflected in the value of the euro, particularly versus the yen,'' said Hideaki Furumaya, foreign exchange team manager at Trust & Custody Services Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. ``I would recommend selling after the ECB meeting, but some traders aren't waiting that long.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=as24I.4HMwVw&refer=news

Syd 05:22 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Australia Missing Out On Mineral Boom On Poor Infrastructure-Min


CANBERRA (AP)--Australia has missed much of a resource boom because of transport bottlenecks that leave ships anchored for weeks waiting to collect coal and iron ore bound for China, Japan and South Korea, the trade minister said Wednesday.

"There is quite a bit of investment coming in at the present time, but it is clearly too late, and we've lost two of the best years that the resource sector has ever had," Trade Minister Warren Truss told reporters.

"We will never be able to make up those two years, and I think that's a tragedy. It's meant that our export performance has not been as good as it could be," he added.

A solid rise in exports sharply narrowed Australia's trade deficit at the start of this year, according to government figures released last month.

Exports rose 2% and imports fell 1% to shrink the January trade gap to A$876 million (US$720 million) at current exchange rates, from a shortfall of A$1.379 billion in December, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

The January trade deficit was Australia's 58th consecutive shortfall.

Truss said the continuing shipping bottlenecks were a national embarrassment and blamed state governments who control the ports for lacking the foresight to anticipate the booming demand for minerals and energy.

"We had record exports last month, but if you look at the volumes of our resource exports, they have not grown as one would expect they should have," Truss said.

The ports have insufficient docking space and loading equipment and state government-owned railways have been unable to transport sufficient quantities of coal from the mines to the ports.

Truss recommended more spending on infrastructure, including rolling stock.

Truss also said Australia's strong currency was damaging the economy. The Australian dollar reached US$0.8267 Wednesday - its highest level since Oct. 10, 1990

"It certainly adversely effects our balance of trade. That's just beyond question," Truss said of the strength of the currency.

"It's also part of the reason why it's so important that countries like China, which are increasingly important as a world trading power, do more to float its currency or expose it to its true value," Truss said.

Truss said he would soon discuss the value of the yuan in meetings with Chinese trade officials.

"It would lead to more balanced trade around the world if all countries allowed their currencies to float," Truss said.

Canberra JD 05:19 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Early london could see some AUD buying. My hopes are on the opposite however, I smell more buying.

AZUSA 4x-ed 04:34 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
допустимый предел для оккупационной выдержк until the (tr)end when they (b)end. välkommen baksida

AMS MAXXIM 04:14 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
допустимый предел trand is your grind

txtx 04:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
any view on cable/dollar pls?

thank you

Syd 03:43 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
China: Preparing For Purchase Of US Goods In May


BEIJING (Dow Jones)--China is "actively preparing" for its planned purchase of U.S. goods in May, Ministry of Commerce spokesman Wang Xinpei said Wednesday.

Wang didn't elaborate on the preparations, but his comment was the first official confirmation of the purchase plan.

Last week, a person familiar with the situation told Dow Jones Newswires that China plans to purchase $12.5 billion worth of goods from the U.S. next month as part of an annual trade mission.

The planned purchase comes as trade tensions between China and the U.S. grow. The U.S. recently slapped punitive tariffs on China's exports of coated paper, and complained to the World Trade Organization over China's poor protection of intellectual property rights.

Market participants are watching to see if the final purchase amount changes from the draft plans. Last year, during a similar trade mission, China announced purchases of an estimated $16 billion in goods from the U.S.

Wang said during a press conference that trade disputes were unavoidable, but China is studying further changes to its export and import policies as part of efforts to adjust its trade structure and narrow its trade surplus.

Sofia mik 03:37 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 02:56 GMT April 11, 2007
China: Preparing For Purchase Of US Goods In May

link,pls,tnxs

new york 03:35 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
what time does tokyo open

USA Zeus 02:57 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 02:40 GMT April 11, 2007

Well Professor- Seems as if this will come down to the combustibility as determined in the distilling process

Happy Day!

Fairfield JPC 02:57 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
It aint going againts me.....I am just throwing that question out there. I am making pips, but I am just dumbfounded with the interesting states of the currencies.

Syd 02:56 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
China: Preparing For Purchase Of US Goods In May

USA Zeus 02:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 02:38 GMT April 11, 2007
Yw- Best to you! Enjoy your time off. :-)

Atlanta South 02:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
It is only weak if it is going against your trade direction. Trade the price direction & the pips should come. IMVHO

USA Zeus 02:49 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JPC 02:42 GMT April 11, 2007

Yes we know the juice but who cares "why" when we know "what"?

Bodrum OEE 02:48 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/269add88-e7a5-11db-8098-000b5df10621,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F269add88-e7a5-11db-8098-000b5df10621.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fhome%2Feurope

UK looks at repatriating profits tax-free
By Vanessa Houlder

Published: April 10 2007 22:05 | Last updated: April 10 2007 22:05

British-based multinationals would be allowed to repatriate billions of pounds of foreign profits tax-free to the UK, under proposals being drawn up by the Treasury to improve the competitiveness of the British tax system.

The Treasury will issue a consultation paper this spring to discuss the option of bringing the British system into line with mainland Europe, which does not tax foreign dividends. The potential reforms – which are not expected to result in an overall tax cut for companies – are likely to be accompanied by stringent anti-avoidance measures and potential new restrictions on the deductibility of interest costs.

Fairfield JPC 02:42 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone know what is going on with the currencies??? I mean come on.......I sense some serious stuff going on behind the scenes. Anyone have any insight as to what is driving this weak, weak, weak, dollar?

AZUSA 4x-ed 02:40 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Time to see if those afterburners are using jet fuel or some other form of tar?

Bodrum OEE 02:38 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:24 GMT April 11, 2007

Thank you and kind regards.

Sydney ACC 02:32 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Contradictory data out from the UK:

High street sales rose 6.2 per cent in March, against a year ago, the BRC reported, the best figure since May. On a like-for-like basis, which strips out changes in floorspace, sales rose 3.9 per cent, the strongest figure since last April.

&

A report by the Council of Mortgage Lenders said that the number of new loans for house purchase, a signal of the future health of the property market, fell to 72,000 in February, the weakest such figure in a year.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article1637389.ece

USA Zeus 02:24 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE-

FWIW- Current GBP/USD is an example of the earlier post mentioned to slice out of longs. Then after position is all square look to reload on corrections as long as the trend has not been violated. GL GT

Atlanta South 02:20 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Rick fxq
Ref 20:23/I agree with you 100% & time will tell. gt

Atlanta South 02:17 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Tks & it is always good to get your views. gt

USA Zeus 02:15 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 02:14 GMT April 11, 2007

Southy- Excellent job! Glad to see your posts. GT
-Z-

Atlanta South 02:14 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY short mentioned @23:19 is working well. Upside
steam turned down.

Bodrum OEE 02:08 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 20:23 GMT April 10, 2007

I had not notice the POLITICAL section. Thank you. I was responding to a comment from a credible source of opinion. On a final note on the issue, she is not and cannot be as corrupt as the current administration of cronysm (to say the least). In case (you are right and) she is, what are the reasons make you glad that I support her? I hope to find your response on the appropriate platform. I will be away for a couple of days. My best wishes to you all.

USA Zeus 02:06 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Wed oil ought to be quite exciting from this current level of 61.8x (May contract) Keep an eye out for fx related flows.

Enjoying the kiwi and Oz musings.
cheers

HK [email protected] 02:05 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/YEN

The uncertainty to where Yen is going is back.

It is better to keep out of the market, and not to jump in to long USD at 118.70. Better to look at the bigger Pic. As one may be carried to a price range near 117.

Sydney ACC 01:56 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
If you look at the AUD/USD monthly chart over the last twenty years you will find that Aussie exceeded 78 US cents on ten occasions, this one being the tenth. The duration ranged from 3 months to 7 months, the longest being in 1988-89.
This time the econoic conditions could be different. Previously when the US economny weakened Aussie suffered this time around with Asian economies moving higher and a sick dollar things are different.

HK [email protected] 01:56 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/Yen

Looks like my be trying to check again the support at around 118.70

Syd 01:54 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY falls on speculators' profit-taking, drop in yen-crosses, position adjustments, says trader at major European bank. Fall likely limited to 118.70, which strong technical support

HK [email protected] 01:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
NZD$

For those who want to go for a lower risk may be a short at 0.7375, but it is too obvious.

Dallas GEP 01:47 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well I will say if KIWI DOESN'T try to bounce long off 7250 I would be VERY surprised which of course would be nothing new regarding the aussie or kiwi

USA BAY 01:44 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

YES true if aud and nzd if.... corrects the reward is good, same thing with eur/aud I guess, but where to short, thats the million dollar question lol.

HK [email protected] 01:40 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
NZD$

May surge again to the range [0.7325,0.7335], a level which is nice for a short, add 30 pips for stop loss.

Dallas GEP 01:37 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
ACC I beleive they KNOW who is buying and choose not to say. Something is very wrong here IMO. Tempting to stay away from kiwi and aussie for time being but hard to do because of enormous profit potential should it correct back 3-400 points

Sydney ACC 01:33 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 01:19 GMT April 11, 2007
Or along wioth everyone else they haven't got a clue either. Whenever I query my bank as to who is buying Kiwi I get told that its foreign names ie Japanese buying against USD or JPY.

Syd 01:29 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
China Shipping Container Lines Co. (2866.HK) said its 2006 net profit fell 76% on excess capacity and rising operating costs.

The Shanghai-based company said late Tuesday its net profit for the year ended Dec. 31 fell to CNY859.2 million from CNY3.58 billion in 2005. Revenue rose to CNY30.50 billion from CNY28.37 billion.

Syd 01:27 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY falls on profit taking by speculators after pair reaches new all-time high amid lack of fresh cues to fuel further gains, says trader at major Japan bank. Tips support at 159.70; if breached, could pave way for further falls toward next support at 159.20

Dallas GEP 01:19 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Could be The bank of NEW ZEALAND is buying up KIWI thru third party agents while trying to feed the market that THEIR perception is that KIWI will correct. This certainly has been done before with BANK'S trading floors recommending to THEIR clients one thing and then THEY themselves are going the other way. This self-feeding machine works well and keeps working until the reality of the situation sets in and you have very few willing to buy the story anymore. HELLLLL I still beleive the KIWI should short but I am totally uncertain as to whether of not the appetite for the KIWI has been satisfied.

Dallas GEP 01:12 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Well as far as KIWI goes, I don't have a clue either. We COULD short from here and put stop 20 pips above today's high which I think is 7311. More than 1 LARGE entity is driving this long IMO but at some point in time if it doesn't short then it kind of blows out FIBONNACI theory because a high apparently has yet to be established.

Syd 01:04 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:01 so am I to be honest :-((

Sydney ACC 01:01 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:49 GMT April 11, 2007
And how many times have we heard this story over the last month.
I must admit, however, I thought 0.7250 was strong resistance, that Kiwi would fail there and retrace back to 0.7100. That is, however, history.
Got any ideas, I'm fresh out.

Sydney ACC 01:01 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:49 GMT April 11, 2007
And how many times have we heard this story over the last month.
I must admit, however, I thought 0.7250 was strong resistance, that Kiwi would fail there and retrace back to 0.7100. That is, however, history.
Got any ideas, I'm fresh out.

Syd 00:49 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD May Struggle To Extend Gains - BNZ
NZD/USD may struggle to extend its gains this week with USD poised for recovery, G7 jitters likely to weigh on carry trade sentiment, says Bank of NZ. Notes speculative market already "exceptionally long" NZD/USD, which together with dramatic narrowing in NZ-U.S. interest rate spreads over past week, pose downside risk; "we'd view a failure at 0.7300 as an opportunity to sell." Still, should pair break above 0.7310 (today's high), that would open up further topside toward 0.7340 (daily high from May 2005); on flip side, a close below 0.7180 near term would be a bearish sign, opening up further downside toward 0.7130

Syd 00:07 GMT April 11, 2007 Reply   
IMF: Cheap Credit Continues To Encourage Risky Investment
Threats to economic stability have eased over the past six months, though low interest rates and a long period of unusually low volatility continue to encourage potentially excessive risk-taking by some investors, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.
"The rapid growth of some innovative instruments, the rise in leverage in parts of the financial system, and the growth of carry trades suggest that market participants are expecting a continuation of the low volatility environment," the IMF said. "A sustained rise in volatility could perturb a wide range of markets."

Low financial market volatility is in part cyclical and temporary, the IMF said.

"Three key factors are abundant global liquidity, still-low corporate leverage, and a high risk appetite," the IMF said. "These factors could reverse in the future."

Low volatility has boosted the popularity of the carry trade, or borrowing in a currency where interest rates are low and investing in another country where yields are high. Earlier this year, participants in the yen-carry trade were reminded how quickly a rise in the value of the yen could wipe out investment returns, the IMF said.

 




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