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Forex Forum Archive for 04/12/2007

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USA BAY 23:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
SYD,

What is he saying, I am away from the tv now. tia

Syd 23:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 23:53 GMT talking about mortgages that have been taken to buy property on Yen loans expects Dlr/Yen 100 loan cost will rise , property prices slipping another nightmare in the making

fairfield JC 23:53 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:47 GMT April 12, 2007

What is he saying? My TV is in the shop....brand new flat screen bit the dust after two days........Sweet!!!!

Mtl JP 23:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:35 / truly an artistic and amazing pipscupulating at 1.1410. At small gain to boot: Kudos.

Syd 23:47 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
CNBC asia live Steve Roache talking Yen Carry Trades

fairfield JC 23:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
ppl letting go of some of their long positions tonight and tomorrow before the weekend due to G7 possible talks about currencies? Any thoughts?

new york 23:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
thank you guys for tokyo open time

USA BAY 23:37 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

Thanks,

---------------------------------

Sri Lanka may take the Cup this time around, so who is long Sri Lanka and who is short Australia (the favourite to take the Cup). LOL. Sri Lanka may turn out to be like KIWI.

AZUSA 4x-ed 23:27 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Singapore Sfx 23:09 GMT April 12, 2007 || Something tells me we are a bit early for the cricket match!?

RIC fxq 23:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
bit to go before HK and Beijing boys hit the screens though.

Lahore FM 23:20 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London C 23:09 GMT April 12, 2007
welcome!

Lahore FM 23:11 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:51 GMT April 12, 2007
quite right.

Singapore Sfx 23:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
tokyo opened an hour and ten ago

London C 23:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   

Lahore FM 17:39 GMT April 12, 2007

Ta for the reply ..was away from the puter for a while ....GL, GT .

Lahore FM 23:03 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
new york 22:58 GMT April 12, 2007
tireless spamming.ehhh?

new york 22:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
sorry what time does tokyo open

new york 22:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
what time does tojkyo open please help me

AZUSA 4x-ed 22:56 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
LA LA, our good friend Moon raised a perfect point. Also, you should know by now that Zeus goes overboard in letting people know that it's critical for them to learn to think for themselves. I would not look at his posts as a buy/sell signal, but as a tool to learning and understanding a trader's psychology. And yes, he gets a bit denfensive (all fun and games aside), but understandably so when one takes great pride in the fact that he is a straight shooter.

USA BAY 22:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
as for aud/usd no resistance till 8385 except option barriers at 8325 and 8350.

USA BAY 22:51 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Great all technical analysis down the drain as far as kiwi is concerned. with usd bearishness, god knows where it is heading. those who were long kiwi must be pippy rich

Global-View 22:49 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
NZ Feb retail sales +1.9% m/m, +6.4% y/y, +2.3% ex-autos. Strong #, above consensus estimates.

Lahore FM 22:49 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
looks kiwi retail sales quite good.up 50 pips.

Atlanta South 22:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Your explanations will never be enough...for some. gt

USA Zeus 22:41 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Yipee the oz smacked .83!!

USA BAY 22:39 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

Hmmm lunch now, at pakistani restaurant, yummy. You must be in California

Baltimore Zoltan 22:34 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
txtx 22:26 GMT April 12, 2007 :

Just my 2c: if you don't have a strong feeling/idea where it's going (i.e., you don't have a position already), you may not want to trade it at all. It may move way too fast either way to catch it. Just IMHO of course.

Toronto WA 22:28 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:21 GMT April 12, 2007

I tend to agree but ran out of tolerance (shorter pockets) my S/L yesterday was in the 1370's.. The censored thing has to bounce soon;)

txtx 22:26 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
does anyone bet positioin before the nzd news?

USA Zeus 22:21 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Toronto WA 22:14 GMT April 12, 2007
Thx WA- Never know for certain but I do enjoy going with the trend a lot better to be honest. But, all trends capitulate and end when it seems least likely in a counter-contra sort of way. Let's see...

Lahore FM 22:18 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:11 GMT April 12, 2007
am running 1.1385 long stopless.also added 1.1350 with 30 bid stop.let us see if support kicks in.

USA Zeus 22:16 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD look to be in their final blowoff phase higher.

Toronto WA 22:14 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 22:11 GMT April 12, 2007

I admire your tenacity . ..

Lahore FM 22:13 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:09 GMT April 12, 2007
from audnzd charts alone it should be a bad data for kiwi but that's about only thing i can say.

Global-View 22:12 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Re NZD data, see the bottom of this report

USA Zeus 22:11 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Had to put more $ where my mouth is while we enjoy the silence of the lambs and bought more USD/CAD 1.1347's on a limit order filled while feasting at my favorite Pakistani restaurant. Was it a celebration or the last supper? LOL
Am 99.999% For sure that the reversal will be seen soon.
Ave price 1.1354...

txtx 22:10 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
yes yes .. data is coming out for nzd

anyone got a view on it?
should i short or long?

thanks

USA BAY 22:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

No prob fm, even I am still confused because of the 1 hour time difference in spring

USA BAY 22:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
any clue whats the nz data going to be like.

Analista Fx 22:07 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
nzd data 23.45 gmt (wait more 38 minutes)
;)

Lahore FM 22:06 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 22:04 GMT April 12, 2007
lolzzz..hmmm sleepy i guess.never mind.

USA BAY 22:05 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
thanks toronto wa.

USA BAY 22:04 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM,

It is not 2245gmt yet, thanks a lot pal. gt/gl

Toronto WA 22:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
22:45 - sorry - typo

Lahore FM 22:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
sorry for the computer glitch.Bay it can make to 1.1540.

Toronto WA 22:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Data due in 25 mins -> 22:35 gmt ;)

Lahore FM 22:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
BAY

Lahore FM 22:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
BAY

Lahore FM 22:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
BAY

Lahore FM 21:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:52 GMT April 12, 2007
2245 gmt.must have been released.would like an update from Syd.my feed has nothing on it.audnzd already rising though back to where from it dropped.

USA BAY 21:53 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
AUD/CAD looks like a sell at 0.9405, tp 0.9340/50

USA BAY 21:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
LAHORE FM

WHAT time is the data pls. tia

Lahore FM 21:44 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
audnzd 1.1330 still looks like a buy though a bit would dpened on kiwi data shortly.

GVI john 21:36 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3481	119.06	1.2167	1.9781	1.1351	0.8288	160.50
High	1.3505	119.52	1.2247	1.9812	1.1410	0.8292	160.87
Low	1.3430	118.80	1.2131	1.9728	1.1337	0.8235	160.18
12-Apr-07							
Simple mva	basis =>	39184.00					
5 day 	1.3412	119.22	1.2206	1.9702	1.1452	0.8223	159.90
10 day	1.3390	118.79	1.2191	1.9718	1.1504	0.8188	159.06
20 day 	1.3357	118.21	1.2164	1.9659	1.1565	0.8118	157.89
50 day 	1.3214	118.75	1.2258	1.9560	1.1661	0.7942	156.92
100 day	1.3154	118.81	1.2261	1.9581	1.1648	0.7890	156.28
200 day	1.2945	117.95	1.2347	1.9206	1.1454	0.7744	152.70

GVI john 21:26 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Lahore FM 21:25 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
bought usdcad 1.1350..........30 stops.

Syd 21:20 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Muslim extremists recruiting Australian Somalis
Muslim extremists are recruiting young Somali refugees in Sydney and Melbourne for what a Somali community leader fears could be a terrorist attack in Australia.An Australian Federal Police spokesman said he could not discuss investigations in Australia, but it was investigating the alleged death of an Australian in Somalia.

theage.com.au, AAP



RIC fxq 21:03 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:56 GMT

reverse mtgs are not a big problem or major factor since the monies "loaned" out represent owner equity not mkt valuations and they do not over lend to the elderly who are drawing down on the actual equity they have in their homes.

RIC fxq 21:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Athens MK:

as I expressed earlier I am getting that tingly feeling that GBP is about to head south. Too many fundamental issues that are very similar to the US and not enough interest rate differential (none) or prospects for further hikes to justify it being where it is. Also today GBPJPY seemed the laggard Yen cross and is also highly vulnerable.

My opinion about short USDCAD positions is similarly tingly and as CB pointed out earlier the ties between the US (70+% of CAD exports are to the US) makes me bery skeptical especially as many non-regular loonie traders have piled onto it in the past three days and are simply running with a momentum trade that is now seriousl IT/ST overextended to the sell side on the basis of my work.

USA Zeus 20:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Can sense the dealers' anxiety here on USD/CAD. The cream is coming...

Halifax CB 20:56 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Idle question time - iare there companies specializing in reverse mortgages in the States - and if so, how are they doing? One can't help but think that over the last few years of the housing boom they may have become a little over-speculative. Though certain health care problems (like high meds cost) may improve their fortune a bit....

Athens MK 20:51 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Here are my thoughts on gbp/$:

First target is 1.9695
Second target is: 1.9665
Swing trade target: 1.9380
Long term target: 1.85
Stop: 2.0035

Looking at interest rates for the pair 5.25% for both and U.S. FED still bothered by the bias for higher inflation numbers with the fed governors looking to raise or hold at current levels.

U.K. BOE committee looking to actually cut rates or hold at current level......

Cable is looking to range unless carry trades start to panic with the associated effects of dropping GBP/$ to 1.85 over the next 10 months.......

Any thoughts?

Mtl JP 20:44 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 18.38/ GVI john 17:16 GMT April 12, 2007
No major data are slated for release from Japan on Friday. The Eurozone will release February Industrial Production data.

At 12:30 GMT (08:30 EDT), the February U.S. trade gap is seen at $60.0bln vs. -$59.1bn in January. Also March PPI is seen at +0.7% m/m vs. +1.3% in February. Core PPI is seen at +0.2% vs. +0.4%. The April preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment index is seen at 87.5 vs. 88.4 in March.
- courtesy gvi

Philadelphia Caba 20:41 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 20:27
..all based on technicals...??? not sure if carry trades trading can be based on any technicals at all...anyway gl!

GENEVA DS 20:27 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
MORE of the same in the store... buying EUR and GBP and AUD against JPY and CHF... a new favourite has been born this week obviously CAD... so the trends will soon accelerate probably... EURJPY 180... ish... before dramatical downturn back to 130... EURCHF to 17000 before the real test of 14500 later this year... USDCAD 1.0200 before reversal back to 12500 ish.... all based on technicals ... but sometimes this stuff is even working... good luck to all...

RIC fxq 20:25 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:16 GMT

spot on and compounded at the moment by th CADJPY carry trade(r's).

USA Zeus 20:18 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 20:16 GMT April 12, 2007
Thx- Appreciate that. And for this very reason I generally do not trade CAD as one of the quick strike scalp trades that are usually posted but rather as a position.

GL GT! :-)

USA Zeus 20:16 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
I imagine that China with all their USD's want to do all they can to deflate their assets.
Hmmm...Why not just let their currency float? LOL!

Halifax CB 20:16 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - You may well be right; my own experience is that a tolerance for pain and waywardness is essential in trading CAD. As long as those bounces of yours aren't too high :)

Fairfeild - I'm sure someone will, sooner or later. After all (as I've said before) Canada is more or less the steerage passengers huddled at the back of the Titanic as she noses down, enjoying the view from their (temporarily) high perch....Whatever happens to the States tends to happen up here, just a little later, but more severely. But right now - not only with the economic pressure casued by US/Asia trade relations, but also a potentially very divisive US election in the works, I would stay clear of long USD/CAD until there was a clear sign of changes somewhere, somehow....

fairfield JC 20:03 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB-

So you are saying you dont think anyone will step in and start to buy the USD because the US and China are steadily keeping it on the bearish side?

USA Zeus 19:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Yes- I am speaking my book but am as for sure as I can be without being for sure (That's for sure) that a USD/CAD bounce is imminent soon. Could it be the cream?

Halifax CB 19:49 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JC 18:09 GMT April 12, 2007
My opinion is that when you have one major player (China) committed to at least a 5 to 7% devaluation per year of the USD, and another major player (the US) actually asking for more, expecting large counter trends from other majors is , well, counter-intuitive :)

USA Zeus 19:18 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 18:08 GMT April 12, 2007
Great GL! The whole world seems to be against us!!! LOL

On another note WTI oil hit 63.80 after yesterday's clear the path quadratic fulcrum 61.80 directional break.

Fairfield JC 19:15 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY-

As far as suggesting something, I dont think that I qualify like some of the other ppl in this thread. I dont speculate, I just grab what I can from what I see. But recently I have had more of an interest in the longer term trades, like the carry trades that are driving the markets now. So in regards to that, when...if at all soon the dollar weakness bottoms/tops out, I would like to enjoy the ride/slide of the bears.

Lahore FM 19:06 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Global-View 19:03 GMT April 12, 2007
yep looking okay.

Global-View 19:03 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Note the new navigation bar on the top of our pages.

madrid mm 18:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
i see nothing on the radar PAR for JPY

PAR 18:38 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Some bad economic news expected from Japan tomorrow ?

Lahore FM 18:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Oilman you had once posted a chart from your blog,of audnzd,gbp and one other thing,can't recall which.you had also suggested that the rising audnzd had some corelation efect on gbpusd and the third thing,perhaps gold.can you kindly tell about it once more as to what implication a rising audnzd would suggest for gbpusd and the third instrument?tia.

USA BAY 18:22 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
FAIRFIELD,

What do you suggest.

Fairfield JC 18:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
With a possible double bottom coming up on the USD index charts, and the steep, can I say absurd levels of strength against the USD in the majors. Might be topping out here??? What are ppl thinking? I dont normally take long term trades, but this seems like it might be a good time to do so? Any Insight, or info?

jkt-aye 18:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 18:01

unfortunately i'm missing to ride it south from order 1.1420 last night.
now lets ride together. will be out on 1.1380-1.1420. gtgl

USA Zeus 18:07 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Must be cool as ice(man) and get set for the 100% unsure.
But we are at on of JP's (excellent call) targets so perhaps he will call off his crew soon.....

jkt-aye 18:04 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
...but with finger crossed. rotflol

USA Zeus 18:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Feeling like this USD/CAD position is getting well positioned to take some "cream" or else will get "creamed" LOL
Thank the good shepherd for the 1.1410 pop late y'day from the hot zone- whew!

Have a couple more large orders can place before determining the get creamed level.
GT

jkt-aye 18:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
ready fo pull the trigger..............
come on on baby ... come to papa
BANG ... !!!
i'm on as Mc Arthur say " I shall return "

USA Zeus 17:56 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
noodled a little bit more at offer 1.1338 for new ave price 1.1358

USA BAY 17:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
I think usd/cad is going for support at 1.1290.

The Netherlands Purk 17:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Now watch the 11330 in loonie. It will bounce from there.

USA Zeus 17:51 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Using some of that exponential heat-
New USD/CAD Ave 1.1361.

Syd 17:49 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
The Inevitable Global "ERM" Crisis

Don't get me wrong, I like long euro, C$ and pound trades against the dollar ahead. But this is chicken feed for where the real monster trades are in the currency market today. At the risk of sounding a bit anti climatic, the real risk in the currency market is in the carry trade. Ugghh. Who cares? But wait. The carry trade I am talking about goes well beyond simply short yen and long euros, dollars or even Brazilian real. The carry trade I am talking about is long many high yielding currencies against many lower yielding currencies times leverage. It is the 1990's ERM trade redux on a far grander scale. Low volatility in interest rates and exchange rates, cheap liquidity in any currency, financial market innovation like NDF's, low transaction costs, managed exchange rate regimes in some high yield and low yield economies and G7 committed to low volatility for all asset markets and currencies.

Most of these carry trades are characterized as systems or models. Some are discretionary. Some are both. But everyone from hedge funds to central banks are involved.

While no one can forecast or time the event that leads to the great unwind of the global ERM trade, we should know that the current conditions will not prevail indefinitely. But we should be aware that opportunities will present themselves ahead that could yield the kind of returns that George Soros earned betting against the pound staying inside the ERM.
Indeed knocking out the Brazilian real would very likely have contagious fallout for most carry trades and risk. With Brazil debt getting closer to investment grade status, it does not appear to be the most at risk currency in the global grid of carry trades. Moreover a year ago May it survived a pretty violent correction (BRL, bonds and equities). Nevertheless, it is perhaps one of the largest longs in the global ERM game. Maybe it is the Turkish lira. Maybe it is something as sublime as won/yen. My point is there are so many pairs of carry trades out there funded by a lot more shorts than yen and Swiss franc and in time there will be an event that clears most of the trades out - events that alter the outlook (vol, low rates, liquidity) of low yield currencies or similarly the high yield currencies much as happened in the the 1990's with the original ERM.
This global ERM money printing trade is surely not unlike what drove assumptions at LTCM in the late 1990's and ultimately ended when those rare, > 1 standard deviation events occurred.

What would this mean for the dollar? I think the dollar will rally, just as it did in 1992 when sterling fell from grace. There is only so much real one can sell for CZK before one goes to buying dollars for real and dealing with CZK short after. The global carry trade does not depend on a weak (or strong) USD. But a rapid unwind would see the dollar, in a second order manner, firm vs the high yielding longs that no one wants. The dollar would have downside risk against the funding currencies in this environment, however.

It would be cavalier to say the global ERM trade is especially vulnerable. Indeed it has survived two major shocks (May 2006 and late Feb to early-Mar 2007). If anything it is relatively robust. And history so far suggests joining it not beating it. However, it will unravel and this will surely be one of the largest profit opportunities in FX in many years.
Just remember benign global financial and real sector conditions are not permanent states.
David Gilmore
FXA

USA Zeus 17:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Added USD/CAD 1.1344 on offer rate.

PAR 17:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Retail stock gains should be good for yen since most products american buy are made in Japan or China .

Mtl JP 17:47 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
exponential: can describe growth or decay of a population. Folkloricaly it typicaly connotes surprisingly fast. Mathematicaly, it can - but does not have to - be very slow absolute rate.

The Netherlands Purk 17:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 17:39 GMT April 12, 2007

sh.. Ric, i often wonder what that high means, is it sell or is it buy? I sold personally at 13495 sell. And GC bl... I showed in the high thing 13499.... On the Dutch news the guy told us that the 135 was tipped and than fell back.

Makassar Alimin 17:43 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 17:36 GMT April 12, 2007

nice to see you around too, FM :) i think we will have something next week for yen pairs, i know you are waiting for that usdjpy prize ;)

The Netherlands Purk 17:43 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 15:06 GMT April 12, 2007
The Netherlands Purk 14:55 GMT April 12, 2007

13495-20=13475. hit 12:58 some USA time... Swissy does not walk side by side anymore with e/u....

RIC fxq 17:39 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Purk, mine shows 13504 mid point and EBS reportedly 13505 according to one source I saw. :(

Lahore FM 17:39 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London C 16:43 GMT April 12, 2007
dear C,see it upto 1.3570 but time is near for an about turn so we might stall somewhere sooner.even today's high might not be a bad place to have stalled.Read Alimin's comments below.

The Netherlands Purk 17:38 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hmmm that was a quick hit on the e/u... my platty shows me 13499 i bl... missed out 4 pips, not looking good there. Loonie ticking to the lows that means for me low is not seen yet. I am curious to see if 135 will print, if it does it will be sure 0% that we hit 136...
hmpf.

Lahore FM 17:36 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 17:23 GMT April 12, 2007
thoroughly interesting as always!thanx for being around.

Ldn 17:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Trichet said that he still sees a danger of a disorderly unwinding of the recent trend towards the low pricing of risk in financial markets.The current low levels of credit spreads, volatility and long-term bond yields are unlikely to be sustainable in the long run, but he said it is important that any unwinding of current positions is gradual."What is very important for us is that the necessary adjustment takes place progressively, (in an) orderly (manner) and not sharply and abruptly," he said.

Makassar Alimin 17:23 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
usdchf and usdjpy are both acting as usd's last defense, with the two being so resilient, anyone betting for double bottom usd index?
usdcad might be holding the key here IMHO... with usdchf and usdjpy are there to hold a nice, slow steady downtrend in usd

USA Zeus 17:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 16:34 GMT April 12, 2007

Hello friend. Well looking to allocate more and go exponential in size if we drop lower from here- steady as she goes. Have plenty of ammo left to chase it lower- much lower if needed. Some of my indicator info at certain new extremes show a high probability reaction soon.

But then again could get "creamed" as one so eloquently put it.

Current ave price is 1.1378.
GL GT- Hope you crush it

Atlanta South 17:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
Ref USD/JPY//I'm looking for sub 118.50 for near term. gt

USA BAY 17:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
usd/chf, resistance is at 1.2190, if that is not cleared then it may be a sell again but the hourlies are oversold and maybe if 1.2190 fails it is a sell at 1.2185 imvho

USA BAY 16:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY seems to be heading below, maybe 115.14 and even 114 which is the long term trenline support. any comments

jkt-aye 16:53 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Bay, not me friend. :) as far as i know, Revdax is the only chief in this room.

USA BAY 16:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
RIC FXQ,

YES, it does look like the weak link. Thanks,

----------------------------------------------------

JKT-AYE,

What are you cooking??? Are we all invited. LOL

jkt-aye 16:47 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
thx FM, highly appreciated ... as always. gt

jkt-aye 16:45 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:16 GMT April 11, 2007
Placed order to SELL eur/chf at 1.6400 for a target of 1.6350.
==========================
Thx for the info, grab some from it. :)

hk revdax 15:07 GMT April 12, 2007
My voodoo technology suggests that there is not much room in the downside for $/CHF today and tomorrow. But would like some views. Tks
==========================
start cooking again ? gt



London C 16:43 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Hi FM

you got any views on euro/usd....

RIC fxq 16:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 16:39 GMT

certainly acting the weak link in the chain which is we I lean Cable

USA BAY 16:39 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Seems like gbp/jpy is ready to move down soon and may bring the other jpy crosses with it. any views??

Lahore FM 16:37 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
jkt-aye 16:34 GMT April 12, 2007
only below 1.1360 on dayclose basis would have me think we might have something unususal going,like a long term reversal so to speak,it is opportuniyty to buy imho around 1.1360.

jkt-aye 16:34 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
lurking around try to find some geese, after got more ammo from the smaller bird (kiwi). :)

any one see the possibility to tackle 1.1420 - 1.1440 - 1.1550 as some of my charts show it as the magnetic level ?
Zeus / FM ?

Sofia mik 16:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
uscad long 61

kl anita 15:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
good read dallas

PAR 15:53 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
CNN . German military plane crashes in Switzerland .

Dallas GEP 15:53 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Order to SELL eur/gbp at 6820 was triggered. Target 6790

RIC fxq 15:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
china tan 15:36

just posted a comment on my blog that I was getting a very itchy trigger finger of a decent correction in Cable. Partly because GBPJPY is closer to mirroring USDJPY and also because if the next set of BoE minutes show a 5-3-1 or 6-3 split on the recent hike we may be very close to the end of the UK increase cycle.

china tan 15:36 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
i think gbp start to downtrend

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:34 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 15:30 // tnank you!!

USA Zeus 15:34 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Looks like this is where USD/CAD gets real interesting...

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
btw - EURUSD 2 hour chart - I assume the recent consolidation is forming a channel (much resembling a rising wedge but still too wide so more of a channel...)
> so since a channel represents a continuation pattern - then the breach to the upside must assure the trend presence..

Lahore FM 15:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
god read=good read

Lahore FM 15:30 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:27 GMT April 12, 2007
that was a god read-i see clarity and understanding.good job!!best of trades!

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:27 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD on 2 h mabe looking to challange the recent highs at 1.9812/17/23... (I assume a Daily close above will start the directional move to 99 and the 2.00 psychological mark)

EURSD 2 hours is also showing signs of acceleration of the uptrend - the breach of the upper line of the recent consolidation channel around 1.3460 adds more confidence to this scenario..
for both majors the mid term 20 & 50 DMAs are set for uptrend

USDJPY - is trending from Mar 29 Low - but as it was mentioned here by Lahore FM - there are signs of topping out - and as we saw previously this slow trending is exchanged for a sharp plunge...

wrote this just in ana effort to rationalize my chart observations -

kl anita 15:22 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
dont late

PAR 15:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Took small profit on short USDJPY but dont trust those japanese. Think USDJPY could again move higher .

Van jv 15:18 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
DX testing dec. lows--can see double bottom or slice through

kl anita 15:11 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
settle buy for gbp and make new sell ..

RIC fxq 15:10 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hk revdax 15:07

that is the sense I get from trader comments on MNI fwiw. USD -< in some pairs is slowing leaving EUR overextended

London NYAM 15:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Treviso: I’m currently short usdjpy but the trend since the March bottom is up on hourlies. BUT the movement is also NOT impulsive (with the last leg up looking like a broken out e-wave I mentioned last week). Since it seems corrective the question is “is it complete?” I think, yes, but a daily close below the 117.20 rising trend line support, would imply the dollar bears and carry risk avoiders are back.
Short term, 118.30-40, 117.90-118.00 and 117.60-70 will get in the way first. IMHO.

hk revdax 15:07 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
My voodoo technology suggests that there is not much room in the downside for $/CHF today and tomorrow. But would like some views. Tks

NYC beyond_destiny 15:06 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 14:55 GMT April 12, 2007

What's ur T/P for E/u?

I chose to long swissie, instead of e/u short. Any suggestion? TIA

St. Annaland Bob 15:04 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Purkovsky !!!

St. Annaland Bob 15:04 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
purkovsy, zet 'm op !!!

Mtl JP 15:03 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 14:57 / The more immediate and bigger question of that will be on PPI. In other words, market should speculate about manufacturers' ability to pass their increased input costs along the feeding chain to finaly the Consumer with consequent possible effect on what the FED calls "inflation". Which the FED seems to be eager to "anchor" judging from recent FED yikyak.

Livingston nh 15:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR - tomorrow's trade figs are for FEB not March

PAR 14:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Big rise in import prices doesnt bode well for tomorrows Us trade deficit .

The Netherlands Purk 14:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Second chance for shorters in e/u coming up....

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 14:50 //
couldn't be that way without you mate..

TREVISO Fede 14:51 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM : Do you think $Y will go down to new low? thks

Lahore FM 14:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
i truly apprecaite the membership and members of this forum.it is one lively place.a true cross section of fx traders.

PAR 14:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Profit forecasts for US companies have been downgraded so much that I would be surprised if there was a single Us company reporting worse than expected results .

melbourne DC 14:49 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
for moves last hour, ifr report afr tpping may hike (hence audusd up) ... another chat says some confused to be ecb may hike (hence eurusd up ) :))

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:47 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:41 //
tnx 4 ur opinion!

The Netherlands Purk 14:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Right first short at 13495 here. Note: i am only looking for 20 pips max, so target will be... i will add 1 if 13512-20 is seen.
E/U

Analista Fx 14:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
bought usd/cad 1.1364 hunting next week stop profit 1.1510

Lahore FM 14:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 14:35 GMT April 12, 2007
very much involved had the scalp taken for minus 15.but have stopless positions on.

London NYAM 14:41 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
I would want to see a close under 1.2130 before confirming the likelihood of a breakout in order to test the 120.29 low that you point out and it will also encounter support at 120.70-80.

New Brighton gvm 14:35 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM you still involved in Dollar Yen or obeyed your 40 Stop?

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:31 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:00 //
mate - do you watch USDCHF
> on 4 h it is breaching the bottom of the recent channel from the Mar 17 Low
> on Daily this channel looks very much like a bearish Flag - now being breached around 1.2155/60 - - it's a Continuation pattern - so a possible target is below 1.1950
--of course if it closes and opens below the todays close (for confirmation..)

Canberra JD 14:27 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hmmmmmmmmm A/u is suspicious.

Lahore FM 14:25 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Canberra JD 14:23 GMT April 12, 2007
it is going for 0.8400.also audnzd going for 1.1540.

The Netherlands Purk 14:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Low in loonie today probably around 11330. So pattern will be: 11330-11350-11320, and if that breaks 11277.

e/u: dangerous to short here but we are near to the 2,5 hours i spoke of earlier. Shorters wait for half an hour and you can witness the high. 13512-20 can be in the cards.
Shorters in euro have 2 chances to pick the top btw...

Canberra JD 14:23 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
wat the censored was that a/u spike...

Lahore FM 14:22 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
kl anita 14:20 GMT April 12, 2007
look for newsonly to time trades and see when next impetus might come in handy.other than that it is all techs.

kl anita 14:20 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM

feel it might roam about 9780 a while and then higher for 1.9920.

why u so sure?any news

Mtl JP 14:17 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
fwiw: next reasonable dlrcad support (and target only 95pips off current price level): 1.1270

PAR 14:15 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
US stock and bond markets holding up extremely well despite higher import prices, high crude prices , jump in jobless claims , lower dollar and deteriorating Iraqi situation .

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
on BMBG tv - there is report now why short seller would sell Small-Caps..

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:07 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:00 //
would be great!

USA Zeus 14:04 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:59 GMT April 12, 2007
Some lots. Planning to add more at lower levels steady as she goes. Not a quick strike trade as is often the case here.

hk ab 14:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
zeus, any action seeen on gold form your side?

London NYAM 14:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn// thanks for asking. I usually feel like im talking to a wall.
The H&S isnt perfect in either case i think. I read a technician that claimed to have tested the configurations against false breakouts, and found it was about reliable 2 in 3 times. Pretty good but cant bet any farms on it. He also claimed that the target was highly dependant upon the scale of the rise or fall into the formation and the measurement frequently underestiated the final move in price.
If i can dig up the book, i'll post the reference.

EU theEUROqueen 14:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Thank u Mr. Tricht..Bob not only against the Tyr against usd too

happy trade

New Brighton gvm 14:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
I might have been a liitle few wines to the wind the other day and if I was found to be obnoxious I do apologize but at the same time I do still hold strongly to the opinion that Dollar Yen divergence dictates I maintain a long yen position - it costs points daily - I have my stops but I maintain the position FWIW

hk ab 13:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
zeus, some or lots?

Lahore FM 13:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
kl anita 13:57 GMT April 12, 2007
you are the master blaster yourself,why would you ask?kidding!!feel it might roam about 9780 a while and then higher for 1.9920.

PAR 13:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Crude and metals moving higheron back of lower dollar.

USA Zeus 13:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 13:54 GMT April 12, 2007

It's not the exchange that is different but the contract. Look on ICE at the WTI quote.

kl anita 13:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
gbp usd? any news guys? down or up

TREVISO Fede 13:56 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Hold my big position short on $/Y from 119,40.

USA Zeus 13:56 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Ok- Bought some USD/CAD 1.1358

St. Annaland Bob 13:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
bon appetite

how many CHF they must sell to have the full amount?

New Brighton gvm 13:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - thx for details on CAD. Understood you trade NYMEX oil but was looking for your call on why the differential Brent/Nymex May contract ..... = buy Nymex/Sell Brent - whats your opinion?

Atlanta South 13:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
People, just give MS SPEAKER time & it will all be made correct. ?

NYC beyond_destiny 13:53 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
chicago goofy 13:20 GMT April 12, 2007

You mean swissie?

I calculated swsisie based on euro level and seems it was dragged down by P/T of Eurchf. Any suggestion? TIA

Como Perrie 13:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
done for the day...bibi

USA Zeus 13:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 13:44 GMT April 12, 2007

No stop level yet as am looking to add to the position still. After being fully allocated again will look to establish a stop.

USA Zeus 13:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
New Brighton gvm 13:36 GMT April 12, 2007

You are quoting BRENT. I'm quoting WTI as you know. LOL

Dublin Flip 13:45 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR those were domestic conflicts by domestic nutjobs which use El Q as the franchise name for their seperate grievances.

If it were 70 years ago we'd say El Q were behind the Spanish Revolution.

Auckland peat 13:44 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
dow is falling ...40 pts so far

New Brighton gvm 13:44 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus - where is your current stop on your CAD possie after your profit taking on earlier possies? TIA

PAR 13:44 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Yen just not able to go below 119.00. Will Kampo never get nervous with all those billions of dollars ?

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:29 GMT //
tnx for answering!
I have been recently studying chart patterns but must admit - it's hard when trying to apply it to practice...
The previous figure around Mar 20 to 27 is not that good shaped as the present one...
here the neckline is better projected so it's easier to measure the height from neck to mid top..

Atlanta South 13:40 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
Ref 13:34 Tks for your views as it is always good to get
comfirmations from those more versed in trading than mysef.
Gt

dc CB 13:40 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
US: Import Prices +1.7% vs Bloomberg Consensus of +0.8%, prior +0.2%

Largest increase in prices of IMPORTS was with Canada at 4.1%; EU: +3%; China: -.6%

Como Perrie 13:37 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:19 GMT April 12, 2007

:)

not following myself that... too busy here with other stuffs fixing up my more short term views... ref cable yes its some 3 hours we pushing up here and might go catch upper some back below say some 60 might turn upside downside very easily...G7 tomorrow the most important thing to me so taking It very easy ... not sure usdcad at current levels...let's see later on the US:EIA Natual Gas Report in some one hour from now... I wonder oil to drop ahead of G7, guess they might talk It

New Brighton gvm 13:36 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:29 why trade NYMEX @ 63 - ICE is trading same month at 68.50 - started from the same level a few weeks back

USA Zeus 13:35 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:29 GMT April 12, 2007
Thx FM- Agree. Unloaded some big slabs @ 1.1410 earlier for a small gain and load up more on the drill down.
GT

Lahore FM 13:34 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 13:33 GMT April 12, 2007
dear south it remains unchanged.looking for 118.00 and 117.xx.

PAR 13:33 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Iraqi A Qaida terrorist activity spreading to Nord Africa, Marocco and Algeria could hit Europe .

Atlanta South 13:33 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
Would you kindly dispense your views on USD/JPY?
Tks & gt.

London NYAM 13:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Hi Kapricorn: Yes that one. Its right shoulder is a double hump like MAR 20 to MAR 23 brraking on MAR 27 measuring off the double hump axample there would give a target of 118.03.

Lahore FM 13:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:26 GMT April 12, 2007
for it is almost never in straight lines.gtgl.

USA Zeus 13:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:32 GMT April 11, 2007
Well today's exciting bucking bronco oil ride from the quadratic fulcrum point of 61.80 has cleared the path for what looks like a direction break on Thurs.


Well here we are at 62.88 and still 30 mins before the pitty's go to work LOL

New Brighton gvm 13:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
cant find a MA that tells me to sell Lunny - love watching egotistical bottom fishers getting creamed - SELL USD - BUY CAD now @ 1.1375

USA Zeus 13:26 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Looking to load up some more USD/CAD a bit lower here...

New Brighton gvm 13:23 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
US dollar toilet bound - time to buy Canadian dollar is right now - we are 111 bound - enjoy the trip

chicago goofy 13:20 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 13:12 GMT April 12, 2007

a bit early imo

dc CB 13:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
for all you CD fans. from Briefing.com

FCX Freeport-McMoRan: Reorganization of business partner influences future takeover opportunities
Prudential believes this 24.75% interest in Tenke Fungurume is a logical takeover candidate for FCX. They believe the decision of the Lundin group controlling shareholders, both in Tenke Mining and Lundin Mining, to merge the two cos effectively forces FCX or some other acquirer like Teck Cominco or Xstrata or someone else to buy out Lundin's copper, lead, zinc, and silver interests contained in Lundin Mining at current near record metals prices to get Tenke.

USA Zeus 13:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 12:46 GMT April 12, 2007
Hi Perrie- Am here but trying to determine what a “for sure” long GBP.USD signal means if it is clear that it is to decline instead. Seems like one can determine that it is to rise for sure then if it does tp >= the for sure level then go short on a reverse. Instead it reads go long at 1.9755 then start shorting at 1.9770 and higher and higher up to 1.9835. Hmmm-

10:51 GMT April 12, 2007
gbp.usd
====
sell at 19770 , sell another after data if rise at 19800 and another at 19835.
tp after an hour.

10:41 GMT April 12, 2007
gbp.usd
=======
will be clear to decline to lower level during after data.

19:18 GMT April 11, 2007
gbp.usd
===
for sure it will rise above 19800.

The Netherlands Purk 13:16 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Very nice e/j there: 16030 seen. For now 15980 is the line for the shorters to watch and 160 voilation for the longers...

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:14 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 13:06 GMT //
hi - I assume you address the Trendline connecting the Apr 05 - 10 - 11 Lows - the present candle breached this T/L at 119.04

I ask because it looks like a H&S but a little tilted to the left one... I have seen such patterns in some chart sources..

Lahore FM 13:12 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
as long as eurusd is in its renewed bullish mode usdcad will remain tame and make no sudden slides,imho.

PAR 13:12 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Conveniently Trichet forgets to mention that since Essen EURJPY is up about 4 %. In one month .

NYC beyond_destiny 13:12 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Out Euryen short 160/160.8 at 160.25, bad risk/reward

Limit Sell 160.95

Long Swissie 1.218 T/P open

Could be the low in next six weeks as market may begin to discount the priced in rate hike of Euro and support by continuation of uptrend of e/chf & g/chf

slv sam 13:11 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
usdyen will touch 120 before sharply down imo!GT

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
always interesting to watch ECB head live.. especially the Q&A session - how reporters try hard to get clear stance on rates

London NYAM 13:06 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Neckline on hourly broken targets 118.40. USDJPY

Lahore FM 13:05 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
squared half a truckload at 235.37.

St. Annaland Bob 13:05 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 12:56 GMT April 12, 2007

oh boy ... I talk fx and look what I get from you ... anyway, it looks like you made some pips and girls run after you, it's ok if your choice is to call that love ... lol

PAR 12:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
On Forex as expected Trichet referring to G7 previous communiques . Yen should reflect economic fundamentals of improving japanese economy as agreed in Essen .

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:52 //
the original correlation was EUR and GBP up - - JPY and CHF down..
but present forex market seems to be driven by other flows - so for EUR up it might be EURJPY up...
of course this is just 2 cent comment..

madrid mm 12:56 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 12:52 GMT April 12, 2007
it is like making love.....There is theory and practice ....Sometimes all theories go through the window lol

London NYAM 12:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
FWIW stopped out od USDCAD at 1.1390

Lahore FM 12:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
below 119.10 usdjpy barrage gates open.let us see if we get to have some pre g7 hints.

London NYAM 12:53 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 12:22 GMT April 12, 2007
what nonsense "subprime margin trading", do you stay up nights thinking up this stuff PAR?

PAR 12:18 GMT April 12, 2007
USA not only has subprime real estate loans but apparently also subprime margin stock trading .

fxq// I think PAR might have been referring to the latest report on CNBC that said US retail margin trading has increased to $350 billion record level last seen in 2000 market highs.

Isnt actually dollar positive though.

St. Annaland Bob 12:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
foe EUR to gain further, stronger JPY is a must ... logic?

madrid mm 12:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
fwiw - $1 billion rescue of subprime loans set
Neighborhood Assistance Corp. to link with two banks in mortgage-saving effortClick here

Lahore FM 12:51 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
234.xx looks increasingly likely.

Como Perrie 12:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sofia mik 12:40 GMT April 12, 2007

:)))

maybe that was a tranlastion error he meant avian flu risk remains

Como Perrie 12:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Zeus around, looks mildly on the go yours as from yesterday, needs confos however.

Sofia mik 12:40 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
COMO Piere
tricherat =dovish flu risk remain

Como Perrie 12:40 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
G7 starts tomorrow, ends sunday.

Some newswriters later will try to question things he will not answer as usual.

Como Perrie 12:36 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
now watch that tricherat 15 pips up and down onto nonsense wording...

Como Perrie 12:33 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Yeap Flip agree. so far 6.6 bios to feed and projected into over 8 bios in some 15 years would be devastating

PAR 12:31 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Weak dollar sent march import prices 1.7% higher .

Analista Fx 12:30 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
la fxt 12:14 GMT April 12, 2007

Allmost the global-view members make 180% per week!
Sorry! :D

GVI john 12:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
ECB Webcast
http://www.ecb.int/home/html/index.en.html

Dublin Flip 12:28 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Perrie You have higher birth rates in underveloped economies because like in everything they have less choices. They don't have medicare, welfare so the children are just increasing their odds of survival.
No politician actively promotes population growth through immigration when unemployment is high. It's not good for his political future. When there is full employment (like the US, Ireland, Australia, UK etc) you have population growth. In tougher times you have emmigration. It's only natural.

Budapest Z 12:25 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq ... that cracked me up

RIC fxq 12:22 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
what nonsense "subprime margin trading", do you stay up nights thinking up this stuff PAR?

PAR 12:18 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA not only has subprime real estate loans but apparently also subprime margin stock trading .

The Netherlands Purk 12:16 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:57 GMT April 12, 2007

I dont look at ration, i just look at daily ranges and try to find out where pair get exhausted and take pips from those who are tired of the direction...
Right now i look at the e/u when it gets exhausted. In apr. 2.5 hours we will see the high, or the low....
Cheers

la fxt 12:14 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   



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Como Perrie 12:11 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 12:08 GMT April 12, 2007

by thumb all those levels are similar to the various elliot waves possible developments, key high and tops etc.

Melbourne Qindex 12:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The market is now tackling the lower barrier of my weekly cycle at 1.1358 // 1.1384. The weekly cycle normal trading lower limit is defined at 1.1280. The next downside quantized level is located at 1.1315. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.1310.


Melbourne Qindex 08:48 GMT April 11, 2007
USD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1597. The odds are high that the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412 will be tackled. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.1400 and the market may test the extreme trading range of 1.1040 - 1.1226 if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412.

Como Perrie 12:06 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:49 GMT April 12, 2007

In a pure liberal global economy, welfare states couse factories and production to move elsewhere. Hence for those living long the previous two genration will pay the price, but this talking very long term sustanability of the messy Adam Smith with Keynes mixture of debts stamping to feed medicare and retirement.. Also is not true that in the developed world children do grow, rather the opposite.


now that tricherat is speaking so not trading at current.

PAR 12:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Again very violent day in Iraq despite the added US troops .

Gen dk 12:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Sofia mik 11:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
looking on w/ly chart , only euroyen no make deep correction last 2.5 yrs

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 11:50 //
yes I see - I post more in a thoretical fashion..
I mean I try to find scenarios that present trading opprtunities and then I try to find confirmation rules...

so this why when somebody posts some particular level I try to find out why this level? what is the rationale behind it..

PAR 11:56 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Would dare to buy some yen at 119.15 onstop .

The Netherlands Purk 11:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:13 GMT April 12, 2007

It depends, because GEPS also mentioned something of a correction in the usd, but if it stays above this 11430 for two days, than shorting is out.
For now i see 11350-11320 in the cards.

Dublin Flip 11:49 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
One the things I find frustrating is teh way thet statisticians and most economist just extrapolate out recent history to come up with their forecasts. One of these is evidence in the aged debate. Two things seem obvious to me. The relationship between economic and population growth works both ways. In developed economies the faster the economy you have more child birth and can allow more immigration. Ireland is case in point.

Secondly people living longer is a positive not a negative. Demograhpics are organic - economic evolves. People will work longer because they'll want to enjoy their longer lives. When I was a child the average ages 62 and 65, now it's 82 and 85 and there are some guesstimates that centurions will become the norm (and we already have someone who will live to 135).
In olden days you had and supported kids 25 to 45, work,save and consumed a further 15 years to 60 and lived another 10 years to 70.
Now you'll still have an support kids 25/45 work, save and consume a further 30 year to 75 and "pop your clogs" 15 years later at 90. People and the economy adapt to the conditions. That majority of people will choose to be working longer without having to support their kids is a positive.

I don't know where these egg-head economists live but my parents and the majority of their friends have worked well into their seventies. Maybe the "chicken little" economists would prefer to play bridge and garden for over 30 years of their lives-hahaha

JHB SRG 11:47 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 11:38 GMT April 12, 2007
ninja trading anyone ?

Been out for a while, where B them ninja's?

Sofia mik 11:45 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
3.75 unch

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:44 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner //
thx a lot for the snwer on HF - if you have a bit more time can you please look there again? TIA!

GVI john 11:43 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Canberra JD 11:41 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Ninja stars GOGO

Gen dk 11:39 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 11:38 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
ninja trading anyone ?

time to sharpen this mouse. keyboard,
make sure this adsl connection is on

are we all set ?
are we in for a wroouuuuuuummmmmmmmmm ? or a phewwwwwwwwwwww ?

lol

Como Perrie 11:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:24 GMT April 12, 2007

:) funny easy welfare living there ...interesting that in Israel have cutted down welfare sharply as of late...

still in the aged europe we need maybe a big avian flu epidemics to cut out welfare


regarding democracy in france, their referendum is clear NO

Canberra JD 11:27 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Disgusting range... Where is the break out.

Como Perrie 11:25 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
:) wow lotsa politcs when markets trading waters...so far the more the world gets populated the more the madness will grow globally...isn't it simple

Gen dk 11:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Dublin Flip 11:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
If france stepped out of Europe they'd become "persona non gratta"

Remember the vast majority of European Union budget goes on farming subsidies and the vast majority of them goes to French farmers. Could you imagine the French saying "Well we don't want to be in the European Union and we don't want all that money from it either? And while you are at it how about we have to compete into Europe without the benefits of European membership" Talk about cutting your nose off to spite your face.

To be honest I think that Europe without french socialist meddling would see Euro 1.60 bid - LOL

Ldn 11:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Top antiterrorism judge Baltasar Garzon believes Spain's north African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla are likely targets for attacks by al-Qaida militants, after recent attacks in Morocco and Algeria.

"We know that north Africa is, for the moment, the battlefield chosen by these new terrorists, and they will soon try to take a step further in their actions," Garzon told the Barcelona-based La Vanguardia daily in an interview published Thursday.

"Ceuta and Melilla. They are eyeing both sites," he said, adding that al-Qaida's repeated claim that it intends to recover "al-Andalus" - a reference to the vast area of Spain ruled by the Moors for 800 years until 1492 - is evidence that mainland Spain is also a target.

madrid mm 11:18 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Each asset bubble has features and sponsors unique unto itself. Some folks went wild over tulip bulbs in 17th century Holland while others flipped over not-as- yet-constructed Florida condominiums almost four centuries later.

Yet they both -- they all -- share one thing in common, and it has to do with human nature. Just as terminally ill patients go through five stages of dying as described by the late psychiatrist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross in her 1969 book, ``On Death and Dying,'' so, too, do bubble participants experience denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Click here

Dublin Flip 11:17 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
CABA just my opinion but I think SNB are reluctant to do anything as currently Swissy is viewed along with Yen by many as the liabilty side of the geared trade and therefore have ben the focus for any USD strength.

While I am sure they wish to avoid perennial Eur/Chf strength, a break down of Dollar Swissy below 1.20 would likely be the harbinger of significant dollar weakness across the board. A case of balancing up the risks.

PAR 11:13 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Iraqi blast may have been rocket attack .Sky news.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:13 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 10:52 //
hi man - nice 2 read you!
USDCAD - 360 DMA lies on 1.1430 now - did you have this in mind in your last post?
I mean if it gets back above it - it makes the short signal confirmation wasted?

Como Perrie 11:10 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 11:08 GMT April 12, 2007

Yeap a good time to see if France wants to step out of the Euro, as per previous referendum votes. Guess democracy in France is not really working as if am not wrong they said no to the euro.

Como Perrie 11:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
funny most newspapers still talking that the civil war will start once Bush moves troops elsewhere.... guess they miss the big picture completely..and so the average readers

Dublin Flip 11:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
there is an election in France soon, though...

yes mm there is the caveat on everything that comes out of Sarkozy's mouth (like his Euro comments) that it's for the benefit of domestic electoral consumption

Philadelphia Caba 11:07 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
...the pair has now moved 500- pips in 5-Weeks but 1.6500 is seen as the level where the SNB may draw the line...(ifr)
any comments on possible (??)SNB stepping in,pls? tia!

madrid mm 11:05 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- The al-Qaeda-linked group that killed 24 people in Algiers yesterday has members in Europe and is targeting France, said French presidential candidate and former Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.

``The principal menace to France comes from Algeria, from the GSPC network that has transformed into al-Qaeda,'' Sarkozy said today in an interview with radio station Europe 1, referring to the former Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat, now called al-Qaeda of the Islamic Maghreb. ``They have members in several European countries, including France.''

there is an election in France soon, though...

St. Annaland Bob 11:05 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
EURTRY longs I mean

Como Perrie 11:05 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Yeap ref UsdCad next days a failure to recover and say some below 1.13 do reckon we might go down again into 1.10 or so for the coming weeks/months ahead.... also a look at oil could help set the direction for usdcad

St. Annaland Bob 11:04 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Queen, for sure the TRY longs from 18295 agree with you

EU theEUROqueen 11:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Happy day Bob!

No one will stop the Euro now not even the terrorist ..keep long and add on each dip..

happy trdae

PAR 11:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
What about FRANCE 24 . Lol.

Como Perrie 11:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Dubai Tony 09:46 GMT April 12, 2007

UsdCad is in a downtrend as from early february and early march two descendant tops between 1.1870 and 1.1830

currently this is a a profit area for at least part of the long term possies established there. so far this does not necessarily mean the trend will revers, side or continue lower...

key resitances are placed now 11470/90 or so while this we dealing with at current looks some intermedium support.

most will deepand if this will be a USD day, if so later on in US usdcad might retrace at least some above the 11415/40 area imvho

have a good day ahead

Ldn 11:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Source: Blast At Restaurant Inside Convention Center -Sky TV

Dublin Flip 10:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Explosion at Iraqi Parliment inside the heavily fortified green zone - Sky

Sofia mik 10:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:50 GMT April 12, 2007
where you read about this terrorist attack

PAR 10:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Big explosion rocks Iraqi parliament building . BBC .

The Netherlands Purk 10:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
BTW, i dont think that loonie will be stopped by a correction in de usd. Loonie is a sell, and pattern tells us that we will see 11350 today.
Only 11430 will spoil that for the shorters....

CT Cris 10:51 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
====
sell at 19770 , sell another after data if rise at 19800 and another at 19835.
tp after an hour.

PAR 10:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Gold well supported by increased terrorist potential in Europe .

London Gooner 10:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:01 GMT April 12, 2007
-
Posted on Help forum.
In short - GBPJPY is a monthly golden cross so time to see the price getting back to the moving averages before. The crossover buy signal offers the levels for long term long positions.

Amsterdam Chic 10:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 10:41 GMT April 12, 2007
Hello Mr Cris
---------
Will that move be any bigger than yesterdays 30 pip revesal?

Thanks!

CT Cris 10:41 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
=======
will be clear to decline to lower level during after data.

The Netherlands Purk 10:40 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Well it is one of those days in the loonie. Trying to bottom out, but not succeeding. We have seen this before and GEP took the words out of my big mouth. 11320 break will give us lower than 113 and than loonie is doomed.
BUT, this healthy correction will first wipe out all longs and than continues to the 115 zone.
e/j: still going nicely to that 16030ishes.

Dallas GEP 10:33 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
BTW KAP, I beleive we had a high of 1.1480 a couple of days ago on USD/CAD so IF we get a print of 1.1320 that would be 160 pip drop which is in line with your theory more or less.

Dallas GEP 10:30 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
KAP. well I think usd/cad will bottom out somewhere around 1.1320. I don't think it will get much shorter than that because we are due for a 150-200 pip correction in the USD's favor IMO over the next 4-5 days IMO. So while I think oil prices will remain BID, USD should also become BID short term.

St. Annaland Bob 10:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 09:49 GMT April 12, 2007
thanks, dilemma is too strong word for trading but many thanks for the chart link.

Lahore FM 10:12 GMT April 12, 2007
thanks and you answered for sure.

Syd 10:28 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
)--Concrete topics for the Group of Seven financial chiefs' meeting this weekend haven't been formally decided yet, and will depend on what officials there say, Japan's top finance bureaucrat said Thursday.

"I don't think that what (the G7 officials) will discuss in the meeting has been formally announced yet," Vice Finance Minister Hideto Fujii said at a regular press conference, adding that "each debate will be up to the kind of comments made by each country" in the talks.
The G7 meeting will be held in Washington, D.C. on Friday.

Como Perrie 10:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
TP and flat on previous usdcad short from spike over upper figure.

Syd 10:23 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY: Exit Longs And Stand Aside - ABN

EUR/JPY has reached its projected target of 160.81 (160.87 traded high) and now is the time to exit longs and stand aside, says ABN Amro. The bank looks for the rate to decline toward the 160.00 trendline with a break targeting 159.06 and possibly 158.10. Now trades at 160.50. The bank says shorting the rate would be against the trend, while buying has an unfavorable risk/reward, so strategically neutral is the best bet at present.

London Misha 10:22 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner - the recent Golden Cross in GBPJPY may be turning into a bit if a Bow Tie form, usually (I recall) this is seen as a positive up move indicator but after about 5 - 10 days.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:16 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 10:09 //
hello - what do you think of this correlation I posted in 9:46?
USDCAD broke the low at 1.1485 in the recent consolidation and made 100 pips down thru the 200 DMA - it's a directional sign I suppose..
- last time it broke out of the consolidation and moved 150 pips from around 1.1700 to 1.1550... roughly..

Lahore FM 10:12 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 09:18 GMT April 12, 2007
Bob,the dma's mentioned do show similarities that you mentioned from 1998 and now.as far as the question of superannuation of different time frames and how to work them out with a set of dma's is concerned,is a matter of discretion for the individual trader.no fianl word can be passed on this.i am not very sure if i have answered your question.do let me know if it remains.also had a disconnection so could not reply earlier.

out for now.

PAR 10:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Some risk could return to the markets after the recent Al Qaida attacks .

Dallas GEP 10:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD is a very good SHORT if 1.1420 is seen. Lower levels look to be tested again. I think we will see 1.1350 during next 24 hours.

madrid mm 10:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 09:54 GMT April 12, 2007

yes indeed, but nobody is safe

Sofia mik 10:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
tomorrow is 13-friday

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner //
hello sir, I remember your call on the Golden Cross in GBPJPY a few months ago.
it's the cross of 5/ 25 / 50 / 100 DMAs - is this correct?
we had a it of discussion with AL - so for educational purpose - may I kindly ask for a bit of alaboration on the Golden Cross in the Help Forum? TIA

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 09:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
placing sell when show u 1.9759, pls

London Gooner 09:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 09:00 GMT April 12, 2007
After Marocco and Algiers next Al Qaida attack may be in Europe .
-
Spain may be at risk again. Don't think they have good control of terrorit population residing there.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 09:51 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hi traders.
gbp/usd have shown 1.9750.
for now must go down touch 1.9715 and be rejected from there for a while as the clear signal go to 1.9661.
againts 100% or follow 100% (not only a part of my view).

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:49 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 09:18 GMT April 12, 2007 || I see your dilemma Bob: tinyurl.com/2hppey

Dubai Tony 09:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone pls advice me the outlook for USD/CAD.TIA

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD - as this has been discussed recently:

- the USDX is falling - which I suppose is USD bearish
- Oil chart (Daily / 3 months) shows the price is bouncing off the 50 DMA - this is pretty good Support...

- USDCAD closed on Daily and opened below both the 200 and 360 DMAs - so this is Confirmation??

so given the prospects of USD weakness and Oil price surge - isn't a clear sign the CAD is going to strengthen further (USDCAD downtrend)???

PAR 09:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
European Trade union confideration says ECB should stop interfering in wage negotiations especially taking into account the salaries paid at ECB and to european burocrats .

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:38 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat //

very nice summary on Traders' psychology you posted!!

PAR 09:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Planning to sell Euro at 1.3430 on stop .

The Netherlands Purk 09:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 05:48 GMT April 12, 2007

Been drinking again? Good day St.y. Dont forget to take profit on the ez.
e/j is finding bottom here, but pattern not dead. Later.

St. Annaland Bob 09:18 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM

hi to you! ... charting questions to you, EURJPY current moving averages 100/144/200 are similar to 1998 on the daily and weekly charts, but the monthly chart is totally different story ... has this point any meaning? ... technically, is there any prediction method based on comparison of moving averages of two different time frames?

NYC beyond_destiny 09:17 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
usdyen may break 119.5

madrid mm 09:14 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
indeed PAR.... u never know

soon it will be time to prepare these limit buy and limit sell orders !!
8-)

Lahore FM 09:10 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
235.80 important as we make direction from here.

Sofia mik 09:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR GDP q/q (r) 0.9%

PAR 09:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
After Marocco and Algiers next Al Qaida attack may be in Europe .

madrid mm 08:57 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:54 GMT April 12, 2007
lol

i am brushing off my Mandarin and Cantonese ...might take some time though....

Sydney ACC 08:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:44 GMT April 12, 2007
MM how's our proposal going have you finished yet?

PAR 08:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Increased security around ECB out of fear for terrorist actions .

madrid mm 08:44 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 08:41 GMT April 12, 2007

maybe the exporters are doing carry trade as well lol

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:43 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
UK BCC survey manufacturing prices balance for Q1 down to +23 from +39 in Q4. Services prices balance also down to +30 from +36.

Sydney ACC 08:41 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 08:31 GMT April 12, 2007
There is a trend, both the trade and current account balances are worsening and sterling's current value is making it harder for UK manufacturing exporters, or at least what's left of them.

Como Perrie 08:34 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
to recap bob

If the G7 statements comes out to be NO CARRY TRADE CONCERN...forget to see 155/158 we go first into 165 or higher in coupla days next week. Else agree with you, but doubt there's anyone clearly knowing the outcome. So might Eurchf touch somewhere 1.6650 or so or drop some 1.61 1.59

PAR 08:31 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Uk trade deficit GBP 6.8 vs 6.4 exp. Bad but not bad enough to hurt GBP .

Como Perrie 08:28 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 08:20 GMT April 12, 2007

Yeap agree. If ones look very large must not forget that the swissie was overvalued for decades before the eu. They had even negative interest rate for francs deposits ..so maybe a long term adjustment is what we see. We will see so far later on this year this...

ref myself for the time being having jast coupla small things one large time frame and one very short one...gonna see later on as for now do not see anything very clearly, except maybe another touch down for the usdcad at least

Gen dk 08:27 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 08:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. house prices rose at a faster pace last month as the number of unsold properties on agents' books fell to the lowest in almost three years, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said.

St. Annaland Bob 08:22 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie,

it must read: 2006-2016 period and EU commercial real estate

St. Annaland Bob 08:20 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 08:13 GMT April 12, 2007

serious amount of loans per EU real estate taken with CHF ... based on the current rates difference EURCHF below 1.4000 makes that desicion wrong ... take 2006-1016 average interest rates difrentials and average exchange rate of EURCHF and it will be known if that decision come out good or not ... anyway, let's go to the pip trading spirit of the forum ;) (which is great) ... happy trades!

Como Perrie 08:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
you might be right Bob, so far I would not play heavy onto G7 unpredictable statements. am just doing my small things from time to time, maybe I turned out a hobby trader :)

Como Perrie 08:15 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
to add onto previous and a high degree of unpredictability onto commodities markets

St. Annaland Bob 08:14 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hi Perrie, no crash calls (yet!) ... but well calling +/- (15750) 158-161 (16150) as range before further developments ... the call is valid for the next five trading sessions, so it will not take too long to stone or to cheer ... happy trades!

PAR 08:14 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sarkozy will have a lot of work if he is to push for a weaker euro if elected French president . Ofcourse he can always ask some advice from Japan on how to weaken a currency while running huge current account surpluses .Lol.

Como Perrie 08:13 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
all in all my bottom thought for today is if monday we do not have sort of black monday carry stocks market collapse, I would think of this carry trade loading/unloading to persist yet for some time ahead.. if such the case would you be suprised to se f.ex. eurchf trading at say 1.8 eurjpy 170 etc.

Como Perrie 08:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
calling the unpredictable there bob...

as far as I see there might be still those helthy contractions and so you might be right there, but bottom line speaking I hardly see any crash to come of the carry bunch, even if anything might happen..

largerly talking this eurjpy has still room to go between 165 and 175 somewhere, even if one might think is crazy well I would say humans all do posses crazy traits somehow and behind computers there's still the carry trade greed up in big button rooms.

Or is global economy coming to an end with unprecedented unemployment from US to europe and asia to explode as growth will collapse to negative I guess

St. Annaland Bob 08:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
happy day! ... EURJPY set to go for test of 15780 within the next 5 trading sessions ... happy and safe trades!

Auckland peat 08:01 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Dubai 7:44 I have posted it in the help forum. (but he hasnt updated it for months)

Baltimore Zoltan 08:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 07:58 GMT April 12, 2007 :

Thanks!!!

PAR 07:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
On yen Trichet will refer to the previos G7 meeting when EURJPY was 150.00 which referred to the Previous G7 statement when the yen was 140.00 etc . Lol. G7 meetings after BRIC are irrelevant .

Como Perrie 07:59 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:48 GMT April 12, 2007

Yeap agree. This market and central banks have gone into a very religious managment and hardly deceptive dogmatic calls, nor meaningfull national stats into a global dreaming economy.

Spotforex NY 07:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
S. African central bank has the most 'unique' was of announcing rate decisions....CB chief talks for about an hour then says the decision...usually around the US equity open at 9:30am

Syd 07:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR Could Be At Risk From Trichet Comments

With the EUR reaching a new record high of Y160.87 as the market looks for ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to signal another early rate rise by using the word "vigilance" in his press conference later in the day, but the EUR could be disappointed, warns Citigroup. Not only is Trichet more likely to stick to the phrase "monitor very closely," but he could also comment on JPY weakness, JPY carry trades or EUR strength. "The disappointment from the rhetoric or mention of foreign exchange may pose a risk for the EUR," the bank says.

Baltimore Zoltan 07:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Can anyone please tell me what time the South African Reserve Bank's rate decision will be announced? Thanks very much!

PAR 07:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
As long as stock markets are rallying nobody cares about the carry trades. Central bankers are only afraid that an unwinding of carry trades could lead to a stock market crash or vice versa .

dubai 07:44 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hi,anyone knows oilman website address.(POST AT HELP FORUM)

Como Perrie 07:43 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
wow super jumper this eur swissie into 16450...

no big from me today at least at current levels and g7

bibi

Gen dk 07:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:33 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Swedish March UNDIX inflation a little lower than expected AT 1.2% Y/Y

Swedish March CPI below expecation at 1.9% y/y cons was 2.0%

Sydney ACC 07:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:29 GMT April 12, 2007
Ok you've got a deal - you write up the proposal I'll pay for the postage stamp, least I can do, great return on our investment when we succeed.

Sofia mik 07:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
mm, yes i dont know but import taxes up soon is next step from US&EU vs China

madrid mm 07:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 07:28 GMT April 12, 2007

i will share it with you !!8-) too much money can not be that good !!! lol

madrid mm 07:28 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
u never know Mik, u never know....

Mumbai NS 07:28 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
While all have been calling for a down euro and a down cbl it has been sharply rallying probably now when we are close to an important res lvl in cbl there is no one calling for a down on cbl rather the chimes are for 2.20 2.25 etc abt time to get ready for the thud! gl gt

Sydney ACC 07:28 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:22 GMT April 12, 2007
Interest for one day would set you up for life and you would be able to give up FX just top enjoy it.

madrid mm 07:27 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 07:24 GMT April 12, 2007

A gentleman like you , a pro should be emotionless lol
gl-gt

Sofia mik 07:27 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
MM, more trade sanctions ,it is easy

Lahore FM 07:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
although raden has me in a shiver for a while now.

Lahore FM 07:24 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
gbpusd now 1.9777 is looking good for 1.9900.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 07:23 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hi eur/usd wel done 1.3477.
ready go down now.

madrid mm 07:22 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Sofia 8-)

(XFN-ASIA) - China's foreign exchange reserves totaled 1.202 trln usd at the end of March, the central bank said in a statement on its website.
At the end of 2006, China's foreign exchange reserves were 1.0663 trln usd.
China's broad M2 measure of money supply was up 17.27 pct year-on-year at the end of March, while M1 was up 19.81 pct, the central bank said.
M0 was up 16.68 pct, the statement said.
It added that new yuan-denominated loans in March totaled 441.7 bln yuan, down 95.8 bln yuan from a year earlier.
(1 usd = 7.73 yuan)

what a dilemma . What to do with it ? 8-)

Sofia mik 07:10 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
mm, toyota vs wv 2:0

madrid mm 07:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
So this
-¥$£ suit,
-Scottish whiskey,
-Italian dress,
-Ribera del Duero red wine
just got a little bit pricey in Japan....But then again, when you usually buy these products, prices are irrelevant 8-)..

Now i just need to wait a little longer to get thess 5 LEXU$ lol

Sofia mik 07:00 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR, interesting no one coment eurojpy above 160lvl, may be THEY know something?

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 06:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
will touch 1.9750 soon as the first signal.
see u later traders.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 06:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hi traders.
gbp/usd high today was finished.1.9785.
be carefull

Lahore FM 06:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
PAR 06:42 GMT April 12, 2007
Par,think 120.00 will have to wait despite all the carry.it is just the general sentiment on usd in which usdjpy is going to partake.18.00 or lower first.gtgl.

Melbourne Qindex 06:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CHF (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is trying to tackle the extreme trading range of 1.6471 - 1.6565. The odds are in favor of buying on dips as long as the market is trading above the projected supporting level of 1.6377 - 1.6389. The monthly cycle normal trading upper limit is defined at 1.6424 and this would indicate that the market momentum is very strong as it can overcome the projected resistance at 1.6424. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 1.6454 which is the normal trading upper limit of my weekly cycle.

PAR 06:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Commodity carry trades are fuelling worlwide increased inflation fears ( except in Japan ). Base metals,precious metals, building materials , steel etc all sharply higher mostly due to fund buying financed by carry trades .

Lahore FM 06:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 02:47 GMT April 12, 2007
thanx Peat,closed some for partial gains.rest higher.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 06:23 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hi. 1.9769 have shown us. really danger that area 1.9769-1.9785.
lets go !!!

Syd 06:16 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD Gains Muted In Wake Of Jobs Data - ANZ

Gains for AUD/USD have so far been muted in response to underlying strength displayed in March employment data, ANZ Bank says. Pair hit 17-year high of 0.8274 after data vs 0.8245 pre-data but failed to advance further as market appears to be long and technical resistance is expected toward 0.8300; adds AUD/USD expected in 0.8210-0.8300 range with no major data tomorrow and economic calendar light until April consumer sentiment Wednesday

madrid mm 06:12 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow, FOMC voter, says risk of high inflation is greater than risk of growth falling too low. Policy adjustment and size of changes are data dependent and preference for core inflation is 1-2%. Sees Q1 GDP growth near or below 2.25% annual rate.

Fed Moskow says best guess is that inflation will drop slowly in 07-08, and year of subpar growth does not increase recession risks. Recent gasoline price rises mostly seasonal and margin related. "Oil shocks" always a risk to forecast.

Fed Moskow warns against rising protectionism sentiment in US. US budget deficit is running smaller than expected. There has been "some excesses" in the subprime mortgage markets. High job creation could point to stronger than expected economy.

Australia March Employment +10,500 (mkt exp 20,000), Full time jobs +31,700, Unemployment rate dips to 4.5

UK RICS house price balance in 3 months to March rose to +25.5, rising from February's +24.8, suggesting higher interest rates may have not cooled the market yet.

Senior IMF official says IMF forecast for another year of strong growth, with some risks is based on notion that US housing slowdown will bottom out and slowdown in US capital spending will be reversed.

IMF sees US growth improving through the course of the year. IMF official says outcome of imbalances talks depends on whether participants thought it to be useful. Does not expect "thunder clap" announcement to change imblances at the meeting. - Reuters.

Japan domestic CGPI for March +2.0%y/y, +0.3%m/m, versus market expectation of +1.9%y/y, +0.1%m/m.

Choppy markets today, as EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF make new highs since inception of EUR in 1999, and AUD hops to fresh 17 and half year high, and EUR 25-m highs, with USD, JPY, CHF sold across the board and USD losing the "post hawkish" Fed minutes gains.

Talks of large lots, stoploss related buying in EUR/JPY, triggering stoploss/ options at 160.50 to 160.85, overcoming yesterday all time high of 160.43 and with more interest still to buy on dips. Though market players are concerned about any FX warning from Europe, and with ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet speaking at 1230GMT after ECB decision at 1145GMT where ECB is seen leaving rates unch 3.75%.

EUR/USD jumped to fresh 25-mth highs 1.3468, high since March 2005 highs of 1.3478, with talks of good buying from US funds, Asian, Asian CBs/ Sing accounts after 1.3460 options tripped despite good options related selling from large Swiss, US investment houses trying to capp it at 1.3450-60. EUR/USD boosted by EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF buying.

EUR/CHF finally breached the key 1.64 handle finally to highs of 1.6432, then 1.6453 as 1.6452 breached too, to all time highs since EUR, or highest since Pre-Euro high of 1.6462 in August 98. Market players will be cautious of any large Swiss offers, possibly SNB?

AUD dipped earlier on US investment sales on some questions over whether Rinker+Cemex M+A can go through. It then dipped to 0.8233 on initial headline jobs number of only 10,500, before rallying to hit fresh 17yr+ highs of 0.8273 on strong full time jobs. G

BP supported by firm UK RICS. EUR eye ECB Trichet "vigilant" at 1230GMT.

Nikkei -163pts or 0.93% at 17,506.73. JGBs lower, despite strong 5-yr auction demand.10-yr yield +0.020% at 1.660%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.23/119.52, EUR/USD 1.3430/1.3473, GBP/USD 1.9724/1.9767, USD/CHF 1.2192/1.2244, AUD/USD 0.8233/0.8273, NZD/USD 0.7253/0.7289.

Sofia mik 06:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
ECB under pressure from French leading candidate

madrid mm 06:09 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
will the Ottawa Senators make it to the final ?

madrid mm 06:07 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

so we have 3 english clubs in the champion s league and the nhl play off are up n running 8-)

USA Zeus 05:53 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 05:48 GMT April 12, 2007

LOL- Right! Wish that parasite would depart from referencing Zeus in his posts to others or himself.

USA BAY 05:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Until I see 719x area in kiwi, till then it could be bogus move down. lol

Sydney ACC 05:49 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi is having another down day, that's two days in a row. Except for last Friday and Monday when Monday's decline was a negligble 3 points this is the first two-day decline since late February/early March when over four days Kiwi dropped 350 points.

moscow mike 05:48 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 05:32 GMT April 12, 2007
Dark forces will fall and brothers arise.

The Netherlands Purk 05:47 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
e/j: no change in pattern feel indicator stuff. But we can expect some kind of retrace into the 16030. 16120 will spoil that for shorters. It seems simple but shorters only want to short near tops.... hehehehehe

USA Zeus 05:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
11:23 GMT April 10, 2007
gbp.usd
=======
19800 is coming.
11:31 GMT April 10, 2007
”…what if gbp stalls at 1.9799?....:D”
=====
then Zues will be very angry..and shout..what a bad call.
12:15 GMT April 10, 2007
gbp.usd
=======
exited buy postion as trend will change.
____________________________________________________
ROTFL...”What a bad call.” Shouldn'y have flip-flopped as the trend never changed.

Syd 05:29 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Jobs No Cause For Rate Fears - CommSec
No cause for concern about interest rate rise in Australia as result of jobs increase in March, says CommSec economist Craig James. Increased labor supply, whether it comes from immigration or domestically, will keep wage growth contained; means RBA will remain alert to wage pressures, but is currently no evidence of wages spiraling out of control, he adds. Market pricing in 62% chance of rate hike at RBA's May meeting, up from 57% before jobs data as economy added 10,500 new jobs in March, jobless rate fell to 4.5%

Mumbai NS 05:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Zorro if by chance u are there rite now first of all kudos to ur gr8 euryen call target met second what now from here sir if u culd type ur much awaited one liner gl gt

GENEVA DS 04:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
CHF continue to underperform the world currency, only JPY is weaker. Market continues to disbelief that the trends are going much further, i.e. EURCHF 17000, GBPCHF 26000, EURJPY 17500 , GBPJPY 26500... all that can happen over course of next 3 to month before BIG TIME reversal will take this currencies to normal levels again... USD just seems to be sidelined.... unfortunately... good luck , nice day, Geneva 26 degres... like in summer for today... i.e. APRIL 12... as well another anomalie.... warmer than in south of Spain...

USA BAY 04:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Syd and Usa Zeus. Good trades to you both.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:42 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
I like share opini via chat.
call me yahoo messenger : [email protected]

USA Zeus 04:31 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:06 GMT April 12, 2007
Sofia mik 04:02 GMT April 12, 2007

milk & BAY- Certainly that seems like the consensus. However there may be room for existing positions to run against the buck.
Thus, at this point, IMVHO, fresh positions on dailies may be best served after a pullback (in the USD direction) to either add USD shorts if the trend is still intact or, if broken- buy USD on dips. Best of trades to you both!

hk ab 04:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
it's now not just the eur/jpy matter but also eur/chf and gbp/chf....gl.

Hong Kong JS 04:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Thank you, Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas .

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:18 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
txtx 04:13 GMT April 12, 2007
from now still will show 1.9769 or 1.9785 and then drop till 1.9682-1.9661.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:15 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd
its very clear bullish pattern for eur/usd about top tgt 1.3477-1.3488. that range is very danger for someone who hold their buy position.
will show us the dramatic selling action from that range.
againts 100% or follow 100%.
if only part better wait and see.

txtx 04:13 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
raden .. whats your new target for gbp/usd?
is it the same as before? 9685?

hk ab 04:13 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
final effort to induce CB's action on carry trade. If they don't act, e/j should be in the region of 180 end of year.

Syd 04:13 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 04:06 GMT yes I think it will also, but will take a little time for the market to get into that thinking, as you say everything is mega stretched .

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:11 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
after broken of 160.39 eur/j give new high tgt 162.20-162.75 as the strong resistant. but 159.85 still can be hoped to show us as start level for 162.20.
because of that eur/usd still difficult to go down although good news for usd.

Canberra JD 04:10 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
I'm looking to reload on g/u and a/u today. A fresh short signal would do the trick... Also watching for a carry trade unwind in the coming days/week

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
sorry wrong typo
"as natural law seem gbp/usd will down again after show u 1.9769 or 1.9785 (bid)."

USA BAY 04:06 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

I certainly hope dollar reverses and the dollar bulls start making some pips. kiwi and ozi are both highly overvalued against the dollar.

Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 04:06 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
hello traders.
first natural law scenario about 1.9723 was well done. and thats normally from there given rejection.
dont forget about 1.9682-1.9661 as srong support tgt.
as natural law seem gbp/usd will down again after show u 1.9769 or 1.9685 (bid).
lets see.
againts 100% or follow 100%, dont againts and follow only part of my view.

Sofia mik 04:02 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Zeus kiwi show the way,may be

USA Zeus 03:52 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 03:51 GMT April 12, 2007
"reversal" = "reaction"

USA Zeus 03:51 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Looking at daily charts of some of the majors (EUR/USD, USD/CAD, AUD/USD etc) it would appear that the USD weakness is entering into the late stages before a reversal. IMVHO Trading this timeframe- fresh USD shorts are becoming exponentially more risky.

USA Zeus 03:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 02:30 GMT April 12, 2007

Clarification. When USA Zeus 07:20 GMT April 11, 2007 was posted to slice out of longs GBP/USD was at 1.9810

GA GC 03:31 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Oilman, May I have your view now if you have time. I just copy and paste your great post that posted in your website in January. gl & gt!

New positions.
Posted by oilman on January 11th, 2007
Long AUD$ 7768

Long E$ 1.2938

Short $CHF 1.2470

Long GBP$ 1.9335

Short GBPCHF 2.4090

Long NZD$ 0.6870.

All good for lots of pips …Watching if E$ doesn’t break 1.2930 should be fine.


Hong Kong JS 03:31 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
What is Eur/Yen's resistance now? Thanks.

Sydney ACC 03:28 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Canberra id1 01:43 GMT April 12, 2007
I think you will find the drop in the unemployment rate is a statistical quirk. The rate fell by 0.1% but so also did the participation rate, it declined from 64.9% to 64.8%. What you have then is a higher number of people employed (10,500) and a smaller proportion of the population looking for work.
We need to ask ourselves how does the Burueau measure either figure to determine the accuracy of the data. In the US the two figures are produced by different departments that is why occasionally the results contradict each other.

Syd 02:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago acknowledged Wednesday there have been "excesses" in mortgage lending that created dramatic financial losses by firms that handed out risky loans.

However, Chicago Fed president Michael Moskow said it's unlikely the so-called subprime mortgage crisis will spill over and create weakness in the overall economy.

During a question-and-answer session following a speech in this Chicago suburb, Moskow said it's easy to do "Monday morning quarterbacking" about Fed policies that may have contributed or encouraged lenders to offer mortgages to credit-challenged home buyers.

Moskow said the increased home ownership that resulted from flexible loans "far outweighs the cost" of the losses, which impact a "relatively small group of people."

Moskow noted that there are no problems with the fixed rate mortgage market.

Moskow, a voting member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, will retire Aug. 31 after more than 12 years leading the Chicago Fed.

In his speech, Moskow said that the risk of high inflation continues to outweigh the risk of economic growth being too low. He noted that the decision on whether monetary policy needs to be adjusted will be determined by upcoming economic data.

Auckland peat 02:47 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM (and GEP)
going well atm for your long Eur/GBP calls.

Sofia mik 02:46 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
may be it is a time some euro politician to coment eurjpy today

ABHA FXS 02:34 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
short eurusd 1.3456 for 1.3353
long usdchf 1.2211 for 1.2330
short gbpchf 2.4110 for 2.3959

USA Zeus 02:30 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
07:21 GMT April 11, 2007
Sample of Zues calls for today ,
gbp in directional ,it is negatively up and may be after FOMC
change to positively down...you can say anti clock direction.
____________________________________________________
ROTFL! Must have confused that with "I will buy GBP.USD b4 data for a big up move...It will either go up or down...If it goes down I will then let you know that is what happened"


This is what I wrote after the "buy on dip" signal at 1.9810-

USA Zeus 07:20 GMT April 11, 2007
Perhaps not best to buy on pullbacks unless a signal is given. For now slicing out of longs is preferred.

Get your facts straight LOL

Ldn 02:05 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Moskow Doesn't See Subprime Weakness Hurting Economy

Philadelphia Caba 01:55 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Geneva DC 01:50 GMT
unusual time...

Geneva DC 01:50 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
re EURCHFpop / Canberra
Rumor Nestle buying some big US firm caused pop

Syd 01:47 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Canberra id1 01:43 GMT From what I have been led to believe from the analyst out there , not something you can bet your house

Canberra id1 01:43 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:32 GMT April 12, 2007
"Australia's unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 4.5% in March from 4.6% in February. The number of employed rose 10,500, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday. . . .
. . .
Economists on average had expected an unemployment rate of 4.6% in March, with the number of employed up 15,000."

How are the numerics made consistent with the percentages? Down by 0.1% but predicted number higher? Or are these from two different guessing groups?censored
Syd 01:31 GMT April 12, 2007
Australian Mar Employment +10,500; Consensus +15,000

Syd 01:32 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Australian Mar Unemployment Rate 4.5%
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australia's unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 4.5% in March from 4.6% in February. The number of employed rose 10,500, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

Economists on average had expected an unemployment rate of 4.6% in March, with the number of employed up 15,000.


Syd 01:31 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Australian Mar Employment +10,500; Consensus +15,000

Philadelphia Caba 01:08 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
unusual eur/chf run in asia hours...

Philadelphia Caba 00:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
something is wrong with eur/chf ... smelling fishy...1.6000...1.5800 ??

USA Zeus 00:58 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Well- The lucky hot zone global counter-contra pullback worked enough to slice of some USD/CAD slabs at 1.1410.
Now can buy more at much lower prices if the good FX shepherd so desires. Also can set new stop loss level lower- much lower if needed.

Syd 00:54 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Fed's Moskow: Inflation Risk Greater Than Low-Growth Risk
Risk That Inflation Could Stay Stubbornly High
Inflation Expectations Appear To Be Contained
Inflation Pressures Likely To Moderate Over Time
2007 Econ Growth Likely Modestly Below Potential
Econ Growth To Return To Near Potential By 2008
Recent Subprime Woes May Prolong Housing Mkt Decline
Mortgage Woes Seem Confined To Small Segment Of Mkt
Fed Tracking Carefully Subprime Mkt Developments
Residential Construction To Stabilize In 2007
Consumer Spending Has Held Up Despite Housing Woes
Weakness In Housing, Auto Have Hindered Cap Spending
Expect Capital Spending Weakness To Be Short Lived
Optimistic About Longer-Run Prospects For US Econ
Inflation Risk Greater Than Low-Growth

Dallas GEP 00:37 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Eur/gbp in a mID-RANGE PIVOT spot currently. Shorts could be tried from 6815/20 and longs from 6780/85

USA BAY 00:22 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
RIC FXQ,

Yes cad/jpy seems to be a mover and may target 106 soon but I think we may see a sell of in the jpy pair prior to G7 though nothing much comes out of that meeting.

USA BAY 00:20 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
WELLINGTON AM,

LOL, I guess so, usd/chf I did expect it to go to 1.2285 after 1.2215, but eur/chf no clue.

RIC fxq 00:19 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:03 GMT

New "carry trade" favorite? CADJPY also had a solid runup prior to the CHF tank.

wellington am 00:10 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:03 GMT April 12, 2007

blow off top?

Dallas GEP 00:03 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Actually IN at 1.6420 now on eur/chf shorts...1.6400 order was modified prior to Asia open...

USA BAY 00:03 GMT April 12, 2007 Reply   
Why the sudden spike in eur/chf and usd/chf??

 




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