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Forex Forum Archive for 04/15/2007

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BUD Petr 23:55 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
interestingly you see most of the early gains on short JPY (almost) corrected by now. USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY all are close to their openings 2night

BUD Petr 23:53 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
one more from bloomberg on G7 & JPY:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aOSizBkRg8XM&refer=home

Japan escaped censure as the G-7 papered over differences on the slump in the yen. The statement omitted specific mention of the yen while saying currencies should reflect economic fundamentals and Japan's recovery should be ``recognized by market participants.''

Syd 23:51 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
NY RP 23:44 GMT I dont think the BOJ or the G7 endorse a devalued Yen , this will end in tears for the poor suckers that are buying the top of mulit year highs - the move this morning in Asia would be normal with many of the big players trying to trigger the move

FM like your take on the situation would be greatly appreciated by all here

BUD Petr 23:50 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
no, not a single word of JPY in the G7 press release. below is what I've read on AFX. briefly, they're hoping for BOJ to raise eventually so the flows will reverse...

*********
YEN, JAPANESE ECONOMY, BANK OF JAPAN MONETARY POLICY
-G7 finance ministers and central bank governors made no reference to the weakness of the yen in the communique issued at the end of their meeting here.

-Though the yen wasn't mentioned directly, the G7 once again indicated that the improvements in the Japanese economy will be taken on board by financial markets.

-Japan's recovery, they said, is 'on track and expected to continue'.

NY RP 23:44 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:33 GMT April 15, 2007
Question: Did you see something in the G-7 communique that stated Yen weakaness is ok, or is it something that wasnt said that gives you the edge of continued Yen weakness? Looking for perspetives. My take is neutral and that the G-7 made its mark (warning) in Essen and now is following up with Japan recovery on track and upwards and currency should reflect. ????Thanks.

Lahore FM 23:33 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
today can be a sad day for carry,at least jpy carry.still a bit early to say if upside jpy cross fever can continue.today's highs thus far on usdjpy and eurjpy may stick.

Syd 23:33 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Curbing Enthusiasm For Carry
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Yen carry trades have been given a further lease of life from the weekend Group of Seven finance ministers' meeting, but how much further does this hugely popular trade have to run?

The euro/yen has reacted with unsurprising pep to the weekend's events, racing to a record high of Y162.43 in early Asia and taking other yen crosses with it, with the Aussie/yen cross edging ever-closer to the Y100 mark.

That is because the G7 showed less concern about the yen-funded carry trade than it did in February, while eurozone officials were busy saying they don't have an issue with the currently strong euro. A number of them referred to it "not" being a "problem."

It is a remarkable turnaround from a few months back, when European politicians were squawking madly about the euro level - when it was well below where it is now. Pragmatism is much more in evidence, and some officials seem to be swinging the other way and even sounding a bit happy with euro gains.

The market is taking that as a green light for the carry trade. But given the gains in yen-crosses in the past few months, some near-term correction is likely.

Euro long positions are looking very stretched, and a lot of the goodwill on the eurozone economy and rates may be built in already. The euro-yen has risen from around Y156.80 in mid-February to near Y162.40 now.

At the same time, the pound has risen against the yen from around Y232.70 in mid-February to around Y237.70 now, and the Australian dollar has gained from Y93.90 to near Y99.91 now.

Lofty levels aren't necessarily to be feared, and yield advantage will continue to underpin these crosses, but some of the exuberance is probably due to be tempered with a short-term dose of reality.

A quick bout of risk aversion could do the trick, and may come if political uncertainty stays high in oil-rich Nigeria in the run-up to Presidential polls on April 21; state elections there on the weekend, which aimed to boost civilian rule and stability, were marred by sporadic violence.


hk ab 23:17 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
zeus, how would you like to rebuild your dlrcad longs postional trade? I see downside easier than upside now from chart.
a/j 100 memorable right?

hk ab 23:05 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
mkt is sending clear message: strong theme of carry, and I don't see why it will turn in a 180 angle this week.

Usually, if CBs do mind (which I doubt), then we should hear verbal warning first. Probably they don't feel the pain.

e/j 165, g/j 250 in cards?

me think some implications will be gold/yen and cad/jpy.

a/j 100 is very very close now.

GL and Gt.

NY RP 22:50 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Just an observation. Yen is weaker and justifiably so. Euro is up and justifyably so.
Yen is forming a major head and shoulders formation on the weekly. Have a look. Yen seems to be pattern oriented currency. Over the years Yen seems to be quite visible when it comes to head and shoulders formations. Nothing is guaranteed, but it is worth a look. Right shoulder is 1.1970 to 120.00 area.
The target is 109.00 to 110.00.
Question: Do you go with fundamentals or technicals? Answer whatever makes you money.

Nigeria Basorun 22:49 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
it's all over i think it's a problem with there server or doin maintainnance

van 22:47 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Thanks all for your view on eur/jpy I got in due to your views and now raking it in..

CT PT 22:21 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Last but not the least:
U/Y: 121
Chf/Y: 100

CT PT 22:20 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
These are the short -medium term targets of all JPY crosses:
G/Y: 241
E/Y: 165
A/Y: 101
N/Y: 90
C/Y: 106

Enjoy the ride & collect the interests!!!

GL/GT

fairfield JC 22:09 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Thank you for the information Sophia and Netherlands.

Does anyone know why Forexfatory requires a password to get in? Or is that just from my computer? It was not like this last night...

Altria Group Inc 21:54 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
anyone know .. will earings be up or down for MO ?

London NYAM 21:53 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Van 162.10 for this week. if that doesnt hold 162.92 Aug 98 high.

CT PT 21:53 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
E/Y will move upto 165 atleast....just the see the magic of carry trade after the official approval !!!
God Bless G7!!!

van 21:23 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
any guess how high eur/jpy may go?

Auckland peat 20:49 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
E/Y 161.75/85 from censored

Alaska Moon 20:49 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 20:39 GMT April 15, 2007
=====
Scroll on the left and add the rate ticker on your screen...
Moon

fairfield JC 20:39 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Thanks for the info everyone. What is the E/Y trading at right now? what was the close on Firday? My charts are down unfortuanately. Thank you in advance.

St. Annaland Bob 20:36 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   

World Trade Organization: China overtakes United States in exports

global trade seems to be leveraged more than 50:1 rate in the forex markets, bubble time?

the coming trading week will be at listening port position for me.

Ldn 20:34 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:56 GMT Currency speculators boosted their net short U.S. dollar position and long euro trades in the week to April 10, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Boosted short U.S. dollar position further since 10 April

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:08 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 19:13 //
wow - the platform opened with a EURJPYspike of 50 pips...

most probably the market will overshoot to excess - before a violent reversal happens..

just read the COT from Yahoo link - l
tome the weakest hands are in NZDUSD - roughly 21 k long - 1k short --> net 20 k long... semms everybody bought there - but then how will sell?
EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD all seem like very directional bets agains USD..

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:56 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
fairfield //
pls look 2 posting below: Ldn 17:52 GMT

fairfield JC 19:51 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Anybody know what COT is for this week on the majors?

The Netherlands Purk 19:13 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Well the whole scenario in e/j can go into the dustbin. I saw a huge gap into the 16220. That gap thing is always time to stay out for a Purk... dont know what happened and dont give a d.. so i will monitor it and look for the next borders...
Purk is going to sleep.

Mtl JP 17:56 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 17:52 GMT / amazing...multi-gigahertz computers on fiber-optic networks and they publish data from April 10th, shown on Friday.

Ldn 17:52 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
IMM specs boost net short US dollar position-CFTC
NEW YORK, April 13 (Reuters) - Currency speculators boosted their net short U.S. dollar position and long euro trades in the week to April 10, data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed on Friday.

Speculators in currency futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange also pared their long positions on sterling, according to the CFTC data.

The total net short dollar position in the latest week was around $19.0 billion, up from a net short of $16.8 billion the previous week, according to Reuters calculations.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20070413:MTFH80840_2007-04-13_19-56-41_N13570963&type=comktNews&rpc=44

Halifax CB 17:45 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
CS - re the political discussion - I put a loosely cobbled together note of my "thoughts" (haha, it is Sunday, after all, so don't expect much) over on the PF.

Re forex, I thinkk in general you are right, but one thing to keep in mind that as the $ weakens it's important to keep an eye on the rate of weakening, since if it goes too fast then it causes disruptions in local economies. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see changes (in either direction) that move to exponential over a two week period or so from approx linear to be hit by counter moves.

Rye,NY et 17:45 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 01:47 GMT April 15, 2007
Top Honors for 2006

What is the source?
TIA...Have a good trading week...

AZUSA 4x-ed 17:11 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Pravda - The dollar rate continues to decline in Russia. The US currency set another low on Friday, when it hit the lowest level during the last eight months. On Monday President Putin said at a meeting with the Cabinet of Ministers that he was concerned with the ongoing strengthening of the Russian ruble. The president urged the government to pay attention to the phenomenon not to ruin positive tendencies in the Russian industry. Putin’s recommendations may push the Central Bank of Russia to support the dollar and bring it back to the level of 26 rubles per one American dollar. At present moment the dollar costs 25 rubles 75 kopeks.

It was not the first time when head of state pays the government’s attention to the growing ruble rate. A year ago Putin ordered the ministers and the Central Bank to strictly observe the competitive ability of Russian producers. Nevertheless, the ruble has become more expensive according to the results of the previous year and gained 17 percent as opposed to the US dollar (5.8 percent vs. the euro). The real cost of the Russian ruble has increased by over 20 percent during the recent two years, experts say. The strengthening of the Russian currency has led to negative results for national processing industries. The situation improved in 2007, but the president still receives numerous petitions from Russian entrepreneurs who complain of the speedy growth of the Russian ruble. It is worthy of note that Putin’s above-mentioned remarks may lead to the resignation of the chairman of the Central Bank.

On the other hand, the Central Bank of Russia may take more decisive measures against the background of Putin’s concerns and take the control of the US dollars in its hands. In this case the Bank will have to buy considerable amounts of the US currency on the market. It is difficult to say how long this mechanism will work. In the long run, the Central Bank may initiate another collapse of the Russian national currency to save the Russian economy. Some experts say that this may happen already in 2009, when the debt of the Russian companies reaches the critical level. This debt currently totals over 160 billion dollars. If it continues to grow, many large Russian companies may fail to execute their obligations (they continue to borrow more and more funds to expand their capacities).

As for the current rate of the US dollar against the euro, it made up the level of 1.35 – the lowest during the recent two years. “The dollar has fallen under the influence of sales on the Asian markets on Tuesday and weakened its positions against the majority of basic competitors,” an expert said.

USA’s recent address to the World Trade Organization has also affected the global position of the American currency. Washington officials have repeatedly expressed their concerns over the pirate market of China. It is an open secret that China has severe copyright problems in the field of intellectual property. The USA is deeply concerned with the reduction of the competitive ability of US products. Analysts say that the USA will most likely have to reduce the interest rate in the nearest future to boost the national economy. However, it will also strike a serious blow on the US dollar. A similar phenomenon may take place in Russia. The government may force the Russian ruble to drop to push the economy further.

FW CS 17:00 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:51 GMT April 15, 2007
Alright if you truly are interested I can take it to the Political Forum but and I was not calling you ignorant. Look out in the futures in the Polit Forum for my posts will have to dig up the documentary I have on it. How about we get back to forex??

$ bear beginning to look like a wall of worry or is it a river of hope in this case. Not much press coverage on the $ bear so it may have some more room to run It appears US still wants a weaker $ and not many complaints from the other G7 countries on the $.

RIC fxq 16:51 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 16:43 GMT please post the source of you "intelligence" on the POLITICAL forum where it belongs, thank you.

And be careful of calling any one ignorant when making outrageous claims such as you have. Thank you again.

FW CS 16:43 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:00 GMT April 15, 2007
Educate yourself there is plenty of evidence out there just go look or stay blissfully ignorant ur choice

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:32 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Could someone with access to a Russian news service/paper confirm the outcome of last week's "business" meeting between the Russian and Iranian officials? TIA

Philadelphia Caba 16:21 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
=DJ FOREX VIEW:G7 Statement Provides No Relief For Yen, Dollar

By Laurence Norman and Isabelle Lindenmayer
OF DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The decision by the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations to make no changes to their views on currency issues leaves foreign exchange markets braced for more of the same in the coming week: euro strength, U.S. dollar declines and continued so-called carry trade bets that weaken the yen.

With a host of U.S. data due in the coming week, this opens the way for the euro to hit a new record high against the yen and for the single currency to test its 2004 high versus the dollar.

At Friday's spring meeting in Washington, the G7 repeated precisely what finance ministers had said about exchange rates in Essen, Germany, two months ago.

They again said currencies should "reflect economic fundamentals," described disorderly market movements as "undesirable" and called for countries with "large and growing current account surpluses, especially China" to allow movement in their real effective exchange rate.

Ministers made no explicit comment on yen weakness or carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies, like the yen or the Swiss franc, to buy higher yielding assets.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Japanese officials had commented that economic fundamentals were improving and that "this should be reflected in the foreign exchange market." Japanese Finance Minister Koji Omi had a different emphasis, saying, "I don't think there was anyone (among G7 officials) who specifically highlighted the yen and said it had problems."

Meanwhile, Bank of Canada Governor David Dodge said that G7 "views on the yen are exactly where they were the last time we met, that one should be very careful about placing one-way bets."

During the weekend's International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the IMF said it is continuing work on updating the organization's foreign exchange surveillance role.

On Saturday afternoon, the IMF said China reiterated its pledge to take steps to increase currency flexibility, albeit in a "gradual and controllable manner."


No Surprise For Markets

Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Conn., said currency traders won't be "desperately surprised" by the lack of mention of the yen or the carry trade in the G7 statement. He said the yen had come under pressure in recent days partly on expectations there would be no change in the G7 language.

Ruskin said that comments on the carry trade by senior G7 officials at the end of February's meeting stirred "up a little bit of volatility but (they) generated nothing in terms of sustainable yen gains ... So I think there was a perceived green light in favor for the carry trade going into the meeting. Now, the light stays green," he said.

Ruskin said that should leave the euro in line to test key resistance levels against the yen, around Y162 or Y163. The euro Friday hit a record against the yen at Y161.46.

When markets open Monday, the euro could suffer some light profit-taking at first but "before the day's out, the yen should be weaker," Ruskin said.

Michael Woolfolk, chief currency strategist at the Bank of New York, agreed that for currency markets, the most significant news to come out of the G7 was "not what was said, but what was not said" about the yen and carry trades.

He said the group's communique also offered good news for emerging-market currencies, which have been bolstered by the carry trade but also benefit from strong global growth and high commodity prices.

"One of the things that we can take away from this communique is the broad-based agreement on the health of the global economy. G7 finance ministers believe the world economy is headed for a soft landing," Woolfolk said. He said it was also a positive sign that the communique had made no explicit reference to the recent equity markets volatility.

With the most senior Chinese officials staying away from the G7 meeting, there were no developments in the other international issue weighing on currency markets and the dollar in particular - the recent trade spats between China and the U.S.

Friday afternoon in New York, the euro stood at $1.3516 from $1.3489 late Thursday, while the dollar was changing hands at Y119.26 versus Y119.05, according to EBS. The euro traded at Y161.18 versus Y160.59 late Thursday.


Nearing An All-Time High

With the euro last week climbing to almost one cent shy of its all-time high against the dollar thanks to signals from the European Central Bank that it plans to raise rates in June and perhaps again after that, the single currency is very much ascendant, analysts said.

"Euro-dollar has breached resistance at the $1.3480 highs," Robert Lynch, currency strategist at HSBC, said Friday. "It would not take much for (the record level) to be reached," Lynch said. The euro's high against the U.S. currency is $1.3670, which it hit in December 2004.

Greg Anderson, currency strategist at ABN Amro in Chicago, said there are still a significant number of dollar bears who haven't wholeheartedly entered the market yet, underlying the scope for dollar declines.

"There is plenty of macro discretionary money that has yet to buy euro-dollar," he said.

The pressured dollar enters the new week facing a slew of U.S. data. The market will digest a March retail sales report, an April manufacturing report from the New York region, and a February report on net foreign purchases of U.S. securities. It will also face fresh comments Monday from a host of central bank speakers, including the ECB's Trichet and three U.S. Federal Reserve speakers.

The one release of the week that could reverse or at least temper the dollar's decline is Tuesday's consumer price index data.

Should March core prices - those excluding food and energy - remain even with the previous month's year-over-year advance of 2.7%, or even increase, that could "temporarily reverse the dollar's weakness," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets. censored

RIC fxq 16:00 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
"ample proof! rotflol

FW CS 14:58 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:58 GMT April 15, 2007
There is ample evidence straight from the horse's mouth (those in US power positions) to support this claim but this is a forex forum so I will not clog up space here with that.

With G7 saying nothing new the trends look set to continue this week. Buying $ at this time is not wise. Maybe when and if Euro gets to 1.3660 this week may be a good time to try a shot at long $

RIC fxq 13:58 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 12:42 GMT

horsebucky, in that regard the US is no more Marxist than the EU, Japan or any other of the major economies in the world.

The Netherlands Purk 12:51 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Well very nice weather here in Clogland. Sitting in the sun doing some calcu's on the bugger.
Only one day ahead with it these days.
Might get a slow Monday, if not i see 16070-90 as low and 16160-80 as high, so there are pips to be earned.
So break of those lows or high will change this. We entered new area and am watching and watching and watching, and waiting to take a short for a nice correction. Just play the range and the possibility for every new zone to long or short.
Have a nice Sunday ahead!

FW CS 12:42 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 10:57 GMT April 15, 2007
Not to get too political on this forum but the US is well on its way to Marxism. The government is the largest employer and land owner in this country and there is a mentality starting to develop here in the US where people want everything handed to them - "let the government do it" the welfare state mentality. In a Marxist state the state is supreme and controls everything, right?

GVI Jay 12:25 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
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UK's Brown seeks to quell gold sales controversy
WASHINGTON (Thomson Financial) - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown sought to quell a growing controversy surrounding his decision around a decade ago to sell a large chunk of the country's gold reserves.

At a press briefing here in his capacity as chairman of the International Monetary Fund's financial committee, Brown said his decision in 1999 was accepted as a reasonable diversification of assets by Eddie George, the then governor of the Bank of England, among others.

Brown, who is widely seen as a shoo-in to become Prime Minister when Tony Blair quits some time this summer, reportedly, according to the Sunday Times newspaper, ignored advice about the sale of the gold reserves.

Between 1999 and 2002, the UK offloaded around 60 pct of its gold reserves, with the proceeds redistributed into other assets, such as dollars and euros.

The move has since come under fire as the gold price was trading near 20-year lows at the time at below 300 usd an ounce. It is now trading just shy of 700 usd an ounce.

The dispute surrounding the gold sales comes only a couple of weeks after Brown was accused of ignoring advice when he decided to remove the tax credit on dividends 10 years ago.

Sydney ACC 12:20 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Brown and Bank of England :

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article1654931.ece

Mtl JP 11:11 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Syd, where is that copy/paste from ?

--

Gordon Brown is facing new allegations that he disregarded Bank of England advice when selling half the country's gold stocks, generaly concidered a bungle.

--

It is both amuzing and amazing to observe a supposed shoe-in replacement to Blair consorting with a generally shunned dead duck:

Gordon Brown has said he "got on very well" with US President George Bush at their first face-to-face meeting.

Mr Brown said the "friendly" encounter not been planned, and Mr Bush just "happened to be available to come and see me" while he was visiting the White House.

HK [email protected] 10:57 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 09:31 GMT April 15, 2007
New weapons

Marxism

"The middle classes could become a revolutionary class, taking the role envisaged for the proletariat by Marx," says the report.
______________________________________________________

Speaking about the US. Most of the citizenry has been long ago well idiotized by the consumer society ideology, so I don’t see how this will turn into Marxism (in the US at least).

Though no one should underestimate the power of the intelligent ones in the US, but the majority may not be more than proletariats with lumpen-consumer-mentality.

World-wide corrupt societies were existing before the rise of communism, and do exist up to now after its fall.
These are the most powerful and durable structures based on benefiting the fewer and exploiting the majority.

And that I believe what will continue to exist, under whatever name you may call it.

Nothing to worry about Marxism in the US, all time the US can sell the lottery of the “American Dream”, causing many to like migrating and getting there a jaaab (job) and escape the misery in their countries.

Even for the losers in that lottery, standing in breadline in the US, or living on social security, may be more dignified than starving in their barrios or shanties of their countries.
In other words (COME TO THE USA) every number wins!!!

So why Marxism?

AND GOD BLESS AMERICA!!!

AZUSA 4x-ed 09:41 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Cheerful as usual Mr. Perrie! Reminds me of a quote by Hemingway: “there are people who want to know everything and those who are sick of what they already know. The latter say nothing in order to prevent things from turning for the worse, while the former interfere in all, hoping to make things better.”

Como Perrie 09:35 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
They have forgotten epidemics, which are coming too

most probably from 200 mios to 2 bios of population will die in next decades imo due epidemics

bibi

Como Perrie 09:31 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
New weapons

An electromagnetic pulse will probably become operational by 2035 able to destroy all communications systems in a selected area or be used against a "world city" such as an international business service hub. The development of neutron weapons which destroy living organs but not buildings "might make a weapon of choice for extreme ethnic cleansing in an increasingly populated world". The use of unmanned weapons platforms would enable the "application of lethal force without human intervention, raising consequential legal and ethical issues". The "explicit use" of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons and devices delivered by unmanned vehicles or missiles.

Technology

By 2035, an implantable "information chip" could be wired directly to the brain. A growing pervasiveness of information communications technology will enable states, terrorists or criminals, to mobilise "flashmobs", challenging security forces to match this potential agility coupled with an ability to concentrate forces quickly in a small area.

Marxism

"The middle classes could become a revolutionary class, taking the role envisaged for the proletariat by Marx," says the report. The thesis is based on a growing gap between the middle classes and the super-rich on one hand and an urban under-class threatening social order: "The world's middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest". Marxism could also be revived, it says, because of global inequality. An increased trend towards moral relativism and pragmatic values will encourage people to seek the "sanctuary provided by more rigid belief systems, including religious orthodoxy and doctrinaire political ideologies, such as popularism and Marxism".

Pressures leading to social unrest

By 2010 more than 50% of the world's population will be living in urban rather than rural environments, leading to social deprivation and "new instability risks", and the growth of shanty towns. By 2035, that figure will rise to 60%. Migration will increase. Globalisation may lead to levels of international integration that effectively bring inter-state warfare to an end. But it may lead to "inter-communal conflict" - communities with shared interests transcending national boundaries and resorting to the use of violence.

Population and Resources

The global population is likely to grow to 8.5bn in 2035, with less developed countries accounting for 98% of that. Some 87% of people under the age of 25 live in the developing world. Demographic trends, which will exacerbate economic and social tensions, have serious implications for the environment - including the provision of clean water and other resources - and for international relations. The population of sub-Saharan Africa will increase over the period by 81%, and that of Middle Eastern countries by 132%.

The Middle East

The massive population growth will mean the Middle East, and to a lesser extent north Africa, will remain highly unstable, says the report. It singles out Saudi Arabia, the most lucrative market for British arms, with unemployment levels of 20% and a "youth bulge" in a state whose population has risen from 7 million to 27 million since 1980. "The expectations of growing numbers of young people [in the whole region] many of whom will be confronted by the prospect of endemic unemployment ... are unlikely to be met," says the report.

Islamic militancy

Resentment among young people in the face of unrepresentative regimes "will find outlets in political militancy, including radical political Islam whose concept of Umma, the global Islamic community, and resistance to capitalism may lie uneasily in an international system based on nation-states and global market forces", the report warns. The effects of such resentment will be expressed through the migration of youth populations and global communications, encouraging contacts between diaspora communities and their countries of origin.

Tension between the Islamic world and the west will remain, and may increasingly be targeted at China "whose new-found materialism, economic vibrancy, and institutionalised atheism, will be an anathema to orthodox Islam".

Iran

Iran will steadily grow in economic and demographic strength and its energy reserves and geographic location will give it substantial strategic leverage. However, its government could be transformed. "From the middle of the period," says the report, "the country, especially its high proportion of younger people, will want to benefit from increased access to globalisation and diversity, and it may be that Iran progressively, but unevenly, transforms...into a vibrant democracy."

Terrorism

Casualties and the amount of damage inflicted by terrorism will stay low compared to other forms of coercion and conflict. But acts of extreme violence, supported by elements within Islamist states, with media exploitation to maximise the impact of the "theatre of violence" will persist. A "terrorist coalition", the report says, including a wide range of reactionary and revolutionary rejectionists such as ultra-nationalists, religious groupings and even extreme environmentalists, might conduct a global campaign of greater intensity".

Climate change

There is "compelling evidence" to indicate that climate change is occurring and that the atmosphere will continue to warm at an unprecedented rate throughout the 21st century. It could lead to a reduction in north Atlantic salinity by increasing the freshwater runoff from the Arctic. This could affect the natural circulation of the north Atlantic by diminishing the warming effect of ocean currents on western Europe. "The drop in temperature might exceed that of the miniature ice age of the 17th and 18th centuries."

Como Perrie 09:24 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
FUTURE VIEW

Richard Norton-Taylor
Monday April 9, 2007
The Guardian


Information chips implanted in the brain. Electromagnetic pulse weapons. The middle classes becoming revolutionary, taking on the role of Marx's proletariat. The population of countries in the Middle East increasing by 132%, while Europe's drops as fertility falls. "Flashmobs" - groups rapidly mobilised by criminal gangs or terrorists groups.
This is the world in 30 years' time envisaged by a Ministry of Defence team responsible for painting a picture of the "future strategic context" likely to face Britain's armed forces. It includes an "analysis of the key risks and shocks". Rear Admiral Chris Parry, head of the MoD's Development, Concepts & Doctrine Centre which drew up the report, describes the assessments as "probability-based, rather than predictive".
The 90-page report comments on widely discussed issues such as the growing economic importance of India and China, the militarisation of space, and even what it calls "declining news quality" with the rise of "internet-enabled, citizen-journalists" and pressure to release stories "at the expense of facts". It includes other, some frightening, some reassuring, potential developments that are not so often discussed.

Como Perrie 09:22 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
or read end of globalisation...most are sick of that

Como Perrie 09:21 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
I do have several doubts about the chinese remimbi, not that It might not rise, but might collapse first too before the usd imo

AZUSA 4x-ed 08:49 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Jake, I don’t disagree with most of your points except 'maybe' (on the account that I wrongly interpreted your message) the last one. I believe that saber rattling is what got us here in the first place. Perhaps it’s time to sharpen our diplomatic skills and not our bayonets? Paulson is a great guy (on many accounts), and this country needs more people like him. However, I also believe that some of his success is a testament as to how perceptive the international business community is to diplomatic intervention.

Syd 08:32 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
More support now exists for the International Monetary Fund to sell part of its gold reserves to meet its future financing requirements, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown said Saturday.

Speaking at a press conference after a meeting of the Fund's International Monetary and Financial Committee, Brown said more countries were coming into line with plans to sell off some of the IMF's gold.

"What I found encouraging today was that there are countries which previously had not been prepared to consider gold sales but were prepared to do so now," Brown said, adding there was "no doubt" that gold sales were potentially part of the IMF's likely future financing.

Cbj Jake 06:30 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
HK RF - RF, well said. No one has a handle on it. So inertia rules.
Concerning future "certainties". Let's remember that China does not have a dynamic political system. It is sclerotic. Money is being generated without reponsibilty to an ethic that will move the country as a whole. This is not the early days of capitalism in China. The world is already heavily polluted and China is choking on it, without a clue. Pollution arrives in California from China and we are distracted with ccy rates!
Ah Europe! As Kissinger well put it. Who do you call when you want the key man? If a man as clumsy as Rumsfeld could split it apart, how easily it would be for a leader of a more refined subtlety. By accident, the pentagon is doing it again by wanting to put missles in eastern europe. How easy it is to split europe apart! There are very competitive agendas there. Germany still wants to please Bush! - as do the weaker members. Russia could unsettle europe innocently - it does not seem to care that it is seen as uncouth.
Even US could split. California is much more "with it" than the federal government. What it does is very signigicant.
Lastly, US has an unmatched military machine if it is in the hands of a strong leader. There will be no great changes effected without reference to this great and projective force. You don't build a great military and sit on it. You will let people know that you have it and will use it! Of course, inept leadership could make things very unpredictable.

Sydney ACC 05:31 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
G7 faced three major issues:
1. Trade imbalances;
2. Carry-trade; and
3. China and yuan.

All three issues are linked, however, the immediate concern to G7 is the relignment of the Chinese yuan. They get China to revalue then the other issues will be lesas difficult to tackle.
I have said before, Bank of Japan and the Fed cannot expect PBOC to revalue the yuan if they intervene in the forex markets to drive up the value of yen against the dollar and the euro. We have to wait for the major adjustment if it ever occurs.
Therefore the carrytrade continues to push EUR/JPY in the direction of 183, AUD/USD 90 cents, NZD/USD 80 cents, EUR 1.50, GBP/USD 2.20. FX markets overshoot Soros is right and the FX market is to important to be left to lassaize faire attitude of traders. After all what has contributed to the problems the US has now is that the dollar strengthened to 86 cents against the euro, 135 against yen and 1.3700 against sterling in 2001.
Nevertheless I see continued improvements in the US trade balance, maybe the market will wake up to the adjustments underway.

HK [email protected] 03:44 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
.
_____________SEE WHO TALKS(Japan's finance minister)_____________
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=1b8f8064-8a8e-4e37-b5fd-b0a7e60a9ea7

"It's important that each country...move ahead with structural reforms and healthy developments, instead of trying to fix global imbalances solely through exchange rates," Omi said.

"The consensus (among the IMFC members) is that (each) individual country (should) maintain steady developments by resolving its own structural problems and, through that process, mend the world's imbalances," he said.

IN OTHER WORDS: "PLEASE DO NOT BOTHER US (JAPS) ABOUT THE YEN VALUE, AND LET US GO ON AS USUAL WITH OUR CURRENCY POLICY".

OR wait for structural reforms around the world for about 15 years more LOL.

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:47 GMT April 15, 2007 Reply   
Top Honors for 2006

Name(Age) ---------- Firm ---------- Earnings (in GBP)

John Arnold(33) - Centaurus Energy - 750m-1bn
James Simons(68) - Renaissance Technologies - 750m-1bn
Eddie Lampert(44) - ESL Investments - 500-750m
T Boone Pickens(78) - BP Capital - 500-750m
Stevie Cohen(50) - SAC Capital Advisors - 500m+
Stephen Feinberg(47) - Cerberus Capital - 400-450m
Paul Tudor Jones(53) - Tudor Investment - 350-400m
Bruce Kovner(62) - Caxton Associates - 350-400m
Israel Englander(58) - Millennium Management - 300-350m
David Shaw(55) - DE Shaw & Co - 300-350m

(seems to be getting harder to dispute that the trend is your friend)

 




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