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Forex Forum Archive for 04/16/2007

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:55 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
What Could the April 22 French Election Mean to the Euro?
Monday, 16 April LINK

Baltimore Zoltan 23:16 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Pecs Andras 23:14 GMT April 16, 2007

You are welcome! (szivesen)

Pecs Andras 23:14 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Zoltan
Thanks a lot.

NYC beyond_destiny 23:13 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Tallinn viies 22:24 GMT April 16, 2007

There is no retracement to jump on Euro short. Just sell @ any price..Any suggestion? TIA

Baltimore Zoltan 22:30 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Pecs Andras 21:59 GMT April 16, 2007


I've just posted an answer for you on Help. Hope it helps.

Tallinn viies 22:24 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
yep, daily cycles turned after nyc close.
after previous day low taken out first target 1,3480-85 and 1,3435-40. where most of the chaps who missed first move would love to jump on the euro train. good night

Gen dk 22:10 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 22:10 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Not a price prediction since markets went far from reality, but still interesting a reading.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/15/bloomberg/bxecon.php

USA BAY 22:04 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
DR Q,

As always appreciate any views from you and thanks for taking the time to do the analysis. gt

Melbourne Qindex 22:03 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 22:00 GMT - Thank you for your kind words.

Melbourne Qindex 22:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:58 GMT - I will post them later today.

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:00 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 21:54 //
always great input from you!

Pecs Andras 21:59 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
I have posted a question on the help forum about a forex site.
Could sombody help me, please. TIA

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:59 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:44 GMT //
hello - nice to see you!
audusd - on Daily - MACD is sloping down for a cross...
look also at this - last rally with such lenght appeared in April- May 2006 - 800 pips..

the present trend from 77 - 83 = 600 pips
we have a doji (undecisiveness) yesterday with open below the yest close

on 2 hour - it's ready to test the 34 ema..
I'm not sure however - MACD on 2 & 4 already signalled a sell and it's not moving much down - maybe we will have divergence here.. I will wach further.. GT and GL man!

USA BAY 21:58 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
DR Q,

Could you kindly comment on aud/usd and aud/jpy. thanks

LKWD JJ 21:58 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:51 GMT April 16, 2007
==========================
in other words :carry trade still favors aussie!

Melbourne Qindex 21:54 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The following is still valid :-


USD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1597. The odds are high that the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412 will be tackled. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.1400 and the market may test the extreme trading range of 1.1040 - 1.1226 if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412.

GVI john 21:51 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

USA BAY 21:51 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
aud/usd technically yes, 0.8265 seems to be the initial target for a short but, with the buying interest showed in aud I doubt these technical indicators are valid

GVI john 21:50 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3546	119.79	1.2137	1.9898	1.1311	0.8320	162.27
High	1.3578	119.87	1.2148	1.9940	1.1375	0.8357	162.43
Low	1.3536	118.98	1.2116	1.9857	1.1302	0.8313	161.45
04/16/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/16/2007					
5 day 	1.3482	119.29	1.2165	1.9802	1.1383	0.8288	160.83
10 day	1.3426	119.13	1.2188	1.9748	1.1462	0.8227	159.95
20 day 	1.3381	118.44	1.2167	1.9704	1.1522	0.8153	158.48
50 day 	1.3238	118.71	1.2244	1.9570	1.1641	0.7965	157.14
100 day	1.3161	118.88	1.2263	1.9589	1.1648	0.7900	156.45
200 day	1.2953	117.99	1.2345	1.9221	1.1454	0.7752	152.85

LKWD JJ 21:44 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
sofia kaprikorn excellent observation of descending triangle aussie. if it takes out 8310-12 target would be 8260's . top of last consolidation area. if it takes out the lows from the day it made new high with close in lower half of bar,(closed below open as well) on daily charts, would be a second reason to get short. as there will be 2 different time frame charts showing weakness. in the past this signal was good for a 2-3 day slide. some offered more pips than others.

Mtl JP 21:37 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 16:47 / The Loon sometimes flies differently than Bald Eagle/Spotted Owl cross. Range today: 1.1301 - 1.1339. Think 1.1275 is realistic, s/t.

dc CB 21:23 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
TORONTO (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar rose to its highest level in nearly five months versus the U.S. dollar on Monday, thanks to merger-related interest in Canadian firms, a Bank of Canada business outlook survey and strong commodity prices.

Domestic bond prices ended down as the survey from the central bank raised the prospect of higher interest rates.

The Canadian dollar closed at C$1.1311 to the U.S. dollar, or 88.41 U.S. cents, up from C$1.1370 to the U.S. dollar, or 87.95 U.S. cents, at Friday's close.

Merger news helped the currency extend its recent run early in the session as India's Essar Global said over the weekend it would buy Canadian steelmaker Algoma Steel Inc. for C$1.85 billion.

Later in the session the Canadian dollar built on its gains as the first-quarter survey, used by the Bank of Canada to help decide monetary policy, showed that capacity pressures and labor shortages are a big concern................................................

Baroda Hemal 21:17 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Anybody forecasting GOLD market ????? Any drop expected ???

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:08 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
however as our friend viies suggests - maybe we have to be on the strong side of the market - - Long...

if we look at 2 hours chart - the trend in AUDUSD is rising very nicely in 45 degree fashin (very sustaned price action)

if you connect the lows - you will se the trend is actually accelerating - there are T/Ls which are getting steeper - so if we see a correction - it might be to around the 83 handle - where it will be rejected off the T/L... then we will have a test of the trend and if it bounces off - there will be a sharp move - possibly an exhaustion rally...
however I post this only as observation - as I'm still learning this..

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:00 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
well man - AUDUSD on 1 & 2 hour charts
the top is forming a nice Descending triangle - base at lows 0.8312...

however - I'd love to see a comment from some more knowledgable trader if sucha brief consolidation can be traded as the abovementioned pattern..

all in all - if we test and break the base at 8312.. well with a triangle or not it is stilll a breakout.. - the problem is how to measure the target then..

Tallinn viies 20:56 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 20:54 GMT - no idea, suggest to trade long side. I sold my longs today 1,3560. and looking to get long very shortly again. would be nice to get in at 1,3485

USA BAY 20:54 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
TALLIN VIES,

So where is a good entry for short eur/usd. tia

Tallinn viies 20:52 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Val Vilnius 20:47 - I guess everyody would love to see test of all time high but sharks also wait to test under previous day low where stops suppose to wait :)

USA BAY 20:50 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN,

Even aud/usd chart shows reversal but I wonder if that pair follows any technical readings as there is a double top formation

Val Vilnius 20:47 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
To Tallinn viies: No reason to wait 1.3660 first ? It is so close and so strong resistance...

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:42 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
to be perfectly honest - on Hourly EURUSD MAs are sloping down to signal a reversal - GBPUSD is lagging but showing some early signs of correction too..

while JPY and CHF directions are not easy for to fathom at all...

Tallinn viies 20:35 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
good evening,
seems we will get first negative close after ca 250 points upmove on eurusd. this could lead euro down to 1,3480-85 first.

NYC beyond_destiny 20:20 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
may see swissie break 1.214/8/00 and $yen 119.9/0.3 on Thu

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY //
it's on the GVI pro forum - I pasted it - there is something wrong in the NZD - 87% long by non-comm / 90% short by comm..

USA BAY 19:57 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ,

YO, JJ, Long time no post, where have you been, hope everything thing is well and fine. gt

LKWD JJ 19:52 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
hello ! been away (march 15) but am back now. i see some things have moved a few figs. and even some posters as well. need to get busy with the news and do some ta.

USA BAY 19:52 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
SOFIA KAPRIKORN,,

Where is the article. thx

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:49 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 19:15 //
tnx. found it
NZD....87% LONG by non commercial
definately - off balance here compared to other ccys where the ratio is 50 - 55 or Yen 45 - 65...

might be uridashi issuance but I don't have a source to search - I just wonder when the dam will burst..

USA BAY 19:18 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
MONACO OILMAN,

Could you kindly cut and paste your article on GVI here pls. tia

USA Zeus 19:16 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 19:12 GMT April 16, 2007
Yes- In fact I have been known to give a pint here and there as all those who are "pure" should.

cheers

Monaco Oil man 19:15 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 19:01 GMT April 16, 2007

I have talked about it last week on the GV-I..

There's something up with the NZD.

St. Annaland Bob 19:12 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:57 GMT April 16, 2007

great news! ... you are classified to donate blood to victims of the latest global tragedies.

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oilman //

NZDUSD (Contracts of 100,000 NZdollars)
4/10/07 week 4/03/07 week

Long 21,068 23,361
Short 1,001 836
Net 20,067 22,525

COT is known for a contrarian indication - - the net long exposure shows an extremely strong conviction of the trend..

I see that everybody had bought - the risk is that if one wants to sell - since everybody is long he will be in illiquid market and there will be no demand to absorb new supply - so the price will plunge sharply..

I want to understand what might cause this to happen - and when posibly ...?

USA Zeus 18:57 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 18:53 GMT April 16, 2007

LOL- is all good our Secret Islander. Nothing but purity in the blood. As for the other...Already forgot what/who it is.
cheers!

St. Annaland Bob 18:55 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:50 GMT April 16, 2007

without ego then we never suffered from nuclear race

The Netherlands Purk 18:54 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:50 GMT April 16, 2007

Well FM for you i will take my hat off and bow, you are a true gentleman.

Atlanta South 18:54 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Will stay short until method starts to recoil in the opposite
direction & then will build a long position. If not for second
quessing method, I would have been in much sooner. Tks
for your views.

St. Annaland Bob 18:53 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:47 GMT April 16, 2007

sponge, yes! ... the rest, too much of Johnny & Walker in your blood system! ... take it easy, drink a sisi ... there is no chance on earth that I like CT more than you ... happy trades & bibi

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:52 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
monaco oilman //
hello, I'm sure you saw the COT report:
NZDUSD longs 21 k / short 1 k = long 20 k

such exposure is extremely directional - what do you think will cause the reversal?

The Netherlands Purk 18:52 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
ssshhh, i am trying to watch my favourite tv show: greys anatomy. Want to cut and surge the way Cris does....

Lahore FM 18:50 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
it is best not to say anything but sometimes things happen that some sort of reaction is just a spontaneous thing to happen.i wish ego had less to do here and when it has to do less this place looks like one of the best places to be.good trades to all!

Halifax CB 18:49 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Just off the wall it struck me that we may see Yen weakening for much longer than one expects - not from the carry trade but for the need for Japan to stay competitive with China globally, and to continue building export markets there. Maybe, maybe not....

USA Zeus 18:47 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
(Sponge) Bob = ldn, Luke Lurkson, Purk snr etc etc

Lahore FM 18:47 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 18:32 GMT April 16, 2007
Bob,jekyll and hyde was not in reference to Zeus and Purk but to the twist and split of strategy #13.

USA BAY 18:43 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
MONACO OIL MAN,,

OIL MAN , you call for nzd/usd 0.74 has reached today, whats next for the kiwi 0.80. thanks

USA Zeus 18:40 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 18:34 GMT April 16, 2007

South- Am actually building into a long position- as a different trade than the typical scalps posted here.
GT! :-)

St. Annaland Bob 18:39 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 18:33 GMT April 16, 2007

suppose one has USD 1'350 in 1YR deposit and he is 1K EURUSD long for 1YR FWD outright ... how much money that investor may lose?! ... you can try that formula with many pairs & crosses at different amounts ... it's about when coming into trade and when going out the trade ... happy trades!

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:35 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
I just watched the ticker today - and EURUSD & GBPUSD didn't move that much - so the E/J & G/J carriers are mostly inflated by the USDJPY upmove..

Monaco Oil man 18:34 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Anyways targets aren't that important, the importance is the present direction, as targets can change.
oil is going up , has been for a few years , when 50 was hit , the logical low i posted a new high as target, it is still valid.
The us$ is a good short , against every other ccy, has been for years , and will keep being unless a trigger happens, though that is not something to count on, if it happens, everyone will see it, atm short us$ , and get on the train..

Atlanta South 18:34 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
R u still short $/CAD from Friday? My method strongly suggesting stay short, so I jumped on @ 1349. Will cut out
a slice of pips @ 1299 when seen. GT

GENEVA DS 18:33 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Very comfortable with EURJPY shorts ? Will see.... how about 185 in 6 month,,,, and cad jpy 116 in 6 month and GBP JPY 275 in 6 month... have been wrong as well for a long time in these yen crosses... but feel it is not yet over and too many people still feel comfi..... gl...

St. Annaland Bob 18:32 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
FM

Purk & Zeus = Johnny & Walker

Lahore FM 18:30 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 18:28 GMT April 16, 2007
Alimin,that exactly might be the case.

Zeus&Purk,jekyll and hyde is always a fascinating read.

St. Annaland Bob 18:30 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
feeling here very comfortable with EURJPY shorts averaged @ 162.10

Makassar Alimin 18:28 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:18 GMT April 16, 2007

hi FM, usually it is a sign that some big move is about to happen :)

The Netherlands Purk 18:23 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:21 GMT April 16, 2007
Lahore FM 18:18 GMT April 16, 2007

And i have the finger to twist it for ya...

USA Zeus 18:21 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 18:18 GMT April 16, 2007
the place is looking like strategy #13 itself....twisted

FM- As Moscow Mike eluded it has to do with that twisted (sister).

Lahore FM 18:18 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
the place is looking like strategy #13 itself....twisted.

USA BAY 18:15 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
MONACO OIL MAN,

Whats your target for oil pls. thanks

Monaco Oil man 18:10 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Make it simple , parity..

USA BAY 18:08 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
MONACO OIL MAN,

So your target for usd/cad around 1.0xx area??/

HK [email protected] 18:07 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Baltimore Zoltan 17:58 GMT April 16, 2007

These (GS) are the Paulson people, you may not trust them if you wish.

Who knows what they have now on their mind.
Anyway the policy is of weakening the USD by weakening the Yen while getting good interest from the C. trade.

Baltimore Zoltan 17:58 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
HK [email protected] 17:51 GMT April 16, 2007 :

They may be referring to the fact that Japan will remove restrictions on triangular mergers, starting in May, which should help yen.

CT Cris 17:57 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 00:58 GMT April 16, 2007
Looks as if GBP/USD could be a bit rangy today.
====
crazeus...sure it was Rangy Roover.

Monaco Oil man 17:54 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Re $/CAD only 1300 pips to go left.

HK [email protected] 17:51 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Is that one makes sense for you?
Bloomberg

Yen to Rebound From Record Low Versus Euro, Goldman Sachs Says

By Ye Xie

April 16 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will rebound from an all- time low against the euro as foreign investors may increase purchases of Japanese assets, boosting demand for the currency, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The yen, trading at 162.30 per euro at 1:01 p.m. in New York, will strengthen to 155.30 per euro within three months, according Thomas Stolper, an economist at Goldman Sachs in London. At that level, it would be the strongest since mid- March.

``Strong capital inflow will help the yen rebound,'' said Stolper.

The only sign of possible reversal, is the relatively fewer posts on this forum in the last few hours though the market is so mad.

USA Zeus 17:50 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 17:40 GMT April 16, 2007
Thx Mike. The Mother Russian vessel is welcome anytime.! :-)


USA Zeus 00:58 GMT April 16, 2007
Looks as if GBP/USD could be a bit rangy today.
======================================
Precisely accurate as exactly expected. LOL
censored

moscow mike 17:40 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:24 GMT April 16, 2007

Thanks dear Zeus. Besf slices to you. Will keep in touch here when time allows.

P.S. Have heard boat is sailing from mother russia to Zeus land this summer. Perhaps will take a trip.

CT Cris 17:31 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:24 GMT April 16, 2007
CT CRIS,

Thanks, so it is in bullish phase.
====
yes..sideways bullish.(sideways uptrend)censored

USA BAY 17:25 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Next target for aud/usd 8495???

USA BAY 17:24 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS,

Thanks, so it is in bullish phase.

USA Zeus 17:24 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 17:16 GMT April 16, 2007
LOL- Great to see you here. Will have to stick to my gut it out "Benchmade", smooth as butter approach.


ab- swing trading oil now. Would consider thinning gold on rallies now from that buy on dip call the other day. As long as the trend is in tact can still buy on dips as well.

cheers

CT Cris 17:20 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:11 GMT April 16, 2007
I we may see gbp/jpy making a run to 241.xx again, any comments on a long position at this point. thanks
=====
we may see 239.00 after it declines to 238.00.

moscow mike 17:16 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:10 GMT April 16, 2007

Unfortunately they are too fast & furious to share live, but running smoother than Victorinox slices.

hk ab 17:16 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
zeus are you still holding oil positions? i am holding many gold positions now and want some interpretation of your shake out view on them.. TIA.

USA BAY 17:11 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
I we may see gbp/jpy making a run to 241.xx again, any comments on a long position at this point. thanks

USA Zeus 17:10 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Moscow Mike-
Are you still using those hi-tech charts created from shared algorithms implemented in the MIG-32??

USA Zeus 17:03 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 16:50 GMT April 16, 2007

LOL Mike- Thx for your help. Will never know...

CT Cris 17:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 16:53 GMT April 16, 2007
CT Cris 16:49 GMT April 16, 2007
========
wiseman.. I still admired with you.

red bank fxdh 17:00 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
NAHB housing mkt index declined 3 to 33

van 17:00 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Sounds like a plan I will try as well. Thanks.

USA Zeus 16:55 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
van 16:46 GMT April 16, 2007

van- I really don't know. System just indicates it is a good idea to build a position and have been tweaking and adjusting it on rallies while putting all the building blocks in place

Then will either get creamed or take the cream. For this awaited entry will double down below 1.13 if I can get an offer(ask) rate then will yet again double or even triple down at or near 1.12 area for a wait and see with a stop below that last allocation TBD once there.

GL GT

moscow mike 16:53 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:49 GMT April 16, 2007

"there are no bad students, there are bad teachers"

And i am not sure what you are refering too.

moscow mike 16:50 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:47 GMT April 16, 2007
I would sell you few US cents there to make you happy, but not sure it can make sense LOL

GL GT

CT Cris 16:49 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 16:41 GMT April 16, 2007
CT Cris 16:38 GMT April 16, 2007
=====
I think you tried and failed to be his good student.

USA Zeus 16:47 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have an offer (ask) rate at or below 1.13 or is Zeus the only one that can't get it???

van 16:46 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
zeus. how high do you believe US/Can may go once it bounces off 1.300. Waiting for your reply thanks.

moscow mike 16:41 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:38 GMT April 16, 2007
really?

I think that you have splited personality.

CT Cris 16:38 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 16:35 GMT April 16, 2007
CT Cris 16:19 GMT April 16, 2007
=======
yes, he is my great teacher.

moscow mike 16:35 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:19 GMT April 16, 2007

you get so wonderful quotation/fast fingers!
I knew only one fellow who did that before - Amman wfakhourly.

Are you brothers/sisters?

USA Zeus 16:34 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Still patiently waiting for USD/CAD 1.13 to print and alarm the buy trigger. Trading equities to kill some time until then.

HK JR 16:33 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
20 shot dead at Virginia Tech University...sorry for off topic

CT Cris 16:33 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
also I said 120.00 is coming for usd.jpy

Amman Wasefoncrack 16:25 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:19 GMT April 16, 2007
Your signals sound too good to be true.
Who just delt an offer rate of 1.1300 to tp? TIA

CT Cris 16:19 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:47 GMT April 16, 2007
usd.cad
====
sell at 1.1340-30 tp 1.1300

=====
exactly.. as I said.

Makassar Alimin 16:16 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
just checking chart, i agree usdcad is a good place to try some long here, good r/r will place stop under 1.1250

from a quick glance at cadjpy, there could be a swapping role here with usdcad bouncing while usdjpy retreating a bit just to hold the balance

london ms 16:10 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
i wonder if David Bloom from hsbc who said on cnbc he didnt think £$ would get the magic 2 mark was getting very nervous

USA Zeus 15:55 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Well- Getting ready to go in heavy on the USD/CAD divebomb below 1.13

Lahore FM 15:22 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
1.1322 long stops removed from 1.1310.

hk ab 15:05 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
after dlr/jpy, dlr/chf willbe next.

London NYAM 14:58 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
The dollar bites back.
USDJPY looks to be testing resistance (4hly) from 122.08 high (11 Feb) to 121.64 high (22 Feb) now at 119.79

Loonie is diving for that support I ,mentioned last week at 1.1274 on dailies. How will it fayre down there?

NYC beyond_destiny 14:45 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
my gut feeling is that the anti-$ sentiment will change once loonie stopped going down further. With CADYEN is moving toward multi-yr high of 106.25, we may see the correction soon

The Netherlands Purk 14:45 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Loonie will eat all stops i am afraid just under 11290....
There will be some orders there so we will see the bounce somewhere there back to 11320. It is like a copy of last week. Loonie passed 11422 and look at the price now. let us see if we can see that 11290 tonight already.

Bodrum OEE 14:43 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Dear Zeus,

Thank you very much for kind posts. I appreciate them.

The reason I am interested in GBP/USD is to determine USD/JPY and GBP/JPY directions.

I wish you and all else peace, health and happiness; and am leaving.

Kind regards

London Mamun 14:27 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM.
Got it. many thanks

The Netherlands Purk 14:24 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Well as long as e/j is up there e/u has no where to go i guess. Lets see if e/j can make it to 16244...

madrid mm 14:23 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
We live in strange days. And they get stranger all the time. That feeling you get when you don't know what's happening.
On the one hand they say that they diversify out of the USD.
On the other hand they love carry trade....

Don t ask me who are ¨they¨....please ..8-)

Dublin Flip 14:22 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Whew that's a relief.
Yeah I agree. Those one issue groups, like the NRA, only pander to crackpot extremist radicals who operate outside societal norms-LOL

RIC fxq 14:21 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Actually Flip is was joshing about the Vegetarian Party but how about the Pansexual Peace Party? That was for real in 2004.

2004 General Election US political parties .

Lahore FM 14:19 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
London Mamun 14:09 GMT April 16, 2007
hope you are well Mamun.do check the box.

RIC fxq 14:16 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 14:05 GMT

nah, but to be a candidate for the Vegetarian Party running for the presidency is is!

hk ab 14:15 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
it will be funny to see dlr/jpy 120 prints......

London Mamun 14:09 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM
after long time today sold gbp-usd at 1.9925 stop 2.0025
please advice at [email protected]

Dublin Flip 14:05 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
To be a vegatarian is to be a fringe candidate?? -LOL

RIC fxq 14:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 13:55 GMT

actually there is ALWAYS some fringe communist running in US general elections (among many other finge candidates like Vegetarian), just that their % of the popular vote is .001% or less.
Of course these people are not funded by the government/taxpayers so their exposure is minor.

But that has nothing to do with what candidates here may or mayt not say. (I-VT) was the declared communist when he was the mayor of Burlington VT, the largest albeit tiny, city in VT.

red bank fxdh 14:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
sales up .4

red bank fxdh 14:00 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
inventories up .3

Makassar Alimin 13:56 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
surprisingly, haven't heard much about rumours and mis-pressing of button by junior dealers for quite a while :) that would be fun to have as 'shake-out' as Zeus mentioned

Monaco Oil man 13:55 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 13:25 GMT April 16, 2007

How many communists running for the presidential election in the US?

The Netherlands Purk 13:47 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Yes mr. Balls....
Dont give them away, JR. needs people with balls.

In the meantime e/j is struggling and fighting to get to that 16220 again, and loonie can not pass 11330 for the time being, but it will.... mib keeping the e/u from its correction wanting people to have impatience policy out of the closet...

USA Zeus 13:43 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Sense lots of contra-dollar complacency. Theme of the week could be "shakeout".

Lahore FM 13:40 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 13:39 GMT April 16, 2007
quite agree Sir!

hk ab 13:40 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
The TICS seem to have surprised many.

FW CS 13:39 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:12 GMT April 16, 2007
$ should be rallying on such good USD news. Give it today if it cannot then $ slide to continue

hk ab 13:25 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
oilman, I think the mkt has already turned their interest to aud, cad and kiwi.....

RIC fxq 13:25 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
"..Some of the things they say would be forbidden in the Land of free speech..USA..."

I would like to know what has been said the "couldn't" be said in the US pls, OilMaN

Lahore FM 13:24 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Some MIB been in touch with me re timing their entry.just kidding!

USA Zeus 13:23 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Looks like a USD rally coming

Lahore FM 13:22 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:17 GMT April 16, 2007
long.

Gen dk 13:19 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Monaco Oil man 13:19 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Morning,


The $ keeps stumbling , looking at a %Chart , we can definitely observe that the US$ has been stable for the last 2 years...(Euro Percentage Chart)

If the trend is to resume (Like 1.00 to 1.20 trend) , we could easily see 1.60(and the 2.0 posted target) within a few month (Let's say next december).

Some things of note , however could give some weight on the balance for the US$ :

-Election time in europe , and right now in France..
France not really important in the grand scheme of things , however France is important in terms of EEC members.
France electors have voted AGAINST europe, presidential election running with 12 runners, 3 of which are on the right,2 of those 3 , extremist right..Rest are all communist , socialist..Some of the things they say would be forbidden in the Land of free speech..USA...That in itself is another issue however..
So just have to note this risk pending on the euro...

Apart from that Chart wise(techs) , or fundamentally I don't see much supportive for the US$ in the months and years ahead..
Events could happen that reverse the trend, so far , nothing of the sort is happening.

GL GT.


hk ab 13:17 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
FM//your current bias towards usd pls.

Lahore FM 13:12 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
feb TICS 94.5 billi against 79 bill the previous month.

USA Zeus 13:12 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Yes- he is disgusting for closing out of a position then playing a joke recalling the signal with an “as I said”. They will be laughing their balls off in Amman with WTF Hourly tomorrow-

CT Cris 19:22 GMT April 2, 2007
”…me with the doneky who laughs on the the joke next day , cause it takes him sometime to understand it.”

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:10 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
look at that... spot 1992x!!!

The Netherlands Purk 13:05 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Feelindicator says that e/u is due for a correction. 13621 will spoil that....
Loonie: we have to see if loonie wants to go under the 113...
mib showed lotsa strength....

NYC beyond_destiny 13:03 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
HK REVDAX 12:59 GMT April 16, 2007

Patient is gold in forex.

Market always move excessively and reverse quietly....

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
REVDAX - the market seems to be very complacent. Did anybody mention or notice the fact that we are 1992 highs in GBPUSD?

HK REVDAX 12:59 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
I had to put the chart upside down in order to make some sense of it . I think euro/$ may finally take a dip, reluctantly as it possibly does, in order to surprise those who have totally given up on the short side.

madrid mm 12:54 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
at the moment the cme shows not much difference between the spot rate and june futures contracts for gbp-usd while the usd-yen sees a difference of -100 pips fwiw

CT Cris 12:51 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 12:41 GMT April 16, 2007
CT Cris, ur view re usdjpy for archive? buy for 120++?

=====
is coming.

CT Cris 12:49 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
sure the disgusting man.

NYC beyond_destiny 12:48 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:34 GMT April 16, 2007
data is good - but looking at the ticker - it was only means of accumulating short USD positions in the post data liquidity I think...

Yeah, feel so...

I think many weeklies has euro long stop below day/weekly high btw 1.353/1.351/1.349 Let's see if short may penetrate all these..

Lahore FM 12:41 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
feb retail sales ex autos revised higher to plus 0.4 percent from minus 0.1.

Makassar Alimin 12:41 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris, ur view re usdjpy for archive? buy for 120++?

USA Zeus 12:35 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Should read "...to sell at 1.9920..."

USA Zeus 12:34 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Reminds me of strategy 13 that says to sell at 1.920 then if rise approx 15 pips sell again then tp 1.9897...Hope you got those pips!-

USA Zeus 14:34 GMT April 13, 2007

================
GBP.USD
Sell towards 1.9920. If rise sell again.


NAUGHT!

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:34 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
data is good - but looking at the ticker - it was only means of accumulating short USD positions in the post data liquidity I think...

Syd 12:31 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
US Mar Retail & Food Sales +0.7%; Consensus +0.5%

Syd 12:28 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Italian PM Cites Strong Euro Concern In Summit With Japan PM TOKYO (AP)--Italian Premier Romano Prodi expressed concerns about the strength of the euro against the yen during talks with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Monday, the Italian leader said.



MLT PA 12:23 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:23 GMT April 16, 2007
"as I said" - then why later post?
CT Cris 17:57 GMT April 13, 2007
"..... we exited all positions around 19860."

If your conviction was so strong then you wouldn't have exited all postions around 1.9860.

Syd 12:12 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Slight fall in UK property prices
The DCLG result differs from recent Halifax and Nationwide surveys which have shown house prices rising sharply.
Statistical quirk
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6559109.stm

NYC beyond_destiny 12:10 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
8:30 ET
USD Advance Retail Sales (MAR) 0.5% 0.1%
USD Retail Sales Less Autos (MAR) 0.8% -0.1%
USD Empire Manufacturing (APR) 7.5 1.9

It may signal a large correction if data met consensus.

Auckland trotter 11:56 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 11:38 GMT April 16, 2007

I have down pressure for the EUR/USD to a 50% fib on the 1 hour 30 day chart around 1.3432.

Ref. Previous posts.

Makassar Alimin 11:55 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
why isn't Kampo aiming at usdjpy to bring it well above 120 and choosing lower yield eurjpy instead?

Lahore FM 11:55 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 11:34 GMT April 16, 2007
long usdcad again at 1.1322 after getting stopped out for 1.1350 long at amended 1.1340 stop.
----------
stop 1310,,,t/p 1360.

CT Cris 11:47 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
====
sell at 1.1340-30 tp 1.1300

GVI john 11:47 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 11:46 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3534	119.17	1.2140	1.9864	1.1369	0.8330	161.28
High	1.3555	119.58	1.2190	1.9887	1.1396	0.8338	161.46
Low	1.3482	118.22	1.2068	1.9786	1.1332	0.8288	159.90
04/13/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/13/2007					
5 day 	1.3445	119.19	1.2190	1.9746	1.1426	0.8258	160.24
10 day	1.3408	118.93	1.2189	1.9737	1.1488	0.8212	159.46
20 day 	1.3369	118.33	1.2167	1.9681	1.1545	0.8137	158.19
50 day 	1.3226	118.72	1.2251	1.9564	1.1651	0.7954	157.01
100 day	1.3157	118.84	1.2262	1.9585	1.1648	0.7895	156.36
200 day	1.2949	117.97	1.2346	1.9213	1.1454	0.7748	152.77

Como Perrie 11:41 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
yeap agree trotter better stay tight ahead of the many important datas today ..

Auckland trotter 11:38 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Short profit on the EUR/USD - down from 1.2561 on the 5 min 12 hour chart.

We shall see on the bigger picture.

Syd 11:37 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Finance Minister Koji Omi's comments underline how skeptical - and unenthusiastic - Tokyo is about the idea of pushing down the value of the U.S. dollar to reduce global imbalances, which are represented by the U.S.'s huge trade deficit.

In theory, a fall in the dollar could shrink the trade gap by boosting sales of U.S. goods abroad and making imported items more expensive in the U.S. But analysts generally doubt that countries relying on exports to the U.S. for growth - such as Japan and China - are willing to pull the greenback lower.

In a prepared speech to the International Monetary and Financial Committee, Omi said that global imbalances "should be addressed primarily through a responsible implementation of sound macroeconomic policies and effective structural reforms carried out" by each country.

Lahore FM 11:34 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
long usdcad again at 1.1322 after getting stopped out for 1.1350 long at amended 1.1340 stop.

Auckland trotter 11:28 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 11:14 GMT April 16, 2007
High for the EUR/USD is 1.3666.

Play the pips.

CT Cris 11:23 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:21 GMT April 13, 2007
gbp.usd
=====
heading twd 19920 after data...buy now ...buy another if decline. at intervals 30 pips.
====
as I said.

Como Perrie 11:19 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:59 GMT April 16, 2007

Last week was talking about a 165 or so as a possible level to be seen. But crosses are not the key to the whole game imo, just an offset to volaitlity in prime markets CBs are using imo

Auckland trotter 11:14 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
The longer term charts for the EUR/USD are showing over bought with the shorter term charts starting to show a down.

The weekly expected fundamentals appear in favour of the USD.

I see some possible up to the upper trend line on the 1 week 3 year around 1.3636.

Also see some over needed down for the EUR/USD.

Syd 11:07 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:05 GMT many thanks appreciated

Syd 11:06 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Fill those risk appetitesUSDJPY Daily Chart (H&S)

Atlanta South 11:05 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
SYD
Over the yrs I've followed the forum I have got to say you are
the best financial new source to ever post. Thanks for your
very informative & timely post my friend.

The Netherlands Purk 11:04 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
The e/j is entering a new zone btw, 16220 was yesterday, so i expect that today again as well. Than some longing into the 40's that gives nice shorting poss. for 16180.

Loonie again: when i look at the chart basicly maybe new lows are possible, but not before 11420.

The Netherlands Purk 11:00 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Pattern in loonie stays the same. Still a lot of shorting. Guess there are a lot of orders. So next stop is around 11290.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:59 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie //
with EURJPY above 162 - maybe those CBs will need more efforts..

madrid mm 10:51 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
April 16 (Bloomberg) -- Moody's Investors Service, expecting more hedge-fund managers to follow the lead of Citadel Investment Group LLC and sell debt publicly, plans to begin rating the funds' obligations.

Moody's ratings will expand on the criteria, announced in July, it uses to assess funds' operational stability. Hedge funds will have difficulty earning an investment-grade rating because they are inherently risky borrowers, Moody's said in a report today.

``Investment-grade ratings are possible, although the typical structural and operational features of a hedge fund make achieving one very challenging,'' the New York-based company said in the report. ``Unsecured creditors are exposed to the risk that equity investors can redeem their investment in the fund and get paid out prior to the debt being paid off.''

Como Perrie 10:40 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
some sources cited many Central banks very active friday and today in curbing trends again

Como Perrie 10:36 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
maybe at the G7 then they just agreed that better than an carry trade collapse would be better another emerging markets crisis I guess

Como Perrie 10:34 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
do see lotsa emerging currencies favouring the USD, which makes all bit strange to me. interesting the indian rupee at 8 yrs high

Syd 10:33 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Super-euro may spark a currency war while French battle the ECB LINK

Borrowers offered 10 times salary
Rich customers are being allowed huge home loans, but there are big risks in mortgaging yourself to the hilt, writes Clare Francis LINK

Profit warnings surge
LINK

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:29 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
well I see..

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:28 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
eur lg 10:19 GMT //
great presentation there -->

btw - given the idea that market turns when the majority seea a one-way trend - it is highly possible that after we saw "an endorsement" of carry trade from G7 - that now we are in the exhaustion rally just before the turn...
of course this is just speculation.

Syd 10:16 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
China's renminbi promise
Country makes official pledge to loosen its currency's peg
China promises G7 finance chiefs it will loosen the peg on renminbi
By Edmund Conway in Washington DC
Last Updated: 12:41am BST 16/04/2007
China made an official pledge to loosen further the peg on its currency as the world's biggest economies promised to redress the policies that have generated worrying global imbalances.The written commitment yesterday from the economic powerhouse was one of the centrepieces of the final day of the International Monetary Fund's spring meeting.censored

Makassar Alimin 10:14 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Tokyo 10:01 GMT April 16, 2007

sure, do you get that feeling of 'everyone is a winner' these days? get a credit loan, buy everything we can and surely guaranteed a handsome return...hmmm

Syd 09:59 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
The FX market is on a collision course - the question is just with which iceberg the market will collide. The wake-up call at the end of February and early March when EUR/JPY plunged, together with EUR/CHF among others, was characterised as a necessary correction, and market participants have again pounced on the praiseworthy carry trades - a real money spinner.
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/64b6382e-7574-4b90-ade5-868e6a57d13e/5ca5a51f-b6e3-436c-a2ef-b70a3bb87fc7.pdf

NYC beyond_destiny 09:51 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Long swissie 1.212 again T/P 1.23

It has been all Euro action lately. And swissie is kinda synatic pair in next several weeks, likely traded btw 1.204-1.23.

any suggestion? TIA

GENEVA JFO 09:37 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Eur/usd : Extention at 1.3610 would give divergence and correction is setting till 1.3280. (very hard to do).
People are now very bearish on usd.

gd trade at all

Syd 09:16 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 09:14 GMT :-)

madrid mm 09:14 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Syd, it looks like only you and i are awake so far 8-)

Syd 09:07 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Japan MOF Fujii: Excess FX Moves Undesirable
The top bureaucrat at Japan's finance ministry said Monday that he won't comment on daily foreign exchange rates despite the euro's rise to an all-time high against the yen earlier in the day.

"As always, I will not comment on daily foreign exchange rates because that could have an unexpected impact on markets," Hideto Fujii said at a regular press conference.

"The Group of Seven financial heads agree that excessive foreign exchange moves are not desirable to support economic growth," he said.

Earlier Monday, the euro rose past the Y162 mark, setting another all-time high versus the yen in Asia.

Fujii then went on to repeat an official statement from the latest G7 meeting that it's important for market participants to recognize risks of positioning heavily in one particular direction.

As the G7 didn't touch on the yen's recent weakness at the weekend meeting, other high-yielding currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar also kicked off this week's trading higher against the yen. Currency dealers said players took the G7's silence on the issue as a green light to sell more yen.

Some players, though, speculate that euro may be high enough and indicated a U-turn may be just around the corner.

Syd 08:51 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
The top bureaucrat at Japan's finance ministry said Monday that he won't comment on daily foreign exchange rates despite the euro's rise to an all-time high against the yen earlier in the day.

"As always, I will not comment on daily foreign exchange rates because that could have an unexpected impact on markets," Hideto Fujii said at a regular press conference.

"The Group of Seven financial heads agree that excessive foreign exchange moves are not desirable to support economic growth," he said.

Syd 08:39 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Japan MOF Fujii: Excess FX Moves Undesirable For Econ Growth

madrid mm 08:28 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
"If you would like to know the value of money, go and try to borrow some."
Benjamin Franklin

Appropriate IMHO 8-)

Melbourne Qindex 08:27 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY : The monthly cycle normal trading upper limit is defined at 100.56 and 99.88* is a monthly cycle projected chart point.

madrid mm 08:22 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
if it goes on like this, it will be cheaper to fly to Japan, buy 5 Japanese cars and ship them back to Madrid for the cost of 1 Renault. Plus Kampo must be bored with usd-jpy....Must be discovering euro-jpy 8-)

hk ab 07:59 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
aud may follow the cousin cad soon.

madrid mm 07:53 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
I would recommend traders to register to the CME E-equivalents.
For a feel. And it is FREE 8-)

Gen dk 07:52 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:46 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Speculative Net EUR Longs Probably Increased
[Dow Jones] Speculators on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange increased their net USD positions by $3.9B in the week to last Tuesday while they raised their net long EUR positions to a record level of $17.5B. ABN-Amro suggests that this long position has probably been increased since then given the EUR/USD has risen about another 100 pips since then. Elsewhere, speculators increased their short JPY positions, cut their long GBP and AUD ones.

Gen dk 07:20 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

madrid mm 07:20 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
bloomberg -
Australia, N.Z. Dollars at Decade Highs Versus Yen as Carry Trades Prosper Australia's dollar traded near a decade-high against the yen after the Group of Seven nations said the global economy was expanding, giving investors confidence to buy higher-yielding assets.

N.Z. Dollar to Slide 11 Percent to 66 cents as Growth Slows, Goldman Says New Zealand's dollar may drop 11 percent to the weakest since November by year-end as interest rates slow economic growth, Goldman Sachs JBWere Ltd. predicts.

madrid mm 07:19 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
London Homeowners Reap $150,000 in a Year as U.K. Real Estate Prices Jump London homeowners gained an average 76,000 pounds ($150,000) on the value of their property in the past year, triple the median salary, as U.K. house prices rose the most since 2003, the country's biggest property Web site said. blmbgr

Melbourne Qindex 06:41 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : The normal trading range of my monthly cycle is 226.74 - 239.49. As shown in the expansion series of (230.99 - 239.49), the market is tackling the barrier at 237.37 // 237.90. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through 235.24.

madrid mm 06:06 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

G7 Washington statement on FX unchanged, warnings of carry trades outside of formal G7 communique.

IMFC says China plans to speed reform to reduce imbalances. Global economy on course for solid growth.

US Trsy Henry Paulson says despite slowdown in late 2006, he expects economy to rebound to 3% in 2007 end. US is opposed to trade protectionism.

MoF Koji Omi says G7 did not say JPY is a problem as it is more due to EUR strength given that EUR has strengthened against JPY and JPY has risen against USD since last G7.

French Finmin Thierry Breton says euro is strong, vigilance needed. Happy to hear US Trsy Paulson reiterating strong USD policy. No rise of inflation in France.

Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan said positive developments in the global economy would provide a cushion for the U.S., according participants of a Nomura Research Institute Ltd. forum in Tokyo today. He said he wasn't particularly worried about subprime-mortgage defaults in the U.S. as they represent a small portion of the economy. Subprime mortgages are a risk, but not high percentage one. - BBG

ECB Pres Jean Claude Trichet says eurozone interest rates moderate. Regarding JPY, says fundamentals are good in Japan and FX markets should take note of that.

BdF Noyer says all G7 agree that Essen FX statement is valid, seeking stronger USD, JPY to reflect fundamentals.

Russia's Dep MoF Storchak, in Reuters, says RUB rise to continue. Further FX diversification "depends" on USD move.

Sweden's government expects larger interest rate increases to 4.5% next year than Riksbank's forecast - TT news -BBG

Choppy Monday morning post Washington G7 meeting, where G7 official silence on high EUR/JPY; JPY, CHF carry trades provided JPY shorts the boost to push Cross/JPY higher across the board.

EUR/JPY gapped at its Monday opening to 161.90 from Friday's 161.35, and gradually hit all time highs of 162.43 on G7 silence on FX, while USD/JPY hit 7 week highs of 119.72, hitting some stoploss above 119.50-60 on back of EUR/JPY buying.

EUR/USD hit fresh almost 28-month highs of 1.3578, its highest level since January 3 2005 highs of 1.3580, just ahead of its Dec 31 2004 highs of 1.3661 and its all time highs of 1.3667 on Dec 30 2004.

EUR/USD then dipped on good options related selling ahead of 1.3600 handle, with talks of more options related seling ahead of 1.3650/ 1.3700 handle.

AUD/JPY soared to 10-yr highs 99.90, just short of 100, highest since May 1997, but capped ahead of good options related, Japanese selling ahead of the key 100 options, before dipping down to 99.30-35.

NZD/JPY soared at almost 17- yr highs of 88.65 on resumption of carry trades, as hedge funds bought Kiwi and Aussie, pushing Kiwi to its highest level in 2 years at 0.7413, while Aussie at fresh 17 year highs of 0.8359, before coming off on profit-taking sales from US investment houses, Swiss and Japanese names.

Cross/JPY then sold down on CNY reval rumours as US Trsy Paulson will meet Chinese officials today.

It then recovered, with UK/ German names buying USD/JPY, Russians buying GBP/JPY again. GBP/USD hit fresh 3-m highs 1.9895, eye Jan 14-yr 4 m highs 1.9917, b4 2.00.

EUR/SEK lower on Gov forecast of more rate hikes.

Nikkei +297pts or 1.71% at 17,661 on weak JPY. JGBs lower on back of weaker US Treasuries, 10-yr yield +0.040% 1.700%

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.99/119.72, EUR/USD 1.3536/1.3578, GBP/USD 1.9830/1.9895, USD/CHF 1.2127/1.2145, AUD/USD 0.8314/0.8359, NZD/USD 0.7375/0.7413.

madrid mm 05:47 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
gmt
12:45 USD Fed's Plosser speaks
13:45 USD Fed's Fisher speaks

madrid mm 05:44 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

Well well well . Again i missed all the action. I really need to start trading this Asian session 8-)

Auckland peat 04:27 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
My fibonacci extensions collude at 99.6 and 100.23 on AUD/JPY - being :
1/ the 261% of Jun 2006 low and Aug 2006 high = 100.23;
and ,
2/ the 261% of 5th Mar 2007 low to 12th March 2007 high = 99.6
not to mention 12 green candles ! (sittin on a wall)


Malmo, 04:27 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
censored - Learn More Earn More
Like many people I am sure you are interested to know more about Forex trading. To put it bluntly Forex trading can be either one the best ways to make or lose LOTS of money. Only those who take the Forex market seriously will be able to make money with it in the long term.
www dot freewebs dot com slash censored

Malmo, 04:26 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
censored - Learn More Earn More
Like many people I am sure you are interested to know more about Forex trading. To put it bluntly Forex trading can be either one the best ways to make or lose LOTS of money. Only those who take the Forex market seriously will be able to make money with it in the long term.
www dot freewebs dot com / censored

Malmo, 04:25 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
censored - Learn More Earn More
Like many people I am sure you are interested to know more about Forex trading. To put it bluntly Forex trading can be either one the best ways to make or lose LOTS of money. Only those who take the Forex market seriously will be able to make money with it in the long term.
www. freewebs. com/ censored/

Malmo, 04:24 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
censored - Learn More Earn More
Like many people I am sure you are interested to know more about Forex trading. To put it bluntly Forex trading can be either one the best ways to make or lose LOTS of money. Only those who take the Forex market seriously will be able to make money with it in the long term.
http://www.freewebs.com/censored/

Syd 04:18 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   

Quote for today
No one dies a virgin, Life screws us all.

Syd 04:06 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 04:01 GMT fwiw, looking for a small dip and then to rise again but as we know the The best-laid plans of mice and men

hk ab 04:04 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
I think short dlr/cad or cad crosses are not a bad idea at the moment.

hk ab 04:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
syd, what's your view on current aud? I think this 100 aud/jpy reads like an omen.....

Syd 03:53 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
China's FX reserves to grow less rapidly later this year given slowdown in overseas IPOs, increase in capital outflows under QDII, Citigroup says in research note; adds, PBOC likely to let CNY rise faster to reduce export growth, which would help contain growth of FX reserves; tips CNY gain of 6.5% for rest of year, vs USD. Still, even less-rapid rise in FX reserves in coming months still has sizable expansionary impact on domestic liquidity, Citigroup says, so China may launch one more 27bp rate hike, 2 more 50bp RRR hikes later in 2007. FX reserves $1.202 trillion end-March, +37% on-year
Citi

hk ab 03:30 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
with dlr/cad reluctance to go above 1.1410, the weakness of usd has a long way to go.

Syd 03:17 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
ECB To Hike In Jun, Then On Hold Till '08 - BOA

Another ECB rate hike after an anticipated rate hike in June within this year unlikely, says Bank of America economist and strategist Tomoko Fujii. "We expect the ECB to keep a wait-and-see stance after a rate hike in June and don't expect the strong euro to last." ECB president Trichet announced possible rate hikes in June but has made no hints of moves thereafter. "As the U.S. economic slowdown and the effect of the strong euro must be assessed further, we expect the ECB to keep rates at 4% before another two rate hikes by 0.25% at the beginning of 2008," she adds.

ABHA FXS 03:04 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
short gbpjpy 237.10 stop 237.40 t 234.75/233.70

USA Zeus 02:29 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Professor- thx for that! Saw it in the mag this w/e.
Can only imagine the call from Amaranth to that 33 yr old Texan- "Umm Houston...we have a problem"

Mtl JP 02:25 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 20:34 / I did not realize the Commission releases updated numbers on Fridays.

Syd 02:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
China Govt Bonds Down; RRR Hike Effective Today
China government bond index down at 111.57, vs 111.58 previous close, weighed by psychological impact of PBOC's latest RRR hike effective today, says Shanghai Securities Wang Yingfeng; but limited downside tipped as banks have already prepared cash for RRR hike in past 2 weeks. Also, bond prices could gain support from PBOC Vice Governor Wu's comment that credit growth will slow given government's recent tightening measures, which may ease concerns over more macroeconomic controls.
dj

CANBERRA JD 01:56 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Looking at aud/usd again this week. Time for a correction? Seems the aussie and asian markets dont have a headstart gun ready for today. So it will be based purely on the USD for today. I closed my long positions and want to go short? Suggestions?

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:15 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Zeus, this one's for you:

Arnold (for those who didn't know, he was on the other side of the Brian Hunter bet) declined to comment on our income estimates, as did Centaurus’s Perkins, though Perkins shared his views on why a trading bounty is such a beautiful thing. “You ask a big CEO what he makes, and it’s a huge number, but it’s all tied up in stock and options. Traders get paid in cash. It’s liquid. It’s real. You can go, ‘Here, look,’ and slap someone across the face with it.”

USA Zeus 01:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Looks like a target week to shake out positions

USA Zeus 00:59 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Big earnings week in the US equity markets.

USA Zeus 00:59 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
oops- rangey = rangy

Syd 00:58 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Profit warnings surge
MORE than 100 UK companies issued profit warnings in the first quarter of the year, the first time in six years that the total for the period has reached three figures.

Worst hit were retailers, which gave 18 warnings over the period. Companies listed on AIM, the lightly regulated junior London stock market, made 63.


http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/retailing/article1654226.ece

USA Zeus 00:58 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Looks as if GBP/USD could be a bit rangey today.

Syd 00:50 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
NZD To Weaken in 2H07 As Rates Peak - GSJBW

Likely sharp slowing in NZ economy in response to high interest rates, challenging current account deficit, fundamental overvaluation point to "notable NZD weakening" in 2H07, says Goldman Sachs JB Were economist Shamubeel Eaqub; says NZD's renewed strength, helped by carry trade appetite, RBNZ tightening leads to expectation of OCR rise to 7.75% end of April, and policy rates at 8% in June "cannot be ruled out." But while 7.75% would find NZD/USD support around 0.7400-0.7500, expectation 7.75% is peak would mean interest rate support fades, NZD/USD trades lower, with forecast for 0.7000 in 3 months, 0.6900 in 6 months, 0.6000 in 12 months.

Syd 00:41 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
PBOC Wu: China's Credit Growth To Slow Further - Report


SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Credit growth in China will decelerate following the government's recent tightening measures, People's Bank of China Deputy Gov. Wu Xiaoling said in a Xinhua News Agency report late Sunday.

In the report, Wu also attributed the rapid growth of China's foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter this year to the country's huge trade surplus, companies exchanging funds raised overseas into yuan, and forex swaps between the central bank and commercial banks.

China's broadest measure of money supply, M2, was up 17.27% at the end of March from the same period a year earlier, slower than the 17.8% rise at the end of February. The country's forex reserves rose to $1.202 trillion at the end of March, up 37% from a year earlier.

Lahore FM 00:37 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 00:01 GMT April 16, 2007
thanx Syd and Caba,the theme is just starting to develop.gtgl.

Rye,NY et 00:31 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 00:07 GMT April 16, 2007
Thank you...Good Trades...

USA Zeus 00:31 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Carry trades- For a spooky contra-reaction as the sentiment could not be much more complacent.

USA Zeus 00:29 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Add to the list- the carry trades..........

USA Zeus 00:26 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Well It does not look like the anti-USD sentiment could get much worse- Looks like a contra-spooky surprise coming...

USA Zeus 00:23 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Professor- And to think that 2 of the top 5 are from the great state of Texas...Hmmmmm LOL

shanghai bc 00:12 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   

The view from G-7 that Yuan level will solve the world trade imbalances is like an alcoholic saying he will cure himself once the pub nearby moves away to another street..Where did those smarties attend the economics course..

Syd 00:09 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Chap saying on CNBC asia when the wouldnt be short Yen here because it will reverse very violently and difficult to get out once it happens.

AZUSA 4x-ed 00:07 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
Rye,NY et 17:45 GMT April 15, 2007 || The Trader Monthly 100 (republished in the Guardian).

Disclaimer from the Trader Monthly - "You needed to have made $50 million in 2006 just to gain admission to this list. You needed $1 billion in annual comp to crack the Top 5. Behold capitalism’s ultimate honor roll — the fourth annual Trader Monthly 100."

btw - 5 of the top 10 are from NY, 3 from CT, 2 from TX

USA Zeus 00:06 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
ab- Happy day! Need USD/CAD to be lower- much lower for me to add at this time. Let's see....
-Z-

Syd 00:03 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: JPY Short Positions Rise; G7, Carry Trade

Philadelphia Caba 00:01 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
agree with FM, today's high on yen crosses can be high for some time ... watching also kiwi and aussie..gt to all!

Syd 00:00 GMT April 16, 2007 Reply   
DJ Making The Yuan Relevant In China Trade
Everyone knows the China trade surplus is a problem. The yuan, it seems, could increasingly be part of a viable solution.

Beijing is now saying the trade surplus reflects imbalances and may need some currency remedy, while U.S., Europe and other nations have long said the low yuan is the main reason for their large trade deficits with China.
Beijing certainly has a raft of factors to consider when setting currency policy, and the trade issue is just one of them. But if such a shift in its trade and production structure becomes more noticeable, it could suggest a greater imperative for action.

 




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