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Forex Forum Archive for 04/17/2007

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NJ, USA UKB 23:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
wow, talk about learning a life lesson in trading, i just took the biggest loss i hope i ever take in my trading career, so many things i did wrong which i now know, have many of you guys who have been trading a while make these big blunders also and recover from them?

Syd 23:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY now off highs, may fall to 161.00 if stop-sell orders around 161.20 triggered, says Tokyo trader; "it's likely that players, who think that the current level of the euro/yen is too high, may start to sell to lock in profits, and trigger the stop-sell orders." But piled-up buy orders around 161.00 from Japan importers, investors, will likely support pair.

Syd 23:52 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ likely concerned about strong non-tradables inflation number, housing contribution to 1Q CPI, says ASB Bank Chief Economist Nick Tuffley, adding however, that ASB still of view it will keep rates unchanged at OCR review next week - but only just; says though headline CPI number ahead of RBNZ forecasts, it won't be of much concern as partly due to petrol prices, while other tightening has been delivered; "monetary conditions have tightened very substantially since the last MPS, particularly with mortgage rates jumping quite a lot and also the exchange rate lifting markedly" to touch new post-float high this morning. Expects stern statement from RBNZ but thinks it has time to wait with this rate decision

Auckland peat 23:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I've stopped shorting things that are longing. seems obvious now lol. Yes there may be corrections soon but they will only be that huh. Appreciate your posts oilman.

London jas 23:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
along = alone

London jas 23:48 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:41 GMT April 17, 2007

You are not along Dallas GEP - pretty annoyed myself ............

Dallas GEP 23:41 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Closing 2.0058 GBP short for a small loss. Eur/gbp longs still working. Some eur/chf shorts still working from 1.6420. Pretty disgusted currently.

Monaco Oil man 23:39 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Talk about path of least resistance..

USA BAY 23:24 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Any comments on aud/usd 8495. tia

USA BAY 23:02 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
YEP, 75 in nzd/usd, 90 in nzd/jpy.

Dallas GEP 23:01 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
NOW LONG KIWI , stop 7420 taget 7500

hk ab 23:00 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
NJ, USA UKB 22:48 GMT April 17, 2007
kiwi comes in at .5%, worse than expected, huge quick drop off to .7420 and quick bounce back to .7445, should signal a short in the kiwi



No, that should signal LONG in kiwi for price action....now .75 no doubt.

USA BAY 22:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
There is no stopping kiwi

Dallas GEP 22:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
And THERE she goes!!! LOL stopped at 7480

Dallas GEP 22:58 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Well as usual the market will decide ultimately . There certainly are some additional LONGS in the market now . Whether or not they are absorbed by the shorters will be decided shortly IMO since we are again at the daily high

Gen dk 22:56 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

NJ, USA UKB 22:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
data is not kiwi negative, the number itself is good number, but it was less than forecasted, that is why the negative sentiment

USA BAY 22:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Is this data really kiwi negative. Seems not too bad?

NJ, USA UKB 22:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
consensus was .6 but came in at .5, thats why its falling, it is nzd negative due to worse than expected data

Syd 22:49 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD Rises/Falls To 0.7430 From 0.7450 Pre-1Q CPI

Dallas GEP 22:48 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Well Price Index being UP should be NZD negative unless I am reading this completely wrong

NJ, USA UKB 22:48 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
kiwi comes in at .5%, worse than expected, huge quick drop off to .7420 and quick bounce back to .7445, should signal a short in the kiwi

dc CB 22:48 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
If you got some time...an interesting story on foreclosed properties. the current version of "it's not my problem"
read or download to listen

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/shows/2007/04/17/PM200704174.html?refid=0


Philadelphia Caba 22:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
NZ ECON: Q1 CPI Up 0.5%]Last minus 0.2%, median market plus 0.6%censored

Syd 22:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
NZ 1Q Consumer Price Index +0.5% Vs 4Q; Consensus +0.6%
NZ 1Q Consumer Price Index +2.5% On Yr; Consensus +2.6%

Austin GW 22:40 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Transmittion = Transmission :)

Austin GW 22:38 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus,
Transmittion received. Thank you.

Syd 22:35 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The Short View: Overvalued pound
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/eb3d6f88-ed0a-11db-9520-000b5df10621.html

Dallas GEP 22:28 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Well CABA that NZD CPI may short term determine the immediate direction of KIWI.

Atlanta South 22:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
It is NOT NICE to question the KING & has decisions as he is
the KING.

NJ, USA UKB 22:11 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
its surprising that people justify their trades here, as long as you are profitable, why justify? i love the knowledge you guys have though, its awesome to see the views

Dallas GEP 22:10 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
TEXASBP ... currently 7480

Austin GW 22:08 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Long $/CAD with stop below 1280.
This 1300 level is 61.8 of the 1.0927 - 1.1875.

Short term trade against the trend, but that's why we have stops in place.

Syd 22:05 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
FW CS 21:44 GMT
Totally agree with your view , with Europe and UK hiking rates and pushing their economies into slower growth , hearing 50bp hike not out of the question and looking for possible top at 6% . While the US housing market already feeling the pain of higher rates its only just started to affect Europe and UK , that and the election to contend with a dangerous cocktail

Tallinn viies 22:01 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
good evening,
another day ahead where short side of the euro could burn the fingers. In my most optimistic view we could see 1,3660-65 today. on the downside 1,3480-85 quite enough.
good night

Monaco Oil man 21:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 21:49 GMT April 17, 2007


Though you are quite right, just look at % of account under 500K long USD , the proportions are Gigantic.

texasbp 21:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
caba:

any view on nzd?

Philadelphia Caba 21:57 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
nzd CPI in 45 min ..

texasbp 21:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gep:

whats your stop on kiwi short?

RIC fxq 21:49 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I am not attacking oil man, just questioning why you make sweeping judgements and pronouncements such as "everyone is long USD". As far as that goes I will ignore repsonding your posts so as not to offend your sensibility.

FW CS 21:44 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:45 GMT April 17, 2007
One things for sure a bailout by the Fed will be very very expensive and add even more $ to the system which long term is inflationary. But short term loans defaulting and dissapearing from the system can actually be deflationary but only very short term

USA Zeus 21:38 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Oops one more important post-

Bodrum OEE- Hello friend. Here we are on another surge to thin out on some more GBP/USD longs from the trend reversal position we built from 1.9591 the other day.

Ok at the end of this surge should have 30% remaining after this to slice out on additional surges or reversal whichever comes first.

Cheers!

USA BAY 21:36 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

TEMPTED to short kiwi, but hmmmmmmmm, still feel some upside left. Anyway good luck with your shorts.

Monaco Oil man 21:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
That's a scalp btw, on gbp...A "trendy" scalp.

Monaco Oil man 21:30 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Added $.CAD to existing shorts at 1.1308 , SL 1.1522.

The add right here does bring my average down , but , with some luck the market does not clean the place out before the next move down.
1.00 still target.

Also just bought more gbp$ at 2.0078.

gl gt

Syd 21:29 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Bank of England's King to write a letter to Chancellor Brown, explaining why inflation has breached its target range. In any case, the pound quickly rallied to its highest level since 1992, and is within striking range of its highest levels since 1981. The last two times the pound breached the 2.0000 barrier, back in 1992 and also in 1991, it quickly reversed direction and made a sharp decline of least 40 big figures in four months (in 1991) and 60 big figures in five months (in 1992).
Are we in a similar cyclical position now? Most likely, yes. Although we expect some further dollar selling pressure - and Sterling strength - into next week, this is the most likely time for a significant peak to form. The pound should make some further gains in the next several days, but after that we expect a strong reversal and a sustained decline. We should once again look at 2.0000 as a good area to sell pounds, even though there should be a week of pain first. For longer-term players, start getting short around these levels. FXC

GVI john 21:27 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 21:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3564	119.93	1.2089	2.0060	1.1298	0.8362	161.32
High	1.3595	119.82	1.2151	2.0075	1.1343	0.8385	162.17
Low	1.3525	118.82	1.2064	1.9883	1.1289	0.8316	161.22
04/17/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/17/2007					
5 day 	1.3510	119.45	1.2147	1.9871	1.1348	0.8309	161.11
10 day	1.3450	119.24	1.2175	1.9780	1.1433	0.8251	160.23
20 day 	1.3394	118.57	1.2166	1.9727	1.1507	0.8170	158.75
50 day 	1.3250	118.70	1.2238	1.9577	1.1630	0.7977	157.25
100 day	1.3164	118.92	1.2264	1.9593	1.1647	0.7905	156.53
200 day	1.2957	118.01	1.2344	1.9229	1.1454	0.7756	152.93
							

Monaco Oil man 21:20 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Back when i long'd those guys , I actually took a PUT AUD/USD , as i felt the trend was quite uncertain...

Right now , looking back , i thought my entries were "high" , 7200 area...Now we're at 84..

When is ozi going to meet parity?1.5 years or less is the question.

Monaco Oil man 21:18 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
*When i met them , not him

Dallas GEP 21:17 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Took some additional shorts on KIWI at 7452...target 7260.

Monaco Oil man 21:17 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 21:03 GMT April 17, 2007

I m not changing views minute per minute , nor am i trading on minute charts ...I trade on weekly charts..

Anyways of course i have long'd the US$ since 2002...However I have swapped the accounts from US$ to a basket in 2002(AUD , NZD, EUR , GBP, Rubble , there is a post in the archives about it).

BTW fxq , your antipathies towards me seem totally displaced and have nothing to do with trading?
It doesn't take me 5 minutes to post, and you will "get on me" azap , on every post, in ANY direction.

I used to fight on this forum with 2 persons , they were quite aggressive , and so am i...
When i met him , we became best friends..
Maybe we should go to a dinner..Where's RIC?

USA Zeus 21:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Yes there are various entry techniques for this and that. More combinations than there are traders perhaps.

Also, it is easy to think of extremes once at an extreme i.e if EUR/USD falls into the mid 1.20's we can see 1.15 as a possibility just as 1.35 is a possibility once 1.30 is seen etc.

Maybe there were those that were USD positive last week but now are USD bearish- its all cyclical IMO. Last year my best trades were shorting gold and oil at their peaks when gold was sure to go to 1000 and oil 100 as their next marker.
At times trends reverse when least expected.

One great thing about the high probability scalp trade is that a trader can generate performance while the low probability trend trades grind teeth out of traders i.e. last summer.

Mtl JP- Thx for your great eagle eye observations

Ok- enough from me- off to get some Zzzzzz's
Happy day all!

Lahore FM 21:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
downside looking increasingly constricted for eurusd and gbpusd.long on both.

USA BAY 21:10 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
terribily sorry for the typing error

should read "monaco oil man"

Oil Man pardon me for the error

Mtl JP 21:08 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - Bald Eagle/Spotted Owl pilot - the Loon flew in 1.1288 - 1.1327 range today. Unlikely to fly higher unless >1.1350. Me waiting with offers around 1.134ish for a new dive 'n straff run to unload more bombs on the 1.127x bridge before UP.

AZUSA 4x-ed 21:05 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 20:58 GMT April 17, 2007 || Every reversal needs a good pep-talk... in fact, it's part of the religious ceremony. After the sacrificial offerings, we may just see a few committed traders take some action.

USA BAY 21:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
MONACO OIL MAN,

Nobody is going long gbp/usd, but I doubt many are shorting gbp/usd too, also aud/usd, nzd/usd.

RIC fxq 21:03 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
c'mon oil man, how many posts have you seen suggesting going long USDCAD or USDCHF or USDJPY or EURUSD or .... Most if not all I see are buying any and every cross vs USD.

Some of us just do our trading without running a minute by minute, play by play account of our activity or opinions.

Atlanta South 21:03 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil Man
Ref 20:50/I agree 100% ref trend trading. I too have been
tempted to short GBP/USD @ these lofty levels, but I have
learned better the hard way, so I resist that temptation &
instead give in to other temptations. I have followed your views & comments from the time I joined this forum & find
them to be spot on & to the point. Just have one request
though.......stick with Monaco Oil Man. The first OIL MAN
was the best. Not meaning to offend, but just my views.
Tks for your post & gt.

NJ, USA UKB 21:03 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
i'm short kiwi at 7350

USA BAY 21:02 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

As I mentioned to you yesterday, 7440/7450 supposed to be a significant resistance for kiwi, a short may work, but looking at usd, I don't think technicals work here.

Monaco Oil man 20:58 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 20:54 GMT April 17, 2007

Are you reading the posted positions?

I don't see 1 guy going long GBP$ here...how can you say no one sees $ going up?EVERYONE here is long us$ it seems.

USA Zeus 20:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
pardon my typos

Monaco Oil man 20:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus , definitely , i m not saying, i'm not scalping...However scalps for me goes like :
If (WeeklyBuyTrend = 1 ) DailyBuyScalp = 1
If (WeeklySellTrend = 1 ) DailySellScalp = 1

In trend situation , and when vol is above a certain level , i just go in trend scalps..when vol is low, then no probs both ways...It filters a lot..But then it's what i want..
cheers

----

ref the post of 9920 for 1.26..

UAE Oil man 10:40 GMT January 6, 2003
First 1.075x �
Then 1.0450
Then 1.16+
1.12
1.26
the coccoon is ready to mature!

Dallas GEP 20:54 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Interesting action on KIWI presently. Sellers around 7450 and buyers around 7436 providing some tight range trading. That battle short term probably will be won according to IF we see any dollar buying sentiment across the board. Seems the majority here feel the dollar will never long again LOL

Atlanta South 20:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS
Tks for that last post. I am now seeing signs of it moving up
somewhat, but not sure. This could be just some pullback
before more down. Flat for me @ this time. No method is
ever 100%, so when in doubt I stay out. Your views
are always appreciated & respected. TKS & gt.

jkt-aye 20:52 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
surely i miss Gecko as the goose goes ...

USA Zeus 20:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 20:39 GMT April 17, 2007
Oil man
Again- glad to see that you scalp and trend trade. My preferance for alpha as well. Some of the best trend traders of all time supplemented their performance heavily with scalps i.e. Richard Dennis (60% scalps) etc

Cheers!

Monaco Oil man 20:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
You are predicting a trend change, i m just looking for continuation of the cycle..
If the trend change happens, then fine, i'll be stopped..Trend's been a good cash machine since my 2002 post of LONG EUR .9920 for 1.26..We're now at 1.35..

GBP$ will NOT crash at 2.000 , cause it crashed years ago right there...The situation is completely different..

Hyper-Inflation next(Read HyperInflation Post , few month ago), who wants some.

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:48 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP, only enough to give the Fed some room... lol

NJ, USA UKB 20:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
bay is right, all the diff. types work for those who know how to use them right, just use what works best for you

Mtl JP 20:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Communist do-gooder barbarians now past the gate:

Fannie, Freddie Creating New Home Loans - AP on Forbes

legislation, bailout, help... 30yr => 40 yr mortgage albatros

Monaco Oil man 20:44 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Not saying money can't be made counter trading , but again like i said to purk re EY , back at 145//150 Area, you can just long it and sleep for 185.

USA BAY 20:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Anyway regardless of what type of trader you are, at the end of the day what matters is if you make or lose pips. gt/gl

NJ, USA UKB 20:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gbp fell every time at 2 and fell violently, its the theor that the market is cyclical, not linear, a good trader looks at history and previous reactions to prices, not just blindly go, oh up, lemme go up, oh down, lemme go down

Monaco Oil man 20:39 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
It's one thing to think of yourself as a trend trader, it's different to be one..
If your first idea when you see GBP at 2.000 is to sell it..Then you are definitely not a trend trader, but a counter trend scalper (scalper cause by tom prices should be higher, so u have to be fast on the in/out)..

Rye,NY et 20:37 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...in terms of Trendline Analysis...These levels are valid for Wed. April 18:
T/L Supp 13429.3
38.2 13549.4
50 13586.5
61.8 13623.6
76.4 13669.5* High
T/L Res. 13743.7
GL/GT...

USA Zeus 20:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 20:30 GMT April 17, 2007
Ah Professor-LOL! Thx for that timely humor. Me thinks that many will get whipped getting in late on what appears to be the gravy train. ;-)


Monaco Oil man 20:28 GMT April 17, 2007
Oil Man- I think it is not that there are two different types of traders here but that there are two common types of trades. Glad to see that you and I both take those types of trades when our systems warrant. GT to you sir!

USA BAY 20:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
correction *** should read, can't categorize****

NJ, USA UKB 20:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
the problem comes in when there is a trend and you use range trading

USA BAY 20:32 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
MONACO OIL MAN,

I have to disagree with you, you can categorize any trader into one absolute category. Every trader has both the characteristics, follow the trend and try to find the top when something is ridiculuosly high based on technical point of view.

NJ, USA UKB 20:32 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
oil man, just so u know its called range trading, finding tops and bottoms, a lot of professional traders use it

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:30 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Z, tell the Mrs. to buy Miracle Whip. Best way to get creamed ;-)

Monaco Oil man 20:28 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
This forum has 2 sorts of participants :

Traders and predictors..
-Traders follow the prices , they buy/sell and follow wherever prices want to go..
-predictors, try to find every top and bottom , going against every trends, they think they can actually move the market somehow..Or that the market obeys their indicators..

USA Zeus 20:28 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Was reflecting on my views now that we have seen the full afterburner effect-


USA Zeus 15:16 GMT April 10, 2007
Call it the Pelosi Power Effect (PPE) as EUR/USD streaks past the Stagnation mid point like an F-22 Raptor with full afterburners engaged-

USA Zeus 08:46 GMT November 9, 2006

”…See a Pelosi/Reid EUR/USD @ 1.32-36 possible whenever that may be.”

Now will she get ticked and cut off the jet fuel funding or will her madness fuel the fire???

USA Zeus 20:25 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 20:12 GMT April 17, 2007

Southy- Nice to see you here and thx for your views. Well as for the building blocks have been trying for two days now to get the 12 handle 60-70's to print for a big base builder to split the difference on my current 1.1352 cost. Was feeling confident that we'd see lower. Not sure what's next.
System still shows "build the tower" (and hope it doesn't lean over). Current srtat is to add for another 1-1 1/2 figures lower if seen as an all in for this allocation then hold the line for a stop about 1 fig below that. Either way let's see...
At this point the feel indicator says the whole world is against me here so either the cream comes or I get creamed. GT!
-Z-

Monaco Oil man 20:21 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Re-Reading my post..

And it was definitely true ,we couldn't say back then at 1.2870 , it was the bottom , even though i felt it would be...We can only say it now...at 1.35...

Question is where to from here ...
Should the US$ be bought?

I tried it 2 weeks ago , and lost a couple hundred pips, there was nothing to say buy the us$ back then , there's still nothing right now...So keep SHORT US $.
---

Cannes Oil man 14:31 GMT January 12, 2007
The market behaved like i said last night, we made a little low , and fell on chinese buys at 1.2870's..Sooner or later was bound to happen..Now have to see if there's a follow through, bringing us to 1.34...Though before E$ bulls rejoice there's a lot of work to do..Probably over 1.3050 before we can point to a bottom, though big size bids usually put a floor.
gl gt
Cannes Oil man 02:05 GMT January 11, 2007
Ab, just need to be in the right direction and increase leverage when it goes the right way..
E$ is ready to bottom , however if not here , and 1.29 gets broken the next area is 1.2720...However we could be bottoming here, with the next target at 1.3487.
A lot of signs are here :

-CHF looking to strenghten.
-YEN hike coming in soon...The watch is ticking and it will change something in participants bias.
-CB's and major's are STILL looking to long E$ , key is to know if this is the right area , or it is 1.2720.
-Gold 600 good support.
-Oil down majorly.
-My book talking.
gl gt

USA BAY 20:21 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP,

YES, agree with you on that 2.02/2.04 range. thanks.


____________________________________________________

aud/usd seems to be showing a significant top, but then again who dares to short it.

Mtl JP 20:17 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USABAY 20:12 / still valid imo:
Mtl JP 15:48 GMT April 17, 2007
Flip 15:40 / cable: IF it keeps >2.0020 => 2.040ish trgt.

USA Zeus 20:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Smell indicator says that GBP/USD 2.0 is quite likely to be tested as it is the perfect place to drop and stop shop.

RIC fxq 20:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 20:04 GMT

possibly/probaBLY CTA/momentum funds using Chi IMM globex trades to add/open new possies is my guess.

USA BAY 20:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
MTL JP,

Do you think there is more upside for cable beyond this point maybe 2.02, then down. tia

Atlanta South 20:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus/
If you are still on the scene do see $/CAD is @ the bottom
of this move, or is there more space before we hit the floor?
I would really like to go the building block route, but I think
we are nearing a bottom so I will wait & see. Meanwhile I
did TP on the 2 lots from 1349. TP @ 1293. For what its worth I'm still getting a stay short signal, but it is a fading
signal. Long could be up next. Gt

Mtl JP 20:10 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
JC / cable, while above 2.002ish (now S upport), keeps its bid.

fairfield JC 20:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
What is with the cable testing highs this late in the day? That is unusual if you ask me. Am I missing something yet again?

fairfield JC 20:00 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Well I like being on the other side of the boat as well to say the least.

USA Zeus 19:54 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 19:47 GMT April 17, 2007

You are correct. Consider it a hedge against the global view. (no pun intended- well maybe a little LOL)

Monaco Oil man 19:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The Loonie is quite related to commodity prices , thus it's name "com-dol" , along OZI etc..

fairfield JC 19:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Doesnt the Loonie get stronger with higher oil prices? And the A/$ get stronger with higher gold prices? If that is the case than teh Loonie should get stronger heading into the summer time with higher gas prices as well as teh tensions with Iran?

Am I missing somthing?

Mtl JP 19:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
nh / When we fall in love with freedom again, rather than with big government and war as we are now, will gold standard re-appear on radar of reality. We could shut the FED down and cease to pay attention to what some FED Chairman wants.

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:37 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
maybe it's the opposite:
- Jap importers need to buy Yen from repatriation -
so they have Bids on top..

- exporters want cheap Yen and they have offers on the bottom - say 118 ^^^
am I missing smtg here?

Livingston nh 19:35 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
JP - good idea - don't file and see if your lawyer takes your gold

USA Zeus 19:28 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 19:23 GMT April 17, 2007

Building long USD/CAD. Other trades are swing/scalp trades...GBP/USD, JPY pairs crude, and busy on stocks using the "hammer and "Anvil" technology during this earnings season. GL GT! :-)
-Z-

KL KL 19:27 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
ok out both audusd to pay for loss in gbpusd ....even steven and still looking to short but seems like gbpussd wants to go higher...ninja ready for spike now

Mtl JP 19:25 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
nh 19:08 / One could find out what the Inland Revenu's attitude is by trying the reverse: don't file for some time, accumulate some Gold and wait for the IRS to come knocking. See if they roll up their nose at your Gold holding. Find out real fast whether it is money or not.

fairfield JC 19:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Are you building long or short? I think that I remember you being in short. So if that is the case then, I am with you on that one and I hope for our sake that it continues of course. Are you in on any others or what have you been looking at?

Syd 19:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
What a pity Sid James isn't around because they could make a movie about it - Carry On Up The Sharemarket - which would sum it up nicely.

Why the carry trade could drop us right in
If all this rings a bell, you may be thinking of the Swiss mortgage scandals of the '80s when what seemed a ridiculously cheap loan turned out to be a catastrophe because the dollar collapsed. Paying only 4 or 5 per cent interest on a mortgage seemed like a good idea, but owing 20 per cent more than you borrowed was something else. The resulting defaults almost ruined a bank.

USA Zeus 19:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Well the sell on blip AUD/USD worked today...

KL KL 19:20 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
short on audusd ...like watching weed die.....LOL

gbpusd already cover with +10 now again in short territory...in

2.0067...sl 77 ...lets see

moscow mike 19:18 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 06:24 GMT April 17, 2007
Only core left on e/j shorts from 162.00, sliced out more +40. Stops at b/e. Let the storm begin! LOL

moscow mike 06:07 GMT April 17, 2007
moscow mike 04:51 GMT April 17, 2007
Looks like euryen shorts could play a nice role with risk at 162.50
----------------
Smelling indicator works good today. Sliced half +30 for the smell not to vapour completely.
------------------------------------------>>

Sometimes under a proper conditions smell gets better over time.

USA Zeus 19:17 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 19:13 GMT April 17, 2007

Hi JC. Yep still trying to get some more USD/CAD building blocks but the stubborn bird has been nesting these last couple of days. Interesting since the day was wild elsewhere.
Perhaps the contra-crude movement has kept it nesting.
GT!

fairfield JC 19:13 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 18:44 GMT April 17, 2007

Are you still short the Loone? Also, does anyone remember the date of the crash in the chinese markets last month? Or whenever it was?

Livingston nh 19:08 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
FXQ - heh - I don't know what the attitude of the INland Revenue is but any nut job in the US that thinx gold is money can test it today - go to the local IRS office and plunk down gold to pay taxes due today - find out real fast whether it is money or not

Syd 19:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Business comment: Tories must ram home the point on Brown's betrayal This a man who is supposed to be a friend of the poor. Brown is in fact Robin Hood in reverse

The Netherlands Purk 19:01 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I am waiting for Sid Vicious to sign up with Crisses service. Maybe Sid can sniff up the sand from under his c...

I sense that loonie again is on the move here. It seems not to be able to pass 11310 anymore, copy of the 114's.
Well the rest is known...

RIC fxq 18:58 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Livingston nh 18:54

rut roh - do I hear jp heading this way? :)

Livingston nh 18:54 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Why would anybody care about too little gold in Treasury? You might as well store corn there

NJ, USA UKB 18:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
such low volatility, this is sad

Syd 18:49 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Fears over Treasury losing control of gold left in its vaults
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
17/04/2007
As Gordon Brown prepares for a grilling in the Commons over his fire-sale auction of Britain's gold at the bottom of the market, concern is mounting that the Treasury may have lost control over the small amount still left in its vaults
The real risk is that the Treasury has lent out the remainder of the gold. It is very important to know whether the bank's gold lending is on a secured basis," he said. The concern is that counter-parties could default in a crisis such as the LTCM-Ashanti affair in 1998.

LINK

Gen dk 18:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 18:44 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mr Bolling and I were in a contra battle with the NYMEX pits. Now Loon- do that thing- Bring the bling-bling!!

USA Hera 18:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:22 GMT April 17, 2007

you give $hit a bad name, after you ask the Swiss minister of finance to take contact with Jay to get your email address you also managed to give clowns a bad name. take my offer, get 70 horses and feel in heaven (sorry horses).

Toronto MRC 18:29 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Whats with the selloff in crude over the past hour?

CANBERRA JD 18:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Yeh I know.. Have been hedging for weeks now.. Market is trash... Making a few pips here a few pips there. But nothing solid.

Syd 18:19 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 18:09 GMT the Techs seem to be ignored for now with this drive for rates, the talk of the housing correction in the US is overblown taking over the deficit wories now as thats improving , seems they have to find a reaon to be bearish somewhere, but that will be overshadowed by the problems the UK and Europe housing markets will have once rates move higher ,

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:15 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
this is very dumb question but only for confidence:
Japanese Exporters lean on the Bid as they buy USDJPY

and Japanese Importers lean on the Offer as they sell USDJPY

however since Japan is Import oriented country - BOJ, Kampo, MIB all help the Exporters to push the USDJPY offer higher^^^
Say it's correct pls..

CANBERRA JD 18:09 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Morning Syd, Yes GBP is going to die, and quickly. My concern is though for the aud and euro at present. AUD is very over valued, and seems to be in topping mode on the later time frames. There are decent divergences on lower timeframes indicating that we could start an attempt at a move down. My boss told me to hedge at the high.. I have a short bias, and got into a bit of an arguement LOL.. Anyway.. I am all for a bounce in USD sentiment for now. Providing their housing data does get a little bit better over the coming weeks. We also could see the inevitable rate rise by the FED...

But for now, my thought is top on a/u e/u.. U/chf has bottomed also in my opinion but has a little bit of room.. So call me stupid :D

Syd 18:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Just a few of Labours cockups and he want to be PM. what a joke ...Say sorry on pensions, Brown told .Mr Brown had "acted with stealth", hitting 125,000 people's pensions, and urged him to apologise ..Brown lost £2bn selling UK's gold

The UK version of sub-prime
Guardian: Alarm over loans that can make debtors homeless
Borrowers struggling with personal loans and credit card debt are being pressured to take out consolidation loans that could result in the loss of their homes
Alarm over loans that can make debtors homeless
Peter Tutton, a social policy officer specialising in credit and debt for Citizens Advice, says: 'There are problems with secured consolidation loans - we're seeing lots of evidence that where people do get into [financial] trouble, they're being pushed into consolidation.'
Citizens Advice is conducting research on credit and debt, particularly relating to the housing market, that will be published in the summer. This, says Tutton, will name and shame lenders involved in such cases. The CCCS says its advisers are seeing a rise in the number of people struggling with loans secured against their homes. Nine times out of 10, a borrower should not convert unsecured loans to secured ones, it adds.

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/cash/story/0,,2056845,00.html

hk ab 18:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
interested to see yen get much STRONGER when PAR is not shown up..... not to offend but an observation.

jkt-aye 18:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
leaving the goose here. enough for a pan of pizza. gtgl

The Netherlands Purk 18:02 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mr. ZEUS:

Dont want to spoil your mood here, but i got word that there are MIW looking in one type of dessert looking for a multiple shooting and bombing at what might appear to be a computer. On the harddisk where found copies with tel.nrs of a guy in Sandcity...

For the evening i want to see if loonie is a lagger or a bouncer. 11270 or 11320.

Avenel UKB 17:57 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
dublin, what do you think of a short in kiwi to 72

Dublin Flip 17:54 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
As an example Kiwi is 11.80% above it's 200 MA currently.

Dublin Flip 17:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
sorryShould read
2.5% above its 50 and 100 and less than 5% above it's 200day MA

Dublin Flip 17:52 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Despite the media the pound isn't rising so fast.
Its 2.5% above it's 100 and 200 day MA and less than 5% above it's 200day average. It's not uncommon for impulsive moves to move 10% (and less common times 15%) from the 200 Day MA - which like 100wk MA is used as a value line by many longer termers.

Syd 17:52 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Is the China effect over?Evan Davis | Small Change | 17 Apr 07, 01:28 PM A few thoughts on inflation.For the last few years, the biggest risk to the strong performance of UK economy has been inflation. It has seemed fairly tame, and even-higher oil prices in recent years did push it worryingly high. LINK

Syd 17:49 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 17:45 good mng All the worst nightmares have come back to haunt the UK Government, the housing market will be in a worse state than the US, they have let it run away too high too fast, a 50bp hike will be called for which isnt always GBP friendly especially at the cost of the economy.

Syd 17:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Whats the Two-Dollar Pound Hiding from the Markets?
by Adrian Ash
"With the Pound so strong, how come inflation is rising so fast...?"
By way of thank you, or so the Bank would have you believe, it has given the nation record price stability. It's tweaked interest rates and twiddled the knobs of monetary policy so deftly, the Bank has abolished the risk of runaway inflation, but also steered clear of the dreaded deflation, too.
LINK

CANBERRA JD 17:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
My bets are now on a/u and e/u short.. For a mid term trade. Create the summer range.. My prediction is for that range to be 0.79-0.8350 a/u and 1.2950-1.3650 e/u

I think we will start to head to the bottom of the range in the coming days.

Como Perrie 17:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CBs and Big Investments just did the big flows exchanges in a lovely schizolike manner. Just the accountants hour

Van jv 17:13 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 17:06
"" the nasdaq phase ''
Posibly after correction
notice Gold not up today

madrid mm 17:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Maybe all the big manufacturers in the world makes more money and profits trading currencies than their goods 8-) and the beauty of it all ? It does not really matter where you live anymore

hk ab 17:06 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, pt is, this bull can't be stopped without CB forces?
we are entering the nasdaq phase for carry.

RIC fxq 17:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:55 GMT

exactly my point jp, the US doesn't go it alone and does to accomodate another CB which makes the whole idea of the "strong dollar" mantra some much hot air. :)

HK Kevin 17:01 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:55 GMT, monthly chart say 164 will be traded this month.

hk ab 16:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
try a limbo buy 161.30.

Mtl JP 16:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fxq / I ntervention is probably increasingly a dangerous tool for the CBs, as they have nothing to sell other than their anxiety over percieved credility in them. Can u imagine if no-one (of consequence) showed up for their press-conferences ? ref nh 16:36 ALONE observation.

Now, if u and I colluded in the market on price action (could be price of headache pills, gasoline or 2x4s) and got caught, we be haulled off to prison, hahaha. BUT when CBs collude...

USA Zeus 16:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 16:37 GMT April 17, 2007

Doesn't pass the smell (SPJAST-see USA Zeus 05:53 GMT April 17, 20007) test? Don't feel bad if the ICBM (Indicative Contingent Backwardized Manipulation) signal failed.
CT Cris 17:27 GMT December 1, 2006
====
”..with my views..never lose.”


Ok -enough of that. Let's focus on what is in front of us instead of playing games to manipulate the past.
GT!

hk ab 16:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
any yen crosses bulls left? a/j, e/j, g/j.......cad/j?

RIC fxq 16:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 16:22 GMT

I can not remember when, perhaps in the 1980's sometime but generally Tsy does not intervene singularly most times on behalf of BoJ or other CB.

CT Cris 16:39 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 16:37 GMT April 17, 2007
======
my calls not for you.dont use them.

Perth Randall El 16:37 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:13 GMT April 17, 2007
======
"you have to understand strategy 3 .
strategy 3.
3. If the signal indicated that you sell @ point A and tp at X, and the market declines to point B which is more than half A-X and reverses up to point C.

In this case, you have to exit immediately if C breaks the level of point A and consider the trend changed and enter fast in the opposite direction (buy)provided that your entry should be confirmed by closing 3bars 5mins chart above or below your first entry point. If not, keep your sell position as shown in the chart.

=============================================
What a bunch of bull honkey!

First it was a buy signal when you said "usd.jpy 120 is coming" or were you selling to target 120?

Second what on earth are you mentioning A,B,C,X Where are those values in the signal posted.

Third- Shown in what chart?

Fourth- It is not April Fool's day- Did you devise this crapp after the fact?

Livingston nh 16:36 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
What parties would possibly wish to intervene in the market at these levels? US doesn't care so China doesn't care - ECB might care but against what, JPY or USD? (i.e., ECB sells EUR and buys WHAT?) - Canada, Japan, Australia ?? First WHY? Second ALONE - no way

CANBERRA JD 16:32 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Wasn't much extension today on the aud/usd. The divergences are in place, and I can see this being a real down mover in the next few weeks. However The high might not have been hit yet. With options expiring tomorrow around the 8400 mark.

USA Zeus 16:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
On another note- Filled up the all aluminum quattro stretch sedan yesterday for 6 pips. Been a while to see that marker.
The tail may very well wag the dog...
cheers

Mtl JP 16:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 16:16, interesting. Last time US intervened in the market: ______?

London NYAM 16:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Closed out USDJPY (from 119.42). Bank really took the mick this time and gave me 119.00 with 118.96 highest ask out there. I'm done with these jokers.
And its good night from me.

UK Alex 16:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
That last push lower in $/JPY was the rumor that Deputy Treasury Secretary (Kimmitt) was to speak and mention JPY in particular in his address...His released text has no mention of JPY at all....hence the spike higher a couple of minutes ago

RIC fxq 16:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Avenel UKB 16:05 GMT

further - FOMC/Fed doesn't not intervene directly only the Treasury - sometimes perhaps at Fed suggestion can intervene in ccy's. Technicality perhaps but factual.

USA Zeus 16:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 16:05 GMT April 17, 2007

Well the 10 is grand daddy's old classic. I like it because of the cannon-like punch. Otherwise my 12 is a Super Black Eagle II...

hk ab 16:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Alex, thanks so much that makes more sense to me....

CT Cris 16:13 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:59 GMT April 17, 2007
Perth Randall El 15:44 GMT//
======
you have to understand strategy 3 .
strategy 3.
3. If the signal indicated that you sell @ point A and tp at X, and the market declines to point B which is more than half A-X and reverses up to point C.

In this case, you have to exit immediately if C breaks the level of point A and consider the trend changed and enter fast in the opposite direction (buy)provided that your entry should be confirmed by closing 3bars 5mins chart above or below your first entry point. If not, keep your sell position as shown in the chart.

USA Zeus 16:09 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Ok guys thx for the nice words.
But please remember this is a building block process- not the std hellfire quick strike. Thus am building the position one building block at a time. In the end if it looks like that leaning tower in Pisa.. So caution must be used and adding slowly- easy does it. Currently positioned to add down to around 1.12 with staying power near 1.11 for this position. No adds for some time however. Targeting the 1.1270ish as a more than exponential double down then the last add would be a magnitude greater.
cheers

Makassar Alimin 16:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
stopped out on usdjpy long at 118.93

for usd in general, we could be seeing the beginning of a strong directional move this quarter before hitting ranging summer market

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:05 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
What’s good for the goose is good for the loon? Hmmm, interesting concept… question is, why the 10 gauge? Wouldn’t 12 be just as effective, but easier on the shoulder?

Avenel UKB 16:05 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
thanks for clarifying uk, i was confused about that

UK Alex 16:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 15:58 GMT// ab, Just to clarify - Plosser was talking about inflation not currency valuations.

"Right now I'm still worried about inflation," Plosser said.
If inflation doesn't moderate as the Fed is anticipating, the central bank "will have to think about what the appropriate action is," Plosser said.

Van/canada 16:02 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
zeus, I had to wonder if buying us/can was still your target and I see it is. That makes this newbie feel a bit easier. Crossing my fingers.
Lets not be shooting anything lets give the guns a rest guys.

RIC fxq 16:02 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:59 GMT

ditto for VA but thinking in terms of all the accumulated lead on the river/bay/whatever bottoms.

USA Zeus 16:01 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
oops guage = gauge

jkt-aye 16:00 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, i'm back. let's have some fun with the goose.

Mtl JP 16:00 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fxq 15:52, Not in my cookbook: seems like tastes/views vary: some sort of "cream" may add / cover over toxicity.

Avenel UKB 16:00 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
its from the commentary from my trading central, the trade desk commentary from my broker

USA Zeus 15:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 15:52 GMT April 17, 2007

LOL- Lead shot is illegal here. We use steel shot.
Ok- changing the 10 guage to full choke and heavy dram loads for next opportunity.

UK Alex 15:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 15:44 GMT// If it is any consolation, Cris will soon be losing his trading shirt too when the put it up for auction like the did Nick Leeson's.

hk ab 15:58 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Avenel UKB 15:42 GMT April 17, 2007
FED'S Plosser said that if price action continues, they will have to make a decision on whether intervention needs to happen, what are some outlooks on this possibility?



Any links?

EU theEUROqueen 15:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
happy day Bob!

still more to come ..be ready ..

happy trade

london ms 15:54 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
now that £$ has gone over 2 what 's the celing if thier is one
be intresting to see David Bloom from HSBC the next time he gets interviewed

RIC fxq 15:52 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:50 GMT

not to mention "lead poisoning" from shot - :)

Mtl JP 15:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, wild waterfowl can be toxic: too much mercury in the water

USA Zeus 15:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:40 GMT April 17, 2007

JP- Technically correct. But the geese have a flight plan over my house and besides one tastes a lot better with cream than the other. LOL
GT!

UK Alex 15:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Avenel UKB 15:42 GMT// They will raise rates to 5.5%. This is why they keep talking inflation up even though they know it is going to cool without any additional hikes being necessary.

Perth Randall El 15:44 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:33 GMT April 16, 2007
also I said 120.00 is coming for usd.jpy


Mr Kris- is usd.jpy 120 still coming or is type 2 tradin' more of a second coming? Bought a bunch on your word but am losing my shorts. Thanks a million!

London NYAM 15:43 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:07 GMT April 17, 2007
Wave on. Targets 118.60-80 first.

Avenel UKB 15:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
FED'S Plosser said that if price action continues, they will have to make a decision on whether intervention needs to happen, what are some outlooks on this possibility?

Mtl JP 15:40 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:33 / the bridge: 1.1276, fwiw.

ps / review of diff between Goose and Loon. Wrong identification -> wrong manual -> wrong flightpath.

UK Alex 15:37 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Another question we should ask is why did Mervyn King put himself in the embarassing position of having to explain why CPI was above target in an open letter to the Chancellor. Surely he can see a bigger picture developing where inflation will fall sooner rather than later.

Mtl JP 15:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 15:24 / (from my 11:01 December 15, 2005 EU's visualization of Inflation link)
according to EU, interest rates = "price" of money, rofl.

Avenel UKB 15:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
i agree with the 80 in a few months, do you see a 200 pips down to 72 before it makes its way back up though?

fairfield JC 15:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I would like GOD to tell us all what the censored is going on with all of the pairs. I hear this I hear that, it is quite entertaining. Ahhh well, keep the pips coming either long or short. I am a chicken to follow the trend. Enjoy!!!

UK Alex 15:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 15:23 GMT// Your original post was talking about GBP/USD and all I was saying is the market may be getting ahead of itself. Some of the recent contributions to inflation may prove to be highly transitory in nature and we could see quite a sharp snap back.

USA Zeus 15:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Crowded driving on the highway one direction but no one coming in the opposite lane- Is the bridge out ahead?

Monaco Oil man 15:31 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The NZD is at the first target posted at .6500 few months ago...

Back then people were screaming Oil man at 7440 New zealand will sink , can't support those rates , bla bla..We're at 7450 now, and will probably be at .8000 in a few months.

Avenel UKB 15:28 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
i wanna hear some thoughts on the direction of the nzd/usd

USA Zeus 15:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Me thinks "Shake 'em in then shake 'em out"-

USA Zeus 13:43 GMT April 16, 2007
Sense lots of contra-dollar complacency. Theme of the week could be "shakeout".

Monaco Oil man 15:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
No one buys or sells the euro because it's a GREAT , or non inflationary , or inflationary ccy...

It's being bought as a secondary queen only..

The market is and will be for quite some years , still :

The way of the DOLLAR.

Avenel UKB 15:25 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
i agree with oil man on his views, the dollar is not gonna all of a sudden make a great come back, but at this point i do see reversals to see if the market can sustain these levels, it will turn around for dollar first before it continues up against it

RIC fxq 15:24 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 15:18 GMT

to say inflation is of "NO CONCERN" to the EU, UK or any other country is absurd. Read the BoE or ECB minutes/staements and tell me they are not at all concerned about inflation.

Monaco Oil man 15:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:15 GMT April 17, 2007

This is EXACTLY what i am saying...The last few years , a LARGE number of people have made debts in low yielders and swapped to the US$ for the differential..They got CREAMED..

Mtl JP 15:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Alex 15:15 / Interest rate differentials are not as important as the efforts of policy-makers:
- "must ensure" price expectations will be "anchored." (BoC King) - Bank of Japan's Fukui saying 'very accommodative' monetary conditions to continue.

There was a w/end stab at what kind / when "Intervention"; use the Archive button.

USA Zeus 15:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Meanwhile I'd look at the USD all over for some action.

USA Zeus 15:20 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Ok- That's it! USD/CAD is all set for a nice snap back.

HK Kevin 15:19 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:59 GMT, how long will it take for this another 4k pips upmove of Cable?
Looking at monthly chart, the usd has weaken against Cable since 2001. If it's a continutation of the existin trend, I expect another 2k pips to go may be in only 3 months time. The market of next 3 months may go crazy.

Monaco Oil man 15:18 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Who here goes to the race track , gets the horse with 160/1 , and says , ok this one is going to win?

If you belong in THAT category of people , i can definitely understand , why my views are "extreme lalaland".

GENEVA DS 15:17 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
RIC

I think it is not fair to make comments like that for somebody , who has visions (MONACO Oil man...). It is very rare those days to find people, who can see more than 10 minutes ahead with their thinking. Thank you Monaco Oil man, I love your posts. this thinking might be extreme but what if it is right.... most dealers still have the old thinking, that we always will be in the same range.... good job... thank you Monace

USA Zeus 15:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Could this be the contra-USD capitulation?

Bodrum OEE 15:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain

Bahrain 1 hello. On a parallel to Zeus's Coke approach I would consider soya meat (in şiş kebap size). It may not be as tasty to some, however good when used in various soup stocks (I found) especially when cooked with green lentl, brown rice and vegetables. Considering the increase in the number of vegetarians, investing in soya might add to taste if successful. In case the GBP reversal (especailly against USD, CHF and JPY) takes place meanwhile, one could win again. I rather not highlight health as the fourth wave gain, to prevent controversy. Smiles and kind regards

UK Alex 15:15 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 15:08 GMT// Interest rate differentials are very important to speculators. Just ask Soros.

Monaco Oil man 15:15 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Just like in a class room , the last in the class shouldn't be expected to turn the first in the class , without some major SEEABLE changes...

The US$ will not turn into a major winner , after so long of being the worst looser..
We're talking about the guys who got creamed doing the interest plays via debt(loss from everything but the interest play..which is obviously not enough to pay for the 60% loss in the US$)...They aren't about to redo it...
Money will continue going OUT of the US$ for some years, if there's a catalyst that will change things, we will all see it...

RIC fxq 15:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 15:08

that is lalaland thinking in the extreme!

Monaco Oil man 15:08 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:06 GMT April 17, 2007

GBP , EURO , inflation , are of NO CONCERN..

Only the US$ is.

London NYAM 15:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Looking at a nice little 5 wave (1st of either 2 or 3 legs down) in USDJPY [119.28]. The current move from 119.05 should therefore be corrective with 119.35-55 capping. From there it should reverse to below the figure.

UK Alex 15:06 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:59 GMT// UK inflation was said to have spiked due to sterling priced oil being higher, so with lower crude and stronger pound, next month might not be so bad. However, all will depend on where the US economy is by then. Where will you be looking to buy dips from?

USA Zeus 15:05 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Not a whole lot of Geese flying yet. Perhaps they smell that shot waiting for them in the 10 guage...

USA Zeus 15:01 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Coca-Cola (with a smile) as it benefits from a weak USD. Part of how the Dow can perform well in this environment...

Monaco Oil man 14:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
We've had very small moves in the last 2 years , in terms of volatility increase, and trend..

Hopefully things are picking up , could see a 4K pips move without much of a retrace like 2002/2005..

Anyways doesn't hurt obviously go get into the trend, I Was saying yesterday, it's not too late to sell us$ ,result :
the trend is your friend.

USA Zeus 14:57 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Ok- Beam me up Scotty. Ready to buy USD/CAD if we can inch lower.

UK Alex 14:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Monaco Oil man 14:50 GMT// What interest rate differential are you basing that on?

Monaco Oil man 14:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
This is from GV-I ..

As for GBP$ , 2.4 comes as the next target.

Avenel UKB 14:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
also know, on a monthly chart, gbp/usd in the past 20 years has had extreme reversals everytime it has hit 2.000, granted 1992's reversal was spurred by George Soros (the man who broke the bank of england) but another violent reversal should be due here.

Avenel UKB 14:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
amazing rally in currency markets, of course euro and gbp but also aud and nzd, got short nzd at .7350 and right now still with 100 pip loss at .7450, this is 2 year highs and the next high has not reached since 1982, also perfect positioning for fibonacci, 68 weeks down and 42 weeks up, 68/42=.618. should be violent reversals happening in nzd/usd, limit at .7200 but .7000 very much in sight. also net long positions in this currency are at a record high according to bank of new zealand. lookout for at least a 200 pip reversal.

Monaco Oil man 14:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
As an update , we have broken the first critical levels , and are consolidating lower for the next move down.


Monaco Oil man 15:31 GMT April 10, 2007
Interesting , my monologue view on $/CAD is approaching the first critical level under it, we go to the New all time low :

Cannes Oil man 14:49 GMT February 23, 2007
Now this is interesting , cause here we are at 1.16, and i have the same exact indicators playing with one at 3416 while it was at 1789 in may 2004..It shows the upside volatility strength (when it goes down vol reverses to the downside , it's now doing so)..
It's hard not to think in terms of high and lows , cause once 1.14 breaks this on the weekly designates $/CAD coming up with a new all time lows coming in the months ahead.


06:54 GMT May 27, 2004

Thank you for your views, I will then share ours.
Our systematic approach on the $/CAD is currently to be shorting the $/CAD 1.37-1.39.
Ideally targetting low 1.2's.
On a technical analysis side, we note several trending indicators which possibly indicate further strenght in Canadian dollars.Some of this indicators are currently as bearish as $CAD 1.60,However signals do change (we were Long $cad from lower levels before the break 1.3870)and we'll stick to the value of the signal until our risk limits are hit (sorry if that is obvious.)
As for the fundamentals for the strenghtning of the Canadian dollar, I (personally) feel the surge in oil prices will be a big part of it.
---

AZUSA 4x-ed 14:20 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Going forward with the Flip idea... the most popular car in E. Europe is Ford Focus. Well ahead of Skoda, Renault, and Kia brands.

USA Zeus 14:20 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 13:52 GMT April 17, 2007


Thx for the kind words South. This is a different trade than what is usually posted. Instead of the hellfire laser guided missile strikes that are typically posted this is a contra-position building trade for the possible rebound. Adding into it slow and steady as a full allocation position- still taking all the usual strikes on the other pairs in the meanwhile. So building blocks are added as the CAD strengthens. In the end it will either look like that tower in pisa and may crumble- or it may be a thing of beauty. Time will tell. Let's see....

GL and GT as usual!
Time to play chicken with the crude pitty crowd in T minus 10

Syd 14:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Support for Labour plunges to lowest level in 20 yearsLabour's popularity among voters has plunged to its lowest level since Michael Foot was leader in the 1980s. Indeed, not since Labour was spearheaded by Mr Foot - who backed nuclear disarmament, nationalisation and the unions - has the party been so unpopular. censored

London Gooner 13:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Cable seems forming rising wedge on 15 minutes chart pointing to 2.0085 (with 2.0100 / 45 above as resistance area) there could be a reaction there as this pattern normally ends a move. 'Normally'.
The daily/4hour chanel is situated at 2.0115 area.
Good likely those levels will be seen and possibly hold to allow overbought conditions to recover.

Atlanta South 13:52 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
I am about ready to tp on this move, but my indicator
(method) is still giving a strong down signal with an occassional whip in the mix as with any method, but I
just don't 100% trust it @ this time as this pair has run
down some 215+ pips since I got the signal to get short.
I did miss the first 60% of this move. What are your views
on my position @ this time as I respect your views. Tks & gt.

Syd 13:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
News: Mortgage rejection misery intensifies
Tue, 17 Apr 07
Cautious lenders have rejected over 460,000 mortgage applicants in the past six months, according to a recent survey...
Reuters reports that over 463,000 people were refused a mortgage in the half-year to mid-March, with applicants aged 18-34 the worst affected, the research by financial comparison Web site MoneyExpert.com found.
With another interest rate rise widely anticipated next month, the number of rejected applications could mount.
Sean Gardner, chief executive of MoneyExpert.com, said:
"Affordability is the major issue in the mortgage market as recent reports of a drop in the number of first-time buyers demonstrate.

Risk aversion
He added: ”The fact that around 77,000 mortgage applications are being rejected a month means it is likely that it is not only first-timers who are being hit. Lenders, quite reasonably, do not want to take risks when there are pressures on how much people can afford."

Bahrain Bahrain1 13:30 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I'll be vegetarian from now, can't offered to buy sheesh kabab with cable at 2$.

Syd 13:30 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Swiss Economics Minister Doris Leuthard Tuesday said she wasn't concerned about the Swiss franc's current relative weakness against the euro. "We closely follow the situation, but we aren't concerned", Leuthard said at a business event in Zurich. She said the economics ministry was in contact with the Swiss National Bank over this matter.

hk ab 13:29 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
new limit short dlr/chf 1.21.

USA Zeus 13:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 12:51 GMT April 17, 2007
Still short $/CAD from last date & its plunging lower @ this time. Zeus it creme time.

South- Good job! The good shepherd giveth and taketh. Now if he were only to offer something in the 70's-80's I'll take it. Still no new action here...

London NYAM 13:25 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fxq// They don't call it the 'Beast' for nothing. Good luck Im still trying to find the zone for a retracement play.

KL KL 13:24 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
also in short audusd .8377 sl 87....all a probability ninja game


gl gt all

hong kong seek 13:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:12 GMT April 17, 2007
ths a lot

CT Cris 13:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Hera 11:09 GMT April 17, 2007
CT Cris 10:46 GMT April 17, 2007

are you a clown?
========
may be if you imagine that we are in a circus ,and you are the donkey there.

RIC fxq 13:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 13:21 GMT

rotflol but its true!

KL KL 13:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
ok join you GEP

Short gbpusd 2.058 sl 68...lets see

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:21 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The flip side is that 10 more boutiques are forced too shut down in Beverly Hills... soon to be occupied by sweat-shop, I mean nail shops owners.

RIC fxq 13:17 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:48 GMT

been in and out with a 10 pip loss and now have 12094 as the next level to attempt but with a broader stop this time.

Fools rush in .... ;)

Lahore FM 13:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Seek,it is looking overall bullish but i am looking for 1.9980.

Global-View AFX Special 13:09 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
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Dallas GEP 13:08 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Shorted gBP 2.0058 for 2.0000

Bodrum OEE 13:06 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Cape Town 08:47 GMT April 17, 2007


Thank you. That was an interesting technical study. I appreciate its value. Did you have similar ones on USD and GBP against JPY as well ? censored

hk ab 13:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
close some dlr/chf here.

Hong Kong BL 13:03 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The world's game is to sell the greenback on dips, nice move
on Cable. What's the projected height this week ?

Syd 12:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Fed Funds Futures Still See Fed On Hold
Near-term federal-funds futures are unchanged, despite the gains in other rate futures markets following the weaker-than-expected gain in core inflation last month. Market still sees FOMC keeping its rate on hold at 5.25% at its next two meetings.

The Netherlands Purk 12:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Well the loonie took the easy way and under influenza.. of the e/u and usd/chf...
Another nice question is, if we can do the nice trick in swissy again. I shall wait because day is not over yet. But i prefer a long when e/u trades 13612.
e/j is on its way to the 16220 zone again.
Loonie will burp a bit in my oppy and than visit the 11260-70. And now that it has broken 11290ish i only see 11310 as a high in the coming days.... Just 11365 can take that thought away.
Nice action!

Atlanta South 12:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Still short $/CAD from last date & its plunging lower @ this time. Zeus it creme time.

London NYAM 12:48 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
A break of 2.085 will be a 26 year high. Get your shoulder pads out girls, welcome back to the 1970s.

Atlanta South 12:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Nice move up now taking place on E/$ should hit 3600+. Any
view on this pair? Gt

JHB SRG 12:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Any opinions on USD/JPY ?

hong kong seek 12:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
FM--if u are around , pls share your view on GBP ? gl and gt

London NYAM 12:39 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fxq// close, but I think you will get another chance ;)

Syd 12:36 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Housing starts edged up by 0.8% to an annual rate of 1.518 mln in March from a downward revised 1.506 mln in Feb (had been 1.525 mln). In addition, permits also edged up 0.8% to 1.544 mln from 1.532 mln. Housing may be finding a bottom, especially with permits above starts, but bad weather in April may call for an interruption.

NYC beyond_destiny 12:35 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
likely no event...Mixed data

Dallas GEP 12:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
longed eur/gbp

Syd 12:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
US Mar Housing Starts +0.8% To 1.518M; Consensus -1.6%

RIC fxq 12:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
NYAM, missed by a pip or two again, 20059 offered on my platform :(

CT Cris 12:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd ...
if breaks 20060 it will reach 20100.

red bank fxdh 12:31 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
housing up .8

red bank fxdh 12:30 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
cpi .6 2.5 yoy

CT Cris 12:27 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Ramat Afal SBS 12:07 GMT April 17, 2007
CT cris, if around do you have an opinion on cable for now ?
no big follow through above 2$, can we expect a pull back?
thanks

====
in uptrend ..may rise more.

Bodrum OEE 12:25 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, thank you for the post. Kind regards.

Makassar Alimin 12:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy order 119.38 mentioned this morning was filled while away, stops now under the fig

JHB SRG 12:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Anyone have an opinion on Cable pls?

Dallas GEP 12:15 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
As long as GBP doesn't break longer than 20050, eur/gbp is a good LONG from 6750/60 area

Ramat Afal SBS 12:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CT cris, if around do you have an opinion on cable for now ?
no big follow through above 2$, can we expect a pull back?
thanks

NYC beyond_destiny 11:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 11:26 GMT April 17, 2007
chf, would be a longer term trade.

Agree... I think Swissie is in downside slope..But could be very slowly as long as 1.202-5 holds..

GVI john 11:49 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

Syd 11:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
UK Blair: High Energy Prices Major Reason For CPI Pickup

London NYAM 11:41 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
fxq// It seems worth a go. The problem with cable is that this run up to 2.000 unlike the other two failed pusches is that this one has had many consolidations and is a stronger trend then the previous two.
Also it seems to me that cable won't be troubled until there are clear signs the housing market is in trouble.
When interest rises do take effect the market will follow but that may be some time away.
I still want to fade it just want to see soem evidence of momentum turning.

madrid mm 11:38 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
perfect example today this GBP-USD on a trade the news basis

madrid mm 11:37 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
someone keeps refreshing at the moment this 2.0026 offer on the CME Equivalents gbp-usd
expect bla bla bla.....8-)

madrid mm 11:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
PAR 11:06 GMT April 17, 2007

8-)

RIC fxq 11:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM re. cable:

Yes, I am, but not clear yet on what level as I had a 12060 R4 target but not yet seen.

Auckland trotter 11:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
FWIW
I have posted on the help forum about the intra pivot levels. At the moment the EUR/USD has a support level on the 1 hour 5 day chart at the daily I3 pivot of 1.3524.

Just a comment, as expect to see more down - ref. previous posts.

hk ab 11:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
chf, would be a longer term trade.
grab the pip on gbp.

NYC beyond_destiny 11:25 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
HK ab

What's ur t/p on swissie short? TIA

warsaw TOMi 11:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   

Hans-Rudolf Merz (born 10 November 1942) is a Swiss politician. Elected member of the Swiss Federal Council on 10 December 2003 as member of the Free Democratic Party (FDP/PRD), he heads the Federal Department of Finance.

Born in Herisau, Switzerland, he studied at Hochschule St. Gallen and graduated in 1971 as Dr. rer. publ.

From 1969 to 1974, he was party secretary of the Free Democratic Party (FDP/PRD) in St. Gallen. Since 1977 he worked as a management consultant.

In 1997, he was elected to the Swiss Council of States for the canton of Appenzell Outer Rhodes. He presided the finance committee and was a member of the foreign policy committee.

At the time of his election to the Federal Council, he was on the board of directors of the Helvetia-Patria insurance company and Anova Holding. He was also member of the board of trustees of the Max Schmidheiny Foundation.

He is married and father of three sons.

maybe worth of a free million to trade :)) lol.

UK Alex 11:20 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 11:16 GMT April 17, 2007
That's the real one, I wonder who the other one is.

hk ab 11:17 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gbp stop at entry.

The Netherlands Purk 11:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 11:02 GMT April 17, 2007
I wonder whether Hans-Rudolf Merz is a genuine person or one of Cris's

Hans-Rudolf Merz wurde am 10. November 1942 als Bürger von Beinwil am See (AG) in Herisau (AR) geboren.

UK Alex 11:15 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Q: There is concern that the North American operations of Japanese automakers, which have been their main source of income, might become unprofitable due to the U.S. economic slowdown.

A: The North American market is no longer the driving force for Japanese carmakers. It is a mature market, one that is unlikely to bring robust profit growth. "Post-North American markets" will be the key to earnings in the future. For Toyota and Honda, it will be China, while for Suzuki, it will be India and Europe. There will be clear-cut differences between firms with a solid presence in these growing markets and those without one.

We have to pay closer attention to the fact that carmakers are going through a serious sales slump in the domestic market. Although overseas production is increasing, the fact remains that the profit margin on domestic output is high. Strong sales abroad have helped the industry, but it is inevitable that flagging domestic sales will weigh heavily on profit.

London NYAM 11:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
loonie to 1.1275-80 pardon.

London NYAM 11:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The loonie bounce was anaemic. I wouldnt be surprised to see the 1.1300 breached down to 1.2775-80 today.

Anyone fading cable or looking to fade it?

UK Alex 11:11 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Hera 11:09 GMT April 17, 2007
Business must be slow.

UK Alex 11:09 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--The yen, whose weakness helped boost the profits of automakers in fiscal 2006, will likely turn against them this fiscal year as it is expected to strengthen during the term, Takaki Nakanishi, an analyst at JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., said during a recent conversation with the Nikkei Business Daily.

USA Hera 11:09 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 10:46 GMT April 17, 2007

are you a clown?

GVI john 11:08 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3546	119.79	1.2137	1.9898	1.1311	0.8320	162.27
High	1.3578	119.87	1.2148	1.9940	1.1375	0.8357	162.43
Low	1.3536	118.98	1.2116	1.9857	1.1302	0.8313	161.45
04/16/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/16/2007					
5 day 	1.3482	119.29	1.2165	1.9802	1.1383	0.8288	160.83
10 day	1.3426	119.13	1.2188	1.9748	1.1462	0.8227	159.95
20 day 	1.3381	118.44	1.2167	1.9704	1.1522	0.8153	158.48
50 day 	1.3238	118.71	1.2244	1.9570	1.1641	0.7965	157.14
100 day	1.3161	118.88	1.2263	1.9589	1.1648	0.7900	156.45
200 day	1.2953	117.99	1.2345	1.9221	1.1454	0.7752	152.85

PAR 11:06 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Only central bank which has inflation under control is BOJ . Other central banks are struggling, some even have to write letters . Lol.

Alabama Larry 11:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
use google per Hans-Rudolf Merz

UK Alex 11:02 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I wonder whether Hans-Rudolf Merz is a genuine person or one of Cris's shills?

van Gecko 10:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
ILLINOIS Mike.. clearing your own head?

"ILLINOIS Mike Pinion 11:09 GMT February 20, 2007
..... Got nothin' better to do/say? I can offer you a little barium enaema to clear the head, my treat."

hk ab 10:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I am bold long gb 2.0015.

hk ab 10:57 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
short chf 1.2108

Plovdiv Gotin 10:54 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
MLT PA 10:44 GMT April 17, 2007
Thanx a lot mate.

Halifax CB 10:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 09:13 GMT April 17, 2007

from the 14th century....
En monnoies est li cose moult obscure
Elles vont haut et bas, se ne set-on que faire
Quand on guide wagnier, on troeve le contraire.


(Coins are the strangest things/They go up and down, one doesn't know what to do/ When you think you've gained, you find the contrary).

Somethings never change....

madrid mm 10:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CME Equivalents there is someone refresshing the offer @ 2.0026 fwiw 8-)

expect the unExpected

Macau Sofia 10:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Last round, EUR/YEN bulls sent price 12 big figures higher during last 6 months of 2006. This round, EUR/YEN bulls send price up 12 big figures in 1.5 months. Is this a good enough reason for bulls to take some off the table at around 162 line?

CT Cris 10:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Zurich Hans-Rudolf Merz 06:07 GMT April 17, 2007
Dear Mr. CT CRIS,

very timed and accurate calls from your end most of times, please provide me with your contact channels as we may discuss further about you trading in our behalf.

Best regards,


Hans-Rudolf Merz

==========
pls ask Mr Jay to give you my email. thks
[email protected]

warsaw TOMi 10:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I have highest bid 0061 cable, anyone had any order between 2.0040 and 2.0060, was it executed??

USA Zeus 10:45 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
whaoh- Finally figured out how to rapid fire in a double post. Sorry about that! LOL

MLT PA 10:44 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 10:41 / Cable high = 2.0034 (bid) - EBS

USA Zeus 10:44 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Austin GW 10:43 GMT April 17, 2007
Not at all- Plz do.
GT :-)

USA Zeus 10:44 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Austin GW 10:43 GMT April 17, 2007
Not at all- Plz do.
GT :-)

Austin GW 10:43 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Zeus

Mind if I send you an email?

USA Zeus 10:41 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Austin GW 10:36 GMT April 17, 2007

2.0033 was their high dealable rate. The spike was an error

Plovdiv Gotin 10:41 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
ESB Cable Hi ?TIA.

Dublin Flip 10:41 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
GW I have a platform (C,M,C) has 2.0062 bid as well

hk ab 10:40 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
zeus, cad might need gold finishes its job at 730 before rebounds.....i am looking into the 5dma to go short.

madrid mm 10:40 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gbp-usd that is

madrid mm 10:39 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
high CME equivalents 2.0046

MLT PA 10:38 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
rag bar 10:34 GMT / Cable high = 2.0034

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:36 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
my system shows high 49bid....but my broker only confirm 35 so far.

Ldn Cashman 10:36 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
There was a mis hit on Reuters D2 at 2.0062. The high was in the 30's. Maybe meant to bid 26 and put 62 by mistake.

Austin GW 10:36 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
rag bar 10:34 GMT April 17, 2007
on G*F*censored there is a spike to 20060 high...anybody ?

I have it here with same broker rag bar. And I also have a spike low to 9920 about an hour ago. Still hasn't been taken off my charts. Not impressed with this broker at all!!!

CT Cris 10:36 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
London AL 07:41 GMT April 17, 2007
Quote CT Cris


""gbp.jpy to fall to 238.00 and then rise to 239.00.""


but it falls to 237.15 exactly as "you did not say".
====
it is above 239.00 now .. in all cases you have to follow my strategy.

Como Perrie 10:35 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
will the usd tank after I come back from my lunchtime? well do really not care, but might be

UK Alex 10:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:29 GMT April 17, 2007
ab, Keep an eye on those short term interest rates. A lot is being priced in today.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Sell your house...sell your car...sell your clothes....and collect all the money to sell cable at 2.0100 if seen lol. GL

rag bar 10:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
on G*F*censored there is a spike to 20060 high...anybody ?

USA Zeus 10:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 10:15 GMT April 17, 2007
Purk- Excellent! Same areas of interest for my next hopeful accumulation. Now- since no offers to buy the goose were made at 1.13 or lower let's see....

Plovdiv Gotin 10:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Cable Hi? 2.0062; 2.0048?TIA.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:31 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Cable high bid at 2.0035

USA Zeus 10:30 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 10:23 GMT April 17, 2007
Not me either ab. Only sales for me are to thin on surges from the 1.9591 long signal with accumulations on dips.
GT!

moscow mike 10:30 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 08:46 GMT April 17, 2007
Pulled the trigger on cable shorts at 1.9995, stop 2.0020.
-------------------
nice no-smell flip coin trade failed LOL

hk ab 10:29 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
an exhaustion should be a 100 pips spike for gbp, GL and GT.

hk ab 10:28 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
euro will follow gbp after French election.

hk ab 10:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
zeus, hoep you didn't get into this gbp sale. I will wait 2.02.

hk ab 10:18 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
when this gbp breaks 2.0000 and holds, it will be a s/t balistic move.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
GEP //
I see the EURUSD hasn't moved and the GBPUSD is at the 2 handle...
semms all action was in the EURGBP cross - nice sell at 6820..

hk ab 10:16 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gbp will start a brief retracement when 2.02 reaches.

The Netherlands Purk 10:15 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:22 GMT April 17, 2007

Because people are falling into his traps..

Now the loonie decided to short from the 11330's so watch 11260 and maybe even 11230... 11340 can spoil that for the shorters.
I dont think the people who longed it at 113 will do that again, they will long at lower levels, and that would be 11270-80

Macau Sofia 10:13 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Illinois Mike Pinion 09:42 GMT April 17, 2007

He tried hard to talk up the dollar to sell at better levels.

Oakland daimyo 10:11 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Auckland trotter 09:23 GMT April 17, 2007
Agreed, however, I believe waiting for those last few pips increases your risk exponentially. Also, when everybody expecting certain price level, expect to see order book skew & therefore mean reversion (correction) as emotional trading (euphoria) cools down. Im not one to bet against the trend but crowd psychology at this point favors conclusion / preperation for next campaign. Good trades

Como Perrie 10:08 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
questioned on previous but It s still some hours for fishing I guess

Como Perrie 10:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
at current yen looks to me more bullish than others

afternoon Brown will be question about the UK inflation

Como Perrie 09:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
very simply CPI at 0 the usd tanks, CPI at 0.3 or higher It holds..0.2 average estimates

i would not bet on It but do have coupla ideas on the outcome based on recent market developments

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 09:33 //
applause!

Auckland trotter 09:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
For the EUR/USD I have a down upper trendline on the 1 hour 5 day chart with over bought indicators on several time charts, and fundamentals for the week look in favour of the USD.

Selling from 1.3549

Missed out on some bounces of trades as my trade station and charts have not been in sync for some reason.

Illinois Mike Pinion 09:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
van Gecko 08:27 GMT April 17, 2007
you snooze.. you loose..
dollar feeding frenzy..

If your PC monitor was turned upside-down you would have been hailed as the FX messiah. Give it a bash.

van Gecko 14:53 GMT March 30, 2007
2 weeks of failure infront of 1.34 & some impatient dive hard bulls still think any dips are gift from heaven for 1.36 on this latest europhoric leg..
amazing "h'issing pips against the wind" contest.. fwiww..

van Gecko 08:44 GMT February 14, 2007
GBP.. time for her majesty to showcase her February Flop..

van Gecko 08:12 GMT January 19, 2007
good inter-market set-up for the Dollar to repeat the Jan 3rd move.. her majesty could be the leader of the pack here.. cousin Euro & others will follow like Pavlov's dogs..

van Gecko 08:19 GMT January 18, 2007
jkt-aye.. imo GBP & cousin Euro is living on "borrowed time' up here off their crosses giving good risk reload opportunties for her majesty's m/t players..

"09:29 GMT December 14, 2006
GBP at these levels may represent a rare limited window of opportunity for mid & long term players to sell at levels not seen for the last decade & may not be seen again for the next decade to come.. a Sell & Snooze theme for the next 10 to 25 years.. and where her majesty go, cousin Euro & others will follow like Pavlov's dogs for they all dance in a macro same direction vs the Dollar with lead lag steps.."

etc etc
censored

USA Zeus 09:41 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Reminds me of why scaling in and slicing out of positions can be very important...

Don't try to guess how far a trend will go. You can't. Peter Borish, former second-in-command for Paul Tudor Jones, lays bare the only concern a trader must have:

"Price makes news, not the other way around. A market is going to go where a market is going to go"

Como Perrie 09:40 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy on watch

London NYAM 09:39 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Just anecdotal but it reminds me of the time i walked into a hot-dog restaurant in Florida and saw everyone watching CNBC and talking about their portfolios in Nov 1999.
A few of my friends who have never been close to trading or sat a course on markets or econ even, have decided to spread bet. Not just a couple of them and independently.
And of course they are all trying to give me tips on trading margin.
One friend has made 'a killing' on long USDGBP. I asked him how he based his trades, he said "i just look at the numbers and if its going in one direction i buy it. The pounds been going up so i buy it. Easy."
I wish i was that naturally talented...

UK Alex 09:39 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Apparently, there is an errant trade being worked through in cable right now. This may explain some of the volatility.

USA Zeus 09:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:14 GMT April 17, 2007

Yessss- "In reality, the 'fundamentals' are also influenced by the participants' expectations about the future course of exchange rates"..."As far as capital movements are concerned, perhaps the only transaction that is totally independent of expectations is the payment of interest on accumulated debt; the reinvestment of interest receipts already qualifies as a speculative transaction." G Soros

Good day!

Bahrain Bahrain1 09:31 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
UK: King says BoE 'must ensure' inflation expectations 'anchored', Brown says UK will 'continue to support' BoE in decisions. (Bloomberg)

UK Alex 09:29 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Prop traders are gunning for those stops just above 2.0000.

Gen dk 09:25 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Auckland trotter 09:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Oakland daimyo 08:54 GMT April 17, 2007
About what I see. Can’t ignore the EUR/USD high of 1.3666, which will play as a big psychological level.

Trading up and down on the pips for now, with a general slant to the down for the EUR/USD with over bought indicators on several time charts.

Don’t ignore those ‘die hards’ who are still looking for more up for the EUR/USD - weekly R2 pivot 1.3686.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 09:13 //
good - hear of the thory of reflexivity explained by G. Soros in his early book "The Alchemy of Finance"?

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:13 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm //
great sense of humor mate!!

USA Zeus 09:13 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
"Perception of the future price has a tendency to be serially dependent with the recent past. The more dependent perception becomes the more independent price will be."- Zeus

madrid mm 09:11 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
so the governor of the BoE will have to write to the Chancellor.
¨dear Gordon,

Inflation hit the 3.1 pct. What would you like me to do ? Please advise asap as i am planing my holidays to the USA to make the most of my wage.

yours trully,

BoE Governor¨

Lahore FM 09:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
zew eco sentiment 16.5 against 10.0 expected and 5.8 previous.

melbourne DC 09:06 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
US n EU trade data indicate eurusd rates impacting .

UK Alex 09:05 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Sterling just hit the $2 mark. CPI is at 3.1%, RPI (inflation) is at 4.8%. Mervyn King now has to write a letter to the Chancellor to explain why CPI is above target.

Oakland daimyo 09:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD: Expecting to see cyclic high any day now. Heavy hitters involved in shark feeding as small specs ignoring probability and being influenced by euphoria. Small spec crowd might want to sit on sidelines and enjoy the show as hedge fund crowd gets taken to the cleaners again. Prop desks run the street. Good trades

Bahrain Bahrain1 09:04 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
German April ZEW economic sentiment index 16.5 from 5.8 in March and against an expected 10.0. The expectations index was 76.9 from 69.2 in March and a forecast 69.0%.

madrid mm 09:03 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
uk inflation @ 3.1% -bbc

warsaw TOMi 09:00 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
2.0003 cable high will soon be covered by new high

UK Alex 09:00 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Time to buy some more index linked gilts.

madrid mm 08:58 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
April 17 (Bloomberg) -- The pound rallied to $2 for the first time since September 1992 as traders wagered the Bank of England will keep raising interest rates to cool inflation fed by house prices, wage demands and consumer spending.

The U.K. pound reached the highest since September 1992, when billionaire investor George Soros and other speculators drove the currency out of the European system of linked exchange rates. Britain's economy, Europe's second-biggest, has shown few signs of cooling after three rate increases since early August. Another quarter-point move would take borrowing costs to 5.5 percent, the highest among the Group of Seven major economies.

``The sky's the limit for sterling,'' Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York, said in London. ``It's a favorite for investors because of the rate differential.''

USA Zeus 08:58 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 07:00 GMT April 17, 2007
Dr. Zeus, how are the equities looking from your end?


Professor- Wild, volatile and theme shift on a day-by-day basis in this earnings season.

GT!

Gen dk 08:56 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 08:56 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 14:43 GMT April 16, 2007

Ok- Would look to thin out of those longs a bit on these GBP/SD surges.

madrid mm 08:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Interesting to note that the CME Equivalents quotes 2.0001 for highest !!!

Oakland daimyo 08:54 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
FWIW: Have taken profits on med-term big swing trades as I believe current mkt environment favors composite operator conclusion of bull campaign in EURUSD ahead of aggressive max tgt @ 1.3675. ref:Oakland daimyo 12:54 GMT February 9, 2007. I would be careful betting against dollar at this point. Odds favor USD bulls for correction playing against late majority / laggards (Life Cycle Model). Favor selling calls from here for mean reversion (both price & volatility). Note: the reverse holds true for USDCHF spot and CHF futures/ options. Good trades

madrid mm 08:49 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
not a big move really this gbp-usd !!
yesterday euro-sek moved from 9.29 till 9.21 !! that is a MOVE !! 8-)

Oh yeah i amost forgot the pip value lol

xios 08:49 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 08:46 GMT April 17, 2007

thx for that

good trades ahead

go well

Austin GW 08:48 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 08:46 GMT April 17, 2007
Pulled the trigger on cable shorts at 1.9995, stop 2.0020

gutsy, as their is a 4hr TL just above that level.

gl/gt

Cape Town 08:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Posted last November on GVI ... might be of interest ... a very long term GBPUSD chart going back to 1900 using a logscale.

madrid mm 08:47 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
i am guessing a lot of people are glued to their screen watching this 2.0000 lvl gbp-usd
lol

moscow mike 08:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Pulled the trigger on cable shorts at 1.9995, stop 2.0020.

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:46 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I have high here 2.0005 bid

xios 08:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Morning All

Haven't posted for a while.

Can anyone be kind enough to tell me the hi on cable?
Has it broken the 2.0000 level yet?

glgt ahead

hk ab 08:41 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gbp reaches bc mentioned 2.0 target, fwiw.

ECB Trichet 08:40 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
There's a significant demand for EUR!

Dallas GEP 08:36 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Closed RESt of eur/gbp shorts here from 6820.

van Gecko 08:27 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
you snooze.. you loose..
dollar feeding frenzy..


madrid mm 08:24 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
for education purpose i would recommend http://www.cme.com/edu/ fwiw

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk //
hi man - why you pay attn to it anyway..

my favorite quote is from G. Soros to his associate who had a 1 bln. position.. Soros told him:

"You call that a position??"

The Netherlands Purk 08:03 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
My quote for the day:

Is this a stophunt for CT Cris alias WTF Hourly?

Loonie on the border here: or 11290 or 11365...

Gen dk 08:01 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 07:57 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Look To See If EUR Suffers From 'Gravity'
EUR reaction to the ZEW could be telling. Sure, if the index rises over 10.0, the EUR could rise with it. But ABN-Amro says that if the EUR doesn't, this suggests the currency is starting to suffer from the 'gravity' of stretched speculative positioning. "We tend to view that this 'gravity' may not weigh it down for long if corporates and real money investors decide to use an upside spot pause as a buy point," the bank says, suggesting that this could become evident as early as this afternoon if the latest US CPI data and housing starts numbers aren't as strong as expected.

Syd 07:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Caution Creeping Into Carry Trades - HBoS

After the euphoria of carry-trade driven JPY cross rates printing new highs, US stock indices finally surpassing pre February-to-mid-March correction levels, some caution has crept into the markets overnight, notes HBoS. Asia equities traded on the soft side, problems in the US housing market are getting attention again and BoJ governor Fukui and finance minister Omi both gave veiled warnings on JPY's exchange rate overnight. The bank says even a small uptick in risk aversion could leave extended positioning in carry trades vulnerable, with EUR/JPY looking more exposed than GBP/JPY, which looks more exposed than USD/JPY.

London AL 07:41 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Quote CT Cris


""gbp.jpy to fall to 238.00 and then rise to 239.00.""


but it falls to 237.15 exactly as "you did not say".

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:38 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
As Zeus pointed out, an interesting story looking to unfold is the AUD. The 800 point correction EURAUD in the course of one month could unfold like a "good mystery novel."

Bodrum OEE 07:29 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Baroda Hemal 21:17 GMT April 16, 2007

Good day to you and all.

I expect a fall (downtrend to prevail over up) in gold and energy alike - in mid and long term as well as an acceleration next year in pace.

Regards

Como Perrie 07:28 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
UK inflation later on might be also a factor, might be not

Como Perrie 07:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
not a trading advice the previous, as am taking It on a very light approach in such risky crispy markets pips for the day is still the theme apparently but watch in case usdjpy 11870/80 if drops there trough..for now they do hold and might yet squeeze upper or not....very unclear the billions turning on 10 seconds charts and robots, but they did have problems last days with signal and computer mangment in many high profile alghoritmic funds

Como Perrie 07:19 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
beside all today in US the subprime will be discussed. some important datas for industrial prod which is forecasted milder than previous and so on.... unles It holds they play is the theme, but friday CBs were a notch from catastrophe so they have to clear yet losa intervention money they abused last day to mantain the dollar and crosses limbo, tks to yen and chf mostly

Como Perrie 07:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Today's european FT reports stats and comments about the greenspan's predicted stagflation risk for US to have more than doubled. Hence bonds running for safehaven risk territories. Nikkei drops etc. as will the Dow later on in US likely. Except other interventions and falsifications o.c.

good day ahead

Lahore FM 07:03 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mumbai NS 06:59 GMT April 17, 2007
your half cent is most welcome as that is the flip side.thanx.

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:00 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Zeus, how are the equities looking from your end?

Mumbai NS 06:59 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
FM some yen carry story is coming back yes it can be risky today just my half cent glgt

Lahore FM 06:56 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy 119.20 can be a risky but long trade.

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 06:24 GMT April 17, 2007 ... Let the storm begin! LOL

Hope you are not using my copyright Smell Indicator© as I got the same signal. Good to see you back!

Mumbai NS 06:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 06:21 GMT April 17, 2007

Frd i asked only for ur views anyways can u give that ....and yes i am aware that all can't pick tops and bottoms , only gutsy big guys do that ... cheers gl gt

Perth Randall El 06:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Mr Kris- is usd.jpy 120 still coming or is type 2 tradin' more of a second coming? Bought a bunch on your word but am losing my shorts. Thanks a million!

moscow mike 06:24 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Only core left on e/j shorts from 162.00, sliced out more +40. Stops at b/e. Let the storm begin! LOL

moscow mike 06:21 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:50 GMT April 17, 2007
Yes i do, you can contact me in a regular manner to get them.

Mumbai NS 05:50 GMT April 17, 2007
it isnt an easy task to pic tops/bottoms. In scalpy mode i am 51% bearish with risk above previous day high.
Great to see you aswell.

GT

Lahore FM 06:13 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:42 GMT April 17, 2007
thanx Purk for the last line.you have an infallible wittiness.the comic relief was most welcome.gtgl.

moscow mike 06:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 04:51 GMT April 17, 2007
Looks like euryen shorts could play a nice role with risk at 162.50
----------------
Smelling indicator works good today. Sliced half +30 for the smell not to vapour completely.

Zurich Hans-Rudolf Merz 06:07 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Dear Mr. CT CRIS,

very timed and accurate calls from your end most of times, please provide me with your contact channels as we may discuss further about you trading in our behalf.

Best regards,


Hans-Rudolf Merz

madrid mm 05:56 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

ECB Pres Jean-Claude Trichet says international policy cooperation are vital for global financial stability. Euro has not led to fortress Europe. Goal of IMF reform is to ensure fair voice for all members. IMF should distinguish between market-driven FX rates and policy driven rates. EU Stability and Growth pact has not been abandoned.

China Daily editorial piece says IMF is "meddling" in China affairs by saying China needs a more flexible FX policy.

US Treasury Asst Sec Clay Lowery says he has heard nothing new from Chinese official on pace of CNY reform after Monday's US-China meeting. US emphasized need for China to move more quickly to allow mkt to set CNY value.

MoF Koji Omi says JPY was not singled out at G7. Reiterates that recent FX move is not so much due to a fall in JPY, as a rise in EUR.

BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui says Japanese economy is expanding gradually, BoJ rate adjustment still in process of reaching desirable level, and BoJ is in process of raising rates gradually, though very cautiously. Japan CPI expected to stay in positive trend. BoJ is guiding policy with view that CPI will fall within BoJ long term price forecasts.

New BoJ member Hidetoshi Kamezaki says he is not uncomfortable with the 0-2% BoJ range of price stability - BBG,

UK Times: PM Tony Blair is heading towards his final electoral test on May3 with Labour on 29%, its lowest rating since he became leader 13 years ago and its most lowly position in the run-up to local elections for more than 20 years. Today's Populus poll for The Times suggests that Mr Blair will depart office after 10 years as PM with one of his party's worst-ever drubbings behind him.

Australia busness conditions in Q1 unchanged at 17 - NAB.

Focus in Asia on 120 USD/JPY, 100 AUD/JPY, new high in EUR/JPY (above the post G7 162.43), with market players seen determined to take out 120, but instead went into heavy selling ahead of the levels.

Hearing large Japanese custodian, agricultural and regional banks out of Tokyo, Japanese exporters, US invs houses, brokerage and securities houses sold good amount of USD/JPY, EUR/JPY at highs, pushing it to 119.53 from 119.82, and EUR/JPY to 161.73 from 162.10.

USD/JPY came under renewed selling in late Asia 119.46, and EUR/JPY under pressure, as market players are cautious of profit-taking sales as 2 large US house/ bank, are recommending a sell in EUR/JPY at current record high levels, calling for a break of 160 toward 158.

EUR/JPY options triggers at 162.50, with bids still at 161.50-60 lows and USD/JPY bids at 119.40-50 from other US investment houses, funds, options related interest at mkt is long Gamma. Focus still on huge 120.00 options, stoploss on break.

Talks of good options related selling in AUD/JPY b4 100, Japan fund managers and houses profit-taking selling interest, helping to cap it at 10-year highs of 99.90.

AUD/USD still finding real demand, US funds buying around 0.83 handle, focus on 17 and half year highs of 0.8359.

Kiwi off 25-month highs of 0.7413, but interest to buy on dips, with NZD/JPY bid, though off its almost 17-year highs 88.80. Focuys on Kiwi CPI today, for RBNZ bias.

GBP back up at 1.9916-19, eye yesterday 14 year 8 month highs of 1.9940 and big 2.0000, focus on UK CPI, a near 3.00% number to trigger more buying post.

USD eye US CPI, US house data and US Treasuries. EUR eye ZEW data.

Nikkei reverses its earlier gains, -83pts or 0.48% at 17,544. JGBs firmer after strong 30-yr auction, 10-yr yield -0.015% at 1.680%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 119.46/119.82, EUR/USD 1.3525/1.3548, GBP/USD 1.9881/1.9920, USD/CHF 1.2125/1.2151, AUD/USD 0.8317/0.8330, NZD/USD 0.7386/0.7402.

CANBERRA JD 05:55 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
WOw some childish remarks from some people (they know who they are). Lets get back on track children.

madrid mm 05:54 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi
8-)

USA Zeus 05:53 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 04:05 GMT April 17, 2007
USA Zeus 03:01 GMT April 17, 2007

you are using new indicator , the smell indicator ,which is
work by smelling the sh....great new indicator, for a man like you.”
------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you for the kind words- You (and you) inspired it-


CT Cris 05:09 GMT October 18, 2006
”I am using more than 30 indicators to predict the movement of the market.

CT Cris 14:36 GMT November 2, 2006
“as I said b4, trader must use many indicators and strategies to achieve best results.”
============================================
Add another- The split personality jack azzes smell test (SPJAST) to achieve best results...
Wish you a Happy Day!

The Netherlands Purk 05:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 05:14 GMT April 17, 2007

PLOL. You have pictures as well?

Mumbai NS 05:50 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 05:14 GMT April 17, 2007

Hi frd long time hope u fine ur cbl view pls gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 05:42 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
In the meantime the bounce to 16180 in e/j done. Now we have the next border : 16240. 16104 will spoil that for the rest of the day...

Loonie: no pattern change. If this continues, we might see 11260, 11396 will spoil that one.

Sand to Sand, ashes to sand....

USA Zeus 05:19 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I knew that smell from anywhere. It was only time before those frolicking jack azzes (split-personalities) came back as pesty as sand flies-

CT Cris 19:22 GMT April 2, 2007
”…me with the doneky who laughs on the the joke next day , cause it takes him sometime to understand it.”

moscow mike 05:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:06 GMT April 17, 2007
You remind me Gollum from Lord of the Rings tale with his splitted personality.

Wish you a great day!

USA Zeus 05:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 14:43 GMT April 16, 2007
Thank you for the kind words. Would look to thin out on GBP/USD from the very accurate buy on dip strategy beginning at bottom of this trend after a multi-flip flop false ICBM sell confirmation which never hit its target-

CT Cris 17:40 GMT March 30, 2007
this is the most accurate call for today...for the blind Zues..

CT Cris 08:18 GMT March 30, 2007
========
as downtrend confirmed at 19605 , then will continue till 19470.

USA Zeus 16:20 GMT April 9, 2007
Will look to buy GBP/USD after it slips a bit underneath the 1.96 handle.

USA Zeus 16:49 GMT April 9, 2007
Bought GBP/USD 1.9591

CT Cris 05:06 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 04:57 GMT April 17, 2007
=====
such person has no taste or feeling for nice smell.

Syd 04:58 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY May Get Boost From US CPI,Housing Starts
USD/JPY may get the boost it needs to rise above 120 if U.S. March CPI, housing starts data stronger than expected, says trader at major Japan bank. Still, weak data could as easily cause fall below 119 as USD "at a very sensitive level at the moment", he adds. Pair likely to trade in very tight band ahead of data, says another trader; tips pair in 119.50-119.80 range for now. Pair last at 119.68 on EBS.

moscow mike 04:57 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Forgot to add that smelling indicator smells nice about it aswell.

moscow mike 04:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Looks like euryen shorts could play a nice role with risk at 162.50

Makassar Alimin 04:34 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
when you want to bet for usd index bounce, i think it is worthwhile to choose usd's strongest hand, so far it has been usdjpy, so might be good to look for long entry with clear stop loss plan

CANBERRA JD 04:23 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
I would like to see a move down 300 pips on a/u.. but I can only see bearish signals on the lower time frames. So we will probably just sit here until going up again.

Syd 04:21 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Business Conditions Unchanged - NAB

Syd 04:19 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said Tuesday that a tighter employment market could lead to higher wages as companies compete for labor.

CT Cris 04:05 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 03:01 GMT April 17, 2007

Meanwhile AUD/USD smells like a sell on blip trade
=====
you are using new indicator , the smell indicator ,which is
work by smelling the sh.... of Aus. poeple to predict the call
about the currency.
great new indicator, for a man like you.

AZUSA 4x-ed 03:39 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Sand fly or sandfly is a colloquial name for any species or genus of flying, biting, blood-sucking Dipteran that is encountered in sandy areas. Some of these insects are a type of midge, which do not even bite.

In the New World, leishmaniasis is spread by sand flies of the genus Lutzomyia. In the Old World, the disease is spread by sandflies of the genus Phlebotomus.

Melbourne Qindex 03:38 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Updated) : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is trying to tackle the monthly cycle normal upper limit at 0.8377, if it fails to hold the next target is the extreme level at 0.8560. On the other hand speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through 0.8316.


Melbourne Qindex 23:30 GMT April 9, 2007
AUD/USD (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in the frequency chart of my monthly cycle the projected chart point at 0.8010 and 0.8193 has the same frequency numbers and this would indicate that the market can easily move between these two points, 0.8010 - 0.8193. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above 0.8193. The normal trading range of my monthly cycle is 0.7827 - 0.8377. On the other hand speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8010.

CT Cris 03:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 03:01 GMT April 17, 2007
===
crazeus , would you tell us how many brokers are busy to manage your micro account.

USA Zeus 03:01 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Well sitting here wishing my brokers had given offers on USD/CAD at/below 1.13 for a very accurate purchase.

Meanwhile AUD/USD smells like a sell on blip trade.

Dallas GEP 02:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
FYI, AUD/NZD I think we have seen the LOW there already today IMO

Syd 02:44 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Callum Henderson, head of currency strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. says RBA on hold as Exchange rate doing the job for them CNBCasia

Baroda Hemal 02:43 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Any comments on GLD/USD???

Dallas GEP 02:33 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
BAY, I would be surprised to see NZD go any higher than 7410

Syd 02:30 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
China Urged To Speed Up CNY Rise To Balance BOP


0220 GMT [Dow Jones] Imbalance of international payments still major problem to China economy, Beijing should speed up CNY appreciation, says Zhu Baoliang, senior economist with government think tank State Information Center in article published in official Securities Times. "The yuan rise did not play enough in balancing trade"; suggests faster CNY rise, especially vs EUR, lifting interest rate, reserve requirement ratio at appropriate time. Suggestions by well-known Chinese economist part of mainstream view, though PBOC Vice Governor Hu told IMF at weekend not to overestimate forex role in fixing imbalances.

Melbourne Qindex 02:12 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is trying to tackle the extreme trading level of 99.88 - 101.25. The expansion of (95.76 - 101.25) indicates that the market is rejected from the barrier at 99.88 // 100.22 for the meantime. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through 98.05. A projected supporting barrier is expected at 96.79 // 97.13.

USA BAY 02:03 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

NZD/USD, 0.7430/40 seems to be a significant resistance for kiwi, maybe a short there for initial target 0.7310/20 area. Your view please. tia

Dallas GEP 01:28 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Well I have been waiting on KIWI to short but AUD/NZD shorts are keeping it suported for now. 1/2 of my eur/gbp shorts have been closed because we could have possible bounce long from 6800. GBP looks to be MORE toppish than euro presently USD/CAD is very weak and shorts from 1.1330/40 could work nicely.

Makassar Alimin 01:22 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
will try long usdjpy at 119.38 if seen on separate account with stops somewhere under the fig for above 120

usdchf looks like about to make a turn, but still under pressure, will give it some time and see later on

Syd 01:14 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Japan Omi:Current EUR/JPY Level More Due To Euro Strength

FX Levels Should Reflect Econ Fundamentals

Excess FX Moves Undesirable censored

Sydney ACC 00:51 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Philadelphia Caba 00:26 GMT April 17, 2007
There will be approx 3 million Japanese retire over the next three years. Each one is expected to have on average USD 250k in superannuation. That is USD 750 billion.
If only a third goes into the carry-trade that is USD 250 billion.

Philadelphia Caba 00:26 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
Japan Retail Medium-Long Term Investments Behind Weak JPY.
This is the gist of today"s "Position" column in the Nikkei Financial. According to the article, recent JPY weakness is not the result of hedge fund positioning or overseas CTA moves as was the case very early this year, prior to
the stock market meltdowns at end-February. In fact, the contention is that these players may have moved over to the JPY buy-side, either to take profits or put on fresh longs in anticipation of retracements from multi-year lows,
especially on the crosses. The contention of the article is that Japanese medium and long-term retail investors are behind the fresh JPY moves to multi-year lows on the crosses and, with such flows looking to continue for some time, dips in
the JPY crosses as well as USD/JPY will continue to be well-supported. ifr.
any comments, pls? tia!

Syd 00:19 GMT April 17, 2007 Reply   
AUDUSD – The AUDUSD continues to rally and briefly traded above the 1990 high of .8351 today. Daily oscillators (CCI and RSI) are overbought and divergent with recent highs. Also, the break that occurred at .8000 was from a triangle and triangle breakouts are terminal (meaning that they are eventually retraced). The daily chart below shows the triangle (a-b-c-d-e) and the 5 wave rally that has ensued and RSI. With daily oscillator action, an extreme risk reversal rate (1 month 25 delta options) and the Aussie at former longer term resistance, we are looking for a reversal. Coming under .8232 signals that we are on the right track.

NZDUSD – Kiwi briefly traded above .7400 today, just 50 pips from the March 2005 high at .7463. A Fibonacci turn date was Friday – but the longer term nature of the analysis allows for a deviation of 4 days. Daily RSI is overbought and divergent as well. Coming under .7313 would be the first sign that a top is in place.

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