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Forex Forum Archive for 04/19/2007

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BUD Petr 23:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD seems to be stuck in the 1.3620 - 30 range, probably hitting a few stops here. anyone heard anything on wires re this?

BUD Petr 23:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
censored expect gold & silver to head down as soon as carry trades unwind. JPY made an attempt to strenghten but that wasn't long lasting. I am staying on sideline...

shanghai bc 23:46 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 23:32 GMT April 19, 2007

On tactical point,DX 80.00 and Gold 700/Oz are all medium-term oversold/overbought regions..I am more concerned about where to unload cargo of mid-March than thinking about where to load now..Good luck..

hk ab 23:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
bc, do you see this is risky to load more gold and silver here s/t? TIA. I have some rooms to add more.

shanghai bc 23:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 23:18 GMT April 19, 2007

Assuming real inflation rate in China is 5-6% in the book of Pboc,Rmb annual appreciation of 5-6% may continue for a while..

NYC beyond_destiny 23:18 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:11 GMT April 19, 2007

May you share you view on CNY within next 16 months (prior to BJ Games)? TIA

shanghai bc 23:11 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Tallinn viies 20:32 GMT April 19, 2007

Cyclical weakness of Dollar may continue for some more months even testing the historical low of DX sometime this year too..Eur/Usd 1.40 is a good possibility too at some point this year as long as EU folks do not complain..Good luck..

Dallas GEP 23:08 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
caba...I have to get back to you on that one as i have to go and pick up a race car trailer now. LOL Back later in ASIA

Dallas GEP 23:06 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
DOM, your stop on a short would be the ASK price so that is entirely possible

Global-View 23:05 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
HK, the EBS high was 1.3629

Pittsburgh wjs 23:04 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
I had 1.3628 for my platform.

HK Dom 23:02 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Can ayone tell me what is the highest Euro/USd rate in EBS system hour ago, my stop been excute at 1. 3632. Thanks

shanghai bc 23:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 20:58 GMT April 19, 2007

WTO rules do not work that way..With China being the largest or the second largest trading partner of Japan,USA,EU,Latam,Africa,Asia ,it may be virtually impossible to get 3/4 of votes against China inside WTO..Paulson or Lamy can perhapse voluntarily close the doors of US or EU trade with China if that suits their national interests..

hk ab 22:57 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
finally, that 1.1310 sell filled on dlr/cad

Philadelphia Caba 22:55 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 22:31 GMT
GEP, may I know your view on eur/chf. pls?

NYC beyond_destiny 22:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 22:24 GMT April 19, 2007

What's your time frame for talk of 40 INR and 6.5 CNY?

Lahore FM 22:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
by way of fxcraft we should glide past 3660 area much the way psychological 2.00 was cleaned in one sweep.1.3720 first stop.

BUD Petr 22:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD - it's another yet day when euro's scoring high numbers overnight (european) times - is that only to retreat early morning again? or are we finally breaking 1.3666 2nite?

Dallas GEP 22:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Went ahead and shorted some eur/gbp at 6798 for target 6760. I suspect that we will get another surge LONG on GBP/USD to retest that 2.0120 area.

Sofia mik 22:26 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:48 GMT April 19, 2007
Somebody wants cheap(er) CADs!!!


to continue and cheap chf

Como Perrie 22:24 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Chinese Yuan between 6.5 and 5

Como Perrie 22:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
indian rupee somewhere 40 to 38

nite

Dallas GEP 22:18 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
aYE...7445/50 is a good place to short on KIWI....the last round time tho it shorted from 7480 area, Stops would need to be around 7517 IMO

Como Perrie 22:15 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Very large talking ranges to be seen later on in months


usdjpy 111.00 109.50 108.00

gbpjpy 199.80 197.10 194.40

Dallas GEP 22:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well Eur/gbp should be a good SELL here. Problem is if gBP/USD starts to dump aggresively then e/gbp could long to 6820/30 area. This tho is a good pivot point.

Syd 22:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
James McCormack, Head of Asia Sovereigns at Fitch speaking on Bloomberg says China Risks a Hard Landing , at the moment rating is ok but!

Syd 22:02 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Chief economist of China International Capital Corp. in Beijing Ha Jiming said
"The root of overheated investment is China's excessively low interest rates."

London NYAM 21:52 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB// Late reply. Yes 'they' would have a lot to gain but the problem is 'they' are a diverse and multidudinous group that couldnt possibly be organized. There re packs within packs and most play like scrappy dogs. No offense if you are a player in one, but thats what gives them their strength. To band together would be improbable if not impossible. And getting a few on board as leaders in trending packs would only have so much of a shelf life. When things get rocky the first off the ships are the rats. Only in this case the rats running off deck sends the others off board as well. Giving the rats info about the CBs fears would be crazy.

NYC beyond_destiny 21:48 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
euro constantly charged its yr-high and correction is due within 4 hr if not break. IMHO, I don't see any tricks here of lure more shorts. S/L should be all the way from 1.363-1.369. Any suggestion?

RIC fxq 21:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
given that EURJPY and GBPJPY (as well as the EUR and GBP CHF crosses) benefited more than similar USD crosses they will be more or at least equally affected by any wind down of carry trades.

USA BAY 21:33 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
If the Chinese moves, then it can get ugly with carry trades and as a result gbp/jpy could go bach to 221 area. Any views on that. tia

RIC fxq 21:33 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 21:18 GMT

not saying it can't but I don't see it in two months time. I don't believe the FOMC will move until the 2nd half of the year which makes Aug 7th or Sep 18th the possibilities.

Como Perrie 21:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
On the other side remember also that according to Forbes last year estimations the total amount of bonds, loans and other debt covered by credit default swaps is $26 trillion or twice the annual economic output of the U.S. which means if the economy goes into a recession, the hedge fund industry will be in trouble ... and so will its investors.

Como Perrie 21:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
tomorrow at closing we shall see... hard to tell anything imo...those yet long cable and eur as from january/feburary have room to hold a dollar correction, yen then is another story...

remember WTO agreement is key for the chinese politics, and they received many calls to move or they will be out

LKWD JJ 21:24 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
the scenario for being short cable 1.if the usd rebounds cable will fall or stay flat vs usd(highly unlikely with the last big runup). 2. if the carry trade unwinds cable will fall as it has risen being a beneficiary of the trade. catalyst for further upside is the retail sales number tomm. comments anybody?

Como Perrie 21:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
as usually those defaulted will be most probably the open hedge funds and synthetic papers yen related issued by some banks to retail investors, while closed funds some will survive as they already reduced heavily risks and returns.... there's a huge battle out there to appear toppish onto charts of return published so to attract small investors monies

Como Perrie 21:21 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 21:17 GMT April 19, 2007

:)
agree with yours, but counted some forced carry defaults into as an extension

USA BAY 21:18 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
RIC FXQ,

If it can drop, usd/jpy last year to 109.xx, why can't it this year with the same inteventions.

RIC fxq 21:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 21:03 GMT

I'll take a piece of that bet. If you'd said 112.00 I'd probably pass but at 110.00 I think PAR's interveners might make an appearance in reality.

LKWD JJ 21:15 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
sofia kaprikorn noticing a wedge in cable 1hr chart. what do you think of it?

GVI john 21:10 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 21:03 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3601	118.37	1.2054	2.0017	1.1285	0.8346	161.00
High	1.3620	118.69	1.2064	2.0094	1.1308	0.8392	161.49
Low	1.3561	117.61	1.2002	1.9987	1.1225	0.8284	159.61
04/19/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/19/2007					
5 day 	1.3565	119.17	1.2095	1.9979	1.1310	0.8344	161.39
10 day	1.3488	119.20	1.2150	1.9841	1.1381	0.8283	160.64
20 day 	1.3417	118.63	1.2159	1.9764	1.1478	0.8198	159.11
50 day 	1.3272	118.61	1.2222	1.9593	1.1608	0.7999	157.40
100 day	1.3170	118.98	1.2266	1.9598	1.1644	0.7914	156.67
200 day	1.2967	118.03	1.2340	1.9247	1.1454	0.7765	153.07

Como Perrie 21:03 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
imo not predictable on a daily basis but in two months usdjpy 110 I bet

Como Perrie 20:58 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Now the market has licking two bearish session and one recovery...news around are all looking the same as the carry thing is still healthy, I don't buy those news but this does not mean yen to be sold or bought during the late asean session.

tomorrow Paulson in Us speaks about China too and that might be important...the Chinese getting bit nervous about he push..if they do not act many officials last weeks have told that they will be banned from the WTO

so if they move usdjpy goes to 115 in a flush of a toilet of orders imo

LKWD JJ 20:52 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
$y 5/5 5/28 and todays lows on 4hr chart show lower channel support. anything showing that this line will not hold?

Como Perrie 20:52 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
http://www.hedgefund-index.com/s_highyield.asp



Some hedge funds apparently are making it hard for a private equity consortium to seal its $11.1 billion deal for the Australian airline Qantas. With just more than two weeks to go until their tender offer expires, the bidders, who include the Macquarie Bank and the Texas Pacific Group, are having trouble winning over shareholders, with the number of shares committed to the deal actually dropping since last week, according to Finance Asia.

http://censored.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/04/19/as-qantas-bid-comes-down-to-the-wire-hedge-funds-sit-tight/

Como Perrie 20:39 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 19:09 GMT April 19, 2007

Yeap top sources.. just remind that most of the volumes trillion talked are the same billions turning in and out of the market 20 to 40 times, so I would devide the trillions talked by that factor, plus the money spent by smaller investors

Tallinn viies 20:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
bc - if you there. can you share your view regarding euro target during this year and next? thnks in advance

Como Perrie 20:25 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
am puzzled yet some with comodities currencies..curius about tomorrow's closing of the cad and aud vs usd and yen, provided oil and gold stay down tomorrow clearly

Como Perrie 20:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
If this eurusd does not correct down by tomorrow we should pring 1.38 next week, exceptionally 1.40

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
And I was under the impression that folks were actually learning something in the process... Sorry CB, guess the humor didn't work!?

Como Perrie 20:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
gold down confirm US economic or global economic slowdown ready to show on stats soon

Como Perrie 20:21 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 18:54 GMT April 19, 2007

he is heavy short yens as a big carry speculator and tries to defend the big yen buying we have seen in asia ...will see tomorrow yet near flatty... do have just coupla options open

Halifax CB 20:20 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
hope ya make it CB; Zeus should have enough profit now :) But 1.1305 is a bad number, there might be a scramble around it with collateral damage (especially this time of day when stop hunts seem to show up). My bet's still on the Loonie, fwiw...

dc CB 20:11 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Getting close to the USA ZEUS winning.... in stopping me out at a profit ...much less than I "could' made".

not really worth the bravado. sorry
but Booooooooring

AZUSA 4x-ed 19:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 19:48 GMT April 19, 2007 || lol... did someone press replay on the ticker tape, or have we not been here with CAD before?

dc CB 19:48 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Somebody wants cheap(er) CADs!!!

goin' atm' right now.censored




censored

ABHA FXS 19:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy new day cap 237.44/55
happy trade..

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 19:12 //
tnx for the comment now and the last time I suffered big loss - it was helpful pointing to some en vogue indicators like the Envelopes, SAR & BB - appreciate it.

Bodrum - sorry I got your point now..

Sofia Kaprikorn 19:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - are you around?
just checked the Oil chart on the Ino site - the price breached the 50 DMA and is right on the 100 DMA which is starting to slope down - if this is correct and Oil is going down then your position in CAD is getting better..
What's your opinion on it?

Daily USDCAD - it has dipped far below the 200 DMA and it's ready I guess to rotate back as MACD and 20 - 50 DMA s all look overextended... GT!

Hong Kong Ahe 19:12 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 18:57 GMT April 19, 2007 - Hi Kaprikorn, the sandline is the fashion word of Forex market (perhaps it is invented by Athens following his term of "Contra"). Actually, it means the support line where a rebound of Contra trade occurs. Or it is the target level of a pattern movement by Big boys. Normally they are the Jubbs' level where you can see a pause or revert the direction. How to identify where is the sandline. It changes by the way of perception of forex players. By my experience, today's Jubbs levels are the not the same as 5 years or 10 years ago. Sometimes, you may refer Quindex or Trendways, they provide good levels as reference. GL & GT.

madrid mm 19:09 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
VAN/Canada 17:43 GMT April 19, 2007

Very difficult to say as the FX market is mainly an OTC market.
But look at the CME,CBOT, and ask them. They might give you an idea.
Try also the IMF, world bank etc....
Plus there is this info entitled
"Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity" from www.bis.org
Click here

Bodrum OEE 18:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 18:49 GMT April 19, 2007


Thank you very much. What I realized I wanted to ask was entry - exit points equivalent of those you have talked about NZD JPY. Hence I can see what they are on GBP JPY (I think).

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:51 GMT April 19, 2007

Hello there. The reason I highlighted oil share in percentage in total exports of Japan was to demonstrate the fact that importers matter as a whole regardless of the product or service.

Regards

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:57 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 18:49 GMT //

hello Ahe, it must be quite late there now - may I ask you how you discern the land of sand in GBPUSD - I mean is that some MA on Daily or a trendline - just interested from analytical point of view. TIA

dc CB 18:54 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
and by the way:

video)Wall St. Confidential: Cramer Says China Selloff No Problem Here - at TheStreet.com

Sofia Kaprikorn 18:51 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 18:31 //
hi komshu - liked that!
yes I just needed a heads up that Exp are on the offer and push it higher - and Imp are on the bid as trying to gt it lower..
on Oil - I said it Imports like 90% of its oil - not as percentage of the whole imports..
all the best to you neighbor - tourist season is close there

dc CB 18:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
MIB update. Briefing.com reports: CFC Countrywide Financial: Cramer on CNBC says he thinks MER will buy CFC.

fyi: Cramer is a CNBC "stock guru", CFC is a mortgage loan company...some say a major subprime loan co, so far basically untarred by the collapse.. MER is Merrill Lynch. Some would say that MER has a large exposure to the "mortgage market", some would deny.

In context: Dow makes record new high, S&P makes new high?????

parse the word mortgage....mort (death). gage (aka guage) measure.

Hong Kong Ahe 18:49 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 18:19 GMT April 19, 2007 - GBPUSD and GBPJPY are wild animals. Athens (Trendways) is more expertise than me to trace its move (also by his model). 3 factors are influencing and the most at current time frame is the expectation of BOJ rate hike. But anyone knows BOJ will not hike rate within 9-12 months though Rumour Mills are spreading the news every month when it needs correction (profit-taking). So before big speculators getting their big profits, they will drive the market crazy first. I would see GBPUSD will go further 2.0380 (after breaking its 20 years high). The sandline of support is 1.9850/60 or if momentum is fast, it may dive to 1.9700. But it will only lead to another stronger wave to challenge another new high of GBPUSD. Sometimes it looks like we are now surfing in Pacific Ocean. GL & GT.

Bodrum OEE 18:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 18:09 GMT April 19, 2007

Please never mind. I asked the wrong question although the answer to what I wanted to ask is already clear in your posts. I apologize. Have a good day and thank you again.

Bodrum OEE 18:19 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 18:09 GMT April 19, 2007

I thank you for your precise expressions. Could you kindly share your view as to the equivalent of GBP/USD and EUR/JPY (guidence) regarding GBP/JPY ?

USA BAY 18:18 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG,

Thanks a lot for the explanation. Will try a short at aud/jpy after NY close, stop 100. thanks again. gt/gl

Hong Kong Ahe 18:09 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:58 GMT April 19, 2007 - Hi Bay, It is a good level to short here at the current time frame as there are 2 forces counter to each other now the Carry Speculators are scared to push it to new high again within this week (today and tomorrow). But I think the sandline of 96 will be in strong interest for the Carry Speculators loading again in large scale. Guiding if GBPUSD have strong support of 1.9908/1.9860.

USA BAY 17:58 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Do you see aud/jpy capping at 99 with gold and copper down. Do you think a short may work here for 95 as target. thanks

Hong Kong Ahe 17:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:13 GMT April 19, 2007
HONG KONG AHE, Can I have your view on nzd/jpy and aud/jpy please. tia

Hi Bay, the pattern will repeat what happened 24hrs ago, NZDJPY is now recovered from its low to 88.06 and staying awaiting for "somebody" to move first. It will go down again to test 87 before Asian Morning session. Watch the level, it will rise again around Swiss Market Opening and back to the current level. Level guiding refer to the move of EURJPY as leading indicator. GL & GT.

USA BAY 17:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
dc cb,

tick and trin, LOL. gt/gl

Atlanta South 17:51 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
VAN/CANADA
Ref 17:43 if your referring to flow info that might be hard to
come by unless you have a bank connection. If I'm wrong I'm
sure someone here will be kind enough to correct me & give you the correct info. Gt

dc CB 17:45 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 17:39 GMT April 19, 2007

As an index trader watching Stox, remarkable resiliance today against the Asian Contagian, if I were a MIB theorist while listening to the hearings....well you know.

But beyond that, it still seems that the USD/JPY can be traded watching Tick And Trin reading. lol...that's a trend!

VAN/Canada 17:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Does anyone know if there is a place on the web where a person can view the amount of money for any given pair which is being bought or sold around the world. Or does such a thing even exist? Thanks

USA BAY 17:41 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

If nzd/jpy breach 88.30, then 90 and 92 next, but I am sceptical and see a correction to 86 area. gt/gl

USA BAY 17:39 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
dc cb,

resumes for gonzales position, lol, thats equivalent to getting stuck to a bad trade for a very, very, very long time.

dc CB 17:37 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
if your need a distraction for the rest of the afternoon, listen and count the number of times you hear
"I have searched my mind and I just do not recall.....""

Resumes at 2pm est


Alberto Gonzalez

The Netherlands Purk 17:34 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
f..k i do not have a plan now the loonie has hit the target... it seems to me that if pattern continues we end up at the 11260's if pattern is broken we will meet 11330 tomorrow. Play the range !

Dhaka Rafique 17:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sorry Sirs.I did not mean to goof up.Its just that I did not understand when ABHA said about the positions.Apologies

dc CB 17:26 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Here's one we haven't heard about in a while.


Science Daily reports that: "In a paper in the May issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases, an international team of researchers, including University of Maryland professor Steven Salzberg, report the first ever large-scale sequencing of western genomes of the deadly avian influenza virus, H5N1... The broad dispersal of the different forms of the virus throughout the different countries over a relatively short period of time points to the possibility of human movement, rather than wild birds as the reason for the quick spread of the H5N1."

hk ab 17:25 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
this eur/gbp signaling the soon reached 1.40 of uer soon.

hk ab 17:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR 17:06 GMT April 19, 2007
Paramo ECB , not concerned about level of Euro

PAR, could it be another buy the rumour sell the fact, saying not concerned but selling tonnes of it at the same time?

Halifax CB 17:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Dhaka Rafique 17:07 GMT April 19, 2007
My suggestion would be to do nothing unless you see it breaking out of this triangle, one direction or the other. I'm ignoring the pair, as usual :)

jkt-aye 17:19 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bay 17:01 ... i don't know anything abt funnymental.
my magnetic on 4H show 86.10, but breach of 88.30 cud make a different story. gtgl

USA BAY 17:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
HONG KONG AHE,

Can I have your view on nzd/jpy and aud/jpy please. tia

madrid mm 17:12 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Dhaka, fwiw, and don t take it wrongly but this is the wrong question to ask. You need to have a trading plan. If we knew that, we would be all rich by now. 8-)

Dhaka Rafique 17:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
With regard to the Yen can anyone tell me in simple terms whether we see it going up or down against the dollar

PAR 17:06 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Paramo ECB , not concerned about level of Euro .

ABHA FXS 17:03 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy....
short 1 postion at 237.00
short 2 postion at 237.38
short 3 postion at 237.76
target 232.50

usdjpy....
short 1 postion at 118.26
short 2 postion at 118.46
short 3 postion at 118.65
target 117.08

USA BAY 17:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
JKT-AYE,

I am also thinking of short nzd/usd at 7440/50 level with stop 7500. What do you think of nzd/jpy. I see more unwinding of carry trades today. tia

CT Cris 17:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Randall El 16:42 GMT April 19, 2007
======
stupid nr 3
====
at what price you are telling to sell?
as in my call I mentioned the decline to 20020.and I asked to buy after each dip.

jkt-aye 16:56 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
is it ok to try build a mini block on short kiwi from here with stop abv 7500 targeting 7310. GEP or anyone ? tia

Bodrum OEE 16:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia 14:20 GMT April 19, 2007

One addition Kaprikorn, oil share in Japanese imports is around 35% if I am not wrong.

Zeus

I enjoy the animated posts. Colors a monetary environment.


I leave now with best wishes.

Randall El 16:42 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 16:22 GMT April 18, 2007
CT Cris 16:15 GMT April 18, 2007
=====
gbp.usd is in uptrend for midterm trading...it may reach 20200,
within the coming days , it is preferable to buy after each dip.


Caution! This could mean Sell then sell some more as an A,B,C,X explanation later- either way flip a coin and watch him dance later as usd.jpy 120 is coming- exactly as he said and it turned out to really be a sell signal instead!!!
==============================================
It was better to sell then sell again AND he is already dancing again! EXACTLY like I said.

Said my peace- Goodnight!

USA Zeus 16:33 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Analista Fx 15:24 GMT April 19, 2007

Roger that C-tower. Switching to super stealth mode as Blackbird-Z refuels and maneuvers to avoid the MIB's and Z-USDollar attacks.
Z out

USA Zeus 16:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Ab- Thx

hk ab 16:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
in the past few days, it's undoubtedly, there's a clean trendy action in dlr/cad when you see the 5 dma respected heavily with bare breaches.... GL and GT.

RIC fxq 16:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Odd mixed bag out of Phila Fed, current soft, expectations look better. who knows

Philly Fed indicates 3rd month of weak growth
12:07 PM ET, Apr 19, 2007 - By Rex Nutting - 21 minutes agoWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The manufacturing sector in the Philadelphia region expanded slowly in April for the third straight month, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported Thursday. The Philly Fed diffusion index was unchanged at 0.2 in April after 0.2 in March. Readings above zero in the index indicate that a majority of firms surveyed said they were expanding. The new orders index rose to 2.8 from 1.9. The shipments index fell to 4.3 from 6.8. The prices paid index rose to 24.3 from 21.8. The future activity index rose to 25.8 from 17.4.

CT Cris 16:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
as I said , usd.chf rose above 12050 , soon will drop.

USA Zeus 16:25 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 16:14 GMT April 19, 2007
ab
What means this 5DMA-Special new weapons platform upgraded from 4DMA?

LKWD JJ 16:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
is it time to reseel usdjpy again ? this level was good for a good few pips last night into the am.gbpjpy has not rtraced the move as much as $y has . but gbp didnt move against usd either.

hk ab 16:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
despite anything happened, dlr/cad didn't even move to that 5 dma still....gl

Bodrum OEE 16:08 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 16:06 GMT April 19, 2007
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:20 GMT April 19, 2007

Apologies and correction (dear komsu)

(2)Importers then lean on the Bid - they defend the high end since they Jap imports more than 90% of its oil?
is this scenario correct - please comment it..


The question was not to me yet I see it was not answered. Here is my comment if it is of any interest:

The first part made sense. The second (above marked so) too, yet not just because Japan has to import 90& of its oil however, that, and (plus) as importers' purchasing power increase with higher valued JPY regardless of product or service.

I wish you and all a very good day.

Bodrum OEE 16:06 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:20 GMT April 19, 2007

(2)Importers then lean on the Bid - they defend the high end since they Jap imports more than 90% of its oil?
is this scenario correct - please comment it..


The question was not to me yet I see it was not answered. Here is my comment if it is of any interest:

The first part made sense. The second (above marked so) too, yet not just because Japan has to import 90& of its oil however, that, and (plus) as importers' purchasing power increases a higher value JPY regardless of product or service.

I wish you and all a very good day.

Como Perrie 16:05 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Just of note to my externations is that we were just 50 pips away from a crash of the usdindex....and am bit sick of reading model, macro, a hedge fund collapse here and there, or that ecb or fed or whoelse would be flooding the news without having clearly any reason of what the dangerous heck is going on onto markets..

beware out there

mind be wrong but if am right most might get pissed off

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:04 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well Dr. Zeus, seems that $CH is running out of steam... but, it's a Wild West story as with the rest of the market these days.

Como Perrie 15:58 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
excuse the abuse here...taking off, enough today for me this short sited game of equilibrium of apparent market stability...can't digest those multileveraged non sense need of having tight ranges globally...going a bit backhome to see the river flowing, is almost the same

bibi

Como Perrie 15:56 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Model accounts is when the market analysts and newswriters do not understand why traders on behalf of bought or sold ballistic or silently

Como Perrie 15:54 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Macro accounts is another name for central banks.

Como Perrie 15:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
today for as an excuse they used liquidity gaps...and they will use more of that... source is one forex us top liquidity provider broker confirmed me earlier in a separate chat bids and offers disappeared and blop a 60 pips in seconds and justified per the rules... so at least a 100 would you hold or establish longer days position ..forget to pick that as the story goes the same the other way around price will jump and change after your request of quotes

Como Perrie 15:49 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
they will try to drag down many people in the months ahead.. so wide wide if multidays or else just pippy here pippy there ...as some psychologists say or buddihst monks ..in the moment with your karma

Como Perrie 15:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
suggest to use a 100 pips stop of more ...or they will go for yours if that is a larger time term position...

Halifax CB 15:45 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Analista Fx 15:42 GMT April 19, 2007
Maybe, but Big Bird is flying at 1.1350 or so, and he's carrying Mr. Snuffleupagus.....

Makassar Alimin 15:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
nice bounce we had for usdjpy, adding short @ 118.38, stops altogether 118.83

Analista Fx 15:42 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 15:28 GMT April 19, 2007
Yeah, but watch for a flock of birds around 1.1305, Even fancy jets go down when they get one of those in the intake....

usdcad has missils to destroy those birds! ;)

Halifax CB 15:33 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:25 GMT April 19, 2007
Well, at least in theory :)

Halifax CB 15:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Analista Fx 15:24 GMT April 19, 2007
Yeah, but watch for a flock of birds around 1.1305, Even fancy jets go down when they get one of those in the intake....

UK Alex 15:26 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Macro accounts closing out positions on $/Yen rallies.

Halifax CB 15:25 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
NYAM - OTOH, hedge funds would see an enormous, low risk profit potential in colluding with the G7 FM's, as versus the deliberate undermining of their positions (say, by increasing volatility), and especially the threat of regulation if they refused. Personally, I think the two should be locked in separate cages, and allowed no communication; but I fear they are going (for the next few years) to be more or les treated as gently as the industrial robber barons of a century ago were....

Mtl JP 15:25 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Only "wink wink" collusion allowed is by CBs. When they decide they need to somehow re-position market anchor of rate expectaions (be they exchange or interest).

Analista Fx 15:24 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:13 GMT April 19, 2007
Z-tower says Blackbird-Z is all clear to climb to elevation USD/CAD 1.13

C-tower says the same! ;)

hk ab 15:24 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
today dlr/cad 5 dma missed by 5 pips...hope the news can get me there.

London NYAM 15:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
FMs would be fools to trust Hedge funds. They would tear them appart given the opportunity for some kind of collusion. I think this is a silly theory. Sorry no offence.

USA Zeus 15:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Z-tower says Blackbird-Z is all clear to climb to elevation USD/CAD 1.13

Halifax CB 15:12 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 14:11 GMT April 19, 2007
Probably with a little wink-wink-nudge-nudge going on. After all, if the hedge funds & FM's agree to a process (and really, they should be mortal enemies) look out for the rest of us....

GENEVA DS 15:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Time probably to prepare for some good shorts in USDCHF and USDCAD... if we close under 12050 usdchf... good downside potential with stop over 12135... first quick target 11100... usdcad should not go over 11400 for a quick move down to parity or lower... currencies to avoid , I guess.... EURUSD GBPUSD and AUDUSD... they could be in for a very long time consolidation phase around the levels they are now...

fairfield JC 15:06 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
So what would happen if another Chinese market crash occured like it did recently. I feels this time it might be worse. If that did happen what would the USD do against the cable, euro etc. In my mind the usd would stay strong against the yuan and gain on teh cable the euro and the cad etc. Any insight?

USA Zeus 15:05 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Guess ver 2.0 of GBP/USD was a good place to drop and stop shop. Now the battle rages. LOL

USA Zeus 15:03 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well yes there is oil and gold doing their thing we have mentioned for hrs. Everything is cyclical.

London NYAM 15:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Commo Perrie// Why not a little crashing in both. Otherwise a managed erosion...

HK Kevin 14:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading range for USD/JPY now at 117.80 and 118.60. Collect the pips as much as possible.

Singapore sp 14:55 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Is PAR the tapeworm inside BOJ?

Como Perrie 14:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Not only aseans want a soft dollar, that's just US politcians trying to manipulate masses as It's imperative for the leveraged US economy to survive... a dollar crash or a dow crash your choice

read the following analysis when time

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching what is being called a record high, there's no better time for Mike Maloney's wonderfully illustrated analysis, "The Dow Is Crashing." Maloney shows how the Dow's rise is an illusion caused by the decline of the U.S. dollar. You can find Maloney's analysis at his Internet site, GoldSilver.com, here:

http://goldsilver.com/the_dow_is_crashing.php

UK Alex 14:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
The yen is retreating from its impressive overnight gains against the dollar and the euro after Germany's finance minister said he sees no need for the euro group to discuss the euro, which some say is too strong and may be harmful for exporters and the overall euro zone economy.

Como Perrie 14:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:41 GMT April 19, 2007

that talk jpy was around in austrialia during tuesday.. It brang down heavy and then up again 119.70 where the smart money sold , then some stupids cached as I did

Como Perrie 14:42 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR 14:40 GMT April 19, 2007
Ecofin is just an additional charge to eurpean current accounts as per double bureucracy costs...go ahead french vote no to euro again pls

UK Alex 14:41 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:37 GMT// It means the talk of a May rate hike is just that 'talk' and consequently there is one less threat to the yen-carry-trade.

Como Perrie 14:41 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
the move on cad earlier as on some crosses interesting was absent of liquidity, even the big guys retreated from their institutional bid ask stabilizing offering... to me smells...but just smell in flatland here now...no ideas about future market developments anymore, a game of surviving more than financial markets It looks

PAR 14:40 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Ecofin to focus on strong euro in two day Berlin talks starting tomorrow .

Como Perrie 14:38 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
just a tehcnical note of not importance 117.50 big defense carry speculators orders would have lead to 115 in hours

Hong Kong Ahe 14:37 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:36 GMT April 19, 2007 LOL, Both. If not, someone will make some news from Rumour Mills.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:37 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 14:23 //
thnx - just read it - well if they buy all the Oil then its price decline will not erode their PPower.. thus keep CPI lower - which is good for Jap eco as they will not have to rise rates -> low FX rate -> Exports be good...
is this corrcect as scenario?

hk ab 14:36 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
thanks very much Ahe, will they finish level wise or timewise?

Hong Kong Ahe 14:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:17 GMT April 19, 2007
Ahe, do you see carry trade ready to resume?

Carry speculators are happy for the 200 pips up and down. EJ will be in range 161.50 - 159.60 (Thursday and Friday). GL & GT.

Como Perrie 14:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Again this week nothing a crash. My catastrohpe thoughts are negative for success and am thinking yet some months this yen to be undervalued and keeping bouncing when the hedge funds interest rate jpy bonds speculators are coming on the verge of disaster they act all togheter to survive. The theme has been seen again.... Will buy me a river where to wait those managers dead flowing one day.. for now they won again

The Netherlands Purk 14:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
e/j: tick tick to the high again.... we might see the high back again today. Than we did a round.. 16140ish 15960ish...
There was somebody earlier here that some levels where being bounced from was that HK ahe?
Keeping an eye on that bloke from now on...
Moved s/l on loonie at 11260, smile is on.

Atlanta South 14:27 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Yep, let the PIPS fall where they may. I've stayed out of the
up move on $/CAD & really can't tell what might be next. It
was very kind to me on the down trip, so I'm happy. I wish
you the best on the blocks. Gt

UK Alex 14:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:20 GMT// See me earlier post. Lower oil prices will depress Japan CPI.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:20 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR 14:11 //
hi - may I ask a simple q:
Jap is Exporter - so Kampo, BOJ, MIF and the Exporters all keep if offered - - so basicallly they are on the Offer side keeping the downside - levels like 118 ..
Importers then lean on the Bid - they defend the high end since they Jap imports more than 90% of its oil?
is this scenario correct - please comment it..

fairfield JC 14:19 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Lets just say if China were to impose some regulations on their stock markets, raise rates and do some other things....Which currency/currencies would benefit from that? The dollar? what would it do? Thanks for you input guys/gals. You all make trading very fulfilling.

hk ab 14:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Ahe, do you see carry trade ready to resume?

PAR//I don't know whether BOJ has intervened or not. But ONCE you don't appear, I know the short dlr/jpy signal has come.... toptrade.

PAR 14:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Heavy USDJPY buying by US institutions on rumors or leak that Plilly Fed will be much better than expected .

PAR 14:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Heavy USDJPY buying by US institutions on rumors or leak that Plilly Fed will be much better than expected .

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS //
great!
tnx - appreciate ur view.

UK Alex 14:11 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
* US Conference Board: Mar Leading Index +0.1%

PAR 14:11 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
BOJ intervention in USDJPY ?

RIC fxq 14:11 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:34 GMT April 19, 2007
Well, no currency is really freely traded (AFAIK). I heard that the heads of the leading hedge funds met with the various FM's after G7.

finmins/G7 requested that meeting as the ECB in particularly (GER spspecifically) wanted the issue addressed IIRC.

Gen dk 14:09 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

USA Zeus 14:09 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Oops- A little excited there!
Some cream skimmed at USD/CAD 1.1278

USA Zeus 14:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 13:46 GMT April 19, 2007
Yes Mr Purkson here we are. Busy day for the commodes. Call me on the YIM when you find your booties

UK Alex 13:40 GMT April 19, 2007
Thx for the info. :-)

Atlanta South 13:40 GMT April 19, 2007
Thx South. Only view now is to let it play out however it does.

Some Cream skimmed on USD/CAD 1.2778

GENEVA DS 14:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn..

first to mention, I am a Kaprikorn as well... I watch the technicals a lot and see the higher volatility in the short term, this might be a clear warning sign that the party will be probably over very soon... change the view ovr 100.50.... but we could have a U turn like rarely before...

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:03 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS //
hi - I was studying the AUDJPY chart - do you find the techs I pointed of any relevance - as you also express the unwind view?

GENEVA DS 13:58 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
SEEMS that the chicken in AUDJPY are fed once again, it probably will be the last time, before we can have a good barbecue with those hens.... gl 99 then good bye to 92

The Netherlands Purk 13:46 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:36 GMT April 19, 2007

Ah there you are.... ready for oily he? when i get home i will get a piece of that as well, if i can find my oilbooties....

UK Alex 13:45 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
On April 16th, Deputy BOJ Governor Kazumasa Iwata, who was the sole dissenter in February’s 8-1 vote for a rate hike (and hence the first deputy to vote against the Governor) said: “The current weakness in the CPI … is partly due to downward pressure from crude oil prices … But crude oil price declines are not necessarily bad for Japan’s economy" and could in fact be positive for domestic demand’.

UK Alex 13:42 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Enbridge Inc. (ENB) said late Wednesday that it restarted the portion of its crude oil pipeline from Canada to the U.S. that had been shut because of a leak on April 15.

UK Alex 13:40 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, Have been hearing for a while that oil was a sell on blips.

Atlanta South 13:40 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Zues....You should be collecting some creme from the tower
near term, but 1325-35 might cap it. Whats your view?

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:38 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
just been studying AUDJPY 2 hour chart with fibo levels.. interesting fact:
the impulse move from 93.80 to 100 - has retraced first to 98.57 (23.6%) - next level was the fresh low (close & next open) at 97.65 (38.2%)
the low is actually at 97.43 - just a few pips above the 200MA...

so present price is locked between the 23.6 and 38.2 fibos - last Low 98.62 may not turn into Resistance - the price has stalled there..

USA Zeus 13:36 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
There's that gold thingy again that was mentioned earlier- Looks like oil is getting more interesting as well. Lots of red on the screen to start the US equities session.

Halifax CB 13:34 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:20 GMT April 19, 2007
Well, no currency is really freely traded (AFAIK). I heard that the heads of the leading hedge funds met with the various FM's after G7, which would explain a lot. FWIW, I would guess that japan would like the $/Yen to trade in a 10% band around 110, and they are (over long periods) reducing the volatility of the pair.
Interesting chat - blue lines are 10 year leading edge averages, purple are 5 year, for usd/jpy. LINK

The Netherlands Purk 13:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
BTW Not taking orders in bugger now, i dont like the ticking to the high thing anymore, so i stay out... i stick with loonie and want to see it suffer for all the previous losses that i had. You can see in the archive from last year that i lost and wiped and lost and wiped....
Greed gone, anger gone, profit in...

The Netherlands Purk 13:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well the swissy shows me that she does not want 11990, but we will know for sure at exactly 1,25 hour...., so mib do your utmost best...
Moved s/l for loonie a bit in the plus now, dont want efforts to be for naught...

Tor Sappy 13:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus - What's your TP on USD/CAD. I'm looking for around 1.1470 -1.15 area?

PAR 13:20 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
My theory is that contrary to the Euro the yen is not a freely traded currency but is guided by the japanese government to capture market share .

GVI john 13:16 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Michigan start with the GVI Learning link at the top of the page.

UK Alex 13:15 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
PAR 13:10 GMT April 19, 2007
What is the precise mechanism for this? I'm interested to know what your theory is. TIA.

The Netherlands Purk 13:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
First half out in loonie. Second half for the moon at 11290....

USA Zeus 13:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
JP-7 fuel topped and kompressor ignitied. Blackbird-Z all clear for takeoff. Average USD/CAD cost 1.1246

Michigan 13:12 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Somebody pls help me,I came in newly in forex world I need you to lecture me on how to trade and how to analyse the market.My

NYC beyond_destiny 13:11 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Swissie may run 1%+ and close around 1% @ 1.212 today. Eye weekly open 1.2145 and big R @1.218-20.

Likely range bounding between 1.2045-80---1.2180-200 with next two week...

UK Alex 13:10 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:53 GMT// Japan can't (or won't) let the yen appreciate because other Asian countries peg their rate to the dollar. China knows it has to revalue, but also has to consider what it is going to do with all those dollars it holds. For this reason alone, China won't want the Fed to cut early as it needs more time to diversify. The euro is overvalued, but what can be done about this?

PAR 13:10 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Looks like Kampo is using the big Us investment banks in cooperation with BOJ and Fed to prevent yen from getting too strong .

Halifax CB 13:05 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sorry fxq, misread your post. Too much time in front of the screen....

Halifax CB 13:02 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
RIC fxq 12:59 GMT April 19, 2007
By whom?

RIC fxq 12:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 12:53 GMT

interesting idea but just try convincing Juncker, Garganas, et al. the EUro is overvalued.

Halifax CB 12:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 11:59 GMT April 19, 2007 I wonder if we are going to get into a bit of competitive devaluation on the part of Japan, with ref. to China. While the two countires didn't compete in the market (with Japan focussing on the higher end, and China th lower), China's low exchange rate didn't matter. But as China moves up the quality scale and starts cutting into Japanese exports, Japan has to lower it's FX rate, particularly with respect to Europe (as both countries have more dollars right now than they probably want). If Europe decides to jump on the bandwagon and try to force it's rate down, it could be fun. All in theory, of course....

madrid mm 12:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
so far the euro/usd of yesterday high is keeping the pair in cheek @ 1.3615sh

London Mamun 12:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
CLOSED FTSE long from 6340

USA Zeus 12:46 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well here we are with USD/CAD in a fresh Kompressor phase waiting for the order. The new phase on the others as previously mentioned seems to have taken hold.

madrid mm 12:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
ECB mut be confusing for our English cyber traders...

English Cricket Board or European Central Bank ?

8-)

Aus Stu 12:40 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
nj jf 12:31 GMT April 19, 2007
Yes I'm hearing you mate, might ride it out tonight & see how it pans out this time( not sure if this makes me dumb or dumber LOL). Stopped out last night which was very frustrating given the movements today, more unwinding to come IMHO

Gt

nj jf 12:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
stu that was reason i closed out some yen cross trades - just like dumb and dumber again today.

Aus Stu 12:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Here we go again it seems, buy yen during asia & early europe sell yen during NY session

RIC fxq 12:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 11:59 GMT

not just small unhedged ones, VW exec was all over Japan's currency policy earlier.

Mtl JP 12:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Alex 11:59 / how angry are they ? is there pitch-fork `n molotov-cocktail wielding crowd gathering at Parliamen's door ?

The Netherlands Purk 12:18 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Swissy on the edge here: nosedive under 120 with long chances at 11980-90 or runaway to 12040 again.
Dont just long at those levels, let it jump a few times, there are more chances....

UK Alex 11:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 11:50 GMT// Rising tide of anger from European exporters -- especially the small unhedged ones -- is causing some concern ahead of Ecofin.

Atlanta South 11:55 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike
Tks, now I've got to find the address. I have it somewhere.
Always enjoyed following your updates, so when time allows
do some updating. Tks again & gt.

London 11:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Chinese Toys Top New List Of EU's Dangerous Products
Dangerous goods, particularly from China, taken off the market more than doubled over the past two years, the European Commision reported Thursday.
About 48% of the banned products were produced in China.

GVI john 11:51 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

CT Cris 11:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 11:32 GMT April 19, 2007
Ramat Afal SBS 08:50 GMT April 19, 2007
===
gbp.usd still in uptrend for the mid term , it may rise now for 20050-60.
usd.chf
====
it is prefereable to sell @ 12050-40..and tp 12000
===
gbp.usd buy another if decline at intervals 25-30 pips.

Halifax CB 11:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
A little manipulation in EUR/JPY? This Plot might indicate so...The blue line is a leading edge 1 year average, with (separtely calculated) plus and minus std's (dashed) in blue, and a 2 month leading average, and a trendline since the last big dip in Eur/JPY. The one year leading edge has (until the big dip) been remarkably solid.Link

However, this being April (a month that has seen some good eur/jpy crashes in the past), how long this will continue is a mystery....

GVI john 11:49 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3579	118.61	1.2053	2.0056	1.1286	0.8360	161.06
High	1.3617	119.03	1.2091	2.0133	1.1340	0.8375	161.63
Low	1.3557	118.11	1.2025	2.0016	1.1265	0.8316	160.42
04/18/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/18/2007					
5 day 	1.3541	119.31	1.2117	1.9932	1.1323	0.8332	161.29
10 day	1.3471	119.23	1.2160	1.9810	1.1403	0.8268	160.48
20 day 	1.3404	118.62	1.2163	1.9746	1.1493	0.8184	158.93
50 day 	1.3261	118.66	1.2231	1.9584	1.1619	0.7989	157.33
100 day	1.3167	118.95	1.2265	1.9596	1.1645	0.7910	156.60
200 day	1.2962	118.03	1.2342	1.9238	1.1454	0.7760	153.00
							

USA Zeus 11:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike-
Hope you did not open an account with that Egyptianfx spammer seen earlier where it must be all about playin "kids games""-


USA Zeus 22:57 GMT April 18, 2007

First lines in the "about" page of the egyptianfx...
"Beaver(bucket shop) Inc. — When Money Makes Money...
People play different games. It can be kids games it can be games for adults."

Syd 11:39 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
BAYONNE, France (AP)--Three explosive devices targeted buildings in southwest France's Basque country

moscow mike 11:38 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South, thanks for putting some interest there. I just checked, it is still online LOL

Unfortunately did not have much time to do any updates since October 10, but if i do will let you know

GT

moscow mike 11:35 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 11:31 GMT April 19, 2007
Resting, but seems my broker smoothing ticks with moving average LOL

Atlanta South 11:35 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike
Is your blog still in use? Tks & gt.

CT Cris 11:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Ramat Afal SBS 08:50 GMT April 19, 2007
===
gbp.usd still in uptrend for the mid term , it may rise now for 20050-60.
usd.chf
====
it is prefereable to sell @ 12050-40..and tp 12000

USA Zeus 11:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 11:29 GMT April 19, 2007
Did you have a resting order or tried to hit your buttons?

The Netherlands Purk 11:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well NN was there at 11233 for a nice buy. If i am correct we should see 11290 again. 11222 can ruin this. So longs are in play stop already at be.

The Netherlands Purk 13:35 GMT April 18, 2007
Loonie: long orders will be again at 11230-40.... so take advantage of that. MIB might be moving it a bit...

moscow mike 11:29 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 11:08 GMT April 19, 2007
You are lucky, my order was not executed at 1230...

USA Zeus 11:27 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Ok- sliced off a little more @ 1.1255 to free up some small add-ons. Tower looks straight and tall.

Atlanta South 11:27 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Standing on the side in waiting for an explosion UP when &
if it happens. You should see some nice gains go up. Gt

USA Zeus 11:25 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Tower looks like it is getting a firm foundation. May use it as an air traffic control tower to launch the blackbird.

USA Zeus 11:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 11:01 GMT April 19, 2007

Good job South! Building looks almost complete here.
Now need to set new catcher's mitt buy order for another shopping spree lower. Working those #'s now. Looks like just below 1.12.

Let's see what's next.
GT

USA Zeus 11:18 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
No question this USD/CAD is like Murcielago.

USA Zeus 11:16 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well that was quick enough.
Sold some off @ 1.1250. Now can triple down at next stop lower.

USA Zeus 11:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
New USD/CAD cost = 1.1246.

Can add a few on nibbles with 1 double down to go before a stop is determined.

USA Zeus 11:08 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD Plunge Purchase Plan executed en mass 1.1225

Melbourne Qindex 11:08 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The next targeting level is 1.1203.


Melbourne Qindex 08:06 GMT April 19, 2007
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The market is going to tackle 1.1270. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 1.1245 // 1.1270.

London Misha 11:05 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
CPI just came out on CAD

London TC 11:02 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
usd/cad??????????

Atlanta South 11:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Closed short $/CAD position taken overnight for some nice
gains. Staying out of this pair for now & being satified with
gains so far. still getting short signal from my method, but
just not willing to commit @ this time.

Wow...As I type this $/CAD plunging lower. Zeus you can
add to the project.

Gt to all.

Plovdiv Gotin 10:55 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Cable/ If 1.9997 hold -->2.0095. If not --->1.9982/70/50/27/23...1.9896/80/55/05...1.9795/80/65. GT.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:54 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The dollar is mostly lower in Europe Thursday as carry trades are reversed on fears China will increase interest rates again soon.
Higher interest rates in China will raise expectations of a faster appreciation in the yuan, which will help make Japanese goods more competitive.
As a result, investors, who were already looking for an excuse to take profits on recent sharp losses in the Japanese currency, started to buy the yen back again.
The whole shift in sentiment was evident in a rise in risk aversion, with the UBS risk index rising back to -0.42 from -0.51 Wednesday.

Syd 10:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sell AUD/CHF To Target 0.9815 - Calyon
Calyon advises selling AUD/CHF at 1.0015 to target 0.9815 with a stop loss at 1.0125. Bank thinks the recent renewed rise in the cross seems exaggerated compared to developments in interest rates. Cross now at 1.0016

Ramat Afal SBS 10:26 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS, read cable, is policy on cable buy on dips still intact,
if yes, is 199.8 a stop reverse?.
$/CHF, do you expect a break bellow 1.20 ?
it looks as if we are in for a change and the the low yeilders are for a break up.
many thanks for your kindness to share your so helpful thoughts.

UK Alex 10:21 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Some of the big $ earners in the FTSE sold off today which means dollar weakness is most likely here to stay.

UK Alex 10:19 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Chinese trying their hand at market smoothing by delaying data release was a smart move.

moscow mike 10:16 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Carefuly shorted cable at 2.0033 few minutes ago with 50 pip stop.

Covered half of core shorts on e/j from 162...

The Netherlands Purk 10:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
BTW the pattern in loonert is still very much intact. I still believe that the buyers are somewhere at 30-40... just look at the bounce how big it is at 11242....
Tonight i will try what has been done yesterday. Taking a few pips from the gates of Clogland...

The Netherlands Purk 10:11 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well the e/u is doing 13593 for the zillionst time, there is a possibility that we see the 13644-50 today if they have another back pocket. Who are they btw?
I should say that e/j is a sell, so i try one a little bit higher otherwise i will be stopped out...

UK Alex 10:02 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, Do you think Washington Mutual is a good sell?

Bodrum OEE 10:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 09:59 GMT April 19, 2007

I see. Thank you.

UK Alex 09:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
No idea. Probably similar to last time.

Bodrum OEE 09:54 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
UK 09:50 GMT April 19, 2007

Hello Alex. Do you have any idea about how much of an increase is at sight? Thanks

Syd 09:54 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 09:50 GMT heard today it will be just before a holiday which is coming up

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USDCAD - is testing the recent Support at 1.1263 - already dipped under to 57..

11:00 GMT - CAD Core CPI - if we see above 2.3%... we are going for Oil man's parity target... not outright of course.. maybe first stop at 1.1240.. then lower..

UK Alex 09:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China is hinting at another revaluation.

Syd 09:49 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CNY Dn; Tipped To Extend Losses

USD/CNY last bid/ask quote on OTC market down at 7.7163/7.7165 vs yesterday's 7.7216/7.7217, weighed by China's strong economic growth; pair likely to extend losses in coming sessions amid expectations of another rate hike by PBOC to cool economy, which would boost demand for yuan, says Shanghai-based trader with foreign bank,

"the yuan may test 7.7000 by the Labor Day holiday."

melbourne DC 09:46 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
watanabe acknowledging G7 statement signal intent for yen weakness to halt?

Syd 09:44 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
DIW: Germany Could Fall Into Recession If Euro At $1.70

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd - business as usual...

Syd 09:42 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China State Council: To Curb Rapid Growth In Housing Prices

Syd 09:39 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 09:32 feel the programe talks a lot of truth that the home lenders and estate agents fail to express , too interested in getting your money but not around to help when things turn sour, same old story

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd 09:05 //
nice tnx for this - here in my counrty he have just the same booming RE market - supply will soon outrun demand in big way..

Makassar Alimin 09:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
we are now at the support zone mentioned yesterday, usdjpy at 200 dema and has also tested channel support ard 117.60...so if this channel is to be respected then a bounce should follow, a determined break under though will alert us of the formation of SHS with huge implication if succesfully formed, good luck and good trades

Syd 09:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Dublin Flip 09:23 personally I feel its extremely an eye opening for the younger generation that take on a mortgage without realizing the consequences. It can destroy lives programes such as that at least makes they think twice before the leap.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:27 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
btw - what is seen on 1 &2 h is just reinforced on 4h - EUR & GBP really overextended...
- - if what was publishen in the start of this week on dailyfx about the EUR Fibo turn date - it is a possible scenario for Friday to see a large reversal...

USDJPY on 4 h - touching the lower border of upward channel...

Dublin Flip 09:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd I saw that on monday night. Reagradless of whether I think the prooperty market is due a pullback, it is the worst piece of senationalised one sided journalism I've ever seen.
If one thought "The day after tomorrow" was a balanced documentary film addressing the risks of global warming you'll love it -LOL

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM //
tnx & appreciate ur comment - just wanted to discuss things i see..
you know yesterday I saw this H&S in GBPJPY on Hourlies - RS at 238.50 - neck at 236.60..
I thought it will take more time to consolidate in the RS and to short it if I got a confirmation by not Going above 238.50/70...
woke up today and saw it already done under the neck..
GT!

Syd 09:19 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Teetering dangerously highLINK

Auckland peat 09:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
although obviously theres a lot of extended pairs around right now, this increase in the fear factor over the last couple of days could really be good opportunities to reposition for continuation of the underlying trends which I dont think have been broken yet, tho a little testing going on for sure.

hk ab 09:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
ahe, excellent call on yen crosses. My last bit of worry is a collapsing stock mkts to induce a 2nd wave of yen and yen crosses diving. your e/j support will be watched like hawk. THANKS!

hk ab 09:10 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
today, I will put a short limit @ that dlr/cad 5 dma again to accumulate position.

Syd 09:05 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Anyone got an hour to spare documentary here worth watching,
Original documentary. There is a good section on the last UK property crash in the early 1990s and the 1980s halfway through ..


http://www.rte.ie/tv/futureshock/av_20070416.html

London NYAM 09:04 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:44 GMT April 18, 2007

Sophia Kap// Sorry I missed your post completely….London NYAM 10:58 //

“would you agree that EURUSD & GBPUSD on 2 hour -
have completed a typical 5 wave impulse move from April 9-10... with the 5-th wave a bit extended especially in GBP?”

That is the problem with EW it is highly subjective as you know. I have the top at 2.01033 as the end of a 3 wave sequence from the Apr 9 lows. The correction now I count as wave 4 which will definitely be the wrong count if it breaks the 1.9817 (Apr 11) wave I high on my count. My count will also probably be wrong if we break the 1.9928 level as the 50% retracement on the start of the wave three that I see and damaged but intact if it breaks the 1.9976 (.382). Since I am looking for a resumption of the underlying trend and 3rd times a charm move into new 2+ levels.

I can’t comment on Eur at this time I’m afraid. I wish you the best.

Auckland peat 09:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
short AUD/NZD 1.1242 40 pip stop - not really enough but I am a sand fly :+) this one did break out downwards but the correction may kill me , chance I take

long Eur$ 1.3591 30 pip stop.

Syd 08:54 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
4CAST Chris Furness says Japan have considerable amount of large bond redemption running through to next week which will see fiurther downside on the carry trades

Ramat Afal SBS 08:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
CT CRIS, read cable, is policy on cable buy on dips still intact,
if yes, is 199.8 a stop reverse?.
$/CHF, do you expect a break bellow 1.20 ?
it looks as if we are in for a change and the the low yeilders are for a break up.
many thanks for your kindness to share your so helpful thoughts.

Sofia Kaprikorn 08:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM //
hi can I ask u smtg on EW as I've seen u follow this? I posted yesterday but maybe u didn't see it.

Syd 08:34 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Will Cable History Repeat Itself?
Cable is starting to correct lower, and if history is any guide the decline could be large, says ABN Amro. The last two occasions cable reached the current heights major pullbacks followed, down to $1.5995 in 1991 and $1.5210 in 1992, so it's no wonder bulls are getting a little jittery, says the bank. Looking at the hourly charts ABN says the uptrend is still intact and will only be damaged below $1.9880, the catalyst for another large decline.

Syd 08:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
JPY Gains Driven By Carry Unwind, Bearish USD


0827 GMT [Dow Jones] Recent JPY gains on carry trade unwinding, also reflecting broad USD bearishness may have further to run. Momentum to close JPY shorts is building, will grow on any risk aversion that may follow any policy tightening from China in wake of above-expectation 1Q GDP. USD/JPY may also trigger large head-and-shoulder topping formation, Dow Jones technical analysis shows. Break and consecutive closes below 115.55, would potentially target move to Y108.90. USD/JPY last at 117.75

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Japan's Watanabe says yen is not too weak just now. Says yen moves are "market determined". Says has no worries about yen "from domestic perspective".

Gen dk 08:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Melbourne Qindex 08:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 08:10 GMT - GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle is 1.9890* - [1.9988] - 2.0086* - 2.0135 - 2.0184 - 2.0282* // 2.0355. Keep an eye on GBP/JPY at the same time.

London NYAM 08:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Thanks Q. I very much appreciate it.

Melbourne Qindex 08:21 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 08:10 GMT - GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle is 1.9890* - [1.9988] - 2.0135 - 2.0086 - 2.0184 - 2.0282* // 2.0355. Keep an eye on GBP/JPY at the same time.

Melbourne Qindex 08:21 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 08:10 GMT - GBP/USD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle is 1.9890* - [1.9988] - 2.0135 - 2.0184 - 2.0282* // 2.0355. Keep an eye on GBP/JPY at the same time.

London NYAM 08:19 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Lovely.
Long USDGBP 2.0035

GENEVA DS 08:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
REVERSAL DAY for USD today?

Half the planet seems to be watching for the big USD reversal today... chartists.., astologers, dealers... myself (!), it seems to me that already too many people see this big fortune coming in USD ? Any thoughts out there? ..

London NYAM 08:10 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Dr Q any chance of a view on GBP?

Melbourne Qindex 08:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 03:05 GMT April 13, 2007
USD/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : The pattern of my monthly cycle frequency chart indicates that the market can easily move between 117.72 and 119.89. The mid-point reference of 117.72 - 119.89 is 118.80. The distribution profile of my monthly cycle probability chart suggests that the market has a good chance to tackle 115.55. The lower barrier of the monthly cycle is located at 114.74 // 115.55.


Melbourne Qindex 08:48 GMT April 11, 2007
USD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1597. The odds are high that the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412 will be tackled. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.1400 and the market may test the extreme trading range of 1.1040 - 1.1226 if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412.

Melbourne Qindex 08:06 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The market is going to tackle 1.1270. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 1.1245 // 1.1270.

Bahrain Bahrain1 08:04 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
$CAD: Canada CPI will give us the direction for today. GL

Melbourne Qindex 07:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/CAD (Weekly Cycle) : The market is going to tackle 1.5279. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 1.5223 // 1.5279.

hk ab 07:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
if anyone is looking for a trend to follow, dlr/cad 5 dma to short is a good one.....fwiw.

London NYAM 07:58 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well in any case. A nice ABC correction off the 2.0133 highs shows an ideal C 1.181 plummer extension lay at 1.9981 with a low set in at 1.9983 that suggests the correction may already be over. Looking for a long for todays trade.

London NYAM 07:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Im gettong GBP at 2.0027 on my screen while ticker is on 2.0045 anyone else getting issues?

Syd 07:44 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Repeat Of Feb/Mar EUR/JPY Clearout Likely-Mizuho

EUR/JPY has had a fairly heavy drop, and Mizuho Corporate bank's Nicole Elliott thinks this is the start of another big clearout to match that seen in February/March, when the rate dropped from 159.60 to 150.70. Now at 160.20, she favors selling any bounce to 160.80, adding to shorts around 161.50, with a stop above 162.55 for short-term downside targets of 159.50 and 158.00.

Lahore FM 07:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Chinese gdp 11.1 perecent y/y.

Como Perrie 07:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
The Mayans may be expecting the end of the world in 2012 but the Tibetans, it seems, are not.

Syd 07:40 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
About 50,000 farmers rely on the Murray-Darling system to sustain sheep, cattle, wheat, barley, cotton, grapes, rice, citrus, stonefruit, vegetables and other crops. Agriculture and associated industries make up about 12% of Australia's GDP.
Even if rain falls, farmers must wait until July or August to find out how much - if any - irrigation water they will be allocated. Australia's ongoing drought is expected to wipe 0.75 percentage point off the nation's GDP growth in 2006-07, according to the official forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics.
CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--Without heavy rain within the next six to eight weeks, farmers in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin will no longer be able to irrigate their crops, putting at risk 40% of the nation's agricultural and grazing income.
Australian Prime Minister John Howard Thursday announced that a review of the crucial river system, which spans five of the eight states, had found dangerously low levels of water.
If substantial rain doesn't fall by mid-May, Howard said water would only be available for "basic human consumption" in the towns and cities that rely on Murray-Darling. The South Australian capital Adelaide, the biggest city to rely on Murray-Darling for its drinking water, is at the end of the river system. "We should all pray for rain because the situation for the farmers of Australia in the irrigation area of this country, the Murray-Darling Basin, is critical," Howard told reporters in Canberra.CANBERRA (Dow Jones)--Without heavy rain within the next six to eight weeks, farmers in Australia's Murray-Darling Basin will no longer be able to irrigate their crops, putting at risk 40% of the nation's agricultural and grazing income.

Australian Prime Minister John Howard Thursday announced that a review of the crucial river system, which spans five of the eight states, had found dangerously low levels of water.

If substantial rain doesn't fall by mid-May, Howard said water would only be available for "basic human consumption" in the towns and cities that rely on Murray-Darling. The South Australian capital Adelaide, the biggest city to rely on Murray-Darling for its drinking water, is at the end of the river system. "We should all pray for rain because the situation for the farmers of Australia in the irrigation area of this country, the Murray-Darling Basin, is critical," Howard told reporters in Canberra. About 50,000 farmers rely on the Murray-Darling system to sustain sheep, cattle, wheat, barley, cotton, grapes, rice, citrus, stonefruit, vegetables and other crops. Agriculture and associated industries make up about 12% of Australia's GDP.
Even if rain falls, farmers must wait until July or August to find out how much - if any - irrigation water they will be allocated. Australia's ongoing drought is expected to wipe 0.75 percentage point off the nation's GDP growth in 2006-07, according to the official forecaster, the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics.

madrid mm 07:40 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 07:13 GMT April 19, 2007
welcome to my club 8-)

Syd 07:36 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China Govt: Economy Risks Overheating

Gen dk 07:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

moscow mike 07:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:59 GMT April 19, 2007
...When everybody loose believes He comes and walk over the lake...

Syd 07:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Risk Of China Rate Hikes Lift JPY


The risk of further rate hikes in China is working in the JPY's favor as China's GDP and CPI come in at 11.1% and 3.3%, respectively, both above their consensus forecasts of 10.3% and 2.7%. As RBC Captial Markets notes, anticipation of strong numbers had already knocked Asian stock markets sharply lower with the Nikkei down 1.7% and the Shanghai lost 4.5%. The reversal of carry trade left the AUD and NZD as the worst performing currencies in Asia. Now the EUR and USD are coming under pressure in Europe

Lahore FM 07:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
2.0041 and 2.0044 longs stoped at 05.

Como Perrie 07:20 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
You'll see european stocks most probably hit some this early session...3796 shangai nikkey 17667

Syd 07:16 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Investors are turning slightly more cautious again Thursday as the UBS Risk Aversion Index rises back to -0.42 from -0.51 on Wednesday. This is being reflected in a reversal of carry trades, with the JPY rising against the EUR and the USD.

Melbourne Qindex 07:15 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The center of the projected series is positioning at 118.21. The market is consolidating between 117.57 - 118.21 for the time being. The lower barrier is expected at 115.82 // 116.30.


Melbourne Qindex 03:05 GMT April 13, 2007
USD/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : The pattern of my monthly cycle frequency chart indicates that the market can easily move between 117.72 and 119.89. The mid-point reference of 117.72 - 119.89 is 118.80. The distribution profile of my monthly cycle probability chart suggests that the market has a good chance to tackle 115.55. The lower barrier of the monthly cycle is located at 114.74 // 115.55.

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Russian names bought GBPYEN and NZDYEN after China news.

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
CANBERRA JD 07:07 GMT April 19, 2007
Bahrain1. Try 210 for a good gbp/jpy buy.

Hi there.......
Anything can happen now......
Just keep watching the stocks market for direction. GL

Syd 07:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Carry trades suffered overnight as stocks took a tumble on worries over strong China CPI and GDP prints (actually CPI came in at 3.3% vs 2.8% expected, GDP at 11.1% vs 10.3% seen) which could turn the PBoC more hawkish. The Shanghai Composite index fell 5%, Nikkei down 1.7%, while the main European bourses open around 1% lower. For the currencies, JPY strengthened across the board, with profit taking trimming almost 200 sen of EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, the latter nudging cable momentarily back below 2.00. For Thursday, with only a light data slate on offer equities are likely to dominate.

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:10 GMT April 19, 2007 || Pearls of wisdom mm! Nice! Problem is, I'm still certain that I am uncertain...

Bodrum OEE 07:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain 07:05 GMT April 19, 2007


Bahrain 1 thank you again. I did not get into it as I was on mechanical efforts of technics. Have a good day all. Regards

madrid mm 07:11 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Toronto MRC 07:09 GMT April 19, 2007

it is always a question of interpretation i guess

madrid mm 07:10 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:07 GMT April 19, 2007

To paraphrase A Einstein, In the middle of uncertainties lies opportunity.

Melbourne Qindex 07:10 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The center of my weekly cycle projected series is positioning at 158.40. The upper barrier is located at 160.67 // 161.23.


Melbourne Qindex 06:13 GMT April 18, 2007
EUR/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : ... The normal monthly cycle upper limit is defined at 162.65. As shown in the projected series the market is retreating from the recent high of 162.43 and it is now tackling the barrier at 160.59 // 161.36. The distribution profile of my monthly cycle probability chart indicates that the market has a tendency to trade between 158.53 - 162.65. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market can penetrate through 158.53.

Toronto MRC 07:09 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 07:06 GMT April 19, 2007
So that is why Shanghai is down so much today? Rate increases were already in the equation.

madrid mm 07:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks tumbled the most in five weeks and the yen surged on concern a slide in Chinese shares will trigger a repeat of February's global rout.

China's benchmark CSI 300 Index fell 6.9 percent, the biggest decline since Feb. 27, after the government delayed a report on economic growth that may show the need for further interest rate increases. The yen rose as some investors stopped borrowing the currency to buy higher-yielding assets that carry greater risk.

Como Perrie 07:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
will be strange imo however...yet coupla things might go bit differently than we have been used too...mind the patterns and a good day... my eyes were too tired to follow this asean session,

CANBERRA JD 07:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain1. Try 210 for a good gbp/jpy buy.

The Netherlands Purk 07:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well the 50 pip bounces in e/j are back as well.....
So stops will be taken out in the rally, very impressive...

madrid mm 07:06 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
April 19 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy grew at a faster than expected 11.1 percent pace, powered by exports that have inflamed trade tensions and increased the risk of overheating.

Spending on factories and real estate accelerated in the first quarter, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 10.4 percent from a year earlier, the same as in the previous quarter.

Melbourne Qindex 07:06 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to tackle 1.3542. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 1.3505 // 1.3542.


Melbourne Qindex 11:47 GMT April 11, 2007
EUR/USD (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in my monthly cycle projected series the market is testing the upper barrier at 1.3439 // 1.3523. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 1.3523. The monthly cycle normal trading range is 1.3216 - 1.3662.

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:05 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 07:00 GMT April 19, 2007
Thank you very much for the information Bahrain1. Do you have any sell and buy point for GBPJPY in mind at all?


Hi.....
Already up my friend.....was very fast.....news from China...were very positave.

USA Zeus 07:04 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 06:57 GMT April 19, 2007

Thx Professor. Discipline in the system is the only way for any chance of success. Now to other phases of the plan.
cheers
GT to all
out for now

Como Perrie 07:03 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Morning all

You gotta go for truffles Zeus...:) Shangai stock down 6 pct
me had on some some too jewish stops and the music has been played in parts only, but do not care as am retraining myself to frontline, pfolios am sick of playing with maths.......

lovely profit taking just seen btw


Hello Bodroom are you a fundy type

Bahrain Bahrain1 07:02 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
1st wave of tsunami finished....when the next one?

Syd 07:02 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China 1Q GDP data beat views with growth of 11.1% on-year - fastest rise since 2Q06 - vs 10.3% expected in Dow Jones poll; compares with 4Q growth of 10.4%. Outcome raises chance of near-term tightening by PBOC with economists anticipating hike in either benchmark interest rates or reserve requirement ratio. Statistics agency adds March CPI +3.3% on-year vs 2.8% rise forecast, while PPI +2.7% vs February's 2.6% on-year gain

Syd 07:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China March Indus Output Up 17.6% On Year; Expected Up 15.4%
China 1Q National FAI Up 23.7% On Year
China March Urban FAI Up 26.8% On Year
China 1Q Urban FAI Up 25.3% On Year; Expected Up 23.3%
DATA SNAP: China March CPI Up 3.3% On Year; Seen Up 2.8%
China March Retail Sales Up 15.3% On Year
China March PPI Up 2.7% On Year Vs Up 2.6% In February

China March CPI Up 3.3% On Year; Market Expected U 07:00 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China March CPI Up 3.3% On Year; Market Expected Up 2.8%

Bodrum OEE 07:00 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain 06:26 GMT April 19, 2007

Thank you very much for the information Bahrain1. Do you have any sell and buy point for GBPJPY in mind at all?

USA Zeus 06:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Reminiscences of a (lucky) forex operator-

USA Zeus 20:40 GMT April 18, 2007
EUR/USD smells funny too. Look for it to trap then drop and stop shop.

USA Zeus 20:36 GMT April 18, 2007
GBP/USD smells like a trap- Look for this rally to fail below the high.

USA Zeus 20:14 GMT April 17, 2007
Smell indicator says that GBP/USD 2.0 is quite likely to be tested as it is the perfect place to drop and stop shop.

USA Zeus 03:01 GMT April 17, 2007
”Meanwhile AUD/USD smells like a sell on blip trade”

Melbourne Qindex 06:58 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Weekly Cycle) : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is able to trade below 1.9988 which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series. The lower barrier of weekly cycle is located at 1.9621 // 1.9694.censored

AZUSA 4x-ed 06:57 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 06:51 GMT April 19, 2007 || Nicely done Dr. Zeus! Starting to become envious of clog heritage... just as skillful at growing money as they are growing tulips!

Syd 06:56 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD down sharply on selling by European investors amid growing risk aversion following downturn in Asia stocks, says trader at Tokyo trust bank; "It appears that many players are reducing risks as European currencies have been too high." Adds, if stop-sell orders around 1.3550 triggered, pair may drop to 1.3520. Tips resistance at 1.3580 for now; last 1.3565. EUR/JPY falls in tandem; tipped in 159.30-159.80 band for now

Syd 06:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sally Auld, senior debt strategist at ANZ Bank, said carry trades fell out of favor in Asia with both the Australian and New Zealand dollars losing ground against the yen.

Speculative investors, who have ridden the Australian dollar's 9% rally over the last month, also looked for the door, she added.

The near-term fate of the Australian dollar will be set next week with the release of first quarter inflation data.
A survey by Dow Jones Newswires of 21 banks and economic forecasters this week suggested the CPI won't provide the RBA with a trigger to raise rates.

The consensus among economists is for a rise in core inflation of 0.6% in the first quarter, with the annual pace of core prices growth slowing to 2.8% from 3.0% in the fourth quarter.

Melbourne Qindex 06:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is able to trade below 235.14 which is the center of the weekly cycle projected series.


Melbourne Qindex 06:41 GMT April 16, 2007
GBP/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : The normal trading range of my monthly cycle is 226.74 - 239.49. As shown in the expansion series of (230.99 - 239.49), the market is tackling the barrier at 237.37 // 237.90. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through 235.24

USA Zeus 06:51 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Looks like it was one for the smell indicator!
cheers

Melbourne Qindex 06:49 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
I am sorry that I copied the previous postings directly from my front page.

Bahrain Bahrain1 06:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
easy money today. GL

Nigeria Basorun 06:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
any body on cable and mmh wat the last cot for cable

Melbourne Qindex 06:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD (Weekly Cycle) : As shown in my weekly cycle the market is tackling its lower barrier at 0.8257 // 0.8280.


Melbourne Qindex 23:30 GMT April 9, 2007
AUD/USD (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in the frequency chart of my monthly cycle the projected chart point at 0.8010 and 0.8193 has the same frequency numbers and this would indicate that the market can easily move between these two points, 0.8010 - 0.8193. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above 0.8193. The normal trading range of my monthly cycle is 0.7827 - 0.8377. On the other hand speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 0.8010.. Subscribe Now!

Melbourne Qindex 05:28 GMT April 10, 2007
AUD/USD : My weekly cycle indicates that the lower barrier is located at 0.8131 // 0.8153* and the upper barrier is expected at 0.8334* // 0.8357. In the mean time the market is going to consolidate between 0.8214* - [0.8244] - 0.8274* after it has overcome the projected resistance at 0.8193

USA Zeus 06:44 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Well Happy Day!

Amazing sometimes those clogs and their keen sense of knowledge. Need to keep an eye on them. Looks like USD/CAD umm well will not spoil that one.

As for the others this transition has been as smooth as butter. Then there is the next phase and on we go. Interesting development over there in gold after it went thru the kompressor.

Syd 06:42 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
At minus 0.42, vs minus 0.51 on April 18, UBS says its FX risk index indicates investors have become slightly more cautious; "the level of the index, however, still indicates healthy appetite for risk assets." In past 2 days, equity volatility has risen, USD/JPY volatility has increased and both emerging market, high-yield spreads over U.S. Treasurys have widened marginally. Notes rising risk aversion tends to hurt growth currencies like AUD, NZD, CAD and USD but help safe-haven JPY, CHF

CANBERRA JD 06:42 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
A very good day to be short aud... All the way baby all the wAY!

Melbourne Qindex 06:40 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY (Weekly Cycle) : The odds are high that the market will tackle 96.40. The lower barrier of my weekly cycle is located at 95.94 // 96.40.


Melbourne Qindex 02:12 GMT April 17, 2007
AUD/JPY (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is trying to tackle the extreme trading level of 99.88 - 101.25. The expansion of (95.76 - 101.25) indicates that the market is rejected from the barrier at 99.88 // 100.22 for the meantime. Speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through 98.05. A projected supporting barrier is expected at 96.79 // 97.13.

Bahrain Bahrain1 06:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Next to watch is the DAX and FTSE. GL

Bahrain Bahrain1 06:26 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 05:30 GMT April 19, 2007

Hi there....
ccy=currency sorry I should clarify.

Eastern European banks selling GBPYEN and NZDYEN.
take care. GL

The Netherlands Purk 06:24 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Interesting now in e/j: just look for borders and zones. 16018 is for up now and 15980 down. Next is 15940 and up the high of today and after that yesterday. Dont be fooled by all that down now, because it can be that the MIB just want better possies for buying. And they can do that all the way to 15530....

Syd 06:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei ends down 1.7% at 17371.97 as concerns over delayed release of China GDP data stoke fears of overheating in Chinese economy, triggering heavy futures selling, possible unwinding of carry trades as well. "Various factors hit index today... we have to keep watching carefully how forex will move overnight," says Mamoru Maeda, general manager at Chuo Securities. Global cyclical plays, exporters hit hardest in sell-off but 1470 of Topix's stocks fall against 206 gainers. Traders say investors will be watching Chinese data at 0700 GMT to gauge which way markets likely to move going forward

Syd 06:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
The euro plunged against the yen in Asia Thursday on heavy selling by overseas fund players amid growing wariness about its current high levels, and could fall below Y160 in the near term.

Traders said the European unit could fall to as low as Y158 on position adjustments ahead of Japan's long holidays starting at the end of April. Their uneasiness about the euro's rapid rise in recent weeks has also driven them to sell the single currency, they said.

"It appears that the euro/yen market has entered a correction phase," said Tokyo Forex and Ueda Harlow senior manager Masanobu Ishikawa.

"The euro surged at such a pace that players, now nervous, will likely keep selling to adjust or close their positions (of big euro-holdings)."

Syd 06:15 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Copper futures traded on Shanghai Futures Exchange sharply lower in afternoon session amid chatter 1Q economic data due 0700 GMT likely strong enough to lead to rate hike in short term, says Wang Zheng, analyst with Dalu Futures. Notes "the strong gains in past few sessions attracted speculative short-selling on data concerns,

Syd 06:14 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: China Copper Futures Down; Tightening Concerns

Mtl JP 06:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
(Dow Jones)--The Bank of Japan said Thursday the economy is recovering or expanding in all regions of Japan, thanks to high profitability in the corporate sector and solid domestic demand.

slowly, no: super slowly, and unevenly too.

Nikkei: -295.36, apparently "investors dumping high-tech and other export-focused issues on the weaker U.S. dollar against the yen."

RIC fxq 05:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
G Soros 05:51 GMT

cable = gbpusd

cable dollar redundant

madrid mm 05:57 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Rumours of upcoming PBoC Rate hike, possibly CNY reval and band widening by today or Friday, on talks of likely strong China Q1 GDP above 11%, with data release together with CPI, PPI, Industrial output, retail sales delayed today till 0700GMT, after the Shanghai stock market close. Shanghai stocks now -2.53%

PBoC mid-rate set CNY at 7.7199, its highest since July 2005 reval. USD/CNY hit new lows of 7.7175.

Rumours of BoJ May rate hike still doing the rounds, to bring Overnight Call Rate target to 0.75% from current 0.50%.

BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui says BoJ will take appropriate monetary steps by examining economy and prices. Japan economy is expanding gradually and will achieve sustainable growth. Japan CPI is expected to stay in positive trend.

Reuters : New merger and acquisition rules to take effect in May mean more hostile takeovers in Japan. Japan will adopt new rules for cross-border share swaps next month, allowing a foreign firm's local subsidiary to use its parent's shares to buy a Japanese firm. The framework is commonly referred to as a "triangular merger" scheme."

FT: Iraq could hold almost twice as much oil in its reserves as had been thought. The potential presence of a further 100bn barrels highlights opportunity for Iraq to be one of world's biggest oil suppliers, and its attractions for international oil firms - if the conflict in Iraq can be resolved.

Japan tertiary index for Feb coming in at +1.0%m/m, better than market expectation of -0.4%.

Japan net foreign bond investment at +Y434.1bln in week ending April 14. Foreign net Japan stock investment +Y318.9bln.

RBA Bulletin: RBA sold AUD$586m in March, most in 1 yearr.

Lots of rumours making its rounds in Asia, as hedge funds, markets players scramble to buy JPY and unwind short JPY carry trades, together with risk aversion on fears of falling China and Asia stocks, on fears of PBoC rate hike, JPY repatriation for eurozone coupons and expected strong M+A demand for JPY under new M+A news in May.

Focus on China GDP and rumours of a strong above 11% number triggering PBoC rate hikes. China stocks fall -2.8% on fears of PBoC rate hike, or even reval CNY, widen CNY Band after strong Q1 GDP, after data together with CPI, PPI, retail sales data are released at 0700GMT, later than usual, helped triggered talks of huge GDP upside. Indeed PBoC set the mid rate at new highs of 7.7199.

Day started with large Japanese brokerages, secs houses (yest too) selling good amount of AUD/JPY from 99.30-45 highs.

US inv houses also joined the selling side, pushing AUD/JPY to lows of 98.10, and AUD/USD falling to 0.8324 from 17-and half year highs of 0.8392.

USD/JPY hit day lows of 117.79 on broad based short JPY carry trades unwind and Cross/JPY sales as funds adjust positions ahead of China GDP.

Large UK clearers out of HK sold good amount of USD/JPY, same Japan brokerages also selling EUR/JPY, clearing rumoured Kampo/ pension funds bids at 118.10-20. EUR/JPY hit 160.10 lows from NY close of 161.53, weighed by eurozone coupons.

EUR hit 28-m high of 1.3620, but capped by 1.3625 options, EUR/JPY sales. AUD off 17-yr high 0.8392, NZD lower, GBP off 21-yr high of 2.0134 on Cross/JPY sales.

Oil could dip on Iraq "oil" find. $62.81.

Nikkei -1.85% or 326pts at 17,341, on PBoC/ BoJ Rate hike worries. Though JGBs off lows; 10-yr yield -0.035% 1.670%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 117.79/118.57, EUR/USD 1.3579/1.3620, GBP/USD 2.0026/2.0095, USD/CHF 1.2006/1.2045, AUD/USD 0.8324/0.8392, NZD/USD 0.7392/0.7481.

madrid mm 05:56 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

G Soros 05:51 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 05:44 GMT April 19, 2007

Sir/madam,
That is correct. Please excuse me.
I am expected now for a meeting about a meeting for another meeting.
Good wealth prospects to you.

The Netherlands Purk 05:50 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
e/j: still 16018 that needs to be broken on the downside, and take the high of yesterday for the upside to break and everything will be fine. No new zones to enter.

Loonert: some of us here took a long at the 11280's and some of us closed at 11299. Someone said that 11272 was a very good, solid, base... Upside is 11330ish (dont forget the MIB pips) and downside is the break of that 11272-11265..

u/j: a VODKAgrin cired that he missed out on pips, now the grin will be back. Longs at 11830ish where long closed before this move.

No predictions, but i will be keeping an eye on this nice swissy. Guess 11990-80 can be good for a nice long.

AZUSA 4x-ed 05:44 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
G Soros 05:35 GMT April 19, 2007 || What is cable-dollar? (GBP/USD)-USD?

London NYAM 05:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Interesting morning. The dolar weakens against the Yen, impulsively, indicating we will (after a correction from these lows) see another similarly strong attack of dollar illness delving towards the 115. The dollar meanwhile in a corrective sequence vs Sterling that will be will supported around 1.9820 and likely will turn back up well before that figure heading back to attempt some new 1970's disco highs.
Its about to get tricky out there IMHO.
Good luck everyone.

G Soros 05:35 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Fundamentally correct. Once again the cable-dollar is overvalued. Watch it crumble as we destroy it from here on rallies.

Bodrum OEE 05:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 05:29 GMT April 19, 2007


My compliments. I appreciate it. Thank you

Bodrum OEE 05:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain 04:33 GMT April 19, 2007


Dear Bahrain 1 good morning to you (and a rainy day) (this drought..is it everywhere?),

Could you kindly tell me what is "ccy's".

Thank you

AZUSA 4x-ed 05:29 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 05:16 GMT April 19, 2007 || Very nice! Kind regards...

Bodrum OEE 05:16 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 19:20 GMT April 18, 2007 -- very complex... bond rate carry speculators hardly sleep recently

Hello there. I would not. Nor should real estate related ones (the last of asset classes to go up and down in investment cycles)

Monaco Oilman 13:19 GMT April 16, 2007,

I hope you are well.

Valuation attempts that do not factor involve facts and figures in accurate context may prove partial. The current fundamental overvaluation (and not technical) on GBP/USD is 8.5 % to the disadvantage of the latter (presently it is at 2.0005).

I thought I should put forward my view (with figures at this time) when number and volume of GBP (and CAD) bulls against USD and ahem, yours truly, seem to be in vast majority and increasing. When it comes to Euro its overvaluation against U.S. Dollar is less than 2%.

All can change rapidly.

I wish all of you best

Syd 04:54 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei down 2.1% at 17303.54 on stronger JPY; "Our currency guys are saying they're seeing some carry trades being unwound here and that's pushing this thing down. We've seen some CTA guys jumping on that and doing some futures selling as well earlier," says head of equity derivatives trading at U.S. brokerage in Tokyo.

Syd 04:48 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
FOREX-Yen recovers on solid data, risk-taking caution
TOKYO, April 19 (Reuters) - The yen recovered broadly on Thursday as solid data and a surprisingly big drop in Tokyo share prices prompted investors to trim their risk exposure.

The yen's rebound against high-yielding currencies helped pull the euro and sterling off their highs against the dollar, but the U.S. currency was still weighed down by expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts while a monetary tightening outlook supported other currencies.

The dollar hovered near a record low against the euro and a 26-year low versus sterling.

Bahrain Bahrain1 04:39 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Seems same old story....Eastern Europe will start to sell GBPYEN and NZDYEN when they come. let see.
Sell rallies the above ccy's GL.

Syd 04:37 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
All Ordinaries 6,159.80 12:33AM ET -55.20 (0.89%) Components, Chart, More -
SSEC Shanghai Composite 3,526.00 Apr 18 -86.39 (2.39%) Chart, More
HSI Hang Seng 20,357.96 11:36PM ET -419.13 (2.02%) Components, Chart, More
BSESN BSE 30 13,500.72 12:36AM ET -171.47 (1.25%) Chart, More
JKSE Jakarta Composite 1,932.95 12:35AM ET -26.73 (1.36%) Components, Chart, More
KLSE KLSE Composite 1,328.63 Apr 18 -1.63 (0.12%) Components, Chart, More
N225 Nikkei 225 17,260.22 12:16AM ET - 407.11 (2.30%) Chart, More
NZ50 NZSE 50 4,174.27 12:34AM ET -19.30 (0.46%) Components, Chart, More
STI Straits Times 3,334.31 12:30AM ET -66.10 (1.94%) Chart, More
KS11 Seoul Composite 1,511.02 12:36AM ET -23.56 (1.54%) Components, Chart, More
TWII Taiwan Weighted 7,887.26 12:36AM ET - 116.05 (1.45%)

Bahrain Bahrain1 04:33 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Hi Frnds good day to you all.......
Becareful....stocks down....might start another wave of carry trades selling......take care.
Watch GBPYEN and NZDYEN. GL.

Syd 04:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Asia Market Fears Push Nikkei Down; REITs higher

Broad-based sell-off of equities rippling across Asia, says trader at large U.S. brokerage in Tokyo. "Volumes on the cash side are light, so it's easy to move things but the cash that is out there is getting out of risky assets. Markets like Malaysia, TSE Mothers, and the Hang Seng are all getting toasted and we're seeing JGB yields suddenly dropping off. The phrase "flight to safety" comes to mind," he says. Some investors moving into REITs as well; TSE REIT index up 0.1% at 2435.49. Some traders pointing to pan-Asian worries over delay of Chinese GDP data - relsease rescheduled three times in less than 36 hours

Syd 04:29 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/CNY Down; Awaits 1Q Econ Data
USD/CNY bid/ask quote on OTC market down at 7.7185/7.7188 vs yesterday's 7.7216/7.7217, in line with USD/majors weakness. Sentiment stable ahead of 1Q GDP data 0700 GMT despite speculation government may raise interest rates again if 1Q data very strong; "Theoretically, further interest rate hikes will exert upward pressure on the yuan, but we all believe that the government will continue to take a gradual approach on the yuan issue," says Shanghai-based trader at foreign bank.

Syd 04:15 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Murray irrigation to be switched off without rain
IRRIGATORS will be unable to draw a drop of water from the Murray-Darling system for the approaching growing season without heavy rains within the next two months.
Prime Minister John Howard said yesterday the nation’s drought had moved to an ”unprecedentedly dangerous situation “ in which the iconic river system could provide water enough for drinking only.“Unless there are very substantial inflows - and for that read heavy rain leading to runoff into the catchment areas - prior to mid-May 2007, there will be insufficient water available to allow any allocation at the commencement of the 2007-08 water year for irrigation, the environment or for any purposes other than critical urban supplies,” he said.

Syd 04:12 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Australian group eyes £1.2bn bid for BUPA’s hospitals
Ramsay Health Care, Australia’s biggest private hospital operator, is eyeing a joint bid backed by private equity for 26 hospitals in Britain owned by BUPA, which could be worth more than £1.2 billion, The Times has learnt.

Lahore FM 04:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 03:25 GMT April 19, 2007
welcome!more so on gbpjpy i would say.

Syd 04:06 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK:NZD/USD To Consolidate N/T As Profit-Takers Swoop

Lahore FM 04:05 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
bouight gbpusd 2.0041 and 2.0044.

Syd 04:00 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei 225 17,267.38 11:39PM ET -399.95 (2.26%)

USA BAY 03:57 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
PERTH RANDALL,

If you don't like him and his signals, just let him be. Why have all this unnecessary words. Total waste of space. He does not say anything against you guys unless you people provoke him. Just let him be.

Perth Randall El 03:55 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:39 GMT April 17, 2007
Perth Randall El 16:37 GMT April 17, 2007
======
my calls not for you.dont use them.
==============================================
Don’t worry. You have made it very clear that you’re A,B,C,X calls are self-speak that only a donkey would understand!

Perth Randall El 03:43 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:16 GMT April 18, 2007
sure..idiot support stupid.
==========================
Another confused message to your twin donkey?

Syd 03:35 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Asian Stks Lose Favour With EM Investors -ML Poll

Latin American stocks have displaced Asian shares as most popular among developing markets in April, shows Merrill Lynch poll of emerging markets managers - Latin America was preferred region for 19% of managers surveyed, with Asia the top region for 10%; note, Asian equities were preferred by half of managers surveyed in March, 59% in February. But poll also shows managers more pessimistic on profit outlook for emerging markets, with only 29% saying corporate profits will improve in next 12 months vs 45% in March, 82% in February. Poll was conducted April 5-12

Syd 03:32 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei 225 Stock Average Down More Than 300 Points

HK [email protected] 03:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/yens-gains-weighs-nikkei-china/story.aspx?guid=%7B5125930D%2DE81D%2D4BC6%2D9EAC%2D69002562FE3C%7D

"Everybody fears what is happening in China," said Francis Lun, general manager at Fulbright Securities in Hong Kong. "Everybody believes the economic data will show that the economy is growing too fast, and that China will introduce more stringent austerity measures; I think they will move to control loan growth, raise interest rates and things like that."

And that may have effect on the currency Mkt too.

HOU rj 03:25 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Lahore
Nice Call on JPY
rj

Syd 03:24 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY falls below 118 as stop-loss sell orders at 118.10 triggered amid talk U.S. hedge fund unwinding positions, says trader at major Japan bank; adds weak Asian stock markets causing players to buy JPY, dragging USD/JPY down. Tips support at 117.70 but, if broken, "pair could fall much further". "After a long rise, this might be the beginning of a period of downward position adjustments taking place."

Syd 03:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China's foreign exchange reserves are too large and liquidity levels remain too high, increasing the importance of guarding against economic volatility, China Banking Regulatory Commission Vice Chairman Tang Shuangning said Thursday.

"Gross domestic product growth has been in the double digits for four consecutive years. The economic situation is very good. But it's precisely at such a moment that we must pay the closest attention (to potential problems)," Tang said in a financial conference speech that was posted on the commission's Web site.

Tang also said China should prevent a rebound in banks' nonperforming loan ratio.
Tang's remarks reiterate China's concerns that its forex reserves, the world's largest at $1.2 trillion at the end of March, are growing too quickly, fueling flush liquidity, easy credit and rapid investment growth.

Syd 03:20 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY may fall below 159 in near term, says trader at major Japan bank. Stop-loss sell orders triggered at 160.40 earlier on, speculators taking profit as well as players selling to cut losses, dragging pair further down. Tips initial support at 160 but if breached, stop-loss sell orders piling up at 159.90 could cause further fall of pair, initiating a downward trend

Syd 03:17 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Hang Seng 20,515.68 10:16PM ET -261.41 (1.26%)
Nikkei 225 17,412.41 10:30PM ET -254.92 (1.44%)
Shanghai Composite 3,527.48 10:45PM ET 8-4.92 (2.35%)
Taiwan Weighted 7,919.63 11:17PM ET -83.68 (1.05%)

Sydney ACC 03:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Carrytrade liquidation. Sellers of high yielders GBP, AUD,NZD etc versus JPY and CHF.
Both JPY and CHF moving in opposite direction to others against USD.
Coulkd this be a repeat of early March. On one day NZD fell 4.5% versus JPY.

Ft. Lauderdale MrHuckFin 03:10 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
O.K. why is the GBP/USD and the USD/JPY moving in the same exact directions? They should move in an opposed direction of each other. Whats going on?

Syd 03:07 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China Bk Regulatory Official: Should Prevent Econ Volatility


China Bank Regulatory Official: Liquidity Levels Too High


China Bank Regulatory Official: Forex Reserves Too Large

China Bank Regulatory Official: Should Prevent NPL Rebound

Syd 02:55 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD Down Vs JPY; Talk Of US Hedge Fund Sales
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY drop again with selling by non-Japan players, speculators amid talk U.S. hedge fund unwinding positions; Asia stock market decline is leading to some renewed risk aversion, adds trader at major European bank.

Syd 02:54 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ On Hold Despite House Price Data - RBC

NZ's March house price data "unambiguously strong", says RBC Capital Markets senior economist Su-Lin Ong; continues recent strong run of domestic data which argue for follow-up hike at next week's RBNZ cash rate review. Still, notes other than today's release, bulk of recent data pre-date last month's rate hike,

Syd 02:52 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China shares slump amid chatter in market 1Q GDP data out later to show enough strength to spur near-term rate hike, 1Q economic data due 0700 GMT with GDP tipped +10.3% on-year. Comes as market a bit jittery given run of record highs, with rate hike talk likely an excuse to take some funds off table for now.

Syd 02:27 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Asian stocks are at risk of a market meltdown in May says Jay Moghe, CEO of Opes Prime Asset Management.

Syd 02:25 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Gary Evans HSBC on CNBC talking about china
says Bubble growing in the share market, says if the CPI is above 3% will give China the green light for to hike

Sydney ACC 02:01 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 01:40 GMT April 19, 2007
You can never tell from apure technical perspective whether AUD has failed at 100.00, after all it is just another figure. Nevertheless I would say the downside is the easier path at the moment. I won't commit to a projected level, however, if short then use a trailing stop loss to protect the profit.
There is one other issue which i have not commented on that is the CPI. It seems there is a majority of economists going for a benign increase which ought to translate into the RBA maintaining the status quo. The market has, however, factored in a 65% chance according to the futures market. The data is released on Wednesday, Thursday is a public holiday so many will dispapear for the weekend. Markets may be a bit thin on Wednesday so any movement could be exagerated in the abscence of some.

Syd 01:59 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei 225 17,440.57 9:39PM ET 226.76 (1.28%)

KL KL 01:53 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
ok added more gold shorts 691.3 sl 693.15

USA BAY 01:40 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
SYDNEY ACC,

Agree with you, it is better tp stay on the sideline fpr now and see where these 2 superstars kiwi and ozi are heading to. By the way what do you think about aud/jpy, the target 100.xx can it be considered as failed and may we see 95/93.75 soon or another attempt will be made tp the 100.xx mark. thanks

Syd 01:31 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
NZD/USD falls sharply as profit taking on carry trades puts pair under pressure, but downside limited to 0.7400, says HSBC trader; pair last 0.7428 vs 0.7478 early, hurt by NZD/JPY slipping to 87.85 from 88.65 early; "the Kiwi and other currencies like the sterling have had a fantastic rally to multiyear highs with carry trades being a key driver, now not surprisingly people are booking a bit of profit on this." Adds further downside likely for NZD/JPY, but support evident around 87.50 as demand strong.

Syd 01:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:28 going to see what happens today could get one of those tasty moves , then will be worth a punt :-)

Sydney ACC 01:28 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd 01:21 GMT April 19, 2007
Either a Japanese or Chinese interest rate increase or a bumper NFP figure over 200k, lower unemployment rate and higher wages.
Markets were a bit hairy overnight with AUD down to 0.8316 only to finish higher on the night. I think this is a foretaste of things to come, erratic movements with an unsure underlying trend.
I am out of the market for now, no positions so at least I can be more objective with my views.

Mla evan 01:23 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Qindex, any important levels on Gbp to watch now?

Syd 01:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
The China Foreign Exchange Trade System published the following official central parity rates yuan Thursday:


Thursday Wednesday
USD/CNY 7.7199 7.7238

Rye,NY et 01:21 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Eur/Usd...fwiw...re: trendlines...There's some arithmetic to suggest that the market may top out today at 1.3635-40 and fall into consolidation over the next several days before tackling the High...GL/GT

Syd 01:21 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 01:03 GMT I appreciate that , epecially the M&A news, got the same feeling on USD not sure what it will be the possible trigger ,could be China and Japan rate hikes Jasper Krol sees Chinese Yuan reference rate 7.5000 by Xmas



China's official Xinhua News Agency, citing economists, that double-digit GDP growth likely maintained in 1Q will bolster expectations that growth data due later likely to keep up pressure for tightening by Beijing. Forecast for double-digit growth rate in commentary late Wednesday isn't surprising, given 10.3% average forecast in Dow Jones Newswires poll of economists.

Sydney ACC 01:03 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Syd 23:35 GMT April 18, 2007
In the short-term ie the next seven days I see some pullback.
How much?
Probably no lower than 82 cents.
Why?
The Rinker deal for a start. That is a cloud hanging over the market. There's a large retail segment in Rinker from its days as part of CSR, therefore there's a sizeable proportion of the shraeholding that is unhedged.
Secondly, there are M&A's popping out all over the place. Yesterday there was Orica and James Hardy. I don't know so much about the first one, it's another private equity bid, the latter looks like another Rinker. An opportunistic buy of a company with a large exposure to the US residential construction business. This bid tells me two things one it would be cash and the market capitalisation is AUD 4.5 billion, so there's another AUD 3 billion.
The other is that smart money reckons that the US housing market has bottomed. If so there could be a change in sentiment to the USD not too far away.
And thirdly Tesco has cash coming out of its backside its proposing to hand back GBP 3 billion to shraeholders, that money could go a long way to buying Coles. Tesco's got the money and a business plan to turn the company around even if it only boughtt a controlling interest in the company that's still around AUD 10 billion.
AUD is looking like the GBP of 2007.
IF and its a big if, sentiment does turn and none of these acquistions materialise turn then we could be headed back below 80 cents.
I have a problem I can't shake off the USD neutral to bullish stance. I can't see interest rates declining and I still see a remote chance of an increase later this year. The economy is still adding jobs so the labour market could tighgten up later. i just don't like sterling above 2.00 and euro at 1.36.

Syd 01:02 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
MARKET TALK: Carry Trade Pairs Under Profit-Taking Pressure


0101 GMT [Dow Jones] All major carry trade pairs are lower with profit-taking by variety of names, say traders. Greatest losses are in NZD/JPY, now off 98 pips at 87.80; GBP/JPY off 111 pips at 128.36. Profit-taking has developed in recent sessions as many pairs have reached multi-year and in some cases multi-decade highs.

Syd 01:00 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Bank of Japan Gov. Toshihiko Fukui remained upbeat on the Japanese economy Thursday and reiterated that the central bank will continue to manage policy in a timely manner based on developments of the economy and prices.

His comments didn't reveal any fresh clues on the outlook for monetary policy, and market participants will now turn their attention to the BOJ's regional economic report due later in the day to look for any hints on future interest rate increases.

"We will continue to aim to achieve sustainable economic growth with stability in prices," Fukui said at the opening of the central bank's quarterly branch managers' meeting.

Fukui said the Japanese economy continues to expand moderately and remained upbeat on the future. The BOJ will release its quarterly "Regional Economic Report" based on reports from the branch managers at 0530 GMT, followed by a press conference by BOJ Osaka head Masahiro Samejima at 0615 GMT.

Atlanta South 00:47 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Ref 23:13//I just admire your style, but I just don't think I
have enough patience for the block method to the extent you
are doing, but I have on a very small scale. Over the yrs I
have changed trading styles several times trying to adapt to
the market, but for the most part try to stay with the trend
on a short term basis. The $/CAD pair is still a short if my
method is correct, but when it finally lands it could be a big
explosion north that follows. I just don't know @ this point
when that will be, so will follow the signals I get as they have
been spot on so far. Good luck with the block project & gt.

Syd 00:41 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY Shorts Look Attractive - Morgan Stanley

AUD/JPY's bounce off 100.0 this week sets up attractive risk-reward for tactical short trade, Morgan Stanley FX analysts say. Recommends target of 95.00 with stop-loss at 101.00. Argue that AUD strength is extended and JPY pessimism also overdone. Suggest signs of slowing in China GDP 1Q data due later today might contribute to reassessment of carry trades, lend to JPY strength. AUD/JPY briefly reached decade high of 100.03 Tuesday, now trading at 98.925

Syd 00:37 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Australia's PM: Murray-Darling Water Situation Grim

Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Thursday a review of the water availability of the Murray-Darling Basin, which generates about 40% of the nation's agricultural and grazing income, had found dangerously low levels.

Without heavy rain by mid-May, farmers in the Murray-Darling region won't receive any irrigation water allocation for the 2007-08 year, Howard said.

"If it doesn't rain in sufficient volumes over the next six to eight weeks there will be no water allocations for irrigation purposes in the basin," he told reporters in Canberra.

"There will be adequate water for critical urban supplies and it will be possible for some farmers, most particularly those whose properties have adjoined rivers, to draw on those rivers for their own personal needs, not for stock needs."

The Murray-Darling Basin spans five Australian states and accounts for about 85% of the nation's irrigation water.

Howard said it was too early to calculate the economic impact of the water shortage in the region.

"We know already that the drought has taken three-quarters to one percent off our growth," he said. "The longer it goes on, the harder the impact."

In January, Howard announced a A$10 billion program to reduce pressure on the Murray-Darling, the nation's biggest water system. The Victorian state government is yet to endorse the water plan, which needs the cooperation of all state leaders.


Dallas GEP 00:37 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Wll we have seen comments like this repeatedly the last 3 weeks regarding how over bought NZD and AUSSIE is and all it does basically is LONGS. Until the markey shows otherwise, they are a buy on DIPS IMO.

Syd 00:36 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY under more pressure than recently as traders take opportunity to lighten carry positions on strength in other currencies. Also, widespread USD weakness may ultimately spread to previously underperforming currencies, including JPY. Talk of chance of BOJ rate in May/June hike circulated in Asian market Wednesday; while not confirmed or considered credible, JPY was supported by talk with gains concentrated in Asia session, potentially hinting at further position-unwinding to come. Daily chart indicators bearish, Dow Jones technical analysis shows. Pair may trade in short term between 118.11 (Wednesday's low) and 118.80 (55-day average); any breach of support would target uptrend drawn from March 5, 115.16 low

Syd 00:30 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei 225 17,408.82 8:09PM ET 258.51 (1.46%) open

Syd 00:27 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Australia's PM Says Rain Needed In Next 6-8 Weeks
Australia's PM: Without Rain, Only Urban Water Available
Australia's PM: Murray-Darling Water Situation Grim
Australia's PM: Without Rain No Irrigation

Dallas GEP 00:22 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
My NZD longs on an TP order were closed at 7480 from 7420 which was pretty fortunate since it looks like high was 7483. LOL

Syd 00:20 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
AUD & NZD Too Far, Too Fast - Morgan Stanley
AUD and NZD have gone too far, too fast with rallies in antipodean currencies looking overdone, Morgan Stanley FX analysts say. From tactical perspective, current levels offer attractive risk-reward for shorts. Morgan Stanley argues RBNZ unlikely to follow up March hike with further 25 bp tightening next week while May RBA rate hike is very close call. Australian 1Q CPI due Tuesday, RBNZ decision next Thursday key risks to this view.


Australia's PM Says Rain Needed In Next 6-8 Weeks Australia's PM: Without Rain, Only Urban Water Available

Syd 00:16 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Japan Consumption Growth "Continuous" - CS
Japan February tertiary activity index up 1.0% on month proves consumption growth, "although not fast, is continuous", says Credit Suisse's Satoru Ogasawara; "this data shows that the growth in consumption we have seen in the last quarter was not just a rebound."

Syd 00:13 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
PBOC Has Room For More Rate Hikes - HSBC

PBOC could make radical move to encourage outflows, such as opening new channel for China's investors to buy global equities, other assets, or hike rates more aggressively; "given that there is still a gap of more than 200bp between the (CNY) and USD rates, the PBOC still has room to lift rates in the coming quarters."

Syd 00:03 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
China Data Delay Prompts Policy Speculation
Markets are eyeing a Chinese government decision to delay the release of key economic news Thursday from a typical AM release to a PM release after local markets close. Talking CPI, GDP, retail sales, PPI and industrial production. Speculation has grown that the delay happened because the data are red hot, no pun intended. Indeed one China CPI expert said inflation is expected to jump to 3.3% y/y from 2.7% in February and 2.2% in January. This has prompted new speculation of a rate hike. Meanwhile 1Q GDP is seen coming in at +11% y/y vs +10.4% in 4Q, well above the 8% desired rate (sustainable). On Monday China reported 1Q fixed investment up 25.3% y/y vs 23.4% for Jan-Feb, suggesting Mar fixed investment (out Thursday too) will be up close to 27% y/y. I would note that the Shanghai benchmark index hit a record intra-day high Wednesday.
China's economy is not slowing enough to avoid overheating. A managed yuan (artificially low) is also adding to easy credit conditions as the PBOC can't possibly be sterilizing all of its intervention leaving lots of yuan in the banking system. I am not suggesting a band widening or de facto/real revaluation is imminent. But the argument that the days of the current regime are numbered even if the clock is running slow. China's overheating risk makes the current FX regime incompatible with long run stability.

Syd 00:00 GMT April 19, 2007 Reply   
Japan tertiary industry activity index +1.0% on-month to 110.7 forecast was -0.4% in February on back of strong activity in retail sector after strong rise in January. "In trend terms, the activity level in the tertiary sector appears to be gradually picking up, reflecting a rebound in consumption," say Lehman Brothers economists. With this month's gain, index for January-March period available next month may record 2nd-straight quarterly increase.

 




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