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Forex Forum Archive for 04/20/2007

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London NYAM 21:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
poseidon submarines in for revenge with trident missiles ready for attack around the 1.1230-5- level. smothering all resistance with scilla and coribdus depth charges ready suck down all attaempts at lift off. All petroleum based and hydrogen-nitrogen fueled fake pumps drowned in the whirlpool of loon.

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:52 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 20:39 GMT April 20, 2007 || Tried to warn him that when the snowbirds leave the States after a long winter, they take their CAD(uet).

Seem to recall an old statistic that ranked Canada as the world's 3rd largest exporter. Would you happen to know if this is still the case? Given the rather glossy appearance of that printout do you think it was accurate in the first place?

Mtl JP 20:39 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 20:32, when a wheel comes off a Murcielago, it is just as pathetic - if not more - as a any Yugo (or AMC Matador)

Mtl JP 20:35 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 20:28 / amazing averaging down.

I have to admit I got taken (JUBBed) by yesty's close above S upport (1.1277ish). Today's close under it (dynamicaly adjusted btw, may vary slightly from feed to feed) bodes for loon morphing to submarine further morphing into a batyscaph (a free and deep diving submersible). fwiw.

USA Zeus 20:32 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Sumarine-Z = submarine-Z
Murcielago is tired but never quits.
G/W all!
Z out.

USA BAY 20:30 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS/JKT AYE,

YEAH, whats life without some fun. Have a great weekend and Happy Cad and Kiwi hunting. Cheers to a more profitable week ahead. Thanks for all the inputs everyone. Appreciate it.

USA Zeus 20:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Sumarine-Z received a verified and authenticated message to fuel a Trident D-5 for imminent launch of USD/CAD...

Halifax CB 20:16 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
sorry, "calculate the end resufibo " should be "calculate the fibo"

Halifax CB 20:03 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Curious math lesson- looking at $Cad on the dailies back since the current drop started, it seems a lot more accurate to calculate the end resufibo levels exponentially than linearly, e.g.
level = last_low*(last_high/last_low)^fibo_value (essentially doing the fibo's in log space). At least in eyeballing against possible support levels.....I'm sure that just makes everyone's day just a little brighter :)

dc CB 19:36 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
COT scroll down

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

jkt-aye 19:34 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, thanks to you too. learn much to be a block builder. GL

USA Zeus 19:33 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Almost forgot. New USD/CAD ave cost dropped to 1.1230 from 1.1234.

USA Zeus 19:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 16:28 GMT April 20, 2007
LOL! What a great neighbor to have in the enclave!

USA BAY, jkt-aye and others-

Thanks for keeping us entertained here in an otherwise stiff, stuffy business. :-)
-Z-

Halifax CB 19:17 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
FWIW, you can get the historical closing prices back to (I think) '72 for almost anything from Pacific Exchange Rate Service (free).

Halifax CB 19:15 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Well, I use MetaTrader for charting, and with the 4 majors the data goes back into the 70's. It also has Cad and Aud, and crosses for the 4 majors, but only USD rate for Aud and CAD (you can always pretty accurate good cross estimates for those yourself), but no exotics. Some of the companies working on MT plaforms provide live gold, oil, etc, as well as smaller currencies. You maybe able to gt them from the company though, I've never asked. But it's a good charting platform, and highly programmable; they provide a real time data server which is rarely more than a few pips off my live sevice. Best of all, it's free....

sm pd 19:13 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
jp, I dont want to take a lot of space here... but the charts I trade off now go back to 1980, however the software covers only majors and a few other pairs which has started to limit my trading. dont want to trade a pair off a 10 year chart as this limits the picture...e.g. this is the case with eurchf now - if you dont have a chart going back at least 20 years you dont see the danger

USA BAY 19:10 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

LOL, Thats a good pass time.

Mtl JP 18:57 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
pd 18:49 / at least 20 years - what is your ideal historical time span ?

jkt-aye 18:56 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
so there is goose and kiwi musketeers. LOL

USA Zeus 18:50 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Click click bored so bought some USD/CAD on the 1.1215 offer.

sm pd 18:49 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
sorry to bug with this - I need a good charting package with charts of majors and exotics going at least 20 years back. also want to try the software first before paying for it. any suggestions? I have tried too many crappy ones

Sofia mik 18:49 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
long usdcad 1317

Mtl JP 18:40 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 18:23 / You must not lose sight of,nor forget that Paulson is someone who joined a meddling political team whose "leader" thinks he knows better than the locals what is good for them (..."My message to the Iranian people is: You can do better..." nyt).

London NYAM 18:37 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the gbp has had 5 wave sequence down on iddy-biddy scale. if that high holds we should see the corretive movement of this whole sequence inaugutated sending us below 2.0000 (nicely below).
Of course it may only get going after the weekend.
Good job chris on the snipes.You are way too fast for me. Have a nice weekend.

USA BAY 18:34 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
DALLAS GEP,

Your view on aud/nzd please. thx

USA BAY 18:32 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GEP/AYE,

Count me in to 7476

jkt-aye 18:29 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GEP, you're not alone. gtgl

Halifax CB 18:23 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Paulson:
"There are many countries in world that don't have a market-determined currency, but China is by far the largest."
He said, "That, in and of itself, is a bit of an unnatural act."


IIRC, it was a good long while that the US didn't have a market determined currency. Seems a bit of "Do as I say, not as I do".....

Halifax CB 18:13 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Sounds like a smart guy, the US should hire him instead of bailing put everybody who complains about the after effects of over-indulgence.

Mtl JP 18:11 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
The Shanghai index y-t-d, for perspective and lesson learning report-card.

Dallas GEP 18:11 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Order on KIWI short at 7480 for executed. 7520 stop 7400 target

Mtl JP 18:07 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Hi Kevin - yes, right, indeed: it has not yet crashed. At least not in a way to teach the plebians that “You can’t take administrative measures to change people’s behaviour. The market is based on people’s behaviour. Investors will have to learn their own lessons.” - Cheng Siwei, vice-chairman of the National People’s Congress

CT Cris 18:05 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Cris sold gpb.usd at 20035 , and sold another @20047 and
exit both @ 20028.
other sold @ 20030 exited by s/l hunt at 20050.
Cris made good profit..other loose.

HK Kevin 17:55 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 17:52 GMT, China is not Japan.

Mtl JP 17:52 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Ahe 16:57, Paulson said he "feel quite strongly there's a need to move more quickly in the short term". How about to 4.5 - 4 rmb to the dollar by year end.. think that would qualify as "morequickly" ?

CT Cris 17:51 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
NYC 16:07 GMT April 20, 2007
Cris. When do you decide you are wrong and stop out or do you never take a loss? Thiis is a serious question, not an attack.
=======
yes..when I found myself in wrong position, I prefer to exit with loss.

jkt-aye 17:44 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
kiwi ... high temptation :)

Ldn 17:42 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Why inflation isn't just a problem in the UK

The big economic story of this week, was of course, the massive jump in inflation, which triggered Mervyn King‘s first letter to Gordon Brown in 10 years.
Of course, this is something we’ve been saying for years, though it’s nice to everyone catching up, even if it‘s a bit late now. But slack monetary policy is far from being a problem exclusive to the UK, as yesterday‘s China-induced tremors in the market showed …

http://www.moneyweek.com/file/28460/why-inflation-isnt-just-a-problem-in-the-uk.html



Mtl JP 17:42 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
The U.S. Economic Outlook - Mishkin, April 20, 2007

clouds have passed, it rained a bit, more sunshine with just some cloud

Hong Kong Ahe 16:57 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Paulson is on wire speaking. GBPJPY has started to reacted as leading indicator. Watch Out. GL & GT.

dc CB 16:56 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
fwiw. Notiice April/May 2006

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$cdw&p=D&yr=0&mn=14&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

LKWD JJ 16:55 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
is the djia @ 13k unlucky? maybe we go from 12999.99 to 14,000 !

LKWD JJ 16:49 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
SIR C_TC 16:47 GMT April 20, 2007
=======================
heard of losing ones shirt, but not ones skin!!!

SIR C_TC 16:47 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
The one who offers 100% guarantees know the maening of patient. 2 bad the bank account does not

Halifax CB 16:32 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Well, this loon just unloaded his usd/cad shorts, with a re-entry level set around 1.1270 (which will follow the 2STD level down as usd/cad moves sideways or up a little bit) or maybe even down..) Here's to 1.10 in the foreseeable future!

JHB SRG 16:30 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 16:26 GMT April 20, 2007
paint drying is more exciting than this mkt!!

hear, hear

JHB SRG 16:29 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hear, hear

moscow mike 16:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:05 GMT April 20, 2007
That SLBM with its MIRV warhead might crack cad into few parts in a favour of usd when hits the target

LKWD JJ 16:26 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
paint drying is more exciting than this mkt!!

UK Alex 16:24 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
France is in the grip of election fever. Just watching now on the BBC.

jkt-aye 16:22 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Hi Zeus ... join you again. trident ? am i sitting on it ? wow, should fasten my seat belt. lol. gtgl

Perth Randall El 16:19 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
So that means usd.jpy is still coming!!!! I will buy then buy some more and more and more and more. Understand. bibi

Sofia mik 16:18 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:05 GMT April 20, 2007

haha, you know verry well weapons,glgt

USA Zeus 16:15 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Professor- Great example!
BTW- the traditional flow model is now showing some daylight.
GL GT to all! (Only applicable to those who do not have 100% guarantees)

NYC 16:07 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Cris. When do you decide you are wrong and stop out or do you never take a loss? Thiis is a serious question, not an attack.

USA Zeus 16:05 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:04 GMT April 20, 2007

JP- A loon might dive into submarine territory but Trident D-5's are launched from those depths...

hk ab 15:44 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
tha tmeans the direction si NORTH!

CT Cris 15:35 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:24 GMT April 20, 2007
====
I shorted another at 20048.. and will exit below 20025.

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:34 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:25 GMT April 20, 2007 || Thank you Dr.! A comment such as yours could only come from a person that placed a building block in RTRSY as well... ;-)

UK Alex 15:31 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Crude oil futures snapped a three-day losing streak Friday on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange as investors rushed to cover their short positions.

The bellwether September contract gained 230 yen to close at 47,300 yen per kiloliter. Prices were up for all other months as well.

"They rose in tandem with precious metal prices, but there is a lack of active buying," said an official at Meiji Bussan Co.

USA Zeus 15:25 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Professor- Thx for that. I assumed Daily was the reference since there was no mention of timeframe.

Otherwise, without details a 5 period displaced MA can mean an infinite number of prices given all combinations of time intervals and displacements etc.

Well the small USD/CAD enclave of buyers as building blocks has some good neighbors. We are constructing a position block by block for the next trend. If/when that trend looks obvious enough to buy on DMA's we will return the slices to those buyers.

London NYAM 15:24 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT// Well now we see the reversal? Should not see above that 2.0050 move again otherwise its whipsaw-city. gt

hk ab 15:20 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
ok a breeze comes.
GD has some view on kiwi. time for "vertical" move?.....

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:16 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Hearing this DMA alot these days, but it sounds to me like folks use the term for Daily Moving Average. fwiw:

"The displaced moving average, DMA, study allows you to shift or center the moving average on the price chart. You specify the length for one or two moving averages. You must then select the number of intervals to displace the moving average(s). That value may be positive or negative. A negative value displaces the moving average to the left of the price bars; it lags the moving average(s). Conversely, a positive value leads the price bars. You may overlay the moving average(s) on the bar chart or display them separately. This study can be used for a variety of different purposes. You may use the study to de-trend the data, for cycle estimation, for phasing and as a simple moving average trading system. Refer to Kaufman's book and Murphy's book for additional details on using the displaced moving average study."

UK Alex 15:13 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:59 GMT April 20, 2007
ab, Are you watching CAD/Yen? We could be encountering some resistance around here.

USA Zeus 15:09 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
ab- Do you have a special 5 DMA where the price keeps bouncing off of it as it changes throughout the day?
My DMA only changes on the D.

madrid mm 15:07 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 14:52 GMT April 20, 2007

who knows 8-)

moscow mike 15:06 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:59 - hold tight to your DMA5, otherwise you can be blown away by south->north winds

GT

UK Alex 15:05 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Citi to buy Deutsche Bank?

Mtl JP 15:04 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 14:55, some birds - like Loons - not only fly, but also dive not just in air but also under water like submarines...

USA Zeus 15:02 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD Current cost = 1.1234. Clear to add heavy if the bunker buster is let loose.

hk ab 14:59 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
zeus, fwiw, it's the 10th day dlr/cad obeys the law of 5dma. will that be easier if we jsut keep shorting the line?

USA Zeus 14:55 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
So it turns out that USD/CAD 1.13 was just a test flight and was called back to adjust the afterburners. Now Blackbird-Z all set for "Mission Impossible".

Makassar Alimin 14:52 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:50 GMT April 20, 2007

maybe time to sell for a short term once it gets exposed widely on bloomberg :)

CT Cris 14:50 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:48 GMT April 20, 2007
===
I shorted again @ 20034.

madrid mm 14:50 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound's rally to the highest in 26 years may continue as options traders and money managers grow more bullish about the currency.

Options prices show traders are paying more for the right to buy pounds than to sell and the difference widened this week to the largest since Jan. 5. The premium on one-month pound calls over puts rose to 0.27 percent today from -0.2 on March 15. A positive number for the so-called risk-reversal rate indicates more demand for the right to buy the currency.

The pound rose as high as $2.0133 on April 18, the strongest since June 1981, as the fastest acceleration in U.K. inflation in a decade prompted investors to anticipate two more interest-rate increases from the Bank of England this year. Traders are also boosting bets the Federal Reserve will lower its target for overnight loans between banks, spurring demand for pounds.

``People are happy to buy the pound against all currencies right now,'' said Scott Ainsbury, who helps manage about $12 billion in foreign exchange at New York-based FX Concepts Inc.

London NYAM 14:48 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT// Im getting a triangle indicating GBP should stay below 2.0050 and, if, so, we are going sub 2.000 shortly. Best of luck.

DUBAI lxy 14:41 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris:
wowwww...you said it will rise till 20030-40. what is the name of your system? ? ?

USA Zeus 14:40 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
everyon = everyone (must be thinking of a Veyron)

USA Zeus 14:39 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 14:34 GMT April 20, 2007

Thx professor. Just reminding everyon that I am showing my execution prices in this peaceful sanctuary.

AZUSA 4x-ed 14:34 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:32 GMT April 20, 2007 || Saw bids at 1.1218/19

USA Zeus 14:32 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Noodling on the buy button for building block mortar 1.1221 (all offer prices of course)

USA Zeus 14:30 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Daily USD/CAD entering capitulatory activity.

The Netherlands Purk 14:29 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Well well, a week agowe where at same price in loonie. NN should be skipping the buy here, but let us see if we can get a bounce as from here to 11250. If patytern continues we get 11189ish. Nothing to be nervous about, exept when NN will be bitten by a P....

hk ab 14:24 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
this dlr/cad 5 dma is downsloping fast now.

hk ab 14:23 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
profit at home is the best.

UK Alex 14:20 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
I would say the dollar has regained some of its composure after stocks put in a better performance overnight. It is not resounding strength though.

USA Zeus 14:18 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Added building blocks USD/CAD 1.1227

hk ab 14:17 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad action fortelling Henry's speech is very -ve towards usd.

CT Cris 14:12 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 14:03 GMT April 20, 2007
Perhaps a little early Chris. Dollar strength today may be difficult to dodge. r.y., What do you think?

======
yes I noticed a little rise on my system till 20030-40 followed
by another decline , so i exited to secure the profit and may short again.

Makassar Alimin 14:10 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
stopped out on usdjpy short, all flat now

melbourne DC 14:04 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
only trichet n junker should discuss eur rate

London NYAM 14:03 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Perhaps a little early Chris. Dollar strength today may be difficult to dodge. r.y., What do you think?

UK Alex 14:02 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 13:56 GMT April 20, 2007
Yeah, emerging markets are very important to them and the weak dollar boosted earnings significantly like you said.

moscow mike 14:01 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
LDN 13:41 GMT April 20, 2007
.... well well. I am... LOL

Mtl JP 13:57 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
AL 13:45, next week wont look so good, time to write some callsor buy some puts.

Halifax CB 13:56 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:49 GMT April 20, 2007
The increased percent will probably come from a declining dollar, plus China.

madrid mm 13:52 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Miami AL 13:45 GMT April 20, 2007
TY , did not know that

CT Cris 13:50 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:37 GMT April 20, 2007
CT Cris 09:07 GMT April 20, 2007
CT Cris 08:15 GMT April 20, 2007
gbp.usd
=====
may rise after uk data , if so ..wait for 1 hour then short
========
call: sell if rise.
strategy sell now and sell another if rise.
which worked ?
=====
turn of call
shorted after 1 hour at 20035, will short another if rise at intervals 30 pips.
===
time to exit the call with 12 pips profit..as it is time to rise again.

UK Alex 13:49 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Interesting to see where Google expects its future revenues to come from.
"I suspect that our international percentage of our revenue will grow to over 50%," Schmidt predicted.

I see Schmidt is also dismissing any damage from copyright infringment lawsuits being mounted by Viacom et al. I believe analysts are split 50/50 on this one.

Atlanta South 13:47 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus
Your tower should be standing tall for sure & I wish you many
pips when it launches north. Have a great weekend. I'm out.

houston st 13:46 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   

reminder, front-month crude futures (May07) expires at the end of todays session....good weekend all.

Miami AL 13:45 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
mm: Option expiry today in Stocks. enjoy

LDN 13:41 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 13:39 GMT April 20, 2007
Misha..why dont you ask Purky who his neighbour is....lol

madrid mm 13:40 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
DJ opening at + 100 ...woawwwww 8-)

USA Zeus 13:40 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
HK ab Sure-Seems to be a panic "guaranteed" never lose ad nauseam signals today posted in the ICBM (Indicative Contingent Backwardized Manipulation) format.

Professor- Probabilities have increased to take that SP 500 target at 1500. Let's see...

moscow mike 13:39 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:31 GMT April 20, 2007 - we let our dear neighbor get some money on those ranges and hope he let us launch rocket trend.

UK Alex 13:37 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Today we will experience a pure market pumping operation. We should be more concerned with Q2 & Q3 results, not what is in the past and already known.

The Netherlands Purk 13:36 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Well i try to find some patterns and rangecompies with that last downmove (127-109) and there are two things. The range is there: 70 today. And we have this thing called Radar Love (golden earrings) that says that if we do this 11222 and lower than we see 11190 on Monday.
BUT,T, If NN is keeping the buy side in his P. fingers than this 11240 is abouncing area as long as NN has money....

USA Zeus 13:31 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Moscow Mike (And the mechanics)-

Mr Purkson in our neighborhood looks like he controls U/C movements, or so it seems like with his prophetic levels up and down. That helluva great guy seems to be the neighborhood watchman!

Analista Fx :-)

London Misha 13:31 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
German paper Tagesspiegel is allegedly saying an Iraqi group, the Ansar al Sunna, is planning attacks on US sites in Germany, causing the US to raise threat level in Germany.

hk ab 13:24 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Zues, can you kindly explain ICBM? thanks.

USA Zeus 13:20 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Also, weekly theme looks to be a real possability here all over incl the commods etc. so as they say DYOD and watch out for ICBM's.
Cheers!

moscow mike 13:19 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:18 GMT
Agree your idea, Zues Commander, my avg now at 1250. Was lucky to get some at the low.

GT

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:19 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
London Gooner 11:06 GMT //
hi Gooner --are you around? Posted a Q on the help forum on April 12 - if you have time only!

USA Zeus 13:18 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Happy Day!

Building block approach for USD/CAD offered some cream on the flight path to 1.13. Order filled to buy more at ave ave cost 1.1246. Plenty of room to buy lower. Model shows this is now in a 2-way situation meaning the down trend idea is at seriuos risk for a reversal.

Taken lots of cream the last few days on realigning the blocks now let's get some gravy for the steak and potatoes!
GT!

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:02 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
I think this has been discussed before, so I’m just reiterating an opinion as some believe that if we are to have a “changing of the guards”, EURJPY may very well be the canary in the mine.

London NYAM 12:59 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Okay so usdgbp: We have had a nice ABC correction as mentioned yesterday, which I presumed was then a good time to long cable asit looked so pretty. Of course examining the charts closer it seems the move up into this mornings highs before the numbers was actually another b wave implying we are still in corrective mode. on Micro scale (sub hourlies). The whole move still appears to be a wave 4 correction rather than the beginings of some Major (dailies) correction comming off of the April 9 low or even more bullish off the April 12 low substantuiating a complex correction this may take it to 1.9927-1.9940. Internal targets from the high include the 1.992 1.38 ext.
All that in consideration, as a corrective phase, its a nightmare to predict.
In a nutshell. Even though these moves are pulling cvable down the underlying trend remains bullish above 1.9927. The key will be picking up the bargains and/or not missing the next move. Id rather pick it up cheap in this environment and miss the move all things considered.

hk ab 12:59 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
oilman, do you see dlr/cad has gone enough for this leg.

hk ab 12:46 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
DS//For one thing I think it's hard to make euro go back to parity is China will keep a good sum of euro and reduce the fold to downside.

Makassar Alimin 12:40 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 12:29 GMT April 20, 2007

if you are correct, then euro's failure at this 1.36 and subsequently heading lower will say a lot...on monthly chart that gives us possible double top which will give rise to the talk of parity again, then again we have a lot of iffy trades here at the moment, but hey it is not against the law to use imagination :) time will tell.. and yes expect the unexpected...for the moment i stay with the trend and play the correction

madrid mm 12:38 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Today, fwiw - GMT
16:00 USD Treasury Secretary Paulson keynote speech at China Conference -- --
16:15 USD Fed's Mishkin speaks on U.S. economic Outlook

GENEVA DS 12:33 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
yes... and with the coming credit crunch... USDCAD will rise to 1.4500 before going down to parity or lower....

Analista Fx 12:32 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Zeus and I ;)

Melbourne Qindex 12:32 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 12:28 GMT - I havn't updated my analysis but it looks okay to me.

Gen dk 12:32 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

hk ab 12:30 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
zeus, you still long dlrcad now?

hk ab 12:30 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad never disappoint anything above 5dma is a SHORT!

GENEVA DS 12:29 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
I do not know where USD Index is at the moment, but I could imagîne with this hype actually all over and in every newspaper about sinking USD... we could go up a little bit first, then accelerating and finally in some month or may be years being 25 percent higher in USD Index than today... actually I hope for us all... this would be good trading.. Expect the unexpected.... this will be a complete credit crunch in this world and USD will rise in heaps...

hk ab 12:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Dr.Q would you mind comment your best talent, gold?

Melbourne Qindex 12:25 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD : The market is going to consolidate between 1.3579 - 1.3607 - 1.3634 for the time being.

Makassar Alimin 12:12 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 11:56 GMT April 20, 2007

DS, so you believe we will see 82 index level first from here than everything else?

Kaunas DP 12:01 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
eur/usd READY for 1.3580 test and then who knows :)

GENEVA DS 11:56 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
PROBABLY GOOD TIME SOON TO BUY USD.... USD CHF could again NOT close under 12050... , definitely crazy... so all we need now is turn in USDJPY to the downside , then the fun probably will start and make other currencies fall, currencies like EUR-GBP-AUD and so on... no body believes it as of yet.... 13500 broken confirms, 19800 broken confirms, 8260 broken confirms.... this might take some days, but the targets could be much lower, especially then against JPY... EHE gl.gt.

GVI john 11:54 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 11:54 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI


	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3601	118.37	1.2054	2.0017	1.1285	0.8346	161.00
High	1.3620	118.69	1.2064	2.0094	1.1308	0.8392	161.49
Low	1.3561	117.61	1.2002	1.9987	1.1225	0.8284	159.61
04/19/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/19/2007					
5 day 	1.3565	119.17	1.2095	1.9979	1.1310	0.8344	161.39
10 day	1.3488	119.20	1.2150	1.9841	1.1381	0.8283	160.64
20 day 	1.3417	118.63	1.2159	1.9764	1.1478	0.8198	159.11
50 day 	1.3272	118.61	1.2222	1.9593	1.1608	0.7999	157.40
100 day	1.3170	118.98	1.2266	1.9598	1.1644	0.7914	156.67
200 day	1.2967	118.03	1.2340	1.9247	1.1454	0.7765	153.07

Atlanta South 11:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Plovdin Gotin
Ref 10:45/Tks for those levels as they are most helpful &
answered my question. GT

NYC
Ref 11:03/If that was for me, tks & I understand your point.
If not for me, please disregard. GT

hk ab 11:14 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
ahe, thanks very much asnd good trade as usual.

Hong Kong Ahe 11:10 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 05:18 GMT April 20, 2007
ahe, with 161.50 broken, I presume carry returns, thoughts? - Hi ab, the uptick of EURJPY was not synchronized with other carry trade pairs. AUDJPY was stagnant to follow the pace and GBPJPY later leading the drop too for correction. All other pairs have not broken its last high except EURJPY. Yenophobes are taking the steps of push very cautiously. Few minutes ago they were all moved downward in the same pace. It looks like Big Yenophobes are testing the water again and ready to liquidate and profit-taking. GL & GT.

Sofia mik 11:09 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   

London Gooner
Sarcozy vs Bayrou sscond round
bad Nick vs strong euro.
glgt

hk ab 11:09 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
apart from thebearish candle, if yen crosses are making some abrupt turn here, gold iwll also retrace violently as well.

London Gooner 11:06 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 10:35 GMT April 20, 2007
hk ab
i noticed gold broke out upside...does this portend $weakness?
-
Gold testing important hurdle before 715 ar 691 area. The worry is yesterday bearish candle - The last 3 occasions this 'outside' day candle happened gold corrected. Still some risk it happens again
Guess conservative wait for break confimation may be required.
-
Not to do with Gold but think the French 1st round Elections may be of interest - Don't anticipate big impact on Euro unless we get a
Bayrou vs Le Pen second round.

melbourne DC 11:06 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
despite generally strong economic reports from the Euro-zone this week the price action in the pair is looking tired. ECB officials are clearly concerned with the appreciation of the currency and will most probably delay the next rate hike to June rather than May meeting. As the currency market begins to absorb the fact that immediate yield gains are not forthcoming, the unit could come under profit taking pressure from short term speculative accounts. (censored)

Now we just need the russians to sit on 1.3615. eurusd @ 1.36 is assuming sorksky into second round.

NYC 11:03 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
If you are hawking signals, a stop is a necessity for someone to evaluate the performance and also to evaluate the risk-reward aspect of the signal.

Atlanta South 10:46 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM
Ref 9:46/A very good point, but I have got to say I too rarely post s/l & t/p levels as trading short term for me these levels can change according the trade momentum & signals from my method. Not trying to defend Cris, but I understand why he might leave these levels from his post. Anyway you make a very good point. Tks & gt.

AZUSA 4x-ed 10:46 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 03:49 GMT April 20, 2007
AZUSA 4x-ed 02:34 GMT April 20, 2007

Good day to you! Sorry for the delayed response… wiser men before me have stated that ‘money never sleeps’; however, I am only human and do try to close one eye from time to time. I totally agree with your idea that tone has much to do with how effectively a message is delivered. Perhaps you may have noticed my recent tone. Although subtle, it does deliver a sense of frustration. Not over the market conditions, as I’ve come to accept the fact that price is the ultimate truth, but with the mannerism (or lack thereof) exhibited by some contributors. Seems there’s much work to be done, for one could polish a linguistic skill ad nauseam without overcoming the constraint of a biased prejudice.

Best wishes and kind regards!

Plovdiv Gotin 10:45 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 10:27 GMT April 20, 2007
As long as defense line 1.9982 hold Cable cud go to 2.0137 again if break 2.0050/59/63/72/85/95/99/110/120/130. But if above def.line is broken and 1.9982 act like Res. cable cud go sharply down (1.0463 - 1985).GT.

NYC beyond_destiny 10:44 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
out swissie long @ 1.207 for avg 10 loss

Philadelphia Caba 10:39 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
thnx GEP!

Auckland peat 10:37 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
kiwi is relatively strong too... my aud.nzd short enjoys.

Auckland peat 10:35 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab
i noticed gold broke out upside...does this portend $weakness?

Dallas GEP 10:27 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
caba, i think 6440 - 6370 is range short term for eur/chf for next 3-4 days

Atlanta South 10:27 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Would someone give their current views on GBP/USD as to the near-mid term outlook. I have been in & out of longs on this pair since the 9690-9700 zone. This pair has given back my losses for the yr, but I just wonder when it might end as my method is gone neutral on the pair for now. Tks for any views & comments. GT

slv sam 10:23 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 10:17 /
which facts Gotin? do you really believe the market is movimg by facts? may be..but facts which old and too late!!GT

Nigeria Basorun 10:19 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
uk but i think the CPP is really holding price have played so much around there

Como Perrie 10:18 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
market has regressed into lunchtime..so will do I...see later on bi

Plovdiv Gotin 10:17 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 10:09 GMT April 20, 2007
Does it mean U make trade based on the arguments not on the facts?

UK Alex 10:13 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
I wonder what is propelling the pound this morning. Anyone would think a big M&A deal with multiple bidders is in the works.

hk ab 10:11 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
nobody notice gold and silver are climbing the wall now..... many things follow.

slv sam 10:09 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
psychology Gotin! it is as important imo as the TA which I respect your ability with!GT

Como Perrie 10:05 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
2.0095 2.0115 shd read

Plovdiv Gotin 10:02 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
slv sam 09:52 GMT April 20, 2007
What makes U to think so?TIA.

Como Perrie 10:01 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Dunno, very tight last hours trading. It denotes a certain degree of uncertainty on markets. Not easy to trade multiyears highs as we currently doing. Risk calucaltions usually are very hard to manage in such a market enviroment.

Maybe you should see some 20 pips higher the eurusd to go for some stops at some points. Cable is far from 2.0095/2.0215 on hte other side.

We shall see how US will start to move. Data calendar is light except Paulson on China at 12 am nyc time, at least that what will be watching myself.

slv sam 09:52 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
I think euro today will touch 3660 and then correct lower!GT

madrid mm 09:50 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
- Apr 19th 2007 - From The Economist print edition

1/ Credit derivatives-At the risky end of finance -
The use of credit derivatives has boomed and bemused. These new financial instruments have yet to face their biggest test - Click here

2/ Energy trading - Weather patterns - How to forecast the forecasters
- Click here

melbourne DC 09:46 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
over last few hours .. Junker, irish, danish, spanish finmin explicitly saying 'no concern/panic over euro'. ecb const 'watching euro strength'. Ger BGA f/c eurusd 1.36-1.40 next few months; eur strength ok.
if IFR (and others) correct, ME bought 1.3525 early in week, and sovereign names today just below 1.36. Is the short term crowd the sellers?

London NYAM 09:46 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT your trades seem quite complex from strategic money management point of view. You are scaling in at higher levels to try and improve your average I presume. But at what point do you get it wrong or decide the risk has shifted to far against you? Perhaps why some people find your calls frustrating is that you don't state (or at least i can't find the statement of) your s/l levels and target points. Maybe I just didnt see it. I don't like posting s/l levels either as I don't tend to trade with them unless the point of risk reversal is obvious and requires one to get the censored out. good luck in any case.

London NYAM 09:37 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Nigeria// Yes the beast is loose again and I'm ging back to the charts to see whats happening. There will be another opportunity to ride it while its not bucking so hard.

CT Cris 09:37 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 09:07 GMT April 20, 2007
CT Cris 08:15 GMT April 20, 2007
gbp.usd
=====
may rise after uk data , if so ..wait for 1 hour then short
========
call: sell if rise.
strategy sell now and sell another if rise.
which worked ?
=====
turn of call
shorted after 1 hour at 20035, will short another if rise at intervals 30 pips.

Nigeria Basorun 09:35 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
london maybe thats just the best thing to do after following the hamer up i got out at the cpp and waiting fort he next enrty point. cable

NYC beyond_destiny 09:25 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
The coming result of French election may add short-term pressure on euro

London NYAM 09:19 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Out of short gbp at 2.0029 loss of 6 pips. The waves are looking fuzzy so id rather stay on the side

CT Cris 09:07 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 08:15 GMT April 20, 2007
gbp.usd
=====
may rise after uk data , if so ..wait for 1 hour then short
========
call: sell if rise.
strategy sell now and sell another if rise.
which worked ?censored

CT Cris 09:04 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:56 GMT April 20, 2007
CT Cris 08:11 GMT April 20, 2007
======
noone follows another blindly specially in finance market,many tests should be taken untill you trust any system,or strategy,
any trader exactlly follow the indicators which he trust them.
and follow the theories of the previous traders.
so those poeple whom said i did not follow others laugh on themselves.

NY tim 09:02 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF will dive to 1.1878 from this 1.2078 - IMHO

madrid mm 08:56 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 08:11 GMT April 20, 2007

Don t take it the wrong way please , but i would not know as i do NOT follow ANYbody's trade posted here. It would take me to much time and energy 8-).
However, if what you say is right, well done and congratulations. 8-)

I follow this personal advice of mine fwiw -
Succesful traders develop their own trading systems. They do not blindly follow those of others.

Como Perrie 08:47 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
As It goes one would look cable 1.9980 at least and in general a Usd correction from lows seen this week. Yet I do see the chance for the Usdindex closing today yet lower, not sure if to drill the key area below 81 to 80.7

Syd 08:39 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
China Yuan Dn Late On Higher Central Parity; Seen Up Next Wk
China's yuan fell against the U.S. dollar late Friday afternoon, as market participants took the higher-than-expected central parity rate as a sign that the government intends to control the rise of the yuan.

But traders said the yuan may resume its climb against the dollar next week on expectations of another interest rate hike by the People's Bank of China, after China's stronger-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter. They said the dollar may fall below CNY7.7100 late next week.
There is speculation in the market that the central bank might launch new tightening measures as early as this weekend, traders said.

An increase in domestic rates will boost demand for the yuan and add to appreciation pressure on the local currency, they said.

UK Alex 08:31 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
* UK Mar Retail Sales +0.3% On Mo; +4.8% On Yr

The Netherlands Purk 08:26 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Maybe NN won the battle at 11233 in the loonie and NN wrote out new pattern. If this is the case we see 11330 soon. If he takes profit, we see 11255 again....

CT Cris 08:18 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
according to my previous call..I shorted cable at 20055 exited at 20040...awaiting the rise during the data to short again.

CT Cris 08:15 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
=====
may rise after uk data , if so ..wait for 1 hour then short.

CT Cris 08:11 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:02 GMT April 20, 2007
=====
using my calls + my trading strategy+ capital based on minmum 250 lots (mini or standard ) =guranteed profit

The Netherlands Purk 08:11 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Time for the loonie to move.... maybe new pattern.

CT Cris 08:03 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Paris Van Java Kwang 07:45 GMT April 20, 2007
====
I did not think it will breaks the 20100 , so any short below
this level is good and profitable specailly if you short another if rise more than your entry.

madrid mm 08:02 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
"Becoming a full-time trader is not as easy as buying a computer, a data feed and opening a trading account. It takes hard work, dedication, psychological stamina and a strong support base. Unfortunately, even if you have all four, there is no guarantee that you will turn a profit. If you are willing to pursue this endeavor, make sure that you understand all that it entails and the stiff challenges it poses. "
Jim Wyckoff

Como Perrie 07:54 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
That was coupla hours ago, so guess the carry trade happy stories around.

Como Perrie 07:52 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Four earthquakes strike near Okinawa; tsunami warning is lifted
Four earthquakes, the biggest with a magnitude of 6.1, struck between the islands of Okinawa in southwest Japan and Taiwan, the U.S. Geological Survey said. Japanese authorities lifted a tsunami alert issued earlier. (Bloomberg)

moscow mike 07:50 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
I would not underestimate double major tops printed decades ago on cable...

Paris Van Java Kwang 07:45 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:28 GMT April 20, 2007
CT Cris 06:58 GMT April 20, 2007
gbp.usd
Limit Order to short 2.0070 cancel because I think 2.0099 it's resistent will breakout.I think I need suggesting from you Thank you

Paris Van Java Kwang 07:45 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:28 GMT April 20, 2007
CT Cris 06:58 GMT April 20, 2007
gbp.usd
Limit Order to short 2.0070 cancel because I think 2.0099 it's resistent will breakout.I think I"m need suggesting from you Thank you

moscow mike 07:40 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Gold is in the real hot zone on my daily chart and is set for a $40+ correction under 691.

hk ooozmeeh 07:38 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:28 GMT April 20, 2007
correction
gbp.usd is in downtrend till it breaks the level 20100.
short at any high below the mentioned level after each rise.
..gbp in a downtrend!!! What do you use mate? …1 minute chart.... I guess, lol, good trades to you

Como Perrie 07:35 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Watch UK Retail Sales coming out for the month of March. They are expected to come out at 0.5%, after a huge increase of 1.4% last month. In approx one hour..

CT Cris 07:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:58 GMT April 20, 2007
gbp.usd
=====
the break of 20055 confirmed the return of uptrend again.
inorder to be sure it is not a false break , short again if breaks level 20050.

=======
correction
gbp.usd is in downtrend till it breaks the level 20100.
short at any high below the mentioned level after each rise.

Syd 07:22 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
German BDI industry lobby group suggested that while German exporters are coping at the moment, they will start to suffer if the euro keeps on rising.
At UBS, currency strategist Benedikt Germanier is already looking for the euro to start backing down from here.
"We are cautious in chasing the euro higher while keeping our one-month target for euro/dollar at 1.3300," he said, noting that interest-rate markets have priced in a lot of "good news" for the euro zone.

Como Perrie 07:14 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:11 GMT April 20, 2007

You should as all big forex funds are using It as one key denominator of their holdings. They de facto trade versus the index with some differentiations.

Have a good day.. gotta see now some here

madrid mm 07:12 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
So USA based billionaire are not only buying football clubs but probably one of top 100 british Co, ie Allliance Boots, a british institution. 8-)

And Ottowa Senators spolied Sydney Crosby 2nd round play off spot 8-(

CT Cris 07:11 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:01 GMT April 20, 2007
=====
I dont use usdindex in my system as it gives the present situation , and not good to predict for the future.

madrid mm 07:10 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
BOE's King Writes the First `Dear Gordon' Letter
Click here

Alaska Moon 07:05 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:47 GMT April 20, 2007
========
Cris....Where are you located ??
Thanks
Moon

Como Perrie 07:01 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
cris ..maybe did not saw all of your posts as am not regularly following the forum... ... now am working onto larger time frames and if see anything do spend coupla hours scalping here and there..or news events and key breakout levels...

most saying the usdindex to turn negative below 81...while just observing this to have fallen from 121 to 80.7 correction into 92.50 and now we testing a trend continuation zone, which It's negativity to me was confimed on a breach below 82.70

would that 80.70 clearly hold or not yet not clear on charts, but am suspicius we see some side development in uncrtaintis or breach lower say 75 to 60 for the usdindex this year

CT Cris 06:58 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
=====
the break of 20055 confirmed the return of uptrend again.
inorder to be sure it is not a false break , short again if breaks level 20050.

CT Cris 06:47 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 06:22 GMT April 20, 2007
=====
I agree with you that it is not easy to predict in forex ,
so i insure to use strategies with call.
I use stopp loss only in one case,which is where the trend
changed,at where you have not to exit only but to change
your position to the opposite.
with each trend there is a possiblity of change the direction,
means if we are in uprend that does not mean it will go up
all the time.

hk ab 06:46 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hm... hike... what's the effect of China hike last time on currencies and metals?

Syd 06:36 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
FX NOW! USD/JPY, AUD/JPY Flows - Talks of 54bps PBoC hike i/o usual 27bps; CNY,
Focus still on China CNY and PBOC talks , as market rumours that PBoC may hike 54ps as soon as today to 6.93% instead of the usual 27bpts , Speculation has been rife PBoC will move today after strong comments from Premier Wen JiaBoa and Stats Bureau Chief Li Xiaochoa after the data. Annoucement may be made as early as this evening

Plovdiv Gotin 06:36 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 06:28 GMT April 20, 2007
1.3701/06

Como Perrie 06:30 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
would the usdjpy stabilize above 11890 11910 chance is for stops above around 11970 to get hit... very unreal as per fundamentals but so must be if they want to defend a big mass of one sided flow developing...not easy

hk ab 06:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
what are the eur bulls looking for before end of month?

Como Perrie 06:26 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
and see cable 20064 flying back towards highs... eurusd at record highs and normally new highs and tops have no clear prediction as is just notch before further trend extension or possible reversal..usdjpy pushing back higher in face of many and so the carry trades breathing again trough xxxjpy.. this is more to be observed as bonds at least so am looking at the whole of yen related pairs

hk ab 06:24 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
carry trade in full mode?
...impressive.

Syd 06:23 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
EU's Mandelson Says EU-Russia Relations Worst Since Cold War

Como Perrie 06:22 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
but if can suggest Cris... maybe adding some additional information to your analysis posted here might help. Stop levels also you say not to use that, but 99 pct of people here are setting them, so they will not follow. Also any call must have a market level of validity, which is time and price. If you scale up or down any possible trend reversal that is fine to me, but very hard to do for most that trade intraday mostly.

madrid mm 06:18 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Market talks making the rounds that PBoC may hike by more than the "usual" 27bps for its 1-year Yuan leading rate of 6.39%, as early as today, Friday after the robust GDP of 11.1% for Q1 and CPI of 3.3%.

Yomiuri reports that next week's BoJ semi-annual assessment will include a downgrade to FY07/08 GDP to 0.3% from 0.5% made last Oct. BoJ, and 0.6% for FY08/09.

MoF Koji Omi says he has no comments on stock moves. Chinese economy is moving favourably. G7 agreed that FX moves should reflect fundamentals.

Kyodo reports PM Shinzo Abe is not likely to vist the controversial Yasukuni shrine in April as he wants to continue to improve ties with China.

Bundesbank Pres/ ECB Axel Weber. Weber says cannot give all-clear on interest rates. ECB Must assess price-risks and act if necessary. ECB must counter mid-term inflation risks. German upswing may last many more years. German/ Euro-13 economic outlook is extremely positive - Handelsblatt- BBG.

FT: PM Tony Blair has ditched plans to hold a British referendum on a new European Union treaty, and wants an agreement on a scaled-back version of the EU constitution at a Brussels summit in the days before he leaves office. The British PM is likely to be pilloried by the domestic media and his political rivals and accused of performing a U-turn.. It is understood that Mr Blair has discussed with Chancellor Gordon Brown who is expected to succeed him as PM at the end of June, after the European Union summit on June 21 /22.

Japan METI all activity index +0.9%q/q.

Relatively quiet day today after yesterday's choppy and volatile session with huge cross/JPY carry trades unwinding ahead of China GDP - though still no lack of market rumours, including talks PBoC may hike may than its usual 27 bps as early as today from current 6.39%, including speculation CNY Band widening/ reval.

USD/JPY, Cross/JPY rose today on back of good weekend go-to-bi Nakane fixing set at 118.74. USD/JPY rose from 118.25-30, hitting stoploss on break of NY highs on broad based Japanese mega-city banks, Tokyo and model, funds buying and hitting stoploss above 118.60 to highs of 118.77.

Topside saw selling from funds, but hearing more stoploss orders are placed on break of 118.80-90.

EUR/JPY hit highs of 161.74 from NY closing of 161.27, stoploss orders wer tkane out on break of 161.50. GBP/JPY hit 237.91 highs from NY close 237.23, with Cross/JPY also boosted by recovery in Nikkei, China and Asian stocks after yesterday's selloff.

EUR/USD hit fresh 28-m highs of 1.3629 after finally taking out the 1.3625 triggers tripped, could rise on hawkish Weber comments. Hearing some Europeans, models funds selling, pushing it lower, but interest from Sovereign accounts still to buy on dips. Next key level 1.3650 triggers and all time highs of 1.3667.

GBP hovering above 2 handle, eye UK Retail sales, with likely 2-way interest from East European/Russian in Cable, GBP/JPY.

Japanese/ Europeans sold some AUD, NZD at highs, but interest still to buy Cross/JPY on dips for now. NZD options triggers at 0.7500 handle.

Nikkei +73pts or 0.4% at 17,445, with China up. JGBs lower on back of firmer Nikkei, 10-yr yield +0.010% at 1.685%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.26/118.77, EUR/USD 1.3609/1.3629, GBP/USD 2.0016/2.0040, USD/CHF 1.2040/1.2063, AUD/USD 0.8340/0.8366, NZD/USD 0.7425/0.7455.

Como Perrie 06:17 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
There could be greater volatility in financial markets and that's what am waiting for.

Como Perrie 06:15 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 06:05 GMT April 20, 2007

agree Cris you touched the point.... me not trading at current as said...at times do play some scalps for fun, guess so most that posting are not trading It's just when you are behind definding your stops or waiting for opportunities to emerge most probably...so far this market is not easy predictable and hope you agree on this

Como Perrie 06:13 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
If remember correctly Paulson is going to speak about China today at 12 am nyc time.

Morning intraday focused on UK retail sales.

Nikkei today did not show any new direction, with a modest rebound as the Shangai indexes.

CHINA PRESS: A working team chaired by the Chinese central bank has set seven goals for this year's work, including making interest rates a more effective tool in monetary policy making, the China Business News reports. The group is composed of officials from the People's Bank of China and China Banking Regulatory Commission, the report said, along with other unidentified ministries and government agencies.


CHINA: The China Foreign Exchange Trading System (CFETS) set the refi rate for 7-day repos at 4.2000% against 3.9700% yesterday. The overnight repurchase rate was set at 3.3800% against 3.1100% previously.

UK PRESS: The future of Paul Wolfowitz, the embattled President of the World Bank, was in further jeopardy last night after it emerged that the White House was drawing up a list of candidates to succeed him, the Times reports. Most prominent on th list is Ashraf Ghani, the man credited with overhauling the economy of Afghanistan after September 11, the paper says. Such an appointment would mark the first time a non-American has held the position in the 60-year history of the global
lender.

hk ab 06:09 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
no one seems to care France election tomorrow.........

CT Cris 06:05 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Poeple here are sick in posting calls to persuade themselves
that they are proffesionals ,and whom have nothing to say
they try to attack the professionals to show that they are
understand forex.
I understood post call here is a waist of time, cause most of traders feels that they are professionals and it is shame to follow others, other part are attacking to show that they are
something in forex.

Como Perrie 06:05 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
a big congestion line do see on carry trades pairs established as from yesterday nyc option cut

Como Perrie 05:57 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 22:47 GMT April 19, 2007

If the global political, financial and media powers can withstand to manage It smoothedly, then It will be somewhere year end...but at times there are factors that accelerate the process and we have lotsa signals those are coming to emerge soon.

for one if the liquidity dries out the MIBs can't do anything anymore to stop the plunge...

another is recent changes in Chinese law, about the non taxability of chinese companies held abroad to end...this might spark heavy outflows from abroad back into China... It already did imo for the smartest Chinese traders that made fortunes in free markets

Como Perrie 05:52 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
shanghai bc 23:01 GMT April 19, 2007

I see that. Tks for remind. But am considering also that behind national stats there are many multinationals contributing to the Chinese productions, which are not 100 pct chinese but just falling into yours growth stats. So a double cutting knife has been established.. agree at some point western economies will have to stop low cost labour speculation, dumped currency valued, and counterfaited low cost products of copyrighted western goods.

btw if am not wrong, am considering china not different than the malange of nations in europe.. different nations, different stats par provinces, different languages, very different levels of development from east to west of china and south to north big misunderstandings there..

so far still china will show yet many things to the world in next decades, but all the nice stories have a stop or an end...this is bubble imo

Illinois Mike Pinion 05:48 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Perth AllRandy El 05:24
Dear Madam, It appears that you are a novice to FX (forex) trading, and are in need of some training. It is very dangerous to follow other peoples forecasts without some modicum of knowledge. Suggest you do not waste your time harrasing CT, and rather do some research. The fact that others must give you this advice strongly suggests that you would do a lot better if you found a different occupation, more suited to your talents.

hk ab 05:46 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
let's see if dlr/cad can maintain its weakness or not.

The Netherlands Purk 05:44 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
e/j: the ticking to the high thing brought us back up here. Why not 16240 again? This is gonna be a strange day again...
Loonie did not make it far, so we have to see if pattern continues. pattern is that we will see 11220 in afew hours...

madrid mm 05:43 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
gm fx jedi

gmt
16:00 USD Treasury Secretary Paulson keynote speech at China Conference
16:15 USD Fed's Mishkin speaks on U.S. economic Outlook

Perth Randall El 05:24 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 05:04 GMT April 20, 2007

Kindly maa'm please explain how this works. Sell but sell if it goes higher? How much higher? Where do I stop compunding losses if it goes now towards the original buy target now that we ar selling? It seems backwards my apologies. Also, if we sell higher and higher and higher but the "confirmed" level is never reached what is the plan? If it reaches the "confirmed" level what exactly does that mean and what action is taken if any? I mean if we sell higher and higher and never return do we imagine the trade never happened? Please explain this because I fear usd.jpy 120 is never coming now but you promised it would and I am stuck after buy then buy if decline over and over and over and over. Thank you for your kind patience and explanations as I am sure you do this free from the heart as a kind human. Ok I stop now and wait for your kind reply. Have a fabulouse day ma'am/sir. Also where is CT? ok- bibi now.

hk ab 05:24 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Alimin, I Think we will end with the start of the weak usd side....

Makassar Alimin 05:21 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
ab, i think this could be one of those fridays in which by closing we end up where we start

hk ab 05:18 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
ahe, with 161.50 broken, I presume carry returns, thoughts?

hk ab 05:13 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
another big fall in dlr/cad coming.

CT Cris 05:04 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
====
ready to change uptrend .
downtrend will be confirmed if breaks level 19915.
meanwhile sell ,and sell another at new high.
or sell at better high.

Syd 04:57 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Australian import prices' 1.7% fall in 1Q will certainly assist in curbing inflationary pressure with costs falling, courtesy of rising AUD, says CommSec economist Craig James. Adds strong AUD takes some pressure off RBA when deciding on interest rates. Prices across range of imports have fallen, from TVs and clothes, to cars, James says. Imported dairy product prices had biggest fall in more than 18 years, which should go some way to offsetting potential price increases of domestic food items as result of drought

Perth Randall El 04:53 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 04:48 GMT April 20, 2007
Are you now coming clean about the GBP.USD up/dn sell but buy mess and using the original buy signal as a sell signal as I did?

BTW- Thank you kindly ma'am/sir for ending those insults about yourself. We need order here for constructive ideas.
Have a nice day.

CT Cris 04:48 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
market in sideways b4 it change the trend.
exit any buy position for gbp.usd based on my last call.
exit any sell position for usd.chf based on my last call.

Sichuan LK 04:31 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 23:32 GMT April 19

I am buying some more gold now, and will buy even more once it breaks 692, since I still think it will reach 730-750 in this round, as long as it holds at 680 level today and starts to rally, but I will turn bearish for short term if it breaks yesterday low. good trades

Syd 04:20 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Early BOJ Rate Rise A Possibility: JPM
Strong overseas economies support possibility of early rate hike from BOJ, says Akihiko Yokoyama, strategist at JPMorgan; China's strong growth, lower numbers in U.S. jobless claims supporting case for early normalization. "The next surprise will be on the bear side...for the bond market." Adds, lead June JGB futures Friday may fall to 133.65, last at 133.78, down 0.12; 10-year cash bond yield at 1.76%, down 0.5 bps.

Melbourne Qindex 04:20 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF : A projected resistant point is positioning at 2.4218. Projected supporting points are 2.4071 and 2.4108.

Syd 04:02 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
China Shrs In Recovery By Midday, Upside Limited
Analysts say latest economic data heighten need for further tightening near-term, such as rate hike, which will pull some investors to sidelines. But add, rate hike, if any, can't come as early as next week so liquidity to remain relatively good for now.

Perth Randall El 03:49 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:01 GMT April 19, 2007
Randall El 16:42 GMT April 19, 2007
======
stupid nr 3
====
at what price you are telling to sell?
as in my call I mentioned the decline to 20020.and I asked to buy after each dip.

===================================
Why do you always say that "s" word? Is that nice to treat you and your other half that way Mr Ed? And I sold On the call that you said to buy. Not your buy can go up but sell low cause if it rise then I dance and if it fall I dance to as it is sideways to big up mostly down before/after data rise if fall but sell for lower and buy every 30 pips lower for big move.

Bodrum OEE 03:49 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 02:34 GMT April 20, 2007

I mistakingly assumed it was a columnist from China. It was William Pesek of Bloomberg. Tone of his pen is comfortable too, I don't know whether you would agree.

Good day and best of luck

Syd 03:33 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Strong Chinese demand, especially in copper, should soften impact of any carry trade-related pressure on commodity prices, says JPMorgan. Notes stronger-than-expected China 1Q economic data raises possibility of further monetary tightening by PBOC, could further weigh on weaker equity markets, increase unwinding of yen carry trades; but bullish China GDP, industrial production numbers demonstrate

Bodrum OEE 03:32 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 02:34 GMT April 20, 2007

I like the content and the way it is written (a talent may be in the making there). Thank you very much

shanghai bc 03:19 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
hong kong 02:38 GMT April 20, 2007

That is highly likely..Gold has made new highs each year since 2001..Expecting to see 750-800/Oz region sometime this year..On this present leg of advance,there is a good possibility of seeing 700-730 region too..But anything above 700 is enough for me before summer..I should not let the money work too hard lest it gets tired of too much hard work..Good luck..

Melbourne Qindex 03:06 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle the market is going to consolidate between 2.4063 - 2.4307 for the time being. A projected supporting level is expected at 2.3941 - 2.3970. (The expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are ... 2.4017* - [2.4127] - 2.4238* - 2.4293 - 2.4348 ...).

Melbourne Qindex 03:01 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF (Monthly Cycle) : As shown in the projected series of my monthly cycle the market is going to consolidate between 2.4063 - 2.4307 for the time being. A projected supporting level is expected at 2.3941 - 2.3970. (The expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are ... 2.4017* - [2.4127] - 2.4238* - 2.4293 - 2.4348 ...).

hong kong 02:38 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
BC -- At DX 80, shouldn't gold reach 730 or higher? good trades..

AZUSA 4x-ed 02:34 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
A few days late, but from the looks of it more than a few bucks in surplus... China's time bomb in reserves.

Syd 02:28 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Most market players expecting China to hike interest rates to cool off economy, but impact on Japan may be negligible or even positive, say analysts. "If current overheated growth is eased back down to 10%, most likely via rate hikes, it would actually be good news overall for Japanese company earnings," says Norihiro Fujito, strategist at Mitsubishi Securities. China may hike interest rate by 0.27% in May, but impact on Japanese market will likely depend on how aggressively China moves to slow growth. Japanese metals, marine transport shares likely to benefit most from signs China's growth being reigned in, he says, adds hard short-term impact on Tokyo equities will depend on moves on Chinese market reaction to any hikes

hk ab 02:01 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
yenny exerts lots of pressure on PMs....

Syd 01:51 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
Aussie 1Q Import Prices May Take Pressure Off CPI
Australian Import Price Index -1.7% In 1Q; Export Index Flat
A price index of Australian imports fell 1.7% in the first quarter of 2007 from the fourth quarter 2006, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Friday.


hk ab 01:34 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
bc, hope that all the cargo can be unloaded above 700.

hk ab 01:17 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
bc, got it and clear.

USA BAY 00:39 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
As always, thanks a million Dr Q. gt/gl

Syd 00:38 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
DJ>>Carry Traders Less Sure Of A Weak Yen

Appears carry traders still betting against JPY, though a bit more cautiously after February's huge unwind and China data-driven jitters yesterday. "Short-yen positions haven't gone back to where they were before" February, says Scotia Capital's Camilla Sutton; IMM data show short-JPY positioning not keeping pace with rising longs for popular carry trade destination FX such as AUD. Still, willingness in NY to reestablish carry trades despite JPY's Asia rally yesterday highlights JPY's attractiveness as only FX game in town offering such high returns; but carry traders risk biting hand that feeds them, as penchant to quickly buy and sell may stir up the one thing they hate as much as a strong JPY: volatility.

Melbourne Qindex 00:36 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 00:30 GMT - AUD/JPY : As long as the market is trading above 98.19, it has a potential to tackle the barrier at 99.86 // 100.70.

USA BAY 00:30 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
DR Q,

What is your bias for aud/jpy pls. thanks

Melbourne Qindex 00:29 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD (Monthly Cycle) : The upper limit of the monthly cycle normal trading range is defined at 2.0086. As shown in the projected series a resistant level is located at 2.0257 - 2.0278 and projected supporting points are expected 1.9843 and 1.9988. (The moving targeting range for today is 1.9999 - 2.0081).

BUD Petr 00:15 GMT April 20, 2007 Reply   
AUDJPY - am thinking of shorting it if 100 level holds - any suggestions?

 




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