Forex Forum Archive for 04/24/2007

Melbourne Qindex 23:55 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market was able to find support around the quantized level at 0.8235* and it is now trying to anchor itself at 0.8295*. The next quantized level is 0.8354*. The mid-point reference of 0.8295 and 0.8354 is 0.8324. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represented by 59 - 60 pips(i.e. 0.8235*, 0.8295*, 0.8354*, 0.8413* and 0.8472* are separated by a constant value).


Melbourne Qindex 02:16 GMT April 23, 2007
AUD/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are :- 0.8206 - 0.8235* - 0.8250 - 0.8272 // 0.8295* - 0.8324 - 0.8339 - 0.8354* - [ 0.8383] - 0.8413* - 0.8428 - 0.8443 - 0.8472* // 0.8494 ...

Lahore FM 23:55 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:49 GMT April 24, 2007
like your rangeplay on the pair.am once again looking for 0.6825 break.your ranging has done much better for sure though.wish i was cleverer.

Lahore FM 23:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Jap march trade surplus 1.63 trln yen against previous 939.1 billion and forecast of 1.44 trln yen.

Dallas GEP 23:49 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
YEp I would say 6825/30 could be hit before shorts are in play again.

Lahore FM 23:44 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:32 GMT April 24, 2007
some upside for your favourite pair eurgbp looks likely.what do you think GEP?

USA Zeus 23:43 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
feels like the EUR, GBP and JPY are in a "test and digest" phase.

Dallas GEP 23:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
THX FM, I am not sure about full form but lately hit rate has been pretty good. LOL

Lahore FM 23:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
the day holds a lot of promise for jpy aspect of the market i feel.

Lahore FM 23:29 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 23:26 GMT April 24, 2007
good trades GEP.back in full form!

Dallas GEP 23:26 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Shorted AUSSIE 8298 for 8240 target

Dallas GEP 23:19 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
closed KIWI longs at 7445

Syd 22:19 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Spanish real estate
Published: April 24 2007 20:54 | Last updated: April 24 2007 20:54

How timely it is to be reminded that dangerously inflated markets do not last forever. In the past few days, Spanish real estate has exhibited all the signs of a bursting bubble. While unfortunate for the owners of Spanish homes and property stocks, a popping sound should focus the minds of all investors in risky assets.

The speed of such corrections is always humbling. A week ago, developer Astroc Mediterraneo was the darling of the sector, trading at €45 per share. On Tuesday, following financing concerns, its share price is just €16. Amazingly, this still equates to a forward price/earnings multiple of 20 times. The sell-off in real estate has now spread into the local construction and banking sectors too. It will be interesting to watch whether investor panic travels to other pockets of property irrationality across Europe and beyond.

Lex FT.com

Syd 22:16 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Just wonder whats going to happen when the ECB gets rates up to 4% , thats when the fun and games will start Ireland feeling it now even with low rates

Spanish property boom ends
Spain’s overpriced property stocks came crashing down on Tuesday, with panic selling in the real estate sector signalling the end of a 10-year-old construction boom.
LINK

Como Perrie 22:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 21:52 GMT April 24, 2007

:))):) am just working at the TEDIUM MARKET MODEL, a witz ala markowitz where the funtellers are the central bankers

GVI john 22:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 22:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3625	118.66	1.2028	1.9999	1.1227	0.8267	161.67
High	1.3636	118.95	1.2105	2.0045	1.1247	0.8339	161.69
Low	1.3548	118.24	1.2007	1.9957	1.1193	0.8233	160.23
04/24/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/24/2007					
5 day 	1.3595	118.60	1.2061	2.0024	1.1248	0.8336	161.23
10 day	1.3553	119.02	1.2104	1.9947	1.1298	0.8323	161.17
20 day 	1.3458	118.73	1.2145	1.9818	1.1422	0.8234	159.73
50 day 	1.3308	118.43	1.2197	1.9625	1.1577	0.8033	157.60
100 day	1.3179	119.09	1.2270	1.9608	1.1637	0.7928	156.92
200 day	1.2983	118.06	1.2334	1.9271	1.1452	0.7777	153.28

UK Alex 21:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
A frustrated trader writes:
Confidence may be managed indefinitely. Money may be printed indefinitely. Market may be propped up indefinitely. Is there not any point where / when foreign owners of US equities call this charade for what it is ? A bunch of crap. I mean I am going to stop buying puts and save the dollar bills for the fireplace next winter.

Lahore FM 21:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:39 GMT April 24, 2007
some of your observations are incisive and others mundane but you are surely well on your way Kaprikorn.gtgl.

USA Zeus 21:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Let's see if the EUR/USD 1.3777 quadratic gets hit.

USA Zeus 21:48 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 19:32 GMT April 24, 2007
A price inflection calculation..
GT! :-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
shorted EURJPY 161.67 & GBPJPY 237.24
I see the $Y going down and will drag these - E$ broke the high with no big follow thru so maybe the crosses will get some movement..

LKWD JJ 21:29 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
capetown instead of watching this mkt you can mow the lawn!!!

London NYAM 21:25 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
kaprikorn// maybe too many things too look at? I try and decide where i will be wrong prior to the trade and upgrade as the price changes in your favour and exit when it doesnt. Ive been holding this long since 2.0003/6 (broker gave me 2.0010 ask) even under whater to the low at 1.9953. Now, finally the decision corridor is narrowing. I honestly don't care if i'm wrong but if im right there should be a couple of hundred in it.

Good luck to you.

Cape Town 21:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Re last chirp ... my grass is still growing faster!

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:04 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
I observe the 4 hour charts EURUSD & GBPUSD - they both have very bullish outlook - MACD rising - all MAs lined up for a takeoff ...
and :) the Wedge in Cable just upgraded a bit but still looking promising..
- btw we broke the Record High in EURUSD 1.3638...so the uptrend is intact...
- this will pressure I guess the CAD down

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:59 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Fair to say that we don't know how much money stands between this level and 162.6? What about the Golden Week? Any settlements before or after? What has changed fundamentally?

LKWD JJ 20:55 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 20:19 GMT April 24, 2007
the whole confusion came from the fact that I gave too much confidence to the breakout of the Wedge pattern
===============================
it broke to the upside, its supposed to break to the downside.this is called a headfake and within the whole picture ta,fundamentals ,etc there was no reason for it to go up. the 4hr chart is still showing that a pullback is likely towards 19870-80. the downmove was instigated by aussie taking the wind out of the carry trade somewhat sending $y down as well.

Sofia Kaprikorn 20:19 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
the whole confusion came from the fact that I gave too much confidence to the breakout of the Wedge pattern...

however I saw smtg strange that put my scenario away from confidence - GBPUSD stalled at 40 while the EURUSD & EURGBP rallied - so I saw some divergence that I couldn't understand - so when I don't have an idea what is going on - then definately you make mistakes...
in hindsight I had to take those 20 pips from 20 to 40 and leave the EURUSD since it is in a trend and it was obvious that "some big players" will aim for the record High.. however in hindsight...

Mtl JP 19:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad more likely to see <1.1150 than >1.1310

London NYAM 19:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Raising stop loss on USDGBP to 1.9950. Kaprikorn sorry you had to bail on the cable-car. I still think this is going north. Best of luck on your next trade.

LKWD JJ 19:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
zeus how do you arrive at 25? midpoint of todays range depeding on data feed? i think that the falling oil will be the fuel. buy stops will accumulate above the highs, to catch a breakout move.

USA Zeus 19:22 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Lower low higher high
USD/CAD higher all set from here.
Marked 1.1225 as a fulcrum point from where volatility is likely to increase.

Como Perrie 19:10 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
there's nothing real in the last hours, just machine's global netting of flows.... basically tells nothing, maybe a stop level area... the usdindex is getting closer and closer to the point of market crazyness, might be tomorrow or next week - Its just a blow in the wind away of a hurricane enviroment imo... no forecast so far nor prediction is possible, hence tomorrow central bankers speeches the pullbackers and bouncebuyers will follow will be volatility undesired...but markets at a certain point will vomit out all those verbal interventions back em in face

Gen dk 18:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Halifax CB 18:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Interesting point in eurjpy atm - it's pretty close to a descending trendline from around the 15th of this month. My indicators indicate sideways, so I'm just watching. Plus my drawing skills chartwise are a little dubious :)

CT Kris 18:23 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Randall - no one can match wits with my twin's intellectual powerhouse!

Perth Randall El 18:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
There you are Cris. That is a bit different vs reporting executed trades on live acct.

CT Cris 18:03 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 17:56 GMT April 24, 2007
CT Cris 17:53 GMT April 24, 2007
======
20005 chart reading...platform 20008/9

madrid mm 18:02 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 17:57 GMT April 24, 2007

8+)

Ldn 18:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Spanish property groups weigh on Europe
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/8107c6de-f24d-11db-a454-000b5df10621.html

HK Kevin 17:57 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 17:41 GMT, there is an art to science, and a scienc in art. From Dr Issac Asimov, not mine.

UK Alex 17:56 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:53 GMT April 24, 2007
Which bank gave you that price? I didn't see better than 2.0008 on the offer side.

CT Cris 17:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 14:22 GMT April 24, 2007
CT Cris 13:56 GMT April 24, 2007
gbp.usd
====
sold @ 20007 b4 data.

===sold another at 20037

will exit now @ 20005 for both positions.

CT Cris 17:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 14:22 GMT April 24, 2007
CT Cris 13:56 GMT April 24, 2007
gbp.usd
====
sold @ 20007 b4 data.

===sold another at 20037

will exit now @

The Netherlands Purk 17:50 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Gets interesting now: the bugger is ticking to the highs, lets see what e/u will do. If u/j gets up with it, it will give some balance, that will only give a few upticks.
Keep an eye on the closingprice of e/u, it will give direction of tomorrow, unless there are players outthere who have interest in e/u not going up to the 13638 thing...

AZUSA 4x-ed 17:46 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Keeping an eye out on that Kaprikorn line (i.e. EY pennant/res. line) myself...

madrid mm 17:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 17:29 GMT April 24, 2007

Trading is IMHO as much an ART as a Science 8-)

madrid mm 17:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 17:32 GMT April 24, 2007
The Netherlands Purk 17:31 GMT April 24, 2007
my view as well !


Sofia Kaprikorn 17:29 GMT April 24, 2007
All IMHO , on the euro/usd. It has the tendency to run up, stall, come back a little and up again.
Believe me i was caught a few times that way. In particular on fridays !!!! 8-)

At least you are honest with yourelf and realise your mistakes.
Keep learning and keep the faith. 8-)

By the way I posted something about a free course offered by the CME earlier on. Did you find it ? I posted it on the Help Forum as well. Could be useful.

The Netherlands Purk 17:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Furthermore Kapikorn, in such a day pattern tells you that the highs from the day will visited again, and again. So sorting on the way back sounds err, strange....

The Netherlands Purk 17:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn,
You where longing at the end of the so called day, movement run out of breath. After your call i saw at least the 37, so you could start with setting s/l at b/e or just in profit. This will stop you out, but you can try again and again and again...

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:29 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
well quite bad trading I did today - the long GBPUSD from 2.0020 closed with minor loss -3 pips
had also long EURUSD from 1.3626 but closed at 16
now holding short from 1.3613...
to observe the charts and find tradable scenarios is fine but trading them is the real challenge.

AZUSA 4x-ed 17:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Period of calm in the GBPCHF... could go up from here or it may get dropped like a bad cheese curd.

USA Zeus 17:17 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
NYC 17:07 GMT April 24, 2007

It is possible that if/when USD/CAD launches we'll hear "Beam me up, Scotty!" LOL

UK Alex 17:11 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sell-off in crude oil (June) futures is technical in nature. Failure to penetrate $66 caused a cascade effect in profit taking as stops got hit.

UK Alex 17:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Most likely to be M&A related.

Sofia Kaprikorn 17:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Any idea - GBPUSD retraced from the recent high and EURUSD still hangs there.. a lag - but is it coming from some EUR cross buying?

NYC 17:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, you sound like you watch too much Star Trek

USA Zeus 17:05 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Well submarine-Z has been given word that the Trident D-5 launch command will be ordered. All systems standby.

LKWD JJ 17:03 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
is there agap in $yen from 64-62 1hr chart? see em see has 1 @1400-1500.

lkwd jj 17:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
sorry jp. but i just wanted to post that i was wrong in the begining and saved face in the end but didnt post it.

Mtl JP 16:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
geez guys 'n gals... what is up with all the recaps? gv now the history channel ?

RIC fxq 16:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR - this one's for you:

San
Francisco, April 24. USD/JPY has bounced back to 118.53 after a low of 118.35
this morning with rumored semi-official bids behind the bid at the lows this
morning. The move up takes USD/JPY back to the familiar range seen yesterday
with bids from Japanese accounts still eyed around 118.20/25 and offers at
119.00. Stops are eyed above 119.05/10 but offers are staggered ahead of
119.40/50. The bounce back in the USD/JPY to current levels is further
reinforcing expectations that USD/JPY will remain in a 117.50-119 range into
Golden Week holidays and that CPI data and the BOJ semi-annual report may not
have much impact.

[IFR Forex Watch]

lkwd jj 16:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 02:30 GMT April 24, 2007
kaprikorn on 1hr chart cad showing good strength.

LKWD JJ 00:38 GMT April 24, 2007
$cad ready for night flight.
================
first we had crash and burn as she took out 1.12. bought 02 with tight stop before 9am and sold out 29. made up for the other ones.

GENEVA DS 16:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Stocks are rising when OIL goes down, Stocks are rising when OIL goes up, Stocks are rising with bad housing figures and stocks are rising with good housing figures.... exactly like USDJPY is doing... watch out... gl

USA Zeus 16:23 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Alex- Thx for clarification. Just curious what elevation you were viewing it from.
cheers.

UK Alex 16:21 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Zeus// Yes, obviously! :-)

USA Zeus 16:20 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Alex- So you mean intraday (today) then?

UK Alex 16:18 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Zeus// Oil down, stocks up?

madrid mm 16:16 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
13000 coming for DJ ?

USA Zeus 16:16 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 16:14 GMT April 24, 2007
Alex- What correlation do you notice?

UK Alex 16:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Can't help noticing the correlation between oil and stocks.

madrid mm 16:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
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Bodrum OEE 16:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 16:05 GMT April 24, 2007

Thanks

USA Zeus 16:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Noise in the SP 500 pit picking up.

Como Perrie 16:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 16:05 GMT April 24, 2007

I do not consider Iraq a problem of mine, but if I do scroll the history of Iraq back some 20-30 years and even at the beginning of the previous century when the first world war was sparked for the control of oil and the nowadays AMOCO once Persian oil, It seems me this is the end of the story started in cycles long time ago.

USA Zeus 16:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 16:01 GMT April 24, 2007

Agree Perrie. People here judge the decisions of others based on their own styles/expectations/capital etc. All we can say is that it adds to the spice of life here.
GT! :-)

fairfield JC 16:05 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Yeah the talks on the US pulling out of Iraq.

Como Perrie 16:03 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
ref. beer earlier I said 18 bucks not pounds

Como Perrie 16:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 15:53 GMT April 24, 2007

Hope we see 1.13 by tomorrow, but ...as we are never sure of It, you know the older adagio about strategic positions...If you scroll lower most here looking for 5 to 15 pips a trades so not really the place where to post such things... Just earlier the London morning an experienced trader was questioning onto the logic of my eurgbp long established yesterday at 6776 and bout the dummy manamgment to hold It into present and not to sell pullbacks and bounces....well I can do both If I want and the heck to those trying to disguise yours way of acting and thinking as there are 22,000 ways to approach the market, even with a vacation

Bodrum OEE 16:00 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 15:40 GMT April 24, 2007

Thank you. Meanwhile were you responding to a comment with your post timed 15:08 GMT April 24, 2007 ?

fairfield JC 16:00 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:53 GMT April 24, 2007

If we had trust in GOD then I dont think we would be in such a hole that we are in now. I mean I am sure it is ok for us to be killing a ton of ppl while in Iraq....right? We are getting alot of support globally and from the G-O-D for that bright manuever.

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:59 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
london phil 15:53 GMT April 24, 2007 || by that token, I would like a follow up response on the $5 joint!

RIC fxq 15:58 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
london phil 15:53 GMT

must be "craft brewed, designer" pints! rotfl

Como Perrie 15:57 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
:) How much Phil you got a beer there...

PS
Was somewhere downtown nearby the city

london phil 15:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
18 bucks a pint hmm what sort of places have you been drinking in perri

USA Zeus 15:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Ok- Sold off a bit more USD/CAD for +15 teenies @ 1.1232.
Zeus has a big position at 1.1217. Future looks bright. Let's see...

Como Perrie 15:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   

fairfield JC 15:51 GMT April 24, 2007

the other day heard a trader quoting that the Usd is still strong becous on It It writes in god we thrust...gonna believe It you don't need math education nor analysis anymore...that's very good approach for easy money

madrid mm 15:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Fairfield JC 15:47 GMT April 24, 2007

Not long !!! not long at all !!! 8-)
Many traders here much better than me that's for sure !!!
But i am sure they are older as well. lol !!!!

gl/ gt Fairfield and welcome to the wonderful world of Global- view FF.... I can not remember who told me FF stands for Funny Farm !!! 8-)

fairfield JC 15:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Amen to that. Another reason why the USD has some room to get stronger. Them brits need their pints, and if they are to expensive then they will sacrifice their currencies strength to get'em.

USA Zeus 15:47 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Crude oil reminds us that everything is cyclical.

Como Perrie 15:47 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 15:28 GMT April 24, 2007

:) agree on that...I am considering cable as per my beer basket highly overvalued or inflation in US decoupled to China or what..but am starting to believe It. In london you pay 18 bucks a beer in nyc just 5. Here is something currency traders of nowadays aren't anymore capable to figure out since abusing of those indicators a news triggers. Funny the recent Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning I just receive into my email - must be of yesterday but do not know as no time to read It

Excerpt from Bill Bonner's Daily Reckoning:

What a delightful, degenerate economy! AP reports that three million manufacturing jobs have been lost in the United States since George W. Bush came into the White House. But who cares about making anything anymore? Who cares about actually creating the things that really make people wealthier? The money is not in making things...but in shuffling paper around.

fairfield JC 15:47 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Well good luck to you, you seem to be doing alright. On the news just watch out for the killer spreads on certain brokers. How long have you been trading? FYI....the GBP/JPY is great for scalping depending on the spread that you have.

fairfield JC 15:40 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 15:35 GMT April 24, 2007

Long Long Long, I feel the USD will get strong against the majors leaving the highs and lows that it is hitting behind for quiet a while. I was more the opposite but since it has been stalling and other global indicators I feel that this is it. It might weaken a bit more make new lows against the Euro and cable but in the next two weeks or so it should strengthen.

USA Zeus 15:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
A bit bored. Stocks are slowing so sliced off sold a slab and took some teenies (+12) on my USD/CAD @ 1.1229. Same new cost remains (1.1217) as the tower stands tall.

madrid mm 15:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
me ? i am a beginner in this trade so i don t think i can be useful really.
I trade mainly euro-usd, usd-yen, usd-chf.
I am trying to learn on how to trade the news.
As an example today i traded gbp-usd . I waited for the 2 pm gmt news. I put some buy limit above the price, 10 pips, 12 pips, 14 pips and 16 pips. But i put in tight take profit, 7 pips...

Today it worked, but tomorrow is another day.

1 thing i leanrt is that we need a plan in thi market that is for sure. Different people, different trading strategy and tactics. That is the beauty of this mrket really ! Again All IMHO 8-)

fairfield JC 15:36 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:27 GMT April 24, 2007

Missed my shot at the Euro high, to short, and also the CHF long when it hit about 12008. Oh well, nothing to worry about at least you and others are in the right trade.

Bodrum OEE 15:35 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield 15:08 GMT April 24, 2007


Hello JC. Could you kindly clarify what do you mean by dollar to take over the markets (i.e. up or down?) Thank you.

USA Zeus 15:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:05 GMT April 24, 2007
Thx NYAM! 

AZUSA 4x-ed 14:51 GMT April 24, 2007

Professor- Thank you for the spectacular truth about barbed wire charts- Throw enough out there and eventually something will get entangled. We can then name it after someone and call it legendary magic.

madrid mm 15:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
As an example i shorted euro/usd at 1.3630ish.... I am letting it run a little and i am putting some order in usd-yen and usd-chf to prevent a situation against me !!!!
I just got a fill for usd-yen at 118.58 with a smaller position....
8-)

fairfield JC 15:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:27 GMT April 24, 2007

I sleep much better as well, but I shut off my Mac. Haha. And yes I know about the ATR or daily range's. Which pairs do you ususally trade? I trade pretty much whatever I come across but mostly the majors and yuans.

madrid mm 15:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
plus when a big possition comes in , i hedge with another pair but this @##@@%#$^&*^ YEN has been hard to crack lately , ie no correlation whatosever between usd-yen and euro-yen ...fwiw 8-) and All IMHO

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Find it hard to believe this market is unwilling to launch some depth charges on 1.2 $CHF...

Mtl JP 15:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:03 / or eggs it would seem: "The Dow [and US stocks generally] cannot even compete in price with a carton of eggs in the United States, which is up 30% just last year." - Peter Schiff

and on top of that one can save the 2% + management fee and 20% of profits BUT 0% of losses...

madrid mm 15:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 15:21 GMT April 24, 2007

Of course i can not anwer for PAR 8-) So i do not know.

As for me , I am a day trader only. I can sleep better when i switch off my pc. 8-).

Normally once you have found a base for most currencies you can scalp for 5,10,20 pips etc.... Plus you are aware i am sure of their average daily range.

Makassar Alimin 15:25 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
please do not underestimate the power of PAR-san and his associates, usdjpy can fly in no time leaving everyone with question 'what was that?' ;)

hk ab 15:22 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
dlrchf long now stop at entry.

fairfield JC 15:21 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:15 GMT April 24, 2007

I am just curious why he is buying now. I have to agree with him. I feel strongly that a huge turn around is coming for the USD because of some force or wierd events that will happen soon. But then again I am kind of a mystic so who knows. Also, I dont take long term trades, I scalp the currencies but I am considering a long term trade these days, long USD across the board.

madrid mm 15:19 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:16 GMT April 24, 2007

Easy ! You scratch my back, i scratch yours 8-)

GENEVA DS 15:18 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Dear KAMPO, BoJ, Honda etc... etc... Dear PAR ...

I like being long USDJPY... we ALLLLLLLL will join this party... but myself, I will try to Dance very close to the door.... gl...

Bodrum OEE 15:17 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia 10:15 GMT April 24, 2007

Zdrávejte. Any view on that subject you have asked a confirmation from me Kaprikorn? Thanks

Como Perrie 15:17 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
on bloomberg radio interesting talks on subprime mortgage housing...all is good news if It cools down the whole the analysts says

UK Alex 15:16 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 15:13 GMT April 24, 2007
How can it be when one of its major trading partners is China?

madrid mm 15:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 15:12 GMT April 24, 2007

they have these DARK Forces in Japan called
-Kampo
-BoJ
-MoF
-Toyota
-Honda
-Nissan
and friends lol

fairfield JC 15:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:07 GMT April 24, 2007
Long USDJPY from 118.45 . Target 122.OO . Stop Kampo

What is/was your signal to buy? TIA

madrid mm 15:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 15:12 GMT April 24, 2007

i would love to know that myself. but as PAR will tell you, JPY is not entirely a free floating currency 8-)

Como Perrie 15:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 15:08 GMT April 24, 2007

doubt all those calls.. you know war is one of the top big investment that rarely returns It back before decades, If It returns anything rather than more taxes and inflation... Controversely in a liberal-democracy-free good global markets It's rather a typical Keynesian distorted instrument to save an economy in troubled waters

fairfield JC 15:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Why is the USD/JPY basically calling the markets these days? Which ever direction it moves the other JPy's follow and vice vers with the Euro and GBP. When did it change from the GBP/JPY leading the cable and the JPY's? Is it because there is so much pressure on the usd/jpy? anyone have any insight?

UK Alex 15:10 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
ab, You asked me ealier about gold. Well I think it could be a shakeout as we approach the '06 anniversary of the gold fall last spring.

Como Perrie 15:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:06 GMT April 24, 2007

:) the two are related plus exponential overpop indicator never shows It wrong on pollution

madrid mm 15:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
PAR 15:07 GMT April 24, 2007

welcome back 8-)

fairfield JC 15:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Unfortunately those were just talks.....Busch isnt the most intelligent and flexible person, so us staying in Iraq seems more of a fantasy or fairytale at this point. But if that were to happen. Watch out.....dollar would take over the markets for sure.

PAR 15:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Long USDJPY from 118.45 . Target 122.OO . Stop Kampo .

HK Kevin 15:06 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 15:03 GMT, I like clean water more.

Como Perrie 15:06 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 15:04 GMT April 24, 2007

Yeap the strange thing It happens just days after the US talks of a possible retreat from Iraq.

London NYAM 15:05 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:21 GMT April 24, 2007// Well Zeus eventually you will be right. For the love of God I hope you are…

CT Cris 14:22 GMT April 24, 2007// I would recommend lightening up at 2.0010. I strongly believe this will be the last test of 2.000 downside for a few days at least (if not longer).

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:32 GMT April 24, 2007// I’m sorry I restrict my views to GBP,JPY and USD with hobby interest inspired by Zeus on CAD.
Welcom to the cable ship by the way.

fairfield JC 15:04 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Last Updated: Tuesday, 24 April 2007, 11:31 GMT 12:31 UK

The armed wing of the Palestinian Hamas movement has said it is ending its five-month truce with Israel. Fired rockets into israel today.

Como Perrie 15:03 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
If I can suggest some central banks diversifications problems.

INVEST IN VEGETABLES

madrid mm 15:00 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Gunmen raided a Chinese-run oil field in eastern Ethiopia today, killing at least 74 people and kidnapping seven, the Associated Press reported, citing an official of the Chinese company.

Nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopians were killed and seven Chinese workers were kidnapped, the AP said, citing Xu Shuang, general manager of Zhongyuan Petroleum Exploration Bureau, based in Addis Ababa.

(AP 4-24 Online)

To contact the reporter on this story: Gregory Viscusi in Paris at [email protected]

Como Perrie 14:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
yeap strange this market positioning..the most interesting was the lost in carry confidence started in australia earlier today with the UBS risk aversion showin less interest in such.. on the other side we do have the Usd yet pretty sound given the datas we have seen so this might help USDCAD sustaining into tomorrow a touch into 1.1280 or so... on the other side some billions of stops are placed on the UsdJpy between 11820 to th 118...Gold is said big resistance is placed at 715...

so we might see this narrow rebalancing of flows or a gold big surge or a yen surge.. or a mixture of the above as central banks said want to cut volatility.. we are going to see as usual this global melange unreasonably managed :)

AZUSA 4x-ed 14:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Well Dr. Z, there's hope bottled and delivered to you via our good friend BR:

"And yet traders are bored to tears by chewing over the same old themes and may be interested in entertaining some new ideas--like the idea that the dollar has been oversold. If you can’t sell it, buy it--and in the process, trigger a domino effect on stops by weak hands (the retail market). Show ‘em who’s boss. Then confuse everyone by seeming to halt the retracement at some handy Fibonacci or Gann level, only to do it again. With the Fib and Gann numbers covering just about every possible level (from 12.5% to 75% by 25’s and the Fibonacci sequence), one of the numbers is bound to be right, or nearly right."

hk ab 14:50 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
long dlr/chf 1.2022.

London AL 14:43 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
shud read

----------------------------------------
closed longs from 2.0010 and 1.9980 at 2.0040 for overall 60 pips.

Sofia mik 14:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
us/cad chart
http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/USDCAD20070424161212.GIF

ABHA FXS 14:35 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/CHF...
========
BEST LONG FOR 2 POSTION
2.4060
2.4046
========
NICE TRADE..

warsaw TOMi 14:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
€/$ 3636 target reached, square 3633.

The Netherlands Purk 14:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
And again here we are in swissy. Shall it go under the 1,20?
11983 is a perfect long with 11961 stop.
MIB are doing the me a favour now and long it all the way to 13638...

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
interesting to see that the advence in EURUSD and EURGBP - slowed the advance in GBPUSD...

AZUSA 4x-ed 14:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:28 GMT April 24, 2007 || equities seem to agree with your assesment. As Zeus pointed out, good battle in the pits!

madrid mm 14:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
doesn't this hourly usd-yen looks like head and shoulder @ +/- 119 ?

hard to break so far this 119.....fwiw

Expect the unexpected

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GBPCHF broke the Support line at 2.4115... the USDCHF decline is very violent..

Mtl JP 14:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
deep deep ocean crevasse below 1.1180 on hourly close. 1.11 monsters below

USA Zeus 14:26 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 14:23 GMT April 24, 2007

Yep. Thx for the concern.
To me the 5 DMA is not a rule that controls price.

UK Alex 14:25 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Top tenure agressive sellers in the market today.

London AL 14:25 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
London AL 18:14 GMT April 23, 2007
London AL 17:04 GMT April 23, 2007
gbp.usd
=====
time to buy.
========
buy 2.0000/10

buy another lower 30 pip intervals .
close all 2.0040/50.
===
already entred long at 2.0010.

----------------------------------------
closed longs from 2.0010 and 1.9970 at 2.0040 for overall 80 pips.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:24 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
btw - it is very obvious this front running before some important data - Especially US data...
UK Alex - was right in suggesting this even 1-2 hours ago.. but it is more evident in the spikes in the last 5-6 min before the release

warsaw TOMi 14:24 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
short swissy squared 2020.

The Netherlands Purk 14:24 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Loonie: 11211 broken for the second time, guess we did not see the low yet...

hk ab 14:24 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
I blame myself hard on this dlr/chf short exited MUCH earlier.

hk ab 14:23 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
zeus, you mean dlr/cad will go up from here? the 5 dma is still untouched!

Just play safe.

CT Cris 14:22 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 13:56 GMT April 24, 2007
gbp.usd
====
sold @ 20007 b4 data.

===sold another at 20037

USA Zeus 14:21 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
The hellfire thunder strike flow model now shows USD/CAD poised for a reversal.

USA Zeus 14:18 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:10 GMT April 24, 2007

Thx for your concern. Not chasing this. Just using building blocks to position/reposition for a tall order. Old cost was 1.1234 as posted from last week so simply added some pillars.
GT! :-)

ABHA FXS 14:17 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD...
========
BEST SHORT FOR 3 POSTION
1.3617
========
NICE TRADE..

ABHA FXS 14:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD...
========
BEST SHORT FOR 3 POSTION
2.0017
2.0040
2.0062
========
NICE TRADE..

UK Alex 14:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
ab, dollar is sure to fall through there with all the liquidity pumping recently.

hk ab 14:11 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
impt moment for usd 'cos the dlrindex 80 will be tested soon.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:10 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:58 //
this constant cost cutting will make your toil undervalued :)

Lahore FM 14:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
from GVI a while back:

GVI Jay 14:01 GMT April 24, 2007
*US MAR NAR HOME RESALES -8.4% TO 6.12M; FEB REV DN TO 6.68M

*ALERT: US CONF BOARD: NSA 12-MO INFL EXPECT +5.2% APR VS MAR +4.9%

*ALERT: US CONF BOARD CONSUMR CONFIDENCE INDX APR 104.0 V MAR 108.2 (upward revised0

*ALERT: US RICHMOND FED: APR MFG INDEX -11 VS MAR -10

hk ab 14:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
eur might want a taste of 1.3660 again.

UK Alex 14:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
ab, seems likely doesn't it.

Mtl JP 14:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 13:58 / you been buyin exponetially since 1.18, your avg should be 1.11

hk ab 14:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
I think cad has been strong because China keeps buying oil everyday for the reserve matter.

Sofia Kaprikorn 14:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
entered long GBPUSD 2.0020 on a break of the upper wedge line..

hk ab 14:06 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, the mkt is not kind enough to let me add at the 5 dma again..... GT and GL :D

HK Kevin 14:04 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:43 GMT, hold ;ong USD/CAD 1.1228 since last Fri, covered earlier at 1.1236 for a bus fare. Lose my patience.

The Netherlands Purk 13:59 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Well i dont think that NN has longed yet in this BOC thing, so we might be in for a surprise later. That 11211 can spoil that one. First we have to get to 11244 and 11266 and 11288 for gains on the long side.
The loonie keeps a lot of people busy is see.
e/u? it creeps to the 136 again so i guess this 135 thing is solid. But why do i have the feeling that we are going to drop a few rounds. 13638 will spoil that btw.
Also the creeping in e/j is starting again...

madrid mm 13:58 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 13:47 GMT April 24, 2007

8-)

I am i n the wrong city 8-)
El Bulli is world's best restaurant for third time

24 April 2007

BARCELONA -El Bulli, the restaurant made famous for its surrealist dishes and the difficulty of getting a place there, has been voted the world's best restaurant again.

Owned by Spanish cook Ferran Adrià, it won the prestigious title awarded by Restaurant magazine for the third time.

El Bulli, in Rosas, near Barcelona, won the majority of votes from 651 judges.

USA Zeus 13:58 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:43 GMT April 24, 2007
Not sure yet. Am busy in stocks during the early NY session. Will assess in a few.

Forgot to mention- New USD/CAD cost 1.1217

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:58 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:52 GMT //
tnx - I was confused a bit since a hawkish statement should have pushed it thru the bottom.

EURUSD & GBPUSD - some frontrunning of the data due in 2 min?

CT Cris 13:56 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
====
sold @ 20007 b4 data.

fairfield JC 13:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
11 years ago....you were a schoolboy....I see, I think I am still the youngest one here. Anyway, looks like the dream/cognition might be coming true after all. Dlr stalling and ready for it major major gain on the others. Yuan climbing out of its recent hole as well. I will stop talking now.

Mtl JP 13:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Kaprikorn 13:42 / The BoC suits have essentialy admitted, despite their high salaries, modern computers and fancy econometric models, that they have been getting things wrong: "But inflation has been higher than expected. Pressures on capacity over the past year have been stronger than previously judged." duh! They "judge" and thus they mis-judge.

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
oops and = and not

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:50 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Easy JC, it's only a city and Loren...

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:48 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield - then I was a schoolboy - now @ 30

fairfield JC 13:47 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
woops....Sofia, I just got up I am still coming too.

madrid mm 13:46 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 13:45 GMT April 24, 2007
Sophia,????????

madrid mm 13:45 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM 13:41 GMT April 24, 2007

8-)

fairfield JC 13:45 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sophia, earlier you said that you were young in 1996......How old are you if you dont mind me asking? Totally off the sublect but this sparks my interest.

hk ab 13:43 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
zeus, do you thin out some this round?

Sofia Kaprikorn 13:42 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:37 //
JP, hello - may I ask you smtg just from principle point of view on CAD and BOC decision?

Lahore FM 13:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 13:39 GMT April 24, 2007
variety is the life spice so the place is lively.

USA Zeus 13:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Well Happy day!
Some USD/CAD 1.1200 limits done for the catchers mitt.

madrid mm 13:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
I have to admit , we have some "funny" characters in this room !!!
lol don t you just love diversity ?!?!!? 8-)

Mtl JP 13:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Kwang 13:29 / welcome Kwang, breath of freshness and spiritual perspective into THE den of the MOST wickeds. how thick is your skin?

hk ab 13:35 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
dlr/cad of course.....

UK Alex 13:35 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
[Dow Jones] June bunds pare gains, and print an intraday low of 113.95 as the Belgian April business confidence index rises to 3.8 from 1.4 in March, higher than forecast of 2.2. June bunds, 114.09 prior to the data, are currently up 0.04 at 113.98.

AZUSA 4x-ed 13:34 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:31 GMT April 24, 2007 || So is the one for E$. Pointing it out just in case you want to follow the "law"

RIC fxq 13:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:17 GMT

et tu (jp)us?

rotfl

hk ab 13:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
JP..that magical 5dma is now at 1.1253 fwiw.

madrid mm 13:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Four Foreign Banks Offer Local Currency Retail Banking Services to Customers in Mainland ChinaClick here

Parisj Van Java Kwang 13:29 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Happy those who do not follow the counsel of the wicked, Nor go the way of sinners, nor sit in company with scoffers.
Rather, the law of the LORD is their joy; God's law they study day and night.
They are like a tree planted near streams of water, that yields its fruit in season; Its leaves never wither; whatever they do prospers

Plovdiv Gotin 13:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD options esxpired today?TIA.

hk ab 13:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
exit dlr/chf short here. 1.2066.

madrid mm 13:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Top banks start forex services in China -
The on-going opening of the China market to foreign financial services firms has generated a lot of excitement. The latest is that Citigroup, HSBC and two other banks have launched local currency retail banking services on the mainland. This move has been anticipated for years. In some ways it is a momentous event. The banks are expected to focus on the growing ranks of the country's wealthy, who are more familiar with foreign-style banks. Not to be outdone, Bank of China, the country's second-biggest lender, launched a private banking service for millionaires only, in partnership with the Royal Bank of Scotland, which has a tiny stake in the Chinese bank. We'll see a lot more services launched soon. Hopefully, all this will pay off. But it will be quite a while.

Mtl JP 13:20 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AHMADJAN 13:07, why you want to do the "Canadian thing" (lets sit down, have some tea and biscuits and talk about it) ? Ahmadinejad offers to hold direct talks with U.S. President Bush

with the American ? Jon Stewart from The daily Show (Comedy Channel) wants to have Bush come on for a talk too, maybe he could host your party.

Lahore FM 13:19 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 13:17 GMT April 24, 2007
some divergences in place with post boc rise on hourlies and subhourlies.wait and see might work better for the sell side if at all.all imho of course.

UK Alex 13:19 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
* Gold Eagle Mines Ltd. Closes C$80M Bought-Deal Of Common Shares

Mtl JP 13:17 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
The Loon can dive 60m (200 feet): dlrcad heading for 1.11 level. sl > 1.1245

madrid mm 13:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Spain is in good company ! 8-)

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Declines in home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas accelerated in the 12 months ended in February, a private survey showed today.

Values fell 1 percent from February 2006 after dropping 0.1 percent in the year ended January, according to the S&P/Case- Shiller home-price index. January's decrease was the first since the group started keeping year-over-year records in 2001.

Slow demand has left a glut of homes for sale on the market that's forcing sellers to reduce prices, economists said. A rise in foreclosures may add to the number of unsold homes, suggesting prices will be slow to rebound and housing will continue to limit economic growth.

Cali mmm 13:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
TKS FM !

Lahore FM 13:11 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
mmm,i am for the bid usdcad.eurcad,sell cadjpy.

Cali mmm 13:10 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
FM, with the latest news on CAD, what is your bias? Any target for today? TKS!

Lahore FM 13:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
''The upside risk to the Bank's inflation projection is that the recent strength of inflation could be more persistent than projected. The downside risk continues to come from the possibility of a more pronounced slowdown in the U.S. economy. The Bank continues to judge that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced, although there is now a slight tilt to the upside.''

--
early reaction makes usdcad bid.

IRAN AHMADJAN 13:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   

I WISH TO ISRAEL HAPPY BIRTHDAY SUCCESS AND PROSPERITY!!!

DEAR ISRAEL GOD BLESS YOU!!!.

Lahore FM 13:02 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
BOC not all that hawkish!or sell the news.

UK Alex 13:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
* Bank Of Canada Overnight Rate Tgt: Unch At 4.25%

London JBS 13:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
BANK OF CANADA HOLDS O/N RATE AT 4.25 PCT; RISKS ROUGHLY BALANCED WITH SLIGHT UPSIDE TILT DUE TO CPI

CT Cris 13:00 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Alex
bad man see also everything is bad.

CT Cris 12:57 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Parisj Van Java Kwang 12:46 GMT April 24, 2007
hello. cris
====
I will short it b4 data , and short another at intervals 30 pips.
if rise.at least there is a 40-50 pips move to the down.

UK Alex 12:56 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Terra Firma has dropped its bid for Alliance Boots.

UK Alex 12:54 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:44 GMT April 24, 2007
Hope that is your bad English and not a personal attack on myself.

hk ab 12:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
any dlr/cad whales left?

Global-View 12:49 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
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Sofia Kaprikorn 12:49 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
HK ab - most probably due to this rumor: UK Alex 12:35

Parisj Van Java Kwang 12:46 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
hello. cris
how your predict for cable today. I will short at 2.0040 en stop at 2.0060? your comment? thank you

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:46 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GBPCHF - 2 hour chart:

steadily trending in channel - Support is the 200 MA - the price bounced off it at 2.398 - - then at 2.404 and today off 2.4102...
>> probably going for the Resistance line coming at around 2.4220-30

usa-pa bjkj 12:45 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
another rumor floating around is that certain interests want gbp/$ to remain above 2.0000 until june. i suggest not trading but watching.

hk ab 12:45 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
alex, was that the reason why gold just spiked?

CT Cris 12:44 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
bad man brings bad news.

AZUSA 4x-ed 12:44 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Makassar Alimin 12:34 GMT April 24, 2007 || My view exactly... which would also explain why EY is stalling at the 50 yard line instead of cruising to 75.

slv sam 12:43 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 12:35 GMT /
us$ negative!GT

NYC MSG 12:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Szervusz Budapest Z!

UK Alex 12:35 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Rumor floating around that the President of Egypt has died - - - unconfirmed

dc CB 12:34 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
The Daily
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Leading indicators
March 2007

The composite index advanced 0.4% in March, reinforcing its 0.7% gain the month before. Household spending remained the driving force of growth, boosted by a robust labour market. Financial market conditions also remained buoyant, with the stock market hitting a new record. Manufacturing continued to recover slowly, as sluggish US demand was compounded by the rail strike. (statscan)

Makassar Alimin 12:34 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 12:15 GMT April 24, 2007

when PAR is back, we will see usdjpy 125 ;)

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 12:14 //
hello - tnx for the comments - I just happen to look an interesting trend lines in EURJPY 2 hour chart:

- Uptrend - Lows 3/29 - 4/14 - 4/24 - it just bounced off the low..

- Consolidation channel - slightly down sloped from the High 162.34
>>> the price now is in Triangle between the Major Up trend and the Upper channel line - - a test at 161.60 will give more light to whether it will continue..

hk ab 12:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
it seems that the cad strength is coming from crosses as well.

AZUSA 4x-ed 12:29 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
I shouldn't be the one to talk after "thos EUG/GBP" ;-) GT

GVI john 12:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA- you are right those are AUD. Not sure how I changed the title. :)

AZUSA 4x-ed 12:22 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GVI john 12:18 GMT April 24, 2007 || Ya sure about thos EUG/GBP values?!

GVI john 12:19 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

GVI john 12:18 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3572	118.59	1.2096	2.0009	1.1224	0.8333	160.95
High	1.3607	119.04	1.2129	2.0061	1.1244	0.8377	161.82
Low	1.3547	118.23	1.2058	1.9973	1.1217	0.8317	160.47
04/23/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/23/2007					
5 day 	1.3583	118.85	1.2073	2.0036	1.1262	0.8355	161.16
10 day	1.3533	119.07	1.2119	1.9919	1.1323	0.8322	161.00
20 day 	1.3444	118.69	1.2151	1.9801	1.1439	0.8225	159.52
50 day 	1.3297	118.48	1.2206	1.9614	1.1586	0.8024	157.52
100 day	1.3175	119.05	1.2269	1.9604	1.1639	0.7924	156.83
200 day	1.2978	118.05	1.2336	1.9263	1.1452	0.7774	153.21
							

AZUSA 4x-ed 12:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Starting to miss PAR these days (hope he's OK)... seems that may be what's needed to get the mojo back on track!

London NYAM 12:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sophia//It might indeed. As I was relating last week. I believe this consolidation from the highs is a wave 4. To look like wave 5 is starting the 1.9980 level should hold before the 2.0020 level breaks. That may be determined by the data releases soon.

madrid mm 12:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GMT
13:00 CAD BOC rate decision Apr
13:15 GBP U.K. CBI industrial trends Apr
14:00 USD U.S. Existing home sales Mar
14:00 USD U.S. Existing home sales M/M Mar
14:00 USD U.S. Consumer confidence Apr

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:59 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
gven the expected soft data for US Housing - the Wedge in GBPUSD might well prove a continuation pattern..

ABHA FXS 11:56 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY...
========
BEST SHORT FOR 2 POSTION
161.40
161.57
========
NICE TRADE..

Mtl JP 11:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Budapest Z 11:41 / the powers that be constantly fight with the market over control of that perception.

ABHA FXS 11:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
USD/JPY...
========
BEST LONG FOR 2 POSTION
-
-
========
BEST SHORT FOR 2 POSTION
119.03
119.21
========
NICE TRADE..

madrid mm 11:49 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
European happiness survey-Apr 19th 2007 -From Economist.com

The Danes are the happiest people in Europe, and the north of the continent is happier than the south, according to a Cambridge University study by Luisa Corrado and Aqib Aslam. They analysed 20,000 responses from the biannual European Social Survey of 15 countries. While high income is an important factor, high trust in public institutions and in other people is a feature of the happier Nordic countries.…

Bodrum OEE 11:43 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia 10:15 GMT April 24, 2007


Kaprikorn hello and thank you. Yes that is correct.

Budapest Z 11:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
M4 cpi

madrid mm 11:40 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:04 GMT April 24, 2007

I am not Spanish, not that there is anything wrong with that 8-) and I am not a specialist but for what i understand is -
-Spanish builders like cash 8-) , i mean they have a culture a cash lover over here and they all try to avoid to pay taxes. Did you know that is in Spain that they have the most 50 Euro banknotes....ever wondered why ?! LOL
-it was a a complete shamble. Companies building anywhere and everywhere, a real jungle out there
-big buiding companies have started to diversify heavily, ie one buying BAA, another one buying Endessa under the nose of E On etc.
-anybody could be a real estate agent
-In Spain there is also all these tourists coming to Spain for the beach and sun, ie high demand
-while ECB is happy with the current inflation rate in the Euro zone, this is running much higher in Spain
- this gvnmet is trying to put the brakes on because there was a lot destruction as in nature destruction
-it i more and more current to see people borrowing for over 40-50 years now to be able to buy a flat

i could go on but i do not want to bore people. 8-) definatly i would say Spain is probaly one the top countries for real estate sur evaluation !

A for me ? Heheheheh I do like Spanish people many years ago, i live at my girlfirend parents' flat !! lol But the parents moved to another flat !!!

Melbourne Qindex 11:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The market is trying to overcome the barrier at 0.8272 // 0.8295.


Melbourne Qindex 02:16 GMT April 23, 2007
AUD/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are :- 0.8206 - 0.8235* - 0.8250 - 0.8272 // 0.8295* - 0.8324 - 0.8339 - 0.8354* - [ 0.8383] - 0.8413* - 0.8428 - 0.8443 - 0.8472* // 0.8494 ...

Mtl JP 11:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
which linkage Z ?

Budapest Z 11:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
JP, i find the linkage not very telling.

UK Alex 11:29 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 11:24 GMT// Actually, the UK government is too blame. Stealth taxes, university tutition fees and inadequate energy storage infrastructure are responsible for recent inflation.

UK Alex 11:24 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:18 GMT// No offence taken. It was just a joke I found lurking on an investment site. I have my savings invested in index-linked gilts so I'm fairly well insulated against the effects of inflation.

Mtl JP 11:24 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Of course the Gov't economists and assorted suits who never missed a meal don't see it that way:

Money supply is CPI risk but not sole factor -BoE (Reuters)

Newly re-appointed policymaker Kate Barker said energy prices were the main driver behind strong inflation.

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:18 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex //
we had here hyper inflation in 1996 - int rates went to some 360% if I rememeber correct - i was little then but it felt very nasty for older people losing their money they been saving for 20-30 years..
anyway - I read that years ago - maybe the WWI or WWII or sometimes then people went with a bag full of money to buy a bread - - so probably you betta invest in a nice Louis Vuitton travel bag - for daily travel to the bakery story around next corner.
no offence pls - I wrote it just for fun.

Mtl JP 11:16 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Interest rates 'could reach 7.5pc'

A group of Britain's leading monetarists have launched a harsh attack on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, warning that inflation risks surging out of control in repeat of earlier boom-bust cycles. LINK

--

The beautiful thing about hyper-inflation is that it causes a sudden switch of perception from "inflation = rising prices" to "hey the money we use here is worth $h!t and will be worth even less than that tomorrow, might as well get rid of it" and let someone else hold that bag.

UK Alex 11:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
If hyper inflation ever gets hold in the UK (highly unlikely but still possible) and you find yourself in a pub with a few friends always offer to buy the first round of drinks. The reason is simple - hyper inflation causes prices to rise so fast and so quickly that the second round of drinks will normally cost double the first!

Sofia Kaprikorn 11:04 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 10:47 //
hi there - sorry for the offtopic - you had in Spain strong RE investing and now the Supply is outweighting the Demand many times - is this correct?
in 2004 I went to Majorka and it was far from the idea I had - here in our country the Seaside is getting so much over-built so I think in 1-2 years the great returns in RE property will follow what was in the article just nentioned..
can you briefly comment on this RE issue, pls?

UK Alex 10:56 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
* ECB Ordonez: Spain House Prices, Household Lending Easing

UK Alex 10:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
http://www.bullandbearwise.com/SOMAChart.asp

madrid mm 10:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:50 GMT April 24, 2007

euuuuhhhhh ...... LOL
Not even in my wildest dream !! 8-)
I prefer CYBERING on this forum on FX than trying to influence people buying properties face to face !! 8-)

UK Alex 10:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
I wonder what affect those comments out of China will have on the oil price.

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:50 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:39 GMT April 24, 2007


Thanks Kaprikorn......
Wish you all the best...take care and good luck to you.

madrid mm 10:50 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Talk of correlation -
euro-usd up
usd-yen up

LOL 8-) what the heck is going on ? 8-)

Nobody wants to give in at the moment, ie carry trades, diversification, China economy growing fast and furious , etc .

Dark forces in play 8-)

UK Alex 10:50 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
mm, you're not an estate agent are you? ;-)

madrid mm 10:47 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 10:38 GMT April 24, 2007

It was fun while it lasted ! 8-)

Mtl JP 10:47 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
loon-autilus usdcad depth-tested rivets and hatch seals, below 1.1180 opens 1.109ish depth range.

UK Alex 10:42 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 10:23 GMT April 24, 2007
Is the bank front-running the data by any chance?

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
nice INFO... excuse me Bahrain.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain Bahrain1 10:28 //
nice you have there, mate - appreciate sharing it...

UK Alex 10:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
30% of Spanish estate agents will be wiped out by downturn
An article in the Spanish financial daily `Expansión' quotes ?scar Martínez - president of the Association of Property Experts (Asociación de Expertos Inmobiliarios - APEI) - as saying that some 30% of the 60,000 estate agencies estimated to exist in Spain could go out of business in the coming property market slowdown. According to Martínez, the fall in demand for property, and an expected increase in regulation by both national and regional authorities mean
that we can "expect a radical change in the Spanish estate agency business in the coming months."

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GBPUSD - 2 hour chart - anyone notice the price is consolidating into a Falling Wedge pattern?

I was just going thru many web sources to check what this pattern may suggest - cuz first I learned it as a Continuation pattern - it fits now with the idea of more GBP strength with the Hot UK inflation...

however this Wedge pattern has many different implications - - so I suggest a break of the consolidation lines will offer Clue.. anyone care for a comment?

madrid mm 10:36 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
I have got it

madrid mm 10:35 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
does that mean that all the traders in this forum will be buying houses in Spain soon ? 8-)

tapas are on me !!! lol

madrid mm 10:35 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
does that mean that all the traders in this forum will be buying houses in Spain soon ? 8-)

tapas are on me !!! lol

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:34 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GENEVA DS 10:26 GMT April 24, 2007
thanks for the info.... must be very attractive to go long Cable for NY banks just around 2 USD for 1 Pound... really scary.... lets see how high it will rise , before rumours o big ny bank selling will come out.... gl gt


Yah....unfortunately....my broker inform us after the move...they suppose to let us know when they are buying....but seems no free lunch today. lol GL

More stops on Cable now above the 20. GL.

UK Alex 10:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Spanish real estate market and banks could be in big trouble. There's a certain buzz about it in the City today.

madrid mm 10:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:14 GMT April 24, 2007

where did you get tet news plse ?

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Same bank was buying GBPYEN.

Atlanta South 10:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
$/CAD stalling somewhat now, but floor not in place just yet.
If 1185 fails then 1150 could be next. 1190 could offer some
support. Just my humble views of course. GT

GENEVA DS 10:26 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Bahrain...

thanks for the info.... must be very attractive to go long Cable for NY banks just around 2 USD for 1 Pound... really scary.... lets see how high it will rise , before rumours o big ny bank selling will come out.... gl gt

The Netherlands Purk 10:25 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Right 11211 gone now. Guess we will see a burp at 11189 for 11210 tops. Than a dive to 11144. Perfect pattern.

Syd 10:24 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Yen Firmer - Is Carry Ready to Unwind?Australian fiscal authorities are becoming uncomfortable with the high value of the Aussie. Last week Treasury Secretary Costello warned that the currency’s exchange rates were starting to hurt exporters. With Aussie having climbed to 17 year highs against the dollar last week on mounting speculation of not just one but two near term rate hikes by the RBA, any negative surprise in CPI could trigger an avalanche of profit taking in both AUDUSD and AUDJPY as momentum players bail out of the trade. All of this in turn should help the yen as the very same carry trades that hurt it in the past month begin to be unwound. Furthermore, if US equity markets recede from their record highs, the yen would only gain more strength on the move to risk aversion.

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_brief/Yen_Firmer___Is_Carry_1177320333669.html

Bahrain Bahrain1 10:23 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
A big New York bank was big buyer of cable

Gen dk 10:18 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

UK Alex 10:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--China should broaden the investment channels for its huge foreign exchange reserves by "appropriately" increasing its gold reserves and buying strategic resources such as oil and metals, People's Bank of China Vice Governor Xiang Junbo said Tuesday.

China's government should also set up a closed-end fund to raise money from domestic investors and use the proceeds to buy forex reserves from the central bank to invest abroad, Xiang in a speech at Fudan University in Shanghai.

He said his comments represent his personal views and don't necessarily reflect the stance of the central bank.

The government should also invest some of the forex reserves in low-risk bonds in overseas markets and also inject some of the reserves into state-owned banks, policy lenders and stockholding commercial banks to help their overseas expansion, he said.

The government should set up a forex investment agency to manage part of the forex reserves, Xiang said, without elaborating.

He added that interest rate hikes are only playing a limited role in controlling liquidity in the money market.

"The reserve requirement ratio hikes and issuance of central bank bills will better serve the current need to absorb liquidity," Xiang said.

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 09:50 //
hello komsho!
just chratwise - do you address the GBPJPY 15 min down sloping channel with Highs around 238 & lows around 236?

Syd 10:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Spanish Real Estate Stocks Tumble In Wide Selloff
Spanish real estate stocks tumbled Tuesday, as the meltdown of local real estate company Astroc Mediterraneo SA (AST.MC) resulted in a wide selloff on concerns about a potential crash in a red-hot sector that has backed the fastest-growing economy in the euro zone.The country's top five real estate stocks on the Spanish exchange each fell more than 10%, with the rest of the sector also sharply lower. Shares of construction and financial services companies, which are also exposed to the real estate sector, were also under intense pressure. "Last year, there was great appetite for the sector. Today, the opposite is happening," said Alejandro Uriarte, head of European equities at Spanish brokerage Banif.

Uriarte said that a slew of merger activity in the sector had pushed deal values, and stock prices, to levels never seen before.

"Stocks that used to trade at a 25% discount to net asset value have been trading at premiums of up to 50% above NAV," Uriarte said.

Recently, many of the shares of real estate companies floated in the Spanish market have ended up in the hands of retail investors, as many of them were among the best performers in the country. "There's few instititional investors, because most of these stocks have long ago stopped trading on fundamentals," Uriarte said. Banif sold its real estate holdings long before the current selloff, he added.
The selloff started last week, when shares of Astroc dropped 37% to EUR17.90 Monday and a further 43% on Wednesday, on reports that an audit showed some of Astroc's profits were generated through the sale of buildings to its own chairman, Enrique Banuelos.

Traders said that retail investors in Spain are placing sell orders of real estate companies that now are seen as extremely overvalued.

"We already had the subprime debacle in the U.S. causing nervousness in the sector. Now, after Astroc's recent slide, all the other real estate stocks are pressured, and that has spread into construction stocks, which in turn is hurting financials," said a trader with Ibersecurities brokerage.

Spain's central bank calculates that housing prices, after five years of double-digit increases, are overvalued by around 30% at a time when European interest rates are rising and Spanish household debt has swollen to 120% of disposable income, one of the highest levels in the euro zone. Three-quarters of this debt is financed at variables rates.

Bodrum OEE 09:50 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 09:48 GMT April 24, 2007
Lahore FM

addition

The channel I was talking about in my previous post was on GBP/JPY. Thanks again.

London NYAM 09:49 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy is gunning for 237.60

Bodrum OEE 09:48 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM


I thank you very much. It has been moving in a channel for the since about 19 April, undecisively. This made me want to understand your opinion. My gratitudes.

Como Perrie 09:45 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
okidoki ..I'll be back 9 am nyc time for the BOC rates decision now at 4 1/4

Lahore FM 09:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 09:38 GMT April 24, 2007
selling into 118.60/85 window is good.some early selling of jpy crosses to keep usdjpy depressed and it will try to break below 118.20 for 117.50.

Bodrum OEE 09:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Lahore FM

Good day to you. Although I am (now a known) JPY bull (here) it seems the direction short and mid term technically is far from certain. I would appreciate your comment if you kindly could. Thank you.

Como Perrie 09:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Yeap UK Alex.. guess on the next MPC meeting Blanchflower goes for turning dowish

UK Alex 09:35 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
* BOE Blanchflower: Money Supply Growth A Cause Of Concern
* Blanchflower: Money Supply Growth An Upside Risk

London NYAM 09:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Looks like CAD may have finally bottomed out after all.

Como Perrie 09:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Real ECB Rates Remain Relatively Low - ECB"s Garganas

Como Perrie 09:29 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
plus the irregular readings in Canadian inflation o.c.

Como Perrie 09:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
imo was oil-nigeria surge held strenght onto cad more than else

Bodrum OEE 09:26 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Turkey's prime minister Recep T. Erdogan confirms foreign minister Abdullah GuL to be party's candidate for president. The question over who should replace respected president Ahmet N. Sezer caused concern due to controversial secularity track record of the former. Erdogan was thought to be a candidate. However following a mass protest of 1.5 million people in Ankara, the capital and pressure from opposition parties, the prime minister seems to opt for his long term political ally instead.

Como Perrie 09:25 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
usdcad is waiting BOC. Technicals went short with stops in the range between 1.1260/90. All in all is very difficult to say this pair what to do, but given the Usd strenght gaining some back from previous week I would take lotsa care taking trades here either ways. Scalping ofcourse excluded

hk ab 09:22 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
oilman, I know you were bullish on yen crosses carry, however, I do now see some divergence of all pairs especially e/j and a/j..... a sharp reversal looks like in progress.

Auckland peat 09:21 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Havent looked at it before so grains of salt and all that, but MXN on the daily looks like its compressing so it would need to indicate its direction with a breakout. The Ichimoku is indicating bearishness with the cloud above it at 11.10 acting as resistance. Would need to convincingly break that level to become bullish again.
Whereas gold is above its cloud that spreads from that 650-80 range. all imo of course.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:21 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 08:55 GMT //
tnx for mentioning the ATR - I remembered after I saw your post that I have read smtg on ATR - will have to reconsider it.. anyway too much indicators is no good either... TG!

The Netherlands Purk 09:20 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Loonie: Well until now pattern is still on and getting stronger. If 11230 can not be reached anymore than we will see 11170-80 very soon. Than it comes to the point that it is better to short during the day, take the pips AND also try to get the longs that have a perfect outcome (like an egg) in the clogmorning.
On the other hand there is preference… what do you want, but what does market do. Currently I am not doing what the market wants, so do I be stubborn and long till I drop, or do I long in the evening take my pips and don’t bother big movements? I have the feeling that many people lose with loonie because they don’t follow pattern…. I am long as from 11221. Pattern said get out at 11240, nice piptets. But what do I do: I go for the 11294. So is this a plan or suicide… We will see when loonie takes its course.
For now it is even possible to see 11144 if NN decides not to long just under 11190…. But whatever happens market does what it does…..

UK Alex 09:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GM's Lutz says mortgage 'meltdown' hits auto sales

Bodrum OEE 09:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 10:46 GMT April 20, 2007
Bodrum OEE 03:49 GMT April 20, 2007
AZUSA 4x-ed 02:34 GMT April 20, 2007

Thank you for comments. I will try to respond to them later. I wish all a good week.

UK Alex 09:10 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Toyota surpasses General Motors in global sales

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 09:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Actually - my worst is the one where the guy asks the question 'How much money are you making? That's what traders ask themselves . . .'. It makes me feel guilty!

Dale.

UK Alex 09:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Subprime Bondholders May Lose $75 Billion in U.S. Housing Slump

madrid mm 09:05 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:55 GMT April 24, 2007
arent they all ? LOL 8-)

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 09:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
To Auckland peat: don't even mention the '50s (ever seen that ad on Bloomberg when there is a loud scream from somewhere in the office while they display a counter with pounds running backwards)???

Dale.

hk ab 08:59 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
place a small limit to sell gbp 2.0

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:59 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
To Lahore FM (again): Thanks again for that - I agree with you - it is just that patience is not one of my strong points!

Dale.

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:57 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
To Lahore FM: thanks for that.

Dale.

Auckland peat 08:55 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
so at 690 isnt gold pretty close to its 2007 high of 2 days ago? looks like it has a few more legs short term , and certainly good support in the 680's or the 50's at worst. my thought fwiw.
tho elliotwave site tho was mentioning toppishness, like so many other pairs I suppose, which has all come about as a consequence of low volatility expectations huh.

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:55 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
While I'm sitting here (s)melting gold bars I have a question for everyone: does / has anybody had a look at the USD/MXN? Have you seen how that pair trades - regular as clockwork - up and down - up and down - huge spread - but big profit potential both ways - can also be hedged in the middle of range to catch it both ways.

Any thoughts?

Dale.

Lahore FM 08:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
DBP,i was about to reply to your yesterday's gold post when something came up.anyways for now 687/88 seem like neat support for further upside.the downside was tested and proved resilient.692 is on the next test.

Gen dk 08:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Thanks - I found it - and if it's any consolation - by the looks of things on that forum - at least I'm not the only one sitting with bullion up my ****!

Dale.

Syd 08:25 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
CENTRAL BANK WATCH: RBA Sidelined Until Mid-2008 At Least
Hawkish Australian rate expectations have all but dissipated following surprisingly benign first quarter inflation news Tuesday, with economists forecasting interest rates will remain unchanged at least until mid-2008.

Inflation rose 0.1% in the first quarter, well short of a forecast rise of 0.6%, lowering year-on-year inflation to 2.4% from 3.3%, its slowest pace of increase in two years, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.
The Australian dollar lost almost a full U.S. cent after the data. At 0700 GMT, the Australian dollar was trading at US$0.8236.

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:18 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
No problem - I'll DHL it! I went against my grain and listened to some so called 'analysts' and went ape on Gold on Friday which was supposed to be at $700 by now - need I say more!!!

Dale.

madrid mm 08:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:14 GMT April 24, 2007
patience is a virtue they say and if the Gold options work out for you, the champagne is on you !!! 8-)

Melbourne Qindex 08:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg, ZA DBP 07:53 GMT - Future Forum


http://www.global-view.com/login.html?r=%2Fforums%2Fforum.html%3Ff%3D2

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Thanks again. Will do. I just want to close then positions and get back here.

Dale.

Alaska Moon 08:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:08 GMT April 24, 2007
====
OK... You need to go direct to global-view.com and register..
It is a free forum...

hk ab 08:10 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
dlrchf stop now placed at 1.2095 remain 5 pips for bus fare.
let's see how deep this can go with the dlr/jpy.

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 08:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Thanks for the input BUT at the risk of appearing incredibly stupid - I have nothing on the left hand side of this page - this page is being displayed almost as if it were full screen. There are no options or sliders or anything on either side of this page. Sorry to interrupt you all with this.

Dale.

Syd 08:06 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
EUR/USD Offered Tone Intact Below 1.3620-RBoS
EUR/USD's intraday offered tone will persist while resistance at 1.3585, maximum 1.3620 remains intact, says Royal Bank of Scotland. Now trades at 1.3570. The bank says the rate is vulnerable toward 1.3525 and 1.3450 with intermediate support coming in at 1.3545. For a trading strategy the bank suggets selling at 1.3585 with a stop at 1.3625, taking profit around 1.3465.

Alaska Moon 08:03 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg, ZA DBP 07:53 GMT April 24, 2007
=======
You should be able to scroll down on the left side of this page and click on futures forum...
Alaska Moon

Baltimore Zoltan 08:03 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg, ZA DBP 07:53 GMT April 24, 2007 :

Click on "Futures Forum" on the left side of this page.

Napoli DC 08:02 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg, ZA DBP

here on the left

Johannesburg, ZA DBP 07:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
To madrid mm:

Thanks for that. Where would I find such a forum? I do not see it on my brokers site (my broker being the sponsor of this forum). I do trade forex but I just happen to be sitting with some Gold options at the moment (for some ridiculous reason).

Dale.

Gen dk 07:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 07:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Como Perrie 07:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Sterling has had some flows due to mergings and acquisitions flowing bullish the usd. Some similar hidden games might be present due Barclays bidding the dutch ABN - It looks the third global bank by volumes has been established.

rag bar 07:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
la acfxtrader 07:21 GMT

If you are such a good trader...please give here some live calls and we all will be impressed ....

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Spotforex NY 07:29 GMT April 24, 2007 || Notice how these characters always lurk around data release time?

Syd 07:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Japan Bankers Head: Chance BOJ May Hike Rates 25 Bps 2H
The newly appointed head of the Japanese Bankers Association said Tuesday there is a chance the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates in the second half of this year.

madrid mm 07:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Johannesburg, ZA DBP 07:15 GMT April 24, 2007

Future Forum should be more useful 4 u

Spotforex NY 07:29 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
la acfxtrader 07:21 GMT

If you are such a 'wonder boy' trader...why do you need other people's funds.

Sounds very suspicious and i would avoid these types of posts at all costs.

AZUSA 4x-ed 07:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
la acfxtrader 07:21 GMT April 24, 2007 || why settle for a small account when you should be working for B. Kovner or G. Soros?

la acfxtrader 07:21 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
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My fee is 30% of all profits I make for your account at the end of each trading month. You have the luxury of trying out my ability with a demo account, just to show you how proficient I am. A trial will definitely convince you. kindly contact me on this email address

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Johannesburg, ZA DBP 07:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Hello, - I'm here.

Anybody got any thoughts on Gold for today? Direction?

Dale.

pa-usa bjk 07:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
if cable 53 goes, daily low thus far, next stop 35, followed by strong support at 25.

hk ab 07:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
why so quiet again.....

hk ab 06:49 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
my limit is missed by 3 pips again.....

now only holding the previous shorts.

hk ab 06:44 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
exhaustion for dlr/cad comes very soon....zeus will join your camp soon...

Syd 06:40 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
dj...Australian Rate Hike Off Agenda As Inflation Eases

Economists said an official interest rate increase is now almost certainly off the agenda this year with a high Australian dollar set to depress import prices.

"The interest rate debate has been forestalled for the rest of the year," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.

While the Australian government nominates membership of the RBA board, it allows the central bank to set rates independent of Canberra under an inflation targeting agreement struck with Treasurer Costello in 1996.

Official interest rates now appear locked at 6.25% for the foreseeable future just as the Liberal-National coalition government readies itself to face a closely contested federal election expected before the end of 2007.

Interest rates have been hiked four times since the 2004 election, undermining the federal government's campaign promise to keep them at record lows.

Voter sentiment has shifted sharply away from the government since the elevation of popular new Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd to the leadership of the Australian Labor Party in late 2006.

Polls since then have consistently predicted a landslide Labor victory at the next election, with the coalition unable to close the voter gap.

Craig James, chief equities economist at Commonwealth Securities said if the last two quarters of inflation data are taken together, inflation is at its lowest level in 9 years.

"The benign nature of price pressures, together with the strong Australian dollar and the relatively high level of current cash rates all point to the RBA remaining firmly on the interest rate sidelines," James said.

The RBA is expected to confirm it is has interest rates on hold for the foreseeable future in a quarterly policy statement to be published May 4.

The Netherlands Purk 06:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
In the meantime when one looks with an open mind to the loonie there, there is no pattern change. Higher high than yesterday, that is it, slight lower low than yesterday. If pattern goes the same way than 11187 will be some kind of a low. If 11247 is beaten again the 11294 is in sight. Guess that a lot of people shorted at the looks of that 11247, they where right at the moment. Slow day of yesterday is gone and loondert is trying to look for a bottom. Let us see. If 11211 is violated we know more...

pa-usa bjk 06:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
65 entry, on to 50.

The Netherlands Purk 06:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 06:01 GMT April 24, 2007

Well Randy, watch out for that hat of JR. now, he says it is darn dangerous out there...

pa-usa bjk 06:27 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
cable almost in at 65, bouncing off of the support level. presently, support 65, resist 85 and bias favors the 85. we shall see.

madrid mm 06:16 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
fwiw
The Golden Week is a collection of four national holidays within seven days. In combination with well placed weekends, the Golden Week becomes one of Japan's three busiest holiday seasons, besides New Year and the Obon week.

Trains, airports and sightseeing spots get very crowded during Golden Week, and accommodation in tourist areas can get booked out well in advance.

The national holidays making up the Golden Week are:
April 29
Showa Day (Showa no hi):
April 29 is the birthday of former Emperor Showa, who died in the year 1989. Until 2006, Greenery Day (see May 4) used to be celebrated on this day.

May 3
Constitution Day (Kenpo kinenbi):
On this day in 1947, the new post war constitution was put into effect.

May 4
Greenery Day (Midori no hi):
Until 2006, Greenery Day used to be celebrated on April 29, the birthday of former Emperor Showa. The day is dedicated to the environment and nature, because the emperor loved plants and nature. Before being declared Greenery Day, May 4 used to be a national holiday due to a law, which declares a day, that falls between two national holidays, a national holiday.

May 5
Children's Day (Kodomo no hi):
The Boy's Festival (Tango no Sekku) is celebrated on this day. Families pray for the health and future success of their sons by hanging up carp streamers and displaying samurai dolls, both symbolizing strength, power and success in life. The Girl's Festival, by the way, is celebrated on March 3.

madrid mm 06:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Australia Q1 CPI came in +0.1%q/q, +2.4%y/y much lower than mkt exp of +0.6%q/q, +3.0%y/y.

RBA Q1 weighed median CPI came in at +0.5%q/q, vs expected +0.6%q/q, and +2.7%y/y, vs +2.8%y/y expected. RBA Trimmed mean CPI came in +0.5%q/q, and +2.7%y/y.

Australia Treasurer Peter Costello says high AUD makes it tough for Australian exporters. High world oil prices and drought create uncertainty on inflation outlook. Expects CPI to grow at moderate rate in period ahead.

MoF Koji Omi says S+P upgrade of Japan reflects solid economic fundamentals and fisical construction efforst. Will strive to achieve both economic development and fiscal reconstruction.

MoF Naoyuki Shinohara says Japan needs to maintain "sufficient" FX reserve to prepare for shifts of large amounts of capital in the financial markets. - BBG.

FT letter by Prof Tim Congdon and other experts : "We believe that money supply growth is too high and that the BoE has underestimated the likelihood of continued above-target inflation in 2008. Unless the annual growth rates of money and credit fall to appreciably lower levels, there is a high risk of above-target inflation in 2008 and even in 2009."

DP World gave warning yesterday that the strong pound was set to trigger a shipping crisis in the UK “within months” that would lead to congestion for carriers seeking to import goods, The Times has learnt.

Sunday Times: Al-Qaeda leaders in Iraq are planning the first "large-scale" terrorist attacks on Britain and other western targets with the help of supporters in Iran, according to a leaked intelligence report.

Asia FX (cont)Choppy trading again as Cross/JPY came under selling pressure at the start of Asian Tuesday session, with talk of US money center bank, investment and securities houses selling EUR/JPY from NY highs of 161.10 to 160.70, putting selling pressure on USD/JPY, EUR/USD.

Talks of more selling from Japanese mega-city banks, Tokyo banks as well, talks some of the sales are linked to the much talked about huge French eurozone bonds coupons and redemption value tomorrow.

Further waves of AUD/JPY, short JPY carry trades "trimming" after Australia Q1 CPI again surprised on the downside, coming in at only +0.1%, seen confirming no RBA hike next week on May 1. AUD dived to 0.8282, then to 0.8240 from pre CPI level of 0.8323. AUD/JPY down to 97.50 fm 98.50, AUD/NZD to 1.1135 fm 1.1190-95, AUD/SGD down to 1.25 lows fromm 1.26, with USD/JPY also weighed by huge JPY/SGD buying from US houses, funds..

Mkt cautious of more AUD/JPY, Short/JPY carry trade unwinding b4 Japan Golden Week next week.

AUD/USD seen vulnerable to further waves of selling after the weak Q1 CPI, as Australia and NZ will be closed tomorrow on ANZAC Day and liquidity will suffer. Could see more AUD/USD, AUD/JPY sales, much like on Jan 24, when Aust Q4 CPI surprised at -0.1%, triggering AUD/JPY, short JPY carry trades unwind. AUD/USD stops 0.82.

GBP hit lows of 1.9955 on US houses sales, GBP/JPY, with some focus on Sunday Times' article of Al Qaeda terrorist threats. Talks of 1.9950 options. EUR/USD down on EUR/JPY, talks China bids 1.3540.

Nikkei -0.10% or 17.23pts at 17,438.14. JGBs higher on back of lower Nikkei, 10-yr yield -0.010% at 1.670%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.25/118.66, EUR/USD 1.3549/1.3684, GBP/USD 1.9955/2.0013, USD/CHF 1.2087/1.2098, AUD/USD 0.8240/0.8340, NZD/USD 0.7392/0.7465.

pa-usa bjk 06:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
of course cable 65 should produce 50, intraday. worth watching! almost had the 65.

Helsinki iw 06:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
We may even see one of Gecko's olympic sized cable dives. By now however from the top rung, no less.imho.

ABHA FXS 06:09 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/JPY...
========
BEST LONG FOR 2 POSTION
235.17
235.54
========
BEST SHORT FOR 2 POSTION
238.09
237.72
========
NICE TRADE..

Aus Stu 06:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 06:04 GMT April 24, 2007

Please close the door when you leave mate

Perth Randall El 06:04 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
I warned you.
Understand- bibi.

Perth Randall El 06:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 16:22 GMT April 18, 2007
CT Cris 16:15 GMT April 18, 2007
=====
gbp.usd is in uptrend for midterm trading...it may reach 20200,
within the coming days , it is preferable to buy after each dip.


Caution! This could mean Sell then sell some more as an A,B,C,X explanation later- either way flip a coin and watch him dance later as usd.jpy 120 is coming- exactly as he said and it turned out to really be a sell signal instead!!!
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

You can now see how it is. I now need to get out of usd.jpy after buy then buy lower and lower and lower and... The 120 promise shares same fate as signal for gbp.usd 2.02 buying then buying lower on dips then now selling..........

pa-usa bjk 05:56 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
cable at 85 should get us to 2.00, something suggests to me that 2.00 will be strong support into june. something to keep in mind but not trade on unless your STUFF? suggests it. anybody else have this feeling?

Helsinki iw 05:54 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
While euro strength towards the previous high of 1.3660/80 can still be seen, such strength should offer a good chance to short EUR/USD as it seems this pair is losing momentum against this resistance level. An unexpected break would target 1.45/46 at least. IMHO

madrid mm 05:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's dollar dropped, the biggest fluctuation of any currency today, after a government report showed inflation was slower than expected, reducing the chance of an interest-rate increase.

The local dollar fell the most in seven weeks and government bonds rose as traders cut bets the Reserve Bank of Australia would raise borrowing costs at its next meeting in May. The currency last week reached the strongest in 17 years, helped by speculation the central bank would raise its benchmark rate from a six-year high of 6.25 percent.

``This puts a dint in the short-term strength of the Australian dollar,'' said Tobias Davis, senior currency dealer at Custom House Global Foreign Exchange in Sydney. ``With consumer prices like that, we will see the RBA hold in May.''

madrid mm 05:50 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
censored was for hello --- 8-) maybe my keyboard did not enter the "o"

The Netherlands Purk 05:46 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Who was it again that said that OZMOND was a sell on blips. It dropped a good point there...
Nice moves on cable there for a VODKA profit i guess, dont forget to take it. Loonie still in pattern mode but stalling. 11294 is the goal. After that buy on dippyes...

madrid mm 05:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
censored oFX Jedi

Again i seem to miss all the action ...if it is not the Yen , it is the Asussie !!! Why , ohh why ?
8-)

Syd 05:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Al-Qaeda ‘planning big British attack’
AL-QAEDA leaders in Iraq are planning the first “large-scale” terrorist attacks on Britain and other western targets with the help of supporters in Iran, according to a leaked intelligence report.

Spy chiefs warn that one operative had said he was planning an attack on “a par with Hiroshima and Nagasaki” in an attempt to “shake the Roman throne”, a reference to the West.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1687360.ece

Syd 04:57 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Carry Trade Crosses Vulnerable But Holding Support

Key carry trade crosses AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY lower as weak Australia 1Q CPI prompts profit-taking; crosses holding above key supports provided by lows hit Thursday, but analysts, traders warn of further unwinding of positions ahead of key Japan data Friday including CPI, industrial output, BOJ policy decision and economic outlook report. Above-forecast data or upgraded forecasts from BOJ could signal potential BOJ tightening, would add weight to unwind trades; rise in risk aversion would be another trigger for trades to be closed, but crosses have recovered from Thursday's sell-off prompted by concern strong China growth may force tightening and lift in risk aversion.

Sydney ACC 04:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Strong pound will produce shipping crisis ‘in months’

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article1695593.ece

AZUSA 4x-ed 03:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
CADosaurus hunts are known to be messy... Harpooned specimen from Purkmania

Mumbai NS 03:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Lot of interesting things happening euro cbl closing lower third day in a row yen crosses struggling aud starting to look really tired .So do we have something in the offing not so sure on cbl but others are tired indeed gl gt

AZUSA 4x-ed 03:21 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 03:17 GMT April 24, 2007 || Thank you for pointing it out!

Halifax CB 03:17 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Ahh well, no longer even profitable, so without a basis, it's off fo now. Better brush up on my drawint skills :) Thx for catching the error AZ-USA....

Lahore FM 03:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
usdcad 1.1234 now,expect cad to be the next natural contender for weakness among commodity pairs.BOC might be of no help at all where sentiment comes in.it is just starting out.

moscow mike 03:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 10:16 GMT April 19, 2007
Carefuly shorted cable at 2.0033 few minutes ago with 50 pip stop.
------------------
Finally we see some meaningful moves so i am move my stop to 20010. Cable becomes Candy.

AZUSA 4x-ed 03:12 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Z, sorry for the long $CAD... JP made a higher offer on that reverse mojo!

NYC beyond_destiny 02:48 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
closed 2 eurcad long 1.5220/1.5228 @ 1.5238 ...limit sell on 1.5185

Halifax CB 02:43 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 02:10 GMT April 24, 2007
You're close than I was; Ah well, still profitable....

Lahore FM 02:40 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
closed part of 119.02 short usdjpy at 118.27.

Mtl JP 02:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Zeus 02:20 / BoC has been consistently under-estimating and surprised by (price)inflation numbers. And to think they don't have one economist on staff not taking home $ix figure$, lol.

hk ooozmeeh 02:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GBP/USD a descending triangle was just broken on the hourly chart, FWIW

Dallas GEP 02:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Stop on KIWI long is 7367

LKWD JJ 02:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
kaprikorn on 1hr chart cad showing good strength.

USA Zeus 02:20 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Crude rises big to almost $66 and the Loonert stalls after doing nothing for days. CAD bulls growing more nervous with every tick as the BoC likely does nothing as everyone already knows.

Dallas GEP 02:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Now long KIWI at 7402 bid

dc CB 02:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Loonie continues to soar
Bank of Canada expected to ignore inflation pressures, keep interest rates steady
Eric Beauchesne, CanWest News Service
Published: Monday, April 23, 2007

OTTAWA — With the Canadian dollar trading at a near half-year high of more than US$0.89, the Bank of Canada is widely expected to ignore a buildup in inflation pressures, especially in Western Canada, and keep interest rates steady today.

The loonie, which has soared more than five per cent against the U.S. dollar since February, continued to edge higher Monday, closing at 89.08 cents US, up from 89.05 cents US Friday.
And some analysts expect it will go higher.

The currency, which has been bolstered by high commodity prices and a strong economy, and which has been rising on the back of a sliding U.S. dollar, will rise above 90 cents US this spring, CIBC World Markets is forecasting.


However, not all of the Canadian dollar’s run is attributable to high resource prices or the general trend against the U.S. dollar, CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld said in advance of the Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

It is also a reflection of a change in the mood in money markets, which have gone from pricing in Canadian interest rate cuts later this year to pricing in the possibility of a future rate hike later this year, Shenfeld noted.

That change in mood follows evidence that the economy is strengthening and that inflation is rising.
Carl Weinberg, economist and head of U.S.-based High Frequency Economics, said it now appears the inflation rate, which at 2.3 per cent is already above the central bank’s two per cent target, will rise above its three per cent ceiling this year.

However, he and other analysts were not expecting any rate increase today, although there was speculation the central bank may hint, in its statement accompanying its interest rate announcement, at the possibility of a future rate hike to contain inflation pressures.

The central bank, and governor David Dodge, will provide a broader explanation of its views on inflation Thursday when it releases its Monetary Policy Review.

But the central bank is "hamstrung" by the growing economic divide in Canada, Weinberg said.

"Clearly inflationary conditions in the western provinces — notably Alberta, but also British Columbia, are being offset by disinflation and economic hardship in the eastern provinces," Weinberg said. "The Bank of Canada cannot raise rates to address inflation out west without slamming already hard hit provincial economies back east."

Meanwhile, the strong loonie is adding to the economic woes of manufacturers, adding to the competitiveness of imports while making their exports less competitive.

"The loonie's strength is killing manufacturing," Weinberg said.


© CanWest News Service 2007

AZUSA 4x-ed 02:10 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
lol... will see if I can get a patent on it first. fwiw EY support line from March comes in at 160.05 on my system.

Melbourne Qindex 02:08 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The following is still valid :-


Melbourne Qindex 03:38 GMT April 17, 2007
AUD/USD (Updated) : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is trying to tackle the monthly cycle normal upper limit at 0.8377, if it fails to hold the next target is the extreme level at 0.8560. On the other hand speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through 0.8316.

Halifax CB 02:06 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
eurjpy may be looking interesting - the bottom support goes back to around 1 march,

Chart

Syd 02:06 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Aussie Money Mkt Prices Slim Rate Hike Risk
Australia money market now pricing very little chance of 25bp rate hike at May 1 RBA board meeting, and reducing likelihood of rate move in next 12 months from 100% to just above 50%; Credit Suisse Implied Monetary Policy Index shows market pricing 5% chance of 25bp rate in May after weak 1Q headline and underlying CPI, down sharply from 44% risk pre-data. Rise in underlying CPI slows to 2.7% in 1Q, well within RBA's 2%-3% target range

Syd 02:05 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Australia's Costello: Inflation Data Is Good News
Costello: Very Low Rise In 1Q CPI

Mtl JP 02:03 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
4x-ed 01:56 / NY dlrcad range: 1.1217 - 1.1244, fwiw

USA Zeus 02:02 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 01:56 GMT April 24, 2007
Professor- Sorry to hear about your e/j trade.
Get set for a USD/CAD party.

Atlanta South 02:00 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB
Tks & will do.

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:56 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 01:36 GMT April 24, 2007 || Perhaps I should short $CAD so I can give it my reverse mojo Dr. Z!

Dallas GEP 01:53 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Closing my NZD shorts from 7480 right HERE.

Syd 01:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Australia RBA 1Q Trimmed Mean Inflation +2.7% On Yr

Auckland peat 01:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
thx gep its going well.
av price 1.1224
target 1.10 tho so some way to go before I close it.

Dallas GEP 01:48 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Nice trade PEAT.

Dallas GEP 01:47 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
It is now JAY...THX

Syd 01:45 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AUD/JPY Down On Weak Aussie CPI; May Fall More
AUD/JPY drops briefly to session low of 97.88 on much weaker-than-expected Australian 1Q CPI data;
may fall further, possibly another 50 sen, says trader at major European bank. "With the recent upward trend of the Australian
dollar, there are possibly many stops piling up that may pull the currency down significantly down." USD/JPY, EUR/JPY
show no major reaction "but this result is likely to put much downward pressure on the crosses." AUD/JPY last at
97.96,

Auckland peat 01:44 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
good stuff !
but i think the cross is a better trade at the mo coz its interest rate +ve. kiwi will prolly find support at some stage. 74 at worst?? imo of course.
good trades.

Dallas GEP 01:42 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Jay, usd/cad rate is not updating on TICKER

USA Zeus 01:42 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Pulled up a dynaamic 5dma- the indicator that says it all. Right at 1.1250. Sell short there and get crushed IMO.

Syd 01:41 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Aussie 1Q CPI Below Expectations; AUD/USD Falls

Australian 1Q CPI surprisingly weak, up 0.1% on quarter vs +0.6% expected, up 2.4% on year vs +3.0% expected. Data diminish rate hike expectations ahead of May 1 RBA meeting. Australian dollar tumbles, with AUD/USD hitting 0.8281 from 0.8325 pre-CPI data, Australian bonds rally with 3-year futures hitting 93.895 from 93.805 pre-data. May 30 day Interbank cash future reaches 93.725 from pre-data 93.635, though June 30-day interbank future steady at 93.605 as market still contemplates a deferred rate hike.

Dallas GEP 01:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Actually PEAT i still have KIWI short so that went dowm as well

Syd 01:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
BOJ's next rate hike may come in August if Japan indicators stronger than expected, says Bank
of America economist Tomoko Fuji;. "although we still predict the next rate hike to be in September, there is also the
possibility of an August hike if CPI and GDP data support this." Adds, CPI will definitely need to be in positive territory
with 2Q GDP at least above 1.5% growth, with a rise to about 2.5% ideal.

AZUSA 4x-ed 01:36 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
EURYEN stopped and stomped out...

USA Zeus 01:36 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 23:57 GMT April 23, 2007
Thx Professor. Best wishes to your trade.

Auckland peat 01:34 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
oh too late GEP - it just dropped 50 pips!!

Sydney ACC 01:33 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
There's the flow through from the higher Aussie, importers and import competing industries cutting prices.
Last quarter Aussie dropped 150 pips on the back of a benign CPI.

USA Zeus 01:32 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Ok- USD/CAD doing that thing...easy does it.

USA Zeus 01:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 00:16 GMT April 24, 2007

CB- No offense taken...not even close. To me they are just ticker symbols. LOL
GT! :-)

Syd 01:31 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Australian 1Q CPI +2.4% On Yr Vs +3.0% Consensus

Syd 01:30 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Australian 1Q CPI +0.1% On Qtr Vs +0.6% Consensus

Melbourne Qindex 01:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Melbourne Qindex 02:35 GMT April 22, 2007
GBP/USD : My weekly cycle charts indicate that the market is going to consolidate further between 1.9967 - 2.0153 during early period of next week.


Melbourne Qindex 00:29 GMT April 20, 2007
GBP/USD (Monthly Cycle) : The upper limit of the monthly cycle normal trading range is defined at 2.0086. As shown in the projected series a resistant level is located at 2.0257 - 2.0278 and projected supporting points are expected at 1.9843 and 1.9988.

Syd 01:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 01:13 GMT no dont trade it to iffy

Auckland peat 01:15 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
GEP
just short the tasman cross then.... specially now its rallied a bit...

Auckland peat 01:13 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
are you short kiwi by any chance SYD?? at least it rains here sometimes.

kaprikorn re volatility indicator - perhaps ATR ?

Halifax CB 01:01 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 00:48 GMT April 24, 2007
Not a problem, you can get my e-mail from Jay.

Syd 01:00 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 00:54 once Japan start raising rates the Yen will fly, this will be chalked up as another reason to buy it, just see what would happen to the Kiwi if they Lower ratings there which is on the cards

Syd 00:57 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP , Your right , its stupid the whole situation I just stay clear feel its too risky until something happens and risk raises its ugly head again, and it will


Interest rates 'could reach 7.5pc'
A group of Britain's leading monetarists have launched a harsh attack on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, warning that inflation risks surging out of control in repeat of earlier boom-bust cycles.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/24/cninflation24.xml

AZUSA 4x-ed 00:54 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Syd, fwiw: "Bloomberg says the yen rose on the S&P Ratings Agency lifting Japan’s rating for the first time since 1975, citing banking system reform, fiscal efforts and good growth.
We find that the FX market is usually unmoved by ratings agency actions and don’t buy the “reason” for the yen to have improved, however briefly. The yen failed to fall when the ratings agencies were busy lowering Japan’s ratings on the high debt-to-GDP ratio a few years ago (to the same level as Botswana, which has no taxing ability to speak of and certainly nothing compared to Japan)."

Melbourne Qindex 00:52 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : It will get the support from the price of Crude Oil when it is heading towards 69.28.


Melbourne Qindex 00:44 GMT April 24, 2007
Crude Oil (Monthly Cycle) : The pattern of my monthly cycle charts suggest that the market has a tendency to trade between 62.02 - 69.28. The unusual high probability values associated with 69.28 indicates that the market has potential to tackle this level later this month. The upper barrier of the projected series is located at 69.28 // 70.64.

hk ab 00:51 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
omg... dlr/cad retreats again?....dlrchf will follow dlr/jpy to exhibit the olympic dive soon.

Dallas GEP 00:49 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Well that's my point SYD. KIWI has been longing against technicals for about 4 weeks now an there is no good reason for it. I am short from 7480 now but it shows no sign of breaking down thru support at all. In fact AUD/NZD shorts as usual have been supporting it LONG. I don't get it

Atlanta South 00:48 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Halifx CB
Ref 00:14.... You are so correct yes putting together ones
own method is the best. No matter what the method consist of the trader has to have a clear understanding of its use &
the signals given. I would like to swap method ideas by email if you have the time. Tks & gt.

Syd 00:44 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:37 and the Japanese investors will be keeping an eye on the reports from the OECD not to mention the S&P upgrade to Japan

Syd 00:42 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Dallas GEP 00:37 Hi, I dont think I have , its just the feeling that someone is missing the point , with an economy the size of an egg cup and the Deficit larger than the USA, how can the currency be one of the strongest in the world , its speculative buying thats going to come unstuck

hk ab 00:39 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
today dlr/cad 5 dma order should be hit.... I put it 1 pip higher at 1.1250.....short.

LKWD JJ 00:38 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
$cad ready for night flight.

AZUSA 4x-ed 00:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
CSPI m/m Actual= 0.6% Forecast= 0.5% Previous= 0.2%

Dallas GEP 00:37 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
SYD, you seem to have a better handle on this KIWI. What do you think short term on it and OZ????

dc CB 00:34 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Don't have the data. Actually was trying to ask for it...guess I should be more direct.

What was the JP data?

TIA

RIC fxq 00:28 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Man and I thought it was the (C)(o)lombian (P)eso!

LoL

AZUSA 4x-ed 00:24 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:02 GMT April 24, 2007 || Not sure what to make of this 3rd tier data. What's your take, if you don't mind me asking. TIA

hk ab 00:20 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
oilman, are you still around? do you see current m/t usd bearish sentiment have a small leg to go?

Halifax CB 00:16 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
dc CB 00:07 GMT April 24, 2007
Whoops, right chart, I had something else stuck in my head when I typed that....Apologies to all & Zeus in particular....

Halifax CB 00:14 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Atlanta South 23:53 GMT April 23, 2007
Works well once you understand all the nuances it has.

I think that's true of all of them; one of the reasons I like putting them together myself is that one learns those nuances before they cost you big time :)

dc CB 00:07 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
Halifax CB 23:36 GMT April 23, 2007
BTW, thanks for the ref. COP; I don't follow ETF's much

CB, don't know what chart you are looking at, but COP is Conocophillips, a stock...integrated oil company.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cop

dc CB 00:02 GMT April 24, 2007 Reply   
So looking at the Yen reaction, the JP data at 23:50 was as suprise to the upside?