Forex Forum Archive for 04/25/2007

USA BAY 23:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA ZEUS,

Just do what you think is best for you, and no need to justify your trades. At the end of the what matters is you and your wallet are happy. Gt/GL

USA BAY 23:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
BALTIMORE ZOLTAN,

I use the no dealing desk so spread varies.

USA Zeus 23:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 23:44 GMT April 25, 2007
JC- Thx. Agree. Just another trade like any other win or lose. As for now it seems the probabilities of this trade working have increased. The future looks bright. GT to you :-)
cheers

dc CB 23:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The interesting thing about the recent CD move is it points to the human side of trading, the need to predict, the need to see a repetition of past patterns, the reluctance to accept change and act accordingly.

I recently posted that my problem with my CD trade was having to daily recalculate a trailing stop. This was once the way one traded currencies...because they were very trendy...hop on board and protect your a##. The recent past had taught some that currencies were not trendy at all, but rangebound. This change in character of the market chews to bits traders who just want to set a trailing stop and then fight the boredom as the profits add up. But it gives delight to those who crave action and live for the profit that reinforces their "being right" by picking entries and targets..

The trick is to recognize when to change approaches.

Recent postings have shown that this is one of the most difficult and costly aspects of the tradiing game.

FWIW. was trailing stopped out yesterday before the rate announcement and as a result missed today's spectacular...and one could say predictable Oil Day run up in the CD. Lesson: stops too tight.

Syd 23:45 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
NZD/JPY May Drop To 87.80, But To Rebound Soon


2338 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/JPY may fall to 87.80 on selling by Asian fund players to lock in profits as RBNZ didn't make forward-looking comments after raising rate to 7.75%, says Tokyo trader; "it appears that players, who overly built up New Zealand dollar-long positions against the yen, are now selling, regarding RBNZ's decision as a cue." But pair may rebound to 88.50, then 88.60 on buying by Japan institutional investors for foreign bond investment, still looking to high yields in NZ.

hk ab 23:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
dlrcad..............maybe we should respect this 5 dma, not until it is closed above the line, don't attempt too aggressive long positions.

fairfield JC 23:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 23:38 GMT April 25, 2007

Are ppl giving you a hard time? Cause if they are screw them. Whether it is a winning trade or not, at least you are and were honest about it, and had the balls to post what you were doing. Amen to that.

Auckland peat 23:40 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
RBNZ has never ruled out intervention, (but have never if ever used it to my knowledge)
There is a document from 2005 outlining their policy towards it as a tool.
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/research/bulletin/2002_2006/2005mar68_1eckholdhunt.pdf
Note that they intend overt (signalled) intervention.

USA Zeus 23:38 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
This is what I like about the madness of crowds. The emotion increases on capitulation as everyone made $ off of a CAD trade while few posted any entries.

Am in heavy on the allocation as a % that I have committed to the position. However, will lighten on a blip.

I am now the marked target for spoofs and "I told you so"'s as if my honest real time postings of trades, game plans allocations etc made me the sworn enemy.

This comes as no surprise in an allocation trade. Everyone is usually right at the exact wrong time. Sense that about this crowd. Shelter with numbers for some.

Baltimore Zoltan 23:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY 23:26 GMT April 25, 2007:

It's 5 pips on mine, as always

Global-View Research 23:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
EURUSD Flirts with All Time High: What Next?

USA BAY 23:26 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
My platform also has 10 pip spread for kiwi. hmm

Syd 23:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Two-thirds of Muslims consider leaving UK
http://www.guardian.co.uk/attackonlondon/story/0,16132,1536222,00.html

Syd 23:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Apparently RBNZ put in some regulation they can intervene in NZD , Benjamin Pedley, a Singapore- based investment strategist LGT Bank on CNBC saying that above 75 can see intervention

UK Alex 23:17 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
BBC: Migrants 'deceived and exploited'

NYC beyond_destiny 23:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
long aur/nzd 1.1215 t/p open ... any suggestion? (first time to trade this pair)

It seems some type of unusual movement of kiwi

UK Alex 23:10 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:59 GMT April 25, 2007
Couldn't agree more about the banks. Moved my savings back into a building society account recently and I'm not regretting it for one moment. No shareholders to appease. Just had to sign an anti-carpetbagging agreement and they were very happy to accept me as a new customer.

fairfield JC 23:10 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 23:06 GMT April 25, 2007

Thanks for the intput. We will see, I have my marbles on the USD getting stronger by some stroke of god. I havent placed my bets yet, but then again I trade intra-day....nothing overnight.

Atlanta South 23:09 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
As I said earlier today I am out of all short $/CAD postions as I
tp on the last move down. My method has been saying stay short from the 1510 zone except for a few periods when it
went flat or started to go range bound & I should have stayed
short, but I didn't. Anyway, I was still able to slice out about
half of the move down. Staying flat on this pair for now. Price
action is far more important than any method. Just my humble
views of course. GT

UK Alex 23:06 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 22:56 GMT April 25, 2007
GDP is just above trend and there is no evidence of a slowdown yet. Continued strength in Europe is also helping the UK's economy. I think the euro is going to outperform the pound as our inflation may prove to be more transitory and for that reason the tightening cycle will end sooner. The pound trading at or above the $2 mark is purely a psychological thing. Once traders feel more comfortable above this level, I can't see any reason why it shouldn't press on higher.

Toronto YV 23:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
NYC beyond_destiny 22:59
The same here .

NYC beyond_destiny 22:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The spread of Kiwi is widened to 10 pip on my platform. Does anyone else experience the same? Is it a sign of unusual movement coming...

Syd 22:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 22:49 GMT feel like dr doom but with rates going , plenty of unscrupulous banks around to screw the public

fairfield JC 22:56 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 22:49 GMT April 25, 2007

In your eyes how is the stability in the UK. Do you think that with the growing concerns sprking up around the globe of financial instability in the economic sense as well as the housing etc. Do you think that the Cable can stay above the 2.000 mark, or do you think that the state of the UK is a little shaky at this point?

UK Alex 22:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 22:45 GMT April 25, 2007
The bit about letting standards slip is a gross understatement.

Syd 22:47 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
4Cast Australia says that if RBNZ put on capital controls it will destroy the economy he says they will go broke.

Syd 22:45 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Bank fears threat from credit standards
A surge in cheap corporate lending with looser credit standards “has increased the vulnerability of the [global financial] system”, the Bank of England will warn on Thursday in its strongest comments to date on financial stability.
The Bank also cautions against weakening standards of risk assessment when bank loans are repackaged and resold to new investors, such as pension and hedge funds. In its twice-yearly financial stability review, it says the recent turmoil in the US subprime mortgage market illustrates a problem that original lenders, which sold off the default risk, often allowed their standards to slip.“Similar problems in a more significant market, such as corporate credit, could have more serious consequences if credit quality were to deteriorate,” the Bank says, but it insists the UK financial system remains highly resilient, underpinned by a benign global economic outlook.
Its concerns relate to the consequences of an unforeseen shock to the global economy, world politics or a large financial institution. It is worried that other big financial institutions could find themselves over-exposed in the event of serious turbulence on global markets.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f5df94a2-f368-11db-9845-000b5df10621.html

USA Zeus 22:42 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Ha ha very funny. No ballz to use your real name or did you become so frightened that they became your tonsils?

NYC Mahmood 22:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
If Zeus had big positions on the Loonie he would have moved the market and if they were truly big and didn't move the market he would then be deep under water. Jon works in a grocery store and is currently fixing it up - don't let his words fool you. bibi.

NYC beyond_destiny 22:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
out eurcad long for positive...it test low once again and seems no sufficient gain before test 1.500/5/8

Monte-Carlo Robert 22:30 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Fireball XL5 22:13 GMT April 25, 2007 - Cannot disagree with you there Firecracker!All three missles pointing up based on my system.

Syd 22:29 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Intervention To Cap More NZD Gains A Big Risk -ABN

RBNZ's policy stetement today is "clear warning" that intervention to cap further NZD strength is "now a significant risk," says ABN AMRO currency strategist Greg Gibbs; adds RBNZ's comments that exchange rate exceptionally high, unjustified by fundamentals match criteria for FX intervention. Notes central bank has previously made clear that among other things exchange rate must be expectionally high or low, unjustified by economic fundamentals.

Ldn 6screens 22:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 22:14 GMT April 25, 2007

Don't worry, it wasn't me who made that post immediately after
yours.

USA Zeus 22:17 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 22:09 GMT April 25, 2007
No problem. Not martingale as am not chasing anything. However depending on what % of the total allocation is already in the market for this position and depending on what signal is given I may double and/or triple the size. The key is to keep enough blocks avail to do so when allocating. If in deep to where the allocation is almost finished but the mortar is not dry may remove enough by slicing out slabs to neutralize the prior heavy allocation(s) just depending. If you recall I at one point a few days ago had my stop set but a decent blip came and reset for repositioning. My objective is to be positioned in for the correction/reversal should it develop before a stop takes it out.

Syd 22:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Tightening Bias In Play But No Hike N/T -FNZ

Despite RBNZ making no outlook statement at OCR review, First NZ Capital economist Jason Wong thinks "a tightening bias is still in play," though he adds after two rate hikes, recent NZD strength it's not a strong bias to tighten further at this stage; "We think that monetary policy now enters a holdings pattern," says Wong, adding that run of economic activity data is likely to deteriorate following strong run, so RBNZ is expected to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach. "One shouldn't rule out the chance of another tightening later in the year, but at this juncture it's not our central forecast."

but Wong may be wong

LKWD JJ 22:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 6screens 21:49 GMT April 25, 2007
was referring to the one who was proud of buying cad on dips to avg down as she fell lower and lower...

UK Fireball XL5 22:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Ok Professor "Brainz", we're both now ready and standing by to launch primary counter-missile offensive. All systems are GO!

Sofia Kaprikorn 22:09 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 21:58 GMT //
sorry if bothering you - last Q - I'm interested as I've been averaging before but not very successfully.
so am I getting it correctly the approach:
at step1 - buy 1 unit
> down step 2 - buy 2 units
>> down step 3 - buy 3 or 4 (martingale style) units
-----here is a little correction Up - you lighten say 2 units
> then down step 4 - you buy again 2 units and start again the same process after every correction where you unload some ... I think I figure it but I might also be wrong - GLGT!!

ABHA FXS 22:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
EUR/JPY...
BEST SHORT POSTION
AT 161.84
TARGET 160.30

USA Zeus 22:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Looks like the USD might strengthen against EUR and GBP. Will sell on blips.

Auckland peat 21:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
So why would AUD leap up with RBNZ announcement?

USA Zeus 21:58 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 21:10 GMT April 25, 2007

No problem. Well yes and no but ultimately not.
What I mean is that my system gave a signal to slowly and steady as she goes allocate into a long position. So I did what my system called for. Now had I known for a fact that there were some 3 figures to be taken gratis I would be the first one in line. Since we cannot trade backwards (except for that one manipulator using indicative rates) we have to trade for the future. If it had charged up 10 figures what would we say now?

Ultimately, the system is still giving the signal so will trade those odds as we won't talk about what comes next until after it happens (All launch signals aside.) This is intended as an allocation in for a position not the typical plunk it down and quickly pull it out like the other fast strike trades of the past (still doing those too but will spare the forum any reads on those while this is still playing out). This strategy is something I have done many times for allocations albeit usually not as long of a process as this time- go figure. LOL Although it could develop into any scenario in the future- Pulling out all the blocks at once for any number of reasons is always a possibility. Either way discipline is the key. Win or lose all we can do is plan the trade and trade the plan.

USA Zeus 21:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Ever just feel it when the market reaches a pain/complacency threshold?
Ok- launch tubes pressurized and silo doors open. USD/CAD Trident D-5 launch imminent.

Auckland peat 21:51 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ftr my Aud/NZD shorts closed at break even.... spikes up were too much for my sandfly a/c. Didnt take the 100 pips x2 when they were available coz I was sticking to my target of 1.10 :+(
I know that pips count more but I'm happy with my analysis on this trade, it did offer good profit opportunities.

Bollard playing catch up trying to make up for his previous patience. Gotta admit tho, here, the economy still seems pretty strong. Housing (both buy and rent) has good demand.

Ldn 6screens 21:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I guess after a post like this:
LKWD JJ 19:24 GMT April 25, 2007
poor and proud!

it could only mean U?

LKWD JJ 21:39 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
i know someone else who tried that in cad . can you guess who?

Perth Randall El 21:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
==========
Sell now 2.0022. Sell again if rise every 30 pips.

Syd 21:35 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Homeowners warned of price crash in Spain
LINK

UP TO 35% of Liverpool’s new city centre apartments are lying empty, as an already flooded property market struggles to attract buyers, housing market experts claimed last night.

Analysts, MPs and councillors said they feared the city centre could become a “ghost town” of empty flats.LINK


Liverpool city centre could become a ghost town due to over-development
Analysts, MPs and councillors said they feared the city centre could become a "ghost town" of empty flats.
http://firstrung.co.uk/articles.asp?pageid=NEWS&articlekey=4761&cat=44-0-0

Syd 21:24 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Spanish property slump set to claim thousands of British victims
25th April 2007
Fears that a Spanish property bust could claim thousands of British victims were raised today following a massive slump in the country's real estate market.

Panic selling of shares in Spanish property firms yesterday signalled an end to the over-inflated housing boom, with price falls a real possibility, experts said.
It will come as bad news to British holiday home owners, with an estimated 250,000 Spanish properties believed to be in the hands of UK citizens.
But economists at Lombard Street Research warned that the housing market in Spain is about implode.
LINK

Assen Talent Scout 21:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Ldn 6screens 20:53 GMT April 25, 2007 lol - I know talent when I see it. You my friend are a talent in the making. Care to take a look in the mirror?

LKWD JJ 21:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
no problem good night!

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 21:13 //
hi man - sorry very messy now - will recharge and get tommorow with some ideas - pls excuse me and tnx for ur interest!

Sydney ACC 21:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 18:21 GMT April 25, 2007
Thanks for your views.
I guess your market is much the same as elsewhere, based on historical annual salary and wages income ratios property is overvalued.
I recall reading somewhere that Spanish property had increased in value in percentage terms at a far greater rate than larger markets such as the UK, USA and France. More recently I saw some figures where it was said 200k more units were being built than the market demand. I guess that's where you get people owing 3 to 4 unoccupied premises.
If there is a bubble it would be worth watching to see whether other European markets suffer such as Ireland.

LKWD JJ 21:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
just a thought for those leaving for the day. how will asia europe like the #'s from the us today?

LKWD JJ 21:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
kaprikorn what does the gbpjpy chart look like to you?

St. Annaland Bob 21:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
that's one healthy fruit salad for tonight, KIWI & APPLE ... happy trades!

Sofia Kaprikorn 21:10 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 19:44 //
pls excuse me for this Q: wasn't better that you shrted this with a good exposure at 1.14 when you strted it first?
I don't mean any offence or whatever - just asking from strategy point of view!

GVI john 21:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will increase by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent.

Recent indicators confirm that the resurgence in economic activity that began in late 2006 has continued over recent months, with domestic demand continuing to expand strongly. As we noted in March, demand is being fuelled by a buoyant housing market, increases in government expenditure, a rising terms of trade, ongoing net immigration, and a robust labour market.

The lift in domestic demand is placing further pressure on already-stretched productive resources. Firms report that capacity is very stretched and that they are again experiencing increased difficulty in finding both skilled and unskilled staff. Consistent with these pressures, non-tradables inflation has remained persistently strong and has recently shown signs of re-acceleration.

The trade-weighted exchange rate has risen further, which will exert some downward pressure on medium-term inflation. The exchange rate is now at levels that are both exceptional by historical standards, and unjustified on the basis of medium-term fundamentals. Parts of the export sector continue to face challenging conditions, but the recent sharp lift in world dairy prices is expected to provide a boost to incomes in that sector and tourist arrivals are continuing to grow.

There has already been a recent rise in fixed mortgage interest rates. This further increase in the OCR is aimed at ensuring that inflation outcomes remain consistent with achieving the target of 1 to 3 percent inflation on average over the medium term.

USA BAY 21:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
YES, 25BP, that is crazy

Pecs Andras 21:01 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Kiwi people are crazy?
rates raised by 25 bp

Ldn 6screens 20:53 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Just exactly who is the professor around here, lol. Guess 2 heads are better than one... lmao.

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Venus FX dating 20:46 GMT April 25, 2007 || French Canadian eh?

fairfield JC 20:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Auckland peat 20:45 GMT April 25, 2007

Thank you.

Venus FX dating 20:46 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   

CT Cris & AZUSA 4x-ed meet all criteria to announce them as man and wife, congratulations you two and make lots FX kids/pips.

Auckland peat 20:45 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
JC
15 mins...

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:43 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Z, figured out the reason for the higher loon. Apparently it is a form of taxation for the late snow birds. Those who leave Canada in September do not get punished upon return. Those who leave late (October or November), have to pay… I say, let’s give them tax relief by annexing them!

GVI john 20:40 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

NYC RTRS 20:40 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
NEW YORK, April 25 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Wednesday to a record low against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies tracked by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed's nominal trade-weighted daily index of the dollar's value against a basket of seven currencies fell to 78.99 from 79.24 on Tuesday.

fairfield JC 20:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
So NZD rates in 20 min? or 1hr and 20 min? TIA

sorry for being ignorant.

AZUSA 4x-ed 20:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 20:02 GMT April 25, 2007 || lol... yep, we can even skip a day from standing in the breadlines!

GVI john 20:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3639	118.70	1.2047	2.0019	1.1149	0.8331	161.89
High	1.3667	118.85	1.2060	2.0063	1.1229	0.8349	161.99
Low	1.3622	118.27	1.1995	2.0004	1.1143	0.8264	161.26
04/25/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/25/2007					
5 day 	1.3607	118.61	1.2059	2.0016	1.1221	0.8330	161.40
10 day	1.3574	118.96	1.2088	1.9974	1.1272	0.8331	161.34
20 day 	1.3475	118.82	1.2140	1.9838	1.1400	0.8248	160.04
50 day 	1.3319	118.39	1.2189	1.9633	1.1567	0.8043	157.67
100 day	1.3183	119.11	1.2270	1.9613	1.1633	0.7933	157.00
200 day	1.2987	118.07	1.2333	1.9278	1.1451	0.7781	153.35

LKWD JJ 20:05 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
strange world we live in. rba expected to leave rates alone sells off 1 cent vs usd. boc leaves rates alone rises 1cent vs usd. huh?

USA Zeus 20:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Professor- Guess the US isn't as bad as some say.

DOW 13,088
SP 500 1501.70

UK Alex 19:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
DJ Mexican Government Extends Tortilla Price Pact To August 15

HOU rj 19:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
MOS/vas
Excuse me ,would u please explain what u mean

mos vas 19:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
But better till some 155 :)

HOU rj 19:46 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I will be keep selling e/j till 162.42

USA Zeus 19:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Don't mind the typos plz- long day

USA Zeus 19:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
New USD/CAD cost = 1.11475.
Will lighten on a pop higher or one major allocation remaining before seting the skids.

UK Alex 19:39 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
BBC: Imports 'feed economic growth'

HOU rj 19:38 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
good opp. is coming up to sell eur/jpy ,patience is required

Auckland peat 19:35 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
useful little detachable clock
http://www.goforex.net/clock.htm

LKWD JJ 19:34 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy
october 13 2006 119.87 left shoulder
january 29 2007 122.18 head
april 16 2007 119.86 right shoulder
neck @1.15
maybe?

dc CB 19:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Oil Day....25th ...CD !!!

Auckland peat 19:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I wonder if those wishing to exit their kiwi longs (on basis of rate hike) have been doing so thru AUD/NZD. this has bounced too far IMO heheh, taking out my 2nd short at 1.1196 at break even.
Given lower likelihood of rate rise now one might have expected NZD/USD to have fallen further.

The Netherlands Purk 19:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
excuse me oa says it is 11136... so target 11166.PLOL

The Netherlands Purk 19:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Well bought loonie here at 11135 for 11165, 30 pips will do the trick.
now off to bed.

USA Zeus 19:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Heavy 1.1137's filled

AZUSA 4x-ed 19:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Here's my click on $CAD Dr. Z

LKWD JJ 19:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
cable closes since it took out $2.
87,35,23,10,21 and todays?

LKWD JJ 19:24 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
poor and proud!

USA Zeus 19:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Clicked and bought USD/CAD 1.1146's

LKWD JJ 19:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
if cable can close above 21(daily open) will signal upmove to resume.

USA BAY 19:08 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
HOU RJ,

Yes true, there is hardly been any correction on the kiwi. Maybe good idea to trade something else then trying to speculate on the short side of kiwi. Thanks

HOU rj 19:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA BAY
If u notice afew years back u may realise that, when all the Europian currenices tanked this NZD held on and on and on the highs for several months against the will of the whole world
It is up to u
Think of some thing else
gl/gt

dc CB 19:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
a remarkable run

http://www.stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$cdw&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p70737928148&r=5930]

Baltimore Zoltan 18:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 18:46 GMT April 25, 2007 :

NZD data at 5:00 and 6:45 pm Eastern Time, i.e. 4:00 and 5:45 Central Time.censored

USA BAY 18:51 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The bias seems no change for rate hike RBNZ, if that is the case, should one short nzd/usd and nzd/jpy considering the USD weakness. Can anyone care to comment. thanks

fairfield JC 18:46 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Thank you for the help......I have such a freakin problem figuring out the time conversions. I am off to get a cup of joe and to meditate, see yall at 5. Lates!!!

AZUSA 4x-ed 18:42 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
JC, 5 and 6:45 respectively (EST)

madrid mm 18:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
gmt
21:00 NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision 7.50% 7.50%
21:00 NZD Tax Receipts Revenues (MAR) -- --
22:45 NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (MAR) -- -0.127B
22:45 NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (MAR) -- 2.97B
22:45 NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (MAR) -- 2.85B

+ we have Bank of Japan Rate Decision sometimes tomorrow, but don t now what time

USA Zeus 18:40 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Bored so nibbled on some USD/CAD 1.1152's (Could it be the start of a B-52 bombing run on the Loon?)

fairfield JC 18:38 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
What time US central time does the NZD interest rates and trade balance come out tonight? And if that is to difficult GMT is fine. TIA

USA BAY 18:26 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CHF seems to form a double bottom, but I guess upside is limited though looking as usd weakness.

USA BAY 18:24 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
HOU RJ,

Well said. gt/gl

madrid mm 18:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 18:08 GMT April 25, 2007

Welcome to my club !

madrid mm 18:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sydney ACC 18:06 GMT April 25, 2007

I the HO of my other half, the prices will not fall and the "crisis" will not spread to other countries in the EU. She is Spanish 8-)

According to her , prices will slow down. From 10-20% price rises yearly to much more modest rises.

Also, IMHO it will crash like never before and i will become the king of real estate in Spain 8-)

I don t kow Syd. And your guess is a good if not better than mine. I look at it that way.
1/ When the average wage is around 17000 Euros, plus wage increase are about 1-3% /year and that house prices rise by 10-20% / year, something has to give.
2/you have to add historical behaviour from the people, by this i mean they still tend to believe that houses are the best investments they can make in general
3/renting a house in Spain is not part of their culture IMHo
4/I know people with 3 or 4 houses empty. Un real !
5/to finish it up. Regarding the the stock market. The main indice is the IMEX35. In the UK it is the FTSE 100. My poijnt is that the stock market is small and concentrated in a few companies. That exarcebates the move one way or the other.

Hope it was hopeful and clear
3/

HOU rj 18:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Intillegents devolap when defferent view points occour and both of u could devolap a constructive dialoge for the benefites of u both as well as the comminity

CT Cris 18:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Perth Randall El 18:07 GMT April 25, 2007
CT Cris 18:03 GMT April 25, 2007
====even with a person like you too..i dont read chart.

HOU rj 18:08 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
MM
I belong to the st.Thomas breed , will not accept unless seen and experienced with my own finger

Perth Randall El 18:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 18:03 GMT April 25, 2007

===
i dont trade even in demo
========================

Only "read chart"-LOL!

Sydney ACC 18:06 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Madrid, over recent days there have been a few postings on the forum about the price of property development stocks in Spain. There was particular mention made of Astroc Med. which fell from EUR 45 to EUR 16 in the space of a week.
There has been talk of a property bubble in Spain bursting.
In your opinion do you see property prices falling and if so do you have a concern that this may flow to other European markets that have experienced large capital gains over recent years?

PAR 18:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Beige book modest growth and excluding food and energy consumer prices mostly stable .

CT Cris 18:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 17:58 GMT April 25, 2007
===
with a person like you..i dont trade even in demo.

bucharest nick 18:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/2007/20070425/Default.htm

Toronto MRC 18:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
link to beige book anyone?

madrid mm 18:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Woaooooooo this is such a big move .........NOT !
LOL 8-)

madrid mm 17:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
HOU rj 17:56 GMT April 25, 2007

i take it you are prepared !?!?!?!

PAR time to buy a bycicle 8-)

AZUSA 4x-ed 17:58 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 17:53 GMT April 25, 2007 || You consider your demo account a trademark of bravery?

HOU rj 17:56 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
MM
Amen

PAR 17:56 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Nymex gasoline hit 8 month high before driving season .

madrid mm 17:53 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 17:49 GMT April 25, 2007

You never know with this market IMHO. You might be right ...
Dynamics work in strange ways + expect the unexpected and be prepared 8-)

CT Cris 17:53 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 17:49 GMT April 25, 2007
===
you are right..market will not be for you.

NYC beyond_destiny 17:50 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
significant level of resistance.

AZUSA 4x-ed 17:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I believe next week qualifies as a thin market... a time and place only for the brave!?

NYC beyond_destiny 17:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
euryen is in a regonizable patten that stall near significant 3-5 weeks. Now it's trading around 161.8 and likely stay another week or two.

madrid mm 17:47 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Just a reminder -

21:00 GMT
NZD RBNZ rate decision Apr

madrid mm 17:46 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar reached the highest in almost seven months, bolstered by a falling U.S. dollar and increasing prices for commodities, which account for 54 percent of exports.

The currency rose to the highest since Sept. 29 against the U.S. dollar after a U.S. government report showed new home sales rose less than economists expected last month, raising speculation the Federal Reserve may cut borrowing costs in the third quarter. The report also dropped the U.S. dollar to its record low against the euro.

``Commodities still look great, and we've also got a weakening U.S. dollar,'' said Steve Butler, director of foreign exchange trading in Toronto at Scotia Capital Inc. ``Everything's been working for Canada.''

madrid mm 17:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
KIWI lovers
blooberg
Koukoulas at TD Securities said the market is pricing in a 75 percent chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise rates tomorrow and a ``break lower is likely'' in the currency should policy makers hold rates.

In a Bloomberg News survey of economists, eight of 14 expect borrowing costs to stay unchanged.

Trade-Weighted Index

The central bank's traded-weighted index for the New Zealand dollar measures the currency against the Australian and U.S. dollars, the British pound, the yen and the euro.

The gauge was at 72.1 yesterday compared with 69.7 at the end of last month, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Web site shows.

A rate increase by the central bank may see the New Zealand dollar rise through 75 U.S. cents and 73 on a trade weighted basis, according to a TD Securities report dated April 20.

Strength in the currency will further hurt New Zealand exporters and see inflation head lower over the next few quarters as imports prices decline, Koukoulas wrote in the report.

Sanford Ltd., New Zealand's largest publicly traded fishing company, said on April 16 that first-half profit fell because the strong currency was ``decimating'' earnings and resulting in foreign-exchange losses.

Sheep farmers are being ``crucified by the high value of the New Zealand dollar,'' Keith Kelly, chairman of the meat section of Federated Farmers Inc., said on April 16.

``Over many years, the RBNZ has shown it is reluctant to hike into currency strength and indeed, has often used the currency strength as a reason not to hike,'' said Koukoulas.

madrid mm 17:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Uridashi securities are foreign currency-denominated debt that is sold to individuals in Japan. They are popular funding vehicles for the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

moscow mike 17:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 07:40 GMT April 20, 2007
Gold is in the real hot zone on my daily chart and is set for a $40+ correction under 691.
------------------
now fell below daily trend line for the second day and has a good potential to reach 66x

Mtl JP 17:35 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Loon will start towards the surface once his nutz (now like ballast) get rippedoff by the deepsea croccodiles.

HOU rj 17:35 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Wednesday afternoon
fight for a small peice of bread

Halifax CB 17:31 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 17:26 GMT April 25, 2007
Bogies at 1.117 :)

jkt-aye 17:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
cad 1.1156 ...i'm on to playing again with the nice goose, as long as it doesn't bite. lol.

RIC fxq 17:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
IFR fwiw:

[17:03 EUR/JPY: Impact of Strong EUR Noted] San Francisco, April 25. EUR/JPY is being underpinned by USD/JPY gains this afternoon as the USD gets a lift by the push back above 13,000 on the DJIA and the steady recovery in US bond yields.
However, EUR/JPY gains continue to be rebuffed by offers near 162.00. The yield spread for EUR bunds over JGBs continues to support the cross with the spread at 325 bp today, up from 311 bp a month ago. But, there are increasing signs that the EUR strength is causing some pain. Earlier this morning, German economic minister Glos said that the local economy is coping with the strength of the EUR, but another rise would be a risk for the local economy, calling 1.35 a realistic rate. Luxury goods group LVMH announced that in order to offset the effect of the EUR rise, it will have to increase prices, with the company sales
reduced by 6% last quarter on the EUR impact. Air Liquide reported that the EUR had a 3.7% negative impact on the quarter. On the other hand in Japan, Honda reported today a positive impact from the EUR strength with revenue up 24.5% in Europe compared to only a 2.8% gain in North America. Honda is assuming EUR/JPY at 152 for the first half of the fiscal year.
A break above 162.00 targets 162.40 and the recent high on the cross. Support is at 161.75.

USA Zeus 17:26 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Rockets are fired after short positions capitulate.

NYC beyond_destiny 17:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
loonie long is pretty tricky here...It's near the mid-term bottom, but could just stall here..

Long eurcad 1.5205 t/p 1% s/l 1.516

HOU rj 17:19 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Thank u
A nice post indeed

madrid mm 17:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Beige Book - Definition
This book is produced roughly two weeks before the monetary policy meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee. On each occasion, a different Fed district bank compiles anecdotal evidence on economic conditions from each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts.

Why Do Investors Care?
This report on economic conditions is used at FOMC meetings, where the Fed sets interest rate policy. These meetings occur roughly every six weeks and are the single most influential event for the markets. Market participants speculate for weeks in advance about the possibility of an interest rate change that could be announced upon the end of these meetings. If the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on the markets can be dramatic and far-reaching.

If the Beige Book portrays an overheating economy or inflationary pressures, the Fed may be more inclined to raise interest rates in order to moderate the economic pace. Conversely, if the Beige Book portrays economic difficulties or recessionary conditions, the Fed may see the need to lower interest rates in order to stimulate activity.

Since the Beige Book is released two weeks before each FOMC meeting, investors can see for themselves at least one of the many indicators which Fed officials will use to determine interest rate policy, and can position their portfolios accordingly.

bloomberg

Makassar Alimin 17:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 17:08 GMT April 25, 2007

true, i also think that if we dont have weekly close under 1.20 this month, then we should be ready for some rallies this quarter

Sofia mik 17:09 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   

very interesting :

http://www.globalincidentmap.com/home.php

AZUSA 4x-ed 17:08 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
$CHF failed to launch the depth charges again. Could be that we may have a bottom in place.

USA Zeus 17:00 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
New USD/CAD cost 1.1163. Have traps set like a crab fisherman. Let's see...

Atlanta South 16:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Well I see staying short $/CAD has finally paid off. All shorts
now close. Gl & GT to all.

London NYAM 16:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Two words: Beige book
Good luck everyone. i'm going home.

moscow mike 16:38 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 23:43 GMT April 24, 2007
feels like the EUR, GBP and JPY are in a "test and digest" phase.

USA Zeus 21:51 GMT April 24, 2007
Let's see if the EUR/USD 1.3777 quadratic gets hit.

-----------------
Your quadratic 3777 seems to be the same point with weekly rising channel top. Testing is in progress....

USA BAY 16:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
PERTH RANDALL,

Maybe you guys should start your own forum for personal attacks, and not here.

Sofia mik 16:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:23 GMT April 25, 2007
usd.cad
=====
in sinking in deep downtrend and heading twd 1.1140

uscad,gbp/cad bottomed 05, 06 y/multi decade low
to the end of 07 or Q1orQ 2 of 2008 ,usd/cad will be above 1.30

lkwd jj 16:34 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
cable has yet to close on a daily basis -$2. 2.0012 lowest. kaprikorn i think that if macd can give positive divergence in cad and still it drops 100 pips same can be in cable but to the upside. was short 22 and got stopped out 55 back in short 52 out @ 50 .im not sur if to buy here with stop below 2 on close or wait for new high today 61(censored)

Perth Randall El 16:34 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 16:29 GMT April 25, 2007
So you come out for some light and get trapped for 8 pips?
Also, saw you followed me today (again late and at a worse price) to buy gbp.usd.
Understood- bibi

HOU rj 16:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Would u guys please stop these personal attacks
TIA

Halifax CB 16:31 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Re. $CAD - if this bottom holds for a couple of hours, I have a roughly 70% chance of it making it back above 1.117 in the next day or two. (Have to do this by eye ball, still working on a better probability model, so take it fwiw, which isn't much....)...

CT Cris 16:29 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
perth Randall El 16:25 GMT April 25, 2007
8pips is just a trap for the rats to come out of there hidden places.

London NYAM 16:29 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sophia/Kaprikorn// Sounds good. E-mail available from Jay oc course. I'd be happy to share ideas (but keep them to yourself k? ;) ).

HK Kevin 16:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:06 GMT, CAD/JPY just trades at all time high 106.44. If it retreat a bit, it may help our long USD/CAD position.

perth Randall El 16:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
That joker is back with an 8 pip prediction.

CT Cris 16:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
usd.cad
=====
in sinking in deep downtrend and heading twd 1.1140

fairfield JC 16:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
moscow mike 16:17 GMT April 25, 2007
USA Zeus 16:06 GMT April 25, 2007
you are not alone

you both are not alone!!!

USA BAY 16:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CAD/JPY next level 108.40, any comments anyone. tia

HK Kevin 16:19 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 15:58 GMT, many thanks. My strategy is to wait for late NY time. If it still trades above 161.80, I will cover the short positiin. Otherwise, put a stop around 162.25 for overnight.

moscow mike 16:17 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 16:06 GMT April 25, 2007
you are not alone

AZUSA 4x-ed 16:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Dr. Z, a bit of music doesn't hurt either:
Kick 'em when they're up
Kick 'em when they're down
Kick 'em when they're stiff
Kick 'em all around

USA BAY 16:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD,

A break of 1.1145 targets 1.1090 and 1.1030. 1.1185/90 is resistance on rebounds

USA Zeus 16:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
1.1137 that is.

USA Zeus 16:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Looking for 1.1437 for an exponential add-on.

USA Zeus 16:06 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
jj- Right! Thx for the concern. Am the only buyer left so who knows what's next?

Professor- Great to see you here with yet another valuable lesson. Also that SP 500 is ever so close to that 1500 marker.

Bought a bit more 1.1145

Sofia Kaprikorn 16:05 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 15:51 //
tnx for your comment - yesterday was my first day with new account & brokr - and I did exactly the same mistakes I was doing the last 4 years...:) so today with 50% drawback on my small acc I withdraw for a party and will resume next day with a different approach.. anyway I drafted a A4 list hand written with all the messy things I got wrong these 2 days so that they remind me... btw in future we might exchange mails - I like the idea of discussing chart setups and possible scenarios - only the Mny Mgmt I have to manage --- bye and excuse me for too much posting!

UK Alex 16:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Do not allow a camel to put his nose under the edge of your tent, for soon you will have a camel in your tent!

fairfield JC 16:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
looks like the CAD wants to hit around 1112 weekly pivot. But there is still hope.

lkwd jj 16:01 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
zues make sure cad doesnt become cadaver!

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sand flies do not make noise when they fly or jump, so people may not realize they are being bitten. Sand flies are very small and may be hard to see; they are only about one-
fourth the size of mosquitoes. Sand flies are most active from
dusk to dawn. They are less active during the hottest times of
the day.

Hong Kong Ahe 15:58 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
HK Kevin 15:40 GMT April 25, 2007 - Hi Kevin, Usually at this session of Wednesday, Yenophobies will square the Yen Cross and taking profit. GBPYEN, AUDYEN and NZDYEN are not as bullish as EURYEN. Or set upper limit to 162.28. If NZ hike rate, NZDYEN may react and cause other YEN cross to follow the move. Now it is rather complicated to see how the market react to NZD rate hike. Or some big boys are waiting to sell the news. GL & GT.

CT Cris 15:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
sorry Zues , it seems that Alex and others know you better than me ,accordingly they thought that sentence is for you.

USA Zeus 15:51 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Can't help it- Bought some 1.1147's

London NYAM 15:51 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sophia Kap//re GBPJPYScatch that 237.25 offers srising trend line support before the figure. A break of 238.00 resumes up trend esp after 238.33 23/4 high. Move since 3:30 24/4 low slooks like the potential as an ascending diagonal if the 236.87 level holds.
In other words: a bit murky to trade for small movements in sideways correction.

USA Zeus 15:47 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Just to be clear have slabbed out of plenty on the 73's to add lower if the bombing run continues.
GT all

USA Zeus 15:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Boston TT 15:02 GMT April 25, 2007

TT-Sorry for confusion. Prior $ mgt post was too short and incorrect (happens in a hurry).

Taking with rounding errors 1/3*(1.1214 As 1/3 weight+ 2/3*(.333* 1.1166, .666*1.1171) to 2/3*1.1156

This comes to 1.116659 but position is at 1.116749.

Ok- Enough of Zeus for a while. Need to find that bottle of CRIStal and let the twin-headed azz sip on it.

HK Kevin 15:40 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 15:19 GMT, any ideas on the YEN cross. I have a E/Y short position at 161.80. My chart readings show upside presure for USD/JPY to 119.20 and E/Y may be 163-164. So, it is cautious to close my position before going to bed.

lkwd jj 15:40 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Subprime `Liar Loans' Fuel Housing Bust With $1 Billion Fraud

By Bob Ivry

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Cheating on mortgage applications is so widespread and so seldom punished that it's fueling an increase in foreclosures that will prolong the housing slump, said Robert W. Russell, counsel to the director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, which oversees savings and loans.

Borrowers and brokers commit fraud when they exaggerate the applicant's income, qualifying the borrower for a home he otherwise couldn't afford. Such fraud robbed lenders of an estimated $1 billion last year, according to data collected by the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers Association and the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

RIC fxq 15:39 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
IFR fwiw:

[15:34 GBP/USD: Trying to Reignite Rally] Boston, April 25. After a week of consolidation, GBP/USD is trying to reignite its rally. M&A concerns are helping keep dealers from jumping into GBP longs with both feet as RBS joins the fray with a largely cash bid for ABN (along with partners Fortis and Santander). A pharma deal is working its way through the market a well, helping keep the topside contained.
Offers are scattered from 2.0060 to 2.0150 but small stops are eyed near 2.0070 near-term, dealers note. Bids are eyed at 2.0035 and 2.0005 near-term. censored[IFR Forex Watch]
[SQUAWK BOX]

usa-pa bjkj 15:36 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
oooooooooooooooops., gbp/usd, 2.0100 should be easy

usa-pa bjkj 15:34 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
sized road block for gbp/usd at 70, if it can make it through, 2.1000 should be easy

madrid mm 15:33 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
AZUSA 4x-ed 15:29 GMT April 25, 2007

yes , don t trust economist LOL

“The economy depends about as much on economists as the weather does on weather forecasters.”

UK Alex 15:33 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 15:28 GMT April 25, 2007
Keep it to yourself. It's not clever and it's not constructive and it just litters the forum.

fairfield JC 15:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I joined the USD/CAD long group for a bit in @ 51

Bandung Frans 15:30 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Looks like presure buying for gbp/usd strong enought to pull up than 2.0100 ...imo...any thoughts ?? thx

HK Kevin 15:29 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Join the long USD/CAD camp at 1.1154. 30 pips stop

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:29 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Just going over some articles and hoping to make sense of EY valuation. I see here that a number of economists consider the E$ current valuation not overbought, but correct. I also hear the same about $Y, so it stands to reason that there should not be a complaint about the value of EY. Any flaws in these views? TIA

CT Cris 15:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:15 GMT April 25, 2007
CT Cris 15:13 GMT April 25, 2007
====
that sentence was a part of a game ...says
match this sentence with a person you know.
====
sorry if you matched it with Zues.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe 15:19 //
certainly - GV is no doubt a guide light
I just happen to notice their reports are more ccy focused and they deliver reports by major houses.. which is a wealth of info but also confusing since the timeframes are maybe quite different... anyway tnx for the input.

USA Zeus 15:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Toronto WA 14:49 GMT April 25, 2007
Thx for your kind words! :-)

London NYAM 15:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:12 GMT April 25, 2007 //re: GBPJPY
Looks to me like like its still in corrective sideways mode on small time frames (30m). I suspect another test is likely soon of 237.00.

USA Zeus 15:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Boston TT 15:02 GMT April 25, 2007

TT- Sorry. Will need to clarify later as busy trading atm.
GT!

Hong Kong Ahe 15:19 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:07 GMT - The news feed is free and quite good. But afx is more diversified. Also the news feeds from this forum supplied by members are excellent - They are always the fastest. You cant miss GV. LOL. GL & GT.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:19 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:17 GMT //
tnx - appreciate it

madrid mm 15:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
and to top it all it is raining in Madrid !!! 8-(

UK Alex 15:17 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:14 GMT April 25, 2007
Ask Jay for my email and we can discuss this privately.

UK Alex 15:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 15:13 GMT April 25, 2007
We don't need to hear that from you. Zeus's trades are genuine and not after the fact like some I could mention. Anyway, I thought you were the one who doesn't scoff.

madrid mm 15:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:11 GMT April 25, 2007

i would like to know it please Alex

Grinding 8-) like slow motion . Thank God for the usd-nok today

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 15:11 //
pls excuse me - I know it's not polite here to discuss things like this - just i get different dj newsfeeds from 2 of my platforms - was interested in some feedback.. anyway case closed - curiouslity is never too good..

CT Cris 15:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
give him a chance to show the level and degree of his stupidity.

Halifax CB 15:12 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
There seems to be a problem with slow connections to lots of places, even from up here.

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:12 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
EURJPY & GBPJPY (2h) look very toppish with MACD crossing down - anyone agree they are good sell around these levels?

UK Alex 15:11 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 15:07 GMT April 25, 2007
I know a very good platform for DJ Newswires service and it is completely free.

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:11 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
correction 1.2 = 1.12

Mtl JP 15:11 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
One known event risk left today
18:00GMT - Fed Beige Book
------
Should cast some light on housing, housing related ATM (counted as household "income" by the powers that are) and possibly the (non)containment of manufacturing faltering (or not) into the wider economy autside of auto and housing.

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:08 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
btw. next stop on $CAD could be 1.109 or back in the 1.2 area

Sofia Kaprikorn 15:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Hong Kong Ahe //
hi - do you like the g f _t - dj newsfeed they offer?

Boston TT 15:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus. I show the avg at 1.11787. Correct me if I am wrong

Take 33.33333333333% 1.1214 add that 66.666666666666%* 1.1161 and the magical sum =1.116749

AZUSA 4x-ed 15:01 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Joining the long $CAD camp! GT & Cheers

Hong Kong Ahe 14:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
rag bar 14:42 GMT April 25, 2007 - me too, cant login. Before that, a warning of unstable connection.

London NYAM 14:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
GBP Very much looks like 5 wave sequences up and 3 wave correctives down. Trend is turning/has turned. Still waiting for the 2.0100 to break today.

Minneapolis DRS2 14:50 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
rag bar 14:42 GMT April 25, 2007

According to support there's an ISP problem...they say to try again in 15 mins, or call the dealing desk to make a trade.

Toronto WA 14:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:28 GMT April 25, 2007

A few of us here have watched with amusement then bemusement and dare I say something approaching admiration at your CAD strategy. It's not for everyone - but certainly your allocations have always been timely. I did not have the pockets to follow - but I have kept an eye on your activities - and now have a small long at 1.1165.

Good luck (if "luck" has anything to do with it) I tend to the view that your (posted LONG TERM) strategy will pay off.

Good Trades

USA Zeus 14:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Now taking some of that off @ 1.1173 for 6 (5.51) teenies to lighten the load.

Lahore FM 14:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 14:45 GMT April 25, 2007
also nick named the inverted pyramid i think.

lkwd jj 14:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 14:27 GMT April 25, 2007
went from overs to unders!!!!

madrid mm 14:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
dont forget 18:00 GMT USD Fed's beige book

USA Zeus 14:45 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Share an experience here-


Ok- Here it is. Have added in incremental steps and exponential steps at certain "hot zones" (mentioned this in the past already) When/if a bounce comes I take the heat off in slabs to free capital for further building (as seen here for the last week or so).
So- Yesterday ave was 1.1217 (as posted) added 10% to that buy buying "some" 1.1188's. New ave = 1.1214
Then on a triple down (As seen previously here) heavy exponential allocation into a hot zone bought new allocation 20% 1.1166, 20% 1,1171, (more more more) 40% 1.1156 all with new portfolio allocation at 66.666% (ave 1.1161)

Take 33.33333333333% 1.1214 add that 66.666666666666%* 1.1161 and the magical sum =1.116749

NYC BM 14:45 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I am having trouble... and they say their system is unstable on the support page.

Kaunas DP 14:42 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
slow profit taking by big boys and 60% chance of reversal into USD per EUR/USD - IMHO

rag bar 14:42 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
anybody here has problems with G*F*censored* ?

Halifax CB 14:40 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus - it sounds more or less like a martingale, way too risky for my shallow pockets. But good luck to you - I figure there's a reasonable chance to get back to the 1.1180's today or tomorrow.

madrid mm 14:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
PARIS (Thomson Financial) - Francois Bayrou, candidate of the centrist-right (UDF) party for the French presidency, who was eliminated in the first round with a score of 18.5 pct, said he will not advise his supporters to back either Nicolas Sarkozy or Segolene Royal in the May 6 run-off.

The announcement is significant because Bayrou is thought to have attracted natural voters of both Sarkozy's UMP centre-right party and of Royal's socialist party, the PS, who were put off by the personality or proposals of the candidates.

He also announced he is forming a new, centrist, 'democratic party'.

A new Ipsos/Dell poll published today showed Sarkozy is set to beat Royal in the second round with 53.5 pct of the vote against 46.5 pct.

It said 39 pct of Bayrou voters will back Royal and 35 pct Sarkozy, with the remainder not responding or saying they will abstain.

Bayrou attacked both Royal's 'statist' programme and Sarkozy's divisive social policies.

hk ab 14:36 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
kind of toppish for gbp at the moment.

hk ab 14:33 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
the controlled action on gold will eventually hurt aud.

NY tim 14:31 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
any timing info re EUR/USD options which do cap the rally? TIA

USA Zeus 14:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
NYC 14:27 GMT April 25, 2007
If you like I can supply the allocations before the ketchup bottle burts on your nice shiny new tie???

madrid mm 14:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
LKWD JJ 14:13 GMT April 25, 2007

it is cricket world cup related regarding this AUD 8-)

CT Cris 14:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Ramat Afal SBS 12:59 GMT April 25, 2007
Cris, Hello!
how do you see this price action in euro/$ today ?
it was stuck too long up there and failing to do any progres??.
I rather went short cable at 2.0050 will consider closing this position.
=====
sorry , I was sleeping...
gbp.usd in uptrend again..sideways uptrend.

NYC 14:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, I do not want to get into a food fight but if you managed to trade it to a 1.1167 avg, you must be a magician. I will say no more on this subject.

Halifax CB 14:24 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
One has to wonder if the high life is finally catching up to the USD.....

Halifax CB 14:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
One has to wonder if the high life is finally catching up to the USD.....

USA Zeus 14:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Should read "No one should do what I or anyone else does for that matter"

CT Cris 14:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 12:43 GMT April 25, 2007
gbp.usd
====
bought at 20014.
will buy another at 30 pips intervals if decline more
=====
I went to sleep and limit my exit at 20046.
I just woke up..to find it excuted.

USA Zeus 14:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
NYC 14:16 GMT April 25, 2007
Should I even explain this further? I explained my strategy from the beginning. And No one should do what I or anyone else for that matter. Am simply sharing my experiences here not begging for accounts to manage or signals to sell like some.


And- The strategy is right UNTIL it is wrong which is where the stop will be. Surprised you ask this for an allocation scale-in position that has been explained over and over.

madrid mm 14:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
China Humbles U.S., Japan in Asian Charm Game: William Pesek

By William Pesek

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- China's economy has humbled many smart people in recent years.

It has defied those arguing it would slow, those predicting a hard landing, those saying its currency would surge and those concerned that social unrest would shake Asia's second-biggest economy to its core.

Yet no one has been more outmaneuvered by China than the world's two biggest economic powers: the U.S. and Japan.
Click here

USA Zeus 14:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus in very deep now. Ave cost 1.1167.
Without any re-positioning can only add 1 last major allocation before setting the skids.

NYC 14:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Zeus, assuming you are serious and not pulling our collective legs, at what point do you admit your are wrong as you started buying 300 pips ago. This is important as the average trader will see his account wiped out trading that way.

CANBERRA JD 14:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
JEEZ trying to get to bed.. But not able to... STOP MOVING DAG NAMIT

UK Alex 14:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Mtl JP 14:06 GMT April 25, 2007
The idiom is 'stubborn as a mule'. Persistence is more determination over reason. Just my two cents.

hk ab 14:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
it seems the BO is not dlr/cad only but dlr index....

LKWD JJ 14:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
any reason aussie back to where it was pre data from 2 days ago when it dropped? is this another sell, or is it that strong and will keep moving?

USA Zeus 14:12 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
More more more @ 1.1156

hk ab 14:12 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
JP//I believe the BO of dlr/cad is imminent.

Analista Fx 14:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
tired of usdcad
close position -235 pips!

LKWD JJ 14:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
out on wrong side of short $Y and long udcad.

Mtl JP 14:06 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 13:41 / "persistence" is a trait of mules.
--
dlrcad support: 1.1150, below that deep and dark.

USA Zeus 14:05 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
And 1.1166

USA Zeus 14:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Ok- Now loaded USD/CAD 1.1171 (offer)

The Netherlands Purk 14:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Well the first round in e/u starts now, i guess the oily boilies will use this to short the loonert some more...

UK Alex 14:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
DJ * US Mar New Home Sales +2.6% To 858,000 ; Consensus 890,000

DJ * US Feb New Home Sales Revised To 836,000 From 848,000

hk ab 14:01 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
data?

madrid mm 13:58 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Identifying when a change in trend is occurring is one of the most important skills a trader can learn.
Click here

hk ab 13:56 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
boys and girls, this morning Asian selloff of usd is not seemed to be a coincidence....

madrid mm 13:49 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Due at 10 am are US new home sales expected to have risen 4.7% to 890 mln units last month after two consecutive monthly declines of 4.0% and 16% in February and January. Yesterday's larger than expected drop in existing home sales was received relatively by the dollar at a time when the currency came off its session highs. A positive reading in new home sales combined with an increase in new home sales could especially jolt USDJPY higher amid rising equity market optimism, specifically with the Dow chasing the unprecedented 13,000 mark. simsi

USA Zeus 13:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
fairfield JC 13:41 GMT April 25, 2007
Thx for the kind words JC. Never know in advance as this could be a losing trade like any other. Great Trades to you! :-)

fairfield JC 13:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:37 GMT April 25, 2007

That was for you what I wrote below Zeus.

fairfield JC 13:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I admire your persistance and complete focus on your strategy. I at first didnt get why you were long the USD/CAD but now I understand. You are on the other side of the boat with all of the big boys, cause what is happening in the markets now is just the small players continuing what they started. Anyway, good luck to all and good trading, actually NO..........incredible trading!!!!

St. Annaland Bob 13:38 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 13:35 GMT April 25, 2007

EURJPY printing 16300 without USDJPY going above 11920 may signal turning point for JPY in general and finger out the dam for USD ... that two conditions holding may show the real run for EURUSD and the other contis

USA Zeus 13:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:27 GMT April 25, 2007
Sure and sorry if it came across the wrong way was not trying to suggest anything otherwise. My only point is that to me data does not create logic nor reason for price but just the opposite.

The logic for my actions is to build into this position block by block then re-adjust (many times thus far) as necessary to keep the foundation firm. Obviously, looking back this trend has been longer (but not necessarily deeper) than I had anticipated. But for the Loonert I prefer to allocate in to a position vs jump in for the hellfire quick srike patterns. Think of it as if I had (but don't) several yards to invest. This is the process I'd prefer. Have explained myself to exhaustion here in the archives. Just consider this different than a scalp trade (even though I may take some size off on small rallies to re-align the tower).

hk ab 13:35 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
will try some e/j short if 163 eventually prints.

UK Alex 13:33 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ab, If oil and commodities continue to fetch a good price, it can only be good for the Canadian economy.

hk ab 13:31 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Alex, if I see the BO in dlr/cad shorts, I will also join the long team.

UK Alex 13:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I admire your commitment. I'm not a 'told you so' type person, just trying to find some reason or logic behind your view.

Mtl JP 13:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Event risk:
14:00GMT - U.S. new home sales mrkt: 890K. Previous: 848K.

--
"expensive" durable goods apparently were not judged expensive enough seeing as economists erred by some 46% in their expectation. (actual 3.4 vs 2.3expected)

The Netherlands Purk 13:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Mr. Zeus i'll take my hat of for you, and the hellfire will start when the oily boilies will get fed up with playing...

Guess that all we can do right now if the ez show will start and ends at 1500 gmt...

CANBERRA JD 13:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Expecting a strong USD push to end today... Maybe 50 pips per pair :P.. Would be a nice end to what has been a weird but reasonable day. I see u/chf going up to sky to anyone who asked.

A/u i want to see test 8200 before deciding on what to do next. Was actually surprised it got any upside today. But its playing perfect from the previous top.. right into my hands. Ahh yes.. your anguish sustains me.

G/u should start its decent down in coming days/week.. So many people desperate to keep it up over 2.0000.. Its far too expensive for people to bother.. Watch out for a carry unwind also.. I am off to sydney for the last 2 days of this week. So I won't be trading, just expect a stronger dollar coming up in my opinion.

RIC fxq 13:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Forex - Canadian dollar brushes off strong US data to hit near 6-mth high vs usd
Wednesday, April 25, 2007 9:22:00 AM


LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Canadian dollar brushed off strong US durable goods data to hit its highest level in nearly six months against its US counterpart as the market concluded that Canada is well-placed to benefit from a stronger US economy.

Figures released this afternoon showed US durable goods surged by 3.4 pct over the month, way above the 2.3 pct rise analysts had expected.

Immediately after the data, the US dollar rose to 1.1208 cad from 1.1196 just before the figures were released, only to quickly rebound to a low of 1.1183 cad. This is the Canadian dollar's strongest level since the end of October last year.

While other major currencies have fallen against the dollar in the wake of the data, the Canadian dollar has benefited as the market concluded that a stronger US economy may allow the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates.

'If the US economy holds its ground, the BoC may be forced to focus on inflation sooner than expected,' giving the Canadian dollar 'a cushion other currencies may not enjoy,' said Thomson IFR Markets analyst Jamie Coleman.

He noted that the Bank of Canada has singled out US weakness as its main downside risk.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada left interest rates on hold at 4.25 pct.

AFX

USA Zeus 13:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Daily USD/CAD chart shows (since yesterday) a hellfire reaction pattern. So, I may be the only buyer left but am sticking to my views.

USA Zeus 13:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK Alex 13:16 GMT April 25, 2007
Alex-
Should and must are words I threw out the window a long time ago in the trading business. Always an opportunity to say "I told you so...or...I don't understand data says this so price should do that but isn't etc." However, price creates news not the other way around.
cheers

UK Alex 13:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USA Zeus 13:07 GMT April 25, 2007
Zeus, durable goods data was a positive for oil and commodities? CAD should strengthen, no?

The Netherlands Purk 13:12 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:42 GMT April 25, 2007

Plattys low is 136229 here, so i had to move quickly and i got 13628..
Remeber the time zones...

hk ab 13:12 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
any lower you want to add?

USA Zeus 13:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ab- Yep. Took some 1.1188's

The Netherlands Purk 13:06 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Loonie: first bounce, but maybe small will be at 11177... I warn the longers that this is just a zone, and that parts in the zone can be skipped, that is why i said 11130ish. I know that orders will be pulled out when the dive is too steep, and that follows with more dive...

BTW i closed my last e/u at 136288888888. so that makes ex. 20 pips.

UK Alex 13:06 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 12:57 GMT April 25, 2007
We were expecting dip buying on Euro/$ after very good data out of Europe this morning. Durable goods is a volatile series and provided a good opportunity to get long again.

hk ab 13:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
zeus, have you loaded more to make your average under 1.12?

madrid mm 13:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Something to bear for tonight Kwi lovers -
21:00 GMT

NZD RBNZ rate decision Apr

RBNZ Rate Decision (21:00GMT)
Expected: 7.50%
Previous: 7.50%

and before that we have in GMT
14:00 USD U.S. New home sales Mar
14:00 USD U.S. New home sales M/M Mar
18:00 USD Fed's beige book

HK REVDAX 12:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Hi...just want to get an idea on how high $/CHF could possibly go up before mkt close.

Ramat Afal SBS 12:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Cris, Hello!
how do you see this price action in euro/$ today ?
it was stuck too long up there and failing to do any progres??.
I rather went short cable at 2.0050 will consider closing this position.

madrid mm 12:58 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
talking of mistakes -
8-)
The decision at the Bank of Norway to keep rates unchanged was surprising and the fact that Bloomberg made a reporting mistake by indicating a hike initially lead to massive intraday volatility (probably never seen the like in EURNOK). If EURNOK breaks 8.2130, it is bound to test the 8.35-40 area again, but we think such a break is unlikely, since the Bank of Norway has to hike rates at the next meeting.

Bodrum OEE 12:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 12:54 GMT April 25, 2007

Thank you very much. I will run a search in archive. Kind regards

madrid mm 12:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
i guess the DJ will break te 13 000 mark today, won't it ?

melbourne DC 12:54 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Bodrum OEE 12:41 GMT April 25, 2007
hello.. that was posted on the GVI forum. a bit hard to re-post here as i run gvi on another computer. maybe u can ask jay , he's the boss of this forum. all the best .

madrid mm 12:53 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
fwiw
this 119 ud-yen lvl has been hard to break for about a week now....

London NYAM 12:50 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
And Chris gets the last laugh. Nice scoop even if the last exit was a little late for followers.
Still long here too.

CT Cris 12:43 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
====
bought at 20014.
will buy another at 30 pips intervals if decline more.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:42 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
well Purk! 20 is yours

Bodrum OEE 12:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
melbourne DC 12:25 GMT April 25, 2007
GVI Jay 12:20gmt


I could not see them here. Could you kindly let me know where they are ? Thank you

Mtl JP 12:36 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ideally dlrcad goes 1.1250ish to regain height for a new bridge-bombing raid at 1.1180

Mtl JP 12:34 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
SYD, "expensive" is relative. To what: made in China ?

RIC fxq 12:34 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Germany's Glos says a further strengthening of euro could hurt German economy
Wednesday, April 25, 2007 7:42:00 AM


BERLIN (Thomson Financial) - German Economy Minister Michael Glos said the local economy is coping well with the current strength of the euro against the dollar but not if the currency appreciates any further.

Speaking at a news conference to unveil the latest government forecasts, Glos said, 'The German economy is apparently coping well with the current euro-dollar rate.'

'But if it were to rise very strongly again, that would mean risks (for the local economy),' he said, referring to the euro.

He said a euro at 1.35 usd would be a 'realistic' rate.

Syd 12:31 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Demand for expensive goods rose during March in a broad-based increase that was better than expected, and a gauge of spending by businesses rebounded.

Orders for durable goods increased by 3.4% last month to a seasonally adjusted $214.85 billion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Durables, which are goods designed to last at least three years, rose 2.4% in February, revised from a previously estimated 1.7% increase.

Houston SG 12:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
where do you see the cad/yen headed?

melbourne DC 12:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
GVI Jay 12:20gmt

Excellent points on eurusd. thanks. with a clear uptrend, buy dips where reserve mgr buying seems to work so far.

CT Cris 12:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
20050 reading on chart will be seen 20048/52 into bid/ask form
soon , it became 20044/48 if you want to close yr position.

Mtl JP 12:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Event risk:
12:30GMT - March durable goods mrkt: 2.5%

The Netherlands Purk 12:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Loonie is about to seek for a new low.
NN not there still so if it bangs, be prepared to see 11130, yes 11130.

Sofia Kaprikorn 12:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
not sure but EURUSD grinds up - no looking back...

CT Cris 12:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
london phil 12:02 GMT April 25, 2007
is that the 52 from over 1 hour ago criss if so what is the point in posting reallly i would like to know.
======
exiting long position..means price will decline and will rise again
in Cris dictionary.

The Netherlands Purk 12:08 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Loonie: we are doing some up and down for this week. Think i saw 11211,11220 and 11240 zillion times. But everytime we come to that 11240 point there are big sellers. So there is no pattern anymore, and that means that if you decide to close it will go your way and if you stay in it will go against you hows that...

e/u i dont see any descent reatreat, but cant believe if we decided not to see 13620 anymore...

e/j: why not 16230 and than wham into the 163. I will short 16320-16340-16360-16380. Looks far away but it aint...

CT Cris 12:08 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
london phil 12:02 GMT April 25, 2007
====
that was the chart reading immediately b4 I posted,
platform was`at 48.

madrid mm 12:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I am having a heart attack LOL !!!!! 8-) I am out

madrid mm 12:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 06:03 GMT April 25, 2007
this NOK might be worth a look today fwiw
Today's key events gmt +2
09:30 Unemployment & Trade Balance, SEK
10:00 IFO, DEM/EUR
10:30 GDP, GBP
14:00 Rate announcement, Norges Bank

london phil 12:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
is that the 52 from over 1 hour ago criss if so what is the point in posting reallly i would like to know

madrid mm 12:00 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
quick check usd-NOK I am in yihaaaa !!!!!!

CT Cris 11:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
CT Cris 07:52 GMT April 25, 2007
gbp.usd
======
I bought @ 20030.
===exited @20052 inorder to buy again at lower price.

GVI john 11:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF AUD/USD GBP/JPY GBP/CHF USD/CAD CHF/JPY

Access accurate and free GVI

	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD	AUD/USD	EUR/JPY
1900GMT	1.3625	118.66	1.2028	1.9999	1.1227	0.8267	161.67
High	1.3636	118.95	1.2105	2.0045	1.1247	0.8339	161.69
Low	1.3548	118.24	1.2007	1.9957	1.1193	0.8233	160.23
04/24/2007							
Simple mva	basis =>	04/24/2007					
5 day 	1.3595	118.60	1.2061	2.0024	1.1248	0.8336	161.23
10 day	1.3553	119.02	1.2104	1.9947	1.1298	0.8323	161.17
20 day 	1.3458	118.73	1.2145	1.9818	1.1422	0.8234	159.73
50 day 	1.3308	118.43	1.2197	1.9625	1.1577	0.8033	157.60
100 day	1.3179	119.09	1.2270	1.9608	1.1637	0.7928	156.92
200 day	1.2983	118.06	1.2334	1.9271	1.1452	0.7777	153.28

Syd 11:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
US Mar Building Permits Revised To +2.0% From +0.8%
WASHINGTON U.S. building permits for March were revised to up 2.0% from February to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.564 million, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.
March building permits were originally reported as being up 0.8% at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.544 million.
Building permits are a precursor of building activity.

Global-View AFX Special 11:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
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Sofia Kaprikorn 11:24 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
just looking EURUSD & EURGBP side by side - can someone admit that the current EURUSD stregth is underpinned by the EURGBP strength?

or is it possible that some big players are front running US data by entering in EURGBP as a proxy?

shanghai bc 11:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 10:53 GMT April 25, 2007

That Mr.Wang is too optimistic on that front..In an unfortunate event of war thanks to some independence lovers,in10-14 days,there will not be anything worth left to defend in Taiwan..Will US defend a barron island at the cost of losing several aircraft-carriers and cutting off its trade with China..Highyl unlikely..It is always risky to depend on forigners's good will..

UK Alex 11:19 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:59 GMT April 25, 2007
Thanks PAR, I saw that. All is looking good.

London NYAM 11:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:36 GMT April 25, 2007
Were in a wierd one on this: There are arguments for strong and weak dollar reaction to the data whatever it is. The driver will probably be interest rate expectations, but one also has to consider strong figures imply a potentially stronger econ and soft landing. It will, I believe, be too murky to determine US yield direction, hence holding rates is the most hedged bet in the face of uncertainty. The source of movement will, I think, be outside the US as the directions there are more clear...esp the UK. imho anyway. But we will know soon enough. gl to you as I always always enjoy your contributions.

GVI john 11:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....

PAR 10:59 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
German econ min 2007 inflation at 2% .

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
DJ - Option related selling stalling the EURUSD ahead of all-time high..

Syd 10:53 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
TAIPEI (AP)--A senior Taiwanese official said Wednesday the island would have to fight alone for 10-14 days before the United States came to its aid in the event of an attack from rival China. In the simulation, no American intervention was envisioned.

Answering a question in the Taiwanese Legislature, Wang said Taiwan believes that the U.S. would intervene on its behalf if China attacked with impunity, but that such intervention might not be forthcoming if Taiwanese action provoked Beijing.

China has threatened to invade if the self-governing island makes its de facto independence permanent.

The two sides split amid civil war in 1949, and Beijing still regards Taiwan as part of its territory.

UK Alex 10:52 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
DJ German Govt Hikes 2007 GDP Outlook To +2.3% From +1.7%

UK Alex 10:47 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
US MARCH DURABLE GOODS: previous +1.7%; Reuters consensus forecast +2.5% (1330BST)

US MARCH NEW HOME SALES: previous 848,000; Reuters consensus forecast 888,000 (1500BST)

ina adhi 10:43 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
my order are 2.0079 sell on gbpusd, stop 2.0113 any suggest.... thx all

Budapest Z 10:36 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
could be...heard chatter that large semi offical offer has been soaking up bids, hence the slow grind and being a laggard as of last few days...i like eurgbp lower in coming weeks

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:36 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
NYAM //
hi - I also look at different timeframes and momentum seems strong for EUR & GBP - only thing I wonder is the US data - consensus is for better than last month - however since it is consesnus then it is already priced in... so maybe the way to new High in EURUSD is clear...

Plovdiv Gotin 10:35 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
London NYAM 10:28 GMT April 25, 2007
2.00150/175?

Sofia Kaprikorn 10:34 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
25/4/07  3:15  [USD] Preview: New Home Sales
[USD] The Commerce Department's new home sales report will be released 25 April at 1000 EDT/1400 GMT. We anticipate that sales will increase to 865K for the month.
After two consecutive months of falling purchasing activity, the new home series should see a net increase of 17K units to 865K for the month, which is below the three-month average below 925K. The problem, as we have stated with respect to the existing home sales sector, is not so much a function of activity but one of inventory problems and future downward pressure on pricing. The inventory levels in the new home series currently resides at 8.1 months, which for all intents and purposes has reached critical levels. Prices in the sector will have to see a further downward adjustment to bring existing stocks back to sustainable levels. Thus we do urge our clients to recognize that the macro activity in the sector will continue to mask the regional and sub regional problems. For example Miami-Dade county in Florida will have 25,800 new units arrive on the market over the next two years, which will cause local prices to adjust in a market where obtaining insurance due to potential severe weather related disruptions and state regulatory activity is becoming increasingly difficult. There will have to be a long period where supply in a select number of regions will have to dry up and building activity curtailed before the new housing sector can reach anything resembling equilibrium. IG

London NYAM 10:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
fwiw;my studies show that we should see cable above 2.0100 today.

UK Alex 10:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR 10:20 GMT April 25, 2007
The point is that yen is going nowhere until the $/yuan peg is lifted or yuan is revalued again.

Syd 10:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Has Spain's property bubble just burst? -
Spain, a whopping 96% of mortgages are on floating rates, rather than fixes - so every rise hurts almost every mortgage holder.

Rising interest rates, a hugely overvalued and highly speculative property market, and massive consumer debt - it doesn’t make for a pretty picture. And we’re not the only ones who think so.

Bernard Connolly of Banque AIG doesn’t pull any punches when he tells The Telegraph: “Spain is going to face the very direst of economic circumstances: a cycle of recession, deflation and widespread private sector default - a depression in fact. This stock market slide is not just a �correction’. It has a very, very long way to go.”

LINK

PAR 10:20 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Nikkei will only be able to rise as Dow if Japan like USA did normalises its monetary policy.

UK Alex 09:38 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
TOKYO (Nikkei)--China has become Japan's largest trading partner, surpassing the U.S. for the first time since the end of World War II, shows a preliminary report on trade statistics for fiscal 2006 released Wednesday by the Ministry of Finance.

Trade with China, excluding Hong Kong, rose 16.5% year on year to 25,427.6 billion yen, while that with the U.S. climbed 10.3% to 25,160.8 billion yen.

China has been the nation's largest trading partner since fiscal 2004 when Hong Kong is included.

Both exports to and imports from China hit all-time highs, supported by stronger exports of parts for Japanese manufacturers in China and greater imports of clothing and electronics.

Japan's global trade surplus grew 16.4% to 9,054 billion yen on strong exports of cars to the U.S. Surging crude oil prices worldwide pushed up the value of imports, but that was more than offset by export growth due to the weak yen.

The country's trade surplus with the U.S. grew 13.5% to 9,096 billion yen on rising exports of cars and electronic parts for semiconductors, the second-largest amount ever following the level recorded in fiscal 1985.

"For the U.S., trade deficits with China and the European Union are bigger than that with Japan, and therefore the figure is unlikely to have the same kind of impact seen at the time of fierce trade friction between the two countries," a Finance Ministry official said.

Japan's overall trade surplus in March rose 73.9% year on year to a record 1,633.5 billion yen.

Imports from China that month fell below the year-earlier level for the first time since April 2002, while exports expanded 15.1% to a record 1,119.8 billion yen. Meanwhile, Japan's current-account balance with the neighboring country moved into the black for the first time in nearly three years.

(The Nikkei Wednesday evening edition)

hk ab 09:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Kevin, your view on cad pls. I feel the BO will happen soon.to clear stops on both sides.

UK Alex 09:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR, 'insatiable appetite' sounds better.

Syd 09:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
IMF More Closely Watching Yen Carry Impact On Emerging Mkts Takashi Nakamichi
The International Monetary Fund is monitoring more closely the impact of yen-carry trades on asset markets in developing countries and might raise the issue in its annual talks with certain countries, IMF officials said.
The international lender is concerned that emerging markets aren't as big and well-equipped as advanced markets to handle sudden capital outflows that could ensue if investors rush out of those trades, they said.
The comments follow similar concern expressed by the IMF about carry trades in recent reports, including the World Economic Outlook, and signal growing international unease about the risks posed by the build up of these positions.
"We are watchful of how any such flows may be flowing in to emerging markets, since a reversal (of yen-carry trades) or volatility could have greater effects on these rather than more mature markets," Dan Citrin, deputy director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department, recently told Dow Jones Newswires via email.
The IMF's stance underscores how wary the international community has become about the magnitude of yen-carry trades and the impact that a potential unwinding of those positions could have on emerging markets.
Estimates among private-sector analysts of those trades vary widely. But some say there're as much as $1 trillion of yen-carry trade positions worldwide if borrowed yen and Japanese savings are combined. And they've warned that if economic shocks ignite a reversal in those money flows, that could deal a blow to emerging markets like India and Vietnam, whose recent prosperity is partly traceable to yen-funded investments.
IMF On Guard Against Yen-Carry Trade Unwinding
The IMF has previously signaled its concerns about a link between yen-carry trades and emerging markets, as well. In its global financial stability report issued earlier this month, the fund said the worldwide equity-price plunges and temporary yen surges seen in late February and early March "highlighted risks to emerging markets that are overly reliant on portfolio inflows."
"A volatility shock could lead to the rapid unwinding of carry trades," the report said. "The impact of such a volatility shock would have a significant effect on emerging markets."
The IMF made similar comments in its recent World Economic Outlook. Brazil, Hungary, South Africa, Turkey, and "some Asian economies" are among the developing nations luring yen-carry trades, the IMF said in the financial stability report. Private analysts say Japanese investors' buying through mutual funds is helping inflate stock prices in China, India, Vietnam and the Philippines.
The second IMF official also pointed to Vietnam's equity market as a suspected destination of yen-carry trade funds. The Southeast Asian nation's main stock index rocketed 145% in 2006, and although it has recently dropped sharply, the index still stands more than 20% higher it was at the start of the year. The IMF has had difficulty in determining which traders are using carry trades and where the funds are flowing, the official said. "There are few clear statistics."
IMF May Discuss Carry Trades With Emerging Markets
Many market participants say that over the past few years, global investors have increasingly borrowed cheap yen to snap up everything from New Zealand time deposits to U.S. bonds to emerging stocks to even European real estate.
This view is so widespread that traders blame all kinds of market swings on adjustments of yen-carry trades.
Still, Citrin said the fund is monitoring yen-carry trades under the framework of its regular surveillance activity, not through any new special entities.
"We are not doing any formal monitoring of so-called 'carry-trade' activities nor are we setting up a special panel whose sole purpose is to look at carry-trades," Citrin said. Also, yen-carry trades are "just one element" of the global financial markets, and "we should not get 'carried away' by focusing exclusively on one element," he said.

Yet, the global lender may raise the issue in two-party dialogues.

"During dialogues that are held under Article IV, we may have debates (about the matter) with the Bank of Japan, or New Zealand's central bank," the second IMF official said. "If we see a possibility that other countries besides New Zealand are being affected by those trades, similar discussions may be held (with them)."

Citrin also hinted at the possibility of IMF talks on the issue.

"To the extent that there are relevant policy considerations, they would be discussed with the relevant authorities in that context," he said.

Sofia Kaprikorn 09:19 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Purk //
there is different charting on different platform - however on mine there is a gap in EURUSD yesterday at the data release from 1.3585 - to 1.3602...
on the other platform the gap is not shown - however typically theese gaps are filled before the Initial move is resumed... so maybe you might be right about the pullback to 1.3620 before the High is challenged..

St. Annaland Bob 09:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 08:52 GMT April 25, 2007

be careful that looking closely on single grain of sand will not make you to lose the whole view of the field. happy trades

Como Perrie 09:12 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Talking purchasing parity and G7 and German concerns upon Yen undervaluations showing Germany's IFO too optimistic over time.


Is party over for nation's wine, cheese lovers

Home >Business

wines in March.Sohei Yamagata, who manages the store, said his company would try not to raise prices."Importers' profits will have to be kept low, though," he said.Prices for cheese, a product that goes well with wine, have followed suit.A company specializing in importing cheese...

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/business/20070424TDY04003.htm

Syd 09:11 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Will house seller packs help or hinder the buying process
LINK

PAR 09:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Italy braces for droughts, electricity blackouts. May have severe economic impact .

melbourne DC 09:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
pre data strength sapped post data momentum, but logical would expect the positive data plus us data fears to still support europe/usd. if not, a signal in itself.

Plovdiv Gotin 08:52 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
1.4200? According to my figures LTT from 1.2867 are 1.4086/1.4111.

St. Annaland Bob 08:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 08:38 GMT April 25, 2007

if taken, then SUPPORT level ... roughly, 132<>13700<>14200

Plovdiv Gotin 08:38 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 08:28 GMT April 25, 2007
U mean new Res. level?

Como Perrie 08:36 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
range of expectations was 0.6 to .9 analysits considering next UK Gdp readings into the 2.3 2.5 yoy ... now all turns upon the US durable goods later on for further check up of the US economy, which are expected at 2.4 from 1.7 pct previous. See you then

hk ab 08:35 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
bob//million thanks seem I have read that in future f as well. Thanks again.

Thye Netherlands Purk 08:34 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The loonie is in nomandsland now. It follows any move of the e/u at this point. I reckon that e/u is able to reach 1367777777 today. That will give the shorters a chance for 1117777777 i guess.
Interesting point in e/j here. 16230 is there above the market but also this 16118 thing....
Wonder what will comes first: 13620-13677 or other way around.... e/u come from a long way (13550) so take your pick...

Como Perrie 08:31 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
no big mover..some pips maybe as came in expectations basically

Como Perrie 08:29 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:25 GMT April 25, 2007

we will see.. this is a 26 years high hard to predict and deal with...btw the housing bubble might explode in UK be4 than US, as there seemingly only London is holding up, country collapased already - no buyers

St. Annaland Bob 08:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 08:26 GMT April 25, 2007

13720 is the number to watch for today as there is enough US data coming out to make 13720 the new support level

Plovdiv Gotin 08:26 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Bangladesh Wenel 07:56 GMT April 25, 2007
Indeed, but when 1.3648 begin act like Sup. euro cud go 1.3677 at least then 1.3701/06/20/65. GT.

Como Perrie 08:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Gold back into 689/90 looks wants to test the big long term resistance at 715

madrid mm 08:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Five Reasons to Think the Pound Will Get Stronger: Matthew Lynn - Click here

Syd 08:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
BEIJING (AP)--Five thousand people have been evacuated after a chlorine leak in northeast China, the state-run Xinhua News Agency said. It said the leak in the eastern part of Harbin, the capital of Heilongjiang province, occurred at 9 a.m. at a water plant. Xinhua quoted Zhao Changman, deputy chief of the county government, as saying 2,000 students and teachers in a nearby school and 3,000 residents were evacuated. Zhao said he didn't know if anyone had been hospitalized. Xinhua said firefighters were trying to cap the leak

Como Perrie 08:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Volatility triggers upon UK GDP could stay approx around 2.0065 and 2.0035 by thumb

Como Perrie 08:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
but will have to deal the eurgdp now upon the UK gdp. If comes withing expectations will stay yet so to see if we do go into .6830/40

Como Perrie 08:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
btw core positions am still as from beginning the week long eurgbp and long usdcad... not publishing stops as a rule, you know the fishy brokers around lurking

Kaunas DP 08:09 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
we start buying USD today - short eur/usd 1.3644

Como Perrie 08:08 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
btw madrim mm ..
do not get fooled by the short sighted pullback bouncing theories... so far you might do well if enough motivated, young and willing to be into the king of forex competition... but I do like to sleep at night so I work smaller many amounts in scaling mode in general and with very large stops..the higher the amount the tighter the stop the less you sleep imo

Como Perrie 08:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
madrid mm 08:02 GMT April 25, 2007

Not interested in buying properties abroad. Those I have are more than enough to manage.

Baltimore Zoltan 08:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
German Ifo business climate 108.6; expected 107.8; March 107.7 (CNBC)

Como Perrie 08:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
No big willing of moving new positions onto this IFO

madrid mm 08:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:55 GMT April 25, 2007

soon you will be able to buy a cheap flat in Spain for around 10 Euros 8-)

Como Perrie 07:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Not easy the seutp ahead of the coming hours, but interesting overall - have yet coupla things running but cutted out most for now

St. Annaland Bob 07:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Como Perrie 07:55 GMT April 25, 2007

the vacation will be for sure in USD based country ... lol ... happy and funny trades!

Bangladesh Wenel 07:56 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Plovdiv Gotin 07:50 GMT April 25, 2007
There is many economical data for today...and the historical highs.GL

Como Perrie 07:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
St. Annaland Bob 07:52 GMT April 25, 2007

:)))

suggest a vacation

St. Annaland Bob 07:52 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
FWIW ... many represent USD problem as too much USD are in circulation, lower USD makes more USD to be in circulation ... or, do I see that all wrongly?

CT Cris 07:52 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
gbp.usd
======
I bought @ 20030.

Plovdiv Gotin 07:50 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Bangladesh Wenel 07:18 GMT April 25, 2007
1.3451 is possible if 1.3638 act like Res. not like Sup. GL.

Melbourne Qindex 07:50 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.1172.

Istanbul SC 07:50 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Mr. Q.
Your inputs are highly appreciated. However I prefered to long usdcad with 1,1190 s/l
thnx and regards

Syd 07:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
MADRID (Dow Jones)--Shares of Spain's largest real estate and construction companies opened mixed Wednesday, following Tuesday's selloff on fears that the decade-long building boom, which has supported one of the best-performing eurozone economies, could be about to crack.Citigroup analysts said in a note to investors that construction companies such as Sacyr-Vallehermoso SA (SYV.MC) and Fomento de Construcciones y Contratas SA (FCC.MC), or FCC, are most exposed to a downturn in the Spanish housing market.

St. Annaland Bob 07:43 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ab, here it is and I hope Jay will not get mad on me:

shanghai bc 23:27 GMT April 3, 2007
GVI Jay 14:48 GMT April 3, 2007

I was thinking in terms of Euro 1.36 and Yen 120 at some point.Eur/Jpy 163..But Dollar weakness on all fronts may take Yen to 110 and Euro to 1.40 at some point this year too..So Eur/Jpy's upside potential is still in good shape at this stage..I do not believe the forex market can self-correct on long-term basis on Eur/Jpy front unless and until cb forces turn up with long sticks..

Como Perrie 07:43 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
btw UK GDP is expected little lower than previous

0.5 q/q 2.6 y/y

Melbourne Qindex 07:42 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
USD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are as follow :- ... 1.0991 // 1.1020* - 1.1058 - 1.1077 - 1.1096* - [1.1134] - 1.1172* - 1.1191 - 1.1211 - 1.1249* // 1.1277 ...

madrid mm 07:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 07:36 GMT April 25, 2007
is your platform on steroide ? 1.36777777 euro-usd ?
8-)

hk ab 07:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
bob, mind to tell us his combination? TIA.

madrid mm 07:40 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
BOSTON (Reuters) - Wealthy investors say they are no better than anyone else at finding the world's best hedge funds, loosely regulated portfolios that can enrich the people who run them and those who invest in them. Click here

The Netherlands Purk 07:36 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Closed one short e/u at 1367777777777, keeping the other for 13620000000000000000.
I guess the usd/chf leads the dance.....

Como Perrie 07:36 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ref PAR 07:33 GMT April 25, 2007
those workaholics might die for karochi soon :))

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:28 GMT April 25, 2007
many tks interesting research theirs

Melbourne Qindex 07:35 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Ä°stanbul SC 07:25 GMT - USD/CAD : The followings are still valid :-


Melbourne Qindex 06:29 GMT April 21, 2007
USD/CAD (Updated) : Eventually the market has entered into the extreme levels of 1.1040 - 1.1226. Projected resistant points are positioning at 1.1374 and 1.1412. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is able to trade below 1.1133. As shown in my weekly cycle charts the market has a good potential to tackle the level at 1.1166 - 1.1176.

Melbourne Qindex 08:48 GMT April 11, 2007
USD/CAD (Monthly Cycle) : ... As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1597. The odds are high that the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412 will be tackled. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1.1400 and the market may test the extreme trading range of 1.1040 - 1.1226 if the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the lower barrier at 1.1342 // 1.1412.

PAR 07:33 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
So Kampo will be hyperactive before going on holiday . A positive economic fundamental like a surging japanese trade surplus, or Toyota becoming the biggest car producer is easily countered by Kampo s unsatisfiable appetite for foreign currencies .

CANBERRA JD 07:32 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD, looking at the current short term trend on the 4hr chart. The price appears to be close to the top of the down trend channel. Will look for a break, sell at top of the channel for a move down 60 pips, with a tight stop. Hope my broker doesnt hate me that much....

Ref EUR/USD.. Sideways we go IMO. Even with the data coming up we should stick into a range for today.

GBP/USD, expecting USD gains on this pair even with a USD index crash prediction in the next weeks by economists.

usd/chf... Time to fly sunny time to fly.

Sofia Kaprikorn 07:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
DJ - Commerzbank sees IFO to ease below cons 107..

Como Perrie 07:26 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
where=were o.c.

PS good for reminding PAR, btw Kampo on vacation for the golden week

Ä°stanbul SC 07:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Dear Mr. Q.
Will you please share your magic numbers for usdcad?
tia for your reply
gl, gt

Como Perrie 07:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Yeap yesterday the pro wires where full of higher expectations from the German IFO. We are going to see so far

Syd 07:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
UK bank trader says new EUR/USD highs above 1.3670 are unlikely ahead of the 0800 GMT release of Ifo on the basis that nobody wants to be caught long at all-time highs, then see a below-forecast Ifo print trigger a sell-off that leaves them high and dry. Alternatively the trader says buying any pre-data dips toward 1.3630-20, with a stop below 1.3580 seems a safer bet, although he would look to lock in some profit just above 1.3670 as there is bound to be some post-high profit taking.

Gen dk 07:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Bangladesh Wenel 07:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Shorted eur/usd at 1.3645; S/L 1.3700; P/t 1,3450

NY tim 07:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
PAR 07:12 GMT April 25, 2007

so re EUR/USD - buy the rumor - sell the fact?

St. Annaland Bob 07:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
the Swiss real estate market looks like untouched pearl ... it's very logic that loads of money will start going that direction sooner then later ... compared to US and Europe and Swiss real estate market looks very, very cheap.

The Netherlands Purk 07:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Very good Par. Skinny Hein will pass on you this time!
PLOL

PAR 07:12 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
On the positive side , rumors that german IFO could surge to above 110. Germany doing excellent compared to the rest of Europe .

Como Perrie 07:11 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Morn

as you might be aware we do have Germany's IFO expected higher at 108

then UK Gdp half an hour later

at the US opening the Durable Goods datas

Yen was bought mid morning in Tokyo due perceptions of yen repat to start ahead of the Golden week, still It had no big effect due markowitzing and the neofaith trading model of apparent stability. So far...fine to me wanna bubble will bubble wanna crash will crash...just the same have a good day..

Melbourne Qindex 07:10 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : The odds are high that the market will tackle the projected barrier at 0.8377 - [0.8383].


Melbourne Qindex 23:55 GMT April 24, 2007
AUD/USD : The market was able to find support around the quantized level at 0.8235* and it is now trying to anchor itself at 0.8295*. The next quantized level is 0.8354*. The mid-point reference of 0.8295 and 0.8354 is 0.8324. The market rhythm of my weekly cycle is represented by 59 - 60 pips(i.e. 0.8235*, 0.8295*, 0.8354*, 0.8413* and 0.8472* are separated by a constant value).


Melbourne Qindex 02:16 GMT April 23, 2007
AUD/USD : the current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are :- 0.8206 - 0.8235* - 0.8250 - 0.8272 // 0.8295* - 0.8324 - 0.8339 - 0.8354* - [0.8383] - 0.8413* - 0.8428 - 0.8443 - 0.8472* // 0.8494 ...

The Netherlands Purk 07:07 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Well PAR, i trust that your next message wont be that YOU want to commit suicide, because so much negativity in your posts, you can not hold your deficit any longer. No offence but man you are negative!

St. Annaland Bob 07:06 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 07:05 GMT April 25, 2007

bc covered the issue greatly 3rd of April 2007 within GVI forum, good trades to you

hk ab 07:05 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
while euro has not broken the historical high, would like to know who has an opinion on the combination of dlr index 80?
1.4 eur 2.05 gbp 115 dlr/jpy? comments welcome

PAR 07:01 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan s March trade surplus widens to record . Italy to declare state of emergency next week due to lack of rain and continued dryness . Spains real estate bubble bursting .

madrid mm 06:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
cottih- ----- Scottish

madrid mm 06:56 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The cottih-Spanih-Belgium armada is coming ....
April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, Santander Central Hispano SA and Fortis offered 39 euros a share to buy ABN Amro Holding NV, sparking the biggest takeover battle in the financial-services industry.

Royal Bank offered 70 percent in cash and 30 percent in its shares, the Edinburgh-based lender said today in a Regulatory News Service statement. Royal Bank is seeking to trump the bid that ABN Amro agreed to accept from Barclays Plc on April 23. In a related deal, ABN Amro agreed to sell Chicago-based LaSalle Bank to Bank of America Corp.

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:52 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Purk // yes noticed how it is played in the pairs - first eur & gbp ticking higher and yen not moving - then they stall and yen along with its eur & gbp crosses advance up...

The Netherlands Purk 06:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Sofia Kaprikorn 05:58 GMT April 25, 2007
The Netherlands Purk 05:55 //

The e/j is in a ticking to the high mode K... Upside target is 16230 again....

hk ab 06:46 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
the dlrchf movement resembling the movement of dlr/cad. so not surprise to see it stop at the fig again.

The Netherlands Purk 06:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Shorted another e/u here at 13650. Maybe i will take 10 pips and reload later...
In total i will take 3. It is possible that we go right through the 13660-70 and 80.
I will put stop at 13712. I will get my chance to get out with profit one of these days...
If seen i will short the last one at the end of the runout time for MIB...

madrid mm 06:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Worth to remember that EUR/USDis aound the 2 year high of 1.3636 and will likely test 04 high of 1.3668 on the current momentum, all IMHO.

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
shorted again EURJPY 161.46 - just under the Upper trendline of the 2-4 hour chart triangle

madrid mm 06:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Highlights

Billions of Russian petrodollars are set to be invested in shares of international companies for the first time, boosting Russia's presence in financial markets. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told the FT the reserve fund would be invested in a conservative portfolio of government bonds - as the stabilisation fund is now. But the other fund could invest in higher risk assets, aimed at maximising returns.

Toyota has surpassed General Motors the world leader for the last 76 years.as the world's number one car company for the first 3 months.

UK Times: The strength of GBP weighed heavily on BP's dividend yesterday, cutting the spring payout to British investors by 2% and casting a pall over a weak set of Q1 profits.

ABC/Washington Post consumer comfort index in April week ended 22 down to from -5 to -7, its lowest in 2007 due to rising oil prices.

UK Telegraph: Fears of a property crash swept the Spanish stock market yesterday, sending shares of construction companies into free-fall, and hitting banks exposed to the mortgage market. Low interest rates set by the ECB have fuelled a housing boom since Spain swapped the peseta for the euro in 1999, but excess stimulus has now seriously distorted the economy.

BoS Gov/ ECB Miguel Fernandez Ordonez blamed the bubble on the wrong interest rates caused by euro membership.

Japan trade surplus for March came in +73.9%y/y to Y1,633.5bln, versus market expectation of +43.3%/ Y1,3458bln.

WSJ: Tomorrow, Citigroup is expected to win a contentious six-week campaign to buy control of Japanese brokerage house Nikko Cordial.

Taiwan Central Bank Vice Governor George Chou says Taiwan is considering setting up an investment holding company, like Singapore's Temasek Holdings, to manage portion of its FX reserves.

Quiet markets today with Australia and New Zealand on ANZAC day, with focus at the fixing still the much talked about huge French eurozone bonds and coupons hittin the market today.

The day started with large Japanese securities houses/ brokerages, and trust banks selling good amount of USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and pushing both lower, probably linked to the eurozone coupons. On the other hand, Japanese mega-city banks and regional banks have good go-to-bi Nakane fixing demand today, and ahead of next week Golden Week holiday next week - and thus ensuring 2-way interest at fixing.

USD/JPY edge up a touch as Fixing set at 118.54, but the weighed on fthe selling pushed USD/JPY lower to 118.32 lows. While downside still supported by talks of Japanese investors and importers demand.

On the topside, hearing talks of China, Asian offers capping ahead of 119.00, together with Japanese exporters. Bids at 118.00-20, stoploss on break of 118. EUR/JPY offers ahead of 161.80-162.00.

EUR off its 28-month highs of 1.3644 seen yesterday, but hearing talks of good selling from AsianCB/ China/ Russia, Sovereign ahead of 1.3650 options and more at 1.3670/ 1.3700, could be weighed on concerns over Spanish stocks markets crash. focus on German IFO.

USD/CHF talks of options bids at key 1.2000. GBP/USD hovering above 2.00, eye UK Q1 GDP, with good offers still at 2.0100.

AUD recovers more its post CPI loss to 0.8311 in quiet holiday thinned markets, as funds covered shorts AUD/USD, AUD/NZD. Focus on likely 25bps RBNZ rate hike tomorrow in rates to 7.75%.

Nikkei -189pts or 1.08% at 17,262.75. JGBs firmer on Nikkei rise, 10-yr yield -0.020% at 1.650%.

Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.32/118.59, EUR/USD 1.3619/1.3641, GBP/USD 2.0008/2.0036, USD/CHF 1.2010/1.2031, AUD/USD 0.8272/0.8311, NZD/USD 0.7428/0.7459.

Sofia Kaprikorn 06:17 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
usdjpy has Support at 118.22 - watching for a break to target the next S at 117.70 low..

St. Annaland Bob 06:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
mm, to make story short ... seems EUR needs 1.4xxx prints to check 1.32xx support ... as BC suggested, ECB and BOJ seen as the only to stop the EURJPY rocket ... but, when?!

madrid mm 06:10 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
lol Bob.

i read somewhere that if Spain kept the pesetas, interest rates would be higher , much higher than it is today, thank you Euro, Thank you Germany !! 8-)

St. Annaland Bob 06:08 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
mm, suitcases cause ownership on Spanish real estate to change hands at price 3-4 times higher then 2-3 years ago on the Spanish islands (the loser is the Spanish tax man, lol) ... Spanish with German accent is out, Spanish with Chinese accent is in ;)

madrid mm 06:03 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
thi NOK might be worth a look today fwiw
Today's key events gmt +2
09:30 Unemployment & Trade Balance, SEK
10:00 IFO, DEM/EUR
10:30 GDP, GBP
14:00 Rate announcement, Norges Bank
14:30 Durable goods, USD
16:00 New home sales, USD

madrid mm 06:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Bob, don t they do it already ? lol Chinese shops are mushrooming like never before 8-)

Sofia Kaprikorn 05:58 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The Netherlands Purk 05:55 //
hello - closed the EY short for some little gain - still short GY
- watching some Triangle patterns in EURJPY & GBPJPY 2 hour charts.. GLGT!

St. Annaland Bob 05:56 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
mm, the day when Spanish businessmen will import paella from China nears ... will that surprise you?

madrid mm 05:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Market Focus- Month-to-month volatility may cloud durable goods data, perhaps putting the focus on new home sales which, if they decline like yesterday's existing home sales, would heighten concern over the housing market.

The Netherlands Purk 05:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Well, i am short e/u at 13638, the long lasting figure that i am waiting for. I am waiting for 13620 to print. And it will... eventually...
Loonie: There where some fights yesterday in the 11207 zone. NN is on holiday so no buying interest....
Tried to pick some short in e/j but failed. 16118 for downside and the 16230 for upside.
KAPRIKORN: WATCH THE FLOWS AND THE TIMESCHEDULE.

madrid mm 05:54 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Bob, nothing surprises me anymore 8-)

St. Annaland Bob 05:46 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Changes in China by simple minded eyewitness

Louis Vuitton hires more security people to control the much growing lines to enter the expending shops (by size). you can see people fighting on place in the very long rows. by the way, there was no sale or something similar, just very hot people willing to spend money. amazing!

madrid mm 05:33 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Subprime `Liar Loans' Fuel Housing Bust With $1 Billion Fraud

By Bob Ivry

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- Cheating on mortgage applications is so widespread and so seldom punished that it's fueling an increase in foreclosures that will prolong the housing slump, said Robert W. Russell, counsel to the director of the Office of Thrift Supervision, which oversees savings and loans.
Click here

madrid mm 05:31 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
GM FX JEdi

So is this of the end of the world from Spain real estate ? 8-)

Good old AUSSIE $ !!!

Sofia
madrid mm 06:16 GMT April 24, 2007
fwiw
The Golden Week is a collection of four national holidays within seven days. In combination with well placed weekends, the Golden Week becomes one of Japan's three busiest holiday seasons, besides New Year and the Obon week.

Trains, airports and sightseeing spots get very crowded during Golden Week, and accommodation in tourist areas can get booked out well in advance.

The national holidays making up the Golden Week are:
April 29
Showa Day (Showa no hi):
April 29 is the birthday of former Emperor Showa, who died in the year 1989. Until 2006, Greenery Day (see May 4) used to be celebrated on this day.

May 3
Constitution Day (Kenpo kinenbi):
On this day in 1947, the new post war constitution was put into effect.

May 4
Greenery Day (Midori no hi):
Until 2006, Greenery Day used to be celebrated on April 29, the birthday of former Emperor Showa. The day is dedicated to the environment and nature, because the emperor loved plants and nature. Before being declared Greenery Day, May 4 used to be a national holiday due to a law, which declares a day, that falls between two national holidays, a national holiday.

May 5
Children's Day (Kodomo no hi):
The Boy's Festival (Tango no Sekku) is celebrated on this day. Families pray for the health and future success of their sons by hanging up carp streamers and displaying samurai dolls, both symbolizing strength, power and success in life. The Girl's Festival, by the way, is celebrated on March 3.

London O Wilde 05:31 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
sad bunch of blokes you've managed to collect here GVI.

once it had interest. Where oh where is Noody Girl!

Perth Randall El 05:27 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
texasbp 05:21 GMT April 25, 2007

Please, any friend of mine can call me Randy. From one beginner to another let me welcome you as well. I do not have top $ but fortunate to have plenty for my needs.

texasbp 05:21 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ok Randall ..
so you are a beginner and have top $. Dont blame you for that. Welcome to forex world.

Perth Randall El 05:13 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
texasbp- My name is Randall El not Perth

If market crash we quick to reverse for bigger move. I don't have mini acct. Is it bad that some "only" trade that?

Some beginners have a lot of $ and some do not. That does not matter. Anyone can fail just like professional fund Amaranth or a tiny rookie Cris.

Do you only trade mini or I suppose we test size of Texas rodeo belt buckles and cowboy hat for supremacy?

texasbp 04:58 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
and i can see that you only trade mini?

texasbp 04:57 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
perth:

good technique, but what if the market crash ?
You will wipe out your account

Perth Randall El 04:38 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Beginner luck. Me want to say buy now 2.0025

Perth Randall El 04:37 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
I will do this too

gbp.usd
==========
Buy now2.025. If decline buy more every 40 pips.

USA Zeus 04:25 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
The shake-in, shake-out was thought of last week as the GBP/USD when the sky looked to be the limit I was looking for the test back to 2.0. At the same time AUD/USD became a sell on blip opp. Now after the shakes and jitters see fresh action on the horizon.

Sofia mik 04:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Toyota make Toyota bank in Russia-:interfax

Sofia mik 04:05 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Hallo Asia ,g morning Europe,
long dollcfr 2014
hk ab; haw many days is Japan holiday pls,

HK [email protected] 04:02 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Yen Gains on Speculation Investors Repatriating Bond Earnings

By Stanley White and Ron Harui

April 25 (Bloomberg) -- The yen advanced for a third day against the euro on speculation Japanese investors will bring home funds invested in European bonds.

France pays 19.5 billion euros ($26.6 billion) in coupon and principal on its government debt today, some of which may go to Japanese investors. The yen gained against 15 of 16 most- actively traded currencies speculation the Bank of Japan's semi- annual economic outlook, due April 27, will signal plans to raise interest rates.

``There's talk that Japanese investors are repatriating some of the proceeds from the French bond payments,'' said Yuji Saito, a senior currency dealer at Societe Generale in Tokyo. ``It's a positive for the yen,'' which may rise to 161.00 per euro and 118.00 versus the dollar today, he said.

more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601014&sid=a8pwJuEBbqwE&refer=funds

hk ab 03:51 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
zeus, mkt is waiting sth to trigger a massive sell off of usd followed by retracment........shakeout then shake in right? LOL....

texasbp 03:48 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
does anyone got a view on cable pls?

Thank you.

USA Zeus 03:16 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ab- Am still building and think we'll have a shot below 1.12

hk ab 03:01 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
zeus, am interested to construct the dlr/cad long positions now. do you see current level good enough or you anticipate a lower level to add to your core? TIA.

Syd 02:44 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
King says BoE not to blame for inflation

Euro helps topple Spanish property

hk ab 02:43 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
thanks CB

USA Zeus 02:42 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
ab- Right now I see oil in a swing trading mode so no st price objectives.

Halifax CB 02:41 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
hk ab 02:23 GMT April 25, 2007
Don't know, but it's riding alonga nice set of narrow rails at about 15-20 pips a day, down... There is a minor resistance from last year at 1.1170, or there abouts....

hk ab 02:28 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
zeus, what's your crude forecast?
?

hk ab 02:23 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
can someone tell the next station of dlrcad?

Syd 02:14 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Excessive liquidity and potential inflation is making monetary policy for China central bank more challenging, says Yi Gang, assistant governor of the People's Bank of China; remarks carried on central bank-run Financial News. China's money supply growth continually strong, with M2 +17.27% at end-March, while CNY1.42 trillion in new CNY loans extended in 1Q, equivalent to 45% of CNY3.18 trillion in loans extended through 2006. Yi earlier said China will boost role of interest rates in controlling rapid growth in economy, asset prices

USA Zeus 02:11 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
day = daily

USA Zeus 02:10 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
1.1248 is GV's day magically amused sum divided by 5 for USD/CAD.

hk ab 02:01 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
though it becomes a bit old now, fwiw, 1.1236 is today entry trial of dlr/cad short.

USA Zeus 01:58 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Market shifted. New fulcrum balance point for USD/CAD = Zeus's cost 1.1217. MIB's must be on to me again.

USA Zeus 01:30 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Feels like phantom offers in USD/CAD- Any attempt to buy it cheap before the rise.

Dallas GEP 01:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Have a 237.40 SELL order waiting on gbp/jpy. If that order is not hit in next 4 hours it probably won't be IMO.

Sydney ACC 01:15 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Syd 00:55 GMT April 25, 2007
I'd take care UBS have been calling for a firmer JPY for almost the last twelve months even when we were proiceeding to and above 120.00.

Syd 00:55 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Funded Carry Fatigue May Set In - UBS
Price action in JPY-funded carry trades is looking tired and vulnerable to disappointment, says UBS, with softer inflation data in key high-yielding economy (Australia) putting dent in sentiment; "also, Japan has a raft of key data on Friday with the BOJ's semiannual outlook report also due, ahead of next week's Golden Week holidays. As such, we may be seeing stress on carry trades as positions are lightened ahead of this key event risk." Is scope for renewed pressure on carry trades, with some combination of volatility in Japan rate expectations, pickup in FX volatility and/or renewed risk aversion expected to damage carry positions in coming months. As such, keeps 3-month USD/JPY target of 116

London NYAM 00:50 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
the yen looks like its going to take another stab at the 118.20 area as well.

London NYAM 00:22 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
gbpjpy looking heavy. If it cant hold above 237.00 figure there is little in the way until 236.00 and then the neckline at 235.50-60. Could be a sign of something disolving....

Syd 00:18 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Unwinding of carry trades in high-yielding currencies like the GBP as well as AUD, NZD after Tuesday's soft Australian inflation report shows how ready carry traders are to head for the door on news impacting rate differentials. But in an increasingly familiar pattern, investors reversed unwind shortly after, using CPI data to take profits rather than as sign that carry trades less profitable. Given market's sensitivity, strategy likely to continue, analysts say, so carry positions may be in store for additional mini unwinds and rewinds in coming months. Market uncertain over U.S. economy, Fed policy, staying power of carry trades; "Price action in the yen-funded carry trades is looking tired and vulnerable to disappointment," says Daniel Katzive at UBS; "We continue to see scope for renewed pressure on carry trades" due to "some combination of volatility in Japan rate expectations, a pick up in currency market volatility, and/or renewed financial market risk aversion" in coming months.
UBS

Syd 00:17 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Strong EUR/USD sell orders related to options defense lined up just below 1.3650, says Singapore dealer. Dow Jones technical analysis shows EUR/USD near-term resistance at 1.3643 (hourly chart), then 1.3667 (December 2004 high); support at 1.3612, then 1.3585.

Melbourne Qindex 00:06 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
AUD/USD : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above 0.8316.


Melbourne Qindex 03:38 GMT April 17, 2007
AUD/USD (Updated) : As shown in my monthly cycle charts the market is trying to tackle the monthly cycle normal upper limit at 0.8377, if it fails to hold the next target is the extreme level at 0.8560. On the other hand speculative selling pressure will increase if the market retreats and penetrates through 0.8316.

Syd 00:04 GMT April 25, 2007 Reply   
Japan's March merchandise trade surplus expanded by a much faster-than-expected rate, rising 73.9% from a year earlier to Y1.633 trillion, indicating that exports will support growth in the first quarter, the Finance Ministry Finance said Wednesday.

The surplus comes after January's unexpected shrinkage in the deficit and February's surplus.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones and Nikkei estimated on average the surplus would come to Y1.360 trillion in March, expanding 44.8% on year.

Japan's trade surplus with the U.S. increased 1.4% to Y805.29 billion in March from a year earlier, the ministry said, while trade with China surprisingly turned into a surplus of Y12.33B.