Syd 23:49 GMT April 26, 2007
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Spanish properties are now bargains in the sun
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2007/04/26/wspain26.xml
Severin Zyen 23:46 GMT April 26, 2007
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look to me Japan have much infleshion. they just no buying much of it.
Norway e.s 23:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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RIC fxq 23:23
Thank you wery much! Hawe futures at my platform to, but hawe not traded and dont know all abot howe it funchen(is it a litle lake Amarican options?) And if i understand god i can find volum there? If you trade options i wod be gratful if you can explane to me if a vanila option is one normal Amarican opton(seems like my broker are not sure)
GL/GT
UK Alex 23:37 GMT April 26, 2007
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Japan Mar Overall CPI -0.1% On Yr; +0.3% On Mo
Syd 23:36 GMT April 26, 2007
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Fed's Yellen: Upside Risks To Inflation Outlook Have Grown
A top official of the U.S. Federal Reserve has grown more concerned over the inflation outlook, but stopped short of saying the situation requires a central bank rate hike to quell price pressures.
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said Thursday that "the inflation situation remains uncertain and, in particular, there are upside risks to my outlook, especially having to do with the situation in labor markets."
Syd 23:33 GMT April 26, 2007
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Yellen: Best Stance For Fed Now Is 'Watchful Waiting'
Yellen: Tight Labor Mkts Fueling Worry Over Inflation
Yellen: Upside Risks To Inflation Outlook Have Grown
Syd 23:26 GMT April 26, 2007
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FX Asia: NZ Dlr Muted Rally May Signal Carry Trade Lethargy
Patrick Bennett
An only muted rally in the New Zealand dollar despite a hike in the official cash rate and a warning from the central bank that the currency is unjustifiably strong, adds to caution that carry trades may be reaching a limit.
Though the warning by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is unlikely to lead to market intervention by the central bank in the short term, the remote prospect of action will have investors questioning how much further the currency can rise.
That questioning would add to what appears to be a recent stalling of carry trades, not just in the New Zealand dollar but in other favored currencies.
Major carry-trade pairs, including the Australian and New Zealand dollars against the Japanese yen, reached multiyear highs last week, but there is a growing sense among both traders and analysts that these trades may be reaching some near-term exhaustion. For the New Zealand dollar, the latest interest rate hike from the RBNZ boosted the interest-rate differential between the local currency and lower yielding currencies such as the yen.
But the kiwi, as the currency is known, was whipped around in choppy trading because of the central bank's warning that the currency is too strong.
"The exchange rate is now at levels that are both exceptional by historical standards, and unjustified on the basis of medium-term fundamentals," the RBNZ said.
Another factor that may slow the advance of carry trades is the prospect that as bearishness toward the U.S. dollar intensifies, investors will increasingly look to currencies such as the Japanese yen that are considered undervalued.
A rise in the yen alongside a slower pace of appreciation of currencies such as the Australian and New Zealand dollar would contribute to a slower pace of gains for carry positions, making them less attractive.
"We continue to see scope for renewed pressure on carry trades, with some combination of volatility in Japan rate expectations, a pick up in foreign exchange market volatility, and/or renewed financial market risk aversion expected to damage carry positions again at some stage in coming months," said UBS's Davies.
RIC fxq 23:23 GMT April 26, 2007
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that was based on CME (Chicago) futures but also from genral market talk seen over the years. EURUSD is decidedly the volume leadr now though.
Norway e.s 23:19 GMT April 26, 2007
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RIC fxq 23:12
Hi, you hawe a plase to monitore volum? It is one of the indicators i miss from sthoc trading,and i hawe serch for it much plases.
GL/GT
RIC fxq 23:12 GMT April 26, 2007
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fairfield JC 23:04 GMT
only in recent years, prior to perhaps 2002/3 USD was that key vs JPY. Volume is still there, just not the volatility, which was laso not true in years gone by. Old man talking here - :)
fairfield JC 23:04 GMT April 26, 2007
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RIC fxq
I hope the usd/jpy follows closely. It seems that it really hasnt had the liquidity these days as the e/y or g/y. I know that it never really has moved as much as them but especially these days. But it definately has been leading the both of them in whatever direction. I still see a large USD gain across the board continuing. GL GT
Syd 23:03 GMT April 26, 2007
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should read =seems to be
Syd 23:02 GMT April 26, 2007
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UK Alex 22:57 GMT April 26 yes definitly, seem to have a few things in the wind also helping the USD to turn
fairfield JC 22:59 GMT April 26, 2007
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I hope the usd/jpy follows closely. It seems that it really hasnt had the liquidity these days as the e/y or g/y. I know that it never really has moved as much as them but especially these days. But it definately has been leading the both of them in whatever direction. I still see a large USD gain across the board continuing. GL GT
Norway e.s 22:58 GMT April 26, 2007
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Maby i am wrong,but seems to me that us /jpy have been a god indikator to us strenght latly viuews? PAR, gratulations whit us/jpy,jour contacts in Japan seems to be good!
GL/GT
UK Alex 22:57 GMT April 26, 2007
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Syd 22:56 GMT April 26, 2007
A nicely coordinated exit plan. :-))
Syd 22:56 GMT April 26, 2007
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Talk RBNZ Had Checked FX Rates Hurt NZD - ANZ
Rumors that RBNZ had checked FX rates in the market overnight saw NZD slip through short-term support levels, says ANZ Bank in report; adds while RBNZ's statement yesterday met 2 of 4 intervention criteria, doesn't think actual action by central bank imminent. "Although most analysts believe intervention is unlikely, the market appears to have heeded the warning." Says ultimately, NZD will be driven by domestic data, fortunes of USD - factors which RBNZ has no control over.
Syd 22:54 GMT April 26, 2007
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USD strength and slightly lower commodity prices weighed on AUD/USD pushing it down to around 0.8270 from 0.8332 in London, says John Kyriakopoulos, senior currency strategist at NabCapital. A further modest pullback is on the cards due to narrowing of Australia/U.S. 2-year bond spread to 148 bps from 163 this week. 0.8050/0.8100 will limit slide for now
OTTAWA mjw 22:35 GMT April 26, 2007
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sorry , the year 1998...
RIC fxq 22:34 GMT April 26, 2007
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fairfield JC 22:26 GMT
short usdjpy personally - small from today at the moment and a bit in the red - looking for a decent downdraft here as well.
fairfield JC 22:33 GMT April 26, 2007
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Thank you for the information GVI...
OTTAWA mjw 22:33 GMT April 26, 2007
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hello all,
would anyone have historic high for NZD/USD , my chart goes to 1998 ... thanks.
GVI john 22:28 GMT April 26, 2007
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from GVI earlier Thursday...
On Friday, Japan will see a slew of data ahead of the Golden Week holidays next week. They include: February retail sales, February Nationwide CPI (see -0.2% y/y vs. -0.2%), February unemployment and preliminary February industrial output. The BOJ will also hold a one-day policy meeting. No policy change is expected. And the BOJ monthly report will be closely followed as well for any changes in the official outlook for the economy.
RE BOJ tomorrow. We are sticking to our view that rates will not be hiked BEFORE August. Whether the BOJ hikes as early as in August (post-July Upper House elections) remains to be seen...
CPI due Friday could be flat to negative y/y. Core and headline CPI has been running BELOW the BOJ target rate floor..
fairfield JC 22:26 GMT April 26, 2007
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Who here is on the E/Y wagon short? Cause I think it is going to be a Doozy of a fall.... GL GT
UK Alex 22:13 GMT April 26, 2007
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Hard to disagree with you on this occasion PAR.
PAR 21:58 GMT April 26, 2007
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Still cannot understand japanese deflation. Japan imports all commodities. Higher oil, sharply higher base metals, higher preciuos metals, sharply higher food commodities, on top of that a sharply weakening yen . You need to have a beautifull mind to believe this fairytail of japanese deflation .
ibadan HA 21:48 GMT April 26, 2007
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do u think cable will go long this morning
ibadan HA 21:33 GMT April 26, 2007
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Am new in forex Trading can anybody voluteer to send me trade signal
Syd 21:19 GMT April 26, 2007
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Funny was thinking exactly the same thing :-))
Dublin Flip 18:23 GMT April 26, 2007
Still we can't blame Junior. We saw him dancing on telly last night. I thought it ironic. We are mourning Boris Yeltsin and his spirit was there dancing on the tube for us-LOL
GVI john 21:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
AUD/USD
GBP/JPY
GBP/CHF
USD/CAD
CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD USD/CAD AUD/USD EUR/JPY
1900GMT 1.3602 119.58 1.2079 1.9912 1.1207 0.8266 162.65
High 1.3655 119.67 1.2100 2.0059 1.1225 0.8354 162.80
Low 1.3583 118.54 1.2032 1.9893 1.1146 0.8249 161.67
04/26/2007
Simple mva basis => 04/26/2007
5 day 1.3607 118.86 1.2064 1.9995 1.1205 0.8314 161.73
10 day 1.3586 119.02 1.2080 1.9987 1.1258 0.8329 161.56
20 day 1.3488 118.90 1.2135 1.9852 1.1381 0.8258 160.31
50 day 1.3328 118.40 1.2184 1.9641 1.1559 0.8051 157.79
100 day 1.3187 119.14 1.2270 1.9616 1.1630 0.7937 157.08
200 day 1.2992 118.08 1.2331 1.9285 1.1450 0.7785 153.43
GVI john 21:17 GMT April 26, 2007
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....
Lahore FM 20:22 GMT April 26, 2007
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jkt-aye 20:18 GMT April 26, 2007
it has to with jpy charts.think it is just thr right time.at times it is surreal rather than plainly logical.
LKWD JJ 20:22 GMT April 26, 2007
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what would trigger that, yen strength , weak gdp, or both? could be a 1 2 punch if that happens.
USA BAY 20:22 GMT April 26, 2007
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LAHORE FM,
Got to agree with AYE, e/j is different and I think we may see 164/165 soon, so why build now. TIA
Makassar Alimin 20:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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i am in short usdjpy 119.57, this is a better chance for me after crappy position around 118.90 which didnt work quite well last time
jkt-aye 20:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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FM...thanks.
imo, from technical basis, current situation on EJ is different with usdcad when it's on 1.14/1.15 area. so why should start to build it now (EJ) ? tia
Lahore FM 20:15 GMT April 26, 2007
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LKWD JJ 20:13 GMT April 26, 2007
1.9890 holds JJ,if we don't have carry unwind start afresh tomm.
LKWD JJ 20:13 GMT April 26, 2007
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lahore fm whats your take on cable? will 19890 hold or have we seen the last of $2 cable? my incling is the former but need the will to be a buyer here or a bit lower. gl & gt
Lahore FM 20:11 GMT April 26, 2007
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HOU rj 20:04 GMT April 26, 2007
quite get that rj,you mean the Herd's read of course shud not be working and that major players do manipulate chart to their own ends.quite agree the reading shud be from one's own view and from the devil's advocate standpoint as well.
AZUSA 4x-ed 20:11 GMT April 26, 2007
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Monthly R2=162.57/ Daily R3=162.70/ Mtl JP R=162.75. I know who to trust next time ;-)
USA BAY 20:10 GMT April 26, 2007
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LAHORE FM,
Yes I was thinking the same eur/gbp at 6865, the daily is looking bullish but the hourlies are o/b. Perhaps GEP can throw some light to it. TIA
Lahore FM 20:09 GMT April 26, 2007
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jkt-aye 19:58 GMT April 26, 2007
yep aye,many names to it,Zeus,block build is one.
USA BAY 20:07 GMT April 26, 2007
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LAHORE FM,
Thanks so much
__________________________________
RIC FXQ,
Thanks and no problem.
Lahore FM 20:06 GMT April 26, 2007
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GEP if you are around,doesn't eurgbp look rather solid for 0.6860 rather than the range scenario?tia
HOU rj 20:04 GMT April 26, 2007
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i THINK U GUYS DID NOT UNDERSTOOD
It is not suffient enough u read u r charts
we need to read the charts how others read
gl and gt for every body I am tired am going
HOU rj 20:01 GMT April 26, 2007
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Do anybody thinks cable go beyond 9960
This all manipulated
We need to start thinking as if we are one of them
We also need to read the charts
HOW THE CROWD READS
RIC fxq 20:01 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA BAY 19:38 GMT
sorry I gave`u NZDUSD my bad.
LKWD JJ 19:59 GMT April 26, 2007
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selling $y here @62.
jkt-aye 19:58 GMT April 26, 2007
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RJ/FM, is it a kind of Zeus's "cad block build" ?
Lahore FM 19:57 GMT April 26, 2007
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Bay it is 1.9492 from march 8th.
RIC fxq 19:55 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA BAY 19:38 GMT
my platform shows 7492 on 4/18.
USA BAY 19:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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LAHORE FM,
I don't have the high for 2007 on the eur/nzd pair. Do you by any chance happen to have the high for this year. Tia
HOU rj 19:35 GMT April 26, 2007
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Lahore FM
Touch wood
Lahore FM 19:32 GMT April 26, 2007
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HOU rj 19:24 GMT April 26, 2007
good trades rj.am in with you.
HOU rj 19:24 GMT April 26, 2007
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This is long term trade
if the market goes against me I will be scalping in and out to make good the premium payable to the broker
HOU rj 19:14 GMT April 26, 2007
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added some shorts here on e/j and willing and ready to hold and add more up to 166/67
PAR 19:08 GMT April 26, 2007
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Dont they all eat Sushi which with the declining fish prices should be definitely be deflationary . Lol.
AZUSA 4x-ed 19:04 GMT April 26, 2007
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Anecdotal stuff… “We hear from a reader in Japan that the Japan Food Service Association reports stunningly high revenues for restaurants, with high-class restaurants seeing a 14% rise in revenues in March for the third month in a row. Even fast food is up 7.1%. This is a back-of-the-envelope estimate of the true state of domestic demand. The government keeps promising that domestic demand is going to catch up and become robust (feeding inflation), but then the actual numbers are modest to disappointing. The restaurant story indicates that consumer optimism is higher than we thought. The point is that we should be watching out for a surprise in the data that will trigger expectations of a faster rate rising process than most analysts see today (one in Sept or Oct and that’s it).”
Perth Randall El 19:03 GMT April 26, 2007
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RIC fxq 19:01 GMT April 26, 2007
What is this political forum? I am only observing the nincompoop comments here on this forum.
Understand- bibi
RIC fxq 19:01 GMT April 26, 2007
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Perth Randall El 18:56 GMT
take it to the Politcal forum if you are going to rant.
HOU rj 18:56 GMT April 26, 2007
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jpy data is leaked or what / or is it the market going to the maximum risk level
Perth Randall El 18:56 GMT April 26, 2007
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I like to see here how so many so mad at US and their President Bush for all the prosperity they bring to the world.
Pathetic and weak attacks "Oh I see him smiling and dancing on tv last night." Am sure he is glad that you cared enough to take the time to watch.
Dumb dumbs with communist minds don't realize that the President does not make business great in democracy- the smart business people do. That is why the US is the most powerful nation- it's the free people not some rediculous politician like worthless communists.
Me thinks those stinky thumbs are because they were short the mighty US companies as their index goes up and up. Keep laughing and playing silly games as you fight prosperity.
Sofia mik 18:52 GMT April 26, 2007
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dc CB
I m usd bul. usd/cad 1.40 , usd/chf 1.40 cad/chf 1;1
cruel mathamatics on fx
Sofia mik 18:51 GMT April 26, 2007
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dc CB
I m usd bul. usd/cad 1.40 , usd/chf 1.40 cad/chf 1;1
cruel mathamatics on fx
USA BAY 18:45 GMT April 26, 2007
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Is BOJ rate hike decision today?? tia
USA BAY 18:34 GMT April 26, 2007
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HALIFAX CB,
Keeping fingers crossed. I may be wrong but looking at the weekly USD index, the charts shows a bullish divergence setup, so was wondering if dollar will recover but as for Eur/usd 1.40 is a strong possibility. Thanks
Halifax CB 18:28 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA BAY - you might just get your wish - looking at the charts over the last year or so, we are in a move very similar to the AUD/$ move of March/April 2006, only about 3 weeks earlier this time. Curious....
AZUSA 4x-ed 18:24 GMT April 26, 2007
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PAR, perhaps there's room for further yen weakness (nothing wrong with letting 'losses' run). However, I would think there's a need to secure some profits ahead of the data and the Golden Week. imho
Dublin Flip 18:23 GMT April 26, 2007
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and Junior is just dumb enough to believe him PAR.
Japan's trade surplus doubled last month Y on Y didn't it?
Still we can't blame Junior. We saw him dancing on telly last night. I thought it ironic. We are mourning Boris Yeltsin and his spirit was there dancing on the tube for us-LOL
PAR 18:16 GMT April 26, 2007
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Strong japanese leader Abe in washington to explain to Bush how bad the japanese economy really is, hence yen weakness .
dc CB 18:09 GMT April 26, 2007
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Sofia mik
ps: ps...
3M, formerly known as Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing Company, was founded in 1902. The company is based in St. Paul, Minnesota.
dc CB 18:02 GMT April 26, 2007
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Sofia mik 17:04 GMT April 26, 2007
dc CB 16:57 GMT April 26, 2007
where? in Eu? in Italy,Germany ?
3M reported earnings today. Indicated sales to China, Russia, and India rose 35%, 44%, and 25% respectively. Opening new plants in India, Korea, China, and Russia and closing plants in the U.S.
USA BAY 18:01 GMT April 26, 2007
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HALIFAX CB,
At the moment I am flat. Today is the end of the weak. So may stay in the sideline and see what happens next week. GT/GL
Halifax CB 17:53 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA BAY 17:43 GMT April 26, 2007
I'm not :(
But GL!
NY tim 17:47 GMT April 26, 2007
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Dallas GEP 13:13 GMT April 26, 2007
6828 short on eur/gbp now
can you share the TP incase this pos is till open - TIA
USA BAY 17:43 GMT April 26, 2007
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HALIFAX CB,
Thanks a lot. I am hoping for a dollar rally.
Halifax CB 17:36 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA BAY 16:45 GMT April 26, 2007
The reversal in aud/usd and nzd/usd is it for real or just some correction before targeting higher. can anyone please comment. thanks
I imagine it's just clearing speculative positions prior to the Golden Week in Japan ($ has been bought across most ccy's today, and it started last night around 2 am GMT). If that's true, one might expect more $ buying tonight.....Just a guess.
HK Kevin 17:21 GMT April 26, 2007
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hk ab 17:01 GMT, EUR/JPY still want 164.20-60 in monthly chart. 2 more day to watch for Apr
HK Kevin 17:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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hk ab 17:01 GMT, think it is due to E/Y and G/J
lkwd jj 17:05 GMT April 26, 2007
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heres for you mike
lkwd jj 16:01 GMT April 25, 2007
zues make sure cad doesnt become cadaver!
============================
what i meant was , i hope it doesnt kill you as you keep buying as its falling. no harm no foul
Sofia mik 17:04 GMT April 26, 2007
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dc CB 16:57 GMT April 26, 2007
I don’t have to hire one more person in the U.S.,” says Appleton. “I don’t have to invest one more dollar here – and we’ll be just fine
where? in Eu? in Italy,Germany ?
ready for banhrupcy at year or two.
glgt
hk ab 17:01 GMT April 26, 2007
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the resilience of euro and chf to drop against usd may tell sth....
dc CB 16:57 GMT April 26, 2007
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Mtl JP 16:41 GMT April 26, 2007
from Business Week April 23rd issue.
Corporate America is still spending big time, just increasingly outside the U.S. ...................virtually every major company is trying to reduce costs and get closer to fast-growing markets by spreading manufacturing operations and research facilities around the world. As a result, a U.S.-centric view of capital spending, says Steven R. Appleton, CEO of Micron, is “almost meaningless.”
“I don’t have to hire one more person in the U.S.,” says Appleton. “I don’t have to invest one more dollar here – and we’ll be just fine”
Lahore FM 16:54 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA BAY 16:51 GMT April 26, 2007
caught it at 1.8270 and 1.8320 around rbnz time.it has bottomed completely.any dip to 1.8350 good opportunity for 1.8500.have closed all at 8450 will reload later.gtgl.
USA BAY 16:51 GMT April 26, 2007
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LAHORE FM,
Can you please comment on eur/nzd please. thanks
USA BAY 16:45 GMT April 26, 2007
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The reversal in aud/usd and nzd/usd is it for real or just some correction before targeting higher. can anyone please comment. thanks
Mtl JP 16:41 GMT April 26, 2007
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hk ab 15:01, another point: UK Alex 15:03 raises a Q: IF American buzinessmen focus their investments overseas to generate profits why should foreigners invest in the US ?
Mtl JP 16:27 GMT April 26, 2007
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hk ab 15:01 GMT / from gvi forum
GVI john 16:08 GMT April 26, 2007
New table. Gives you an idea what markets expect. Compare target to 1mo cash rates after you add in a 6-7bp liquidity premium. In the case of CHF use 3mo.
tgt 1mo 2mo 3mo Mkt Says:
US 5.25% 5.32 5.34 5.36 Nothing soon
UK 5.25% 5.53 5.62 5.71 May hike
EUR 3.75% 3.86 3.93 4.01 June hike
JPY 0.50% 0.63 0.65 0.67 Nothing soon
CHF 2.25% 2.20 2.27 2.34 Risk of june hike
CAD BA 4.25% 4.34 4.33 4.34 Nothing soon
AUD 6.25% 6.34 6.37 6.39 Nothing soon
slice and dice as you will, market is all about expectations. And the CBs know it. That is why they keep yakking about vigillance. They are vigillant about any dragging or drifting of what they refer to as "anchored". A while ago BoC Dodge revealed that "all of us CB ankers worry that risk spreads appear to be very narrow". As they should.
moscow mike 16:22 GMT April 26, 2007
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moscow mike 12:39 GMT April 26, 2007
...
Simple chart reading suggests that 1.1210 Shall provide some initial resistance to the loonie.
========================
The above is still valid. It is break or make level in my model.
Can see some corrective move before upticks continue.
GT
moscow mike 16:15 GMT April 26, 2007
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jkt-aye 15:56 GMT April 26, 2007
i think it is too early for our party. Even 1.15 was not printed out yet LOL
Miami OMIL (/;-> 15:59 GMT April 26, 2007
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Short term view eur/usd: This pair has moved into the O/B areas and is due for a correction. The key supports are now awaiting around the 3580-90 and 3510-20 area with the main support still strong around the 3350-60 area. It is still buy on failed dips but a quick sell signal to test the main support could be around the 3510-20 area. I can't see this pair not breaking and closing over the all time high but for now a correction is in order IMHO. Peace and GT
jkt-aye 15:56 GMT April 26, 2007
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usdcad missiles launch when i was sleeping. pips on the pocket. congrats to all "cad musketers".
now what ? ..........just waiting party invitation from Zeus.
Pittsburgh wjs 15:54 GMT April 26, 2007
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zeus, it is nice when a plan comes together and yours was well laid out... launch those rockets...
moscow mike 15:51 GMT April 26, 2007
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lkwd jj 15:44 GMT April 26, 2007
I believe he was never one you mentioned. He was more alive in that cad than 99.999% on this sordid planet.
tokyo ginko 15:49 GMT April 26, 2007
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more usd buying
London NYAM 15:46 GMT April 26, 2007
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ginko// What action?
lkwd jj 15:44 GMT April 26, 2007
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zues gone from cadaver to cadching!! nice one in cad.
tokyo ginko 15:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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oops forgot to consider daylight savings, lol
dc CB 15:35 GMT April 26, 2007
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Dodge
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/speeches/2007/state07-2.html
tokyo ginko 15:19 GMT April 26, 2007
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actions starts an hour from now..
Bodrum OEE 15:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA 14:44 GMT April 26, 2007
What an illustration.. I hope all goes well Zeus. Good day
moscow mike 15:15 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA Zeus 14:07 GMT April 26, 2007
Thanks Zeus. Usage of Mechanics served well.
Salute from the neighbor!
UK Alex 15:03 GMT April 26, 2007
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hk ab 15:01 GMT April 26, 2007
Weaker dollar is helping to boost overseas profits which account for an ever larger percentage of total profits. S&P 500 has done nicely this week.
hk ab 15:01 GMT April 26, 2007
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could it be the CB concerted effort to save usd softly?
Lahore FM 14:56 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA Zeus 14:44 GMT April 26, 2007
fresh successful relaunch of eurcad too,Roger.
Mtl JP 14:55 GMT April 26, 2007
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Trident D-5 at 2x risk:
1) do a "Pyongyang"
2) Patriot missiles at 1.1235, depending of software may (in)correctly identify Trident D-5 as friendlies or not.
Gen dk 14:44 GMT April 26, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
USA Zeus 14:44 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA Zeus 21:57 GMT April 25, 2007
Ever just feel it when the market reaches a pain/complacency threshold?
Ok- launch tubes pressurized and silo doors open. USD/CAD Trident D-5 launch imminent.
Roger that Z-Tower. Trident D-5 launch was successful.
UK Alex 14:41 GMT April 26, 2007
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BOE's Tucker: CPI Expected To Fall Back Quite Sharply
fairfield JC 14:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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What did I say on Monday? Dollar strength across the board and will continure for the coming weeks. NO technical analysis, just a cognition. Just curious how many of you fellow traders listen to your "heart" when trading sometimes or most of the time, rather than technicals?
dc CB 14:33 GMT April 26, 2007
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MPR Canadian
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/mpr/pdf/mprsumapr07.pdf
hong kong seek 14:30 GMT April 26, 2007
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FM--me think 668 is a good buy too...
London NYAM 14:29 GMT April 26, 2007
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Critical turning points for the dollar indicating that the daily chart trends will move in its favour are IMO:
Cable break of 1.9817 11 Apr High
USDJPY break of 119.85 16 Apr high
GBPJPY break of 235.21 19 Apr low
Only in the USDJPY is the result still up for grabs. In the other two trending markets I would say the party is over.
tokyo ginko 14:27 GMT April 26, 2007
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NK future is still a lagger. one may consider to buy for investment hold till 18400-18600 levels
Lahore FM 14:19 GMT April 26, 2007
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Seek buy 670 and 667 for 680.fall was a bit surprising but not much as it came with usd reversing nicely.
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:17 GMT April 26, 2007
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HK Kevin //
just looked at Ashraf Laidi's daily analysis - he notes 1.3570 a base for new 1.37 challenge
also sees risk of GBPUSD to this latest S at 1.9880..
I also like the KISS approach - will try to draw some fibo levels to figure some possible correction levels - however a profit taking is smtg that can't be ruled out...
last week there were some reports of Fib turn dates - it might happen with a week lag... I see weak USD is in favor to US so the LT trend will rule - comments are welcome.
tokyo ginko 14:16 GMT April 26, 2007
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hi Sofia,
thank you for your kinds words.
yah, u are right, ginko means bank in Japanese. If u are in tokyo, give me a buzz, will be happy to take you out for a drink.
am still seeing more upside for the USD today.
GT and GL all.
Sofia Kaprikorn 14:11 GMT April 26, 2007
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tokyo ginko //
long time no see - your imput has been very good..
ginko means bank in Japanese? I saw it by chance on a Yen note..
HK Kevin 14:10 GMT April 26, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 13:29 GMT, sorry for the late reply. I used to leave the screen a while after entering a position.
Agree on your analysis. I try to keep simple mind in trading. This Aisan afternoon, I have a stop sell signal at Cable 1.9980, but haven't followed. For EUR, stop sell at 1.3570 is fine and I try to enter in front of the move this time.
tokyo ginko 14:07 GMT April 26, 2007
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aud/usd lead currency
USA Zeus 14:07 GMT April 26, 2007
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moscow mike 17:37 GMT April 25, 2007
moscow mike 07:40 GMT April 20, 2007
Gold is in the real hot zone on my daily chart and is set for a $40+ correction under 691.
------------------
now fell below daily trend line for the second day and has a good potential to reach 66x
MMM-
Three cheers to you great neighbor- What outstanding performance from the enclave!
London NYAM 14:02 GMT April 26, 2007
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Dow reversing early gains and breaking below open. Dolalr reversing in tandem.
Where is gold? D
hong kong seek 14:00 GMT April 26, 2007
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Lahore FM--pls share your view on gold ?it's falling like no tmr ..
Dallas GEP 13:52 GMT April 26, 2007
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closed half my AUSSIE shorts...rest have stop at 8298
Bangkok bkk 13:52 GMT April 26, 2007
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USD/JPY will probably test 119.70/80 area by tomorrow before consolidation ... and then test above 120 next week
IMHO....
The trend 's clear since April 3, 2007 when it broke above 118.50 and forced AS to reversed position.
Halifax CB 13:44 GMT April 26, 2007
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Zeus - your welcome. I'm glad to see a bit more volatility in USDCAD - better profits on both sides!
London NYAM 13:34 GMT April 26, 2007
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Quite late for CT Chris call at 12:00 GMT (is that with daylight savings? It would have meant buying at 19953 otherwise). But perhaps this will be it off the handle? In the soup for 40 pips or so. Not trading Chris cues but fading in any case.
USA Zeus 13:33 GMT April 26, 2007
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London NYAM 12:44 GMT April 26, 2007
Halifax CB 12:08 GMT April 26, 2007
USD/CAD
TY for kind words. Took some cream off on resting order 1.1210 for + 62.5 piptitos. First slab sliced off now from 1.1137 to keep the tower tall and erect.
Still have same cost 1.11475 on remaining load.
Netherlands Purk- Oh great neighborhood watchman-May the good shepherd bless you. What would our enclave do without such great neighbors as you, MMM and your NN? Yeah as anticipated her majesty had a good lucky sell on blip there.
The great Murcielago never quits.
-Z-
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:29 GMT April 26, 2007
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HK Kevin //
hello, I'm not really good in trading timing - however I have 3 points - just post them for comment:
- the all-time high was reached and no follow-thru
- looking 15min chart we can see smtg like a H&S formation
- it's been 300 pips no turn back ride from 1.13 - 1.3660 - so a profit taking is due I guess (can't really know as never been in the big firms - sure their timeframes are much different) - but as Alimin pointed USDX is making nice reversal (Morning Star)
--of course this whole thing I wrote might prove pure crap.. sorry.
PAR 13:27 GMT April 26, 2007
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Italian factories may have to close down this summer due to lack of electricity caused by drougth . Could cost european tax payers billions .
UK Alex 13:24 GMT April 26, 2007
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Bodrum OEE 06:15 GMT April 26, 2007
You are correct.
RIC fxq 13:21 GMT April 26, 2007
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Ramat Afal SBS 12:59 GMT
oh noes! oh noes!
your post sound and look suspisciously like the late, departed person to whom you referred. rotflol
HK Kevin 13:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 13:11 GMT, me just at 1.3598. need to break 1.3580 first.
Dallas GEP 13:13 GMT April 26, 2007
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6828 short on eur/gbp now
Sofia Kaprikorn 13:11 GMT April 26, 2007
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I got short EURUSD at 1.3591 just before the Claims data.. so will watch if there will be follow through as I thought...
however above 1.3620 I believe we are again in uptrend..
moscow mike 13:10 GMT April 26, 2007
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Ramat Afal SBS 12:59 GMT April 26, 2007
Dont be upset he will come back soon under different name.
madrid mm 13:05 GMT April 26, 2007
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funny and informative
How to Hitch Your Wagon to the Hedge-Fund Stars: Mark Gilbert - April 26 (Bloomberg) -- Now that social arbiter Tom Wolfe has anointed hedge-fund stars the new Masters of the Universe, how can you finagle your underachieving self a seat on the gravy train before it hits the buffers?
That 25th anniversary college-reunion invitation will be sent to your low-rent abode any year now. Do you want to roll up to the gathering in a Ferrari or a Ford? I thought so. Click here
HK Kevin 13:03 GMT April 26, 2007
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HK RF, guess we could see USD/JPY test 120 level. Then, may be 123-125 before 115
Perth Randall El 13:03 GMT April 26, 2007
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Perth Randall El 05:41 GMT April 26, 2007
NZD.USD
===========
Sell .7476 if rise sell again every 50 pips for big move down.
Perth Randall El 05:07 GMT April 26, 2007
texasbp 05:04 GMT April 26, 2007
Randall Time is like how you say Miller Time in Texas. I make good pips yesterday on the buy so today we sell.
Perth Randall El 04:41 GMT April 26, 2007
gbp.usd
=========
Sell now 2.0034
Sell again every 30 pip increase.
==============================================
Ok- Take profits and gains at your pleasure.
cheers
Ramat Afal SBS 12:59 GMT April 26, 2007
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CT cris,
OH NO !
this forum is of no value without you.
please don't pay attention to those who instead of appreciating your so great kindness and talents, are abusing like silly children. please dir reconsider that.
Lahore FM 12:52 GMT April 26, 2007
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NY tim 12:40 GMT April 26, 2007
still see downside but will have to wait for present usd jostle to end.jpy cross unwind would certainly accompany usd upturn.
London AL 12:50 GMT April 26, 2007
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CT Cris 12:43 GMT April 26, 2007
how fortunate that we will be spared finally!
HK Kevin 12:48 GMT April 26, 2007
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Long USD/CAD position last night all closed earlier at 1.1208 and 1.1180
The Netherlands Purk 12:46 GMT April 26, 2007
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CT Cris 12:43 GMT April 26, 2007
Randy will miss ya, dont know about the rest of the forum.
e/j: well that 16250 zone is pretty near now, just play the range put s/l on the right side... I will be ready with shorts when i get home.
London NYAM 12:45 GMT April 26, 2007
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Common Chris its good to have you here. Its not like you have to meet anyone you don't like. :0. And nice call. You have a very interesting system.
The Netherlands Purk 12:44 GMT April 26, 2007
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Well it was 11210... Now lets see if the 11160 will hold in the loonert.
Mr MMM: very good indeed, that keeps the spirit up. Tonight we will take a position again but b.h. not too soon or i will get ya.
London NYAM 12:44 GMT April 26, 2007
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I hope the Zeuster hasnt slept through that gift...
CT Cris 12:43 GMT April 26, 2007
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Geneva DS 12:28 GMT April 26, 2007
CT Chris
====
thks DS , and sorry to inform you that call will be the last,
as I am here in wrong place.
NY tim 12:40 GMT April 26, 2007
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Lahore FM, whats your view on the downside for USD/JPY - TIA
London NYAM 12:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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Kaprikorn// Do you mean that someone has advanced access to the data?! I hope youa re wrong about that. Pre-release panic squaring by shorts is what I thought it was. Do you mena something else?
moscow mike 12:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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Mr Purkinson
Initial positions covered, only tiny left for a free train ticket to clogland if luck will not leave $ LOL. Good trades to you and see you on the other side.
Lahore. I agree that EURCAD was a better decision to built long couple of days ago ;)
Simple chart reading suggests that 1.1210 Shall provide some initial resistance to the loonie.
Good trades both you, kind men
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:33 GMT April 26, 2007
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that initial drop in GBPUSD - wasn't that a frontrunning of the data it will just continue this down.. my 2 cents..
Geneva DS 12:28 GMT April 26, 2007
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CT Chris
Congratulations... this was a great call this morning with your time schedule... so cable needs to rise now till 6 pm? keep up like this... we need this input... thks.
Lahore FM 12:25 GMT April 26, 2007
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moscow mike 12:05 GMT April 26, 2007
yep good dividends.i have been mostly in and out on eurcad rather than usdcad.
GVI john 12:20 GMT April 26, 2007
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Daily Forex Charts...
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
GBP/USD
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
AUD/USD
GBP/JPY
GBP/CHF
USD/CAD
CHF/JPY
Access accurate and free GVI
EUR/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF GBP/USD USD/CAD AUD/USD EUR/JPY
1900GMT 1.3639 118.70 1.2047 2.0019 1.1149 0.8331 161.89
High 1.3667 118.85 1.2060 2.0063 1.1229 0.8349 161.99
Low 1.3622 118.27 1.1995 2.0004 1.1143 0.8264 161.26
04/25/2007
Simple mva basis => 04/25/2007
5 day 1.3607 118.61 1.2059 2.0016 1.1221 0.8330 161.40
10 day 1.3574 118.96 1.2088 1.9974 1.1272 0.8331 161.34
20 day 1.3475 118.82 1.2140 1.9838 1.1400 0.8248 160.04
50 day 1.3319 118.39 1.2189 1.9633 1.1567 0.8043 157.67
100 day 1.3183 119.11 1.2270 1.9613 1.1633 0.7933 157.00
200 day 1.2987 118.07 1.2333 1.9278 1.1451 0.7781 153.35
The Netherlands Purk 12:15 GMT April 26, 2007
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Mr. MMM and the MMM, dont forget to move s/l... otherwise we can start all over again. Tickets are paid for now...
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:14 GMT April 26, 2007
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Makassar Alimin //
nice point - Morning Star formation on USDX...
with the present spot action we might be in a little correction below the all time records...
moscow mike 12:08 GMT April 26, 2007
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Perth Randall El 05:41 GMT April 26, 2007
NZD.USD
===========
Sell .7476 if rise sell again every 50 pips for big move down.
------------
Great calls Randal along with cable shorts!
GT
Halifax CB 12:08 GMT April 26, 2007
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Congrats Zeus -it's looking good for you this morning.First time in awhile my red line has been touched but rather than bailing like I technically should, I think I'll wait to see if it holds and if so, add in. But I hope you've had a chance to reload your money machine for next re-entry in the mid 1.11's :)
Sofia Kaprikorn 12:07 GMT April 26, 2007
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Hopes of a new record high in [EUR/USD] have been dashed again with an overbought market paring back on some longs and trade back under 1.3600. Initial good sized buying out of Holland was the signal for some corrective action, the price lower on completion of a large buy order, and this raised a few eyebrows amongst the Euro laden intraday market. Eur/Usd sales then followed the rumour inspired slump of the Nzd and saw stops tripped in succession to the 1.3599. The emergence of sovereign Usd sellers elsewhere, and Middle East bottom picking in Eur/Usd then turned trade 10-15 ticks higher. A heavy tone persists and whilst record highs still beckon, there are more stops to be had below 1.3580. UK clearer sales have taken trade below 1.3600, with rumours of semi-official demand under the figure now circulating. IGM
moscow mike 12:05 GMT April 26, 2007
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Lahore FM
USDCAD finally pays off great dividends. As well as cable shorts where i was in and out all the time, but it was worthy to keep shorts from overall b/e 20090 and to close 80% at 9930
Bangladesh Wenel 12:03 GMT April 26, 2007
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Still on my eur/usd shorts taken 1,3645
S/l 1,3700 and my T/p is 1,3400
gl
ABHA FXS 11:57 GMT April 26, 2007
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GBPUSD CANT BREAK 1.9924/14
London NYAM 11:53 GMT April 26, 2007
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supports at 1.9880 rather.
Lahore FM 11:53 GMT April 26, 2007
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quite an interesting move on usd.usdchf was first and usdjpy the second indicator.usdcad has joined the fray as well.
CT Cris 11:52 GMT April 26, 2007
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CT Cris 04:31 GMT April 26, 2007
gbp.usd movement
==========
0600 -0700 gmt move up
0700-1200 gmt move down
1200-1800 gmt move up
======1200 gmt is the time to buy .
London NYAM 11:51 GMT April 26, 2007
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Stops below the fib .382 retrace at 19924 got shot to censored. Is there going to be enough pre-release fear to drop below the figure? More support comes in around 1.9980. But for me I think were done for the day.
RIC fxq 11:43 GMT April 26, 2007
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London NYAM 11:35 GMT
agreed, which brings up on point the Fed-speakers have been making all along the way: shortness of supply for skilled labor, that despite the general gloom and doom global outlook for the US economy.
The Netherlands Purk 11:43 GMT April 26, 2007
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Well my plattys high is 111965 in the loonert, so 11193 hit. Guess that Mr. Zeus is counting his money and wants to go buy a new hat...
Expect it to go back or from here or from 11210 dunno exactly. It can be the case that NN returned from great depths and has orders standing out buying all over the place.
Will place all stops above b/e now.
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:40 GMT April 26, 2007
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RIC fxq //
tnx - notice taken.
I have seen this pattern in 15 min charts on majors - it starts like this and goes for a day or two.. will short EURUSD around 1.3610 if seen again..
London NYAM 11:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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That would be GBP/USD pardon.
London NYAM 11:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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Long USDGBP now at 1.9940.
London NYAM 11:35 GMT April 26, 2007
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fxq// Perhaps but the sensitivity to the data, as you said, seems to be increased as we approach the critical levels. Also the weekly average of jobless claims has been turning up and that may be emphasized should this week give it a nudge down.
GBP heading to a rather weak support in the 1.9920s
RIC fxq 11:30 GMT April 26, 2007
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London NYAM 11:14 GMT & Sofia Kaprikorn 11:23 GM
not to quibble but if the mkt reacts strongly to weekly UIC, it would be making mtns out of molehills as this number is extremely volatile and subject to all sorts of weather, seasonal and local vagaries. That said, I wouldn't surprise since traders seem to be reacting to almost any US data, even the second and third tier events like UIC.
ABHA FXS 11:29 GMT April 26, 2007
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LONG GBPUSD 1.9944 FOR 2.0118
London NYAM 11:29 GMT April 26, 2007
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Keep in mind we are bumping on records here and follow through has been slow except on the crosses which are moving more in direction. IMHO.
Makassar Alimin 11:28 GMT April 26, 2007
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completion of morning star formation on usd index today? might be worth watching
Sofia mik 11:28 GMT April 26, 2007
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short chf/jpy from 85
London NYAM 11:27 GMT April 26, 2007
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Kaprikorn/ I meant short dollar positions against all the majors JPY, GBP and EUR. The market has been net short this week. At least up until that sweep, now it may be more balanced with short term specs.
Sofia Kaprikorn 11:23 GMT April 26, 2007
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London NYAM 11:14 // hello
you mean EUR & GBP shorts?
it could be frontrunning now that these initial moves didn't retrace ... looks like those days that a move starts in the late Eu session and just continues thru the US..
London NYAM 11:14 GMT April 26, 2007
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Musings: The upcomming jobless claims figures due to come out in under two hours may have something to do with the unwinding of short positions. Perhaps with the mark self-aware of its short-overhang doesnt want to get caught with a low figure as expectations are mediating around 330k. If we get somthing below 300 the shorts are going to get even more hammered.
GVI john 11:08 GMT April 26, 2007
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GVI Calendar of selected key economic data, central bank meetings, etc....
NYC ML 10:58 GMT April 26, 2007
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thank alot Chris , I shorted at 20055 , exited 19970
great call.
CT Cris 04:31 GMT April 26, 2007
gbp.usd movement
==========
0600 -0700 gmt move up
0700-1200 gmt move down
1200-1800 gmt move up
Sydney ACC 10:55 GMT April 26, 2007
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Dublin Flip 09:24 GMT April 26, 2007
What we have here is one person's interpretation of events. I don't pretend to know what is going on here, I find it difficult enough to understand what's happening closer to home. Its just that if we have worsening property market in Sydney, no one is going to say NSW is going to withdraw from the AUD and adopt its own currency, while our population is greater than NZ, its not an option. For Spain or for that matter any other European country that is a different story. It will always be an option to withdraw.
What is clear is that ECB has a difficult job to mange the various needs of the different countries that have adopted the euro.
Talk of a depression in Spain, or a ERM type collapse, is premature to sat the least when they admit property prices are still rising, although while commencements exceed demand by 200k per annum that will not be the case for long.
Makassar Alimin 10:55 GMT April 26, 2007
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with PAR's willing, usdjpy shall go to 119.70 today
madrid mm 10:53 GMT April 26, 2007
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MADRID – The average mortgage rose to EUR 150,146 – an increase of 11.5 percent compared with the cost the same time a year before, according to figures released on Thursday.
The National Institute of Statistics (INE) said figures showed the average mortgage had also risen by 1.9 percent compared with in January this year.
The average interest paid on mortgages in Spain was 4.41 percent over 26 years with savings banks. With banks, the figure was 4.39 percent over 25 years.
The number of new mortgages which were taken out in February was 153,726 – a 4.36 percent fall compared with the same period the year before.
The capital tied up in mortgages was EUR 27.3 billion – or 10.67 percent more than the year before in February 2006.
Ninety-eight percent of new mortgages were taken out with a variable interest rate. The Euribor, one of the standards used to regulate interest rates on mortgage payments in Spain, was the most commonly used, with 85.9 of mortgages fixed to this.
EFE with Expatica
St. Annaland Bob 10:42 GMT April 26, 2007
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regarding the bigger picture, weak USD may start to wake the untouchables and they will the markets to go towards the place they will take the breath and will adjust the latest developments ... happy trades and off for today!
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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and of course - as I read before somewhere - there might be just some big order that was pushed - since I saw it was USD buying mainly in the majors- and the EUR & GBP crosses just reflected it - not a cross driven move..
or might be just some big players gunning stops
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:26 GMT April 26, 2007
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well just to add to the confusion - here are 2 reports just released on the newswire:
> 1014 GMT [Dow Jones] Before EUR/JPY printed a fresh record high Thursday, BNP Paribas had issued a technical note which looked for a test of resistance between 162.40-65, before a retreat towards 160.95. Well the cross traded to 162.55 and has subsequently declined to 162.20, so has a top now been seen? Looking at daily indicators the bank says these are turning downside and close to giving a bearish signal, while the hourly indicators are signaling resistance.
>1009 GMT [Dow Jones] Cable gaps 25 ticks on the downside, trader says no particular reason evident for the sharp drop. Cable now at 1.9960, a full cent lower on the day, stops are reported below 1.9950.
St. Annaland Bob 10:20 GMT April 26, 2007
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HK RF@ 10:18 GMT April 26, 2007
yes, sometimes the chain of possibilities is too long for small brains like myself and I take 20 pips off the KIWI table and place the stop @ 0.7400
London NYAM 10:20 GMT April 26, 2007
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My bank trader could only come up with Profit taking after EUR failure to breach highs, CPI numbers comming out of Japan tonight and General profit taking on Cable hfinding support at 1.9950 with more strong support at the 19920 area.
Still leaves me cratching but its likely an opportunity to get back in at lower levels. IMHO.
HK RF@ 10:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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.
St. Annaland Bob 10:11 GMT April 26, 2007
Indeed the financial markets in the US have turned into Shinola towers of JPY carry trades.
But look into silver and gold which were prev. used for that purpose of carry trade too.
madrid mm 10:17 GMT April 26, 2007
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Helsinki iw 10:12 GMT April 26, 2007
As well but the rumour was for the dividends of HSBC....
maybe HSBC is mulling a bid for Barclays or RBS 8-)
St. Annaland Bob 10:14 GMT April 26, 2007
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Helsinki iw 10:12 GMT April 26, 2007
Alicia celebrates the news as both will locate the HQ in Amsterdam, smoky banking.
Helsinki iw 10:12 GMT April 26, 2007
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madrid mm 09:52 GMT April 26, 2007
Think Barclays or RBS may be up to buying some euros? 98bil for Amro the latest bid.
St. Annaland Bob 10:11 GMT April 26, 2007
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HK RF@ 10:07 GMT April 26, 2007
lol ... Iranians taking refuge in Iraq as safe heaven during the coming summer?! ... USD bulls need something to divert attention from economics, maybe they will get that
Sofia Kaprikorn 10:09 GMT April 26, 2007
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Players are scratching heads and looking for news items which do not appear to be in place for a wave of [USD] buying. We heard plenty of NZ rumours (a US investment house started the selling and the rumour!) and saw broad Jpy stop tripping. The Yen slide coincided with relatively large Yuan losses also. Asian contacts note Usd/Cny has had its best one-day gain since Aug. Of course, inevitably players are talking of Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd's failure to go on and make new ground. Certainly, these headlines struggled to take out next key levels at 1.3670 and 2.0064/70 (which we previously discussed) and could have been vulnerable to the Usd squeeze. We will refrain from turning overly Usd bullish for now below 81.70/75 area in the Usd Index (200 hour moving average). IGM
HK RF@ 10:07 GMT April 26, 2007
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.
St. Annaland Bob 09:41 GMT April 26, 2007
The Iranian should not botherscattering threats right and left. All is set for them, ready to destroy their nuclear ambitions. THE DIE IS CAST.
The Netherlands Purk 10:05 GMT April 26, 2007
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Well the loonie is going to that 11193 thingy, so i am curious if a certain bottom at 11160 will hold for the longers. I have closed 1/3 of my possie on t/p hit at 111797.... well yeah oa does strange things with target thingies.
Maybe this is the first day of smartness towards the loonie or maybe greed will take over and take it all away, PLOL
London NYAM 10:02 GMT April 26, 2007
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Stopped out in Cable 1.9980. Done some decent technical damage.
St. Annaland Bob 10:00 GMT April 26, 2007
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thanks RF@ ... with that said, looks long KIWI 0.7395/85/75/65/55 to be good bet for 0.7430+++
madrid mm 10:00 GMT April 26, 2007
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FYGeneral I
The central bank has set the yuan central parity rate at 7.7199 to the dollar, compared with the midpoint of 7.7203 set the previous trading day.
The People's Bank of China allows a trading band of 0.3 pct on either side of the midpoint.
HK RF@ 09:59 GMT April 26, 2007
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'
exhastive READ exhaustive
HK RF@ 09:57 GMT April 26, 2007
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Eur/usd 135.50 will look exhastive for the pair on short term
St. Annaland Bob 09:53 GMT April 26, 2007
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Hk RF@ 09:51 GMT April 26, 2007
hi ... means EURUSD set to test 135xx lows area? ... tia
madrid mm 09:52 GMT April 26, 2007
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(Thomson Financial) - Rumours that the UK's biggest bank HSBC is having to buy up to 5 bln stg in dollars in order to meet its dividend commitments, have been supporting the pound above 2 usd, according to analysts.
HSBC, which accounts in dollars, is due to announce its quarterly dividend payment to shareholders on Monday. But UK shareholders have the option to take it in sterling, meaning the bank has to buy a significant sum of pounds with dollars.
'There are rumours that it could be as much as 5 bln stg but we think this is way off the mark,' said Paul Bednarczyk, currency strategist at 4CAST.
Bednarczyk said he estimates that HSBC's total dividend payment would be 4.2 bln usd, and with 30 pct of shareholders being British, the sum is probably closer to just 650 mln stg.
Hk RF@ 09:51 GMT April 26, 2007
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Yen may still rise above 119.50 even touch 120
London NYAM 09:49 GMT April 26, 2007
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Nasty move (for me anyway). GBP almost stopped out and its back over 2.0000 as I type. The demon is back. The reversion of the GBPJPY off resistance at 238.70 area gave sterling a knock. Always fun though. Any news info?
Bodrum OEE 09:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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London 09:10 GMT April 26, 2007
Hello NYAM. Thank you. I think that is right (242). I will adress the lost chart issue later today (and could confirm -if successful how I see it at that time).
Also on this note I would like to make a correction referring back to my post dated below
Bodrum OEE 15:09 GMT February 27, 2007
it should read with the addition in paranthesis
......short YEN (crosses)....
Should I be writing it today I would use a more inclusive language of the opposite possibility (and a kinder tone) without changing the direction I favour (the language was stronger that I would use today)
I apologize and thank you all for understanding
The Netherlands Purk 09:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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Right nice call there from mr. Zeus selling cable on blips... i like the short in e/u there takes the loonie with it.
Space in loonert is all the way up to 11333
hk ab 09:35 GMT April 26, 2007
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short e/j 162.39, u/j 119.25.
Dublin Flip 09:24 GMT April 26, 2007
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My point ACC is that this hasn't anything to do with people blaming the euro and some popular movement for their countries to exit euro. It's like linking road statistics and the rise of popularity of Asian medicine -LOL
Analista Fx 09:21 GMT April 26, 2007
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what happens at 10 gmt to move yen down?
St. Annaland Bob 09:20 GMT April 26, 2007
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NY tim 09:12 GMT April 26, 2007
it's the first attempt for 11920 level this round, playing for seconds/minutes single digit pips.
Sydney ACC 09:16 GMT April 26, 2007
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From the Irish Times:
Spanish property market jitters shake Irish investors
The risk of "a more abrupt slowdown" will occupy the minds of investors in both the Spanish and Irish property markets, it was claimed yesterday, as the steep drops in the value of Spanish real estate companies on Tuesday continued to have knock-on effects on the Irish Stock Exchange.
http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/finance/2007/0426/1177280311509.html
Makassar Alimin 09:15 GMT April 26, 2007
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well done PAR, you are yen god! when PAR buys we follow ;)
madrid mm 09:14 GMT April 26, 2007
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PAR 09:11 GMT April 26, 2007
yes tey are very good at talking aren t they ? 8-)
NY tim 09:12 GMT April 26, 2007
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St. Annaland Bob 09:10 GMT April 26, 2007
whats your time frame and TP pls
PAR 09:11 GMT April 26, 2007
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EURJPY at new record high . Could be discussed during next G7 meeting . Lol.
London NYAM 09:10 GMT April 26, 2007
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Bodrum OEE// Welcome back.
GBPJPY target on my extensions first stop 239.52 with 238.77 offering some resistance as well as 239.26 (=/-5 pips). Regards. (M/T it may get to 242 area. I know its a way off.)
St. Annaland Bob 09:10 GMT April 26, 2007
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USDJPY initial short taken @ 11919 playing with 19 pips intervals.
Sydney ACC 09:07 GMT April 26, 2007
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Dublin Flip 08:56 GMT April 26, 2007
Read the articles it's just what has been published i don't warrant what is contained therein.
Dublin Flip 08:56 GMT April 26, 2007
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Re ACC’s
“Irish have joined the chorus criticising the ECB over interest rate increases…..
Two comments that Spain and Ireland may need to leave the euro and parallels drawn with the UK’s ERM crisis in 1992.”
I don't know where you get your info but I haven't heard one peep about this. The Irish property market has paused before the impending election amid speculation stamp duty will be reduced but the market and economy hasn't imploded. e.g. I sold my house a week ago above the guide price after being on the market for only 3weeks.
You have to remember many of the (predominately British) euro-sceptics have been writing the same rubbish for 10 years now. Like a broken clock they will eventually be correct that Ireland and Spain slow down. Housing construction has slowed because approvals have been reigned in till infrastructure catches up while Ireland's population has gone from 3 to 4 million (as opposed to most of old europe) One has to remember the industrial revolution largely passed Ireland by and much of what we take for granted in most countries in Europe was built up over hundereds oof years so much of the construction including infrastructure is because it was so far behind. Alot of the capital growth is because it is off a low base i.e. Irish real estate was undervalued for a long time. No one is talking about leaving the Euro. On the contrary, if ireland had it would have had double the intrest rates the past 10years. That would be popular??
St. Annaland Bob 08:42 GMT April 26, 2007
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China's achievements are greater than most can imagine when the drop in JPY taken into account. history shows that Japan has it's own manners to treat gravity and that makes the business harder to play but also more is possible to gain. the better memory knows that the NIKKEI drop from 40K to below 10K makes top or bottom picking with Japan related instruments second only to impossible. with all that said, JPY is still the best tool for day traders.
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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longed EURJPY at 162.31 - will be funny if again bought on top..
Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 08:37 GMT April 26, 2007
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warning for eur/jpy when touch arround 162.75.
I think nice battle there.
I am ready for this battle with my all "passengers" there.
u can buy now and hold till touch 162.75 and then meet us there (for the battle there?).
St. Annaland Bob 08:30 GMT April 26, 2007
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USDJPY holds great ocean of stops above 11950 while shorts target move well below 11800 still this week.
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:21 GMT April 26, 2007
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EURJPY - on 4 hour chart is a clear breakout of triangle formation - the heigth of the base is ab 200 pips from 160 to 162 - so the breakout at around 161.50 targets 163.50..
> fits with the JPM view cited below
Indonesia-solo Raden_Mas 08:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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wait...wait !!!! need your attention now !!!!
eur/jpy about top tgt 162.75 and then go to the South with so sharply.
madrid mm 08:09 GMT April 26, 2007
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FWIW , the more i trade the more i learn....You can look at trend, price pattern, momentum, and all kinds of other valid factors, but I think the risk overrides everything else. It doesn''t matter how great the profit potential is ... If I can''t afford the risk I have no business taking the trade.
Bodrum OEE 08:09 GMT April 26, 2007
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London NYAM 07:40 GMT April 26, 2007
I second this view if 238.30 is taken-over. I will not be able to give an estimate target (in my extremely limited capacity anyway) since my chart is erased due to a corrupt file at the host side. Possibly mid 239's. This is a technical view and not fundamental, without the support of which I prefer not to transact. Regards
Melbourne Qindex 08:04 GMT April 26, 2007
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Melbourne Qindex 01:09 GMT April 26, 2007
USD/CAD : the moving targeting range for today is 1.1131 - 1.1167.
Melbourne Qindex 00:42 GMT April 26, 2007
USD/CAD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1231. Speculative selling pressure have increased when the market was able to penetrate through barriers at 1.1148 and 1.1179. The next major targeting range is 1.0979 -1.1018. My daily directional indicator (1.1131 - [1.1134] - 1.1241*) suggests that the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1131. My weekly cycle indicates that the next quantized level is 1.1096 (1.1020*, 1.1096*, 1.1172* and 1.1249* are separated by a constant value of around 76 pips which is the weekly cycle rhythm).
hk ab 08:04 GMT April 26, 2007
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dlr/jpy is reaching the end of its wedge soon. and if the broad SHS pattern in daily materialize, the fall will be furious. Now, start shorting 119 with every 30 pips up interval and come back in June will give you the answer GL and DYOD.
Sofia Kaprikorn 08:03 GMT April 26, 2007
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0740 GMT [Dow Jones] JPY crosses could get even more interesting Thursday, says JP Morgan. Recent price action suggests EUR/JPY will break up through the previous highs around 162.50, opening risk towards 163.50 and 164.00. For EUR/CHF, which has rallied back toward its previous highs (1.6465), it's only likely a matter of time before a break toward 1.65 is seen. EUR/JPY now trades at 162.16, EUR/CHF at 1.6436.
cm c now working..
madrid mm 08:01 GMT April 26, 2007
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Sydney ACC 07:46 GMT April 26, 2007
you mean the blaming game ? it is not me it is Him/her ?
8-)
« La critique est aisée, mais l'art est difficile » Philippe Néricault, roughthly translated as in , it is easy to criticise but more difficult to do...
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:58 GMT April 26, 2007
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The Netherlands Purk 06:39 //
hi there... EURJPY - I shorted it 161.81 as all looked prone for reversal... but it is near all time highs now and I really think "they" will push it even further..
have to call the dealing desk to reverse the trade the platform is down..
Sydney ACC 07:46 GMT April 26, 2007
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A couple of articles in today’s Telegraph about the worsening situation in Spain with regard to property stocks and the residential property market. There’s also another article where the Irish have joined the chorus criticising the ECB over interest rate increases.
Two comments that Spain and Ireland may need to leave the euro and parallels drawn with the UK’s ERM crisis in 1992.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/04/25/cnspain25.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
The song is getting louder as more members join the chorus.
Plovdiv Gotin 07:43 GMT April 26, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 07:29 GMT April 26, 2007
Yes
London NYAM 07:40 GMT April 26, 2007
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gbpjpy: next few hours dragged down by the tightening ranges in the jpy. However an upside breakout in GBP is becoming very likely (although i tried to call it early yesterday it is now building yet another sub degree wave 1). That breakout should bouy GBPJPY above 239.00
Edi Geo 07:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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Sofia..yes
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:32 GMT April 26, 2007
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no - cmcmarket.s
London SEC 07:31 GMT April 26, 2007
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Sofia Kaprikorn 07:29 GMT April 26, 2007
you mean R/E/F/C/O ][, right?
Sofia Kaprikorn 07:29 GMT April 26, 2007
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anyone having problems login to c m .c?
even their web page is down..
The Netherlands Purk 07:29 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA Zeus 07:02 GMT April 26, 2007
Ah there you are, guess you are going to sleep hu? You know for which people sleep is......
MMM and the MMM is seen in Siberia seeking empty vodka bottles...
Syd 07:24 GMT April 26, 2007
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The Swiss franc may well prove more resilient now than it has over the last few weeks.
On the domestic front, economic growth could show signs of recovery, despite recent suggestions from the Swiss National Bank that the need for higher interest rates isn't so great.
And on the international front, a renewed interest in carry trades may be less aggressive than anticipated - especially given the sharp selloff in the Spanish property sector.
Much of the earlier boom in the Spanish market had been funded by low-yielding carry loans in the franc and yen. "In the case of real estate falling into negative equity, 'real estate carry trade' would be at risk," noted Hans Redeker, head of global foreign exchange strategy at BNP Paribas in London.
Syd 07:20 GMT April 26, 2007
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The CHF could prove more resilient than of late. Despite suggestions from the Swiss National Bank that the need for rate hikes isn't so great, economic growth could well show signs of recovery. Meanwhile, interest in carry trades could prove less aggressive, especially after developments like the selloff in the Spanish property market.
Gen dk 07:12 GMT April 26, 2007
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Trading Signals Updated:
CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information
madrid mm 07:12 GMT April 26, 2007
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this 119 lvl usd/yen is well defended so far and have not be able to break it convincingly ince april 18th fwiw ... Altough they just went over the 1h 200 SMA and still above the 200sma on the 3h chart...
How s that for tech pep talk , huh ? LOL 8-)
USA Zeus 07:06 GMT April 26, 2007
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Tower is tall and strong. Will leave it as is for now wiith add'l traps set.
USA Zeus 07:02 GMT April 26, 2007
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Covered a little more @ 1.1161 for +13.5 teenies- Just enough to make them go Ape*schitt again.
Position is still very heavy.
The Netherlands Purk 06:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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Ah the e/j is finally hitting the 16220-30 zone again. It came a long way so dont think they will give up that easily. So it might be a good idea to short in to the second zone: above the 16250... i will tell when and you might see eaten or have 20 piptitos.
Bangkok bkk 06:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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Bodrum OEE 06:19 GMT April 26, 2007
Thank you for your kind words.
GL. & GT.
madrid mm 06:37 GMT April 26, 2007
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talks of 118.20-119.20 DNT options, said to be Chinese/Asian keeping it in range.
madrid mm 06:22 GMT April 26, 2007
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Yuan Falls on Lower Reference Rate, Drop in Won, Taiwan Dollar
By Christina Soon
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- China's yuan dropped after the central bank fixed the reference rate at a weaker level than yesterday's close, signaling it may want the exchange rate to fall along with other Asian currencies.Click here
Jeddah abb 06:20 GMT April 26, 2007
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Bangkok bkk 06:12 GMT April 26, 2007
thank you
Bodrum OEE 06:19 GMT April 26, 2007
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Bangkok
BKK, welcome back (I didnot see your posts for a while). I hope all is well. Regards
Bodrum OEE 06:15 GMT April 26, 2007
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UK Alex 13:06 GMT April 25, 2007
Alex, briefly back and would like to thank you for kind response of yesterday. I didnot see it. What I understand is that there is a different forum than this one called GVI. Is this correct? Good day.
Bangkok bkk 06:12 GMT April 26, 2007
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Jeddah abb 05:40 GMT April 26, 2007
USD/JPY consolidate between 118.25 - 119.25 range
today - tomorrow.
IMHO.
madrid mm 06:10 GMT April 26, 2007
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Highlights
RBNZ raises Official Cash Rate by 25bps to 7.75%.
RBNZ Gov Alan Bollard says NZD at exceptionally and unjustifiably high levels. Domestic inflation showing signs of acceleration, rate hike aimed at keepinginflation within target band. Domestic demand continuing to expand strongly.
USD hit record lows of 78.99 against a Fed trade-weighted basket of major currencies.
BoE Financial Stability Report says risk-taking has made UK financial system more vulnerable to shocks.
Kyodo: PM Shinzo Abe departed Thursday for the US, where he is expected to reaffirm with Pres George W Bush strengthening the bilateral security alliance and cooperation in dealing with North Korea.
NKS: With China becoming Japan's largest trading partner, the BoJ can ill afford to overlook the country as a major factor in its monetary policy. Trade between Japan and China excl HK came to Y25.4trn in fiscal 2006, topping the Japan-U.S. balance for the first time since the end of World War II.
China's internal and external demand continues to grow unabated. In recent meetings of the BOJ's monetary policy board, discussions about the Chinese economy have often gone on for nearly 10 minutes, approaching the roughly 15 minutes usually taken for deliberations on the U.S. economy.
The IMF is more closely monitoring the impact of yen carry trades on markets in developing countries and may raise the issue in annual talks with some countries, Dow Jones.
China's National Social Security Fund Vice Chairman Gao Xiqing says the Fund is reducing its exposure to domestic equities as it is concerned the strong rally in the markets has lasted too long.- Reuters.
Quiet markets, with more action in Kiwi, after it rallied from 0.7435 to near highs of 0.7489 on RBNZ 25bps hike to 7.75%, then sold as RBNZ Governor Bollard warned that NZD is at exceptionally high levels, and at the same time leaving out warning of further rate hikes.
NZD/USD then recovered again as funds buy on dips, with bids at 0.7400-20, while talks of options related offers ahead of 0.7500 handle.
On majors, USD/JPY, Cross/JPY in broad range, with USD/JPY, USD/ majors and Cross/JPY having various Spot Value dates ranging from 30 April, 1 and 2 May given the Golden Week and May Day holidays.
USD/JPY rose initially on talks of good Japanese toushin, investment trust demand, said >$1-2bln, and fixing demand ahead of Golden Week, but topside seen running into Japanese exporters and US funds selling, and options related selling from China, talks of 118.20-119.20 DNT options, said to be Chinese/Asian keeping it in range.
EUR still off its all time highs of 1.3667 seen yesterday, with talks of good options related offers and Asian/ China offers ahead of 1.3670 triggers and more at 1.3700.
EUR/JPY steady, with offers at 162.00-10 capping topside, while still talks of interest from Japanese investrors, toushin buying on dips at 161 lows.
GBP remains in demand, with talks of real money, sovereign, East Europeans, Asian, Russian demand on dips around 2.0000, while good offers still capping ahead of 2.0100. Focus on BoE MPC Paul Tucker comments. AUD/USD finding bids at 0.83 lows again.
Nikkei firmer +218pts or 1.27% at 17,454. JGBs lower, eye BoJ meet, report tom. 10-yr yield +0.005% at 1.650%.
Asian FX range: USD/JPY 118.54/118.71, EUR/USD 1.3637/1.3652, GBP/USD 2.0014/2.0054, USD/CHF 1.2038/1.2058, AUD/USD 0.8330/0.8355, NZD/USD 0.7434/0.7486.
madrid mm 06:08 GMT April 26, 2007
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JAPAN'S prime minister, Shinzo Abe, makes an official trip to America. His predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, had a sour relationship with China and a sweet one with America, but Mr Abe appears, at first glance, to be shifting things around. He has managed to improve ties with China considerably in the past few months, while a row over Japan’s war-time use of comfort women, which Mr Abe clumsily denied involved coercion, has put a strain on the Japanese-American relationship.… FX effect maybe....
madrid mm 06:00 GMT April 26, 2007
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China's economy-Breathing fire-Roaring too fast for comfortClick here
madrid mm 05:58 GMT April 26, 2007
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Tackling climate change-Hot topic-China may become the world's single biggest polluter sooner than you thinkClick here
The Netherlands Purk 05:52 GMT April 26, 2007
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Apeschitt?
Some people really dont know what they are saying, that keeps a smile on my face. It is good to know that more and more people take there mind of trading and go for people who are actually trading...
Well now, the loon did not hot 30 but 36 my platty, so today i am expecting some 11193. If one care to take a look to all zones you saw that like 11144 was a nice one (as was 11244) for a bounce. After the 11193 who knows what happens, i might even throw in a short to bug...
Perth Randall El 05:41 GMT April 26, 2007
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NZD.USD
===========
Sell .7476 if rise sell again every 50 pips for big move down.
madrid mm 05:41 GMT April 26, 2007
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China's Protein Gap Will Stoke Global Inflation: Andy Mukherjee
By Andy Mukherjee
April 26 (Bloomberg) -- The ``tortilla crisis'' that shook Mexico in January may not have been a flash in the pan.
If Jing Ulrich, the Hong Kong-based chairwoman of China equities at JPMorgan Chase & Co., is correct, everything from beer to steak might just become more expensive globally.
Ulrich's case is built around a statistic and an observation: It takes 7 kilograms (15 pounds) of grain to produce 1 kilo of beef; and ``Chinese people are eating more meat as consumer wealth increases,'' she says.Click here
Jeddah abb 05:40 GMT April 26, 2007
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Bangkok bkk your view for usd/jpy for today and tomorrow please
madrid mm 05:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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Syd 03:38 GMT April 26, 2007
timing is everything !
madrid mm 05:33 GMT April 26, 2007
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the last quote applied to the KIWI. I can go up ! I can go even higher !!! Oil man must be smilling on his yacht 8-)
madrid mm 05:31 GMT April 26, 2007
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gm fx Jedi,
"Those are my principles. If you don't like them I have others."
Groucho Marx
Bangkok bkk 05:08 GMT April 26, 2007
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Very thin trading condition so far this month...
The market is a chaotic game, and even the best shark/whale can fail and not earn money one month.
GL. & GT.
Perth Randall El 05:07 GMT April 26, 2007
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texasbp 05:04 GMT April 26, 2007
Randall Time is like how you say Miller Time in Texas. I make good pips yesterday on the buy so today we sell.
texasbp 05:04 GMT April 26, 2007
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wow .. it is randall time again....
keep selling gbp....
be careful of the up move there
Bodrum OEE 04:51 GMT April 26, 2007
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AZUSA 15:29 GMT April 25, 2007
Dear Ed, hello….
I hope the following constitutes an adequate response to your inquiry (if not apologies).
All (countries) have dynamics of own thereby both valuations thus correlations can be flawed.
Needless to say market agrees or disagrees with the alternative view (rather, an analysis study in continuum, in this case).
First two sample cases in point are USD/JPY and EUR/JPY, former undervalued and the latter overvalued, both in high proportions.
GBP the most promising yet equally vulnerable (thereby, risky) currency is overvalued against CHF. Whereas regarding Euro, a currency that has positive and negative value pace acceleration characteristics, almost in balance (i.e. where it should be now) though with a marginal upside potential.
(My) native, TRY (new Turkish Lira), another high risk-reward one, meanwhile is overvalued against JPY, however vice versa on USD.
I leave now with best of wishes to you and others who make this forum a pleasant one in vocal or silent expression.
On that note referring back to another point in your post (AZUSA 4x-ed 02:34 GMT April 20, 2007) I humbly believe frustration is among first signs of emergence of a view to be formed or even better, reformed.
Should I get depressed?
Kind regards
Perth Randall El 04:41 GMT April 26, 2007
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gbp.usd
=========
Sell now 2.0034
Sell again every 30 pip increase.
CT Cris 04:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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gbp.usd
=====
buy then exit...wait to decline then buy again.
CT Cris 04:31 GMT April 26, 2007
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gbp.usd movement
==========
0600 -0700 gmt move up
0700-1200 gmt move down
1200-1800 gmt move up
Mtl JP 03:47 GMT April 26, 2007
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Syd 02:48 / sounds like a gentle reminder of the defintion of ownership - "title passes upon last and full payment".
The "could wipe billions of pounds off the balance sheets" seems a weenie bit speculative, if only for the "could" word.
Syd 03:44 GMT April 26, 2007
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Business confidence in New Zealand declined for the second straight month in April, as businesses reacted to the first of two quick-fire rate hikes, although key growth gauges such as firms' own activity expectations remained solid, a survey published Thursday showed.
A net 19% of businesses surveyed expect business conditions to worsen over the next 12 months, well above a net 12.5% in March, according to the National Bank of New Zealand's Business Outlook survey.
Net confidence is defined as the number of optimists minus pessimists.
Firms' pricing intentions and inflation expectations remain elevated.
The survey comes as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand earlier Thursday raised the official interest rate for the second time in six weeks, by 25 basis points to 7.75%, in a bid to tame inflationary pressures emanating from a resilient domestic economy.
However, the business outlook survey, taken after the first rate hike March 8, shows that domestic-oriented businesses "continue to thumb their noses at higher interest rates," National Bank said in an accompanying statement - with both retailers and the construction sector showing an uptick in confidence in regard to their own businesses.
Syd 03:41 GMT April 26, 2007
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Dow Jones technical analysis shows NZD/USD trading above uptrend support line from March 8 low of 0.6750, now at 0.7420, any breach would tilt technical bias toward bearish, targeting 0.7309 (23.6% Fibonacci correction of advance from March 6 low of 0.6715 to April 18 peak at 0.7492), then 0.7195 (38.2% correction). Daily MACD indicator looks poised to stage negative crossover against its exponential moving average, which would signal NZD/USD sell.
Syd 03:39 GMT April 26, 2007
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NZ F&P Appliances: Relocation To Occur Over Next 12-Months
Syd 03:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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Brendon O'Donovan Westpac Wellington says on CNBC when the Kiwi drops it will be by 10 big figures , can see another rate hike in September unless the one today goes in some way to cool down the housing market.
hk ab 03:26 GMT April 26, 2007
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anyone wants to short gbp? zeus, I may short gbp on some blips.
LKWD JJ 02:49 GMT April 26, 2007
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NYC beyond_destiny 22:59 GMT April 25, 2007
The spread of Kiwi is widened to 10 pip on my platform. Does anyone else experience the same?
see em see has a 5pip spread nzdusd.
Syd 02:48 GMT April 26, 2007
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Repossessions 'to double' if interest rates go up again
The number of homes repossessed could more than double if interest rates rise next month, a report has warned.
More than 115 families a day will lose their homes because they cannot afford soaring mortgage costs and other debts, it said.
This would mean repossessions rose from 17,000 a year to almost 43,000 in 2009.
However, if rates rise more sharply from
5.25 per cent today to 6.25 per cent, Dr Blake forecasts 55,000 repossessions in two years' time. A typical mortgage taken out today is just more than £150,000, the highest since records began.
A "severe" crisis in household finances could wipe billions of pounds off the balance sheets of the major banks, the Bank of England added. censoredLINK
Syd 02:40 GMT April 26, 2007
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U.S. manufacturing executives' optimism for the global economy rose in the first quarter from an already high level, even as their outlook for the domestic economy slipped, according to a survey released Wednesday.
Some 83% of industrial manufacturers are optimistic about the future of the world economy over the next 12 months, up from 69% in the final quarter of 2006, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' "Manufacturing Barometer." Optimism for the U.S. economy fell to 57% from 64%. Telephone interviews were conducted for the quarterly survey between Feb. 5 and April 13.
Other sentiments were better or stable. Some 85% of the executives interviewed expect revenues to grow over the next 12 months, unchanged from the previous survey. On average, however, those expecting revenue growth foresee a slightly faster rate of growth than before. Also, more executives plan to make major new investments and add new workers than three months earlier.
Syd 02:38 GMT April 26, 2007
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Warning contained in RBNZ statement earlier that exchange rate now at levels that both exceptional by historical standards, and unjustified on basis of medium-term fundamentals "looks deliberately employed to warn the markets on the risks of FX intervention", says UBS currency strategist Ashley Davies, though doesn't expect intervention in short term. "It would be difficult to justify deliberately pushing the currency weaker when the central bank is still concerned with inflationary pressure. For now the NZD remains a buy-on-dips currency
USA Zeus 02:18 GMT April 26, 2007
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Mtl JP 17:35 GMT April 25, 2007
Loon will start towards the surface once his nutz (now like ballast) get rippedoff by the deepsea croccodiles.
The great Murcielago never quits. After it stomps the nutz out of the loon it will look like the supercrocs chewed it up and spat it out.
USA Zeus 02:16 GMT April 26, 2007
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GBP/USD failure to print 2.0095 could lead to a decent reaction down. Oil may be forming a ST double top. USD/CAD enters the third daily bar of a hellfire reaction pattern- ever increasing the chances for an upside reaction. Let's see....
Syd 02:10 GMT April 26, 2007
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Australia's Labor To Create New Industrial Relations Body
Rudd, elected opposition leader last December, has also promised to get rid of Australian Workplace Agreements, individual labor contracts introduced by Prime Minister John Howard's government and used extensively in the booming mining sector.
The Liberal-National government, trailing Labor in public opinion polls, has warned the opposition's industrial relations policies will damage the economy, in its 16th year of economic growth.
Business groups were also wary of Labor's new industrial relations policy, which requires the endorsement of the party machine at a national conference in Sydney this weekend.
"This new super agency is part of an overall plan to increase industrial relations regulation and impose compulsory collective bargaining on workplaces," said Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Chief Executive Peter Hendy said in a statement.
"It would be a backward step for Australia." Prime Minister John Howard said the policy would give Labor an opportunity to increase the power of the unions, Labor's traditional support base, by appointing unionists to the new body.
Rudd said the new body would set up a "fair and independent umpire" to replace the "alphabet soup of organizations" that regulate Australia's current industrial relations regime.
Syd 01:41 GMT April 26, 2007
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The Australian housing industry appears to be struggling in the face of higher interest rates with industry figures Thursday showing new home sales were steady in March compared with February.
Housing Industry Association data show that sales were unchanged at 8,191 dwellings in March. The HIA data also showed new home sales in the first quarter of this year fell 16% year on year.
The slump follows three interest rate increases in 2006 which raised the borrowing costs for home buyers.
However, financial markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep rates on hold for the time being after signs that inflation eased considerably during the past six months.
Private detached house sales rose 0.2% on month while sales of multi-units fell 2.0%, the HIA said in a statement.
HIA chief economist Harley Dale said any upward momentum in new home sales clearly stalled in March
Higher levels of buyer interest traditionally found in the early months of the year are falling away in 2007 due to the large gap between the desire for home ownership and affordability, Dale said.
USA Zeus 01:28 GMT April 26, 2007
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Hit the 11155's to lighten the load for + 7.5 teenies.
Syd 01:19 GMT April 26, 2007
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China Econ Planner: Need To Prevent Economy From Overheating
hk ab 01:09 GMT April 26, 2007
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cad could rebound close to 1.1191 again but the down momentum is still strong, take care.
Melbourne Qindex 01:09 GMT April 26, 2007
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USD/CAD : the moving targeting range for today is 1.1131 - 1.1167.
USA BAY 00:48 GMT April 26, 2007
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nj jf,
TRUE.
nj jf 00:46 GMT April 26, 2007
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bay ...... think sometimes its taken personally when i dont think at times it meant that way.
Melbourne Qindex 00:42 GMT April 26, 2007
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USD/CAD : The market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1231. Speculative selling pressure have increased when the market was able to penetrate through barriers at 1.1148 and 1.1179. The next major targeting range is 1.0979 -1.1018. My daily directional indicator (1.1131 - [1.1134] - 1.1241*) suggests that the market is under pressure when it is trading below 1.1131. My weekly cycle indicates that the next quantized level is 1.1096 (1.1020*, 1.1096*, 1.1172* and 1.1249* are separated by a constant value of around 76 pips which is the weekly cycle rhythm).
Melbourne Qindex 07:42 GMT April 25, 2007
USD/CAD : The current expected trading ranges from my weekly cycle are as follow :- ... 1.0991 // 1.1020* - 1.1058 - 1.1077 - 1.1096* - [1.1134] - 1.1172* - 1.1191 - 1.1211 - 1.1249* // 1.1277 ...
USA BAY 00:34 GMT April 26, 2007
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ATLANTA SOUTH,
Thanks south, Have a great trading day. GT/GL
Syd 00:32 GMT April 26, 2007
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Weak NZ Exports Masked By Robust Commodities -GS
0028 GMT [Dow Jones] Composition of NZ March trade data continues to suggest weakness in export volumes is being masked by rising commodity prices, with import demand being fueled by NZD appreciation, says Goldman Sachs JBWere senior economist Shamubeel Eaqub; data add some downside risk to own view of flat net exports contribution for 1Q GDP, but says there's considerable uncertainty with spot and realised export price movement. "We expect the external sector to drag on growth and the current account deficit to widen from 2H07."
Atlanta South 00:29 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA BAY
Ref 00:26/ You make a great point & I agree 100%. I value
your view & comments, so keep them coming. GT
Atlanta South 00:26 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA Zeus
Tks Zeus. Lately I'm not hitting many, but I just keep trying.
GT
USA BAY 00:26 GMT April 26, 2007
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ATLANTA SOUTH/USA ZEUS,
There is nothing wrong in asking someone why they choose to trade long or short. I do ask that just to clarify why one is long or short on certain pairs. Sometimes you may feel that it is alright to short a pair but to someone else they may have another point of view as why they choose to long based on technical view points and that may prompt us to view the trade again. We do have our differences sometimes based different technical interpretations. What I dislike in this forum is personal attacks and ridicule someone on their trade. As long as the criticism is constructive it should always be welcome. GT/GL
USA Zeus 00:22 GMT April 26, 2007
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Atlanta South 00:14 GMT April 26, 2007
Southy- You deserve kudos for your great call!
In no way did/do I take your comments in any way personal. As for hits and misses I must say you really hit it. Now that you are out my chances of hitting look brighter! If not, just a miss like any other.
BTW- Do appreciate reading your posts. Insightful and respected. Keep 'em coming. :-)
Have a trap set for that 1.1117 level if it shows.
Z out for now.censored
Atlanta South 00:14 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA Zeus
Ref 23:38//My post are in no way directed @ you & I think you
know that as I fully respect you & your trading ability. This is
the very reason I post so little especially levels or target levels
as there is always going to be someone that will make light of
a miss on hitting those targets. Zeus your respected on this
forum, but there will always be those who have just got to
point out a miss when it happens. I would rather not post
that to offend anyone on this forum especially you my freind.
USA Zeus 00:07 GMT April 26, 2007
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USA BAY-
Agree. No need to justify. Just a fun place to share trades, ideas etc. Have always been one to share or explain when asked. However the more that is exposed in the transparency/honesty dept etc the more the vulchers and rats gather and try to chew on it. When they have nothing to sink their teeth into they go apeschitt and spoof and taunt. This place has seen that type of predictable behavior far too much and prevents greater dialogues for many IMO.
Have a great day trading!
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